TRENDS FOR 2006 BOWL GAMES
College Football Trend Report
N ILLINOIS (7 - 5) vs. TCU (10 - 2) - 12/19/2006, 09:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TCU is 17-6 ATS (+10.4 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
TCU is 17-6 ATS (+10.4 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
TCU is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) as a favorite this season.
TCU is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) after playing a conference game over the last 2 seasons.
TCU is 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
TCU is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
BYU (10 - 2) vs. OREGON (7 - 5) - 12/21/2006, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BYU is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in games played on a grass field this season.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
TROY ST (7 - 5) vs. RICE (7 - 5) - 12/22/2006, 09:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
RICE is 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) after playing a conference game this season.
RICE is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) off a win against a conference rival over the last 2 seasons.
RICE is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
E CAROLINA (7 - 5) vs. S FLORIDA (8 - 4) - 12/23/2006, 02:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
E CAROLINA is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in all games this season.
E CAROLINA is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in all lined games this season.
E CAROLINA is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
E CAROLINA is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) when playing on a Saturday this season.
E CAROLINA is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
S FLORIDA is 1-0 against the spread versus E CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
S FLORIDA is 1-0 straight up against E CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
SAN JOSE ST (8 - 4) at NEW MEXICO (6 - 6) - 12/23/2006, 05:30 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
UTAH (7 - 5) vs. TULSA (8 - 4) - 12/23/2006, 09:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TULSA is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) in road games when playing on a Saturday over the last 2 seasons.
UTAH is 21-7 ATS (+13.3 Units) when playing with 2 weeks or more of rest since 1992.
UTAH is 21-9 ATS (+11.1 Units) after a bye week since 1992.
UTAH is 21-8 ATS (+12.2 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
ARIZONA ST (7 - 5) vs. HAWAII (10 - 3) - 12/24/2006, 09:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
HAWAII is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
MIDDLE TENN ST (7 - 5) vs. C MICHIGAN (9 - 4) - 12/26/2006, 08:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
C MICHIGAN is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) in all games this season.
C MICHIGAN is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) in all lined games this season.
C MICHIGAN is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) in games played on turf this season.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
FLORIDA ST (6 - 6) vs. UCLA (7 - 5) - 12/27/2006, 09:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
UCLA is 23-11 ATS (+10.9 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
UCLA is 23-11 ATS (+10.9 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
UCLA is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) after playing a conference game this season.
UCLA is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) in games played on a grass field this season.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
OKLAHOMA ST (6 - 6) vs. ALABAMA (6 - 6) - 12/28/2006, 05:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OKLAHOMA ST is 20-36 ATS (-19.6 Units) in road games after playing a conference game since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
KANSAS ST (7 - 5) vs. RUTGERS (10 - 2) - 12/28/2006, 09:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
KANSAS ST is 28-13 ATS (+13.7 Units) off a loss against a conference rival since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
TEXAS A&M (9 - 3) vs. CALIFORNIA (9 - 3) - 12/28/2006, 09:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TEXAS A&M is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) in road games after a bye week since 1992.
CALIFORNIA is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points over the last 3 seasons.
TEXAS A&M is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in all games this season.
TEXAS A&M is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in all lined games this season.
TEXAS A&M is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) after playing a conference game this season.
TEXAS A&M is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) in games played on a grass field this season.
CALIFORNIA is 29-48 ATS (-23.8 Units) as a favorite since 1992.
CALIFORNIA is 4-12 ATS (-9.2 Units) after playing a conference game over the last 2 seasons.
CALIFORNIA is 5-13 ATS (-9.3 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
KENTUCKY (7 - 5) vs. CLEMSON (8 - 4) - 12/29/2006, 02:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CLEMSON is 9-21 ATS (-14.1 Units) as a favorite of 10.5 to 21 points since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
MISSOURI (8 - 4) vs. OREGON ST (9 - 4) - 12/29/2006, 03:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
HOUSTON (10 - 3) vs. S CAROLINA (7 - 5) - 12/29/2006, 05:30 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
PURDUE (8 - 5) vs. MARYLAND (8 - 4) - 12/29/2006, 09:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MARYLAND is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
MINNESOTA (6 - 6) vs. TEXAS TECH (7 - 5) - 12/29/2006, 08:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TEXAS TECH is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
NAVY (9 - 3) vs. BOSTON COLLEGE (9 - 3) - 12/30/2006, 02:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NAVY is 92-60 ATS (+26.0 Units) in all games since 1992.
NAVY is 92-60 ATS (+26.0 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
NAVY is 60-36 ATS (+20.4 Units) as an underdog since 1992.
NAVY is 88-57 ATS (+25.3 Units) when playing on a Saturday since 1992.
NAVY is 45-18 ATS (+25.2 Units) in road games in games played on a grass field since 1992.
NAVY is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) in road games in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
IOWA (6 - 6) vs. TEXAS (9 - 3) - 12/30/2006, 05:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
IOWA is 1-10 ATS (-10.0 Units) in all games this season.
IOWA is 1-10 ATS (-10.0 Units) in all lined games this season.
IOWA is 1-10 ATS (-10.0 Units) when playing on a Saturday this season.
TEXAS is 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) when playing on a Saturday over the last 2 seasons.
TEXAS is 44-26 ATS (+15.4 Units) in games played on turf since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
VIRGINIA TECH (10 - 2) vs. GEORGIA (8 - 4) - 12/30/2006, 09:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
GEORGIA is 16-6 ATS (+9.4 Units) against ACC opponents since 1992.
GEORGIA is 15-5 ATS (+9.5 Units) in road games in non-conference games since 1992.
GEORGIA is 40-23 ATS (+14.7 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
VIRGINIA TECH is 17-7 ATS (+9.3 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
VIRGINIA TECH is 17-7 ATS (+9.3 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
VIRGINIA TECH is 16-7 ATS (+8.3 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
VIRGINIA TECH is 39-23 ATS (+13.7 Units) in non-conference games since 1992.
VIRGINIA TECH is 16-5 ATS (+10.5 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
NEVADA (8 - 4) vs. MIAMI (6 - 6) - 12/31/2006, 7:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEVADA is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in all games this season.
NEVADA is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in all lined games this season.
NEVADA is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) in games played on turf this season.
MIAMI is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) after a bye week over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
NEBRASKA (9 - 4) vs. AUBURN (10 - 2) - 1/1/2007, 12:30 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
PENN ST (8 - 4) vs. TENNESSEE (9 - 3) - 1/1/2007, 12:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TENNESSEE is 29-15 ATS (+12.5 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
WISCONSIN (11 - 1) vs. ARKANSAS (10 - 3) - 1/1/2007, 02:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
WISCONSIN is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) in all games this season.
WISCONSIN is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) in all lined games this season.
WISCONSIN is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
GEORGIA TECH (9 - 4) vs. W VIRGINIA (10 - 2) - 1/1/2007, 02:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
W VIRGINIA is 6-16 ATS (-11.6 Units) against ACC opponents since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
MICHIGAN (11 - 1) vs. USC (10 - 2) - 1/1/2007, 06:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MICHIGAN is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in road games in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
BOISE ST (12 - 0) vs. OKLAHOMA (11 - 2) - 1/1/2007, 09:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OKLAHOMA is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points over the last 3 seasons.
OKLAHOMA is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) after playing a conference game this season.
BOISE ST is 64-37 ATS (+23.3 Units) in all games since 1992.
BOISE ST is 64-37 ATS (+23.3 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
BOISE ST is 44-16 ATS (+26.4 Units) after playing a conference game since 1992.
BOISE ST is 39-15 ATS (+22.5 Units) off a win against a conference rival since 1992.
BOISE ST is 41-23 ATS (+15.7 Units) after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins since 1992.
BOISE ST is 21-8 ATS (+12.2 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
WAKE FOREST (11 - 2) vs. LOUISVILLE (11 - 1) - 1/2/2007, 09:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LOUISVILLE is 24-12 ATS (+10.8 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
LOUISVILLE is 24-12 ATS (+10.8 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
LOUISVILLE is 23-11 ATS (+10.9 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
LOUISVILLE is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) against ACC opponents since 1992.
WAKE FOREST is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) as an underdog this season.
LOUISVILLE is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in road games after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
NOTRE DAME (10 - 2) vs. LSU (10 - 2) - 1/3/2007, 09:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LSU is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
W MICHIGAN (8 - 4) vs. CINCINNATI (7 - 5) - 1/6/2007, 01:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
OHIO U (9 - 4) vs. SOUTHERN MISS (8 - 5) - 1/7/2007, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OHIO U is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in road games off a loss against a conference rival over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
FLORIDA (12 - 1) vs. OHIO ST (12 - 0) - 1/8/2007, 09:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OHIO ST is 17-6 ATS (+10.4 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
OHIO ST is 17-6 ATS (+10.4 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
OHIO ST is 16-6 ATS (+9.4 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
OHIO ST is 15-5 ATS (+9.5 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
OHIO ST is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
_________________
posted by phantom
14 replies
-
0 likes
College Football Trends
Tuesday, December 19th
Poinsettia Bowl
San Diego, California
Northern Illinois vs. TCU, 9:00 EST
Northern Illinois:
1-5 ATS off a road win
2-8 ATS off a conference win
TCU:
8-2 ATS as a favorite
9-1 ATS off BB conference wins
Thursday, December 21st
Las Vegas Bowl
Las Vegas, Nevada
BYU vs. Oregon, 8:00 EST
BYU:
9-2 ATS off a road game
11-3 Over as a favorite
Oregon:
1-7 ATS off a conference loss by 3 points or less
8-1 Over off a loss
Friday, December 22nd
PapaJohns.com Bowl
Birmingham, Alabama
East Carolina vs. South Florida, 2:00 ES
East Carolina:
6-0 ATS off a win as an underdog
7-0 ATS off an Under
South Florida:
12-2 Under as a favorite
12-1 Under away off a win
New Mexico Bowl
Albuquerque, New Mexico
San Jose State vs. New Mexico, 5:30 EST
San Jose State:
6-1 ATS off BB conference games
6-1 ATS off 3+ Unders
New Mexico:
5-1 Under off BB ATS wins
7-1 Under as a home favorite of 7 points or less
Armed Forces Bowl
Fort Worth, Texas
Utah vs. Tulsa, 9:00 EST
Utah:
21-7 ATS playing with rest
11-2 ATS off a combined score of 60+ points
Tulsa:
6-1 Under off an Under
6-1 Under off a win
Sunday, December 24th
Hawaii Bowl
Honolulu, Hawaii
Arizona State vs. Hawaii, 9:00 EST
Arizona State:
6-16 ATS off ATS wins in 5 or 6 of their last 7 games
6-1 Under in bowl games
Hawaii:
11-3 ATS as a favorite
7-0 ATS after forcing 0 turnovers
Tuesday, December 26th
Motor City Bowl
Detroit, Michigan
Mid Tenn State vs. Central Michigan, 8:30 EST
Mid Tenn State:
10-1 Under away off an ATS loss
5-1 Under off a conference loss
Central Michigan:
8-2 ATS playing on artificial turf
9-2 ATS off an ATS win
Wednesday, December 27th
Emerald Bowl
San Francisco, California
Florida State vs. UCLA, 9:00 EST
Florida State:
9-0 Under off BB non-conference games
15-5 Under away off an Under
UCLA:
13-26 ATS away off a home win
5-15 ATS away off 3+ wins
Thursday, December 28th
Independence Bowl
Shreveport, Louisiana
Oklahoma State vs. Alabama, 5:30 EST
Oklahoma State:
1-8 ATS away off BB conference games
20-36 ATS away off a conference game
Alabama:
25-12 ATS away off an ATS loss
6-0 Under off 3+ conference games
Texas Bowl
Houston, Texas
Kansas State vs. Rutgers, 9:00 EST
Kansas State:
6-0 Over off a conference game
10-2 Over away off a loss
Rutgers:
10-3 ATS off BB conference games
6-0 ATS after losing 2 of their last 3 games
Holiday Bowl
San Diego, California
Texas A&M vs. California, 9:00 EST
Texas A&M:
7-0 ATS off a conference game
6-0 ATS after winning 4 or 5 of their last 6 games
California:
2-9 ATS off 3+ conference games
1-6 ATS playing with rest
Friday, December 29th
Music City Bowl
Nashville, Tennessee
Kentucky vs. Clemson, 2:00 EST
Kentucky:
17-7 ATS off BB games committing 1 or 0 turnovers
8-0 Over after committing 0 turnovers
Clemson:
0-6 ATS after losing 2 of their last 3 games
1-6 ATS off 4+ ATS losses
Sun Bowl
El Paso, Texas
Missouri vs. Oregon State, 3:00 EST
Missouri:
1-7 ATS after scoring 37+ points
3-10 ATS off an ATS win
Oregon State:
16-6 ATS after winning 3 of their last 4 games
20-8 ATS off ATS wins in 4 or 5 of their last 6 games
Liberty Bowl
Memphis, Tennessee
Houston vs. South Carolina, 5:30 EST
Houston:
7-1 ATS off a straight up win
6-1 ATS off a conference game
South Carolina:
0-4 ATS after committing 4+ turnovers
11-1 Under away after committing 3+ turnovers
Champs Sports Bowl
Orlando, Florida
Purdue vs. Maryland, 9:00 EST
Purdue:
12-3 ATS off BB games committing 3+ turnovers
12-4 Under off a loss
Maryland:
2-9 ATS as a favorite
17-3 Under off a combined score of 60+ points
Insight Bowl
Phoenix, Arizona
Minnesota vs. Texas Tech, 8:30 EST
Minnesota:
26-13 ATS after forcing 3+ turnovers
10-2 Over off 3+ conference games
Texas Tech:
0-6 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 7 points
2-10 ATS off a home win
Saturday, December 30th
Meineke Car Care Bowl
Charlotte, North Carolina
Navy vs. Boston College, 2:00 EST
Navy:
5-1 Under off BB wins
6-1 Under off BB games allowing 125 or less rushing yards
Boston College:
7-1 ATS in December bowl games
10-3 ATS after allowing 75 or less rushing yards
Alamo Bowl
San Antonio, Texas
Iowa vs. Texas, 5:30 EST
Iowa:
1-10 ATS this season
1-8 ATS off an ATS loss
Texas:
8-1 ATS off a loss as a favorite
39-19 ATS after committing 3+ turnovers
Peach Bowl
Atlanta, Georgia
Virginia Tech vs. Georgia, 9:00 EST
Virginia Tech:
12-25 ATS off a home conference win
5-15 ATS off BB conference wins by 10+ points
Georgia:
16-6 ATS vs. ACC opponents
15-5 ATS away vs. non-conference opponents
Sunday, December 31st
MPC Computers Bowl
Boise, Idaho
Nevada vs. Miami FL, 5:30 EST
Nevada:
7-1 ATS playing on artificial turf
8-1 ATS after winning 2 of their last 3 games
Miami FL:
0-6 ATS playing with rest
0-6 ATS off ATS wins in 2 of their last 3 games
Monday, January 1st
Cotton Bowl
Dallas, Texas
Nebraska vs. Auburn, 12:30 EST
Nebraska:
8-2 ATS after committing 5+ turnovers
29-13 ATS with a total of 42.5 to 49 points
Auburn:
0-6 ATS off ATS losses in 2 of their last 3 games
10-3 Over off BB games forcing 3+ turnovers
Outback Bowl
Tampa, Florida
Penn State vs. Tennessee, 12:00 EST
Penn State:
2-10 ATS after allowing 75 or less rushing yards
30-14 Under as an underdog
Tennessee:
16-5 ATS after forcing 0 turnovers
6-1 ATS off an Under
Capital One Bowl
Orlando, Florida
Wisconsin vs. Arkansas, 2:00 EST
Wisconsin:
7-0 ATS off a non-conference game
18-8 ATS off a straight up win
Arkansas:
1-5 ATS off an ATS loss
8-0 Under off BB Overs
Gator Bowl
Jacksonville, Florida
Georgia Tech vs. West Virginia, 2:00 EST
Georgia Tech:
16-6 Under off a home conference win
12-4 Under as an underdog
West Virginia:
1-5 ATS in January bowl games
6-16 ATS vs. ACC opponents
Rose Bowl
Pasadena, California
Michigan vs. USC, 6:00 EST
Michigan:
6-0 ATS away on grass fields
8-2 Under as a favorite
USC:
2-10 ATS after forcing 1 or 0 turnovers
10-2 Under after forcing 1 or 0 turnovers
Fiesta Bowl
Glendale, Arizona
Boise State vs. Oklahoma, 9:00 EST
Boise State:
19-6 ATS off 3+ conference wins
23-10 ATS off a road win
Oklahoma:
7-1 Under off a conference game
6-0 Under off BB ATS wins
Tuesday, January 2nd
Orange Bowl
Miami, Florida
Wake Forest vs. Louisville, 9:00 EST
Wake Forest:
13-4 Under vs. non-conference opponents
6-0 Under after allowing 14 points or less
Louisville:
9-1 ATS off BB Overs
10-2 ATS vs. ACC opponents
Wednesday, January 3rd
Sugar Bowl
New Orleans, Louisiana
Notre Dame vs. LSU, 9:00 EST
Notre Dame:
10-26 ATS after winning 4 of their last 5 games
2-8 ATS in bowl games
LSU:
7-0 ATS vs. non-conference opponents
15-5 ATS away after winning 6 or 7 of their last 8 games
Saturday, January 6th
International Bowl
Toronto, Canada
Western Michigan vs. Cincinnati, 1:00 EST
Western Michigan:
7-0 ATS off a win as an underdog
6-0 ATS off a conference win as an underdog
Cincinnati:
19-5 Under vs. non-conference opponents
6-0 Under in dome stadiums
Sunday, January 7th
GMAC Bowl
Mobile, Alabama
Ohio U vs. Southern Miss, 8:00 EST
Ohio U:
0-8 ATS away off a straight up loss
2-10 ATS away after winning 2 of their last 3 games
Southern Miss:
9-1 ATS off a conference loss by 10+ points
12-2 Under off a road loss
Monday, January 8th
BCS Championship Game
Glendale, Arizona
Florida vs. Ohio State, 9:00 EST
Florida:
1-6 ATS off a combined score of 60+ points
8-1 Under vs. non-conference opponents
Ohio State:
8-2 ATS off a home conference win
16-6 ATS as a favorite
posted by phantom
Dec. 25 2006 8:20pm -
0 likes
Over the last 25 years, dogs in bowl games that averaged 200 or more rushing yards in the regular season are 44-9 ATS
TX A&M, Navy, and Boise St. all apply this year
Underdogs of 6 or more points in last years bowls went 13-1 ATS
_________________
posted by phantom
Dec. 25 2006 8:20pm -
0 likes
Bowled under: Fading teams in bad bowl spots
By Jeff Mason
Tue, Dec 12, 2006
Bowl games are supposed to be a big deal for college football teams. They are a reward for a season’s worth of hard work, a celebration for the program and its fans.
The seniors have a chance to end their careers in a blaze of glory. Coaches open up the playbook and break out the trick plays they have been saving all season.
Most players are delighted just to be playing football in December, but not all college football teams are created equal. Certain programs have become accustomed to playing in the only biggest bowl games and anything less just won’t do.
This particular attitude presents plenty of interesting situations during bowl season because it`s obvious that some teams would rather be somewhere else other than their assigned bowl game, whatever the reason.
Attempting to get inside players’ and coaches’ heads is more about hunches and educated guesses than it is analyzing stats or breaking down X’s and O’s. The uncertainty makes it a process many are uncomfortable with, but it’s tough to argue there aren’t situations out there that provide value.
These positions are not isolated to programs that think their bowl assignment is simply beneath them. Teams generally fall into three categories:
1. A big time program ends up in a small time game (bonus points if it’s against a small time opponent)
This is the classic example. Not every powerhouse program can make it to the show every year, but they usually still play well enough to get a bowl invite. Playing up to their reputation is often tough when the bowl logo on their jerseys is a constant reminder of a season’s worth of failure.
Best Examples:
Miami Hurricanes
Game: MPC Computers Bowl
Opponent: Nevada Wolf Pack
Line: -3
The Hurricanes are moody and immature at the best of times, just plain bad at the worst. They couldn’t get motivated for the Peach Bowl last year against a top flight opponent like LSU, losing 40-3, and have no reason to be up for a game against Nevada in Boise, Idaho on New Year’s Eve.
It took an end of the year, 17-14 win over Boston College for Miami to gain bowl eligibility. Whether they wanted it or not is another question. The Hurricanes finished 6-6, their worst record in nine years.
Added to the mix is lame duck coach Larry Coker. He was fired one day after the regular season ended, but will still coach in the bowl game. The players will be more apt to play hard for incumbent head coach and current defensive coordinator Randy Shannon than they will for Coker.
Clemson Tigers
Game: Music City Bowl
Opponent: Kentucky Wildcats
Line: -10
The Tigers have already shown a weakness for letting their emotions get the best of them. They were unable to get up for a Thursday night game against Virginia Tech on Oct. 26 after a 31-7 win over Georgia Tech the week before which put them in control of the ACC.
A 24-7 loss to the Hokies took that control away and the Tigers never recovered. They lost two of their final three games after that – all at home – dropping them from the favorite to win the ACC to the unhappy invitees of the Music City Bowl against a middle-of-the-road Kentucky team.
Others to consider:
Texas Longhorns (Alamo Bowl vs. Iowa Hawkeyes)
Oregon Ducks (Las Vegas Bowl vs. BYU Cougars)
Boston College Eagles (Meineke Car Care Bowl vs. Navy Midshipmen)
2. A team is coming off a devastating end of the season loss that dropped them out of their desired bowl game
Only half the teams can win their last game of the season and plenty of holiday plans get ruined in the process.
Best Examples:
USC Trojans
Game: Rose Bowl
Opponent: Michigan Wolverines
Line: -1
This one doesn’t take a rocket scientist to figure out. All USC had to do was beat UCLA and they would have a shot at the national championship. Of course, they lost 13-9.
A trip to the Rose Bowl always has to be considered special, but a big part of the reason USC lost to UCLA was that they were already looking forward to the national championship. This is a very young team. Keeping them motivated to play in a game that’s not for the national championship is going to be a tough task.
LSU Tigers
Game: Sugar Bowl
Opponent: Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Line: -9
USC’s loss had an impact had a situational impact on more than one team. LSU wanted to play in the Rose Bowl against Michigan, and would have if USC had won against UCLA. Tiger fans went as far as to buy tickets for the team`s first ever trip to Pasadena.
The Tigers closed with six straight wins and are arguably as strong a team as any in the country at this point in the season. They wanted to test themselves against the best. The Irish are a good, but they’ve been destroyed by any team with a pulse. Granted Michigan and USC were up for those games.
The Tigers should ideally be motivated to play in a BCS bowl game, especially at home, but it sounds like they’re taking the Irish lightly. Listen to head coach Les Miles’ almost reassuring tone as he talks about his game against Notre Dame:
“Our team is looking forward to this game. You want to celebrate a great season with a quality opponent in a bowl game and Notre Dame offers just that. Anyway you cut it, Notre Dame is a great team.â€
posted by phantom
Dec. 25 2006 8:21pm -
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Associated Press
AUBURN, Ala. (AP) - Auburn linebackers Tray Blackmon and Kevin Sears and tailback Brad Lester were suspended indefinitely Friday for violation of team rules, coach Tommy Tuberville said.
All three players will miss the 10th-ranked Tigers' game against No. 22 Nebraska in the Cotton Bowl on New Year's Day.
Blackmon and Sears had already served lengthy suspensions following alcohol-related arrests in the offseason.
Blackmon, a redshirt freshman, was suspended for the first six games this season. The former Parade All-American still worked his way into the starting lineup for four games and finished with a season-high six tackles against Alabama.
Lester is the Tigers' No. 2 rusher with 510 yards and scored a team-high nine touchdowns. Sears, a senior, has 13 tackles. He also missed last year's bowl game as part of the earlier suspension and had to sit out the first three games this season.
posted by phantom
Dec. 25 2006 8:21pm -
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The Good bowl Game Teams
-BostonCollege is 8-1 SU & ATS in its last nine bowl games, including wins in each of its last six.
-Utah has won five straight bowl games outright and is 4-0 ATS in its last four.
-Miami is on a 7-2 SU & ATS run in its last nine bowl games.
-OhioSt. is 4-0 SU & ATS in its last 4 bowl games.
-WakeForest is 3-0 SU & ATS.
The Poor Bowl Game Teams
-Notre Dame has lost eight straight bowl games and is just 1-8 ATS in its last nine.
-Louisville is on a 2-6 SU & 1-7 ATS stretch in recent bowl game action.
-West Virginia has not matched its regular season success in bowl games, as it is just 2-8 SU & 3-7 ATS in its last 10 bowl games.
-New Mexico & BYU have lost four straight bowl games and are 1-3 ATS in that span.
-Purdue is just 1-5 SU & 1-4-1 ATS in six bowl games since 2000.
-Kansas St. is 3-3 SU, but often overvalued in bowl games, as evidenced by its 1-5 ATS record in those contests.
The Over Bowl Game Teams
-Michigan has been a big Over team as well in bowl games, surpassing the total in seven of its last eight.
-West Virginia’s last seven bowl games have resulted in six overs.
-Texas & Florida have been reliable for Over bettors, converting 83% of their last six tries, 5-1.
-Cal and G.Tech are each working on bowl game trends that have seen their Over totals run to four straight.
The Under Bowl Game Teams
-The schools in Arizona have been huge Under teams in bowl games. The Wildcats have gone Under the total in four straight and the Sun Devils in 6 of 7.
-Oklahoma is 8-1 to the Under.
-Utah is 6-1 to the Under.
-Auburn have gone Under the total in five straight bowl games.
-Cincy has gone Under four straight.
-Penn.St.& Tex. A&M are 5-1 to the Under.
Top Bowl Game Conference Side & Total
-The ACC teams have combined for a 13-7 SU & 14-6 ATS record over the last three seasons.
-The Big East Conference have struggled over the last three seasons in bowl games, as its representatives are just 5-9 SU & 6-8 ATS in that span. Six of the last nine bowl games have gone Over.
-Big Ten Conference has produced 8 Overs out of last 10 games.
-Favorites in bowl games involving Conference USA teams have been on a tear, going 15-1 SU & 10-6 ATS in their last 16 games.
-Favorites are on a roll in games involving Independent teams as well, going 8-1 SU & ATS in the last nine games.
Independents as underdogs have been a staggering 2-7 SU & ATS.
-Mountain West is 13-7 ATS in bowl games.
-Pac 10 teams are 12-6 for the Over. They are 26-22 SU but an amazing 37-10 ATS.
-SEC underdogs are on a huge roll, covering their last 10 and winning 8 of them SU. 16 of 26 games have gone Under.
-WAC is 14-5 for the Over and are 5-14 ATS.
Individual Bowl Game Series
-GMAC Bowl- Conference USA teams are 1-6 SU & ATS.
-Champs Sports Bowl- Four of the last five bowl games have gone Over. The favorite is 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS.
-Hawaii Bowl- Five Straight Overs.
-MotorCity Bowl- The MAC has fallen in all of its last four.
-Insight.Com Bowl- The underdog is on a run of 7-2 ATS. Over plays are 7-1.
-Houston Bowl- The representative of the Big 12 have gone 3-1-1 ATS.
-Independence Bowl- The underdogs are 6-2 ATS.
-Holiday Bowl- 8 straight underdog covers.
-Meineke Car Care Bowl- The ACC has cashed the last 3 out of 4 games.
-Alamo Bowl- The Big Ten team is 7-3 SU & ATS.
-MusicCity Bowl- The SEC representative is 1-6 SU & ATS. The bowl game has went Under in its last 4
-MPC Computers Bowl- The favorite is 5-1 SU & ATS.
-Sun Bowl- Dogs are 9-1-1 ATS.
-Liberty Bowl- this bowl game has gone Under 12 times in its last 14.
-Peach Bowl- The representative of the ACC has gone 4-1 SU & ATS. The Under is 8-2.
-Cotton Bowl- Has gone Under 9 out of 11 times.
-Outback Bowl- Underdogs have gone 5-2 SU & 6-1 ATS. The Over has hit the last 5 times.
-Gator Bowl- The favorite is 9-1 SU & ATS.
-Capital One Bowl- Six of the last 8 games have gone Over.
-Rose Bowl- Designated Home Teams are 11-2 ATS.
-Sugar Bowl- Three straight Underdog covers. The Under is 8-4-1.
-Fiesta Bowl- The team with the better SU record has won 9 Fiesta Bowl Games in a row, both SU & ATS.
posted by phantom
Dec. 25 2006 8:22pm -
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General Bowl Trends of Recent Years:
-Ten teams have played bowl games on their home turf. Those hosts are 8-4 SU & 8-3 ATS. This years teams include New Mexico & Hawaii
-Underdogs enjoyed a fantastic bowl season in 2005-06, going 13-15 SU & 19-9 ATS, a spread conversion rate of 67.9%
-Double-digit underdogs are just 8-40 SU but 29-19-2 ATS, 60.4%, since 1992. All four DD bowl underdogs covered the spread last season. This years DD dogs include Northern Illinois, Middle Tenn St., Kentucky, Iowa, Wake was at +10 but currently at +9.5.
-Overs have dominated total plays during the last two years. Including 19-9 in 2005-06, the Overs have hit at a 62.5% clip.
-Games with extremely high totals (63 or higher) have gone Over 65.5% of the time, 19-10, since ’92. This years games Arizona St. vs Hawaiilace> (75), >Minnesota vs Texas Tech (66.5)
-Games with extremely low totals (37 or lower) have gone Under 62.5% of the time, 5-3, since ’92. No games currently under 37, the closest game is Georgia vs Virginia Tech (39).
-Bowl favorites of 11 points or less off 35+ days rest and 14+ more days rest than opponent are 0-16 ATS since 1989, failing to cover the spread by more than 10 points a game on average.Last year Penn St. -10 qualified (35+ days rest & 14+ more than opp) against FSU and won 26-23 in OT. I think Ohio St. is the only team that qualifies here.
posted by phantom
Dec. 25 2006 8:23pm -
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bowl dogs of +7 points or more....
last year bowl dogs of 7 points or more went 11-1 (91%)
the last 2 years bowl dogs of 7 points or more went 16-3 (84%)
7+ bowl dogs since 1999 (68%)
overall, bowl dogs of 7+ points are 62% the last 32years.
1997 was the last losing year for 7+ point bowl dogs (3-5)
_________________
posted by phantom
Dec. 25 2006 8:24pm -
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Just an observation
Teams with most straight up wins has not lost.
TCU had 10 and NI had 7
BYU had 10 and Oreg had 7
S Fla had 8 and ECU had 7
SJ St had 8 and NM had 6
Hawaii and 10 and Az St has 7
Troy and Rice both had 7 and Utah and Tulsa both had 7.
If this holds true, which it probably will not, you would be looking at the following:
CMU (9) over MT St (7)
UCLA (7) over FSU (6)
Rut (10) over K St (7)
Clem (8) over UK (7)
Oreg St (9) over Mizz (8)
Hou (10) over SC (7)
TT (7) over Minn (6)
Tex (9) over Iowa (6)
VT (10) over UGa (8)
Nevada (8) over Mia (6)
Aub (10) over Neb (9)
Tenn (9) over PSU (8)
Wisky (11) over Ark (10)
WVa (10) over GT (9)
Mich (11) over USC (10)
Boise (12) over Okie (11)
WMU (8) over Concy (7)
Ohio (9) over S Miss (8)
MORE WINS IS NOW: 6-0
posted by phantom
Dec. 27 2006 1:12pm -
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6 FAVS HAVE WON VERSUS 2 DOGS
7 UNDERS
1 OVER
FAVS AND UNDER SO FAR
posted by phantom
Dec. 27 2006 1:14pm -
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NCAA FB
Long Sheet
NOTRE DAME (10 - 2) vs. LSU (10 - 2) - 1/3/2007, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LSU is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
W MICHIGAN (8 - 4) vs. CINCINNATI (7 - 5) - 1/6/2007, 12:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
OHIO U (9 - 4) vs. SOUTHERN MISS (8 - 5) - 1/7/2007, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OHIO U is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in road games off a loss against a conference rival over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
FLORIDA (12 - 1) vs. OHIO ST (12 - 0) - 1/8/2007, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OHIO ST is 15-5 ATS (+9.5 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
OHIO ST is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins over the last 2 seasons.
OHIO ST is 17-6 ATS (+10.4 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
OHIO ST is 17-6 ATS (+10.4 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
OHIO ST is 16-6 ATS (+9.4 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period
posted by phantom
Jan. 3 2007 2:16pm -
0 likes
NCAA FB
Short Sheet
Wednesday, January 3rd
Sugar Bowl , New Orleans, Louisiana
Notre Dame vs. LSU, 8:00 EST
Notre Dame:
10-26 ATS after winning 4 of their last 5 games
2-8 ATS in bowl games
LSU:
7-0 ATS vs. non-conference opponents
15-5 ATS away after winning 6 or 7 of their last 8 games
Saturday, January 6th
International Bowl , Toronto, Canada
Western Michigan vs. Cincinnati, 12:00 EST
Western Michigan:
7-0 ATS off a win as an underdog
6-0 ATS off a conference win as an underdog
Cincinnati:
19-5 Under vs. non-conference opponents
6-0 Under in dome stadiums
Sunday, January 7th
GMAC Bowl, Mobile, Alabama
Ohio U vs. Southern Miss, 8:00 EST
Ohio U:
0-8 ATS away off a straight up loss
2-10 ATS away after winning 2 of their last 3 games
Southern Miss:
9-1 ATS off a conference loss by 10+ points
12-2 Under off a road loss
Monday, January 8th
BCS Championship Game, Glendale, Arizona
Florida vs. Ohio State, 8:00 EST
Florida:
1-6 ATS off a combined score of 60+ points
8-1 Under vs. non-conference opponents
Ohio State:
8-2 ATS off a home conference win
16-6 ATS as a favorite
posted by phantom
Jan. 3 2007 2:16pm -
0 likes
NCAA FB
Tips and Trends
Wednesday, January 3
Sugar Bowl - #11 Notre Dame vs. #4 LSU
(FOX | 8 PM ET)
• Notre Dame has lost eight bowl games in a row and couldn't have asked for a worst place to play than the Superdome. LSU will make a short trip from its campus in Baton Rouge and should have plenty of support. BIG EDGE: LSU
• LSU finished the season 10th in scoring with 33.1 points per game. The Tigers were also second in the nation in total defense, giving up 238.8 yards per game and fourth in the country with 12.5 points allowed per contest. EDGE: LSU
• The Fighting Irish are 0-5 ATS in their last five bowl games.
• LSU is 7-0 ATS in its last seven non-conference games.
posted by phantom
Jan. 3 2007 2:17pm -
0 likes
NCAA FB
Write-up
Wednesday, January 3
Sugar Bowl, New Orleans
Underdogs covered 12 of last 16 bowls, so Notre Dame has to get look as dog, especially with senior QB Quinn, but then you look at game being in LSU's backyard, how they whacked Miami last year, 40-3, how NFL scouts say that Tigers have most talent in country, how game is on artificial turf, and you say Irish have no shot. Everyone has a shot, but beating LSU is a tall order.
Notre Dame lost its last eight bowls; they got crushed by both Michigan, USC this season; their lack of overall team speed is going to hurt them here, and lets face it, we may have gotten to point where the preferential treatment Irish get from media works against them, putting the bulls-eye on their back no matter who they play, even if they're the underdog.
I think Notre Dame will score, but LSU will score more, so my position is that over is the right play in the Sugar Bowl.
posted by phantom
Jan. 3 2007 2:17pm -
0 likes
Six-Pack for Wednesday
-- Big East finished 4-0 in bowl games, after Louisville beat spunky Wake Forest, 24-13. They were 3-1 against spread, in season where Big East was money-earner for its backers.
-- Nick Saban's hesitation indicates he's not 100% into the Alabama job, unless he wants his staff in place before the switch is announced, but Alabama might be better off if.....
--.....they went after either Navy coach Johnson or Wake's Grobe; if you can win at Navy and Wake Forest, you sure as hell can win at Alabama.
-- A big name only gets you juice with your fans until you play your first game; then performance counts. Why spend $40M on a guy who appears unsure about the job?
-- Underdogs are still 11-4 vs spread in last fifteen bowls.
-- Bad times for the Orange Bowl; Dick Enberg used to call the game, now they're down to Matt Vasgersian. Not good.
posted by phantom
Jan. 3 2007 2:18pm