MTi’s NFL Selections / Week 1
5-Star JACKSONVILLE -6’ over Tennessee—The Titans had both
a 5-game winning streak and a 5-game losing streak last season
and finished 8-8, the same record as the Jaguars. Tennessee won a lot
of games despite being out-statted. One of them was vs the Jaguars.
In week 15, the Titans upset the Jaguars 24-17 getting 3’ at home.
The Jaguars’ offense outgained the Titans’ offense 396 yards to 98
yards. Tennessee’s offense managed a total of five first downs, but they
didn’t need much offense, as they scored on two long interception
returns and a long fumble return. The only time their offense put
points on the board was on a field goal after a 70-yard kickoff return!
Jacksonville had a staggering 44:22 of possession time vs the Titans’
15:38! Over the past eighteen NFL seasons, there have been only ten
non-overtime games in which one team held the ball for at least 44
minutes. In every game but the Jaguars vs the Titans last season, the
team that dominated the clock won by double-digits.
We look for the Jaguars to gain revenge here. They are off a disappointing
season, whereas the Titans are off a good season. Jaguars’ head
coach John Fox has prepared his team well for the regular season, as
Jacksonville is 8-0 ATS since 1999 in their season opener, covering
the spread by an average of 10.4 ppg. We used this trend in this spot
last season and the Jaguars covered for us against the Cowboys.
That said, we have a lot more than just this trend. Jacksonville’s
strength is stopping the run and Tennessee needs to rely on the running
of LenDale White. Vince Young is not a crisp or accurate passer
and he lost both Drew Bennett and Bobby Wade in the off season.
We expect the Titans to have a lot of trouble moving the ball vs this
tough Jaguars’ defense. It is a little-known fact that the Jaguars led
the league in points allowed at home last season, as their opponents
averaged 11.0 ppg in Jacksonville in 2006 — and they faced the
Cowboys, Colts and Patriots at home last season!
Tennessee’s 8-8 record was a result of luck and teams over-looking
them. Their defense allowed an average of 369.7 yards per game last
season and this was the worst in the league. Their opponent’s held the
ball for an average of 32:50, the highest opponent’s possession time
in the league. Jacksonville’s opponents had an average possession time
of only 27:52, second only to the Ravens.
The Titans finished dead last in the league in completion percentage
and if it wasn’t for the Colts, the Titans would have allowed the most
yards rushing in the AFC at 145.1 yards per game. A key stat that
is a terrific gauge of the quality of a team is the difference between a
team’s punts and forced punts. Tennessee punted the ball an average
of 5.50 times per game last season (5th worst) and forced only 4.25
punts per game (6th worst). The Jaguars, punted the ball away only
4.56 times per game last season (9th best), but forced an average of
5.62 punts per game (5th best). Despite their 8-8 record, the Jaguars
actually outscored their opponents by an average of 6.1 ppg last season.
This is higher than the Colts, Saints, Eagles and Cowboys.
Indeed, no matter how you look at it, these two teams have had
very different performances last season, despite the fact that they both
finished at 8-8. And to further rub it in, the Titans’ won the tie-breaker,
relegating the Jaguars to third place in their division. Tennessee’s 24-17
win in their last meeting epitomizes the disparity between the quality
of the teams and their record last season. The schedule-makers have
given the Jaguars an opportunity to correct this in their opening game
and they shouldn’t miss the opportunity.
David Garrard, recently named the starter, is a good choice. It was
him who threw the INTs that were returned for TDs vs the Titans,
motivating him for revenge in his home opener as the first string
starter.
In the past Jacksonville has been soft against weaker teams and
gotten up for the league’s elite. Here, we expect them to come out of
the tunnel with their game faces on. Lay the points.
MTi’s FORECAST: JACKSONVILLE 27 Tennessee 3
4-Star Tampa Bay +6 over SEATTLE—Last season, our top side
play in week one was the Ravens PLUS the points over the Bucs.
Baltimore crushed Tampa 27-0. This season, we’ll go WITH the
Buccaneers.
The Bucs’ last regular season game was vs these Seahawks, as they
met in week 17, 2006. Tampa Bay was laying 3 at home, but they
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lost 23-7 to finish at 4-12. The Seahawks scored on their first two
possessions and never trailed. Seattle had already clinched the NFC
West crown at 8-7, but they played their starters to ensure that they
got over 500 for the season and earned a modicum of respect from
their playoff opponents. Here, however, they are starting a new season
and they have the Arizona Cardinals on the road next week. Arizona
thinks they “won†the NFC West division last season, as they were
4-2 vs divisional opponents, whereas the Seahawks were only 3-3.
Next week is a big game for Seattle and we expect they won’t be able
to avoid looking ahead. We have a play-against system that is perfect
since 1989, and that’s as far back as the database goes. It reads, “The
league is 0-13 ATS in week 1 as a favorite of greater than 3 and fewer
than 7 points over a non-divisional opponent who they had a better
record than, when their next game is versus a divisional opponent.â€
The Seahawks fit this system in which teams have failed to cover by
an average of 13.0 ppg.
Tampa Bay is a very nice 4-0-1 ATS when seeking revenge vs a
non-divisional opponent for a loss the previous season, covering the
spread by an average of 12.4 ppg. Last season, the Bucs nearly got
revenge vs the Bears in just this situation, losing 34-31 in overtime,
getting 13 points in Chicago.
Jeff Garcia should be a big improvement over previous Bucs’ QB’s
and Garcia fits not only Gruden’s offense, but his personality as well.
The defense will play better knowing that they have a tough, veteran
QB that will give the job done on the offensive side of the ball. Taking
the six points is the way to go here.
MTi’s FORECAST: SEATTLE 20 TAMPA BAY 17
MTi’s Totals Play of the Week
4-Star Denver at Buffalo OVER 37—Broncos QB Jay Cutler has
started five games in his NFL career and all five went over. Denver
has never scored fewer than 20 points when he started behind center
nor have they allowed fewer than 20 points when he started behind
center. Yet this is the lowest total in any game Cutler has started. In fact,
it is the only total that has been in the 30’s in Cutler’s five starts.
Another coach might be cautious with his young QB on the
road, but we look for the veteran HC Shanahan to give Cutler some
latitude here. Buffalo has suffered serious veteran losses on defense
(Takeo Spikes, London Fletcher and Nate Clements) and is very
young. With McGahee gone and rookie Marshawn Lynch taking his
place, the Bills’ defense will be on the field too much. This means
points for the Broncos and since Buffalo has the ability to complete
the long pass, we expect some points from them as well — as they
will playing from behind.
In last season’s opener, Denver lost 18-10 on the road to the
Rams, by virtue of a 5-0 turnover margin — four of which were Jake
Plummer’s (three INTs and a lost fumble). Plummer is gone and Shanahan
is now sleeping better at night. Shanahan has demonstrated a
confidence in Cutler that we have not see since the departure of John
Elway. He knows that will not force the ball and will throw it away
when necessary.
Looking at the trends, we see that the Bills are a perfect 4-0 OU
since divisional realignment as a home dog when they play on the
road in each of the next two weeks. Buffalo, who plays at Pittsburgh
and New England over the next two weeks, has eclipsed the OU
line by an average of 19.6 ppg in this situation. The Broncos have a
complementary trend. Denver, who hosts Oakland and Jacksonville
over the next two weeks is 6-0 OU as a road favorite on Sunday over
a non-divisional opponent when they play at home in each of the next
two weeks. Denver has gone over the posted number by an average of
12.2 ppg in this situation and in their last active date, week 15, 2006,
they beat the Cardinals 37-20 as a 2’ point road favorite with the OU
line at 43’. Take these two OVER this low number.
MTi’s FORECAST: Denver 27 BUFFALO 17 OVER
MTi’s Teaser Play of the Week
The Jaguars joined the league in 1995 and ever since then they are
a perfect 11-0 ATSp10* in their season opener. So, give the Jags
an extra ten points and they are perfect in their opener in franchise
history. We used Jacksonville in this spot last season and we look for
another Teaser +10 victory here.
The Ravens are a fantastic teaser team — especially vs their division
— as they have the defense to keep games close. Baltimore
is 17-0 ATSp10 vs a divisional opponent and 21-1 ATSp10 in
franchise history vs Cincinnati.
The 49ers simply do not get blown out at home by their divisional
opponents. San Francisco is 46-4-1 ATSp10 when hosting
divisional opponents and three of the losses came against the
Panthers and one vs the Saints. Both are no longer in their division.
Since divisional realignment. The 49ers are a perfect 15-0
ATSp10.
That makes our 3-team, 10-point teaser for week 1:
4-Star Jacksonville +3’, Baltimore +12’ and San Francisco +7
MTi Sports Forecasting’s 6-point, 2-team teasers were 32-16 last
regular season and 13-3 this preseason. No kidding. MTi’s teasers are
available at KillerCappers.com all season with a web debit account.
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*ATSp10 means against the spread plus ten points. That is, when used in a
ten-point teaser
at HOUSTON (6 - 10) - 9/9/2007, 1:00 PM