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   This is the most boring system to bet in the history of MLB..however, with that being said, it is very hard to lose money on it.

   Baseball Underdog System

   April 22, 2007

   By Tony Stoffo

   VegasInsider.com

   Editor’s Note: This piece is an excerpt of Tony Stoffo’s highly regarded Money Management Book for the novice and professional gambler. It focuses on 12 betting systems, charts, analysis and wagering professionals. It can be purchased on VI along with Tony’s baseball products.

   Baseball Underdog System

   Spreading the Truth About Point Spreads

   Gamblers love their favorites. Oddsmakers set a point spread on a game, and the natural tendency of even many longtime bettors is to think this represents how much a team is "favored" over another to win the game.

   Of course, it often has little to do with that, since oddsmakers set the spreads based on public perception with the sole goal of getting 50% of bettors to wager on each team, so "the house" comes out ahead no matter whether the favorite or the underdog triumphs.

   A prime example is the 2003 Super Bowl, on which oddsmakers all across the country made the aging yet offensive-oriented Oakland Raiders 4.5-point favorites over the young, defense-minded Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Avid followers of football saw great value in this spread, knowing that defense most often wins big contests. But fans love offense, not defense, and fans who gamble love favorites.

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   So, many bettors stuck their heads in the sand and plunked down their money on the Raiders. Some sportsbooks reported bets on Oakland -4.5 outweighing those on Tampa Bay +4.5 by an astounding 9-1 ratio. In the end, the Buccaneers blasted the Raiders, and most books made out like bandits, because too few gamblers put enough stock in the value of underdogs.

   At +4.5, Tampa Bay virtually settled the affair before halftime, mounting a 17-point lead, since the only time a Super Bowl team has rallied from a 10-point deficit to win was in 1988, when Washington scored the final six touchdowns in a 42-10 trouncing of Denver.

   Of course, sports fans and gamblers can be forgiven if they have a deeply ingrained misconception of what point spreads represent. Remember, the media -- especially TV and radio broadcasters -- must tap-dance around the issue of gambling, since it's illegal in 99% of the U.S. In fact, if broadcasters mention the point spread at all, it may be in passing, such as, "The Vikings are favored by a touchdown over the Packers."

   The big hypocrisy is that point spreads, especially on football and basketball, can be found in almost every newspaper in the country, even those hundreds of miles from the nearest legal casino or sportsbook.

   Shopping For Baseball Bargains

   When I was extolling the virtues of gambling on baseball (and hockey) in the previous chapter, I intentionally neglected to mention that much of the value on betting moneylines comes from the financial upside of going with underdogs. I waited to get into this until now, knowing that this chapter is devoted entirely to the topic.

   I never fully understood the power of underdogs until I met Andrew in Vegas. He's a professional gambler but "works" only 6 months a year, during baseball season. Andrew lives -- and lives well -- on the money he makes during the season, averaging about $20,000 profit per month.

   Remarkably enough, he doesn't even work that hard on making money during baseball season. All told, it takes Andrew about 15 minutes each morning to make his picks for the day, then he goes and plays a round of golf and is home with the wife and kids by mid-afternoon.

   Once I saw the kind of money he was making and how effortless he seemed to be doing it, I told Andrew I had to know his method. At first he was reluctant, like a grandmother with her secret, prize-winning peach pie recipe. But, like most people with a great secret, he eventually spilled the beans.

   It turns out, he bets only on baseball and he bets only on underdogs. And, like I said, it takes him less time to determine who he's betting each day than it does for him to get from the first tee to the second hole on the golf course. Much less time, in fact, since he's not much of a golfer.

   Now I'm going to teach you his secret, which I've modified slightly to maximize profits. I call it, fittingly, The Baseball Underdog System.

   The Set-Up

   Each of my 12 Money-Management Programs are composed of a Series of bets that are either predetermined by me or can be quickly calculated by you using a Formula I'll provide you.

   For the purposes of our examples in this chapter, all bets are at varying moneyline odds, which will be explained with each scenario.

   The Program

   The Baseball Underdog System is based on a law of averages showing that, over the long term, MLB underdogs beat favorites about 4 games out of 9 (or 44% of the time). Even with moneyline odds on underdogs earning you better than even money -- meaning that at +130 you lay $10 to win $13 -- you need to rack up better than a record of 4 wins and 5 losses every day to make substantial profits.

   For example, let's assume you bet $10 on each of 9 underdogs today, with each getting +130 moneyline odds. If you win 4 games, you profit $13 each or $52 total. But the $50 you lose when 5 favorites win gives you a slim $2 profit overall. So instead of simply betting on the underdogs in every game, you must weed out about two-thirds of the games by following my 3 simple criteria:

   First, eliminate games in which the underdog has lost 3 or more games in a row and/or the favorite has won 3 or more games in a row. This prevents you from throwing away money on an underdog on a bad skid or an underdog facing a red-hot offensive team whose bats may more than make up for its own mediocre pitching.

   Second, eliminate games in which the moneyline odds on the underdog are greater than +150 or so. If the odds are any higher than this, there's undoubtedly a good reason, most probably that the underdogs are seriously out-manned. So scratch such games and move on.

   Third, eliminate games in which the underdog is facing one of the Top 20 pitchers in the league, according to earned-run average (ERA). While various newspapers and Internet Web sites can provide you with ERA statistics, I strongly encourage you to use the adjusted (or "normalized") ERA rankings compiled by Jeff Sagarin(R) and displayed on USA Today's Web site at SAGARIN RATINGS in which Sagarin uses somewhat complicated data to assign each pitcher in the league a number for what his ERA "should be." He determines an ERA for every pitcher as compared to other pitchers' performances from 1946-1999, resulting in a stat he has dubbed an NPERA (or "normalized predicted earned-run average").

   When you go the USA Today's site, you'll notice that it lists the American and National Leagues separately, and also that it breaks pitchers into categories according to number of innings pitched. For each pitcher ranked, there is much information included, but you're primarily interested in the first 5 columns, which list the pitcher's rank in the entire league, his name, his team, whether he's a righty or a lefty, and his NPERA: Rank Name Team R/L NPERA #1 Mike Mussina NYY R 1.99

   Because ranked pitchers are broken into categories according to number of innings pitched, make sure you don't overlook a pitcher who's been injured or just moved from a reliever to a starter role or otherwise hasn't racked up enough innings to make the primary list. He still could be among the league's better pitchers yet is ranked highly in a category of lesser innings pitched further down the screen. This applies mostly early in the season.

   Following the 3 primary criteria, on a day with a full slate of as many as 15 games, you should be left with between 3 and 9 underdogs on which to wager. Using our example Formula, you will put $20 on each game's moneyline.

   Don't forget that all bettors should have access to more than one sportsbook -- local bookies and/or online gambling sites -- and it's never more important than when betting on the moneyline. Odds can vary wildly from one bookie or site to the next, and you should shop around for the ones giving you the best possible odds on any particular game. For instance, if you're betting 5 games on a particular day, you may want to spread those wagers over 2 Web sites and 3 local bookies, depending on who's giving the best odds on each underdog.

   The Goal

   The simple objective is to bet only on baseball underdogs that haven't lost 3 or more games in a row and are playing against favorites that haven't won 3 or more games in a row and are starting mediocre pitchers.

   The Series

   Unlike in most of my Programs, there is no set Series for this System. Instead, your bets will be based on a percentage of your Personal Betting Bankroll, the Formula for which is below. Of course, the percentage will increase as your Bankroll builds.

   The Formula

   The simple Formula for setting the Series Amounts in The Baseball Underdog System is .0125 x your Bankroll = Series Amount.

   This means you bet 1.25% of your Bankroll on every game. So, if your Bankroll is $1,600, you would bet $20 on every game. By playing an average of 5 games per day, that means you'll be betting $100 a day.

   This protects your Personal Betting Bankroll in the same way as dividing it into 4 Betting Blocks. In fact, you would have to go 0 wins and 80 losses -- or 16 days without a win -- to entirely deplete your Bankroll.

   If you think this starting Series Amount is too low -- and, frankly, with a $1,600 Bankroll, it may be -- you can raise it to 2.5% of your Bankroll. This means you would have to go 0 wins and 40 losses -- or 8 days without a win -- to go through your whole Bankroll.

   The Rules

   1) Each day, check the American and National League schedules and automatically eliminate any games in which the moneyline odds on the underdogs are greater than +150 or so.

   2) Of the games that remain, eliminate any games in which the underdogs have lost 3 or more games in a row or the favorites have won 3 or more games in a row. (This information is included in almost all newspapers' daily MLB standings.)

   3) Of the games that are left, eliminate any games in which the favored team's pitcher is among the Top 20 of the AL or NL in ERA, or NPERA, as determined by Jeff Sagarin(R) on USA Today's Web site (see above for a further explanation).

   4) On a day with a full slate of games, you should be left with 3 to 9 games to bet on between the AL and NL. Make $20 wagers (according to our example Bankroll) on the underdog in each game, shopping around at all your favorite bookmakers for the best possible moneyline odds.

   6) Before making the next day's bets, roll your profits into your Personal Betting Bankroll and increase your wagers accordingly, putting 1.25% of your Bankroll on each game.

   Under the Gun (and the Total) With Two Great Pitchers

   When betting on The Baseball Underdog System, I always incorporate a second set of plays every day on games in which both pitchers are ranked in the Top 20 in the league -- always on the "under" total set by oddsmakers. As you might expect, these "pitchers duels" often go under the total set by oddsmakers, usually somewhere between 7.5 and 9 runs.

   To help you see how this works, I've included them in the real-life examples below, which feature an entire week from an actual MLB season using The Baseball Underdog System.

   The Proof

   Rather than merely give you hypothetical examples of how to win using The Baseball Underdog System, I am including actual examples of a full week of bets on MLB play from Monday, May 12, 2003, to Sunday, May 18, 2003.

   Note that this week was chosen entirely at random as my collaborator, Nelson Williams, and I finalized this book for publication, not because it proved the System any better or worse than any other week might have. For the sake of tallying profits, all moneyline wagers on underdogs are $20 and all "totals" bet on the "under" are $22 (to win $20).

   You'll see that for Day 1, a Monday with a light MLB slate, I've included all the scheduled games, with explanations of why each game was either wagered on or eliminated, to help you get a complete understanding of how to determine if games meet the System's criteria. After Day 1, I've included only the games that were "plays," and their results. Following each team in parentheses is its moneyline odds and starting pitcher.

   DAY 1, Monday, May 12, 2003

   Houston (-115, Lindenbrook) at Pittsburgh (+105, Torres)

   The underdog Pittsburgh had lost 3 in a row coming into this game, so there is no play. Result Houston 9, Pittsburgh 4.

   Chicago Cubs (-240, Prior) at Milwaukee (+200, Rusch)

   Prior is in the Top 20 and the moneyline odds on Milwaukee are too high, so there is no play. Result Chicago 11, Milwaukee 5.

   New York Mets (+105, Trachsel) at Colorado (-115, Young)

   Since neither team is on a streak, neither pitcher is in the Top 20, and the moneyline odds are +150 or below, there is a $20 play on New York +105. Result New York 9, Colorado 6, for a $21 profit.

   Florida (+115, Phelps) at San Diego (-125, Condrey)

   Again, neither team is on a streak, neither pitcher is in the Top 20, and the moneyline odds aren't too high, so the $20 play is Florida +115. Result Florida 6, San Diego 1, for a $23 profit.

   Atlanta (+120, Reynolds) at Los Angeles (-130, Nomo)

   Once again, none of the excluding criteria has been met, so the $20 play is on Atlanta +120. Result Atlanta 11, Los Angeles 4, for a $24 profit.

   Montreal (+130, Day) at San Francisco (-140, Moss)

   Both pitchers are in the Top 20, which means it is not a traditional play. But I'd play it as a $22 "under" wager on the day's total of 7.5. Result Montreal 4, San Francisco 3, for a $20 profit.

   Kansas City (+135, Affeldt) at Minnesota (-145, May)

   As neither pitcher is in the Top 20 or on a streak, and the odds are favorable, the play is on Kansas City + 135. Result Kansas City 3, Minnesota 2, for a $27 profit.

   Results

   Day Underdog Record Underdog Profit Under Record Under Profit Total Profit

   1 4-0 $95 1-0 $20 $115

   This day couldn't prove the System any better, as you go 4-0 on underdogs and 1-0 on unders. Not all days will be like this one, as you'll see, but there are upsets almost every day in baseball, and with The Baseball Underdog System, you zero in on teams with the best chances to pull them off.

   Note that in the Pittsburgh and Milwaukee games, we stay away from potential losses because we stick with our criteria -- the Pirates were on a losing streak, and Milwaukee was too much of a long-shot underdog.

   DAY 2, Tuesday, May 13, 2003

   Houston (-120, Redding) at Pittsburgh (+100, Suppan)

   Result Houston 6, Pittsburgh 3, for a $20 loss.

   Chicago (-125, Estes) at Milwaukee (+115, Quevedo)

   Result Chicago 7, Milwaukee 2, for a $20 loss.

   Cincinnati (+150, Wilson) at St. Louis (-160, Simontacchi)

   Result Cincinnati 7, St. Louis 2, for a $30 profit.

   Montreal (+130, Ohka) at San Francisco (-140, Ainsworth)

   Result Montreal 6, San Francisco 4, for a $26 profit.

   Atlanta (Ortiz) at Los Angeles (Ishii)

   Result Atlanta 3, Los Angeles 1, for a profit of $20 on the under total of 7.5, since both pitchers were in the Top 20.

   Florida (+100, Penny) at San Diego (-110, Lawrence)

   Result San Diego 6, Florida 5, for a $20 loss.

   Tampa Bay (+150, Kennedy) at Toronto (-160, Sturtze)

   Result Tampa Bay 7, Toronto 5, for a $30 profit.

   Texas (+140, Thomson) at Boston (-150, Burkett)

   Result Boston 5, Texas 4, for a $20 loss.

   Results

   Day Underdog Record Underdog Profit Under Record Under Profit Total Profit

   2 3-4 $6 1-0 $20 $26

   Note that even though you go 3-4 on Day 2, you still show a profit because of the favorable underdog odds. And the "under" pick also earns you a tidy profit.

   DAY 3, Wednesday, May 14, 2003

   New York Mets (+100, Seo) at Colorado (-120, Oliver)

   Result Colorado 6, New York 5, for a $20 loss.

   Montreal (+140, Vargas) at San Francisco (-150, Foppert)

   Result Montreal 6, San Francisco 3, for a $28 profit.

   Arizona (Schilling) at Philadelphia (Myers)

   Result Arizona 2, Philadelphia 0, for a $20 profit on the under total of 7.5 since Myers was a Top 20 pitcher and Schilling was also highly ranked in a fewer-innings category after returning from an injury.

   Kansas City (+130, Hernandez) at Minnesota (-145, Reed)

   Result Minnesota 7, Kansas City 0, for a $20 loss.

   Results

   Day Underdog Record Underdog Profit Under Record Under Profit Total Profit

   3 1-2 $-12 1-0 $20 $8

   You suffer what is only 1 of 3 losing days of the week on your main underdog wagers, yet the small loss is more than offset by the winning "under" pick.

   DAY 4, Thursday, May 15, 2003

   Houston (-150, Oswalt) at Pittsburgh (+140, Benson)

   Result Houston 6, Pittsburgh 2, for a $20 loss.

   Kansas City (+150, Asencio) at Minnesota (-160, Rogers)

   Result Kansas City 9, Minnesota 5, for a $30 profit.

   Day Underdog Profit Under Record Profit Today's Total Record Record Profit Profit 4 1-1 $10 0-0 $0 $10 $159

   Results

   Day Underdog Record Underdog Profit Under Record Under Profit Total Profit

   4 1-1 $10 0-0 $10 $10

   Some days are light, like this one, when a lot of Top 20 pitchers are on the mound and all the major league teams seem to be on streaks, either winning or losing. If you're like me, you'll take a profit by going just 1-1 any day, though.

   DAY 5, Friday, May 16, 2003

   Atlanta (-160, Hampton) at San Diego (+140, Peavy)

   Result Atlanta 6, San Diego 4, for a $20 loss.

   Pittsburgh (Wells) at Arizona (Batista)

   Result Pirates 8, Arizona 5, for a $22 loss on a total of 8.

   Chicago Cubs (Clement) at St. Louis (Williams)

   Result St. Louis 7, Chicago 4, for a $22 loss on a total of 8.

   Philadelphia (-115, Padilla) at Houston (+105, Robertson)

   Result Houston 4, Philadelphia 2, for a $21 profit.

   Chicago White Sox (+110, Buehrle) at Minnesota (-120, Radke)

   Result Minnesota 18, Chicago 3, for a $20 loss.

   Toronto (+105, Hendrickson) at Kansas City (-115, George)

   Result Toronto 18, Kansas City 1, for a $21 profit.

   Oakland (Mulder) at Cleveland (Sabathia)

   Result Cleveland 2, Oakland 1, for a $20 profit on a total of 7.5. Day Underdog Profit Under Record Profit Today's Total Record Record Profit Profit 5 2-2 $2 1-2 -$24 -$22 $137

   Results

   Day Underdog Record Underdog Profit Under Record Under Profit Total Profit

   5 2-2 $2 1-2 $-24 $-22

   This is your worst day of the week, and you still post a small profit on your underdog wagers. Meanwhile, this is the 1 single day of the week with a losing record for picking "unders." This is why I always combine those picks with my selections in The Baseball Underdog System, since great pitching almost always triumphs over good hitting, especially in the first two-thirds of the season, before starters' arms begin to tire.

   DAY 6, Saturday, May 17, 2003

   Cincinnati (-130, Austin) at Milwaukee (+120, Rusch)

   Result Milwaukee 8, Cincinnati 6, for a $24 profit.

   Philadelphia (+115, Duckworth) at Houston (-125, Linebank)

   Result Philadelphia 9, Houston 4, for a $23 profit.

   Pittsburgh (+125, Torres) at Arizona (-130, Capuano)

   ResultPittsburgh 8, Arizona 5, for a $25 profit.

   Tampa Bay (+140, Gonzalez) at Baltimore (-150, Hentgen)

   Result Baltimore 2, Tampa Bay 0, for a $20 loss.

   Oakland (-160, Halama) at Cleveland (+150, Rodriguez)

   Occasionally, such as in this game, the underdog pitcher is ranked fairly high, in this case No. 28 in the AL. These games are usually particular bargains. Result Cleveland 4, Oakland 2, for a $30 profit.

   Toronto (-120, Halladay) at Kansas City (+110, Affeldt)

   Result Toronto 4, Kansas City 2, for a $20 loss.

   Anaheim (+110, Washburn) at Boston (-120, Lowe)

   This is yet another example of when an underdog pitcher is ranked, this time No. 14! Result Anaheim 6, Boston 2, for a $22 profit.

   Chicago White Sox (+130, Garland) at Minnesota (-140, Mays)

   Because the favored pitcher is ranked No. 23, I'd pass on this pick but will include it for our example's purposes. Result Minnesota 3, Chicago 1, for a $20 loss.

   Texas (+215, Valdes) at New York Yankees (-235, Pettitte)

   As I mentioned in detail in the last chapter, oddsmakers go overboard in favoring the Yankees. At this point of the 2003 season, for example, the Yankees were playing uncharacteristically bad baseball and Pettitte was in the midst of the worst losing streak of his career, so this wasn't a bad underdog play. Still, I will NOT include it in your profits, but show it here just so you realize that you should look beyond the numbers to the true game situations, because logic can occasionally overrule the "rules." Result Texas 5, New York Yankees 2.

   Day Underdog Profit Under Record Profit Today's Total Record Record Profit Profit 6 5-3 $54 0-0 $0 $54 $191

   Results

   Day Underdog Record Underdog Profit Under Record Under Profit Total Profit

   6 5-3 $54 0-0 $0 $54

   This is the kind of day you expect by selectively picking underdogs, and it could have been even better had I excluded the loss with Chicago and included the win with Texas, which didn't quite meet our criteria. As you become comfortable with the System, you'll undoubtedly get a good sense of when to stray slightly from the Rules.

   DAY 7, Sunday, May 18, 2003

   Chicago Cubs (+120, Estes) at St. Louis (-130, Simontacchi)

   Result St. Louis 6, Chicago 3, for a $20 loss.

   Montreal (+120, Ohka) at Colorado (-130, Chacon).

   Again, Colorado's pitcher was ranked No. 25, so this is an iffy play, but I'll include it. Result Colorado 4, Montreal 0, for a $20 loss.

   New York Mets (+130, Glavine) at San Francisco (-140, Ainsworth)

   Result New York 5, San Francisco 1 for a $26 profit.

   Pittsburgh (Suppan) at Arizona (Webb)

   Result Arizona 8, Pittsburgh 6, for a $22 loss on a total of 8.

   Anaheim (+125, Lackey) at Boston (-135, Burkett)

   Result Boston 5, Angels 3, for a $20 loss.

   Tampa Bay (+130, Kennedy) at Baltimore (-140, Daal)

   Result Tampa Bay 9, Baltimore 8, for a $26 profit.

   Chicago White Sox (Loaiza) at Minnesota (Lohse)

   Result Minnesota 3, Chicago 2, for a $20 profit on a total of 8.

   Results

   Day Underdog Record Underdog Profit Under Record Under Profit Total Profit

   7 2-3 $-8 1-1 $-2 $-10

   As I note above, I would stay away from the Montreal pick with the highly ranked Chacon on the mound, which would have given us a winning day overall, and only 2 losing underdog days among 7 in the System. Look for the games where a pitcher ranked right on the fringe of the Top 25 is pitching, and make sure there are additional reasons to bet on the underdog, other than the attractive odds.

   So, how have you done for the week?

   Results

   Days Underdog Record Underdog Profit Under Record Under Profit Total Profit

   1-7 18-15 $147 5-3 $34 $181

   The 3 key criteria for selecting games in The Baseball Underdog System has helped you pick 18 winners in 33 games (for a .545 winning percentage), which is a distinct improvement on the overall average of underdogs winning 4 of every 9 games (or .444).

   Meanwhile, the 1 criteria for selecting "under" games -- 2 pitchers in the Top 20 ERA or NPERA list dueling it out -- has produced a .625 winning percentage.

   Tips

   1) Again, when playing moneylines, always use more than one bookmaker, whether you play with local bookies or on the Internet, so you can shop around for the best odds on every single game.

   2) In addition to the 3 primary criteria of this System -- excluding games with a favored Top 20 pitcher, favored teams on 3-game winning streaks or underdogs on 3-game losing streaks, and underdogs with moneylines odds over +150 or so -- you may come up with more of your own to filter out other "bubble" games. Research may show an underdog pitcher has never won against his opponent, which would certainly red flag that game. You can never do too much homework. And trust your gut. If your underdog team has a pitcher on a woeful losing streak playing against a hot offensive team with a pitcher ranked No. 24, your instincts are probably right to pass on that match-up.

   3) You may want to consider excluding games with favorite pitchers ranking in the Top 30 of the league -- which would average out to the best 2 pitchers on each team. Also, if you wish to play even fewer games, you could lower your cutoff on underdogs to those with moneyline odds of +140 or so instead of +150.

   4) If any games feature 2 pitchers that are both on his league's Top 20 list, seriously consider playing the game's total as an "under." Again, do some homework and determine how each team has done against the other pitcher, and what their recent run productions are like. Teams, like individual players, go through slumps and streaks at the plate.

   5) An ideal System to combine with The Baseball Underdog System is the Parlay Version of The Set Monthly-Income System (Chapter 15), which could end up making you incredible profits if you bet on baseball every day.

   6) If your Bankroll permits, you may want to run several Series simultaneously.

   7) As always, don't forget to keep track of your bets using the handy Chart at the end of this chapter.

   Summing It All Up

   Baseball history shows that in 4 of 9 games, underdogs beat favorites. Alone, this doesn't give you enough of an advantage over your bookmakers, but with the 3 key criteria in The Baseball Underdog System, you'll have the edge you should need to consistently pick winners.

   Since you have better than even-money odds on your side, you don't have to pick much better than 47% underdog winners to post a substantial profit. Taking the example week above, with your profits of $147, and multiplying that by 24 weeks of baseball, you can realistically expect to make up to $3,500 or more by betting just $20 a game during baseball season.

   Here's a quick overview of The Baseball Underdog System:

   1) Each day, check the American and National League schedules and automatically eliminate any games in which the moneyline odds on the underdogs are greater than +150 or so.

   2) Of the games that remain, eliminate any games in which the underdogs have lost 3 or more games in a row or the favorites have won 3 or more games in a row. (This information is included in almost all newspapers' daily MLB standings.)

   3) Of the games that are left, eliminate any games in which the favored team's pitcher is among the Top 20 of the AL or NL in ERA, or NPERA, as determined by Jeff Sagarin(R) on USA Today's Web site (see above for a further explanation).

   4) On a day with a full slate of games, you should be left with 3 to 9 games to bet on between the AL and NL. Make $20 wagers (according to our example Bankroll) on the underdog in each game, shopping around at all your favorite bookmakers for the best possible moneyline odds.

   6) Before making the next day's bets, roll your profits into your Personal Betting Bankroll and increase your wagers accordingly, putting 1.25% of your Bankroll on each game.

   

   posted by pc7588

   April 28 2007 2:58pm
2. 0 likes

   BP and I talked at length about the Dbacks yesterday..I am playing that as well.

   Anyways..here's what I have for us tonight:

   For those of you who have been on the site for awhile, this is a trend play I've rolled on the last 3 years. Last year this system tanked. The two years previous, it was a cash cow hitting at over 85% ATS. Lots of changes this year, but I'm going to roll it as my first play on GP. (The handicapping contest are NOT my best bets)

   Play #1:

   Roll with me on Kansas City/Anaheim over 9 -110.

   Lots of changes with lots of new faces in both dugouts. But the one constant in this series is that Vlad and Sweeney both knock the socks off the ball. Looking at last year's results, the under came in strong. But I'm tellin ya, as a lifelong Royals fan this series or games almost always go over..especially in Anaheim. But I'm rollin tonight on the over in KC because I think the Halo's bats will destroy our pitching.

   Numbers:

   ** Halos are 7-3 ATS on the over in the last 10..coming off two straight under outtings in Chi Town..this would be the first time all year the Halos went under 3 times in a row on the road. I don't see it happening.

   **Lackey is a great pitcher..but..has lost his last 2 on the road and career wise against KC he is 1-2 with a 4.53 ERA in 4 starts.

   **Odalis has a SOLID 8.64 ERA for the Royals this year and Vlad has a career numbers against the Royals...his favorite team to play stat wise.

   **The public is 75% on the under....I love that number alone to play this.

   **I've played this series for years. I feel great that last year was subpar because over the test of time..this sucker has been a cash cow like the San Fran Giants over at home after the all star break.

   Good luck

   Play #1: Roll with me on KC/Anaheim over 9 -110

   Lackey/Perez must go.

   

   posted by pc7588

   April 30 2007 6:40pm
3. 0 likes

   0-1 ATS

   Sorry no time for a write up:

   MLB Best bet:

   Roll with me on Tampa Bay over 11 Even. Ponson and Jackson will give opposing offenses a chance to look big. We need the runs early because Neshack has been an over killer against me lately. Let's hope Tampa gets the big lead and Minny claws back.

   Tampa Bay/Minny over 11

   Good luck

   

   posted by pc7588

   May 1 2007 6:10pm
4. 0 likes

   TAKING TRIBE -150 OVER JAYS LETS ROLL

   GL

   

   posted by takis28

   May 1 2007 6:21pm
5. 0 likes

   "Takis28":ia63be2w
   

   TAKING TRIBE -150 OVER JAYS LETS ROLL

   GL

   AN EASY WIN FOR THE TRIBE BABY WOW 3 HOME RUNS FOR THE JAYS IN THE 1ST INNING 1ST TIME EVER GL PC

   

   posted by takis28

   May 2 2007 1:23pm
6. 0 likes

   Nice start with a solid 0-2 ATS. I swear, every time I start on GP I start slow. Same shit in NBA but that's startitng to turn

   Pick #3 (0-2 ATS)

   Roll with me on KC/Cali over 9 again. I missed it the first day, it slammed the second day, and it should roll today. DeLaRosa and Santana are both good pitchers but this game should go over 9.

   Cali/KC over 9

   Good luck.

   

   posted by pc7588

   May 2 2007 5:38pm
7. 0 likes

   pc have you tried the under dog formula

   

   posted by granite469

   May 2 2007 6:20pm
8. 0 likes

   LETS TRY THIS, ANOTHER TOTAL LOST 1ST ONE IN AFTERNOON BY HALF PT LOL MY PLAY FOR TONIGHT....

   MINNY/TAMPA OVER +10

   GL

   

   posted by takis28

   May 2 2007 6:43pm
9. 0 likes

   A solid 0-3 in my full time to returning MLB on GP...I'm gonna lick my wounds and wait til Monday. NBA is hot and I've had some bad plays this week in MLB...will focus and get em again Monday.

   PC's MLB record 0-3 ATS( If you want to go units call it -330, I almost never take favorites and most are total plays or dogs)

   See ya in a few days. If I see one I love I"ll throw it out but I'm waiting til Monday to get back on the mound.

   

   posted by pc7588

   May 3 2007 4:45pm
10. 0 likes

    I bet it for a week using 50.00 as a unit and playing the recommended total on unders for ERA pitchers and sides on the top 3 that applied. I honestly threw it away after 3 days..I think I was up around 38.00 through 3 days. I bet small..but it is too boring for me. I know that sounds funny, but for me, it doesn't work. I play a lot of totals more than sides and for me, it just is too long term. I don't lay 3K on plays and that's what you pretty much have to do I.M.O. to make good loot.

    

    posted by pc7588

    May 3 2007 4:47pm
11. 0 likes

    HEY PC IS IT TIME TO BET SF GIANTS HOME GAME OVER PAST TWO GAMES HAVE GONE OVER I GUESS CK IT OUT TAKE CARE.

    

    posted by coolrick1

    May 5 2007 1:08am
12. 0 likes

    San Fran over at home AFTER the all star break bro.

    Need that hot weather in San Fran for the ball to fly out.

    

    posted by pc7588

    May 5 2007 10:28am