Dayton/Xavier Over 140
Xavier last 10 failed to hit 80 only 3 times, averaging 84.6. On A-10 road all year: 71 FU (1st/+8), 65 STL (4th/-3), 74 St. Joe’s (2nd/+8), 92 SBU (13th/+12), 91 Duq (14th/about –4 with new style), 87 GW (6th/+18). Dayton is 8th at 71 ppg. Another chance to show they belong in the dance, beating a rival that is 14-1 at home with game on ESPNU. First mtg score was X 83-67 and X only hit 5 3’s (make almost 9/g in A-10). Dayton gives up 71ppg in league, X avg 81. Should be in upper 70’s and they shoot over 74% FTs for down the stretch.
Dayton had 43 at the half last game at Xavier. Last home game vs UMass, they had a horrible first 10 minutes, ended up scoring 25 in the half, then 44 in the 2H. I think at home they should hit 70+ even though Xavier has been playing some strong D.
Over 8-2-1 L11 Xavier games.
Over 9-3 L12 Dayton games.
STL/UMass Over 134
UMass been scoring well this season (80.5ppg). Home games: SBU 83 (+3), URI 77 (+4), UR 72 (+4), Duq 101 (about +6), Temple 88 (+8), GW 91 (+22). STL gives up 68ppg. Vs teams that give up less than 70 in A-10 games, UMass has scored 74 at FU (63ppg), 77 at Xavier (68ppg), 72 vs UR (68ppg), and 91 vs GW (69ppg). STL has held some teams down, but based on this I think UMass hits at least 70, hopefully close to 80.
Problem is UMass D has been so good (maybe best shot-blocker in country in Lasme…s/b A-10 player of year), teams not scoring much (#1 in FG% D, 40.2%). STL only scores 67.5 in A-10, UMass gives up 71. However in A-10 road games, Over is 5-1 for STL: O137 (scored 150), U135.5 (133), O125 (135), O120.5 (145), O127.5 (164), and O129 (143). If STL’s final score begins with a 6, I’m feeling good about this.
GL. And nice work BCrosby, keep it going.
A-10: 23-17-2
Other: 13-11-1