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Closer Looks - Arkansas Derby
Race analysis
Oaklawn Park - Arkansas Derby (G2)
By MARY RAMPELLINI
1. Curlin 2. Deadly Dealer 3. Officer Rocket
Arkansas Derby favorite CURLIN is a talent, as evidenced by the progress he has made in just two career starts. He was a front-running debut winner over seven furlongs at GP in February, then a month later conquered stakes rivals and two turns with a sweeping, off-the-pace win in the Grade 3, $300K Rebel here at OP. The performance pegs him as the one to beat, and with a win he would head into the Kentucky Derby undefeated. DEADLY DEALER has lethal speed, and is a candidate to take these a long way on the lead. He dominated his rivals in a first-level allowance last out at GP, and for the effort earned a Beyer Figure of 104, which is the highest last-race number in the field this afternoon. OFFICER ROCKET has encountered trouble in each of his starts at the meet, and might be due for some clear sailing here. He also is a horse that seems to have moved forward physically over the course of the season. "He's matured a lot," said Holthus. "He's put on weight and done the right things as far as what a 3-year-old needs to do." Holthus said he would like to see OFFICER ROCKET sitting about five or six lengths off the lead early in the Arkansas D. FLYING FIRST CLASS was favored in the Rebel on the strength of the 107 Beyer Speed Figure he earned here for winning a maiden sprint in February. He is a talented sort, and had a significant, endurance-minded work since his last start in preparation for this afternoon's mile and an eighth test. Like the company that FOR YOU REPPO has kept during his career, and he is one who could be closer to the pace than he was in the Grade 2 Lane's End.
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A Closer Look
Oaklawn Park - Arkansas Derby (G2)
By JEFF TAYLOR
Delightful Kiss: Trifecta crasher at Tampa Bay turned in another late run while earning his best to date Beyer but that race failed to validate with the runner up's subpar performance in the Wood last weekend; Pletcher's colt from the outside likely to show speed and Lukas' charge not likely to be far behind but the pace in this tilt appears to be on the lax side so not sure how well the table will be set for a big late run from him; might be along for a minor share but difficult to visualize him getting up for all the corn.
Curlin: The Derby winner this year likely to breach a lot of stereotypes simply because no one has fit the conventional mold; today's even money favorite without a start as 2-year-old fits the bill then as he has done as much as any other sophomore this year; much heralded start in the Rebel turned out well as he kept coming on the outside; did not match that maiden Beyer but the resulting fig good enough and while he still looked a little green down the lane, he was considerably more businesslike than in that debut; proved he can rate but if the expected early pace players get cute, he is equipped to take over and keep going; in years past, taking such a short price on one such as this would be folly but hard not to like him.
Officer Rocket (GB): Made two different moves in the Rebel, the middle one to put him into contention while advancing toward the inside and then after dealing with some traffic in the second turn, the one where he moved outside and picked up everybody but the winner; one run may have put him closer before that one checked out the final furlong but seriously doubt he would have outkicked the winner; history of unclean trips has a way of following one but that does not prevent the public from coming back for more as there is always an excuse; will take a shot if the morning line holds and he is 6-1 or better but have a feeling the value will be shorter.
Going Ballistic: Fairly lively third quarter took the wind out of his sails in the Rebel as the one shot he had would have been a quick set of early splits that lasted for the first six furlongs before the pace collapsed; Deadly certainly looks capable of laying down some serious early gas but nobody else appears able of keeping up so either that one steals it, or everybody stays close which means another counterfeit pace with a quicker than useful run through the second turn which will not bode well for this one down the lane; maybe on the bottom of a flyer tri or super ticket but serious impact not expected.
Flying First Class: So much for the highest Beyer earned anywhere in the country by a 3-year-old in that maiden score of his going short two back as he beat a steady retreat after the same six furlongs of the Rebel which makes his favoritism awfully shallow in retrospect; having said that, this is exactly the type of situation that Lukas can be so dangerous and who is to say that while Curlin made immediate progress off his maiden score, this one may have needed some seasoning; doubt he gives way so readily today as his connections implied he needed more bottom and those longer works mighty good, including that bullet five furlongs earlier in the week; expecting much better.
Storm in May: A million bucks a lot at stake so why not ship up and hope for a major share which might just earn you a ticket to Churchill on the first Saturday in May; this one's only serious try on the dirt against legit 3-year-olds forgettable going one turn but he did encounter trouble; different story going the six panels in the start before when he picked everybody off with a nice rally and the runner up out of that chase has since flattered; the Hutchenson the only time he has missed being involved in the trifecta so despite mostly one turn experience on the main, that trend in the exotics may continue.
Olympic Chief : Hope springs eternal but even Pollyanna would have difficulty making a case for this one at first asking; sire was a talented youngster but raced only as a 2-year-old while the runner up in the BC Juvie as well as the Champagne; his first timers win at a 10.9 percent rate (13-for-119); unraced dam has produced one older foal (Newport Trick) who sports a modest 3-for-24 record with $43K in earnings; he does have that hefty Mud Tomlinson and looking at the forecast, he may very well use it; just hope whatever impact he has on the race is not a negative one that would compromise the chances of the true contenders.
Slew by Slew : The lone non Triple Crown nominee of the bunch which means their plans for him initially were not very ambitious; useful enough campaign thus far and has turned things around since that lackluster local debut back in February; that was the only time he had worn front wraps so darn sure don't want to see them on him today; his running style has changed to more of a grinding style so if a few more mix it up early than are expected to, possible he could pick off some of he tiring speed but even that appears to be a reach with his somewhat modest history over the main track.
For You Reppo: Co third choice in here on the morning line and he looks a little like the sleeper in here; throw out the two tries over synthetic and it is easy to see why as his record over conventional dirt rather good indeed; toss in the Lane's End and he has four tries at nine furlongs and no one else in the entire field has so much as a single attempt; nice work over the local strip on Monday where he got the last eighth in :12-1so he may not need to bring the Gulfstream track with him and he has a win over a drying out strip which is likely what the track will be labeled for this; his near miss to Chelokee two back looks a whole lot better now with that one's near miss in the Florida Derby; many will climb on the bandwagon and going with him for the win, primar
Deadly Dealer: Pletcher's supply of sophomores appears seemingly endless including this one who comes in off a monster triple digit allowance score when he blistered the half mile and kept going; J. R. is going to have to throttle him down today in the early going but he does have a supporting pedigree for the added real estate and speed seems to hold going nine furlongs here; another with some prior accomplishments over an off track which is likely to come into play as well; could have drawn better but it looks like he can clear from out here given his pace history; can?t see Lukas' colt allowing him a lonesome lead but if speed is holding on the undercard or the strip is neutral, giving him to nod wire 'em.
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