PC7588 Week 12/13 picks
I am still in Omaha but an off day today so here's the winners.
Nice to see everyone hitting on Milwaukee on Monday...let's see how Yovanni does in his 2nd start. If you have Doug Davis or Claudio in fantasy, your 50/50 if he stays in the rotation...
Here's what I got for tonight:
ROLL WITH ME ON ARIZONA/BALTIMORE OVER
Here's why..
the pub is on the over, the trends all support an over, and having Webb on my fantasy team, I can tell you he has very rarely been lights out.
Orioles are 6-0 on the over in their last 6.
Cabrera in his last 5 has seen the closing total average 10.1 runs per game.
In Cabrera's last start against the Dbacks the final total was 12.
The O's bullpen is garbage and it continues tonight...
ROLL WITH ME ON Dbacks/O's over 8 -110
3***
Webb and Cabrera must go
posted by pc7588
22 replies
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PC tough push,with 12 left on base!
posted by smittty
June 23 2007 1:31pm -
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Back in the house...
1-0-1 this week hit the GOY for 10 units and pushed yesterday on O's over.
Tonight....
Roll with me on the Halos/Bucs under 7 1/2.
Snell/Escobar must go.
GL boyz..small for me 2 units.
posted by pc7588
June 23 2007 7:54pm -
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lost last night...1-1-1 ATS on the week but still way up from the GOY money.
Here's my two pack today:
ROLL WITH ME ON YANKS UNDER 9 1/2
2 UNITS
BEST BET:
ROLL WITH ME ON SEATTLE -35 ML
3 UNITS
GOOD LUCK FELLAS
posted by pc7588
June 24 2007 1:32pm -
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Bangin day yesterday as we went 2-0 for 5 units.
Week 12/13: 3-1-1 ATS (+12.8 Units..GOY +10, Yesterday +5, -2.2 on Friday)
MONDAY:
BEST BET:
White Sox/Drays under 10 -115...this line should go down over the course of the day. Both pitchers can go low and frankly, I thought it would be more around 8. I've already seen this line drop at bookmaker and donbest, but if you shop, you can still get 10. Danks will be the moneyball for us today.
3 UNITS ON WHITE SOX UNDER 10 -115
Other Play:
Back to the honey hole...I'll play on KC/Anaheim over 9 +105. I will play the over in this series every day for 2 units as a trend play I roll on.
KC OVER 9 +105..2 units
Good luck boys....have a great day.
posted by pc7588
June 25 2007 10:11am -
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1-1 ats yesterday but won 1.0 unit as the best bet hit and the Angels over lost.
I'll be back with my Game of the week tonight and my June Game of the Month on Saturday. Should be a good week.
Good luck fellas.
Week 12/13: 4-2-1 ATS +13.8 Units
posted by pc7588
June 26 2007 8:40am -
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TUESDAY
Don't believe the hype..the Card is wonderful tonight and I really feel strongly that I'm gonna smoke tonight. Playing A LOT of games but going for units.
2 Units apiece:
Baltimore +145 ML..>Guthrie must go
St. Louis +190 ML>...Perez must go..he's starting to fall apart.
Cincy +135ML>..Homer Bailey must go..and go he will.
I WILL NOT LOSE ALL 3 of these games listed above.
System play Day #2:
KC over 8 1/2...2 units
BEST BET:
Detroit over 10 1/2...it feels like a sucker line but I'm playing it. Robertson has faltered lately and the Tigers have been one of the best hitting teams in MLB lately. Let's not forget the Rangers recently had a 4 game winning streak and were knocking the socks off the ball.
3 unitd Detroit over 10 1/2
BIG CARD FOR ME IN UNITS..but more systems than anything else. Hopefully if the dogs bark loud tonight I will slay my man.
Good luck...if you only want to ride two or three plays..
Best Bet..1st
Baltimore..2nd
Cincy..3rd
**Note my GOW is downgraded beacuse of a pitching change in Detroit..I'm just playing the total now in that one..Originally liked Texas RL with Koronka..but late scratch made me shoot the over.
posted by pc7588
June 26 2007 6:20pm -
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I didn't even see the line but I'm playing this as well...
DAN HAREN AND THE OAKLAND A's -110 ML against Cliff Lee.
another 3 units for me.
Big card, but I have too..just love those dogs too much.
posted by pc7588
June 26 2007 6:23pm -
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nice hits PC... way to go!
posted by southern5061
June 27 2007 8:08am -
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Results from the big card Tuesday:
Baltimore +145 ML..>W +2.9 Units
St. Louis +190 ML>...W+3.8 Units.
Cincy +135ML>..L -2 units.
KC over 8 1/2...W +2 Units
BEST BET:
Detroit over 10 1/2...W +3 units
Oakland..L-3.3 units
Total:
4-2 ATS +6.4 Units on the day
For Week 12/13: 8-4-1 +20.2 Units
I'll be back with a day play around 9:00ish AM CST...thanks for the props southern...did real well in MLB...hated I added on Oakland but that should have hit too and I got drilled in the Copa America.
Peace..see you boys in a few.
posted by pc7588
June 27 2007 8:19am -
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WEDNESDAY AM:
Day Game Action:
Day 3 of system:
KC/Anaheim over 9
Weaver/De La Rosa must go
2 units
Day game best bet:
Roll with me on Seattle over 9. I know Matsuzaka is on the hill, but that doesn't mean he's untouchable. The M's bats have been hitting well and I think both sides will get to 4 runs which guarantees a push at worst. Just can't see DM (I will never call a Japaenese player by his first name..it's our fucking game) posting a shutout or low run support against the M's at home.
ROLL WITH ME ON SEATTLE OVER 9..2units best bet of the day.
posted by pc7588
June 27 2007 8:43am -
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I'll say 0-2 because I cant see the M's game going over as I watch it.
For Week 12/13: 8-6-1 +15.8 Units (0-2 on Wednesday AM -4.4 units)
Wednesday Night:
Play #1:
You gotta love Harang getting juice again in this spot. I think the Reds are gonna dominate tonight behind their fireballer. He has good numbers going this year. Did you know Harang hasn't lost since Mid may and is unbeaten or hasn't gotten the loss in his last 7 games started?
I'm going to back the Reds tonight because they have the ability to turn this one into a laugher. Harang is 3-0 with a 1.83 ERA in his last 3 starts and it's time to stop the 3 game losing streak.
ROLL WITH ME ON CINCY ML +115 ML @ Philly
(Moyer must go with Harang...look at Moyer's numbers against the Reds, should be a good cover for us)
Play #2:
I rarely post parleys but the only one I posted as a play hit. Roll with me on this two teamer:
Mets-205/Zona-130
Mets will drill Reyes tonight and the Cards pen is taxed after two extra inning games in a row. Glavine should cruise but he'll give up 3 or 4 to the Cards sticks. I like the over as well but think the Mets cruise tonight against 0-9 Reyes.
Risking 1 unit to win 1.7 units
GL
posted by pc7588
June 27 2007 6:27pm -
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went 2-0 last night, hit on the best bet night and won the parley, but my book didn't pay me on the Mets game so I only got a single win and not a parley win on the other half of the parley.
Week 12/13 results thru Wed night:
10-6-1 ATS +19.1 Units (won 2.3 units on Cincy, won 1 unit on mets)
I'll be back with my AM play around 10:30 AM CST...have a great morning.
posted by pc7588
June 28 2007 9:12am -
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I received an email asking if I bet how I lay it out on GP..that was a good question so I'll answer it publicly. My best bet is always my largest bet. If I post units, that's the units I'm playing. If I don't post units..it's the standard 2 unit play for me. I rarely venture into the 10 unit range, only a couple of times a year in each sport, but anyways, I hope that answer is sufficient. Oh yeah..the best bet is the one I recommend if I have multiple listed...enough of that.
I got a weird card tonight but I like it..I'm still scratchin my head at the 1-3 ATS record I've posted in the Copa in soccer. I thought I had the first round on lockdown and have gotten smoked so far...anyways...
THURSDAY NIGHT>
Best Bet:
ROLL WITH ME ON THE WHITE SOX/TAMPA UNDER 8 1/2 for 2 units.
Funny game to look at. The total sits at 8 1/2 with two teams who average about 8.5 runs a game. You throw the "aces" in tonight with Kazmir and Vazquez. Both of these guys can pitch brilliantly and I expect a solid effort out of both. here's why:
The Drays are looking to avoid the 4 game sweep at home behind their ace. Kaz is 2-0 against the White Sox with a 3.21 ERA in 3 starts. Vazquez counters coming off a 2-1 no deicision in which he had 8Ks. As bad as the Sox bats are hitting, the Drays haven't offered much either. I see both pitchers going deep into the game and the Sox pen making sure we don't go over. As long as we don't hear "Mike McDougal comes on in relief" and we'll be okay. On the other side of the hill, Kazmir is a gunslinger and will go 100+ tonight for us. We need to get to the 9'th where Jenks and Reyes should provide over drama..but keep it under. The first 3 games in this series have all gone under and the public is uncertain at right around 50%.
I'll take the good pitchers and two teams who are in desperate need of a win. The Sox are on the fringe of being done and heads will roll from the GM position if they don't keep up their winning ways. The effort to re sign Buehrle also bodes well for a competitive 2nd half from the Sox. I like the under because we have 2 good hurlers and the teams are desperate for a win. Both team's offense has been somewhat dormant lately and I see more of the same tonight.
ROLL WITH ME ON WHITE SOX UNDER 8 1/2
2 units
Play #2:
Roll with me on Cincinatti under 11.
I know it sounds crazy but after diggin, I have to roll on this. Belisle is 4-1 on the road with an ERA just under 4. Eaton is 2-0 lifetime (hasn't faced since 04) against the Reds. You saw how bad the bullpens were last night as we sweated the Reds victory, but I can't see it again tonight. Pub is hammering the over at almost 90% and Belisle can get it done with his K's. Eaton had a bad outting last time out and this might be the cure. I like this play more than the side, but I'm very tempted to throw down on the Reds as well.
ROLL WITH ME ON ON CINCY under 11
2 units
Play #3:
Roll with me on Houston/Col over 8 1/2 +100.
Oswalt has gotten lit up like a Christmas tree lately and Cook has been just as bad. Don't let big boy Roy fool ya. This game will go over 10 in my opinion but it looks so easy that I'm backing it down. I think we'll see the over by the 7'th but this play just looks so easy I'm scared of it.
1 unit on Houston over 8 1/2
posted by pc7588
June 28 2007 5:23pm -
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Bro Stro's/Rok's just dropped to 8..lets roll
posted by hilly
June 28 2007 7:40pm -
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Good night last night..2-1 in MLB and hit my Copa soccer play.
Week 12/13 results thru Wed night:
12-7-1 ATS +19.9 Units for Week 12/13.
I'll be back with a day play on the double header games once they post the lines. I got my eye on for a 3 unit play that I really like if the line is right.
Have a great Friday morning.
posted by pc7588
June 29 2007 7:18am -
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Thanks for the pics PC. You saved bad day for me. That Houston/Colo looked lost when I went to bed.
posted by sherlock37
June 29 2007 7:29am -
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Today's day action:
I'm backing my boy Yovanni again today. I'll take +120 on that cat against anyone. Let's not forget the Cubs have turned to Carlos Marmol as their closer because no one can seem to get it done. I would advocate the under as well but both bullpens are capable of blowing up. Hill has been a monster for the Cubs but Yovanni is special and he'll show it again today as he fights to stay in the rotation. Brewer's bats do well against Cubs pitching and I don't see any reason to not back the Brew Crew.
ROLL WITH ME ON MILWAUKEE +120
2 units to win 2.4
Sherlock...glad you hit bro
posted by pc7588
June 29 2007 12:23pm -
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I'll update tomorrow..I'm still in shock I lost on the Walk off on Milwaukee.
Tonight:
BEST BET: 2 units on Dustin McGowan and the BJays to take it to Washburn and the M's.
2 Units Toronto +130
GL tonight..play with caution.>I'm still bitter about the Brew Crew. But I think McGowan has enough in the tank to get by Washburn.
posted by pc7588
June 29 2007 8:44pm -
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Real bad day for me..0-2 in MLB
Week 12/13 results:
+15.9 units
12-9-1 ATS
see ya by 12:00PM
posted by pc7588
June 30 2007 8:33am -
0 likes
Record above..
SATURDAY AM
Best Bet: Kansas City over 9 1/2.
Alex Gordon and company are finally hitting the ball well. I've been impressed with Joey Gathwright's contributions at the top of the order as well. Danks is a good pitcher, but the Royals should get to 5 or more. Let's not forget former Royal Mike McDougal is waiting in the wings. This cat is the king of blowing holds and I hope we don't need him, but he's a nice ace to have. IN addition, the Sox bats have looked good as well.
ROLL WITH ME ON KC OVER 9 1/2
2 units
Play #2:
Roll with me on Houston/Colorado over 9 -105.
They have been tearing the cover off the ball in this series and neither pitcher merits this total in my opinion. Both bullpens have looked bad as well and I think we see more big sluggin in the Juice field.
Roll with me on Houston over 9
2units
PLay #3:
Roll with me on the Yanks over 10 1/2. Again the pitchers merit the high total. I see both bats going off today in the Big Apple.
Yanks over 10 1/2
1 unit
Play #4:
2 Team Parley...MIlwaukee (Sheets -120) and Angels (Colon -140)
Milwaukee blew the win yesterday and they have their ace on the hill to get a W today. Colon has been terrible recently but the Angels always seem to have the O's number. Their offense is rollin.
1 unit to win 2 units
Good luck fellas.
posted by pc7588
June 30 2007 11:03am -
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I'm taking the day off from posting. Got smoked the last 2 days and will take the day off. Have a great sunday, sorry for the past 2 days, we'll see ya monday.
Week 12/13 results:
+9.5 units
12-13-1 ATS
Yesterday..0-4 -6.4 units
Gl boyz...I am playing today, but don't want to post since I had a bad two days, if anything really jumps out I'll post but otherwise I'll see ya Monday. Good luck today.
posted by pc7588
July 1 2007 9:36am -
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SUNDAY
These are too good to pass up..Record above. I'm gonna go out this week a winner, not on a 5 game losing streak..
Play #1:
San Diego -110
3 units.
Germano/Billingsley must go.
Play #2
Baltimore under 8 1/2 -115
2 units
Lackey/Guthrie must go.
Dog system:
1 unit on Oakland +130 (Haren/whoever)
1 unit on Tampa Bay +130 (Shields/Lee)
GL boyz...Love Germano and Guthrie today. Two great pitchers flying under the radar. If you play fantasy you know both of these cats have been unstoppable. They have good ERA's and should have better records, but I'll take what they can give. If your not a die hard baseball fan then you won't know much about those two...but Lacky, Guthrie, the A's pen..that game isn't goinv over 7. And the Pads are very mature this year and have great back end work in the Pen.
Oakland keeps the offense going and they will win this game. haren and now Harden will keep them low. I'm just worried the Yanks outlast them as I think the later it gets, the more it favors the Yanks.
Shields still is pitching well and I think Cliff Lee is very overrated. We'll see how that goes down but the Rays better have a big lead in the late innings if they have to rely on that pen against the Vaunted Tribe offense at home.
posted by pc7588
July 1 2007 12:19pm