3/3/07-FountainofYouth(10-GP)&SantaAnitaHndcp(10-SA)
Good Luck All
posted by southern5061
11 replies
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Well, DrtNapper, love to hear what you have for this race....
Im not buying into the hype on NoBiz like ShowBiz. I truly believe that the 8 Scat Daddy (KY) 3/1 is the class of the field.
As a long shot, i like the 1 Johannesburg Star (KY) 15/1.
Im gonna wait to see what others have... but as of now... ill be playing an exacta box of
8/1
and two nice wagers on the 1 to show, and the 8 to place.
good luck all
posted by southern5061
March 3 2007 9:33am -
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Well here are the PPs for the F of Y -
http://www.drf.com/row/pps/07fountainofyouth.pdf [drf.com]">http://www.drf.com/row/pps/07fountainofyouth.pdf [drf.com]>
And a breakdown of the field -
Gulfstream Park - Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2)
By BRIAN POCHMAN
Johannesburg Star: He posted a big Beyer figure in a gate-to-wire romp to break his maiden just two starts ago and he appeared to have the Count Fleet won at the top of the stretch in his most recent start but he wasn't able to put away the rail running Pink Viper; this is a tough assignment for him but a sharp recent workout and a favorable rail post give him some appeal.
Hal's My Hope: This just looks like a very tough spot for this colt to land in after taking advantage of a slow early pace to post a narrow victory at better than 100-1 in his most recent start; it's tough to take a favorable view of this runner vs. the likes of these.
Drums of Thunder: This colt desrves a lot of credit for the fine run he made in the Holy Bull while making his 3-y-o debut and he's a handy colt who has the positional speed to help him negotiate a favorable trip; maybe Nobiz Like Shobiz simply has too much talent for him, but going to respect his chances today based on the effort he gave in the Holy Bull.
Stormello : He's one of two G1 winners in here and if his most recent workout is any indication then he's set to return running for his 3-y-o debut; this quick footed colt has shown some versatility and to this point this colt really hasn't gotten the respect from the wagering public that he probably deserves; So. Cal. shipper certainly adds some appeal to this event.
Nobiz Like Shobiz: This is the name horse in here and he's shown that he isn't at all short on natural ability and his most recent start was a solid effort for his 3-y-o debut; however, he was a bit clumsy through the lane last out and he seemed to have trouble switching leads, so he does still seem to be ironing out part of his game; regardless, his talent alone makes him one to fear.
Meritocracy: One of two in here for the Pletcher barn and this appears to be the lesser of the two, especially with John V. aboard the other one; this is his first foray into the graded stakes ranks and he's going to need the race of his career to get the job done vs. these.
Divine Master: Like Hal's My Hope in here this colt has to be regarded as an outsider looking in as he's yet to run a race that is good enough to suggest that he can compete at this level of competition.
Scat Daddy: This colt has flashed ability from day one and he was sent to post at 3.7-1 in the BC Juvenile before finishing a tiring third behind a couple of today's rivals in the G3 Holy Bull last out; this colt does hold a decision over a less experienced Nobiz Like Shobiz, but would have liked to have seen more from this one through the stretch last out.
Adore the Gold: His only blemish from five starts came in a sub par effort in the G3 Nashua at Aqueduct behind a talented runner in Day Pass and he comes here off a career best effort in the G2 Swale where he earned a strong Beyer speed figure of 102; it's fair to question his effectiveness at today's 1 1/8m distance at this point, but he did stretchout to win a 100K stakes at Delaware in just his 2nd career start, so there's some evidence to suggest that he can handle the task.
Be back later
- Drt
posted by drtnapper07
March 3 2007 9:48am -
0 likes
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In addition to the F of Y, a very taleted field of 3 yr olds prepping for the derby - There is a BIG race in Santa Anita for 4yr olds & up ---
Santa Anita Handicap ---
Lava Man is loaded up with weight - Is it enough to slow him down?
PPs -
http://www.drf.com/row/pps/07santaanitahandicap.pdf [drf.com]">http://www.drf.com/row/pps/07santaanitahandicap.pdf [drf.com]>
A Closer Look
Santa Anita - Santa Anita Handicap (G1)
By ART GROPPER
Awesome Gem: Behind similar in the Strub, which snapped a perfect 3-for-3 Santa Anita main track streak; Grade 2 stakes winner likes to wind up from far back and he should see a very strong pace up front; must show a much better passing gear than latest to shock these.
El Roblar: Goes for trainer Mandella, who has owned this race the last 10 years with 3 winners (2005 Rock Hard Ten, '98 Malek and '97 Siphon); good 3rd over the track with a career-Top Beyer speed figure, although finished behind a few of these in that start; his stakes win occurred on turf; have to think the barn was pointing to this and sire finished 2nd in the SA Derby; using in exotics.
Boboman: The other Mandella entrant is a mystery horse, because he's never been on dirt; troubled in the San Marcos on grass as the 6-5 favorite in last; his main track works are terrific and reunites with multiple-win rider Solis; out of a G2-placed dam (137K); Mandella does wonders in this race and Bobo' looms a major threat ifcan transfer super grass form to dirt.
Ball Four: Tough beat in the San Antonio as Molengao got up in the final stride; the added distance following a new Top could mean a possible bounce; likely won't make an easy lead with Spring At Last, Lava Man and McCann's Mojave going early here.
Spring At Last: Sibling to G1 Sharp Lisa (658K) has fired strongly in 2-of-3 Santa Anita starts, but you have to wonder about the distance after coming up short in the lane at 9 furlongs; the 3-back winner returned to victory in a G2 (107 Beyer) next out; may get caught up in what could be a rapid pace with Lava Man-Ball Four-McCann's Mojave; pace factor.
Molengao (BRZ): Espinoza reunites for the 1st time since Jan 2006 allowance win; the rider won the Big 'Cap in 2004 on Southern Image; late-running style fits well at this distance, although Lava Man had his number throughout 2006; he's a quality closer in a race filled with speed and Espinoza is a hard-nosed money rider; the pick.
Lava Man: Winner of 5 Grade 1's, he's the defending Champion of the Big Cap; his last 3 starts at Santa Anita are a Grade 2 victory paired with two Million-dollar triumphs; handled in the B. Cup by Horse of the Year Invasor, who Beyered 109 when winning a troubled G1 Donn Handicap next out; Lava' rated to win in last on the grass instead of trying Invasor out of town; can stalk and win, which is a tactic he may need to employ in a race loaded with speed; he's giving away 7 pounds to the field, which seems the main knock against.
Arson Squad: Got up to win the Strub and has clearly prospered when sent longer distances with 10 furlongs right up his alley; was behind similar before latest, which was a career Top effort and seems to be the 'now' horse; a logical contender.
McCann's Mojave: That was an amazing upset victory in the Sunshine Millions as he set a solid pace, then kept on going and going at 33-1 odds; the race looks even better since Silver Wagon drilled a G2 field at LRL next out (109 Beyer); there's plenty of speed to his inside, but he's capable of a 21-quarter here, witnessed in the 2005 Ancient Title; the outside draw and the possibility of a bounce with a lot of speed to his inside are the drawbacks.
Be back later -
- Drt
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posted by drtnapper07
March 3 2007 9:53am -
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My longshot fillers for Santa Anita are as follows:
1 Awesome Gem (KY) 10/1
3 Boboman (KY) 12/1
posted by southern5061
March 3 2007 11:01am -
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Going to do the SA Handicap first ---
Certainly the biggest race of the day (4 yr olds & up)
The big question here is can Lava Man overcome the 7-10 pounds extra weight that he is giving to the rest of the field. The answer is simply - YES - HOWEVER ----
However - the race could fall apart due to speed. #9 McCann's Mojave (A favorite horse of mine - for a couple of reasons) got a shit draw out at the #9 post and will have to get up in a hurry or his day will be over quickly. I am assuming he gets his ass up there and the #9 and #4 - Ball Four will be up front setting a fast pace. I am going to assume these two faulter in some fashion with #4 possibly hanging on to hit the board.
Question is what will Lava Man be doing or does it matter --- Probably doesn't matter - OR DOES IT. Looking at Lava Man's last nine races - he dominated 8 and lost 1 (BC Classic) --- Well isn't that the shits --- Lava Man finished 15 lengths back with great horses in the field - Invasor - Bernardini - PremiumTap. In the JockeyClub versus more great horses LavaMan pulls up to finish 45 lengths back with Borrego Suave and Sun King in the field.
What is it with this horse - I would love to see him actually race against these other great horses but he seems to give up - either he wins the race beating good horses or completely missing the board against great horses. Are there great horses in this field? - Not really, but with the weight differential, does it make up for it?
In order of likely winners -
Lava Man
Arson Squad
Awesome Gem - Boboman (tied)
Ball Four - Molengao (tied)
McCann's Mojave
Looking at ML odds of these seven -
1 Awesome Gem 10-1
3 Boboman 12-1
4 Ball Four 15-1
6 Molengao 6-1
7 Lava Man 4-5
8 Arson Squad 9-2
9 McCann's Mojave 15-1
Picks -
If Lava Man gets knocked too much because of the weight and is 7-5 or greater - I'll jump on him 10 units to win
If Lava Man is under money - say 3-5 - I will pass and go for the upset
with #1 or #3
Exotics-
I see good value in the 1 3 & 4
also love the 7-1-3,4 TRI
On Paper I say - 7-8-1-(3, 4 or 6)
Value Exotic 1,8 - 1,8 - 3,4,6
Super Value Exotic 1,3 - 1,3 - 4,6
Should be a really good race.
- Drt
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posted by drtnapper07
March 3 2007 12:37pm -
0 likes
Southern -
We both have 1 & 3 in the SA Handicap -
Definitely going to use those two.
posted by drtnapper07
March 3 2007 1:14pm -
0 likes
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Now a quick look at the Derby Prep -
Fountain of Youth
Hard to argue against 3 & 5
#3 & #5 are the picks
#4 has a huge question mark coming off the biggest lay-off and could break up the 3-5 party or fall flat on his face.????
#8 & #9 are good but also have questions - especially the #9 at this distance.
I see no other way to play this
#3 to win because of the VALUE
with EXOTICS
3,5 - 3,5 - 4,8,9
Good Luck Bitchas
- Drt
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posted by drtnapper07
March 3 2007 1:24pm -
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Assuming the 3 & 5 finish as close as I think they will -
I may flip that exotic for insurance with a small play
4,8,9 - 3,5 - 3,5
in case there is an upset.
Basically, i think no horse will split the 3 & 5 (little room for a horse to finish there)
- Drt
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posted by drtnapper07
March 3 2007 1:27pm -
0 likes
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Got some E-mails regarding times of the races ---
F of Y - 5:24 Florida Time
http://www.drf.com/entries/03/eGP03.html?rn=434876#10 [drf.com]">http://www.drf.com/entries/03/eGP03.html?rn=434876#10 [drf.com]>
SA Hand - 5:02 California Time (8:02 EST - I think)
http://www.drf.com/entries/03/eSA03.html?rn=434876#10 [drf.com]">http://www.drf.com/entries/03/eSA03.html?rn=434876#10 [drf.com]>
posted by drtnapper07
March 3 2007 1:57pm -
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Scat Daddy proves me right.. class of the field....and turns a nice price on the WPS
8 SCAT DADDY $2 13.80 6.20 2.80
posted by southern5061
March 3 2007 5:53pm -
0 likes
March 4, 2007
Aqueduct Park
Race 8
2 Her Royal Nibs 9/2
9 Towering Escape 5/1
11 Magnolia Jackson 3/1
10 Gold Like U 6/1
2 Her Royal Nibs - Is worth looking at and may be a wager at today's distance and surface lately. 9 Towering Escape - This one has been running solidly lately while recording sharp Figures. Looks very good to be close to the front end at the first call. 11 Magnolia Jackson - Had one of the strongest figures of this group in last race.
# 2 HER ROYAL NIBS 9/2 $$$ WPS $$$
EXACTA BOX 2-9-11-10
posted by wolfman
March 4 2007 12:32pm