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Dr. Bob
Rotation #225-226 UNDER (38 1/2) Oakland at Denver 2-Stars UNDER 38 or higher.
2-Star UNDER
**UNDER - DENVER (-9.5) 19 Oakland 12
01:15 PM Pacific, 16-Sep-07
Oakland played pretty well offensively last week against a bad Lions’ defense, but the Raiders will have a tougher time against a Denver defense with two great cornerbacks. Daunte Culpepper takes over for an injured Josh McCown, but I rated those two quarterbacks the same heading into the season. Denver’s offense moved the ball well last week in Buffalo while the Raiders’ defense was abused by the Lions. Those results may reverse this week as the Broncos have averaged 5.3 yards per play or less in 5 of Jay Cutler’s 6 career starts and Oakland is still a good defensive team regardless of what happened last week. In fact, Oakland’s bad defensive effort in week 1 sets them up in a solid 102-50-5 UNDER situation this week and the Raiders have still gone Under in 11 of their last 13 games. My ratings predict a total of 38 ½ points, so the line is fair, and I’ll go UNDER 38 points or higher in a 2-Star Best Bet. I’ll also lean with Oakland plus the points, as my ratings favor Denver by just 7 ½ points and the Broncos are only 5-21 ATS under coach Shanahan when favored by more than 5 points in the regular season following a victory.
Strong Opinion
San Francisco 23 ST. LOUIS (-3.0) 21
10:00 AM Pacific, 16-Sep-07
The 49ers didn’t play well offensively last week, but their new defense looks very good. San Francisco held a decent Arizona attack to just 3.9 yards per play and only 3.4 yards per pass play as All-Pro cornerbacks Nate Clements and Walt Harris shut down the Cardinals receiving tandem while rookie LB Patrick Willis logged 11 tackles in his debut. San Francisco rebuilt their defense in the off-season and it looks like a better than average unit. The Rams offense is in trouble without big LT Orlando Pace protecting Marc Bulger and Pace appears to be out for the season after getting hurt last week. Pace missed some time last season and Rams’ quarterback Marc Bulger went from averaging 6.9 yards per pass play in 8 games with Pace protecting his back to just 5.6 yppp in the final 8 games of the season without Pace. Bulger averaged just 3.8 yppp last week and he’ll have a tough time finding open receivers this week against one of the best sets of corners in the league. The Rams’ defense was horrible last week against both the run (4.9 ypr) and the pass (7.4 yppp), so expect the 49ers to look much better offensively this week. My ratings favor St. Louis by just 1 point and the Rams are just 6-15-1 ATS the last 3 seasons as a favorite of 3 points or more, including 1-4-1 ATS last season in coach Linehan’s first year. San Francisco applies to a solid 52-20-1 statistical match- up indicator that is 10-1 ATS in week 2. I’ll consider San Francisco a Strong Opinion at +3 points or more.
Strong Opinion
ARIZONA 23 Seattle (-3.0) 21
01:05 PM Pacific, 16-Sep-07
Arizona had a tough time throwing the ball against the 49ers but their defense looked very good and the offensive is likely to bounce back with a better effort. Seattle looked better than I expected against the Bucs, but my ratings only favor the Seahawks by 2 points in this game. Arizona applies to a solid 187-106-10 ATS statistical indicator and that is certainly enough to get me favoring the upset. I’ll consider Arizona a Strong Opinion at +1 or more and I’d make Arizona a 2-Star Best Bet at +3 ½ points or more (-115 odds or better).
Strong Opinion
Kansas City 14 CHICAGO (-12.0) 20
01:15 PM Pacific, 16-Sep-07
Chicago is just 1-4 ATS as a favorite of more than 10 points under coach Lovie Smith and the Bears apply to a negative 32-72-3 ATS game 2 situation. Kansas City, meanwhile, applies to a solid 69-23-1 ATS situation. My ratings favor Chicago by 12 points, so the line is fair, but I’m going to resist making the Chiefs a Best Bet since the Bears are a perfect 5-0 ATS the week following a loss the last 2 seasons. That team trend is not nearly enough to cancel out the general situations so I’ll consider Kansas City a Strong Opinion at +11 points or more and I’d take KC in a 2-Star Best Bet at +13 points or more.
Strong Opinion
NY Jets 13 BALTIMORE (-10.0) 19
01:15 PM Pacific, 16-Sep-07
Both teams will likely be without their starting quarterbacks, as Baltimore’s Steve McNair is expected to miss with groin injury while the Jets’ Chad Pennington is doubtful with an ankle sprain. Baltimore has the more experienced backup in Kyle Boller and Boller looked very good off the bench last season (9.8 yards per pass play on 58 pass plays) and was improving as starter before McNair replaced him last season. Kellen Clemens will get the start for the Jets if Pennington doesn’t play and Clemens has had no success in very limited action in his career. However, Clemens looked good in the preseason and many think he could be an improvement over Pennington (I’ll reserve judgment). New York applies to a very strong 63-10 ATS bounce back situation and the line appears to be fair (my ratings favor Baltimore by 10 ½ points). The Ravens, meanwhile, qualify in a negative 32-72-3 ATS game 2 situation but I’m not going to make the Jets a Best Bet since Baltimore is 33-14-2 ATS as a home favorite under Brian Billick, including 19-4-1 ATS hosting non-division teams. The team trend is not as strong as the general situations favoring Baltimore so I will consider New York a Strong Opinion at +10 points or more.
Strong Opinion
UNDER - JACKSONVILLE (-10.0) 21 Atlanta 7
10:00 AM Pacific, 16-Sep-07
The Falcons managed just 4.0 yards per play and 3 points in their first regular season game with Michael Vick and today they face a Jaguars’ team that will be fired up defensively after allowing 284 rushing yards to the Titans last week. Jacksonville is traditionally one of the best teams in the league at defending the run and their defense allowed just 13 points despite the uncharacteristically poor run defense. Teams that score 7 points or less in their opener are not good bets in game 2, especially when facing teams that allowed 13 points or less in week 1 (6-21 ATS). My ratings favor Jacksonville by 13 points with a total of 36 points. I mention the projected points based on my ratings because this game applies to a 102-50-5 ATS early season UNDER angle. The total is only 34 ½ points, so some of the value of that angle is lost due to negative line value. I’ll consider the UNDER a Strong Opinion at 34 points or higher.
Strong Opinion
UNDER - Dallas (-3.5) 19 MIAMI 16
01:05 PM Pacific, 16-Sep-07
Cowboys coach Wade Wilson can’t be too excited about how his defense performed in last week’s 45-35 win over the Giants, so I expect a better effort from that unit this week. Miami always has a solid defense and they tend to play their best at home. In fact, Miami is 57-34 UNDER at home since 1996, including 6-2 UNDER last season and 24-8 UNDER when the total is 40 points or higher. This game also applies to a solid 102-50-5 UNDER angle. Unfortunately my math projects a total of 42 points (and favors Dallas by 3 points) so I’ll resist playing the UNDER as a Best Bet at the current line of 40 ½ points. I’ll consider the UNDER a Strong Opinion at 40 points or higher and I’d make the UNDER a 2-Star Best Bet at 42 points or higher.
posted by phantom
Sept. 13 2007 6:04pm -
0 likes
My Plays For Week 2
Stl Under 44 -105............$2200.00
Cinn-6 1/2-110.................$2100.00
N.O. -3 1/2 -104..................$800.00
Hou +6 1/2 +100................$600.00
Cinn Un 41.5 -105...............$500.00
GB Un 37.5 -103..................$400.00
Teaser For Fun
10 Points
Kc+22
Kc Un 44 .5
Hou +16.5...........................$200.00
Could Be Some Late Plays On Sunday
to Me Success Is Being Happy With Yourself,the Choices You Make,the Effort You Give,and Happy With The Results Your Accomplish....i Think Base On Poster Post...that Everyone Thanks Me For My Effort To Help...with That..i Think All Of You Want Me To Have A Winning Year....some Follow Some Do...bet At Your Level....one Poster Alway Bets 20% Of What I Bet...that His Level
some Players On This Forum You Want To Loses...base On How They Write There Word.....iam Lucky!!!! I Got The Power Of Many Behind Me Wishing The Best For Me
with That
how Can I Loses
Best To All
ACE-ACE
posted by phantom
Sept. 13 2007 9:40pm -
0 likes
rob ferringo
NFL SELECTIONS
7-Unit Play. Take #215 New Orleans (-3.5) over Tampa Bay (1 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 16)
Note: This is our NFL Game of the Month. I do endorse this play up to -4.0. It is pretty stable at -3.5 in Vegas but is -3.0 at a majority of the top nine online sportsbooks and that is our basis. Believe me, this will be a double-digit win so an extra half-point shouldn't factor in.
Since 1997, teams that started the year with two straight road games are 20-13 ATS (60.6) in Week 2. Favorites in that role (as in, favored in the second game) are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent). Those road teams are 13-6 ATS off a loss in Week 1, and 5-1 when instilled as a favorite after that loss. New Orleans is devalued after that undressing on the Thursday night opener, but they were actually winning that game early and were tied, with the ball, to start the second half. Their talent puts them in the top one-third of teams in this league while Tampa is still a bottom-third club. The Tampa offense can’t put the type of pressure on a team that the Colts can and I think that the Saints are just itching to show that their defense is actually better this season than last. Also, if Brian Kelly doesn’t play the Bucs are short one of their best corners. That’s not a place you want to be when Drew Brees comes to town. Sean Payton is 7-3 ATS on the road and New Orleans has covered four of five against the Bucs. Finally, the moneyline on this game is anywhere from 25 to 50 cents heavy, and that's a strong indicator.
4-Unit Play. Take #221 Seattle (-2.5) over Arizona (4 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 16)
This line is baffling. Until the Cardinals actually win some games they don’t deserve the respect that they get from the public, who is in love with them as a perpetual “sleeper teamâ€. They aren’t. The Cardinals are 6-18 ATS (25 percent) in September home games and 12-19 ATS in September divisional games. They are 0-4 ATS since 2003 in divisional home games in September. The Cardinals are 3-16 straight up and 2-10 ATS in home openers, they are coming off a short week, and they are facing a team with superior talent. Arizona will start two rookie offensive linemen against a veteran Seattle front seven. I simply don’t see how they will be able to withstand the pressure, and I don’t see them stopping an offense that is very familiar with their personnel.
4-Unit Play. Take ‘Over’ 37.0 Buffalo at Pittsburgh (1 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 16)
Over the past two years the Steelers are an astounding 13-1-2 against the total when playing at home. Buffalo’s defense is decimated – I mean completely decimated – and will be without as many as five starters. The Steelers have been throwing the ball more with Bruce Arians and I see them completely devastating the Bills. Pittsburgh is 6-2 ATS over the past five years with a line between 36.0 and 38.0. Further, the ‘over’ is 36-15-2 in Pittsburgh’s last 53 home games, 46-22-2 with them as a favorite, and 10-1-1 when they allow less than 15 points in the previous game. Buy onto 37 if you have to because it’s such a key number, but if the Bills can chip in 9-13 points this one won’t be in doubt at all.
4-Unit Play. Take ‘Over’ 34.5 Kansas City at Chicago (4 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 16)
Note: I endorse this play at 35.0 because that merely brings the push into play.
Chicago went 9-1 against the number last year at home and is 9-3 in Soldier Field when the total is between 33.5 and 35.5. The ‘over’ is 10-2 in Chicago’s last 12 home games, 16-6-1 in their last 23 overall, and 14-3-1 as a favorite. The Bears lost two starters on defense last week and the Chiefs will be without two of their better defenders (Jared Allen and Patrick Surtain). These two teams combined for six points last week so there’s a naturally overreaction toward the ‘under’. But there’s a system at work here that’s hit at nearly 73 percent ‘over’ for the past six years. Chicago’s first four home games last year saw an average of 45.5 combined points and four of the Bears’ last five home openers have gone ‘over’. Rex Grossman is notorious for this – answering critics with a 250-yard, 4 TD eruption when everyone is calling for his head.
3-Unit Play. Take #206 Tennessee (+7.5) over Indianapolis (1 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 16)
Two very good systems at work here. First, play on a home dog that won its last game outright vs. an opponent who was playing at home. This system hit at roughly 61 percent over the past 15 years. Next, play on a division home dog that won straight up on as an away dog the previous week. This system has hit at 66 percent over the past 15 years. I couldn’t have been more impressed with how physical Tennessee was last week and I think they can make the Colts uncomfortable with their style. Also, road teams favored by 7.5 or more were 38-63 ATS (37.6 percent) between 1997 and 2006.
2-Unit Play. Take #207 Houston (+7) over Carolina (1 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 16)
If the Panthers are an automatic play as an underdog (20-3-1 ATS) then they are also an automatic play against as a favorite. The Jake Delhomme-John Fox combo is 9-17-1 ATS as a home favorite, 3-7 ATS at home, and 3-12 ATS as a favorite between 4.0 and 7.0. Remember, the Panthers were on the verge of losing in St. Louis before two Steven Jackson fumbles handed them 14 points. I don’t see Carolina running the ball they way they did against an awful Rams defense, and this is play blends two basic tenets that have been very successful recently – playing the underdogs (58 percent ATS in 2006) and playing the AFC vs. the NFC.
2-Unit Play. Take #232 Philadelphia (-6.5) over Washington (8 p.m., Monday, Sept. 16)
Andy Reid is 10-1 ATS off a straight up loss as a favorite and Donovan McNabb is 16-7 ATS following a loss. The Eagles are 17-10 ATS playing at home as a favorite after a loss and - the coup de grace - they are 11-3 ATS as home chalk on Monday Night Football. Is this line about 1-3 points to much? Yes. But you can't argue with results. Washington is 3-7 ATS on MNF and have a young quarterback making his first road start. In Philly. The 'Skins lost Jon Jansen and I think their offensive line will suffer, especially against the blitz-happy Eagles. Finally, Washington is 10-5 ATS when scoring 21 or more points and 12-22 ATS when they don't. I don't see it happening for them this week.
BONUS SELECTION
3-Unit Play. TEASER: Take Chicago (-1.5), Jacksonville (-0.5), and Pittsburgh (-0.5).
Note: This is a 3-team sweetheart teaser which just about all online books offer. However, since all customers that use "local guys" may not be able to play this game it's simply a bonus play. I initially liked all three teams to cover their normal lines, and favorites of 8.0 or higher in Week 2 went 5-1 last year. However, over the past 10 years faves of -8.0 or higher this early in the year are just 13-18 ATS (41.9 percent) and if you throw out last year they were just 8-17 ATS (32 percent). For this bet to lose, one of these three teams would have to lose outright, basically, and I simply do not see that happening. I see Chicago 34-10, Jacksonville 24-13, and Pittsburgh 38-9. It's 10-cent juice on this bet and I like it as an online bonus for those of you that like the action.
That's it for this week. Good luck.
posted by phantom
Sept. 15 2007 9:19pm -
0 likes
he wunderdog
Game: San Diego at New England (Sunday 9/16 8:15 PM Eastern)
Pick: San Diego +3.5
Can you say REVENGE? The Chargers are a hungry team that still thinks they belonged in the SuperBowl last year. But the Pats had something to say about that, erasing a 21-13 fourth quarter Chargers lead in last year's playoffs to send the Chargers packing. After New England upset San Diego, ending their 14-2 season, Patroits players danced on the logo at midfield after the game. The normally stoic and controlled LaDanian Tomlinson was incensed and refused to shake hands with Pats players after the game. He called the Pats "disrespectful" and said that "it showed no class at all and maybe that comes from their coach." Ouch. This will be a fired up Chargers team, putting forth it's best effort in this one. And this team's best effort is something you don't want to face. The one thing the Pats won't have here, given the early scheduled date, is their ice cold New England weather as their 12th man. It will be great football weather with game-time temperatures in the high 50s to low 60s. The Pats have this mystique of being a very dominant team at home. That is because they have dominated at home in the playoffs. The assumption by many however is that they are always a great play at home. It is actually quite the contrary! They are just 6-10 ATS during the regular season at home over the last two years! San Diego is the more talented team overall and they have a key motivational edge at work here. They no longer have Schottenheimer at the helm, who was known for somehow turning wins into losses. Instead they have Norv Turner who, despite a weak overall head coaching record, is 15-3 ATS as a road dog of 3.5 to 7 points. We think the motivational edge (San Diego up and New England possibly down after the embarrassing cheating revelations this week) plus 3.5 points makes the Chargers a great play. While our comptuter matchup of this ga me has the Pats winning a close one, we think the Chargers have a shot at winning the game outright. At a minimum, we like them to keep it within a field goal.
_________________
posted by phantom
Sept. 15 2007 9:20pm -
0 likes
Sports Betting Solutions
New Orleans Saints @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers Analysis
OVER 41.5 -110 $2200/$2000
Minnesota Vikings @ Detroit Lions Analysis
UNDER 42.5 -110 $1100/$1000
Seattle Seahawks @ Arizona Cardinals Analysis
UNDER 42.5 -110 $1100/$ 1000
New York-A Jets @ Baltimore Ravens Analysis
OVER 33.0 -110 $2200/$2000
Oakland Raiders @ Denver Broncos Analysis
OVER 37.5 -110 $2200/$2000
San Diego Chargers @ New England Patriots Analysis
UNDER 46.5 -110 $2200/$2000
posted by phantom
Sept. 15 2007 9:20pm -
0 likes
Shawn Torrey line error
Panthers -6.5 over Texans
Reason:Last season the Panthers were many people's preseason pick to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl, however a slow start, combined with a four-game skid down the stretch ended all hope. That was then and this is now, and with many of the same pieces in place it appears as if Carolina is serious about making those predictions come true; even if it is a year later.
Jake Delhomme was very impressive in the season-opening road win at St. Louis, and the two-headed rush attack of Foster and Williams combined for 156 on the ground. A win here over the Texans could very well have the Panthers looking at a 4-0 start considering that a trip to Atlanta, followed by a home game against the Bucs is to follow. You might remember that last week I cashed a Free Play winner on this same Houston team, however as improved as I believe they are, winning at home and winning on the road are two entirely different things in this league. Especially when the home win came against a KC team that appears to be in shambles right now, and the road trip takes you to Carolina.
This line will surely hit a full TD later in the week so I suggest you jump now. Play on Carolina
posted by phantom
Sept. 15 2007 9:21pm -
0 likes
Chris Berman, "The Swami" (ESPN)
Bears -
Pats-
Packers+(SU WINNER)
Titans +
Bills + (SU WINNER)
Jets + (SU WINNER)
posted by phantom
Sept. 15 2007 9:21pm -
0 likes
Crash Test Dummies
Marc Lawrence
"Running into you like this without warning
is like catching a sniff of tequila in the morning.
You flew by like a summer vacation…
I think I'll disappear now, slip out sideways.â€
The road to success is paved with ____________. Go ahead, you fill in the blank.
Some say its Failure. Other insist its Intentions. Still, others maintain its Separation, or even Imitation, perhaps. Regardless, the road to success is not an easy one - but the truth is some handle its hurdles better than others.
A good barometer in gauging success in the NFL is how teams respond the rest of the season after a rocky start. Some teams who hit the wall early on never seem to recover, while others tighten up their seat belt and go at it harder than ever.
That’s confirmed by the fact that, since 1980, a total of 205 teams had started the season 0-2. Of that group only 20 – yes, I said twenty - went on to make the playoffs. That’s less than 10%, folks.
The bottom line: Game Two is pivotal to teams that lost their season opener if they hold aspirations of playing in the post-season.
These Game Two situations instantly become “crash testsâ€, if you will. And because of it, the pressure to win becomes a burden too heavy to bear for most teams, especially those playing in front of the hometown faithful. And as a handicapper we can take full advantage of the situation if we were to -
PLAY AGAINST any NFL Game Two non-division home team off a loss versus an opponent off a loss.
That’s because these frustrated Game Two hosts are just 14-34 ATS since 1980.
Furthermore, whenever this airbag-less bunch is a favorite of four or more points they dip to 6-21 ATS (0-12 ATS since 1998).
Perhaps it’s the enormity of having to win, or maybe it’s the lack of preparation given to a non-division foe that sends a lump into the throat of these home teams.
One thing is for certain, when these four-plus point favorites enter off a loss of seven or more points they become leading contenders for the next phase of crash testing dummies, as they become 1-15 ATS cadavers.
The last qualifying play was in 2005 when Green Bay drove off as a six-point favorite in a test case against Cleveland. The Packers lost the whole game, 26-24.
This weeks card :
The Bears are off a loss of more than 7 points VS Chiefs off a loss
( Non Div off a loss)
posted by phantom
Sept. 15 2007 9:38pm -
0 likes
Larry Ness
Larry Ness' 20* Division GOY (perfect 5-0 start with NFL 20* plays in '07!)
My 20* play is on the NO Saints at 1:00 ET. Let's not overreact to the Saints' opening season loss at Indy. Last time I checked, the Colts were a pretty good team. The Saints have had a few extra days to get "their act together" and in the Bucs, they'll meet the perfect opponent (patsy?). Tampa Bay managed just two FGs in losing at Seattle last Sunday and Cadillac Williams was forced out after injuring his ribs. He says he'll play but so what? He was nowhere near the player LY that he was in his rookie season, topping 100 yards just twice, while gaining a total of only 101 yards in his last three games of '06 (2.4 YPC). Tampa Bay's OL is no bargain and unlike last year, when he stepped in to lead a playoff-ready team like the Eagles, 37-year-old QB Jeff Garcia now leads a team "hardly ready for prime time!" The Saints' D allowed 452 yards to the Colts (288 passing) but will have no such problems with Tampa's offense (NFC-low 211 points scored in '06). While Tampa can still play some D (far from great these days, as LY's 22.1 PPG attests), expect the Saints to bounce back from their Week 1 disaster. New Orleans led the NFL in total offense LY but did not score a single offensive TD vs the Colts. A team known for its "big plays," had just one play for more than 13 yards. Bress was terrible (28-41 for 192 YP with two INTs) , while Bush (12-38) and Deuce (10-38), did nothing! Tampa went 0-6 in its division last year, with the Saints winning 31-14 here in Tampa. Brees had 314 YP in that game and I look for a "return to form" for New Orleans in this game, against a very beatable foe. NFC South GOY 20* NO Saints.
Good Luck...Larry
posted by phantom
Sept. 16 2007 3:05am -
0 likes
ultra spts
4 ny jets
3 sf 49ers
3 tb buccaneers
posted by phantom
Sept. 16 2007 3:06am -
0 likes
MIKE ROSE
Indianapolis Colts -7.0 (-105)
Sun Sep 16 '07 1:00p
Different year, same number. The Colts shockingly lost by a 20-17 count in this venue last season, as the Titans came back from a 14-point deficit to hand Indy one of its four losses on the season. Tennessee gave this team fits last year as the Colts went 0-2 ATS, and they were one of only two teams to give Peyton and company a major run for their money in the RCA Dome.
So, why then are the Colts seven-point favorites once again in this spot considering Tennessee gave them so much trouble a season ago? I’ll tell you why!!! It’s because Tennessee lost a number of impact players from a year ago, and the Colts won’t overlook them and take them lightly this time around. Indy figured they could just show up a year ago and cruise to a victory, but that just wasn’t the case. Tennessee showed they weren’t intimidated by them whatsoever in their first match-up, and the Colts almost paid for it dearly. When they met up again, the Titans were playing their best football of the season and pulled off the stunning victory.
I was amazed at how well the Colts dissected the Saints defense in the second half of their game last week. New Orleans has a better defense than the Titans, and Peyton made them look like absolute garbage. Sure, the Colts attack isn’t as lethal outdoors on a grass field, but this unit is so in rhythm with one another that nobody can stop them now. Especially the Titans!!!
Tennessee grinded out a win vs. the Jaguars last week, and QB Vince Young did a fine job managing the game. However, I feel the Jags are headed south after peaking the last couple seasons, and they by no means have the offense that strikes fear into anyone. Tennessee will have to do a better job in the passing game this week to have any shot of winning this game let alone covering the number. Indy simply shut down the Saints solid 1-2 punch in their backfield, and it looks as if the run “D†that showed up in the post-season last year isn’t an aberration. VY will have to beat them through the air, and I just don’t see it happening.
Peyton and the Colts have feasted upon this Tennessee team for years (7-1 SU / 6-2 ATS), and I’m expecting more of the same this afternoon. The Titans have covered 8 of their L/9 overall, but I just don’t think their ready to handle the game Indy will bring with them to Nashville. Lay the tuddy as the Colts pick up the road win and cover.
Chicago Bears -12.0 (-110)
Sun Sep 16 '07 4:15p
The 2007 season didn’t start out too well for either of these teams. Kansas City went into Houston and got steamrolled allowing the Texans to pick up an opening day win for the first time since 2003. The Bears locked horns with a very good San Diego club and dominated for a half, but a couple injuries cropped up in the second half and LT and company were able to pull away and grab the 14-3 victory.
To make matters worse for both of these clubs, neither was able to find the endzone in their Week 1 contests. The Chiefs managed just three points against Houston, while the Bears suffered the same fate against a stout Charger defense. Turnovers were mainly the key as both clubs combined for eight of them, and that’s just not going to get it done in the National Football league.
Oddsmakers expect the Bears to bounce back nicely this week as they’ve installed them as 13-point favorites with a ‘total’ of 35. Obviously, they’re expecting the Bears to put forth another dominating effort at Soldier Field where they beat opponents by a combined 229-131 in their Super Bowl year a season ago.
The city of Chicago is up in arms about last week’s performance out west, and they’re expecting nothing less than an impressive home debut from the Bears this week. With KC proving to be an offensive sieve thus far, and the fact that the Bears defense is amongst the best in the league, it’s highly conceivable that this one turns into another laugher that the city of Chicago got to see a number of times last season.
With all the smack talk coming out of San Diego this week targeting a number of Bears key offensive players, look for the home team to come out very determined offensively and put this game away early. KC once had one of the better offensive units in the entire league, but much has changed over the years, and its numbers have slowly eroded over that time. Look for the Bears “D†to force a number of KC TO’s, and for them to limit the effectiveness of RB Johnson.
One of these teams will find the endzone a number of times this afternoon, and they’ll be wearing blue and orange. The Chiefs will play the role of sacrificial lamb as the Bears take their frustrations out on them and pick up their first SU win and cover of the season.
Washington Redskins +7.0 (-115)
Mon Sep 17 '07 8:30p
This weeks Monday night match-up pits a couple of NFC East representatives who don’t like one another very much. Washington picked up a hard fought victory in OT last week at home over Miami, while the Eagles fumbled away their game in Lambeau Field against the GB Packers.
After sweeping the season series back in 2005, the Eagles returned the favor last season by beating the Skins in Washington 21-19 and at home by a 27-3 final count. Except for their success in 2005, the Redskins haven’t had much to boast about after playing the Eagles. Philly has dominated them throughout the L/5 years, but Washington will put forth a good showing tonight and let the rest of the conference know they will be a major player this season.
Washington was a team just killed with injuries a season ago. They hampered them in every facet of the game, and that’s the main reason their season win total dropped dramatically from 2005. Things look to be much different this time around though as the defense has looked much quicker, and the offense much more efficient. They churned out 400 yards of offense against a very good Miami defense last week, and only limited them to 273 total yards of offense on the other side of the ball. K Shaun Suisham also nailed all three of his FG attempts including the game winner in OT.
Washington HC Joe Gibbs’ formula for success in this league might be a bit outdated, but when you can hold onto the ball longer than your opponent and out gain them offensively, a win is most likely to follow provided you don’t turn the ball over. This is the type of attack we’ll see from the Skins all season long, as I believe they own a very underrated defense that they’ll be able to rely on more now that its healthy. Many only remember their poor play from a year ago when injuries crippled them, but keep in mind; they led the league in total defense in 2005 and won a game in the playoffs as well.
I respect Philly HC Andy Reid immensely since he’s a proven winner, but this is an awful lot of chalk for his club to lay in a crucial divisional game to kick-off the season. Grab the points with Washington as they keep this one a lot closer than the experts think.
Reply With Quote
posted by phantom
Sept. 16 2007 3:09am -
0 likes
Guaranteed Pick: Lenny Del Genio
Game: Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions Sep 16 2007 4:05PM
Prediction: Minnesota Vikings
Reason: Play on the Vikings at 4:05 ET. Jon Kitna may have predicted a 10-win season but lets' not call him a seer after Detroit opened the '07 season with a 36-21 win at Oakland. The Lions jumped out to a 17-0 lead but actually trailed 21-20 in the 4th, before scoring the game's final 16 points. Kitna threw three TDs and passed for 289 yards but he's always had trouble in the red zone. With RB Kevin Jones out, Tatum Bell had 87 YR but here he'll face the team which led the NFL in rushing D last year (Minnesota), allowing 61.6 ypg. The Vikings did a nice job stopping Atlanta's running game in Week 1, holding the Falcons to 96 yards (3.4 ypc). The Minnesota D also returned two interceptions for TDs and let's remember that Kitna threw 22 INTs in '06 and two last week. The Vikings are far from a complete team, as QB Tarvaris Jackson is surely a "work in progress" but the Vikings have to be thrilled with their No. 1 pick, RB Adrian Peterson. A.P. ran for 103 yards in his first career game plus caught a short pass and turned it into a 60-yard TD. The Vikings shouldn't have too much trouble with the Detroit D, which ranked 28th in ypg in '06 and 30th in points allowed. Detroit was favored three times in its 3-13 season last year and not only failed to cover anyone of those games but lost all three SU, as well. One of those losses as a favorite was a 30-20 Week 14 at home to the Vikings (30-20), Detroit's 10th straight loss to Minnesota! The Vikings have beaten the Lions in 14 of the last 15 meetings. So what's different here? Nothing! Detroit is my NFC 25* North GOY.
posted by phantom
Sept. 16 2007 3:10am -
0 likes
Guaranteed Pick: Jimmy The Moose
Game: New Orleans Saints at Tampa Bay Buccaneers Sep 16 2007 1:00PM
Prediction: New Orleans Saints
Reason: The Saints offense is too good to repeat their week 1 performance. New Orleans is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games played in week 2. In their last 8 games as a road favorite the Saints are 6-2 ATS. New Orleans has is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 road games overall. TB is 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games as a dog. In their last 5 games played in September the Buccaneers are 1-4 ATS. The Bucs are 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 games. In their last 9 games vs. NFC opponents TB is 1-7-1 ATS. New Orleans is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 visits to Tampa. Expect a big game from the Saints and their first win of the season. Play on the Saints -.
posted by phantom
Sept. 16 2007 3:10am -
0 likes
Goodfella Sports
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NFL
ATLANTA/JACKSONVILLE UNDER 34.5 (-105) 1PM
TENNESSEE +7 OVER INDY (1PM)
BUFFALO/PITT UNDER 37.5 (+100) 1PM
CAROLINA -6.5 (-105) over HOUSTON (1PM)
MIAMI +3.5 (-102) OVER DALLAS (4PM)
MLB
FLORIDA/CAROLINA OVER 11-110 (3PM)
Reply With Quote
posted by phantom
Sept. 16 2007 3:10am -
0 likes
09/16/07
03:14 AM Lineups NFL Bucs CB Brian Kelly (groin) is NOT expected to play Sunday.
09/16/07
03:13 AM Injuries NFL Bucs RB Carnell Williams (ribs) is expected to be limited in Sunday's game.
09/16/07
03:11 AM Lineups NFL Panthers K Josh Scobee (quadricep) is OUT of Sunday's game.
09/16/07
03:07 AM Injuries NFL Giants DE Osi Umenyiora (knee) returned to practice on Friday, but is still questionable for Sunday.
09/16/07
03:03 AM Lineups NFL Giants RB Brandon Jacobs (knee) has been ruled OUT of Sunday's game.
09/16/07
03:01 AM Lineups NFL Packers WR Greg Jennings (hamstring) is NOT expected to play Sunday.
09/16/07
02:58 AM Lineups NFL Browns LB Willie McGinest (back) has been ruled OUT of Sunday's game.
09/16/07
02:57 AM Lineups NFL Bills S Coy Wire (knee), S Ko Simpson (ankle), and CB Jason Webster (arm) are OUT of Sunday's game.
09/16/07
02:54 AM Injuries NFL Bills WR Josh Reed (thigh) hasn't practiced this week, and is expected to be limited on Sunday.
posted by phantom
Sept. 16 2007 3:17am -
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LT Profits
Buffalo Bills @ Pittsburgh Steelers o37.5 (-110)
Sun Sep 16 '07 1:00p
Buffalo Bills, Pitt Steelers Over 37.5
While we understand why the total in this game between the Buffalo Bills and Pittsburgh Steelers is rather low, we feel that the Steelers may put up around 28 points themselves here.
The Bills gave it their all in a tough 15-14 home loss to Denver on opening week, but truth be told, they actually allowed the Broncos to march up and down the field. Buffalo allowed 470 total yards in that contest, and they were equally bad against the run (5.3 yards per rush) and the pass (7.7 yards per attempt).
That is bad news against a Steelers offense that looked crisp with a healthy Roethlisberger last week, as Pittsburgh piled up 365 yards vs. the Cleveland Browns in a 34-7 rout. We would not be surprised if the Steelers actually topped that already impressive yardage total here, and they should be able to score with relative ease.
All that said, we are not fond with the idea of laying close to double digits in the NFL. However, if the Steelers are as effective as we expect offensively, the Bills may only need to score 10 points or mort to push this game Over, which is certainly attainable.
NFL Free Pick: Bills, Steelers Over 37.5
Tennessee Titans +7.0 (-110)
Sun Sep 16 '07 1:00p
Tennessee Titans +7 vs. Colts
The Indianapolis Colts exploded in the second half of their season opener vs. New Orleans, but we feel they will have their hands full as road favorites vs. the young Tennessee Titans here.
The Titans went into Jacksonville and upset the Jaguars in Week 1, amassing an amazing 282 yards on the ground! They will no doubt employ that same strategy here in an attempt to keep Peyton Manning and Co. off the field for as long as possible. Remember also that the Titans nearly beat the Colts twice last year, losing just 14-13 at Indianapolis after leading 13-0 before pulling off the 20-17 upset in this stadium.
Now the Colts allowed over 100 yards rushing in every single regular season game last season, but they looked better in the 2007 opener, although they still extended that streak by allowing the Saints 106 rushing yards. This assignment is tougher though, as not only do they have to content with running back Chris Brown, but they also must chase one of the most mobile quarterbacks in football in Vince Young.
We expect this matchup to be a carbon copy of the two meetings last season, with the Titans controlling the clock with their ground game, and with the winner on the field not determined until the very late stages.
NFL Free Pick: Titans +7
posted by phantom
Sept. 16 2007 3:20am -
0 likes
Mike Rose comps
Indianapolis Colts -7.0 (-105)
Sun Sep 16 '07 1:00p
Different year, same number. The Colts shockingly lost by a 20-17 count in this venue last season, as the Titans came back from a 14-point deficit to hand Indy one of its four losses on the season. Tennessee gave this team fits last year as the Colts went 0-2 ATS, and they were one of only two teams to give Peyton and company a major run for their money in the RCA Dome.
So, why then are the Colts seven-point favorites once again in this spot considering Tennessee gave them so much trouble a season ago? I’ll tell you why!!! It’s because Tennessee lost a number of impact players from a year ago, and the Colts won’t overlook them and take them lightly this time around. Indy figured they could just show up a year ago and cruise to a victory, but that just wasn’t the case. Tennessee showed they weren’t intimidated by them whatsoever in their first match-up, and the Colts almost paid for it dearly. When they met up again, the Titans were playing their best football of the season and pulled off the stunning victory.
I was amazed at how well the Colts dissected the Saints defense in the second half of their game last week. New Orleans has a better defense than the Titans, and Peyton made them look like absolute garbage. Sure, the Colts attack isn’t as lethal outdoors on a grass field, but this unit is so in rhythm with one another that nobody can stop them now. Especially the Titans!!!
Tennessee grinded out a win vs. the Jaguars last week, and QB Vince Young did a fine job managing the game. However, I feel the Jags are headed south after peaking the last couple seasons, and they by no means have the offense that strikes fear into anyone. Tennessee will have to do a better job in the passing game this week to have any shot of winning this game let alone covering the number. Indy simply shut down the Saints solid 1-2 punch in their backfield, and it looks as if the run “D†that showed up in the post-season last year isn’t an aberration. VY will have to beat them through the air, and I just don’t see it happening.
Peyton and the Colts have feasted upon this Tennessee team for years (7-1 SU / 6-2 ATS), and I’m expecting more of the same this afternoon. The Titans have covered 8 of their L/9 overall, but I just don’t think their ready to handle the game Indy will bring with them to Nashville. Lay the tuddy as the Colts pick up the road win and cover.
Chicago Bears -12.0 (-110)
Sun Sep 16 '07 4:15p
The 2007 season didn’t start out too well for either of these teams. Kansas City went into Houston and got steamrolled allowing the Texans to pick up an opening day win for the first time since 2003. The Bears locked horns with a very good San Diego club and dominated for a half, but a couple injuries cropped up in the second half and LT and company were able to pull away and grab the 14-3 victory.
To make matters worse for both of these clubs, neither was able to find the endzone in their Week 1 contests. The Chiefs managed just three points against Houston, while the Bears suffered the same fate against a stout Charger defense. Turnovers were mainly the key as both clubs combined for eight of them, and that’s just not going to get it done in the National Football league.
Oddsmakers expect the Bears to bounce back nicely this week as they’ve installed them as 13-point favorites with a ‘total’ of 35. Obviously, they’re expecting the Bears to put forth another dominating effort at Soldier Field where they beat opponents by a combined 229-131 in their Super Bowl year a season ago.
The city of Chicago is up in arms about last week’s performance out west, and they’re expecting nothing less than an impressive home debut from the Bears this week. With KC proving to be an offensive sieve thus far, and the fact that the Bears defense is amongst the best in the league, it’s highly conceivable that this one turns into another laugher that the city of Chicago got to see a number of times last season.
With all the smack talk coming out of San Diego this week targeting a number of Bears key offensive players, look for the home team to come out very determined offensively and put this game away early. KC once had one of the better offensive units in the entire league, but much has changed over the years, and its numbers have slowly eroded over that time. Look for the Bears “D†to force a number of KC TO’s, and for them to limit the effectiveness of RB Johnson.
One of these teams will find the endzone a number of times this afternoon, and they’ll be wearing blue and orange. The Chiefs will play the role of sacrificial lamb as the Bears take their frustrations out on them and pick up their first SU win and cover of the season.
Washington Redskins +7.0 (-115)
Mon Sep 17 '07 8:30p
This weeks Monday night match-up pits a couple of NFC East representatives who don’t like one another very much. Washington picked up a hard fought victory in OT last week at home over Miami, while the Eagles fumbled away their game in Lambeau Field against the GB Packers.
After sweeping the season series back in 2005, the Eagles returned the favor last season by beating the Skins in Washington 21-19 and at home by a 27-3 final count. Except for their success in 2005, the Redskins haven’t had much to boast about after playing the Eagles. Philly has dominated them throughout the L/5 years, but Washington will put forth a good showing tonight and let the rest of the conference know they will be a major player this season.
Washington was a team just killed with injuries a season ago. They hampered them in every facet of the game, and that’s the main reason their season win total dropped dramatically from 2005. Things look to be much different this time around though as the defense has looked much quicker, and the offense much more efficient. They churned out 400 yards of offense against a very good Miami defense last week, and only limited them to 273 total yards of offense on the other side of the ball. K Shaun Suisham also nailed all three of his FG attempts including the game winner in OT.
Washington HC Joe Gibbs’ formula for success in this league might be a bit outdated, but when you can hold onto the ball longer than your opponent and out gain them offensively, a win is most likely to follow provided you don’t turn the ball over. This is the type of attack we’ll see from the Skins all season long, as I believe they own a very underrated defense that they’ll be able to rely on more now that its healthy. Many only remember their poor play from a year ago when injuries crippled them, but keep in mind; they led the league in total defense in 2005 and won a game in the playoffs as well.
I respect Philly HC Andy Reid immensely since he’s a proven winner, but this is an awful lot of chalk for his club to lay in a crucial divisional game to kick-off the season. Grab the points with Washington as they keep this one a lot closer than the experts think.
_________________
posted by phantom
Sept. 16 2007 3:20am -
0 likes
John Ryan comp
Game: Cincinnati Bengals at Cleveland Browns Sep 16 2007 1:00PM
Prediction: Cleveland Browns
Reason: Ai Simulator 3* graded play on Cleveland Browns plus the points over Cincinnati I had a 5* MONSTER winner on the Bengals Monday night in their huge win over Baltimore. Although it is just week 2, this game has letdown written all over it and Bengals working on a short week too. Bengals defense was quite impressive in containing Ravens offense and forcing 6 turnovers. They will be the benefactor of 6 turnovers this week. Cleveland must and will get a solid running game led by Lewis. Bengals will crowd the LOS and force Browns to pass and that is where the big play opportunities reside. You will see them lineup TE Winslow in the slot instead of the traditional formation. This will enable him to use his athleticism off the snap and prevents LB from banging him on the snap. Back to the running game. Lewis will be running behind a strong blocking FB in Vickers. Lewis is a straight ahead runner and running simple yet powerful straight ahead running plays will wear down the Bengals defense. These types of running plays also serve to eliminate the speed and quickness of the Bengals defense. Misdirection and zone running plays take too long to develop against a quick and aggressive defense like the Bengals. So, yes, I think the Browns running game will be a big success. AiS shows a 75% probability that Browns will lose this game by 6 or fewer points. AiS also shows an 85% probability that Browns will score 22 to 28 points and note that Browns are 32-4 ATS when they score within this range. Take the Browns.
posted by phantom
Sept. 16 2007 3:20am -
0 likes
Jimmy The Moose comp
Game: Cincinnati Bengals at Cleveland Browns Sep 16 2007 1:00PM
Prediction: Cincinnati Bengals
Reason: The Bengals are known for their offense but it was thier D that impressed in week 1 and should do more of the same in week 2. Cincinnati is 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games as a road favorite. In their last 7 games played in September the Bengals are 7-0 ATS. Cincu is 15-4-1 ATS in their last 20 road games. The Browns are 4-11-1 ATS in their last 16 games vs. AFC North opponents. In their last 14 games as a home dog they are 3-10-1 ATS. The Bengals are 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings between the teams and will beat up on the Browns this afternoon. Play on the Bengals -.
_________________
posted by phantom
Sept. 16 2007 3:21am -
0 likes
Norm Hitzges
Double Play--Cincy -6.5 vs Cleveland
Tennessee +7 vs Indy
San Francisco +3 vs St Louis
Green Bay pk vs NY Giants
New Orleans -3.5 vs Tampa
Chicago -12 vs KC
San Diego +3.5 vs New England
Tennessee/Indy Under 45.5
Jacksonville/Atlanta Under 34.5
Baltimore/NY Jets Under 33.5
_________________
posted by phantom
Sept. 16 2007 3:21am -
0 likes
Wild Bill
Week 2, NFL Sept 13-17
Buffalo +9 1/2 ( 1unit)
Bengals -6 (1 unit)
Under 38 1/2 Houston-Carolina (1 unit)
49'ers +3 1/2 ( 1unit)
Packers +1 (1 unit)
Atlanta +10 1/2 (1 unit)
Saints -3 1/2 (2 units)
Under 40 Miami-Dallas (1 unit)
Over 43 1/2 Seattle-Arizona (4 units)
Patriots -3 (2 units)
Jets +11 (3 units)
6 1/2 pt teaser: Eagles - 1/2 & Under 46 1/2 (1 unit)
posted by phantom
Sept. 16 2007 3:22am -
0 likes
Preferred Picks-Mark Lawrence
Chargers
Chiefs
posted by phantom
Sept. 16 2007 12:22pm -
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outlook
Two NFL Locks Guarantee
(Available until 9/16/2007 11:59 PM)
NFL Locks
Lions -3
Bills +10
posted by phantom
Sept. 16 2007 12:23pm -
0 likes
NFL Free Pick
No excuse yesterday. Just a bad day. I apologize for a bad performance and also want you to know that my free picks are indeed member picks it just so happen that the last two were losers. I am going to give you two member picks today to show you that we are the #1 service in america. Early season is very tough because you have very little knowledge on how teams play until you see them in action. I am not like other services that always tell you when they win. You cant win every week in this idustry, its just impossible. Yesterday was dog $%$&. We have seven NFL Plays that will crush the books today!
Browns +7 over Bengals
This in state rivalry seems one sided, but from what I saw of Cincy they might need some work. Look at the Ravens turnovers last week and still the Bengals almost lost that game. The Browns got rid of Charlie Frye and to me that is a statement. Derrick Anderson is a good QB and will be going against a bad defense. Look for Cleveland to keep this closer then Vegas thinks.
Detroit -3 over Minnesota
I know the Raiders stink, but Detroit exploited what may be the best defense in the AFC last week with ease. Minnesota's final score was not as a rout as it looked and I just don't think Tavaris Jackson is good enough to score or keep up with a Mike Martz offense. Kitna looked great last week and at home watch out!
Good Luck
Bob Balfe
posted by phantom
Sept. 16 2007 12:23pm -
0 likes
Northcoast --
3.5 New Orleans
3 Chicago, GB under
Top Opinions: Jax, Pitt, NE, Oakland, Carolina
posted by phantom
Sept. 16 2007 12:24pm -
0 likes
Kelso
10 units Atlanta + 10 @ Jax
5 units Lions -3 v. Minn
5 units Bears -12 v. KC
5 units Chargers +3.5 @ Pats
posted by phantom
Sept. 16 2007 12:24pm -
0 likes
Ultra Sports
4 UNITS JETS +11
3 UNITS 49ERS +3
3 UNITS TB +4
___________
Dave Scandaliato
Free NFL Pro Football Pick: CLEVELAND BROWNS +7
Michael Cannon
30 Dime –
BENGALS ( Buy the ½ point if your line is -7 ½ )
Lay the points with the Bengals today on the road against the Browns.
Cincinnati has dominated this series recently, winning five straight (4-1 ATS) and six of the last eight meetings.
Cleveland looked terrible in last week’s loss to Pittsburgh, and although I doubt they’ll be as bad this week they still don’t have the firepower to stay within a touchdown of the Bengals today.
Cincinnati quarterback Carson Palmer didn’t look like he was on in last Monday’s win over the Ravens, but he still managed to complete 20-of-32 passes for 194 yards and two touchdowns. He did, however, look like he was completely back from his knee injury suffered in January 2006, so I expect him to pick it up even more this week against the Browns.
With Cleveland’s quarterback situation in disarray right now, Cincinnati should be able to come up with some turnovers which could put this game out of reach in a hurry.
The Bengals won and covered both games against the Browns last year by a combined score of 64-17. Coach Marvin Lewis has Cincinnati on a 15-4-1 ATS run in its last 20 road games.
The Browns are just 4-11-1 ATS in their last 16 games against AFC North opponents and 3-9-1 ATS in their last 13 as a home dog.
Lay the points with Cincinnati and remember to buy the ½ point if your line is -7 ½.
5 Dime –
STEELERS
Lay the points with the Steelers today at home over the Bills.
Buffalo limps into this game with several key defensive players out due to injuries. They lost linebackers Keith Ellison and Coy Wire, safety Ko Simpson and cornerback Jason Webster in last week’s loss to the Broncos.
That is going to put them at a severe disadvantage against the Steelers today.
Pittsburgh’s new offensive coordinator Bruce Ariens promised to open things up this year and it showed in last week’s win over the Browns. Quarterback Ben Roethlisberger threw for four TDs and he may very well duplicate that effort today.
That’s because the Bills were gouged for 171 yards on the ground last week against Denver and the Steelers will try to do the same thing with Willie Parker.
If Buffalo decides to stack it in to stop the run, that’s going to leave Hines Ward and Santonio Holmes one-on-one and Big Ben could have a field day going deep against a depleted Buffalo secondary.
Of course, if Buffalo decides to play it aggressive against the pass by rushing upfield, that will leave gaping holes for Parker to run through and he’s a threat to take it the distance against such a strategy.
On defense, the Steelers picked up in Game One where they left off in the preseason, namely pressuring the quarterback and forcing turnovers.
Since J.P. Losman still hasn’t figured out this whole NFL quarterback thing yet, look for him to make some mistakes against the Steelers pressure. The Steelers are one of the best teams in the league at stopping the run which forces teams to turn one-dimensional against them. When that happens, they can make life miserable for opposing QB’s.
This is a big number for the Steelers to cover, but considering the injuries to Buffalo’s defense they should be able to dictate the tempo of the game.
Lay the points as the Steelers grab the home win and cover.
VIKINGS
Take the points with the Vikings today on the road over the Lions.
The linemaker must have bought into Jon Kitna’s prediction of a 10-win season for Detroit, otherwise history would indicate this line would be reversed, even with the Lions playing at home.
That’s because Minnesota has absolutely owned Detroit, having won 10 straight meetings over the last five years. Minnesota is also 4-0 ATS in the last four.
The Vikings already know the Lions will be throwing all game, due to the fact that Kevin Jones is still recovering from a foot injury sustained last year. It probably wouldn’t matter much if Jones were healthy for this contest because the Vikes own one of the best run defenses in the league.
Kitna still has a tendency to turn the ball over and struggles inside the red zone, so Minnesota should be able to keep their offense in check today.
On offense, the Vikings have a stud in rookie running back Adrian Peterson, who ran for 103 yards in his NFL debut and added 60 yards receiving.
Detroit has one of the worst defenses in the league, so Minnesota should be able to dictate the pace of this game, relying on Peterson running behind a physical offensive line and quarterback Tarvaris Jackson hitting plays downfield with play action.
The Vikings are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 against NFC North opponents and 14-5 ATS in their last 19 within the NFC.
Detroit is just 3-8 ATS in its last 11 against NFC foes.
Take the points with Minnesota and don’t be shocked if they stretch their winning streak to 11 games against Detroit today.
Sunday's Late NFL Action...
10 Dime –
CHARGERS
Take the points with the Chargers tonight on the road over the Patriots.
New England has had plenty of distractions this week with the controversy surrounding coach Bill Belichick and the “Spygate†incident against the Jets in Week 1.
Don’t be surprised if they are a little sluggish against a San Diego team hellbent on exacting revenge for last season’s playoff loss.
The Patriots are shorthanded on defense with Rodney Harrison out with a suspension and Richard Seymour injured. They are two of the Pats’ best defensive players and it’s going to be difficult for them to stop LaDainian Tomlinson and company.
The Chargers are 12-1-2 ATS in their last 15 games as an underdog and 10-1-2 ATS in their last 13 as a road dog. Their only three losses last year (including playoffs) were by three points each.
New England went 2-5-1 ATS last season at home.
Take the points with the Chargers as they get their revenge for last season’s playoff loss to the Patriots.
posted by phantom
Sept. 16 2007 12:26pm -
0 likes
Pointwise Late Service
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
3 Chicago
3 San Francisco
2 Buffalo
2 Dallas
2 Philadelphia
posted by phantom
Sept. 16 2007 12:26pm -
0 likes
Lenny Del Genio's Oddsmaker's Blowout-NFL (4-1 start to the '07 FB season!)
Play on the Seahawks at 4:05 ET. The Cards are off a MNF loss at San Francisco, while Seattle opened its season with a 20-6 win over the Bucs. Cardinals QB Matt Leinart struggled in his first career Opening Night start, as he completed just 14-of-28 throws for a mere 102 yards and was intercepted twice. Arizona, which averaged just 83.6 ypg rushing LY (30th), had 161 yards on 38 attempts (4.2), which makes Leinart's performance even more disappointing. Seattle did an effective job of mixing the run and pass in the Tampa Bay win, with Alexander recording his 36th career 100-yard game (27-105 with one TD) and Hasselbeck completing better than 70 percent of his throws while not committing a turnover (17-24 for 222 yards with one TD pass). This is Ken Whisenhunt's first regular season home game but is that really any reason to play Arizona? The Cards went 0-4 in the preseason and while the team's defense played very well for almost all of the Monday night game, when it counted, the Cards allowed the 49ers to drive 86 yards on 12 plays for the game-winning score. The Cards beat the Seahawks 27-21 as a three-point home dog LY but the Seahawks were an injury-plagued team in '06. Seattle gave up a pair of TOs that led to 14 Arizona points and still had a great chance to steal the win on its final drive of the game. Forget Seattle's 0-4 mark as a road favorite in '06. This year's team should win 11 or 12 games. The Cards have failed to make the playoffs for EIGHT straight years (longest active drought) and are well on their way to an 0-2 start. Lay the short price. Seattle is my Oddsmaker's Blowout
posted by phantom
Sept. 16 2007 12:26pm -
0 likes
Lenny Del Genio's 20* NFL Rivalry of the Month (6-1 or 86% ATS with FB 20*s in '07!)
Play on the Raiders at 4:15 ET. While the Raiders were a total mess last year, they were able to cover both games against their hated rivals, the Denver Broncos. Oakland's D was quite remarkable in '06. Despite getting no help at all from an offense that ranked dead-last in both ypg and ppg, the Raiders finished the season No. 3 in total defense and first against the pass. Denver managed just 30 points in its two wins (non-covers) against Oakland and there's no reason to see a different result this time around. Oakland's McCown passed for over 300 yards LW but he's banged up, which means Daunte Culpepper will get the start. The Raiders are famous for giving "washed up" players a second chance and it was not too long ago that Culpepper was considered one of the NFL's top QBs. Denver QB Jay Cutler also topped 300 yards passing LW (first of his six-game career) but despite Denver outgaining Buffalo 470-184 in yards last week, Denver needed a "hurry up" FG from Elam to escape with a 15-14 win (another non-cover). The phrase "non-cover" seems to fit Denver well lately, as the team finished last year just 1-7 ATS in its last eight games and LW's ATS loss means the Broncos have failed to cover EIGHT of their last nine games. I realize that it's sometimes tough to watch the Raiders with their excessive penalties and general stupidity (not to mention three missed FGs last week!) but under Lane Kiffin the offense looked pretty good against Detroit, even with a mediocre QB like McCown. Remember, Denver's made wholesale changes in their coaching staff and new DC Jim Bates is installing new schemes. The DL is almost all new and Denver really misses MLB Al Wilson (his play and leadership). How can Denver be this big of a favorite? Oakland is my 20* Rivalry Game of the Month.
posted by phantom
Sept. 16 2007 12:27pm -
0 likes
NFL SUPER SYSTEM GAME OF THE WEEK!
Marc Lawrence
Be sure to score with Marc Lawrence NFL SUPER SYSTEM GAME OF THE WEEK on Sunday's card. This week's SUPER SYTEM is 14-2 ATS in all games since 1980, with a perfect 10-0 ATS tightener inside the game that applies today! Learn the SUPER SYSTEM and win good today!
Cleveland +6
posted by phantom
Sept. 16 2007 12:27pm -
0 likes
Hank Goldberg
San Diego
Cinn
New Orleans
SF
Seattle
posted by phantom
Sept. 16 2007 12:27pm -
0 likes
Sebastian
20* Tease 6.5 pts. Pitt/Hou
10* NO -3
20* Cle +7
20* Mia +4
20* Oak +10
10* Sea -3
100* Min +4
MLB
100* Pitt
posted by phantom
Sept. 16 2007 12:28pm -
0 likes
Northcoast
Marquee- New england
posted by phantom
Sept. 16 2007 12:28pm -
0 likes
GamblersWorld
Tip of the Day - September 16, 2007
TIP OF THE DAY
Sport: NFL Football
Game: 8:15PM, San Diego Chargers vs. New England Patriots
Prediction: New England Patriots
Current Line: -3.5
Over/Under: 47
Reason: The San Diego Chargers and the New England Patriots will both be
trying to pick up a win on Sunday when they battle at Gillette Stadium.
Oddsmakers currently have the Patriots listed as 3.5-point favorites
versus the Chargers, while the game's total is sitting at 47.
The Chargers defeated Chicago 14-3 as a 6-point favorite in Week 1. The
combined score fell UNDER the posted over/under total (42.5).
LaDainian Tomlinson threw a touchdown pass and also rushed for 25 yards
with a touchdown for San Diego, while Philip Rivers completed 22-of-31
passes for 190 yards with an interception.
The Patriots defeated the Jets 38-14 as a 6.5-point favorite in Week 1.
The combined score went OVER the posted over/under total (41).
Tom Brady completed 22-of-28 passes for 297 yards and three touchdowns
for New England in the win, while Randy Moss had an impressive Patriots'
debut, as he hauled in nine passes for 183 yards with a touchdown.
Team records:
San Diego: 1-0 SU, 1-0 ATS
New England: 1-0 SU, 1-0 ATS
San Diego most recently:
When playing in September are 5-5
When playing on turf are 6-4
After outgaining opponent are 9-1
When playing outside the division are 9-1
New England most recently:
When playing in September are 7-3
When playing on turf are 9-1
After outgaining opponent are 8-2
When playing outside the division are 8-2
A few trends to consider:
San Diego is 11-1 SU in its last 12 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of San Diego's last 6 games on the road
San Diego is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of San Diego's last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of New England's last 7 games
New England is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
New England is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games
New England is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
Next up:
San Diego at Green Bay, Sunday, September 23
New England home to Buffalo, Sunday, September 23
_________________
posted by phantom
Sept. 16 2007 6:00pm -
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Sportsbook
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The last 39 games the Eagles were favored, the UNDER was 26-9-4. In their last 22 NFC East contests, the UNDER was 13-6-3 for the Redskins. Each team's defense looked very impressive last week, giving up a combined 29 points. Their offenses, on the other hand, combined for just 29 points. Coming back from knee surgery, Donovan McNabb appeared a bit rusty, completing just 45.5% of his passes. The young Jason Campbell could struggle again as he faces the blitz happy Birds. It is hard to blame the 75% of early bettors that are backing the UNDER (38.5) given the numbers listed above.
posted by phantom
Sept. 17 2007 4:18pm -
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THIS GUY DID WELL THIS WEEKEND
FairWay Jay
3* Washington Redskins +7
posted by phantom
Sept. 17 2007 4:18pm -
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Wild Bill
6½ pt teaser: Eagles -½ & Under 46½ (1 unit)
posted by phantom
Sept. 17 2007 4:19pm -
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Chuck Frankiln
2000♦ PHILADELPHIA EAGLES
The Eagles are a profitable venture at home on Monday nights, going 13-6 SU and ATS the last 19 in that situation. If they are at home on Monday night and favored by more than three points they are on a perfect 7-0 SU and ATS run, winning those games by an average of over 17 points per game. Washington is only 7-18 SU and ATS their last 25 Monday night games. The Eagles will win by double-digits.
1000♦ CHICAGO CUBS
w/HILL over Cincinnati w/Arroyo
Note: Franklin - Big time loser yesterday!
posted by phantom
Sept. 17 2007 4:19pm -
0 likes
trey johnson
#231 Washington vs Philadelphia at 8:30 PM Est.
Neither Washington nor Philadelphia lit up the scoreboard last week. Washington escaped with a 16-13 overtime win against the Dolphins. Although they racked up 400 total yards the Redskins could not find the end zone. Philly dropped their opener to the Packers 13-16. They allowed 215 total yards while amassing 283.
I don’t see much changing in today’s contest. Head-to-head these two have gone under the total in 16 of their last 23 meetings for a 70% average. Washington has gone under in six of their last ten with one tie while the Eagles have gone under the total in five of their last seven contests.
Take the UNDER in another low scoring battle between these two rivals.
posted by phantom
Sept. 17 2007 4:20pm -
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Ben Burns
Washington Redskins
Philadelphia Eagles
u39.0 / 4 units
I'm playing on the Eagles and Redskins to finish UNDER (currently 39 at thegreek and bodog) the total. Both teams were involved in close low-scoring games in Week 1. The Redskins defeated the Dolphins by a score of 16-13. The Eagles saw an identical 16-13 score in their game vs. the Packers. However, unlike the Redskins they were on the losing end. Those results brought the UNDER to 6-3 the last nine times that the Eagles played in the month of September and a highly profitable 7-2-1 the last 10 times that the Redskins did so. Both teams have also been profitable to "under" bettors when featured in their current role. The Redskins saw the UNDER go 7-3-1 during the past two seasons when listed as road underdogs in the +3.5 to +9.5 range. Meanwhile, during the same stretch, the Eagles have seen the UNDER go 8-2 when listed as favorites in the -3.5 to -9.5 range. Looking at the recent series history and we find that both last season's meetings stayed below the total, including a combined 30 points (27-3 Eagles) when the teams met here at Philadelphia. That brought the UNDER to 6-1 the last seven meetings in this series. Looking back further and we find that 14 of the last 20 meetings in this series have stayed below the total. I'm expecting more of the same this evening with the UNDER improving to 11-5-1 the past 17 times that the Redskins played on Monday night.
posted by phantom
Sept. 17 2007 4:20pm -
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Brandon Lang
MONDAY
20 DIME
EAGLES
5 DIME
Redskins/Eagles UNDER
posted by phantom
Sept. 17 2007 4:20pm -
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Daniel Perkins ATS Advice
Washington(1-0) @ Philadelphia(0-1)
8:30pm EST
Line: Home -7
The Eagles are coming off a week one loss to the Green Bay Packers. Their offense looked terrible all game long and Mcnabb returning from a torn ACL injury looked slow and out of sync. The Redskins played classic Redskins football running the ball and controlling the clock. They came out of Miami with a 16-13 win and are making the trip to Philadelphia for tonight’s Monday Night match up. Look for a big statement game from quarterback Jason Campbell. Campbell was 12 for 21 with 222 yards last Sunday and ran for 30 yards on the ground. Playing a tough divisional rival on Monday Night is the best time to prove you are worth of the job and lead your team to a win. Look for exactly this tonight, Lito Shepard is not playing for the Eagles which opens up the deep passing patterns for Santana Moss. These two will definitely hook up for 1 or possible multiple touchdowns tonight. The Redskins will also bring the deadly two pronged running attack of Clinton Portis and Ladell Betts who can and will take over this game and open up the air for the young Redskins quarterback. The Skins strong defensive line will be able to stand up to the Eagles defensive backs which is key for the Redskins to win tonight. This is a key match up and the Redskins have shown they can win that battle after week one. The Eagles will be without L.J. Smith the star tight end and since made primary receiver. Brian Westbrook and Donovan Mcnabb will have to carry the offense on their shoulders against a Washington defence who has planned all week to bring the blitz and make Mcnabb run on a bummed knee. Look for several hidden blitz packages with a spy in the middle to make sure Mcnabb can not run anywhere for the first down. Putting Mcnabb on edge is key for Washington's defence and alike their offensive line they can do it. Look for a strong running game to open up the air for the Redskins. They will be able to put up points and keep the game close with their defence holding Philadelphia to minimal gains and on their heels all game long. It would not surprise me if Washington won this game outright. Take the Skins plus the points in this game.
Pick: Washington +7
posted by phantom
Sept. 17 2007 4:21pm -
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Karl Garrett
Washington at PHILADELPHIA (-7)
Easy comp play winner on Sunday on Pittsburgh squashing Buffalo, and now it is off to Monday night, and an easy total play on the UNDER between the Redskins and Eagles.
Both teams played UNDER the posted total last week, as both offenses looked very rusty trying to get things started. The G-Man sees more of the same tonight, as we have some serious series history on our side.
Last year both meetings between these NFC East division rivals stayed UNDER the posted total, to make it 6 of the last 7 in the series landing on the LOW side.
With Jason Campbell still learning the ropes under center for Washington, and Donovan McNabb still playing his way back into shape after the knee injury, I expect the coaches to keep the ball on the ground keeping the clock moving along.
Washington and Philadelphia both looked strong on defense last week, and I have a feeling it will be the defense that makes the bigger imprint on this game.
I am playing this one UNDER the total.
3♦ UNDER
posted by phantom
Sept. 17 2007 4:21pm -
0 likes
Mike Rose
Washington Redskins +7.0 (-115)
Mon Sep 17 '07 8:30p
This weeks Monday night match-up pits a couple of NFC East representatives who don’t like one another very much. Washington picked up a hard fought victory in OT last week at home over Miami, while the Eagles fumbled away their game in Lambeau Field against the GB Packers.
After sweeping the season series back in 2005, the Eagles returned the favor last season by beating the Skins in Washington 21-19 and at home by a 27-3 final count. Except for their success in 2005, the Redskins haven’t had much to boast about after playing the Eagles. Philly has dominated them throughout the L/5 years, but Washington will put forth a good showing tonight and let the rest of the conference know they will be a major player this season.
Washington was a team just killed with injuries a season ago. They hampered them in every facet of the game, and that’s the main reason their season win total dropped dramatically from 2005. Things look to be much different this time around though as the defense has looked much quicker, and the offense much more efficient. They churned out 400 yards of offense against a very good Miami defense last week, and only limited them to 273 total yards of offense on the other side of the ball. K Shaun Suisham also nailed all three of his FG attempts including the game winner in OT.
Washington HC Joe Gibbs’ formula for success in this league might be a bit outdated, but when you can hold onto the ball longer than your opponent and out gain them offensively, a win is most likely to follow provided you don’t turn the ball over. This is the type of attack we’ll see from the Skins all season long, as I believe they own a very underrated defense that they’ll be able to rely on more now that its healthy. Many only remember their poor play from a year ago when injuries crippled them, but keep in mind; they led the league in total defense in 2005 and won a game in the playoffs as well.
I respect Philly HC Andy Reid immensely since he’s a proven winner, but this is an awful lot of chalk for his club to lay in a crucial divisional game to kick-off the season. Grab the points with Washington as they keep this one a lot closer than the experts think.
posted by phantom
Sept. 17 2007 4:21pm -
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Pointwise Phone Play
2* Philly Eagles
posted by phantom
Sept. 17 2007 4:22pm -
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Fast Eddie
NFL
10* $100 Regular Play -
Washington Redskins vs Philadelphia Eagles
The Under is 19 - 10 the last 29 games in this series since 1992. The Eagles are 25 - 10 Under after allowing 4 or less yards/play in their previous game since 1992 and they are 8 - 1 Under after a loss by 3 points or less on the road since 1992. The Redskins are 7 - 0 Under on the road when playing on Monday night since 1992 and they are 17 - 6 Under after gaining 175 or more rushing yards in their last game since 1992 and the Redskins are 20 - 8 Under after outrushing opponent by 100 or more yards in their last game since 1992.
Betting system says any team where the total is 35.5 to 42 points - after 1 or more consecutive losses, team that had a winning record last season " EAGLES " that the under is 84 - 40.
Play the Under 39
__________________
posted by phantom
Sept. 17 2007 4:22pm -
0 likes
Carlo Campanella
These NFC East rivals opened their seasons on opposite ends of 16-13 final scores on Sunday. Washington held off Miami, 16-13, for the win in OT, while Philadelphia was just nipped in Green Bay, 13-16. Willing to lay the points with this Monday night home chalk as we find Philadelphia at a profitable 11-4 ATS as home favorites on MNF, and an extremely profitable 10-1 ATS following a SU favored loss since HC Andy Reid took the reigns back in 1999!
7* Play On Philadelphia
posted by phantom
Sept. 17 2007 4:23pm -
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ATS Lock Club
4 Unit Redskin +6.5
posted by phantom
Sept. 17 2007 4:23pm -
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The Force
Philadelphia Eagles -6.5 Monday night.
posted by phantom
Sept. 17 2007 4:23pm -
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Doc's Sports
2* Eagles -6.5
posted by phantom
Sept. 17 2007 4:24pm -
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Scott Spreitzer--
ko..............................indians
5 star total..................tex over 9.5
special release............................skins
5 star total...................................under 38.5
posted by phantom
Sept. 17 2007 5:58pm -
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Northcoast Sports Marquee Play is on the Over 38.5 in tonights football game.
posted by phantom
Sept. 17 2007 5:59pm -
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Sebastian Sports
7 - Atl under 9 1/2
10 - Houston
10 - Toronto
20 - Cleveland
20 - Phillies
posted by phantom
Sept. 17 2007 5:59pm -
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Larry Ness
15* Monday Night Madness (Skins/Eagles)
15* Philadelphia
posted by phantom
Sept. 17 2007 5:59pm