CFB WEEK3 SERVICE PLAYS
Power play Is West Virginia
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posted by phantom
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Posted: Fri Sep 14th 2007, 9:31am Post subject:
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Chris Jordan
600♦ WEST VIRGINIA
Ranked fourth in the nation, the Mountaineers are already averaging 55 points per game. Last season, with the same two offensive stalwarts in place, West Virginia posted a 45-spot on the Terrapins, winning by 18 points. And if there was anyone who actually thought Maryland would be able to balance the threat – stop Steve Slaton and Pat White – and grind it out on offense to run the clock down, let me take you back to last week:
Marshall held a 13-6 lead and every news ticker and scoreboard show at that time was talking about an upset in the making. Then West Virginia scored three touchdowns in the third quarter and additional trip in the final 15 minutes of the game.
Now I know WVU's two wins came against Western Michigan and the Herd, but they were impressive wins in my eyes. For the Terps, we're talking about wins against Villanova and Florida International, the latter of which held Maryland to a modest 270 total yards and 14 first downs. This is a dull offense that simply won't be able to keep up with the Mountaineers, who now have a kid named Noel Devine, who's a gem in the making. He was supposed to be a backup, and has turned into a sidekick.
Forget the trends in this game, I could genuinely care less about the numbers in this one; I like West Virginia to roll hard over the Terps.
300♦ PADRES (LIST Maddux and Wells)
You're going to give me one of baseball's hottest pitchers money against a team he owns?
Fine by me, as I side with my boy from Vegas in this NL West showdown. Mad Dog won for the seventh time in his past eight starts, allowing just one run over six solid frames. The Rockies were able to nail just three hits off the veteran righty, who retired 13 of the final 14 batters he faced.
He's now on a remarkable run of 54 1/3 straight innings without a walk. He's won both starts against the Dodgers this season – lasting 13 innings and giving up just four earned runs. Dating back to last season, before he joined them, he's actually 4-0 in his last four outings against Los Angeles, and is sporting a stifling 2.00 ERA against it. Play the road dog – the Mad Dog – in this one.
This was originally slated as the Dog of the Day, thus the analysis you're reading. But with the late pitching change to David Wells, Maddux is the pitcher in this one. Nonetheless, I still like the value with the Padres and Maddux.
100♦ ASTROS (LIST Williams and Trachsel)
Go against Steve Tracshel in this one, as he is 3-8 with a suitcase in hand, and sports a 5.86 ERA along the way. And though Woody Williams is 0-2 in his last three starts – like Trachsel – his innings have increased in each start, lasting from 4, to 5, to 6 innings.
And though he was tagged with the loss, it was a quality start against the Mets, lasting six innings and giving up three earned runs. Houston's right-handed specialist has been solid against the Cubbies in four starts this season – despite a 1-1 record – as he's lasted 24 innings and given up a measly six earned runs. I like the home team here, with Williams as our pitcher of record.
posted by phantom
Sept. 13 2007 5:10pm -
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Jimmy Broadway
500 Stars Under Airforce/TCU
300 Stars WV
200 Stars Airforce
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posted by phantom
Sept. 13 2007 5:11pm -
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ATS Lock Club:
3* West Virginia -16
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posted by phantom
Sept. 13 2007 5:12pm -
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Sportsbook Game of the Day:
Over the last 3 seasons, TCU has been a huge money maker for bettors as their 19-7 against the spread (ATS) record indicates. Over the same time period, they are 12-4 ATS versus conference opponents. The last two times these teams matched-up, TCU won by an average of 31 points. TCU has yet to give up a point in the first half of both or their games, which could spell disaster for a team like Air Force who doesn't pose much of a threat through the air. Given the data above, it isn't surprising that about 87% of the early cash is backing TCU (-8).
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posted by phantom
Sept. 13 2007 5:12pm -
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ATS ADVANTAGE: WEST VIRGINIA and OVER
TCU (1-1 SU and ATS) at Air Force (2-0, 1-0 ATS)
Like Maryland, Air Force will have payback in mind tonight when it attempts to snap a four-game losing skid to TCU as these Mountain West Conference rivals clash in Colorado Springs, Colo.
Air Force opened Mountain West play with a 20-12 upset win at Utah as a 7½-point road underdog, holding on for the win after stopping the Utes on consecutive tries from the Falcons’ 1-yard line. Air Force’s option offense was in midseason form against Utah, piling up 334 rushing yards while averaging 5.3 yards per carry.
TCU squandered a 10-0 first-half lead at then-No. 7 Texas last week and went on to lose 34-13 as an 8½-point underdog. The loss snapped the Horned Frogs’ nine-game SU winning streak (8-1 ATS) and sent them tumbling out of the Top 25.
While Air Force outrushed Utah 334-73 on Saturday, the Horned Frogs got outgained 176-43 on the ground against Texas.
TCU is on a 4-0 SU and ATS run against the Falcons, including back-to-back blowout wins the last two seasons. In 2005, the Frogs traveled to the Academy and laid a 48-10 beat-down on the Falcons as a one-point road underdog. Then last year, TCU crushed Air Force 38-14 as a 17-point home favorite. In that one, the Frogs led 38-0 after three quarters, during which they gave up just 77 total yards.
Despite last week’s non-cover against Texas, TCU is still on ATS runs of 18-8 overall, 8-3 as a favorite, 9-2 against teams with winning records and 16-5 when playing on grass.
Air Force is just 2-8 ATS in its last 10 overall, including 0-5 ATS at home. In fact, the Falcons went 2-4 at home last year (1-5 ATS).
The over is on runs of 5-2 for TCU, 4-2 for Air Force in lined games and 2-0 in the last two series clashes.
ATS ADVANTAGE: TCU and OVER
posted by phantom
Sept. 13 2007 5:12pm -
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Rocco Spacamuro
50 Units TCU -8
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posted by phantom
Sept. 13 2007 5:13pm -
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Chuck Franklin Thursday Plays:
2000♦ TCU
I don’t have much faith in Air Force in this game, even given the fact they are at home. They are 2-8 ATS in their past 10 games played in Colorado Springs. And they are facing a very well coached TCU Horned Frogs team that have finished in the top 25 four of the last six years. The Falcons’ win over the broken down Utah Utes last week won’t be enough to get their juices flowing for this much tougher TCU team. Air Force’s new head coach Troy Calhoun is still unproven and I see no signs of greatness yet. The Horned Frogs of TCU have covered the spread in this match-up with Air Force each of the last four meetings, and the last two seasons have been total wipeouts. Look for another such win today, as TCU will surely come out strong against the much weaker Falcons.
posted by phantom
Sept. 13 2007 5:13pm -
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Vegas experts
TCU
TCU lost at Texas last week 34-13 8as a 7.5-pt. dog. Air Force won at Utah 20-12 getting +7. Expect TCU to bounce back and Air Force to fall flat then in this one. TCU has won the last two meetings by 31 ppg. and is 11-4-1 ATS in Conference play since joining the Mountain West. Supporting angles say to Play Against - A home team (AIR FORCE) - a very good team (>=+10 PPG differential) against an average team (+/- 5 PPG differential), after scoring 3 points or less in the first half last game (36-11 since 1992, 76.6%) and Play On - Road favorites (TCU) - after gaining 3.75 or less yards/play in their previous game, with 5 offensive starters returning. (27-6 since 1992, 81.8%). Play on TCU.
posted by phantom
Sept. 13 2007 5:13pm -
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Michael Cannon Money Train Thursday Picks:
20 Dime –
TCU
Take Tcu tonight for the road win and cover over Air Force.
The Horned Frogs come into this game on the heels of their 34-13 meltdown loss at Texas last week. They actually led 10-0 at halftime before they fell apart.
Now that Tcu doesn’t have to deal with any BCS talk for a while, they can focus their full attention on Air Force. The fact is, Air Force doesn’t match up with this Tcu team at all, as the Horned Frogs are on a 4-0 SUATS run against the Falcons, including back-to-back blowout wins the last two seasons.
Tcu’s team speed on defense wreaks havoc on the Falcon’s option, and with the return of defensive end Tommy Blake I expect more of the same tonight.
Air Force is trying to balance out its attack this year, but they are still running the ball at a 4:1 ratio which plays right into Tcu’s strength.
Tcu is 30-7 ATS when they win straight up on the road against a conference opponent and that number improves to 10-1 ATS when the Horned Frogs are coming off a loss.
Air Force is just 2-8 ATS in its last 10 overall, including 0-5 ATS at home.
Lay the points with Tcu as they win and cover over Air Force.
5 Dime –
WEST VIRGINIA
Lay the big number with West Virginia on the road over Maryland.
The Mountaineers survived a bit of a scare last week at Marshall, as they trailed 16-13 midway through the third quarter before pulling away for a 48-23 win.
The amazing thing about that game was West Virginia actually covered the big 24 ½-point spread when it looked like they might suffer a huge upset loss.
That right there shows me this team knows how to make the necessary adjustments midstream to pull away from an eager opponent playing over its head.
The Mountaineers just have too much speed on offense with quarterback Pat White and running back Steve Slaton. Toss in the diminutive freshman running back Noel Devine, another speed burner who has three touchdowns on only 13 touches, and the Mountaineer attack is just flat-out lethal.
Maryland doesn’t have an explosive attack on offense to keep pace in this one, so Wvu should pull away in the second-half when the adrenaline wears off for the Terps.
West Virginia is on an 11-2 ATS run in weekday games and a 9-2 ATS tear on the road.
Maryland is just 4-9 ATS in its last 13 home games.
Lay the points with West Virginia as they run away, literally, with this one.
posted by phantom
Sept. 13 2007 5:14pm -
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Wayne Root
Chairman - Maryland
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posted by phantom
Sept. 13 2007 5:14pm -
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Sebastian
NCAAF
10* WVU -15.5
20* Air Force +8
posted by phantom
Sept. 13 2007 5:14pm -
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Scott Sprietzer - Tcu
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posted by phantom
Sept. 13 2007 5:14pm -
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Tom Stryker
2* TCU
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posted by phantom
Sept. 13 2007 5:15pm -
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Ben Burns NCAA
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Regular:
air force under TOM
maryland ROAST
posted by phantom
Sept. 13 2007 5:16pm -
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our buddy ACE-ACE aka Allan Eastman
Record 7-4 +$754.00
Usc- 9 1/2 -102...........................$400
Mich-7 1/2-104............................$300
Kansas -22 1/2...........................$400
posted by phantom
Sept. 13 2007 5:18pm -
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Executive
Sat , September 15 12:30
AUBURN -13
over Miss State
FREE SELECTION ANALYSIS
Auburn has blown away Miss State in their previous 5 meetings winning by an
average margin of 31 points.
They shut them out the past 2 years, as they won
by an average score of 31-0.
This is Auburn's Conference opener and their 3rd consecutive home game of the season.
Look for them to bounce back in a big way off their
loss last week to So.Florida.
posted by phantom
Sept. 13 2007 6:02pm -
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THE GOLD SHEET
COLLEGE KEY RELEASES
AUBURN by 24 over Mississippi State
MICHIGAN STATE by 18 over Pittsburgh
BOSTON COLLEGE by 3 over Georgia Tech
UTEP by 4 over New Mexico State
posted by phantom
Sept. 13 2007 6:02pm -
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BIG AL'S FULL SERVICE CLIENTS
5* kentucky
3* ga tech - washington
OPINIONS - kansas - notre dame - tulsa
Saturday:
Our college football selections include Kentucky, Notre Dame, Washington, Tulsa, Kansas, and Georgia Tech.
Kentucky -- At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Kentucky Wildcats plus the points over Louisville. Steve Kragthorpe's Cardinals struggled last Thursday against Middle Tennessee State. The Cards won, but surrendered 42 points in the process. That does not bode well for Saturday night's game against rival Kentucky, whose offense is clicking on all cylinders. The Wildcats own blowout wins over Kent State (56-20) and Eastern Kentucky (50-10) and fall into a super system that is a perfect 15-0 ATS since 1981. What we want to do is play on any home dog getting 2+ points that scored 43+ points in its previous 2 games, provided it did not give up 35 or more points in its previous game. Take Kentucky plus the points.
Notre Dame -- At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Notre Dame Fighting Irish over Michigan. Of course the storyline of this game will be the fall from grace of College Football's two most storied programs. Notre Dame has been embarassed by both Georgia Tech and Penn State, and has rushed for negative yardage on the season (67 rushes for -8 yards). And offensive guru Charlie Weis' men have yet to score an offensive touchdown. But Michigan's performance has been even worse (if that's possible). The Wolves lost 34-32 to Appalachian State, and then were destroyed 39-7 by Oregon, as the Ducks rushed for 331 yards on 51 carries. Clearly, Ron English's defense resembles swiss cheese more than the impenetrable unit that took the field for much of last season. But regardless of the storylines, one thing has remained constant in this rivalry over the last 27 years: the underdog covers! And if the underdog is NOT going into revenge, it's a perfect 14-0 ATS since 1980. Last year, Michigan blasted Notre Dame 47-21. Look for the Irish to avenge that defeat on Saturday. Take the points.
Washington -- At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Washington Huskies plus the points over Ohio State. Last week, we used Washington as a home dog over Boise State, and Tyrone Willingham's men snapped Boise's 15-game win streak. Can Washington win back-to-back big games? My database indicates that the Huskies will do just that. Consider that, since 1980, road teams are a horrific 5-25 ATS in their 3rd game of the season, if they enter off two home wins, and their foe is off back to back SU/ATS wins, provided our road team did not score more than 37 points in its previous game (Ohio State scored just 20). And if our home team is off an upset win, then our 25-5 stat zooms to an almost perfect 11-1 ATS. Take Washington.
Georgia Tech -- At 8 pm, our selection is on the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets minus the points over Boston College. Ga Tech has two blowout wins thus far in 2007: 33-3 over Notre Dame, and 69-14 over Samford. Now, Chan Gailey's men fall into a terrific system that's cashed 100% since 1980. What we want to do is play on any unrested, single-digit home favorite that scored 60+ points, if it's matched up against a foe off back to back SU/ATS wins. With Boston College indeed off two SU/ATS wins (over NC State and Wake Forest), we'll fade Jeff Jagodzinski's men and lay the points with Georgia Tech.
Tulsa -- At 9 pm, our selection is on the Tulsa Golden Hurricane plus the points over BYU, as Tulsa falls into a Game 2 System of mine that has cashed 60% since 1980. What we want to do is play on any rested home dog off a win in Game 1. And Tulsa also falls into a 2nd system of mine that is 69-29 ATS which also involves playing on rested teams in Game 2. After leaving his assistant coaching position at Tulsa for the head coach job at Rice, Todd Graham returned this season to take the top job (following Steve Kragthorpe's departure for Louisville). Graham did a super job last year at Rice (the Owls won and covered their final six regular season games), and led that school to its first bowl bid in 45 years. Look for Graham to have a super year at Tulsa. Take the Golden Hurricane plus the points.
Kansas -- At 7 pm, our selection is on Kansas, as the Jayhawks fall into several 'momentum' systems of mine following their 52-7 and 60-0 wins over Central Michigan and SE Louisiana. Now, the Jayhawks will try to avenge their 37-31 loss at Toledo in Week 3 last season. And home favorites priced from -2 to -33 points off a shutout win of 40+ points are a super 79% ATS since 1980 vs. an opponent off a loss. With the Rockets off a 52-31 blowout loss at Central Michigan, we'll fade Toledo and lay the big number with Kansas. Good luck, as always, Al McMordie.
posted by phantom
Sept. 13 2007 6:02pm -
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Gavazzi Steamrollers
5% MICHIGAN ST
Unfortunately, I did not heed the advice about getting “dogged†in my article entitled “Don’t get DOGGED†available under “Free Stuff†on this site. Our 5% play Northwestern won but did not cover 36-31 with the final falling above the week 1 line but below the week 2 line. This week, however, I see plenty of value as we return to a Spartan team who won as a 5% Steamroller in week 1, 55-18, over UAB when they out gained the Blazers a balanced 593 to 226. Look for more of the same today against a Pitt team who could gain just 321 yards in defeating Grambling LW. That was even worse than- the 326 yards they gained against lowly E. Mich in week 1. A major reason for this is the fact they have lost their #1 QB, Stull, #1 WR Kinder and have an unsettled OL. Now they must step way up in class to face a rejuvenated Spartan team who is allowing just 30 RYPG on 1.0 YPR. Meanwhile, RB’s Ringer and Caulcrick are balancing the offense behind QB Hoyer who is averaging 220 YPG on 68% C. LY State rolled Pitt 38-10, running over them for 335 yards. Mark that down as a potential final for today, though the margin may be more.
3% OREGON
Seldom do you get a week 3 (2-0) SU ATS HF who covered by 39 points LW who is not a public favorite. Yet, due to the 0-2 SU start by Michigan, Oregon gets little credit for their dismantling of the Wolves. Rather, we get a fair price because of Fresno’s reputation which was only enhanced by a 3 OT loss at A&M LW. The perception is that HC Hill will have his minions in bounce back mode against yet another Big Boy while Oregon will fall flat following their performance in The Big House. The truth is that Fresno is a very emotional team which feeds on it’s most recent result and stands 4-16 ATS off a loss. Most indicative for our purposes is the fact that Fresno was out rushed 318-139 by A&M LW while the balanced Oregon attack was Steamrolling Michigan for 624 yards including a 331-144 overland advantage. Momentum works at a fair price equivalent to that of week 1.
3% VA TECH
We switch to bounce back mode to back this week 3 National power house who enters at 0-2 ATS following a 7-48 embarrassment at LSU LW. In (2) games they have been out rushed 439-104. Enter the perfect victim, the Ohio U. Bobcats. To rejuvenate the offense HC Beamer will insert true frosh QB Taylor as the starter. Look for an offensive explosion today. The Bobcats have a poor recent history. LY Ohio scored a combined 13 points on a combined 49 RY in losing to Rutgers and Missouri. With graduation of all their starting LB’s, look for things to get worse. LW, they allowed LA Lafayette to total 534 yards including 277 RY on 5.5 YPR. Look for teams to return to a September form which finds Ohio to be a recent 9-21 ATS while VA Tech is 34-15 ATS vs. Non cons. Big time Bounce Back Steamroller at a price below that of week 1.
posted by phantom
Sept. 13 2007 6:03pm -
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SATURDAY
Pointwise Redsheet
89 Kansas 57 Toledo 13
89 Tennesee 22 Florida 23
88 Michigan State 38 Pittsburgh 20
88 Indiana 41 Akron 17
88 Arizona State 56 San Diego State 7
87 Missouri,New Mexico,Penn State,Texas Tech
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posted by phantom
Sept. 13 2007 6:03pm -
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3 Star Selection
***MIAMI OHIO 24 Cincinnati (-8.5) 23
09:00 AM Pacific, 15-Sep-07
Cincinnati won for me last week as a 3-Star Best Bet in their 34-3 romp over Oregon State, but the situation is not good for the Bearcats as they hit the road for the first time and Cincy is now overrated. The Bearcats have won their two games by a combined 93- 6 score, but they are averaging a +4.5 in turnover margin, which certainly isn’t going to continue. Cincy only out-gained Oregon State 4.8 yppl to 4.1 yppl last week, so they weren’t nearly as dominant as the final score indicates and Miami-Ohio is a missed kick away from being 2-0 after losing in 3 OT’s at Minnesota last week. The Redhawks upset Ball State on the road in their opener and they are a much improved club after last season’s uncharacteristic 2-10 record. My ratings only favor Cincinnati by 4 ½ points in this game and Miami is certainly capable of an upset win here given that the Bearcats apply to a negative 31-75-1 ATS road favorite letdown situation (that worked against Cal at Colorado State last week). Cincinnati, meanwhile applies to a 109-46-1 ATS home underdog situation and the record is 19-6 ATS for the home dog when both of those situations apply to the same game. Miami’s starting running back Brandon Murphy is out, but backup Andre Bratton is solid. One concern is the questionable status of top defensive player Joey Hudson, who led the team in tackles, tackles for loss and interceptions last season. Hudson is worth 1 ½ points based on last year’s stats, so I’d still only favor Cincy by 6 points if Hudson doesn’t play. I’ll take Miami-Ohio in a 3-Star Best Bet at +7 points or more and for 2-Stars at +6 ½ or +6 points.
3 Star Selection
***KANSAS (-23.0) 42 Toledo 9
04:00 PM Pacific, 15-Sep-07
Kansas was very impressive in their 52-7 opening day win over a decent Central Michigan team and the Jayhawks followed that up with a 62-0 rout of SE Louisiana last Saturday. Kansas is no fluke. The Jayhawks’ defense struggled a bit last year with just 3 returning starters, but they look as good as the 2004 and 2005 defensive units, which had an average rating of 0.9 yards per play better than average. This year’s team finally has an offense to compliment their defense, as sophomore quarterback Todd Reesing has looked sharp while the rushing attack has been better than average as well. Toledo was a bad team last season and they don’t appear to be any better this year after getting blown out by Purdue 24-52 at home in week 1 and then losing 31-52 at Central Michigan last week – the same Central Michigan team that Kansas beat 52-7. The Rockets have averaged just 5.0 yppl while allowing a horrendous 7.2 yppl in their two games and they won’t be able to compete with Kansas in this game. The Jayhawks apply to a very strong 68-15-1 ATS fundamental indicator, a 110-43-1 ATS home momentum situation and a 46-8 ATS momentum situation. Toledo, meanwhile, is just 12-22-3 ATS on the road under coach Todd Amstutz. My ratings favor Kansas by 23 ½ points and I’d favor the Jayhawks by 37 points if I only used this year’s games instead of incorporating my pre-season ratings. The Jayhawks certainly have incentive after dominating last year’s game against Toledo only to lose in overtime thanks to -5 in turnover margin. I’ll take Kansas in a 3-Star Best Bet at -24 points or less, for 4-Stars at -21 points or less and for 2- Stars from -24 ½ to -26 points.
2 Star Selection
**KENTUCKY 40 Louisville (-6.5) 37
04:30 PM Pacific, 15-Sep-07
Louisville’s offense is as explosive as ever, but the Cardinals allowed 42 points on 564 yards at 10.3 yards per play in their 58-42 win over Middle Tennessee State last week. Kentucky has averaged 301 rushing yards at 7.8 yards per rushing play in the first two games and senior quarterback Andre Woodson is among the nation’s best quarterbacks after rating at 1.3 yards per pass play better than average last season with 31 touchdowns and just 7 interceptions (he’s now gone 206 passes without throwing a pick). Kentucky will give up tons of yardage on the ground to Louisville but the Wildcats’ secondary is much better this season and the ‘Cats have certainly played better defensively than Louisville has so far this season. My ratings favor Louisville by 5 points, but Kentucky has actually been the better team so far this season. The reason for the play is not the line value but rather a number of strong situations that favor the Wildcats in this game. Kentucky applies to a 48-8-1 ATS subset of a 144-63-3 ATS home momentum situation while Louisville applies to a negative 93-167-10 ATS situation that plays against road favorites coming off a home game in which they allowed a lot of points (applied against Cal last week). I’ll take Kentucky in a 2-Star Best Bet at +4 points or more and I’d make Kentucky a 3-Star Best Bet if they become an underdog of 7 points or more again.
Strong Opinion
Mississippi St. 19 AUBURN (-13.0) 26
09:30 AM Pacific, 15-Sep-07
Mississippi State came through with a good effort last week at Tulane despite being in a very negative situation and I expect the Bulldogs to build off of that performance against an overrated Auburn team that is already 0-2 ATS. The Tigers lost straight up to South Florida, which really isn’t much of an upset, and that loss sets up Auburn in a negative 9-43-1 ATS situation and a negative 30-66 ATS situation. Both of those situations are based on last week’s upset loss and the record is 0-5 ATS when both apply to the same game. Mississippi State looked horrible in their opening 0-45 loss to LSU, but that loss doesn’t look so bad now that LSU just dominated Virginia Tech 48-7. In fact, Miss State held LSU to just 4.8 yards per play while Virginia Tech’s top notch defense gave up 599 yards at 8.3 yppl to the Tigers. Mississippi State’s offense performed pretty well offensively last week, averaging a solid 5.8 yppl, but that unit is still below average and will probably have some trouble moving the ball against a good Auburn defense. However, Miss State is good defensively and Auburn has struggled on offense in their first two games against good defensive teams (just 4.3 yppl). The only negative is that Auburn is 5-1 ATS as a double-digit favorite following a loss. My ratings favor Auburn by just 10 points and I’ll consider Mississippi State a Strong Opinion at +11 points or more and I’d take Mississippi State in a 2-Star Best Bet at +14 points or more.
Strong Opinion
UCLA (-14.0) 30 UTAH 10
02:00 PM Pacific, 15-Sep-07
Utah’s offense went from a potentially potent attack to a worse than average unit when top back Matt Asiata and talented quarterback Brian Johnson both were injured in a game 1 loss to Oregon State. Backup quarterback Tommy Grady isn’t mobile enough to run the option elements of the Utah offense and the Utes don’t have a back that can run well without the benefit of the option’s deception. Grady was an Oklahoma transfer but he hasn’t shown any of his promise in 1 ½ games so far, as he’s averaged just 4.2 yards per pass play this season. UCLA’s defense is one of the better units in the nation and they should have no trouble shutting down the crippled Utes’ attack. UCLA, meanwhile, should be able to pound the ball up the middle against a soft Utah defense front that lost two run-stuffing tackles to graduation and now are without senior DT Gabe Long, who suffered an MCL injury last week. Utah has surrendered an average of 297 yards per game at 5.7 yards per rushing play in two games while UCLA has averaged 5.8 yards per rushing play in their two games. Talented Bruins’ quarterback Ben Olsen has done a pretty good job throwing the football (6.4 yards per pass play), but Utah defends the pass well – although UCLA probably won’t need to throw the ball much given their projected domination running the ball. The Bruins apply to a very strong 131-53-3 ATS fundamental indicator while Utah applies to a negative 30-64-2 ATS situation that is based on their upset home loss to Air Force. My ratings favor UCLA by 12 points and I’ll consider UCLA a Strong Opinion at -14 points or less and I’d make UCLA a 2-Star Best Bet at -13 or less.
posted by phantom
Sept. 13 2007 6:20pm -
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SPYLOCK (5* Highest rated play ):
5* NEBRASKA
1* FLORIDA
1* BALL STATE
posted by phantom
Sept. 14 2007 9:06pm -
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Pure Lock college football member play
Hawaii minus the points
posted by phantom
Sept. 14 2007 9:07pm -
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Larry Ness' 20* Conference GOY (perfect 7-0 start with 20* plays in FB '07!)-Saturday
My 20* play is on Southern Miss at 6:00 ET. Jeff Bower may be the least appreciated coach in the nation. He enters his 17th season at Hattiesburg and after a 1-1 start in '07, has compiled a 113-78-1 mark. That includes taking the Golden Eagles to NINE bowls in the last 10 years (six wins, including C-USA's lone bowl win LY!). Skip Holtz has done a real nice job at East Carolina, as he took over a school which had gone 3-20 in '03 and '04 and is 13-13 since '05. More impressively, his ATS mark is 19-7! To open '07, the Pirates went into Blacksburg and played Va Tech well, losing 17-7 as almost a four-TD underdog. They then beat North Carolina 34-31 on a last-second FG last Saturday, for the school's first win over the Tar Heels since 1975 and just the SECOND in school history! QB Patrick Pinkney was great LW (406 YP and three TDs) but he gets little help from a rushing game that's averaged just 103 YPG (3.0 per). While the Pirates are home, they'll have a tough time with Southern Miss. East Carolina could easily be 'flat' off the North Carolina win plus Southern Miss will surely be focused after losing to EC last year at home! The Pirates scored on a 4th down play from the two-yard line, to send the game into OT with 13 seconds remaining. EC then won 20-17 in OT. That ended a five-game winning streak in the series for Southern Miss, in which it had outscored EC by the combined score of 174-66! QB Jeremy Young is now a senior and RB Damion Fletcher is off a freshman year in which he gained 1,388 YR (5.0 per) and scored 11 TDs. Revenge is a major motivating force here and Bower leads his team to yet another conference win. C-USA Game of the Year 20* Southern Miss.
Good Luck...Larry
posted by phantom
Sept. 14 2007 9:08pm -
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SATURDAY
Phil Steel's Private Play Hot Line
ACC Play-O-The Week
Georgia Tech - (over Boston College)
posted by phantom
Sept. 14 2007 9:08pm -
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BIG AL'S 100% (15-0) 5* NON-CONFERENCE DOG OF THE YEAR -
5* kentucky
Kentucky -- At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Kentucky Wildcats plus the points over Louisville. Steve Kragthorpe's Cardinals struggled last Thursday against Middle Tennessee State. The Cards won, but surrendered 42 points in the process. That does not bode well for Saturday night's game against rival Kentucky, whose offense is clicking on all cylinders. The Wildcats own blowout wins over Kent State (56-20) and Eastern Kentucky (50-10) and fall into a super system that is a perfect 15-0 ATS since 1981. What we want to do is play on any home dog getting 2+ points that scored 43+ points in its previous 2 games, provided it did not give up 35 or more points in its previous game. Take Kentucky plus the points.
posted by phantom
Sept. 14 2007 9:08pm -
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Mike Neri
5* Kansas
__________________
posted by phantom
Sept. 14 2007 9:09pm -
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rob ferringo
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COLLEGE SELECTIONS
4-Unit Play. Take #133 Tennessee (+7.5) over Florida (3:30 p.m., Saturday, Sept. 15)
You have to fade the national champs on general principle. And when you factor in that this is a rivalry game that has been decided by an average of 6.7 points over the last 10 years and 4.0 over the last three this is simply too many points. The home team is just 2-5 in this series and six of the past nine meetings have been decided by four points or less. Also, the Vols are 3-0 ATS as SEC dogs of 8.0 or more over the past decade and I think they’re better prepared for this game. UT has played two quality opponents in Cal and Southern Miss, while the Gators have beaten up cream puffs. We’ll take the points and the team with a chip on its shoulder.
4-Unit Play. Take #166 Alabama (-3) over Arkansas (6:45 p.m., Saturday, Sept. 15)
Last year the Razorbacks had a much better team and were playing at home, but barely escaped with an OT win over the Tide. This year Arkansas is not as good and is playing on the road against an improved team with revenge. I just don’t see how Alabama doesn’t win this game – and win it big. Arkansas simply is not as good as they were last year and the Tide is better. There is no lookahead situation here and the motivation of back-to-back OT losses is enough for ‘Bama to take this one.
4-Unit Play. Take #155 Southern Mississippi (-1) over East Carolina (6 p.m., Saturday, Sept. 15)
Right now is the perfect time to fade East Carolina, coming off an impressive game against a poor UNC team. Southern Miss, on the other hand, got slapped around by Tennessee. But that doesn’t mean they aren’t the much better team here. The Eagles are 9-2 against the Pirates since 1996, with SMU winning five of the last six by an average score of 32-14. Southern Miss is also 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings and 5-0-1 ATS in their last six at East Carolina. The Pirates stole a fluke win last year on the road, and I think the Eagles get revenge this year with a strong showing.
3-Unit Play. Take #187 New Mexico (+10) over Arizona (10 p.m., Saturday, Sept. 15)
Any time you have a team that can run the ball and play the type of defense that the Lobos do you’ll happily take the points. I don’t trust Willie Tuitama at QB for the Wildcats, and that Lobos secondary is one of the best that Arizona will see all year. New Mexico is 19-10-1 ATS as a road dog over the last seven years and 10-4 ATS in the last three.
3-Unit Play. Take #167 Boston College (+7) over Georgia Tech (8 p.m., Saturday, Sept. 15)
I simply think this is too many points in a game featuring two good teams. Also, I trust Matt Ryan more than I do Taylor Bennett and after blowout wins over Wake Forest and N.C. State I think that the Eagles have proven more than the Jackets have with wins over sad-sacks Notre Dame and Samford. This should be a grinder, one that I think B.C. can win, and thus there is value in taking the points.
2-Unit Play. Take #149 UCLA (-14) over Utah (5 p.m., Saturday, Sept. 15)
We’re going to keep going to the well until the well is dry with the Bruins. They hammered the Utes 31-10 last year in California, and while I do think that playing on the road will be much more difficult I also think that a veteran UCLA squad will remain focused. Utah has just been decimated by injuries, and will be without four offensive starters – their starting QB, RB, WR, and RT – and their young defense has gotten manhandled over the past two weeks.
2-Unit Play. Take #129 Eastern Michigan (+14.5) over Northern Illinois (Noon, Saturday, Sept. 15)
This is a lot of points to overcome for two offenses that don’t score much. Northern Illinois is only averaging 17 points per game and can’t be feeling too good about themselves after a loss to Southern Illinois. EMU has a wealth of experience and I think could be a surprise team in the MAC. I think they could win this one outright, and thus there’s value taking the points. Finally, the Eagles are 3-0 ATS in their last three trips to NIU.
1-Unit Play. Take #169 Duke (+16.5) over Northwestern (8 p.m., Saturday, Sept. 15)
Northwestern proved last week that it doesn’t deserve to be a double-digit dog and now they’re laying a ton of points to a team desperate for a win. The Wildcats are just 2-11 ATS as a home favorite since 2001 and will be without their stud running back Tyrell Sutton this week and Duke has covered in their of their last four trips to Chicago.
NFL SELECTIONS
7-Unit Play. Take #215 New Orleans (-3.5) over Tampa Bay (1 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 16)
Note: This is our NFL Game of the Month. I do endorse this play up to -4.0. It is pretty stable at -3.5 in Vegas but is -3.0 at a majority of the top nine online sportsbooks and that is our basis. Believe me, this will be a double-digit win so an extra half-point shouldn't factor in.
Since 1997, teams that started the year with two straight road games are 20-13 ATS (60.6) in Week 2. Favorites in that role (as in, favored in the second game) are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent). Those road teams are 13-6 ATS off a loss in Week 1, and 5-1 when instilled as a favorite after that loss. New Orleans is devalued after that undressing on the Thursday night opener, but they were actually winning that game early and were tied, with the ball, to start the second half. Their talent puts them in the top one-third of teams in this league while Tampa is still a bottom-third club. The Tampa offense can’t put the type of pressure on a team that the Colts can and I think that the Saints are just itching to show that their defense is actually better this season than last. Also, if Brian Kelly doesn’t play the Bucs are short one of their best corners. That’s not a place you want to be when Drew Brees comes to town. Sean Payton is 7-3 ATS on the road and New Orleans has covered four of five against the Bucs. Finally, the moneyline on this game is anywhere from 25 to 50 cents heavy, and that's a strong indicator.
4-Unit Play. Take #221 Seattle (-2.5) over Arizona (4 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 16)
This line is baffling. Until the Cardinals actually win some games they don’t deserve the respect that they get from the public, who is in love with them as a perpetual “sleeper teamâ€. They aren’t. The Cardinals are 6-18 ATS (25 percent) in September home games and 12-19 ATS in September divisional games. They are 0-4 ATS since 2003 in divisional home games in September. The Cardinals are 3-16 straight up and 2-10 ATS in home openers, they are coming off a short week, and they are facing a team with superior talent. Arizona will start two rookie offensive linemen against a veteran Seattle front seven. I simply don’t see how they will be able to withstand the pressure, and I don’t see them stopping an offense that is very familiar with their personnel.
4-Unit Play. Take ‘Over’ 37.0 Buffalo at Pittsburgh (1 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 16)
Over the past two years the Steelers are an astounding 13-1-2 against the total when playing at home. Buffalo’s defense is decimated – I mean completely decimated – and will be without as many as five starters. The Steelers have been throwing the ball more with Bruce Arians and I see them completely devastating the Bills. Pittsburgh is 6-2 ATS over the past five years with a line between 36.0 and 38.0. Further, the ‘over’ is 36-15-2 in Pittsburgh’s last 53 home games, 46-22-2 with them as a favorite, and 10-1-1 when they allow less than 15 points in the previous game. Buy onto 37 if you have to because it’s such a key number, but if the Bills can chip in 9-13 points this one won’t be in doubt at all.
4-Unit Play. Take ‘Over’ 34.5 Kansas City at Chicago (4 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 16)
Note: I endorse this play at 35.0 because that merely brings the push into play.
Chicago went 9-1 against the number last year at home and is 9-3 in Soldier Field when the total is between 33.5 and 35.5. The ‘over’ is 10-2 in Chicago’s last 12 home games, 16-6-1 in their last 23 overall, and 14-3-1 as a favorite. The Bears lost two starters on defense last week and the Chiefs will be without two of their better defenders (Jared Allen and Patrick Surtain). These two teams combined for six points last week so there’s a naturally overreaction toward the ‘under’. But there’s a system at work here that’s hit at nearly 73 percent ‘over’ for the past six years. Chicago’s first four home games last year saw an average of 45.5 combined points and four of the Bears’ last five home openers have gone ‘over’. Rex Grossman is notorious for this – answering critics with a 250-yard, 4 TD eruption when everyone is calling for his head.
3-Unit Play. Take #206 Tennessee (+7.5) over Indianapolis (1 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 16)
Two very good systems at work here. First, play on a home dog that won its last game outright vs. an opponent who was playing at home. This system hit at roughly 61 percent over the past 15 years. Next, play on a division home dog that won straight up on as an away dog the previous week. This system has hit at 66 percent over the past 15 years. I couldn’t have been more impressed with how physical Tennessee was last week and I think they can make the Colts uncomfortable with their style. Also, road teams favored by 7.5 or more were 38-63 ATS (37.6 percent) between 1997 and 2006.
2-Unit Play. Take #207 Houston (+7) over Carolina (1 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 16)
If the Panthers are an automatic play as an underdog (20-3-1 ATS) then they are also an automatic play against as a favorite. The Jake Delhomme-John Fox combo is 9-17-1 ATS as a home favorite, 3-7 ATS at home, and 3-12 ATS as a favorite between 4.0 and 7.0. Remember, the Panthers were on the verge of losing in St. Louis before two Steven Jackson fumbles handed them 14 points. I don’t see Carolina running the ball they way they did against an awful Rams defense, and this is play blends two basic tenets that have been very successful recently – playing the underdogs (58 percent ATS in 2006) and playing the AFC vs. the NFC.
2-Unit Play. Take #232 Philadelphia (-6.5) over Washington (8 p.m., Monday, Sept. 16)
Andy Reid is 10-1 ATS off a straight up loss as a favorite and Donovan McNabb is 16-7 ATS following a loss. The Eagles are 17-10 ATS playing at home as a favorite after a loss and - the coup de grace - they are 11-3 ATS as home chalk on Monday Night Football. Is this line about 1-3 points to much? Yes. But you can't argue with results. Washington is 3-7 ATS on MNF and have a young quarterback making his first road start. In Philly. The 'Skins lost Jon Jansen and I think their offensive line will suffer, especially against the blitz-happy Eagles. Finally, Washington is 10-5 ATS when scoring 21 or more points and 12-22 ATS when they don't. I don't see it happening for them this week.
BONUS SELECTION
3-Unit Play. TEASER: Take Chicago (-1.5), Jacksonville (-0.5), and Pittsburgh (-0.5).
Note: This is a 3-team sweetheart teaser which just about all online books offer. However, since all customers that use "local guys" may not be able to play this game it's simply a bonus play. I initially liked all three teams to cover their normal lines, and favorites of 8.0 or higher in Week 2 went 5-1 last year. However, over the past 10 years faves of -8.0 or higher this early in the year are just 13-18 ATS (41.9 percent) and if you throw out last year they were just 8-17 ATS (32 percent). For this bet to lose, one of these three teams would have to lose outright, basically, and I simply do not see that happening. I see Chicago 34-10, Jacksonville 24-13, and Pittsburgh 38-9. It's 10-cent juice on this bet and I like it as an online bonus for those of you that like the action.
That's it for this week. Good luck.
posted by phantom
Sept. 14 2007 9:09pm -
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HERD ( 6-3 )
Colin Cowherd ESPN Radio :
NOTRE DAME
FLORIDA
FRESNO STATE
KENTUCKY
Opinion- ALABAMA, UCLA
__________________
posted by phantom
Sept. 14 2007 9:13pm -
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Thanks for posting all this phantom, some good info.
Teeks75
posted by teeks75
Sept. 14 2007 9:30pm -
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Donn Wagner Alleghany Allalysis
4 stars under Alabama
4 stars under Miami Florida
posted by phantom
Sept. 15 2007 11:57am -
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Ats Lock Club
15* Alabama (-3)
7 *Washington (+3 1/2)
7 * Tennessee (+7 1/2)
6 * Southern Mississippi (-1)
5 * Georgia Tech (-6 1/2)
posted by phantom
Sept. 15 2007 11:57am -
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Marc Lawrence
5* GA Tech
4* Auburn
3* Navy
Upset: Miami-Ohio
posted by phantom
Sept. 15 2007 11:58am -
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Penthouse Picks
6% Alabama –3
5% Florida St –4
4% Byu –6
4% Indiana –13.5
3% Houston –14.5
3% Utep +5.5
posted by phantom
Sept. 15 2007 11:59am -
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ben burns
main event lock........nebraska
situational goy......tulsa
blowout......cal
revenge gow....unlv
regular plays.......utah and syr
posted by phantom
Sept. 15 2007 12:00pm -
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NORTHCOAST FREE PLAYS //SMALL COLLEGES //2 stars navy-7,army+20 // totals, 2 stars eastern mich under 42-,vandy over 47 // tv play of the day illinios-11- // comp college -byu // scotty sprite 3 starr laa angels !
posted by phantom
Sept. 15 2007 12:00pm -
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KELSO
50* KTY
15 unlv
10 FLA ATL--WASH--USC--BYU
posted by phantom
Sept. 15 2007 12:00pm -
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Sebastian
10* Indiana -12.5
10* HOU -14
10* Utah +15
20* GA Tech -7
20* Notre Dame +10
20* Tulsa +7
30* Kentucky +6
30* Kansas lay whatever
30* Ohio +21
200* Alabama -3 unless the line is beyond 4, then buy no points.
posted by phantom
Sept. 15 2007 12:02pm -
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Larry Ness' CFB Superstar Triple Play-It's back! (won 1st of the '07 season last Saturday!)
My Superstar Triple Plays are Indiana at 12:00 ET, Alabama at 6:45 ET and Vanderbilt at 7:00 ET.
Indiana is 2-0 and with Illinois at home next week, has a chance to open 4-0. That's heady stuff for a school that last went to a bowl game in 1993 and last had a winning season in '94. Indiana also gets Minnesota and Ball St at home this year and avoids both Ohio St and Michigan in its Big 10 schedule this year. However, I don't want to get ahead of myself. Indiana has averaged 46.0 PPG, while accumulating 479.0 YPG in its 2-0 start. Quarterback Kellen Lewis has been the main offensive threat for Indiana, as he is not only leading the passing attack, but also has a team-best 118 yards on the ground. To go along with his rushing totals, the QB has thrown for 506 yards and six scores against just two interceptions. The defense has also done a tremendous job in '07. Indiana is allowing just 17.0 PPG, while holding the opposition to just 280.0 YPG. The best aspect of this defense is its ability to shut down the run. After two games, the Hoosiers are surrendering just 38.0 rushing yards per contest. The Hoosiers have also forced eight turnovers thus far and already have 13 sacks on the year. Into Bloomington steps Akron, which was held to three FDs, 69 total yards and was forced to punt a record-setting 14 times by Ohio State last Saturday, losing 20-2! After winning at Western Michigan last Saturday 37-27 (led 34-7 in the 3rd quarter!), the Hoosiers have won 18 straight over MAC teams. Make that 19, with an EASY win (and cover!) here. 15* Indiana.
Nick Saban is back where he belongs, on a college campus. He's a great recruiter and is certainly not starting from scratch at Alabama. The Tide has opened 2-0 behind an excellent defense that's allowed 8.0 PPG and 239.5 YPG, including 66.5 on the ground (2.1 YPC). RB Terry Grant has 307 yards in the two wins, averaging 7.3 YPC and already has five TDs! Arkansas has only played once so far, allowing 376 totals yards (162 rushing and 5.2 per) and 26 points to Troy of the SBC (won 46-26)! Let's remember Arkansas lost its last three games LY (albeit vs LSU, Florida and Wisconsin) but I don't trust QB Dick (49.2% LY), even a little bit. Especially with WR Marcus Monk (19.2 YPC / 11 TDs in '06) out indefinitely with a knee injury. Sure McFadden (1,647 YR / 5.8 YPC) and Jones (1,168 YR / 7.6 YPC) are a lethal RB duo but let's remember, a 6-7 Alabama team (with a lousy coach in Mike Shula) lost at Arkansas LY, just 24-23. The Tide missed three FGs in that game and then missed the extra-point in OT, costing them a chance to keep playing! LY's Alabama team almost won in Fayetteville (the Tide easily could have or maybe even should have won?). Now the Tide have a "big-time" coach and a new attitude. Winning here in Tuscaloosa against a team with just one game under its belt and one with a shaky QB (whose best receiver is out), is NOT too much to ask! 15* Alabama.
Vandy lost to Alabama for the 20th straight time last week (34th of 35!) but gets a very winnable game here vs Ole Miss. The 'Dores have next week off and only Eastern Michigan up after the bye week, so the team will be very focused for this game. QB Chris Nickson (who injured his hamstring in the Alabama loss) took the majority of the first-team snaps during Thursday's practice and the junior is likely to start for Vandy. He had a solid season LY and was also the team's leading rusher (694 YR / 4.8 YPC / 9 TDs). LY Vandy had a 400-179 yardage advantage at Ole Miss (23-7 edge in FDs) but lost 17-10. Ole Miss racked up 534 total yards in LW's 38-25 loss to Missouri (in Oxford), as the defense allowed four passing touchdowns in the second quarter alone. All four of those touchdown drives by Missouri covered more than 50 yards and two of the scores came on 40-yard passes. Ole Miss surrendered 548 total yards and failed to register a single takeaway. The Rebels' pass D has now allowed 336.0 YPG through the air in two games, while allowing 69% completions and six TDs. The Nickson-to-Bennett (82 catches LY) combo should have a big day for Vandy and let's note that the home team has won three straight and five of the last six in this series. Ole Miss's 23-21 win at Memphis on September 1 (survived a late two-point try!) was only the Rebels' THIRD road win since 2004 (3-13 SU). Vandy doesn't have much of a number to cover and I expect a two-TD win. 15* Vanderbilt.
Good Luck...Larry
Larry Ness' 15* TV Game of the Week-MLB (31-11 since Aug 7 / 114-41 since Opening Day!)
My 15* play is on the LA Angels at 7:05 ET. The Angels lost at Chicago last night 5-3, in Bartolo Colon's return. Sidelined about seven weeks with an irritated right elbow, Colon was shaky and had little help from his teammates. He lasted 4.2 innings in his first start since July 23, allowing five runs (three earned) and eight hits while striking out four and walking two. The Angels (86-61) have lost four of their last six games but still own a comfortable eight-game lead atop the AL West. Jered Waver (11-7, 4.00 ERA) has not been the dominate pitcher he was last year as a rookie but he was in a nice groove prior to his start last Sunday vs Cleveland. Weaver was on a 3-0 run with a 1.35 ERA but allowed nine hits and six ERs in just five innings in losing to the Indians, 6-2. Chicago's win last night was its second straight but prior to that, the White Sox had lost 23 of their last 30! Jon Garland, an 18-game winner in both '05 and '06, enters this game 9-11 with a 4.59 ERA in 29 starts. After going 43-23 in his starts the last two seasons, the White Sox are just 11-18 (minus-$572) in his starts in '07! The Angels have been great vs right-handed pitching all season, going 70-43 (plus-$1,480), so I'll back Weaver and the LA here against the sad White Sox and the ineffective Garland. TV Game of the Week 15* LA Angels.
Good Luck...Larry
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posted by phantom
Sept. 15 2007 12:03pm -
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THE GOLD SHEET Late Telephone Selections:
#166 ALABAMA = SUPER POWER 7 (which I think means it's a 2 unit play)
#175 TEXAS-EL PASO = Top Play (which translates to 1 1/2 units)
#122 MIAMI (Ohio) = Regular Play (1 unit)
#124 VIRGINIA TECH = Regular Play (1 unit)
#133 TENNESSEE = Regular Play (1 unit)
#173 & #174 (Southern Cal vs. Nebraska) UNDER = Regular Play (1 unit)
posted by phantom
Sept. 15 2007 12:04pm -
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Northcoast 5* is Florida Atlantic
100% confirmed
posted by phantom
Sept. 15 2007 12:05pm -
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northcoast
5* florida at
4* vtech, oregon, bama, nmex
3* indiana, mia oh
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posted by phantom
Sept. 15 2007 12:05pm -
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northcoast
marquee- florida st. and Iowa
small college
3* purdue, kansas
2* Navy, army
posted by phantom
Sept. 15 2007 12:06pm -
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Greg Roberts
The Roast Of The Week
Purdue Over Central Michigan By 35
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posted by phantom
Sept. 15 2007 12:06pm -
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Wayne Root
Chairmans Miami OH
millionaire GOY Nebraska
Money Maker Utah
No Limit Kentucky
Insiders edge Michigan
Billonaires Arkansas
posted by phantom
Sept. 15 2007 12:08pm -
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Psychic Sports Picks
9/15
NCAAF
2 units Syracuse +12.5
2 units Tennessee +8
3 units Michigan -8
3units Arkansas +3.5
3 units Ball State +7
WISEGUY---Boston College +7
posted by phantom
Sept. 15 2007 12:08pm -
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Jd West Lv Penn State
Jd West Ny Syracuse U-conn
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posted by phantom
Sept. 15 2007 12:10pm -
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L & M Lv 3 Mich St
L & M Ny 2 Syr Buff
posted by phantom
Sept. 15 2007 12:10pm -
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Doc Enterprises
6-fla Atl, 5-wash, 4-c Fla, Tenn, Ind, La Mon, 3-iowa, Neb
posted by phantom
Sept. 15 2007 12:11pm -
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Nationwide (goldst):
Super 7: Ala, Top: Utep, Reg: Tenn, Vt, Neb Under, Mia-oh
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posted by phantom
Sept. 15 2007 12:12pm -
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Pointwise:
4-pur, Kan, 3-ky, Usc, Mia-oh, Tenn, Mizz, N Mex, 2-ohio St, Nd
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Psychic Sports Picks
9/15
NCAAF
2 units Syracuse +12.5
2 units Tennessee +8
3 units Michigan -8
3units Arkansas +3.5
3 units Ball State +7
WISEGUY---Boston College +7
posted by phantom
Sept. 15 2007 12:12pm -
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Dave Malinsky
Our first college 6* of the season puts that 180-104-4 on our Top Rated games into action.
Army at Wake Forest Sep 15 2007 3:30PM
PICK: Army
Your pick will be graded at: 19.5 Sportsbook
EXPERT: David Malinsky
TITLE: 6* Top of the Ticket - Side
REASON FOR PICK: 6* ARMY over WAKE FOREST
In our continuing works on handicapping theory there are significant edges to be found when we can define the roles of being the “Hunted†and the “Hunterâ€, and there has never been a better example in any sport than Jim Grobe’s tenure as the head coach at Wake Forest. As such we have the setting for something special here.
No one does a better job of game-planning than Grobe, who has been able to maximize the marginal talent available to compete week-in and week-out against teams with better personnel. The trip by the Deacons to a BCS bowl LY will go down as one of the 10 best individual coaching seasons ever, with Wake winning five different games despite trailing in first downs and total offense. It tells us much about Grobe’s ability to find whatever strengths his team has, and whatever weaknesses the opponents have, and come up with a couple of big plays that can swing the outcome. At the same time, it tells us that if the likes of Duke and Connecticut beat you by a combined 21 first downs and 190 yards, your stockpile of talent is indeed thin.
So what happens when this limited program goes from being the rabid underdog that is looking to pull a surprise against a favorite that might not take them seriously, and is instead favored against a lesser opponent? First, Grobe manages the game the best way he knows how. Without a lot of depth he must spare the roster when he can, to save the better players for bigger games ahead. Second, if he can win without his tricks he will not use many, so that future opponents do not see them. Third, if it is a non-conference affair each of the first two rules here become magnified. And that is what leads to the bottom line for the Deacon coach in this category.
Since taking over the program his team has been favored by -14 or more six times, and not only took an 0-6 ATS collar, but lost to the spread by a combined 66.5 points in those games. And in the nine settings in which they have been favored by any price vs. a non-conference opponent it is an 0-8-1 ATS slide, which means that a good shopper would have gone 9-0 by bucking them every time. Now in one of the most pronounced settings of all, we absolutely call for the pattern(s) to continue. Having played their hearts out in tough losses to Boston College and Nebraska to open the season this is already a weary squad (contrast that with the soft Syracuse/Duke opening, both at home, that helped to jump start their run LY), and one that has a home A.C.C. showdown with Maryland immediately on deck. This is a week for Grobe to manage the game, get a win, and move on, with the margin of no consequence.
What takes this to an even higher rating is the fact that we do not have to make this all anti-Wake; Army brings some legitimate puzzle pieces that can help. Because the Deacons lack the personnel to grind anyone in the trenches, and even in games like this must rely on some offensive tricks, the most important matchup consideration on defense are some veterans in the key spots to not be fooled. Enter the savvy Army safety combination of seniors Caleb Campbell and Jordan Murray, both returning starters. At 6-2/224 Campbell is a rare talent for Army, already listed as a Lott Trophy candidate and now making his 29th career start. He and Murray are not going to be fooled much here, and note that only there are also four other returning senior starters on the defensive unit, but nine senior starters with a combined total of 20 letters already, a rare amount of experience at West Point. That is helping to make Stan Brock’s transition from assistant to head coach a seamless one, and it does not hurt that there are playmakers on the other side as well. While senior David Pevoto won the QB job in the fall, his injury vs. Rhode Island is a non-issue; it merely hands the reigns to Carson Williams, who has the best arm of any Black Knight QB in memory. And Williams has a legitimate weapon to throw to in Jeremy Trimble, who is only 20 receptions away from becoming the all-time leader at the academy, and was second in the nation in punt returns LY, averaging 18.1 and taking to of them to the house.
Army is not a good team. But there are some weapons, and there will be the usual focus and discipline to play hard and smart. That is more than enough to make this a game for a long time against a favorite that is not overpowering, and we believe that the Black Knights will be alive to win this outright well into the second half, with the pointspread never coming into play.
This is a 6* at +19 or better, and a 5* at +17 or better.
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posted by phantom
Sept. 15 2007 12:13pm -
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Michael Cannon
50 Dime
MICHIGAN STATE
5 Dime
INDIANA (Buy the 1/2 point if your line is -13 1/2)
20 Dime
USC
5 Dime
FLORIDA ATLANTIC
KANSAS
posted by phantom
Sept. 15 2007 12:14pm -
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Score
500 Florida
400 U S C
300 Miami Ohio Ucla
posted by phantom
Sept. 15 2007 12:22pm -
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1. Ats 7t 15-ala, 7-wash, Tenn, 6-sms, 5-gt
2. Bankers 400-ill
3. Ben Burns 1 Top: Neb, Tulsa, Reg: Cal, Unlv, Utah, Syr
4. Big Money Ala
5. Blazer 3-tenn, Wyo, Va
6. Carolina Sports 4-smu, 3-ky, 5-gt
7. Doc Enterprises 10 6-fla Atl, 5-wash, 4-c Fla, Tenn, Ind, La Mon, 3-iowa, Neb
8. Dr. Bob 3-mia-oh, Kan, 2-ky
9. Gameday 9 4-haw, 3-mich St, Louis, 2-io St, Wash, Fla Atl
10. Inside Info 3-stan, Byu, Ind
11. Joe D 5 20-ala, 15-n Mex St
12. Lenny Stevens 20-wash, Tulsa, 10-pitt, Ucla, Ky
13. Lt Profits 3-tulsa, 2-mia-oh, Ark
14. Nationwide (goldst) Super 7: Ala, Top: Utep, Reg: Tenn, Vt, Neb Under, Mia-oh
15. Neri 4 5-kan, 4-ucla, 3-pur, Mich St
16. Northcoast 2 5-fla Atl, 4-vt, Ore, Ala, N Mex, 3-ind, Mia-oh
17. Pointwise 3 4-pur, Kan, 3-ky, Usc, Mia-oh, Tenn, Mizz, N Mex, 2-ohio St, Nd
18. Preferred Picks 7t 4-fla Atl, 3-fresno, C Fla, Ark
19. Private Players 6 6-ala, 5-fla St, 4-byu, Ind, 4-hou, Utep
20. Score 500-fla, 400-usc, 300-mia-oh, Ucla
21. Underdog Fla Atl
22. Wildcat 10-stan, 5-wash, Smu
Reply With Quote
posted by phantom
Sept. 15 2007 2:32pm -
0 likes
CEASAR SPORTS PLAYERS CLUB
HIGH ROLLER GAMES FOR 9/15/07
Game of the Day: UCLA
(3-3-1 )
TV Game of the Day: BOSTON COLLEGE
(4-3)
Dog Game of the Day: WYOMING
(2-3)
Revenge Game of the Day: ALABAMA
(3-0 )
MisMatch Game of the Day: CINCINNATI
(3-1)
Total Game of the Day: BYU/TULSA-OVER
(4-3)
posted by phantom
Sept. 15 2007 2:33pm -
0 likes
JB Sports
3* Virginia Tech
3* Miami-Ohio
3* Tulsa
posted by phantom
Sept. 15 2007 2:34pm -
0 likes
BIG AL - PRIVATE PLAYERS CLUB
Championship - Pittsburgh
Blue Chip - Western Michigan
Linemovers - Mississippi State
10 Dime - Miami Hurricanes
Offshore Steam - Arkansas
Computer Boys - USC
posted by phantom
Sept. 15 2007 2:34pm -
0 likes
Truline
GAME OF MONTH OHIO STATE
_________________
posted by phantom
Sept. 15 2007 2:34pm -
0 likes
mark lawrence...perfect system play.....g tech
pointwise....4* purdue kansas 3* kent scal mia-oh tenn miss nmex 2* oh st nd
hitzges......double play....kansas
tipps....big..nd gtech....small....buff cfla
maxwell......big....navy......small....ala smiss
neri....5* lock kansas
expert....big...asu
franklin...2000*..florida.......small.....gtech usc
fab four.....big...gtech
top dawg....big...unlv.....samll.....fresno kent nd
posted by phantom
Sept. 15 2007 2:35pm -
0 likes
big money....big...alabama...
tru line......gom lock.....ohio state
ppp(gavazzi)...5*...mich st..3*...ore va tech
tom stryker.....big...va tech
ferringo..4*..tenne ala smiss..3* nmex bc...2* ucla emich..1* duke
_________________
posted by phantom
Sept. 15 2007 2:35pm -
0 likes
ATS 4 (1-0) (3-1) (6* 1-1) (4-2) 15* ALABAMA - WASHINGTON, TENNESSEE, southern miss,
georgia tech
BEN BURNS 1 (5-1) (1-0) MAIN EVENT NEBRASKA --- SITUATIONAL GOY TULSA --- BLOWOUT CALIFORNIA --- REVENGE GAME OF WEEK UNLV --- utah, syracuse
BIG AL 1 (4* 2-0) (10 DIME 1-0) (3-1) 5* KENTUCKY, -- 3* WASHINGTON, GEORGIA TECH, OPINIONS notre dame, tulsa, kansas ----- CLUB GAMES 10 DIME MIAMI FLORIDA -- PITT, WESTERN MICHIGAN, MISS STATE, ARKANSAS, SOUTHERN CAL
BILL BAILEY 3 (50* 0-2) (25* 0-1) 50* AUBURN
BANKER 2 (400* 2-1) (300* 2-1) 400 ILLINOIS
BLAZER (4* 2-0) (3* 1-2)
BOXER SPORTS 4 (2* 4-5) (1-1) TENNESSEE, NOTRE DAME, KENTUCKY, ALABAMA, FLORIDA ATL
BRANDON LANG 2 (20-25* 3-0) (10* 3-4) (6-1) 25 MICHIGAN STATE - miami ohio, army, east carolina, florida atlantic
CASH 2 (0-1) (1-0) (6-4) ACC GOY NORTH CAROLINA
COACHES CORNER 2 (0-1) (5-5) southern cal, florida, ucla, ohio state and under
COWTOWN 5 (3* 1-0) (5-3) 2 houston, vandy, -1 texas am
COMPUTER KIDS 3 (3-0) (0-1) (1-3) MICHIGAN OVER, INDIANA OVER, OHIO STATE UNDER
DAVE COKIN 4 (7-5) (3-5) CALIFORNIA, OREGON, UCONN, KENTUCKY, EAST MICHIGAN, ARIZONA STATE, florida, san jose
DOLPHIN 5 (5* 0-1) (4-2) 5 FLORIDA - 3 georgia tech, florida state
DIAMOND STAR 2 (2* 1-3) MICHIGAN STATE
DIRECTOR SPORTS 2 (10-4) pittsburgh, boise state, kansas, ohio state, southern cal
DOC ENTERPRISES 1 (6* 0-1) (5* 1-1) (9-4) 6 FLA ATLANTIC - 5 WASHINGTON - 4 indiana, central florida, ul monroe, tennessee - 3 iowa, nebraska
DOC'S STRIKE FORCE (6* 1-0) (5* 0-1) (7-4)
DOCTOR BOB 1 (2* 2-2) 3* MIAMI OHIO, KANSAS - 2* kentucky -- OPINIONS miss state, ucla
EXECUTIVE (1-0) (1-0)
EXPERT 1 (2-0) (1-1) ARIZONA STATE
FAB FOUR PICKS 1 (0-1) (0-1) GEORGIA TECH
FINAL SCORE 1 (2-3) (0-1) AUBURN
GAME DAY 1 (4* 1-0) (8-4) 4* HAWAII -- 3 michigan state
GARDEN STATE 3 (2* 2-1) 2 miami ohio
GOLD SHEET 1 (1-1) (4-4) SUPER POWER 7 ALABAMA -- 1.5 UTEP - 1 miami ohio, virginia tech, tennessee, usc under
GUARANTEED 4 (1-1) GEORGIA TECH
INSIDERS EDGE (40* 1-0) (2-0)
INSIDE STEAM (1-1) (2* 3-1)
INSIDE INFO 1 (3* 1-1) (1-4) 3* STANFORD, BYU, INDIANA
JEFF CLINE 4 (1-2) FLORIDA STATE - alabama, florida atlantic
JIM FEIST 4 (3-6) (3-2) PURDUE, ALABAMA, KENTUCKY, INDIANA, MICHIGAN STATE, ARIZONA STATE
KELSO STURGEON 2 (50* 2-0) (25* 1-1) (2-2) 50* KENTUCKY - 10 florida atlantic
KEVIN ONEILL 2 (4-3) tennessee, virginia, washington, ul monroe
LARRY NESS 1 (INSIDER 2-0) (5-3) 20* CONFERENCE GOY SOUTHERN MISS - 15 INDIANA
LT PROFITS 3 (3* 1-0) (3-4) 3 TULSA - 2 miami ohio, arkansas
LV INSIDERS 2 (400% 2-1) (1-0) 400 PURDUE
LV LOCKLINE 3 (50* 1-0) (25* 2-2) 25 indiana
LV SPORTS 2 (10* 5-3) purdue, florida, indiana
LENNY STEVENS 4 (20* 2-1) (10* 4-3) WASHINGTON, TULSA, pittsburgh, ucla, kentucky
MAGLIOSA 4 (2-3) SYRACUSE, SOUTHERN MISS, NEBRASKA
MAXWELL 1 (1-0) (0-1) (3-0) NAVY, alabama, southern miss
MIKE NERI 1 (4* 2-0) (5-3) 5* KANSAS - 3 purdue, michigan state
MILLIONAIRES (3-0)
NORTHCOAST 2 (4* 1-1) (4* 4-0) (3* 4-1) 5* FLORIDA ATLANTIC - 4 VIRGINIA TECH, OREGON, ALABAMA, NEW MEXICO - 3 indiana, miami ohio
NORTHCOAST SMALL COLL 2 (3* 1-2) 3 purdue, kansas
NORTHCOAST TOTALS 2 (5-1) 4 FLORIDA OVER - 3 oklahoma under, hawaii over, navy over
NY SPORTS 5 (9* 2-0) (5-2) 9 USC - 8 east carolina - 6 ohio state
POINTWISE 1 (4* 2-2) (3* 10-3) (2* 1-3) 4* PURDUE, KANSAS - 3* kentucky, usc, miami ohio, tennessee, missouri, new mexico - 2 ohio state, notre dame
POINTSPREAD MAVEN 5 (20* 1-0) (10* 1-1) (5* 1-0) 10 UTAH, USC, ARKANSAS STATE
POWER PLAYS 2 (1-3) (1-0) (4-2) OHIO STATE, FLORIDA, OKLAHOMA, CAL, LSU, TEXAS TECH
PLATINUM 3 (0-2) (4-3) INDIANA, OHIO STATE
PREFERRED PICKS 5 (4* 2-0) (3* 2-2) 4 FLORIDA ATLANTIC - 3 fresno state, central florida, arkansas
PRIMETIME (2-1)
PRIVATE INVESTORS 5 (1-0) (6-4) FLORIDA, notre dame, indiana, hawaii
PRIVATE PLAYERS OF PITT 2 LATE PHONES (5* 1-1) (4* 4-0) (3* 1-3) 6* ALABAMA - 5 FLORIDA STATE - 4 indiana, byu -3 houston, utep
PPP STEAMROLLER CLUB 1 (5* 1-1) (3* 4-0) 5* MICHIGAN STATE - 3* oregon, virginia tech
PURE LOCK 4 (2-0) HAWAII
RAIDER 3 (1-1) (0-1) USC UNDER, OHIO STATE UNDER
RANDY RATDKE 4 (2-2) tennessee, washington, alabama, syracuse, kentucky
REED HARRIS 4 (3-1) (2-7) FLORIDA, OHIO STATE, INDIANA, KANSAS
SCORE 5 (400* 0-1) (4-2) 500 FLORIDA - 400 SOUTHERN CAL - 300 miami ohio, ucla
SCOTT SPREITZER 1 (3-2) (8-1) (1-2) KO NON CONFERENCE GOY KANSAS - FLORIDA ATLANTIC
SILVER STAR 5 (9* 1-0) (2-2) 9 TULSA - 7 new mex state - 6 georgia tech
SLAM DUNK 4 (1-2) UCLA, NAVY, FLORIDA STATE
ED SLICK 2 (7-8) 2 SYRACUSE, UCONN, CAL, RICE - 1 virginia, miami ohio, virginia tech, army, oregon
SOLID GOLD PICK 2 (2-0) (4-2) ALABAMA
SPORTS GURU (30* 4-1)
SPORTS ANALYST 2 (0-2) (1-5) FLORIDA
SPORTS AUTHORITY 2 (1-1) (1-2) MISSISSIPPI - ARMY, HOUSTON, missouri, southern miss, indiana
SPORTS BANK 5 (500* 1-1) (0-1) 500* MICHIGAN
SPORTS DOCTOR 2 (75* 3-0) (50* 0-2) 75 VIRGINIA
SPORTS INVESTORS 3 (10* 0-1) (9* 0-1) (2-2) 10 AUBURN - 7 pittsburgh - 6 utah
SPORTS NETWORK (2-3) (8-5)
SPORT TRENDS (9* 1-1) (9-11)
SPORTS UNLIMITED 4 (4* 0-1) (3* 2-1) 3 virginia
SUPER LOCK 2 (2-1) INDIANA
SUPER SYSTEMS 2 (1-3) GEORGIA TECH
SWAMI 2 (5-2) georgia tech, alabama, kentucky
TD CLUB 3 (9* 1-1) (2-0) 8 iowa state
THE COACH 5 (3* 0-1) (2-0) georgia tech, florida atlantic
THE INSIDER 1 (5-0) (9-5) kentucky, tennessee, georgia tech, alabama, auburn, colorado, ohio state
TIPPS 1 (0-1) (1-0) (5-2) NOTRE DAME, GEORGIA TECH, buffalo, central florida
TOMMY THUNDER 3 (9* 1-1) (2-2) 7 michigan state
TONY WRIGHT (10* 1-0) (1-2)
TOP DAWG 1 (0-2) (4-2) UNLV, fresno state, kentucky, notre dame
TRU-LINE 1 (1-1) (2-0) GAME OF MONTH OHIO STATE
UNDERDOG (0-2)
UNIVERSAL 2 (0-1) (5-1) ucla, lsu, utep, byu, florida, navy, kansas
USA SPORTS 5 (0-1) (9-5) CAL, LSU, ucla, florida, central florida, vandy under, ohio state under
VEGAS CONNECTION (3* 2-0) (2* 2-1) (1-0)
VEGAS PIPELINE 5 (3-2) (3-2) KENTUCKY, SOUTHERN MISS
VIP SPORTS (1000* 1-1) (500% 2-0) (2-1)
WAYNE ROOT (NO LIMIT 0-2) (3-3) (1-3)
WILDCAT (10* 1-0) (7* 1-1) (5* 1-2)
WINDY CITY 5 (10* 0-1) (9* 1-0) (1-3) GOY OREGON - 7 wyoming - 6 northwestern
WINNERS PATH 4 (2-1) (1-3) WASHINGTON, wake forest, tennessee
WISE GUYS 2 (2* 0-4) (1-0) 2 INDIANA
WIZARD 2 (0-1) (2-1) (0-1) GEORGIA TECH, northwestern, southern cal under
ADDITIONAL ***
UNDERDOG SPORTSLINE (0-2) (0-1) (1-1)
RIGHT ANGLE 1 (1* 2-3) 2* BYU OVER - 1* utep
SEBASTIAN 4 (100* 1-1) (13-5) 200 ALABAMA - 30 ohio, kansas, kentucky - 20 tulsa, notre dame, georgia tech - 10 utah, houston, indiana
MIKEY SPORTS (1-1) (1-0) (5-5)
R&R TOTALS (1-1)
CHARLIES 5 (500* 2-2) (4-5) 500 OHIO - 30 illinois - 20 penn state, central michigan -10 northern illinois
TREV ROGERS 5 (2-2) utep
HEADQUARTER 5 (5*2-2) vanderbilt and under
COMPUMAN 5 (3* 2-1) (4-7) CALIFORNIA - rice, syracuse, oregon, miami florida
BEST BETS 5 (2-1) ucla
EASY MONEY (2-0) (0-4)
BETTORS EDGE 5 (3* 5-2) CINCINNATI - illinois, indiana
CAPTAIN 5 (25* 0-2) (3-6) 15 florida - 10 northern ilininois, ohio state, nebraska, utah, texas, indiana over, florida under
COBRA `5 (2* 1-2) (4-0) 2 syracuse, new mexico - 1 texas am
STATISTICIAN 2 (1-1) (0-1) 90% OHIO STATE UNDER - 80% central michigan, toledo
JB SPORTS (1-0) (1-2)
SPORTS REPORTER (3* 1-1)
BILLY COLEMAN (1-0)
ASA 1 (5* 1-0) 4* SOUTHERN MISS - 3 north carolina, alabama
NSA 5 (20* 0-1) (10* 3-2) 20* NORTH CAROLINA -10 VIRGINIA TECH, EAST CAROLINA, BOSTON COLLEGE, SOUTHERN CAL, COLORADO
ALATEX 2 (20* 0-1) 20* FLORIDA UNDER
VINCE PIOLI 5 (20* 1-0) 20* AUBURN - 10 boston college, houston, utah
SOUTH BEACH 5 (20* 0-1) 20* BOSTON COLLEGE - 10 washington, fresno state
HIGH ROLLERS CLUB 5 (20* 0-1) (0-1) 20 COLORADO - 10 COLORADO OVER
TONY CAMPONE 5 (20* 1-0) 20* EAST CAROLINA - 10 boston college, navy, arizona state
HOLLYWOOD SPORTSLINE 5 (20* 1-0) 20* IOWA STATE - byu, southern cal, notre dame over
CRUSHER 5 (4* 0-3) 4 NOTRE DAME, ARKANSAS STATE -- 3 buffalo, miss state, east michigan, pitt, iowa state, tennessee, kansas, idaho, tulane, new mex state
CHICAGO SPORTS GROUP 5 (FORTUNE 500* 0-1) BOSTON COLLEGE --- notre dame over, boise state, missouri
CHUCK FRANKLIN 1 2000* FLORIDA -- 1500 georgia tech, usc
NORM HITZGES 1 KANSAS
GREG ROBERTS 1 ROAST OF THE WEEK PURDUE --- CENTRAL FLORIDA
ROB FERRINGO 1 4* TENNESSEE, ALABAMA, SO MISS - 3 new mexico, boston college - 2 ucla, eastern michigan - 1 duke
TOM STRYKER 1 VIRGINIA TECH
MARC LAWRENCE 1 PERFECT SYSTEM PLAY GEORGIA TECH
BIG MONEY 1 ALABAMA
SPECIAL K 4 20* TENNESSEE
NETWORK 4 4 unlv - 2 arkansas, florida atlantic
Z PLAY 4 MIAMI OHIO
TOM STRYKER 4 PURDUE
LEE STRYKER 4 HAWAII
SHARP TOTALS 4 USC OVER
DISCOUNT SPORTS 5 10 MISSISSIPPI UNDER - 5 texas tech
INSIDE SPORTS REPORT 5 5 ALABAMA - 4 UCLA, TEXAS OVER - 3 auburn, hawaii over
MADDUX SPORTS 5 5* PURDUE
CHRIS JORDAN 5 4,000,000* AUBURN - 3,000,000* WAKE FOREST, OHIO STATE
FRED CALLAHAN 5 20* ALABAMA - 15* NOTRE DAME, HAWAII, KENTUCKY
VIP ACTION 5 WASHINGTON -- boston college, tennessee, army
ANIMAL 5 florida atlantic
posted by phantom
Sept. 15 2007 8:34pm