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Sorry, wanted to get the thread started to get some thoughts on paper for the start of the BE Tourney and didn't know how busy I would be at work.
Looking forward to another great BE tourney at MSG. BE is very balanced this year with few, if any, truly great teams. Class of the conference would have to be Georgetown, who played most consistently throughout the year. Pitt was in their class but has struggled of late. Despite that, I still consider Pitt to be a very solid team and one with potential to do some damage this March. Won't go into too much on these two teams until we see who they will be matched up against.
After these top two teams, you really have a crapshoot as each team has a weakness or two. Lvillle started off slow but has now won 5 in a row, including wins on the road against Pitt and Marquette. ND is also on a roll but they have benefitted from a very easy BE schedule (did not have to play UConn or Pitt, and only played Lville, Gtown, and Syracuse once).
Now, onto wednesday's matchups...
Depaul vs. Nova
Depaul on paper is hot right now (6-2 to finish BE play) but don't be fooled - that includes wins againt South Florida 2x, Cincinnati and UConn. Nova on the other hand is also 6-2, but this includes contests against Syracuse (W), Marquette (L), Gtown (L by 3) and Lville (W). In my opinion, this Nova team has a good amount of talent and has really underachieved all year. I think they have been tested though and might even be poised to make a little noise in the BE tourney. Many are saying they are already in but Jay Wright knows that a loss on the first day of the BE tourney can be damaging. Look for Mejia to put some points on the board, but in the end I like the combo of Nardi, Sumpter, and Scottie Reynolds to get the win here. Nova gets a good crowd at the Garden and I look for an 8-10 point win here. I think the line is Nova -4. This is one of my top 2 games for Wednesday.
Syracuse vs. UConn
A classic matchup of two BE mainstays. I've been saying all year that this UConn team is one of Calhoun's youngest ever, and it has showed. 6-10 big east record for a team that lost alot of talent to the NBA. Syracuse on the other hand also started a little slowly but eventually came together and is playing good basketball right now. Rautins has proven to be the extra scorer they need to go along with Nichols and Devendorf and Darryl Watkins is solid. They got their signature win by beating Georgetown, but as usual, good things usually only happen to the orange when playing in the friendly confines of the carrier dome. They split this year with UConn with both home teams winning and I expect this to be a close game throughout, especially if Dyson's shooting can keep Uconn in the game. Don't be fooled by Syracuse's run in the BE tourney last year. It was simply one of the best one-man performances the tournament has seen, with McNamara carrying the Orange. Well, Devendorf is NOT McAlarney. Early lines I've seen have Syracuse a 4 point favorite. To be honest with you, I don't know if I will touch this game as Syracuse could easily blow out UConn. If they don't blow them out, the longer UConn hangs around the greater their chance will be of winning the game. If the line creeps up a little to 6 or more, I might take a harder look at UConn. (Note, if Syracuse does get by Uconn, they could very well be playing in the Semi's because I like their chances in a rematch against a Notre Dame team that stuck it to them bad earlier in the year.)
West Virginia vs Providence
Both these teams are playing to get to the Big Dance as the loser most likley goes home (i.e. to the NIT). Providence has played a ton of close games this year but really disappointed me with a bad loss to St. Johns over the weekend. The road has not been friendly to this team. But the same could also be said for WVU. Both these teams are completely different at home and away. Truth be told, this game doesn't do much for me as the winner is likely one and done regadless. Other than a win vs. UCLA without Collison, I just don't see anything on WVU's schedule that tells me they are any good. Their last wins are against Cincy, Seton Hall 2x, Rutgers, Depaul, Marshall, and South Florida. I'm sorry but unless Pittsnoggle finds a year of eligibility and plays on wednesday, i just can't back this team. Look for Providence to score the win in a slight upset. Line might open with WVU -3. I wouldn't really advise playing this game but if I were to, I would take the points and pray that the right Providence team shows up.
Marquette (possibly -6) against SJU
Well, SJU is finally back in the BE tourney for the first time since 2003. And they are playing the night game which means the crowd will be a nice and liquored up (or passed out). Well, I'm not sure if that will get the job done for SJU who I think will be greatly overmatched. Norm Roberts has done a great job with a mediocre team but they have shown many times this year that they can easily be overmatched. Both teams might have serious injury issues but I think the loss of Lamont Hamilton is a bigger blow for SJU. While Marquette has been inconsistent down the stretch, I think they proved with the win against Pitt that they are worthy of top 25 status. Look for Marquette to cover -6 going away and just hope that SJU doesn't pull the back door cover as you know they won't go down without a fight.
I will reaffirm some of these picks wednesday when i see the acctual lines but these are my thoughts for now. Should be a great tourney...
Some early thoughts on round 2:
Nova will be able to give Gtown a solid game. keep an eye on the wildcatss here. If they can get Gtown's big men in foul trouble early (and keep sumpter on the floor), this should be a great game.
Syracuse or Uconn will give the Irish trouble. As an ND grad, I'm pleased with how this team has played and love the teamwork they display. But russell carter still takes too many ill-advised shots and their defense goes through too many lapses. if they don't get out to a lead early, it could be another early exit for the irish.
Lville will take care of either WVU or Providence. I like how they are playing right now and look for them to carry momentum into the weekend.
Pitt will be in for a tough test against Marquette but I think marquette shot it's load on saturday night. Pitt will not lose back to back to them. I think pittsburgh rolls in a rematch.
GL To all....
posted by bdogg
March 7 2007 12:27am -
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yesterday
1-0
since re-posting
40-17
ytd on Got Picks
49-27
Today
Villanova -4 -110
S Miss -4 -105
will probably add a couple of more later on
glta
posted by bingcrosby
March 7 2007 7:48am -
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Put your make-up on and fix your hair up pretty.
From the Boardwalk in AC……..UR/Fordham Over 116
Small play for me as I’ve been bad with UR games this year. First 13 A-10 games, UR scored 60+ only twice. Their final 3:
St. Joe’s W 78-68 (SJU 4th at 67.3 ppg)
at STL L 68-78 (STL 2nd at 66.6 ppg)
URI W 71-69 (URI 10th at 73.5 ppg)
Against two of the better A-10 D’s, UR scored 78 and 68. FU is first, giving up 63.7ppg. UR playing with some confidence, I think they can hit close to 60. First mtg was FU 58-55. That was UR’s 1st A-10 game when they couldn’t score at all.
Fordham doesn’t score much either, at 65.6ppg. However, they may be playing with some offensive confidence as well as final 4 they scored 86, 71, 91, 80 (all vs some pretty bad D’s though). Good thing (and frustrating thing when you are sitting there) is that UR fouls a whole bunch at the end of games. They could be down 15 with a minute left and they’ll still be fouling. A good way to get a few extra points at the end.
Offense is improved from earlier in the season. Hopefully they can continue to knock down shots (esp the 3’s).
Nice BE preview bdogg.
GL.
A-10: 24-20-2
Other: 14-12-1
posted by teeks75
March 7 2007 7:53am -
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So it looks like Nova opened at -4.5. I'm playing it for 4 units, but I bought the hook. Should win by 8+ but just playing it safe.
Syracuse opened -3.5. I might stay away and take a look at the Under. My concern with Uconn is that they shoot poorly from the outside. Syracuse will try to slow it down and force them to settle for jump shots. Under might have some potential.
BE Play:
Villanova -4 (bought the hook) 4 units.
GL to all.
posted by bdogg
March 7 2007 10:04am -
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VILLANOVA-4(bought hook)
depaul 1st time round in MSG big east tourney, nova has upperclassman been here done it! Also depaul is horrendous from free throw line will come down to line nova pulls away late
NC CHARLOTE+2(bought hook)
live and die by the 3 lets hope they get hot!
straight and reversed
be back with more as games go!
GOODLUCK TODAY$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$
posted by gtnp
March 7 2007 10:46am -
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I dont advise playing it but I also just put a small wager on Villanova to win the tourament. Got them at 8-1 odds.
$50 to win $400.
Figure why not!
posted by bdogg
March 7 2007 11:13am -
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Syracuse -3 1/2
posted by mj1430
March 7 2007 1:49pm -
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Nice 8 pt. win by 'Nova. Gee, an 8 pt. win. Funny how that happens.
"I look for an 8-10 point win here. I think the line is Nova -4. This is one of my top 2 games for Wednesday."
On to the next game, as tempting as Syracuse looks, I am going to stay away from the sides and just play the under. I got it at 137. As I said, Syracuse could easily win by double digits, but I dont' see Calhoun and the boys rolling over. UConn shoots poorly from the outside and I'm looking for Syracuse's zone to keep them in check. I was tempted to also play the 1H under but it's a little too low at 64 so I'll just stick with the game, even though i see at least one of these teams getting off to a slow start. Looking for a 63-58 type final.
Syracuse/UConn Under 137 for 1.5 units
BE tourney so far:
1-0, up 3.25 units
(btw, Syracuse line now down to -3)
posted by bdogg
March 7 2007 2:24pm -
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Won't count this toward the record but I like Syracuse in the 2H. I got them at -3 but now it's up to -3.5. Hopefully syracuse won't do their typical choke job. But I don't see continuing to shoot 48% from the field... Look for a different 2H.
GL
posted by bdogg
March 7 2007 3:43pm -
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teeks any thougjts on the over under on the duquaine game ive pick rode
you a few times with duquaine, your very good with this team!!!
posted by inthenegativ
March 7 2007 4:52pm -
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well, an exciting afternoon in the BE. Hope people hopped on Syracuse 2H. I knew UConn was playing over their head. Also recovered my loss on the Under for the game by taking the 2H under at 73.5 as posted in the chat. Picked up 4 units on 2H plays but won't count it toward the record.
BE plays 1-1, up 1.75 Units.
For tonight, I'm rolling with
Providence +4 (buying the hook) for 2 units
Marquette -7 for 3 units.
GL To All. I'll be at the Garden tomorrow but will post my plays in the morning...
posted by bdogg
March 7 2007 5:32pm -
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adding
Temple +3 -119
Providence +4 -125
glta
posted by bingcrosby
March 7 2007 6:41pm -
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2 plays for me tonight
West Virginia -3
California -4.5
nickle on each....GL
posted by phball101
March 7 2007 6:53pm -
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nice picture phball
posted by granite469
March 7 2007 6:58pm -
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anybody get a final line on the ST Louis game, my local had it down to -6 but I dont see that anywhere. I had it -9 maybe 8.5 I wanted the points with Duq's but i laid off because of his line.
posted by shoey2709
March 7 2007 7:30pm -
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went 1-2 last night on the small, small plays - didn't add to records as they were about 10% plays.
98-76 ytd ats
95-76 reg season
3-0 tourneys
2 tonight back on regular plays
StJohns +7.5(-115)
N.AZ/Weber St. over 148.5 (-105)
Gl Everybody!!
posted by astroman
March 7 2007 8:55pm -
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well, if that marquette game wasn't one of the luckier covers out there. holy shit. was sweating that out but ultimately got the win. unfortunately in the early game WVU decided to set a record for most 3s in a BE game with 17 or something like that. very impressive, but i don't see them advancing past tomorrow.
Summary on the day:
2-2 on posted plays, up 2.75 units.
(also hit Cuse 2h and Cuse Under 2H for an additional 4 units as posted in the chat; total for the day +6.75)
I'll take it. GL on your plays tomorrow.
posted by bdogg
March 7 2007 11:45pm -
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"phball101":25u8p11s
2 plays for me tonight
West Virginia -3
California -4.5
nickle on each....GL
$$$$$
$$$$$
posted by phball101
March 8 2007 1:16am