NFL WEEK 1
WEEK 1
NEW ORLEANS at INDIANAPOLIS(6) 51.5...
no 1-7 under in regular season opener s 99
no 11-0-1 ats in 1st of b2b road games s 99
ind 0-4 under in regular season opener when o/u line is 45 or more s 99
ind 6-1-1 ats in regular season opener last 8 years
...over last 2 seasons there were 14 reg sea games where the closing total was 50+ pts...these games went 2-12 under.
....NEW ORLEANS and UNDER 51.5...
KANSAS CITY at HOUSTON(3) 38...
kc 11-5-1 ats in 1st of b2b road games s 01
kc/hou series has road team going 3-0 ats s 03 with an ave total of 54pts when playing in houston
DENVER(3) at BUFFALO 37...
den 8-1 ats before hosting oakland s 98
buf 1-8 under in regular season opener s 98
...DENVER and UNDER...
PITTSBURGH(4.5) at CLEVELAND 36.5...
pit 7-2 ats as div road favs s 02
pit covered last 7 straight vs cle
cle 0-4 ats last 4 at home vs pit
cle 1-6-1 ats in reg sea openers s 99
cle 1-7-1 ats before playing cinn s 02
series fav has covered last 6 straight
...PITTSBURGH...
TENNESSEE at JACKSONVILLE(6.5) 37.5...
jax 6-1 ats at home in reg sea openers s 95
jax 8-0 ats in reg sea openers last 8 straight years s 95
series su winner is 19-2 ats s 97
...JACKSONVILLE...
CAROLINA at ST.LOUIS(1.5) 42.5...
car 3-1 ats on the road in reg sea opener s 95
car 5-1 ats as dogs in reg sea openers s 95
car 1-10 under in reg sea openers last 11 straight years s 96
st.l 1-5-1 ats in last 7 reg sea openers
st.l 1-5 under in reg sea openers s 01
...CAROLINA and UNDER...
MIAMI at WASHINGTON(3) 35...
wash 2-7 under before playing mnf s 97
wash 1-8 ats before playing mnf s 97
wash 2-10-1 ats in 1st fav role of the reg sea s 94
...MIAMI...
NEW ENGLAND(6.5) at NY JETS 41...
ne 7-2 ats as div road favs s 03
ne 13-3-1 ats in 1 game road stands s 02
ne covered last 8 straight in ny s 99
series road teams have went 13-3-1 ats s 99
series games in sept have averaged 34pts s 00
...NEW ENGLAND...
TAMPA BAY at SEATTLE(6) 41...
tb 2-14 under in reg sea openers s 91
tb/sea series has averaged 23pts per game s 96
...UNDER...
NY GIANTS at DALLAS(6) 44...
ny 14-5 ats on the road when total is 42 or more s 02
dal 1-6 ats as div home favs s 04
in series only 3 of last 17 games in dallas exceeded 41pts
pt total in last 12 series games in dallas averaged 34pts
...NEW YORK and UNDER...
BALTIMORE at CINCINNATI(2.5) 40.5...
bal 2-10 under in reg sea openers s 95
cin 3-10 ats at home before b2b road games s 00
series fav has covered 12 of last 15
system play...home teams are 10-2 su and 11-1 ats on mnf in reg sea opener if priced from +6.5 to -2.5 s 85
ARIZONA at SAN FRANCISCO(3) 45...
ari 8-2 over in reg sea openers s 97
sf covered last 4 straight reg sea openers
only 1 of last 5 series matchups in sf has totalled less than 46pts
...OVER...
***EXTRA POINTS***
philadelphia 14-2 over before playing washington s 99.
atlanta covered 8 of last 9 reg sea openers.
straight-up loser in superbowl has went 0-7 in the following years reg sea opener s 00.
oakland is 0-6 ats before visiting denver s 01
posted by phantom
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Pointwise
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NFL KEY RELEASES
SAN DIEGO over Chicago RATING: 2
PHILADELPHIA over Green Bay RATING: 3
SEATTLE over Tampa Bay RATING: 4
CAROLINA over St Louis RATING: 4
JACKSONVILLE over Tennessee RATING: 5
posted by phantom
Sept. 4 2007 3:07pm -
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THE CONFIDENTIAL Kick-Off
CKO Vol. 46 September 6 - 10, 2007 No. 2
Confidential Kick-Off!! The Gold Sheet!!
America's Handicapping Leaders For 50 Seasons!
11 *KANSAS STATE over San Jose St.
Late Score Forecast:
*KANSAS STATE 38 - San Jose State 7
It would be a mistake to gauge current status of these respective programs
based simply on their results in openers. Granted, both tasted defeat last
week, but similarities end there. That's because KSU's feisty effort at
Auburn confirmed reports from Big XII scouts that Wildcat roster has
sufficiently re-stocked with athletes under 2nd-year HC Prince. And if KSU's
blitz packages could keep Tiger QB Cox off balance for most of night, imagine
what havoc Cats might wreak against SJSU "O" that's forced back to drawing
board after hugely disappointing performance (mere 7 FDs) in blowout loss at
Arizona State. Meanwhile, after dealing with Auburn's voracious stop unit,
KSU soph QB Freeman and Wildcat infantry get to enjoy manpower advantage just
as Sun Devils did vs. undersized Spartan "D" at Tempe (33 FDs and 520
yards!).
10 *PENN STATE over Notre Dame
Late Score Forecast:
*PENN STATE 40 - Notre Dame 13
Penn State's offense picked up right where it left off at the end of last
season when sr. QB Anthony Morelli demonstrated why he was one of the most
prized recruits in the country a few years ago. Joe Paterno has surrounded
Morelli with speedy, talented weapons, and the Nittany Lion offensive line is
improved over last season despite losing star OT Levi Brown to the NFL. Penn
State has some technical edges in this game, as Paterno's bunch has covered
11 of last 15 laying double digits, and Lions figure to be especially focused
after absorbing a 41-17 shellacking at South Bend last season. Notre Dame is
obviously rebuilding, but the inability to slow GT RB Tashard Choice (196 YR)
indicates that Irish d.c. Corwin Brown's new 3-4 scheme might not be the cure
for an inexperience defensive line.
10 SOUTH CAROLINA over *Georgia
Late Score Forecast:
SOUTH CAROLINA 23 - *Georgia 17
SEC sources report that shrewd HC Spurrier stayed pretty vanilla in
lackluster 28-14 win vs. La.-Lafayette week ago. But Spurrier-who suffered
his 1st shutout in 197 games in 18-0 whitewash vs. Georgia year ago-will have
the full "fun and gun" package installed for unsuspended QB Mitchell, who
benefits from a stronger ground attack this time (with RBs Boyd & M. Davis)
after generating just 22 YR in '06 meeting. Meanwhile, don't expect Dawg QB
Stafford to have much time to survey field behind a young OL unable to
consistently pick up 'Cocks well-designed blitz packages. And a deeper, more
physical Carolina front 7 will keep UGA's quality RBs (198 YR in '06) under
control. And keep in mind, poised, tough-minded 'Cocks are just a blocked FG
away (vs. Florida LY) from reeling off 6 straight SEC road wins. Make that
7.
10 *ARKANSAS STATE over Memphis
Late Score Forecast:
*ARKANSAS STATE 26 - Memphis 20
CKO sources surprised Memphis is favored at all in this southern rivalry,
considering veteran, smartly-coached Arkansas State actually outgained
powerful Texas in confidence-building 21-13 loss in Austin week ago (Indians
also missed 2 FGs!). Memphis made valiant comeback try in 23-21 setback vs.
Ole Miss (trailed 21-0 at H), but Tigers could be missing ace RB Doss (knee
injury in 4th Q...on crutches following game). In any case, it's unlikely
Memphis' pass-happy spread (61 attempts vs. Rebels!) converts many big plays
vs. Indian 2ndary that pulled down 19 ints. LY & passed a major test vs.
Longhorns Colt McCoy. Meanwhile ASU's multi-talented QB Leonard (accounted
for 327 yds. vs. UT) & his balanced attack find seams in suspect Tiger
defense, just as Leonard did in LY's 26-23 upset (425 yds.; won on 56-yd.
Hail Mary pass on final play!). Roberts' squad covers its 5th in past 6
meetings.
10 MIAMI over *Washington
Late Score Forecast:
MIAMI 20 - *Washington 13
(Sunday, September 9)
CKO insiders from Florida report that head coach Cam Cameron has restored
faith and confidence in the Miami attack with his clever designs and
personnel moves (most importantly, QB Trent Green-a former Redskin by the
way). RB Ronnie Brown has had a fine preseason, and former Charger RB Jesse
Chatman has been a revelation in camp when spelling him. Scouts say team has
taken a liking to the encouraging Cameron after previously hanging the
nickname of "Nick-tator" on the intense, control-everything Nick Saban. And
free-agent addition OLB Joey Porter (arthro knee surgery in camp) reportedly
ready to contribute in opener. That means lots of pressure on young
Washington QB Jason Campbell, who missed time in summer due to a knee sprain.
TOTALS: OVER (43) in the Chicago-San Diego game-Careless turnovers by Rex,
combined with league-leading number of takeaways by defense helped Chicago
produce 11-4-1 "over" mark in regular season LY...OVER (44) in N.Y.
Giants-Dallas game-Potent receiving corps of both teams, plus injuries in
both secondaries, point to lots of production on Sunday Night Football.
HONORABLE MENTION (Nine-Rated Games): RUTGERS (-16) vs. Navy (Friday
Night)-Ray Rice and Scarlet Knight offense is way too much for the rebuilding
Navy defense; few teams defend the Middie option as well as Rutgers...CENTRAL
MICHIGAN (-3.5) vs. Toledo-MAC champion Chippewas not nearly as bad as the
52-7 whoopin' they absorbed in Kansas; Toledo defense was way too lenient in
home opener vs. Purdue...OREGON (+8) at Michigan-Ducks' speed on offense
should exploit same flaws in Wolverine defense that Appalachian State
did...LA.-LAFAYETTE (+1) vs. Ohio-Ragin' Cajuns played better than expected
at South Carolina; boast more trickery on offense than Bobcats...BALTIMORE
(+2.5) at Cincinnati (Monday Night)-Cincy has three players suspended (WR C.
Henry, MLB O. Thurman, DE F. Rucker); Raven offense should get a big spark
from new RB McGahee.
posted by phantom
Sept. 4 2007 5:02pm -
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THE GOLD SHEET
THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 6
*INDIANAPOLIS 30 - New Orleans 28--Will take points in this go-with vs. go-with game. Improved Saints were 8-3 as a dog in 2006's revival season, while Indy was 7-3 vs. spread at home. Both Peyton Manning (3 TDP in first half of third exhibition) and Drew Brees (hit 35 of last 39 exhibition attempts!) were in prime form near end of preseason. And, while key S Bob Sanders healthy and ready to go, Colts' multiple losses on defense (at least six frontline players) should help Brees, Bush & Deuce keep matters interesting. TV--NBC (03-Indianapolis -2 55-21...SR: N. Orleans 5-4)
SUNDAY, SEPTEMBER 9
HOUSTON 20 - Kansas City 13--Houston only 4-6 as a favorite in its 5-year history. But the accumulation of negatives on K.C. side seems to put inordinate pressure on former holdout RB Larry Johnson (only 3 rushes in preseason) to carry the load. QB Damon Huard (5-3 SU as a starter LY) barely played in exhibitions (only 9 atts.) and has a sore calf. The Chiefs no longer have a premium OL. DE Jared Allen (7½ sacks) is suspended. Receiver help for TE Tony Gonzalez is not apparent. Meanwhile, Matt Schaub, Ahman Green, and rookie WR/KR Jacoby Jones (TDs via PR, KOR & pass in preseason) offering hope for Texan offense (17 ppg LY).
(05-Kansas City -7 45-17...SR: Kansas City 2-1)
BUFFALO 17 - Denver 16--Bills 7-3 as a dog LY, but they're counting very heavily on rookie RB Marshawn Lynch to balance their offense. Denver now super-quick at the corners on defense with the addition of Dre' Bly. Still, young QB Jay Cutler (2-3) has only 5 career starts, while J.P. Losman played every down LY for Buffalo on offense. Broncos' banged-up OL, RB & receiver platoons help point toward "under," even with Bills' depth issues at DE. (05-Denver -8' 28-17...SR: Buffalo 18-14-1)
Pittsburgh 26 - CLEVELAND 10--Pittsburgh 6-0-1 vs. spread last 7 in series, so will side with Mike Tomlin in his debut as HC over Cleveland, which again has problems in its OL (RT Ryan Tucker 4-game suspension; would-be C LeCharles Bentley is still out; check status of LG Steinbach's knee ). Such is not the case with Steeler OL & RB Willie Parker. Will Tomlin, a WR in college, unleash the no-huddle, spread offense he installed for Ben Roethliesberger in camp? Will Charlie Frye (10 TDs, 17 ints. LY) dump the ball repeatedly to Kellen Winslow II, as reported (Rob Chudzinski, his college position coach at Miami, is now the Browns' off. coord.)?
(06-Pitt 24-CLE. 20...P.23-15 C.29/99 P.20/77 P.25/44/3/261 C.17/27/0/203 P.0 C.2)
(06-PITT 27-Cle. 7...P.26-11 P.52/303 C.11/18 C.21/37/1/276 P.11/21/0/225 P.1 C.1)
(06-Pittsburgh -3' 24-20, PITTSBURGH -7 27-7...SR: EVEN 55-55)
OVER THE TOTAL JACKSONVILLE 28 - Tennessee 19--Last weekend's abrupt release of Byron Leftwich clouds the picture a bit, but certainly don't mind trying the "over" with Tennessee team that exceeded the total 13 of 16 times LY. Vince Young reading defenses better, while Titan OL & receivers appear underrated. Defense, however, is still a work in progress, and Fred Taylor, Maurice Jones-Drew, and the mobile David Garrard are well-equipped to exploit. Jags 77 total points vs. Tenn. last 2 on this field.
(06-JACK. 37-Tenn. 7...J.17-14 J.30/173 T.32/108 J.12/22/0/169 T.15/36/3/154 J.0 T.0)
(06-TENN. 24-Jack. 17...J.23-5 J.40/202 T.16/41 J.22/37/3/194 T.8/15/0/57 T.0 J.1)
(06-JACKSONVILLE -9' 37-7, TENNESSEE +3' 24-17...SR: Tennessee 14-11)
ST. LOUIS 27 - Carolina 20--Remember, Rams were mostly using a repaired OL in 2006 when Steven Jackson racked up a league-leading 2334 yards rushing and receiving. Now, the front wall is healthier and deeper, and Jackson has a fine backup/FB in rookie Brian Leonard. St. Louis defense (CB F. Brown suspended) will have its hands full with Carolina WR Steve Smith. But if Panthers' OL and QB concerns of LY have been resolved, such was not apparent in the preseason. Dante Hall boosts Rams' return game.
(06-CAR. 15-St. Louis 0...C.20-8 C.43/242 S.8/31 C.13/26/2/169 S.19/34/1/80 C.1 S.1)
(06-CAROLINA -6' 15-0...SR: Carolina 10-7)
Philadelphia 24 - GREEN BAY 16--Until we see proof to the contrary, must give edge to Philly's McNabb-Westbrook combo over G.B.'s Favre-Brandon Jackson (or other RB) duo. McNabb appears ready to pick up where he left off LY (18 TDs, 6 ints.) before his knee injury, and we all have seen how Favre's mentality can by fazed when things aren't going right. He hasn't been a bundle of enthusiasm this summer (the front office didn't open the purse strings to bring in much help), even though third-round pick WR James Jones has been a positive.
(06-PHIL. 31-G. Bay 9...P.23-20 P.27/131 G.28/99 P.17/32/0/267 G.24/47/2/219 P.2 G.1)
(06-PHILADELPHIA -11' 31-9...SR: Green Bay 22-15)
MINNESOTA 19 - Atlanta 12--Which QB is going to make more mistakes, Tarvaris Jackson (0-2 as a starter LY) of the Vikes, or Joey Harrington of the Falcons. Not sure, but will side with the "under" and hope neither coughs up turnovers for easy points. Perhaps the more interesting question, however, is whether Minny prize rookie RB Adrian Peterson will quickly emerge as a dominant NFL force behind fierce-blocking LG Steve Hutchinson. Viking secondary, a liability LY (last in pass defense), is now improved.
(05-ATLANTA -6 30-10...SR: Minnesota 15-9)
Miami 17 - WASHINGTON 13--Clinton Portis sat out the entire preseason for the Redskins, who stayed "vanilla" on offense, while new Miami mentor Cam Cameron unwrapped much more of his playbook (including a Statue of Liberty TD run). Still, Cameron inherits a nasty defense that adds former Steeler LB Joey Porter (knee; says he'll be ready). Even with a new team, Trent Green rates the QB edge over Jason Campbell. Washington defense was last in both sacks and ints. LY! (03-MIAMI -6' 24-23...SR: Miami 7-4)
New England 27 - NY JETS 16--NE 7-1-1 vs. the spread last 9 meetings vs. the Jets, so don't mind giving a shot to ever-so-competent Patriots, with the quick Laurence Maroney at RB and added speed at WR (check status of Randy Moss; hamstring). Insiders say the most valuable additions might turn out to be first-down makers RB Sammie Morris & slot receiver Wes Welker from Miami. DE Richard Seymour and key S Rodney Harrison out for N.E., but, remember, Harrison has missed 19 reg.-season games over the L2Ys.
(06-N. Eng. 24-JETS 17...Ne.24-16 Ne.39/147 Ny.24/51 Ny.22/37/1/286 Ne.15/29/1/211 Ne.1 Ny.0)
(06-Jets 17-N. ENG. 14...Ne.22-19 Ne.25/143 Ny.29/117 Ne.25/37/1/234 Ny.22/33/1/161 Ny.0 Ne.1)
(06-N. ENG. 37-Jets 16...Ne.26-18 Ne.38-158 Ny.16/70 Ny.24/41/1/277 Ne.22/34/0/200 Ne.1 Ny.1)
(06-N. En. -6 24-17, Jets +10' 17-14, N. EN. -9 37-16 (Playoff)...SR: NY Jets 48-46-1)
SEATTLE 24 - Tampa Bay 13--Don't forget that Seattle won its third straight NFC West title LY despite the free-agent loss of top blocker Steve Hutchinson and lingering key injuries suffered by QB Matt Hasselbeck & RB Shaun Alexander. In their brief preseason appearances in 2007, the latter two have looked excellent, and the Seahawk defense has been bolstered in free agency, the draft, and trades. New Bucs' QB Jeff Garcia inherited a strong supporting cast when he stepped in LY with the Eagles; such is not quite the same in Tampa Bay. Bucs "under" 12 of last 16 away.
(06-Sea. 23-T. BAY 7...S.28-15 S.42/132 T.21/110 S.17/29/0/212 T.16/27/0/177 S.1 T.2)
(06-Seattle +3 23-7...SR: Seattle 6-1)
SAN DIEGO 26 - Chicago 23--The Turner brothers (new HC Norv for S.D. and off. coord. Ron for Chicago) calling the plays in this one. And Chargers' LB coach Ron Rivera gets a shot at his old team, which passed him over TY for defensive coordinator. The combination of Chicago's league-leading 44 takeaways on defense and Rex Grossman's mistakes on offense (20 ints., 8 fumbles) helped Chicago go 11-4-1 "over" LY in the regular season. Bears 7-1 SU as a visitor LY, and Lovie says this is his deepest team.
(03-CHICAGO -2 20-7...SR: Chicago 5-4)
OAKLAND 23 - Detroit 10--Rookie HC Lane Kiffin says he might withhold his decision on a QB starter all the way to game day, as recently-acquired Daunte Culpepper played better than expected in the preseason, while former Cardinal and Lion Josh McCown has been working closely with Kiffin the entire offseason. Kiffin appears to have shorn up the porous Raider OL and enlivened LY's moribund offense. And Oakland defense (third in points allowed; first vs. the pass) ready to pick up where it left off. Lions have their own OL woes, QB Kitna tossed 21 ints., and star rookie WR Calvin Johnson is still learning. Oakland "under" 12-4 LY. (03-DETROIT +3 23-13...SR: Oakland 6-3)
*DALLAS 26 - NY Giants 24--Giants 5-0-1 vs. line last 6 meetings, and 5-2-2 "over" last 9 away overall. And both teams have concerns in the secondary, with N.Y. S Will Demps (elbow) through for the season and Dallas CB Terence Newman battling a foot injury. With T.O. healthy, "over" might be the ticket, even with Michael Strahan rejoining team (N.Y. 22-11 with him L3Ys, 3-12 without him; check status). Cowboy coach Wade Phillips ready to unleash DeMarcus Ware as a pass rusher, but Eli Manning showed improvement vs. blitzes in preseason. TV--NBC
(06-Giants 36-DAL. 22...D.21-18 N.39/155 D.21/69 D.21/37/4/310 N.12/26/1/173 N.1 D.0)
(06-Dal. 23-GIANTS 20...N.22-21 N.29/126 D.24/110 N.24/36/0/270 D.20/34/2/255 D.0 N.1)
(06-NY Giants +3' 36-22, Dallas -3' 23-20...SR: Dallas 52-35-2)
MONDAY, SEPTEMBER 10
*Baltimore 23 - CINCINNATI 20--Baltimore's trade for the younger, quicker Willis McGahee to replace Jamal Lewis appears to be a prescient move. And Cincy is shorthanded due to the suspensions of WR Chris Henry, MLB Odell Thurman, DE Frostee Rucker, plus early injury concerns at LB. Thus, will shade Ravens and defense that finished No. 1 in yards, points, interceptions, takeaways, and completion percentage in 2007. Fourth-round pick LB Antwan Barnes (Florida Int'l) moving quickly into the Adalius Thomas role. CABLE TV--ESPN
(06-BALT. 26-Cincy 20...B.22-17 B.38/129 C.22/92 B.21/31/0/245 B.12/26/2/183 B.0 C.1)
(06-CINCY 13-Balt. 7...B.15-14 B.20/89 C.23/67 C.21/32/0/227 B.26/43/0/227 C.0 B.1)
(06-BALTIMORE -3 26-20, CINCINNATI -3 13-7...SR: Baltimore 13-9)
*Arizona 27 - SAN FRANCISCO 26--"Wild" series in recent years, with 6 of the last 7 meetings going "over," and Arizona winning the last 4 SU. Cards 17-6-1 "over" on road L3Ys. Will trend change now that new HC Ken Whisenhunt (will call the Arizona plays) insists Cards will run better? Whisenhunt has told second-year QB Matt Leinart to step up his game. S.F. RB Frank Gore (hand fracture reportedly healed) says he's ready, and Niners have added CB Nate Clements (Buffalo) and rookie LB Patrick Willis (Ole Miss) to defense. TV--ESPN
(06-ARIZ. 34-S. Fran. 27...A.23-19 S.18/107 A.29/84 S.23/40/0/286 A.23/37/0/283 A.1 S.2)
(06-Ariz. 26-S. FRAN. 20...A.21-14 A.41/123 S.12/49 A.18/26/0/249 S.18/29/1/174 A.1 S.1)
(06-ARIZONA -8' 34-27, Arizona +4 26-20...SR: San Francisco 17-14
MONDAY NIGHT HISTORY
Baltimore and Cincinnati on Monday Night
Baltimore is 1-2 straight-up and 2-1 vs. the pointspread on the road on Monday Night Football;
3-1 straight-up and 3-1 vs. the pointspread at home on Monday Night Football.
Cincinnati is 5-2 straight-up and 4-3 vs. the pointspread at home on Monday Night Football;
3-15 straight-up and 4-14 vs. the pointspread on the road on Monday Night Football.
Arizona and San Francisco on Monday Night
Arizona is 2-5 straight-up and 2-5 vs. the pointspread on the road on Monday Night Football;
3-6-1 straight-up and 4-6 vs. the pointspread at home on Monday Night Football.
San Francisco is 19-10 straight-up and 19-8-2 vs. the pointspread at home on Monday Night Football;
16-13 straight-up and 19-10 vs. the pointspread on the road on Monday Night Football.
HEAD-TO-HEAD MEETINGS IN 2006 (not necessarily Mon. night)
2006 Reg. Seas.: Cincinnati -3 beat Baltimore 13-7 at Cincinnati
2006 Reg. Seas.: Baltimore -3 beat Cincinnati 26-20 at Baltimore
2006 Reg. Seas.: Arizona +4 beat San Francisco 26-20 at San Francisco
2006 Reg. Seas.: Arizona -8½ beat San Francisco 34-27 at Arizona
NFL KEY RELEASES
PITTSBURGH by 16 over Cleveland
OAKLAND by 13 over Detroit
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
OVER THE TOTAL in the Tennessee-Jacksonville game
NFL RATINGS & POINTSPREAD RECORDS
All teams measured from the TOP RATING of zero. HFV - Home Field Value. Deduct allotted points for HFV from rating of Home Team. R - Current Power Rating. SUR - Straight-Up Won-Loss Record. PSR - Won-Loss Record vs. Pointspread. O/U-Total Over-under record (number of games that went over-number of games that went under). PF & PA - Average Points Scored For and Against. Results at Home listed under Home. Results on Road listed under Away. Teams with a bold + or - have had their ratings moved 2 points or more for the better (+) or worse (-) since last week.
TOTAL HOME AWAY
TEAM R HFV SUR PSR O/U PF-PA PSR PF-PA PSR PF-PA
Arizona 11 2 5-11 8-8 11-5 20-24 4-4 21-23 4-4 19-26
Atlanta 12 3 7-9 8-8 4-11 18-21 3-5 20-22 5-3 17-19
Baltimore 4 3 13-4 10-7 7-10 21-13 6-3 22-12 4-4 21-13
Buffalo 9 3 7-9 10-6 7-9 19-19 5-3 21-20 5-3 17-19
Carolina 8 2 8-8 5-9-2 7-9 17-19 2-5 15-20 3-4 19-18
Chicago 3 3 15-4 10-8-1 13-5 27-17 6-5 28-18 4-3 25-16
Cincinnati 4 3 8-8 8-7-1 7-9 23-21 3-4 24-23 5-3 23-18
Cleveland 12 2 4-12 7-8-1 6-9 15-22 3-5 14-21 4-3 16-24
Dallas 4 3 9-8 9-8 9-6 26-22 4-4 25-23 5-4 28-21
Denver 4 3 9-7 5-11 8-8 20-19 1-7 20-19 4-4 20-19
Detroit 13 2 3-13 6-10 9-7 19-25 4-4 18-22 2-6 20-28
Green Bay 10 2 8-8 7-9 8-8 19-23 2-6 14-23 5-3 23-23
Houston 10 3 6-10 7-9 8-8 17-23 4-4 19-20 3-5 15-26
Indianapolis 0 3 16-4 12-8 9-11 27-21 7-3 30-19 5-5 23-24
Jacksonville 7 4 8-8 8-8 9-7 23-17 6-2 27-11 2-6 20-23
Kansas City 9 3 9-8 8-9 7-9 20-20 5-3 25-19 3-6 16-21
Miami 10 2 6-10 6-10 6-10 16-18 3-5 15-16 3-5 17-20
Minnesota 12 2 6-10 7-9 8-7 18-20 3-5 18-25 4-4 17-16
New England -1 3 14-5 11-7-1 8-11 25-16 3-5 22-16 8-2 28-17
New Orleans 2 3 11-7 10-8 10-8 25-21 3-6 23-22 7-2 28-21
NY Giants 7 2 8-9 9-8 8-8 22-23 3-5 18-21 6-3 26-24
NY Jets 7 3 10-7 11-6 10-7 20-20 5-3 20-19 6-3 19-20
Oakland 11 2 2-14 6-10 4-12 11-21 3-5 12-19 3-5 9-22
Philadelphia 5 3 11-7 10-8 10-8 25-21 4-5 24-19 6-3 26-23
Pittsburgh 5 3 8-8 8-8 9-6 22-20 5-3 26-19 3-5 19-20
St. Louis 10 3 8-8 9-7 8-7 23-24 4-4 26-29 5-3 20-19
San Diego 2 3 14-3 9-8 10-7 30-19 5-4 30-17 4-4 30-21
San Francisco 12 3 7-9 9-7 9-7 19-26 4-4 21-24 5-3 17-28
Seattle 6 3 10-8 8-10 10-8 21-22 5-4 22-20 3-6 20-23
Tampa Bay 8 2 4-12 6-9-1 7-9 13-22 3-4 14-22 3-5 13-22
Tennessee 7 3 8-8 11-5 13-3 20-25 5-3 22-27 6-2 19-24
Washington 10 2 5-11 5-10-1 7-7 19-24 3-5 22-23 2-5 17-24
posted by phantom
Sept. 4 2007 5:07pm -
0 likes
GOLD SHEET
KEY RELEASES
College---Miami-OH, UCLA, S. Florida, Ok. State
Pro---Steelers, Raiders, OVER Titans/Jags
XTRA
College---UVA, NCST, OLE Miss, VTech
Pro---OVER ARIZ/SF
CKO
College---11-Kansas St, 10-PSU, 10-S. Carolina, 10-Ark State
Pro---10-Dolphins
__________________
posted by phantom
Sept. 6 2007 5:38pm -
0 likes
NFL Football 2-Minute Handicap
Thursday, Sep 6th
New Orleans 6-0 in 1st of BB RG’s…1-7 O/U Game One…PAYTON: 7-1 A
INDIANAPOLIS SERIES: 4-1 L5…3-0-1 on Thursdays…6-1 Game One
__________________
posted by phantom
Sept. 6 2007 5:39pm -
0 likes
NFL Technical Game of the Week Selection:
Game: Philadelphia vs. Green Bay
Technical Set: Play Under NFL teams when the total is between 42.5 and 49 points with a team that had a winning record last season, 23-4 Under last three seasons. Play Under on Game One NFL home teams with a line of +3 to -3 and a total more than 40.5, 17-1 Under since 2001.
Selection: UNDER 44
posted by phantom
Sept. 6 2007 5:39pm -
0 likes
MTi’s NFL Selections / Week 1
5-Star JACKSONVILLE -6’ over Tennessee—The Titans had both
a 5-game winning streak and a 5-game losing streak last season
and finished 8-8, the same record as the Jaguars. Tennessee won a lot
of games despite being out-statted. One of them was vs the Jaguars.
In week 15, the Titans upset the Jaguars 24-17 getting 3’ at home.
The Jaguars’ offense outgained the Titans’ offense 396 yards to 98
yards. Tennessee’s offense managed a total of five first downs, but they
didn’t need much offense, as they scored on two long interception
returns and a long fumble return. The only time their offense put
points on the board was on a field goal after a 70-yard kickoff return!
Jacksonville had a staggering 44:22 of possession time vs the Titans’
15:38! Over the past eighteen NFL seasons, there have been only ten
non-overtime games in which one team held the ball for at least 44
minutes. In every game but the Jaguars vs the Titans last season, the
team that dominated the clock won by double-digits.
We look for the Jaguars to gain revenge here. They are off a disappointing
season, whereas the Titans are off a good season. Jaguars’ head
coach John Fox has prepared his team well for the regular season, as
Jacksonville is 8-0 ATS since 1999 in their season opener, covering
the spread by an average of 10.4 ppg. We used this trend in this spot
last season and the Jaguars covered for us against the Cowboys.
That said, we have a lot more than just this trend. Jacksonville’s
strength is stopping the run and Tennessee needs to rely on the running
of LenDale White. Vince Young is not a crisp or accurate passer
and he lost both Drew Bennett and Bobby Wade in the off season.
We expect the Titans to have a lot of trouble moving the ball vs this
tough Jaguars’ defense. It is a little-known fact that the Jaguars led
the league in points allowed at home last season, as their opponents
averaged 11.0 ppg in Jacksonville in 2006 — and they faced the
Cowboys, Colts and Patriots at home last season!
Tennessee’s 8-8 record was a result of luck and teams over-looking
them. Their defense allowed an average of 369.7 yards per game last
season and this was the worst in the league. Their opponent’s held the
ball for an average of 32:50, the highest opponent’s possession time
in the league. Jacksonville’s opponents had an average possession time
of only 27:52, second only to the Ravens.
The Titans finished dead last in the league in completion percentage
and if it wasn’t for the Colts, the Titans would have allowed the most
yards rushing in the AFC at 145.1 yards per game. A key stat that
is a terrific gauge of the quality of a team is the difference between a
team’s punts and forced punts. Tennessee punted the ball an average
of 5.50 times per game last season (5th worst) and forced only 4.25
punts per game (6th worst). The Jaguars, punted the ball away only
4.56 times per game last season (9th best), but forced an average of
5.62 punts per game (5th best). Despite their 8-8 record, the Jaguars
actually outscored their opponents by an average of 6.1 ppg last season.
This is higher than the Colts, Saints, Eagles and Cowboys.
Indeed, no matter how you look at it, these two teams have had
very different performances last season, despite the fact that they both
finished at 8-8. And to further rub it in, the Titans’ won the tie-breaker,
relegating the Jaguars to third place in their division. Tennessee’s 24-17
win in their last meeting epitomizes the disparity between the quality
of the teams and their record last season. The schedule-makers have
given the Jaguars an opportunity to correct this in their opening game
and they shouldn’t miss the opportunity.
David Garrard, recently named the starter, is a good choice. It was
him who threw the INTs that were returned for TDs vs the Titans,
motivating him for revenge in his home opener as the first string
starter.
In the past Jacksonville has been soft against weaker teams and
gotten up for the league’s elite. Here, we expect them to come out of
the tunnel with their game faces on. Lay the points.
MTi’s FORECAST: JACKSONVILLE 27 Tennessee 3
4-Star Tampa Bay +6 over SEATTLE—Last season, our top side
play in week one was the Ravens PLUS the points over the Bucs.
Baltimore crushed Tampa 27-0. This season, we’ll go WITH the
Buccaneers.
The Bucs’ last regular season game was vs these Seahawks, as they
met in week 17, 2006. Tampa Bay was laying 3 at home, but they
MTi’s Side Play of the Week
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Selections available at with a web debit account
2007 NFL Report |
lost 23-7 to finish at 4-12. The Seahawks scored on their first two
possessions and never trailed. Seattle had already clinched the NFC
West crown at 8-7, but they played their starters to ensure that they
got over 500 for the season and earned a modicum of respect from
their playoff opponents. Here, however, they are starting a new season
and they have the Arizona Cardinals on the road next week. Arizona
thinks they “won†the NFC West division last season, as they were
4-2 vs divisional opponents, whereas the Seahawks were only 3-3.
Next week is a big game for Seattle and we expect they won’t be able
to avoid looking ahead. We have a play-against system that is perfect
since 1989, and that’s as far back as the database goes. It reads, “The
league is 0-13 ATS in week 1 as a favorite of greater than 3 and fewer
than 7 points over a non-divisional opponent who they had a better
record than, when their next game is versus a divisional opponent.â€
The Seahawks fit this system in which teams have failed to cover by
an average of 13.0 ppg.
Tampa Bay is a very nice 4-0-1 ATS when seeking revenge vs a
non-divisional opponent for a loss the previous season, covering the
spread by an average of 12.4 ppg. Last season, the Bucs nearly got
revenge vs the Bears in just this situation, losing 34-31 in overtime,
getting 13 points in Chicago.
Jeff Garcia should be a big improvement over previous Bucs’ QB’s
and Garcia fits not only Gruden’s offense, but his personality as well.
The defense will play better knowing that they have a tough, veteran
QB that will give the job done on the offensive side of the ball. Taking
the six points is the way to go here.
MTi’s FORECAST: SEATTLE 20 TAMPA BAY 17
MTi’s Totals Play of the Week
4-Star Denver at Buffalo OVER 37—Broncos QB Jay Cutler has
started five games in his NFL career and all five went over. Denver
has never scored fewer than 20 points when he started behind center
nor have they allowed fewer than 20 points when he started behind
center. Yet this is the lowest total in any game Cutler has started. In fact,
it is the only total that has been in the 30’s in Cutler’s five starts.
Another coach might be cautious with his young QB on the
road, but we look for the veteran HC Shanahan to give Cutler some
latitude here. Buffalo has suffered serious veteran losses on defense
(Takeo Spikes, London Fletcher and Nate Clements) and is very
young. With McGahee gone and rookie Marshawn Lynch taking his
place, the Bills’ defense will be on the field too much. This means
points for the Broncos and since Buffalo has the ability to complete
the long pass, we expect some points from them as well — as they
will playing from behind.
In last season’s opener, Denver lost 18-10 on the road to the
Rams, by virtue of a 5-0 turnover margin — four of which were Jake
Plummer’s (three INTs and a lost fumble). Plummer is gone and Shanahan
is now sleeping better at night. Shanahan has demonstrated a
confidence in Cutler that we have not see since the departure of John
Elway. He knows that will not force the ball and will throw it away
when necessary.
Looking at the trends, we see that the Bills are a perfect 4-0 OU
since divisional realignment as a home dog when they play on the
road in each of the next two weeks. Buffalo, who plays at Pittsburgh
and New England over the next two weeks, has eclipsed the OU
line by an average of 19.6 ppg in this situation. The Broncos have a
complementary trend. Denver, who hosts Oakland and Jacksonville
over the next two weeks is 6-0 OU as a road favorite on Sunday over
a non-divisional opponent when they play at home in each of the next
two weeks. Denver has gone over the posted number by an average of
12.2 ppg in this situation and in their last active date, week 15, 2006,
they beat the Cardinals 37-20 as a 2’ point road favorite with the OU
line at 43’. Take these two OVER this low number.
MTi’s FORECAST: Denver 27 BUFFALO 17 OVER
MTi’s Teaser Play of the Week
The Jaguars joined the league in 1995 and ever since then they are
a perfect 11-0 ATSp10* in their season opener. So, give the Jags
an extra ten points and they are perfect in their opener in franchise
history. We used Jacksonville in this spot last season and we look for
another Teaser +10 victory here.
The Ravens are a fantastic teaser team — especially vs their division
— as they have the defense to keep games close. Baltimore
is 17-0 ATSp10 vs a divisional opponent and 21-1 ATSp10 in
franchise history vs Cincinnati.
The 49ers simply do not get blown out at home by their divisional
opponents. San Francisco is 46-4-1 ATSp10 when hosting
divisional opponents and three of the losses came against the
Panthers and one vs the Saints. Both are no longer in their division.
Since divisional realignment. The 49ers are a perfect 15-0
ATSp10.
That makes our 3-team, 10-point teaser for week 1:
4-Star Jacksonville +3’, Baltimore +12’ and San Francisco +7
MTi Sports Forecasting’s 6-point, 2-team teasers were 32-16 last
regular season and 13-3 this preseason. No kidding. MTi’s teasers are
available at KillerCappers.com all season with a web debit account.
As always, MTi’s teasers are guaranteed to be PERFECT or you
pay nothing.
*ATSp10 means against the spread plus ten points. That is, when used in a
ten-point teaser
posted by phantom
Sept. 6 2007 5:40pm -
0 likes
SportsMemo
Best Bets:
Sonny: Buffalo (NFL)
Trushel: St Louis (NFL)
Otto: Atlanta (NFL)
klein: Oakland (NFL)
Veno: Dallas (NFL)
posted by phantom
Sept. 7 2007 4:59pm -
0 likes
Winning Points
NCAA Best Bets: 4* Northwestern, 3* Penn State
NFL Best Bets: 4* Buffalo, 3* Houston
posted by phantom
Sept. 7 2007 5:02pm -
0 likes
SportsReporter
NFL Super Best Bet: San Diego
NFL Best Bets: Jax, Cincy
posted by phantom
Sept. 7 2007 5:03pm -
0 likes
The Red Sheet
89-N"western
89-ASU
88-TTech
88-PSU
88-Hawaii
88-Chargers
posted by phantom
Sept. 7 2007 11:17pm -
0 likes
NFL
Long Sheet
Week 1
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Sunday, September 9
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
KANSAS CITY (9 -
at HOUSTON (6 - 10) - 9/9/2007, 1:00 PMTop Trends for this game.
KANSAS CITY is 34-19 ATS (+13.1 Units) in September games since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
KANSAS CITY is 1-0 against the spread versus HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
KANSAS CITY is 1-0 straight up against HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
DENVER (9 - 7) at BUFFALO (7 - 9) - 9/9/2007, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
DENVER is 1-0 against the spread versus BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons
DENVER is 1-0 straight up against BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
PITTSBURGH (8 -
at CLEVELAND (4 - 12) - 9/9/2007, 1:00 PMTop Trends for this game.
PITTSBURGH is 65-41 ATS (+19.9 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
PITTSBURGH is 3-1 against the spread versus CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
PITTSBURGH is 4-0 straight up against CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
4 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TENNESSEE (8 -
at JACKSONVILLE (8 - - 9/9/2007, 1:00 PMTop Trends for this game.
JACKSONVILLE is 16-6 ATS (+9.4 Units) in home games in September games since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
JACKSONVILLE is 2-2 against the spread versus TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
JACKSONVILLE is 3-1 straight up against TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
4 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
CAROLINA (8 -
at ST LOUIS (8 - - 9/9/2007, 1:00 PMThere are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
CAROLINA is 1-0 against the spread versus ST LOUIS over the last 3 seasons
CAROLINA is 1-0 straight up against ST LOUIS over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
PHILADELPHIA (11 - 7) at GREEN BAY (8 -
- 9/9/2007, 1:00 PMTop Trends for this game.
PHILADELPHIA is 113-77 ATS (+28.3 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
PHILADELPHIA is 24-10 ATS (+13.0 Units) against NFC North division opponents since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
PHILADELPHIA is 2-0 against the spread versus GREEN BAY over the last 3 seasons
PHILADELPHIA is 2-0 straight up against GREEN BAY over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
ATLANTA (7 - 9) at MINNESOTA (6 - 10) - 9/9/2007, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
ATLANTA is 1-0 against the spread versus MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
ATLANTA is 1-0 straight up against MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
MIAMI (6 - 10) at WASHINGTON (5 - 11) - 9/9/2007, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
WASHINGTON is 40-62 ATS (-28.2 Units) as a favorite since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 7-20 ATS (-15.0 Units) in home games in September games since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NEW ENGLAND (14 - 5) at NY JETS (10 - 7) - 9/9/2007, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NY JETS are 6-18 ATS (-13.8 Units) in home games in September games since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
NEW ENGLAND is 4-1 against the spread versus NY JETS over the last 3 seasons
NEW ENGLAND is 4-1 straight up against NY JETS over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TAMPA BAY (4 - 12) at SEATTLE (10 -
- 9/9/2007, 4:15 PMTop Trends for this game.
SEATTLE is 23-39 ATS (-19.9 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
SEATTLE is 11-26 ATS (-17.6 Units) as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992.
SEATTLE is 55-83 ATS (-36.3 Units) in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
SEATTLE is 1-0 against the spread versus TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons
SEATTLE is 1-0 straight up against TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
CHICAGO (15 - 4) at SAN DIEGO (14 - 3) - 9/9/2007, 4:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CHICAGO is 13-2 ATS (+10.8 Units) against AFC West division opponents since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
DETROIT (3 - 13) at OAKLAND (2 - 14) - 9/9/2007, 4:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OAKLAND is 24-45 ATS (-25.5 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NY GIANTS (8 - 9) at DALLAS (9 -
- 9/9/2007, 8:15 PMThere are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
NY GIANTS is 2-0 against the spread versus DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
DALLAS is 2-2 straight up against NY GIANTS over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Monday, September 10
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BALTIMORE (13 - 4) at CINCINNATI (8 -
- 9/10/2007, 7:00 PMTop Trends for this game.
CINCINNATI is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points over the last 3 seasons.
CINCINNATI is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in September games over the last 3 seasons.
CINCINNATI is 36-56 ATS (-25.6 Units) in home games against conference opponents since 1992.
CINCINNATI is 44-66 ATS (-28.6 Units) versus division opponents since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
CINCINNATI is 3-1 against the spread versus BALTIMORE over the last 3 seasons
CINCINNATI is 3-1 straight up against BALTIMORE over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
ARIZONA (5 - 11) at SAN FRANCISCO (7 - 9) - 9/10/2007, 10:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ARIZONA is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in September games over the last 3 seasons.
SAN FRANCISCO is 20-7 ATS (+12.3 Units) when playing on Monday night since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
ARIZONA is 3-1 against the spread versus SAN FRANCISCO over the last 3 seasons
ARIZONA is 4-0 straight up against SAN FRANCISCO over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
posted by phantom
Sept. 8 2007 12:08pm -
0 likes
NFL
Short Sheet
Week 1
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Sunday, September 9th
Kansas City at Houston, 1:00 ET
Kansas City: 18-7 Under vs. conference opponents
Houston: 2-8 ATS in the first two weeks of the season
Denver at Buffalo, 1:00 ET
Denver: 19-8 ATS in the first two weeks of the season
Buffalo: 13-4 Over at home vs. AFC West opponents
Pittsburgh at Cleveland, 1:00 ET
Pittsburgh: 11-4 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points
Cleveland: 12-4 Under in home games
Tennessee at Jacksonville, 1:00 ET
Tennessee: 10-5 Over in the first half of the season
Jacksonville: 16-6 ATS at home in September
Carolina at St. Louis, 1:00 ET
Carolina: 1-7 ATS in the first month of the season
St. Louis: 7-3 ATS as a home underdog of 3 points or less
Philadelphia at Green Bay, 1:00 ET
Philadelphia: 24-10 ATS vs. NFC North opponents
Green Bay: 1-5 ATS as a home underdog
Atlanta at Minnesota, 1:00 ET
Atlanta: 12-4 Under in road games
Minnesota: 6-1 Under in the first month of the season
Miami at Washington, 1:00 ET
Miami: 1-6 ATS as a road underdog of 3 points or less
Washington: 19-8 Under in the first two weeks of the season
New England at NY Jets, 1:00 ET
New England: 8-2 ATS as a road favorite
NY Jets: 6-18 ATS at home in September
Tampa Bay at Seattle, 4:15 ET
Tampa Bay: 25-4 Under in the first two weeks of the season
Seattle: 11-26 ATS as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points
Chicago at San Diego, 4:15 ET
Chicago: 21-9 Under away vs. non-conference opponents
San Diego: 10-4 ATS in the first half of the season
Detroit at Oakland, 4:15 ET
Detroit: 0-6 ATS as a road underdog of 7 points or less
Oakland: 12-3 Under in home games
NY Giants at Dallas, 8:15 ET NBC
NY Giants: 8-3 ATS vs. division opponents
Dallas: 9-5 Under at home vs. NY Giants
Monday, September 10th
Baltimore at Cincinnati, 7:00 ET ESPN
Baltimore: 18-6 Under vs. conference opponents
Cincinnati: 6-0 ATS in September
Arizona at San Francisco, 10:15 ET ESPN
Arizona: 0-6 ATS in September
San Francisco: 20-7 ATS on Monday nights
------------------------------------
posted by phantom
Sept. 8 2007 12:11pm -
0 likes
NFL
Write-up
Week 1 - 2007 NFL season
Sunday, September 9
Chiefs @ Texans-- Two teams headed in opposite directions, as Chiefs are in disarray, with Huard winning QB derby by default, while Texans imported Schaub te replace Carr at QB, as they try and move past mistake of not drafting hometown hero Young. Houston lost last four home openers, three by 14+ points. KC is 4-2 in last six road openers, but lost couple of offensive linemen, and star RB Johnson just got into camp. Chiefs, originally called the Dallas Texans, won last two visits here, 42-14/45-17.
Broncos @ Bills-- Denver won last four series games, with totals in last three 43+; they won last two visits here, 23-20ot/28-17, but lost last three road openers, with four of last five staying under total. Old friend Travis Henry returns to Buffalo, trying to revive Bronco running game. Buffalo is 4-9 in last 13 openers, 2-4 in last six at home; six of their last eight home openers stayed under the total. Interesting to see how Cal rookie Lynch does running ball.
Steelers @ Browns-- Steelers have third coach in last 39 seasons, vs team that has major confusion at QB- they actually flipped a coin to determine starter for summer game. Pittsburgh won seven series games in row, with five of last six wins by 11+ points- they won last six visits to Lake Erie, and converted on 16 of 28 third down plays vs Browns LY, scoring six TDs on 20 drives, while the Browns had one TD on 19 drives, with seven 3/outs. They've lost seven of last eight home openers, with four of the last five losses by five or less points.
Titans @ Jaguars-- Jax outrushed Titans 380-149 LY, allowing the Titans to convert just five of 26 on third down, but they lost big game in Week 15 to Tennessee (24-17), even though Titans had only 98 total yards, and were 0 for 8 on third down. Titans lost last two visits here, 40-13/37-7, and lost six of last seven openers on road; they're 3-9 vs spread as dog in road openers, losing last two by combined score of 74-14. Jags covered last six openers at home; they covered in Week 1 the last eight years.
Panthers @ Rams-- First visit to this site for Carolina since win in OT in '03 playoffs that propelled them to NFC title; Panthers won last three series games, 15-0/20-7/29-23ot- they held Rams to just 31 rushing yards in LY's game, dominating total yards (411-111) holding St Louis to eight first downs. Rams upgraded offense by adding Bennett, McMichael; they won last four series openers, all by eight or less points. In their history, Carolina is 1-3 in Week 1 road games-- they lost their last three season openers, all as a home favorite.
Eagles @ Packers-- Philly won last five series games, with home side winning nine of last ten in series; Eagles lost three of last 4 visits to Lambeau, but haven't been here since '03. LY, Pack led
9-7 at half in Philly, but lost 31-9, as Iggles ran ball for 131 yards, and has 12-yard advantage in field position. Pack lost their last 4 home openers, covered just one of last eight, allowing 25.8 ppg in last four. Eagles are 6-2 vs spread as favorite in Week 1; under is 7-2 in their last nine road openers.
Falcons @ Vikings-- Post-Vick era begins with Harrington at QB for Atlanta. Home side lost four of last five series games, as the Falcons won last two visits here, both in OT (one of wins was in playoffs). Vikings won three of last four home openers; under is 13-5-1 in their last 19, as well as 12-6 in Falcons' last 18 openers on road. Atlanta started out 1-0 last four years, won three of last four road openers. Minnesota figures to try and run ball, with a young QB (Jackson) and solid rookie runner (Peterson).
Dolphins @ Redskins-- Cameron/Green combo used to work for Redskins, now 37-year old Green tries to revive career in Miami, after serious concussion caused him to miss half of last season in KC. Home side won last five series games, with Dolphins' last W here back in '84. Skins won four of last five home openers, with last four staying under- they're 2-6-1 vs spread last nine times as a favorite in home opener. Fish lost last three road openers; nine of their last thirteen road openers stayed under the total.
Patriots @ Jets-- New England defense has taken hits recently, as Harrison, Seymour both out for first month, but Belichick is 7-1 in last eight series games, winning last six at this site. Last season, Pats won two of three vs Jets, outrushing Gang Green 448-208. although Jets did run ball for 117 yards in game they won. Jets were 17-31 on 3rd down during season vs Pats, but only 3-11 in playoff loss. Over is 13-5-1 in last nineteen Jet home openers, and 5-2-2 in New England's last nine road openers.
Buccaneers @ Seahawks-- Seattle won six of last seven in series, with last four series totals 30 or less; Hawks won 23-7 last year in Week 17 (+3), winning 60.9% of third down plays, having 12-yard edge in field position, piling up 28 first downs and 72-49 edge in plays run. Garcia is latest QB for Bucs, who won six of last eight road openers (under is 6-0 both in Seattle home openers, and Buc road openers). Seahawks won last four home openers, allowing just 9.5 ppg, winning by 17-34-3-11 points.
Bears @ Chargers-- Norv Turner debuts as Bolts' HC, while his brother Ron calls plays for Bears. Charger LB coach Rivera was Chicago DC for last three years, was let go by Chicago after he tried to get head coaching job, so this has to be special game for him, even with hated Patriots on deck. Bears won last four games in this seldom-played series; this is their first visit here since '99. San Diego scored 24-28-40 points in last three season openers. Of late, teams that lose Super Bowl have stumbled the next year.
Lions @ Raiders-- Fine piece of scheduling, as two worst teams in '06 meet in '07 opener, guaranteeing one of them a happy start to this season. Home side won six of last eight series games, as Lions are 0-4 at this site. Raiders acquired QB McCown from the Lions in offseason; will he help Oakland defend Martz Madness? Lions expected to be more explosive in second year with Martz as OC, but Lions just 24-72 in six years under inept GM Millen; hard to have much confidence backing them on road, even against dysfunctional Raider team that cut its 3rd round pick this week.
Giants @ Cowboys-- Both offense dominated series games in '06, as teams combined to convert 56% of third down plays in teams' meetings. This was game last year where Romo replaced Bledsoe after bad INT right before half. Giants were +3 in turnovers, ran ball for 281 yards, while Dallas averaged 7.2/7.3 yards per pass attempt in two games. Giants are 10-6 in last 16 series games, 4-3 in last seven visits here. Dallas started 0-1 six of last seven years under is 13-5-1 in their last nineteen home openers. Can Jacobs be adequate replacement for backstabbing former RB Barber?
Monday, September 10
Ravens @ Bengals-- Baltimore was 11-31 on third down last year vs Bengals, scoring only one TD in seven trips to Cincinnati red zone; they hope addition of McGahee improves those numbers. Bengals won four of last five series games, with Ravens losing in last two visits here, 42-29/13-7, but Cincy OL took some hits last offseason, which could hamper formerly high-powered offense. Ravens lost five of last six road openers, with under 8-1 in last 9 road openers. Bengals won last three home openers, by 3,29,17.
Cardinals @ 49ers-- Since losing pair of OT tilts to Niners in 2005, Cardinals won last four series games, winning last two visits here 17-10/26-20; six of last seven series totals were 45+. Arizona won 64.6% of third down plays in series LY, with Niners just 2-18 on third down, but Cardinals have been awful road team, losing last five road openers by 13-point average. Arizona is 1-12 in last 13 Week 1 road games. Niners covered their last four openers, with underdog covering seven of their last nine. At age 23, 49er QB Smith is same age as Hawai'i's Heisman hopeful Colt Brennan.
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posted by phantom
Sept. 8 2007 12:11pm -
0 likes
NFL
Sunday, September 9
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Tips and Trends
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Denver Broncos at Buffalo Bills (CBS | 1 PM ET)
Team insiders are interested in seeing how this Denver team reacts to the emotional off-season losses it suffered (the death of CB Darrent Williams a few hours after the season ended and in February, Broncos RB Damien Nash died at a charity basketball game). SLIGHT EDGE: BRONCOS
Team insiders are reporting that new defensive coordinator Jim Bates says he will utilize more blitz packages: "No. 1, the top priority is you have to play well against the run," Bates said. "You have to stop the run to get the sticks in our favor where it's third down-and-long." If they are able to get penetration against Buffalo’s vanilla offensive line then Buffalo could be in for a long day. EDGE: BRONCOS
The Broncos’ first-string defense surrendered six touchdowns and three field goals in 15 possessions during the first three games of preseason when starting offenses still were seeing action. EDGE: BILLS
The Broncos are 11-5 SU and ATS in their last 16 season openers, going 11-4 ATS in their last 15 road openers.
Denver is 10-6 SU & ATS its last 16 on the road but also just 3-10 ATS its last 13 as a favorite.
Buffalo is 8-3 ATS its last 11 as a dog and has the offense to hang in here.
The OVER is 25-18 in Buffalo's last 43 games.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns (CBS | 1 PM ET)
Team insiders are concerned over the recent news that the Browns center LeCharles Bentley is on the reserve/physically unable to perform list, meaning he will miss at least the first six weeks of the season. The loss of Bentley and right tackle Ryan Tucker (getting suspended the first four games of the season because of steroid use) is not good news for an aging Jamal Lewis and this vanilla Cleveland offense. BIG EDGE: STEELERS
Team insiders are reporting that Pittsburgh first-year head coach Mike Tomlin is overseeing a defensive scheme change to a 3-4 alignment with elements of the 4-3 scheme. It may take awhile for opposing offensive coordinators to figure out how to attack the new scheme. EDGE: STEELERS
The Steelers are an incredible 18-8 SU & 16-10 ATS on the road in the last three years.
The Cleveland Browns are 15-23-1 ATS as an underdog and are 0-7 SU & 1-6 ATS its last 7 against Pittsburgh.
Philadelphia Eagles at Green Bay Packers (FOX | 1 PM ET)
Team insiders are still concerned with the Philadelphia run stopping unit that slipped to 26th last season. However, that won't be a big problem here as Green Bay has an unproven running game that will be without Ahman Green for the first time in eight seasons. SLIGHT EDGE: PACKERS
The Eagles have outscored the Packers by 57 points during the past three years, although all three games were at Philadelphia. SLIGHT EDGE: EAGLES
Last season's Green Bay defense was good on paper but really struggled when stepping up against playoff teams, losing 38-10 to the Jets, 35-0 to the Patriots, 26-0 to the Bears, 34-27 to the Saints and 31-9 to these Eagles. EDGE: EAGLES
Philadelphia is an incredible 33-18 SU & 31-19 ATS on the road the last 6 years.
The Packers are a disappointing 10-15 SU and 6-18-1 ATS the last three seasons at home.
Kansas City Chiefs at Houston Texans (CBS | 1 PM ET)
Team insiders are concerned about the Kansas City offensive line, which has lost their two best players (Willie Roaf, Will Shields) over the last two years. The concern is exacerbated because head coach Herm Edwards prefers a conservative ground game that may have trouble opening up the lanes for running back Larry Johnson, who missed the entire preseason and is not expected to see his usual workload in the season opener. EDGE: TEXANS
Kansas City scored just 32 points in the preseason and was the only team to total less than 40. EDGE: TEXANS
Kansas City is 9-18 SU & 9-17-1 ATS its last 27 road games.
Tennessee Titans at Jacksonville Jaguars (CBS | 1 PM ET)
Team insiders are concerned about this Tennessee defense that has a lot of holes, with CB "Pac Man" Jones suspended off a defense that was dead last in the league in 2006. They allowed 144 yards rushing per game (30th) and allowed over 200 rush yards twice and over 170 yards 5 times. EDGE: JAGUARS
Team insiders believe that Jacksonville holds a fundamental matchup advantage when Tennessee is on offense. Tennessee prefers to run the football and the Jaguars are dominant up front against the run (3rd in total defense se in 2006, 5th against the run). EDGE: JAGUARS
Jacksonville team insiders are excited about new offensive coordinator Dirk Koetter (former Boise St and Arizona St head coach) who implemented a new, wide-open offense. Jacksonville displayed their new look all preseason and should do well against a weak Tennessee secondary. EDGE: JAGUARS
The Jags are 14-8-2 ATS in their last 24 home games and beat Tennessee here 37-7 and 40-13 the last two years.
Jacksonville is 8-0 ATS in its last 8 season openers.
Atlanta Falcons at Minnesota Vikings (FOX | 1 PM ET)
The offseason saga surrounding the Falcons is finally over, with QB Joey Harrington finally ready to take over for Michael Vick. "I don't need to fill Michael Vick's shoes," Harrington said."I'm not trying to be Michael Vick. I'm trying to be myself. If I can play like myself, people will believe in me." Harrington is 1-6 lifetime vs. Minnesota with 8 touchdowns and 14 interceptions. EDGE: VIKINGS & UNDER
Minnesota's top concern is improving an offense that set team records for fewest touchdown passes (13) and first downs (272) last season. The play of second-year QB Tavaris Jackson (47-of-81 for 475 yards with 2 touchdowns and 4 interceptions in 4 games last season) will be the key to the offense's revival while rookie RB Adrian Peterson should help starter Chester Taylor stay fresh coming off the biggest workload of his career. SLIGHT EDGE: FALCONS & UNDER
Atlanta is 7-0 ATS in its last 7 season openers as an underdog.
Atlanta is also 8-1 in its last 8 season openers.
Minnesota is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games.
New England Patriots at New York Jets (CBS | 1 PM ET)
Some team insiders believe that the Jets’ 10-6 mark last year was a bit misleading considering they played an easy schedule, were out-gained by 415 yards and had 23 fewer first downs than their opponents. EDGE: PATRIOTS
Jets QB Chad Pennington struggled in the preseason and the offensive line play was poor after trading away disgruntled veteran G Pete Kendall two weeks ago. This could also be tough for new RB Thomas Jones, who missed most of the preseason with a calf strain but has practiced this week and should be ready to play. EDGE: PATRIOTS
New England’s quarterback Tom Brady has an impressive 10-2 SU career mark against New York.
New England was 8-2 SU & ATS on the road last season.
New England has also dominated this series with an 8-1 ATS mark.
Carolina Panthers at St. Louis Rams (FOX | 1 PM ET)
The Rams have the motivational edge looking for revenge after the Panthers held them scoreless for the first time since 1998 in a 15-0 victory last November 19th while sacking Marc Bulger seven times. EDGE: RAMS
The Panthers have a new offensive coordinator in Jeff Davidson, who has added more spice plus zone blocking by the offensive line. However, Carolina’s offense did struggle at times in the preseason as John Fox shuffled different combinations, something to keep an eye on in the opener. SLIGHT EDGE: RAMS
The St. Louis run defense has been brutal, giving up 4.9 yards per carry the last two seasons - worst in the NFL during that stretch. EDGE: PANTHERS
The Carolina Panthers are 15-9-1 ATS their last 25 road games.
The Rams are 6-10 ATS in their last 16 home games.
The OVER is 7-3-1 in the last 11 games for St. Louis along with 4-1 in the last 5 for Carolina.
Carolina is a stellar 15-2-1 ATS as an underdog.
Miami Dolphins at Washington Redskins (FOX | 1 PM ET)
This will be the first game for new Dolphins head coach Cam Cameron after being offensive coordinator of the Chargers in 2006. Considering Cameron was the brains behind the explosive offense in San Diego, some insiders were disappointed that Miami struggled to put points on the board for much of the preseason. SLIGHT EDGE: REDSKINS
A key for the Redskins will be the health of their offensive line, and whether or not they are able to stay together for the entire season. It is a very strong unit despite the loss of Derrick Dockery. Converted tackle Todd Wage will likely replace Dockery and has a very important job considering the team’s starting QB is a right-hander, making Wage’s position even more important as it is Jason Campell’s blindside. If Washington is able to keep Campbell on his feet, this team could go far. EDGE: REDSKINS
Miami is 18-14 ATS on the road the last four seasons.
The UNDER is 6-3 in Washington's last 9 games and 30-19 since head coach Joe Gibbs returned in 2004.
Detroit Lions at Oakland Raiders (FOX | 4:15 ET)
Detroit got better offensively with WR Calvin Johnson joining Roy Williams (1,310 yards) and WR Mike Furrey (1,086 yards). Quarterback Jon Kitna will enjoy throwing downfield, though he missed the last two preseason games with back spasms. SLIGHT EDGE: LIONS
Team insider cannot believe how Lions GM Matt Millen could have actually made the 26th-ranked defense worse by trading away CB Dre Bly. The secondary was awful in preseason and will be the weak link on this team, along with a suspect offensive line. EDGE: RAIDERS
The Raiders will start former Detroit backup Josh McCown at QB, a move that should benefit them considering he went up against the Lions defense in practice everyday last season. EDGE: RAIDERS
Detroit is 2-13 SU & 6-9 ATS its last 15 road games.
Chicago Bears at San Diego Chargers (FOX | 4:15 PM ET)
The Chargers not only have a new head coach in Norv Turner, but also new offensive and defensive coordinators. Turner also has ties to the Bears as brother Ron is Chicago's offensive coordinator while San Diego LB coach Ron Rivera was the defensive coordinator of the defending NFC champs last season. EDGE: CHARGERS
Both the Bears and Chargers are coming off disappointing endings to last season with a lot left to prove this year. Chicago played last postseason without two of the team's best defensive players in safety Mike Brown and tackle Tommie Harris, both of whom should be ready to go in the season opener following injuries. The key to this game likely will be decided by the amount of pressure San Diego All-Pro linebacker Shawne Merriman can put on mistake-prone QB Rex Grossman. EDGE: CHARGERS
Chicago's offense is expected to be even more lethal this year with the addition of Devin Hester as a wide receiver and Bernard Berrian emerging as one of the best deep threats in the NFL. Grossman's ability to get the ball to the team's top playmakers against a suspect San Diego secondary could help the Bears pull off an upset here. EDGE: BEARS
Super Bowl losers are 1-10 ATS on the road the last 11 years in the opening game of the season.
San Diego is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games as a favorite.
The OVER is 16-5-1 in Chicago's last 22 games.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Seattle Seahawks (FOX | 4:15 PM ET)
Injuries decimated the Seahawks offense last year, as 2005 NFL MVP Shaun Alexander missed six games with a foot injury and QB Matt Hasselbeck was out four with a sprained knee and two broken fingers. This team still managed to break a string of five straight Super Bowl losers to miss out on the postseason, losing to Chicago 27-24 in overtime of January's divisional playoffs. They have high expectations of returning to the Super Bowl and must start out strong here. EDGE: SEAHAWKS
The Seattle secondary is a weak spot, something new Bucs QB Jeff Garcia and the Tampa passing game will look to attack. Garcia is the man head coach Jon Gruden targeted to lead his offense when he was with the Raiders, and some insiders believe his best days are behind him. SLIGHT EDGE: BUCS
Seattle is 16-3 SU & 12-6 ATS at home the last two years.
Seattle is 3-8-1 ATS in its last 12 season openers.
The OVER was 11-6 for Seattle in 2004, 12-7 in 2005 and 10-7 last season for a combined mark of 33-20 over the last three years.
New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys (NBC | 8:15 PM ET)
The Giants are a team consumed with turmoil as head coach Tom Coughlin was nearly fired at the end of last season until Tiki (I am retired) Barber bailed him out. Not many believe Brandon Jacobs is the answer to fill the massive void left by the departure, and team insiders were very surprised to see the Giants basically sit out of the free agent market. A key for New York will be how well the defense holds it together through the first half of the season, needing to improve on a 25 th-ranked unit from a year ago. EDGE: COWBOYS
The Giants got battered and bruised in the preseason while going 1-3. LB Kawika Mitchell got banged up late in August and the secondary had all kinds of problems: Cornerback Sam Madison pulled his hamstring and missed Week 4, while safety Will Demps is expected to miss another week with a dislocated right elbow. WR Michael Jennings is out for the season. EDGE: COWBOYS
The Giants are 6-3 ATS in their last 9 games as an underdog.
The Giants have a strong history - going 5-0-1 ATS in the last six meetings - and Dallas is just 1-6 SU in its last seven season openers.
Four of the last five games between these rivals have been decided by 4, 3, 7 and 3 points.
posted by phantom
Sept. 8 2007 12:12pm -
0 likes
mti is alive in there teaser for tonight
4-Star Jacksonville +3’, Baltimore +12’ and San Francisco +7
MTi’s Teaser Play of the Week
The Jaguars joined the league in 1995 and ever since then they are
a perfect 11-0 ATSp10* in their season opener. So, give the Jags
an extra ten points and they are perfect in their opener in franchise
history. We used Jacksonville in this spot last season and we look for
another Teaser +10 victory here.
The Ravens are a fantastic teaser team — especially vs their division
— as they have the defense to keep games close. Baltimore
is 17-0 ATSp10 vs a divisional opponent and 21-1 ATSp10 in
franchise history vs Cincinnati.
The 49ers simply do not get blown out at home by their divisional
opponents. San Francisco is 46-4-1 ATSp10 when hosting
divisional opponents and three of the losses came against the
Panthers and one vs the Saints. Both are no longer in their division.
Since divisional realignment. The 49ers are a perfect 15-0
ATSp10.
posted by phantom
Sept. 10 2007 3:07pm -
0 likes
Gold Sheet Xtra key Releases
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Pro---OVER ARIZ/SF
__________________
posted by phantom
Sept. 10 2007 3:07pm -
0 likes
PSYCHIC (sucked Sun. w/wise guy onKC)
2*Arizona+3
2*Arizona Over 45
3 *Cinn.-2.5
4*Major Over Balt/Cinn.
Jim Kruger
3-1 for the NFL season
San Francisco 49ers -3
LT Profits
NFL 2* Arizona Cardinals (3.0 / +105) vs San Francisco 49ers
Mike Rose
NFL 3* Baltimore Ravens (3.0 / -120) vs Cincinnati Bengals
Larry Ness' 15* Monday Night Opener (
It was not a great Week 1, although Larry did cash with his Week One 20* (Seattle), making him a perfect 7-0 with 20* plays in FB '07 (4-0 in NFLX, now 1-0 in the regular season .
15* Arizona Cardinals
Michael Cannon Goes 2-3 on Sunday
Michael Cannon Money Train
Monday Plays
20 Dime -
RAVENS
Take the points with the Ravens tonight on the road over the Bengals.
It’s pretty hard to pass up getting points with one of the NFL’s best defenses in the Ravens, and considering the Bengals have one of the league’s worst defenses that makes this play all the more to my liking.
Steve McNair will be more comfortable in his second year running this offense, and the addition of running back Willis McGahee over the departed Jamal Lewis will be a significant upgrade that will pay immediate dividends for them tonight.
The Bengals will enter this game short-handed on offense, as left tackle Levi Jones is out with an injury and wide receiver Chris Henry is suspended. Right tackle Willie Anderson is also banged up, and if he gets knocked out of the game it could spell disaster for Carson Palmer and company.
The Ravens will control the tempo of this game against the sorry Bengals defense, which will put more pressure on Palmer to produce when Cincinnati has the ball.
The Bengals are 1-7 ATS at home in Game One and are 2-6 ATS on Monday Night.
Underdogs in the first Monday Night game of the season are 20-8 ATS.
Take the points with the Ravens as they stand an excellent chance of winning this game outright.
Strike Point Sports from Docs Sports
2-Unit Play. #431 Take Baltimore +3 over Cincinnati (7 pm - MNF)
Gotta love the Ravens being favored in this spot. They may be on the road, but they are still the best defense in the league in our minds and they absolutely fly to the ball. Last season they were +3 on the road in Tampa Bay and all they did was win 27-0 in a defense beatdown. They aren't going to shutout the Bengals, but a victory is in sights and the Baltimore offense will come through as well. With Willis McGahee providing a big push in the ground game, Steve McNair can finally attack downfield with the likes of Todd Heap, Derrick Mason and Mark Clayton. This more balanced offense will allow the Ravens defense to not have to bail their offense out like in past seasons. The likes of Ray Lewis, Ed Reed, Chris McAllister and Tyrell Suggs will be all over the field to limit Cincy's playmakers. Look for a field goal decision, but the game winner coming off the leg of Baltimore's Matt Stover. The Ravens are the way to go on Monday night.
Docs Sports
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3 Unit Play. #136 Take San Francisco -3 over Arizona (Monday 10:15 pm ESPN) An important game for two improved teams in 2007 takes place on Monday night, as these two teams open the season for the second straight year. The Cardinals still have a bad defense and were burned by the passing game last year, ranking 30th in the NFL. The 49ers made some quiet signing during the off-season bringing in CB Clements and WR Jackson, both of whom are proven starters in the NFL. This will be a high scoring game in which the 49ers pull away late and win this affair.
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posted by phantom
Sept. 10 2007 3:10pm -
0 likes
Marc Lawrence~newsletter best bet
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4 BEST BET
How can the Bengals be favored in this contest? Cincy is a pitiful
1-7 ATS playing at home in Game One, owns a 2-6 ATS mark on
Mondays and highly-touted QB Carson Palmer can’t even claim
a winning ATS record when playing at Paul Brown Stadium (8-
14-1). Taking the underdog Ravens gets even easier when we
see that dogs in the fi rst Monday Night game of the season have
barked to the tune of 20-8 ATS. The NFL’s best defense taking
points from the league’s worst? We’re there – everytime
Baltimore over CINCINNATI by 10
marcs trends
Monday September 10
Baltimore 4-1 O/U Mondays… 5-2 Mondays… 1-4 Game One
CINCINNATI SERIES: 4-1 L5/3-1 L4 H/ Fav 6-1… 1-7 H Game One
Arizona SERIES: 3-1 L4… 18-81 when lose SU… 2-6 Mondays
SAN FRANCISCO 13-2 Mondays… 6-1 Game One w/rev… 5-1 HF’s w/rev
__________________
posted by phantom
Sept. 10 2007 3:11pm -
0 likes
This Year I Want To Know How The Public Is Doing
As Of Week One With Two Games To Go
Sides
9-5
Total
9-5
Base On This Most Players Should Have Won This Week
Tonight They Are On
Cinn 60% Over 58%
Sf 62% Over 73%
We Are Going To Know By The End Of The Season What The Total Is.....in My Mind It Will Be 50-50
When Watching The Number...use It Only As A Tool!!!!
ACE-ACE
posted by phantom
Sept. 10 2007 3:15pm -
0 likes
that's nice phantom, i'd like to see by the end how the public did as well. keep that up bro. good job
posted by jtmoney16
Sept. 10 2007 3:35pm -
0 likes
Lenny Del Genio's Oddsmaker's Blowout (3-0 Sun sweep / 3-0 with Oddsmaker's Blowouts in '07!)
Play on the 49ers at 10:15 ET. I realize the 49ers have lost four straight to this team burt the Cards are perennial underachievers, having failed to make the playoffs for eight straight seasons, the longest active streak of any team in the league. In fact, that 1998 playoff appearance, was the franchise's only one in the last 24 years! Leinart looked pretty good for a rookie last year and he unquestionably has a great pair of wideouts in Boldin and Fitzgerald. However, even with Edgerrin James, the Cards ranked 30th of 32 teams in rushing in '06 (83.6 ypg). New head coach Whisenhunt (a former Steeler) says he wants an improved running attack but we saw little of it in an 0-4 preseason. I believe the 49ers can be 8-8 or better, this year. They have the NFL's leading rusher from LY in Frank Gore (1,695 / 5.4), a young QB that's just as talented as Leinart (Alex Smith) and a MUCH superior OL! The 49ers also added WRs Darrell Jackson (Sea) and Ashley Lelie (former No. 1 pick of the Broncos). Defensively, the team's biggest weakness was against the pass in '06 but with the signings of Buffalo CB Nate Clements plus Philadelphia safety Michael Lewis, the 2ndy will be greatly improved TY. KC went 0-4 in the preseason and opened yesterday with a 20-3 loss at Houston (my Oddsmaker's Blowout). Expect a similar fate for Arizona. Revenge works here! San Francisco is my Oddsmaker's Blowout.
Good luck, Lenny
posted by phantom
Sept. 10 2007 4:48pm