Winning Points
****BEST BET
Kansas City over *San Diego by 10
Everybody is saying it now: The Chargers are the best team in football.
That’s certainly up for debate although they do look to be the most balanced.
By the way, the Chargers clinched the AFC West title this past Sunday
and own the best record in the AFC.This being the NFL,where teams aren’t
as good or as bad as they appeared the week before, don’t be too shocked
if the Chargers come out flat against the Chiefs. Yeah, like how flat can
LaDainian Tomlinson be after he’s rushed for 954 yards and scored 21
touchdowns the last seven games? Tomlinson is running away with MVP
honors. No argument there. Let’s not discount Kansas City’s defense, however,
under Herm Edwards. It’s the best it has been in four years.They have
decent pass rushers and now linebacker Derrick Johnson is healthy. The
Chiefs have the type of ball-control offense with Larry Johnson, tight end
Tony Gonzalez and veteran quarterback Trent Green to go with a highly
decorated, polished offensive line that can successfully keep the ball way
from Tomlinson and the Chargers’ high octane attack. If Tomlinson isn’t the
best runner, Johnson certainly is. Johnson has rushed for at least 110 yards
seven of the past eight games. He’s crossed the end zone 12 times the last
nine games.This is a crucial spot for Kansas City,much more than it is for
San Diego.The game means everything to the Chiefs, desperately fighting
for a wild-card playoff berth.While for the Chargers it’s a potential letdown
spot.The Chiefs have the confidence to go toe-to-toe with San Diego having
beaten the Chargers, 30-27, back in Week 7. After a rare home loss in
December, the Chiefs are anxious to prove they are a good team. This is
their opportunity.The Chargers aren’t the only team with a superstar running
back and tight end. KANSAS CITY 27-17.
***BEST BET
Miami over *Buffalo by 14
Something has to give here.The Dolphins have won five of their past six.
They are off their most impressive performance of the season following a
21-0 whitewash of New England. The Bills are on a streak of six straight
pointspread covers.We believe it’s the Bills’ streak that ends here. Buffalo’s
undersized defense has allowed 147, 148, 188, 207, 197 and 134 rushing
yards the past six games. Now the Bills are without their best linebacker,
Angelo Crowell, who is lost for the season. Buffalo also might be missing
good-looking rookie safety Donte Whitner (check status). This hurts their
already weak run defense even more. There’s a chance the Dolphins get
back Ronnie Brown (check status), who broke his hand against Detroit on
Thanksgiving. If Brown can’t go,Sammy Morris is a reliable backup. Miami’s
offensive coordinator, Mike Mularkey, should have a clue how to best
exploit Buffalo’s weak spots. Mularkey knows first-hand since he coached
the Bills last year.The Bills have been out-gained by 976 yards on the season.
That comes out to an average of 75 yards a game the Bills are getting
out-yarded by.They just aren’t a very good team. Getting hot the secondhalf
of the season is nothing new for the Dolphins and second-year head
coach Nick Saban.They did it last season capturing their final six games.
Perhaps the Dolphins just play better when they’re out of the race and the
pressure is off. Upstate New York definitely qualifies as a cold-weather spot
for the Dolphins. But Miami went to Chicago in mid-November and
whipped the Bears by 18 points.We don’t think possible snow and wind is
going to bother Zach Thomas and Jason Taylor, who are each having monster
seasons spearheading a Dolphins defense surrendering an average of
12.8 points their last six games. MIAMI 24-10.
**PREFERRED
Pittsburgh over *Carolina by 8
It’s too bad Pittsburgh couldn’t control its turnover problems earlier in the
season because it is regaining some of last year’s championship form. In
their last nine quarters, the Steelers have allowed one touchdown – and
that was a meaningless score to the Browns in a 27-7 blowout victory.We
trust Bill Cowher to keep his team motivated. Star wide receiver Hines
Ward is expected back with the Steelers getting extra time to prepare having
last played on Thursday.Ward certainly can take advantage of a beat-up
Carolina secondary. Pittsburgh is 21-6 past Dec. 1 going back to 2001.The
Steelers are 9-5 (64 percent) ATS their last 14 as an underdog.The Panthers
are a shell-shocked squad having blown five fourth-quarter leads.They have
dropped three in a row.They don’t have the runners to move the chains
against the Steelers. Their battered offensive line could have problems
against Pittsburgh’s blitzes. Starting quarterback Jake Delhomme (check
status) missed last Sunday with torn ligaments in his right thumb.
Delhomme was having an off-season, anyways, throwing at least one interception
his last seven starts. Backup quarterback Chris Weinke is a mindboggling
0-16 in his last 16 starts. PITTSBURGH 22-14.
**PREFERRED
*Green Bay over Detroit by 14
It’s not just the Packers’ home dominance why we like Green Bay here,
although that’s a good starting point. Green Bay has defeated Detroit 15
straight times at Lambeau Field, going 10-3-2 ATS. Detroit has dropped five
straight. Low morale has swallowed up the team again. Do the Lions get
motivated to play in frigid Lambeau where they could be psyched out mentally?
Detroit is 1-5 ATS away from their indoor dome this year.The Lions no
longer are very good against the run with Pro Bowl defensive tackle Shaun
Rogers sidelined for the season.The Lions have a sack differential of minus
26.They’ve recorded 23 sacks while surrendering 49. Jon Kitna has become
a turnover machine, committing 26. Detroit came out of its home loss
against Minnesota last week not just down mentally, but beat-up physically.
The Lions may be without both of their starting guards and tailback Kevin
Jones (check status) left with a foot injury. Only the Packers’ poor record at
home keeps us from making this our highest Best Bet rating. Green Bay is
1-5 at Lambeau – having lost their last two at home to the Patriots and Jets
by a combined margin of 73-10 - while just 4-11-1 ATS as a home favorite.
That should be a motivator. GREEN BAY 28-14.
*CLOSE CALLS
*Seattle over San Francisco by 9 (Thursday)
San Francisco appears to be fading, dropping three consecutive games.
They’ve been at their worst on the road going 1-5. Seattle has revenge for
a 20-14 loss in Week 11.This marks the 49ers’ fourth game in 20 days, too.
So we’re not sure if a full effort will be there. For all these reasons, not to
mention Seattle being 16-1 its last 17 at Qwest Field,we’d have a great deal
of trepidation recommending San Francisco. Yet, the Seahawks don’t
inspire trust to cover a large number. The Seahawks actually have been
outscored on the season.Through Week 13, they ranked 18th on defense
and 20th on offense. SEATTLE 28-19.
Dallas over *Atlanta by 6 (Saturday)
Michael Vick may have to shoulder even a heavier load if his two top tailbacks
Warrick Dunn (calf) and Jerious Norwood (knee) are unable to play.
If Dunn and Norwood both are out, Justin Griffith becomes the main ballcarrier.
His role had been blocking back and pass-catcher. From a statistical
standpoint, Dallas rates a clear edge.The Cowboys entered Week 14 ranked
No. 4 on offense and No. 7 on defense. Meanwhile the Falcons ranked last
in pass offense and 31st in pass defense.The Falcons’weak secondary probably
encounters far more problems against Dallas’ aerial attack than they
did last week against the Buccaneers. DALLAS 25-19.
*Minnesota over New York Jets by 5
It’s not just lack of playmakers and no vertical passing game that’s unappealing
about Minnesota.The Vikings commit way too many penalties and
had give up seven returns for scores the past four games. Arizona and
Philadelphia allowed a league-high seven returns for touchdowns last year
during a full season. But where do we go with the overachieving Jets following
their deflating loss to Buffalo last week? The Vikings lead the NFL
by far in run defense.The Jets just don’t have enough talent to win on the
road against this quality defense without emotion and full effort. MINNESOTA
14-9.
*Baltimore over Cleveland by 15
Charlie Frye or Derek Anderson? C’mon does it matter who quarterbacks
for the Browns here? Cleveland is 2-11 during December the past three
years. Romeo Crennel is 1-10 his last 11 division games. In five AFC North
Division games this season, the Browns’ offense has tallied five touchdowns.
Baltimore is 3-0 SU and ATS the last three years hosting Cleveland.
The Browns’ thin defense, wracked by a cluster injury situation in the secondary,
is wearing down giving up 30, 28 and 27 points the last three
games.The Ravens, on the other hand, have outscored the opposition by 65
points since their bye seven games ago. BALTIMORE 27-12.
*New England over Houston by 14
The Patriots are playing too flat and have too many potential key injuries –
running back Laurence Maroney (back), tight end Ben Watson (leg) and
defensive lineman Vince Wilfork (leg) along with a decimated secondary –
for us to endorse laying a big number. Uncharacteristically New England
has turned the ball over 11 times the past three weeks.You would think the
Patriots are going to be in an extremely angry mood after being shut out
last week by Miami.What are the chances of the Patriots being flat a third
straight game? We don’t care to test that due factor with a Houston offense
missing three starting offensive linemen. NEW ENGLAND 24-10.
*New Orleans over Washington by 10
For all their expensive Hall of Fame coaching talent, the Redskins sure play
stupid.You wonder how much incentive they’ll have after three consecutive
home games because the Saints are sure to be motivated by their vocal
Superdome fans. Ladell Betts has filled in well for Clinton Portis, but this is
an off-surface for Washington.The Redskins are 0-3 SU and ATS on artificial
turf this year. Redskins owner Daniel Snyder doesn’t have to pay millions to
a coaching staff when all they have to do is have Betts run 35 times and
rookie quarterback Jason Campbell take an occasional shot downfield to
Santana Moss.The Saints’ run defense is vulnerable missing suspended tackle
Hollis Thomas. NEW ORLEANS 27-17.
Jacksonville over *Tennessee by 4
You may criticize his throwing motion, but Vince Young is 8-1 ATS as a
starter for the Titans. Sooner or later, the Titans figure to run out of gas. In
the last three weeks they’ve pulled out victories against the Giants when
trailing by 21, the Colts when down by 14 and last week in overtime
against the Texans behind by eight. Jacksonville is the better team, though.
The Jaguars destroyed the Titans, 37-7, in Week 9. Even if Fred Taylor can’t
go because of a sore hamstring, Maurice Jones-Drew is now the Jaguars’
most dangerous weapon. Do keep in mind, Jacksonville is 2-4 SU and ATS
on the road this season, has 14 players on injured reserve and is traveling
for the third time in four weeks. JACKSONVILLE 21-17.
*Chicago over Tampa Bay by 16
Because of injuries, the Buccaneers have been starting rookies at quarterback,
wide receiver and on the right side of their offensive line.The result
has been 19 points the last three games.Things are especially rough for the
limited Tampa Bay offense on the road. The Bucs have managed just five
touchdowns in six away contests. Now comes a mid-December date in
Chicago for the warm-weathered Buccaneers against a Bears defense that
entered Monday surrendering an NFL-low 12.5 points a game. So it’s hard
to make a case for the underdog even though the Bears’ secondary is
banged-up, star defensive tackle Tommie Harris is out and Rex Grossman
entered Monday with 17 turnovers his last seven games. CHICAGO 23-7.
*New York Giants over Philadelphia by 7
The Giants already have lost three games to backup quarterbacks for
Jacksonville,Tennessee and Dallas. Philly fans may boo Jeff Garcia, but you
couldn’t ask for much more. Garcia has an 8/0 touchdown to interception
ratio. New York is 2-15 without Pro Bowl defensive end Michael Strahan,
who is expected to miss at least one more week. The Giants, though, are
getting healthier in other spots. Let’s not forget this is a good team that has
played a brutal schedule in addition to suffering many injuries.The Eagles
were fortunate to defeat Washington last week, being out-gained, 415-263.
Their defensive interior is light and overworked, ranking among the bottom
five in run defense. NY GIANTS 24-17.
Denver over *Arizona by 4
So much for a storyline of Jake Plummer returning to the valley of the sun.
The new storyline is Jay Cutler making his third start and the Broncos on a
four-game losing skid, their longest since opening the 1999 season. Maybe
the Broncos just need a patsy after tangling with the Chiefs at Arrowhead,
the Chargers twice and Seahawks. Then again maybe the Broncos just
aren’t that good with a mediocre ground attack, inexperienced quarterback
and overrated defense.Arizona’s offensive line has yielded only four sacks
the past five games. The line also finally is opening holes for Edgerrin
James. He’s run for at least 96 yards three of the last four. DENVER 28-24.
St. Louis over *Oakland by 2
This is the Rams’ only road game in a five-week span.However, it comes on
a short week following their Monday night game against the physical Bears.
Marc Bulger entered the Monday matchup sacked 41 times, which was
ahead of pace for the most times a quarterback has been sacked in St. Louis
franchise history. Oakland is giving up just 15.6 points its last four home
games. But the Raiders’ ineptness on offense has made this another lost season
in Oakland.The Raiders continue to look clueless on offense, even with
a switch of offensive coordinators, averaging a measly 12 points a game. ST.
LOUIS 19-17.
*Indianapolis over Cincinnati by 4 (Monday)
Even though the Bengals have won four in a row and their defense has held
the past four foes to an average of 8.2 points a game, they may encounter
problems slowing Peyton Manning.The Colts scored 35 points on their first
five possessions in a 45-37 road win against the Bengals last year. Manning
was 24-of-40 for 365 yards and three touchdowns. Indy hasn’t been in
rhythm recently, though, failing to score more than 17 points four of the
past five games.The Colts also have the league’s worst rush defense, giving
up a staggering 375 yards on the ground last week to Jacksonville. Indy’s
defense improves if safety Bob Sanders (check status) can play. INDIANAPOLIS
27-23.
OVER/UNDER
**UNDER: New York Jets at Minnesota – No defense is stingier
against the run than Minnesota, giving up 2.7 yards per rush, while the Jets
have held four of their last five opponents to 14 points or less.
OVER: Denver at Arizona – Two highly-prized rookie quarterbacks
get to duel in what figures to be excellent weather conditions against
mediocre secondaries.
UNDER: Houston at New England – The Patriots are 10-3 to the
under, while Houston QB David Carr has averaged just 86 yards passing the
last two games with no touchdown throws.
TY & DET has only outgained foes 3 times & held the TOP edge in 3 games which has worn down an