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Considerations for Selecting games to Cap

I have had a some PM's regarding the Games chosen to factor in the Diamond Cutters. I won't go into details, because you just don't do that. Find what works and stick with it. Tweak it from time to time and leave it alone !!

Here are a couple of items that I use and everyone should be using these when looking for quality in any certain game. Again, everyone has their own style, but a lot of players are blind to the naked eye. Don't jump because something looks good. Here are some examples that look good, but read between the lines when deciding if you really want some of a certain game or not.

These games are for Saturday Feb 24th, 2007:

1) XAVIER 20-7 @ Dayton 16-10 **** Xavier - 6 1/2

Better team is Xavier, but let's look at it in a different way. Xavier is 4-6 on the road while Dayton is 15-1 at home, hmmm. Now if these were their overall record, Dayton + the points looks VERY GOOD huh ? Here is another factor. Xavier is 16-8 ATS while Dayton is 9-13 ATS. Uh Oh ! You have to use the total ATS, because that follows any team all season. Daytons road record doesnt follow them at home, especially not being 15-1 at home.

This game wouldn't qualify because Dayton has a losing ATS mark and once again, that follows a team everywhere. Now that could be voided out if Dayton scores high enough, but I don't think they would, so I won't even consider this game !

2) Nevada 25-2 @ Boise State 16-10 ***** Nevada - 2

Clearly Nevada is the better team. Nevada -2 looks to easy and we know when it looks easy, it's usually isnt. Nevada is ROCK solid on the road with an 11-1 mark while Boise State is ROCK solid at home with a 12-1 mark. Now looking at it this way, the line makes more sense than 25-2 vs 16-10 huh ? Nevada is 12-8-3 ATS while Bosie St is 13-10 ATS. Both above .500

This game has QUALIFIED and will be used as a Diamond Cutter finalist. It will all be up to the numbers now and if it comes back at 85% or higher, the selection in the game would be considered DIAMOND status ! Going in, I would say Nevada is the play, but you have to TRUST the number game, even if it flip - flops on you and says Boise will be your winner.

Nothing major here, just some common things we should be using when selecting games to look at. Time is money and capping takes time. We all want to get paid, so if were going to do it, let's do it right. Of course, no matter what you do, there will be winning days and losing days, but give yourself the best possible chance.

Anyway, Good Luck and hopefully this will give you a different perspective when deciding what games to take a peek at. I know it has really helped me. This has nothing to do with selecting a winner !!!

sundaybreak

posted by sundaybreak

Feb. 23 2007 11:40pm

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