Final 4 ...... the Service Plays
bored this morning......
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Dr. Bob
Saturday NCAA Best Bet
**Ucla (+3) over Florida
UCLA is now 13-1 straight up against my top 25 rated teams, with the lone loss being by just 2 points at Oregon. Florida, meanwhile, is 7-2 straight up against the top 25 rated teams, losing by 2 points on a neutral floor to Kansas and losing by 10 points at Tennessee. Florida is higher rated than UCLA if you weight all games for the season equally, but that’s only because Florida blew out bad teams by more than they were expected to while the Bruins let up most of the time when they had a big lead against a bad team. Using all games for each team this season (with all key players playing) would result in a prediction of Florida by 2 points, but using only games against NCAA caliber teams (that includes teams like Miss State, who were NCAA quality but didn’t make the Tournament) would result in favoring UCLA by a point. Some people argue that Florida wasn’t playing their best in the regular season and turned it on only when the post- season started, but the math favors UCLA by 1 point using games from this tournament only (excluding games against weak 1st round opponents). My NCAA ratings, which use all games but put a heavier weight on games against better competition, make this game a pick. So, the “trueâ€