I received an email asking if I bet how I lay it out on GP..that was a good question so I'll answer it publicly. My best bet is always my largest bet. If I post units, that's the units I'm playing. If I don't post units..it's the standard 2 unit play for me. I rarely venture into the 10 unit range, only a couple of times a year in each sport, but anyways, I hope that answer is sufficient. Oh yeah..the best bet is the one I recommend if I have multiple listed...enough of that.
I got a weird card tonight but I like it..I'm still scratchin my head at the 1-3 ATS record I've posted in the Copa in soccer. I thought I had the first round on lockdown and have gotten smoked so far...anyways...
THURSDAY NIGHT>
Best Bet:
ROLL WITH ME ON THE WHITE SOX/TAMPA UNDER 8 1/2 for 2 units.
Funny game to look at. The total sits at 8 1/2 with two teams who average about 8.5 runs a game. You throw the "aces" in tonight with Kazmir and Vazquez. Both of these guys can pitch brilliantly and I expect a solid effort out of both. here's why:
The Drays are looking to avoid the 4 game sweep at home behind their ace. Kaz is 2-0 against the White Sox with a 3.21 ERA in 3 starts. Vazquez counters coming off a 2-1 no deicision in which he had 8Ks. As bad as the Sox bats are hitting, the Drays haven't offered much either. I see both pitchers going deep into the game and the Sox pen making sure we don't go over. As long as we don't hear "Mike McDougal comes on in relief" and we'll be okay. On the other side of the hill, Kazmir is a gunslinger and will go 100+ tonight for us. We need to get to the 9'th where Jenks and Reyes should provide over drama..but keep it under. The first 3 games in this series have all gone under and the public is uncertain at right around 50%.
I'll take the good pitchers and two teams who are in desperate need of a win. The Sox are on the fringe of being done and heads will roll from the GM position if they don't keep up their winning ways. The effort to re sign Buehrle also bodes well for a competitive 2nd half from the Sox. I like the under because we have 2 good hurlers and the teams are desperate for a win. Both team's offense has been somewhat dormant lately and I see more of the same tonight.
ROLL WITH ME ON WHITE SOX UNDER 8 1/2
2 units
Play #2:
Roll with me on Cincinatti under 11.
I know it sounds crazy but after diggin, I have to roll on this. Belisle is 4-1 on the road with an ERA just under 4. Eaton is 2-0 lifetime (hasn't faced since 04) against the Reds. You saw how bad the bullpens were last night as we sweated the Reds victory, but I can't see it again tonight. Pub is hammering the over at almost 90% and Belisle can get it done with his K's. Eaton had a bad outting last time out and this might be the cure. I like this play more than the side, but I'm very tempted to throw down on the Reds as well.
ROLL WITH ME ON ON CINCY under 11
2 units
Play #3:
Roll with me on Houston/Col over 8 1/2 +100.
Oswalt has gotten lit up like a Christmas tree lately and Cook has been just as bad. Don't let big boy Roy fool ya. This game will go over 10 in my opinion but it looks so easy that I'm backing it down. I think we'll see the over by the 7'th but this play just looks so easy I'm scared of it.
1 unit on Houston over 8 1/2
