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Sorry to anyone who played Niagara, they totally tanked the 2nd half. I hate Friday NCAA and know better. Booked one for Saturday already.
HILLY NCAA GOW: Nova -7
Wildcats are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 road games following three or more consecutive home games.
Wildcats are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.
Wildcats are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games as a road favorite.
Pirates are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog of 7.0-12.5.
Pirates are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.
Pirates are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 Saturday games.
We get back on the right track with this bad boy!!
posted by hilly
Feb. 9 2007 11:43pm -
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GLTA !!!!!!
Fellas.. check out what Sunday & I (BP) wrote ... I think its a good thread ... check it out http://www.gotpicks.com/forums/viewtopic.php?t=4040
Also .. Today is SATURDAY, and Team FLA will be posting again today .. so look for it !!!
See you soon fellas!!! GOOD LUCK !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
posted by dab2dap
Feb. 10 2007 12:25am -
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Yes, BP started a VERY GOOD Thread guys !!! Feel free to add to it !!!!
Anyway, I will be away tomorrow and just wanted to throw out this one play. I just finish running everything on it ( 52 Minutes ) and I will give you the pick, but instead of writing a bio, I will post the system that I used for this selection.
Virginia @ Virginia Tech ********** Hokies laying 4
Va. Tech + 4 Home Field Advantage
Va. Tech + 3 In-State Game
Va. Tech + 3 In Conference game at home
Va. Tech + 4 10+ Wins
Va. Tech + 10 ( 1 player avg over 15ppg )
Va. Tech + 21 ( 3 players avg over 10PPG - 7 each )
Va. Tech + 6 ( 2 players avg over 5 rebounds per game - 3pts each )
Va. Tech - 5 ( 1 Home Loss )
Va. Tech Total = 46 Points
Va. Tech SOS = 0.5743
Va. Tech Index = 24
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Virginia - 2 On Road in Conf
Virginia - 3 On Road in Conf In State**Weighted Category
Virginia + 6 In-State Game
Virginia + 20 ( 2 players avg over 15ppg - 10 each )
Virginia + 3 ( 1 Player 5+ Rebounds per game )
Virginia - 20 ( 4 Road Loses - 5 Points Each )
Virginia + 4 10+ Wins
Virginia + 7 ( 1 Player over 10ppg )
Virginia Total = 25
Virginia SOS = 0.5897
Virginia Index = 31
*************************************************************
So here is what I see. Look at the points for the players that avg over 10 and 15. Add and Subtract and you pretty much have your line huh ? 4
Virginia gets a lot of points for In-State games, but thats because of the Richmonds, Longwoods ( fixin to play ) and William and Mary's of the world. Take your 2 SOS' and subtract those. You have a UVA edge of 154.
Take the 154 and divide it by the amount of games UVA has played since they hold the edge here. You come up with 7. So you have to add that to UVA's total of 25. Remember you can only get a SOS by playing games since after all it is a " Strength of Schedule ". Now look at the Indexes. Looks like Uva holds the edge there as well, so subtract those totals and add those back to UVA's total score which would be 7 more.
By my Calculations, I have Va. Tech at 46 and UVA at 39. Subtract that difference and there ya go boys. It's a 7 point edge for the Hokies and thats breaking down almost every position, so with that said, the Hokies should cover the spread just beacuse of home field and Las Vegas has it added in. Man is that important !!! Now 7 doesnt seem BIG, but the line is 4 as of right now, if the number would have been 8, that would be a 100% double overage and thats what Las Vegas gambles on, PERCENTS.
I don't use assisst and Turnovers because they are an inconsistent stat. The categories I used are usually very accurate. You won't see a 20ppg scorer in College score 50 one night, then 4 the next.
I do have the numbers for every Division 1-A team and the sides have struggled lately, but I wont change my format. The O/U have been money off of this sytem !!!!
So with that said, I will play *****
VA.TECH - 4 ******* BOOKIE DIAMOND CUTTER # 1 NCAAB ****
Good Luck and BET WISELY $$$
2007 TOTALS 17-12 + 7.4 Units
NFL 4-2 - 0.6 Units
NCAAF 2-2 - 4.3 Units
O/U 4-0 + 9.8 Units
NCAAB 6-5 + 2.9 Units
2H 1-3 - 0.4 Units
-------------------------------
UNDERCARD ( UPSET ALERTS ) 0-4*** 1 Unit Each
posted by sundaybreak
Feb. 10 2007 1:14am -
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College Hoops 15-15-1....how awful!!!!!!!
Im going all out on this one!!!!!!!!!!!!
1. NC St. -1 1/2
good luck!!!
posted by bs390
Feb. 10 2007 3:47am -
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Two posted games today in the Big 10...
1st game:
Illinois at Indiana , 10am PST
These two team (and their coaches) do NOT like each other. Indiana would like nothing better
than to put a beat down on Illinois and that is exactly what they will do with a double-digit victory.
Several things going for Indiana in this game...Indiana has had a week to prepare for this one as
their last game was Feb 3rd against Iowa in which they lost 75-81. Also, Indiana lost to Illlinois
(on Illinois' home court) on Jan 23rd 43-51.
Some stats:
Illinois (18-8, 6-15 ATS, 4-10 ATS@home, 2-5 ATS Away)
Indiana (16-6, 11-8 ATS, 7-5 ATS@home, 4-3 ATS Away)
Indiana is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games.
Illinois is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 road games and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games against Indiana.
2nd game:
Penn State/Northwestern Under 117, 11:30am PST
The total has gone Under in 10 of Penn State's last 13 road games
The total has gone Under in 7 of Northwestern's the last 9 games
The total has gone Under in 4 of Northwestern's last 5 home games
Good Luck with All of your Plays!
posted by the_rookie10
Feb. 10 2007 10:22am -
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TAKING THIS PLAY BASED ON LINE MOVEMENT.
IT HAS MOVED 3 PTS IN THE LAST HALF HOUR
MARQ +5.5 2UNITS
posted by cruznbiyou
Feb. 10 2007 11:47am -
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I really like this game today @ 3:00 Eastern Time.........
South Florida + 11.5
Could they win this game outright?
We'll see
GLTA
posted by pisswilly
Feb. 10 2007 12:03pm -
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I was asked last night to post a few so here are 2 winners:
MILWAUKEE BUCKS -2
&
FORDHAM +4
GL!
posted by moneycanada
Feb. 10 2007 1:45pm -
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<center>Team FLA
PC / JT / BP
"We have more to offer than just Women & Beaches!" </center>
PC
Gentlemen, I have been playing all week and with the boys from FLA we haven't let up. I am very excited about the game I have for today and I am equally excited about next week's upcoming bracket busters that feature 5 plays we'll have on the Valley as they match up against Butler, Drexel, and Austin Peay to name a few. Today's play I had circled when Creighton started their 5 game win streak about 3 weeks ago. As a huge Jays fan and having spent time at Creighton, I can tell you now that this is the marquee game year to date in the valley. Both teams sit atop the Valley. SIU is ranked at #20 in the latest AP and Creighton made that push they had to make to get in the NCAA. A huge game for both teams but lots to look at....
**SIU is 13-1 SU at home this year.
**SIU will probably not have the services of all MVC guard Jamaal Tatum and if he does play, I don't know how effective he will be. I was a PG in a
previous life and I'll tell you right now that SIU not having Bell @100% or at all is huge. Currently the line is +3..I booked this game last night at
+3 1/2 but will release at 3. If you like this play or if your riding, hop it now because if Tatum is ruled out for tonight, the line will move...however, if it looks like he's starting, then you might catch an extra point.
**SIU has won 6 games in a row.
**SIU has won 7 games in a row in this series.
So..for all these reasons...we are taking CREIGHTON +3 to the house tonight at 6:00PMEST. You guys know I know the Valley. This is a huge statement game and the Jays are winning because of senior and veteran leadership that shows up this time of year. Here's my bombs and some of the reason to play Creighton: **The Jays are an eye popping 6-1 ATS on the road in the Valley this year having covered the last 6 in a row on the road. (SENIOR LEADERSHIP)
**The Jays have WON 5 out of 6 on the road in the Valley....that's impressive no matter what conference you play in.
**Funk is dying to beat SIU and will have no better chance to do so. Look for a big game from him. If Tatum is out or hindered, Funk will finally be matched up against a lesser defender or a not 100% Tatum. I can't tell you how big this is. It will give him time to release...and ask Kyle Korver another Creighton alum in the NBA...how good a shooter Funk is.
**Did I mention the pub is heavy on SIU and the line is going the wrong way. However...watch the Tatum situation and I will post if I see an update on his status. Creighton is hot and so is SIU...this is one of the premier days of the game and anyone that's a Valley fan is excited about this one.Most will be bored senseless as the game will be completely defensive and slow. The total is listed at 115 and it will be the kind of basketball you see in the Midwest...great defense, 1/2 court offensive sets, and good fundamentals.
I'm on Creighton +3 as my Team FLA return play for today. Next week on Team FLA I will have my TEAM FLA GAME OF THE YEAR on Bracketbusters featuring a Valley team.
JT
I'm taking Dartmouth +12 over Princeton. Princeton isn't as good as years passed and are coming off a double ot victory last night. Meanwhile Dart. got their asses handed to them by Penn last night. I think this game is gonna be close. First look at the total. Its only 101 1/2. Princeton isn't gonna blow anyone out with their style of play. So not that many points will be scored. In this series the last 8 times these guys have played each other, Dart. is 6-1-1 ats. In those 8 games not one of them has Princeton won by over 12 points either. Also, Princeton is 0-5 ats in their last 5 ivy league games and 0-6 ats overall in their last 6. So i'm going with Big Green in this one. 3 unit play for me.
BP
Santa Clara -6.5
Santa Clara is a beast against under .500 opponents, and boy is Portland one of them. Portland is just weak overall as a team. Noting also that Portland is 0-3 ATS in games where they are Dogs of this amount of points. Santa Clara is a very SOLID Conference playing team (ATS) while Portland on the other hand continue to be weak in this category as well. I can truly keep going on this game, but won't ... I touched upon it for you, now let's just play it and hope for the best!!! I have ALOT of likes this Saturday, and this is my 2nd favorite play of the day! That say's alot! Good Luck!
********************
Team FLA Record: 21-10-1
Yesterday's Results
PC: No Play ()
JT: No Play ()
BP: No Play ()
posted by dab2dap
Feb. 10 2007 1:55pm -
0 likes
.
Saturday Night Ivys
Friday Night Ivys YTD 9-5
Saturday Night Ivys YTD 1-3
Yale -1 --- Yale just keeps on rolling
Harvard +17 1/2 --- Penn will roll but not by this much
Columbia -4 --- Damn Brown keeps finding a way to keep games
close - Not tonight.
Princeton -11 1/2 --- Princeton finally wins one SU last night after an 0-4
start on the road, but fails to cover. Really hate going against JT & T-FLA,
but Dartmouth is awful, however JT is right about the total in the game. I
still feel that Princeton rolls and covers somehow.
Bonus Play -
Butler -4
Bulldogs have covered 8 in a row ATS including 4 in a row ATS on the
road. See no reason to stop believing in the Bulldogs now. Do note,
Wright State is 9-1 at home --- Butler is 12-2 on the road. And Wright
State has covered 6 in a row ATS and 6 in a row ATS at home. Something
will give tonight - and it will be the Raiders. The fact that Butler won the
first meeting by 31 this year makes it look too easy --- It wont be that
easy - This game will be much closer - Butler by 7 or 8.
posted by drtnapper07
Feb. 10 2007 2:44pm -
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University of Florida -155
posted by makavelithedon
Feb. 10 2007 6:48pm -
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Fellas for those of you who played PC's Creighton .. please let me know (IN PM so we dont clogg the forum) if you won or lost.. I ask this to know how to record it.. PC sent me that writeup early early morning (8 am +3) .. and I posted it when I did 2ish and placed my bet right after at +4.5 ... as you know +4.5 is a winner ... let me know if you won or lost so I know how to properly record it. The blame on this is on me, I should of checked the line before I posted it! (it was clearly ATLEAST 4 - 4.5 by time of post)
Thanks just like to give people credit when due or not if not ... For the record I did get +4.5 PC so thank you on my end!!!
posted by dab2dap
Feb. 10 2007 8:23pm -
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I got them at +4.5 !! So, count it a winner!!
Frosty
posted by frosty
Feb. 10 2007 8:31pm -
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thanks frosty .. ya I have already gotten several PM saying upto 5 ...
Thanks guys
posted by dab2dap
Feb. 10 2007 8:33pm