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AWESOME ANGLE OF THE WEEK
Marc's Awesome Angle Of The Week
Wins 67% In PLAYBOOK Last Four Years!
ATS W-L Record
Since 1990:
11-1 (92%)
DOUBLE TROUBLE PLAY ON any college road dog or favorite of 5 < points who won 4 > games last season if they return 17 > starters for the 2nd straight season vs a foe that returns 11 < starters from last season.
Play On: ARIZONA
For what it’s worth, there are no less
than eleven teams that will enter the
2007 season with 100-yard improved
defenses. They are: Arizona State,
Illinois, North Texas, Northwestern,
Ohio U, Rutgers, Texas A&M, UCLA,
Western Michigan, Wisconsin and
Wyoming.
You know what to do – do it to me
one more time...
2-MINUTE HANDICAP ATS = Against The Spread • A = Away • Con = Conference • D = Dog
F = Favorite • H = Home • Rev = Revenge • R = Road • SU = Straight-Up
Saturday September 1
East Carolina 6-1 bef BB HG… 6-2 A vs non conf… 2-5 A Game One
VA TECH 13-3 H vs non conf… 0-3 non conf favs 23 > pts
Marshall 5-2 dogs 15 > pts… 0-3 A vs non conf… 1-4 Game One
MIAMI FL 13-4 Game One (6-0 DD favs)… 0-5 vs CUSA
Virginia 1-7 A bef conf HG… 2-7 vs non conf opp w/ rev
WYOMING 5-1 in 1st of BB HG… 1-4 dogs 6 < pts… 4-8 Game One
Houston 3-0 bef RG vs Tulane… 4-1 dogs 9 > pts vs Pac 10
OREGON 4-1 Game One… 7-3 favs 14 > Pts… Sept: 4-8 as HF’s
Wash St 1-4 bef BB HG… 2-7 Game One… 3-7 dogs > 13 pts
WISCONSIN Sept: 10-2-1 home… 2-10 non conf favs 14 > pts
Ga Tech Series 3-0 L3… 9-0 A bef BB HG… 1-5 dogs 4 < pts
NOTRE DAME 1-5 HF’s 4 < pts… 1-3 bef RG vs Penn St… Sept: 2-5 HF’s
Wake Forest Series: 4-0 L4… 8-0 as dogs 7 < pts… 4-1 A in Game One
BOSTON COLL 5-1 in 1st of BB HG… 1-5 H w/ rev… 3-7 favs 7 < pts
Arizona 3-0 A vs non conf opp w/ rev… 3-7 dogs < 7 pts
BYU 7-1 Game One… 2-7 H vs Pac 10… 2-5 favs < 7 pts
Okla St 6-2 non conf dogs > 2 pts… 6-17 dogs 7 < pts
GEORGIA 4-1 Game One favs < 8 pts… 3-7 in 1st of BB HG
Kansas St 0-4 A bef BB HG… 1-5 non conf dogs 10 > pts
AUBURN 1-4 non conf HF’s 15 < pts… Sept: 2-6 vs non conf
Tennessee 1-5 dogs 4 > pts vs opp w/ rev… Sept: 3-7-2 L12 RG
CALIFORNIA 1-4 H w/ non conf rev… 6-17 as non conf favs (1-5 L3Y)
San Jose St 3-0 L3 vs Pac 10… 7-1 Game One… 3-7 dogs 14 > pts
ARIZONA ST 9-1 favs 14 > pts… 4-1 H Game One… 7-3 vs WAC
Idaho 0-4 dogs > 31 pts… 1-6 vs Pac 10… 4-8 A vs non conf
USC 7-3 favs 28 > pts (but 0-3 favs 31 > pts)… 1-3 H vs WAC
Arkansas St 4-2 A vs non conf… 0-4 bef Memphis… 0-4 A bef BB HG
TEXAS 11-3 favs > 28 pts (7-1 vs non conf)… 7-3 in 1st of BB HG
Monday September 3
Texas Tech Series: Visitor 0-4… 0-5 A Game One… 1-4 RF’s 7 > pts
SMU 4-1 H vs non conf… 6-2 dogs 14 < pts… 2-8 Game One
Florida St 1-4 as RF’s 10 < pts… 3-7 w/ conf rev (0-3 A)
CLEMSON Series: 3-1 L4 / 6-1 L7 H… 2-6 H vs conf opp w/ rev
INCREDIBLE STAT OF THE WEEK
Navy's Midshipmen are
29-1 ATS in their last 30 straight-up
road victories.
SMART BOX
NEW COLLEGE COACHES
New Head Coaches Are Moneyburners
Pair a ‘new coach lousy team’ against a ‘good team’ (one
who won six or more games last year) in season openers
and you have the makings of a massacre, as these pairings
fi nd ‘new head coach-lousy team’ combinations at 4-42
SU & 11-30-2 ATS. There are fi ve such pairings to open the
2007 season (the ‘new head coach-lousy team’ listed first):
8/30 – IOWA STATE vs Kent State,
9/1 – IDAHO vs Usc, FLORIDA INT’L vs Penn State, NORTH TEXAS vs Oklahoma and STANFORD vs Ucla.
New Head Coaches With Lousy Teams
are Lousy in Season Openers
New Head Coaches with Lousy Teams
vs Good Teams Spell Disaster
For the most part, new coaches are brought into college
football programs that are in need of a transfusion. Much like
a body that undergoes alterations during a lifestyle change of
diet and exercise, it also takes a while before fi rst year coaches
turn a program around. In fact, all teams with 1st year head
coaches are 1077-1205-35, or 46.8% ATS, since 1990.
The groundwork is laid in the fi rst year, when new coaches
install new playbooks and game plans. Consequently, these
teams really struggle out of the gate. That’s confirmed by the
fact that, since 1990:
• 1st Year College Football Head Coaches in Game One are
a 42.7% pointspread proposition, going 71-95-6 ATS.
A lousy team is often defi ned as winning four or fewer games
the previous year. We agree with that statement because:
• Four win (or less) teams, with a new 1st year head coach,
are 30-48-5 ATS in their initial game scheduled. No less than
eleven teams open the season in this role: Army, Florida
International, Idaho, Iowa St, Michigan St, North Carolina,
NC State, North Texas, Stanford, Tulane (9/8) and UAB.
BALL ST over Miami Ohio by 3
RedHawks had amassed a 28-10 SU record since 2003 but crashed
hard last year with a 2-10 disaster. Now the crew from Oxford opens
‘07 as a virtual touchdown underdog to fi rst-time series favorite Ball
State. The Testicular Ones are at odds with history: the visitor in this
matchup is currently 4-0 ATS. Miami is also a ‘mission team’ (won three
straight years prior to losing season last year) and we like mission dogs
– especially those with revenge. We’ll fade the Gonads.
RUTGERS over Buffalo by 27
Rutgers silenced their doubters last December when they carried a
10-2 record into the Texas Bowl and ground Kansas State into a 37-10
dustpile, ending the season at 9-3 ATS. The Scarlet Knights may have
some diffi culty continuing that streak here as they’ve been saddled
with a huge -31 point impost (biggest spread last year was -19.5). The
stats certainly support RU: they’re 8-2 ATS home vs non conf foes and
a sweet 7-1 ATS when playing the fi rst of back-to-back home games.
Conversely, Buffalo takes the bullet with a 2-8 ATS mark vs the Big East.
We think the Scarlet Knights have the most exciting offense this side
of West Virginia but we also know Navy is on deck. That means a big
early lead over Buffy could trigger wholesale substitutions – leaving
the back door perilously ajar.
Lsu over MISSISSIPPI ST by 20
Much is expected of LSU this season as every major college preview
publication in America has tabbed them as a Top Three team – and
the favorite to dispose of Florida in the SEC title game. Such lofty
predictions aside, LSU couldn’t have hand-picked a better opponent
to open against than the Starkville dawgs. If the Tigers’ recent 5-1
ATS (3-0 away) mark in the series doesn’t impress you, how about an
average winning margin of 30.6 ppg over the same span? That number
falls right in line with the Bulldogs’ record of despair in SEC openers,
losing by 31 ppg the previous fi ve years. With the Bengals on a 8-1
ATS run as conference road favs and Mississippi St struggling to a 3-9
ledger as double-digit home dogs, we’re thinking LSU or pass.
Kent St over IOWA ST by 7
Questions abound in Ames as Gene Chizik takes over for the well-liked
Dan McCarney, and fi nds himself with an awfully green team: only
fi ve returning starters on both sides of the ball and a miniscule 28
lettermen. Kent State is somewhat of a mystery, too. Doug Martin’s
Golden Flashes shocked everyone with a 5-2 SU start in ‘06 but lost
power as they stumbled to a 1-4 SU fi nish. Kent has enjoyed success
against non-MAC foes lately, going 4-1 ATS (3-0 as a dog of less than
14 points), and they do return a boatload of starters. With ISU a triple
qualifi er in this week’s SMART BOX (page 3), we’ll overlook Kent’s
late-season hiccup and back the Flashes as road warriors today.
Unlv over UTAH ST by 4
No matter how we examine the combined pointspread stats for these
two teams, the result always reads like a litany of failure. Utah State’s
numbers are certainly worse overall but with Rebels QB Rocky Hinds
likely unable to start (knee), any interest in the visitor fades away.
We’ll put it this way: if Lindsay and Britney bet on football, THIS is
the type of game they’d play. No rehab for us.
GAME OF THE WEEK UPSET UPSET
Utah over OREGON ST by 3
With each team returning a sizable number of starters, installing
the PAC 10 rep as 7-point chalk looks about right... until you
look further. Despite Oregon State’s 10-win season, the offense
actually regressed by 57 YPG last year – not too encouraging
when facing a schedule mined with seven bowl opponents. Utah’s
similar offensive decline was mainly due to the absence of star QB
Brian Johnson. Johnson’s back, joined by his top six wide receivers.
With Utah a sterling 21-4-1 ATS as a road dog, look for them to
improve their 16-5-1 ATS record as pups vs the PAC 10.
Tulsa over LA MONROE by 1
New Tulsa head coach Todd Graham will bring Sr QB Paul Smith
to Monroe but not much else: 11 starters plus a 0-7-1 ATS mark in
the season’s fi rst lined game makes for some light luggage. Charlie
Weatherbie’s Warhawks sprinted to the finish line in ‘06 with
fi ve consecutive ATS covers but a tough non-conference schedule
(Clemson, Texas A&M and Alabama) makes this a must-win game
if Monroe is to claim its fi rst winning season since 1994. With 17
returning starters and a solid system in place, we’ll do the Louisiana
Lean here. Tell ‘em Charlie sent ya.
Friday, August 31st
Navy over TEMPLE by 24
With only 9 starters and 26 lettermen returning for Navy in 2007,
Paul Johnson’s coaching acumen will be sorely tested. But not here.
The Temple Owls have redefi ned BAD over the past two seasons,
winning just one of 23 games while being outscored by an average of
32.5 points per contest. The disciplined Midshipmen feast on bottom
feeders like this (won 42-6 LY) and boast an amazing 19-3 ATS record
in the fi rst of back-to-back road games. Still, the Middies have a score
to settle with Rutgers next week (humiliating 0-34 loss) and could ease
up on the outclassed Owls. Our INCREDIBLE STAT on page 3 certainly
makes a case for weighing anchor with the Midshipmen.
SYRACUSE over Washington by 3
On a disastrous 5-18 SU run under Greg Robinson, the ‘Cuse has
managed just ONE conference win in two years – while being
outstatted in 19 of those 23 games! The cavernous Carrier Dome
seems to be the only advantage the Orange can still claim. Syracuse
has buried non-conference visitors to the tune of 18-2 ATS, a stat that
has continued under Robinson (5-0 ATS). With Washington appearing
to be equally confused under coach Ty Willingham, we’ll play the
Carrier card. The Syracuse program needs a major shot in the arm
and a win here could be just what the doctor ordered.
WEST VIRGINIA over W Michigan by 27
Make no mistake: Western Michigan has a quality football team,
improving their defense by 100 yards from 2006. But opening the
season in Morgantown, WV with 26 sophomores and and 26 juniors
renders the previous stat darn near meaningless. When Pat White,
Steve Slaton and the Mountaineer offense get in synch, the points
pile up quickly... regardless of who’s on the defensive side of the ball.
Though WVU’s 2-8 ATS log as home favorites of 21 or more points is
cause for concern, we can’t buck this awesome machine.
VIRGINIA TECH over East Carolina by 34
Another situation where a good team is in over their heads. ECU
brings strong numbers under Skip Holtz (18-6 ATS) but the emotional
overtones of this game profoundly favor the host Hokies. Black
armbands will be worn to honor the victims of last spring’s campus
killings and we expect a supremely motivated Virginia Tech team to
add to its 13-3 ATS ledger vs non-conf foes. This will be a very diffi cult
game to play – and to watch.
MIAMI FL over Marshall by 17
This sets up nicely for the new-look Hurricanes, who are 13-4 ATS in
Game One (6-0 as double-digit favorites). Miami’s rush defense was
the BEST in school history and eight of those starters return. With a
paltry 2-12 ATS mark in Saturday road games, Marshall might need to
bring Matthew McConaughey if they want to avoid a blowout. We like
the Canes’ chances this year under Randy Shannon but the ‘New Coach
- Game One’ hex (see SMART BOX) has us on the sidelines today.
MICHIGAN ST over Uab by 20
Former Cincy coach Mark D’antonio inherits some dreadful numbers
with these Spartans – 2-10 ATS home vs non conference opponents
and 3-10 in the fi rst of back-to-back home games – but he also gets
the luxury of three straight homers to begin his regime. Michigan
State owns the superior personnel but with both squads breaking in
brand new coaching staffs, it may not matter. The Blazers, however,
are missing the services of 30 graduated seniors and limp into town
on the heels of a 3-win season. Go green or go home.
Connecticut over DUKE by 10
No truth to the rumor that “Abandon all hope, ye who enter here’ is
inscribed above the entrance to the Duke locker room but a lack of
winning has bedeviled this program since Steve Spurrier left town. Not
so with UConn's Randy Edsall, who fashioned a 17-7 mark in 2003-04
before cluster injuries doomed him to consecutive losing seasons. With
upcoming games against Maine and Temple, Edsall is eying a fast start
for this year’s Huskies. Hard to like a Duke team that’s beaten only
ONE TEAM (VMI) in two years. We lean to the sled dogs.
Virginia over Wyoming by 1
The Cowboys can claim a 5-0 ATS record at home vs recent nonconference
foes and are members of the ‘100-yard defensive
improvement club’ (see BDK, page 2). Virginia is another one of our
‘mission teams’ but head coach Al Groh’s ‘Jekyll & Hyde’ pointspread
history confuses the situation. Groh is a respectable 26-10 ATS in
Charlottesville but put him behind the wheel and he skids to just
11-20-1 ATS – including a horrible 4-15-1 ATS mark when tackling an
avenging foe away. Road favorites with those tendencies are not to
our liking. Time to saddle up with the bronc busters from Laramie.
NEBRASKA over Nevada by 20
Nevada makes its initial foray into BIG 12 territory off a storybook
season, fi nishing 11-2 ATS and coming within two points of bringing
down mighty Miami Florida in the MPC Computers Bowl. Now they
run smack into the defending BIG 12 North champion Huskers, a
team that fi nally appears to be solving head coach Bill Callahan’s
complex schemes. Sam Keller, a 6-4 senior transfer from Arizona State,
has the arm and poise to guide the Big Red to a big year. Since the
linemaker tends to treat pointspread Cinderallas with disdain the
following season, Nebraska’s 8-3 ATS mark in Game One will help us
lean slightly to the Huskers.
MEMPHIS over Mississippi by 1
In a tightly-contested series (last two decided by 4 and 3 points), both
sides come up empty in the ATS department. Ole Miss is a dreadful
1-7 ATS lately as a road favorite while Memphis has dropped four
straight to non-conf opponents – and both are moneyburners in
Game One. However, the Tigers are one of our ‘mission teams’ for
2007 and since the series underdog currently stands 4-1 ATS, home
pup Memphis gets the bone today.
Iowa over No Illinois by 7
Harmony and light had ruled the cornfi elds for fi ve years... until The
Season From Hell crept from the shadows and engulfed the Iowa
football program in 2006. Armed with a senior QB and a wealth of
talent, Kirk Ferentz & Company never recovered from a 17-38 beating
at Ohio State and dropped six of seven games to end the season at
6-7, their worst since 2000. Northern Illinois managed to remain on
the tracks in ‘06, posting its seventh consecutive winning campaign.
Only the loss of the Huskies’ top two offensive weapons – RB Garrett
Wolfe and QB Phil Horvath – can possibly explain why the Hawkeyes
are double-digit favorites. With Iowa only 2-9 ATS in September as
of late, we’ll take Northern Illinois to continue its 20-8 ATS run as
dogs of 8 or more points.
OREGON over Houston by 20
Question: was it departed QB Kevin Kolb or Art Briles’ offensive
system that carried the Cougars to bowl games three of the last
four years? One thing is for sure – Oregon coach Mike Bellotti will
not include the Ducks’ last game, a 38-8 evisceration by BYU in the
Las Vegas Bowl, in his book of memories. At least Bellotti welcomes
back two of the Quack Attack’s main cogs, Sr QB Dennis Dixon and
RB Jonathan Stewart. The big line may have many siding with the
bowl-dog Cougars but the Duck Pond is more to our liking.
WISCONSIN over Wash St by 17
HUGE game for the Badgers as last year’s strong fi nish has them
primed for a legitimate run at the BIG 10 title and possible national
honors. The skeptical Wisconsin fans who wondered if Bret Bielema
could replace the legendary Barry Alvarez can now rest easy. The
steely-eyed Bielema owns some impressive stats after just one
season: 12-1 SU & 9-2-1 ATS, including a superb 8-0 ATS mark as a
favorite of less than 21 points, and an average winning margin of 17
ppg. WSU struggled to its 3rd consecutive non-winning season in ‘06
and will have to play inspired, mistake-free ball to have any chance
at springing the upset. With a raucous Camp Randall crowd fueling
Wisky’s 12-point per game defense, the Badgers should prevail – and
add to their 10-2-1 ATS ledger in September home games.
Georgia Tech over NOTRE DAME by 3
Notre Dame opens 2007 with a ‘green’ team, and not because they’ll
be wearing shamrock-colored jerseys. A mere eight starters and 30
lettermen return, meaning coach Charlie Weis will face a monster
rebuilding task. Both teams suffered heavy offensive losses but
while the Irish will dearly miss departed QB Brady Quinn (Browns),
the loss of inconsistent signal-caller Reggie Ball (CFL) may prove to
be a blessing in disguise for the Yellow Jackets. Tech certainly brings
the better defense to the battle and that looks to be a major edge.
The linemaker, guilty of consistently overpricing the Irish, must be
scared silly to make them just a fi eld-goal favorite. We’ll pile as many
points as we can into the back of our jalopy and ride the Ramblin’
Wreck into South Bend.
Missouri over Illinois by 1
This year’s border war is being billed as the ‘Arch Rivalry’ since it
takes place at the Edward Jones Dome in St Louis. At fi rst glance,
Missouri would seem to be the obvious choice. The Tiger offense, led
by QB Chase Daniels, set school records for passing yards and total
offense, and Mizzou has been hyped as a serious contender for this
year’s BIG 12 North title. With coach Gary Pinkel riding a 16-3 SU &
13-6 ATS wave as a non-conference favorite, the Tigers should notch
another win in a series they’ve dominated (5-1 L6), right? Not so
fast! Ron Zook’s Illini return 18 starters, own one of the country’s top
recruiting classes, and saw their defense improve by 100 ypg in 2006.
Also, our Coaches League stats (inside the Handicappers Lounge at
Playbook.com) tell us that Zook is a classic ‘good underdog’ (16-11-1
ATS), ‘bad favorite’ (9-21 ATS) coach. With Illinois aching to lose its
label as BIG 10 doormat, this could go right down to the wire.
Ucla over STANFORD by 18
The PAC 10 is loaded with quality teams this year and these Bruins
are among the best. One of only two squads to slay the Trojan beast
in 2006, UCLA returns virtually its entire starting contingent, most
notably a defense that held seven foes to under 300 yards while
improving by an astounding 164 ypg! They probably won’t have to
break a sweat to hammer a Cardinal program that lies in shambles
after a ruinous two-year stint by the incompetent Walt Harris.
Upbeat Jim Harbaugh replaces Harris but his team is light years
away from being competitive. We have a soft spot for downtrodden
home dogs opening a new season but with Harbaugh facing the
‘new coach - Game One hex’ (SMART BOX), this looks elementary,
Watson.
BOSTON COLLEGE over Wake Forest by 7
BC coach Tom O’Brien may have relocated to Raleigh but the
Eagles look to be in capable hands with former NFL assistant Jeff
Jagodzinski. J-God will look to 1st team all-ACC QB Matt Ryan (14-4
SU as a starter) to shoulder the load against a Wake Forest team that
has owned this series (4-0 L4). The Deacs were the most improved
team in the land last year but that accomplishment only lands them
on our ‘Play Against’ list this season. Still, as much as we’d like to
snap the rubberband on this revenge special (BC lost 21-14 at Wake
as 4-point favs LY), that pesky ‘new coach - Game One hex’ keeps us
on the sidelines.
Arizona over BYU by 3
With the Tucson natives growing more restless by the day, coach
Mike Stoops chose to defl ect some of the heat from his 12-22 SU
record with the Cats by hiring new OC Sonny Dykes, co-architect of
Texas Tech’s lethal spread offense. If Dykes can’t revive the lethargic
Arizona attack (17 ppg last year), Stoops may fi nd himself working
for a Norman, OK car dealership. The Wildcats will need to bring
their ‘A’ game to Provo if they intend to halt BYU’s current 10-game
winning streak. With a little help from the ANGLE OF THE WEEK
(see page 2) and the return of talented QB Willie Tuitama, the
Desert Cats could have some success against a Cougar team that has
struggled at home (2-7 ATS) against PAC 10 opposition.
5 BEST BET
If you think Army has a shot at an outright win, here’s a sobering
fact to consider: Army has NEVER won a season opener away
from the banks of the Hudson in their 122-year history! The
Cadets don’t take to the role of underdog, either, going 0-11
ATS lately as a pups of 7 or fewer points – plus they’re breaking
in a new coaching staff today. Akron just missed a 4th straight
winning season in ‘06 with an 0-2 fi nish and the Zips would love
to extract revenge for a 20-0 home whitewash loss to the Cadets
in 2005. The supposedly ‘neutral’ Cleveland site also strongly
favors J.D. Brookhart’s troops, with Browns’ Stadium a short 30-
minute ride up I-77 from the Rubber Bowl. Army strong? Zip it.
Akron over Army by 17
NC STATE over C Florida by 4
After a 2-5 SU home record in ‘06 doomed coach Chuck Amato, the
Wolfpack brain trust searched for a replacement who would make
winning in Raleigh a priority. They succeeded by luring Tom O’Brien
and his 42-17 SU home mark (34-22-1 ATS) away from Boston
College. O’Brien makes his debut today against former ACC coach
George O’Leary, who was 6-1 SU and 4-2-1 ATS vs The Pack when he
toiled for Georgia Tech. Dogged by a 1-11 ATS performance lately
as favorites of less than 10 points – and a 7-game SU losing steak
– NC State’s problems are probably too numerous for a quick fi x. In
a genuine Irish donnybrook (O’B vs O’L), we’ll take the visitors to
emerge from the den with a pointspread cover.
TCU over Baylor by 25
While the Baylor football program struggles to fi nd an identity
under Guy Morris, Gary Patterson has already taken TCU to the
next level. The Horned Frogs have racked up a 22-3 SU record the
previous two years and return nine members from a defense that
ranked 2nd nationally in 2006, allowing a mere 12 points per game.
Yes, there’s a possibility that TCU may be looking ahead to next
week’s monumental showdown with Texas but the Froggies will win
this game... and they’ve covered the number in 19 of their last 23
SU wins. PS: if you have access to fi rst-half action in college football,
you may want to put this in your pocket – TCU outscored opponents
192-13 in the opening stanzas of last year’s games.
GEORGIA over Oklahoma St by 3
Intriguing matchup between an established SEC power and an
on-the-rise program from the BIG 12. Okie State hasn’t fared well
lately as a TD or less dog (6-17 ATS) but they start strong and head
man Mike Gundy has logged a 7-1 SU mark against non conference
adversaries. Georgia’s Mark Richt has enjoyed tremendous success
when playing outside the SEC, losing only ONCE in 26 tries – but he’s
just 12-11 ATS (5-9 ATS home) in these frays. Oklahoma State clearly
owns the bigger offensive arsenal but the Dawgs hunker down
better on defense. With Georgia facing their conference opener
against South Carolina next week and the Cowboys due to line up
for a scrimmage against Florida Atlantic, we’ll back the visitors from
Stillwater in a close one.
3 BEST BET
Volunteers burst Cal’s bubble big time in last year’s seasonopener,
an 18-35 thrashing that ultimately cost the Golden
Bears a BCS bid. Well, payback’s at the door and it could be
Tennessee’s turn. Jeff Tedford’s Bears are virtually bulletproof
at Berkeley, winning 18 of their last 20 homers SU.
Equally impressive is their 35-5 ATS mark when winning
with revenge. The Davy Crockett boys, however, have not
fared well away from Knoxville recently, limping to a 3-7-2
ATS road record. Cal should know one other fact about their
visitors: when UT loses, they don’t cover. In the Vols’ last 43
SU losses, they’ve cashed the ticket just THREE times. Even
better, they’re a horrifi c 0-13 ATS when playing outside the
SEC. Bears get their revenge.
CALIFORNIA over Tennessee by 16
4 BEST BET
Joe Tiller’s stock continues to fall at Purdue, as he’s failed to reach
the 9-win mark for three straight years and hasn’t brought home
a bowl win since 2002. We’re certainly mystifi ed that the Boilers
are a TD favorite here. Yes, Toledo did disintegrate during last
season’s 5-7 disappoinment but it marked just the Rockets’ fi rst
losing season under coach Tom Amstutz. Thus, Toledo qualifi es
as another ‘mission team’ and, since Amstutz is the answer to
this week’s TRIVIA TEASER (page 2), the possibilities are good
for a successful liftoff. The Boilermakers have performed poorly
in their initial road game of the season, staggering to a 2-9-1
ATS mark as a favorite or dog of 14 or fewer points. We feel
Purdue will evolve into a winning edition in 2007 – just not here
tonight. Rocketmen soar to the outright win.
TOLEDO over Purdue by 3
KANSAS over C Michigan by 13
2006 was a year to remember for the Chippewas. They went 10-4 SU
(11-2-1 ATS), claimed the MAC championship and smashed Middle
Tennessee State in the Motor City Bowl. Unfortunately, CMU’s success
translated into the loss of head coach Brian Kelly to Cincinnati, so
new man Butch Jones is immediately hamstrung by the ‘new coach
- Game One hex’. Not so with the Jayhawks’ Mighty Mark Mangino,
a coach who likes to throw his weight around as a medium-sized
favorite (11-3 when favored by 15 or fewer pts). Kansas also shines
in home openers, winning 14 of the last 16 SU before the Lawrence
faithful. The return of QB Kerry Meier seals the deal for KU.
Colorado St over Colorado by 1
Both teams tumbled deep into the abyss last season but the greater
degree of suffering was felt in Boulder. After hiring away ultra
successful Dan Hawkins from Boise State, the Buffalo brass did not
expect to be blindsided by a 2-10 campaign that included a loss
to Montana State! Meanwhile, the countdown continues in Fort
Collins, where 14-year veteran coach Sonny Lubick is feeling the
heat from three straight losing seasons. Hawkins, who will start his
son, Cody, at quarterback, must avoid another disastrous start or the
charge of nepotism will be added to his growing list of crimes. With
the Rams covering three straight in the series and fl aunting a 13-1-1
ATS record as dogs of less than 4 points, our money’s on Sonny.
PITTSBURGH over E Michigan by 24
Head chef Dave Wannstedt served up a feast of false hope to
Panther followers last year, starting 6-1 SU versus the appetizer tray
but choking on the main course with an ugly 0-5 fi nish. Despite his
sorry 11-12 record, however, Wannstedt has managed to bully his
lesser opponents – and Eastern Michigan certainly fi ts that category.
The Eagles managed just ONE win in 2006 (12-34 since ‘03) and don’t
have the personnel to match up here. Though the sight of Pittsburgh
as such a fat favorite makes us queasy (2-11 ATS as favorites of 20 or
more points), we will note that the Steel City Cats are a perfect 14-0
ATS in their last 14 SU victories. Today’s lean cuisine? Pittsburgh.
AUBURN over Kansas St by 13
Confl icting trends abound in this matchup – and nearly all of them
are bad. The Wildcats have not won or covered versus an SEC foe in
some time, standing 0-6 SU & ATS. Adding to their misery is a 1-5 ATS
straitjacket worn in the role of non-conf DD dogs. Auburn, despite
their superb SU records, simply can’t be trusted lately as chalk in this
price range (0-7 as favorites of 6 or more points). Our confi dence is
further shaken by the fact that Tuberville has lost two of his last four
home openers outright. The more we look, the less we like...
MINNESOTA over Bowling Green by 14
A new era begins for Minnesota football as Tim Brewster replaces
10-year veteran Glen Mason... and becomes another victim of the
‘new coach - Game One hex’. That’s fi ne because we know that
Minny’s glowing early-season numbers (6-1 ATS Game One / 6-1 ATS
home vs non conference opponents) were compiled by the departed
Mason. We’re really more interested in BGSU’s 8-3 ATS road record
vs non-MAC teams - and that the BeeGees had earned fi ve straight
winning seasons before last year’s slide to 4-8. The presence of the
SMART BOX, though, begs our disinterest.
New Mexico over UTEP by 1
Troubling role reversal here: road favorite Lobos were near doubledigit
home dogs (took +9.5) in last year’s meeting, winning 26-13.
Trying to even the score with New Mexico, however, is far from
automatic, as the Lobos stand 9-1-1 ATS when playing on the road
against an avenging foe. UTEP underachieved last year under Mike
Price and their miserable 3-14 ATS tally when getting 6 or less points
at home should steer us toward the visitors. Still, Price can get the
job done against non-conference teams, winning 39 of the last 56
games SU. Maybe if there hadn’t been such big line swing...
NOTE: Home team is shown in ALL CAPS. PLAYBOOK
selection is in Bold. Should we pass or not have a
strong opinion on a game, neither team will be bolded.
Texas Tech over SMU by 3
Based on last year’s 35-3 demolition of the Mustangs by Texas
Tech, today’s double-digit spread appears justifi ed. A close look at
the numbers tell us otherwise. The Red Raiders are 0-5 ATS away
in Game One and have covered just two of 13 chances playing a
non-conference team on the road. Tech is also mighty green this
year, returning just nine starters to a complex system. Conversely,
SMU has 16 returning Ponies in the corral, poised to capture a longawaited
bowl bid under Phil Bennett. With the Mustangs standing
7-1 SU in their last eight at home, the Red Raiders will be lucky to
escape Dallas with a win.
CLEMSON over Florida St by 1
Death Valley will be rocking for this latest edition of the eagerlyanticipated
Bowden Bowl. Even though FSU is playing with double
revenge off back-to-back SU losses as favorites over the Tigers,
they’ve performed poorly in conference revenge situations...
especially away from Tallahassee. Clemson has won eight out of 10
home openers SU and has cashed six straight as home underdogs.
With Tiger coach Tommy still red-faced over last year’s dreadful
bowl loss to Kentucky, expect an all out effort from the Tiger Paw
tonight.
PENN ST over Florida Int’l by 35
He may bear little resemblance to The Energizer Bunny but Penn
State’s Joe Paterno has come right back for more. Joe Pa dropped
out of the picture near the end of last season when his leg was
broken in a nasty sideline collision. But the 80-year old legend is
prowling familiar territory again and should get his Nittany Lions
off to a good start against an FIU squad that put up the Big Zero
in 2006. Dare we say it... they also have a new head coach in
former Miami Hurricane assistant Mario Cristobal. Again, when the
pointspread climbs to such heights (-35 at this writing), there’s a lack
of relevant data for making an informed decision. In layman’s terms:
we’ll pass.
TEXAS over Arkansas St by 38
Bevo has never had a problem with trampling the meek but
Arkansas State has shown a surprising ability – for a Sun Belt team,
that is – to avoid such carnage. In 72 games with current head coach
Steve Roberts, the Jonesboro Indians have only suffered eight losses
by more than 38 points. Does that mean we like ‘em here? Are you
kidding? The Longhorns are 11-3 ATS as chalk of more than 28
points and could probably polish off Arky State with their 3rd team.
Still, a big early lead for Texas could vanish like a prairie whisper if
the Horns start thinking about Frogs instead of Indians. Turn your
back and look elsewhere.
OKLAHOMA over North Texas by 48
It’s ‘rock and a hard place’ time again. We’d love to give the Eagles
a look because of their 100-yard improvement of defense but the
addition of a brand new coaching staff puts us back to square
one. The ascending North Texas coach, however, is none other
than Lone Star high school football coaching legend, Todd Dodge.
Dodge won four Texas state championships while compiling a 78-
1 record, including 48 straight wins. TD will look to install a new
spread offense in Denton but it certainly won’t take fl ight overnight
– especially against this gang of headhunters. OU faces a plight
similar to most of the other big favorites this week: a dangerous
opponent awaits them on the horizon. Still, the Sooners are in a
foul mood after being ambushed recently by the NCAA and they
may not let up here.
ARIZONA ST over San Jose ST by 14
Spartans coach Dick Tomey has a history with ASU as he spent many
years on the sidelines with the Sun Devils’ blood enemy, Arizona.
Tomey acquitted himself well, going 8-5-1 SU during the rivalry. Even
so, if his San Jose State team cracks the .500 barrier in 2007, it will
be the FIRST TIME in 15 years that the Spartans have won in backto-
back seasons. That’s not the sort of thing that strikes fear into the
hearts of a PAC 10 squad like Arizona State. The 14-point favored
Sun Devils are 9-1 ATS lately in this price range and have covered
six straight against non-conf teams. They also own one of the few
defensive units that improved by 100 yards last year. A problem,
however, does remain: new head coach (you know what that
means) Dennis Erickson takes over for the departed Dirk Koetter.
The bottom line here is we’re going to leave this alone.
SOUTHERN CAL over Idaho by 49
What the hell was the Idaho Athletic Director thinking when he
signed on for this? USC has been annointed by so many preseason
publications that it conjures visions of coach Pete Carroll observing
the weekly goings-on from a golden throne on the sidelines.
And make no mistake – when you waltz onto the fi eld laying 45
points, you must treat your opponent as a sacrifi cial lamb waiting
to be bloodied and vanquished. We could supply you with endless
numbers extolling USC’s pointspread virtue but, in truth, the Vandals
have had little to do with any of it. Oh, did we fail to mention the
fact that Idaho has (gulp) a new head coach? Now we know what
Marlon Brando saw in his mind’s eye as he mumbled, “The horror...
the horror.â€
SOUTH CAROLINA over La Lafayette by 27
Steve Spurrier has certainly made South Carolina competitive
in a hurry but his career ATS numbers in non-conference tilts are
downright mediocre: 27-29-1. Unfortunately for the Cajuns, they’ll
be marching into Columbia without the services of 4-year starting QB
Jerry Babb. Spurrier’s signal caller, Blake Mitchell, WILL be returning
along with 16 other starters and 54 lettermen. South Carolina barely
eked out a 14-7 victory (laying 24 pts!) over Lafayette in 2003 but that
was under the direction of the stodgy Lou Holtz. Spurrier’s armory
has a great deal more weapons but with the Georgia Dawgs waiting
between the hedges, this game is just too rich for our blood.
ARKANSAS over Troy by 20
If there’s any man in America who can’t wait for the college
football season to start, it’s the Razorbacks’ Houston Nutt. The 9-
year Arkansas coach has been beaten from pillar to post over the
transfer of star QB Mitch Mustain, as well as other assorted team
problems and personal transgressions. Perhaps the best medicine
for Nutt will be getting the ball to sensational RB Darren McFadden
and simply turning him loose. Winning heals a lot of wounds and
with eight home games in 2007, the Hog family should eventually
pull together. Troy will not be an easy foe to subdue, particularly
with the return of Sr QB Omar Haugabook, the Sun Belt Conference
Player of the Year. McFadden will prove to be too much for the
Trojan defense but Arky may not make the big number.
Mid Tenn St over FLORIDA ATL by 3
They say you can’t be the best without beating the best but for the
Blue Raiders to be scheduling the likes of Louisville and LSU is just
plain masochistic. Fortunately for the defending Sun Belt champs,
those two games take place after today’s clash with lowly Florida
Atlantic. MTSU doesn’t mind taking the bus out of Murfreesboro:
they won four consecutive road games last season. Add the Raiders’
6-1 ATS mark in Game One to FAU’s 2-6 ATS failure vs conference
foes at home, and we’ll head to the blue corner for today’s bout.
BEST BET SELECTIONS THIS WEEK'S BEST BETS FOR WEEK ENDING MONDAY SEPTEMBER 3, 2007
3* CALIFORNIA
4* TOLEDO
5* AKRON
- 8/30/2007, 8:00 PM 
