Final 4 ...... the Service Plays
bored this morning......
________________________
Dr. Bob
Saturday NCAA Best Bet
**Ucla (+3) over Florida
UCLA is now 13-1 straight up against my top 25 rated teams, with the lone loss being by just 2 points at Oregon. Florida, meanwhile, is 7-2 straight up against the top 25 rated teams, losing by 2 points on a neutral floor to Kansas and losing by 10 points at Tennessee. Florida is higher rated than UCLA if you weight all games for the season equally, but that’s only because Florida blew out bad teams by more than they were expected to while the Bruins let up most of the time when they had a big lead against a bad team. Using all games for each team this season (with all key players playing) would result in a prediction of Florida by 2 points, but using only games against NCAA caliber teams (that includes teams like Miss State, who were NCAA quality but didn’t make the Tournament) would result in favoring UCLA by a point. Some people argue that Florida wasn’t playing their best in the regular season and turned it on only when the post- season started, but the math favors UCLA by 1 point using games from this tournament only (excluding games against weak 1st round opponents). My NCAA ratings, which use all games but put a heavier weight on games against better competition, make this game a pick. So, the “trueâ€
posted by phball101
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Malinski
Final four plays
5 units--UCLA (+3.5).....write-up below
5 units--Ohio State (+1)
__________________________________
Malinsky write-up for UCLA +3.5
TITLE: 5* Top of the Ticket - Final Four
REASON FOR PICK: 5* U.C.L.A. over FLORIDA
You will read a lot this week about Florida bringing the same lineup to the table that dominated U.C.L.A. 73-57 in LY’s championship game at Indianapolis, and about just how great the Gators have been under pressure. As such there are 3.5’s floating out there that not only calls for us to get involved, but to do it in a major way.
First let’s give credit to Billy Donovan and his team for their chemistry and work ethic in getting to this stage two straight seasons. But then let’s perform a reality check. In going 10-0 in the Big Dance the last two seasons, how many #1 or #2 seeds have they beaten? Just two. They were handed a good ride LY, particularly drawing George Mason in the Final Four, and so far this time around the cluster of Purdue, Butler and Oregon has not been all that challenging. But it is not as though they have just been waltzing through these games. In the Sweet 16 LY Georgetown, a #7 seed, had the ball and the lead and the ball in the final minute of play. This March they trailed both Purdue and Butler deep into the second half before managing to escape. And as for all of the talk about how they “step up under pressureâ€
posted by phball101
March 31 2007 12:41pm -
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Brandon Lang Saturday
50 Dime
Florida
15 Dime
Georgetown
Free Play: GTOWN/OSU Under
posted by phball101
March 31 2007 12:42pm -
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charlie sports
saturday march 31, 2007.
college basketball. ohio state vs goergetown under 130 (500*)
college basketball. ohio state+1 (30*)
college basketball. ucla+3 (20*)
college basketball. ucla vs florida over 130' (20*)
nba. philadelphia+7 (10*)
nba. portland pk (10*) free play
posted by phball101
March 31 2007 12:42pm -
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GOLD KEY GAMES:
3 Units (Free Play): Chicago Buls -2.5
Silver Key (Free Play): LA Clippers +1
Gold Key (Paid Play): Ohio State +1.5
The Buckeyes of the Big Ten Conference under their Head Coach Thad Matta enter the Final Four at 34-3 Straight Up, and 21-14 Against The Spread on the season. They have won 21 games in a row SU, and they covered their last three events as Dogs ATS, while winning two of them outright. The Buckeyes are a young team with a great future, and they deserve a Gold Key Play ON as Dogs tonight. Positive trends include 8-2 ATS in Tournament Play, 59-49 ATS as Dogs, and 18-11 ATS versus winning teams.
The Hoyas out of the Big East Conference under their Head Coach John Thompson III stand at 30-6 SU, and 20-10 ATS on the campaign. They are a powerful team that stays in each game 'til the end no matter the score, and their effort in their last event versus the Tar Heels was awesome. The Hoyas missed out last season by losing to the eventual Champion Gators in the Regional Semifinals, and they strive to get it done this year. They show virtually all positive trends for this game tonight, with the exception of 3-6 ATS when the Total is in this point range on Neutral Courts, and 0-2 ATS in Tournament Semifinal events.
The line overnited at a Pick'em, quickly moved to Hoyas -1, and may move up further before game time. We'll take those points and the Buckeyes here tonight in a Gold Key Play.
posted by phball101
March 31 2007 12:43pm -
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Larry Ness' 20* Final 4 GOY
Reason:My regular clients may have anticipated this play on UCLA. I've had three straight HUGE plays on UCLA, winning easily over Pitt and Kansas, while losing against Indiana, despite the Bruins holding the Hoosiers to 49 points on 32.7% shooting (**it happens!). Check out UCLA's defensive numbers in this year's tourney. They've allowed just 50.3 PPG (Pitt and Kansas each scored just 55), while holding opponents to 36.3% shooting. Florida, noted for its defensive play, is allowing 67.5 PPG through four games! Of course Florida has the best starting-five in the nation (all average between 10.1-13.3 PPG plus Horford and Noah are GREAT inside) and has now won 16 straight postseason games (SEC and NCAA). However, as everyone knows, no team has repeated since Duke did it in 1991 and 1992. The reason is, it's HARD! UCLA is SO much better than the team that got CRUSHED by Florida last year. Afflalo is playing great and despite some poor shooting games, is averaging 18.3 PPG in this tourney. PG Collison, who played 21 minutes as a freshman in LY's title game without scoring, enters this game averaging 13.8 PPG in the tourney, making 59.3% of his FGs plus 18-of-19 FTs. Shipp and his 13.1 PPG seasonal average, was injured LY. UCLA's frontline of Mbah a Moute, Mata and Aboya is a year older, wiser and better by leaps-and-bounds! In LY's title game, UCLA shot 3-of-17 on threes and I can't see the Bruins shooting as poorly again or being as undisciplined as they were. A dog just twice TY, UCLA won at Arizona 81-66 and vs Kansas, 68-55.
Final 4 GOY 20* UCLA
posted by phball101
March 31 2007 12:44pm -
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PSYCHIC
2*Nets-7.5
3*Portland-1.5
3*Knicks+7.5
3*Georgetown-1
4*UCLA+3 (Major)
posted by phball101
March 31 2007 12:44pm -
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Stu Finer
2000 DIME Semifinal Hoops No Brainer...GEORGETOWN HOYAS
500 DIME Semifinal Hoops No Brainer...FLORIDA GATORS
posted by phball101
March 31 2007 12:44pm -
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Stan Sharp - Triple Dime Play
760 Ohio St. 1.0 (-110) vs 759 Georgetown
Analysis: All 3 of Stan's TOP COLLEGE BETTORS have made a BIG WAGER on OHIO ST. Ohio St. has been in Dog Fight's this entire Tournament which gives them a decided edge as they know how to play with pressure. OHIO ST. looks like a team of destiny as they never should have survived the Xavier Game. Every Champion gets lucky sometime but today they don't need luck as they are the best team on the floor and should have been the favorite. TAKE OHIO ST. as STAN'S FINAL 4 BIG BET OF THE YEAR and make them a TRIPLE DIME PLAY. Note Stan is 28-15 ATS with his last 43 Plays!!
posted by phball101
March 31 2007 12:45pm -
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Cappers Access
Sport Favorite Underdog Line Pick
(Sat) CBB Georgetown Ohio St 1 Ohio St
(Sat) CBB Florida UCLA 3 Florida
posted by phball101
March 31 2007 12:45pm -
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RAS
Ohio State vs Georgetown (Under 130) - 3:05pm Pacific - Game #759-760
These are two very good defensive teams. Georgetown ranks 9th and 5th nationally in scoring and field goal percentage defense respectively, while Ohio State has very solid rankings of 28th and 20th. Both teams have had higher than usual scoring games in the NCAA tournament thus far but that can almost all be attributed to the opponents they have faced. Georgetown's last two games were against Vanderbilt and North Carolina, while Ohio State has faced Xavier, Tennessee, and Memphis. All five mentioned opponents rank in the top 40 nationally in scoring offense. When matched up against defensive minded opponents, Georgetown and Ohio State have played some ugly low scoring games this year. Combined they have played 22 games (GT 15, OSU 7) that have gone under 120. Each team has one of the premier shotblockers in the country which will make drives to the basket and inside points harder to come by. Both teams will likely play more zone defense than usual to keep their foul prone big men on the floor. In Ohio State's case the zone will also help take away Georgetown's Princeton style backdoor cuts, and in Georgetown's case the zone will help them to keep up with Ohio State's overall team speed. No player on the court has been past the Sweet 16 before this year so on the grand stage of the final four there figures to be some nerves early on. It is also the first time both team's will be playing at the Georgia Dome where the shooting background can sometimes be a factor. Both teams are capable of scoring droughts even under normal conditions. There are some 130.5's available as of this writing and the first half under 60 is also worth a look.
posted by phball101
March 31 2007 12:45pm -
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Billy Coleman
4* Phil/Nj Over 190
3* Chicago -3
4* Georgetown -1
3* Ucla/Florida under 130
4* Wash/TB Over 6 1/2
3* Mont/Buff Under 6 1/2
3* San Jose - 12 1/2
posted by phball101
March 31 2007 12:46pm -
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ATS LOCK CLUB
5 units on Florida (-3) over UCLA, 8:45
3 units on Georgetown (-1) over Ohio State, 6:00
posted by phball101
March 31 2007 12:46pm -
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ATS Financial Package Basketball/Hockey/Arena
Basketball Financial Package
3 units on the New Orleans Hornets (-7) over the NY Knicks, 8:00
Hockey Financial Package:
4 units on the OVER 6 1/2 Buffalo/Montreal, 7:00
3 units on Colorado (-120) over Minnesota, 3:00
Arena Football Financial Package.
4 units on the OVER 94 1/2 New Orleans/Orlando, 8:00
3 units on Austin (+14 1/2) over Dallas, 8:30
posted by phball101
March 31 2007 12:46pm -
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Kelso Saturday
Kelso
March Madness=
10 units Georgetown -1 v. OSU
3 units George/OSU Over 130
10 units UCLA +3 v. Florida
2 units UCLA/Florida Under 130.5
Personal Best Bet= Pass for day
Chairmans Club= No picks yet
Best Bets=
10 units Hornets -7 v. Knicks
4 units Clippers -2.5 @ Portland
3 units Cavs/Bulls Over 185
Not sure where Kelso got the line on the Clippers/Blazers as I see it opened at Clippers +1 and is now Clippers -1 at most books. Oh well, if the play is good at -2.5 it should be better at -1
legalarceny is offline Reply With Quote
posted by phball101
March 31 2007 12:47pm -
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Gator Report (Final Four Edition)
CBB / NCAA "Final Four" (Saturday) Play Under CBB neutral court teams when the total is 129.5 or less after one or more consecutive overs in a game involving teams who average outscoring their opponents by 8+ points per game in the 2nd half of the season.
(34-10 since 1997.) (77.3%) PLAY: Georgetown / Ohio State UNDER 129.5
posted by phball101
March 31 2007 12:48pm -
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Ed Redmon
5* UCLA
5* CHI
4* FLO under
posted by phball101
March 31 2007 12:48pm -
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Michael Cannon goes 2-0 yesterday, after Thursdays nice victory with West Virginia.
Today its:
40 Dimes on Florida
20 Dimes on Georgetown
posted by phball101
March 31 2007 12:48pm -
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Big Al :
3* Ohio State
3* Florida
posted by phball101
March 31 2007 12:49pm -
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Ben Burns:
Main Event: Under Ohio St
Blue Chip Total: Under Florida
posted by phball101
March 31 2007 12:54pm -
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Professional-Plays
6-1 last 7 games
Plays rated 1-5
3 units New Jersey over 188.5
posted by phball101
March 31 2007 12:54pm -
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executive
300 ohio st
200 ucla
posted by phball101
March 31 2007 12:55pm -
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Burns NBA Total of the year
NBA ESPN Total of the Year
Under Cavs/Bulls
posted by phball101
March 31 2007 12:56pm -
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SCOTTSPICKS:
Free Plays:
LA Clippers -.5
UCLA +3
Paid Plays:
Chicago Bulls -2.5
Ohio State +1
UNDER 130.5 UCLA
posted by phball101
March 31 2007 12:57pm -
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Brian Gabrielle's 3* Final Four SMASH Gators/Bruins
Florida -3
posted by phball101
March 31 2007 12:58pm -
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SATURDAY PICKS(SOUTH BEACH)
ZEBRA CLUB: 20* CBB Florida -3
BIG ACTION: CBB Georgetown -1
BIG ACTION: NBA Portland -1
HILTON: NBA Nets -7
posted by phball101
March 31 2007 1:56pm -
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John Ryan 10* Ucla
posted by phball101
March 31 2007 1:56pm -
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Pointwise
3 Georgetown
4 Florida
posted by phball101
March 31 2007 1:56pm -
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Tom Stryker
Strykers Play in on UCLA
confirmed
posted by phball101
March 31 2007 1:57pm -
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The Wunderdog
Game: U C L A vs. Florida (8:45 PM Eastern)
Pick: Game Total UNDER 130.5 -110
We are down to the Final Four, and this is a repeat of a game last year where Florida overwhelmed UCLA, and went on to win the national championship. This game sets up much the same as the '91 NCAA semi-final. UNLV was potent everywhere on the court, and in '90 beat Duke 103-73. They returned everyone, and here was a No. 2 seeded Duke team that no one gave a chance, and they upset UNLV, en route to winning the national championship. There is something about a team with a sour memory that has a chance to exact revenge, and chase the bitterness. There is no doubt which team will be playing with the absolute highest energy, and that will be UCLA. The key factor will be Arron Afflolo. He has slumped badly at the end of the season, but came up big against Kansas, and he looks ready to shine. The odds-makers say this game plays from the low to mid 60-point range at best. That is not Florida basketbal! l at its best. They are 1-5 ATS when the total is 135 points or less. The road here has been unquestionably more difficult for UCLA. They are coming off of wins over Indiana, Pitt, and Kansas. Compare that to Purdue, Oregon and Butler. UCLA has a much higher margin of winning vs. much more difficult opponents, and they have done it with defense. They have allowed just 36.5% FG shooting for the entire tournament. Florida shoots 52.7% a game, but what most don't realize is that against teams that give up 68-ppg or less, they have shot just 43.3%! This is another clue of the fact that a low-scoring game is not when they are at their best. Florida averages 79.8-ppg, and in this tournament, UCLA has held their opponent to an average of 20-ppg below what they have averaged. That puts Florida around the 60-point mark, and that tells us this will be a down-to-the-wire game. UCLA has been 21-6-1 ATS as an underdog, which is when they play their best. They are also 11-2 ATS again! st teams that shoot 48%+, and as much as a low-scoring game is! not whe n Florida is at their best, UCLA thrives in such situations, having posted a 20-8 ATS mark when the total is posted in the 130s. Florida has not done well as a small favorite, they are 0-4 ATS when favored by 6.5 points or less. Look for UCLA to get redemption from last year, and win this game outright. We also like this game to go UNDER the posted total. NCAA tournament semi-final games have gone UNDER in 35 of the last 59 games played, and teams playing in the semi-finals of a tournament that are returning all five starters from last year (FLA), are 40-16 to the UNDER. When both teams take an average of less than 55 shots a game or less during the season, the UNDER has been 82-40.
posted by phball101
March 31 2007 1:57pm -
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Dave Cokin
25* Georgetown
Under Fla/ucla
posted by phball101
March 31 2007 1:57pm -
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Doc Enterprises
5* Georgetown
4* Florida
posted by phball101
March 31 2007 1:58pm -
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Score
400% Florida
300% Ohio State
posted by phball101
March 31 2007 1:58pm -
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TONY ONIO 7-3 FOR THE WEEK
March 31 1000♦ FLORIDA -3
March 31 500♦ OHIO ST. +1.5
infoguy is offline Reply With Quote
posted by phball101
March 31 2007 1:58pm -
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LENNY STEVENS
20* Georgetown
10* Florida
posted by phball101
March 31 2007 1:59pm -
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alatex superplay
g.town -1
posted by phball101
March 31 2007 1:59pm -
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Jamie Tursini's Pick Pack
NCAA Basketball Saturday Picks
Pick Pack Plays
Matchup: UCLA at Florida
Time: 8:45 PM EDT (Sat)
Play: UCLA (+3.5-110)
Line Source: BODOG
Posted on: March 27, 2007 @ 11:38:05 AM EDT
My number has this matchup as a PK. Giving a lot of value with the dog.
Going into the Tournament I had Florida slated to win it all, and of course they
are on there way reaching this game. But I honestly don't see the "IT" factor with this club.
They are so talented, but they appear to be on cruise control. I don't think that's a good thing
heading into a showdown with UCLA.
This is not the same Bruins team that got manhandled in the Championship last year.
This club is HUNGRY, and plays great defense.
I see this being a close matchup where points (especially getting them) will be at
a premium.
Have to take the Bruins here. Too good to pass up.
MLB Note: The season is upon us and I'm looking again to be #1 here on VegasInsider!
Join me and let's build the bankroll up for football. J.T.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Guaranteed Plays
Matchup: Georgetown at Ohio State
Time: 6:05 PM EDT (Sat)
Play: Georgetown (+1-110)
Line Source: MIRAGE
Posted on: March 25, 2007 @ 11:49:29 PM EDT
My number has Georgetown as a 3.5 point favorite!
I've loved this team all season and even had them pegged going to the "Final Four".
I did play N.Carolina and lost in what was a strange game. Still positive I was on the right side.
Without question we are backing the better coach in J.Thompson III. And he has 5 days to prepare!
Both centers Oden and Hibbert may just get eachother in foul trouble. But Hibbert has showed that he doesn't make
stupid fouls. The same can't be said about Oden. Hibbert showed he's very capable of playing in foul
trouble.
We also are backing the better defense.
I would be surprised if Georgetown didn't close as the favorite.
Take the value ASAP.
posted by vegastaco
March 31 2007 2:14pm -
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Mike Neri
3* Ohio State
3* UCLA
posted by phball101
March 31 2007 2:27pm -
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King sports
25 ucla
Big dawg
100 ucla
75 georgetown
posted by phball101
March 31 2007 2:27pm -
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Finer
SATURDAY'S SELECTION
I'm on a 187-155-11 free selection run after the Spurs covered the price at home last night against the Jazz. I've now banked eight of my last 11 comp plays and I'm on a solid 22-11-3 free play run. And don't forget that I ended the football season by going 21-12-2 with my last 35 free gridiron plays.
For your Saturday freebie, I'm looking for the Philadelphia 76ers to stay inside the price tonight at New Jersey. The Nets have limped to the end of a dreadful month as their loss last night at Detroit dropped them to 5-9 SU in March. This team is not playing great basketball at this stage and Lawrence Frank's bunch will not be able to cover all these points.
Not against this gritty Philly team that has been playing hard and with passion of late. Despite not playing very well last night, the Sixers still had enough to hold off the Celtics and to win straight-up for the 11th time in 16 games. Andre Iguodala, Kyle Korver and the Sixers versus teams with losing records are on runs of 10-5 SU and 7-4 ATS and they will stay inside this inflated price.
New Jersey has now dropped all the way to eighth in the Eastern Conference playoff standings. Vince Carter banged up his knee pretty good last night at The Palace (had to be carried off the court but did return to score 27 points despite missing 16 of 25 shots). He'll go tonight, but he'll definitely be sore. The Nets are on an overall spread slide of 4-9-1 ATS and they've also failed to cover four of their last seven when laying points.
And now they're facing a motivated Philly team that is 2-1 SU and 2-0-1 ATS versus the Nets this year. Jason Kidd (five turnovers last night) and New Jersey might eke out this scoreboard win, but no way they cover this large number as the Sixers are the right call in this spot.
5 DIME PHILADELPHIA 76ERS (1 to 5 Dime Scale)
posted by phball101
March 31 2007 2:28pm -
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GamblersWorld
Tip of the Day - March 31, 2007
TIP OF THE DAY
Sport: NCAA Basketball
Game: 8:47PM, Final Four: UCLA Bruins vs. Florida Gators
Prediction: Florida Gators
posted by phball101
March 31 2007 2:28pm -
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Frank Rosenthal
SATURDAY, MARCH 31, 2007
NBA
752 BULLS-2.5 SB
753 76ERS+7 SB
757 CLIPPERS-1 SB
UNDER 182 SB+
NCAA FINAL FOUR
759 GEORGETOWN PK SB+
UNDER 130.5 SB+
761 UCLA+3.5 SB
UNDER 130.5 SB
posted by phball101
March 31 2007 2:29pm -
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Larry Ness' Las Vegas Insider-1st NCAA total (10-3 w/ Las Vegas Insiders in the tourneys!)
Larry's won his L/6 tourney selections and is 38-17 (69%) with all of his tourney reports since March 1! He and his "unmatched" contacts have been a HUGE part of the winning, going 10-3 with his exclusive Las Vegas Insiders. His last LV Insider but 1st total of the tourneys is available right here. Remember, "it pays to be on the inside!" OVER UCLA/FLORIDA
posted by phball101
March 31 2007 2:39pm -
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Malinski NBA play
4 units - Chicago
posted by phball101
March 31 2007 2:39pm -
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Marc Lawrence Never Lost Final Four Perfect Play.......
Triple Dime Play on Ohio ST...
posted by phball101
March 31 2007 2:51pm -
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JOE G (PPP)
Opinions
UCLA
Georgetown
posted by phball101
March 31 2007 4:24pm -
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HSW Early Phones
7* Ohio State
5* UCLA
1 Unit Parlay On Ohio State and the Over
1 Unit Parlay on Florida and the Under
posted by phball101
March 31 2007 4:24pm -
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Matt Rivers
200,000* NCAA GAME OF THE YEAR Plus Bonus Lock
1. 200,000* Florida
2. 50,000* Ohio State
1. Ben Howland is a genius and this UCLA team is extremely solid and can defend as well as anybody but after 40 minutes of action the Gators are by far the overall superior team and it will show.
Billy Donovan's club blitzed the Bruins last season in the title game and that was with only a day to prepare. Here Florida had a full week to get ready for Howland's defense and with the way Joakim Noah, Al Horfod, Lee Humphrey, Taurean Green and this Florida team is closing games out I just do not see them slipping up here. Sure they have started slowly in the tournament but they have proven that it just doesn't matter as they are that good.
No doubt UF had that terrible week long stretch where they lost three of four on the road in the SEC to Vandy, Tennessee and LSU but besides that this team has been insane since last season's tournament run and let's not forget how UCLA is not a great scoring team and do not really have bigs that can fill it up. Arron Afflalo can score and Darren Collison and a few other players are very very good but they are still inferior to Florida and are now traveling all the way across the country to play this game in the Georgia Dome.
Let's also not belittle the fact that Gainesville, Florida is only five hours away from today's site and Donovan's squad just won three ridiculously easy games in the SEC tournament on this exact same court. They will be by far the more comfortable team in this environment and to begin with are by far are the better and more sound club.
This number really should be more like six. Florida wins this game eight or 9 out of 10 times and to only lay around three is a coup!
2. This is an extremely overall even game as both Georgetown and Ohio State can definitely prevail today but without laying anything I will back Greg Oden, Mike Conley Jr, Ron Lewis and the rest of Thad Matta's squad. The Buckeyes have lost three games all season and they were all on the road in Florida, Wisconsin and North Carolina. It really cannot get any harder than that as nobody should win in those road games. Obviously OSU should have lost to both Xavier and Tennessee but when push comes to shove these young kids look like mature veterans and continue to win agme after game in crunch time.
The Hoyas have been great and John Thompson III has done an absolutely remarkable job but I still believe that Ohio State is the more talented of these teams. Jeff Green and Roy Hibbert are NBA players and the other guys like Jonathan Wallace, Jessie Sapp and DaJuan Summers have really stepped it up but I do not see them doing it again here. Oden is a guy down low that prevents any penetration and I still do not believe that G-Town can win this game bombing away from three.
This is far from being the lock of my life at all and that is why it is only a 50,000♦ play but I truly believe that more times than not the Buckeyes win this game and advance and that's worth a small play.
posted by phball101
March 31 2007 4:25pm -
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Sycamore
4* Florida
3* Ohio state
3* Chicago NBA
posted by phball101
March 31 2007 4:25pm -
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ASA
3* UCLA
3* New Jersey Over NBA
posted by phball101
March 31 2007 4:26pm -
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Sports Umlimited
5* Ohio State
3* Florida
posted by phball101
March 31 2007 4:26pm -
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Totals 4 U
Top Play
Chic over
Reg Plays
Phil over
Clippers under
Georgetown over
Florida under
posted by phball101
March 31 2007 4:26pm -
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Scott Spreitzer
Game of Year...........Ohio State
posted by phball101
March 31 2007 4:28pm -
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"phball101":1b87yolq
Scott Spreitzer
Game of Year...........5*Ohio State
3 star ucla
posted by phball101
March 31 2007 4:33pm