Tonight I have a strong 3 unit play and a doggie:
3*** Play:
Roll with me on Cleveland/Tampa Bay under 10.
I know, the potent Tribe bats vs. the Drays and their shady pen.
Here's why:
Jake the Snake Westbrooke
You rolled with me and won on Westbrooke as an Under pitcher. Look at his numbers in his last 5...
**
Date Opp SC Dec IP R ER H BB SO HR H/Open H/Close Tot Op Tot Cl
7/23/07 BOS 2-6 L 6.0 5 5 10 4 1 0 -135 -130 10.5-125 10.5-120
7/28/07 MIN 2-3 7.0 2 2 4 3 3 1 +140 +135 8.5-110 8.5-110
8/02/07 TEX 5-0 W 6.0 0 0 5 1 5 0 -175 -180 10.0-120 9.5-120
8/07/07 at CWS 2-1 W 8.0 1 1 2 0 5 0 +117 +113 10.0-130 10.0-130
8/12/07 NYY 3-5 L 7.0 4 4 9 2 2 2 +115 +130 10.0-110 10.0-105
**In his last 5 the total hasn't gone over 8...all 5 are under.
**I know this pitcher well. He is pitching with control lately and it has shown. He gets out of trouble and avoids the walks. One of the leading DP turners in the MLB. Think a poor man's Brandon Webb bat breakin junk pitcher.
The pub is slammin the over
But again, let's look at the numbers:
**Tampa Bay is 6-3-1 ATS on the under in their last 10..4 out of 5 under in their last 5.
**The Drays offense is averaging a mighty 2.0 runs per game scored in their last 6 games.
**Cleveland is 7-3 ATS on the under in their last 10.
**Cleveland is 4-0 ATS on the under in their last 4.
It's a risky play as the Tribe bats can bust out and nail the over all by themselves early. The Drays bullpen sucks..and I'm being polite. However, I think Jake will go deep for the Indians and Hammel is gonna be better than anticipated. I'm praying I have under 4 by the 8'th inning, but we'll see what happens. I see a surprisingly low scoring game as Jake will have to labor against an inspired effort from Hammel.
ROLL WITH ME ON UNDER 10
3 units for me
Dog Play:
1.5 units on Arizona. I'll take Micah Owings, I'll take the hot Dbacks. I'll take their unsung lineup and MLB leading record in 1 run games, I'll take the Braves offensive lapse and their still suspect bullpen. Seems too easy and the wrong team's favored. I know Buddy Carlysle has pitched well in the back end, but I ask you, are Braves backers betting tradition or betting in the now. With Renteria on the DL and Kelly Johnson slumping, I don't see the lead off hitters getting free swingers like Jones and Tex a good at bat. We'll see what happens but I think Zona wins in the late innings.
1.5 units on Zona +140 ML @ Atlanta
GL..got a MLS play up on that thread.