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   Closer Looks - Arkansas Derby

   Race analysis

   Oaklawn Park - Arkansas Derby (G2)

   By MARY RAMPELLINI

   1. Curlin 2. Deadly Dealer 3. Officer Rocket

   Arkansas Derby favorite CURLIN is a talent, as evidenced by the progress he has made in just two career starts. He was a front-running debut winner over seven furlongs at GP in February, then a month later conquered stakes rivals and two turns with a sweeping, off-the-pace win in the Grade 3, $300K Rebel here at OP. The performance pegs him as the one to beat, and with a win he would head into the Kentucky Derby undefeated. DEADLY DEALER has lethal speed, and is a candidate to take these a long way on the lead. He dominated his rivals in a first-level allowance last out at GP, and for the effort earned a Beyer Figure of 104, which is the highest last-race number in the field this afternoon. OFFICER ROCKET has encountered trouble in each of his starts at the meet, and might be due for some clear sailing here. He also is a horse that seems to have moved forward physically over the course of the season. "He's matured a lot," said Holthus. "He's put on weight and done the right things as far as what a 3-year-old needs to do." Holthus said he would like to see OFFICER ROCKET sitting about five or six lengths off the lead early in the Arkansas D. FLYING FIRST CLASS was favored in the Rebel on the strength of the 107 Beyer Speed Figure he earned here for winning a maiden sprint in February. He is a talented sort, and had a significant, endurance-minded work since his last start in preparation for this afternoon's mile and an eighth test. Like the company that FOR YOU REPPO has kept during his career, and he is one who could be closer to the pace than he was in the Grade 2 Lane's End.

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   A Closer Look

   Oaklawn Park - Arkansas Derby (G2)

   By JEFF TAYLOR

   Delightful Kiss: Trifecta crasher at Tampa Bay turned in another late run while earning his best to date Beyer but that race failed to validate with the runner up's subpar performance in the Wood last weekend; Pletcher's colt from the outside likely to show speed and Lukas' charge not likely to be far behind but the pace in this tilt appears to be on the lax side so not sure how well the table will be set for a big late run from him; might be along for a minor share but difficult to visualize him getting up for all the corn.

   Curlin: The Derby winner this year likely to breach a lot of stereotypes simply because no one has fit the conventional mold; today's even money favorite without a start as 2-year-old fits the bill then as he has done as much as any other sophomore this year; much heralded start in the Rebel turned out well as he kept coming on the outside; did not match that maiden Beyer but the resulting fig good enough and while he still looked a little green down the lane, he was considerably more businesslike than in that debut; proved he can rate but if the expected early pace players get cute, he is equipped to take over and keep going; in years past, taking such a short price on one such as this would be folly but hard not to like him.

   Officer Rocket (GB): Made two different moves in the Rebel, the middle one to put him into contention while advancing toward the inside and then after dealing with some traffic in the second turn, the one where he moved outside and picked up everybody but the winner; one run may have put him closer before that one checked out the final furlong but seriously doubt he would have outkicked the winner; history of unclean trips has a way of following one but that does not prevent the public from coming back for more as there is always an excuse; will take a shot if the morning line holds and he is 6-1 or better but have a feeling the value will be shorter.

   Going Ballistic: Fairly lively third quarter took the wind out of his sails in the Rebel as the one shot he had would have been a quick set of early splits that lasted for the first six furlongs before the pace collapsed; Deadly certainly looks capable of laying down some serious early gas but nobody else appears able of keeping up so either that one steals it, or everybody stays close which means another counterfeit pace with a quicker than useful run through the second turn which will not bode well for this one down the lane; maybe on the bottom of a flyer tri or super ticket but serious impact not expected.

   Flying First Class: So much for the highest Beyer earned anywhere in the country by a 3-year-old in that maiden score of his going short two back as he beat a steady retreat after the same six furlongs of the Rebel which makes his favoritism awfully shallow in retrospect; having said that, this is exactly the type of situation that Lukas can be so dangerous and who is to say that while Curlin made immediate progress off his maiden score, this one may have needed some seasoning; doubt he gives way so readily today as his connections implied he needed more bottom and those longer works mighty good, including that bullet five furlongs earlier in the week; expecting much better.

   Storm in May: A million bucks a lot at stake so why not ship up and hope for a major share which might just earn you a ticket to Churchill on the first Saturday in May; this one's only serious try on the dirt against legit 3-year-olds forgettable going one turn but he did encounter trouble; different story going the six panels in the start before when he picked everybody off with a nice rally and the runner up out of that chase has since flattered; the Hutchenson the only time he has missed being involved in the trifecta so despite mostly one turn experience on the main, that trend in the exotics may continue.

   Olympic Chief : Hope springs eternal but even Pollyanna would have difficulty making a case for this one at first asking; sire was a talented youngster but raced only as a 2-year-old while the runner up in the BC Juvie as well as the Champagne; his first timers win at a 10.9 percent rate (13-for-119); unraced dam has produced one older foal (Newport Trick) who sports a modest 3-for-24 record with $43K in earnings; he does have that hefty Mud Tomlinson and looking at the forecast, he may very well use it; just hope whatever impact he has on the race is not a negative one that would compromise the chances of the true contenders.

   Slew by Slew : The lone non Triple Crown nominee of the bunch which means their plans for him initially were not very ambitious; useful enough campaign thus far and has turned things around since that lackluster local debut back in February; that was the only time he had worn front wraps so darn sure don't want to see them on him today; his running style has changed to more of a grinding style so if a few more mix it up early than are expected to, possible he could pick off some of he tiring speed but even that appears to be a reach with his somewhat modest history over the main track.

   For You Reppo: Co third choice in here on the morning line and he looks a little like the sleeper in here; throw out the two tries over synthetic and it is easy to see why as his record over conventional dirt rather good indeed; toss in the Lane's End and he has four tries at nine furlongs and no one else in the entire field has so much as a single attempt; nice work over the local strip on Monday where he got the last eighth in :12-1so he may not need to bring the Gulfstream track with him and he has a win over a drying out strip which is likely what the track will be labeled for this; his near miss to Chelokee two back looks a whole lot better now with that one's near miss in the Florida Derby; many will climb on the bandwagon and going with him for the win, primar

   Deadly Dealer: Pletcher's supply of sophomores appears seemingly endless including this one who comes in off a monster triple digit allowance score when he blistered the half mile and kept going; J. R. is going to have to throttle him down today in the early going but he does have a supporting pedigree for the added real estate and speed seems to hold going nine furlongs here; another with some prior accomplishments over an off track which is likely to come into play as well; could have drawn better but it looks like he can clear from out here given his pace history; can?t see Lukas' colt allowing him a lonesome lead but if speed is holding on the undercard or the strip is neutral, giving him to nod wire 'em.

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   posted by drtnapper07

   April 14 2007 12:06pm
2. 0 likes

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   Closer Look - Blue Grass

   Race analysis

   Keeneland - Toyota Blue Grass Stakes (G1)

   By STEVE KLEIN

   1. Street Sense 2. Dominican 3. Great Hunter

   STREET SENSE dominated his opponents in the BC Juvenile, then was up in time to win his comeback at Tampa. He is the horse to beat here, and possibly also in Louisville, but low odds will not be a bargain on him in a race he doesn't need to win. DOMINICAN looked good winning the Rushaway with a strong move in his return from a four month layoff. He shows a :59.80 breeze here since that win, and can contend at overlaid odds. GREAT HUNTER made an impressive move to defeat Grade 2's in his return at Santa Anita, but it should be noted that Sam P made a slight late gain against him. He'll be a prime contender if he can avoid regression, but he is another who doesn't need to win this race to move on to the Kentucky Derby.

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   A Closer Look

   Keeneland - Toyota Blue Grass Stakes (G1)

   By BYRON KING

   Zanjero: He has raced against some of the very best, horses like Nobiz Lik Shobiz, Notional and Circular Quay; encouraged by the move to Kee; he broke his maiden nicely over Polytrack, and running over this track may move him up.

   Dominican: Won for fun in the Rushaway, blowing past the field once he found clear sailing in the stretch; that was a picture-perfect way to kick off his 3YO year; gets his class test against this group; while he did run third in the Kentucky Jockey Club last year, he was not a major factor in the stretch; broke his maiden over this track last fall, but finishing 4 lengths behind Zanjero in an allowance race at Churchill.

   Love Dubai: Connections purchased him with the idea of running in the Lane's End, but he delayed shipping kept him out of the race; run terribly in the Illinois Derby but that was on a traditional dirt track; he showed a liking for Polytrack when racing overseas; owner/trainer tandem took the Lane's End on Polytrack last year with With A City.

   Street Sense: Champ was dead game in the Tampa Bay Derby, edging Any Given Saturday despite not having run since Nov.; Nafzger believes the horse not wiped out from the hard comeback race; was given an easy drill Apr. 10 at CD, only asked to finish over the final furlong; expecting a good race, but you get the feeling his connections are much more focused on winning the Derby than this race; second choice behind Great Hunter.

   Time Squared : Did not earn much of the Beyer for that last win, but he certainly looked good in victory, inhaling the field in the stretch with a powerful rally; Biancone now gets very aggressive and throws him in the Bluegrass on short rest; just not sold on him classwise; he was soundly beaten in his one stakes start.

   Teuflesberg: His Rebel was better than it looks on paper; after falling further off the pace than accustomed, this horse still did very well to be third behind the promising Curlin; despite being a frontrunner, this one showed a liking for this track by soundly beating Ravel here in October; he looks like the lone speed and seems likely to produce his best effort.

   Great Hunter: Beat Street Sense in the Breeders' Futurity here last fall before finishing a distant third behind him in the Breeders Cup; lone start of 2007 was dynamite, a striking win in the Bob Lewis; return to Polytrack is a positive; he really seems to relish the footing here, and he has trained over the synthetic Cushion Track at Hollywood for much of the past half year or so; choice.

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   posted by drtnapper07

   April 14 2007 12:08pm
3. 0 likes

   WASN'T VERY GOOD LAST WEEK, BUT TRYING AGIAN THIS WEEK...

   BLUE GRASS

   $50 ATB #2 DOMINICAN 10/1

   $10 EXB & TRIB 1/2/4/7

   ARKANSAS DERBY

   $50 ATB #9 FOR YOU REPPO 6/1

   $10 EXB & TRIB 1/2/3/9

   GOOOD LUCK AND SMART BETTING !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

   

   posted by wardawg14522

   April 14 2007 12:21pm
4. 0 likes

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   Blue Grass

   The 4 & 7 should have no prob getting it done.

   4-7 EX BX

   4,7 4,7 1,6 TRI

   4,7 4,7 1,6 1,6 SUPR

   Arkansas Derby

   Wardawg - I liked the #9 also - However he has SCRATCHED.

   I also like the #1

   1,10 EX BX

   1,10 1,10 2,6 2,6 TRI & SUPR

   

   posted by drtnapper07

   April 14 2007 3:42pm
5. 0 likes

   "Wardawg14522":23o959r0
   

   WASN'T VERY GOOD LAST WEEK, BUT TRYING AGIAN THIS WEEK...

   BLUE GRASS

   $50 ATB #2 DOMINICAN 10/1

   $10 EXB & TRIB 1/2/4/7

   ARKANSAS DERBY

   $50 ATB #9 FOR YOU REPPO 6/1

   $10 EXB & TRIB 1/2/3/9

   GOOOD LUCK AND SMART BETTING !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

   $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$

   

   posted by wardawg14522

   April 14 2007 8:50pm