NFL WEEK 14
THURSDAY, DECEMBER 7 THE GOLD SHEET
*PITTSBURGH 20 - Cleveland 19--No immediate line on this game due to Charlie Frye's wrist injury, but strong-armed second-year QB Derek Anderson (12 of 21, 2 TDP) contributed mightily as Browns overcame a 14-point deficit vs. K.C. And hammering RB Droughns (70 YR, 48 receiving) is back to keep defenses honest. Ben Roethlisberger had two more ints. last week (now 21!) Prior to last week's 20-3 final vs. T.B., the Steelers had gone "over" 14-0-1 their last 15 at Heinz Field! TV--NFL NETWORK
(06-Pitt 24-CLE. 20...P.23-15 C.29/99 P.20/77 P.25/44/3/261 C.17/27/0/203 P.0 C.2)
(05-PITT 34-Cle. 21...P.25-16 P.41/159 C.19/61 C.17/34/1/242 P.18/27/0/223 P.0 C.1)
(05-Pitt 41-CLE. 0...P.20-12 P.35/209 C.19/55 P.14/21/0/248 C.20/39/0/123 P.1 C.1)
(06-Pitt -3' 24-20; 05-PITT -7' 34-21, Pitt -7 41-0...SR: Cleveland 55-54)
SUNDAY, DECEMBER 10
KANSAS CITY 20 - Baltimore 13--Second chance for Baltimore to clinch the AFC North, but victory not so likely vs. defensively-improved K.C., which had limited four straight foes to 17 points or fewer prior to last week's loss in Cleveland. Even vs. Ravens' rugged defense (No. 2 vs. the run), Chiefs own the rush edge with Larry Johnson (1312 YR), who has adapted well as K.C. has fought through OL retirements & injuries, plus TY's QB changes. Chiefs 11-3 last 14 vs. spread at home; Balt. "under" 18 of last 24 away. (04-Kansas City +5' 27-24...SR: Kansas City 3-0)
Atlanta 23 - TAMPA BAY 10--Atlanta hammered T.B. in the pits in first meeting, rushing for 306 yards, only to see then kicker Koenen miss four FGs! Veteran Morten Anderson was signed shortly after the game. Bucs' defense is well-conceived and fights hard, but its numbers continue to decline due to key injuries. Michael Vick had only eight completions last week, but Falcs (6-6) came back from the "dead" (down 14-0 after 1 Q in Wash.) to remain in wildcard race.
(06-ATL. 14-T. Bay 3...22-22 A.44/306 T.16/40 T.28/53/3/311 A.10/16/1/76 A.1 T.0)
(05-T. Bay 30-ATL. 27...A.26-15 A.36/150 T.27/140 A.21/38/0/293 T.11/19/1/118 T.0 A.2)
(05-T.B. 27-Atl. 24 (OT)...T.30-19 T.37/174 A.36/154 T.29/42/2/270 A.16/26/0/127 T.1 A.1)
(06-ATLANTA -5 14-3; 05-T. Bay +6 30-27, T. BAY -3 27-24 (OT)...SR: Tampa Bay 15-11)
OVER THE TOTAL Minnesota 28 - DETROIT 20--Vikes have won last nine meetings SU. And Brad Johnson (4 ints. last week at Chicago) will be happy to be facing Detroit's crippled defense this week, while RBs C. Taylor & C. Fason (combined 174 YR vs. Bears!) should enjoy the Lions' makeshift DL. Detroit's offense is piling up some very negative "Martz-ian" statistics, with QB Kitna throwing an int. in 11 straight games and 16 overall. Brad Childress' program ahead of fellow rookie mentor Rod Marinelli at this time (Lions only 3 covers TY).
(06-MINN. 26-Det. 17...M.18-13 M.30/135 D.11/16 M.26/34/1/201 D.23/42/3/201 M.2 D.1)
(05-MINN. 27-Det. 14...D.20-19 M.35/164 D.20/58 D.28/48/2/231 M.15/22/0/121 M.1 D.1)
(05-Minn. 21-DET. 16...M.20-19 D.23/105 M.32/103 M.17/23/0/242 D.17/35/1/118 M.0 D.0)
(06-MINN. -6' 26-17; 05-MINN. -1 27-14, Minn. -2' 21-16...SR: Minnesota 59-29-2)
Tennessee 26 - HOUSTON 17--Huge emotional game for Houston native Vince Young, back in his hometown for the first time as a pro. And, with the loss of Mike Flanagan Nov. 26, the injury-cursed Texans are missing their C and both starting OTs after 11 games. The scrambling Young is now 5-3 SU (7-1 vs. the spread) as a starter, and he and RB Travis Henry (849 YR) are inspiring the still-rebuilding Tennessee defense up to play with increasing grit. Titans "over" 9 of 12 TY.
(06-TENN. 28-Hou. 22...H.26-10 H.26/148 T.27/111 H.33/46/2/279 T.7/15/0/86 T.0 H.3)
(05-Tenn. 34-HOU. 20...T.22-14 H.28/161 T.31/90 T.22/31/0/220 H.18/27/1/96 T.0 H.0)
(05-TENN. 13-Hou. 10...T.15-12 H.26/152 T.30/93 T.18/30/0/208 H.17/26/0/82 T.0 H.0)
(06-TENN. -3 28-22; 05-Tenn. +3 34-20, TENN. -6 13-10...SR: Tennessee 7-2)
NY Giants 20 - CAROLINA 17--TY's OL injuries have been limiting Carolina's once-powerful ground game, with QB Jake Delhomme often "trying to do too much by himself," in Favre-ian fashion. Despite their media bickering, the late loss last week, and DE Mathias Kiwanuka's personal "catch & release" program (a sack last week, an int. this week), the Giants haven't quit, with this contest now a major key to their wildcard hopes. N.Y. welcomed back DE Osi Umenyiora & CB Sam Madison last week, and there's a chance Michael Strahan might return this week.
(05-Car. 23-GIANTS 0...C.23-9 C.45/223 N.13/41 C.15/22/0/112 N.10/18/3/91 C.0 N.2)
(05-Carolina +2' 23-0 (NFC Playoffs)...SR: Carolina 3-0)
*DALLAS 27 - New Orleans 24--Would like this one better if Saints' (5-1 as dog) WRs Horn (groin) & Colston (ankle; check status of both) able to return. And this is teacher vs. pupil, as N.O. rookie HC Sean Payton (former Dallas offensive asst.) challenges mentor Parcells. Cowboys hot (4 straight wins; 5-1 with Tony Romo at the controls). But the kid QB tossed 2 ints. vs. 0 TDs last week at NYG, and the heady Drew Brees now making the most of the dynamic Reggie Bush (4 total TDs; 9 for 131 receiving last week vs. S.F.). TV--NBC
(2006 Preseason: Dallas -3 beat New Orleans 30-7 at Shreveport)
(04-New Orleans +7 27-13...SR: Dallas 14-7)
Buffalo 21 - NY JETS 20--Surprising N.Y. (7-5) fighting hard to stay in wildcard race, but don't anticipate any easy victory vs. stubborn, improved, young Buffalo, which has covered 5 straight, including four in a row as an underdog. QB J.P. Losman (66%, 5 TDs, 4 ints. last 4 games) playing with greater confidence, making good use of supporting cast of RB McGahee and WRs Evans & Price. Despite Chad Pennington's wonderful touch on his passes, he has thrown 13 ints. (3 more than Losman).
(06-Jets 28-BUF. 20...B.26-15 B.31/169 N.24/74 B.22/39/1/306 N.19/29/0/182 N.0 B.2)
(05-BUF. 27-Jets 17...B.24-17 B.39/177 N.21/149 B.18/26/2/164 N.12/26/2/126 B.0 N.1)
(05-JETS 30-Buf. 26...B.21-12 B.30/159 N.27/81 B.23/37/4/172 N.11/20/0/126 N.0 B.0)
(06-NY Jets +5' 28-20; 05-BUFFALO -3 27-17, NY JETS +1' 30-26...SR: Buffalo 50-42)
UNDER THE TOTAL Indianapolis 19 - JACKSONVILLE 13--Indy failed its first chance to clinch the AFC South last week despite racking up 451 yards of offense in Tennessee. And HC Tony Dungy was fairly furious that his team blew a 14-point lead for the first time in his tenure with the Colts. More importantly, Indy is now tied with S.D. for the overall AFC lead. So look for a more focused effort from Manning & Co. this week vs. one of their toughest foes (last 6 meetings vs. Jags decided by 7 points or fewer). Indy "under" 4 of last 5 TY; 19 of last 30 overall.
(06-INDY 21-Jack. 14...J.20-14 J.40/191 I.20/63 I.14/31/0/209 J.16/28/2/106 I.0 J.0)
(05-INDY 10-Jack. 3...I.18-12 I.38/146 J.24/128 J.16/29/0/175 I.13/28/1/122 I.0 J.0)
(05-Indy 26-JACK. 18...I.25-18 I.34/99 J.23/74 I.24/37/0/300 J.26/35/0/250 I.1 J.3)
(06-INDY -6' 21-14; 05-INDY -9 10-3, Indy -8 26-18...SR: Indianapolis 9-2)
WASHINGTON 24 - Philadelphia 17--Another head-scratching performance last week by Washington, which got 155 YR from Ladell Betts and 7 receptions for 123 yards and a TD from the previously-injured Santana Moss and still managed to blow a 14-0 lead vs. the Falcons & Mike Vick, who had only eight completions the entire game. But after the dynamic Vick, Redskin defense will be happy to see retread Jeff Garcia. At least Jason Campbell (18 of 38, 2 ints. last week) has an upside.
(06-PHIL. 27-Wash. 3...P.17-15 W.31/146 P.34/145 P.12/26/0/220 W.16/32/1/132 P.0 W.0)
(05-WASH. 17-Phil. 10...17-17 W.29/78 P.23/45 P.22/35/1/291 W.21/29/0/215 W.1 P.0)
(05-Wash. 31-PHIL. 20...P.18-14 W.36/151 P.25/96 P.21/42/2/239 W.9/25/1/128 W.0 P.4)
(06-PHIL. -7 27-3; 05-WASH. -3 17-10, Wash. -7' 31-20...SR: Washington 75-63-5)
CINCINNATI 27 - Oakland 10--Recent bed & breakfast manager Tom Walsh is out as Raiders' offensive coordinator, with former Chicago o.c. John Shoop in. Too bad Oakland (last in offense; next to last in scoring, most sacks allowed) is still banged up in the OL and with top RB LaMont Jordan likely done for the year. Meanwhile Cincy's defense playing its ball of season, with only 7 points allowed last two games. Carson (22 TDP), T.J. (Houshmanzadeh) & the Johnsons (Chad, Rudi & Jeremi) too much for Raider stop unit without more help from Oakland offense (only 35 2nd-H points all year!).
(03-OAKLAND -12 23-20...SR: Oakland 19-7)
MIAMI 20 - New England 17--Dolphins blew their chance to get back to .500 last week, but they should have better luck as a home dog vs. the injury-thinned N.E. defense missing the intimidating Rodney Harrison and productive Junior Seau. And Pats' OL fighting through its own injuries. Insiders report Bill Belichick worried about the frequent holes in his secondary. And despite a couple costly, rash throws last week, Joey Harrington has 10 TDP in his last 6 starts (a pace equal to 27 TDs for the season).
(06-N. ENG. 20-Miami 10...M.19-17 N.34/79 M.21/62 M.26/41/2/221 N.16/29/0/134 N.1 M.1)
(05-N. Eng. 23-MIAMI 16...M.22-19 N.25/91 M.25/77 M.25/47/1/360 N.21/36/2/274 N.0 M.1)
(05-Miami 28-N. ENG. 26...M.25-16 M.40/148 N.28/55 M.22/35/0/230 N.14/28/1/204 M.0 N.0)
(06-N. ENG. -9' 20-10; 05-N. Eng. -3 23-16, Miami +6 28-26...SR: Miami 47-35)
Green Bay 26 - SAN FRANCISCO 24--Packer defense (most points allowed in NFL) very generous. G.B. trailed Jets 31-0 at intermission at Lambeau last week, but its offense still has enough firepower to make trouble for vulnerable S.F. stop unit if Brett Favre takes proper care with the ball, which he should do after last week's Packer embarrassment. He's still way ahead of Alex Smith. G.B. rookie HC McCarthy was the Niners offensive coordinator LY. (03-GREEN BAY -4 20-10...SR: Green Bay 31-26-1)
ARIZONA 27 - Seattle 24--Arizona's several near-misses TY might end up costing Dennis Green his job (insider's say it will take a Houdini-like escape for Green to survive). But the Cards' quick-pass attack is a good way to attack the erratic-tackling Seattle secondary, one of the prime culprits in the Seahawks' 1-5 spread record on the road. RBs E. James & Shipp combined for a confidence-building 136 YR & 3 TDs last week vs. the vulnerable Rams; they should help rookie QB Leinart & classy WRs Boldin & Fitzgerald in this one.
(06-SEA. 21-Ariz. 10...S.20-17 S.36/146 A.20/65 S.12/27/2/195 A.24/38/1/191 S.0 A.1)
(05-SEA. 37-Ariz. 12...S.29-15 S.37/163 A.21/90 S.21/32/0/284 A.18/36/1/176 S.0 A.1)
(05-Sea. 33-ARIZ. 19...A.23-22 S.33/208 A.20/71 A.29/48/3/307 S.13/20/0/158 S.0 A.1)
(06-SEATTLE -7 21-10; 05-SEATTLE -6 37-12, Seattle -4 33-19...SR: Seattle 8-7)
SAN DIEGO 27 - Denver 13--San Diego (tied with Indy at 10-2) now picturing AFC home-field edge clearly, especially with Shawne Merriman (2 sacks in his return last week) back in the fold and eager to test Denver rookie QB Jay Cutler and Bronco LT Pears. In the 4 games Merriman missed due to suspension, the Chargers gave up 86 ypg more on defense. If Denver MLB Al Wilson injured (check status), L. Tomlinson (26 TDs) might get the 3 he needs for a new record.
(06-S. Diego 35-DEN. 27...S.21-20 D.35/158 S.29/125 S.19/26/2/217 D.13/28/1/168 S.0 D.0)
(05-DEN. 20-S. Diego 17...D.21-15 D.26/98 S.24/79 D.23/37/1/233 S.15/23/1/134 D.1 S.1)
(05-Den. 23-S. DIEGO 7...D.17-15 D.40/157 S.20/91 S.20/36/1/145 D.10/22/0/84 D.0 S.1)
(06-San Diego +2' 35-27; 05-DENVER -3 20-17, Denver +10' 23-7...SR: Denver 52-40-1)
MONDAY, DECEMBER 11
*Chicago 20 - ST. LOUIS 17--Somewhat amazingly (especially to Bears fans), Lovie Smith says Rex Grossman (only 6 of 19 last week, 3 ints.; 18 turnovers last 7 games!) "is" his QB, despite the fact that the Chicago defense/ST combination out-scored the offense again. But whatever his problems, they're not as bad as those in St. Louis, where poor Marc Bulger, working behind a makeshift OL, has been sacked 17 times the last four games. Bulger called out a few teammates after last week's loss. Yet, if he gets just a little protection, RB S. Jackson & WRs Holt & Bruce help St. Louis avoid embarrassment on national TV. CABLE TV--ESPN (03-St. Louis -6 23-21...SR: Chicago 48-35-3)
MONDAY NIGHT HISTORY
Chicago and St. Louis on Monday Night
Chicago is 7-21 SU and 8-19-1 vs. the pointspread on the road on MNF;
10-11 SU and 7-13-1 vs. the pointspread at home on MNF.
St. Louis is 17-12 SU and 15-14 vs. the pointspread at home on MNF;
9-14 SU and 8-15 vs. the pointspread on the road on MNF.
NFL KEY RELEASES
ATLANTA by 13 over Tampa Bay
TENNESSEE by 9 over Houston
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
OVER THE TOTAL in the Minnesota-Detroit game
UNDER THE TOTAL in the Indianapolis-Jacksonville game
posted by phantom
5 replies
-
0 likes
Power Sweep
4 Star Minny
4 Star N E
2 Star Tenn
2 Star Tampa
System Play Cinn
O/u's
3 Star Packers Over
3 Star Indy Over
3 Star Cinn Under
2 Star Bucs Under
2 Star Tenn Under
posted by phantom
Dec. 7 2006 4:43pm -
0 likes
Pointwise
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2 Dallas 33-20
3 Jack 24-20
4 NE 27-17
4 ST L 20-23
4 KC 23-16
posted by phantom
Dec. 7 2006 4:43pm -
0 likes
Marc Lawrence - Playbook - 2006/12/06 10:39
Thursday, December 7th
PITTSBURGH over Cleveland by 8
Since a mortifying 20-point home loss to the Browns in November
of 2003, the only loss in the last 13 games to its turnpike rival,
Pittsburgh has won and covered six straight in the series. Revenge
exacted, to say the least. Revenge apparently doesn't mean that
much to the Browns. They are 1-10 SU and 2-9 ATS as a division
avenger in their last 11 opportunities, losing the fi ve road games by
an average of 11 points each. First road game in a month doesn't
turn out so good for the Frye'd out Browns.
Sunday, December 10th
KANSAS CITY over Baltimore by 3
Despite what their 9-2 SU mark implies, the Ravens are a dismal
2-17 SU on the road against winning teams. The prospects for an
improvement on that record aren't good considering that Kansas
City is 14-2 SU in its last 16 home games. Included in those 16
Chief wins is a 10-1 ATS mark against .400 or better opponents
and an 11-2 ATS log when an underdog or when favored by -7
or less. The biggest obstacle comes in the form of Brian Billick,
a featured SMART BOX coach. With trends on one side and the
better defensive dog in its primary role on the other, we'll watch
for now.
TAMPA BAY over Atlanta by 1
The Falcons sure have had their troubles with Tampa, garnering
just three wins and four covers in their last 12 meetings with the
Bucs. But this is probably the worst Tampa team in those 12 games
and Atlanta, desperate to remain in the playoff picture, needs this
game badly. The Falcons have a huge rush advantage and it could
come into play here with Tampa 12-30 ATS at home when it loses
the ground game. Bucs, though, dress up as an UGLY PIG home
dog and you know how we feel about those porkers.
DETROIT over Minnesota by 3
As bad as the Lions have been over the past decade and a half
(119-172 SU), they have painted one positive picture. They are
a rock-solid 28-12 ATS at home with revenge against division
opponents, including 12-4 ATS when playing off BB SU losses.
Minnesota is looking at a negative picture. The Vikings, when
favored or when an underdog of +6 or less, are 4-15 ATS in the
second of BB road games off a division game, including 1-8 ATS
off a loss. They ran up and down the fi eld against the Bears and
did everything but win last week, outgaining Chicago 348-107.
They could be demoralized here.
HOUSTON over Tennessee by 4
Mighty Vince Young has come to the rescue of the Titans. On the
heels of last week's stunning win over the high-powered Colts,
Tennessee has now won three in a row – all as underdogs. The
bad news is that this is not a good role for NFL road teams, as they
are 4-13 ATS in this role when playing without rest. The problem,
though, is Houston is also off an upset win... and about as phony
a win as you'll fi nd (beat Oakland 23-14; lost the stats 302-124).
We're in the fi nal quarter of the season and each team has won
the stats in just three games for the year. No thanks.
CAROLINA over NY Giants by 1
Don't worry about a Dallas hangover for the Giants. They've won
11 of their last 14 the week after playing the Cowboys, including a
perfect 5-0 SU on the road. Worry more about the mental for the
G-Men. A last-second loss last week makes it four in a row in the
tank as they dip to 6-6 on the year. Carolina is erasing its home
favorite bugaboo (3-1 ATS last four) and needs this win just as bad
as New York does. Rest assured, this will be a war.
3* BEST BET
New Orleans over DALLAS by 3
Unlike the Giants, the Cowboys have trouble getting back
on track after playing the Giants. They are a pitiful 7-16 ATS
against non-division team after playing the G-Men, including
an equally bad 7-16-1 ATS mark against winning non-division
foes. New Orleans has a lot less trouble with the Cowboys,
winning four and covering fi ve straight in the series. Saints
have been sterling on the road this season (5-1 ATS) and are 5-1
ATS in their last six against NFC East opposition. Bottom line is
New Orleans is just too jazzy as a dog (6-1 ATS this season) to
be taking a touchdown. We're marching with the Saints
Buffalo over NY JETS by 1
The Jets have won seven and covered six of the last eight meetings
with the Bills on this fi eld, but we have to wonder about laying
points with a team that has yet to win the stats in any of its four
division games this season. In addition, New York has come up on
the short end of the running game in NINE consecutive division
games. If it happens again today, Buffalo's 20-5 ATS mark as a road
dog when it outrushes its opponent could come into play. The Bills
didn't quit against the Chargers and they won't here, either.
4* BEST BET
JACKSONVILLE over Indianapolis by 10
Defense does wonders in the NFL. Last week the Jags stifl ed
Miami and they've done just the same against the Colts of late.
We're not sure what Jack Del Rio's secret is but Jacksonville
has not allowed the high-scoring Colts to get more than 28 in
any of the their ten meetings as division rivals. Since 2000, the
Colts are 5-17 ATS when they fail to score more than 28 in a
division game. On the other side of that coin, the Jaguars are
18-7 ATS as an underdog when they allow 28 or less, including
a near-perfect 8-1 ATS on their home fi eld. Clincher is Colts
head coach Tony Dungy is a SMART BOX fade and the Colts
are an Awesome Angle (see page 2) fade as well. Playing with
same season revenge, Jack is a live home dog.
WASHINGTON over Philadelphia by 1
Live is not an adjective used often in reference to either of these
injury-decimated teams, but we heard that they were going ahead
with the game anyway. Philly owns the recent edge in the series
with 20 wins in the last 28 meetings (16-10-2 ATS), including a
27-3 trouncing earlier this season. Saving grace for the Redskins,
who are the only team in this game without a zombie playing
QB, is their 5 straight covers at home with division revenge. We
question their mental, though, after blowing a 14-0 lead on this
fi eld to the Falcons last week.
CINCINNATI over Oakland by 7
The Raiders have been money makers this season. In their last
seven games as an underdog, they have covered six without ever
allowing more than 21 points. Cincinnati is 9-36-2 ATS as a home
favorite when scoring 21 or less. Oakland has the far superior
defense here, specializing in the one area that Cincinnati must have
to be successful, the passing game. We've been riding the Pirate
ship for awhile and doing pretty well with it. With Marvin Lewis
residing in the SMART BOX this week, look for the Black-n-Silver
to move to 6-0 ATS as dogs of four or more here today.
New England over MIAMI by 3
Miami has never been a fun team for New England to play. Since
September of 2001, the Pats are 22-3 SU against division rivals
other than the Dolphins and a disproportionate 7-4 SU against
Miami itself. Since it appears that the Dolphins are on another
late-season tear (last week aside), it would be foolish to take
the Pats and lay points here. However, since Belichick is 39-9 SU
after game ten of the season, including 13-4 ATS vs division foes,
it hardly makes sense to fade New England in this spot. All that
being said, we'll pass.
SAN FRANCISCO over Green Bay by 7
Like Oakland, the Forty Niners have been making money as an
underdog (four straight ATS wins before New Orleans last week).
They have been favored just once this season but handled the role
well by dispatching the Raiders by two touchdowns. Here's the
trick to a San Francisco pick. If you played the Niners against every
losing team they played this season, you would be 5-1 ATS at this
moment. The Packers are under .500 and folding like a house of
cards. With Frisco zeroed into our INCREDIBLE STAT OF THE WEEK
(page 2), there is only one way to look here.
Seattle over ARIZONA by 1
Seattle battled Denver tooth-n-nail last Sunday night and take to
the road again this week. With that we remind you that defending
Super Bowl losers are money burners when installed as road
favorites, going 35-67-3 ATS since 1980. Sure, the Seahawks are
7-1 SU and 6-2 ATS in its last eight meetings with Arizona but this
year's Seahawks have a fl aw, one that could be fatal come playoff
time. Heading into the Denver duel, the Gulls had ONE road ITS win
this season and that came in the opener against god-awful Detroit.
Zona is showing signs of coming to life and plays with same season
revenge. No signs of Seattle on our ticket this week.
5* BEST BET
Denver over SAN DIEGO by 10
Remember that Denver was ahead of San Diego 24-7 in the
earlier meeting this season. Remember also that the Chargers
outscored the Broncos 28-3 over the fi nal quarter and a half,
and they did it in Denver. Remember that Denver is 21-7 SU
(19-7-2 ATS) in its last 28 division revenge games, including
12-1 SU and 11-2 ATS in its last 13. Cutler looks like the real
deal (his QB rating led all NFL signal callers this preseason),
and the Broncos' backs are to the division wall. With San Diego
piling up the air miles of late, and the fact that Mike Shanahan
shines (5-0-1 ATS) in his NFL career as a dog in games off BB
losses, we'll play the re-mem-mem-re-memba-member game
with Denver here today.
Monday, December 11th
Chicago over ST LOUIS by 6
Other than the Packer pulverization in the season opener, the Bears
have struggled mightily on the road, despite their gaudy 5-1 mark.
A late turnover fl urry helped them pull away from the Giants but
the other four road games were three shaky wins and a four-point
loss that should have been a 30-point beat. Last week they won by
double-digits over the Vikings despite being soundly outplayed on
the fi eld. Saint Louis, however, doesn't offer much in the way of
resistance. The Rams have been outrushed in 10 of their 11 games
this season (they beat Detroit by 13 yards). Chicago is 25-5-2 ATS
on the NFC road when it wins the ground game, including 13-1-1
when coming off a division game. Tough call.
Awesome Angle Of The Week
PLAY AGAINST any .750 > NFL
road team in Games 13-16 off a
SUATS loss if they scored 24 < pts
in the loss and won > 10 games
last season vs a .333 > opponent.
PLAY AGAINST:INDIANAPOLIS COLTS
ATS W-L Record Since 1980:11-0(100%)
Smart Box
Coaching Down the Stretch
HOME
Belichick (NE) 14-6
Billick (Bal) 11-5
Lewis (Cin) 0-5-1
Shell (Oak) 4-8-1
AWAY
Billick (Bal) 5-1
Gibbs (Was) 17-8-2
Dungy (Ind) 6-13
FAVORITE
Lewis (Cin) 2-4-1
Shell (Oak) 4-9-1
DOG
Gibbs (Was) 11-3
Parcells (Dal) 19-9
Gruden (TB ) 4-8
The fi nal four weeks of the
NFL season are tantamount
to the stretch run of a Graded
Stakes race. It’s where races
are won and lost.
It’s been said many times
over that if you don’t have
the horse you won’t win the
race. For the most part this
adage is right on the money.
There are times, though,
when the ride he’s given
by the jockey can put the
team in the winners circle.
That’s why good jockeys are
almost always atop quality
horses in big races.
The same holds true for
head coaches. They are
the pilots, guiding their
teams with game plans
designed for success or
failure, whichever the case
may be.
Listed below are the best
and worst head coaches and
their NFL career ATS records
during Games 13 thru 16,
minimum 6 results (current
affi liation in parenthesis).
We recommend you keep
this list right beside your
schedule as it’s as good
a way to fi nd the winner's
circle as any at this stage of
the season...
posted by phantom
Dec. 7 2006 4:44pm -
0 likes
Sports Marketwatch: NFL Week 14 - Games to Watch
12/08/2006 11:01 AM EST
by Daniel Fabrizio
SportsInsights.com
Welcome to this week's edition of the Sports Marketwatch, where Daniel Fabrizio, founder of SportsInsights.com, gives sports fans unprecedented insight into the NFL point-spread market. If you ever wanted to know what was really happening on the sportsbook side, you now have an all-access pass with Sports Marketplace!
Every week he speaks directly with the line managers at SportsInsights.com partners Pinnacle, Bowmans, 5Dimes, BetUs and Oasis about which games the public is chasing and the Sharps are pounding.
Sports Marketwatch – NFL Week 14
Recapping Last Week
NFL Week 13 was a “grind-it-outâ€Â
posted by phantom
Dec. 8 2006 1:40pm -
0 likes
GOLD SHEET CKO
11 *ARIZONA over Seattle
Late Score Forecast:
*ARIZONA 27 - Seattle 20
(Sunday, December 10)
Good matchup for the underdog Cardinals' offense, featuring lots of quick
reads and short, accurate throws to take advantage of he strengths of
developing rookie QB Matt Leinart. The former USC star showed lots of
improvement in passing for 405 yards on the road two weeks ago at Minnesota,
and he notched his first road win last Sunday in St. Louis in a no-turnover,
one-sack performance. Seattle's defense has had tackling problems in the
secondary virtually all season, an advantage for Arizona's fine WRs. And the
Seahawks often surviving by the thinnest of margins TY, with 4 of their 8
wins coming on last-second FGs.
10 *SAN DIEGO over Denver
Late Score Forecast:
*SAN DIEGO 31 - Denver 13
(Sunday, December 10)
With ideas of home-field advantage throughout the AFC playoffs and the
hottest player in the league (LaDainian Tomlinson; 26 TDs), look for the
Chargers to have little mercy on Denver rookie QB Jay Cutler (10 of 21, 2
ints., 1 lost fumble in his debut last week) in his first road start. S.D.
hasn't swept the Broncos since 1982, but they've already got the hard part
done with their 35-27 victory in Denver. Intimidating OLB Shawne Merriman
(10.5 sacks) is now back in the fold, and DE Luis Castillo & S Marlon McCree
(check status) are soon to follow. Hard times for Cutler & the Broncs.
TOTALS: OVER (41.5) in Tennessee-Houston game-Titans have gone "over" 9 of 12
times TY; Houston happy to be facing an easier defense this week and will
fight to avoid being upstaged by Houston native Vince Young at their home
stadium.
HONORABLE MENTION (Nine-rated games): Kansas City (-2.5) vs. Baltimore-QB/RB
combo of Green/L. Johnson superior to Baltimore's McNair/J. Lewis; Chiefs
11-3 vs. spread last 14 at home. GREEN BAY (+4.5) at San
Francisco-Embarrassed Packers hit bottom last week; rebuilding young Niners
not yet so sturdy to be laying significant points.
posted by phantom
Dec. 8 2006 3:53pm