NFL WEEK 15
GOLD SHEET CKO
11 *BALTIMORE over Cleveland
Late Score Forecast:
*BALTIMORE 27 - Cleveland 6
(Sunday, December 17)
Three NFL teams have made midseason changes at offensive coordinator, and
insiders say it's time to give credit where credit is due. With his job on
the line and his offense laboring, Brian Billick jettisoned the
(previously-dubious) Jim Fassel, with Billick re-assuming the duties he held
during the Ravens' first year in Baltimore. Since then, Baltimore is 6-1 SU
and 5-2 vs. the spread, including a perfect 3-0 spread mark at home.
Worn-down Browns beginning to fade on defense. Ravens know they can clinch
the division with a victory, coupled with a Cincy loss Monday night at Indy.
10 Miami over *Buffalo
Late Score Forecast:
MIAMI 20 - *Buffalo 12
(Sunday, December 17)
Last week's upset at the Jets helped disguise some attrition on the Buffalo
defense, which has lost starting LB Angelo Crowell and has several DBs banged
up. Dolphins, meanwhile, closing fast (5-1 vs. spread last 6) for the second
straight season under Nick Saban, and playing their best defense (ask the
Pats, who had 66 YP last week). RB Sammy Morris (career-best 123 YR vs. the
Pats) returns to Buffalo, where he rarely got a shot.
TOTALS: OVER (43.5) in Detroit-Green Bay game-Even if weather cold, Favre
knows how to score vs. Detroit; Packer defense still suspect. OVER (41; est.)
in Pittsburgh-Carolina game-Steeler OL was excellent last game & Hines Ward
due back; trailing team will go down firing, with good receivers and
questionable secondaries on each team.
HONORABLE MENTION (Nine-rated games): SAN DIEGO (-9) vs. Kansas City-With LB
Merriman & DE Castillo back, Charger defense setting up easy points for the
offense. S.D. needs to stay a game ahead of Ravens and Colts for top AFC
seed.
posted by phantom
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THE GOLD SHEET
THURSDAY, DECEMBER 14
*SEATTLE 27 - San Francisco 13--Payback time for Seattle, which was without QB Hasselbeck in first meeting, with RB S. Alexander (17 for 37 rushing) making a somewhat tentative return after being out 7 weeks with a foot fracture. Also, RT Sean Locklear (high ankle sprain) now back in action. S.F. not so lucky, with MLB and def. leader D. Smith ailing (check status). Seahawk defense fired up to make sure 49er RB Gore (212 YR in 1st meeting) doesn't dominate again. TV--NFL NETWORK
(06-S. F. 20-Sea. 14...Sf.18-15 Sf.34/262 Se.21/70 Se.19/31/3/233 Sf.19/25/0/154 Sf.1 Se.2)
(05-Sea. 27-S. F. 25...Se.21-17 Se.34/145 Sf.26/110 Se.19/31/0/228 Sf.18/29/0/226 Se.0 Sf.1)
(05-SEA. 41-S. Fran. 3...Se.31-8 Se.40/185 Sf.21/62 Se.24/30/1/253 Sf.9/22/1/51 Se.0 Sf.1)
(06-S. FRAN. +3' 20-14; 05-Seattle -12' 27-25, SEATTLE -16 41-3...SR: Seattle 8-7)
SATURDAY, DECEMBER 16
*Dallas 26 - ATLANTA 17--With Michael Vick (only 51%) and WRs erratic, can't expect Falcons' top-ranked, but now banged-up, ground game to control ball long enough to prevent Tony Romo (68% until last week's domination by the Saints) from doing substantial damage vs. Atlanta's injury-thinned defense. Romo's mobility and quick release are helping Cowboy OL that was being heavily criticized along with slow-footed Drew Bledsoe earlier in the year. Falcs last in passing, behind even the Raiders (Are you kidding me?). TV--NFL NETWORK
(03-Atlanta +2 27-13...SR: Dallas 14-8)
SUNDAY, DECEMBER 17
OVER THE TOTAL NY Jets 26 - MINNESOTA 23--Winner still has hopes in its respective wildcard race; loser will need prayer. We all know that Vikes (No. 1 in rush defense; held Lions to minus three YR last week) stuff the run. But Minny can be vulnerable to the pass (26th in league), as Tom Brady (257 YP in the first H alone), Brett Favre (347 YP for the game), and Matt Leinart (405 YP!) have shown vs. Vikes in recent weeks. Mangini's Jets haven't dropped two straight vs. the spread TY. N.Y "over" 13 of last 17 games; Minny "over" five straight!
(02-NY JETS -3 20-7...SR: NY Jets 6-1)
BALTIMORE 24 - Cleveland 7--Ravens happy to be home, where they're 5-1 SU & vs. the spread. Count on their flexible, aggressive defense to overwhelm either young QB Frye or D. Anderson of the Browns, who get precious little help these days from their depleted OL and minimal ground game. Cleveland owner Lerner reportedly getting more upset each week seeing the "wheels come off" his team, whose defense (27 ppg allowed the last 4) is being worn down.
(06-Balt. 15-CLE. 14...B.18-17 B.27/86 C.19/38 B.23/41/0/254 C.21/33/1/250 B.0 C.1)
(05-BALT. 16-Cle. 3...B.16-12 B.33/150 C.18/70 B.23/31/1/201 C.16/30/1/116 B.0 C.2)
(05-CLE. 20-Balt. 16...12-12 B.32/129 C.23/54 C.22/38/2/178 B.15/36/2/138 C.1 B.1)
(06-Balt. -6' 15-14; 05-BALT. -6 16-3, CLEVE. +3 20-16...SR: Baltimore 10-5)
NEW ENGLAND 26 - Houston 10--Be forewarned that Pats only 1-5-1 vs. spread at home TY. But after last week's humiliating 21-0 whitewash at Miami (N.E. had only 66 YP; first shutout in three years), prefer to side with AFC East leaders in home finale before difficult contests on road at Jacksonville & Tennessee. Texans have covered 3 of last 4 on the road. But Houston TDs are rare these days with Titan OL already having to replace both Ts and its C.
(03-New England -5' 23-20 (OT)...SR: New England 1-0)
UNDER THE TOTAL Miami 16 - BUFFALO 10--Expect Miami to keep its excellent defensive performances going ("Fish" allowing only 13 ppg last 6), as winner of this game evens its record at 7-7 and keeps its faint playoff hopes alive. Dolphin RB Sammy Morris (former Bill) coming off career-best 123 YR, and Joey Harrington playing more like the veteran QB he now is. Buffalo had TD plays of 57, 58 & 77 yards last week; not so likely this week. Miami "under" 4 of last 5 TY.
(06-Buf. 16-MIAMI 6...M.15-12 B.32/105 M.20/92 M.23/32/1/190 B.11/18/0/66 B.0 M.0)
(05-BUF. 20-Miami 14...B.21-16 M.20/113 B.36/99 M.21/33/3/210 B.20/26/0/137 B.1 M.2)
(05-MIAMI 24-Buf. 23...M.26-16 B.33/92 M.22/73 M.34/65/1/361 B.14/27/1/202 M.1 B.2)
(06-Buffalo +6' 16-6; 05-BUFFALO -3 20-14, MIAMI -5 24-23...SR: Miami 50-34-1)
Pittsburgh 24 - CAROLINA 17--Big game for Willie Parker (1199 YR), who hails from Clinton, North Carolina and played for the Tar Heels, and for N.C. State grad Bill Cowher. And there are now major QB questions for the Panthers (backup Weinke 423 YP but 3 ints. last week), who have managed to blow five fourth-quarter leads so far TY! WR Hines Wards (knee) expected to return after a two-game absence for Pittsburgh, whose OL had one of its best games 10 days ago vs. the Browns. Insiders say Carolina LBs vulnerable; front four prone to wear down.
(2006 Preseason: Carolina -3 beat Pittsburgh 15-13 at Pittsburgh)
(02-PITTSBURGH -8' 30-14...SR: Pittsburgh 2-1)
NEW ORLEANS 31 - Washington 16--Yes, must anticipate a bit of a letdown for N.O. after big win in Dallas. Washington defense (30th in sacks, last in ints., last in total takeaways) is a huge disappointment for Redskin fans. However, it's made to order for New Orleans' very much on-the-beam QB Drew Brees (4033 YP TY; 5 TDP vs. Cowboys!), who again should find time to operate. NFC South title seemed unlikely prior to start of season, but now it's clearly in mind of rejuvenated Saints, who aren't likely to slip up vs. low-octane 'Skins (19 points or fewer last 5 games).
(03-New Orleans +1 24-20...SR: Washington 13-7)
TENNESSEE 24 - Jacksonville 17--After his three-giveaway first start vs. Dallas, Vince Young has gone 6-3 SU and 8-1 vs. the spread as the leader of the Titans, who are gaining confidence rapidly in his comeback powers. Yes, the Jags hammered the weak Indy rush defense at home last week. But Jacksonville is 2-4 SU on the road TY, while Tennessee has covered 5 straight as a dog, with Vince's ball-control runs giving rest and confidence to the young Titan defense and valuable field position to Tennessee special teams.
(06-JACK. 37-Tenn. 7...J.17-14 J.30/173 T.32/108 J.12/22/0/169 T.15/36/3/154 J.0 T.0)
(05-Jack. 31-TENN. 28...J.22-16 T.21/63 J.30/49 J.22/38/0/246 T.20/30/1/191 J.1 T.0)
(05-JACK. 40-Tenn. 13...J.25-15 J.35/122 T.22/99 J.19/31/0/213 T.21/39/1/171 J.1 T.1)
(06-JACK. -9' 37-7; 05-Jack. -4 31-28, JACK. -4 40-13...SR: Tennessee 13-11)
CHICAGO 24 - Tampa Bay 6--HC Lovie Smith said publicly he was sticking with QB Rex Grossman despite his turnovers, but then reportedly started giving more practice snaps to Brian Griese. But Grossman & supporting cast should be enough vs. injury-thinned, deteriorating T.B. defense. And, unfortunately for the visitors' offense, even with DT T. Harris out, Lovie's team (Smith was former LB coach of the Bucs) plays a better version of the stubborn "Tampa Two" zone defense these days than Tampa Bay itself. Bears 5-1 vs. spread at home; T.B. 14 points or fewer 6 of last 7 games.
(05-Chi. 13-T. BAY 10...15-15 C.33/118 T.25/107 T.19/30/0/168 C.14/28/1/121 C.0 T.1)
(05-Chicago +3 13-10...SR: Chicago 34-17)
NY GIANTS 23 - Philadelphia 20--Meeting of current wildcard leaders in NFL. Philly remembers losing first meeting in OT after blowing a 24-7 4th-Q lead! But wins last two weeks have given Eagles new hope for the postseason, thanks to Jeff Garcia's TD/int. ratio of 8/0 (Who knew?)! Philly run defense a concern, but improved last week. And Philly def. coord. Jim Johnson's unit has enough leadership and versatility to make things difficult for Eli Manning (5 TDs, 0 ints. last 2 games) if he shows any of his former inconsistency (3 TDs, 7 ints. in Nov.).
(06-Nyg 30-PHIL. 24 (OT)...N.24-23 P.30/107 N.26/86 P.27/45/0/344 N.31/43/1/318 N.0 P.1)
(05-NYG 27-Phil. 17...P.20-17 N.29/115 P.30/106 P.18/39/1/298 N.17/26/0/200 N.0 P.0)
(05-Nyg 26-PHIL. 23 (OT)...N.28-17 P.25/175 N.40/138 N.28/44/3/299 P.14/32/0/162 N.0 P.1)
(06-Giants +3 30-24 (OT); 05-GIANTS -7 27-17, Giants -9 26-23 (OT)...SR: NY Giants 78-65-2)
GREEN BAY 34 - Detroit 17--Go-against vs. go against? Perhaps not. G.B. only 1-5 vs. spread TY at once-formidable Lambeau Field; 5-17-2 last 24! Detroit, however, is 0-6 SU (1-5 vs. the spread) on the road TY, with all losses by 7 points or more! And the Lions haven't won on the road vs. G.B. since 1991! Worse yet, Detroit's Martz-designed offense had six more giveaways last week to reach 34 for the year (now -12 in TOs). With vets A. Green & WR Driver helping Brett Favre, G.B. faithful finally go home happy.
(06-G. Bay 31-DET. 24...D.23-18 D.23/105 G.27/60 G.25/36/0/340 D.25/40/1/319 G.2 D.0)
(05-DET. 17-G. Bay 3...D.18-13 D.31/102 G.17/46 G.27/44/2/170 D.15/28/0/152 D.0 G.1)
(05-G. BAY 16-Det. 13 (OT)...G.19-11 G.35/181 D.31/129 G.21/32/1/149 D.13/24/0/112 G.1 D.0)
(06-G. Bay +6' 31-24; 05-DETROIT -3 17-3, G. BAY -6' 16-13 (OT)...SR: Green Bay 83-64-7)
Denver 24 - ARIZONA 19--Battle of highly-valued rookie QBs Jay Cutler & Matt Leinart. While that matchup will draw the pre-game headlines, we prefer to look at the "overall," which includes a better OL, defense, rush attack, and coaching on the part of the Broncos. Cutler showed marked improvement last week despite some costly fumbles (but no interceptions). And rookie Mike RB Bell (from U. of A.) eager to show his wares. Yes, "Edge" finally has back-to-back 100-yard games for the Cards, but those came against the Ram & Seahawk defenses. (2006 Preseason: Denver +3' beat Arizona 29-23 at Arizona)
(02-DENVER -12' 37-7...SR: Denver 6-0-1)
*SAN DIEGO 31 - Kansas City 19--LaDainian Tomlinson drawing most of the headlines in his record-setting year (now an unprecedented 29 TDs). But heady third-year QB Rivers (18 TDs, only 6 ints.) continues to carve up opposing defenses, especially at home, where S.D. is scoring 34 ppg. Shawne Merriman (now 12½ sacks) and Charger defense saw pass-rushing DE Castillo (6 sacks) return from long injury layoff last week. K.C.'s Larry Johnson leads "L.T." by 5 yards in rushing race; S.D. defense wants to make sure its guy is back on top at end of game. TV-NBC
(06-K. CITY 30-S. Diego 27...S.22-19 K.30/134 S.23/97 S.26/44/1/252 K.15/27/0/221 K.1 S.2)
(05-S. DIEGO 28-K. City 20...S.22-21 K.21/95 S.22/83 S.26/44/1/341 K.31/43/0/323 S.1 K.1)
(05-K. CITY 20-S. Diego 7...K.20-15 K.37/144 S.20/80 K.19/35/0/197 S.18/33/1/153 K.0 S.1)
(06-K. CITY +5' 30-27; 05-SAN DIEGO -5' 28-20, K. CITY P 20-7...SR: Kansas City 49-43-1)
St. Louis 17 - OAKLAND 13--Can't trust the offensively-limited Raiders, even with their superior defense (CB Asomugha making a bid for the Pro Bowl with 7 ints.). Oakland has scored only 42 points in the second half all season, and now Randy Moss (check leg injury) might be joining RB LaMont Jordan on the sidelines. St. Louis' restructured OL beginning to jell a little, giving careful QB Bulger (only 7 ints. prior to Chicago game) a little more time to exploit high-class RB S. Jackson & excellent WRs Holt & Bruce.
(02-ST. LOUIS +8 28-13...SR: Oakland 7-3)
MONDAY, DECEMBER 18
*Cincinnati 27 - INDIANAPOLIS 26--Last week's 44-17 collapse at Jacksonville (Jags led 375-34 in rush yards!) has Colts shaking their heads. Except for their 45-21 outpouring vs. wounded Philly two weeks ago, Peyton & Co. haven't scored more than 17 points in six weeks! Meanwhile, the rallying Cincy defense is playing its best in recent weeks, allowing only 33 points its last four games! That Bengal stop unit could not restrain Manning in LY's 45-37 loss. In 2006, it appears Dungy's banged-up platoon will have its hands full all night. Bengals 14-3-1 vs. spread last 18 away! CABLE TV--ESPN
(2006 Preseason: Cincinnati -3 beat Indianapolis 20-3 at Indianapolis)
(05-Indy 45-CINCY 37...I.28-23 C.26/164 I.30/92 I.24/40/1/359 C.25/38/1/328 I.0 C.0)
(05-Indianapolis -5' 45-37...SR: Indianapolis 14-8)
MONDAY NIGHT HISTORY
Cincinnati and Indianapolis on Monday Night
Cincinnati is 3-14 straight-up and 4-13 vs. the pointspread on the road on Monday Night Football;
5-2 straight-up and 4-3 vs. the pointspread at home on Monday Night Football.
Indianapolis is 11-4 straight-up and 9-6 vs. the pointspread at home on Monday Night Football;
6-6 straight-up and 3-9 vs. the pointspread on the road on Monday Night Football.
2006 MONDAY NIGHT RESULTS
Minnesota +4½ beat Washington 19-16 at Washington u36
San Diego -3 beat Oakland 27-0 at Oakland u43
Jacksonville +2½ beat Pittsburgh 9-0 u37½
New Orleans +3½ beat Atlanta 23-3 u43½
Philadelphia -11½ beat Green Bay 31-9 u48½
Denver -4½ beat Baltimore 13-3 at Denver u33
Chicago -10½ beat Arizona 24-23 at Arizona o40
NY Giants +3½ beat Dallas 36-22 at Dallas o44½
New England -1½ beat Minnesota 31-7 at Minnesota u39
Seattle -7 beat Oakland 16-0 at Seattle u36
Carolina -9½ beat Tampa Bay 24-10 at Carolina u37
Jacksonville -3½ beat NY Giants 26-10 at Jacksonville u38½
Seattle -9½ beat Green Bay 34-24 at Seattle o42½
Philadelphia +3 beat Carolina 27-24 o37½
NFL KEY RELEASES
TENNESSEE by 7 over Jacksonville
GREEN BAY by 17 over Detroit
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
OVER THE TOTAL in the N.Y. Jets-Minnesota game
UNDER THE TOTAL in the Miami-Buffalo game
posted by phantom
Dec. 16 2006 12:26am -
0 likes
MTI .killer sports..with there teaser GOY
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THEY STATE THEY WENT 19-5 ON THERE BOWL GAMES LAST YEAR,,FYI
5-Star BALTIMORE -11 over Clevelandâ€â€The Browns lost 27-7 to
the Steelers and their only score came with 5:28 remaining in the
game on a 4th and three from the Steelers 45-yard line. The Browns
had 18 yards rushing for the game. The Ravens play much the same
style as Pittsburgh and it’s hard to imagine the Browns competing
here against the Ravens when they have no rushing attack and the
Ravens are smelling home court advantage throughout the playoffs.
They are one game behind the Chargers, but they beat San Diego so
they own the tiebreaker.
Baltimore upset the Chiefs in Kansas City last week 20-10 as a three
point road underdog. Baltimore is inspired after such a performance,
as they are a perfect 10-0 ATS since week 16, 1999 as a home favorite
when they covered by 10+ points last week against a non-divisional
opponent, covering the spread by an average of 14.6 ppgâ€â€better
than two TDs. This trend is a perfect 3-0 this season, as the Ravens
beat the Raiders 28-6 laying 13’, the Bengals 26-20 laying 3 and the
Steelers 27-0 laying 3.
The fact that the Browns played in Pittsburgh last week is signifi-
cant, because the Ravens are a perfect 11-0 ATS as a home favorite
when their opponent is playing in their second straight road game,
covering the number by an average of a whopping 15.0 ppg. Baltimore
has dominated in this situation, winning by an average of 32.5 to 10.2
points while averaging an impressive 3.9 takeaways.
Cleveland simply does not do well the week after a poor performance
from their rushing game. In franchise history (of the New
Browns) Cleveland is 0-8 ATS as a road dog the week after a loss in
which they had fewer than 50 yards rushing, failing to live up to the
linesmakers’ expectations by an average of 15.2 ppg. The complete
query output file for this trend, shown below, exposes the Browns
ineptitude in this situation. In this situation the Browns have lost by
an average of 33.6 to 8.0 points. The final scores in the last six games
are striking. They lost: 22-0 to Pittsburgh, 44-7 vs Baltimore, 48-0
to Jacksonville, 30-7 vs Green Bay, 33-13 to Baltimore and 37-7
to Buffalo. Over these last six games they have scored a total of 10
points in the second half, none in the fourth quarter. Clearly, this is
no “ordinaryâ€
posted by phantom
Dec. 16 2006 12:27am -
0 likes
Pointwise
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2 Pats 24-13
3 Balt 27-6
4 NYG 23-24
4 N.O. 31-13
5 Chicago 23-3
Basketball
1 Utep (sat) 75-67
2 Arizona (sun) 91-61
2 Miss St (thurs) 73-72
3 Xavier (sat) 86-61
3 N.C.(tues) 12/19 92-52
4 Bradley (tues) 12/19 79-67
4 Wash St (thurs) 12/21 80-69
4 Santa Barbara (sun) 80-75
5 UAB (mon) 12/18 72-70
5 San Jose St (sun) 72-65
posted by phantom
Dec. 16 2006 12:27am -
0 likes
POINTWISE
NFL WEEK 15
NFL KEY RELEASES
NEW ENGLAND over Houston RATING: 2
BALTIMORE over Cleveland RATING: 3
NEW YORK GIANTS over Philadelphia RATING: 4
NEW ORLEANS over Washington RATING: 4
CHICAGO over Tampa Bay RATING: 5
THURSDAY
SEATTLE 34 - San Francisco 13 - (8:00 - NFL) -- Seahawks nearly clinched
division title LW, but were stopped at the Card 5 in the final minute. Still not up
to par, but Hasselbeck (3/0 LW) & Alexander (88 carries last 3 wks) are rounding
into form. Niners still getting yeoman effort from Gore (130 RYs in loss to
Packers & 5.6 ypr this year), & are on a 5-0 division spread run, but Smith has
7 picks last 3 games, & remember, SanFran lost 41-3 here LY. Niners 10-6
ATS lately, but they've allowed 39 ppg in those 6 misses. Seattle 13-5 ATS vs
division in final 4 games of year, & 7-1 ATS off a loss vs a foe DD SU setback.
SATURDAY
Dallas 27 - ATLANTA 17 - (8:00 - NFL) -- Falcs were held to just 139 RYs in
win at Tampa, but have still motored for 712 RYs the past 3 weeks. But even
with that output, they've hardly lit up the scoreboard, with a mere 14, 13, 10,
13, & 17 pts in 5 of their last 6 outings. Defensively, things are no better, as
Atlanta allowed 26 ppg in its 8 contests preceding the punchless Bucs. The
'Boys have feasted on non-division opposition, & splendid in the role of small
road chalks: 22-11 as RFs of 7 pts or less. Atlanta is just 3-15 ATS when
hosting winning teams, as well as 6-16 home off a win & cover. The 'Boys!
SUNDAY
MINNESOTA 23 - New York Jets 20 - (1:00) -- A pair of squads in division
sandwich situations. And both are a game behind in the battle for a Wild
Card slot. Minny has been competitive in all but 1 game, but was on an 0-6
spread run, & 1-5 SU slide, before dominating the Lions, holding Detroit to
minus 3 RYs. Jets' 2-game run now history, as Pennington was responsible
for 3 TOs in host loss to the Bills . But note NY winning 38-10 at GreenBay
previous wk. Vikes are 15-4 ATS after scoring 30+ pts, are 20-9 ATS home
off win/cover, & 10-2 home off upset win. Jets 3-12 ATS off ceding 28+ pts.
BALTIMORE 27 - Cleveland 6 - (1:00) -- Plus 16 & minus 12. Those are the TO ratios of these 2 combatants, and we need not explain which is which.
That's right, a TO edge of 28 for the Ravens vs the Browns. That Baltimore
"D" has now held its last 4 foes to 8 ppg, so with the Cleveland sporting the
3rd worst "O" in the NFL, the Browns have little chance. And how about the
Browns allowing 30, 28, & 27 pts the last 3 wks? McNair (21-of-27 vs KC) &
mates are drooling. Ravens ATS: 9-0 in 2nd last HG, 12-4 as favs in last 4
GOY, 12-3 off pulling an upset. Cleveland is 2-12 ATS vs a foe off a DD win.
NEW ENGLAND 34 - Houston 13 - (1:00) -- So much for the visitor in Patriot games. The guest had gone 12-1-1 ATS, before LW's 20½ pt Miami cover Brady was good for just 78 yds, with 5 sacks & 2 fumbles in that shutout loss
(1st since 9/7/03). We fully realize that the Texans have covered 3 of their
last 4 RGs by 10, 13, & 12 pts, and further understand that 5 of Houston's
last 7 games have been decided by 6, 4, 3, 3, & 6 pts, but not the spot to
catch the Pats. NEng is 34-13 as non-division HF, & is 18-6 ATS off a loss.
BUFFALO 23 - Miami 17 - (1:00) -- Don't look now, but the Bills are still alive in the Wild Card chase. Finally some running in that rout of the Jets, following a 592-214 RY deficit in their previous 3 games (McGahee: 125 RYs for 7.8 ypr vs NY). That one puts Buffalo's current spread run at 6-0, with tight tilts the norm.
Second of 3 straight division revengers for the Dolphins, who are
off to a blazing start (blanking of Pats). But Miami is 0-6-1 ATS on division
road, & 0-5 ATS off NEng. Bills 5-0 ATS in series. Note cold weather edge.
Pittsburgh 24 - CAROLINA 23 - (1:00) -- No Delhomme for the Panthers in
their loss to the Giants, altho Weinke did throw for 423 yds in his absence
(also 3 INTs). Carolina's offense has now been held below 16 pts in 5 of its
last 7 games, & the Panthers are also hurting in the "D" backfield. Check
Pitt's Parker with franchise record 223 RYs in drubbing of Browns. Steelers
can't afford a slip, & are 24-13 ATS off a DD division win, but check the host
NEW ORLEANS 31 - Washington 13 - (1:00) -- Nice balance for the 'Skins, in
their loss to the Eagles, with Betts' 171 RYs staking them to a 210 RY, 222
PY effort. But it wasn't to be, as 2 INTs, & a late failure at the Philly goalmouth
were to much to overcome. At least a push, so the fav is now on a 15-7-2
spread run in 'Skin contests. Offensively, just 14 ppg for Wash, in its last 5
outings. The rolling Saints bring the #1 "O" in the NFL vs the 5th worst "D".
'Nuff said. Remember, NwOrleans covered its last HG by 17. Saints roll on.
Jacksonville 27 - TENNESSEE 20 - (1:00) -- Talk about impressive. That's
right, we're talking about both teams. Four straight upset wins for Titans,
the last 3 on last-second 49 & 60 yd FGs, & LW's OT. Led by Young, Tenn
has run for 219 & 218 the past 2 wks. And the Titans are on an 8-1 ATS run,
covering by an average of 12 pts. Check the Jags' 251 first half RYs in rout
of Indy, as well as their 897-199 RY edge in their last 4 games. Jones &
Taylor LW: 11.1 & 14.6 ypr respectively. Awesome! The dog is 5-0 ATS
when Jaguars take to the road, but the SU winner in this series is 21-2 ATS.
CHICAGO 23 - Tampa Bay 3 - (1:00) -- We, of course, do not know the outcome
of the Bears' Monday Nighter at StLouis, but they entered that one on
a downtick. Grossman: 14 INTs in previous 7 games, as well as 21-6 FD &
348-107 yd deficits in last HG. But Bucs have dropped their last 4 RGs by
14, 14, 28, & 17 pts SU, with a 75-19 pt deficit in their last 3 games. Tampa
is 0-6-1 ATS of late, & 1-15 ATS on non-division road, while Chicago is 13-4
ATS as a Dec host. Battle of former NFC Central warriors goes to the Bears.
NEW YORK GIANTS 31 - Philadelphia 17 - (1:00) -- Don't look now, but both
of these squads are still very much alive, in the Wild Card chase, despite the
recent misfortunes of each. The Giants' 4-game slide was snapped in that
turnaround effort at Carolina, behind the leadership of Manning, who has
turned it around the past couple of weeks: 41-of-69 (5/0). Revenge affair for
the Eagles, who haven't covered on the division road since Nov of '04. Just
one sustained drive for Philly at Washington, with a 415-263 yd deficit, but
note Garcia matching Eli's 5/0 past 2 wks. Giants won 27-17 here LY. Again.
GREEN BAY 24 - Detroit 23 - (1:00) -- Minus 3 RYs for the hapless Lions in
LW's loss to the Vikes. And now Jones is out (ankle). More? Okay, how
about 6 TOs vs Minny, on the heels of 5 at NwEngland, and what about 32
RYpg in last 3 outings? Not the best of squads. But they are 12-2 ATS off
the Vikes, are 22-8 ATS in Dec division play, & are 14-3 ATS off a DD home
loss. For the Packers, Favre is only 7 TD passes from catching Marino for
the most scoring tosses in NFL history. But GreenBay has allowed 31.5 ppg
in its last 4 tilts, is 0-6 ATS hosting <.250 outfits, & is 0-6-1 in division HGs.
ARIZONA 23 - Denver 22 - (4:05) -- Battle of a pair of young guns from the
class of '06. For the Cards, Leinart is coming into his own, leading 'Zona to
2 straight wins, & is now at 10/10 for the season. And don't forget Edgerrin,
who motored for 115 yds vs Seattle, helping the Cards to a 34:39-25:21 time
edge. Broncos are in off 7 straight killers, & they have sure taken their toll.
Four straight losses, & now on a 4-10 spread slide. That, despite >500 RYs
(5.8 ypr) in 3 of those 4 setbacks. Denver is 16-6 ATS in non-division play,
but 1-6 ATS in the 2nd of 2 RGs. Simply cannot see Broncos righting ship.
SAN DIEGO 27 - Kansas City 17 - (4:05) -- Seven straight wins for Chargers,
who've clinched the AFC West. But the battle for home field throughout the
playoffs is still in the picture, so note their 1-game edge over the Colts in that
all-important race. Tomlinson now owns the single-season TD record with
29 (26 in last 9 games), while Rivers is at 18/6. For the Chiefs, they enter
tied with the Jets & Broncos in the Wild Card race, but are in off having their
18-game Dec home winning streak snapped by the Ravens. Chargers are
9-1 ATS as Dec chalks, when facing a squad off a pair of losses. SanDiego!
St Louis 22 - OAKLAND 19 - (4:15) -- Not many positives here. The Raiders
have now dropped 6 straight, while averaging an anemic 10.7 ppg. Just 14
FDs vs Cincinnati's 31st rated "D", in LW's 27-10 embarrassment (439-223
yd deficit), despite 4 takeaways. Now must host an NFC squad. Oakland
has posted a 3-22 spread log in that role. Raiders are also 5-12 ATS as
chalks, & 1-8 ATS as Dec chalks off a pair of losses. But Rams are 7-25
ATS on the non-division rd, 7-19 ATS on grass, & 9-27 facing foes off a loss.
MONDAY NIGHT
INDIANAPOLIS 37 - Cincinnati 27 - (8:30) -- Now or never for the Colts, who
have seen it all slip away recently. In off incredible 375-34 RY deficit, while
allowing 594 RYs past 2 weeks (6.3 & 8.9 ypr). Have now dropped 3-of-4 after
opening 9-0. Cincy is the epitome of streaky, opening 3-0 (SU, ATS), followed
by 0-5-1 ATS (1-5 SU), & then 4-0 (SU, ATS). Never punted in rout of Oakland,
& check covering last 2 RGs by 18½ & 27 pts (on 15-3 ATS road run). But also
check yo-yo FD trend: 15, 24, 14, 28 lately. Colts are 5-1 ATS as Monday HFs,
& if they can't get it done here, it's all over. Indy's #3 "O" vs Cincy's #31 "D".
with a 74-10 pt edge in Pitt's last 3 games. Very slight lean, but we avoid it.
posted by phantom
Dec. 16 2006 12:28am -
0 likes
SUNSHINE FORECAST
Thursday, December 14, 2006
San Francisco 49ers (+10) at Seattle Seahawks
Power Rating Projection:
Seattle Seahawks 26 San Francisco 49ers 17
Statistical Projections
San Francisco 49ers 17
Rushing Yards: 138
Passing Yards: 190
Turnovers: 2 Seattle Seahawks 23
Rushing Yards: 128
Passing Yards: 224
Turnovers: 2
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Seattle Seahawks 27 San Francisco 49ers 17
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Saturday, December 16, 2006
Dallas Cowboys (-3½) at Atlanta Falcons
Power Rating Projection:
Dallas Cowboys 25 Atlanta Falcons 21
Statistical Projections
Dallas Cowboys 24
Rushing Yards: 121
Passing Yards: 271
Turnovers: 2 Atlanta Falcons 19
Rushing Yards: 179
Passing Yards: 159
Turnovers: 2
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Dallas Cowboys 30 Atlanta Falcons 26
Angle: Short Preparation Week
Go with Atlanta Falcons ( Underdog (or PK) at home, Covered on the road in previous game, 12-8, 60.0% )
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Sunday, December 17, 2006
New York Jets (+3) at Minnesota Vikings
Power Rating Projection:
Minnesota Vikings 21 New York Jets 18
Statistical Projections
New York Jets 16
Rushing Yards: 60
Passing Yards: 180
Turnovers: 2 Minnesota Vikings 21
Rushing Yards: 137
Passing Yards: 229
Turnovers: 2
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Minnesota Vikings 21 New York Jets 7
Minnesota Vikings (1 star)
Angle: Home After Road Upset Win
Go with Minnesota Vikings ( Opponent played previous game at home, Opponent lost previous game by at least 13 points, 24-14, 63.2% )
Cleveland Browns (+10½) at Baltimore Ravens
Power Rating Projection:
Baltimore Ravens 27 Cleveland Browns 13
Statistical Projections
Cleveland Browns 10
Rushing Yards: 58
Passing Yards: 211
Turnovers: 3 Baltimore Ravens 24
Rushing Yards: 124
Passing Yards: 212
Turnovers: 1
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Baltimore Ravens 24 Cleveland Browns 10
Houston Texans (+11½) at New England Patriots
Power Rating Projection:
New England Patriots 22 Houston Texans 16
Statistical Projections
Houston Texans 14
Rushing Yards: 79
Passing Yards: 204
Turnovers: 2 New England Patriots 14
Rushing Yards: 79
Passing Yards: 204
Turnovers: 2
** Statistical edge to Houston Texans
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
New England Patriots 17 Houston Texans 10
Miami Dolphins (+1) at Buffalo Bills
Power Rating Projection:
Buffalo Bills 20 Miami Dolphins 19
Statistical Projections
Miami Dolphins 21
Rushing Yards: 120
Passing Yards: 230
Turnovers: 1 Buffalo Bills 16
Rushing Yards: 87
Passing Yards: 173
Turnovers: 2
** Statistical edge to Miami Dolphins
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Buffalo Bills 17 Miami Dolphins 16
Pittsburgh Steelers (-2½) at Carolina Panthers
Power Rating Projection:
Carolina Panthers 17 Pittsburgh Steelers 16
Statistical Projections
Pittsburgh Steelers 18
Rushing Yards: 106
Passing Yards: 245
Turnovers: 2 Carolina Panthers 17
Rushing Yards: 87
Passing Yards: 220
Turnovers: 2
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Pittsburgh Steelers 16 Carolina Panthers 3
Pittsburgh Steelers (1 star)
Angle: Home Again after Home ATS Loss
Go against Carolina Panthers ( Less than 10 days since previous game, Small Home Dog (3 pts or less) in previous game, 12-24-1, 33.3% )
Washington Redskins (+9½) at New Orleans Saints
Power Rating Projection:
New Orleans Saints 23 Washington Redskins 16
Statistical Projections
Washington Redskins 21
Rushing Yards: 166
Passing Yards: 193
Turnovers: 1 New Orleans Saints 29
Rushing Yards: 111
Passing Yards: 314
Turnovers: 1
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
New Orleans Saints 19 Washington Redskins 12
Jacksonville Jaguars(-3½) at Tennessee Titans
Power Rating Projection:
Jacksonville Jaguars 26 Tennessee Titans 21
Statistical Projections
Jacksonville Jaguars 24
Rushing Yards: 157
Passing Yards: 190
Turnovers: 1 Tennessee Titans 15
Rushing Yards: 107
Passing Yards: 163
Turnovers: 2
** Statistical edge to Jacksonville Jaguars
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Jacksonville Jaguars 31 Tennessee Titans 26
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Chicago Bears
Power Rating Projection:
Chicago Bears 27 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 9
Statistical Projections
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 9
Rushing Yards: 100
Passing Yards: 138
Turnovers: 4 Chicago Bears 25
Rushing Yards: 114
Passing Yards: 199
Turnovers: 2
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Chicago Bears 20 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3
Philadelphia Eagles (+5) at New York Giants
Power Rating Projection:
New York Giants 23 Philadelphia Eagles 19
Statistical Projections
Philadelphia Eagles 23
Rushing Yards: 112
Passing Yards: 258
Turnovers: 2 New York Giants 22
Rushing Yards: 144
Passing Yards: 192
Turnovers: 1
** Statistical edge to Philadelphia Eagles
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
New York Giants 24 Philadelphia Eagles 20
Detroit Lions (+5) at Green Bay Packers
Power Rating Projection:
Green Bay Packers 23 Detroit Lions 22
Statistical Projections
Detroit Lions 21
Rushing Yards: 69
Passing Yards: 290
Turnovers: 2 Green Bay Packers 23
Rushing Yards: 101
Passing Yards: 271
Turnovers: 2
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Green Bay Packers 25 Detroit Lions 24
Historical trend: Take Green Bay Packers ( Domination by home team, 13-4, 76.5% )
Denver Broncos (-2½) at Arizona Cardinals
Power Rating Projection:
Denver Broncos 20 Arizona Cardinals 18
Statistical Projections
Denver Broncos 21
Rushing Yards: 133
Passing Yards: 200
Turnovers: 2 Arizona Cardinals 17
Rushing Yards: 73
Passing Yards: 243
Turnovers: 2
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Denver Broncos 14 Arizona Cardinals 13
Kansas City Chiefs (+8) at San Diego Chargers
Power Rating Projection:
San Diego Chargers 28 Kansas City Chiefs 18
Statistical Projections
Kansas City Chiefs 20
Rushing Yards: 132
Passing Yards: 199
Turnovers: 1 San Diego Chargers 28
Rushing Yards: 143
Passing Yards: 229
Turnovers: 1
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
San Diego Chargers 33 Kansas City Chiefs 23
Historical trend: Take San Diego Chargers ( Domination by home team, 13-4, 76.5% )
St Louis Rams at Oakland Raiders
Power Rating Projection:
Oakland Raiders 19 St Louis Rams 18
Statistical Projections
St Louis Rams 20
Rushing Yards: 98
Passing Yards: 237
Turnovers: 1 Oakland Raiders 17
Rushing Yards: 124
Passing Yards: 187
Turnovers: 3
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
St Louis Rams 13 Oakland Raiders 12
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Monday, December 18, 2006
Cincinnati Bengals (+3½) at Indianapolis Colts
Power Rating Projection:
Indianapolis Colts 21 Cincinnati Bengals 20
Statistical Projections
Cincinnati Bengals 28
Rushing Yards: 139
Passing Yards: 258
Turnovers: 2 Indianapolis Colts 25
Rushing Yards: 99
Passing Yards: 300
Turnovers: 2
** Statistical edge to Cincinnati Bengals
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Cincinnati Bengals 18 Indianapolis Colts 17
posted by phantom
Dec. 16 2006 12:28am -
0 likes
The Sports Reporter
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
THURSDAY, DECEMBER 14
*SEATTLE over SAN FRANCISCO by 11
The 8-5 SU, 4-8-1 Seafrauds have revenge. This 49ers bunch is hanging by a thread due to
injuries on defense, and a tight end position that hasn’t really taken off as OC Norv Turner
would have liked, given the early injury to rookie #1 pick Vernon Davis and recent injury to
veteran Eric Johnson. Also, opponents have taken to putting eight men in the box against the
San Francisco offense, curtailing RB Frank Gore and forcing Alex (Somebody at Wide
Receiver Help Me) Smith to beat them with his arm, which at this stage of his ballgame and
the team’s wide receiving options, in this noisy environment for a relatively inexperienced
visiting QB is asking too much. We’d say that Seattle represents the ol’ “lay points with a
good team off a lossâ€
posted by phantom
Dec. 16 2006 12:28am -
0 likes
KEVIN O’NEILL’S
THE MAX
NFL Football
*Thursday, December 14th*
Dave Fobare’s NFL Tech Play of the Week
KO’s Note: Many readers found Dave Fobare’s technical work to be intriguing the past two years. Again this season Dave will be providing Max readers with a college play of the week and an NFL play of the week each week in the Max this year. We’re confident you’ll enjoy Dave’s work and learn from it as well. Dave’s plays will be clearly labeled. All other games are written up by Kevin O’Neill.
49ers (+9½) over @Seahawks
Two weeks ago, this young San Francisco team found themselves in a strange spot: in the NFC race for a Wild Card spot in the playoffs. Two double-digit losses later the 5-8 Niners' playoff hopes are all but extinguished. But Seattle is still in the thick of the playoff hunt. In losing to a rejuvenated Arizona squad 27-21 last weekend Seattle blew a chance to clinch their third division title in a row and punch their ticket to the playoff dance. As of this writing they still maintain a 2.5 game lead in the NFC West, but they are just 2-2 over their last four games and would like to sew the division up to avoid the messy Wild Card race.
The key tech backing for this play is a 60-18 ATS big divisional road dog system worth nearly 7 points per game that favors the 49'ers. This system gets stronger as the road team's recent woes pile up. If the road team comes in off of a loss, the record climbs to 36-10. If they come in off 2+ losses, the record jumps to 24-3 ATS. Now overall, the past 25 years have shown that late in the season home teams tend to dominate. But not under this system. In the final 3 games of the regular season these road dogs are 15-2 ATS, and when playing into same season revenge like Frisco is they are 19-5 ATS. Yes, the Niners have been awful on the road this season, and yes the Seahawks need this game while their opponent is now just playing the string out. But that need is why the line has been hiked up, and with the pressure now off a 49'ers team that wasn't supposed to contend for a playoff spot anyway its a perfect time to buck the betting public and go the other way.
Take San Francisco plus the big points in the NFL Tech Team Play of the Week.
Saturday, December 16th
Saturday Night Total
Cowboys @ Falcons under 43½
With Jerious Norwood (knee) and Warrick Dunn (calf) hurt in the same drive Sunday, the Falcons will be hard pressed to get a lot of offense going in this one. Jim Mora labeled both running backs as questionable but hasn’t exactly been shouting their status from the rooftops since then. Michael Vick can’t be blamed for his mediocre receiving corps, nor the injuries to his top RB’s. It is tough to see how the Falcons will generate a lot of offense with a banged up running back position. They didn’t do much on Sunday, as there was only one offensive TD. The other score was a fumble return and the field goal in the 17-6 win was on an 8-yard “driveâ€
posted by phantom
Dec. 16 2006 12:29am -
0 likes
POWER SWEEP
KEY SELECTIONS
4★ GREEN BAY over Detroit - The Packers beat the Lions 31-24 as a 6.5 pt AD in week 3 as Favre &
Kitna each had 300 yd passing days. GB is 10-3-1 ATS hosting the Lions. GB is 6-15 ATS at home (1-5
TY). DET is 0-7 SU & 1-6 ATS in div play. Injuries on both the OL & DL have really hurt the Lions TY as
while Kitna is 3rd in passing yds so far he’s been sacked 49 times (31st) & has been forced to hurry his
reads & this creates mistakes as his 16 int are 30th in the NFL. DET has been outrushed 130 (4.1) to 71
(3.
TY & DET has only outgained foes 3 times & held the TOP edge in 3 games which has worn down aninj depleted DL & a young LB unit. GB is off a road game vs a similarly talented 49ers defense & Favre had
a solid game passing for 293 yds (65%) with a 2-0 ratio (111.5 QBR). The Lions are allowing 258 ypg
passing (70%) with a 10-3 ratio on the road TY & have only tallied 5 sacks on the road TY (17 at home). GB
also showed balance by having RB’s Green & Morency combine for 146 yds (5.2) LW which took a lot of
pressure off Favre. DET is the worst team in the NFL & LW’s win vs the 49ers gives GB enough confidence
for another win here.
FORECAST: GREEN BAY 31 Detroit 17
3★ NEW ENGLAND over Houston - NE won the only previous meeting 23-20 but failed to cover as a 5.5
pt AF in 2003. This game has the Patriots #11 & #9 units vs the Texans #28 & #28 units. NE is 4-10-1 ATS
at home. HOU is 10-5 ATS as a DD AD. HF’s of 3 or more that were shutout the previous week are 15-4-3
ATS S/’93. This is the Patriots final home game (HOU’s final road game 1-3 ATS) & they are 7-1 ATS with
the only loss being LY when they rested all the starters in the 2H as they had nothing to play for. The Texans
come in here with 3 OL starters & both starting DT’s on IR & lack balance on offense as they have been
outgained 359-264 vs non-div foes TY & are 3-8 ATS vs teams not named Jacksonville TY. NE was shutout
for the 1st time since opening week of 2003 vs the Dolphins LW being outgained 315-189. Brady could only
muster 66 yds passing (50%) as he was sacked 5 times & NE has been hit with 19 penalties the L2W. NE
was without RB Maroney & TE Watson left the game in the 3Q with a leg injury. NE’s #15 pass defense has
been very beat up TY & teams are avoiding the #3 rush def (27th in rushed on att’s). Still NE is only allowing
a 7-16 ratio & an opposing QBR of 69.5. LW’s results give some value here & look for a focused & angry
defense & Brady to make short work of the Texans. Belichick is 10-1 ATS off a SU loss.
FORECAST: NEW ENGLAND 30 Houston 3
OTHER SELECTIONS
2★ Dallas over ATLANTA - This is DAL’s 3rd National TV game in 4 weeks & they have a MNF game vs
PHI on deck with this their road finale (3-3-1 ATS). This game has the Falcons #1 rushing offense (198 ypg
5.6) vs the Cowboys #5 rush defense (90 ypg 3.6). The Atlanta rush attack which had B2B games of 281 yds
vs NO & 256 yds at WAS was slowed with 139 yds (4.1) with inj’s to RB’s Dunn & Norwood (check status).
This is only Atlanta’s 3rd home game in 7 weeks & they were upset in those two by CLE & NO. Atlanta is 4-1
ATS as a dog his season & beat Pittsburgh in OT 41-38 in their only home dog role. The Cowboys are off a
Sunday Night game vs NO & without those results being known QB Romo has led them to 4 straight wins.
While this will be his first start in a dome the power running of RB Barber the last 2 weeks (159 yds, 5.7) has opened the passing lane for TO even more (16 rec, 11.9 ypr L/2W). It must be noted that the Falcon’s are 6-6 but only one win (Cincy) is against a winning opponent. DAL has been playing at a playoff level since the IND game & will be prepared for this game as Parcells knows that the best way to prepare Romo & the rest of his team in the playoffs is at home & DAL is the play here.
FORECAST: Dallas 34 ATLANTA 14
2★ TENNESSEE over Jacksonville - The home team is 10-4 SU & ATS in the series & the Jaguars won
the initial meeting TY 37-7 as a 9.5 pt HF. Both teams relied on the ground game due to winds of 25 mph as
the Jags outrushed the Titans 173 (5.
to 108 (3.4) & held Young to 163 yds passing (42%) with a 1-3 ratiowhile Garrard had 177 yds (55%) with a 3-0 ratio. JAX is 4-10 ATS as a division favorite & 3-6 ATS after
facing IND. TEN is 6-1 ATS as a dog. JAX overwhelmed the Colts LW 44-17 as they finished with 375 (8.9)
yds rushing which is the 2nd most in the modern NFL (IND 34 yds 1.7). They had a 293-186 yd edge at the
end of the 1H & only punted once in the game. They now take to the road & face a Titans team that is 8-1
ATS by sticking to the run game having outrushed foes 166 (5.1) to 121 (4.3), minimizing TO’s (+5 TO’s in
span) & have upset 3 playoff level teams (NYG, PHI, IND) & almost beat a very tough BAL defense. The
Jags have a tendency to play to the level of their competition on the road & are off a huge home win vs IND
with a playoff revenge game vs NE at home on deck. Fisher continues to impress with another spread win
here & the “ugly dogâ€
posted by phantom
Dec. 16 2006 12:29am -
0 likes
POWER SWEEP OVER/UNDERS
3★ Dolphins/Bills Under 35
3★ Broncos/Cardinals Over 41
3★ Jaguars/Titans Over 41
2★ Bucs/Bears Over 33
2★ Lions/Packers Over 44
FYI: LAST WEEK'S 3★'S WENT 3-0
posted by phantom
Dec. 16 2006 12:30am -
0 likes
Winning Points
****BEST BET
Kansas City over *San Diego by 10
Everybody is saying it now: The Chargers are the best team in football.
That’s certainly up for debate although they do look to be the most balanced.
By the way, the Chargers clinched the AFC West title this past Sunday
and own the best record in the AFC.This being the NFL,where teams aren’t
as good or as bad as they appeared the week before, don’t be too shocked
if the Chargers come out flat against the Chiefs. Yeah, like how flat can
LaDainian Tomlinson be after he’s rushed for 954 yards and scored 21
touchdowns the last seven games? Tomlinson is running away with MVP
honors. No argument there. Let’s not discount Kansas City’s defense, however,
under Herm Edwards. It’s the best it has been in four years.They have
decent pass rushers and now linebacker Derrick Johnson is healthy. The
Chiefs have the type of ball-control offense with Larry Johnson, tight end
Tony Gonzalez and veteran quarterback Trent Green to go with a highly
decorated, polished offensive line that can successfully keep the ball way
from Tomlinson and the Chargers’ high octane attack. If Tomlinson isn’t the
best runner, Johnson certainly is. Johnson has rushed for at least 110 yards
seven of the past eight games. He’s crossed the end zone 12 times the last
nine games.This is a crucial spot for Kansas City,much more than it is for
San Diego.The game means everything to the Chiefs, desperately fighting
for a wild-card playoff berth.While for the Chargers it’s a potential letdown
spot.The Chiefs have the confidence to go toe-to-toe with San Diego having
beaten the Chargers, 30-27, back in Week 7. After a rare home loss in
December, the Chiefs are anxious to prove they are a good team. This is
their opportunity.The Chargers aren’t the only team with a superstar running
back and tight end. KANSAS CITY 27-17.
***BEST BET
Miami over *Buffalo by 14
Something has to give here.The Dolphins have won five of their past six.
They are off their most impressive performance of the season following a
21-0 whitewash of New England. The Bills are on a streak of six straight
pointspread covers.We believe it’s the Bills’ streak that ends here. Buffalo’s
undersized defense has allowed 147, 148, 188, 207, 197 and 134 rushing
yards the past six games. Now the Bills are without their best linebacker,
Angelo Crowell, who is lost for the season. Buffalo also might be missing
good-looking rookie safety Donte Whitner (check status). This hurts their
already weak run defense even more. There’s a chance the Dolphins get
back Ronnie Brown (check status), who broke his hand against Detroit on
Thanksgiving. If Brown can’t go,Sammy Morris is a reliable backup. Miami’s
offensive coordinator, Mike Mularkey, should have a clue how to best
exploit Buffalo’s weak spots. Mularkey knows first-hand since he coached
the Bills last year.The Bills have been out-gained by 976 yards on the season.
That comes out to an average of 75 yards a game the Bills are getting
out-yarded by.They just aren’t a very good team. Getting hot the secondhalf
of the season is nothing new for the Dolphins and second-year head
coach Nick Saban.They did it last season capturing their final six games.
Perhaps the Dolphins just play better when they’re out of the race and the
pressure is off. Upstate New York definitely qualifies as a cold-weather spot
for the Dolphins. But Miami went to Chicago in mid-November and
whipped the Bears by 18 points.We don’t think possible snow and wind is
going to bother Zach Thomas and Jason Taylor, who are each having monster
seasons spearheading a Dolphins defense surrendering an average of
12.8 points their last six games. MIAMI 24-10.
**PREFERRED
Pittsburgh over *Carolina by 8
It’s too bad Pittsburgh couldn’t control its turnover problems earlier in the
season because it is regaining some of last year’s championship form. In
their last nine quarters, the Steelers have allowed one touchdown – and
that was a meaningless score to the Browns in a 27-7 blowout victory.We
trust Bill Cowher to keep his team motivated. Star wide receiver Hines
Ward is expected back with the Steelers getting extra time to prepare having
last played on Thursday.Ward certainly can take advantage of a beat-up
Carolina secondary. Pittsburgh is 21-6 past Dec. 1 going back to 2001.The
Steelers are 9-5 (64 percent) ATS their last 14 as an underdog.The Panthers
are a shell-shocked squad having blown five fourth-quarter leads.They have
dropped three in a row.They don’t have the runners to move the chains
against the Steelers. Their battered offensive line could have problems
against Pittsburgh’s blitzes. Starting quarterback Jake Delhomme (check
status) missed last Sunday with torn ligaments in his right thumb.
Delhomme was having an off-season, anyways, throwing at least one interception
his last seven starts. Backup quarterback Chris Weinke is a mindboggling
0-16 in his last 16 starts. PITTSBURGH 22-14.
**PREFERRED
*Green Bay over Detroit by 14
It’s not just the Packers’ home dominance why we like Green Bay here,
although that’s a good starting point. Green Bay has defeated Detroit 15
straight times at Lambeau Field, going 10-3-2 ATS. Detroit has dropped five
straight. Low morale has swallowed up the team again. Do the Lions get
motivated to play in frigid Lambeau where they could be psyched out mentally?
Detroit is 1-5 ATS away from their indoor dome this year.The Lions no
longer are very good against the run with Pro Bowl defensive tackle Shaun
Rogers sidelined for the season.The Lions have a sack differential of minus
26.They’ve recorded 23 sacks while surrendering 49. Jon Kitna has become
a turnover machine, committing 26. Detroit came out of its home loss
against Minnesota last week not just down mentally, but beat-up physically.
The Lions may be without both of their starting guards and tailback Kevin
Jones (check status) left with a foot injury. Only the Packers’ poor record at
home keeps us from making this our highest Best Bet rating. Green Bay is
1-5 at Lambeau – having lost their last two at home to the Patriots and Jets
by a combined margin of 73-10 - while just 4-11-1 ATS as a home favorite.
That should be a motivator. GREEN BAY 28-14.
*CLOSE CALLS
*Seattle over San Francisco by 9 (Thursday)
San Francisco appears to be fading, dropping three consecutive games.
They’ve been at their worst on the road going 1-5. Seattle has revenge for
a 20-14 loss in Week 11.This marks the 49ers’ fourth game in 20 days, too.
So we’re not sure if a full effort will be there. For all these reasons, not to
mention Seattle being 16-1 its last 17 at Qwest Field,we’d have a great deal
of trepidation recommending San Francisco. Yet, the Seahawks don’t
inspire trust to cover a large number. The Seahawks actually have been
outscored on the season.Through Week 13, they ranked 18th on defense
and 20th on offense. SEATTLE 28-19.
Dallas over *Atlanta by 6 (Saturday)
Michael Vick may have to shoulder even a heavier load if his two top tailbacks
Warrick Dunn (calf) and Jerious Norwood (knee) are unable to play.
If Dunn and Norwood both are out, Justin Griffith becomes the main ballcarrier.
His role had been blocking back and pass-catcher. From a statistical
standpoint, Dallas rates a clear edge.The Cowboys entered Week 14 ranked
No. 4 on offense and No. 7 on defense. Meanwhile the Falcons ranked last
in pass offense and 31st in pass defense.The Falcons’weak secondary probably
encounters far more problems against Dallas’ aerial attack than they
did last week against the Buccaneers. DALLAS 25-19.
*Minnesota over New York Jets by 5
It’s not just lack of playmakers and no vertical passing game that’s unappealing
about Minnesota.The Vikings commit way too many penalties and
had give up seven returns for scores the past four games. Arizona and
Philadelphia allowed a league-high seven returns for touchdowns last year
during a full season. But where do we go with the overachieving Jets following
their deflating loss to Buffalo last week? The Vikings lead the NFL
by far in run defense.The Jets just don’t have enough talent to win on the
road against this quality defense without emotion and full effort. MINNESOTA
14-9.
*Baltimore over Cleveland by 15
Charlie Frye or Derek Anderson? C’mon does it matter who quarterbacks
for the Browns here? Cleveland is 2-11 during December the past three
years. Romeo Crennel is 1-10 his last 11 division games. In five AFC North
Division games this season, the Browns’ offense has tallied five touchdowns.
Baltimore is 3-0 SU and ATS the last three years hosting Cleveland.
The Browns’ thin defense, wracked by a cluster injury situation in the secondary,
is wearing down giving up 30, 28 and 27 points the last three
games.The Ravens, on the other hand, have outscored the opposition by 65
points since their bye seven games ago. BALTIMORE 27-12.
*New England over Houston by 14
The Patriots are playing too flat and have too many potential key injuries –
running back Laurence Maroney (back), tight end Ben Watson (leg) and
defensive lineman Vince Wilfork (leg) along with a decimated secondary –
for us to endorse laying a big number. Uncharacteristically New England
has turned the ball over 11 times the past three weeks.You would think the
Patriots are going to be in an extremely angry mood after being shut out
last week by Miami.What are the chances of the Patriots being flat a third
straight game? We don’t care to test that due factor with a Houston offense
missing three starting offensive linemen. NEW ENGLAND 24-10.
*New Orleans over Washington by 10
For all their expensive Hall of Fame coaching talent, the Redskins sure play
stupid.You wonder how much incentive they’ll have after three consecutive
home games because the Saints are sure to be motivated by their vocal
Superdome fans. Ladell Betts has filled in well for Clinton Portis, but this is
an off-surface for Washington.The Redskins are 0-3 SU and ATS on artificial
turf this year. Redskins owner Daniel Snyder doesn’t have to pay millions to
a coaching staff when all they have to do is have Betts run 35 times and
rookie quarterback Jason Campbell take an occasional shot downfield to
Santana Moss.The Saints’ run defense is vulnerable missing suspended tackle
Hollis Thomas. NEW ORLEANS 27-17.
Jacksonville over *Tennessee by 4
You may criticize his throwing motion, but Vince Young is 8-1 ATS as a
starter for the Titans. Sooner or later, the Titans figure to run out of gas. In
the last three weeks they’ve pulled out victories against the Giants when
trailing by 21, the Colts when down by 14 and last week in overtime
against the Texans behind by eight. Jacksonville is the better team, though.
The Jaguars destroyed the Titans, 37-7, in Week 9. Even if Fred Taylor can’t
go because of a sore hamstring, Maurice Jones-Drew is now the Jaguars’
most dangerous weapon. Do keep in mind, Jacksonville is 2-4 SU and ATS
on the road this season, has 14 players on injured reserve and is traveling
for the third time in four weeks. JACKSONVILLE 21-17.
*Chicago over Tampa Bay by 16
Because of injuries, the Buccaneers have been starting rookies at quarterback,
wide receiver and on the right side of their offensive line.The result
has been 19 points the last three games.Things are especially rough for the
limited Tampa Bay offense on the road. The Bucs have managed just five
touchdowns in six away contests. Now comes a mid-December date in
Chicago for the warm-weathered Buccaneers against a Bears defense that
entered Monday surrendering an NFL-low 12.5 points a game. So it’s hard
to make a case for the underdog even though the Bears’ secondary is
banged-up, star defensive tackle Tommie Harris is out and Rex Grossman
entered Monday with 17 turnovers his last seven games. CHICAGO 23-7.
*New York Giants over Philadelphia by 7
The Giants already have lost three games to backup quarterbacks for
Jacksonville,Tennessee and Dallas. Philly fans may boo Jeff Garcia, but you
couldn’t ask for much more. Garcia has an 8/0 touchdown to interception
ratio. New York is 2-15 without Pro Bowl defensive end Michael Strahan,
who is expected to miss at least one more week. The Giants, though, are
getting healthier in other spots. Let’s not forget this is a good team that has
played a brutal schedule in addition to suffering many injuries.The Eagles
were fortunate to defeat Washington last week, being out-gained, 415-263.
Their defensive interior is light and overworked, ranking among the bottom
five in run defense. NY GIANTS 24-17.
Denver over *Arizona by 4
So much for a storyline of Jake Plummer returning to the valley of the sun.
The new storyline is Jay Cutler making his third start and the Broncos on a
four-game losing skid, their longest since opening the 1999 season. Maybe
the Broncos just need a patsy after tangling with the Chiefs at Arrowhead,
the Chargers twice and Seahawks. Then again maybe the Broncos just
aren’t that good with a mediocre ground attack, inexperienced quarterback
and overrated defense.Arizona’s offensive line has yielded only four sacks
the past five games. The line also finally is opening holes for Edgerrin
James. He’s run for at least 96 yards three of the last four. DENVER 28-24.
St. Louis over *Oakland by 2
This is the Rams’ only road game in a five-week span.However, it comes on
a short week following their Monday night game against the physical Bears.
Marc Bulger entered the Monday matchup sacked 41 times, which was
ahead of pace for the most times a quarterback has been sacked in St. Louis
franchise history. Oakland is giving up just 15.6 points its last four home
games. But the Raiders’ ineptness on offense has made this another lost season
in Oakland.The Raiders continue to look clueless on offense, even with
a switch of offensive coordinators, averaging a measly 12 points a game. ST.
LOUIS 19-17.
*Indianapolis over Cincinnati by 4 (Monday)
Even though the Bengals have won four in a row and their defense has held
the past four foes to an average of 8.2 points a game, they may encounter
problems slowing Peyton Manning.The Colts scored 35 points on their first
five possessions in a 45-37 road win against the Bengals last year. Manning
was 24-of-40 for 365 yards and three touchdowns. Indy hasn’t been in
rhythm recently, though, failing to score more than 17 points four of the
past five games.The Colts also have the league’s worst rush defense, giving
up a staggering 375 yards on the ground last week to Jacksonville. Indy’s
defense improves if safety Bob Sanders (check status) can play. INDIANAPOLIS
27-23.
OVER/UNDER
**UNDER: New York Jets at Minnesota – No defense is stingier
against the run than Minnesota, giving up 2.7 yards per rush, while the Jets
have held four of their last five opponents to 14 points or less.
OVER: Denver at Arizona – Two highly-prized rookie quarterbacks
get to duel in what figures to be excellent weather conditions against
mediocre secondaries.
UNDER: Houston at New England – The Patriots are 10-3 to the
under, while Houston QB David Carr has averaged just 86 yards passing the
last two games with no touchdown throws.
posted by phantom
Dec. 16 2006 12:30am -
0 likes
MARC LAWRENCE'S PLAYBOOK
5★ BEST BET - PANTHERS
4★ BEST BET - PHILADELPHIA
3★ BEST BET - SAN DIEGO
NFL TOTALS
Ravens UNDER
Bears UNDER
Bills UNDER
AWESOME ANGLE
OF THE WEEK
PLAY AGAINST any sub .400 NFL team in Game 14 if this
is their final road gameof the season and they are off
a SU & ATS loss.
PLAY AGAINST: HOUSTON TEXANS
INCREDIBLE STAT OF THE WEEK
The CINCINNATI BENGALS are 1-17 SU & 2-16 ATS away vs a .700 > opponent.
Thursday, December 14th
SEATTLE over San Francisco by 10
The Niners and their rock solid running game have been good to us
recently and we're not really enthusiastic about turning against them.
But Seattle is 15-1 SU and 11-4-1 ATS in its last 16 home games and
will be playing with same season revenge here. The last two trips
to the Great Northwest have been nightmares (losses of 38 and 34
points) for the Bay Boys but their plus to minus net rushing average
won't let us fade them. We're sleepless in Seattle.
Saturday, December 16th
Dallas over ATLANTA by 1
Atlanta certainly looks like a live home dog here. Rewinding to
week four of the season would fi nd the Falcons almost a touchdown
favorite in this game. Now, it's the Cowboys laying the juice. Dallas
doesn't excel in this role by any means. The Pokes are 9-22 ATS in their
last 31 tries as road chalk, including 4-16 ATS against non-division
foes. However, there are two nickels in every dime and the other five cent
piece is Atlanta's 5-16-1 ATS log in its last 18 as a home dog.
Sunday, December 17th
MINNESOTA over NY Jets by 6
The Jets have baffl ed the statisticians all season long and it would
come as no surprise to us if they did it again. Minnesota is 19-4 SU and
15-8 ATS at home off a road game, including 10-3 ATS against nondivision
opposition. The Vikings are also ranked eleven spots higher
than the Jets in league offensive standings and are 23 notches above
the Airplanes in defensive numbers. Despite New York's penchant
for chewing up stats, we're wearin' Purple.
BALTIMORE over Cleveland by 14
Cleveland had Baltimore beat in its home game with the Ravens
earlier this season but let the Blackbirds off the hook in a late 15-14
loss. The temptation is to grab the feisty Browns with revenge here
but the urge will quickly subside when these numbers are posted
for public viewing. Baltimore is 35-13-2 ATS as home chalk in its last
50 tries, including 25-7 ATS against losing teams and 17-1 ATS when
coming off a non-division game. Nasty, to say the least. Toss in Balto's
8-0 ATS mark at home against foes off a double-digit defeat and we
leave you with this fi nal thought: Just Do It.
NEW ENGLAND over Houston by 14
Houston has lost nine road games in a row against .666 or better
teams and is 2-9 SU on the road after playing a division game. We
mention those SU numbers because the Texans are 4-26 ATS in their
last 30 non-division losses. Couple those numbers with New England's
15-1 SU home mark against sub .400 teams and its 18-4 ATS log in
its last 22 non-division wins and this dog gets spayed right off our
ticket. Pats or Pass on this one.
BUFFALO over Miami by 3
Miami has played New England tougher than any other AFC East
team and that includes the days when Indianapolis was a division
member. But lately, those Patriot Games have caused hangovers the
next week (0-5 ATS) for the Dolphins. Buffalo has taken advantage
twice in that fi ve game span and is poised to profi t. The Bills have
fi ve straight covers against the Dolphins and, if they puppy up, we
might try for six in a row. Check the thermometer before investing
here. Frozen Fish are hard to swallow.
5★ BEST BET
CAROLINA over Pittsburgh by 10
The Steel is 29-13 ATS as road shorts off a division home game,
including 22-9-2 ATS when facing a non-division rival. Carolina
certainly missed Jake Delhomme last week but the fact is they
trounced the Giants in the stats (463-307) in last week's 14-
point home loss. Besides, defending Super Bowl champs (still
the Steelers at the moment) are 22-40 ATS as non-division road
chalk off a win. Toss is John Fox's fantastic 25-10-1 ATS career
mark as a dog (12-2 ATS against sub .500 foes) and a take is in
order in this Last Home Game affair today.
NEW ORLEANS over Washington by 10
How about them Saints! Certainly the surprise team in the NFL this
season, they've done it the old fashioned way, by outperforming the
opposition on the fi eld, where they are 11-2 ITS (In The Stats) this year.
With Washington at 4-15 SU in its last 19 road games against winning
teams and New Orleans at 34-3-1 ATS in its last 38 SU wins, only a
fool would grab the Redskins here. With a net yardage advantage
of +125 (Saints gain 88 yards more than they allow - Washington
allows 37 more than it gains), a New Orleans victory would come as
no surprise. Note that after game 12 of the season, winning home
teams are 222-55 SU against losers. The Saints keep on marching.
TENNESSEE over Jacksonville by 1
Tennessee took a horrible thumping on the banks of the Saint John's
river in early November and has been waiting since then to get
even. Normally, we don't hang our hats on NFL revenge games but
Jacksonville is 1-10 ATS in its last 11 road games against avenging
teams and this, for sure, is a different Tennessee team – with Vince
Young – than the one they beat earlier. Can't trust a suddenly popular
road favorite that is 1-6 ATS the last seven times they've assumed
the position.
CHICAGO over Tampa Bay by 14
Tampa has a reputation for not performing well outdoors in the
north in late season and that rep is earned. The Bucs are 8-24 SU and
11-20-1 ATS on the northern road after game 12. They are also 5-17
ATS on the road in their last 22 against .460 or better enemies and
1-13 ATS in their last 14 road games when held to less than 17 points.
We mention that last stat because Chicago is 10-2 ATS in its last 12
regular season home games, allowing less than nine points per game
over than 12 game span. Another thermometer game.
4★ BEST BET
Philadelphia over NY GIANTS by 7
Philly took a 30-24 overtime beat on the chin from the Giants in
week two of the season and the Eagles still haven't gotten over
it. Their talent at getting even is manifested by their 10-2 ATS
mark in their last 12 road revenge games, but they better win the
game. New York's defense is coming back to form (even though
they are 2-10 SU without Michael Strahan in the lineup). With
all the Giant sackmasters back in action, it's thought Jeff Garcia
could become one of the Grateful Dead. Before he passes, we'll
point to Philly's 8-1 ATS road mark with same season revenge
and grab the points in this payback.
GREEN BAY over Detroit by 6
Detroit is just 5-23 SU in its last 28 division road games and 5-41
SU in its last 46 road games in any role. To make matters worse for
the crumbling Lions, they have visited Lambeau fi eld 15 times in a
row without tasting victory, managing only three covers in those
15 games. With Green Bay standing at 30-5-3 ATS in its last 38 SU
wins off a previous home loss, and Brett Favre at his best home in
December, we don't see any predatory Cats on our list of pets this
week. Thermometer check, please.
Denver over ARIZONA by 3
Now that Jay Cutler has broken his road maiden (although he's still
looking for the winners circle), we don't see any reason not to back
him in this game. We quoted the winners vs losers record in the last
quarter of the season earlier. Now, add these numbers to the mix:
Denver has beaten Arizona fi ve consecutive times by a combined
score of 174-49. The Broncos are 29-2-2 ATS in their last 33 SU road
wins and Arizona is 4-20 SU in their last 24 games against winning
teams. Don't forget, the Cardinals have allowed season-high yardage
on fi ve different occasions this year and were outstatted in each of
their last two upset wins.
3★ BEST BET
SAN DIEGO over Kansas City by 17
Here is another revenge game worth looking at. Kansas City is
a perfect 0-12 SU and 2-10 ATS in its last 12 road games against
.700 or better avenging teams. San Diego is 78-8-3 ATS in its last
89 SU revenge wins, including 18-1-1 ATS in its last 20. Although
the Chiefs are fi ghting for their lives, San Diego is fi ghting for
the number one seed in the AFC and the Chargers are better
on both sides of the ball. Oh, yea, the Chiefs are 4-56 ATS in
their last 60 SU losses against avenging foes. No masterpiece
for KC here.
OAKLAND over St Louis by 1
These games come pop up every year around Christmas and they
generate the same interest as wrapping paper after the gift has
been opened. Neither team deserves consideration. Saint Louis is 5-
19 ATS in its last 24 non-division road games and Oakland is a lowly
6-14 ATS in its last 20 at home. The one difference is that Oakland
is doing better than expected. The Rams, the most talented losing
team in the NFL, are a huge disappointment
Monday, December 18th
INDIANAPOLIS over Cincinnati by 6
Now this game will draw more interest than a Warren Buffet stock
tip. These two played last year in Cincinnati in late November and
went at it tooth and nail from the opening gun. The Colts prevailed
45-37 in what was one of the most exciting games of the year. Expect
more excitement and, maybe the same type of result. Cincinnati
has the worst pass defense in the NFL and will be trying to stop its
second best pass offense. For you statties, Indy is averaging 31 ppg
in its last 16 at home. Cincy is 3-24-1 ATS when allowing 28 or more
to non-division teams.
posted by phantom
Dec. 16 2006 12:30am