2007 SUPERBOWL COLTS VERSUS BEARS
It’s the biggest game of the year and will be analyzed by millions over the next two weeks.
Wasn’t this the game that everyone could have predicted five weeks into the season? Both teams were undefeated and the Bears looked unstoppable.
Everyone will surely focus in on the quarterbacks as the “Biggest Mismatchâ€
posted by phantom
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Super Bowl First Impressions
Tony George
Tony George, President and CEO of Midwest Sports Consultants and Sports Audio Shows, is one of the most consistent and most respected handicappers in the sports gaming world. By: Tony George Date: Jan 22, 2007
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I was somewhat surprised at the opening line in the Super Bowl after Sunday's results. While I went 3-0 on Championship Sunday, looking like I had it completely wired, including cashing in the Colts as my Playoff Game of the Year, I admit I was lucky in many respects in that game, but I clearly felt that Peyton Manning was the best QB playing on Sunday in either game. The opening line here is anywhere from 6.5 to 7 points in favor of the Colts, as oddsmakers are unsure of Rex Grossman's ability to lead the Bears, and the popularity of Peyton Manning's quest for a title. Remember one thing, the line is based a lot on public perception folks.
What surprised me the most was the apparent lack of respect for the Bears, which is exactly why I also took them and the Over in their game. Have no illusions about the New Orleans Saints. They are a very good football team who were totally dominated by the Bears on Sunday. One has to wonder if the defense of the Bears still is not getting any respect, as they shut down a very good Saints offense and created many mis-matches and opportunities on Sunday. They once again were forcing turnovers and wreaking havoc on a very good running game, as well as shutting down big plays from the #1 ranked QB in the NFL.
As I look at the Total of 48.5, it seems about right, as both these teams will score in the Super Bowl. The Bears will have to rely on RB's Thomas, who had a great game against the Saints, and Cedric Benson. That opens up play action passing for Rex Grossman, which he needs, because he does make bad decisions when pressured. With a great defense and a solid 1-2 punch at running back, and a contrarians view at first glance, plus 15 years of experience at sports handicapping at a high level, the Bears look extremely appealing and ripe for a cover. Lovie Smith and his staff will again play the "no respect" card to their team in the upcoming 13 days of hype leading up to the big game. It worked against the Saints, but can it work against an AFC giant like the Colts?
On the other side of the coin, the Colts rallied from the biggest deficit in NFL history in a championship game and beat the New England Patriots, and at times it looked pretty ugly for the Colts, who were playing at home. If you do not realize that Peyton Manning may just be the Michael Jordan of QB's in the NFL, past and present, then you have been living under a rock. With 5184 yards throwing this year and 33 TD's, and a 95 QB rating, I would say he is on a roll. Although the Colts defense has answered the call in the playoffs, they allowed 27 points to the Pats at home (1 TD was a result of a returned Int for the Pats). Overall in their last 5 games the Colts defense has allowed only 16 ppg versus 21 ppg allowed by the Bears, so on paper it looks to be a Colts advantage, but do not be fooled, the Bears defense is for real and better than the Colts.
Special teams kickoff and punt coverage for the Colts is a problem, and we all know about the Bears return game, which is one of the best in the NFL, and remember that the big games in the NFL are usually decided by turnovers and special teams play, and a few big plays. At the end of the AFC game, myself and some buddies passed a piece of paper around the room and wrote down our opening line predictions, most of whom know their stuff, and mine was the Colts -4 and a Total of 46.5. Pretty close to the oddsmakers thoughts, but as the line climbs to -7 early on in favor of the Colts, there is a lot to consider before pulling the trigger on the popular choice.
posted by phantom
Jan. 23 2007 1:49pm -
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02/04/2007 SuperBowl Sunday
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Ben Burns Best of the Best
UNDER colts/bears
Game: Indianapolis Colts vs. Chicago Bears Game Time: 2/4/2007 6:30:00 PM Prediction: under Reason: Super Bowl totals are generally inflated by a few points to compensate for the large number of public bettors and their preference for betting the Over. Last week's high scoring results have helped to inflate the number even higher still. With two defensive-minded coaches, both in the Super Bowl for the first time, I feel that its too high. Its important not to read too much into last week's high scores. We only have to look back to last season when both Conference Championship games were high-scoring 'overs' and were followed by a low-scoring Super Bowl. Keep in mind that the Bears defense was the best in the NFC, allowing less than 16 points a game. While all the talk will be on Manning's big comeback, lets not forget the remarkable job the defense did in their first two playoff victories, holding the Ravens AND Chiefs to a combined 20 first downs, 360 total yards and 14 total points. Lovie Smith still doesn't have complete faith in Rex Grossman and will look to keep Manning off the field with a heavy dose of rushing plays. Contrary to public opinion, Dungy would like nothing more than to do the same. Last week, the Colts fell behind by double-digits so were forced to go to the air. However, Dungy loves their 'new image' of being a 'tough' team that can slug it on the ground. The Colts' final drive against Baltimore and their choice to run for the game-winning touchdown on 3rd down last week show a different type of Colts team than we've seen in previous seasons. Look for the final score to be much lower than expected as the UNDER improves to 5-2 the last seven times the Colts played away from Indianapolis.
posted by phantom
Jan. 23 2007 1:55pm -
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Nobody HOTTER right now than BEN BURNS ( 9-1 )! It will seem like an eternity for these two weeks to go by, but here is who we'll be closely looking at:
HOT SUPERBOWL SERVICES :
BURNS ( 9-1 ):
MALINSKY ( 3-1 ):
SULLIVAN ( 8-2 ):
posted by phantom
Jan. 23 2007 1:56pm -
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HOT SUPERBOWL SERVICES :
Update: 1-23-07
BURNS ( 9-1 ):*9-0 lifetime in SuperBowl picks.
Chicago/ Indy UNDER
MALINSKY ( 3-1 ):
SULLIVAN ( 8-2 ):
posted by phantom
Jan. 23 2007 1:56pm -
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SUPER BOWL BETTING: Books like looks of Colts
Indianapolis placed on 7-point pedestal in early line for Feb. 4 game
By MATT YOUMANS
REVIEW-JOURNAL
In a Super Bowl matchup made in heaven for Las Vegas sports books, Indianapolis Colts quarterback Peyton Manning will challenge the Chicago Bears and their monstrous defense.
The Colts are 7-point favorites over the Bears in Super Bowl XLI, which will be played Feb. 4 in Miami.
"I think this will be as good as you can get," MGM Mirage sports book director Robert Walker said after opening the line Sunday night. "I'm kind of excited to see Manning against the Bears' defense.
"This is the kind of matchup where we'll do record business."
The attraction of Manning, arguably the NFL's highest-profile quarterback, facing a storied, major-market franchise such as Chicago should increase fan interest and wagering.
A record $94.5 million was wagered in Nevada on last year's Super Bowl, and the state's 176 sports books won $8.8 million, according to figures from the Gaming Control Board.
The betting handle increased for the fifth consecutive year, up from $71.5 million in 2002. It could top $100 million this year.
"Everybody knows Peyton Manning, and now you've got Manning in a Super Bowl, so that's huge. It's a huge, huge matchup as far as intrigue," said Sunset Station sports book director Micah Roberts, adding that it's a "good possibility" the Bears and Colts will generate $100 million in wagers in the state.
MGM Mirage and Station Casinos both opened Indianapolis as a 6 1/2-point favorite, but the line quickly moved to 7 after early action showed up on the Colts.
"Nobody wanted any part of the Bears at 6 1/2," Walker said. "It looks like 7 is the right number. It will take a lot of money to get us off 7. We haven't taken any big bets at all."
But with two weeks of hype on the horizon, there is plenty of time for major wagers.
The total is 49, and within days, there will be hundreds of proposition bets posted.
Indianapolis advanced with a 38-34 victory over New England in the AFC Championship Game on Sunday. Manning led the Colts back from a 21-6 halftime deficit. The Colts closed as 3 1/2-point home favorites and drew most of the betting action.
"It's unbelievable how much money we took on that game," Walker said. "I guess everybody was under the impression this was Indianapolis' best chance to win. It's now or never, and that's what I thought, too."
The betting public was not so enamored with the Bears, who closed as 2 1/2-point home favorites in a 39-14 victory over the New Orleans Saints in the NFC Championship Game. The Saints were the obvious sentimental choice.
The Bears and Colts are opposites in many ways. Manning is a polished, premier quarterback, but Indianapolis has a soft defense. Chicago's Rex Grossman is an inconsistent quarterback, but his team's defense, led by linebacker Brian Urlacher, is blue-collar tough.
"I personally side with the team that is better on defense," Vegas Sports Authority handicapper Jim Kruger said. "The Bears don't appear to be that talented on offense, but they just keep winning.
"I think one of the key factors John Q. Public will look at is, how can you take the Bears against Manning? Grossman does not look like a quarterback who can lead a team to a Super Bowl. I also think the public will overlook Indianapolis' defensive shortcomings."
Kruger said his early opinion is to take the Bears plus-7, and he also sees the scoring going under the total of 49.
The Pittsburgh Steelers were 4-point favorites when they defeated the Seattle Seahawks 21-10 in last year's Super Bowl.
Walker said the sports books probably will be rooting for the Colts to win but fail to cover the point spread.
"I think the Colts will win the game, but I think it will be an exciting game," he said.
The money wagered by the public generally dwarfs what professional bettors play on the Super Bowl, and the prevailing opinion is that the public will put its faith in Manning and lay the points with Indianapolis.
"The Colts have a lot of respect with the betting public because of Manning," Roberts said.
"This is the biggest game of the year, and the public is what makes the line move. It's not about the wiseguys or anything else. It's public money that makes the game and determines where it goes."
posted by phantom
Jan. 23 2007 1:57pm -
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LAS VEGAS SUN
Las Vegas sports books on Sunday installed the Indianapolis Colts a 7-point favorite against the Chicago Bears in Super Bowl XLI, set for Feb. 4 in Miami.
The Bears breezed past the New Orleans Saints 39-14 in Sunday's NFC title game, covering the point spread of 2 1/2 to 3 points in Las Vegas sports books. Chicago improved its record against the point spread to 10-8 in 16 regular-season games and two playoff games.
The Colts beat the New England Patriots 38-34 after going off as a betting favorite of 3 1/2 to 4 points. Indy is now 11-8 (or 10-8-1, depending how you count Sunday's result) against the spread.
More intriguing to some football bettors was the over/under, or "total," of 49 points posted on the Super Bowl.
The over/under - a wager on both teams' combined score - is higher than the posted total in any of the Bears' games this season, belying Chicago's long-standing reputation as a defense-oriented team with a shaky quarterback that can be counted on to deliver "unders" at the betting window.
As is usually the case, the oddsmakers have solid reasoning behind their actions.
The Bears have, in fact, established themselves in the eyes of bettors as a bona fide "over" team. After Sunday's game sailed over the posted total of 43 1/2 points - the highest number attached to any Bears game this season - Chicago is now 13-4 with a push to the "over."
That performance does not appear to be any sort of fluke, either, as Chicago's recent games have played fairly true to form from a statistical perspective.
NFL fans and pundits have noted that the Bears' defense has been hurt by the loss of a couple of key players, tackle Tommie Harris and safety Mike Brown, to injuries this season. Their absence is also evident in a betting-oriented analysis.
Brown was lost for the season after six games due to a foot injury, while Harris missed Chicago's final five regular-season games along with the playoffs due to a hamstring injury.
According to international oddsmaker Simon Noble, a basic guideline for making NFL totals entails predicting how many yards of total offense there will be in a game, subtracting 325 and then dividing by 7 1/2. For example, in a game with 600 total offensive yards projected, the over/under would probably set at about 36 1/2.
Since Harris was KO'd, the Bears are 6-1 to the over. In six of those seven games, the Bears and their opponent amassed offensive yardage totals of 715, 677, 689, 681, 803 and 805 yards - figures that, going strictly by Noble's formula, would equate to over/unders ranging from 47 to 64 points. The actual posted over/unders ranged from 35 to 43 1/2.
Two of those seven games did not play to form. The one real outlier came Dec. 3 against the Vikings, when the teams combined for just 455 yards yet managed to go over the total of 34 when the Bears won 23-13. The Bears' 137-11 edge in return yardage made the difference. The other was Dec. 31, when the Bears and Packers combined for just 33 points despite compiling 689 yards.
Considering the offensive yardage totals in the Colts' most recent games - 774, 505, 561, 753, 673, 672 and 786 - a figure of 700, and therefore a projected total of at least 50 points, seems reasonable for the Super
posted by phantom
Jan. 23 2007 1:57pm -
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Sports ILL.
Dr.Z
What's Ahead
I really don't understand turnovers and why some teams are good at causing them and others aren't. I mean doesn't every defensive player want to strip the ball? Don't all defenses work at it? But to build a whole season on the turnover premise ... well, that might be OK for the regular season, even for an opponent such as the Saints, but I can't see it putting a Super Bowl trophy on the table.
So why do I assume that the Colts will be immune from the Bears' snatch and grab? Just a feeling that they're too experienced, too sound offensively, to get snookered that way.
I can't see Grossman beating anybody, if he played the way he did against the Saints. Then again, I don't know what kind of pressure Indy will bring.
"We're not a blitzing team," said Anthony McFarland, the DT imported from Tampa Bay to firm up the run defense. "We rely on our small, quick ends to get an outside rush, and our inside stunts to give us a push up the middle. And what if the Bears block all that and make Grossman comfortable? Or maybe if they go max-protect to give him time to air out the long ball? What then? Who blitzes?
"Um, might be different guys," McFarland said. "Nobody that I'm really aware of."
I think that's the only way Chicago can win, if Indy decides, just as New Orleans did in crunch time, that a serious blitz package is just too unsound, and the rush will be of the conventional variety. And I also don't know the condition of LCB Nick Harper's injured ankle that kept him out for three quarters against New England.
Chicago's springboard to success is a very strong ground game, but Indy's good against the run now that Rob Morris has joined the mix at strong linebacker, and Bob Sanders is in the secondary.
I see a big Indy win, with the hurry-up gradually breaking down an opportunistic but worn out Bear defense.
Final score: Colts 34, Bears 24
__________________
posted by phantom
Jan. 23 2007 1:58pm -
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Last year, a record $94.5 million was wagered in Nevada on Super Bowl XL, and the state's 176 sports books won $8.8 million, according to figures from the Gaming Control Board. The total betting handle on the big game increased for the fifth straight season and breaking the $100 million mark seems inevitable this year, especially with the popular matchup on tap.
Indianapolis and Chicago will meet from Dolphin Stadium on Feb. 4, 2007 in Miami, Florida in Super Bowl XLI. The AFC has dominated the NFC in the big game, winning five of six and seven of the past nine Super Bowls and oddsmakers aren’t expecting that streak to end this year.
The Colts have been tabbed as seven-point favorites, with the total listed at 49. The point-spread is set by the books to get equal action on both teams, but some experts think the number is off.
Chicago owns an impressive 7-1 record on the road this year. (AP Images)
“I think the line is very high. If this was a regular season game at Indy, the line might be 4½ to 5-points. When factoring in a homefield edge, we're essentially saying that right now if the Super Bowl was being played in Indy, it would be 9½ or 10,â€
posted by phantom
Jan. 23 2007 1:58pm -
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Series history
Since the Colts moved from Baltimore to Indianapolis in 1984, they have met the Bears five times, with Chicago winning the first four. Peyton Manning threw four TD passes in the most recent meeting, a 41-10 Indy rout at Soldier Field on Nov. 21, 2004. The five meetings, with the home team in CAPS:
1985 BEARS 17, Colts 10
1988 Bears 17, COLTS 13
1991 Bears 31, COLTS 17
2000 BEARS 27, Colts 24
2004 Colts 41, BEARS 10
Note: Including the Colts' years in Baltimore, they own a 22-17 series edge against Chicago.
posted by phantom
Jan. 23 2007 1:58pm -
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ATS and Money Line Trends
Favourites in the Super Bowl are 28-12 SU and own an ATS mark of 20-17-3, 54.05%.
Double-digit favourites are 9-4 SU and 7-5-1 ATS, 58.3%.
The SU winner is 32-5-3 ATS in the 39 previous Super Bowls, but as noted earlier, two of the losses have occurred in the last three years.
The NFC holds a 21-19 SU and 20-17-3 ATS edge all time, and has covered the spread in three of the last four Super Bowls.
The team that is the higher playoff seed is just 1-8-2 ATS in the last 11 Super Bowl games.
The team with the better record going into the game is 27-10 SU. (note: three times the teams had identical won-loss marks)
Halftime Trends
The team that wins the game SU owns a 29-11 ATS first half mark.
The team that wins the game ATS owns a 31-6-3 ATS mark in the first half.
The first half favourite is 21-19 ATS in the 40 previous Super Bowls.
Over 53% of the total points are scored in the second half of the game.
Over/Under Trends
There have been an average of 45.675 total PPG scored in the Super Bowl.
In ten domed Super Bowl games, the total points scored per game is 46.8
Overall, 14 of 21 Super Bowl games have gone OVER the total.
Nine of the last 14 games have gone OVER the total.
Three of the six games with totals posted 50 or higher went UNDER the total.
6-Point Teaser Trends
The underdog owns a 23-16-1 ATS Teaser mark in previous Super Bowls.
The favourite is 29-11 ATS in Teaser plays.
Execution and the pivotal role it plays in any football game is important, but it is even more critical in the Super Bowl. Rushing yards, passing yards per attempt, turnovers, and time of possession are four key statistical categories that often decide who wins, both SU and ATS. The following trends will demonstrate the importance of these statistics.
Teams that rush for more yards in the Super Bowl are 33-7 SU and 29-8-3 ATS.
Teams that average more passing yards per attempt are 35-5 SU and 30-7-3 ATS.
In the 40 previous Super Bowls, the team that has more turnovers has won just twice SU and five times ATS. In fact, the last time it happened straight up was in SB XIV, when Pittsburgh used a Super Bowl record 14.71 yards per pass attempt to offset a 3-1 TO disadvantage in defeating the Rams 31-19.
Teams that win the time of possession battle are 30-10 SU and 28-9-3 ATS.
Teams that hold an edge in at least three of these four key statistical categories are 35-1 SU and 30-5-1 ATS. However, New England qualified in both 2004 and 2005 and failed to cover either game.
Teams that win all four categories are 22-0 SU and 20-1-1 ATS. Ironically, the only ATS loss occurred back in 2005 in Philadelphia’s ATS win, citing further evidence that the Eagles covering the spread defied all logic.
posted by phantom
Jan. 24 2007 4:54pm -
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Pro Football Trend Report
INDIANAPOLIS (15 - 4) vs. CHICAGO (15 - 3) - 2/4/2007, 6:20 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
INDIANAPOLIS is 1-0 against the spread versus CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
INDIANAPOLIS is 1-0 straight up against CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
posted by phantom
Jan. 24 2007 4:55pm -
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Sunday, February 4th
Super Bowl XLI
Indianapolis:
13-3 Over away off 3+ ATS wins
40-21 Over away vs. winning teams
Chicago:
1-12 ATS off BB games scoring 25+ points
1-7 ATS off a turnover margin of +4 or better
_________________
posted by phantom
Jan. 24 2007 4:55pm -
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Analyzing the Line
January 22, 2007
By Chris David
Vegas Insider
Last year, a record $94.5 million was wagered in Nevada on Super Bowl XL, and the state's 176 sports books won $8.8 million, according to figures from the Gaming Control Board. The total betting handle on the big game increased for the fifth straight season and breaking the $100 million mark seems inevitable this year, especially with the popular matchup on tap.
Indianapolis and Chicago will meet from Dolphin Stadium on Feb. 4, 2007 in Miami, Florida in Super Bowl XLI. The AFC has dominated the NFC in the big game, winning five of six and seven of the past nine Super Bowls and oddsmakers aren’t expecting that streak to end this year.
The Colts have been tabbed as seven-point favorites, with the total listed at 49. The point-spread is set by the books to get equal action on both teams, but some experts think the number is off.
“I think the line is very high. If this was a regular season game at Indy, the line might be 4½ to 5-points. When factoring in a homefield edge, we're essentially saying that right now if the Super Bowl was being played in Indy, it would be 9½ or 10,â€
posted by phantom
Jan. 24 2007 4:56pm -
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BY ROMAN MODROWSKI Staff Reporter
Chicago Sun Times
The game is over. Super Bowl XLI has been played -- more than 10,000 times. It has been played in various weather conditions with evolving injury reports and thousands of game situations.
Bears fans shouldn't necessarily plan on attending a victory parade, but it appears the game will be much closer than what many experts are predicting. The Colts might be a seven-point favorite in Las Vegas, but there is a dissenting -- and powerful -- forecast.
The game was played by a simulation engine called Accuscore, which is so accurate that several pro sports teams are on board as clients.
''The median margin of victory is around 3.5 points in favor of the Colts,'' Accuscore chief operating officer Gibby McCaleb said. ''This game has a good chance of being very close, down to the wire.''
Accuscore is not designed to provide any type of betting line. In fact, it was designed by Stephen Oh -- while he was pursuing a masters in biological anthropology at Michigan -- to simulate human evolution.
''There is a lot of statistical modeling, forecasting and simulating done for the science community or the financial world,'' said McCaleb, a Chicago native. ''We do the same thing -- only for sports, which is far more interesting than genetics and world commodities to most of us.''
Impressive track record
On Dec. 13, with three weeks left in the regular season, Accuscore predicted the Bears would host the New Orleans Saints in the NFC Championship Game. It wasn't exactly going out on a limb, considering both teams were atop the NFC standings for much of the season, but Accuscore was on a limb last week. ESPN.com listed predictions by eight of its human experts and Accuscore. Only Accuscore predicted a Bears victory.
''We had predicted the Bears to by at least 10 points, assuming bad weather, and that was back on Dec. 13,'' McCaleb said. ''If you look at the analysis, we about nailed it dead on.''
The Bears won 39-14 in a light snow.
Accuscore analyzes other sports with even more success.
''On our site, we were 75.6 percent for NCAA football and 62 percent for the NFL on ESPN.com,'' McCaleb said.
Accuscore powered the NFL Harmon Forecast for CBS last season, and Harmon's number of victories went from 126 in 2004 to 146 in 2005. And that was against Vegas' spread.
Aside from ESPN and CBS, Accuscore is used by Yahoo!, Cingular, Head2Head and Athlon/Grogans.
There's also discussion of using Accuscore as the basis of a television show matching up NFL teams next season.
How it works
Accuscore doesn't use the same type of formula utilized by popular video games.
''We don't input any stats into our engine,'' McCaleb said. ''I can't go into too much detail because of our intellectual property, but we actually play the game one play at a time.
''Stats are completely misleading. Weather, field position, score, time on the clock, coaching tendencies -- you name it, it's in there. This is why our simulation engine is so complex and takes days to run a full NFL season.''
It's a far cry from how the engine originally was conceived.
''In studying evolution, I worked on ... simulations where a population's segment of DNA was modeled one generation at a time,'' Oh said. ''Each generation things like mortality rates, birth rates, mutation rates and population movement rates, which were used to simulate how each generation 'lived.'
''To determine what these rates are, we reviewed extensive research by geneticists, mathematicians, archeologists and anthropologists. The evolutionary program would use the average rates and variability to simulate a single generation. It would then simulate the same sample for a predetermined number of generations and output how this population looks 'genetically.'''
Super Bowl XLI
According to Accuscore, the Bears have a 39 percent chance of success, and the score looks like it might be in the mid-20s.
''If we add up all the points the Bears scored in the simulations and divide by 10,000, you get 23.4,'' McCaleb said.
''For the winning percentage, we basically take all the games won by each team in the 10,000 simulations and turn that into a percentage.
''So we have the Colts at 60 percent and the Bears at 39 percent. We don't do overtime, so 1 percent ended in a tie.''
One variable that puts the percentages nearly even is the Bears' special teams and returner Devin Hester.
''I don't think the data says specifically that Hester needs a return touchdown as much as it says Hester and special-teams performance is a huge boost to the Bears,'' McCaleb said.
''There were some simulations we ran where Hester did not score a TD, but the Bears' chances are still much improved due to better field position.
''So you could interpret that by saying that if the Bears' return teams perform as well as they are capable, Chicago's odds of winning improve almost a full 10 percent -- making this a coin-toss game. Factor in one or more of the other data points, and the Bears start to take the advantage.''
Despite Vegas' spread, Accuscore doesn't see this game as easy to predict as the NFC title game.
''This is an interesting matchup from the looks of our data, and it does not appear as cut-and-dried as the Bears-Saints game,'' McCaleb said.
And this time, that's good news for Bears fans.
SPECIAL IMPACT
Bears return man Devin Hester could be the decisive factor in Super Bowl XLI. Here's how Accuscore sees the game in general ...
Team Pct. chance of winning Predicted score
Colts 60.2 27.5
Bears 39.8 23.4
... and here's the forecast if the Bears return a kick for a touchdown.
Team Pct. chance of winning Predicted score
Colts 50.9 27.7
Bears 49.1 27.4
posted by phantom
Jan. 25 2007 8:29pm -
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NFL
Long Sheet
Sunday, February 4
Super Bowl XLI
INDIANAPOLIS (15 - 4) vs. CHICAGO (15 - 3) - 2/4/2007, 6:20 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
INDIANAPOLIS is 1-0 against the spread versus CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
INDIANAPOLIS is 1-0 straight up against CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
NFL
Short Sheet
Sunday, February 4th
Super Bowl XLI
Indianapolis vs. Chicago, 6:25 EST
Indianapolis:
13-3 Over away off 3+ ATS wins
40-21 Over away vs. winning teams
Chicago:
1-12 ATS off BB games scoring 25+ points
1-7 ATS off a turnover margin of +4 or better
posted by phantom
Jan. 26 2007 1:40pm -
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For the first time in 10 years, the home teams prevailed in both conference championship games to set the stage for a Feb. 4th meeting between the Bears and Colts in Miami.
Chicago removed Cinderella’s slipper from New Orleans to take the NFC crown, winning 39-14 at Soldier Field behind a defense that forced four turnovers and produced a game-changing safety in the third quarter. Running backs Thomas Jones and Cedric Benson combined for 183 yards and three touchdowns and much-maligned quarterback Rex Grossman recovered from a rather ugly beginning to pass for 105 yards and a score in the second half as the Bears won for the 15th time this season.
Meanwhile, Indianapolis got a big monkey off of its back by defeating archrival New England, 38-34, in a wild finish at the RCA Dome. The Colts overcame an 18-point deficit and won it with exactly one minute remaining on rookie running back Joseph Addai’s 3-yard touchdown run. Quarterback Peyton Manning, the only player to have 4,000 yards passing in six consecutive seasons and a two-time league MVP, threw for 349 yards and one touchdown with one interception to erase years of playoff frustration.
If defense wins championships, then the Bears have the edge. While Chicago ranked fifth in total defense and third in scoring defense (255 points allowed) and limited the Saints’ top-ranked offense to just a pair of touchdowns, Indianapolis gave up 173 yards rushing per game to rank at the bottom of the NFL and 360 points to rank 23rd. The Colts defense improved in the playoffs, holding Kansas City and Baltimore to a combined 14 points and stopping New England when it mattered most.
Manning, after a regular season that saw him get sacked a league-low 15 times and throw a career-low nine interceptions, has been dropped five times in the playoffs and picked off six times. It’s still unlikely the Bears will shut him down, unless the weather in South Florida contributes.
Since 1990, when the present NFL playoff system was adopted, a No. 1 seed in either conference has advanced to the Super Bowl 17 times. Chicago will try to become the ninth such club to win it but is a 7.5-point underdog. The point total opened at 49.
PREDICTION
No matter which way you slice it, it’s tough to make a case for the Bears. The AFC has captured five of the last six Super Bowls and seven of the last nine, and also dominated the NFC in head-to-head matchups in 2006. Manning’s time has come.
INDIANAPOLIS 24 CHICAGO 19
INDIANAPOLIS X-FACTORS:
- The AFC has won seven of the last nine Super Bowls, going 5-3-1 ATS.
- The Super Bowl Favorite is 20-17-3 ATS, but with just one cover in the last five.
CHICAGO X-FACTORS:
- Seven of the last 10 Super Bowls surpassed the “Overâ€
posted by phantom
Jan. 27 2007 4:34pm -
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Lem Banker's Super Bowl Prop Picks
FROM KLAS:
Super Bowl Prop Bets:
Chicago: Longest run from scrimmage
Indianapolis: Longest touchdown play
Chicago: Most first downs
Indianapolis: Longest pass completion
posted by phantom
Jan. 27 2007 4:35pm -
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Jeff Haney on this year's Super Bowl betting orgy, which includes an opening point spread of the 'key number' 7
When oddsmakers posted the point spread on Super Bowl XLI shortly after the Indianapolis Colts sealed their victory in the AFC title game Sunday night, it looked as if the betting line on the big game would settle on a nice round football number.
Seven points.
A couple of Las Vegas sports books opened the Colts a slightly shorter favorite against the Chicago Bears, at 6 or 6 1/2. But after the first round of bets, 7 appeared to be the number.
It's a good football point spread. "A touchdown," in shorthand, 7 is easy for recreational gamblers to grasp. It rolls off the tongue, as opposed to something like, "3 1/2, minus-120-slash-even money."
In retrospect, however, it might not have been the best number.
The point spread has leaked to 6 1/2 points at several major Las Vegas casinos this week in response to wagers backing the Bears as an underdog. The line was 6 1/2 by midweek at all Station Casinos properties, all Coast Casinos properties and the Palms, for example.
Other books, such as Leroy's and Caesars Palace and its related properties, had Chicago at plus-7, minus-120, meaning Bears bettors were required to risk $1.20 - rather than the traditional $1.10 - for each $1 they were trying to win. (Colts bettors could lay 7 points at even money.)
The move off the point spread of 7 was significant because 7 is a so-called "key number" in NFL betting. The differential in the final score is more likely to land precisely on 7 points than any other number except 3. By comparison, a move in the point spread involving "dead numbers" - say, from 5 1/2 to 5 points - carries much less weight.
"That tells me that maybe the right (point spread) number was closer to 4 1/2, not 7," said Rich Baccellieri, sports book director at the Palms.
Asked whether professional sports bettors or recreational gamblers have more influence on the direction of the Super Bowl betting line, Baccellieri said he believes a dichotomy exists. The pros, sometimes called "wise guys" in gambling parlance, hold more sway than "the public" in the early betting period, the few days after the line is posted. As it gets closer to the week of the game, money from recreational bettors - who make smaller bets, but a lot more of them - starts to pack a punch.
"The pros can take their shots early," Baccellieri said Thursday. "From here on out, it's in the hands of the public."
With a Super Bowl betting handle projected to approach or exceed last year's record $94.5 million in Nevada, bookmakers could find themselves rooting against any result in which the Colts win by exactly 7 points. If that happens, casinos would have to refund a big chunk of the handle to bettors.
The Super Bowl's final score has not landed right on the point spread since Super Bowl XXXIV on Jan. 30, 2000, when the St. Louis Rams beat the Tennessee Titans 23-16 as a 7-point favorite (see accompanying chart).
Propositions
Las Vegas Hilton oddsmakers maintained their reputation as kings of the Super Bowl proposition wagers this week, releasing their annual book-length selection of props - offbeat, unusual wagers - on the big game.
They included plenty of their signature "cross-sport" props, a kind of sports betting brain teaser popular among gamblers. The performances on Super Bowl Sunday of NBA stars such as Jason Kidd and Vince Carter, college basketball players such as Dionte Christmas of Temple, golfers such as Tiger Woods and Vijay Singh, even Manchester United of the English Premier League, among many others, are tied to the Super Bowl in betting propositions.
Bettors can have fun with cross-sport props while still analyzing them rationally. For example, one pits Sidney Crosby's shots on goal for the Pittsburgh Penguins against the total number of interceptions in the Super Bowl. The line is the number of interceptions plus 1 1/2 against Crosby's shots, minus-110 either way.
I like the interceptions on that prop. Here's why: At the Palms, the over/under on total interceptions is 2 1/2, under minus-150, which tells me the "correct" number of interceptions is about 2.3. Crosby averages about 2.8 shots, and has exceeded three shots only three times in his past 18 games (finishing with four each time). The Montreal Canadiens, the Penguins' opponent, are better than average defensively.
Even if I err on the side of caution and project two interceptions and three shots, interceptions plus 1 1/2 figures to win about 60 percent of the time, according to a mathematical analysis using the Poisson distribution, as detailed in Stanford Wong's book "Sharp Sports Betting."
A complete listing of props is available at the Hilton sports book.
posted by phantom
Jan. 27 2007 4:35pm -
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Larry Ness
Sun, 02/04/07 - 6:30 PM| NFL Side
IND -7.0 (-110) vs 102 CHI
Analysis: Paraphrasing the Monkees, "I'm a Believer!" Manning and Dungy will get the "monkey off their collective backs" as the Colts will beat the Bears convincingly. Indy's defense is a brand new unit. It dominated both KC and Balt and then after allowing two long TD drives to the Pats in the AFC title game, shut them down. NE's last four scores, (two TDs and two FGs) were the result of a interception TD plus three scores set up by kick returns. In both of the last two drives, Indy held NE to FGs instead of TDs (allowing Indy to win), as the Pats all but abandoned the run! As for Indy's offense, a question mark after the first two playoff games, Peyton and Co. put those critics to rest with a 32-point second-half vs a New England defense that had set a franchise record for fewest points allowed in a season! The Bears made all the big plays down the stretch vs the Saints, turning a close game into a blowout with 21 4th-quarter points! However, these Colts are hardly the inexperienced Saints, playing in that franchise's first-ever conference championship game. The Bears D forced four turnovers (had 44 during the year) and it is always a threat but as I've pointed out many times recently, Chicago's D has not been the same since the losses of DB Brown and DT Harris. As for Grossman, I think he'll be overmatched. The Bears will try to be conservative and run and that hasn't worked against the Colts in the playoffs. When forced to make plays, I expect Grossman to implode. 23* on the Ind Colts.
posted by phantom
Jan. 28 2007 3:01pm -
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Super Bowl Intangibles Part I: Turnovers
Matt Fargo
Super Bowl Intangibles Part I: Turnovers
I touched on the quarterbacks yesterday and how the mismatch heavily favors the Colts but that isn’t all that needs to be looked at when trying to pick the winner of Super Bowl XLI. The signal caller is the most important player on the field but there are other intangibles to be considered. You’re going to get stuffed with media stories throughout the next two weeks to the point of regurgitation and while some of these topics might be covered, they most likely won’t since they don’t have that star appeal. Today:
Turnovers
Calling turnovers is next to impossible but with a ball-hawking defense like the Bears, it can become more predictable. Chicago was 1st in the NFL in takeaways during the regular season with 44 but it slid off toward the end of the season. The defense forced 3.3 turnovers per game through the first 12 games but that averaged slipped to 1.3 during the last four games. In a nail-biter against Seattle, the defense forced only one turnover while the rout over New Orleans saw four so it’s obvious how those affect the outcome.
Saying the Bears are going to win the turnover battle is not a very bold prediction but against the Colts, it’s not as cut and dry. Indianapolis was 4th best during the regular season at holding onto the ball as it gave it up only 19 times including a 2nd best nine interceptions. However, the postseason has seen a reversal of this. The Colts have turned it over six times, all interceptions with two of those being returned for scores. Indianapolis has also fumbled the ball six times but fortunately has not lost any.
On the other side, the Colts were able to force only 26 turnovers during the regular season for an average of 1.6 per game. They have grabbed eight during the postseason for an average of 2.7 per game and it’s no coincidence that they are where they are partly due to this increase. None were more important than the Marlin Jackson interception of Tom Brady on the final drive of the AFC Championship, a drive that neither Peyton Manning nor any Colts fan could stomach to watch.
While the Bears led the league in takeaways, they were near the top at giving the ball away as well. Chicago was fifth in the league with 36 turnovers, the most of any playoff team. They were in the top 10 in both interceptions and fumbles and 25 of the 36 turnovers were directly by Rex Grossman – 20 interceptions and five fumbles. The Bears have turned it over only twice during the playoffs, both against the Seahawks, so while forcing turnovers is a factor, giving them away plays just as important a role.
Both teams are on the plus side in turnover margin during the postseason and if the quarterbacks keep up their respective paces, there should be a clear-cut turnover battle winner. Surprisingly, that would be the Bears as Grossman has been more efficient than Manning in taking care of the ball. It’s difficult to fathom Manning having another bad game. He has tossed six interceptions in three games after going four straight years of having 10 or fewer interceptions the entire regular season.
At the same time, it’s hard to fathom Grossman having another mistake-free game. This guy was incredible during the first part of the season then that game at Arizona occurred with that shoddy 10.7 quarterback rating. Grossman tossed 14 interceptions in a span of seven games before coming on strong once again in weeks 14 though 16. A horrendous game against Green Bay closed the year as did questions about his work ethic. He is the only quarterback to have seven ratings above 100 and five below 40.
Does this really give us much to go by? It’s hard to say. A determination could easily be made if we knew which Manning and which Grossman shows up but we don’t and that is what makes it both difficult and fun at the same time. The fumbles will likely be a wash as the weather played a huge factor in the three fumbles that New Orleans had on Sunday and it isn’t likely the Colts are going to duplicate that. To claim victory, the Bears need to win the turnover battle which at this point doesn’t seem likely.
posted by phantom
Jan. 29 2007 2:16pm -
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VEGAS EYES $100M ON BEARS-COLTS
By BRIAN COSTELLO
NY POST
January 28, 2007 -- Like most of America, Robert Walker stared at the TV in February 2002 and watched as Adam Vinatieri's 48-yard field goal won the Patriots Super Bowl XXXVI. Unlike most of America, Walker figures the kick saved his job.
Walker is the director of the race and sports book at MGM Mirage in Las Vegas. He sets the lines for 14 different properties in Vegas, and on this day he was sweating out the largest bet he'd ever taken on the big game.
Someone bet $4.6 million on the Rams to beat the Patriots on that day. When Vinatieri's kick cleared the crossbar, Walker may have been the happiest man in America.
"I've always had a soft spot for the Patriots and Adam Vinatieri since then," Walker said. "If he doesn't make that field goal, you might be talking to someone else right now."
Next Sunday is the biggest holiday of the year in Las Vegas. Last year, a record $94 million was bet legally on the Super Bowl. This year, Vegas hopes to reach $100 million. The men in charge of bringing in all that money spent last weekend trying to figure out the best point spread to make the most amount of money.
Set the number too high and the underdog takes in too much money. Set it too low and everyone jumps on the favorite.
For Walker and his brethren, these are the two biggest weeks of the year. From the regular betting line to prop bets, they have to make placing a bet on the big game as tempting as possible.
This year's matchup between the Colts and Bears has them thinking big bucks.
"I think it's a phenomenal matchup," said Chuck Esposito, the assistant VP of the race and sports book at Caesars Palace. "The Bears are one of the most popular teams with the public. The Colts have arguably the most popular player in Peyton Manning. You have the Colts offense vs. the Bears defense."
Each of the sports-book directors interviewed said they entered last weekend with an idea of what the line would be for each potential matchup. Walker even posted lines at the Mirage for each scenario to gauge the public's feelings. They all felt the Colts would be around 61/2- or 7-point favorites if they wound up matched with the Bears. When watching the games, they paid attention for any injuries or performances that might affect the way the public would bet.
John Avello, the director at race and sports operations at Wynn Las Vegas, thought the line would be Colts minus-61/2, but then decided on 7 after watching the Colts' performance in the second half against the Patriots.
"In the third and fourth quarter, all cylinders were firing," Avello said. "That was the last impression left in watchers' or bettors' minds. I'm thinking we have Peyton Manning, one of the best passers, against the Bears, who have a quarterback that people are unsure of. But the Bears do have a great following. Instead of 61/2, I'm going to use 7."
The line was posted immediately after the Colts-Patriots game ended last Sunday. Walker, who posted the Colts minus-61/2, saw the first seven or eight bets come in on the Colts and moved it to 7.
Most directors rely on staffs of handicappers to help them come up with the number. Once the line is posted, plenty of other people also offer up opinions.
"When I post that number, I get people running back telling me I made a mistake," Walker said. "If some think it's too high and some think it's too low, I know I have it right."
After the line and over/under are set, the sports book staffs try to finalize their prop bets, which have increased in popularity in recent years. Esposito said his staff has been working on them for the last six weeks. Caesars is credited with staring the prop bet when it posted odds on William "Refrigerator" Perry scoring a touchdown in Super Bowl XX.
"We'll have 200 to 250 different prop bets on the board," Esposito said. "You name it, we've got it on the board."
posted by phantom
Jan. 29 2007 2:18pm -
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Super Bowl XLI
Big Al McMordie
Al McMordie is the most honored technical handicapper in the country. By: Big Al McMordie Date: Jan 29, 2007
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So, do the Bears have a chance? Only two of the last nine NFC Champions won the Super Bowl, and oddsmakers see the Colts as a significant favorite. The key will be defense, with the Bears having the No. 5 overall defense. But this is no ordinary offense, as the Colts rank No. 2 in total offense and passing (27 points, 268 yards passing per game) behind QB Peyton Manning (31 TDs, 9 INTs), TE Dallas Clark and WRs Marvin Harrison and Reggie Wayne.
In five of the last six games the Bears defense has struggled, allowing 27, 31, 21, 26 and 24 points. The pass defense allowed 332, 300, 260 and 276 passing yards! Bears CB Nathan Vasher is outstanding, so he may be able to contain one of the Colts speed weapons, but the Colts have two aces at wide receiver and the best QB in the game.
Then there’s the question about competition. It’s no secret that the AFC has the better teams. Notice that the Colts beat the Jets just 10-0, smashed Buffalo 40-7, but also lost at home to the Dolphins 31-13 and at New England 17-13. That loss at the Patriots came only three weeks after these same Colts won 27-20 at New England with 301 passing yards.
The biggest mismatch is at quarterback, where nine-year Indy veteran Peyton Manning and his two MVPs has a huge edge over Chicago’s baby-faced Rex Grossman. It’s interesting that the lowest rating ever produced by a winning quarterback in the Super Bowl was a lowly 22.6 a year ago by the Steelers' Ben Roethlisberger. Big Ben was awful, completing 9 of 21 passes for 123 yards with no touchdowns and two interceptions in beating the Seahawks, 21-10.
The lowest passer rating before Roethlisberger was John Elway's 51.9 against Green Bay in Super Bowl XXXII. Elway managed just 123 passing yards. Yet, guess who won that game? That's right: Elway’s Broncos in a 31-24 victory. So, theoretically, Grossman could have a miserable game and Chicago still could win. After all, the Broncos were an 11-point dog in that game.
A couple of other points to keep in mind. There has never been a Super Bowl played in rainy, windy conditions that I can recall, yet the very-early forecast for this Super Bowl hints at a 30% chance of rain and some wind in Miami. That could change the dynamics of the game considerably, and certainly would influence the side and total. Check the weather forecasts every day from now until Super Sunday. Weather conditions could make this an interesting, and perhaps even unusual, Super Bowl.
Also, how the teams are constructed needs to be examined. The Colts, for instance, are built for their home field – which is indoors on artificial turf. The team has a great quarterback and outstanding speed at wideout, perfect for the fast carpet. The defense, too, is predicated on speed and the defensive front is fast but small, the smallest in the NFL. That’s why the Colts were so bad against the run this season (allowing a whopping 173 rush yards per game, 5.2 yards per carry). Both those stats were easily the worst in the NFL.
But this game won’t be on the carpet, as Miami’s stadium is natural grass. The Colts are 1-3 in their last four games on grass, and just 5-4 SU/4-5 ATS on the road this season. The Bears, with their balanced offense and physical defense, are more suited for natural grass, on which they play their home games. Chicago is an impressive 7-1 straight up, 5-3 against the spread on the road and 2-0 ATS as a dog.
Two years ago the Colts played at Chicago and won 41-10 as an 8-point favorite! Everyone is looking at the Grossman/Manning match-up as being key, but a more intriguing one is Chicago RBs Thomas Jones and Cedric Benson against the Colts run defense. The Bears ran the ball 46 times against the Saints in the NFC Championship game! If they can do something similar, Chicago has a chance to pull an upset with or without Grossman playing well. Enjoy the big game, and check those South Florida weather reports all week...Al McMordie.
posted by phantom
Jan. 30 2007 4:28pm -
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Super Bowl Intangibles Part III: Rushing Game
Matt Fargo
It’s pretty common knowledge in football that winning the rushing battle usually means winning the football game. That is the case throughout the regular season, the playoffs and ultimately, the Super Bowl. Obviously, picking which team is going to win the rushing battle is not the easiest of tasks since if it was, everyone would be likely winning money on sports’ most wagered-on game. Let’s do some breakdowns and see who has the best shot to win the line of scrimmage for Super Bowl XLI.
The Rushing Game
Let’s take a look at some history first. Winning the rushing game usually means winning the Super Bowl but what exactly is the likeliness of that? Of the first 40 Super Bowls, the winning team had more rushing yards in 33 of those games which is pretty significant. More importantly for us and for the purpose of this article, the team with the greater rushing yard total is 29-11 ATS (72.5 percent). So not only predicting the rushing winner gives us the outright winner but it likely gives us a spread cover as well.
The Super Bowl winner has averaged 151.7 ypg through the first 40 big games while the losing team has averaged just 87.5 ypg. It can be argued that the winning team is likely sitting on the lead and piling on meaningless rushing yards while the trailing team is forced to abandon the run. Sure that is the case some of the time however looking at ypc averages strengthens the rushing theory. The winners have averaged over four ypc while the losing team has averaged 3.6 ypc.
The Super Bowl winner has been held to fewer than 100 yards only five times in the history of the big game, most recently Super Bowl XXXIV winner St. Louis. Seven times has seen the winner gain over 200 yards and its no surprise that the average margin of victory in those games was 20.3 ppg however this has not taken place since Super Bowl XXII in 1988. The most yards ever gained by a Super Bowl loser were 166 yards by Buffalo in Super Bowl XXV against the Giants.
Now let’s see if we can put history on our side and determine who will win the rushing game between the Colts and Bears. Coming into this matchup, Chicago is dubbed the better rushing team but that isn’t because of the offensive side of things. The Bears averaged 119.9 ypg during the regular season which was 15th in the league. Indianapolis was not far behind, averaging 110.1 ypg, which was tied for 18th. The Colts actually averaged more ypc than Chicago, 4.0 ypc to 3.8 ypc.
During the postseason, both teams have stepped things up. Chicago leads all playoff teams in rushing, averaging 158 ypg on 4.0 ypc in its two games while the Colts are averaging 137.7 ypg on 3.9 ypc in their three games. The Bears torched the weak New Orleans rushing defense for 196 yards in the NFC Championship after putting up 120 yards against the Seahawks in their divisional round game. The Colts have put up 188, 100 and 125 yards in their three postseason games.
Defensively, both teams have been successful in the postseason which is incredibly surprising for the Colts. Indianapolis was dead last in the NFL in rushing defense during the regular season, allowing a league high 173 ypg on 5.3 ypc which was also the most in the league. However, they have allowed only 220 yards rushing in three postseason games for an average of 73.3 ypg on 3.6 ypc. So the question lies which set up numbers do we look at to see which Colts defense is going to show up.
They had success against the Patriots, allowing just 93 yards but after running all over Indianapolis in the first half, New England abandoned the run as it rushed the ball only five times in the entire second half. If the Patriots had been more balanced, the outcome could have been different. Many are attributing the return of safety Bob Sanders to the success of the Colts stopping the run as he played only four regular season games. However, the defense allowed an average of 165.3 ypg in those four games he played.
Chicago allowed 127 yards on the ground against Seattle but held the Saints to just 56 yards as New Orleans ran the ball only 12 times. The Bears were dominant during the regular season, allowing only 99.4 ypg on 4.0 ypc, 6th and 12th respectively. Defensive tackle Tommie Harris missed the last four regular season games with a hamstring injury and all the talk is how his absence is taking its toll on the rushing defense. In those six games missed, the defense allowed only 84.2 ypg on 3.7 ypc so it hasn’t missed a beat.
These are some very interesting numbers to try to dissect. While Chicago had the rushing advantage during the regular season, it looks as though it has shifted during the playoffs to the Colts side. That is something that can be argued back and forth but in my opinion, one team does have the advantage heading into Super Bowl XVI which is likely going to be the difference in the outcome of the game. I am going to keep that opinion under wraps as it will be part of the foundation of the winning prediction.
posted by phantom
Jan. 31 2007 1:44pm -
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Super Bowl Betting: Seven Is Heaven for Books
BoDog Sportsbook
History tells bettors to take the Bears to cover, but not to win. Ever get the feeling oddsmakers just mail it in come Super Bowl time? The latest championship line - the Indianapolis Colts (-7) over the Chicago Bears - is the third 7-point spread in four years.
And it's not just a 21st-century thing, either.
Since 1967, the year of the first "big game", there have been seven touchdown-sized spreads, making it the most popular line of all. (Five times the spread's been a field goal.)
Of course, a 7-point line is hardly a rarity when it comes to football betting. In the NFL, seven is the second-most common margin of victory after three. During the 2006 regular season, 21 of the 256 games (8.2 percent) were decided by John Elway's number.
What's interesting for bettors to note, however, is how good Super Bowl 7-pointers have been for the books, with underdogs covering five and losing just one. (There was one push.)
Capitalizing on the public's propensity to back favorites, bet-takers have cleaned up when David ends up giving Goliath a fight.
Betting Results of Super Bowls With 7-point Spreads
Super Bowl Winner Loser ATS
XXXIX New England (-7) 24 Philadelphia 21 Dog
XXXVIII New England (-7) 32 Carolina 29 Dog
XXXIV St. Louis (-7) 23 Tennessee 16 Push
XXVI Washington (-7) 37 Buffalo 24 Fav
XXV N.Y. Giants (+7) 20 Buffalo 19 Dog
XXIII San Francisco (-7) 20 Cincinnati 16 Dog
X Pittsburgh (-7) 21 Dallas 17 Dog
With more squares than a Picasso getting down on the Super Bowl versus a regular-season game, it's not surprising then that the Colts are being given plenty to overcome (from a point-spread perspective, at least) for their game on Feb. 4.
Looking back on previous championship games with 7-point lines, there are, indeed, parallels to be drawn with the 41st edition.
The respect Tom Brady received in Super Bowl XXXIX made sportsbooks rich.
Most recently, in Super Bowl XXXIX, it was the New England Patriots who were getting all the attention. With the word "dynasty" being bandied about in anticipation of Tom Brady and Co.'s third title in four years, no one was giving the Philadelphia Eagles much of a chance.
At the time, Brady was 8-0 in the playoffs, and even though Philadelphia's Donovan McNabb had superior stats in the 2004 regular season, most bettors felt the quarterbacking matchup favored New England. But it was McNabb who led the Eagles to the cover with a 30-yard TD pass to Greg Lewis with 1:48 remaining, making the final score 24-21. On the day, McNabb threw for 357 yards and three touchdowns. (No need to mention the interceptions and hyperventilating.)
Super Bowl Betting History
According to the Nevada Gaming Control Board, when the Patriots beat the Eagles in Super Bowl XXXIX, Nevada sportsbooks won $15,430,138 on $90,759,236 in wagers. The win and win percentage (17.0) remain records.
As was the case two years ago, there is a clear quarterbacking favorite when the Colts face the Bears. His name is Peyton Manning, the man who's now beaten the aforementioned Brady in three straight meetings. The question is, does Manning deserve the respect once reserved only for Brady?
While Manning's opposite number, Chicago's Rex Grossman, had nowhere near the numbers of the Indy quarterback in the regular season, it's interesting to note that the Bears' QB has better numbers in the postseason. Grossman has thrown just one interception to Manning's five. He also boasts a superior passer rating: 75.4 to 66.8. Both have thrown just two TD passes, but Manning has played one more game.
Peyton Manning is the best quarterback in the Super Bowl, but he hasn't proven it.
Not that any coach in his right mind would choose Grossman over Manning to lead his team, but what is it, exactly, that makes the former so worrying for bettors? The answer is turnovers. Grossman threw 20 interceptions in the regular season, third worst in the league behind Ben Roethlisberger (23) and Jon Kitna (22).
As far as relevant precedents are concerned, turnovers were the story of Super Bowl XXVI, the only title game in which a 7-point underdog failed to push or cover. In the 37-24 loss to Washington, Buffalo's Jim Kelly threw four interceptions and lost a fumble.
Back to the present, the problem with betting against Grossman because of turnovers alone is that his teammates more than make up for his mistakes. In the playoffs, the Bears have taken the ball away three more times than they've given it up. During the regular season, they were plus-8 in turnover margin. The Colts are plus-2 in the playoffs and were plus-7 in the regular season.
Super Bowl Betting Opinions
"I think one of the key factors John Q. Public will look at is, how can you take the Bears against Manning? Grossman does not look like a quarterback who can lead a team to a Super Bowl."
- Vegas Sports Authority handicapper Jim Kruger, to the Las Vegas Review-Journal (Jan. 22, 2007)
To reiterate, sportsbooks have been fortunate that just one 7-point Super Bowl favorite has covered. But they've also been lucky that only one 7-point underdog has won outright; four of those underdogs covered the spread while failing to win the game.
See, while history suggests the majority of this year's Super Bowl wagers will be placed on the Colts (-7), it also tells us there will be healthy action on the Bears with the moneyline. Fans of the underdog don't want to see their team merely cover the spread; they want a win, and they bet accordingly.
If the Bears beat the Colts, the moneyline will pay in the neighborhood of +190, which means it takes about half as much Chicago action to inflict the same amount of damage on a sportsbook as an Indy cover.
But doesn't the evidence suggest that 7-point Super Bowl dogs have little shot of winning? Not necessarily. The New York Giants in 1991 might be the only 7-point underdog to have won the Super Bowl, but plenty of others had their chances.
In Super Bowl X, Pittsburgh safety Glen Edwards put an end to a late Dallas rally with an end-zone interception of Roger Staubach as time expired. The Steelers won, 21-17.
In Super Bowl XXIII, it took a 92-yard drive with 3:10 left on the clock for Joe Montana and the San Francisco 49ers to beat the Cincinnati Bengals, 20-16.
In Super Bowl XXXIV, Tennessee Titans wide receiver Kevin Dyson fell one-yard short of tying the game on the final play of the game. The St. Louis Rams won 23-16, pushing the spread.
Finally, in Super Bowl XXXVIII, the Patriots needed a 41-yard Adam Vinatieri field goal with four seconds left to beat the Carolina Panthers, 32-29.
History tells us the Bears are a good bet to cover, or even win, on Feb. 4. Then again, the Super Bowl is supposed to be the place where history gets written. Not re-written.
Super Bowl XLI Schedule
Who: Indianapolis Colts vs. Chicago Bears
Where: Dolphin Stadium, Miami.
When: Feb. 4, 6:25 p.m. ET (CBS)
Point spread: Colts -7.
Total: 49.5
National Anthem Performer: Billy Joel.
Halftime Performer: Prince.
posted by phantom
Jan. 31 2007 1:45pm -
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NEWSLETTER PICKS:
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posted by phantom
Jan. 31 2007 2:01pm -
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Brandon Lang's Super Bowl 41 Pick is.............
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He just released it on the Sports Junkies on WJFK 106.7 here locally in DC.
He is on the Colts 6.5, -7 (NOT -7.5, he said to buy off of 7.5)
He said it will be a dd win by the Colts over an overrated Bears team
posted by phantom
Jan. 31 2007 2:02pm -
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Super Bowl XLI Buzz - Sunday, February 4th, 2007
NFL -
Indianapolis Colts vs. Chicago Bears
Super Bowl XLI (CBS | 6:30 PM ET)
The Bears are feeding off their role as underdogs in the Super Bowl, and they have no issues proving they belong here and can win the biggest game of the year. "Anytime you're in an underdog role, you're that much more intense and focused and out for respect," said Chicago QB Rex Grossman, who may go down as the most scrutinized player in Super Bowl history due to his erratic play. AFC teams may have dominated their NFC counterparts during the regular season, but the Bears went 2-2, including a tough 17-13 loss at New England. EDGE: BEARS
While Grossman is at an obvious disadvantage against Indy counterpart Peyton Manning, insiders believe the key to this game will simply be turnovers. In Chicago's three losses this season, Grossman turned the ball over 12 times, with three interceptions and one fumble in each of those games. If he limits his turnovers and the Bears play up to their potential on defense and special teams, a straight-up win is not only possible, it's likely. EDGE: BEARS IF GOOD REX PLAYS, COLTS IF BAD REX PLAYS
Teams without a scoring defense ranked in the Top 8 at the end of the regular season have never won the Super Bowl. Indy ranked 23rd - allowing 22.5 points per game - while Chicago finished third. Even though Indy safety Bob Sanders has improved the team's run defense dramatically when he has played, the team does not play an opportunistic style and force many turnovers, creating just 32 compared to 47 for the Bears. BIG EDGE: BEARS
Some experts - along with the betting public - feel Manning finally has the monkey off his back of "failing to win the big game" and will thrive on the big stage in his first opportunity to win the Super Bowl. If anybody is due to win a championship, it's him. He never beat archrival Florida in college and has been linked to former Miami QB Dan Marino because of his statistical dominance yet lack of a title. Ironically, Manning may have more pressure on him to win this game than Grossman, but the public doesn't seem too worried. EDGE: COLTS
No touchdowns have been scored in the first quarter of the last five Super Bowls, and just 22 points total have been scored in the last seven combined. Nerves have definitely played a huge role early on as the two teams feel each other out offensively and defensively. BIG EDGE: UNDER
Chicago was a much better road team during the regular season, going 7-1 SU away from Soldier Field. Indy was 4-4, snapping a four-game road skid with an impressive 15-6 victory at Baltimore in the divisional round of the playoffs. The grass surface in Miami also favors the Bears because the Colts offense is much more explosive on the fast track of turf. EDGE: BEARS
The Colts crushed the Bears 41-10 at Soldier Field during the 2004 regular season, the last meeting between the teams. However, Chicago LB Brian Urlacher missed that game with a leg injury and former Indy RB Edgerrin James ran for 204 yards. Urlacher is extra motivated to go up against Manning in this one after sitting out the last game. "They beat us so bad, I'm not sure I would have made a huge difference," Urlacher said. "(Manning is) a great challenge for our defense and our team, on his way to being, numbers-wise at least, the best quarterback in the history of the NFL. That (loss) wasn't very fun for me. I went down to the stadium before the game and then went back to my house to watch it. It wasn't my best day." EDGE: BEARS
The team that has the most rushing attempts in the Super Bowl has won 38 of the 40 games. The Bears had 46 rushing attempts compared to just 12 for the Saints in the NFC Championship. Indy had a 30-24 edge in attempts against the Patriots in the AFC Championship and also had advantages against the Chiefs and Ravens earlier in the playoffs. EDGE: WHOEVER RUSHES THE BALL MORE
Both teams play a similar Cover Two defensive scheme taught by Indy head coach Tony Dungy to Chicago's Lovie Smith in their days with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Some experts believe Manning will be able to pick apart the Bears because he goes up against the same type of defense everyday in practice. However, New Orleans QB Drew Brees said Monday on NFL Radio that Chicago played man-to-man 80-90 percent of the time against the Saints, who led the league in total offense this season. This could be a huge factor since the Patriots play man-to-man and have been very effective against the Colts over the years. EDGE: BEARS
posted by phantom
Jan. 31 2007 2:22pm -
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Key Player Injuries
INDIANAPOLIS
QB Peyton Manning (Thumb) is probable. - 1/22
TE Ben Utecht (Knee) is "?". - 1/22
CB Nick Harper (Ankle) left last game, "?". - 1/22
WR Ricky Proehl (Hamstring) is "?". - 1/21
WR Brandon Stokley (Achilles) IR - 12/11
S Michael Doss (Knee) IR - 10/23
DT Corey Simon (Illness) IR. - 10/6
FB James Mungro (Knee) IR. - 8/21
CHICAGO
WR Mark Bradley (Ankle) is "?". - 1/21
DT Tommie Harris (Knee) IR - 12/12
DB Mike Brown (Foot) IR - 10/18
LB Jamar Williams (Shoulder) IR - 9/27
posted by phantom
Jan. 31 2007 2:24pm -
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As indicated by the movement of the line, the betting public is favoring CHICAGO in this game
The betting public is correct when moving the money line in INDIANAPOLIS games 47.4% of the time since 1992. (93-103)
The betting public is correct when moving the money line in INDIANAPOLIS games 54.8% of the time over the past 3 seasons. (23-19)
The betting public is correct when moving the money line in CHICAGO games 51.2% of the time since 1992. (88-84)
The betting public is correct when moving the money line in CHICAGO games 50% of the time over the past 3 seasons. (19-19)
No Edge.
As indicated by the movement of the total, the betting public is favoring the UNDER in this game
The betting public is correct when moving the total in INDIANAPOLIS games 47.2% of the time since 1992. (93-104)
The betting public is correct when moving the total in INDIANAPOLIS games 41.7% of the time over the past 3 seasons. (20-28)
The betting public is correct when moving the total in CHICAGO games 46.3% of the time since 1992. (87-101)
The betting public is correct when moving the total in CHICAGO games 52.4% of the time over the past 3 seasons. (22-20)
posted by phantom
Jan. 31 2007 2:25pm -
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Preview: Super Bowl XLI Preview - Indianapolis (15-4) vs. Chicago (15-3)
(Sports Network) - After roughly four hours of play on Sunday night at Dolphin Stadium, one of two midwestern cities, separated by less than 200 miles of Interstate 65, will be rejoicing in a Super Bowl win.
The Indianapolis Colts and Chicago Bears are the combatants in Super Bowl XLI, and both teams have suffered through considerable enough periods without success that a win on Sunday night will rank as an especially celebratory moment.
The Colts will be making their first Super Bowl appearance of a 23-season residency in Indianapolis, having previously achieved little in the way of postseason success after relocating from Baltimore following the 1983 campaign. The lone Super Bowl title for the franchise came for the then- Baltimore Colts in Super Bowl V, a 16-13 miscue-laden triumph over the Dallas Cowboys.
The Bears will also be looking to secure their second Super Bowl win in franchise history. The 1985 edition of the "Monsters of the Midway" followed a 15-1 regular season with a three-game romp through the playoffs that culminated in a 46-10 trouncing of the New England Patriots. But Chicago failed to make it back to the game's ultimate stage for the 20 seasons that followed that victory, and entered the 2006 postseason having won just one playoff contest in the previous 15 seasons.
Both the Colts and Bears overcame significant obstacles to earn their Super Sunday engagement.
After starting the year 9-0, Indianapolis struggled to a 3-4 mark down the stretch, with the NFL's lowest-ranked rushing defense helping to lower the Colts' stock entering the postseason. But Tony Dungy's third-seeded team tightened its screws defensively in consecutive victories over the Chiefs (23-8) and Ravens (15-6), then out-gunned the Patriots (38-34) in a memorable come-from-behind victory in the AFC Championship.
Despite finishing the regular season with a 13-3 mark and earning the NFC's top seed by a wide margin, Chicago's playoff staying power was also called into question as the postseason commenced. Season-ending injuries to defensive playmakers like tackle Tommie Harris (hamstring) and safety Mike Brown (foot) had weakened a formerly-stifling defense, and the erratic play of quarterback Rex Grossman garnered major headlines in the season's second half as well. But both sides of the football contributed to the Bears' postseason victories over the Seahawks (27-24 in overtime) and Saints (39-14), setting the 87-year-old franchise up for a shot at just its third NFL title since 1946.
Sunday's historic matchup pits Dungy against former pupil and Bears head coach Lovie Smith, with the duo ranking as the first two African-American head coaches to reach the Super Bowl in NFL history.
Also notable is the first Super Bowl appearance of Indianapolis quarterback and perennial Pro Bowler Peyton Manning, who is on pace to own several of the NFL's most revered career passing records but has never won a title at either the collegiate or professional level.
SERIES HISTORY
The Colts hold a 22-17 lead in their all-time series with the Bears, including a 41-10 rout at Soldier Field when the teams last met, in Week 11 of the 2004 season. Prior to that victory, Indy had never defeated Chicago since the former franchise left Baltimore following the 1983 season. The Bears had won the previous four head-to-head matchups, defeating Indy at Soldier Field in 1985 and 2000, and in the RCA Dome in 1988 and 1991.
The franchises will be squaring off in the postseason for the first time.
Dungy is 8-5 in his career against the Bears, including 7-5 while with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers from 1996 through 2001. Chicago's Smith, who served as linebackers coach on Dungy's staff with the Bucs from 1996 through 2000, is 0-1 against both his former mentor and Indianapolis.
COLTS OFFENSE VS. BEARS DEFENSE
Wouldn't it be humorous if Peyton Manning finally wins the big one in what, so far, has been a horrible postseason, statistically speaking? Through three playoff games so far, Manning (4,397 yards, 31 TD, 9 INT) has been intercepted six times to just two TD passes. He came into this postseason with nine career playoff appearances and compiled 15 touchdowns to eight picks in that span. Manning, though, silenced his critics -- for a week anyway -- who said he couldn't win the big postseason games when he guided the Colts to an 18-point comeback over the Patriots to reach the Super Bowl, the largest comeback in championship game history. Against New England, he threw for 349 yards with a touchdown and interception. His three victories this year have doubled his playoff win total and moved his mark to 6-6.
A common theme between the two Super Bowl clubs this year is the usage of a 1-2 punch at running back. The Colts will counter Chicago's duo of Thomas Jones and Cedric Benson with the less sexy names of Dominic Rhodes and Joseph Addai. Addai carried the load in the Colts' playoff-opening win over the Chiefs with 122 yards and a score, but has managed just 95 yards and a touchdown in the last two games. Rhodes, meanwhile, has carried the ball about 14 times a game so far this postseason and is averaging just over 64 yards per game. Rhodes has also been held out of the end zone so far in the postseason. Both Addai and Rhodes are also contributing little out of the backfield in the passing game.
It's been all Marvin Harrison and Reggie Wayne for the Colts this season, except in the playoffs. Harrison (95 receptions, 12 TD) and Wayne (86 receptions, 9 TD) both went over 1,300 yards receiving in the regular season, but have been limited to just one touchdown between the two of them so far in the postseason. However, Manning's struggles early in the playoffs as well as the emergence of tight end Dallas Clark as his favorite target thus far are the most likely factors in Harrison and Wayne's struggles. They'll be just fine for the Super Bowl.
Tight end Clark (30 receptions, 4 TD) has been big for the Colts so far this postseason. He twice has gone over 100 yards receiving and is exploiting the large field he is seeing as teams try to shutdown the Colts long game. His ability to get open has provided a safety net for Manning when Harrison and Wayne are covered down field. That being said, Clark has yet to find the end zone in the playoffs, meaning he is not producing as the field gets shorter. He did have a monster game against the Patriots, though, as he made six catches for a team-high 137 yards.
Even though the Super Bowl is played on Sunday, the Colts' offensive line is anchored by Jeff Saturday, who was selected to play in his first Pro Bowl this year. Saturday and company were a brick wall during the regular season, as they allowed just 15 sacks, tops in the league. The line has allowed five sacks so far this postseason, including three against the Patriots. Still, it will be a great matchup to watch, as the best on the offensive side go against the dangerous and talented Bears defense.
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The Bears have the luxury of possessing three very good pass-rushing linemen in Adewale Ogunleye (43 tackles, 6.5 sacks), Alex Brown (46 tackles, 7 sacks) and rookie sensation Mark Anderson (28 tackles), who led the team with 12 sacks in a situational role. Chicago compiled 40 sacks during the regular- season and was able to generate constant pressure on New Orleans quarterback Drew Brees in the NFC Championship. The trio will need to apply similar heat on Manning, who can tear apart any secondary when provided time, to keep the Colts at bay.
Part of the Bears' defensive downfall late in the season was attributed to the year-ending torn hamstring that dominating tackle Tommie Harris (28 tackles, 5 sacks) suffered in early December. Despite that obviously significant loss, Chicago remains in pretty good shape along the interior. Tank Johnson's (26 tackles, 3.5 sacks) off-field issues have been well-documented, but the troubled lineman has played well when he's been able to take the field. Ian Scott (22 tackles) is a steady and experienced run-stopper.
The strength of Chicago's defense lies in the linebacking corps, as Urlacher (141 tackles, 3 INT) and weakside starter Lance Briggs (130 tackles, 2 INT, 1 sack) are two of league's best at their positions. Blessed with the speed of a safety on a 255-pound frame, Urlacher can roam sideline-to-sideline and excels in coverage. He will likely spend a lot of time shadowing Clark. Briggs is also very good against the pass and will be responsible for keeping Manning's damage underneath to a minimum, since the Bears don't blitz that often. Hunter Hillenmeyer (48 tackles), the other member of the trio, is a tough and solid tackler on the strong side but is subbed out in nickel situations.
Nathan Vasher (45 tackles, 3 INT) made the Pro Bowl in 2005, but Charles Tillman (80 tackles, 5 INT) had a better year among the two Bears corners this season. Tillman, the more physical and experienced of the pair, will mostly be matched up on the savvy Harrison. Vasher wasn't quite the playmaker he developed into a year ago, when he led the NFC with eight interceptions, but is still a quality defender on the right side. Nickel back Ricky Manning Jr. (53 tackles, 2 sacks) has made an impact in his first season in Chicago, as the former Carolina Panther tied Tillman for the club lead with five picks.
The safety spot is probably Chicago's largest area of concern heading into Sunday's contest, and has been a sore spot ever since standout Mike Brown (23 tackles) suffered a season-ending foot injury in mid-October. The Bears haven't been as effective stopping the run without Brown in the lineup, and have struggled to find a suitable replacement at his strong safety spot. Todd Johnson (32 tackles) had first crack at the job but later gave way to Chris Harris (54 tackles, 2 INT), who lost his starting free safety job to rookie Danieal Manning (67 tackles, 2 INT) in Week 3. Manning is a terrific athlete, but has had bouts of inconsistency that show he's still an unfinished product.
BEARS OFFENSE VS. COLTS DEFENSE
There isn't a player on the Bears' roster under more scrutiny than Grossman (3193 passing yards, 23 TD, 20 INT), who posted eight passer ratings of better than 98.6 during the regular season, but also offered up a clip of 36.8 or worse on five occasions. Whether "Good Rex" or "Bad Rex" shows up will be a storyline worth watching. To his credit, Grossman has largely avoided the major mistake during the 2006 postseason, though he has thrown just two touchdown passes, and is completing just 50 percent of his throws (32-of-64). Backup Brian Griese (220 passing yards, 1 TD, 2 INT) was an inactive rookie on the Broncos' 1998 Super Bowl-winning team.
The Bears figure to offer the Colts equal doses of running backs Thomas Jones (1210 rushing yards, 6 TD, 36 receptions) and Cedric Benson (647 rushing yards, 6 TD), both of whom have had their moments in 2006. Jones is the more versatile of the two backs, and has four of Chicago's seven touchdowns in the 2006 postseason. Jones rushed 19 times for 123 yards and two scores against the Saints in the NFC Championship. Benson is the more powerful back, but has averaged just 2.9 yards per rush during the postseason. Third-string back Adrian Peterson (41 rushing yards, 2 TD, 6 receptions) is one of the team's most valued special-teamers, and fullback Jason McKie (25 receptions) has some pass-catching skills out of the backfield.
Muhsin Muhammad (60 receptions, 5 TD) remains the team's most valued possession receiver, though deep threats Bernard Berrian (51 receptions, 6 TD) and Rashied Davis (22 receptions, 2 TD) have grabbed more of the headlines during the postseason. Berrian has 10 catches for 190 yards and two touchdowns during the 2006 postseason, including a 105-yard effort against New Orleans in the Championship round. Davis, the former Arena League star, had four catches for 84 yards against Seattle in the Divisional Playoff, including a pivotal reception that set up Chicago's game-winning field goal. Muhammad, meanwhile, has just four catches for 58 yards in two '06 playoff games combined. Oft- injured fourth receiver Mark Bradley (14 receptions, 3 TD) suffered a sprained ankle against the Seahawks, and is considered questionable for the Super Bowl. If he can't go, ex-starter Justin Gage (4 receptions) will likely be active for a second straight game.
Each of the Bears' three tight ends - Desmond Clark (45 receptions, 6 TD), John Gilmore (6 receptions, 2 TD), and Gabe Reid (4 receptions) - has a catch in the 2006 postseason, though as a group, the trio has combined for just four receptions and 51 yards without a touchdown in those two games. The only true pass-catching threat among this corps is Clark, who was 10th among NFL tight ends in receiving yards and tied for fourth in touchdowns during the regular season.
The offensive line has been arguably the team's most reliable offensive sub- group, as left guard Ruben Brown, center Olin Kreutz, right guard Roberto Garza, and right tackle Fred Miller have all started each of the Bears' 18 games. Left tackle John Tait is the only player that has missed any time, having been absent for a couple of games in December with an ankle problem. John St. Clair filled in for Tait in both of those contests, and has appeared in all 18 games as a backup and special-teamer. The Chicago line did a credible job protecting the quarterback during the regular season, allowing just 25 sacks, but struggled at times in the area of run-blocking. The Bears averaged just 3.8 yards per carry in 2006, which ranked in the bottom half of the league.
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Indianapolis wants to get Chicago into obvious passing situations where it can unleash disruptive defensive ends Dwight Freeney (29 tackles, 5.5 sacks) and Robert Mathis (65 tackles, 9.5 sacks) on the erratic Grossman, who has proven to be vulnerable when facing consistent pressure. The Colts managed only 25 sacks during the regular season after amassing 46 in 2005, but that lower figure is partly due to their opponents' preference to attack them with the run. Don't let Freeney's rather pedestrian stats fool you, as he's still one of the game's premier pass rushers and can make a major impact if not contained.
Tackle Anthony McFarland (41 tackles, 2.5 sacks) has provided needed beef alongside the smallish Raheem Brock (47 tackles, 3 sacks), a converted end who's more effective pressuring the quarterback than plugging gaps. Depth along the interior is thin, however, as Corey Simon hasn't played all year because of a mysterious illness and Montae Reagor (10 tackles, 1 sack) has yet to return from a midseason car accident. Second-year pro Darrell Reid (26 tackles), a special-teams standout, is the top reserve.
Although the linebacking unit was disappointing as a whole for much of the regular season, 2005 Pro Bowler Cato June (142 tackles, 3 INT, 1 sack) put together another outstanding year on the weak side. A former college safety, June is a fast and active defender and an outstanding coverage linebacker who topped the Colts in tackles and tied for the team lead with three interceptions. Morris (55 tackles) has upgraded the strong side since displacing Gilbert Gardner (53 tackles) as the starter in December. In the middle, Gary Brackett (120 tackles) is a workmanlike player with a good nose for the ball.
The starting tandem of Nick Harper (75 tackles, 3 INT) and Jason David (55 tackles, 2 INT) are both under six feet tall, but both players compensate for their short stature with speed and excellent tackling ability. The duo, along with versatile and valuable nickel man Marlin Jackson (82 tackles, 1 INT), helped Indianapolis allow the second-fewest passing yards (159.3 ypg) in the league. Harper sprained his left ankle during the AFC Championship Game, however, leaving his status for Sunday in question. Jackson, who sealed the Colts' victory over New England in the title game with a last-second interception of Tom Brady, would take over one starting spot if Harper is unable to go.
The Colts have had to patch things together at the safety spots all season long. Not only has Sanders (27 tackles, 1 INT) missed considerable time, but regular strong safety Mike Doss (29 tackles, 2 sacks) suffered a season-ending ACL tear in Week 7. Rookie Antoine Bethea (90 tackles, 1 INT), a sixth-round pick out of Howard University, has been a pleasant surprise filling in for Doss and Jackson has seen a lot of time at both safety spots as well. Still, the x-factor remains Sanders, who raises the play of the entire defense when he's out on the field.
SPECIAL TEAMS
Colts kicker Adam Vinatieri's resume is beyond reproach. He's made 82 percent (37-of-45) of his field-goal attempts during the postseason and has 19 career game-winning kicks in the final minute of the fourth quarter or in overtime under his belt. The two-time Pro Bowler has also done a good job on kickoffs, as his 18 touchbacks during the regular-season were the second-most in the league. He does have the benefit of playing half his games in a domed stadium, though.
Indianapolis' high-powered offense doesn't provide many opportunities for Hunter Smith, as the Colts punted a league-low 47 times this season. The eight-year pro averaged a solid 44.4 yards per kick, a number that's also aided by the cozy conditions of the RCA Dome. In outdoor games this year, Smith's average is just 41.8 yards per boot. He also serves as Vinatieri's holder.
Terrence Wilkins has taken back three punts for touchdowns in six NFL seasons, including a key 82-yard score during Indianapolis' 21-14 victory over division-rival Jacksonville in Week 3. The 31-year-old returned from a two- year absence from the league to average a respectable 9.2 yards on 21 attempts. Wilkins also handled the majority of the kickoff return duties, and averaged 24.5 yards per runback during the regular season. He took 52 of the Colts' 58 kick returns. The backup wideout wasn't as effective in the three playoff games, however, averaging 19.9 yards on nine attempts.
Special teams defense was a sore spot for Indianapolis for much of this year. The Colts allowed opponents to average 13.1 yards per punt return, the second- worst mark in the NFL. That statistic doesn't bode well for a team that will have to face the electrifying Devin Hester on Super Bowl Sunday. Indy also gave up 23.6 yards per return on kickoffs, which ranked only 26th overall. The Colts' leading tackler on special teams was starting strongside linebacker Rob Morris, who racked up 21 stops. Reserve defensive tackle Darrell Reid (19 tackles) and veteran linebacker Rocky Boiman (17 tackles) were also active on returns.
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Bears kicker Robbie Gould (32-36 FG) is a perfect 5-for-5 on field goal kicks through two postseason games, and hit all three attempts against the Saints in the conference championship game. However, the undrafted free agent is in just his second year, and has kicked in only three playoff games in that span. Two of those have been this year. Needless to say, nerves could be a factor for the Penn State product. The Pro Bowl selection had 11 touchbacks on kickoffs this season.
Handling the punt duties for Chicago will be Brad Maynard. In his 11th season, the former third-round pick out of Ball State averaged 44.2 yards per kick and stuck 24 of his 77 punts inside the 20. Maynard averaged a healthy 47.4 yards per punt against the Saints, who featured the dangerous Reggie Bush.
Hester (13.0 avg.) returned all but three punts for the Bears this season, and totaled 609 yards. He took three of those 47 returns to the end zone, with his long going for 84 yards. Hester's defining moment came against Arizona, when he took a punt back 83 yards to the end zone late in the fourth to cap a 20- point comeback. The rookie began to see fewer opportunities toward the end of the season, and had just two attempts against the Saints, averaging 12 yards. Rashied Davis (23.5 average) returned 32 kickoffs for the Bears this past season, and finished with 753 yards. However, it was Hester (26.4 average) who served as the game-breaker, returning a pair of kicks for scores and posting 528 yards on 20 returns. It should be noted that both of Hester's TDs came in Week 14 against the Rams.
Another area the Bears excel at is their special teams defense. In regards to kickoffs, Bears opponents' average starting position was around the 25-yard line, which was second-best in the NFC. That fact wasn't lost on Pro Bowl voters, as Brendon Ayanbadeho (25 tackles) will go to Hawaii as the special teams selection.
OVERALL ANALYSIS
The Colts are a heavy favorite in this game due mainly to the fact that it is difficult to envision Peyton Manning losing to Rex Grossman. However, it should be noted that there was a time when it was considered unthinkable that Tom Brady could beat Kurt Warner, Jeff Hostetler could get the better of Jim Kelly, or Doug Williams could take down John Elway. All occurred, and each of the above results were determined by more than just one player or position. When comparing the entire rosters of the Colts and Bears, there are actually shades of difference in terms of talent level. Indianapolis has the more consistent and potent offense. Chicago boasts the tougher, more credible defense. In light of those circumstances, we'll allow special teams to break the tie. Most NFL coaches would take Hester and Gould over Terrence Wilkins and Vinatieri, though not by much. And "not by much" will be the margin by which Chicago prevails, in upset fashion.
Sports Network Predicted Outcome: Bears 23, Colts 20
posted by phantom
Jan. 31 2007 2:27pm -
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Super Bowl officials announced
Miami, FL (Sports Network) - Tony Corrente has been selected as the referee to head the seven-man crew that will officiate Super Bowl XLI on Sunday at Dolphin Stadium.
Corrente, in his 12th NFL season, will serve as a referee in the Super Bowl for the first time. He was the alternate referee in last year's Super Bowl in Detroit.
Joining Corrente for this year's big game will be umpire Carl Paganelli, head linesman George Hayward, line judge Ron Marinucci, field judge Jim Saracino, side judge John Parry and back judge Perry Paganelli.
Mark Burns will be the replay assistant while Jeff Triplette, Butch Hannah, Carl Johnson, Buddy Horton, and Rich Reels will serve as alternate officials.
Under the NFL officiating program's evaluation system, the highest-rated officials at each position with the appropriate experience earn the right to work the Super Bowl.
Super Bowl officials must have five years of NFL experience and previous playoff assignments.
posted by phantom
Jan. 31 2007 2:31pm -
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Vinatieri back on the big stage
(Sports Network) - Only one true placekicker is currently enshrined in the Pro Football Hall of Fame, but there's a good chance Adam Vinatieri will one day be joining Jan Stenerud in Canton.
The current Indianapolis Colt has deservedly earned the reputation as possibly the best clutch kicker the game has ever witnessed. That lofty status was primarily attained from Vinatieri's performances in the Super Bowl, where he delivered two of the most memorable last-second kicks in NFL history.
The legend of "Automatic Adam" began five years ago in the Louisiana Superdome. With his New England club deadlocked with the powerful St. Louis Rams in Super Bowl XXXVI, Vinatieri calmly drilled a 48-yard field goal on the game's final play to give the Patriots the first of their three world championships of this decade. His stature grew greater two years later, after he knocked home a 41-yarder with four seconds on the clock to lift New England to a 32-29 triumph over the Carolina Panthers in Super Bowl XXXVIII.
Indianapolis' promise-filled 2005 season ended with a memorable kick as well, only it was Mike Vanderjagt's wide-right miss on a 46-yard field-goal attempt in the final seconds of the Colts' loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers in the AFC Divisional Playoffs. That prompted Indy president Bill Polian to lure Vinatieri away from the Pats with a five-year contract during the offseason, landing what the organization hoped would be the final missing piece to a championship squad.
Vinatieri certainly hasn't disappointed with his new team. The 11-year-veteran made good on 25-of-28 field goals during the regular season, then added to his impeccable postseason credentials by connecting on all 11 of his field-goal tries during the playoffs. He was at his best in the Colts' divisional-round showdown at Baltimore, accounting for every point of Indianapolis' 15-6 victory on January 13. Vinatieri tied an NFL postseason record -- one he had already shared -- with five field goals, three of which came from beyond 40 yards.
The 34-year-old has now made 37 career field goals during the postseason, the most of any kicker in NFL history.
"I think you have to go out and perform every single time you step on the field," said Vinatieri. "I'm just very fortunate that I play on a team that can score a lot of points, and the guys that are on the field at the same time I am do a great job. You've got confidence in (your teammates), you know the ball's going to be there, then you just have to do your job."
Below is a capsule look at the special teams of the Indianapolis Colts:
Placekicker: Vinatieri's resume is beyond reproach. He's made 82 percent (37- of-45) of his field-goal attempts during the postseason and has 19 career game-winning kicks in the final minute of the fourth quarter or in overtime under his belt. The two-time Pro Bowler has also done a good job on kickoffs, as his 18 touchbacks during the regular-season were the second-most in the league. He does have the benefit of playing half his games in a domed stadium, though.
Punter: Indianapolis' high-powered offense doesn't provide many opportunities for Hunter Smith, as the Colts punted a league-low 47 times this season. The eight-year pro averaged a solid 44.4 yards per kick, a number that's also aided by the cozy conditions of the RCA Dome. In outdoor games this year, Smith's average is just 41.8 yards per boot. He also serves as Vinatieri's holder.
Long-snapper: The Colts are in good hands at this often-overlooked position, as Justin Snow has been the team's deep snapper since 2000. The reserve tight end also had three special teams tackles during the regular season.
Punt Returners: Terrence Wilkins has taken back three punts for touchdowns in six NFL seasons, including a key 82-yard score during Indianapolis' 21-14 victory over division-rival Jacksonville in Week 3. The 31-year-old returned from a two-year absence from the league to average a respectable 9.2 yards on 21 attempts.
Kickoff Returners: Wilkins also handled the majority of the duties here, and averaged 24.5 yards per runback during the regular season. He took 52 of the Colts' 58 kick returns. The backup wideout wasn't as effective in the three playoff games, however, averaging 19.9 yards on nine attempts.
Special Teams Defense: This area was a sore spot for Indianapolis for much of this year. The Colts allowed opponents to average 13.1 yards per punt return, the second-worst mark in the NFL. That statistic doesn't bode well for a team that will have to face the electrifying Devin Hester on Super Bowl Sunday. Indy also gave up 23.6 yards per return on kickoffs, which ranked only 26th overall. The Colts' leading tackler on special teams was starting strongside linebacker Rob Morris, who racked up 21 stops. Reserve defensive tackle Darrell Reid (19 tackles) and veteran linebacker Rocky Boiman (17 tackles) were also active on returns
posted by phantom
Jan. 31 2007 2:32pm -
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Dungy Facing Old Demons - and Some New Ones
(Sports Network) - For years, the knock on Tony Dungy was that he couldn't win the big one. As the 51-year-old head coach guides his Indianapolis Colts into Super Bowl XLI Sunday night, that storyline isn't quite dead - though it is on a respirator, and the prognosis is dire.
And while there are no real "Dungy haters" out there, as the quality and class of the man commands almost universal respect, there remain those who doubt Dungy's abilities to finish the job with a Super Bowl win.
The argument this time is an indirect play on that old tired complaint. Even though Dungy has already defied many skeptics and guided the Colts to their first Super Bowl appearance since 1970, there are concerns about how the legendarily even-tempered head coach will prepare his team.
Eyebrows were raised when Dungy announced that the club wouldn't be arriving in Miami until Monday night, a day later than the Bears and after the usual weekend-before estimated time of arrival for Super Bowl combatants. Despite having the entire preceding weekend free, Indianapolis' first practice in Miami won't commence until Wednesday, eliciting questions that include the words "rust" and "focus."
If Tom Coughlin or Bill Parcells was setting the schedule, the Colts' week-of- game approach wouldn't be anything close to a national issue. But this is Dungy, who won a Sports Illustrated player poll asking, "Which head coach is easiest on his players?" in landslide fashion earlier this season.
Dungy defended his preparation strategy when arriving in south Florida on Monday.
"I think we'll have plenty of time," said Dungy. "I didn't think was that late actually. I know there's been Super Bowls where we only had one weekend in between. When I was at Tampa, we played the championship game on Sunday.
"We had three really emotional games. Our bye was fairly early in the regular season, so our guys have had a lot of time where they haven't had a weekend off at all. I wanted them to be able to spend some time with their families before we came down here."
That some might question the tactics of a coach that has won 122 games in 11 NFL seasons, an average of roughly 11 per year, might seem justifiably preposterous to some. Dungy is the only coach in the NFL who has guided his team to a playoff berth in each of the past five years, going an impressive 60-20 (.750) in regular season games during his half-decade in Indianapolis.
Prior to arriving in Nap-Town, the former Steelers and 49ers defensive back had led the Buccaneers to three straight postseason appearances, meaning Dungy has been represented in every NFL playoff bracket since 1999. Only Hall of Famers Tom Landry (nine consecutive appearances from 1975-83) and Chuck Noll (eight straight from 1972-79) are in Dungy's class in terms of coaching consistency.
Still, the former Minnesota Golden Gopher has been a victim of his lofty success. Despite taking a franchise that had endured a 14-year postseason drought and guiding it to four playoff berths in six years, Dungy was fired in Tampa Bay for his team's inability to perform well once it became do-or-die time.
Dungy's 1999 Buccaneers lost what most still believe was a winnable NFC Championship game against the Rams (11-6), and were routed by a composite score of 52-12 by the Philadelphia Eagles in the next two Wild Card rounds, hastening his exit.
The "crunch time" failings followed Dungy to Indy, where his first playoff experience was a 41-0 loss at the Jets. The Colts would bow out in New England in the next two seasons, first in an AFC Championship (24-14), then in an AFC Divisional Playoff (20-3) that saw what had been a prolific Indianapolis offense hit a brick wall.
But the most significant indictment of the head coach came last season, when the Colts rolled through the regular season at 14-2 only to suffer a shocking home loss (21-18) to the eventual Super Bowl Champion Steelers in a Divisional Playoff. After that defeat, it was easy to argue that if Dungy couldn't win the ultimate prize with that confluence of talent, he simply couldn't win.
All of the past struggles made this year's Colts run all the more surprising. After sputtering to a 3-4 record in its final seven regular season games and featuring a run defense that was historically poor, third-seeded Indianapolis was in no way a popular pick to represent the AFC in Super Bowl XLI. But consecutive masterworks against the Chiefs (23-8), Ravens (15-6), and Patriots (38-34), games that were won on the strength of a revitalized defense and timely doses of offense, put the Colts in the Super Bowl for the first time since leaving Baltimore in the dead of a snowy night in March 1984.
Does the recent spike in playoff success mean we're seeing a new and improved Dungy?
Nope. The mild-mannered head man is the same as he ever was, which means not re-thinking the elements at play in his decade-plus of success, including what could be perceived as a lax approach to Super Bowl preparations.
For their part, Dungy's players feel that the kinder, gentler approach will translate to Super Sunday success.
"We definitely appreciated it," said Indianapolis safety Bob Sanders of the time off. "A lot of time you get coaches that get nerved up and maybe want to have a little more practice and things like that. But Coach Dungy is an excellent guy handling situations like this.
"He doesn't really change too much."
posted by phantom
Jan. 31 2007 2:33pm -
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Line of Scrimmage: Tale of the Super Bowl Tape
Philadelphia, PA (Sports Network) - The last time the Indianapolis Colts departed the state of Florida, they were licking their wounds from a 44-17 loss to the Jacksonville Jaguars. The Jags rolled up 275 rushing yards in that Dec. 10th contest, cementing Indianapolis' reputation as a comically poor run- stopping team, an M.O. that wouldn't even last a month thanks to our obsession with the most recent thing we've seen.
The last time the Chicago Bears saw the Indianapolis Colts, they were busy having their fur handed to them in a 41-10 loss at Soldier Field. That game took place on Nov. 21st, 2004, which might seem like a couple of ages ago until one notes that the names Peyton Manning, Marvin Harrison, Reggie Wayne, Dwight Freeney, Thomas Jones, Lance Briggs, and Nathan Vasher are all fairly conspicuous parts of that box score. Also, the two coaches in that game were the same somewhat reserved gentlemen you'll be seeing this Sunday.
Both of the above points, as well as dozens of others, are fair game in an argument for or against the Colts and Bears this Sunday in Miami. The great and terrible thing about the Super Bowl is that you can use any piece of analysis, no matter how trivial it might seem, to pronounce your winner. We won't know if any of the various musings have merit until the thing finally ends and someone is holding the Lombardi Trophy aloft.
But the worst thing you can do during the two weeks of bombastic overanalysis and unharnessed media frenzy that separate the championship games and the Super Bowl is to resign yourself to a "let's wait and see" approach. It is doubtful that the phrase "my take" is used any more during the course of a given year than in the fortnight amid which we currently find ourselves.
You gotta have a take, and we gotta have ours too. So...
Below we break down each area of the Indianapolis and Chicago lineups, gauging the advantage of all units and concluding with our overall analysis:
Quarterbacks: Many Super Bowl prognosticators, even those of the armchair variety, are making their pick based on this position alone. In one corner stands future Hall-of-Famer Peyton Manning (4397 passing yards, 31 TD, 9 INT), he of the 156 consecutive starts, seven seasons with 4,000 passing yards, and seven Pro Bowl selections. In the other stands 26-year-old Rex Grossman (3193 passing yards, 23 TD, 20 INT), who will be making his 26th NFL start and offered up a passer rating of 36.8 or worse five times in 2006. Grossman is more than capable of a strong performance (his rating was 98.6 or better eight times this season), while Manning has been prone to the big-game meltdown. But on paper, this is an indisputable mismatch.
Edge: Colts
Running Backs: Both teams feature a two-back approach, with the Colts using Joseph Addai (1081 rushing yards, 40 receptions, 8 TD) and Dominic Rhodes (641 rushing yards, 5 TD, 36 receptions) and the Bears trotting out Thomas Jones (1210 rushing yards, 6 TD, 36 receptions) and Cedric Benson (647 rushing yards, 6 TD). Addai and Rhodes have played well in the postseason, combining for 410 ground yards, while Jones has scored four touchdowns in two '06 playoff appearances. This matchup is a little too close to call.
Edge: Push
Wide Receivers: Another cut-and-dried situation. Indianapolis boasts future Hall of Fame occupant Marvin Harrison (95 receptions, 12 TD) and Reggie Wayne (86 receptions, 9 TD), his Pro Bowl accomplice. Chicago has some nice wideouts, including two-time Pro Bowler Muhsin Muhammad (60 receptions, 5 TD) and young upstarts Bernard Berrian (51 receptions, 6 TD) and Rashied Davis (22 receptions, 2 TD), but its receivers are nowhere near Indy's class.
Edge: Colts
Tight Ends: The most underrated player during Indy's run to the Super Bowl has been tight end Dallas Clark (30 receptions, 4 TD), who leads the team in playoff receptions (17) and receiving yards (281) and has burned opponents for keying too heavily on Harrison and Wayne. Second tight end Ben Utecht (37 receptions) has four catches in three postseason games. Meanwhile, the Bears' trio of Desmond Clark (45 receptions, 6 TD), John Gilmore (6 receptions, 2 TD), and Gabe Reid (4 receptions) has combined for just four receptions for 51 yards without a touchdown in two outings. Clark was Top 10 among NFL tight ends in receiving yards during the regular season, but he remains a notch below Clark.
Edge: Colts
Offensive Lines: From a standpoint of pure numbers, it is difficult to question the abilities of a Colts' offensive front that gave up the fewest sacks in the league (15) yet again and also helped its running backs amass a healthy four yards per carry. But the Bears' front was the team's most consistent offensive sub-group, protecting the sometimes-indecisive Rex Grossman (sacked 25 times) extremely well and helping its running backs combine for more than 1,900 yards against defenses that weren't preoccupied with the passing game, as were the Colts' opponents. If either of these units isn't a credit to its team on Sunday night, it will be a surprise.
Edge: Push
Defensive Lines: Even when factoring in how well the Colts have stopped the run in the postseason, it is impossible to overlook the historically poor work of a team that allowed 5.3 yards per carry during the regular season, the worst figure in the league since 1961. Tackles Raheem Brock (47 tackles, 3 sacks) and Anthony McFarland (33 tackles, 2.5 sacks) were regular candidates for being blown off the ball, and pass-rushing ends Dwight Freeney (29 tackles, 5.5 sacks) and Robert Mathis (65 tackles, 9.5 sacks) were too light to help them to any great degree. The Bears weren't stifling against the run, especially after Tommie Harris (hamstring) was lost for the year to injury late in the campaign, but interior linemen Tank Johnson (26 tackles, 3.5 sacks) and Ian Scott (22 tackles) were generally reliable. As for the pass rush, Chicago ends Adewale Ogunleye (43 tackles, 6.5 sacks), Alex Brown (46 tackles, 7 sacks), and Mark Anderson (28 tackles, 12 sacks) got after the quarterback more consistently than did Freeney and Mathis over the course of the season.
Edge: Bears
Linebackers: Again, no contest here. The Bears have a future Hall-of-Famer in Brian Urlacher (141 tackles, 3 INT) in the middle, and he is flanked by another Pro Bowler, Lance Briggs (130 tackles, 2 INT, 1 sack), on the outside. It is the rare running back that manages to get by both players. The Colts' LB group of Gary Brackett (120 tackles) in the middle and Cato June (142 tackles, 3 INT, 1 sack) and Rob Morris (55 tackles) on the flanks looked helpless at times in 2006, though it should be noted that the tossed-around defensive line didn't do them many favors. Brackett and June are solid in pass coverage, but pass coverage is not the area where linebackers make their money or build their reputations.
Edge: Bears
Defensive Backs: Chicago's Nathan Vasher (45 tackles, 3 INT) and Charles Tillman (80 tackles, 5 INT) would likely find themselves on a list of the NFL's top 20 corners, though it was nickel back Ricky Manning, Jr. (53 tackles, 5 INT, 2 sacks) that was actually the secondary's most consistent playmaker in 2006. Indianapolis' crew of CBs is a notch below, especially given the fact that Nick Harper (75 tackles, 3 INT) is questionable with an ankle problem. Probable starters Jason David (55 tackles, 2 INT) and Marlin Jackson (82 tackles, 1 INT) are capable, but not terrific. Indy probably has a slight edge at safety, where run-stopping force Bob Sanders (27 tackles, 1 INT) and rookie Antoine Bethea (90 tackles, 1 INT) have both been impact players. Their Chicago counterparts, Danieal Manning (67 tackles, 2 INT) and Chris Harris (54 tackles, 2 INT), are half-a-step below, but the quality of the Bears' corners and run-stopping linebackers has allowed them to get by with mediocre play.
Edge: Bears
Special Teams: Colts kicker Adam Vinatieri (25-28 FG) has serious Hall of Fame potential based in large part on his two Super Bowl-winning field goals for the Patriots. Vinatieri has been nothing short of outstanding in the 2006 postseason, going 11-for-11 on field goals. But Bears Pro Bowler Robbie Gould (32-36 FG, 5-for-5 in postseason) has also been very good, coming through in the clutch with game-tying and winning field goals against Seattle in the Divisional Round. Call that a wash, and echo that for punters Hunter Smith (44.4 avg.) of Indianapolis and Brad Maynard (44.2 avg.) of Chicago. But tip the scales heavily in the Bears' favor when considering the presence of Devin Hester (12.8 punt return avg., 26.4 kickoff return avg.), who scored six special teams touchdowns in one of the most electrifying seasons for a return man in NFL history.
Edge: Bears
Coaching: Tony Dungy and Lovie Smith share a similar approach, both will be making their first forays as head coaches on the Super Bowl stage, and the game-week preparation of the two teams figure to be just about identical. It is difficult to discern an advantage there. The same goes for the coaching staffs. Colts OC Tom Moore is probably held in slightly higher esteem than is the Bears' Ron Turner, while the same can be said for Chicago's Ron Rivera over his Indianapolis counterpart, Ron Meeks. The bottom line is that whatever team falls in this game is unlikely to lose because they were out-coached.
Edge: Push
Overall: The Colts are a heavy favorite in this game due mainly to the fact that it is difficult to envision Peyton Manning losing to Rex Grossman. However, it should be noted that there was a time when it was considered unthinkable that Tom Brady could beat Kurt Warner, Jeff Hostetler could get the better of Jim Kelly, or Doug Williams could take down John Elway. All occurred, and each of the above results were determined by more than just one player or position. When comparing the entire rosters of the Colts and Bears, there are actually shades of difference in terms of talent level. Indianapolis has the more consistent and potent offense. Chicago boasts the tougher, more credible defense. In light of those circumstances, we'll allow special teams to break the tie. Most NFL coaches would take Hester and Gould over Terrence Wilkins and Vinatieri, though not by much. And "not by much" will be the margin by which Chicago prevails, in upset fashion.
Prediction: Bears 23, Colts 20
posted by phantom
Jan. 31 2007 2:34pm -
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Super Bowl XLI: Proposition Wagering
Philadelphia, PA (Sports Network) - Last week, I detailed some reasons why the Bears have a decent shot at upsetting the Colts in Super Bowl XLI. This week, I'll delve into the fun part of the big game: Prop betting.
Las Vegas and most offshore gambling facilities offer a wide array of wagers from how many field goals will be made in the Super Bowl to how long it will take Billy Joel to sing the National Anthem!
Its time to run through my top plays from all the possible prop bets, and I'll begin with the three safest ones. Indianapolis receiver Marvin Harrison finished third in the NFL in receptions with 95 and second in yards with 1,366. Those numbers average out to six catches per game for 85 yards. However, the 11-year veteran has been held in check in the three playoff games, catching a combined 10 balls for 134 yards. Hes failed to even reach five receptions in a single postseason contest.
Taking those numbers a step further, Harrison was on the receiving end of 26% of Peyton Mannings completions during the 16-game regular season. Harrison was also Mannings main target, in terms of yardage, compiling 31% of the total number of yards thrown by his quarterback.
The playoffs have been the complete opposite. Harrison has caught only 10 of Mannings 72 completed passes, which averages out to 14%, far below the 26% during the regular season. In terms of yardage percentage, Manning has thrown for 787 yards in the postseason, and Harrison has been on the receiving end for 134 of them, a 17% ratio. Once again, this number is far under the 31% throughout the regular season.
Can these two connect more often in the Super Bowl? Theres always that chance, but with the way the Bears play defense, the odds are much greater that Harrison will continue his lackluster performance. Two prop bets that should come out on the winning side are:
1) Total receptions by Marvin Harrison. The number is set at 5 1/2, and one must wager $140 to win $100 on the OVER, while the UNDER is set at even money.
TAKE THE UNDER.
2) Total receiving yards by Marvin Harrison. The number is set at 78, and in both instances one must wager $120 to win $100. Harrison has failed to even reach 50 yards in any of the three postseason games.
TAKE THE UNDER.
Manning has not consistently looked for his trusted receiver because Dallas Clark has been the most lethal weapon on the field. The tight end has exploded in the playoffs with 17 receptions for 281 yards, after only having caught more than three passes in only two games during the regular season!
Manning and Clark hooked up only 30 times during the year for 367 yards, amounting to 8% ratio of Mannings completions and yardage thrown. Although Clark missed some time with injury, those percentages have increased to 24% in terms of receptions and a whopping 36% in relation to yardage in the playoffs.
The line on the number of receptions for Clark is set at 3.5, and one must wager $160 to win $100 on the OVER, which is way too high.
The better bet is:
3) Total receiving yards by Clark, which is set at 50.5. The UNDER actually is favored at -130, while the OVER is set at -110.
TAKE THE OVER.
The fourth play is:
4) Player to catch the first pass reception for the Colts. Harrison is the favorite at +180 and Reggie Wayne is a close second at +200.
TAKE CLARK AT THE JUICY NUMBER OF +300.
I predict a close final score with both teams scoring enough points to go over the total. I see the Colts reaching pay dirt at least three times. If they can score three TDs, expect Joseph Addai to account for at least one of those. The odds say that he won't, by the wide margin of -170 for no and +130 for yes.
5) Will Addai score a TD in the game? I say yes and gladly will take the +130 and run to the bank.
TAKE YES AND BET $100 TO WIN $130.
Staying with the touchdown theme, my next wager is:
6) Player to score the first TD of the game. This is always a crapshoot, but something tells me that it could be a long bomb from Rex Grossman to Bernard Berrian and the price is right at +1,000.
TAKE BERRIAN AND BET $100 TO WIN A GRAND.
7) Player to catch the first pass for the Bears. Receivers Berrian and Muhsin Muhammad are under +200, so lets take a shot to win some big bucks with Thomas Jones. The running back caught three or more passes in seven of his 16 games during the regular season and might be the perfect candidate for the win if Grossman wants to swing out a screen pass early in the game.
TAKE JONES AT THE SURPRISINGLY HIGH ODDS OF +500.
and 9) Robbie Goulds first field goal will be how many yards? I say his initial three-pointer made will be from a long way out, at least 40 yards. For this prop bet, I will make two wagers: A) From 40-49, you must bet $100 to win $250, and B) From 50 or longer, you must wager $100 to win a cool $550.TAKE BOTH A AND B AND HOPE THE BEARS GET STOPPED ON THEIR FIRST DRIVE AT INDYS 23-YARD LINE, PREFERABLY THE 33.
Speaking of field goals, I will end with number:
10) The first score of the game will be? The heavy choice is a touchdown at -170, but I am leaning towards the three-pointer being the initial tally, and how can you not at +140?
TAKE THE FG/SAFETY AND BET $100 TO WIN $140.
posted by phantom
Jan. 31 2007 2:35pm -
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Marc Lawrence
Super Bowl XLI kicks off on the sunny shores of South Beach this season and with it a new champion is about to be crowned.
As we’ve learned from experience in the past, before plunging into the waters, it is best to check out the temperature. The same holds true when it comes to ferreting out the Super Bowl winner. If history has a say, and it usually does, then it would serve one well to heed the following results from Super Bowls past.
- The last eleven Super Bowls have seen the favorite go 8-3 SU but 3-6-1 ATS.
- The last 13 favorites to score 30 or less points are 1-11-1 ATS.
- Teams who score 27 or more points are 22-1 SU and 20-2-1 ATS.
- Teams who score less than 20 points are 0-22 SU and 3-18-1 ATS.
- Teams who out-rush their opponent are 33-7 SU.
- The team with the higher scoring offense on the season is 12-3 SU in the last 15 games, including Seattle’s loss last year.
- The team on the longer win streak entering the game is 22-15 SU.
- Teams who lost their final regular season game are 6-14 SU.
- The team with the higher win percentage is 27-10 SU, including 20-0 SU if they manage to score 24 or more points.
- Teams that turn the ball over more times than their opponent in the game have won the Super Bowl only three times, including Pittsburgh last year.
There you have it, some Super Bowl tidbits to chew on as we get set for the Bears and Colts in Super Bowl XLI. Pass the Coppertone and enjoy!
posted by phantom
Feb. 1 2007 10:20pm -
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Seven Reasons the Bears Can Cover
By: Doc's Sports Date: Feb 1, 2007
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by T.O. Whenham - 01/31/2007
Who is going to win the Super Bowl? That's a very good question, and one that has had a whole lot of ink spilled and breath wasted over it this week. I think I finally know which way I am leaning. Obviously, this is an unofficial pick that is mine and no one else's, but at this point I tend to favor the Bears. I'm not certain that they will win, but I feel that there is a fair bit of value in taking the seven points. Certainly a lot more value, anyway, than there is in taking the Colts and giving up a full touchdown. There are a million ways to break down this game, and it's been so long since we've seen a game that we have had a chance to look at, but in my mind there are seven factors that are key to making this decision. Here's a look:
Rex Grossman - Chicago's QB is the factor that has been the most discussed and, in my mind, the most overcompensated for in this game. Grossman has had reasonably solid starts, with passer ratings over 80, in three of his last six games. That's one more than Peyton Manning has had in that stretch, and Manning hasn't gone over that mark in the last four games. Grossman has shown that he plays well when elements aren't a factor, as they shouldn't be in Miami on Sunday - he played great games down the stretch in domes in Detroit and Minnesota, he was excellent in warm weather in September, and he was pretty darned good back in Gainesville in his college days. The biggest factor is that his team believes in him and he wins. No matter how bad you may think he is, he is still the quarterback of the winningest team in the league that is still playing. He didn't play great against New Orleans, but he didn't make mistakes, and, most importantly, his team scored 39 points and won handily. I'm not guaranteeing that Grossman will be great, and I'm not saying that he isn't going to be the defining negative factor in this game, but I'm certainly not willing to bet that he will be.
Special teams - The Bears are significantly better on special teams, and that goes way beyond Devin Hester. Hester is the most dangerous returner in the league right now, and it doesn't hurt that he is returning to Miami where he was so good in college. Beyond that, though, the Bears are much better at covering the run, and come up with more big plays on special teams. In a game that could be as close as this one, special teams stand a real chance of making the difference. That's gives Chicago an edge.
Chicago defense - I'm not blindly endorsing this unit, because I think that they are vulnerable in some places. The pass rush could be better, especially if there weren't injury problems, and the secondary is far from the best at defending the pass. There are, however, a couple of reasons that I feel good about what the Bears are bringing to the table. First, the Colts have been relying on the rush more in the playoffs than they did in the regular season - more than 25 yards per game more. The Bears are a very good team against the rush, and they showed against the Saints that they can completely shut down an important dimension for teams that rely on the run to set up the pass. Second of all, the Colts wide receivers haven't been very good, so Manning has been relying very heavily on tight end Dallas Clark in the playoffs. That worked very well against Kansas City and New England, but was totally ineffective against Baltimore. Like Baltimore, Chicago has outstanding linebackers, and Lance Briggs and Brian Urlacher will make it very hard for Clark to establish himself. With two parts of the offense below full efficiency I think the Colts could struggle.
Turnovers - In a game that I think is going to be closer than most people imagine it will be, turnovers are going to be very important. By now you've probably heard the well-worn statistic that no team has ever lost the turnover battle by two or more in the Super Bowl and won the game. The Bears have significant advantages in interceptions and fumble recoveries over the season. Manning hasn't been particularly good at keeping the ball out of his opponent's hands in the playoffs, and the Bears aren't going to help him change that trend.
Colts defense - The Colts have an underrated pass defense, so Grossman could struggle to pass. I still find it very hard to believe, though, that the Colts run defense is as miraculously reformed as it has appeared in the playoffs. New England, for some bizarre reason, totally gave up on the run in the second half, despite having decent stats in the first half. Baltimore also gave up on the run relatively early, and Kansas City never even bothered to show up for their game. The Bears will almost certainly try harder to establish the run than those other teams. They know how important it will be to their offense, and they will also realize that they need to keep their defense off the field for as long as they can so that they don't get tired like the Patriots and Ravens did because of Indy's hurry up offense. Jones and Benson have been running very well for the Bears in the playoffs, and I am not willing to bet that the Colts will be able to stop that.
The Manning Factor - There is a sense that Manning has a date with destiny here. I'm not willing to buy into that. He is among the greatest regular season quarterbacks of all time, but he deserves every bit of the reputation he has for not performing in big games. He has been pretty lousy for five of the six halves of the playoffs, and he has had people telling him how big this game is for him for two weeks straight. He has historically given me no reason at all to have any faith that this time will be any different than the last nine times that he has faced 'the biggest game of the year' and hasn't got it done. He's the better quarterback, but the facts don't support that that is enough here.
Once bitten, twice shy - I'll admit it - I thought that Florida didn't stand a chance against Ohio State. I didn't see how it could be close. Maybe that's why I am not comfortable with the perceived feeling that Indianapolis has this thing sewn up. I remember less than a month ago when many people were picking Kansas City as a popular pick to upset the Colts. Indy hasn't completely redefined themselves or shown us something dramatic that we hadn't imagined since then. In fact, other than their run defense, they haven't been as good as we would expect. The Bears haven't done anything to make us doubt them and they pretty emphatically showed us that they were the best the NFC has to offer last week. It is certainly true on a grand scale that the AFC is much better than the NFC, but I'm not completely convinced that it is true in this instance. That makes the Bears a reasonable value at +7.
posted by phantom
Feb. 2 2007 1:28pm -
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Brandon Lang
SUPER BOWL
IMPORTANT
Print out my Super Bowl analysis - or copy it an email it to yourself - because if you got it through the purchase of a One-Day Discount Package today, or via a One-Day Cappers Consensus Purchase, you will NOT be able to see it again tomorrow.
100 DIME
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS
If your man has 7 1/2 you buy the hook and only lay 7. You NEVER, I repeat, you NEVER get beat by the hook. Only lay 7 and protect yourself. It's like buying insurance. Never get beat by the hook
FINAL SCORE - 31-13
5 FUN PROP BETS
1) Reggie Wayne to score first touchdown
2) Team to punt first - Bears
3) Grossman will throw an intercepiton
4) Field Goal OVER 44 yards
5) Longest TD of game OVER 45 1/2 yards
NOTE:
Let me first start out by saying that this one single game has defined my career. It has made me who I am in this business.
You dont go 14-0-2 with the 16 Super Bowl selections you have been asked to pick unless you understand the difference between this game and any other that these two teams have played all year
You see, what people dont understand is that this is the easiest game in the world to get on the right side of than any other because of one very big factor..match ups.
I have been asked time and time again what my system is, my formula, my magic if you will with picking this winner every time I have been asked to do it my entire life. My answer is always the same.
Of the two teams that are playing, who will be able to create more mismatches to their advantage because it is within these mismatches that the game will be determined.
You have to make plays in the Super Bowl. You have to have more players, on both sides of the football , who can make plays and more importantly, make plays under pressure because this game is the most pressure packed game in any sport.
What helps ease this pressure? Studying your opponent for 2 weeks and knowing, 100% they have a weakness that you will exploit. That my friends takes care of the pressure.
So without further delay, allow me to give you my analysis of what I truly feel will be my 15th straight Super Bowl winner.
INDY
Allow me to ask everyone a couple of questions right now. Here we go.
If the Bears wouldnt have had home field advantage in their two playoff games would they be in this game? Seriously, they struggled with the Seahawks and then got a dome team outdoors.
Next, could this Bears team have gone into Baltimore and beaten the Ravens like Indy did? Just pause a minute, close your eyes, and picture Rex Grossman against that Ravens defense. Yeah, pretty ugly.
You see, Indy earned their way here. They held the Chiefs to 0 first downs for 2 quarters. They went into Baltimore and went up and down the field on the number one defense in the NFL.
Now granted, the drives ended in field goals but that still does not take away from the fact they moved the ball at will. That is how good this Indy offense is.
With that being said, this is the Bears worst nightmare come to life. A no huddle, passing team to exploit the biggest weakness they have and that weakness is their pass defense.
I cant even begin to tell you in watching film of the Bears secondary how many guys were open in the Seattle game as well as the Saints. The only reason why the Saints didnt convert more was because Drew Brees had his 2nd worst game of the year. The first was the Ravens at home.
In talking to a couple of scouts around the league about this game, they all told me the same thing, if a team has time to throw, you can shredd this Bears secondary.
Folks, allow me to introduce to you the no huddle offense. As I said before, this is going to be the worst nightmare come to life for the Bears because in their 18 games this year, they have not seen an offense as fine tuned as this.
Furthermore, what makes the Colts so hard to defend is the fact they do not outsmart themselves. If they have a mismatch that they can exploit, they will keep going to it time and time again until you stop it.
Now here is the tricky part. Once you stop that leak, Peyton has already sprouted another one on you and before you know it, another problem for you to solve.
Here is the problem facing the Bears. They have their corners on the outside matched up with Wayne on one side and Harrison on the other. Their safeties in the middle of the field have to cheat towards the sideline to give over the top help.
That opens up 2 very important things for Indy. Their rush attack and the Colts ability to work the middle of the field. Peyton will chip away at that until the Bears adjust and when they do, goodnight with Wayne and Harrison on the outside.
Indy is going to force the Bears right from the opening kickoff to pick their poison and when they do, you had better believe the Colts will have an answer.
I was so impressed with the way the Colts moved the ball on the Ravens in Baltimore. It was a clinic and the Bears defense isnt even in the same league as Baltimore.
People keep talking about this great Bears defense but that is where they are really missing this game. They arent great and they can be had, especially on a neutral field, in 75 degree heat by Peyton Manning.
Now I have heard everyone talk about the fact that the Bears will be able to run the football and control the clock because the Colts are the worst run defense in during the regular season.
Well, as you can see, big difference between the regular season and playoffs. Just ask the Chiefs and Ravens, who were shut down.
The Bears run the ball by trying to be big and physical, just like the Ravens and the Chiefs and they will suffer the same fate.
Tony Dungy basically said to both of them, "I will put 8 in the box and make Trent Green and Stever McNair beat me. They couldn't and if two Pro Bowl QB's and a former league MVP couldn't, I don't see how people think Rex Grossman will.
The Bears run the ball by trying to be big and physical, just like the Ravens and the Chiefs and they will suffer the same fate.
That is what is going to happen people. Tony Dungy is smart enough to make this kid beat him in the biggest game of his life. It is not going to happen. Not in in my lifetime.
The only way the Bears cover this game is with a special teams touchdown by Hester. The only way.
If that happens so be it.
My money is on Indy, on the better QB, the better offense, the better coach and flat out the better team.
Congrats to owner Jim Irsay, one of the most sincere and geniune men I have ever had the pleasure of meeting. Congrats to Tony Dungy and congrats to Peyton Manning.
Colts are your Super Bowl champions by double digits...31-13
posted by phantom
Feb. 2 2007 1:43pm -
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Super Bowl Trends, Tips and Tidbits
By: Steve Makinen - StatFox
Published: 2/1/2007 at 8:00:00 AM
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About a month or so ago, StatFox posted an article focused entirely on the historical betting trends and angles for the postseason action heading up to the Super Bowl. This week's release covers the same material for the big game. The reason for the distinct separation of the two is because now that the dust has settled and Chicago & Indianapolis have finally emerged to battle for the NFL Title in Miami, the means for successfully handicapping the contest change significantly. In addition to all of the normal factors that a bettor has to consider on a weekly basis, the Super Bowl offers some variation. Two weeks of rest, a neutral field, and hundreds of available proposition bets, all of which can make for a challenging period of handicapping. At no other point in the season does it pay off more to do your homework, especially considering your family and friends will probably be watching your wagers unfold with you on the big screen on game day.
The Super Bowl is undoubtedly the sporting and television event of the year. It is also clearly the largest wagered event in all of sports, as nearly everyone seems to have some sort of interest in the game. The Super Bowl seems to bring even the most novice of bettors out of the woodwork. Of course, oddsmakers realize this as well, as the wagering options are increased multi-fold for the big game. Square pools, ATS and Total wagers, Teasers, Propositions, oh my, it’s like a bettor’s buffet. Unfortunately, many of the casual fans go uneducated into the process, and wake up the next morning not only with a hangover, but also without any money left to buy their morning coffee. After reading the remainder of this article, everyone should be much wiser come Super Bowl XLI Sunday!
Remember the days of the 80’s and early 90’s when winning a Super Bowl wager was as easy as saying the words “give me the NFC team!â€
posted by phantom
Feb. 2 2007 1:49pm -
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Six Super Bowl Wagering Questions
By: Staff Writer - StatFox
Published: 2/2/2007 at 7:26:00 AM
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With the game just two days away what are the key questions that need to be answered in order for people to profit on the Super Bowl. The StatFox staff sat down and formulated twenty questions and narrowed it down to the Super Six and assigned a staff writer to answer them. You may agree or disagree, but no mistaking you will find this intriguing reading.
1) Should Indianapolis really be favored by a touchdown?
This is not a simple answer, thus we’ll explore from a couple of points. Sportsbook.com and many other books with similar clientele have kept the line at seven points, while considering wavering. Sportsbook.com has seen 53% of those wagering, taking the points with the Bears. Wagerline has seen 58 percent of their customers placing selections also in favor Chicago. Others like Betcris.com have come off the number and are at 6.5-points with the Colts still favored. Before the playoffs started most books figured the AFC representative to be 4 to 6 point pick whoever the teams were from each conference, based on the strength of each. Try this theory on for size. If Baltimore was a four point home favorite against Indianapolis and San Diego was better team then the Ravens, at worst the Chargers would also have been a four point home favorite had they met. Following that to a conclusion that either the Chargers or Ravens had made it to Super Bowl XLl, they would have been 8-point favorites. Does anyone really believe taking either of those teams with that many points would have been a good bet? Probably not. Thus the Colts at a touchdown appear to be a bit over-stated.
2) Is Chicago worth a wager on the money line?
Thus far bettors have let their actions speak for them with a whopping 84% playing the Bears on the money line at Sportsbook. In talking to a few sportsbooks and operators in Las Vegas, the Chicago bandwagon is bordering on overflowing. While Bear fans were skeptical the last month of the regular season about their team’s play, the win over New Orleans sealed the deal to bring everyone out to support their team. In studying both teams the difference do not appear to be significant other then at the quarterback position. In this case the Chicago has to depend more on its team rather then Indy who can ride Peyton Manning’s hot hand if that occurs. Underdogs have won three of last nine Super Bowls, thus not giving appearance of great wager.
3) Is the total higher then it should be?
Points of view will differ, but realistically it seems to be about right. Manning this season has had three occasions this season were he threw for 270 yards or better coming off a game throwing for 205 yards or less the previous contest. If you include the opening game of the year, in the next game the Colts are 3-1 and 4-0 ATS. The Over has been the correct call with only the recent Baltimore playoff game coming up short. Chicago tied with Tennessee as the top Over team at 11-4-1 and has added two more to that total. Though both teams are in the Super Bowl, each has flaws defensively the other team more then as has the ability to exploit. Since the 1985 Super Bowl their have been 15 games were the total was at least 46 points. The Over has been correct in nine of them.
4) Are Super Bowl props good bets?
Yes this area can be quite profitable, only if you have done your home work and know what these numbers actually mean. A friend of StatFox could care less about the side and total of the game and instead studies furiously all the props at various books he belongs to. His first method is to find significant differences from the various books and his Las Vegas connections and pound the weaker lines first. From there he studies all the averages of the players involved and charts anticipated figures, where he can really cash on weak numbers. In his 13 years of doing this he has yet to lose and has frequently made far more money playing props then wagering on the side or total. His case is extreme, because he is committed. It is not our goal to tell you how or what to bet, but much like eating and drinking on Super Bowl Sunday, it is best to play props in moderation and stick with things you know. It can be fun and profitable if use common sense with knowledge.
5) Can either team win without their A-Game?
Based on the spread, the natural inclination is Chicago would be less likely to win since they are the underdog if they don’t play their best. The Bears big play capabilities were restricted by opponents as the season wore on and Rex Grossman was still trying to force passes to create them. For Chicago they must stay away from turnovers. The Bears have had 10 games were they committed 1 or fewer miscues. In those games they were 10-0 and 9-1 ATS. Lovie Smith’s team also had six games were they committed at least three turnovers. In those contests they were 3-3 with matching spread record. If they cough it up that many times to the Colts, game, set and match. The last time Indianapolis had an errorless contest was 13 games ago at Denver. The Colts have not turned it over a lot, with only two games of more then two. However it is not a stretch to believe they will do so again at least once. This puts a premium on the Bears offense to convert into touchdown. The Colts have a greater margin of error because of offense, just not a tremendous margin.
6) What team is most likely to cave into pressure of game?
No question Tony Dungy’s Colts have more pressure as does any favored team. For year’s Indianapolis has carried the burden of Manning winning multiple Super Bowls with the offensive talent on hand. Now after falling short many times they finally made it. With all the questions about Grossman, it is good to keep in mind Manning has been razor sharp for two quarters and the last drive before halftime against New England in last three playoff games. Though nobody is more poised in the pocket and has to carry the weight of the offense on his shoulders, he is still human. What happens to the defense if the Bears offensive line starts ripping huge holes and they are in second and short for the first half? Do the Colts suffer déjàvu being trampled again?
The Chicago coaching staff faces exceptional pressure on both sides of the ball. The game plan will be much the same as it has been in the playoffs. Do things to build Grossman’s confidence and turn him loose when you feel he’s ready. If the Bears defensive front can not generate a pass rush to sack or bother Manning then what? Brian Urlacher had zero sacks this season and does not appear to truly grasp the concept of blitzing without an open lane. Despite his obvious athletic skills, OC Tom Moore would love to see Urlacher chasing TE Dallas Clark all over the field. The defensive coaches for Chicago have a tall task unless they get to the quarterback. If the Bears are down double digits early, what do they do to counteract Indy?
posted by phantom
Feb. 2 2007 2:09pm -
0 likes
Vinatieri: Lost in the Shadows of Greatness
By: Bryan Douglass - StatFox
Published: 1/31/2007 at 1:13:00 PM
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Don’t worry. You have roughly five days to recover.
The country is trying to absorb the realities of one of the most exciting Sundays we’ve had in some time. The NFL provided two outstanding games for your viewing pleasure and they certainly delivered the kind of excitement that has made professional football the new American pastime.
The Chicago Bears, a bruising group historically associated with the violent nature of the game, were opportunistic in defeating the New Orleans Saints, the darling adoptive football sons of a country hoping to see fate avenged. Watching the gem of the South rise from the ravages of nature to an improbable journey to the Super Bowl would have driven many to tears, but those hopes and dreams were railroaded by fumbles and turnovers as the Chicago defense turned those tragic mistakes into a 39-14 win.
184 miles away the face of potential unfulfilled finally realized the emotions new experiences can provide. The New England Patriots had given the Indianapolis Colts early tee times in two of the last three seasons, handing their modern-day rivals playoff losses in games at Boston in 2003 and 2004. However, in 2006 the teams would meet again, this time in Indianapolis, and the Colts mounted one of the largest comebacks in NFL playoff history to steal victory from the grasps of defeat, claiming a 38-34 win.
The day was filled with emotional highs and lows, peaks of excitement and valleys of disappointment for fans across the nation. Even the oblivious fan, void of preference or desire to see a particular team emerge, could not have watched these games without some kind of subconscious desire to see a particular outcome. The stories ran deep with sensation and it is hard to imagine anyone could serve witness without some form of vested interest in the outcome. The energy spent by viewers and fans couldn’t possibly be measured, and for those efforts we are rewarded with time to recover and what could be a great Super Bowl battle.
While we use the next 14 days or so to recoup our senses and regenerate our emotional banks for one last NFL hurrah, the media will start to churn the stories hidden in this matchup. It has become an annual rite of passage for those granted the illustrious privilege of covering this event for the newspapers, magazines, televisions shows, radio programs, and internet sites we all utilize to build our own interest and anticipation for this game. They say every game has a story, but every Super Bowl offers hundreds of potential angels for those looking to attach something more than a team’s jersey to the event, and this particular Super Bowl is ripe with those tales.
For the first time in league history, an African-American head coach will lead a team in the Super Bowl. In fact, both teams are headed by black coaches, ensuring the NFL will crown the first-ever Super Bowl Champion to be coached by a black man. This would represent a watershed moment for any organization and is sure to hit home with many fans of the game.
Indianapolis QB Peyton Manning, long viewed as a premier talent in this league, will play in his first Super Bowl and will finally have the chance, for the first time in his football career (college or professional), to prove he can win on the largest of stages (and he’ll bring WR Marvin Harrison, possibly one of the best to ever play at the position, with him).
There are countless peripheral stories that are sure to hit the eyes and hearts of football fans as we build the excitement for the big game. The two stories above will fill the bulk of that time, and rightfully so. One presents a historical landmark for a league often viewed as the innovative force in professional sports while the other presents an intriguing human-interest tale proven to tug at the heartstrings of most Americans (David slays Goliath, overcoming the most daunting of obstacles, earning the respect we all knew was necessary but all wondered if it was truly obtainable).
With all of that said and put forth, one story may fly under the radar. There is an intriguing tale of dominance, of excellence in the face of obscurity, but the nature of the game may dictate that story will not be told. Considering the plethora of stories demanding attention, this is understandable. We had a city in New Orleans trying to put the horrors of Hurricane Katrina to rest (or at least to the shadows for a bit) by taking their fans on a wild ride through the playoffs. The Chicago Bears have relied on a quarterback largely viewed as the football equivalent to crystal meth for success (highly volatile, insanely wild and inconsistent, capable of producing exhilarating highs and suicidal lows). The Patriots were riding the magic commonly referred to as the Belichick-Brady era in an attempt to become the unquestionable leaders of modern football. The Colts were simply hoping to put those nagging labels as consummate underachievers to rest. Now we are left with the Bears and the Colts, and hidden in that duel is one man that can epitomize almost all of the stories above, all in one nearly perfect (and often unrecognized) package, and few will recognize his contributions and potential influence over the next two weeks.
To be fair, my man comes from one of two positions that struggle to gain proper respect for the work they do on the field. Offensive linemen are the only players that make sizeable impacts on each and every offensive possession. It is those linemen that block for the running back on rushing plays, that provide protection for the quarterback on passing plays, and that are guaranteed to make hits and physical plays with each snap of the ball, yet it is rare to find a report dedicated to the impact those men make on the final score. With that said, one has only to read the headlines each offseason to realize those linemen may not receive their due in the hearts of fans but they certainly find respect on their pay stubs. In 2006, the two most-lucrative free-agent signings involved offensive linemen (Cleveland OC LeCharles Bentley & Minnesota OT Steve Hutchinson). Offensive linemen are paid for their contributions and, in recent years, are recognized as the top commodities and desires in the league.
On the other hand, kickers are rarely given proper respect, either in perception or at the bank. You would be hard pressed to find a more volatile position in the game as teams often trade out different options at the position like disposable contact lenses. Consider this: Of the NFL’s top-20 point producers this season, 18 were kickers. Each team earning a spot in the playoffs possesses one of those players, a trend proven as a historical consistency over the existence of the NFL. However, when the discussion turns towards the most influential players in the game, no one sees fit to bring those players to the table. The stories emerging from those games were centered around the quarterbacks (Peyton Manning earning his first trip to the Super Bowl, Tom Brady finally taking a fall in the playoffs) and defense (the Bears dominating the Saints by forcing turnovers and relegating their offense to disappointment).
This is not a solitary instance. Kickers have never been viewed in high regard in this league. Much more often than not, they are viewed as glorified soccer players, necessary evils in a game defined by physical contact. Kickers rarely, if ever, seek physical contact. They aren’t “realâ€
posted by phantom
Feb. 2 2007 2:11pm -
0 likes
Norm Hitzges
Super Bowl
Chicago vs Indianapolis (-7) Total: 48.5
The long term historical trends regarding this “ultimate gameâ€
posted by phantom
Feb. 2 2007 2:12pm -
0 likes
USA SPORTS from sportswire
game of the week $40
Chicago Bears regular pick
posted by phantom
Feb. 2 2007 2:13pm -
0 likes
Teddy Covers SB winner
Chicago Bears +7
posted by phantom
Feb. 2 2007 2:17pm -
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StatFox Scuffle Pt 1: SB XLI Team Props
By: Staff Writer - StatFox
Published: 1/29/2007 at 8:00:00 AM
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StatFox representatives Doug Upstone and Steve Makinen sat down this week for another StatFox Scuffle to review many of the Super Bowl Prop odds available for Sunday’s big game at BetCRIS and Sportsbook. This is Part 1 of the two-part series, covering team props. On Tuesday, look for Part 2 covering the player prop options.
The Scuffle is one of the more popular regular features on StatFox, as Doug & Steve, with the help of some occasional guest panelists break down the hot topics in sports and sports betting, offering insights and opinions flavored with a dose of comedy and competitive zest. The dialogue below is a look at the thought process they undergo when reviewing proposition wagering.
Now, on to the Super Bowl betting options…
StatFox: Hello everybody, we're here today for a special Super Bowl Edition of the StatFox Scuffle, matching the wits of StatFox Doug & StatFox Steve on the big game. We will be reviewing many of the available bets being offered in various places for Sunday's Chicago-Indianapolis Title Contest, everything from the side and total, to the props. So without further ado, I welcome in StatFox Doug & StatFox Steve. Good day gentlemen and welcome to the StatFox Scuffle.
StatFox Doug says: Hello Steve, seems like just yesterday that we were doing this exact same thing for Seattle & Pittsburgh, only me better than you! Man how time flies!
StatFox Steve says: Yes it does Doug, and I suppose at your age, it flies faster than most. I’m surprised you can even remember last year’s Super Bowl.
StatFox says: Ok guys, enough of the “pleasantriesâ€
posted by phantom
Feb. 2 2007 2:20pm -
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StatFox Scuffle Pt 2: SB XLI Player Props
By: Staff Writer - StatFox
Published: 1/30/2007 at 8:00:00 AM
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After reviewing the team betting options for Sunday's Super Bowl XLI contest, Doug & Steve are back today for Part 2 of their StatFox Scuffle, this time looking at the player prop options available at BetCRIS and Sportsbook. Among the angles they look at are yardage totals for the key players in the game, who's likely to score first, and MVP.
PEYTON MANNING Total Passing Yards?
OVER 263½-155
UNDER 263½+125
SF Doug: UNDER - Don't see Chicago giving up enough big plays for Manning surpass this total. Chicago has time of possesion and limits the number of times Colts have the ball.
SF Steve: There are two positives to the equation if you take the UNDER 263-1/2 yards with Manning. First, he only exceeded that number in nine of 16 games in the regular season, and second, I'm sure Dungy would rather see a balanced attack on Sunday.
What will PEYTON MANNING Throw First?
TD -200
INT +160
SF Doug: Touchdown will come first, even though the Bears will have a couple of close ones in the first half.
SF Steve: Playing in the biggest game of his life, the current best quarterback in football might not throw any interceptions. Therefore, the -200 offering on TD would figure to be the better play. His regular season TD:Int ratio was 31:9, well justifying the -200.
PEYTON MANNING Total Completions?
OVER 22½-115
UNDER 22½-115
SF Doug: UNDER - Because of the aforementioned ball control, Manning will be one or two short of making this number in the Super Bowl.
SF Steve: The oddsmakers plucked this prop right from the season statistics, as Manning averaged 22.6 completions per game. Do you think the Colts will have to pass to win? If so, Manning probably exceeds the 22-1/2. If not, go with the under.
PEYTON MANNING Total Interceptions?
OVER ½-170
UNDER ½+140
SF Doug: OVER - Chicago defensive backs have good hands and will pick one off for that reason alone.
SF Steve: You only get 20 cents more on the dollar if you bet Manning to throw a pick before a TD, so if you do believe a Chicago interception is in the cards for Sunday, then by all means, extend your chances with this much more reasonable +140 payout.
PEYTON MANNING Total Rushing Yards
OVER 1½+110
UNDER 1½-140
SF Doug: The fleet-footed Manning will run by this number and double the amount all the way to three yards. Only way he doesn't is kneel downs at the end.
SF Steve: Neither of the quarterbacks in SB XLI are what you'd call "fleet of foot". Before you go putting parts of your livelihood down on Manning falling forward for two yards, recognize that he rarely runs for more than a sneak, and kneel downs are -2 to his total.
JOSEPH ADDAI Total Rushing Attempts?
OVER 15½+100
UNDER 15½-130
SF Doug: UNDER- Might be the easiest of all the props. Addai has done great work all year, however Dominic Rhodes has been great change of pace and will see earlier action.
SF Steve: Addai's workload has been inconsistent at best this season, and he exceeded the 15-1/2 carry mark just seven times in the regular season. However, the Colts have a new found love for running the ball, averaging 34 attempts in last four. OVER 15.5
JOSEPH ADDAI Total Rushing Yards?
OVER 62½+105
UNDER 62½-135
SF Doug: UNDER- Bears will stifle Addai and have more trouble with Rhodes, especially in the second half.
SF Steve: Although the Colts have rededicated themselves to running the ball recently, they're still only averaging 3.8 YPR during that stretch. Things won't get easier against the stout Bears defense. Sharing the load, Addai will go UNDER 62.5.
JOSEPH ADDAI Total Receptions?
OVER 2½-115
UNDER 2½-115
SF Doug: OVER - Averaged 2.5 during regular season and will be safety valve when protection breaks down.
SF Steve: Addai's caught 40 of 53 balls thrown his way during the regular season. While an impressive ratio, that only works out to less than 3-1/2 looks per game. It would be a stretch for Manning to go to him more than that in the Super Bowl.
JOSEPH ADDAI Total Receiving Yards?
OVER 17½-115
UNDER 17½-115
SF Doug: OVER - On the presumption he makes three catches, he averages 8 yards per reception.
SF Steve: The way with which the Colts utilized Addai in the passing game this season was very inconsistent. This bet and the one on Rhodes will clearly come down to the pressure Chicago gets on Manning and his need to uitilize running backs.
DOMINIC RHODES Total Rushing Attempts?
OVER 12½-140
UNDER 12½+110
SF Doug: OVER- He'll see more first half action then other playoff games and should end up around 15 for the game.
SF Steve: Like the Chevy commercial and Bob Seger's popular song, the veteran Rhodes figures to be "Like a Rock" for Dungy and Manning on Sunday. I would expect the Colts to utilize Rhodes more heavily than usual on Sunday. Over 12.5.
DOMINIC RHODES Total Rushing Yards?
OVER 48½-115
UNDER 48½-115
SF Doug: OVER - Will just nudge over this number in the last carry or two against Bears run defense.
SF Steve: I find it interesting that Rhodes' yardage prop is 3.9 times greater than his rushing attempts prop. Why? Because he only averaged 3.4 yards per carry during the regular season. It's difficult to see him finding much space in the Bears defense. Under 48.5.
DOMINIC RHODES Total Receptions?
OVER 2-115
UNDER 2-115
SF Doug: UNDER- Addai will play more in passing situations, because he is more accomplished blocker and has better understanding of passing game.
SF Steve: Coaches turn to veterans in the big games, and if such is the case for Indianapolis on Sunday, you'd figure that Rhodes will get a chance to catch a few passes. During the season, he caught 36. You should get at least a push with an OVER 2 play.
DOMINIC RHODES Total Receiving Yards?
OVER 18½-120
UNDER 18½-110
SF Doug: UNDER - Averages 7 yards a catch, thus if he has less then two catches, logic dictates he'll go under number.
SF Steve: Have you ever focused on Brian Urlacher's pass defense on running backs. He's all over them when they catch the ball. Unlike Addai, Rhodes doesn't possess the speed to beat Urlacher for a big play. He'd probably have to catch 4-5 passes to beat 18.5 yards.
MARVIN HARRISON Total Receptions?
OVER 5½-115
UNDER 5½-115
SF Doug: OVER- In the biggest game of his life Manning will be sure to go to favorite receiver as often as possible, be it short or long throws.
SF Steve: Those focusing on Manning finally making it to the Super Bowl musn't overlook Harrison, another well-decorated veteran player who is on the big stage for the first time. He figures to be the target of at least a dozen passes. Six catches is very realistic. Over 5.5.
MARVIN HARRISON Total Receiving Yards?
OVER 76½+115
UNDER 76½-145
SF Doug: OVER- Harrison will be around 100 yards with his six or seven catches on the day.
SF Steve: Harrison and Reggie Wayne share the same yardage prop for this year's Super Bowl. Considering the rich history between the two, Manning figures to rely on Harrison heavily, and he went over 76 yards 10 times in the regular season.
REGGIE WAYNE Total Receptions?
OVER 5-135
UNDER 5+105
SF Doug: UNDER- Chicago is good at taking away underneath throws and fears Wayne's after the catch running ability. If he doesn't have the ball, he can't hurt them.
SF Steve: Of the two Colts' wide receivers, Wayne is the one capable of making bigger plays down the field, but he is also younger. This means he isn’t targeted as frequently as Harrison. In the second half of the season, he was targeted less than 8 times per game.
REGGIE WAYNE Total Receiving Yards?
OVER 76½-115
UNDER 76½-115
SF Doug: UNDER- Expecting total of four receptions, two short and two medium range for about 65 yards total.
SF Steve: Wayne's yards per reception went down steadily over the course of the season, as the big plays that were there early just weren't anymore. With the Bears defense yielding just 5.5 yards per pass attempt, I don't suspect many Sunday. Under 76.5.
DALLAS CLARK Total Receptions?
OVER 4+140
UNDER 4-170
SF Doug: OVER - Proved his value in AFC title game and will be key factor if Colts win. Getting open down the middle is his specialty.
SF Steve: Clark made some huge catches for the Colts in the playoffs and with fellow TE Ben Utecht being questionable for the Super Bowl because of a knee injury, Manning will probably rely on Clark even more on Sunday. Look for an OVER 4.
DALLAS CLARK Total Receiving Yards?
OVER 50½+135
UNDER 50½-165
SF Doug: OVER - His five catches will result is 62 yards his season average.
SF Steve: This is an interesting prop only in the fact that the price for wanting under 50-1/2 yards comes with such a steep price (-165). Can I take 49-1/2 yards for a -115 price? If so I would. With the way it is now though, the OVER at +135 could be worth a look.
REX GROSSMAN Total Passing Yards?
OVER 198½-155
UNDER 198½+125
SF Doug: OVER - If Chicago is going to have realistic chance Grossman will have to throw for over 200 yards. He throws deep out well and this is open against Colts Cover 2.
SF Steve: The StatFox Estimator projects Chicago to pass for only 163 yards, of course, after sacks. So assuming this adjusted projection for Grossman's yardage is around 175, that still leaves 23-1/2 yards to spare. I think this is a safe under 198-1/2 play.
What will REX GROSSMAN Throw First?
TD -130
INT +100
SF Doug: Interception by default, since I see him making throws bringing the Bears near the goal line, where they end up running it in.
SF Steve: Unlike his counterpart in Sunday's game, Grossman didn’t have the most stellar of TD:Int ratios at 23:20. Remember how badly Ben Roethlisberger played in last year's win? There's a chance Rex could go without a TD and still be victorious.
REX GROSSMAN Total Completions?
OVER 17½-110
UNDER 17½-120
SF Doug: OVER- This will demand patience, as potentially 40 percent of his completions will come in the final stanza.
SF Steve: In his last nine games, Grossman only exceeded the 17-1/2 completion benchmark three times. In addition, in the Bears' last five spread covering wins, he averaged only 11.2 completions. It's a good bet that the Bears don't want to exceed this total.
REX GROSSMAN Total Interceptions?
OVER 1-125
UNDER 1-105
SF Doug: OC Ron Turner will demand patience from former Florida QB, and have him throwing it away before tossing it up for grabs. Slight lean toward Under.
SF Steve: Fellow youngster Roethlisberger turned the ball over a couple of times in the '06 Super Bowl, but I imagine even he wasn't as cognisant of it as Grossman will be on Sunday. Rex's play in the playoffs was VERY heady & conservative. This bet will probably push.
REX GROSSMAN Total Rushing Yards?
OVER 1+130
UNDER 1-160
SF Doug: UNDER - He'll be sacked often enough where this will be an easy winner.
SF Steve: Grossman rushed for 2 yards in the regular season. Let me repeat…TWO yards. However, I still get the feeling he has a good chance to make a nice play escaping the pocket on an outside rush by Freeney. I'll look for five yards from King Rex.
THOMAS JONES Total Rushing Attempts?
OVER 17½-120
UNDER 17½-110
SF Doug: UNDER - His determination will earn his the majority of the carries, yet if Chicago trails into the fourth quarter the running attack will become less important.
SF Steve: The problem with both the Colts and Bears for these running back props is that not only do you have to worry about figuring out how well the team will be able to run the ball, you also have to project the split workload. In which case, under is the way to err.
THOMAS JONES Total Rushing Yards?
OVER 78½+105
UNDER 78½-135
SF Doug: UNDER - If he has about 15 carries at five yards a pop, this equals 75 total yards, making this below the total.
SF Steve: Although I feel Thomas Jones is fully capable of having a strong game against the Colts, I fear the pattern of carry distribution that developed in the latter part of the season and playoffs. Jones could go a quarter at a time and get only a couple chances.
THOMAS JONES Total Receptions?
OVER 2+100
UNDER 2-130
SF Doug: Unless Chicago runs screens of which Grossman is not terribly accurate, Jones will not be involved in passing game.
SF Steve: Jones caught 36 passes in the regular season but just 11 in the last eight games. His workload simply dropped as Cedric Benson became more a part of the offense. Grossman doesn't use his back in the passing game real well either. Under 2.
THOMAS JONES Total Receiving Yards?
OVER 9-120
UNDER 9-110
SF Doug: UNDER - Averages 4.3 yards per catch, any need to go further?
SF Steve: Combining the fact that Jones averaged just 4.3 yards per catch during the regular season, and that I don't think he will be utilized heavily on Sunday, I see no way to go other than under 9 miniscule receiving yards for the veteran running back.
CEDRIC BENSON Total Rushing Attempts?
OVER 12½-140
UNDER 12½+110
SF Doug: Really a tough call, depending how hard Benson plays, which sounds absurd, yet has proven to be correct. I'll go Under, with even dozen attempts not shocking.
SF Steve: The StatFox Estimator projects Chicago to run the ball 30 times. I already projected Jones to get fewer than his posted 17-1/2 carries. That leaves at least 13 attempts to be gobbled up by Benson, and his workload has increased as the year wore on. Over.
CEDRIC BENSON Total Rushing Yards?
OVER 49½-135
UNDER 49½+105
SF Doug: OVER- With Bears offensive line, thinking about five yards a touch. Do the math, 12 x 5 = 60 yards.
SF Steve: The Colts haven't faced a legitimate 1-2 running punch since they gave up 375 yards to Jacksonville in December. While expecting that type of performance from Chicago would be way overzealous, expecting the bruiser Benson to eclipse 50 yards isn't. Over.
CEDRIC BENSON Total Receptions?
OVER 1+105
UNDER 1-135
SF Doug: UNDER- With eight catches during the regular season, he proved his value as receiver.
SF Steve: Benson doesn't catch many passes, in fact, only eight during the regular seasons. His strong suit is pounding the football. I wouldn't expect Chicago and OC Ron Turner to utilize him in any different capacity on Sunday. One catch tops for CB.
CEDRIC BENSON Receiving Yards?
OVER 7½+110
UNDER 7½-140
SF Doug: If ZERO is Under, then I got myself a winner.
SF Steve: This is another prop plucked right from the season averages. Benson averaged about 7 yards per reception this year. If you expect the Bears to use him in the passing game, 7-1/2 yards can be picked up in an instant. If not, under is the way to go.
MUHSIN MUHAMMAD Total Receptions?
OVER 3½-115
UNDER 3½-115
SF Doug: Most important offensive player other then Grossman. If he has big game Chicago will be taking home hardware for first time since 1985.
SF Steve: From the looks of it, linesmakers aren't expecting a real big game from Muhammad. That could be a big mistake, as Muhsin is one of the few players on the Bears' roster with Super Bowl experience. Look for a handful or more catches from him.
MUHSIN MUHAMMAD Total Receiving Yards?
OVER 46½-125
UNDER 46½-105
SF Doug: OVER- Veteran receiver understands Dungy defense after all those years in Carolina facing Tampa Bay twice a year. Closer to 80 yards receiving than this total.
SF Steve: Although Muhammad isn't considered the "big play" receiver in the Bears' lineup, he still averaged 14.4 yards per reception during the regular season. If he does indeed get five catches, he's crafty enough to easily surpass the 46-1/2 yard prop.
BERNARD BERRIAN Total Receptions?
OVER 4½-140
UNDER 4½+110
SF Doug: UNDER - Does not seem the type of game he will be most effective. Will only get better, just wrong type of defense and game for him to be max effective.
SF Steve: Berrian is clearly the flavor of the month for oddsmakers when compared to Muhammad. Also the latter caught nine balls more during the season, Berrian is playing to the higher catch total prop. BB caught no more than six balls in game. Under.
BERNARD BERRIAN Total Receiving Yards?
OVER 65½-115
UNDER 65½-115
SF Doug: UNDER – This is another number that could be very close, since he will have at least one catch of 20+ yards. It just won’t be enough to fly over this total.
SF Steve: For me, the yardage prop is more difficult to project for a receiver like Berrian than the receptions. As he showed in the playoffs, Berrian can go over 65-1/2 yards on a single catch if the Bears hit a big one. I'll pass knowing I could get beat by one play.
DESMOND CLARK Total Receptions?
OVER 2-130
UNDER 2+100
SF Doug: If Grossman is to throw for over 200 yards, Clark must account for 25 percent. He's a big target with average hands who must come through. Count on him to go Over.
SF Steve: Besides the looks Clark got throughout the season in the red zone, Grossman seemed to be utilizing his tight end on a seam play often in the postseason. Unless someone knows something I don't, two seems like a ridiculously low catch total for Clark.
DESMOND CLARK Total Receiving Yards?
OVER 33½-125
UNDER 33½-105
SF Doug: OVER - It's 50 yards or bust for Clark, who must be large factor for Chicago to compete or possibly win Super Bowl.
SF Steve: The oddsmakers missed on either the receptions or the yardage with Clark. Apparently, he should get 2 catches for 33 yards, an average of 16.5 per catch. That's high for a tight end. I'll stick with the receptions over and stay away from this one.
ADAM VINATIERI Total Points Made/ FG=3, XPTS=1?
OVER 7½-135
UNDER 7½+105
SF Doug: UNDER - Three extra points and field goal are six points no matter how you do the math. Fortunately I didn't need to go beyond ten fingers to calculate this total.
SF Steve: I go back to the end zone trouble that Indianapolis had been experiencing prior to the second half of the AFC title game. The Bears defense is going to be tough to break. However, they may bend, leading to multiple FG attempts for Vinatieri. Over 7.5.
ROBBIE GOULD Total Points Made/ FG=3, XPTS=1?
OVER 8½+140
UNDER 8½-170
SF Doug: UNDER - Just misses with two field goals and two extra points. Fanatasy players getting extra points for long kicks should benefit.
SF Steve: Gould scored 8.9 PPG during the regular season to lead the league. However, being the underdog in this game, the Bears figure to get fewer scoring chances than Indy. With Gould's total being higher than Vinatieri's, I gotta stay away.
Odds to Win 2007 Super Bowl MVP
Adam Vinatieri (INDIANAPOLIS) 9-1
Bernard Berrian (CHICAGO) 12-1
Bob Sanders (INDIANAPOLIS) 30-1
Brian Urlacher (CHICAGO) 10-1
Cedric Benson (CHICAGO) 10-1
Dallas Clark (INDIANAPOLIS) 25-1
Devin Hester (CHICAGO) 20-1
Dominic Rhodes (INDIANAPOLIS) 15-1
Joseph Addai (INDIANAPOLIS) 8-1
Marvin Harrison (INDIANAPOLIS) 9-1
Muhsin Muhammad (CHICAGO) 18-1
Peyton Manning (INDIANAPOLIS) 1-1
Reggie Wayne (INDIANAPOLIS) 12-1
Rex Grossman (CHICAGO) 5-1
Robbie Gould (CHICAGO) 12-1
Terrence Wilkins (INDIANAPOLIS) 30-1
Thomas Jones (CHICAGO) 8-1
SF Doug: Seeing Manning's odds are waste of time, I'll try Marvin Harrison who is around 100 yards receiving. If Manning is off some, He could steal award with strong game.
SF Steve: The MVP prop is always popular and figures to come down to Manning vs. everyone else. At 1-1 odds, there just doesn't seem to be enough value, or drama for that matter in betting the Indy QB. A few of my sleepers are Hester, Sanders, and Urlacher.
Player to Score the 1st Touchdown?
Aaron Morehead (INDIANAPOLIS) 18-1
Bernard Berrian (CHICAGO) 10-1
Bryan Fletcher (INDIANAPOLIS) 18-1
Cedric Benson (CHICAGO) 9-1
Dallas Clark (INDIANAPOLIS) 10-1
Desmond Clark (CHICAGO) 15-1
Devon Hester (CHICAGO) 25-1
Dominic Rhodes (INDIANAPOLIS) 12-1
John Gilmore (CHICAGO) 25-1
Joseph Addai (INDIANAPOLIS) 7-1
Marvin Harrison (INDIANAPOLIS) 7-1
Muhsin Muhammad (CHICAGO) 10-1
Peyton Manning (INDIANAPOLIS) 18-1
Rashied Davis (CHICAGO) 18-1
Reggie Wayne (INDIANAPOLIS) 7-1
Rex Grossman (CHICAGO) 30-1
Terrence Wilkins (INDIANAPOLIS) 40-1
Thomas Jones (CHICAGO) 7-1
zx Field (Any Other Player) 7-1
zx No TD scored on the game 75-1
SF Doug: I'm throwing my support to one Thomas Jones to bring me home a winner. I'll even say just about halfway through second quarter and less the five yards.
SF Steve: I can't explain why, but I can never stay away from this prop. It's so exciting when a team is in the red zone for the first time. Some of my favorites for this year's game that I will be considering are Benson, Clark, Rhodes, Manning, and field (a defensive player).
StatFox: Well…I think that’s enough for the day. This was one of our biggest Scuffles ever. Do you guys have anything else for our readers before we sign off?
SF Doug: Just best wishes for a profitable Super Bowl Sunday. It sure makes the game a whole lot more fun to watch when you win a few of these! Good luck to you too Steve, if it’s anything like last year, you’ll need it.
SF Steve: Appreciate that Doug…I’m looking forward to putting on a few pounds in food and beverages. Always makes for a great day. Sure wish we were going out to LA again this year…
posted by phantom
Feb. 2 2007 2:22pm -
0 likes
Fezzik posts these plays for free:
2 UNITS Bears +7 or more
2 UNITS Colts Under 10 1st Quarter
__________________
posted by phantom
Feb. 2 2007 3:13pm -
0 likes
DR. BOB
Chicago is a 2-Star at +7 at -1.15 odds or less.
2 Star Selection
**Chicago (+7) 23 Indianapolis 24 (at Miami)
03:15 PM Pacific, 04-Feb-07
The pointspread in the Super Bowl is determined by public perception more than a normal NFL game because more amateur money is going to be placed on this game than on any other game all season. Public perception concerning this game is that the Bears’ defense isn’t as strong as it was earlier in the season because of injuries to safety Mike Brown and defensive tackle Tommie Harris. The public also feels that the return of Colts’ safety Bob Sanders has transformed a mediocre defense into a good unit. Those two theories combine to make the Colts a 7 point favorite in this game, which is simply too high.
Chicago’s defense has not been hurt at all by the losses of Brown or Harris and the Bears’ poor late-season performances, in which they allowed 26.3 points on 5.2 yards per play in their final 4 regular season, was a function of playing all 4 of those games without either starting cornerback Nathan Vasher (missed weeks 14 and 15) or the other star corner Charles Tillman (missed week 16 and 17) – as well as being without strong safety Todd Johnson for that stretch (he only played sparingly in one of the final 5 games). The Bears’ run defense is actually better than their season average in 6 games since losing Harris, allowing 3.8 ypr to teams that would combine to average 4.0 ypr against an average defensive team (they’re exactly average against the run for the season). The Bears lost Mike Brown in week 7 and the pass defense rated exactly the same (1.0 yards per pass play better than average) from weeks 8 through 13 (when both Vasher and Tillman were healthy) as it did from weeks 1 through 7 with Brown. So the key to Chicago’s defense is not Brown or Harris, but rather having both of their high quality cornerbacks playing at the same time so the safeties can blitz or focus more on defending the run. Chicago’s run defense is just average for the season (4.1 ypr allowed to teams that would combine to average 4.1 ypr against an average team), but their pass defense has allowed only 4.9 yards per pass play with both starting corners playing (against teams that would combine to average 5.8 yppp against an average defensive team). The Colts’ attack was slightly worse than average running the ball this season (4.2 ypr against teams that would combine to allow 4.3 ypr to an average team) while Peyton Manning has averaged 7.4 yppp against teams that would allow 5.9 yppp to an average quarterback. Overall, the Colts are 0.8 yards per play better than average for the season offensively and they have the advantage against a Bears’ defense that rates at 0.5 yppl better than average with their current personnel.
The Colts defense has certainly been better in the playoffs than they were in the regular season and most people give credit to the return of safety Bob Sanders. However, Sanders also played in 4 regular season games and the Colts were actually worse than normal in those games and the Indy defense has allowed 5.5 yppl in the 7 games that Sanders has been healthy (including the 3 playoff games) - against teams that would combine to average 5.3 yppl against an average defensive team. Indianapolis is also 0.2 yppl worse than average defensively for the season so Sanders is certainly not the reason for the Colts’ recent improved play defensively. The credit for the improvement should go to veteran linebacker Rob Morris, who has racked up 54 tackles in his 8 starts this year. The Colts’ normally horrible run defense was not so bad with the sure tackling Morris starting, as Indy – which allowed 5.2 ypr for the season – has only yielded 4.2 ypr in 8 games with Morris starting (against teams that would average 4.0 ypr against an average team). The Indianapolis pass defense has been good all season, allowing 5.7 yppp to teams that would combine to average 6.1 yppp against an average defensive unit, but the pass defense has been even better in Morris’ 8 starts (5.6 yppp allowed to teams that would average 6.3 yppp). Overall, the Colts rate at 0.3 yppl better than average with Morris in the lineup and Chicago’s attack rates at 0.3 yppl worse than average with quarterback Rex Grossman on the field (5.1 yppl against teams that would allow 5.4 yppl to an average offensive team). Grossman’s main detractors sight his 21 interceptions, but Grossman’s most of his interceptions all came in just 6 games while he was interception free in 9 of 18 games and threw only 1 pick or fewer in 12 of 18 games – so Grossman is not likely to throw more than 1 interception in this game.
If I assume that the Indianapolis defense is really as good as they’ve been in Morris’ other 8 starts then my math model projects the Colts with a 347 yards (at 5.5 yppl) to 283 yards (at 4.6 yppl) in this game. Indianapolis also has a 1.7 points advantage in projected turnovers, but Chicago has a HUGE edge in special teams. The Bears’ explosive return man Devin Hester, who had a record 6 return TD’s this season, should give the Bears excellent field position against a Colts team that allows a horrible 13.0 yards per punt return and has allowed an average starting position of the 30 yard line on kickoffs this season (not including onside kicks). Chicago’s Brad Maynard averages a better than average 37.9 net yards per punt while the Colts average 34.9 net punting (mostly because their coverage is so bad). The Bears, with Hester returning punts, allow a net of just 35.0 yards on punts while the Colts allow 37.3 net punting, which is a bit worse than average. I project the starting yard line on kickoffs at the 25 yard line for the Colts and the 32 yard line for the Bears and that difference is worth more than you think it is. Chicago only out-gained their opponents by an average of 29 yards per game this season yet they out-scored their foes by an average of 11.1 points per game – so don’t underestimate the affect that their superior special teams may have on this game. Overall the Bears have an enormous 3.4 points edge in special teams and my math model favors the Colts by just 4 points even assuming that their defense really is improved when there is a chance that that improvement is nothing more than random variance (especially given that the Colts allowed 5.5 yppl in their Championship game win to a Patriots team that would average 5.3 yppl on the road against an average defensive team). If the Colts’ recent defensive improvement is indeed a mirage then my math model would favor Indy by just 1 ½ points. Since I’m considering the Bears for a play I’ll assume that the Colts are actually improved defensively (it’s always best to be conservative when considering a bet).
I’m sure that the oddsmakers also know that the Colts should be favored by no more than 4 points on a neutral field over the Bears but they are forced to make the line higher based on the tendency of the public to bet on the favorite in the Super Bowl. That tendency comes from the memory of a series of Super Bowl blowouts from the mid-80’s to the mid-90’s when the average margin of victory in the Super Bowl was 23 points over a 12 year stretch from 1984 through 1995. There is certainly a long history of blowout wins in Championship games going back to the pre-Super Bowl days and that phenomenon is more than just statistical variance. Unlike in regular season games, when teams in control often relax, teams on the verge of a championship victory tend to maintain their high intensity level. Respect of the opposition and the fear of the “brass ringâ€Â
posted by phantom
Feb. 2 2007 3:15pm -
0 likes
Marc Lawrence
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Bears (colts by 3)
__________________
posted by phantom
Feb. 2 2007 3:17pm -
0 likes
Animal.........52-55...(6-7)...4*Chicago,3*Under
AceMan.......25-22...(1-1)...4*Under
ASA..............16-20...(1-3)...3*Chicago
APlay............17-35...(0-1)...10*Chicago
Alatex...........3-4.................Pass
ATS..............35-43...(6-2)...5%Indy,3%Over
BermansPicks.24-43...(3-3)...Chicago
Blazer...........22-22...(6-2)...3*Indy
CarolinaSports.16-21...(0-3)...OP-Indy
BobCash.....32-33...(5-4)...10*Indy
DaveCokin..41-33...(3-3)...NoReport
Doc'sEnt......31-40...(5-6)...4*Chicago+Under
DrBob...........22-26...(1-2)...2*Chicago
Executive.....22-23...(2-2)...300%Chicago
JimFeist.......37-40...(2-3)...NoReport
GoldSheet....34-29...(2-5)...Reg-Chicago+Over
GSlamSports..36-35...(5-4)...TriplePlay-Indy,DoublePlay-Under
InsideInfo.....20-26...(3-1)...1*Chicago
JBSports.....31-22...(3-0)...3*Indy
JerseyGiant..29-22...(2-0)...Indy
LineMovers...38-28...(3-1)...Chicago
KelsoSturgeon..32-42...(2-5)...20*Chicago,5*Under
MainGate......20-23......(1-1)...15*Chicago
MikeNeri.......12-25...(2-3)...Props Below
NorthCoast..24-43...(3-4)...3*Indy,OP-Over
OffshoreEdge..39-33...(4-6)...Indy
PhillyFour.....44-42...+5000..(7-7)+1400...20$Indy,10$Under
Pointwise....39-43...(4-5)...OP-Chicago
PowerPlays...34-22...(4-4)...10*Indy
PrefPicks.....29-20...(2-2)...OP-Chicago
PrivatePlayers..41-33...(10-5)...3*Chicago+Over
RandyRadke..23-34...(4-3)...Chicago
Raider..........26-23...(3-4)...5*Indy+Under
ReedHarris...41-30...(5-5)...10*Indy+Over
Rocky'sWinner..17-28...(1-3)...30*Chicago,15*Under
ScotSprietzer...35-38...(4-2)...NoReport
Sycamore....27-28...(5-4)...Chicago+Over
DtBobSchoner...30-26...(2-4)...Indy+Over
LenSteven...61-48...(6-4)...10*Chicago+Over
Score.............30-25...(3-5)...400%Chicago
Underdog....5-9...(1-0)...PASS
UnderTaker...35-25...(3-1)...Chicago/Under
SportsUnlimited..18-20...(1-0)...3%Under
WayneRoot...52-44...(3-5)...Million-Indy
WildCat..........20-26...(1-5)...7*Under
Added Services........
BigAL.............27-24...(5-3)...3*Chicago+Over
SpecialK..............................10*Chicago
CalSports.............................4*Chicago
PROPS............................................. .............
MikeNeri.............5*YES there will be a score last 2Min. 1st half
4*More Points scored 2nd half.........................
LennyStevens....Total Sacks under3½
Grossman under 211 yards passing
Bears +3 3rd quarter
JerseyGiant........Rex Grossman Under 28½ passing attempts
Rex Grossman Under 16½ completions
Peyton Manning -77½ yards passing over Grossman
__________________
posted by phantom
Feb. 4 2007 4:33pm -
0 likes
1. Ats 5-ind, 3-over
2. Bankers 300-chi
3. Big Money Chi
4. Blazer 3-ind
5. Carolina Sports 3-over
6. Friends Of Mike Lee 6-ind
7. Doc Enterprises 4-chi & Under
8. Dr. Bob 2-chi
9. Gameday 2-chi
10. Inside Info 3-ind & Under
11. J.b. Reg: Ind
12. Lenny Stevens 2 10-chi & Over
13. Headquarters 5-chi & Over
14. Lt Profits 3 2-chi
15. Wildcat 7-under
16. Preferred Picks 1 3-chi
17. Nationwide (goldst) Reg: Chi & Over
18. Neri 3-chi & Under
19. Private Players 3-chi & Over
20. Score 400-chi
21. Sycamore Chi & Over
22. Underdog Pass
23. Northcoast 3-ind
24. Pointwise 3-chi
25. A-play 10-chi & Over
posted by phantom
Feb. 4 2007 4:35pm -
0 likes
Nevada sports 2* indy
Reno Totals 5* over
dave cokin......da bears
pac star top 7* da bears
posted by phantom
Feb. 4 2007 4:35pm -
0 likes
Dave Malinsky
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
4* INDIANAPOLIS over CHICAGO
It is time to take advantage of a surprising blink by the betting markets and step in and lay the -6.5’s that are becoming available on this one.
The history of Tony Dungy, Peyton Manning and the Colts has been one of brilliant performances during the regular season, only to come up short at playoff time. As such there was the usual reputation being built of “not being able to win the big oneâ€
posted by phantom
Feb. 4 2007 4:39pm -
0 likes
Madden NFL 07
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
powered by EA Sports.
With a late TD by the COLTS. 38-27.
posted by phantom
Feb. 4 2007 4:40pm -
0 likes
PEYTON MANNING Total Passing Yards?
OVER 263½-155
UNDER 263½+125
SF Doug: UNDER - Don't see Chicago giving up enough big plays for Manning surpass this total. Chicago has time of possesion and limits the number of times Colts have the ball.
SF Steve: There are two positives to the equation if you take the UNDER 263-1/2 yards with Manning. First, he only exceeded that number in nine of 16 games in the regular season, and second, I'm sure Dungy would rather see a balanced attack on Sunday.
What will PEYTON MANNING Throw First?
TD -200
INT +160
SF Doug: Touchdown will come first, even though the Bears will have a couple of close ones in the first half.
SF Steve: Playing in the biggest game of his life, the current best quarterback in football might not throw any interceptions. Therefore, the -200 offering on TD would figure to be the better play. His regular season TD:Int ratio was 31:9, well justifying the -200.
PEYTON MANNING Total Completions?
OVER 22½-115
UNDER 22½-115
SF Doug: UNDER - Because of the aforementioned ball control, Manning will be one or two short of making this number in the Super Bowl.
SF Steve: The oddsmakers plucked this prop right from the season statistics, as Manning averaged 22.6 completions per game. Do you think the Colts will have to pass to win? If so, Manning probably exceeds the 22-1/2. If not, go with the under.
PEYTON MANNING Total Interceptions?
OVER ½-170
UNDER ½+140
SF Doug: OVER - Chicago defensive backs have good hands and will pick one off for that reason alone.
SF Steve: You only get 20 cents more on the dollar if you bet Manning to throw a pick before a TD, so if you do believe a Chicago interception is in the cards for Sunday, then by all means, extend your chances with this much more reasonable +140 payout.
PEYTON MANNING Total Rushing Yards
OVER 1½+110
UNDER 1½-140
SF Doug: The fleet-footed Manning will run by this number and double the amount all the way to three yards. Only way he doesn't is kneel downs at the end.
SF Steve: Neither of the quarterbacks in SB XLI are what you'd call "fleet of foot". Before you go putting parts of your livelihood down on Manning falling forward for two yards, recognize that he rarely runs for more than a sneak, and kneel downs are -2 to his total.
JOSEPH ADDAI Total Rushing Attempts?
OVER 15½+100
UNDER 15½-130
SF Doug: UNDER- Might be the easiest of all the props. Addai has done great work all year, however Dominic Rhodes has been great change of pace and will see earlier action.
SF Steve: Addai's workload has been inconsistent at best this season, and he exceeded the 15-1/2 carry mark just seven times in the regular season. However, the Colts have a new found love for running the ball, averaging 34 attempts in last four. OVER 15.5
JOSEPH ADDAI Total Rushing Yards?
OVER 62½+105
UNDER 62½-135
SF Doug: UNDER- Bears will stifle Addai and have more trouble with Rhodes, especially in the second half.
SF Steve: Although the Colts have rededicated themselves to running the ball recently, they're still only averaging 3.8 YPR during that stretch. Things won't get easier against the stout Bears defense. Sharing the load, Addai will go UNDER 62.5.
JOSEPH ADDAI Total Receptions?
OVER 2½-115
UNDER 2½-115
SF Doug: OVER - Averaged 2.5 during regular season and will be safety valve when protection breaks down.
SF Steve: Addai's caught 40 of 53 balls thrown his way during the regular season. While an impressive ratio, that only works out to less than 3-1/2 looks per game. It would be a stretch for Manning to go to him more than that in the Super Bowl.
JOSEPH ADDAI Total Receiving Yards?
OVER 17½-115
UNDER 17½-115
SF Doug: OVER - On the presumption he makes three catches, he averages 8 yards per reception.
SF Steve: The way with which the Colts utilized Addai in the passing game this season was very inconsistent. This bet and the one on Rhodes will clearly come down to the pressure Chicago gets on Manning and his need to uitilize running backs.
DOMINIC RHODES Total Rushing Attempts?
OVER 12½-140
UNDER 12½+110
SF Doug: OVER- He'll see more first half action then other playoff games and should end up around 15 for the game.
SF Steve: Like the Chevy commercial and Bob Seger's popular song, the veteran Rhodes figures to be "Like a Rock" for Dungy and Manning on Sunday. I would expect the Colts to utilize Rhodes more heavily than usual on Sunday. Over 12.5.
DOMINIC RHODES Total Rushing Yards?
OVER 48½-115
UNDER 48½-115
SF Doug: OVER - Will just nudge over this number in the last carry or two against Bears run defense.
SF Steve: I find it interesting that Rhodes' yardage prop is 3.9 times greater than his rushing attempts prop. Why? Because he only averaged 3.4 yards per carry during the regular season. It's difficult to see him finding much space in the Bears defense. Under 48.5.
DOMINIC RHODES Total Receptions?
OVER 2-115
UNDER 2-115
SF Doug: UNDER- Addai will play more in passing situations, because he is more accomplished blocker and has better understanding of passing game.
SF Steve: Coaches turn to veterans in the big games, and if such is the case for Indianapolis on Sunday, you'd figure that Rhodes will get a chance to catch a few passes. During the season, he caught 36. You should get at least a push with an OVER 2 play.
DOMINIC RHODES Total Receiving Yards?
OVER 18½-120
UNDER 18½-110
SF Doug: UNDER - Averages 7 yards a catch, thus if he has less then two catches, logic dictates he'll go under number.
SF Steve: Have you ever focused on Brian Urlacher's pass defense on running backs. He's all over them when they catch the ball. Unlike Addai, Rhodes doesn't possess the speed to beat Urlacher for a big play. He'd probably have to catch 4-5 passes to beat 18.5 yards.
MARVIN HARRISON Total Receptions?
OVER 5½-115
UNDER 5½-115
SF Doug: OVER- In the biggest game of his life Manning will be sure to go to favorite receiver as often as possible, be it short or long throws.
SF Steve: Those focusing on Manning finally making it to the Super Bowl musn't overlook Harrison, another well-decorated veteran player who is on the big stage for the first time. He figures to be the target of at least a dozen passes. Six catches is very realistic. Over 5.5.
MARVIN HARRISON Total Receiving Yards?
OVER 76½+115
UNDER 76½-145
SF Doug: OVER- Harrison will be around 100 yards with his six or seven catches on the day.
SF Steve: Harrison and Reggie Wayne share the same yardage prop for this year's Super Bowl. Considering the rich history between the two, Manning figures to rely on Harrison heavily, and he went over 76 yards 10 times in the regular season.
REGGIE WAYNE Total Receptions?
OVER 5-135
UNDER 5+105
SF Doug: UNDER- Chicago is good at taking away underneath throws and fears Wayne's after the catch running ability. If he doesn't have the ball, he can't hurt them.
SF Steve: Of the two Colts' wide receivers, Wayne is the one capable of making bigger plays down the field, but he is also younger. This means he isn’t targeted as frequently as Harrison. In the second half of the season, he was targeted less than 8 times per game.
REGGIE WAYNE Total Receiving Yards?
OVER 76½-115
UNDER 76½-115
SF Doug: UNDER- Expecting total of four receptions, two short and two medium range for about 65 yards total.
SF Steve: Wayne's yards per reception went down steadily over the course of the season, as the big plays that were there early just weren't anymore. With the Bears defense yielding just 5.5 yards per pass attempt, I don't suspect many Sunday. Under 76.5.
DALLAS CLARK Total Receptions?
OVER 4+140
UNDER 4-170
SF Doug: OVER - Proved his value in AFC title game and will be key factor if Colts win. Getting open down the middle is his specialty.
SF Steve: Clark made some huge catches for the Colts in the playoffs and with fellow TE Ben Utecht being questionable for the Super Bowl because of a knee injury, Manning will probably rely on Clark even more on Sunday. Look for an OVER 4.
DALLAS CLARK Total Receiving Yards?
OVER 50½+135
UNDER 50½-165
SF Doug: OVER - His five catches will result is 62 yards his season average.
SF Steve: This is an interesting prop only in the fact that the price for wanting under 50-1/2 yards comes with such a steep price (-165). Can I take 49-1/2 yards for a -115 price? If so I would. With the way it is now though, the OVER at +135 could be worth a look.
REX GROSSMAN Total Passing Yards?
OVER 198½-155
UNDER 198½+125
SF Doug: OVER - If Chicago is going to have realistic chance Grossman will have to throw for over 200 yards. He throws deep out well and this is open against Colts Cover 2.
SF Steve: The StatFox Estimator projects Chicago to pass for only 163 yards, of course, after sacks. So assuming this adjusted projection for Grossman's yardage is around 175, that still leaves 23-1/2 yards to spare. I think this is a safe under 198-1/2 play.
What will REX GROSSMAN Throw First?
TD -130
INT +100
SF Doug: Interception by default, since I see him making throws bringing the Bears near the goal line, where they end up running it in.
SF Steve: Unlike his counterpart in Sunday's game, Grossman didn’t have the most stellar of TD:Int ratios at 23:20. Remember how badly Ben Roethlisberger played in last year's win? There's a chance Rex could go without a TD and still be victorious.
REX GROSSMAN Total Completions?
OVER 17½-110
UNDER 17½-120
SF Doug: OVER- This will demand patience, as potentially 40 percent of his completions will come in the final stanza.
SF Steve: In his last nine games, Grossman only exceeded the 17-1/2 completion benchmark three times. In addition, in the Bears' last five spread covering wins, he averaged only 11.2 completions. It's a good bet that the Bears don't want to exceed this total.
REX GROSSMAN Total Interceptions?
OVER 1-125
UNDER 1-105
SF Doug: OC Ron Turner will demand patience from former Florida QB, and have him throwing it away before tossing it up for grabs. Slight lean toward Under.
SF Steve: Fellow youngster Roethlisberger turned the ball over a couple of times in the '06 Super Bowl, but I imagine even he wasn't as cognisant of it as Grossman will be on Sunday. Rex's play in the playoffs was VERY heady & conservative. This bet will probably push.
REX GROSSMAN Total Rushing Yards?
OVER 1+130
UNDER 1-160
SF Doug: UNDER - He'll be sacked often enough where this will be an easy winner.
SF Steve: Grossman rushed for 2 yards in the regular season. Let me repeat…TWO yards. However, I still get the feeling he has a good chance to make a nice play escaping the pocket on an outside rush by Freeney. I'll look for five yards from King Rex.
THOMAS JONES Total Rushing Attempts?
OVER 17½-120
UNDER 17½-110
SF Doug: UNDER - His determination will earn his the majority of the carries, yet if Chicago trails into the fourth quarter the running attack will become less important.
SF Steve: The problem with both the Colts and Bears for these running back props is that not only do you have to worry about figuring out how well the team will be able to run the ball, you also have to project the split workload. In which case, under is the way to err.
THOMAS JONES Total Rushing Yards?
OVER 78½+105
UNDER 78½-135
SF Doug: UNDER - If he has about 15 carries at five yards a pop, this equals 75 total yards, making this below the total.
SF Steve: Although I feel Thomas Jones is fully capable of having a strong game against the Colts, I fear the pattern of carry distribution that developed in the latter part of the season and playoffs. Jones could go a quarter at a time and get only a couple chances.
THOMAS JONES Total Receptions?
OVER 2+100
UNDER 2-130
SF Doug: Unless Chicago runs screens of which Grossman is not terribly accurate, Jones will not be involved in passing game.
SF Steve: Jones caught 36 passes in the regular season but just 11 in the last eight games. His workload simply dropped as Cedric Benson became more a part of the offense. Grossman doesn't use his back in the passing game real well either. Under 2.
THOMAS JONES Total Receiving Yards?
OVER 9-120
UNDER 9-110
SF Doug: UNDER - Averages 4.3 yards per catch, any need to go further?
SF Steve: Combining the fact that Jones averaged just 4.3 yards per catch during the regular season, and that I don't think he will be utilized heavily on Sunday, I see no way to go other than under 9 miniscule receiving yards for the veteran running back.
CEDRIC BENSON Total Rushing Attempts?
OVER 12½-140
UNDER 12½+110
SF Doug: Really a tough call, depending how hard Benson plays, which sounds absurd, yet has proven to be correct. I'll go Under, with even dozen attempts not shocking.
SF Steve: The StatFox Estimator projects Chicago to run the ball 30 times. I already projected Jones to get fewer than his posted 17-1/2 carries. That leaves at least 13 attempts to be gobbled up by Benson, and his workload has increased as the year wore on. Over.
CEDRIC BENSON Total Rushing Yards?
OVER 49½-135
UNDER 49½+105
SF Doug: OVER- With Bears offensive line, thinking about five yards a touch. Do the math, 12 x 5 = 60 yards.
SF Steve: The Colts haven't faced a legitimate 1-2 running punch since they gave up 375 yards to Jacksonville in December. While expecting that type of performance from Chicago would be way overzealous, expecting the bruiser Benson to eclipse 50 yards isn't. Over.
CEDRIC BENSON Total Receptions?
OVER 1+105
UNDER 1-135
SF Doug: UNDER- With eight catches during the regular season, he proved his value as receiver.
SF Steve: Benson doesn't catch many passes, in fact, only eight during the regular seasons. His strong suit is pounding the football. I wouldn't expect Chicago and OC Ron Turner to utilize him in any different capacity on Sunday. One catch tops for CB.
CEDRIC BENSON Receiving Yards?
OVER 7½+110
UNDER 7½-140
SF Doug: If ZERO is Under, then I got myself a winner.
SF Steve: This is another prop plucked right from the season averages. Benson averaged about 7 yards per reception this year. If you expect the Bears to use him in the passing game, 7-1/2 yards can be picked up in an instant. If not, under is the way to go.
MUHSIN MUHAMMAD Total Receptions?
OVER 3½-115
UNDER 3½-115
SF Doug: Most important offensive player other then Grossman. If he has big game Chicago will be taking home hardware for first time since 1985.
SF Steve: From the looks of it, linesmakers aren't expecting a real big game from Muhammad. That could be a big mistake, as Muhsin is one of the few players on the Bears' roster with Super Bowl experience. Look for a handful or more catches from him.
MUHSIN MUHAMMAD Total Receiving Yards?
OVER 46½-125
UNDER 46½-105
SF Doug: OVER- Veteran receiver understands Dungy defense after all those years in Carolina facing Tampa Bay twice a year. Closer to 80 yards receiving than this total.
SF Steve: Although Muhammad isn't considered the "big play" receiver in the Bears' lineup, he still averaged 14.4 yards per reception during the regular season. If he does indeed get five catches, he's crafty enough to easily surpass the 46-1/2 yard prop.
BERNARD BERRIAN Total Receptions?
OVER 4½-140
UNDER 4½+110
SF Doug: UNDER - Does not seem the type of game he will be most effective. Will only get better, just wrong type of defense and game for him to be max effective.
SF Steve: Berrian is clearly the flavor of the month for oddsmakers when compared to Muhammad. Also the latter caught nine balls more during the season, Berrian is playing to the higher catch total prop. BB caught no more than six balls in game. Under.
BERNARD BERRIAN Total Receiving Yards?
OVER 65½-115
UNDER 65½-115
SF Doug: UNDER – This is another number that could be very close, since he will have at least one catch of 20+ yards. It just won’t be enough to fly over this total.
SF Steve: For me, the yardage prop is more difficult to project for a receiver like Berrian than the receptions. As he showed in the playoffs, Berrian can go over 65-1/2 yards on a single catch if the Bears hit a big one. I'll pass knowing I could get beat by one play.
DESMOND CLARK Total Receptions?
OVER 2-130
UNDER 2+100
SF Doug: If Grossman is to throw for over 200 yards, Clark must account for 25 percent. He's a big target with average hands who must come through. Count on him to go Over.
SF Steve: Besides the looks Clark got throughout the season in the red zone, Grossman seemed to be utilizing his tight end on a seam play often in the postseason. Unless someone knows something I don't, two seems like a ridiculously low catch total for Clark.
DESMOND CLARK Total Receiving Yards?
OVER 33½-125
UNDER 33½-105
SF Doug: OVER - It's 50 yards or bust for Clark, who must be large factor for Chicago to compete or possibly win Super Bowl.
SF Steve: The oddsmakers missed on either the receptions or the yardage with Clark. Apparently, he should get 2 catches for 33 yards, an average of 16.5 per catch. That's high for a tight end. I'll stick with the receptions over and stay away from this one.
ADAM VINATIERI Total Points Made/ FG=3, XPTS=1?
OVER 7½-135
UNDER 7½+105
SF Doug: UNDER - Three extra points and field goal are six points no matter how you do the math. Fortunately I didn't need to go beyond ten fingers to calculate this total.
SF Steve: I go back to the end zone trouble that Indianapolis had been experiencing prior to the second half of the AFC title game. The Bears defense is going to be tough to break. However, they may bend, leading to multiple FG attempts for Vinatieri. Over 7.5.
ROBBIE GOULD Total Points Made/ FG=3, XPTS=1?
OVER 8½+140
UNDER 8½-170
SF Doug: UNDER - Just misses with two field goals and two extra points. Fanatasy players getting extra points for long kicks should benefit.
SF Steve: Gould scored 8.9 PPG during the regular season to lead the league. However, being the underdog in this game, the Bears figure to get fewer scoring chances than Indy. With Gould's total being higher than Vinatieri's, I gotta stay away.
Odds to Win 2007 Super Bowl MVP
Adam Vinatieri (INDIANAPOLIS) 9-1
Bernard Berrian (CHICAGO) 12-1
Bob Sanders (INDIANAPOLIS) 30-1
Brian Urlacher (CHICAGO) 10-1
Cedric Benson (CHICAGO) 10-1
Dallas Clark (INDIANAPOLIS) 25-1
Devin Hester (CHICAGO) 20-1
Dominic Rhodes (INDIANAPOLIS) 15-1
Joseph Addai (INDIANAPOLIS) 8-1
Marvin Harrison (INDIANAPOLIS) 9-1
Muhsin Muhammad (CHICAGO) 18-1
Peyton Manning (INDIANAPOLIS) 1-1
Reggie Wayne (INDIANAPOLIS) 12-1
Rex Grossman (CHICAGO) 5-1
Robbie Gould (CHICAGO) 12-1
Terrence Wilkins (INDIANAPOLIS) 30-1
Thomas Jones (CHICAGO) 8-1
SF Doug: Seeing Manning's odds are waste of time, I'll try Marvin Harrison who is around 100 yards receiving. If Manning is off some, He could steal award with strong game.
SF Steve: The MVP prop is always popular and figures to come down to Manning vs. everyone else. At 1-1 odds, there just doesn't seem to be enough value, or drama for that matter in betting the Indy QB. A few of my sleepers are Hester, Sanders, and Urlacher.
Player to Score the 1st Touchdown?
Aaron Morehead (INDIANAPOLIS) 18-1
Bernard Berrian (CHICAGO) 10-1
Bryan Fletcher (INDIANAPOLIS) 18-1
Cedric Benson (CHICAGO) 9-1
Dallas Clark (INDIANAPOLIS) 10-1
Desmond Clark (CHICAGO) 15-1
Devon Hester (CHICAGO) 25-1
Dominic Rhodes (INDIANAPOLIS) 12-1
John Gilmore (CHICAGO) 25-1
Joseph Addai (INDIANAPOLIS) 7-1
Marvin Harrison (INDIANAPOLIS) 7-1
Muhsin Muhammad (CHICAGO) 10-1
Peyton Manning (INDIANAPOLIS) 18-1
Rashied Davis (CHICAGO) 18-1
Reggie Wayne (INDIANAPOLIS) 7-1
Rex Grossman (CHICAGO) 30-1
Terrence Wilkins (INDIANAPOLIS) 40-1
Thomas Jones (CHICAGO) 7-1
zx Field (Any Other Player) 7-1
zx No TD scored on the game 75-1
SF Doug: I'm throwing my support to one Thomas Jones to bring me home a winner. I'll even say just about halfway through second quarter and less the five yards.
SF Steve: I can't explain why, but I can never stay away from this prop. It's so exciting when a team is in the red zone for the first time. Some of my favorites for this year's game that I will be considering are Benson, Clark, Rhodes, Manning, and field (a defensive player).
StatFox: Well…I think that’s enough for the day. This was one of our biggest Scuffles ever. Do you guys have anything else for our readers before we sign off?
SF Doug: Just best wishes for a profitable Super Bowl Sunday. It sure makes the game a whole lot more fun to watch when you win a few of these! Good luck to you too Steve, if it’s anything like last year, you’ll need it.
SF Steve: Appreciate that Doug…I’m looking forward to putting on a few pounds in food and beverages. Always makes for a great day.
posted by phantom
Feb. 4 2007 4:40pm -
0 likes
HOT SUPERBOWL SERVICES :
Update: SUPER SUNDAY
BURNS ( 9-1 ):*9-0 lifetime in SuperBowl picks.
Chicago/ Indy UNDER
MALINSKY ( 3-1 ):
4* INDIANAPOLIS
SULLIVAN ( 8-2 ):
Other Services worth noting for SuperBowl XLI :
NESS:23* INDIANAPOLIS
Service Picks WITH Playoff records:
ATS (6-2) :INDY + OVER
DR. BOB (7-4):CHICAGO
MIGHTY QUINN (5-5):INDY
NORTHCOAST (11-7):CHICAGO* ( *INDY also posted, wait for confirm )
LANG ( 2-8 ):INDY + UNDER
LENNY STEVENS (6-4 ):20* CHIC + 10* OVER
posted by phantom
Feb. 4 2007 4:44pm -
0 likes
our friend ace ace
My Plays For The Super Bowl
Under 48 1/2...............................$900.00
Chi +7 ..........................................$250.00
alternate 1st Half
total 27 1/2 -230..................$460/$200
1st Q Total 10 Under-115.......$345/$300
The Best One Is
Peyton Manning Total
Interceptions Over 0.5 -170 $1020/$600
Adding A 3 Team 10 Point Teaser
Det Piston +9 1/2
Chi +16 1/2
Under 57 1/2...........................$600/$500
Best To All
ACE-ACE
posted by phantom
Feb. 4 2007 5:01pm -
0 likes
EGAS STEAM: UNDER BEARS, PROP BETS-OVER NATIONAL ANTHEM 1:42, OVER 3.5 FIELD GOALS, 1ST SCORE IS FG/SAFTY, MARVIN HARRISON UNDER 5.5 RECEPTIONS
BRANDON LANG: 100* COLTS
COMUTER KIDS: UNDER
DOC: 4 BEARS, UNDER
EXPERT: UNDER
FAB FOUR PICKS: COLTS
FINAL SCORE: BEARS
POWER PLAYS: COLTS
PRIVATOR INVESTORS: COLTS
RAIDER: COLTS, UNDER
REED HARRIS: COLTS, OVER
SLAM DUNK: COLTS:
SOLID GOLD PICKS: UNDER 1ST HALF
SPORTS ANALYST: WILL MANNING WIN MVP - NO (-127) --- WILL BEARS WIN BY 4-7 POINTS - YES (+1180)
SPORTS NETWORK: BEARS
SPORTS TRENDS: BEARS
SUPER SYSTEMS: GROSSMAN RUSH TD (+1300) --- MANNING SACKED OVER 1.5 (+103)
SUPER LOCK: BEARS
SWAMI: CHICAGO TO WIN BY 4-6 points (+1699) --- GROSSMAN UNDER 32.5 pass attempts (-102) ---- CHICAGO MUHAMMAD OVER 49.5 RECEIVING YARDS (-126)
THE INSIDER: 3 COLTS
TIPPS: COLTS
TOP DAWG: BEARS
TRULINE: BEARS
UNIVERSAL: UNDER
STU FINER: BEARS
HANK GOLDBEERG: COLTS
TEXAS SPORTSWIRE: 4 BEARS
BILLY HILL BIG GAME: GOY COLTS
HAWAII SPORTS WIRE: 7 COLTS
ALEX SMART: 2 UNDER
MIKE ROSE: 5 COLTS, OVER
ROCKETMAN SPORTS: 5* BEARS, UNDER BEARS
LARRY NESS: 23* COLTS
WAYNE ROOT: MILLIONAIRE-COLTS
KELSO STURGEON: 20* BEARS, 5* UNDER BEARS
LENNY STEVENS: 10* BEARS, OVER BEARS, PROPS: OVER 3.5 SACKS, GROSSMAN UNDER 211 YARDS PASSING, BEARS +3 IN SECOND QUARTER
CALIFORNIA SPORTS: BEARS
OVER/UNDER HOTLINE: TOP-UNDER BEARS
JB SPORTS: COLTS
LT PROFITS: 2* BEARS
SPECIAL K: 10* BEARS
MTI: 4* COLTS
posted by phantom
Feb. 4 2007 5:18pm -
0 likes
AJ Apollo
Super Bowl XLI Special (5* Best) Chicago Bears
ASA
Super Bowl XLI Regular Play (3*) Chicago Bears
ATS Football Lock Club
Super Bowl XLI Regular Plays (5 Units) Indianapolis Colts -6.5, (3 Units) Chicago/Indianapolis Over 47.5 and (2 Unit 2 Team Teaser) Indianapolis Colts -0.5 and Chicago/Indianapolis Over 41.5
Alex Smart
Super Bowl XLI Regular Play (3 Units) Chicago/Indianapolis Under, Proposition Card: Total Sacks Over 4 and Indianapolis Colts Under 22.5 1st Downs
Ben Burns Consulting
Super Bowl XLI Top Rated Play (Ben Burns' Best of the Best 9-0 Lifetime in Super Bowls) Chicago/Indianapolis Under
Bettors World Key Releases
Super Bowl XLI Regular Play (3*) Chicago Bears +7
Billy Hill
Super Bowl XLI Special (Big Game of the Year) Indianapolis Colts, Regular Plays (12.5*) Indianapolis Colts 1st Half -4 and (12*) Chicago/Indianapolis Over
Bobby Cash
Super Bowl XLI Top Rated Play (15*) Indianapolis Colts
Brandon Lang
Super Bowl XLI Special (100 Dimes) Indianapolis Colts (31-13 Predicted Final), Proposition Non-Rated Opinions: Reggie Wayne to Score the First TD, Chicago Bears as the 1st Team to Punt, Rex Grossman to Throw an Interception, Longest FG Over 44 Yards and Longest TD of the Game Over 45.5 Yards
Coaches Corner
Super Bowl XLI Top Rated Play Indianapolis Colts
Compu Sports
Super Bowl XLI Regular Play Chicago Bears
Doc Enterprises
Super Bowl XLI Regular Plays (4*) Chicago Bears and (4*) Chicago/Indianapolis Under
m to Receive DB's Sunday NFL Executive Report!
Dr. Bob
Super Bowl XLI Regular Play (2*) Chicago Bears at +7 Points or More (Downgrade to Strong Opinion at +7/-120 and to a Regular Opinion from +6.5 to +7/-125)
Fab Four Picks
Super Bowl XLI Top Rated Play Indianapolis Colts
Final Score Consulting
Super Bowl XLI Top Rated Play Chicago Bears
Fixer Wins
Super Bowl XLI Top Rated Play (5*) Chicago Bears
Frank Rosenthal
Super Bowl XLI Regular Play Chicago/Indianapolis Under 48 (Predicted Final Indianapolis 27 Chicago 20)
JB Sports
Super Bowl XLI Regular Play Indianapolis Colts
Jigsaw Sports
Super Bowl XLI Proposition Card: Top Rated Play (Best Bet) Peyton Manning Over 21 Completions, Regular Plays Longest FG Over 44 Yards, 1st Quarter Under 10 Points and Peyton Manning Over 269.5 Passing Yards
Jim Kruger
Super Bowl XLI Regular Play (3*) Chicago Bears
Ken Jenkins
Super Bowl XLI Regular Play (3*) 1ST HALF Chicago/Indianapolis Under 24
LT Profits
Super Bowl XLI Regular Play (2*) Chicago Bears
Larry Ness
Super Bowl XLI Top Rated Play (23* Side) Indianapolis Colts
Lem Banker
Super Bowl XLI Proposition Card: Regular Plays Chicago Bears Longest Run from Scrimmage, Indianapolis Colts Longest Touchdown Play, Chicago Bears Most 1st Downs and Indianapolis Colts Longest Pass Completion
Lenny Stevens
Super Bowl XLI Regular Plays (10*) Chicago Bears and (10*) Chicago/Indianapolis Over, Proposition Card: Total Sacks Over 3.5, Rex Grossman Under 211.5 Yards Passing and Chicago Bears +3 2nd Quarter
MTi Forecasting
Super Bowl XLI Top Rated Play (4*) Indianapolis Colts
Maxwell
Super Bowl XLI Top Rated Play Chicago Bears
Mike Rose
Super Bowl XLI Specials (5* Best) Indianapolis Colts and (5* Best) Chicago/Indianapolis Over, Proposition Card: Coin Toss Tails, Indianapolis +450 to Win by 13-18 Points, Peyton Manning as Super Bowl MVP, Peyton Manning Over 269.5 Passing Yards, Peyton Manning Longest Completion Over 37.5 Yards, Cedric Benson Under 12.5 Rushing Attempts, Thomas Jones Under 74.5 Rushing Yards and Yes to Chicago Bears Converting a 4th Down Attempt
NSA
Super Bowl XLI Top Rated Play (20* Sonny LaFouchi Wiseguy) Chicago Bears and Regular Play (10*) Chicago/Indianapolis Under
Norm Hitzges
Super Bowl XLI Top Rated Play (Double Play) Indianapolis Colts and Lean to Chicago/Indianapolis Over
Northcoast
Super Bowl XLI Phil Steele Proposition Card: Specials (Triple Play) Damien Rhodes Under 13 Rushing Attempts, (Triple Play) Peyton Manning Over 21 Pass Completions and (Triple Play) Rex Grossman Under 214 Yards Passing, Top Rated Plays (Double Play) Bernard Berrian Under 70 Receiving Yards, (Double Play) Dallas Clark Under 51 Receiving Yards and (Double Play) More Points in the 2nd Half (vs 1st Half), Regular Plays (Single Play) First Official Penalty/Must Be Accepted Indianapolis Colts, (Single Play) 1 Team Will Convert a 4th Down Attempt (No Action on No Attempts), (Single Play) Rex Grossman's 1st Pass Will Be a Completion, (Single Play) Mushim Muhammed Over 3 Receptions and (Single Play) Chicago Bears Over 18 1st Downs
Pacific Star Sports
Super Bowl XLI Special (7 Unit NFL Playoff Game of the Year) Chicago Bears and Regular Play (3*) Chicago/Indianapolis Under
Power Plays
Super Bowl XLI Top Rated Play (10*) Indianapolis Colts
Private Investors
Super Bowl XLI Regular Play Indianapolis Colts
Pro Source
Super Bowl XLI Regular Plays Chicago Bears and Chicago/Indianapolis Under
Pure Lock
Super Bowl XLI Top Rated Play Chicago Bears
R&R Totals
Super Bowl XLI Top Rated Play Chicago/Indianapolis Over
Raider
Super Bowl XLI Regular Plays Chicago Bears and Indianapolis/Chicago Under
Reed Harris
Super Bowl XLI Top Rated Plays Indianapolis Colts and Chicago/Indianapolis Over
Rocketman Sports
Super Bowl XLI Specials (5*) Chicago Bears and (5*) Chicago/Indianapolis Under
Slam Dunk Picks
Super Bowl XLI Top Rated Play Indianapolis Colts
Solid Gold Picks
Super Bowl XLI Top Rated Play 1ST HALF Chicago/Indianapolis Under
Special K
Super Bowl XLI Regular Play (10*) Chicago Bears
Stan Lisowski
Super Bowl XLI Top Rated Play (4*) Chicago/Indianapolis Under and Regular Play (3*) Chicago Bears
Steve Fezzik
Super Bowl XLI Regular Plays (2*) Chicago Bears +7 Points or More and (2*) 1ST QUARTER Indianapolis Colts Under 10 Points, Proposition Card: Regular Plays (1*) Indianapolis Colts Under 21.5 1st Downs, (1*) Indianapolis Colts to Have the 1st Turnover +120 and (1*) Bernard Berrian Under 67 Receiving Yards
Texas Sportswire
Super Bowl XLI Top Rated Play (4*) Chicago Bears
Stu Finer
Super Bowl XLI Special (Waive the Rating Pro Football Championship Game of the Year) Chicago Bears
Super Bowl XLI Fact Sheet
L11 SB's Favorite 8-3 SU/3-6-1 ATS. Teams Scoring 27 or More Points are 22-1 SU/20-2-1 ATS. Teams Scoring Less Than 20 Points are 0-22 SU/3-18-1 ATS. L13 SB Favorites to Score Less Than 30 Points are 1-11-1 ATS. SB Teams Who Outrush Their Opponent are 33-7 SU. SB Team with the Higher Scoring Offense is 12-3 SU L15 SB's. SB Underdogs are 7-3 ATS L10/4-1 ATS L5. SB Favorites Laying 7 or More Points 1-6-1 ATS L8 SB's.
The Computer Kids
Super Bowl XLI Top Rated Play Chicago/Indianapolis Under
The Sports Network
Super Bowl XLI Special (NFL Playoff Game of the Year) Chicago Bears
The Superlock Line
Super Bowl XLI Top Rated Play Chicago Bears
Tipps
Super Bowl XLI Top Rated Play Indianapolis Colts
Top Dawg Sports
Super Bowl XLI Regular Play Chicago Bears
Truline Sports
Super Bowl XLI Special (NFL Playoff Game of the Year) Chicago Bears
USA Sports
Super Bowl XLI Regular Play (5*) Chicago Bears
Uncle Mikey
Super Bowl XLI Regular Play Chicago/Indianapolis Under 49
Universal Sports
Super Bowl XLI Regular Play Chicago/Indianapolis Under
Vegas Pipeline
Super Bowl XLI Top Rated Play Indianapolis Colts
Wayne Root
Super Bowl XLI Top Rated Play (Millionaire's Club) Indianapolis Colts
Winning Angle Sports
Super Bowl XLI Top Rated Play Indianapolis Colts
Wizard
Super Bowl XLI Top Rated Play Indianapolis Colts
posted by phantom
Feb. 4 2007 5:18pm -
0 likes
By TIM SULLIVAN
February 4, 2007 -- Sure, you can throw caution to the wind - and money out the window - today by playing some of these ridiculous multi-sport proposition bets.
But keep in mind: With apologies to the Pro Bowl fans out there, all two of you, this is the final football game for eight months. Last call. End of the road. The grand finale.
So, on this, the day of days in the NFL, ask yourself: Do you really want to keep an eye on Vince Carter, Tiger Woods and Sidney Crosby?
We don't, which is why we won't waste time analyzing that Vinsanity's points vs. Atlanta is a 21/2-point favorite over the Super Bowl first-half scoring total. Or that Woods' fourth-round score at Dubai is a -140 choice over Bernard Berrian's receiving yards. Or that Sid The Kid's point total vs. the Canadiens is a half-point underdog to Peyton Manning's TD passes.
Sure, those bets may be cute to some, a conversation starter, if you will. But, unless you want to stay glued to a computer calculating scores all day, our advice is you stick to the biggest game of the year.
We know we will:
PLAYER TO SCORE FIRST TOUCHDOWN
Look for value and try to play both sides. You don't want to sell yourself short by picking a Colt just because you have the favorites, and vice versa.
Peyton Manning (12-1), at a great price, is our Indianapolis choice. The Bears are tough in short-yardage, and Tony Dungy may not want to risk a handoff on the goal line. Manning only has 13 rushing touchdowns in his nine seasons, but four of them came this year.
Cedric Benson (14-1) is too valuable to pass up for the Bears. We liken Benson (220 pounds) to Jacksonville's Maurice Jones-Drew (212). The Jaguars rookie ran for 166 yards and two touchdowns vs. the Colts Dec. 10. Benson just has to score first.
WORTH THE RISK
TEAM TO SCORE LONGEST TD: Bears (+115): Two words: Devin Hester. Plus, the Colts haven't scored from beyond 10 yards all postseason.
TOTAL SUCCESSFUL FIELD GOALS: Over 31/2 (+145): Price too good for two teams that have combined for 16 playoff FGs.
TOTAL SACKS: Under 41/2 (+100): Who can throw a ball out of bounds under pressure better than Rex Grossman and Manning?
WILL THERE BE A SAFETY? Yes (+700): Value unbelievable with two good punters. Ask Drew Brees about Brad Maynard's skills.
WILL THERE BE A SPECIAL TEAMS OR DEFENSIVE TOUCHDOWN? Yes (+160): Hester shines, or Grossman serves up a pick-six to Bob Sanders.
FIRST TEAM TO CALL A TIMEOUT: Bears (-110): QB who tries to call back-to-back timeouts in the NFC title game is worth shot.
TOTAL FUMBLES LOST: Over 11/2 (+115): Hard to believe this is the underdog here with the South Florida weather forecast.
TOTAL RECEPTIONS BY DALLAS CLARK: Under 31/2 (+100): Clark is getting a lot of press, but he roams the middle of the field. So does Brian Urlacher.
TOTAL RECEIVING YARDS BY DESMOND CLARK: Under 341/2 (-110): We're not high on TEs named Clark. This one will be hounded by Sanders.
TAKE A CHANCE
TEAM THAT SCORES FIRST WINS: No (+180). Remember the Buckeyes.
FIRST TURNOVER WILL BE: Fumble (+140). Remember the weather.
WILL BENSON SCORE A TOUCHDOWN? Yes (+170). Preferably, the first one of the game.
A SCORE IN THE LAST TWO MINUTES OF FIRST HALF? No (+210). The answer was "Yes" in four of the these two team's five playoff games. We're due for a "No."
_________________
posted by phantom
Feb. 4 2007 5:23pm -
0 likes
Psychic Sports
5 Star Chicago +7
3 Star Over 48
5 Props
1st Score Of Game Fg Or Safety +130
Pass Interceptions Over 2.5 +120
Will Any Player Score 2 Or More T.d Yes +150
Indy To Hav More Penalties +120
There Will Be A Score In The 1st 4.5 Minutes+180
posted by phantom
Feb. 4 2007 5:24pm