Congrats to all winners yesterday, I pretty much juiced out. MVC GOWs now 7-0, nice work PC.
I took the Under in Sunday’s game and the Duquesne Over gods punished me.
Charlotte/Duquesne Over 176
Charlotte scores pretty miserably on the road (63ppg overall), but they haven’t faced the bottom 4 D’s yet (H or A). On the road, they’ve faced #3, 4, 5, 7, 8, 9, D’s in A-10 ppg. #9 is URI giving up 72ppg in A-10, Charlotte scored 69 there this past weekend. #14 is Duq at 87.5 ppg, but 92.5 in new style or a 20-pt difference from the worst A-10 D 49ers have faced on the road. Worst A-10 ppg D Charlotte has faced at home is La Salle (76) and they scored 87 vs them. And vs the #1 and #2 D’s at home (giving up 63 and 65) Charlotte scored 72 and 70.
Charlotte and Duquesne 12th and 13th in FG % D (49.6% and 51.6%).
Charlotte does have the worst FG% in A-10 at 41%, but that’s because almost half their shots (44%) have been 3 point attempts, 104-292, 35.6% (2nd most made and attempted in A-10 behind Duq). Duq gives up A-10 worst 44% on 3’s (and amount, 114).
Duq at home in system:
93 vs Dayton (71ppg) +22
96 vs Temple (79ppg) +17
93 vs Xavier (67ppg) +26
87 vs URI (72ppg) +15
Average is 92ppg. Average over what opp gives up is 20 points.
Charlotte gives up 70ppg, add 20 to that and you get just about what Dukes have averaged at home.
Magic number for Duquesne is 90. Since the new style they are 5-0 when hitting 90+, and 0-4 when not hitting 90. I’m sure after three straight w/o 90 they’ll be pushing real hard to hit that number. Charlotte is 1-9 in road games (yes, of course the W was vs UR), so not a big shock if the Dukes win. And when they win, they hit 90+. I think Duquesne hits for 90+ and Charlotte should at a minimum be in the upper 80’s (was hoping total would be around 170, but will still play at 176).
Over is 7-2 in Duq 9 home games.
Over is 7-3 L10 overall for Charlotte.
Xavier –11
Big game for Xavier as they are still in at-large contention. Great oppt to knock-off 1st place team in A-10 (by half game) as they are extremely tough at Cintas Center. Last seven games overall they have been rolling people: UR 71-50, at GW 87-58, STL 76-57, CHA 91-57, at Duq 91-93, Dayton 83-67, at SBU 92-66. 9-2-1 ATS L12 home games.
URI has been biggest surprise in A-10 and are 6-5 ATS away from home. But look at their road scores, used non-conf games as that is where they faced better comp. First # is opp RPI then how much they lost by:
17 Kansas, -11
26 BC, -18
67 Providence, -29
97 Ohio, -28
They also lost at home to DePaul (56) by 8. Best teams in A-10 they faced on the road were STL (76) L by 4 and UMass (60) L by 22 (they did beat UMass at home by 3).
Xavier is 48 in the RPI, URI 102. In their L6, Xavier beat Dayton (75) by 16 at home, STL (76) by 19 at home and on the road GW (89) by 29. Earlier beat UMass at home by 6.
Based on these scores for URI and Xavier, playing at the Cintas Center, and that Xavier may want to make a statement here for the committee, I see them dropping the hammer on the Rams.
SBU +21
UMass needs some style points too for at-large hopes, but running it up vs 6-19 SBU won’t help get you in. UMass should hit around 90 vs the worst FG% D in A-10, but probably get bored. They give up 73. SBU is trying to hold on to the 12th spot so they can qualify for A-10 Tourn (not that they’re gonna win here, but some effort would be nice). SBU 6-2 ATS away, UMass 4-5 ATS at home. Favs by 15+, UMass 1-3 ATS; Dogs by 15+, SBU 2-0. Holding UMass to 90 or less would be nice. Over may be worth a look too.
GL.
A-10: 21-16-2
Other: 13-11-1
