Rough start to my week. Tonight I’m playing Dayton/Temple Over 147.5. Wasn’t sure which way this would move, so booked this morning.
7 of Temple’s L9 have gone over, and at home Over is 8-4. Over is 10-3 L13 overall for Dayton and away Over is 6-5. Flyers are w/o M. Scott, 3rd in scoring, rebounding at 10ppg and 4.4 rpg. Only sr on team missed all of last two. Still gonna go with the Over.
Owls L4 at home scored: 81 vs CHAR (72…+9), 98 vs UMass (69…+29), 109 vs SBU (81…+28) and 89 vs LAS (77…+12). Dayton (71ppg) gives up one less ppg than CHAR. Prior 3 A-10 home games scored 77 vs URI (74….+3), 85 vs STL (67…+18) and 67 vs SJU (67….E). Based on these #’s, Temple should hit at least Dayton’s avg of 71, and then some more. I’m hoping for low 80s.
Dayton playing Owls D that is 12th in ppg, giving up 79. In their L4 road games, Dayton has faced the D’s ranked 2, 3, 4, and 13, averaging 63ppg in those (those teams give up about 67ppg avg). Even w/o Scott, I think Flyers can hit 70+ vs this defense. Also in those 4, they basically gave up what opp averages (Temple scoring 82ppg). (L4 home haven’t been much better going against D’s #1, 4, 6, 7 who is GW, giving up 10ppg fewer than Temple, so L8 have only faced one D giving up 70+ ppg).
Other factors I like:
Both teams in top half of A-10 in FG% offense (Temple 3rd, 48.5%; Dayton 6th, 47.1%)
Both teams in bottom half of A-10 FG% defense (Temple 10th, 48.4%; Dayton 8th, 45.4%)
Game has top 3 scorers in A-10 games: 1. Tyndale (T) 21.6; 2. Roberts (D) 19.6; 3. Christmas (T) 19.4. And Salisbury (T) is 7th at 17.4.
Down the stretch, if fouling in close game, Roberts leads A-10 in FT% at 93%. Christmas is 6th at 84%.
GL.
A-10: 24-18-2
Other: 13-11-1
