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NEWSLETTERS FOR WEEK OF 9/10

SUNDAY, SEPTEMBER 16 (THE GOLD SHEET )

OVER THE TOTAL PITTSBURGH 30 - Buffalo 17--Pittsburgh has been a high-pay "over" team at Heinz (14-1-1 last 16!), thanks partly to LY's Ben Roethlisberger interceptions (an NFL-leading 23 during injury-plagued season). He has focused on avoiding them (none in opener; but 4 TDP) since the start of training camp. The Polamalu-sparked zone-blitz defense should cause plenty of problems for the rebuilt Buffalo OL (at least three new starters TY).

(04-Pittsburgh +9' 29-24...SR: Pittsburgh 12-9)

Cincinnati 27 - CLEVELAND 13--Bengals' superior offense dominated in LY's meetings, with Cincy outscoring hated rival 64-17. Considering Cleveland's instability in OL and secondary, plus its dubious situation at QB, prefer to rely on Carson Palmer, "Ocho Cinco," and mates to extend their 15-4-1 spread mark last 20 as visitor. Is Jamal Lewis (35 YR in opener) really the answer for Browns at RB? Palmer, 49 of 72 vs. Cleveland LY, now further removed from Jan. 2006 knee injury.

(06-CINCY 34-Cle. 17...Ci.27-17 Ci.32/160 Cl.20/57 Ci.24/40/2/321 Cl.20/33/2/244 Ci.0 Cl.1)

(06-Cincy 30-CLE. 0...Ci.24-9 Ci.35/99 Cl.14/51 Ci.27/34/1/289 Cl.18/29/4/152 Ci.0 Cl.1)

(06-CINCINNATI -10 34-17, Cincinnati -3 30-0...SR: Cleveland 34-33)

Indianapolis 23 - TENNESSEE 20--Predictions of the demise of the 2007 Indy defense (5-6 new starters after free agency & injuries) have turned out to be premature. But upstart Tennessee and Vince Young gave Colts all they could handle LY, covering both meetings and winning the second. Can Titans pound out another 278 YR, as they did in Jacksonville, vs. smallish Indy defense on grass? Last four in series "under."

(06-INDY 14-Tenn. 13...I.20-15 T.31/214 I.34/154 I.20/31/1/166 T.10/21/1/63 I.1 T.0)

(06-TENN. 20-Indy 17...T.21-20 T.35/219 I.29/100 I.21/28/2/351 T.15/25/2/163 T.0 I.0)

(06-INDIANAPOLIS -18 14-13, TENNESSEE +7' 20-17...SR: Indianapolis 14-11)

Houston 20 - CAROLINA 16--Not sure that a win over the struggling Chiefs is a definitive "buy" signal for Houston. And we'll see if the supposedly-improved Texans OL can deal with Julius Peppers & friends. But there are enough other indicators that Texans might be a team to watch, especially with top '06 draftee Mario Williams 2 (sacks, fumble ret. TD vs. KC) making an impact, new QB Matt Schaub proving a quick study in Gary Kubiak's offense, and rookie WR find Jacoby Jones making it trickier for opposing defenses to double up on Andre Johnson.

(03-HOUSTON +6' 14-10...SR: Houston 1-0)

San Francisco 23 - ST. LOUIS 17--We're not going to blame St. Louis low-keying it in preseason for their shoddy effort in opening loss vs. Carolina. But Steven Jackson (two fumbles, only 58 YR) looked as if he could have used a few more carries in August. And we're beginning to wonder what options def. coord. Jim Haslett might have with a DL that's counting on rookie NGs Carriker & Ryan to slow the run, but was trampled in opener. With presence of Frank Gore for S.F., QB Alex Smith now mature enough to take advantage.

(06-S.F. 20-St. L. 13...St.17-14 Sf.33/127 St.28/118 Sf.11/22/0/233 St.19/34/0/147 Sf.1 St.1)

(06-ST.L. 20-S.Frn. 17...St.23-20 Sf.31/171 St.29/140 St.24/37/1/209 Sf.13/25/2/148 St.0 Sf.1)

(06-SAN FRANCISCO +3 20-13, ST. LOUIS -4' 20-17...SR: St. Louis 59-54-2)

NY GIANTS 26 - Green Bay 14--During LY's rebuilding season, Packers were 5-2-1 as a road dog. But G.B.'s offense failed to impress in Week One, generating no TDs, even though the defense did perform well in holding Philly to 13. Giants offense owns the better weapons in this one, and their greater imperative to avoid 0-2 start should be another help. N.Y. has the pass rushers (check Umenyiora) that cause Bret Favre to hurry. He'll have to wait before passing John Elway on the QB win list.

(04-NY Giants +6' 14-7...SR: Green Bay 28-22-2)

JACKSONVILLE 24 - Atlanta 9--Tough start for the unintended new era in Atlanta. First, Vick-less Falcons had to deal with the stingy run defense of the Vikings. Now, they must contend with embarrassed Jacksonville defense after it allowed 278 YR in opener. Good chance the Atlanta defense wears down chasing QB Garrard, RB F. Taylor, and mini-bull RB/KR Maurice Jones-Drew (TDs in eight straight games to end LY). Jags 7-3 vs. spread last 10 at home.

(03-ATLANTA -3 21-14...SR: Jacksonville 2-1)

New Orleans 21 - TAMPA BAY 20--Buccaneers already beat up (check status of QB Garcia and RB C. Williams). But T.B. and Jon Gruden used to playing shorthanded after doing it for virtually all of LY! Vaunted Saints' offense failed to score a TD in opener at Indy, and Bucs familiar with the Drew Brees-Reggie Bush attack. It bodes poorly to start 0-2 in the NFL, so look for desperation fight from host.

(06-N. ORL. 24-T. Bay 21...T.18-15 T.33/187 N.25/143 T.20/31/0/219 N.21/33/0/171 N.0 T.1)

(06-N. Orl. 31-T. BAY 14...N.19-11 T.18/68 N.35/49 N.24/32/0/314 T.18/31/0/158 N.0 T.1)

(06-NEW ORLEANS -6' 24-21, New Orleans P 31-14...SR: New Orleans 19-11)

DETROIT 23 - Minnesota 16--Minny has won last ten meetings in series!!! However, with inexperienced QB Tarvaris Jackson making just the second road start of his career (generated just 3 FDs and 104 total yards in LY's 9-7 foul-weather loss in G.B.; only TD scored via int.), must side with veteran Jon Kitna in this one. After all, Detroit prefers the pass on offense; Vikes excel vs. the run. Time for streak to end, despite new Minny RB Adrian Peterson (103 YR, 60 receiving in opener).

(06-MINN. 26-Det. 17...M.18-13 M.30/135 D.11/16 M.26/34/1/201 D.23/42/3/201 M.2 D.1)

(06-Minn. 30-DET. 20...M.21-20 M.44/172 D.10/M3 D.28/41/3/272 M.14/22/1/153 M.1 D.3)

(06-MINNESOTA -6' 26-17, Minnesota +1' 30-20...SR: Minnesota 60-29-2)

Dallas 20 - MIAMI 19--Cowboys put on an exciting offensive show with their 45-point outburst Sunday night vs. the Giants. But points won't come so easy vs. veteran Miami defense, fired up to avoid that debilitating 0-2 start (when chances of making the playoffs dip way down). With Dallas secondary vulnerable, look for Trent Green (24 of 38 in opener at Washington) to improve in Cam Cameron's official home debut.

(03-Miami +3 40-21...SR: Miami 7-4)

ARIZONA 24 - Seattle 23--Regular-season home debut of Arizona HC Ken Whisenhunt. And Seattle was 0-4 as a road favorite in LY's injury-plagued season. If Cardinals intend on being a factor in the NFC West race, beating the three-time defending division champs would go a long way. So, will "take" with Arizona's young talent maturing, and will look "over" (5 of last 6 in series "over;" Seahawks 14-3-1 "over" on road.)

(06-SEA. 21-Ariz. 10...S.20-17 S.36/146 A.20/65 S.12/27/2/195 A.24/38/1/191 S.0 A.1)

(06-ARIZ. 27-Sea. 21...S.21-20 S.29/120 A.33/113 A.21/34/1/232 S.20/28/0/213 A.0 S.3)

(06-SEATTLE -7 21-10, ARIZONA +3 27-21...SR: EVEN 8-8)

BALTIMORE 23 - NY Jets 10--Baltimore defense tends to be even nastier at home (only 12 ppg LY), where Ravens are 17-8-1 last 26 when favored ("under" 11 of last 17 as host). Will N.Y.'s decision to dump starting G Pete Kendall come back to haunt the Jets (especially Chad Pennington) vs. the rugged Pryce-Gregg-Ngata Baltimore defensive front? Quite likely, especially if RB Thomas Jones (42 YR Game One) can't get going. If LT Jonathon Ogden (turf toe) ready to go, RB McGahee should enjoy nice home debut.

(05-BALTIMORE -7 13-3...SR: Baltimore 4-1)

DENVER 20 - Oakland 14--Things might have gone better for Oakland in its opener had Sebastian Janikowski not destroyed Raider momentum by going 0-3 on FGs. Still, Oakland did appear to be out of LY's malaise, with Josh McCown operating Lane Kiffin's quick passing game well enough to hit 30 of 40 (but 2 ints., 1 lost fumble). They have a good chance to improve some in second game against hated rival. Nine of last 11 in series "under."

(06-DENVER 13-Oak. 3...D.15-14 D.31/144 O.30/85 O.13/26/1/159 D.11/18/0/91 D.1 O.1)

(06-Denver 17-OAK. 13...13-13 D.26/63 O.26/46 D.20/31/3/201 O.18/33/0/198 D.0 O.2)

(06-DENVER -14 13-3, Denver -9 17-13...SR: Oakland 54-39-2)

CHICAGO 29 - Kansas City 6--With K.C. QB & receivers far from scary, Larry Johnson (only 10 for 43 in opener) figures to find slow going vs. Brian Urlacher and the rugged Chicago front seven, especially with DT Tommie Harris looking 100% after LY's injury. Chiefs' shaky OTs will have their hands full vs. Bears' DE rotation of A. Ogunleye, A. Brown & Mark Anderson. Bears (4 giveaways last week in S.D.) 2-0 vs. spread in regular season LY after a loss.

(03-KANSAS CITY -8' 31-3...SR: Chicago 5-4)

*NEW ENGLAND 23 - San Diego 22--Chargers want revenge for their 4th-Q collapse vs. Pats in LY's AFC playoffs. Truly, there are easier teams to seek revenge against. However, S.D. has now won 11 straight in regular season, and Chargers 12-1-2 last 15 as a dog! Their only 3 losses LY (including playoffs) by 3 points each! Tom Brady (22 of 28), Randy Moss (9 for 183; hates "quiz shows"), and Wes Welker (6 recs.) went "nuts" in N.E. opener vs. Jets. But Chargers tougher than Jets; N.E. defense missing starters Seymour & Harrison. TV--NBC

(06-N. Eng. 24-S. DIEGO 21...S.21-18 S.33/148 N.21/51 N.27/51/3/276 S.14/32/1/204 N.0 S.3)

(06-New England +4' 24-21 (AFC Playoffs)...SR: New England 18-14-2)

MONDAY, SEPTEMBER 17

*PHILADELPHIA 19 - Washington 16--Donovan McNabb (15 of 33) was a little slow on the trigger in his return at G.B. Philly defense did not allow a TD, but Packers benefited enormously from two muffed punts. Much is being asked of young Wash. QB J. Campbell (only 8 career starts; 222 YP last week). But ground game (182 yds. vs. Miami) and defense giving him solid support. Redskins' conservative style has helped series go "under" 6 of last 7 meetings. CABLE TV--ESPN

(06-PHIL. 27-Wash. 3...P.17-15 W.31/146 P.34/145 P.12/26/0/220 W.16/32/1/132 P.0 W.0)

(06-Phil. 21-WASH. 19...W.20-14 W.40/210 P.22/99 W.16/28/2/188 P.15/23/0/164 P.1 W.0)

(06-PHILADELPHIA -7 27-3, Philadelphia -1' 21-19...SR: Washington 75-64-5)

MONDAY NIGHT HISTORY

Washington and Philadelphia on Monday Night

Washington is 8-18 straight-up and 8-18 vs. the pointspread on the road on Monday Night Football;

16-11 straight-up and 15-11-1 vs. the pointspread at home on Monday Night Football.

Philadelphia is 15-10 straight-up and 16-9 vs. the pointspread at home on Monday Night Football;

9-10 straight-up and 11-8 vs. the pointspread on the road on Monday Night Football.

HEAD-TO-HEAD MEETINGS SINCE 2006 (not necessarily Mon. night)

2006 Reg. Seas.: Philadelphia -1Â½ beat Washington 21-19 at Washington

Reg. Seas.: Philadelphia -7 beat Washington 27-3 at Philadelphia

PERFORMANCE BREAKDOWN (1993-06)

Favorites vs. Pointspread

Favored by 1-6Â½ points Won 83, Lost 87, Tied 3

Favored by 7 points or more Won 32, Lost 25, Tied 2

Total Favorites Won 115, Lost 112, Tied 5

Home Teams vs. Pointspreads

Home Team Favorite Won 83, Lost 83, Tied 5

Home Team Underdog Won 29, Lost 31

Home Team at Pick Won 1, Lost 0

Total Home Team Won 113, Lost 114, Tied 5

NFL KEY RELEASES

HOUSTON by 4 over Carolina

CHICAGO by 23 over Kansas City

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

OVER THE TOTAL in the Buffalo-Pittsburgh game

NFL RATINGS & POINTSPREAD RECORDS

All teams measured from the TOP RATING of zero. HFV - Home Field Value. Deduct allotted points for HFV from rating of Home Team. R - Current Power Rating. SUR - Straight-Up Won-Loss Record. PSR - Won-Loss Record vs. Pointspread. O/U-Total Over-under record (number of games that went over-number of games that went under). PF & PA - Average Points Scored For and Against. Results at Home listed under Home. Results on Road listed under Away. Teams with a bold + or - have had their ratings moved 2 points or more for the better (+) or worse (-) since last week.

TOTAL HOME AWAY

TEAM R HFV SUR PSR O/U PF-PA PSR PF-PA PSR PF-PA

Arizona 11 2 - - - - - - -

Atlanta 13 3 0-1 0-1 0-1 3-24 - - 0-1 3-24

Baltimore 4 3 - - - - - - -

Buffalo 9 3 0-1 1-0 0-1 14-15 1-0 14-15 - -

Carolina 7 2 1-0 1-0 0-1 27-13 - - 1-0 27-13

Chicago 4 3 0-1 0-1 0-1 3-14 - - 0-1 3-14

Cincinnati 4 3 - - - - - - -

Cleveland 13 2 0-1 0-1 1-0 7-34 0-1 7-34 - -

Dallas 4 3 1-0 1-0 1-0 45-35 1-0 45-35 - -

Denver 4 3 1-0 0-1 0-1 15-14 - - 0-1 15-14

Detroit+ 11 2 1-0 1-0 1-0 36-21 - - 1-0 36-21

Green Bay 9 3 1-0 1-0 0-1 16-13 1-0 16-13 - -

Houston 9 3 1-0 1-0 0-1 20-3 1-0 20-3 - -

Indianapolis+ -2 4 1-0 1-0 0-1 41-10 1-0 41-10 - -

Jacksonville 7 3 0-1 0-1 0-1 10-13 0-1 10-13 - -

Kansas City- 11 3 0-1 0-1 0-1 3-20 - - 0-1 3-20

Miami 10 2 0-1 0-0-1 0-1 13-16 - - 0-0 13-16

Minnesota 11 3 1-0 1-0 0-1 24-3 1-0 24-3 - -

New England+ -3 3 1-0 1-0 1-0 38-14 - - 1-0 38-14

New Orleans 3 4 0-1 0-1 0-1 10-41 - - 0-1 10-41

NY Giants 7 2 0-1 0-1 1-0 35-45 - - 0-1 35-45

NY Jets 8 2 0-1 0-1 1-0 14-38 0-1 14-38 - -

Oakland 12 2 0-1 0-1 1-0 21-36 0-1 21-36 - -

Philadelphia 5 3 0-1 0-1 0-1 13-16 - - 0-1 13-16

Pittsburgh 4 3 1-0 1-0 1-0 34-7 - - 1-0 34-7

St. Louis 11 2 0-1 0-1 0-1 13-27 0-1 13-27 - -

San Diego 1 3 1-0 1-0 0-1 14-3 1-0 14-3 - -

San Francisco 12 3 - - - - - - -

Seattle 6 3 1-0 1-0 0-1 20-6 1-0 20-6 - -

Tampa Bay 9 2 0-1 0-1 0-1 6-20 - - 0-1 6-20

Tennessee 6 3 1-0 1-0 0-1 13-10 - - 1-0 13-10

Washington 10 2 1-0 0-0-1 0-1 16-13 0-0 16-13 - -

College Analysis

KEY TO FOOTBALL ANALYSES

Home team in CAPS. *â€”indicates night game. Statistics after game writeups are listed in the following order: Score of game, first downs, rushing attempts/rushing yards, passes completed/passes attempted/passes intercepted/passing yards, and fumbles lost. In each statistical category the leader is listed first. Scores and pointspreads (in parentheses) are results of most recent meetings in series. Pâ€”Pick Game. SRâ€”Series Record (official league games only), with team leading in series, number of games won, lost and tied. NLâ€”No Line. OPRâ€”Average Opponentsâ€™ Power Rating (at the time they met) of all TGS-rated teams played. TGS Key Releases are underlined and denoted with a star ().

Some frequently-appearing abbreviations. HCâ€”Head Coach (also, college Homecoming Game, when listed in score line). â€œOâ€â€”Offense. â€œDâ€â€”Defense. DDsâ€”Double Digits. OLâ€”Offensive Line or Lineman. DLâ€”Defensive Line or Lineman. KR-Kick Returner. o.c.â€”Offensive Coordinator. d.c.â€”Defensive Coordinator. YRâ€”Yards Rushing. YPâ€”Yards Passing. recs.â€”Receptions. ints.â€”Interceptions. STsâ€”Special Teams. ypgâ€”Yards per Game. ppgâ€”Points per Game. ypcâ€”Yards per Carry (or Catch, for receivers). LYâ€”Last Year. TYâ€”This Year. Yâ€”Year or Years. TDPâ€”Touchdown Passes. FAâ€”Free Agent. SUâ€”Straight Up. Games are listed in the Don Best rotation used in the majority of Las Vegas sportsbooks.

All score predictions are made with Las Vegas pointspreads and over-under lines in mind. Please note: All selections indicating a preference for the underdog do not necessarily forecast the underdog as the straight-up winner of the game. A predicted victory by the favorite of less than the pointspread on the game indicates the underdog is the preferred side in the game.

THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 13

*West Virginia 42 - MARYLAND 19--KO power? West Virginia, trailing 16-13 mid-way thru 3rd Q on road at fired-up in-state rival Marshall last week, scored 35 points in final 21:30 to win easily (and cover huge spread!). QB White & RB Slaton led charge, as usual. And that veteran duo has a new sidekick in quick-as-a-wink true frosh RB Devine (3 TDs, nearly 14 yards per touch in first 2 games). Stodgy Maryland attack (just 270 total yards & 14 FDs at lowly Florida Intl.) can't keep pace. TV--ESPN

(06-W. VA. 45-Md. 24...M.24-17 W.43/340 M.33/122 M.24/45/2/211 W.6/9/0/43 W.1 M.3)

(06-WVA -17 45-24 06-Wva +3 31-19 05-WVA -6' 19-16 (OT)...SR: West Va. 22-21-2)

*Tcu 23 - AIR FORCE 10--Now that TCU doesn't have to concern itself with BCS talk for a while, Frogs can focus full attention on MWC. That's bad news for AFA, as Gary Patterson's speedy "D" wrecked Fisher DeBerry's option past two years, and Falcs still not balancing new-look "O" as well as HC Calhoun would like (run/pass ratio about 4:1). Chance for TCU RS frosh QB Dalton to breathe a little after facing relentless Texas pressure last week.

(06-TCU 38-A. Force 14...T.21-12 T.42/141 A.44/98 T.23/32/0/236 A.4/11/1/44 T.1 A.3)

(06-TCU -17 38-14 05-Tcu +1 48-10...SR: TCU 4-1-1)

FRIDAY, SEPTEMBER 14

ADDED GAME

*Oklahoma State 31 - TROY 26--After murderous (but financially-rewarding) start at Arkansas and at Florida, Troy finally home, where it has ambushed more than one foe. Considering OSU's 2-8 spread mark last 10 away, plus Trojans' developing corps of athletes, led by sr. QB Haugabook, Troy should fight to the end. Did Cowboys find a new starting QB (Z. Robinson 3 TDP) last week after Bobby Reid's injury? CABLE TV--ESPN2 (FIRST MEETING)

SATURDAY, SEPTEMBER 15

Illinois 22 - SYRACUSE 17--Syracuse offense laboring early, but give the Orangemen a shot to hang with Illinois side that continued to make mistakes and had trouble finishing off drives against W. Illinois. Illini ground game will do some damage against Syracuse defensive front that's allowed 210 ypg rushing, but feel uncomfortable laying more than a few points on road with Zook's youthful group.

(06-Syr. 31-ILL. 21...I.18-17 S.44/202 I.31/110 I.17/33/1/288 S.9/18/1/167 S.0 I.1)

(06-Syracuse +3' 31-21...SR: Illinois 10-2)

CONNECTICUT 46 - Temple 10--Young Temple squad filled with self-doubt after getting drilled at home by formerly bedraggled Buffalo. And hapless Owls have lost last 7 on road by average score of 49-8. UConn's offense clicking with hotshot new juco QB Lorenzen at helm, and Husky defense hasn't been scored on since first couple minutes of opener. (04-CONNECTICUT -18 45-31...SR: Temple 7-2)

NORTH CAROLINA 26 - Virginia 19--Cavalier HC Al Groh falling under heavy criticism in Charlottesville. And road providing little respite, as UVa just 2-9 SU, 1-10 vs. spread last 11 as visitor. Savvy new Carolina mentor Butch Davis won't let his baby-faced Tar Heels stay down after last week's last-second loss at East Carolina. Confident UNC RS frosh QB Yates has fired 6 TDP in first 2 games.

(06-VA. 23-N. Car. 0...V.20-11 V.38/194 N.33/98 V.18/26/0/176 N.9/20/1/84 V.0 N.2)

(06-VA. -6 23-0 05-UNC P 7-5 04-VA. -21' 56-24...SR: North Carolina 57-50-4)

PENN STATE 51 - Buffalo 10--Penn State continued to impress with another win-and-cover as a big favorite against ND (now 12-4 vs. number last 16 laying double digits). Buffalo off a satisfying win against downtrodden Temple, but don't see Bull QB Drew Willy posing much of a threat to Nittany Lion defense (no TDs TY) in hostile environs of Beaver Stadium. Buffalo couldn't slow Rutgers' attack, and Penn State offense every bit as potent. (DNP...SR: Buffalo 1-0)

VANDERBILT 30 - Mississippi 20--With Vandy's dual threat QB Nickson expected back (see Special Ticker), inclined to lay smallish number vs. poor-travelin' Ole Miss squad that's just 2-9 SU away last 2+Ys. 'Dores balanced attack welcomes penetrable Rebel defense (1,117 yds. so far!) after being frustrated by athletic Bama stop unit last week. And Vandy has circled this date after bitter 17-10 loss LY (see Looking for an Angle). Watch Vandy's all-star WR Bennett (only 4 catches vs. Tide) rebound in big way vs. soft Ole Miss 2ndary.

(06-MISS. 17-Vandy 10...V.23-7 M.38/148 V.41/129 V.21/33/1/271 M.3/9/2/31 M.0 V.4)

(06-MISS. +1' 17-10 05-VANDY -2' 31-23 04-MISS. -6' 26-23 (OT)...SR: Miss. 46-33-2)

AUBURN 30 - Mississippi State 6--MSU's rare 38-point explosion vs. defenseless Tulane doesn't mean much, so look for angry Auburn to vent frustration following nationally-televised 26-23 OT home loss vs. Big East contender South Florida. Expect mistake-prone Bulldog QB Henig (7 ints. so far) to self-destruct vs. swarming Tiger defense that has skunked MSU the last two years. Demanding Auburn HC Tuberville will fix speedy RS frosh RB Fannin's fumble problems (lost 2 vs. Bulls) in practice, and Tigers 4-0 vs. spread following SU loss L2Ys. Lay it, pal.

(06-Aub. 34-MISS. ST. 0...A.20-11 A.36/111 M.33/79 A.22/32/0/277 M.12/25/1/82 A.2 M.2)

(06-Auburn -21 34-0 05-AUBURN -15 28-0 04-Auburn -13' 43-14...SR: Auburn 56-22-2)

PURDUE 43 - Central Michigan 17--CMU QB LeFevour and RB Sneed proved to be a potent duo in bounceback win against defensive-seive Toledo. However, situation will be very different as the Chips hit the road to face a very experienced Purdue defense. CMU yielded 308 YP & 52 points at Kansas in opener, and Boiler QB Painter has thrown 10 TD passes in first two games! (DNP...SR: Central Michigan 2-0)

Cincinnati 23 - MIAMI-OHIO 19--Miami-O. covered again in heartbreaking OT loss at Minny, rallying behind soph QB Raudabaugh's 222 YP in relief. However, the effort carried a heavy pricetag, as RedHawks best defensive player, LB Hudson, and arguably their best offensive player, RB Murphy, both finished the game on crutches due to knee injuries. Cincy outscored SE Missouri St. & Oregon St. by combined 93-6 tally, so wouldn't commit fully to Miami unless a little healthier.

(06-CINCY 24-Miami 10...M.15-12 C.42/253 M.25/36 M.21/48/2/190 C.5/11/1/43 C.2 M.1)

(06-CINCY -11' 24-10 05-MIAMI -10 44-16 04-CINCY +3' 45-26...SR: Miami-Ohio 59-45-7)

VIRGINIA TECH 36 - Ohio 10--Visit from MAC rep Ohio just what the doctor ordered for Tech's bruised psyche. Embarrassed Hokie defense will throttle limited Bobcat attack, and proud host has covered 5 of last 6 after a SU loss.

(05-VIRGINIA TECH -34 45-0...SR: Virginia Tech 3-0)

Iowa 23 - IOWA STATE 13--Talk about your ugly underdogs! ISU has lost at home to Kent State and Northern Iowa! But Cyclones are 8-1 vs. spread last 9 in this series, with sell-out crowd and throw-back uniforms ready for this one. Juco RB Bass (176 YR) helps sr. QB Meyer just enough to stay respectable vs. rising Hawkeyes and soph QB Christensen (4 TDP in 35-0 blanking of Syracuse).

(06-IOWA 27-Ia. St. 17...U.22-18 S.36/171 U.30/136 U.26/38/1/274 S.15/31/0/152 U.0 I.0)

(06-IOWA -13' 27-17 05-ISU +9' 23-3 04-IOWA -23 17-10...SR: Iowa 36-18)

KANSAS 51 - Toledo 23--Second annual "Battle of the Bulging Coaches." After 5-giveaway performance in LY's OT loss at Toledo, look for KU and new starting QB Reesing (6 TDP TY) to dismantle Rocket defense that has been pierced for 52 points in each of the team's first two games. All-Big XII CB Talib has a TD reception in each for KU. UT QB soph Opelt improving, but not the Rocket defense.

(06-TOLEDO 37-Kan. 31 (OT)...K.23-14 K.40/148 T.30/101 K.23/41/4/243 T.15/47/0/136 T.0 K.1)

(06-TOLEDO -4' 37-31 (OT) 04-KANSAS -3 63-14...SR: Kansas 2-1)

NORTHERN ILLINOIS 30 - Eastern Michigan 10--Embarrassing loss to Southern Illinois ensures that Joe Novak's Huskies will show up with fire in their bellies vs. EMU. Eagle offense has scored 1 TD in its last 4 games and ranks 114th in total offense in early going this season. Expect NIU QB Nicholson, whose 6 ints. in first two games matches last year's total for the season, to respond with huge game.

(06-N. Ill. 27-E. MICH. 0...N.29-7 N.45/240 E.24/45 N.24/37/3/261 E.10/18/0/67 N.1 E.1)

(06-Niu -7' 27-0 05-NIU -21 24-8 04-Niu -17' 34-16...SR: Northern Illinois 22-13-2)

WAKE FOREST 40 - Army 13--Defending ACC champ Wake desperate for win after 0-2 start. HC Grobe (former Air Force assistant) will try not to embarrass Army. But lightweight Black Knight def. front 7 overmatched against powerful Deacon ground game, while slowish Army DBs can't stay with Wake's speedy sr. WRs Moore & Marion.

(DNP...SR: Wake Forest 6-4)

FLORIDA 27 - Tennessee 24--Since UT's polished, accurate sr. QB Ainge has quickly developed rapport with emerging WRs l. Taylor & A. Rogers (both had 100+ receiving vs. Southern Miss), balanced Vol attack finds room to roam vs. young Florida defense that yielded 24 2nd-H points vs. Troy last week. And don't envision Tebow-led Florida attack erupting vs. well-coached UT defense that tackled & covered more effectively vs. Golden Eagles. Vols own the more formidable, deeper ground attack with RB Coker back & gifted frosh Creer (9 ypc vs. USM) contributing, so this SEC war is decided late. Fulmer 7-2 as an SEC dog since '04. TV--CBS

(06-Fla. 21-TENN. 20...F.22-13 F.41/121 T.23/M11 T.18/33/2/231 F.15/25/1/199 F.0 T.0)

(06-Fla. -3' 21-20 FLA. -6' 16-7 04-TENN. -3 30-28...SR: Tennessee 19-17)

MICHIGAN 24 - Notre Dame 20--How the mighty have fallen! Injury to Michigan QB Henne, coupled with "guaranteed win" by Wolverine RB Hart, makes us look at Notre Dame as the lesser of two evils in this game. Facing Oregon,Wolverines were unable to solve defensive issues which plagued them against Appalachian State. ND got a bit of an offensive lift from frosh QB Clausen, and he will find easier going vs. struggling Michigan.

(06-Mich. 47-N. DAME 21...M.17-14 M.41/120 N.17/4 N.25/49/3/241 M.13/22/1/220 M.0 N.2)

(06-Mich. +5 47-21 05-Und +7' 17-10 04-UND +12 28-20...SR: Michigan 19-14-1)

OKLAHOMA 54 - Utah State 3--Utah State "improving" (3 TDs on offense first two games; only 18 all of LY). However, OU is rampaging (65 ppg TY) behind RS frosh QB Sam Bradford (8 TDP). It's nice for a RS frosh QB to take over a team with an excellent OL, fine RBs, two NFL-caliber WRs (Kelly & Iglesias), speedy TE (Gresham), and to be backed by a havoc-wreaking defense (2 TDs so far)! (DNP...SR: Oklahoma 3-0)

OREGON 38 - Fresno State 17--In years past, we'd have been almost as excited about a chance to take Fresno plus big points as we would about a date with Beyonce'. And perhaps Pat Hill's Bulldogs are "back" after QB Brandstater finally displayed long-missing confidence at Texas A&M. But not interested in picking a spot where rampaging UO (44 ppg) slows down, especially with sr. QB Dixon (368 total yards at Michigan) on fire.

(06-Ore. 31-FRES. ST. 24...O.21-20 F.41/206 O.34/139 O.23/36/0/240 F.16/33/2/150 O.1 F.0)

(06-Oregon -3' 31-24 05-OREGON -2' 37-34...SR: Oregon 5-2)

MICHIGAN STATE 35 - Pittsburgh 17--MS HC Dantonio obviously has turned MSU in the right direction, as team seems rejuvenated behind RBs Ringer & Caulcrick (combined 154 ypg rushing) & a surprisingly tough defensive front (5th in country vs. the run). Pitt, conversely, has suffered some problematic injuries early, including losing QB Stull, WR Kinder and a couple of offensive line starters. Panthers move way up in class following home games vs. Eastern Michigan & Grambling.

(06-Mich. St. 38-PITT 23...M.24-22 M.48/335 P.20/81 P.28/47/2/277 M.16/25/1/198 M.1 P.1)

(06-Michigan State +2' 38-23...SR: Michigan State 5-0-1)

Ohio State 17 - WASHINGTON 16--Since it's apparently going to take a while for OSU to replace firepower of graduated Heisman winner Troy Smith & homerun WR/KR Ted Ginn Jr., not too interested in laying points with Buckeyes on road, especially vs. rejuvenated U-Dub. RS frosh QB Locker already doing a good Pat White imitation running Huskies' new West Virginia-like "O," and Ty Willingham's quick "D" can neutralize still-learning new OSU QB Boeckman. REGIONAL TV--ABC (DNP...SR: Ohio State 7-3)

Texas 29 - UCF 16--Ambitious UCF ambitiously christening its brand new Bright House Networks Stadium against a mighty foe in mighty Texas. Still, while host has likely bitten off more than it can chew, Knights probably do have enough rushing (jr. RB Kevin Smith 217 yards in opener) & defense to hold their own. Longhorn QB McCoy, who threw just 7 ints. LY, has been picked 4 times in first 2 games. TV--ESPN2 (FIRST MEETING)

CALIFORNIA 48 - Louisiana Tech 23--Cal's flash can be as distracting as Pamela Anderson, which (like Pam?) can make it easy to overlook Bears' recent deficiencies laying big points (1-10-1 last 12 laying DDs). And while La Tech's emotional reservoir might be on empty after OT loss vs. Hawaii, Bulldogs showing a bit more bite on "D" under new HC Dooley, while QB Champion effectively dinking away in new ball-control attack.

(DNP...SR: Louisiana Tech 1-0)

Ucla 26 - UTAH 10--Utah HC Whittingham making more adjustments than John McCain's presidential campaign, as shoulder injury to QB B. Johnson (likely out until October) forcing Utes to scuttle option elements of attack with less-mobile sr. Grady now at controls. And resultant power outage (Utes just 9.5 ppg first 2) a concern vs. quick-footed UCLA "D" that's licking its chops in anticipation of pressuring a slow-footed, 6-7 signal-caller in pocket. Karl Dorrell's Bruins (25-12-1 vs. line last 38) have emerged as spread force.

(06-UCLA 31-Utah 10...Uc.26-15 Ut.23/112 Uc.41/107 Uc.25/34/0/318 Ut.14/34/2/175 Uc.0 Ut.1)

(06-UCLA -3 31-10...SR: UCLA 8-0)

*NAVY 30 - Ball State 27--There's always a risk that Navy's option will distort time of possession and dominate proceedings, especially vs. a mid-level MAC opponent whose defense won't be confused with LSU's. But rebuilt Mid "D" (nine first-year starters) not mistaken for Pittsburgh's Steel Curtain of the past, which should give accomplished Ball State QB Davis a chance to keep Cards within earshot. (DNP...SR: Ball State 1-0)

*INDIANA 37 - Akron 16--Midwest observers extremely impressed with job Bill Lynch is doing with Indiana this season. Dynamic offense orchestrated by QB Kellen Lewis very effective for Hoosiers, but real surprise is the play of the defensive front seven, choking off the run and recording 13 sacks in first two games. Akron offense has been mostly ineffective (12 straight 3-and-outs at Ohio State), with new QB Jaquemain having trouble as revamped OL a main reason Zips are 116th in total offense. (FIRST MEETING)

*EAST CAROLINA 28 - Southern Miss 24--Early showdown between top contenders in C-USA's East Division. Significant rush edge to USM & electric soph RB Fletcher (1581 YR last 1+ seasons). But new ECU QB P. Pinkney (406 YP & 3 TDs last week) has been very impressive. Will he, a stout front 7, and rowdy home crowd at Dowdy-Ficklen be enough to get Pirates past stubborn Eagles?

(06-E. Car. 20-S. MISS 17 (OT)...E.20-9 E.41/102 S.28/101 E.20/33/2/197 S.13/20/1/79 E.0 S.0)

(06-Ecu +6 20-17 (OT) 05-Usm -7 33-7 04-USM -18' 51-10...SR: Southern Miss 24-8)

*MISSOURI 49 - Western Michigan 24--First home game for Mizzou and dynamic QB Daniel, who has 8 TDP first two games to 5 different receivers with no interceptions. There are still concerns about the Tiger defense, especially vs. Western WR Jamarko Simmons (28 recs. first 2 games!). However, Bronco defense (99 points so far) not stepping up well. MU stoppers have 7 takeaways first two. (DNP...SR: Missouri 1-0)

*WASHINGTON STATE 38 - Idaho 17--Familiarity factor between these neighbors has increased further now that ex-Wazzu d.c. Akey has moved across border to become Idaho HC. And Vandals getting some pleasant surprises in early going from poised RS frosh QB Enderle (0 ints. first 2 starts) & RS frosh RB D. Jackson. But need full value before backing rivalry dog now that Wazzu QB Brink (5 TDP vs. SDSU) finding groove.

(06-WASH. ST. 56-Idaho 10...W.25-17 W.43/344 I.32/83 W.18/24/0/293 I.14/36/1/220 W.1 I.1)

(06-WSU -17' 56-10 05-WSU -27' 38-26 04-WSU -25 49-8...SR: Wash. St. 69-16-3)

*Houston 42 - TULANE 23--New Green Wave HC Bob Toledo is a creative offensive tactician, but Tulane's defense looks like it's going to be a problem (again). Houston's scorching sr. RB Alridge (959 YR on 10 ypc LY!), who had 205 YR and an 86-yard TDC in opener at Oregon, will run wild on fast Superdome track.

(06-HOU. 45-Tulane 7...H.26-8 H.35/244 T.23/55 H.27/45/1/377 T.16/29/1/169 H.1 T.1)

(06-HOU. -14 45-7 05-Hou. -2 35-14 at Laf. 04-HOU. -9' 24-3...SR: Houston 8-4)

*KENTUCKY 42 - Louisville 41--In what figures to be an offensive shoot-out between these two heated rivals, take any available points with confident Kentucky, primed to snap 4-game series losing streak. Wildcats marvelous, mistake-free QB Woodson (no ints. last 206 attempts!) and a more potent ground assault (554 YR so far; only 22 YR vs. L'ville LY) will do lots of business vs. reeling Card defense that permitted a whopping 555 yds. in 58-42 win vs. Middle Tennessee St. And while Cards prolific QB Brohm will do his thing, L'ville a little undisciplined on both sides of ball (19 penalties so far!) under new HC Kragthorpe.

(06-LVL. 59-Ky. 27...L.31-8 L.55/363 K.19/22 L.20/32/0/268 K.10/26/0/238 L.1 K.1)

(06-LVL. -22' 59-27 05-Lvl. -22 31-24 04-LVL. -9' 28-0...SR: Kentucky 10-9)

*ALABAMA 27 - Arkansas 16--Since mastermind HC Saban immediately working his magic at Bama (his halftime "talk" spurred RB Grant vs. Vandy), strongly support hosts itchin' to avenge LY's painful 24-23 OT at Arkansas (Tide missed 3 FGs, plus a PAT in OT!). Defense-reading QB J. P. Wilson (16 of 20 in LY's meeting) more refined than Hog counterpart Dick, who might still be missing top WR Monk (check status). Doubt Arkansas' Heisman candidate McFadden helps his case much vs. fast, re-energized, athletic Alabama "D" (no meaningful TDs allowed so far) well-prepared strategically under defensive guru Saban. CABLE TV--ESPN

(06-ARK. 24-Ala. 23 (OT)...Al.20-15 Ar.31/172 Al.52/118 Al.16/20/0/243 Ar.7/22/3/97 Ar.0 Al.1)

(06-ARK. -2' 24-23 (OT) 05-ALA. -15' 24-13 04-ARK. -5 27-10...SR: Alabama 21-15)

*Boston College 30 - GEORGIA TECH 27--Certainly can't knock Tech based on its first 2 games. Ramblin' Wreck defense wrecked Notre Dame's offense in opener, and starters got plenty of rest during last week's home romp over Samford. Still, not a bad matchup for BC. Star sr. QB Ryan's quick release will defuse host's frequent blitzes. And opportunistic Eagle defense (9 ints. in first 2 games!) might force less-experienced Tech triggerman Bennett into a few mistakes. REGIONAL TV--ABC

(DNP...SR: Georgia Tech 4-1)

*NORTHWESTERN 35 - Duke 14--Northwestern fortunate to survive against Nevada, but the 2nd-half rally in that game leaves the Wildcats 2-0 SU. NU QB Bacher hasn't thrown an interception, and Wildcat backup RB Brandon Roberson filled the void well when Tyrell Sutton was injured last week (ankle; check status). Duke, losers of 21 straight games, owns few dangerous offensive weapons to trade points with hi-octane Northwestern. (DNP...SR: EVEN 7-7)

*Texas Tech 48 - RICE 17--If Baylor QB Szymanski (412 YP, school-record 6 TDP!) was able to destroy the Rice defense, it's scary to think what TT's superb triggerman Harrell will do vs. old SWC rival that's not smoothly adjusting to rookie HC Bailiff. Owl QB Clement (4 ints. so far) unable to keep pace with explosive Red Raider spread, featuring highly-touted RS frosh 6-4 WR Crabtree (27 catches & 4 TDs so far!) and plethora of other speedy wide-outs. (DNP...SR: Texas Tech 25-20-1)

*Southern Cal 23 - NEBRASKA 17--Pete Carroll says he loves having a bye after his opener to heal, adjust, teach and prepare (USC held out several key players vs. Idaho). So look for an intense Trojan performance at Lincoln, where the Nebraska offense will face much more resistance than it did vs. injured Nevada and out-manned Wake Forest. Still, USC working in several key newcomers, and Trojan big gainers less frequent in post-Bush era. REGIONAL TV--ABC

(06-S. CAL 28-Neb. 10...S.26-10 S.31/142 N.36/68 S.25/37/0/257 N.9/17/0/143 S.0 N.1)

(06-SOUTHERN CAL -17' 28-10...SR: Southern Cal 2-0-1)

*Utep 31 - NEW MEXICO STATE 27--Must take price with an improved UTEP squad that now owns a credible ground attack to take pressure off developing QB Vittatoe (202 YP vs. Texas Tech). NMS 3rd-year HC Mumme still has a "mummy-like" defense (allowed 497 yds. & 44 pts. vs. New Mexico), and Aggies haven't beaten a major team outside the Sun Belt since 2002. By the way, UTEP limited Lobos to just 2 FGs on Sept. 1.

(06-UTEP 44-N. Mex. St. 38...N.33-20 U.27/123 N.23/67 N.48/73/1/506 U.18/26/2/414 U.1 N.1).

(06-UTEP -16' 44-38 05-Utep -9' 34-17 04-UTEP -7' 45-0...SR: UTEP 49-33-2)

*BOISE STATE 23 - Wyoming 17--Usually reluctant to pick a spot where Boise falls on blue carpet (Broncos 37-1 SU last 38 as host!). But last week's loss at Washington a reminder that revamped Bronco "O" and new QB Tharp still working out the kinks, and remember, Joe Glenn's Wyo "D" held LY's omnipotent Boise team to its lowest output (17 pts. & 246 yards) of '06. Cowboy "O" well-balanced (411 YR, 433 YP) thus far.

(06-Boise St. 17-WYO. 10...B.17-15 B.41/130 W.29/73 W.14/30/2/178 B.12/21/0/116 B.0 W.0)

(06-Boise State -7' 17-10...SR: Boise State 3-0)

*TULSA 27 - Byu 24--Defensive edge to visiting Cougars, who allowed only 142 YR in first 2 games. Still, with extra week to prepare, smart Tulsa sr. QB Paul Smith should find enough holes in BYU 2ndary to avenge LY's bitter defeat at Provo. Golden Hurricane offense got major contributions from touted true frosh FB/TE Clay & WR Whitmore in opening win at La.-Monroe.

(06-BYU 49-Tulsa 24...B.22-18 B.42/227 T.31/82 B.16/23/0/240 T.21/35/1/221 B.0 T.0)

(06-BYU -4' 49-24...SR: BYU 6-0)

*Hawaii 41 - UNLV 20--Were the preseason projections for these two off base? Perhaps so, at least based on last week. But UH now sufficiently warned about potential upgrades at UNLV after Rebs pushed Wisconsin, and we're going to assume that Warriors' narrow escape at La Tech will serve as wake-up call. Still a lot to ask of UNLV RS frosh QB T. Dixon to trade points with June Jones' Red Gun & Colt Brennan (already 10 TDP).

(06-HAWAII 42-Unlv 13...H.30-18 H.31/214 U.28/39 H.33/45/2/369 U.18/47/1/232 H.2 U.0)

(06-HAWAII -12' 42-13...SR: Hawaii 11-6)

*Florida State 24 - COLORADO 23--Although QB Weatherford did lead Florida State back from half-time deficit against lowly UAB last week at Tallahassee, revamped Seminole offense far from a finished product. And vaunted FSU defense has looked surprisingly vulnerable thus far. Visitor fortunate to escape with SU win against competent Colorado & clever HC Hawkins. TV-ESPN

(DNP...SR: Florida State 1-0)

*ARIZONA STATE 48 - San Diego State 13--Well, it didn't take ASU long to pick up some of the notorious bad habits associated with past Dennis Erickson teams (Sun Devils 12 penalties, including 7 personal fouls, last week vs. Colorado). But imagine what damage a confidence-restored ASU QB Carpenter can do vs. invisible SDSU "D" that made Wazzu QB Alex Brink (5 TDP) look like Dan Marino in Aztecs' embarrassing opener! (DNP...SR: Arizona State 9-0-1)

*ARIZONA 25 - New Mexico 22--Arizona's new Texas Tech-style spread started to get the hang of things last week vs. Northern Arizona (QB Tuitama 5 TDP vs. Lumberjacks), but we need a bit more evidence than domination of a lower-division foe before jumping on Wildcat bandwagon. Rocky Long's unorthodox UNM 3-3-5 "D" has lots of experience vs. "video football" attacks, and Lobo soph QB Porterie (342 YP vs. NMSU) developing confidence of his own.

(DNP...SR: Arizona 43-18-3)

*STANFORD 27 - San Jose State 23--It's difficult to recommend Stanford squad that's lost 14 of its last 15 and has yet to experience the heady nectar of victory in its rebuilt stadium (Cardinal 0-6 in new digs). But be advised SJSU is badly beaten up after pair of lopsided road losses, and HC Dick Tomey can be excused for placing an emergency call to FEMA after top offensive threats QB Tafralis & RB J. Davis already KO'd.

(06-SJS 35-Stan. 34...Sj.25-23 Sj.49/342 St.43/185 St.18/28/1/233 Sj.15/17/1/115 Sj.1 St.2)

(06-SJS +10 35-34 04-STANFORD -17' 43-3...SR: Stanford 46-14-1)

ADDED GAMES

MIAMI-FLORIDA 45 - Florida Intl. 3--Both teams on guard against repeat of LY's bravado-fueled brawl, although Miami also looking to rebuild its bad-ass image after getting spanked at OU. New HCs Shannon & Cristobal played for Hurricanes at different times, but spent last few seasons together on Miami coaching staff! CABLE TV--ESPNU

(06-MIAMI 35-Fla. Intl. 0...M.16-12 M.29/90 F.31/28 M.17/26/0/189 F.12/25/2/86 M.1 F.1)

(06-MIAMI-FLORIDA -26' 35-0...SR: Miami-Florida 1-0)

*TEXAS A&M 38 - La.-Monroe 7--Even with potentially distracting visit to Miami-Florida next Thursday, still prefer to lay the lumber with A&M following harrowing 47-45 OT win vs. Fresno State (Aggies led 19-0 at H). A&M's punishing ground attack eventually wears down thin ULM front 7. And doubt Warhawks spread option finds much daylight vs. Aggie "D" that regularly faces a vastly-superior version of it daily in practice. ULM, which got "back-door" cover at Clemson (trailed 49-13 in 4th), has it shut closed in College Station.

(FIRST MEETING)

*ARKANSAS STATE 34 - Smu 28--Sure, ASU was overmatched at Dallas LY. But good chance scrappy Indians able to avenge that humiliation back in Jonesboro TY. Resourceful soph QB Leonard will do plenty of damage against speed-shy SMU defense that's permitted 1074 YP (!) in first 2 games.

(06-SMU 55-Ark. St. 9...S.20-14 S.31/226 A.41/69 S.17/28/1/231 A.13/28/1/193 S.1 A.4)

(06-SMU -6' 55-9...SR: SMU 1-0)

*Minnesota 29 - FLORIDA ATLANTIC 23--Acknowledge FAU's well-documented shortcomings vs. non-Sun Belt foes (no covers last 8--7 of those on road), but Owls finally get one of those opponents in south Florida. And though Minnesota RS frosh QB Weber starting to get more comfy running new spread, Gopher "D" has been springing leaks fore and aft vs. modest MAC opposition thus far. (at Dolphin Stadium) (05-MINNESOTA -32 46-7...SR: Minnesota 1-0)

*LSU 49 - Middle Tennessee State 3--Middle's surprising 42-point outburst vs. L'Ville only serves to forewarn a menacing LSU defense that arguably has more NFL prospects than any unit east of Los Angeles. Tigers poised, highly-mobile QB Flynn (297 YR, 301 YP vs. Virginia Tech) taking full advantage of his loaded supporting cast, while hungry backup pilot Perrrilloux (5 for 5 & 2 TDP vs. Hokies) helps extend margin late in this blowout in Baton Rouge.

(DNP...SR: LSU 1-0)

COLLEGE KEY RELEASES

AUBURN by 24 over Mississippi State

MICHIGAN STATE by 18 over Pittsburgh

BOSTON COLLEGE by 3 over Georgia Tech

UTEP by 4 over New Mexico State

posted by phantom

Sept. 10 2007 8:10pm

26 replies

0 likes

Confidential Kick-Off!! The Gold Sheet!!

America's Handicapping Leaders For 50 Seasons!

11 WASHINGTON over *Philadelphia

Late Score Forecast:

WASHINGTON 20 - *Philadelphia 16

(Monday, September 17)

Washington RB Clinton Portis showed few effects from his knee tendinitis last

week in rushing 17 times for 98 yards (5.8 ypc) and a score against a tough

Miami defense that allowed the 2nd-fewest rush TDs in the NFL last season.

Redskin QB Jason Campbell connected with WR Antwaan Randle El 5 times for 162

yards against the Dolphins, and he should make progress, as the win against

the Dolphins should be a significant morale boost. Philly's offense looked

anything but sharp at Green Bay last week, as Eagle QB Donovan McNabb

completed just 15 of 33 passes in his first action since injuring his knee in

Week 11 LY. Eagles also lost key defender CB Lito Sheppard (2 Pro Bowls; 6

ints. LY) with a sprained knee against the Pack (he was already nursing a

strained oblique).

10 *INDIANA over Akron

Late Score Forecast:

*INDIANA 39 - Akron 16

Indiana HC Bill Lynch has done an excellent job getting the Hoosiers mentally

ready to play this season in the wake of former coach Terry Hoeppner's death.

The team is focused and playing with purpose. Talent-wise, this is one of

the most gifted Hoosier squads in years, as maturing soph QB Kellen Lewis has

thrown for 3 scores in each of the first two games as his receiving stars

James Hardy (6-7; 51 catches LY) & James Bailey (6-2; 40 recs. LY) have been

augmented by emergence of soph smurf wideout Ray Fisher (9 catches vs. W.

Mich.). Akron attack has been constricted by delayed development of soph QBs

Chris Jaquemain & lefty scrambler Carlton Jackson. Neither has distinguished

himself, and Zip HC Brookhart has also been hampered by an OL that has 4 new

starters (2 are RS frosh, another a soph). Two-TD spread not enough.

10 *NORTH CAROLINA over Virginia

Late Score Forecast:

*NORTH CAROLINA 27 - Virginia 13

Long-time ACC scouts are extremely bullish on chemistry-rich, hungry UNC

squad that's thrilled to be playing for upbeat, respected 1st-year mentor

Butch Davis after suffering through 5 years of bumbling, brutish John

Bunting. Tar Heels quick-learning, accurate 6-3 RS frosh QB Yates (66%; 344

YP vs. E. Carolina) will burn a Virginia 2ndary that has tendency to give up

too many big plays. Conversely, Cavs frustrated HC Groh says he will

continue to rotate his QBs (inserted true frosh Lalich), since soph

triggerman Sewell has seriously struggled in early going without top WR

Ogletree (out for year). Either QB will get pressure from hard-charging UNC

frosh DT Austin (rated nation's top prep DLman). So, look for rejuvenated &

revenge-minded Heels (lost 23-0 in Charlottesville LY) to cover small number

vs. poor-travelin' UVA squad that's 1-9 as a road dog since 2004.

10 *ALABAMA over Arkansas

Late Score Forecast:

*ALABAMA 28 - Arkansas 13

SEC scouts say it won't take much for HC Nick Saban to get the Crimson Tide

ready for this match vs. Arkansas, which won LY's meeting 24-23 in OT in

Fayetteville, thanks to three missed Alabama FGs in regulation and a blown

PAT in the extra session! Moreover, improving jr. QB John Parker Wilson, who

was making his first road start in that contest, provides the Tide with an

important balance edge on offense. Razorbacks had last week off to prepare

more plays for their versatile, excellent RB duo of McFadden & F. Jones.

However, with the health of star WR Marcus Monk (knee) up in the air, Saban

can focus his revamped, NFL-style, Bama defense (255-pound ILB Prince Hall

returned from suspension last week) vs. Hogs' ground game. In the first of

several SEC "crucials" for Saban's crew, Red Elephants get their revenge.

10 *FLA. ATLANTIC over Minnesota

(at Dolphin Stadium)

Late Score Forecast:

*FLA. ATLANTIC 29 - Minnesota 27

Acknowledge FAU's recent woes outside of Sun Belt, failing to cover last 8 in

role. But Owls usually on road for those paydays (including the last 7), and

now get rare chance to host BCS conference foe in south Florida. And Howard

Schnellenberger's troops are catching Minnesota at a good time. That's

because Gophers in adjustment phase for 1st-year HC Tim Brewster, with RS

frosh QB Andy Weber still getting feel for Minny's new spread attack.

Meanwhile, early efforts vs. modest MAC opposition have underlined concerns

about Gopher "D," especially suspect 2ndary already torched by undynamic

Bowling Green & Miami-O attacks. No reason maturing FAU "O" and emerging soph

QB Rusty Smith can't do same. And vet (10 starters back), quick-footed Owl

"D" that put clamps on potent Middle Tennessee in opener not a bad matchup

vs. young UM QB Weber, making first road start.

TOTALS: UNDER (42Â«) in Minnesota-Detroit game-Vikes' defense rugged; can't

trust QB Tarvaris Jackson to put up too many points for visitor; OVER (44;

est.) in Seattle-Arizona game-Zona defense has problems vs. Holmgren, who has

gone "over" 14 of last 18 overall away.

HONORABLE MENTION (Nine-Rated Games): PURDUE (-20) vs. Central Michigan-QB

Painter and Boiler offense scoring nearly at will; Purdue defense vastly

superior to that of Chippewas...IOWA STATE (+17) vs. Iowa-Price inflated

after last week's results; Cyclones have just enough to extend 8-1 spread

mark in series; KANSAS (-22) vs. Toledo-Soph QB Reesing sparking Jayhawk

offense; Rockets giving up 52 ppg!...CENTRAL FLORIDA (+19) vs.

Texas-Longhorns WR corp banged up; Horns don't dominate with run as they used

to when Vince was QB; JACKSONVILLE (-11) vs. Atlanta-Post-Vick era off to bad

start in Minnesota; it might get worse facing angry Jaguars

posted by phantom

Sept. 10 2007 8:11pm
0 likes

Pointwise

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

COLLEGE KEY RELEASES

KANSAS over Toledo RATING: 1 62-13

MISSOURI over Western Michigan RATING: 1 48-17

NEW MEXICO over Arizona RATING: 2 27-24

ARIZONA STATE over San Diego St RATING: 3 58-10

TENNESSEE over Florida RATING: 4 20-23

NORTH CAROLINA over Virginia RATING: 4 28-13

CENTRAL FLORIDA over Texas RATING: 5 20-31

MISSISSIPPI over Vanderbilt RATING: 5 24-17

NFL KEY RELEASES

NEW YORK GIANTS over Green Bay RATING: 2 30-17

CHICAGO over Kansas City RATING: 3 34-10

SAN FRANCISCO over St Louis RATING: 4 23-24

TENNESSEE over Indianapolis RATING: 4 22-24

CINCINNATI over Cleveland RATING: 5 27-13

posted by phantom

Sept. 11 2007 2:40pm
0 likes

marc lawrence trends

College Football 2-Minute Handicap

Thursday, Sep 13

W Virginia 5-1 in 2nd of BB RGâ€¦ 3-1 bef E Carolinaâ€¦ 1-4 favs in Game Threeâ€¦ 2-10 vs ACC

MARYLAND SERIES: 3-1 L4 Hâ€¦ 0-5 H vs non conf oppâ€¦ 1-6 off SU W 14 > ptsâ€¦ 1-4 H Game Three

Tcu SERIES: 4-0 L4â€¦ 0-3 aft Texasâ€¦ 1-5 A vs con opp w/ revâ€¦ 1-5 in 2nd of BB RGâ€¦ 1-4 A Game Three

AIR FORCE 6-1 Game Threeâ€¦ 8-3 as con HDâ€™sâ€¦ 0-3 aft Utahâ€¦ 1-5 w/ con rev

Friday, Sep 14

Oklahoma St 10-0 bef Tex Techâ€¦ 6-1 as RFâ€™s 6 > ptsâ€¦ 8-3 as non con favsâ€¦ 2-5 Game Three

TROY 4-0 aft SEC oppâ€¦ 0-5 off BB RGâ€¦ 0-2 bef La-Layette

Saturday, Sep 15

Illinois 5-0 A w/ non con revâ€¦ 3-0 A Game Threeâ€¦ 1-4 in 1st of BB RG

SYRACUSE 5-0 vs non con opp w/ revâ€¦ 3-0 bef Louisvilleâ€¦ 7-1 Game Three

Temple SERIES: 3-0 L3â€¦ 8-2 vs Big Eastâ€¦ 3-1 Game Threeâ€¦ 0-4 in 1st of BB RG

CONNECTICUT 4-1 as favs 17 > ptsâ€¦ 8-3-1 vs MACâ€¦ 1-4 in 2nd of BB HG

Virginia 5-1 Game Threeâ€¦ 2-8 A vs con opp w/ revâ€¦ 2-5 aft Duke

N CAROLINA 3-0 Game Threeâ€¦ 6-2 H w/ con revâ€¦ 1-5 in 1st con gm

Buffalo 2-0 Game Threeâ€¦ 4-1 in 2nd of BB RGâ€¦ 4-1 as DD dogs off con RG

PENN STATE 6-0 Game Threeâ€¦ 5-0 vs MACâ€¦ 4-1 as HFâ€™s 21 > ptsâ€¦ 3-1 bef Mich

Mississippi 5-2 bef Floridaâ€¦ 0-9 in 1st con gmâ€¦ 1-5 as con dog 6 < ptsâ€¦ 1-4 Game Three

VANDERBILT SERIES: 5-1 L6â€¦ 3-0 Game Threeâ€¦ 1-6 in 2nd of BB HGâ€¦ 2-9 as con favs 7 < pts

Miss State 6-2 aft Tulaneâ€¦ 1-5 in 2nd of BB RGâ€¦ 1-5 Game Threeâ€¦2-5 as con RDâ€™s 21 > pts

AUBURN SERIES: 5-0 L5â€¦ 9-0 in 1st con gmâ€¦ 4-1 Game Threeâ€¦ 1-4 vs con opp w/ rev

C Michigan 3-1 Game Threeâ€¦ 3-1 as dogs 15 > ptsâ€¦ 1-4 aft Toledoâ€¦ 3-8 vs Big 10

PURDUE 1-5 H vs MACâ€¦ 1-4 Game Threeâ€¦ 1-4 bef Minnesotaâ€¦ 2-5 in 2nd of BB HG

Cincinnati SERIES: 3-1 L4â€¦ 12-1 off BB HGâ€¦ 1-4 Game Threeâ€¦ 2-5 A vs non con opp

MIAMI-OH 4-1 H off BB RGâ€¦ 0-3-1 in 1st HGâ€¦ 1-5 as fav/dog 3 < pts

Ohio 5-2 as dogs 24 > ptsâ€¦ 1-11 in 2nd of BB RGâ€¦ 1-5 Game Threeâ€¦ 3-8 A vs non con opp

VIRGINIA TECH 8-1 Game Threeâ€¦ 5-1 in 1st of BB HGâ€¦ 8-2 off SU non con Lâ€¦ 0-4 as non con favs 24 > pts

Iowa 1-5 Game Threeâ€¦ 1-4 as non con RFâ€™s 5 > ptsâ€¦ 21-5 vs opp w/ non con revâ€¦ 3-8 in 1st of BB RG

IOWA ST SERIES: 8-1 L9â€¦ 4-0 w/ non con revâ€¦ 3-1 in 3rd straight HG

Toledo 3-1 Game Threeâ€¦ 0-4 aft C Michâ€¦ 0-4 in 2nd of BB RGâ€¦ 0-3 vs non con opp w/ rev

KANSAS 4-0 in 3rd straight HGâ€¦ 3-0 H Game Threeâ€¦ 4-1 H w/ non con rev

E Michigan SERIES: 3-0 L3 Aâ€¦ 6-2 A w/ con revâ€¦ 3-1 aft Ball Stâ€¦ 1-5 dogs 10 < pts

N ILLINOIS 6-2 as con favs 13 < ptsâ€¦ 0-2 Game Threeâ€¦ 1-3 as favs vs con opp w/ rev

Army 8-0 in 1st of BB RGâ€¦ 4-1 as dogs 17 > ptsâ€¦ 3-1 A Game Threeâ€¦ 4-12 vs ACC (1-8 A).

WAKE FOREST SERIES: 6-0 L6â€¦ 0-9 favs 14 > ptsâ€¦ 0-8 bef Marylandâ€¦ 1-5 Game Threeâ€¦ 6-17 in 2nd of BB HG (0-9 as favs)

Tennessee SERIES: Visitor 5-2â€¦ 4-0 Game Threeâ€¦ 6-1 w/ con revâ€¦ 14-5 A vs conâ€¦ 2-5-1 in 1st con gm

FLORIDA 6-1 in 2nd of BB HGâ€¦ 5-1 as HFâ€™s 10 < ptsâ€¦ 1-7 vs con opp w/ revâ€¦ 1-3 Game Three

Notre Dame SERIES: 6-2 L8 / 4-1 L5 Aâ€¦ 6-1 in 2nd of BB RGâ€¦ 6-3 as dogs 6 > vs Big 10â€¦ 5-2 A w/ revâ€¦ 3-8 Game Three (1-4 A)

MICHIGAN 3-1 Game Threeâ€¦ 3-1 bef Penn Stâ€¦5-2 vs con opp w/ revâ€¦ 1-5 in 2nd of BB HG

Utah St 3-1 as dogs 30 > ptsâ€¦ 0-6 bef con HGâ€¦ 1-6 in 2nd of BB RGâ€¦ 1-6 in Game Threeâ€¦

OKLAHOMA 8-1 as non con favs 35 > ptsâ€¦ 3-1 Game Threeâ€¦ 0-3 bef Tulsaâ€¦ 1-12 in 3rd straight HG

Fresno St 7-1 as dogs 4 > pts vs Pac 10â€¦ 6-1 Game Threeâ€¦ 0-3 in 2nd of BB RGâ€¦ *2-8 off SU L 14 > pts

OREGON 5-1 vs non con opp w/ revâ€¦ 7-2 Game Threeâ€¦ 1-3 bef Stanford

Pittsburgh 5-1 A w/ non con revâ€¦ 4-1 vs Big 10â€¦ 0-2 bef Connecticutâ€¦ 1-3 Game Three

MICHIGAN ST 0-4 in 3rd straight HGâ€¦ 0-3-1 vs non con opp w/ revâ€¦ 0-3 H Game Threeâ€¦ 1-5 as non con favs 7 < pts

Ohio St 7-0 A Game Threeâ€¦ 7-1 as non con RFâ€™sâ€¦ 4-1 vs Pac 10â€¦ 4-9 favs off BB HG

WASHINGTON 4-1 Game Threeâ€¦ 5-2 H vs Big 10â€¦ 8-3 off SU home dog Wâ€¦ 1-6 bef UCLA

Texas 4-0 aft TCUâ€¦ 3-0-1 vs CUSAâ€¦ 4-1 as non con DD RFâ€¦ 1-6 bef Riceâ€¦ 3-6 Game Three (2-5 A)

C FLORIDA 0-5 Game twoâ€¦ 0-4 w/ restâ€¦ 0-4 H vs non con oppâ€¦ 1-4 in 1st lined HG

La Tech 0-9 as non con RDâ€™s 3 > ptsâ€¦ 0-2 aft Hawaiiâ€¦ 0-2 A Game Threeâ€¦ 1-4 bef Fresno St

CALIFORNIA 5-2 in 1st of BB HGâ€¦ 1-7 vs WACâ€¦ 1-7 as favs 20 > ptsâ€¦ 1-5 H game Three

Ucla 8-1 A vs non con opp w/ revâ€¦ 5-1 vs Mountain Westâ€¦ 2-4 A Game Three

UTAH 3-0 H w/ non con revâ€¦ 6-1 in 2nd of BB HGâ€¦ 6-2 aft Air Forceâ€¦ 3-1 Game Threeâ€¦ 2-5 bef UNLV

Ball St 4-1 vs non con off BB con gmsâ€¦ 4-1 in 2nd of BB RGâ€¦ 1-3 aft E Michâ€¦ 3-9 as RDâ€™s 14 > pts

NAVY 9-2 Game Threeâ€¦ 2-5 bef Duke

Akron 4-1 as RDâ€™s 7 < ptsâ€¦ 0-4 A bef Kent Stâ€¦ 1-5 Game Three

INDIANA 5-1 as non con HFâ€™sâ€¦ 4-1 in 1st lined HGâ€¦ 2-8 off BB SU Wâ€¦ 2-4 H Game Three

S Mississippi 3-0 aft Tennesseeâ€¦ 12-1 Game Threeâ€¦ 4-1 in 1st con gmâ€¦ 7-3 as con RFâ€™s

E CAROLINA 4-0 Game Threeâ€¦ 5-1 in 2nd of BB HGâ€¦ 6-2 vs con opp w/ revâ€¦ 9-3 L12 as HDâ€™s

W Michigan 2-0 off non con home Lâ€¦ 5-1 as non con RDâ€™s 20 < ptsâ€¦ 3-1 Game Threeâ€¦ 1-4 Sept RG

MISSOURI 4-1 H Game Threeâ€¦ 4-1 H vs non con oppâ€¦ 6-2 vs MACâ€¦ 1-11 favs off BB SU W

Idaho 4-1 bef BB HGâ€¦ 1-5 Game Threeâ€¦ 3-9 as dogs 21 > ptsâ€¦ 2-6 vs Pac 10

WASH ST 7-1 bef RG vs USCâ€¦ 6-2 H Game Threeâ€¦ 6-2 vs WACâ€¦ 10-3 in 2nd of BB HGâ€¦ 2-5 as favs 15 > pts

Houston SERIES: 4-0 L4â€¦ 7-2 A w/ restâ€¦ 2-7 Game Twoâ€¦ 4-10 A vs con opp w/ rev

TULANE 6-1 Game Twoâ€¦ 0-4 dogs aft Miss Stâ€¦ 1-5 H w/ con rev

Louisville SERIES: 3-1 L4 / 3-1 L4 Aâ€¦ 7-1 in1st RGâ€¦ 7-2 as non conf favs 10 < ptsâ€¦ 7-3 A Game Three

KENTUCKY 3-1 Game Threeâ€¦ 5-2 of BB SU Wâ€¦ 1-5 as dogs in 3rd straight HGâ€¦ 2-5 w/ non con rev

Arkansas SERIES: 3-1 L4â€¦ 6-0 A bef BB HGâ€¦ 4-1 as RDâ€™s 6 < Ptsâ€¦ 6-2 vs con opp w/ revâ€¦ 5-2 dogs in Game two

ALABAMA 4-1 Game Threeâ€¦ 0-5 as con HFâ€™s 6 < ptsâ€¦ 1-6 bef Georgiaâ€¦ 1-4 in 1st con HG

Bost Coll SERIES: 3-1 L4â€¦ 7-1 as dogs 7 < Ptsâ€¦ 1-5 off BB RGâ€¦ 1-3 A Game Threeâ€¦ 2-6 in 1st lined RG

GEORGIA TECH 6-1 off BB SU W 21 > ptsâ€¦ 11-2 bef Virginiaâ€¦ 7-3 Game Three

Duke SERIES: 3-1 L4 Aâ€¦ 8-2 in 2nd of BB RGâ€¦ 1-4 vs Big 10â€¦ 2-6 A Game Threeâ€¦ 3-8 aft Virginia

Nâ€™WESTERN SERIES: 4-1 L5â€¦ 5-1 in 2nd of BB HGâ€¦ 5-2 as non con favs 7 > ptsâ€¦ 8-2 bef Ohio Stâ€¦ 1-6 Game Three

Texas Tech 0-5 in 1st of BB RGâ€¦ 3-12 Game Threeâ€¦ 3-10 as non con RFâ€™s

RICE 1-8 H vs non con oppâ€¦ 1-6 aft Baylorâ€¦ 1-6 Game Threeâ€¦ 1-4 bef RG vs Texas

Usc 8-1 vs non con opp w/ revâ€¦ 4-1 Game Twoâ€¦ 10-3 w/ restâ€¦ CARROLL: 14-5 SUATS w/rest

NEBRASKA 3-1 L4 as HDâ€™sâ€¦ 7-2 in 1st of BB HGâ€¦ 1-4 dogs vs Pac 10â€¦ 2-6 Game Three

Texas El Paso 8-3 vs WACâ€¦ 1-8 vs non con opp w/ revâ€¦ 1-4 L5 as RFâ€™sâ€¦ 2-9 Game Three

N MEX ST 3-0-1 w/ non con revâ€¦ 6-1 Game Threeâ€¦ 1-4 aft N Mexicoâ€¦ 1-3 dogs vs CUSA

Wyoming 5-1 as non conf dog 13 < ptsâ€¦ 9-2 Game Threeâ€¦ 1-4 in 1st of BB RG

BOISE ST 6-1 in 1st of BB HGâ€¦ 9-2 favs 13 < ptsâ€¦ 5-2 Game Threeâ€¦ 2-5 favs vs non con opp w/ rev

Byu 6-0 in 2nd of BB RGâ€¦ 0-3 vs non con opp w/ revâ€¦ 1-6 bef HG vs Air Forceâ€¦ 3-11 Game Three

TULSA 5-0 w/ restâ€¦ 4-0 HDâ€™s 9 < ptsâ€¦ 3-1 Game Threeâ€¦ 4-11 in 1st of BB HG

Hawaii 4-1 Game Threeâ€¦ 3-0-1 vs non con opp w/ revâ€¦ 2-5 in 2nd of BB RG

UNLV SERIES: Host 4-0â€¦ 0-5 bef Utahâ€¦ 1-5 Game Threeâ€¦ 1-4 dogs w/ non con rev

Florida St 7-3 A Game Threeâ€¦0-4 as favs 6 < pts

COLORADO 0-7 in 1st HGâ€¦ 1-4 Game Threeâ€¦ 3-8 as non con HDâ€™s

San Diego St 8-2 dogs 17 > ptsâ€¦ 1-7 vs Pac 10â€¦ 3-9 Game Two

ARIZONA ST SERIES: 2-0 L2â€¦ 3-0 bef Oreg Stâ€¦ 6-1 Game Threeâ€¦ 5-1 in 3rd straight HG

New Mexico SERIES: 3-0 L3â€¦ 5-1 vs Pac 10â€¦ 5-1 aft HG vs N Mex Stâ€¦ 5-2 A game Three

ARIZONA 5-1 H bef Californiaâ€¦ 2-6 as non con HFâ€™sâ€¦ 2-4 Game Three

San Jose St 6-2 Game Threeâ€¦ 1-8 as RDâ€™s 10 < ptsâ€¦ 1-6 in 3rd straight RG

STANFORD SERIES: 4-1 L5 / 3-0 Hâ€¦ 4-1 Game Twoâ€¦ 1-5 favs w/ non con revâ€¦ 2-7 H w/ rest

ADDED GAMES

Fla Intl 0-5 in 1st of BB RGâ€¦ 0-5 as dogs 28 > pts

MIAMI-FLA 8-1 H off non con SU road Lâ€¦ 2-6 vs non con opp w/ rev

La Monroe 11-2 in 2nd of BB RG

TEXAS A&M 6-1 H Game Threeâ€¦ 1-4 in 3rd straight HG

Smu 1-5 aft N Texas

ARKANSAS ST 4-0 H w/ non con revâ€¦ 5-1 Game Three

Minnesota 10-1 Game Threeâ€¦ 7-1 favs off BB HG

FLA ATL 0-2 Game Threeâ€¦ 0-2 bef N Texas

Mid Tenn St 0-5 Game Threeâ€¦ 1-3 A vs non con opp

LSU 9-1 as non con favs 28 > ptsâ€¦ 4-1 Game Three

NFL 2-Minute Handicap

Sunday, Sep 16

Buffalo 14-2 Game Twoâ€¦SEPT: 6-1 A off SUATS lossâ€¦ JAURON: 15-1 off SU loss vs non div opp off SU win

PITTSBURGH SERIES: 7-0 L7/4-0 L4Hâ€¦ 2-7 Game Two

Cincinnati SERIES: 4-1 L5/3-1 L4Aâ€¦LEWIS: 6-1 as RF off SU winâ€¦1-6 O/U Game Two

CLEVELAND SU winner 8-0 Game Twoâ€¦ 2-10 H vs div opp off SUATS winâ€¦2-9 div dogs 7 < ptsâ€¦CRENNEL: 6-1 as dog off div game

Indianapolis SERIES: 6-2 L8/3-1 L4Aâ€¦9-1 RFâ€™s w/revâ€¦ SEPT: 10-2 RFâ€™sâ€¦2-8 Game Two w/rev

TENNESSEE 1-6 H off div game vs div opp off SU win w/revâ€¦1-6 Game Twoâ€¦SEPT: 2-8 vs div opp w /revâ€¦FISHER: 7-0 as HD off DD ATS loss

Houston SEPT: SU winner 15-1â€¦0-8 ATS as dog if W/L % is .500 >â€¦0-5 Game Twoâ€¦0-4 bef HG vs Coltsâ€¦1-9 non conf dogs 3 > ptsâ€¦ 2-10 A vs non conf oppâ€¦4-13 non div dogs > 3 ptsâ€¦KUBIAK: 1-4 off SUATS win

CAROLINA 5-0 H off SU dog win vs opp off SUATS lossâ€¦78-9 when win SU/39-5 Hâ€¦0-6 favs in 1st HGâ€¦SEPT: 0-6 favs vs opp off DD ATS winâ€¦SEPT: 1-6 HFâ€™S after allowing 17 > ptsâ€¦3-12 favs of 4-7 ptsâ€¦FOX: 2-9 HF vs > .500 opp

San Francisco SERIES: 5-0 L5/3-0 L3 Aâ€¦Dog in Rams series 6-1â€¦2-7 when lose SUâ€¦NOLAN: 5-0 as dog vs div oppâ€¦7-2 O/U Game Two

ST. LOUIS 3-17 if < .500 off SU fav loss vs opp w/revâ€¦10-52 H when allowing 28 > ptsâ€¦ LINEHAN: 7-2 O/U Game Two

Green Bay SERIES: 3-1 L4â€¦6-72 when lose SUâ€¦1-10 RDâ€™s vs NFC Eastâ€¦1-6 A Game Two

NY GIANTS SEPT: 7-1 off SU div lossâ€¦6-1 Game Twoâ€¦1-8 bef Redskinsâ€¦COUGHLIN: 20-3 vs opp off SU dog win (13-1 H)

Atlanta 4-0 as dogs vs opp off DD SU winâ€¦SU winner 12-1 Game Twoâ€¦7-2 dogs off SU lossâ€¦6-2 2nd of BB RGâ€™s

JACKSONVILLE SEPT: 9-1 H vs non-div oppâ€¦7-1 HFâ€™s off SU div win vs opp off SUATS winâ€¦5-1 v non-div opp off SU dog win

New Orleans 18-3 A vs div oppâ€¦9-2 RFâ€™s vs opp who scored < 10 pts LGâ€¦SEPT: 1-7 favs vs < .500 oppâ€¦1-6 Game Two vs opp w/revâ€¦2-8 favs off DD ATS lossâ€¦PAYTON: 7-1 A

TAMPA BAY SERIES: 3-1 L4/1-4 L5 Hâ€¦8-2 dogs vs < .500 div opp off SUATS lossâ€¦15-4 HDâ€™sâ€¦SEPT: 1-9 off SU non div loss

Minnesota SERIES: 4-0 L4/3-1 L4 Aâ€¦SU winner 15-2 Game Twoâ€¦ 8-78 when lose SU vs div oppâ€¦ CHILDRESS: 3-1 dog vs div opp

DETROIT 6-0 as HFâ€™s > 1 pt off DD ATS non conf winâ€¦ MARINELLI: 1-6 vs opp off SUATS win / 1-5 vs div opp

Dallas 4-1 Game Twoâ€¦0-9 as favs after scoring 35 > ptsâ€¦ 4-15 A vs non-conf opp

MIAMI 13-5 non div HDâ€™sâ€¦ 0-10 O/U Game Two

Seattle SERIES: 3-1 L4â€¦SEPT: 17-3 vs < .500 oppâ€¦ 0/6 O/U Game Two

ARIZONA 0-4 Game Twoâ€¦ SEPT: 6-18 H / 2-11 H vs div opp

Ny Jets 4-18 when O/U line is < 35 ptsâ€¦ 3-10 Game Twoâ€¦MANGINI: 5-1 off SU loss

BALTIMORE SERIES: 6-0 L6/3-0 L3 Hâ€¦SEPT: 13-3 HFâ€™sâ€¦ BILLICK: 13-2 H vs opp off DD SU loss / 4-0 O/U Game Two

Oakland 0-4 off SU non conf win vs > .500 oppâ€¦SEPT: 1-9 dogs vs div off non div gameâ€¦SEPT: 2-8 off non div SUATS lossâ€¦1-5 Game Two

DENVER SEPT: 10-2 if .500 > as div favsâ€¦12-3 Game Two/ (10-1 if W/L % .500 >)â€¦ *0-7 H when O/U line < 40 pts vs opp of SU lossâ€¦1-11 H vs opp off DD ATS loss

Kansas City SEPT: 8-1 A off non div gameâ€¦5-1 A Game Two

CHICAGO SERIES: 3-1 L4â€¦*7-0 vs non div opp off SUATS winâ€¦5-1 Game Twoâ€¦1-4 DD fav

San Diego 7-0 dogs 4 > pts vs . > 600 oppâ€¦6-2 Game Twoâ€¦6-34 when lose SU

NEW ENGLAND SERIES: 6-2 L8/4-1 L5 Hâ€¦13-2 vs .666 > opp off DD SU winâ€¦4-1 Game Twoâ€¦0-4 H when O/U line is 45 > ptsâ€¦*SEPT: 1-7 off SUATS win vs non div opp

Monday, Sep 17

Washington SERIES: Dog is 1-6â€¦ SU winner 9-0 Game Twoâ€¦ 10-2 dogs 4 > pts vs < .500 oppâ€¦9-2 A off SU win vs opp off SUATS lossâ€¦ 4-9 RDâ€™s on Mondays

PHILADELPHIA SU winner 15-1 Game Twoâ€¦SEPT: 11-2 off SUATS loss vs . 500 > oppâ€¦11-3 HFâ€™s on Mondays

posted by phantom

Sept. 12 2007 11:09pm
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Power Plays 4*'s

4* Illinois

4* Purdue

4* Virginia Tech

4* Iowa

4* Kansas

4* Oregon

4* Alabama

4* UTEP

4* BYU

4* FSU

4* Arizona State

posted by phantom

Sept. 12 2007 11:10pm
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Winning Points:

4* Army

3* Kansas

2* Illinois

2* Indiana

2* Vanderbilt

2* Wyoming

posted by phantom

Sept. 12 2007 11:10pm
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Sports Reporter:

Super Best Bet: Tennessee

Best Bet: Purdue

Best Bet: Southern Miss

Best Bet: USC

Best Bet: Florida Atlantic

posted by phantom

Sept. 12 2007 11:10pm
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RedSheet

89 - Kansas, Tennessee

88 - Mich. St., Indiana, Arizona St.

posted by phantom

Sept. 13 2007 4:34pm
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Sporting News War Room

Jacksonville will use this game to get back on track. The Jaguars will take control of the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball. Taylor and Jones-Drew will pound the Falcons, while Stroud, Henderson and Peterson will physically dominate the Falcons in the middle. Meanwhile, Garrard will make the big plays in the passing game to keep drives going, while Harrington, his quarterback counterpart, will be pressured into making several mistakes by Jacksonville's defense.

Pick: Jaguars 27, Falcons 6

The Giants are simply too beat up to handle the Packers; with three starters likely out, New York's depth will be stretched too thin to contain Favre and company. This game will not be a high-scoring affair because neither team has a dominant running game, but the Packers' defense and special teams will make the difference in this matchup.

Pick: Packers 24, Giants 17

The Bills have struggled to stop the run. That will force them to bring extra defenders into the box and leave them susceptible to the Steelers' new downfield passing attack. Buffalo also will struggle to run the ball effectively, leaving the game on the shoulders of Losman, who won't fare well in the face of the Steelers' blitz schemes.

Pick: Steelers 31, Bills 14

This will be a close game for two improving teams in the NFC West. The 49ers will rely heavily on the running game with Gore to try to keep the burden off Smith. The Rams' defense will prove to be too fast for the Niners and the Niners won't be able to account for all of the Rams' offensive options. Jackson will be much more effective this week, and home-field advantage is good enough to pick St. Louis.

Pick: Rams 28, 49ers 21

The Saints have the X-factor the Bucs do not have: Bush. He, along with McAllister, can keep Tampa Bay's defense off-balance all day. And with Brees operating the rest of the offense effectively, the Bucs will be in for a long day in front of their home fans.

Pick: Saints 24, Buccaneers 10

Houston will struggle to block the Panthers' front four. Schaub will get hit a lot this week and will not have much time to look to alternate receivers. The tough, scrappy Texans will fall just short.

Pick: Panthers 24, Texans 20

Simply put, the Titans lack the firepower to beat the Colts in a shootout. The Colts have too many weapons on offense and will put up a lot of points. Young lacks the playmakers around him to keep this game competitive.

Pick: Colts 30, Titans 13

Both teams' strengths were on display in their opening week wins: The Vikings' defense was dominant and the Lions' offense was rolling. So which club will step up on the other side of the ball? Look for the Detroit's defense to outplay Minnesota's offense. Despite Peterson's big debut running the football, Jackson did not show he's prepared to carry the load at quarterback just yet. The Lions also have a significant advantage on offense, and that will prove to be the difference.

Pick: Lions 20, Vikings 13

The Cowboys' offensive line will be able to protect Romo against the Dolphins' blitz package. When Romo has time to throw, the Cowboys' wide receivers will make big plays against Miami's secondary. And Romo figures to be able to find Witten often when under duress to sustain drives.

The Dolphins will have a tough time running inside the tackles, even without Ferguson there to clog the middle. Without a solid running game, the Dolphins' offense will falter.

Pick: Cowboys 24, Dolphins 13

The Chiefs need an effective running game to be successful. However, working against the Bears' defense, Johnson will have nowhere to run and Huard will be forced to win the game through the air. Once the Chiefs become one-dimensional, the Bears will tee off on Huard and force the takeaways needed to put away the game.

Pick: Bears 24, Chiefs 17

Denver has too many weapons to be shut down by Oakland's defense, which struggled last week and will struggle again this week. Denver will put eight in the box and make Culpepper challenge its elite cornerbacks. Oakland's offense will not generate much production and will give the ball away several times to the Denver defense. Cutler will have a decent day, but Henry will assure Denver's victory.

Pick: Broncos 27, Raiders 10

Baltimore is working on a short week after its Monday night road loss and has several key players injured, including team leaders McNair and Lewis, but the Jets will be playing with either a limited Pennington or an inexperienced Clemens. Expect the Ravens' defense to capitalize on New York's injury woes with a heavy dose of blitzes that should see this game decided by the third quarter.

Pick: Ravens 27, Jets 10

Since Jan. 14, New England built up its arsenal while San Diego stood pat. The Patriots' defense is aging and missing two key cogs in Seymour and Harrison, but the unit is deep enough to stay fresh throughout Sunday's game. New England now is better at scoring quickly and at controlling the ball with time-consuming drives. And Brady is sure to expose the Chargers' weak links in the secondary.

Pick: Patriots 28, Chargers 17

Westbrook and the Philly faithful will be the difference-makers in this game. The Redskins will again have success on offense and their defense will get after McNabb. But Washington doesn't have an answer for Westbrook, and his overall play -- with help from a noisy crowd -- will give the home team a much-needed NFC East victory.

Pick: Eagles 24, Redskins 23

posted by phantom

Sept. 13 2007 4:41pm
0 likes

NCAAF

Dunkel Index

Week 3

TCU at Air Force

The loss to Texas last week had to be a demoralizer for TCU, which came in with high hopes of upsetting its instate rival and led 10-0 at halftime. But Texas went on a 20-0 run to start the second half as the Horns poked major holes in the TCU's vaunted defense. Meanwhile the Horned Frog offense -- never their strong point -- was held to just 43 yards on the ground and never really challenged the Texas D. Now Gary Patterson's team has to try to shake off the 34-13 beating and come back on short rest to play a tricky game at Air Force on Thursday night. The Falcons are under first-year head coach Troy Calhoun, but they certainly have to remember last year's 38-14 whipping at TCU in Fisher DeBerry's final game. And Air Force comes into this game with some new confidence after winning at Utah last week (20-12) behind a running attack that outgained the Utes 334-73. Even with their struggles in recent years, the Falcons are 8-1 ATS in the last nine home conference games when they are an underdog greater than 2 points. They look like a good pick (+8 1/2) to build on that record in this one according to Dunkel, which has TCU favored by just 5. Dunkel Pick: Air Force (+8). Here are all of this week's picks.

THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 13

Game 101-102: West Virginia at Maryland

Dunkel Ratings: West Virginia 104.687; Maryland 93.364

Dunkel Line: West Virginia by 11; 60

Vegas Line: West Virginia by 16 1/2; 65

Dunkel Pick: Maryland (+16 1/2); Under

Game 103-104: TCU at Air Force

Dunkel Ratings: TCU 97.055; Air Force 92.386

Dunkel Line: TCU by 5; 36

Vegas Line: TCU by 8; 42

Dunkel Pick: Air Force (+8); Under

FRIDAY, SEPTEMBER 14

Game 105-106: Oklahoma State at Troy

Dunkel Ratings: Oklahoma State 90.490; Troy 84.847

Dunkel Line: Oklahoma State by 6; 61

Vegas Line: Oklahoma State by 10 1/2; 65

Dunkel Pick: Troy (+10 1/2); Under

SATURDAY, SEPTEMBER 15

Game 107-108: Illinois at Syracuse

Dunkel Ratings: Illinois 85.858; Syracuse 77.157

Dunkel Line: Illinois by 8 1/2; 49

Vegas Line: Illinois by 12 1/2; 43

Dunkel Pick: Syracuse (+12 1/2); Over

Game 109-110: Temple at Connecticut

Dunkel Ratings: Temple 58.580; Connecticut 92.719

Dunkel Line: Connecticut by 34; 47

Vegas Line: Connecticut by 29; 51 1/2

Dunkel Pick: Connecticut (-29); Under

Game 111-112: Virginia at North Carolina

Dunkel Ratings: Virginia 80.230; North Carolina 88.584

Dunkel Line: North Carolina by 8; 45

Vegas Line: North Carolina by 3; 42

Dunkel Pick: North Carolina (-3); Over

Game 113-114: Buffalo at Penn State

Dunkel Ratings: Buffalo 66.574; Penn State 107.180

Dunkel Line: Penn State by 41; 44

Vegas Line: Penn State by 34; 48 1/2

Dunkel Pick: Penn State (-34); Under

Game 115-116: Mississippi at Vanderbilt

Dunkel Ratings: Mississippi 82.202; Vanderbilt 88.740

Dunkel Line: Vanderbilt by 6 1/2; 51

Vegas Line: Vanderbilt by 5; 46

Dunkel Pick: Vanderbilt (-5); Over

Game 117-118: Mississippi State at Auburn

Dunkel Ratings: Mississippi State 78.800; Auburn 98.912

Dunkel Line: Auburn by 20; 44

Vegas Line: Auburn by 13; 41 1/2

Dunkel Pick: Auburn (-13); Over

Game 119-120: Central Michigan at Purdue

Dunkel Ratings: Central Michigan 78.759; Purdue 97.111

Dunkel Line: Purdue by 18 1/2; 71

Vegas Line: Purdue by 21; 66

Dunkel Pick: Central Michigan (+21); Over

Game 121-122: Cincinnati at Miami (OH)

Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati 94.419; Miami (OH) 79.362

Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 15; 46

Vegas Line: Cincinnati by 8; 48 1/2

Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (-8); Under

Game 123-124: Ohio at Virginia Tech

Dunkel Ratings: Ohio 76.104; Virginia Tech 105.106

Dunkel Line: Virginia Tech by 29; 45

Vegas Line: Virginia Tech by 21; 42 1/2

Dunkel Pick: Virginia Tech (-21); Over

Game 125-126: Iowa at Iowa State

Dunkel Ratings: Iowa 95.207; Iowa State 80.459

Dunkel Line: Iowa by 15; 33

Vegas Line: Iowa by 17 1/2; 39

Dunkel Pick: Iowa State (+17 1/2); Under

Game 127-128: Toledo at Kansas

Dunkel Ratings: Toledo 70.909; Kansas 101.744

Dunkel Line: Kansas by 31; 72

Vegas Line: Kansas by 21 1/2; 65

Dunkel Pick: Kansas (-21 1/2); Over

Game 129-130: Eastern Michigan at Northern Illinois

Dunkel Ratings: Eastern Michigan 64.739; Northern Illinois 84.795

Dunkel Line: Northern Illinois by 20; 44

Vegas Line: Northern Illinois by 14; 42 1/2

Dunkel Pick: Northern Illinois (-14); Over

Game 131-132: Army at Wake Forest

Dunkel Ratings: Army 64.618; Wake Forest 96.352

Dunkel Line: Wake Forest by 32; 38

Vegas Line: Wake Forest by 19 1/2; 42

Dunkel Pick: Wake Forest (-19 1/2); Under

Game 133-134: Tennessee at Florida

Dunkel Ratings: Tennessee 97.049; Florida 109.657

Dunkel Line: Florida by 12 1/2; 65

Vegas Line: Florida by 7 1/2; 57

Dunkel Pick: Florida (-7 1/2); Over

Game 135-136: Notre Dame at Michigan

Dunkel Ratings: Notre Dame 89.273; Michigan 94.274

Dunkel Line: Michigan by 5; 49

Vegas Line: Michigan by 8 1/2; 43 1/2

Dunkel Pick: Notre Dame (+8 1/2); Over

Game 137-138: Utah State at Oklahoma

Dunkel Ratings: Utah State 59.182; Oklahoma 117.398

Dunkel Line: Oklahoma by 58; 58

Vegas Line: Oklahoma by 45 1/2; 64

Dunkel Pick: Oklahoma (-45 1/2); Under

Game 139-140: Fresno State at Oregon

Dunkel Ratings: Fresno State 79.904; Oregon 112.571

Dunkel Line: Oregon by 33; 58

Vegas Line: Oregon by 16; 63 1/2

Dunkel Pick: Oregon (-16); Under

Game 141-142: Pittsburgh at Michigan State

Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh 90.286; Michigan State 94.175

Dunkel Line: Michigan State by 4; 47

Vegas Line: Michigan State by 11; 51

Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (+11); Under

Game 143-144: Ohio State at Washington

Dunkel Ratings: Ohio State 104.882; Washington 103.911

Dunkel Line: Ohio State by 1; 37

Vegas Line: Ohio State by 4 1/2; 41 1/2

Dunkel Pick: Washington (+4 1/2); Under

Game 145-146: Texas at Central Florida

Dunkel Ratings: Texas 96.119; Central Florida 82.002

Dunkel Line: Texas by 14; 46

Vegas Line: Texas by 19; 49

Dunkel Pick: Central Florida (+19); Under

Game 147-148: Louisiana Tech at California

Dunkel Ratings: Louisiana Tech 70.263; California 113.057

Dunkel Line: California by 43; 61

Vegas Line: California by 33 1/2; 67

Dunkel Pick: California (-33 1/2); Under

Game 149-150: UCLA at Utah

Dunkel Ratings: UCLA 99.069; Utah 87.168

Dunkel Line: UCLA by 12; 40

Vegas Line: UCLA by 14 1/2; 43 1/2

Dunkel Pick: Utah (+14 1/2); Under

Game 151-152: Ball State at Navy

Dunkel Ratings: Ball State 75.525; Navy 87.200

Dunkel Line: Navy by 12; 50

Vegas Line: Navy by 5 1/2; 54

Dunkel Pick: Navy (-5 1/2); Under

Game 153-154: Akron at Indiana

Dunkel Ratings: Akron 77.575; Indiana 85.767

Dunkel Line: Indiana by 8; 45

Vegas Line: Indiana by 13 1/2; 48 1/2

Dunkel Pick: Akron (+13 1/2); Under

Game 155-156: Southern Mississippi at East Carolina

Dunkel Ratings: Southern Mississippi 85.108; East Carolina 90.821

Dunkel Line: East Carolina by 5 1/2; 51

Vegas Line: Southern Mississippi by 1; 47 1/2

Dunkel Pick: East Carolina (+1); Over

Game 157-158: Western Michigan at Missouri

Dunkel Ratings: Western Michigan 76.940; Missouri 98.152

Dunkel Line: Missouri by 21; 72

Vegas Line: Missouri by 20 1/2; 68

Dunkel Pick: Missouri (-20 1/2); Over

Game 159-160: Idaho at Washington State

Dunkel Ratings: Idaho 67.400; Washington State 88.219

Dunkel Line: Washington State by 21; 50

Vegas Line: Washington State by 26; 55

Dunkel Pick: Idaho (+26); Under

Game 161-162: Houston at Tulane

Dunkel Ratings: Houston 88.275; Tulane 69.061

Dunkel Line: Houston by 19; 66

Vegas Line: Houston by 14 1/2; 64 1/2

Dunkel Pick: Houston (-14 1/2); Over

Game 163-164: Louisville at Kentucky

Dunkel Ratings: Louisville 104.142; Kentucky 100.403

Dunkel Line: Louisville by 4; 83

Vegas Line: Louisville by 7; 77

Dunkel Pick: Kentucky (+7); Over

Game 165-166: Arkansas at Alabama

Dunkel Ratings: Arkansas 100.976; Alabama 96.935

Dunkel Line: Arkansas by 4; 52

Vegas Line: Alabama by 3; 47

Dunkel Pick: Arkansas (+3); Over

Game 167-168: Boston College at Georgia Tech

Dunkel Ratings: Boston College 97.729; Georgia Tech 102.160

Dunkel Line: Georgia Tech by 4 1/2; 57

Vegas Line: Georgia Tech by 7; 48

Dunkel Pick: Boston College (+7); Over

Game 169-170: Duke at Northwestern

Dunkel Ratings: Duke 67.255; Northwestern 91.780

Dunkel Line: Northwestern by 24 1/2; 46

Vegas Line: Northwestern by 16; 52

Dunkel Pick: Northwestern (-16); Under

Game 171-172: Texas Tech at Rice

Dunkel Ratings: Texas Tech 101.799; Rice 70.603

Dunkel Line: Texas Tech by 31; 61

Vegas Line: Texas Tech by 27; 66

Dunkel Pick: Texas Tech (-27); Under

Game 173-174: USC at Nebraska

Dunkel Ratings: USC 109.104; Nebraska 108.172

Dunkel Line: USC by 1; 48

Vegas Line: USC by 10; 51

Dunkel Pick: Nebraska (+10); Under

Game 175-176: UTEP at New Mexico State

Dunkel Ratings: UTEP 83.352; New Mexico State 75.271

Dunkel Line: UTEP by 8; 62

Vegas Line: New Mexico State by 6 1/2; 64 1/2

Dunkel Pick: UTEP (+6 1/2); Under

Game 177-178: Wyoming at Boise State

Dunkel Ratings: Wyoming 84.884; Boise State 105.026

Dunkel Line: Boise State by 20; 46

Vegas Line: Boise State by 12 1/2; 49

Dunkel Pick: Boise State (-12 1/2); Under

Game 179-180: BYU at Tulsa

Dunkel Ratings: BYU 99.081; Tulsa 90.498

Dunkel Line: BYU by 8 1/2; 41

Vegas Line: BYU by 6 1/2; 49

Dunkel Pick: BYU (-6 1/2); Under

Game 181-182: Hawaii at UNLV

Dunkel Ratings: Hawaii 96.697; UNLV 77.200

Dunkel Line: Hawaii by 19; 61

Vegas Line: Hawaii by 16 1/2; 62 1/2

Dunkel Pick: Hawaii (-16 1/2); Under

Game 183-184: Florida State at Colorado

Dunkel Ratings: Florida State 91.894; Colorado 89.894

Dunkel Line: Florida State by 2; 51

Vegas Line: Florida State by 4 1/2; 48

Dunkel Pick: Colorado (+4 1/2); Over

Game 185-186: San Diego State at Arizona State

Dunkel Ratings: San Diego State 71.896; Arizona State 106.762

Dunkel Line: Arizona State by 35; 56

Vegas Line: Arizona State by 28; 59

Dunkel Pick: Arizona State (-28); Under

Game 187-188; New Mexico at Arizona

Dunkel Ratings: New Mexico 80.308; Arizona 93.746

Dunkel Line: Arizona by 13 1/2; 48

Vegas Line: Arizona by 10; 45 1/2

Dunkel Pick: Arizona (-10); Over

Game 189-190: San Jose State at Stanford

Dunkel Ratings: San Jose State 75.449; Stanford 77.839

Dunkel Line: Stanford by 2 1/2; 54

Vegas Line: Stanford by 7 1/2; 48

Dunkel Pick: San Jose State (+7 1/2); Over

Game 191-192: Florida International at Miami (FL)

Dunkel Ratings: Florida International 54.570; Miami (FL) 96.330

Dunkel Line: Miami (FL) by 42; 49

Vegas Line: Miami (FL) by 32 1/2; 47

Dunkel Pick: Miami (FL) (-32 1/2); Over

Game 193-194: UL Monroe at Texas A&M

Dunkel Ratings: UL Monroe 70.354; Texas A&M 98.347

Dunkel Line: Texas A&M by 28; 53

Vegas Line: Texas A&M by 23; 57 1/2

Dunkel Pick: Texas A&M (-23); Under

Game 195-196: SMU at Arkansas State

Dunkel Ratings: SMU 74.979; Arkansas State 76.319

Dunkel Line: Arkansas State by 1 1/2; 49

Vegas Line: Arkansas State by 3 1/2; 51 1/2

Dunkel Pick: SMU (+3 1/2); Under

Game 197-198: Minnesota at Florida Atlantic

Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 82.254; Florida Atlantic 80.663

Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 2; 47

Vegas Line: Minnesota by 7 1/2; 55

Dunkel Pick: Florida Atlantic (+7 1/2); Under

Game 199-200: Middle Tennessee State at LSU

Dunkel Ratings: Middle Tennessee State 75.399; LSU 118.506

Dunkel Line: LSU by 43; 63

Vegas Line: LSU by 40; 59 1/2

Dunkel Pick: LSU (-40); Over

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

posted by phantom

Sept. 13 2007 4:49pm
0 likes

NCAAF

Long Sheet

Week 3

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Thursday, September 13

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W VIRGINIA (2 - 0) at MARYLAND (2 - 0) - 9/13/2007, 7:45 PM

Top Trends for this game.

W VIRGINIA is 6-17 ATS (-12.7 Units) against ACC opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History

W VIRGINIA is 2-0 against the spread versus MARYLAND over the last 3 seasons

W VIRGINIA is 2-0 straight up against MARYLAND over the last 3 seasons

2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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TCU (1 - 1) at AIR FORCE (2 - 0) - 9/13/2007, 8:00 PM

Top Trends for this game.

TCU is 19-7 ATS (+11.3 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.

TCU is 17-7 ATS (+9.3 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.

TCU is 19-7 ATS (+11.3 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.

TCU is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.

AIR FORCE is 42-65 ATS (-29.5 Units) after playing a conference game since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History

TCU is 2-0 against the spread versus AIR FORCE over the last 3 seasons

TCU is 2-0 straight up against AIR FORCE over the last 3 seasons

2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Friday, September 14

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OKLAHOMA ST (1 - 1) at TROY (0 - 2) - 9/14/2007, 8:00 PM

There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History

There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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Saturday, September 15

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ILLINOIS (1 - 1) at SYRACUSE (0 - 2) - 9/15/2007, 12:00 PM

Top Trends for this game.

ILLINOIS is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) in dome games since 1992.

ILLINOIS is 42-72 ATS (-37.2 Units) in games played on turf since 1992.

SYRACUSE is 51-32 ATS (+15.8 Units) in home games when playing on a Saturday since 1992.

SYRACUSE is 41-22 ATS (+16.8 Units) in home games when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History

SYRACUSE is 1-0 against the spread versus ILLINOIS over the last 3 seasons

SYRACUSE is 1-0 straight up against ILLINOIS over the last 3 seasons

1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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TEMPLE (0 - 2) at CONNECTICUT (2 - 0) - 9/15/2007, 12:00 PM

Top Trends for this game.

TEMPLE is 15-34 ATS (-22.4 Units) in September games since 1992.

TEMPLE is 23-39 ATS (-19.9 Units) in non-conference games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History

There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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VIRGINIA (1 - 1) at N CAROLINA (1 - 1) - 9/15/2007, 12:00 PM

Top Trends for this game.

N CAROLINA is 8-19 ATS (-12.9 Units) in home games in September games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History

N CAROLINA is 1-1 against the spread versus VIRGINIA over the last 3 seasons

N CAROLINA is 1-1 straight up against VIRGINIA over the last 3 seasons

2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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BUFFALO (1 - 1) at PENN ST (2 - 0) - 9/15/2007, 12:00 PM

There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History

There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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OLE MISS (1 - 1) at VANDERBILT (1 - 1) - 9/15/2007, 7:00 PM

There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History

VANDERBILT is 1-1 against the spread versus OLE MISS over the last 3 seasons

VANDERBILT is 1-1 straight up against OLE MISS over the last 3 seasons

1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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MISSISSIPPI ST (1 - 1) at AUBURN (1 - 1) - 9/15/2007, 12:30 PM

There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History

AUBURN is 2-0 against the spread versus MISSISSIPPI ST over the last 3 seasons

AUBURN is 2-0 straight up against MISSISSIPPI ST over the last 3 seasons

2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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C MICHIGAN (1 - 1) at PURDUE (2 - 0) - 9/15/2007, 12:00 PM

Top Trends for this game.

C MICHIGAN is 13-3 ATS (+9.7 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.

C MICHIGAN is 10-1 ATS (+8.9 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.

C MICHIGAN is 13-3 ATS (+9.7 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History

There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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CINCINNATI (2 - 0) at MIAMI OHIO (1 - 1) - 9/15/2007, 12:00 PM

Top Trends for this game.

MIAMI OHIO is 39-23 ATS (+13.7 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History

MIAMI OHIO is 1-1 against the spread versus CINCINNATI over the last 3 seasons

MIAMI OHIO is 1-1 straight up against CINCINNATI over the last 3 seasons

1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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OHIO U (2 - 0) at VIRGINIA TECH (1 - 1) - 9/15/2007, 1:30 PM

Top Trends for this game.

VIRGINIA TECH is 78-55 ATS (+17.5 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.

VIRGINIA TECH is 33-18 ATS (+13.2 Units) in September games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History

VIRGINIA TECH is 1-0 against the spread versus OHIO U over the last 3 seasons

VIRGINIA TECH is 1-0 straight up against OHIO U over the last 3 seasons

1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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IOWA (2 - 0) at IOWA ST (0 - 2) - 9/15/2007, 1:30 PM

Top Trends for this game.

IOWA is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History

IOWA ST is 2-0 against the spread versus IOWA over the last 3 seasons

IOWA ST is 1-1 straight up against IOWA over the last 3 seasons

2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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TOLEDO (0 - 2) at KANSAS (2 - 0) - 9/15/2007, 7:00 PM

Top Trends for this game.

KANSAS is 48-77 ATS (-36.7 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History

TOLEDO is 1-0 against the spread versus KANSAS over the last 3 seasons

TOLEDO is 1-0 straight up against KANSAS over the last 3 seasons

1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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E MICHIGAN (0 - 2) at N ILLINOIS (0 - 2) - 9/15/2007, 12:00 PM

There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History

N ILLINOIS is 1-1 against the spread versus E MICHIGAN over the last 3 seasons

N ILLINOIS is 2-0 straight up against E MICHIGAN over the last 3 seasons

2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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ARMY (1 - 1) at WAKE FOREST (0 - 2) - 9/15/2007, 3:30 PM

Top Trends for this game.

WAKE FOREST is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.

WAKE FOREST is 12-25 ATS (-15.5 Units) as a favorite since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History

There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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TENNESSEE (1 - 1) at FLORIDA (2 - 0) - 9/15/2007, 3:30 PM

There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History

FLORIDA is 1-1 against the spread versus TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons

FLORIDA is 2-0 straight up against TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons

2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NOTRE DAME (0 - 2) at MICHIGAN (0 - 2) - 9/15/2007, 3:30 PM

Top Trends for this game.

NOTRE DAME is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.

MICHIGAN is 15-34 ATS (-22.4 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History

MICHIGAN is 1-1 against the spread versus NOTRE DAME over the last 3 seasons

MICHIGAN is 1-1 straight up against NOTRE DAME over the last 3 seasons

1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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UTAH ST (0 - 2) at OKLAHOMA (2 - 0) - 9/15/2007, 3:30 PM

Top Trends for this game.

OKLAHOMA is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) when playing on a Saturday over the last 2 seasons.

OKLAHOMA is 10-1 ATS (+8.9 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History

There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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FRESNO ST (1 - 1) at OREGON (2 - 0) - 9/15/2007, 7:00 PM

Top Trends for this game.

FRESNO ST is 2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.

FRESNO ST is 2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History

OREGON is 2-0 against the spread versus FRESNO ST over the last 3 seasons

OREGON is 2-0 straight up against FRESNO ST over the last 3 seasons

2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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PITTSBURGH (2 - 0) at MICHIGAN ST (2 - 0) - 9/15/2007, 12:00 PM

There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History

MICHIGAN ST is 1-0 against the spread versus PITTSBURGH over the last 3 seasons

MICHIGAN ST is 1-0 straight up against PITTSBURGH over the last 3 seasons

1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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OHIO ST (2 - 0) at WASHINGTON (2 - 0) - 9/15/2007, 3:30 PM

Top Trends for this game.

OHIO ST is 95-69 ATS (+19.1 Units) when playing on a Saturday since 1992.

OHIO ST is 12-2 ATS (+9.8 Units) in road games in September games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History

There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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TEXAS (2 - 0) at UCF (1 - 0) - 9/15/2007, 3:30 PM

Top Trends for this game.

TEXAS is 15-5 ATS (+9.5 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.

TEXAS is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History

There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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LOUISIANA TECH (1 - 1) at CALIFORNIA (2 - 0) - 9/15/2007, 6:30 PM

Top Trends for this game.

LOUISIANA TECH is 2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) in road games when playing on a Saturday over the last 3 seasons.

LOUISIANA TECH is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) in road games over the last 3 seasons.

LOUISIANA TECH is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) in road lined games over the last 3 seasons.

CALIFORNIA is 31-49 ATS (-22.9 Units) as a favorite since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History

There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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UCLA (2 - 0) at UTAH (0 - 2) - 9/15/2007, 5:00 PM

Top Trends for this game.

UCLA is 8-19 ATS (-12.9 Units) in road games after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins since 1992.

UTAH is 35-18 ATS (+15.2 Units) as an underdog since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History

UCLA is 1-0 against the spread versus UTAH over the last 3 seasons

UCLA is 1-0 straight up against UTAH over the last 3 seasons

1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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BALL ST (1 - 1) at NAVY (1 - 1) - 9/15/2007, 5:00 PM

Top Trends for this game.

NAVY is 93-62 ATS (+24.8 Units) in all games since 1992.

NAVY is 89-57 ATS (+26.3 Units) when playing on a Saturday since 1992.

NAVY is 93-62 ATS (+24.8 Units) in all lined games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History

There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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AKRON (1 - 1) at INDIANA (2 - 0) - 9/15/2007, 12:00 PM

There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History

There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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SOUTHERN MISS (1 - 1) at E CAROLINA (1 - 1) - 9/15/2007, 6:00 PM

Top Trends for this game.

E CAROLINA is 19-7 ATS (+11.3 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.

E CAROLINA is 19-7 ATS (+11.3 Units) when playing on a Saturday over the last 3 seasons.

E CAROLINA is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.

E CAROLINA is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.

E CAROLINA is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in September games over the last 3 seasons.

E CAROLINA is 19-7 ATS (+11.3 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History

E CAROLINA is 1-1 against the spread versus SOUTHERN MISS over the last 3 seasons

E CAROLINA is 1-1 straight up against SOUTHERN MISS over the last 3 seasons

2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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W MICHIGAN (0 - 2) at MISSOURI (2 - 0) - 9/15/2007, 2:00 PM

There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History

There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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IDAHO (1 - 1) at WASHINGTON ST (1 - 1) - 9/15/2007, 10:00 PM

There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History

WASHINGTON ST is 1-1 against the spread versus IDAHO over the last 3 seasons

WASHINGTON ST is 2-0 straight up against IDAHO over the last 3 seasons

2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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HOUSTON (0 - 1) at TULANE (0 - 1) - 9/15/2007, 7:00 PM

Top Trends for this game.

TULANE is 6-15 ATS (-10.5 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.

TULANE is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.

TULANE is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) in games played on turf over the last 3 seasons.

TULANE is 6-15 ATS (-10.5 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.

TULANE is 4-14 ATS (-11.4 Units) as an underdog over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History

HOUSTON is 2-0 against the spread versus TULANE over the last 3 seasons

HOUSTON is 2-0 straight up against TULANE over the last 3 seasons

1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

LOUISVILLE (2 - 0) at KENTUCKY (2 - 0) - 9/15/2007, 7:30 PM

There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History

KENTUCKY is 1-1 against the spread versus LOUISVILLE over the last 3 seasons

LOUISVILLE is 2-0 straight up against KENTUCKY over the last 3 seasons

1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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ARKANSAS (1 - 0) at ALABAMA (2 - 0) - 9/15/2007, 6:45 PM

Top Trends for this game.

ALABAMA is 20-38 ATS (-21.8 Units) in home games against conference opponents since 1992.

ALABAMA is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) in home games when playing on a Saturday over the last 3 seasons.

ALABAMA is 28-47 ATS (-23.7 Units) in home games when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.

ALABAMA is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) in home games in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.

ALABAMA is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.

ALABAMA is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) in home lined games over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History

ALABAMA is 1-1 against the spread versus ARKANSAS over the last 3 seasons

ALABAMA is 1-1 straight up against ARKANSAS over the last 3 seasons

1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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BOSTON COLLEGE (2 - 0) at GEORGIA TECH (2 - 0) - 9/15/2007, 8:00 PM

There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History

There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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DUKE (0 - 2) at NORTHWESTERN (2 - 0) - 9/15/2007, 8:00 PM

Top Trends for this game.

DUKE is 6-16 ATS (-11.6 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History

There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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TEXAS TECH (2 - 0) at RICE (0 - 2) - 9/15/2007, 3:00 PM

Top Trends for this game.

TEXAS TECH is 88-63 ATS (+18.7 Units) when playing on a Saturday since 1992.

TEXAS TECH is 67-44 ATS (+18.6 Units) in games played on turf since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History

There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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USC (1 - 0) at NEBRASKA (2 - 0) - 9/15/2007, 8:00 PM

Top Trends for this game.

NEBRASKA is 51-26 ATS (+22.4 Units) in home games when playing on a Saturday since 1992.

NEBRASKA is 39-21 ATS (+15.9 Units) in home games when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.

NEBRASKA is 56-33 ATS (+19.7 Units) in home games in games played on turf since 1992.

NEBRASKA is 35-18 ATS (+15.2 Units) in home games after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins since 1992.

NEBRASKA is 56-33 ATS (+19.7 Units) in home games since 1992.

NEBRASKA is 56-33 ATS (+19.7 Units) in home lined games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History

USC is 1-0 against the spread versus NEBRASKA over the last 3 seasons

USC is 1-0 straight up against NEBRASKA over the last 3 seasons

1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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UTEP (1 - 1) at NEW MEXICO ST (1 - 1) - 9/15/2007, 8:00 PM

Top Trends for this game.

UTEP is 8-20 ATS (-14.0 Units) as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points since 1992.

UTEP is 5-17 ATS (-13.7 Units) in road games in September games since 1992.

NEW MEXICO ST is 5-15 ATS (-11.5 Units) when playing on a Saturday over the last 3 seasons.

NEW MEXICO ST is 10-23 ATS (-15.3 Units) as a favorite since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History

NEW MEXICO ST is 1-1 against the spread versus UTEP over the last 3 seasons

UTEP is 2-0 straight up against NEW MEXICO ST over the last 3 seasons

1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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WYOMING (2 - 0) at BOISE ST (1 - 1) - 9/15/2007, 8:00 PM

Top Trends for this game.

BOISE ST is 65-38 ATS (+23.2 Units) in all games since 1992.

BOISE ST is 27-12 ATS (+13.8 Units) in home games when playing on a Saturday since 1992.

BOISE ST is 46-22 ATS (+21.8 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.

BOISE ST is 41-23 ATS (+15.7 Units) in games played on turf since 1992.

BOISE ST is 65-38 ATS (+23.2 Units) in all lined games since 1992.

BOISE ST is 49-29 ATS (+17.1 Units) as a favorite since 1992.

BOISE ST is 36-14 ATS (+20.6 Units) in home games since 1992.

BOISE ST is 36-14 ATS (+20.6 Units) in home lined games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History

WYOMING is 1-0 against the spread versus BOISE ST over the last 3 seasons

BOISE ST is 1-0 straight up against WYOMING over the last 3 seasons

1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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BYU (1 - 1) at TULSA (1 - 0) - 9/15/2007, 9:00 PM

Top Trends for this game.

BYU is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History

BYU is 1-0 against the spread versus TULSA over the last 3 seasons

BYU is 1-0 straight up against TULSA over the last 3 seasons

1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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HAWAII (2 - 0) at UNLV (1 - 1) - 9/15/2007, 9:30 PM

Top Trends for this game.

HAWAII is 14-28 ATS (-16.8 Units) in road games after playing a conference game since 1992.

UNLV is 37-57 ATS (-25.7 Units) when playing on a Saturday since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History

HAWAII is 1-0 against the spread versus UNLV over the last 3 seasons

HAWAII is 1-0 straight up against UNLV over the last 3 seasons

1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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FLORIDA ST (1 - 1) at COLORADO (1 - 1) - 9/15/2007, 10:00 PM

Top Trends for this game.

FLORIDA ST is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History

There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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SAN DIEGO ST (0 - 1) at ARIZONA ST (2 - 0) - 9/15/2007, 10:00 PM

Top Trends for this game.

ARIZONA ST is 16-6 ATS (+9.4 Units) in home games after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History

There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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NEW MEXICO (1 - 1) at ARIZONA (1 - 1) - 9/15/2007, 10:00 PM

Top Trends for this game.

ARIZONA is 8-19 ATS (-12.9 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points since 1992.

ARIZONA is 28-49 ATS (-25.9 Units) in home games when playing on a Saturday since 1992.

ARIZONA is 46-71 ATS (-32.1 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.

ARIZONA is 29-54 ATS (-30.4 Units) in home games in games played on a grass field since 1992.

ARIZONA is 23-49 ATS (-30.9 Units) as a favorite since 1992.

ARIZONA is 29-54 ATS (-30.4 Units) in home games since 1992.

ARIZONA is 29-54 ATS (-30.4 Units) in home lined games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History

There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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SAN JOSE ST (0 - 2) at STANFORD (0 - 1) - 9/15/2007, 10:00 PM

Top Trends for this game.

STANFORD is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in home games when playing on a Saturday over the last 2 seasons.

STANFORD is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.

STANFORD is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in September games over the last 2 seasons.

STANFORD is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.

STANFORD is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in home lined games over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History

SAN JOSE ST is 1-0 against the spread versus STANFORD over the last 3 seasons

SAN JOSE ST is 1-0 straight up against STANFORD over the last 3 seasons

1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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FLA INTERNATIONAL (0 - 2) at MIAMI (1 - 1) - 9/15/2007, 3:30 PM

Top Trends for this game.

FLA INTERNATIONAL is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) after 2 or more consecutive straight up losses over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History

MIAMI is 1-0 against the spread versus FLA INTERNATIONAL over the last 3 seasons

MIAMI is 1-0 straight up against FLA INTERNATIONAL over the last 3 seasons

1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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LA MONROE (0 - 2) at TEXAS A&M (2 - 0) - 9/15/2007, 7:00 PM

Top Trends for this game.

LA MONROE is 6-18 ATS (-13.8 Units) as a road underdog of 21.5 or more points since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History

There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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SMU (1 - 1) at ARKANSAS ST (0 - 1) - 9/15/2007, 7:00 PM

There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History

SMU is 1-0 against the spread versus ARKANSAS ST over the last 3 seasons

SMU is 1-0 straight up against ARKANSAS ST over the last 3 seasons

1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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MINNESOTA (1 - 1) at FLA ATLANTIC (1 - 1) - 9/15/2007, 1:00 PM

Top Trends for this game.

FLA ATLANTIC is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in non-conference games over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History

MINNESOTA is 1-0 against the spread versus FLA ATLANTIC over the last 3 seasons

MINNESOTA is 1-0 straight up against FLA ATLANTIC over the last 3 seasons

0 of 0 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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MIDDLE TENN ST (0 - 2) at LSU (2 - 0) - 9/15/2007, 8:00 PM

Top Trends for this game.

LSU is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History

There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

posted by phantom

Sept. 13 2007 4:49pm
0 likes

NCAAF

Short Sheet

Week 3

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Thursday, September 13th

West Virginia at Maryland, 7:45 ET ESPN

West Virginia: 8-2 Over off a road game

Maryland: 1-7 ATS in September

TCU at Air Force, 8:00 ET CSTV

TCU: 10-2 ATS as a favorite

Air Force: 2-14 ATS at home after scoring 3 or less first-half points

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Friday, September 14th

Added Game:

Oklahoma State at Troy, 8:00 ET ESPN2

Oklahoma State: 10-3 ATS off a win by 35+ points

Troy: 1-6 ATS off a loss by 17+ points

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Saturday, September 15th

Illinois at Syracuse, 12:00 ET

Illinois: 1-9 ATS in dome stadiums

Syracuse: 9-0 Under off a road loss

Temple at Connecticut, 12:00 ET

Temple: 1-6 ATS off a loss as a favorite

Connecticut: 5-1 ATS after allowing 6 points or less

Virginia at North Carolina, 12:00 ET

Virginia: 13-3 Under vs. conference opponents

North Carolina: 8-19 ATS at home in September

Buffalo at Penn State, 12:00 ET

Buffalo: 9-0 Under vs. non-conference opponents

Penn State: 5-1 ATS off BB ATS wins

Mississippi at Vanderbilt, 12:30 ET

Mississippi: 9-2 Under after forcing 1 or 0 turnovers

Vanderbilt: 6-16 ATS as a home favorite

Mississippi State at Auburn, 12:30 ET

Mississippi State: 6-2 ATS off BB Overs

Auburn: 6-1 Over off BB home games

Central Michigan at Purdue, 1:00 ET

Central Michigan: 9-0 ATS off an Over

Purdue: 1-7 ATS as a home favorite

Cincinnati at Miami OH, 1:00 ET

Cincinnati: 10-2 ATS after forcing 5+ turnovers

Miami OH: 8-2 Under off an Over

Ohio U at Virginia Tech, 1:30 EST

Ohio U: 3-10 ATS off BB non-conference games

Virginia Tech: 21-6 ATS off BB non-conference games

Iowa at Iowa State, 1:30 ET

Iowa: 1-8 ATS off a home win

Iowa State: 8-1 Under after forcing 1 or 0 turnovers

Toledo at Kansas, 2:00 EST

Toledo: 5-1 ATS off BB games with combined scores of 70+ points

Kansas: 8-19 ATS after committing 0 turnovers

Eastern Michigan at Northern Illinois, 2:00 ET

Eastern Michigan: 14-4 Under playing on artificial turf

Northern Illinois: 12-4 ATS off BB losses

Army at Wake Forest, 3:30 ET

Army: 7-12 ATS vs. non-conference opponents

Wake Forest: 8-1 ATS after forcing 3+ turnovers

Tennessee at Florida, 3:30 ET

Tennessee: 1-6 ATS after forcing 3+ turnovers

Florida: 10-3 Under in home games

Notre Dame at Michigan, 3:30 ET

Notre Dame: 2-10 ATS vs. non-conference opponents

Michigan: 14-7 Under as a favorite

Utah State at Oklahoma, 3:30 ET

Utah State: 0-6 ATS after scoring 3 or less first-half points

Oklahoma: 12-1 Over off BB non-conference games

Fresno State at Oregon, 3:30 ET

Fresno State: 0-8 ATS off a loss

Oregon: 18-6 ATS off BB non-conference games

Pittsburgh at Michigan State, 3:30 ET

Pittsburgh: 3-14 ATS away off BB home games

Michigan State: 8-2 Over off a SU win / ATS loss

Ohio State at Washington, 3:30 ET

Ohio State: 12-2 ATS away in September

Washington: 6-17 ATS after forcing 4+ turnovers

Texas at Central Florida, 3:30 ET

Texas: 14-5 ATS off BB wins

Central Florida: 10-1 Under in September

Louisiana Tech at California, 5:00 ET

Louisiana Tech: 0-7 ATS off an Over

California: 6-1 Under off a combined score of 60+ points

UCLA at Utah, 5:00 ET

UCLA: 0-7 ATS away off BB ATS wins as a favorite

Utah: 35-18 ATS as an underdog

Ball State at Navy, 5:00 ET

Ball State: 8-2 Under off a win

Navy: 10-2 ATS off BB road games

Akron at Indiana, 6:00 ET

Akron: 6-1 Under off a loss by 17+ points

Indiana: 1-8 ATS off BB games scoring 31+ points

Southern Miss at East Carolina, 6:00 ET

Southern Miss: 24-8 Under off a road game

East Carolina: 8-1 ATS in September

Western Michigan at Missouri, 7:00 ET

Western Michigan: 5-1 ATS as a road underdog of 14.5 to 21 points

Missouri: 7-3 Over vs. non-conference opponents

Idaho at Washington State, 7:00 ET

Idaho: 6-1 ATS after forcing 3+ turnovers

Washington State: 1-6 ATS as a home favorite

Houston at Tulane, 7:00 ET

Houston: 6-1 Over off a non-conference game

Tulane: 2-10 ATS playing on artificial turf

Louisville at Kentucky, 7:30 ET

Louisville: 20-8 ATS after forcing 4+ turnovers

Kentucky: 8-1 Over after committing 0 turnovers

Arkansas at Alabama, 7:45 ET

Arkansas: 12-2 ATS off a combined score of 70+ points

Alabama: 2-10 ATS as a home favorite

Boston College at Georgia Tech, 8:00 ET

Boston College: 14-5 Over off a home conference win

Georgia Tech: 2-9 ATS off an ATS win

Duke at Northwestern, 8:00 ET

Duke: 1-7 ATS off an Under

Northwestern: 6-0 ATS after allowing 325+ passing yards

Texas Tech at Rice, 8:00 ET

Texas Tech: 1-8 ATS off a home win

Rice: 27-9 ATS as a home underdog

USC at Nebraska, 8:00 ET

USC: 6-0 Over as a road favorite of 7.5 to 10 points

Nebraska: 32-13 ATS off a road win

UTEP at New Mexico State, 8:00 ET

UTEP: 6-0 Under after allowing 475+ total yards

New Mexico State: 0-6 ATS after allowing 42+ points

Wyoming at Boise State, 8:00 ET

Wyoming: 1-9 ATS off BB home wins

Boise State: 32-11 ATS as a home favorite

BYU at Tulsa, 9:00 ET

BYU: 18-5 Under off BB Unders

Tulsa: 6-0 ATS off a non-conference game

Hawaii at UNLV, 9:30 ET

Hawaii: 6-0 ATS after forcing 0 turnovers

UNLV: 10-23 ATS off an Under

Florida State at Colorado, 10:00 ET

Florida State: 24-9 ATS off BB ATS losses

Colorado: 5-16 ATS at home off an Under

San Diego State at Arizona State, 10:00 ET

San Diego State: 0-6 ATS in the first half of the season

Arizona State: 16-6 ATS at home off BB wins

New Mexico at Arizona, 10:00 ET

New Mexico: 6-1 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points

Arizona: 14-33 ATS as a home favorite

San Jose State at Stanford, 10:00 ET

San Jose State: 6-0 ATS off a road game

Stanford: 0-6 ATS in home games

Added Games:

Florida International at Miami FL, 3:30 ET

Florida Int: 1-8 ATS off BB losses

Miami FL: 8-2 Under vs. non-conference opponents

Louisiana Monroe at Texas A&M, 7:00 ET

LA Monroe: 6-18 ATS as a road underdog of 21.5+ points

Texas A&M: 6-1 Over off a home win

SMU at Arkansas State, 7:00 ET

SMU: 7-1 Over off a home win

Arkansas State: 3-7 ATS off an Under

Minnesota at Florida Atlantic, 7:00 ET

Minnesota: 27-13 ATS after forcing 3+ turnovers

Florida Atl: 1-8 ATS vs. non-conference opponents

Middle Tennessee State at LSU, 8:00 ET

Mid Tenn State: 7-1 Under off a road loss

LSU: 6-0 ATS vs. non-conference opponents

posted by phantom

Sept. 13 2007 4:50pm
0 likes

NCAAF

Write-up

----------------------------------------------------------------------

Thursday's college football info

West Virginia trailed 13-6 at half last week at Marshall, then won 48-23; they have 678 rushing yards in two games, also ran ball for 340 yards in LY's 45-24 home win vs Maryland (-17). Terps won at FIU last week, 26-10 (-24). WVa is 12-3-1 vs spread in last 16 tries as road favorite. Maryland is 4-3 as home dog since '01. WV star RB Slaton wanted to go to Maryland, wasn't offered a scholarship. Whoops.

TCU led Texas 10-0 at half last week, got drilled in second half, now has quick turnaround vs Air Force club that won 20-12 at Utah, as 8-point dog last week. Frogs led 38-0 against Flyboys last year, are 10-5-1 vs spread in last sixteen tries as a favorite. TCU had just 43 rushing yards last week; their only TD came on defense. Air Force covered just one of last six as a home dog. Tough to lay points on road with a freshman QB.

Friday's college football info

Troy just played Arkansas, Florida last two weeks, now open at home vs Oklahoma State club that whacked Florida Atlantic of Sun Belt 42-6 LW (-23) but benched starting QB Reid during the game. Cowboys covered seven of last nine as road fave; they're opening Big 12 schedule vs Texas Tech next week, so letdown a possibility, but ESPN's cameras probably prevent complacency. Trojans are 3-2 as home dog, beat Missouri here back in '03.

posted by phantom

Sept. 13 2007 4:50pm
0 likes

NCAAF

Gameday

Thursday, September 13

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NCAAF Gameday

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Week 3 of the college football season gets started on Thursday night with a pair of predicted blowouts that could be worth a look from bettors. In the early game, No. 4 West Virginia rumbles into Maryland, while TCU looks to get back into the Top 25 when they face Air Force.

West Virginia (4) at Maryland

The Mountaineers didnâ€™t start out very well in their game against Marshall last week, but they picked it up in the second half to put together a 48-23 victory as a 26-point favorite. West Virginia actually trailed 13-6 at half time last week, but exploded for 42 points in the second half, which included outscoring the Thundering Herd 21-0 in the final quarter. Steve Slaton put up his usual impressive numbers with 24 carries for 146 yards and three touchdowns. Versatile quarterback Pat White tore up the Marshall defense both through the air and on the ground, passing for 149 yards with two touchdowns and rushing for 125 yards and a touchdown on 18 carries.

The Terrapins started the season 2-0 after sneaking past Florida International 26-10 last week as a 23-point favorite. The Terrapinsâ€™ offense was sluggish throughout the game, but luckily their defense was there to bail them out. The defense picked up a safety early in the first quarter and held the Golden Panthers to 163 yards of offense, including making an important defensive stand in the fourth quarter. Maryland quarterback Jordan Steffy had a lackluster game, completing 18-of-25 passes for 135 yards with no touchdowns while being sacked four times. Running back Keon Lattimore provided the bulk of the offense with 111 yards and two touchdowns on 17 carries.

Last season the Mountaineers hosted the Terrapins and easily defeated Maryland 45-24 as a 17-point favorite. West Virginia has won the last three meetings between the two schools and is a 17.5-point favorite in Thursday nightâ€™s contest.

TCU at Air Force

The TCU Horned Frogs had high hopes heading into their game against Texas last week, but came away disappointed after a 34-13 loss as a 7.5-point underdog. The loss cost the Frogs their spot in the Top 25 rankings, as they fell out after being ranked at No. 19 last week. TCU started the game well enough with an early field goal and a Torrey Stewart interception of Texas QB Colt McCoy that he ran back for a touchdown. That gave TCU an early 10-0 lead, but it was all downhill after that. The TCU offense was stalled by the Longhorns all game long, as QB Andy Dutton completed 23-of-37 passes for 208 yards with no touchdowns and an interception. The Frogsâ€™ ground game didnâ€™t fare any better, as Ryan Christian led the team with 10 carries for 41 yards. The Frogsâ€™ defense, which was coming off a 27-0 shutout of Baylor, was burned for 415 yards by the more powerful Longhorns.

Air Force remained undefeated on the season after knocking off Utah 20-12 as a 7-point favorite last week. The Falconsâ€™ passing game was practically non-existent in the game, with QB Shaun Carney completing only 8-of-14 passes for 56 yards. The Air Force running game made up for the lack of a passing attack, with 334 yards on 63 carries between seven backs. Carney led the team with 113 yards on 16 carries, while Savier Stevens and Jim Ollis each had a TD run. The Air Force defense came up huge in the fourth quarter with two goal line stops with the Utesâ€™ charging.

The Frogs stomped the Falcons last season 38-14 as a 17.5-point favorite. The Frogs are a 10-point favorite in the rematch.

posted by phantom

Sept. 13 2007 4:50pm
0 likes

NCAAF

Saturday, September 15

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Tips and Trends

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Ohio University at #18 Virginia Tech (1:30 PM ET)

Virginia Tech will start true freshman Tyrod Taylor at QB for the first time after Sean Glennon was pulled out of the team's 48-7 loss at LSU due to poor play. Taylor was the top high school combo QB in the country last year and has been compared to the Vick brothers. He is expected to give the team a boost at home after two weak offensive efforts to start the season. EDGE: VIRGINIA TECH

Ohio RB Kalvin McRae is one of the MAC's top backs and is tied for the national lead in touchdowns with five through the first two games. "Blocking, running, receiving - I have a lot of respect for what he does," Ohio head coach Frank Solich said. SLIGHT EDGE: OHIO

Virginia Tech is 8-1 ATS in its last 9 games vs. MAC opponents.

Virginia Tech is 5-1 in its last 6 after a SU loss.

Ohio is 7-15-1 ATS in its last 23 road games.

The UNDER is 7-2 in Ohio's last 9 road games.

#22 Tennessee at #5 Florida (CBS | 3:30 PM ET)

This series recently has been dictated by the running game, as the team with the most rushing yardage has won 15 of the last 17 meetings. Over the last five games in this series in Gainesville, Tennessee has averaged 117.4 rushing yards per game and Florida has averaged 78.8. EDGE: TENNESSEE

Under head coach Phillip Fulmer, Tennessee owns an 8-7 mark in SEC openers, including wins in two of the last four conference openers. Of those eight victories, three have come against Florida. SLIGHT EDGE: TENNESSEE

Florida coach Urban Meyer looks to open the season 3-0 for the sixth time in his seven-year career. Florida is looking to do so for the third time since 2001 and the sixth time in the last 11 years. EDGE; FLORIDA

Meyer owns an 11-3 overall record against ranked opponents and is 8-3 against the ranked teams he has faced while in Gainesville. EDGE: FLORIDA

This game will mark the 27th time in the history of the series Florida has faced a ranked Tennessee squad. The Gators are 16-10 all-time in those contests and 14-6 when Florida and Tennessee are both ranked. EDGE: FLORIDA

Notre Dame at Michigan (ABC | 3:30 PM ET)

Michigan holds a 19-14-1 lead in the series and took last yearâ€™s meeting, 47-21, in Notre Dame Stadium. Notre Dame is 7-10 against the Wolverines in Ann Arbor. SLIGHT EDGE: MICHIGAN

Michigan is one of only two schools that own a winning record against Notre Dame (based on a minimum of five all-time meetings). Florida State is the other program. EDGE: MICHIGAN

The average margin of victory has been just four points over the span of the all-time series. Take away the 2004 and 2006 meetings and the average margin of victory is 2.3. BIG EDGE: NOTRE DAME

Under head coach Lloyd Carr, the Wolverines have outscored opponents by a 1,518-817 differential in September. Michigan has a 137-36-3 all-time record during the ninth month of year. EDGE: MICHIGAN

#10 Ohio State at Washington (ESPN | 3:30 PM ET)

Ohio State held their first two opponents to a combined eight points marking the lowest total point total allowed through two games since 1996. That season, Ohio State beat Rice 70-7 and Pitt 72-0 in the first two games of the season. EDGE: OHIO STATE

The Buckeyes are 7-3 all-time against Washington in a series that began in 1957. Ohio State is 2-3 in five games played at Husky Stadium. The last meeting was a 28-9 Buckeye win in Columbus in 2003. SLIGHT EDGE: OHIO STATE

Ohio State has won 20-consecutive regular-season games, dating back to a 17-10 loss at Penn State on October 8, 2005. The Buckeyes record is 21-consecutive regular-season wins from 1967-69. EDGE: OHIO STATE

Washington has scored in each of its eight trips into the red zone. The Huskies scored five touchdowns in five trips at Syracuse and then got two touchdowns and a field goal in three trips versus Boise State. EDGE: WASHINGTON

The Huskies have gone unbeaten at home 13 times in its history, including six times in the last 18 seasons. Washington has gone 126-39-2 at home since 1980. EDGE: WASHINGTON

#9 Louisville at Kentucky (ESPN CLASSIC | 7:30 PM ET)

After opening the season with a pair of home wins, the Cardinals will hit the road for the first time this season and for the first time under head coach Steve Kragthorpe. Louisville has been one of the best teams in the nation away from home the last couple of years, posting a 19-8 record since 2003. EDGE: LOUISVILLE

The Cardinals have won the last four meetings and seven of the last eight against the Wildcats. Louisville has also won the last four meetings in Lexington and havenâ€™t lost there since 1997. EDGE: LOUISVILLE

Louisville has averaged 39.5 points per game and 469.5 yards of total offense in their last four wins against the Wildcats. Louisville is also averaging 268.3 yards on the ground. EDGE: LOUISVILLE

Including last season, Kentucky has won seven of its last eight games. That is the best eight-game stretch since the 1977 team won its last nine games of the season. They have won five in a row at Commonwealth Stadium, the first time that has happened since a seven-game home win streak in 1986-87. EDGE: KENTUCKY

The Wildcats are 47-29-5 versus members in the current alignment of the Big East Conference. EDGE: KENTUCKY

#21 Boston College at #15 Georgia Tech (ESPN2 | 8 PM ET)

Since the beginning of the 2003 season, the Eagles are 18-8 on the road, the eight-best road record in college football in that time span. Since the 2002 season, Boston College is 5-3 against ranked teams on the road. EDGE: BOSTON COLLEGE

Boston College leads the nation in interceptions, having snagged nine in the first two games of the season. Cornerback DeJuan Tribble was named national defense player of the week after grabbing three in the season opener versus Wake Forest. EDGE; BOSTON COLLEGE

Georgia Tech has outscored opponents by a combined 85 points â€“ its largest margin through two games since 1936. The Yellow Jackets have also outscored opponents 61-0 in the first half. EDGE: GTECH â€“ FIRST HALF

The good news for Georgia Tech is that it has not lost an ACC opener since 2003. The bad news is that the Yellow Jackets are just 11-13 in ACC openers overall. SLIGHT EDGE: GTECH

#1 USC at #14 Nebraska (ABC | 8 PM EST)

USC has a 155-37-8 all-time record while playing in the month of September and 22-11-1 in its last 34 games on artificial turf. EDGE: USC

The Trojans are 28-9-2 against teams from the Big 12 Conference. USC has won nine of the last 12 meetings, most recently defeating Nebraska last season, 28-10. Nebraska has won five of its last seven games against Pac-10 foes. SLIGHT EDGE: USC

Ten defensive starters returned from the 2006 team for USC, including eight of their top nine tacklers. They ranked in the top 25 nationally in rushing defense, scoring defense and total defense. EDGE: USC

The last AP No. 1-ranked team to visit Lincoln was Oklahoma in 1978 and the No. 4 Cornhuskers posted a 17-14 upset over the Sooners. SLIGHT EDGE: NEBRASKA

Nebraska has had success against top-five teams at Memorial Stadium in recent years. The Huskersâ€™ 22-20 loss to No. 5 Texas at Memorial Stadium last season ended a four-game winning streak against top-five foes in Lincoln. Prior to the two-point setback against Texas, Nebraska had not lost a home game against a top-five team since a 36-21 setback to No. 4 Washington in 1991. BIG EDGE: NEBRASKA

posted by phantom

Sept. 13 2007 4:51pm
0 likes

NFL

Long Sheet

Week 2

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Sunday, September 16

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BUFFALO (0 - 1) at PITTSBURGH (1 - 0) - 9/16/2007, 1:00 PM

Top Trends for this game.

PITTSBURGH is 66-41 ATS (+20.9 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History

There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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CINCINNATI (1 - 0) at CLEVELAND (0 - 1) - 9/16/2007, 1:00 PM

There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History

CINCINNATI is 3-1 against the spread versus CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons

CINCINNATI is 4-0 straight up against CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons

3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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INDIANAPOLIS (1 - 0) at TENNESSEE (1 - 0) - 9/16/2007, 1:00 PM

Top Trends for this game.

TENNESSEE is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History

TENNESSEE is 2-2 against the spread versus INDIANAPOLIS over the last 3 seasons

INDIANAPOLIS is 3-1 straight up against TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons

4 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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HOUSTON (1 - 0) at CAROLINA (1 - 0) - 9/16/2007, 1:00 PM

There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History

There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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SAN FRANCISCO (1 - 0) at ST LOUIS (0 - 1) - 9/16/2007, 1:00 PM

There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History

SAN FRANCISCO is 4-0 against the spread versus ST LOUIS over the last 3 seasons

SAN FRANCISCO is 3-1 straight up against ST LOUIS over the last 3 seasons

2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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GREEN BAY (1 - 0) at NY GIANTS (0 - 1) - 9/16/2007, 1:00 PM

Top Trends for this game.

GREEN BAY is 39-23 ATS (+13.7 Units) in road games in games played on a grass field since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History

There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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ATLANTA (0 - 1) at JACKSONVILLE (0 - 1) - 9/16/2007, 1:00 PM

Top Trends for this game.

JACKSONVILLE is 17-6 ATS (+10.4 Units) in home games in non-conference games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History

There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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NEW ORLEANS (0 - 1) at TAMPA BAY (0 - 1) - 9/16/2007, 1:00 PM

There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History

TAMPA BAY is 3-1 against the spread versus NEW ORLEANS over the last 3 seasons

TAMPA BAY is 2-2 straight up against NEW ORLEANS over the last 3 seasons

3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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MINNESOTA (1 - 0) at DETROIT (1 - 0) - 9/16/2007, 4:05 PM

Top Trends for this game.

DETROIT is 31-49 ATS (-22.9 Units) as a favorite since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History

MINNESOTA is 4-0 against the spread versus DETROIT over the last 3 seasons

MINNESOTA is 4-0 straight up against DETROIT over the last 3 seasons

3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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DALLAS (1 - 0) at MIAMI (0 - 1) - 9/16/2007, 4:05 PM

There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History

There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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SEATTLE (1 - 0) at ARIZONA (0 - 1) - 9/16/2007, 4:05 PM

There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History

SEATTLE is 3-1 against the spread versus ARIZONA over the last 3 seasons

SEATTLE is 3-1 straight up against ARIZONA over the last 3 seasons

3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NY JETS (0 - 1) at BALTIMORE (0 - 1) - 9/16/2007, 4:15 PM

There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History

BALTIMORE is 1-0 against the spread versus NY JETS over the last 3 seasons

BALTIMORE is 1-0 straight up against NY JETS over the last 3 seasons

1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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OAKLAND (0 - 1) at DENVER (1 - 0) - 9/16/2007, 4:15 PM

Top Trends for this game.

OAKLAND is 11-22 ATS (-13.2 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.

OAKLAND is 7-17 ATS (-11.7 Units) against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.

OAKLAND is 11-22 ATS (-13.2 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.

DENVER is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in home games when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.

DENVER is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) versus division opponents over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History

DENVER is 2-2 against the spread versus OAKLAND over the last 3 seasons

DENVER is 4-0 straight up against OAKLAND over the last 3 seasons

3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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KANSAS CITY (0 - 1) at CHICAGO (0 - 1) - 9/16/2007, 4:15 PM

Top Trends for this game.

CHICAGO is 13-3 ATS (+9.7 Units) against AFC West division opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History

There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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SAN DIEGO (1 - 0) at NEW ENGLAND (1 - 0) - 9/16/2007, 8:15 PM

Top Trends for this game.

SAN DIEGO is 34-15 ATS (+17.5 Units) in games played on turf since 1992.

NEW ENGLAND is 2-12 ATS (-11.2 Units) in a home game where the total is between 45.5 and 49 points since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History

NEW ENGLAND is 1-1 against the spread versus SAN DIEGO over the last 3 seasons

NEW ENGLAND is 1-1 straight up against SAN DIEGO over the last 3 seasons

1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Monday, September 17

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WASHINGTON (1 - 0) at PHILADELPHIA (0 - 1) - 9/17/2007, 8:30 PM

Top Trends for this game.

WASHINGTON is 42-65 ATS (-29.5 Units) versus division opponents since 1992.

PHILADELPHIA is 113-78 ATS (+27.2 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.

WASHINGTON is 25-10 ATS (+14.0 Units) as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History

WASHINGTON is 2-1 against the spread versus PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons

PHILADELPHIA is 2-2 straight up against WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons

3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

posted by phantom

Sept. 13 2007 4:51pm
0 likes

NFL

Short Sheet

Week 2

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Sunday, September 16th

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Buffalo at Pittsburgh, 1:00 ET

Buffalo: 7-3 ATS off a loss by 6 points or less

Pittsburgh: 14-1 Over as a home favorite

Cincinnati at Cleveland, 1:00 ET

Cincinnati: 8-4 Under vs. Cleveland

Cleveland: 5-1 ATS off a loss by 14+ points

Indianapolis at Tennessee, 1:00 ET

Indianapolis: 6-1 Under in September

Tennessee: 11-3 ATS as an underdog

Houston at Carolina, 1:00 ET

Houston: 2-11 ATS off a home win

Carolina: 17-6 Under first two weeks of the season

San Francisco at St. Louis, 1:00 ET

San Francisco: 20-8 ATS vs. St. Louis

St. Louis: 5-1 Over off a loss as a home favorite

Green Bay at NY Giants, 1:00 ET

Green Bay: 1-5 ATS off a home win

NY Giants: 10-2 ATS after scoring 35+ points

Atlanta at Jacksonville, 1:00 ET

Atlanta: 8-1 Under in road games

Jacksonville: 17-6 ATS at home vs. non-conference opponents

New Orleans at Tampa Bay, 1:00 ET

New Orleans: 3-7 ATS off a combined score of 50+ points

Tampa Bay: 6-1 Under in September

Minnesota at Detroit, 4:05 ET

Minnesota: 16-9 ATS vs. conference opponents

Detroit: 8-1 Over off a road win by 10+ points

Dallas at Miami, 4:05 ET

Dallas: 17-7 ATS after allowing 35+ points

Miami: 4-12 ATS off a road game

Seattle at Arizona, 4:05 ET

Seattle: 12-4 Over off a home win

Arizona: 10-4 Over in dome stadiums

NY Jets at Baltimore, 4:15 ET

NY Jets: 5-1 Over off a division loss

Baltimore: 5-0 ATS vs. NY Jets

Oakland at Denver, 4:15 ET

Oakland: 4-13 ATS off a home loss by 10+ points

Denver: 6-1 Under in September

Kansas City at Chicago, 4:15 ET

Kansas City: 6-0 Under in September

Chicago: 13-3 ATS vs. AFC West opponents

San Diego at New England, 8:15 ET NBC

San Diego: 34-15 ATS playing on artificial turf

New England: 1-5 ATS as a home favorite of 7 points or less

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Monday, September 17th

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Washington at Philadelphia, 8:30 ET ESPN

Washington: 25-10 ATS as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points

Philadelphia: 8-2 Under as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points

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posted by phantom

Sept. 13 2007 4:51pm
0 likes

NFL

Write-up

Sunday, September 16

Bills (0-1) @ Steelers (1-0) -- Pittsburgh was dominant in Week 1 win, with 27-yard edge in average field position, 206-46 rushing advantage and +4 turnover ratio, but Bills better than Cleveland. Steelers won six of last seven series games; this is Bills' 1st visit here since '96. Bills were outgained 470-184 by Denver, but they did get punt return TD that put 'em ahead early, so they tried to sit on lead a little. Buffalo seems to be getting good news about health of their player who injured his neck last week- thats good. Last five Steeler home openers went over the total.

Bengals (1-0) @ Browns (0-1) -- Short week and short travel for a Bengal team that ran ball for only 55 yards vs Ravens Monday; beware teams that win with 3+ turnovers (Bengals had four), but Browns traded their starting QB Monday, so assume Anderson gets start here, vs Cincy club they've beaten five times in row by average score of 34-20. Has to be at least a little chaotic for the home side, as fans want Quinn to play, but he can't be ready due to his holdout. LY, Bengals outscored Browns 34-3 in first half of their two meetings, converted 15 of 29 third down plays.

Colts (1-0) @ Titans (1-0) â€”Indy won seven of last eight series games, though LYâ€™s tilts were decided by total of four (14-13I/20-17T) points; Titans controlled ball in both games, running for 423 yards, and after 282 rushing yards in win at Jacksonville, you know theyâ€™ll try to do same thing here. Colts ran ball for 164 yards, averaged 9.6 yards/pass attempt LW vs Saints, outscored NO 31-0 in second half. Titans covered last four tries as dog in their home opener; Colts are 6-1-1 vs. spread in last eight road openers- under is 12-5 in their last 17 road openers. Neither team allowed a point in second half last week.

Texans (1-0) @ Panthers (1-0) â€” David Carr was dumped by Texans in offseason, now is Carolina backup QB; Houston won first game without him, holding Chiefs to 219 yards, even though KC converted on nine of 13 third down plays. Texans had 13-yard edge in field position, had four takeaways, scored TD on defense, but theyâ€™ve lost last three road openers by 12-15-19 points, and are 1-4 vs. spread in last five road openers. Carolina scored just 13.3 pg in losing last three home openers; theyâ€™re 2-8 in last ten, and theyâ€™re 0-4 in home openers that werenâ€™t in Week 1. Panthers ran ball for 186 yards LW, outgaining Rams 387-238. Texans won only previous meeting, 13-10 at home in â€™03.

49ers (1-0) @ Rams (0-1) â€”Injuries to OT Pace and his backup Steussie leave Rams dangerously thin at tackle, a critical position; home side won nine of last eleven games in this rivalry, with Niners 1-7 in last eight visits to this site (five of seven losses by 10+ pts). 49ers gave up 33.3 pg in losing last four road openers; theyâ€™re traveling here on short week, after dramatic cut sloppy win in opener, where they were outrushed by 161-92, completed less than half their passes (15-31) but found a way to win at the end. Rams were outgained by 149 yards by Carolina and didnâ€™t have one play gain 20+ yards (there were 61 overall in league last week).

Packers (1-0) @ Giants (0-1) â€”Health of QB Manning key issue for Giant club whose defense was riddled by Romo LW (23 yds/ completion); offense may have to outscore teams to win, going to inexperienced Lorenzen at QB not good for Coughlinâ€™s shaky job security. Dallas gained 478 yards LW, had eight plays of 20+ yards, scoring six TDs on 11 drives. Pack defense is better than Cowboysâ€™; they held Eagles 283 yards, and McNabb was just 15-33 passing. Pack offense struggled though, running for just 46 yards; they were only home team LW that didnâ€™t score a TD on offense. Eight of ten Packer first downs were earned on third down plays. Manning had played one of his best games before coming out late with bruised shoulder.

Falcons (0-1) @ Jaguars (0-1) â€” Anytime pair of 0-1 teams meet, stakes are high, since 0-2 NFL clubs seldom make postseason. Harrington had rough Falcon debut, as Vikings scored pair of defensive TDs, including INT for TD with game 0-0, but he was given lousy field position throughout day; five of nine Atlanta drives started 80+ yards from paydirt- their average start point was 19-yard line, worst in NFL LW. Jaguars allowed ridiculously high 282 rushing yards (5.8/carry) in loss to Titans- they ran ball for only 72 yards themselves and were outgained by 78 yards. Falcons were one of six teams not to score offensive TD LW; they never even got inside Minnesota red zone.

Saints (0-1) @ Bucs (0-1) â€” New Orleans won four of last five visits to this site; they swept Bucs LY (24-21/31-14), outsacking Bucs 6-0 in two games, and holding Tampa to 9-27 on third down. Bucs went 3/out on 11 of 24 drives vs. Saints LY, but NO defense gave up 452 yards in opener at Indy, 164 on ground, while Saintsâ€™ only TD came on defense score in second quarter. Bucs had 13-yard disadvantage in field position LW; six of their ten drives started 80+ yards from goal line. Bucs lost four of last five home openers, scoring 8.5 pg in last fourâ€”under is 12-3 in their last fifteen home openers. Saints had three extra days to prepare, after playing in Thursday night season opener.

Vikings (1-0) @ Lions (1-0) â€” Minnesota won last ten series tilts, , winning last five in Motown by 2-10-1-5-10 points; last year, they outrushed Lions 307-13, converted 56.3% of third down plays, forced 10 turnovers, held Detroit to 7-22 on third down. Vikings, though, are 2-4 in last six road openers, scoring 14.3 pg in last three. Lions covered nine of last eleven home openers. Last wk, they had 17-0 lead, blew it, but then scored gameâ€™s last 16 points in 36-21 win- three of their four TD drives started in Oakland territory. Vikings had six sacks, cored two defensive TDs LW; they won 56% of third down plays, but never took snap inside Falcon red zone, scoring only offensive TD on long run after short pass to rookie Peterson.

Cowboys (1-0) @ Dolphins (0-1) â€” Dallas averaged 23 yards/ completion LW (15-24/327) but also gave up 438 yards to Giant club that lacks great runner and is largely one-dimensional. Cowboys lost five of last seven road openers, Miami lost three of last four home openers. Miami was outgained 400-273 last week vs. Redskins, running for only 66 yards- they were one of only three teams that had an edge in field position last week but lost. Dallas had eight plays of 20+ yards LW, most in NFL, but their opponent had five, the second-most in league. Under is 11-4 in Miamiâ€™s last fifteen home openers, but nine of last ten Dallas road openers went over, with average total in their last four, 52.4.

Seahawks (1-0) @ Cardinals (0-1) â€” Arizona on short week, hosting NFC West kingpin that had five sacks and +13 yard edge in field position in 20-6 home win last week. Home side won six of last seven series games, with four of last five series totals 45+; Seattle won three of last four road openers, allowing seven or less points in four of last six road debuts. Seahawks lost two of last three visits here, with average total in three games, 47.3. Arizona had 20 penalties for 143 yards in two games vs. Seattle LY, 10 more for 71 yards in sloppy loss Monday night, when falling on a loose ball in end zone in last 2:00 could have given Cardinals much-needed road win. Arizona also lost their center Monday night.

Jets (0-1) @ Ravens (0-1) â€” Health of Pennington key media point this week, but Oregon alum Clemens more than capable if prepared, though Raven defense would be tough one to break in against, even with Lewis hampered by tricep injury. Favorite covered Baltimoreâ€™s last six home openers, with Ravens 4-0 as favorite in first home game of year; theyâ€™re 5-2 in last seven home openers, overall. Ravens won last four games vs. Jets by average score of 23-13- only one of the four came by less than ten points. Lot of distractions for Jets this week, since many think Mangini turned Pats into league office for video piracy of Jetsâ€™ coaching signals. Short week for Baltimore, after loss Monday night.

Chiefs (0-1) @ Bears (0-1) â€” Struggling KC offense (219 total yards, 72 rushing; four turnovers, no TDs at Houston) not likely to find its way vs. brutal Bear defense that shut Chargers out for half last week. Now, also tough to lay double-digit spread with Grossman-led offense that scored three points LW, running ball for 80 yards, turning itl over four times, completing just 12 of 23 passes, but you figure Chicago is good for defensive score, even with star safety Brown now out for year. Schaub was 16-22/187 passing vs. Chiefs LW, but Houston converted just 3-11 on third down, as Chief defense kept team in game until offense totally unraveled. Four of Chicagoâ€™s last five home openers went over the total.

Raiders (0-1) @ Broncos (0-1) â€” Shanahan despises Al Davis over $250,000 he got stiffed out of after Davis fired him; Broncos won seven of last eight series games, with six of seven wins by 10+ points; last yearâ€™s wins were 13-3/17-13 games, with total yardage almost exactly even. Five of last seven series totals were 34 or less. Raiders lost last four road openers, by 5-3-10-22 pts; seven of their last eight road openers went over total, but four of Denverâ€™s last five home openers stayed under. Broncos won last seven home openers (6-1 vs. spread). Oakland showed spunk LW, rallying from 17-0 down to take lead in 4th quarter; new QB McCown was 30-40/253 passing, so Raiders have passing game, nd therefore, backdoor capability.

Chargers (1-0) @ Patriots (1-0) â€” Patriots stunned Chargers in playoffs LY, as Bolts lost three fumbles, completed just 14-32 passes, but now SD has new coaches, same players, and revenge on their mind. NE won 11 of last 13 series games, seven of last eight at this site, but Chargers did win here 41-17 in â€™05. Pats won last five home openers, by 16-7-3-10-2 points; theyâ€™re 5-2-1 vs. spread as favorite in home opener. No idea if VideoGate is distraction in Foxboro, but hard to buck Belichick/Brady in these big games, and this is a big game, especially for Chargers, who didnâ€™t score in first half vs. Bears last week, while Patriots were drilling division rival Jets in Swamp.

Monday, September 17

Redskins (1-0) @ Eagles (0-1) â€” Hopefully Philly found someone who can catch a punt; theyâ€™ve won nine of last 11 vs. Redskins, taking four of last five here, with wins by 13-2-22-24 points. Last year, Iggles won 27-3/21-19, outscoring Skins by combined 38-9 in first half of those games. Washington ran ball for 356 yards vs. Philly LY, but didnâ€™t score TD (four FGs) in four trips to Eagle red zone. Skins lost five of last seven road openers, but are 7-4 as dog in their first road game of season. Philly scored 32.3 pg in last three home openers, with six of last eight going over total. Skins held Miami to 66 rushing yards LW, were one of only three teams that won despite losing field position battle.are 3-2 as home dog, beat Missouri here back in '03.

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posted by phantom

Sept. 13 2007 4:51pm
0 likes

NCAAF

Thursday Night Previews

Preview: West Virginia at Maryland

The matchup: West Virginia Mountaineers at Maryland Terrapins

Kickoff: 7:30 p.m. ET at Byrd Stadium in College Park, Md.

The line: Maryland +16, 65 points

Weather forecast: Temperature will be slightly below 70 degrees throughout the game, with cloud cover but little chance of precipitation in College Park and the southeasterly wind will rarely top 5 mph in the evening.

Key injuries

West Virginia: Linebacker Archie Sims and receiver Nate Sowers are out with hamstring pulls. Defensive nose guard Keilen Dykes hopes to play with a sprained foot, but will be a game-day decision on Thursday. Wes Lyons, a rare WVU skill position player with height, played 21 snaps against Marshall and can expect more this week at Maryland.

Maryland: Backup middle linebacker Alex Wujciak was lost for the season in late summer and backup cornerback Richard Taylor is out this Thursday too.

Three reasons why West Virginia could cover:

1. Rich getting richer: Darius Reynaud scored the Mountaineersâ€™ first two touchdowns at Marshall and Noel Devine two of the last three, both displaying the same killer speed that Steve Slaton and Pat White have used to butcher opponents since mid-2005. Maryland should recall Reynaudâ€™s pair of touchdowns from last yearâ€™s meeting, but freshman Devine is a new weapon in an already devastating artillery.

2. Potential for a fast start: West Virginia blitzed to a 28-0 lead in the first quarter when the Terps visited Morgantown last fall, effectively ending the game before it had started. Maryland has faced only Villanova and Florida International this year, not the best warm-ups for a legitimate national title contender. The Mountaineers also won the last meeting at College Park 31-19 when White was a backup and Slaton didnâ€™t play.

3. Sheer habit: West Virginia has played 10 true road games against unranked opponents in the Slaton & White era. The Mountaineers are 8-2 against the spread (ATS) in those games. The ATS losses were last weekâ€™s 24-point win in Marshall (which was a payday for bettors getting the opening line) and a 17-point win in East Carolina against the tough Pirates defense.

Three reasons why Maryland could cover:

1. Unleashed aerial attack: West Virginia allowed Marshall to compile 266 passing yards last Saturday despite the defensive coachesâ€™ attempts to shut down the Herdâ€™s receivers. Maryland boasts one of the ACCâ€™s best receiving corps, and possibly the conferenceâ€™s deepest. Head coach Ralph Friedgen is also likely to use more of the playbook against his first big opponent of the season, finally letting Jordan Steffy make plays when points are needed instead of relying on the run.

2. Thatâ€™s a lot of points at home: The Terps lost only one game at Byrd Stadium last year and that loss was by 14 points. Maryland has lost at home by more than 16 points only once since the start of the 2003 season, a 28-9 loss to Virginia Tech on Oct. 20, 2005.

3. Theyâ€™ve excelled at keep-away so far: Maryland leads the nation in time of possession through the seasonâ€™s first two weeks, something the Terrapins would love to maintain on Thursday to keep the Mountaineersâ€™ offensive weapons off the field. Maryland limited both Villanova and Florida International to 50 offensive snaps while possessing the ball more than 60 percent of the time.

Cool stat of the day

West Virginia has been favored on the road by double-digits six times since the start of 2005, when Slaton and White were freshmen. The Mountaineers have won all six of those games by an average of 25.1 points. The smallest margin of victory was the 17-point win at East Carolina.

Key quote

â€œIf something's open, you gotta take it right away,â€ Steffy told Maryland's student newspaper The Diamondback, about passing short against Florida International last Saturday when receivers were open further downfield.

â€œThat's what I did. On the one third down, if I had waited a little longer, I might have had something down the field, but again if I see something come open early, I'm gonna take it.â€

â€œWeâ€™re going to let it all hang out on Thursday.â€

pick: Maryland +16

Preview: TCU at Air Force

Everything looks wonky in the Mountain West Conference, with the Air Force Falcons and Wyoming Cowboys sitting atop the conference standings at 2-0.

Air Force had recorded three straight losing seasons under former head coach Fisher DeBerry, but based on last Saturdayâ€™s 20-12 win as 7-point underdogs in Salt Lake City, casual bettors might wonder if thereâ€™s a power shift underway in the Mountain West.

After all, hadnâ€™t new man Troy Calhoun promised to spice up the Falconsâ€™ triple-option with more passing? Isnâ€™t it possible that Air Force has overcome its recruiting handicap through sheer strategy?

In a word, no.

Air Force toppled a limping Utah Utes squad with the same attack it always features in recent years: running, running and more running. The Falcons gained 334 yards on the ground compared to just 56 through the air against Utah. Add in Air Forceâ€™s opener against South Carolina State, when the Falcons rushed for 279 yards, and youâ€™re looking at one of the most one-dimensional offenses in the nation â€¦ again.

â€œZero. Zero,â€ Utah coach Kyle Whittingham told the Colorado Springs Gazette after the loss to the Falcons when asked if he saw huge differences in this yearâ€™s Air Force attack compared to previous seasons.

â€œDifferent formations, same stuff. Theyâ€™re going to beat you with what theyâ€™ve always hung their hat on â€“ the double- and triple-option. Itâ€™s just coming from different formations, but itâ€™s the same attack.â€

Donâ€™t think TCU Horned Frogs head coach Gary Patterson hasnâ€™t noticed. He watched the tape of Air Forceâ€™s win over the Utes and said in the weekly MWC teleconference that Air Force is running the ball more than ever.

Which brings us to Thursday nightâ€™s game in Colorado Springs, in which TCU is an 8-point road favorite.

Air Force loyalists say thereâ€™s no better time to face the preseason MWC faves, with the Falcons coming off an upset win and the Horned Frogs fresh off a 21-point loss. Personally, I think that last weekâ€™s results give TCU betting value that wouldnâ€™t have been imagined in the preseason.

After all, this is the same school thatâ€™s smoked Air Force by scores of 48-10 and 38-14 since joining the Mountain West in 2005.

The same TCU that is 23-4 straight up (SU) and 19-7 against the spread (ATS) since the start of 2005, compared to Air Forceâ€™s 10-15 SU and 10-14 ATS over the same span.

The same Horned Frogs who smoked a Big 12 opponent 27-0 to open the 2007 season while the Falcons took on a second-tier school.

The same small conference powerhouse that led the No. 7 Texas Longhorns, in Austin no less, for 44 minutes last Saturday before an unfortunate fourth quarter led to an uglier final score than the Frogs deserved.

The same overwhelming preseason conference favorites who started the season in the national rankings and who feel slighted that a single road loss to a powerhouse bumped them to the â€œothers receiving votesâ€ category.

The same defense that features Tommy Blake and Chase Ortiz, NFL-bound ends with something to prove after being handled by the Horns. Air Force quarterback Shaun Carney ran for 113 yards last week at Utah but might be running for his life this week against Blake and Ortiz.

TCU is a football school reacting to last week's loss the right way: the Frogs are ornery and grateful they only have to wait five days to lay a licking on an opponent.

Thereâ€™s no power shift in the Mountain West â€“ this is the week in which the conference order is restored. It starts on Thursday night.

posted by phantom

Sept. 13 2007 4:52pm
0 likes

Winning Points Online Football pick of the day.

------------------------------------------------------

**PREFERRED

WEST VIRGINIA over MARYLAND* by 3 (Selection: Home Underdog)

Three of Maryland's first six drives in last season's 45-24 defeat ended in

turnovers, when the QB who played the entire game was Sam ''The

Walking Turnover'' Hollenbach. He threw two INTs. But the most damaging

TO occurred before the Maryland offense had run a play. After West

Virginia scored on its opening drive for 7-0 lead, then-freshman Darius

Heyward-Bey (now a key wide receiver for the Terps) lost a fumble on

the ensuing kickoff. Bingo, West Virginia goes up 14-0 on a cheap, 11-yard

drive before Hollenbach had ''led'' his team to the line of scrimmage. For

the entire first half, West Virginia's average starting field position was

the Maryland 47-yard-line and the halftime score was 38-10.

Maryland stayed the course and ran the football 33 times for 122 yards. They

learned that they can run the ball against West Virginia and grind some clock.

QB Josh Portis -- ineligible to play -- has been imitating WVU quarterback Pat

White in practice for Maryland. "We ran a couple of quarterback draws today

and he's cutting it back and forth, and as a defense we're getting mad

because we're running all over the field, but he's only there to prepare us,"

said DT Carlos Feliciano. "He's only doing what he's been told to. For Portis it

doesn't seem that hard because he's so quick when he makes his cuts. Once

he hits a hole, he's fast. We've been working on our pursuit angles, trying to

catch up with him."

"Without a guy like Portis back there to run that option, I can't say we would

be as prepared as much as we are going to be," safety Christian Varner

said. "He just gives us so many looks. You just can't duplicate that speed."

Feliciano said Pha'Terrell Washington -- a 5.8-Star recruit (out of 6.1), is

doing his best Steve Slaton imitation in practice. "Man, he's been cutting it all

up on us, tearing us up," Feliciano said. "We're getting a little mad, but he's

only making us better." Maryland's defensive coordinator Chris Cosh is in

his second season with the team and took a lot of heat for underestimating

West Virginia last season after his defense missed tackle after tackle after

tackle against these guys. It looks like he is determined to get much better

results this time around.

Meanwhile, after playing it pretty bland on offense in the first two games,

the word on Maryland's offense is "We're gonna let it all hang out on

Thursday." After the Terps' 26-10 win over Florida International, QB Jordan

Steffy was asked if coach Friedgen was calling any plays deep down the

field. As the question was being asked, Steffy was already shaking his

head, 'No.' "At this point we haven't really went up top much," he said.

"I'm not sure whether he's trying to work our way into this slowly or what,

but I'm sure there's a reason behind it."

Besides not wanting to tip off West Virginia, Maryland was facing blitzes

from Florida International on every play this past Saturday. "They brought

every pressure they could bring," Steffy said. "The first half we did a

little bit better as far as picking things up. They literally blitzed every

person possible they could blitz. We got the win, which is all that I've said

time and time again. I just care about winning, and we came out of there with

a (26-10) win.

This past Saturday, Marshall did a decent job of containing WVU early by

pushing their defensive ends vertically up the field, containing and

funneling everything to the LBs in the middle. But Marshall's tank emptied

too soon. Maryland has better depth to follow that blueprint longer, and

force White and Slaton to actually stay in the middle and take a beating,

instead of breaking off a series of huge runs that end out of bounds

without them absorbing a real shot. WEST VIRGINIA, 31-28.

_________________

posted by phantom

Sept. 13 2007 5:15pm
0 likes

COLLEGE FOOTBALL

West Virginia at Maryland (7:45 p.m., Thursday, Sept. 13)

Open: WVU -12.5.

Current: WVU -16.5.

This is one of two things. First, it's the normal public rush on a potential national championship team. Second, it's the realization that the Big East absolutely owns the ACC - and it's not even close. However, I think the initial line was a much more accurate reflection. WVU won by 19 last year as a 17-point favorite. The Terps should get that three-point bump from home, as well as some extra points for having more returning starters, going 3-1 ATS in their L4 at home against the 'Neers, and having revenge.

Central Michigan at Purdue (Noon, Saturday, Sept. 15)

Open: Purdue -17.0.

Current: Purdue -20.5.

Central Michigan is 0-13 against the Big Ten since 1993 and have been outscored 40-12 in those contests. Purdue looks sharp, and with their ability to put points up in a hurry this one could get out of hand. The Chips are a horrible grass team and they are just 12-19-1 ATS over the past seven years as a road dog. After a huge win against Toledo it looks like the sharps are anticipating a letdown.

Toledo at Kansas (7 p.m., Saturday, Sept. 15)

Open: Kansas -17.5.

Current: Kansas -21.5.

The Rockets managed to absolutely steal a win last year in double-overtime against the Jayhawks, taking advantage of a +5 turnover differential en route to a 37-31 victory. Kansas has looked extremely sharp and the extra cushion could be due to the fact that the Jayhawks are 8-3 ATS at home recently while the Rockets are 1-5 ATS on the road and 5-11 ATS in the nonconference.

Boston College at Georgia Tech (8 p.m., Saturday, Sept. 15)

Open: Georgia Tech -4.0.

Current: Georgia Tech -7.0.

Tech has been one of the most impressive teams in the country to this point - even if they have only played Notre Dame and Samford. There is an incredibly profitable returning defensive starters system at work here, and that may have shifted the line, but I still think that B.C. is being disrespected. The Eagles are 19-8 away from Chestnut Hill lately, even if they are 1-4 against the Yellowjackets.

UTEP at New Mexico State (8 p.m., Saturday, Sept. 15)

Open: NMSU -2.0.

Current: NMSU -6.0.

UTEP has inexplicably covered in two straight games. NMSU is 0-1 against the number and coming off a loss in an emotional in-state rivalry. So why the love? Mainly it has to do with the Miners' weak secondary and the fact that the Aggies have covered in four of the last five meetings at home. Be wary - UTEP is 8-3 ATS against the WAC and the Aggies are 5-15 ATS as a favorite.

Florida State at Colorado (10 p.m., Saturday, Sept. 15)

Open: Florida State -7.0.

Current: Florida -4.0.

Clearly the sharps are much smarter than the general public, because there is a heavy reverse line movement on this one. The squares are on the Seminoles at nearly a 2-to-1 ratio, yet the line has plummeted. It could have to do with playing at altitude, in a hostile environment, and fighting a time-zone change. Or it could have to due with the fact that the Florida teams from the ACC - Miami and FSU - are the two most overrated bets in sports.

SMU at Arkansas State (7 p.m., Saturday, Sept. 15)

Open: Pick.

Current: Arkansas State -3.0.

Southern Mississippi at East Carolina (6 p.m., Saturday, Sept. 15)

Open: Southern Miss -3.0.

Current: Pick.

posted by phantom

Sept. 13 2007 5:20pm
0 likes

NFL

Houston at Carolina (1 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 16)

Open: Carolina -9.0.

Current: Carolina -6.5.

The public never saw this line at 9.0, but according to Stephen Nover's reporting that's the number that the LVSC released to its clients this week. That, to me, is a huge red flag. The books are clearly expecting the public to overvalue Houston's blowout win last week, but I think it's also an indictment of the Panthers. Carolina has been an automatic play as an underdog but they are just 9-17-1 as home favorites with the brain trust of John Fox and Jake Delhomme.

Oakland at Denver (4 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 16)

Open: Denver -9.0.

Current: Denver -10.0.

Denver has been the preeminent September team in the league over the past decade and they possess one of the most tangible home-field advantages in the NFL. However, I didn't see anything in their performance that would justify them as a double-digit favorite here. They were in a similar situation last year - posted as 10.5-point home chalk, after a lackluster opening week road game, against a division rival - only to eke out a 9-6 win against the Chiefs.

Minnesota at Detroit (1 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 16)

Open: 41.0.

Current: 43.0.

This is a key move because it's off one of the most important totals (41) and past another (42). I don't really understand the movement, however, even after Detroit's 36-point outburst against the Raiders. Minnesota has averaged 1.4 offensive touchdowns per game in the Brad Childress Era and if they don't score with their defense they may not score at all. The 'over' is 8-4 in this series since 2001, but it's just 11-9 over the long-term.

Kansas City at Chicago (1 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 16)

Open: Chicago -11.5.

Current: Chicago -12.5

If the Chiefs lost by 17 points to the Texans, who aren't exactly a Super Bowl-caliber juggernaut, then what will happen when they roll in to Soldier Field? The answer is not good things. There are some systems here that suggest taking the points when getting over double-digits against a team off a road loss. But then when you consider that Chicago won its first four home games of 2006 by a combined score of 152-30 and that the Chiefs were hammered 45-7 last year in Pittsburgh you may want to throw systems out the window and stick with common sense.

posted by phantom

Sept. 13 2007 5:20pm
0 likes

the opening line

The Glantz-Culver Line

by T.O. Whenham

In the world of sports betting there are many things that are treated with an almost mythical devotion. Concepts like smart money and wise guy plays are viewed by many people as the secret key to betting success. Another topic of keen interest to many is the opening line. Some people think that the opening lines, since they are developed by experts, are an indicator of what is going to happen in the game, and a key tool for handicapping success. This may be true, but only if you really understand where the lines come from and what they can mean.

Before the Internet sportsbooks changed everything the opening lines were straightforward. The Stardust Casino put up the first line, and those virgin numbers were made available to wise guys for early play. That play would correct any errors or soft spots, and then the public could have their way. With the Internet, more information is available and there are more people interested in providing early lines. Offshore books release lines soon after the previous games have been played. Some interesting information can be gained at times from looking at how those early lines move compared to the lines the Stardust releases. On top of that, overnight lines, such as the Glantz-Culver Line which is created by Keith Glantz and Russell Culver and is provided to sports books clients and syndicated to many newspapers, provide another source of information. Their lines are set primarily using power ratings, and act as an estimate of where lines should open.

Regardless of which early lines you see, it is important to think about what is behind them before you make any decisions based on them. It has traditionally been thought that opening lines are set so that books will get equal action on both sides of the bet. That would eliminate any exposure that the sportsbooks have and guarantee them a profit. Though that makes sense in theory, it is not always the case. Lines can be set for other purposes, and you can make a bad decision if you use the opening lines to make a selection without considering them.

In some cases a book could have a clear opinion about what is going to happen in a game and will look to profit from that. If they are very confident that one team is going to win the game because of a handicapping factor or inside information, then it would be in their best interest to set a line that will attract action on the team that they feel will lose the bet. In that way the book can make more than just their commission on the game. That's known as a trap line, and it is clearly constructed to maximize profit. Though it is open to debate how often trap lines actually are in place (not nearly as often as the more paranoid handicappers would have you believe), you nonetheless need to include the potential for them in your thought process if you want to take the best advantage of opening line information.

A line can also be used to limit action on a game that a book doesn't particularly want to be heavily involved in. This can be done especially effectively with totals. A line can be set that seems tight no matter how you look at it. In that case, most handicappers will reject it in favor of a juicier proposition, and the books succeed in avoiding a game they don't like.

Opening lines are set by experts with a lifetime of experience and access to the best information. Observing where they are set and how they move from there, when done with your eyes open, can certainly help you pick winners.

posted by phantom

Sept. 13 2007 5:21pm
0 likes

REd Sheet

KANSAS 57 - Toledo 13 - (2:00) -- Line opened at Kansas minus 24, and is now minus 21Â½. Like the line

movement here. Makes little sense that the "public" is moving away from a team which has

opened with a pair of blowout wins (114-7 pt edge in 2 starts), with 1 of those 2 coming

against a Central Michigan team which returned 14 starters from LY's 10-4 team (bowl

winner). Kansas has exhibited superb balance thus far, with QB Reesing a true leader, who

has thrown for 518 yds & 6 TDs already. The Rockets, thus far, have shown that they can't

stop anything, having allowed 52 pts in each of their 2 outings. And more than interesting

to note the aforementioned Cent Michigan, last week, beat Toledo by 21 pts. So a 66-pt

difference in CM games. Oh, and how about revenge for LY's OT loss?

RATING: KANSAS 89

FLORIDA 23 - Tennessee 22 - (3:30 EDT - CBS) -- Line opened Florida minus 10, and is now minus 8. The

defending national champion Gators have gotten off the mark quickly, rolling up 108 pts in

their 2 wipeout wins, including LW's annihilation of a decent Troy squad, which returned 14

starters from LY's NewOrleans Bowl team. Tebow is fulfilling expectations in replacing the

departed Leak. But, defensively, just 2 starters return, & that is the key to this one. Vol QB

Ainge is hitting at a 66% completion clip, & that formerly stagnant UT offense has been

extremely impressive, averaging 35 ppg vs the likes of California & So Mississippi. A year

ago, this one went to the wire, in what has become the norm in SEC showdown biggies.

And this shapes up along those lines. Can't call the upset, but close.

RATING: TENNESSEE 89

MICHIGAN STATE 38 - Pittsburgh 20 - (12:00) -- Line opened at Michigan St minus 7Â½, and is now minus

9. The Spartans are under new management, namely Mark Dantonio from Cincinnati,

where the Bearcats made it to 2 bowls, in his brief 3-yd tenure. A no nonsense type, who

may be the final link in taking the proud Michigan St legacy to its former place among the

elites. Off the mark quickly, but only to fail in maintaining that level, has been the recent

history of the Spartans, but that tendency may have been laid to rest. State has moved it

overland, to the tune of a 440-59 edge so far, & had a 335-81 edge over Pitt in RYs a year

ago. Panthers hurting at QB, & that Pitt defense was had with regularity a year ago.

RATING: MICHIGAN STATE 88

INDIANA 41 - Akron 17 - (12:00) -- Line opened at Indiana minus 11, and is now minus 13. Yes, we know

that the Hoosiers have hardly been a "go to" squad lately, not having posted a winning

season since '94. But they made a bit of noise in the latter half of the '06 season, with a pair

of covers by 22 & 32 pts (Iowa & Michigan St). Returning 16 starters (8 on both "O" & "D"),

including QB Lewis (3 TD passes in each of first 2 games), they have extended that hopeful

start of LY. Dedication is of no concern, as the tragic death of former HC Hoeppner has put

focus front-&-center. The Zips came from a win over Army to a 3-FD, 69-yd, 3-pt effort at

Ohio St. Next week's revenger vs Kent may be of more importance.

RATING: INDIANA 88

ARIZONA STATE 56 - San Diego State 7 - (10:00) -- Line opened at Arizona St minus 27Â½, and is still minus

27Â½. A week ago, the Aztecs of San Diego St travelled to Washington St, in their opening

game, in hopes of turning around their recent misfortunes. Afterall, they returned 10 offensive

starters from LY's 3-9 team. Forget it. A 45-17 pasting, allowing 36 FDs & 654 yds.

That being the case, imagine what these ing Sun Devils will be able to do. Under new

HC Dennis Erickson, Arizona St is truly exploiting the vast talent that appears was just

waiting for him. Carpenter & Co's 45-3 opening day rout of San Jose St is simply an

indicator of what should happen here. Aztecs cannot get it done vs Pac Ten.

RATING: ARIZONA STATE 88

CHICAGO 34 - Kansas City 9 - (4:15) -- Line opened at Chicago minus 12Â½, and is now minus 11Â½. The

Bears were participants in last week's Top NFL Play, & came through with a 14-3 loss at

San Diego. We actually thought it would be much worse, but that Bear defense was once

again, the best unit on the field. The turnover (4) was key in that loss, as Chicago pretty

much stifled that explosive Charger offense (262 TYs, including holding Tomlinson to a

mere 25 yds on 17 carries: 1.5 ypr). Now they face the Chiefs' Johnson, who has a lesser

cast surrounding him. So they should be able to contain him. The fact is that KC is on the

decline, as their putrid showing in LY's playoff loss to the Colts indicated. The Bears were

oustanding as hosts in the first half of LY, & quick chance for atonement here.

RATING: CHICAGO 88

NEAR CHOICES (Rated 87): Missouri, New Mexico, Penn St, Texas Tech - NFL: Vikings, Patriots, Eagles

LINE MOVES (from largest to smallest moves): TexasTech (-21Â½ to -28); UtahSt (+51Â½ to +45Â½); USC

(-5Â½ to -10); Minnesota (-6Â½ to -10); UCLA (-10 to -13Â½); WestVirginia (-13Â½ to -16Â½); Toledo (+24 to

+21Â½); Iowa (-14 to -16Â½); Illinois (-10 to -12Â½); CentFla (+21Â½ to +19); VirginiaTech (-17 to -19); Indiana (-

11 to -13); Tennessee (+10 to +8); Houston (-12Â½ to -14Â½); Stanford (-5 to -7); TCU (-7 to -8Â½); Buffalo

(+35Â½ to +34); Army (+22Â½ to +21); MichiganSt (-7Â½ to -9); Fla-International (+34Â½ to +33) - NFL: KansasCity

(+12Â½ to +11Â½) -- TIME CHANGES: NorthernIllinois/EasternMichigan: from 2:00 to 12 Noon...

posted by phantom

Sept. 14 2007 5:16pm
0 likes

Winning Points

****BEST BET

ARMY over WAKE FOREST* by 1

As dangerous as a team like Wake Forest can be in an underdog role, with Jim

Grobe doing the best game-planning of any coach in the nation these days, when

going from the role of the hunter to the hunted it is a different matter entirely.

Especially this week. Now off of those draining losses to Boston College and

Nebraska, and with a key A.C.C. affair on deck vs. Maryland next week, the

Deacons find themselves in a flat spot. And while Grobe has indeed upgraded the

talent a bit, the bottom line is that the Deacons are still not going to overpower

many opponents, especially when their full focus is not there. They have been

favored by -14 or more six times under Grobe, taking an 0-6 ATS collar in those

games, and rarely have the settings provided the psychological issues that this one

does. Meanwhile Army will be under Stan Brock what the Black Knights have been

for many years â€“ a gritty team that will come well prepared each week. There are

actually some tactical advantages here, with that solid tandem of senior safeties

Caleb Campbell and Jordan Murray the ideal veteran leaders to guard against the

trick plays that have been the Deacon forte. The Army defense has opened with a

pair of outstanding games, and the solid focus on fundamentals brings a â€œbend but

donâ€™t breakâ€ approach here that is ideal to keep Wake in check. Meanwhile the

ankle injury to David Pevoto is also a non-issue, with Carson Williams having the

best arm of any Cadet QB in many years. ARMY 24-23.

***BEST BET

KANSAS* over TOLEDO by 39

Is it ever as easy as looking at the Kansas demolition of Central Michigan (52-7),

and Centralâ€™s subsequent whipping of Toledo (52-31) and calling for those comparative

scores to lead us in the right direction? No. But the truth is that there is a

lot more meat to this bone. First the Jayhawks will bring a prime revenge motive

to the table after losing a bitter overtime affair at Toledo in a nationally-televised

Friday night affair last year, a game in which they were far superior in terms of personnel

(23-14 in first downs and 391-237 in total offense), but suffered a -5

turnover ratio, including an interception that was returned for a touchdown. It is

a much different offense now, however, with Ed Warriner supplying the tactics and

Todd Reesing making the plays at QB, which means that those giveaways are not

going to be there. And could a non-conference revenge affair have a better setting,

with the Jayhawks only off of that walk-over vs. S.E. Louisiana, and with Florida

International on deck providing no reason to let up? While the home team will

play with a special passion, all of those off-season issues have clearly gotten into the

heads of the Rockets. The defense has been an abomination in allowing 52 points

in each of the first two games, getting exploited for over 200 yards both rushing

and passing each time, and it was that unit that was going to have to carry the early

load while pedestrian QB Aaron Opelt and the offense tried to find their way. It

only goes from bad to worse here. KANSAS 55-16.

COLLEGE FOOTBALL

**PREFERRED

Illinois over Syracuse* by 21

Neither Ron Zook nor Greg Robinson are finding wins easy to come by as they try

to turn downtrodden programs around. Both bring the same 5-20 to the table, but

Robinson owns that 31-21 win in Champaign last year. But all those records do is

enable us to lay a shorter price than what is called for in this one, for while Zook

has the Illini making legitimate strides, with the kind of personnel that he can

build a winning team around; the Orange are heading nowhere. The matchups are

particularly strong for Illinois here, with Zookâ€™s squad being able to hold its own

against anyone at the line of scrimmage the past two seasons, but the passing game

holding them back. Now they face an opponent in which the dominance in the

trenches can be enough, with Syracuse overpowered on both sides of the ball in

those opening losses to Washington and Iowa. And it is not as though the Orange

can go to the air to make up for getting pushed around at the line of scrimmage,

with a passing game that is lacking in both weapons and tactics. ILLINOIS 34-13.

Vanderbilt* over Mississippi by 17

Our attempts to buy in early with these Commodores came up short vs. Alabama

last week, with a calf injury hampering mobile QB Chris Nickson (he only played

half of the game), and with early penalties wiping out a 60-yard gain on the first

play from scrimmage and then a punt return for a touchdown later in the half. But

while that loss stings, it also helps to keep the value in the right range for this one.

There may not have been a more misleading scoreboard in any S.E.C. game last

year than the 17-10 win by Ole Miss against Vandy in Oxford â€“ the Commodores

dominated play to the tune of 23-7 in first downs and 400-179 in total offense.

And note that as one-sided as those numbers were, it was another game in which

an injury limited Nickson to just one half of play. But Vanderbilt lost because of

five turnovers, two missed field goals and a botched punt that led to a Rebel touchdown

on a 17 yard drive. Now it is time to take out those frustrations, and after

being too tight for the Alabama showdown look for Bobby Johnson to have his

team much more relaxed. VANDERBILT 31-14.

Indiana* over Akron by 21

One of the great stories in college football so far is the way that these Hoosiers have

managed to overcome the tragic loss of Terry Hoeppner and get their season off to

a good start. Now they are in the right place at the right time to grab one more win

before Big 10 play begins, one that could mean a lot towards getting a bowl big

later. There are two keys here â€“ the Hoosiers bring big play ability, which the Zips

do not, and they also bring a focus that the visitor lacks. This trip is a most awkward

sandwich for Akron, which not only finally got Ohio State on the schedule

but then flirting with a Cinderella story for a long time at Columbus (the Zips

trailed only 3-2 at halftime). That loss creates physical and emotional issues this

week, and it is made worse by the distraction of having arch-rival Kent State in the

M.A.C. opener immediately on deck. A punchless side does not need those kind

of distractions, and they lack the playmakers to threaten through the back door

after the host breaks this one open. INDIANA 34-13.

Wyoming over Boise State* by 1

Yes, we are fully aware of just what the blue field has meant to the Broncos in

recent years, which is part of why our power ratings regard this site as they do. The

key is that the betting markets are also fully aware of those past records, and that

means some opportunities to begin stepping in, like right here. Now it is the most

limited Boise State teams in many seasons that is favored by much more than the

talent calls for, and instead of this being a bounce-back affair from that loss at

Washington we instead believe that we will be looking at a crisis of confidence for

a team that is not accustomed to being handled that way. And in terms of being

handled, note that they were held to 246 yards in last yearâ€™s 17-10 win in Laramie,

when they only escaped because of a +2 turnover advantage, with one of those

being an interception that was returned for a TD. Emerging Cowboy QB Karsten

Sween was not at the helm in that one (which might have altered the outcome) but

he is now, and that means enough punch to call for the outright upset.

WYOMING 24-23.

West Virginia over Maryland* by 13 (Thursday)

The Terrapins get their second look at Patrick White and Steve Slayton, after

falling behind 28-0 in the first quarter of last yearâ€™s 45-21 loss at Morgantown,

when they allowed 7.9 per rush. Ralph Friedgan will not let a lawnmower anywhere

near the field this week. WEST VIRGINIA 34-21.

T.C.U. over Air Force* by 13 (Thursday)

A tough psychological turnaround for the Horned Frogs, who were able to carry

big dreams into the locker room at halftime in Austin. But it was a 38-14 demolition

LY, with 377-142 in total offense and the Falcons not scoring until they were

down 38-0 in the fourth quarter. T.C.U. 29-16.

Oklahoma State over Troy* by 8 (Friday)

Off of those step-up games vs. Arkansas and Florida teams on the road, is a short

week really what the Trojans want? Being on television does have its price. But has

Bobby Reid lost his grip on the Cowboy QB spot? OKLAHOMA STATE 34-26.

Connecticut* over Temple by 29

With the Big East opener at Pittsburgh on deck, the Huskies should show some

kindness. It appears the Owls will need plenty of mercy this season. CONNECTICUT

42-13.

Virginia over North Carolina* by 3

posted by phantom

Sept. 14 2007 5:16pm
0 likes

The Max Kevin O'neil

College Football

Thursday, September 13th, 2007

@Maryland +16Â½ over West Virginia

Selection and analysis by Kevin Oâ€™Neill

This an interesting rivalry between these two teams.

West Virginia and Maryland both have better football

traditions than they are credited for, and these

border state rivals play each other every year. Ralph

Friedgen and Rich Rodriguez were the offensive

coordinators at Georgia Tech (Friedgen) and

Clemson (Rodriguez) and faced off annually in ACC

battles, with Friedgen getting the better of it more

often than not. That continued when they both took

the jobs at their alma maters prior to the 2001

season. Terrapins beat Mountaineers the first four

times they played (including a bowl game), covering

the first five. But as WVU has morphed into a

national power, the tables have been turned in the

rivalry. The Mountaineers have won the last three,

covering the last two.

But thereâ€™s reason to expect a solid performance out

of Maryland in this game. The Terps staff, for a

couple of years, has considered this to be their

breakout year. Looking at the depth chart it is easy

to see why. Seniors and juniors dominate the

starting lineup. When it comes to this game in

particular, it is worth noting that none of these kids

have been on the field for a win over West Virginia.

After starting with Villanova and Florida

International, it is clear that this is the game that

theyâ€™ve been pointing for.

There is some concern in Terpland that Maryland

didnâ€™t put the wood to Florida International on

Saturday night, but Maryland scored TDâ€™s on their

first two possessions and maybe they just didnâ€™t

want to show much or expend a lot of energy on

short rest. West Virginia steamrolled Marshall late

after struggling mightily for much of the game.

Amazingly, Marshall held WVU to 118 yards and 3

first downs in the first half before they wore out.

You can be sure that Marshallâ€™s defensive tactics will

make their way into Marylandâ€™s defensive game

plan.

A speed team like West Virginia may not find the

natural grass of Byrd Stadium to their liking. And

with this big pointspread, the weakness of WVU

could mean a lot. West Virginiaâ€™s defense pass

defense has been very shaky since the middle of last

season. In fact, their last six games last year all saw

them give up more passing yards than they did in

any of their first seven games. WVU has now

allowed 278 passing yards or more in every one of

those games. This year theyâ€™ve allowed 501 passing

yards in their first two games. And in none of those

eight games back to last year has an opponent

scored less than 23 points. With a sharp offensive

mind like Friedgen having better personnel than he

has had for a while, weâ€™ll look for the Terps to give

the Mountaineers a very respectable game on their

home field. West Virginia by only 10.

Saturday, September 15th, 2007

Virginia (+3) over @North Carolina

Selection and analysis by Kevin Oâ€™Neill

After a lot of preseason talk about how they were

ready to be a breakout team, Virginia has been a

major disappointment thus far. They were waxed in

their opener at Wyoming by a very well coached

Cowboys team. Wyoming is a better team than

people realize, and it is a tough place to visit, so a

lot of people thought that the Cavaliers would

bounce back strong in their home game against

Duke. But that didnâ€™t happen, and the Blue Devils

made a game out of it. But the 24-13 final score

was misleading due to poor special teams play by

Virginia. The Cavs fumbled a kickoff return and

three mistakes by the long snapper led to a safety, a

16-yard TD drive, and a blocked field goal for Duke.

Virginia outgained Duke 4.9 yards per play to 3.3,

even when the bad snaps are factored in. Cedric

Peerman ran for 137 yards and backup QB Peter

Lalich played well in relief of starter Jameel Sewell.

The Cavaliers are eligible to improve off of such a

mistake-ridden game, and now UVA is taking on a

North Carolina team that is among the youngest in

all of college football. NFL scouts love the talent

that Virginia features on their defense and one of

the many freshman contributing for North Carolina is

quarterback TJ Yates. Yates had a big game in a

loss to East Carolina. North Carolina may provide a

kick-start to the offensive production of Virginia.

UNC allowed East Carolina to light them up for.

Patrick Pinkney of East Carolina was making his first

career start and he threw for 406 yards. If ECU

hadnâ€™t missed three field goals it wouldnâ€™t have

required a late field goal for the Pirates to win that

one. North Carolina is incredibly young. Theyâ€™ve

had 16 players start a game for the first time

already this season. 9 true freshmen have seen

action already. They beat up James Madison, as

any 1-A team should, before the ECU loss but

theyâ€™ve allowed more first downs than theyâ€™ve given

up. They will be an unreliable team this season and

really shouldnâ€™t be a favorite against decent

competition, which Virginia is. UVA is not happy

with their season thus far, and they shouldnâ€™t be,

but theyâ€™re more advanced than North Carolina.

Virginia by 3.

KEVIN Oâ€™NEILLâ€™S

THE MAX

The Maximum Profit Football Weekly

â€¢ Volume 8 Issue 4 September 13-17, 2007 â€¢

JUST LIKE THE COLLEGES. BIG FAVORITES CLEAN

UP IN NFL OPENING WEEK CONTESTS.

Chalky NFL: NFL favorites started the season 10-5-1 pending the Cardinals/Niners game. Those playing

the bigger favorites did real well, as favorites of more than 3 (all of whom were between (4Â½ and 7) were

6-1 against the spread. A lot of those favorites were bet up over the course of the week. Dogs were 27-22

in the college ranks after the amazingly favorite favoring Week 1.

Rough Week in the Max: The Max had a losing week, and the losing is squarely on the shoulders of

yours truly. I went 0-5-1 in the Max this week after the Monday night loss on the Ravens. Thatâ€™s two losing

issues to start the season after a few years of getting off to very brisk starts in this publication. A lot of

work goes into it every week so it is disappointing to come up short. Hopefully that will turn around this

week.

Phones Bounce Back: Amazingly, my phone service bounced back from a losing week 1 with a 5-2

pointspread mark. I say amazingly, because Iâ€™ve never seen such a disparity between the performance of

the phone service and the performance of my selections in The Max in either direction. The two losers on

the phones were New Mexico State and the Ravens, both of which also appeared in The Max. All the phone

service winners were games I came up with as the week went along. Usually a winning week in The Max is

also a winning week on the phones and vice versa, although the phones have done better than The Max

historically, but Iâ€™ve never seen such tremendous disparity. My Sunday night/Monday opinion was lousy.

My late week decisions were sound. The exact opposite had been the case in the first week of college.

Midweek Off to Losing Start: The Midweek selection lost last week, and youâ€™ll the phone number for

those this week.

Radio Firms Up: I will, in fact, be doing the two national radio shows that you guys are used to hearing

me on. â€œAgainst the Spreadâ€, Marc Lawrenceâ€™s show, is on a number of stations, as well as satellite radio.

You can hear my Friday morning appearances on â€œFirst Team on Foxâ€ with Steve Czaban and Scott Linn on

over a hundred stations nationally as well as XM 142.

Dave Fobare: Daveâ€™s comp phone at 1-770-618-8700 has started 4-0. Dave puts a lot of analysis on those

plays and they are worth checking out when you have the opportunity. Weâ€™ll kick off a similar vehicle for

Matty and Erik next week.

Copyright 2007. All Rights Reserved.

Published by Strategic Sports Publishing

8343 Roswell Road. #325, Atlanta, Georgia 30350

Phone (770.649.1078) Fax (770.234.5051) Email (kevino@bellsouth.net)

2

SELECTIONS: September 13-17, 2007

College Football

Thursday, September 13th, 2007

@Maryland +16Â½ over West Virginia

Selection and analysis by Kevin Oâ€™Neill

This an interesting rivalry between these two teams.

West Virginia and Maryland both have better football

traditions than they are credited for, and these

border state rivals play each other every year. Ralph

Friedgen and Rich Rodriguez were the offensive

coordinators at Georgia Tech (Friedgen) and

Clemson (Rodriguez) and faced off annually in ACC

battles, with Friedgen getting the better of it more

often than not. That continued when they both took

the jobs at their alma maters prior to the 2001

season. Terrapins beat Mountaineers the first four

times they played (including a bowl game), covering

the first five. But as WVU has morphed into a

national power, the tables have been turned in the

rivalry. The Mountaineers have won the last three,

covering the last two.

But thereâ€™s reason to expect a solid performance out

of Maryland in this game. The Terps staff, for a

couple of years, has considered this to be their

breakout year. Looking at the depth chart it is easy

to see why. Seniors and juniors dominate the

starting lineup. When it comes to this game in

particular, it is worth noting that none of these kids

have been on the field for a win over West Virginia.

After starting with Villanova and Florida

International, it is clear that this is the game that

theyâ€™ve been pointing for.

There is some concern in Terpland that Maryland

didnâ€™t put the wood to Florida International on

Saturday night, but Maryland scored TDâ€™s on their

first two possessions and maybe they just didnâ€™t

want to show much or expend a lot of energy on

short rest. West Virginia steamrolled Marshall late

after struggling mightily for much of the game.

Amazingly, Marshall held WVU to 118 yards and 3

first downs in the first half before they wore out.

You can be sure that Marshallâ€™s defensive tactics will

make their way into Marylandâ€™s defensive game

plan.

A speed team like West Virginia may not find the

natural grass of Byrd Stadium to their liking. And

with this big pointspread, the weakness of WVU

could mean a lot. West Virginiaâ€™s defense pass

defense has been very shaky since the middle of last

season. In fact, their last six games last year all saw

them give up more passing yards than they did in

any of their first seven games. WVU has now

allowed 278 passing yards or more in every one of

those games. This year theyâ€™ve allowed 501 passing

yards in their first two games. And in none of those

eight games back to last year has an opponent

scored less than 23 points. With a sharp offensive

mind like Friedgen having better personnel than he

has had for a while, weâ€™ll look for the Terps to give

the Mountaineers a very respectable game on their

home field. West Virginia by only 10.

Saturday, September 15th, 2007

Virginia (+3) over @North Carolina

Selection and analysis by Kevin Oâ€™Neill

After a lot of preseason talk about how they were

ready to be a breakout team, Virginia has been a

major disappointment thus far. They were waxed in

their opener at Wyoming by a very well coached

Cowboys team. Wyoming is a better team than

people realize, and it is a tough place to visit, so a

lot of people thought that the Cavaliers would

bounce back strong in their home game against

Duke. But that didnâ€™t happen, and the Blue Devils

made a game out of it. But the 24-13 final score

was misleading due to poor special teams play by

Virginia. The Cavs fumbled a kickoff return and

three mistakes by the long snapper led to a safety, a

16-yard TD drive, and a blocked field goal for Duke.

Virginia outgained Duke 4.9 yards per play to 3.3,

even when the bad snaps are factored in. Cedric

Peerman ran for 137 yards and backup QB Peter

Lalich played well in relief of starter Jameel Sewell.

The Cavaliers are eligible to improve off of such a

mistake-ridden game, and now UVA is taking on a

North Carolina team that is among the youngest in

all of college football. NFL scouts love the talent

that Virginia features on their defense and one of

the many freshman contributing for North Carolina is

quarterback TJ Yates. Yates had a big game in a

loss to East Carolina. North Carolina may provide a

kick-start to the offensive production of Virginia.

UNC allowed East Carolina to light them up for.

Patrick Pinkney of East Carolina was making his first

career start and he threw for 406 yards. If ECU

hadnâ€™t missed three field goals it wouldnâ€™t have

required a late field goal for the Pirates to win that

one. North Carolina is incredibly young. Theyâ€™ve

had 16 players start a game for the first time

already this season. 9 true freshmen have seen

action already. They beat up James Madison, as

any 1-A team should, before the ECU loss but

theyâ€™ve allowed more first downs than theyâ€™ve given

up. They will be an unreliable team this season and

really shouldnâ€™t be a favorite against decent

competition, which Virginia is. UVA is not happy

with their season thus far, and they shouldnâ€™t be,

but theyâ€™re more advanced than North Carolina.

Virginia by 3.

3

@Virginia Tech (- 20) over Ohio

Selection and analysis by Matty Baiungo

Itâ€™s hard to imagine Virginia Tech playing and

looking any worse than they did on Saturday

night at LSU after getting drilled 48-7. The

Hokies were completely out-classed, outmanned,

out-hustled, out-played, etcâ€¦they

were out-everythinged from start to finish.

Can their offensive numbers get any worse?

11 first downs, 149 total yards, 9 completed

passes, while gaining just 2.6 yards per play.

How about their defensive numbers? 28 first

downs, 598 total yards, allowed 297 rushing

yards, and 8.2 yards per play. Add it all up,

and it comes out to Frank Beamerâ€™s most

lopsided loss since he took over at VA Tech in

1987. It was also the first time they allowed

more than 40 points since 2003, a streak of 40

consecutive games.

With last weekâ€™s results, this game takes a

parallel that I use when looking for value in a

horse race. Good horses and good teams are

similar in that they throw in a clunker every

now and then. And then in their next race or

game, they get overlooked in the odds and

thus they become an overlay. And thatâ€™s

exactly what Tech is in this game. Had they

played a respectable game, most likely they

would have been installed at least a 4-

touchdown favorite here. Just two years back

this same Ohio team was getting 34 points in

Blacksburg and got shutout 45-0. Just draw a

line through the LSU game as if it never

happened. Tech will bounce back strong here,

and take out their frustrations against an

inferior opponent.

Ohio got an inside-out win last week at UL

Lafayette. They won on the scoreboard 31-23, but

got out-yarded 534-416 while allowing a lowly Sun

Belt team to average over 7 yards per play including

over 5 yards per rush. If they got dominated at the

line of scrimmage against them, then they will get

absolutely crushed against Tech. Especially

considering the circumstances in which Tech enters

this game. Over Frank Beamerâ€™s 20 years at Tech,

he has developed some significant spread patterns

that are in play for this game. Coming off a loss, his

teams are 38-23-2 to the spread for a nice 62.2%.

When playing teams out of conference, his spread

record is an awesome 51-27-1 for a powerful

65.3%. Tech needs a blowout win after back-toback

poor performances to open the season, and

theyâ€™ll do that with a convincing win over Ohio.

Virginia Tech by 25.

Tennessee (+8) @ Florida

Selection and analysis by Erik Scheponik

Everything will be earned in the rugged SEC

East this season, as the top four teams are

very close across the board. I expect the

head-to-head matchups to be on par with what

we saw between South Carolina and Georgia

this past weekend in Athens. Iâ€™m not ready to

downgrade the Volunteers because of their

early loss at Cal, a game where two nonoffensive

Bears touchdowns ended up being

the final margin of victory. Five, maybe seven

teams in the country could have beaten Jeff

Tedfordâ€™s team that night, and although that

may again be the case here in Gainesville, this

series has a history of being tooth and nail with

6 out of the last 9 decided by 4 or less points,

including Floridaâ€™s 21-20 victory last year, a

game that Tennessee led almost the entire

way. They actually have double revenge

incentive against their hated rival and Fulmerâ€™s

teams have been a winning proposition on the

road since he came to Knoxville many moons

ago. Really like the way that the Vols disposed

of a decent Southern Miss team in business-like

fashion at home last week in what looked like a

perfect spot for an ambush. The lack of

experience at the wide receiver position hasnâ€™t

hurt Erik Ainge thus far as he is 55-83, for 547

yards and a 5/0 ratio in his second year in

David Cutcliffeâ€™s offense.

Tim Tebow has looked like a monster in Urban

Meyerâ€™s offense as well, but that was against

Western Kentucky and Troy St. Tebow proved

that he would win Sun Belt player of the year

hands down, but John Chavisâ€™s group will

provide a much stiffer challenge. However,

itâ€™s not on offense where the Gators have

question marks, itâ€™s their defense. They

returned only two starters on that side of the

ball, and although very highly touted, this unit

is unproven. Laying this many points to

Cutcliffe, Ainge and the talented stable of

Volunteer running backs is definitely a tall task

with a defense this green. Since 1997, no

team has won and covered two games a row in

this series, and the Vols have proven a lot

more with a respectable road loss at Cal and a

blowout over Southern Miss than the Gators

have with their massacres of two outmanned

foes. Simply too many points. Florida by

only 1

4

@Washington (+4) over Ohio State

Selection and analysis by Kevin Oâ€™Neill

Iâ€™d love to take a mulligan on my â€œgo againstâ€ call

on the Washington Huskies in the preseason annual,

and I think it is safe to say that this is the first time I

have ever changed my name against a â€œgo againstâ€

team so quickly, as we used the Huskies on the late

phones in their 24-10 win over Boise State. Quite

simply, Jake Locker is everything he is cracked up to

be. Locker struggled with his accuracy early in

preseason practice but he has been very sharp as of

late. He is very fast, and is a strong 225-pounds.

He has a for an arm and is every bit the modern

prototype of a quarterback he was made out to be.

Any time youâ€™ve got a redshirt freshman starting

there is going to be a concern about

decisionmaking. Locker did make a couple of

mistakes, (lost a fumble and had an interception on

Saturday) keep in mind that Boise State has an

excellent coaching staff and they prepared for a long

time for that game. Every look in the book was

thrown Lockerâ€™s way and the youngster, for the

most part, was successful. But Washington is

properly protective of their young quarterback (with

a lead they were very conservative in the second

half against Boise).

And thereâ€™s a lot to like about Washingtonâ€™s defense

as well. Saturday was only the second time since

2000 that the Broncos have been held to 10 points

or less. Washingtonâ€™s front seven on defense is very,

very good and the defensive backfield has been

better than expected. Senior cornerback Roy Lewis

had an interception, three passes defended, and an

interception on Saturday. And you have to wonder

how ready the Buckeyes are to attack a pass

defense in their first road game. Remember that

Troy Smith, Antonio Pittman, Ted Ginn, Jr, and

Anthony Gonzalez are all playing on Sundays these

days. Ohio State is relying upon a lot of newcomers

to make plays for them and this group has proven

nothing in their home friendlies against Youngstown

State and Akron. Offensive coordinator Jim

Bollman has got to be tearing his hair out at the

penetration gained by opposing defensive lines and

the lack of playmaking ability shown by his offense

so far.

Just with the win over Boise, Washington is more

proven than Ohio State at this point. Thereâ€™s

certainly more talent up and down the roster on the

Buckeyes, but with this long trip, in this spot, the

Huskies are a very dangerous opponent. Ty

Willingham was a very good underdog coach at

Stanford and early at Notre Dame, and now he has

the kind of talent that makes for a live dog. Weâ€™re

seeing a lot of shaky efforts from Big Ten teams

while Pac Ten clubs look good. Taking the points

with the Huskies as a home dog is the way to go in

this contest. Washington by 3.

Western Michigan (+20) over @Missouri

Selection and analysis by Kevin Oâ€™Neill

Starter Tim Hiller was yanked from the lineup, but

later replaced Thomas Perigrine again to lead a

Western Michiganâ€™s comeback effort from a 31-7

halftime deficit Saturday night in a 37-27 loss to

Indiana. Hiller did have an INT and a fumble (five

turnovers by the three Bronco quarterbacks) but the

sophomore has shown enough potential that heâ€™ll be

starting this week. Bill Cubit is a fine developer of

quarterbacks and Hiller should benefit from being

the primary guy this week at practice. Western

Michigan does have some offensive talent and

scoring 27 against Indiana and 24 against West

Virginia shows a bit of offensive zip. Jamarko

Simmons has had 14 catches in each of WMUâ€™s first

two games for 302 yards. Brandon West could get a

lot of time as a running back for a lot of BCS schools

and this offense simply has the kind of weapons that

can give Missouri a hard time.

Missouri simply shouldnâ€™t be favored by nearly three

TDâ€™s against any teams with offensive zip. The

Tigers showed that in their opener against Illinois,

where they jetted out to a 23-6 halftime lead, led

37-13 at one point, but allowed the Illini to score 28

points in the 2nd half and they nearly blew that

game in the end. In their 37-25 win over Mississippi

Saturday, the Tigers allowed 229 rushing yards and

305 passing yards. Thatâ€™s over double the yardage

production that Oleâ€™ Miss has averaged since the

start of last season, as few teams have struggled on

offense more than the Rebels. Western Michigan

Coach Cubit is a good offensive strategist and heâ€™ll

have little trouble designing ways to come up with

effective ways to attack this forgiving Missouri stop

unit.

Obviously, Western Michigan giving up nearly 100

points in their first two games doesnâ€™t inspire

confidence, but West Virginia can be nearly

impossible to defend when theyâ€™re cranking and

WMUâ€™s offense repeatedly put the D in tough

situations against Indiana on Saturday. It would be

best if safety Louis Delmas is back from injury, as

QB Chase Daniel and RB Tony Temple lead a very

potent Mizzou offense. But Missouri simply

shouldnâ€™t be favored by nearly three TDâ€™s against

any teams with offensive zip. Take the points as

Western Michigan is capable of trading points with

this Tiger bunch, and even if Missouri gets out to a

lead, theyâ€™ve shown a propensity to ease up in that

situation while Western Michigan showed a lot of

resilience in their comeback effort Saturday.

Missouri by only 14.

Next Week: A comp phone from Matty Baiungo

and Erik Scheponik. Call Dave Fobareâ€™s comp phone

for free selections at 770-618-8700.

5

@California (â€“33Â½) over Louisiana Tech

Selection and analysis by Dave Fobare

Louisiana Tech extended itself in a thrilling 45-

44 overtime loss to Hawaii last week. Tech had

clearly been ning for the Rainbows. The

previous week versus Div-IAA lightweight

Central Arkansas the Bulldogs kept their

offense under wraps and only garnered 4.5

yards per play en route to a 28-7 win. Its

unlikely they have much left in the tank to

battle a superior California team on the road.

In fact, all college football teams that suffer a

1-3 point loss as faves of 14 or more cover just

42% of the time the following week.

California comes off a 34-28 road win but ATS

loss over Colorado State. The Bears' defensive

stats in that game are a bit deceiving. A

cursory look at the boxscore indicates the

Rams put up big passing numbers against Cal,

garnering 301 yards on just 30 pass attempts.

Considering Louisiana Tech's good offensive

effort last week the casual observer might

worry they could duplicate that effort this

week. That would be misleading, as California

gave up 134 of those passing yards on just 6

pass attempts in the fourth quarter AFTER Cal

had put the game out of reach with a 34-14

margin. On Colorado State's first 29 passing

plays while the affair was still in contention,

they gained just 167 gross yards and suffered

five sacks. The Bears' defense had the game

well in hand.

California also benefits from a 37-12 ATS Game

3 "big favorite" system that has covered by an

average of 7 points per game. The Bears fall

under powerful additional qualifiers thanks to

being at home and being forewarned by

Louisiana Tech's excellent offensive

performance last week. These qualifiers bring

the system up to a 21-2 ATS mark.

In his tenure at California Jeff Tedford has not

extended much effort to punish weak

opponents and has a poor ATS mark as a big

favorite. But it would be hard not to roll up a

big margin in a spot tailor made for a blowout

against an opponent that put all of its effort

into the previous game. Take the Bears to

maul Louisiana Tech. California by 38.

NFL

Sunday, September 16th, 2007

@Titans (+7Â½) over Colts

Selection and analysis by Kevin Oâ€™Neill

Indianapolis looked terrific on Thursday night

against the Saints, but they should have. The

defending Super Bowl champions continue to prove

that when they open the following season it is a

very positive situation for them. Super Bowl champs

have been covering machines when they open the

season. But they then drop off. Letâ€™s look at the

rest of the first half of the season. The past five

Super Bowl champions are 13-22 (37%) after their

opener until the midpoint of the season. In 2004,

defending champion New England went 5-2 to the

spread in games 2 through 8. So when you take

away that â€œteam on a missionâ€ the other four most

recent champs are a dreadful 8-20 to the number.

The reasons are numerous. Satisfied players,

jealousy, the desire for the big contract replacing

the previous yearâ€™s team unity, opponents ning

for them every week, and bloodthirsty crowds on

the road combine to make the fade understandable.

This yearâ€™s Colts outfit looks to be fairly together,

and in Tony Dungy have a man who has kept their

focus. But theyâ€™ve had significant injuries on both

lines and the defensive line was far from a strength

to start with. The Colts had the worst run defense

in the league last year and the Titans ran for 282

yards on Sunday. As that stat suggests, their 13-10

win in Jacksonville was not fluky. Tennessee

outgained the Jaguars by 78 yards and enjoyed a

22-13 edge in first downs. 15 of the Titans first

downs occurred on the ground. This team was

pretty dominant on both sides of the line of

scrimmage. As good as the Colts D looked on

Thursday night, it appears as though Norm Chow

has really got the pieces in place that he wants.

Heâ€™s got a great offensive mind and weâ€™ll expect that

he will be able to scheme for a lighting-quick Colts

defense that is somewhat undersized.

Now the Titans head back to Nashville and will have

an appreciative crowd on their side. They worked

magic down the stretch last year by winning six

straight before a closing loss to New England, with

all six being straight up wins as underdogs. They

won some of those in lucky fashion, getting

outgained in 3 of 6, including an improbably win

over Jacksonville in which they were outgained 396-

98 (not a misprint). It doesnâ€™t seem like theyâ€™ll need

that kind of help this year, as they were as solid as

can be on both sides of the ball Sunday. Vince

Young can only be improved in year 2 and he was

tough enough to deal with last year. Letâ€™s take the

points against a Colts team that history suggests will

struggle to cover pointspreads in the next few

weeks. Colts by only 1.

6

Texans (+6Â½) over @Carolina

Selection and analysis by Erik Scheponik

Carolina cost me in these pages last week,

showing their bite as an underdog is as deadly

as ever. However, Iâ€™ll fade them again this

week, in a role that has not been so much to

their liking. They are 9-17-1 against the

spread the last 4 seasons as a home favorite,

including 2-9 against winning teams and 3-12

when favored by between 4 and 7 points. That

certainly was an impressive win over the Rams

in the Dome, but it appears to have inflated

the line and the public will not doubt be all

over Carolina as it is easier for them to make

the connection to the Panthersâ€™ recent playoff

teams and say â€œCarolinaâ€™s backâ€, then it is for

them to fathom that the Texans can actually be

a competitive team this year. However, with

the Texansâ€™ 4 win leap and improvements as

the â€™06 season progressed, as well as some key

offseason acquisitions, I believe the latter to be

a stronger probability.

Ahman Green may not be the back he was 5 years

ago, but he still can be very productive, and the

combination of he and Ron Dayne give Gary Kubiak

the running threat his offense desperately needs.

During the second half of the season last year, the

Texans quietly went for 123 yards per game on the

ground, including 188 and 191 performances,

numbers reminiscent of Kubiakâ€™s Denver offenses.

Green will help them improve on that, and if Matt

Schaub plays like he did against Kansas City, this

offense will go from 28th last season to middle of the

pack this year. That may not impress some, but

realize that after a brutal start last season, the

defense allowed only 304 ypg over their last 13

contests, which would rank them just outside the

top 10 over the course of the whole season. They

went 4-4 in the second half of the season with upset

wins over Jacksonville and Indianapolis, and neither

of those wins could be categorized as phony.

This is an AFC team taking nearly a touchdown from

an NFC team, and if that AFC team is not Oakland or

Cleveland then we must at least give the points a

look. Not to mention that Carolina was only a .500

club last year, so Iâ€™m not ready to dub them the

cream of the NFC just yet. They also may be

looking ahead a bit here with 3 straight division

games on deck. If they play to their usual form as a

home favorite, the Texans may sneak up and bite

them. Carolina by only 1

@Detroit (-3) over Minnesota

Selection and analysis by Dave Fobare

The Lions opened the season in impressive fashion

with a 36-21 come from behind win at Oakland.

That win marks just the third road win in General

Manager Matt Millen's tenure in Detroit. To get there

though, the Lions had to blow a 17-0 second half

lead. Then when the Raiders took their first lead at

21-20 midway through the fourth quarter Detroit

took their play into a higher gear and rolled over the

hosts convincingly. QB Jon Kitna drove Detroit down

the field with ease for what proved to be the

winning touchdown.

Coaching legend Bill Walsh used to say that the

most important characteristic of a winning football

team was an effective pass rush in the fourth

quarter. When the Raiders got the ball back down

26-21 Detroit demonstrated that with a flourish.

First a strong rush up the middle forced Josh

McCown into throwing a ball right into the arms of

DE Dewayne White, who had peeled off the line in a

zone blitz coverage. That led to a Detroit field goal,

extending the lead to 29-21. Down by just eight the

Raiders still had a glimmer of hope, until Dewayne

White and DT Shaun Rogers got their next crack at

McCown. On the next possession White stripped the

ball from McCown while Rogers smothered him.

White managed to recover the fumble himself. To

further drive home who the superior team was RB

Tatum Bell ripped through the Oakland defense to

score a rare rushing TD from 14 yards out. Thus

capped Detroit's most impressive win years.

Detroit still showed plenty of weaknesses. Too many

of their rushing yards came from gimmicky plays,

though the final two drives featured nothing but

straight ahead playcalling from Mike Martz. The

Lions' secondary played very soft all afternoon,

allowing the Raiders to take whatever they wanted

underneath, provided they could keep the Detroit

pass rush at bay. But overall the Lions showed

marked improvement from their 2006 campaign.

Detroit has a number of favorable tech systems in

their corner, including a 193-132 ATS system that

features teams with a sizeable advantage in yards

per play. The Lions also have a 98-53 ATS divisional

revenge system in their corner thanks to a 30-20

loss to the Vikings last December.

At the end of last season Lions' head coach Rod

Marinelli pronounced himself pleased, because he

had found a group of players on the roster that

would fight hard no matter the score. Those players

proved him right last week. They'll do it again this

week. Detroit by 10.

7

@Cardinals (+) over Seahawks

Selection and analysis by Matty Baiungo

Arizona is a team that looks to be on the

upswing, and this could be their breakout year.

Former Pittsburgh offensive coordinator Ken

Whisenhunt takes over as head coach, and he

should right the ship after the Denny Green

fiasco. Whisenhunt has put emphasis on this

first home game: â€œI mean certainly weâ€™ve

already talked about our first home game

against another division opponentâ€¦ to be at

home and have a city be excited and behind us

is something that we really would look forward

too," says the new coach.

Their offense is loaded as QB Matt Leinart is

now in his 2nd year and he will be more

effective. He has a ton of weapons in the skill

positions at his disposal to help him out.

Edgerrin James will be running behind a

fullback for the first time in his career, and that

should take some pressure off an offensive line

that has struggled in recent years. The wide

receiving corps is one of the best in the league

with the trio of Larry Fitzgerald, Anquan Boldin,

and Bryant Johnson. Last year, they Cardinals

put up 20 points per game, but that number

should improve provided Leinart continues his

progression.

Seattleâ€™s defense played well in their opening

win against Tampa Bay holding the Bucs to just

2 field goals while allowing less than 300 yards.

But the area of concern looks to be their

secondary that allowed the combination of Jeff

Garcia and Josh McCown to complete 20 of 31

passes. Arizona is light years better than

Tampa Bay in the passing game, and the

Seahawks can ill afford to allow a similar

number. But the here is that they will

because theyâ€™ve shown a propensity to play

many high scoring games on road grass. And

that means their defense, which is based on

speed, loses a step on natural turf which allows

opposing teams to score more on them than if

they were playing at home on the fake stuff.

Seattle is on a 2-5 spread run when laying

points on the road, and two of those five losses

have come at Arizona with the Cards winning

both of them straight-up. Arizona by 3.

Monday, September 17th, 2007

Redskins (+7) over @Eagles

Selection and analysis by Kevin Oâ€™Neill

We had a push in this space going against the

Redskins, and when looking at the box score,

we may have been lucky to get that.

Washington outgained Miami 400-273,

outrushing them 191-66. Thatâ€™s some strong

work on the line of scrimmage against a team

that is built to stop the run. "They've got a

good blocking team. They did a great job up

front. I'll give them that," Dolphinsâ€™ veteran

linebacker Zach Thomas said. The Redskins

have made a lot of personnel changes on

defense and it was successful. "I bet there

won't be a lot of people to run on that defense

with (rookie safety Laron) Landry in the box,"

Dolphins Coach Cam Cameron said after the

game.

The Eagles lost in Green Bay due to a pair of

punt returning disasters that handed the game

to the Packers on a silver platter. Phillyâ€™s

defense played well (though against an offense

that really seems to lack a lot at the

playmaking positions), but the offense did not.

While the Packers seem to have a pretty stout

defense, Donovan McNabb just didnâ€™t look

good. He seems to have trouble getting away

from pressure and just looks kind of old all the

sudden. Age and injuries may be catching up

with him, and at the very least their turning

him into basically a pocket passer and not the

threat with his mobility that he has been in the past.

Or at least thatâ€™s what it looked like on Sunday. And

the punt receiving problems caused a world of

criticism in Philly, as they entered the game with

very little experience at the position.

Though we understand that the Eagles are a

desperate team that will do anything to avoid falling

to 0-2, and the Redskins arenâ€™t high on the list of

teams you would expect to handle prosperity, this

number is just too high. Right tackle Jon Jansen

suffered a broken ankle on Saturday, and that

doesnâ€™t help the Redskins cause. But rookie

Stephon Heyer out of Maryland looks like a real

keeper at that position. This looks to be a defensive

battle with scoring at a premium. Weâ€™ll look to take

what appears to be a pretty generous spread in

what figures to be a close, low scoring game.

Eagles by only 1.

8

Systems & Strategies

Note: Frequently the systems that have come in have some contrast with our Max selections.

The systems are created independently of our selections and this will occur from time to time.

In my mind systems are more valuable than trends. A system can be true for the entirety of

either college or pro football. Trends focus on single teams. Take systems with a grain of salt,

but they can prove to be valuable tools in a handicapperâ€™s arsenal. Sometimes they last for a

while. Sometimes they turn around. Always ask yourself, â€œdoes this make sense?â€ when

deciding on the validity of a system. Systems have never been the basis for my handicapping

but others enjoy success for them and this page is a popular feature in the Max.

Each week weâ€™ll have systems and strategies that are true for the entirety of either college

football or the NFL from respected guest handicappers.

NFL System from Dave Fobare, phone 770-618-8700

Between a Rock and a Hard Place: In Game 2, play against an NFL team that lost the first

game by 10 or more points, is favored today by 3 or more points, and must play the following

week on the road.

Record since 1991: 23-8 ATS (74.1%)

This weekâ€™s application: Green Bay (play against New York Giants), San Francisco (play

against St. Louis)

College System from Nellyâ€™s Sportsline, http://www.nellysports.com [nellysports.com]">www.nellysports.com, phone 608.283.3132.

Letdown Time: Play against any Game 3 NCAA road underdog of seven or more if they are 2-0

S/U and were a double-digit favorite in the previous game.

Pointspread Record Since 1988: 21-7, 75%

This weekâ€™s applications: Georgia Tech (play against BC), Boise State (play against Wyoming)

College System from Marc Lawrence, http://www.playbook.com [playbook.com]">www.playbook.com, 1.800.321.7777

Ups and Downs: Play against any NFL Game Two team off an ATS win of more than 20 points

in Game One versus an opponent that is seeking revenge.

Pointspread Record since 1980: 20-8-1 (72%)

This weekâ€™s application: Buffalo Bills (play against Pittsburgh)

Listen Up: Kevin appears on Marc Lawrenceâ€™s nationally syndicated radio program and Steve

Czabanâ€™s program on Fox Sports Radio.

posted by phantom

Sept. 14 2007 5:17pm
0 likes

Sports Marketwatch - Early Moves Edition

NFL Week 2

9/14/2007 11:01 AM EST

by Daniel Fabrizio

SportsInsights

Welcome to this week's edition of the Sports Marketwatch, where Daniel Fabrizio, founder of SportsInsights, gives sports fans unprecedented insight into the NFL point-spread market. If you ever wanted to know what was really happening on the sportsbook side, you now have an all-access pass with Sports Marketplace!

Every week he speaks directly with the line managers at some of the sports betting industryâ€™s largest sportsbooks about which games the public is chasing and the Sharps are pounding. Dan takes a look at whatâ€™s in store for this week in the NFL.

Sports Marketwatch â€“ NFL Week 2

Recapping Last Week

NFL Week 1 went the way of the Square bettor with favorites going 9-2. It appeared some teams could have used an extra week of pre-season. The 1pm games started the slide for the sportsbooks, but Denver and Jacksonville failing to cover and a lot of blow outs helped break up teasers and parlay action. The 4pm games and late game put the nail in the coffin. It was an ugly day of payouts for the sportsbooks when they opened the doors on Monday.

Our Games to Watch started the season off posting a big goose egg, going 0-3. Always remember that one weekend doesnâ€™t make or break a season. Consistent winning means winning over an entire season. Anyone can go 5-0 but very few professional sports bettors can achieve a winning percentage above 55% for an entire season. Readers from last year will note that we started the season off slow, going 1-2 in week 1 and week 2. We ended the NFL Regulars season with a (31-18 = 63.3%) record. Itâ€™s about patience and believing in your research.

SportsInsights analysis shows that in games with over 65% of the action on one side, the public had a monster weekend, 7-2. SportsInsights Games to Watch analysis fell flat on its face going 0-3.

This Weekâ€™s NFL Action

This week, weâ€™re hoping that â€œour dogsâ€ are awake and ready for some action. In our last article, we mentioned four major criteria we use to judge line value. These factors are so important to getting an edge that we wanted to highlight them again:

â€¢ Public overwhelmingly on one side

â€¢ Home dog

â€¢ Drastic line movement caused by Public money

â€¢ Negative press

We anticipate Indianapolis, New Orleans, Pittsburgh, Dallas, and Cincinnati to be the most â€œlopsided-betâ€ games of the week. Each one of these teams is receiving well over 90% of the bets placed. Visit SportsInsights to view live wagering statistics from multiple online sportsbooks.

NFL Sports Marketwatch â€“ Games to Watch

Dallas Cowboys vs Miami Dolphins

I circled this game because it appears to the untrained eye to be a soft line, which is causing the early Public money to pound Dallas. The line has moved from Dallas -3 to -4. Every week there are typically 2 or 3 games with what appear to be soft lines. These are the games the sportsbooks make a killing on. If it looks too easy, we always take the other side. The odds makers in Vegas know what they are doing. The line should be-3 but Square money has pushed the line to -4 giving the value better an excellent Home Dog play on Miami +4.

Dallas was already an early season Public favorite. Their manhandling of the New York Giants in week 1 only added fuel to fire. Watching the highlights and listening to the media machine, youâ€™d hear nothing but â€œAmericaâ€™s Teamâ€ is back.

The sportsbook I spoke with took a massive amount of Square money on Dallas as soon as they posted a line. They quickly retreated to -3.5, with a lot of Square sportsbooks shading the line to -4. Most of the linemen I spoke with believed they could have posted -6 or even -7 and still received a lot of Dallas action.

Currently, an amazing 90%-94% of the bets are coming in on Dallas. The Public is betting this game like they know the scores. Unfortunately, Iâ€™m still waiting for my advance copy of Mondayâ€™s sports section. Weâ€™re taking the +4 value on a Home Dog the Public money has given us.

Miami +4

Indianapolis Colts vs Tennessee Titans

Indy looked great against New Orleans in week 1. Indy will continue to be a huge Public team until someone finds a game plan to beat them. We like the Tennessee Titans for the same reasons weâ€™re taking the Miami Dolphins.

â€¢ Public overwhelmingly on Indy (85%-90%)

â€¢ Home dog (+7.5)

â€¢ Drastic line movement caused by Public money (-7 to -7.5)

The early Public action has made Tennessee a tremendous Home Dog value getting +7.5. Tennessee picked up right where they left off last season. They showed a lot of grit going into Jacksonville and coming out with a win. Early Public money has pushed the line from -7 to -7.5 at a lot Square sportsbook most notably Bodog. Weâ€™re taking Tennessee +7.5 and looking for our Home Dogs to start barking!

Tennessee +7.5 (NewBodog)

Cincinnati Bengals vs Cleveland Browns

The question is not â€œhow good is Cincyâ€ but rather â€œhow bad is Cleveland?â€ Frequent readers of this column know that every week you need bad teams to do good things. It sounds easy enough but try putting your money where your mouth is. Who in their right mind would put money on Cleveland this weekâ€¦no matter what line they put on the game? But it is this psychological bias that makes Cleveland an attractive play. Itâ€™s about identifying value. Over the course of an entire season, continually getting an extra half point such as +7 instead of +6.5 â€“ will add an extra few points to your winning percentage. This can be the difference between long-term winning and losing.

Iâ€™m taking Cleveland +7 at home for the exact reason everyone is betting against them.

Cleveland +7

So, hereâ€™s a wrap-up of SportsInsights analysis for this weekâ€™s Games to Watch for NFL Week 2.

Games to Watch (0-3)

Miami +4

Tennessee +7.5

Cleveland +7

It should be another exciting NFL Weekend. Keep Sports Marketwatch picks handy and your browser pointed to SportsInsights for the latest real-time updates, using our exclusive Sports Investing tools.

Iâ€™ll be back next Friday with the new edition of the Sports Marketwatch.

Enjoy the games!

Daniel Fabrizio

President

posted by phantom

Sept. 14 2007 9:03pm

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