Any Early Bets for Belmont
Just seeing if anyone had any good Tri's, Exacta's and Super pics yet for the Belmont.
posted by eagles-in04
4 replies
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From your name I take it you are from the Philly area like me and therefore will fully understand my pick.
Smarty Jones will be an overwhelming favorite, and for good reason. The way he obliderated the field at the Preakness was unbelievable. He appears to be one of the super horses that come along only once every decade or so.
However, I am not picking Smarty Jones. He will finish second. I have to reasons for this, one is sound horse racing handicapping reasoning and the other has to do with the lessons I've learned being a Philly sports fan.
My pick is PURGE to win the Belmont. Smarty handled Purge rather easily in the Arkansas derby earlier this year, but things have changed since then. First of all, Purge has changed his riding style from a front running speed horse to a stalking horse, similar to Smarty. He has also won a race at this track, two weeks ago at the Peter Pan Stakes. The winner of that race has historically been a Triple Crown spoiler at the Belmont. Also, with Lion Heart not racing in this race, it will likely be Smarty Jones who is the pace setting horse, allowing Purge to sit second or third waiting to make his move on the final stretch.
The second reason I think Smarty Jones will not win is he has been deemed by his owners to be a "Philly Horse". The city has gotten behind this horse with the same ferousity that it cheers the local sports teams. This is a bad thing. Just like all other Philly sports teams will do, they will get to the right to the top of the mountain, only to have an avalanche come crashing down on top of them. Philly will be broken hearted once again. Like the Eagles, Flyers, Sixers and Phillies; Smarty Jones will fail when it counts the most. Maybe Smarty is a super horse. He will need to be to win despite carrying the burden of the entire city.
200 WP #2 Purge (400 Total)
50 Exacta #2 Purge/ #9 Smarty Jones or #5 Rock Hard Ten (100 Total)
10 Trifecta #2/#9 or #5 or #6 Royal Assault (60 Total)
Good luck all!!!
posted by gyphin
June 2 2004 1:42pm -
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Thanks for the info. Gyphin...Yes...I'm Philly and your right about philly fans being let down in just about every sport...
I'm pretty new to horse betting...I hit with Smarty on the Derby and then I hit the Trifecta for the Preakness...
Just wondering how you feel about Eddington with Bailey...I didn't see you mention him at all...
posted by eagles-in04
June 3 2004 11:16am -
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DISCLAIMER: I KNOW NOTHING ABOUT HORSES!!!
WITH THAT SAID I'M TAKING ROCK HARD 10 FOR 50.00 TO WIN/PLACE/SHOW AND A TRI BOX WITH RH10, SMARTY, EDDINGTON, AND PURGE..GOOD LUCK ALL.
posted by pc7588
June 5 2004 2:46pm -
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Well, I was half right....Smarty Jones didn't win and Philly's heart was broken again. On the down side, Purge raced like a piece of shit and all my wagers lost, costing me $560. Oh well, anyone who picked Birdstone congrats to you. I'm guessing only a few ametuer horse racing handicappers could've looked at a program and actually predicted that Birdstone would win. But shit happens and sometimes it's better to be lucky than good. I'm out of cliches'....later.
posted by gyphin
June 7 2004 12:13pm