18 replies
-
0 likes
THE GOLD SHEET
THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 30
*CINCINNATI 24 - Baltimore 17--Last stand for defending AFC North champ Cincy, three games behind Ravens with five to play (but only one game out of wildcard position). Defense and OL still shorthanded, but Bengals' balanced firepower (34 ppg last 3) must still be respected. Insiders say Baltimore's DBs attempt to gamble too often trying to force turnovers (Ravens lead NFL at +15). And Ravens only 4-12 vs. spread last 16 on the road. TV--NFL Network
(06-BALT. 26-Cincy 20...B.22-17 B.38/129 C.22/92 B.21/31/0/245 B.12/26/2/183 B.0 C.1)
(05-Cincy 21-BALT. 9...C.25-17 B.24/124 C.34/98 C.19/26/0/231 B.19/31/0/116 C.1 B.1)
(05-CINCY 42-Balt. 29...23-23 C.32/135 B.33/133 C.22/30/1/302 B.18/32/2/189 C.2 B.1)
(06-BALT. -3 26-20; 05-Cincy -3 21-9, CINCY -9' 42-29...SR: Baltimore 13-8)
SUNDAY, DECEMBER 3
CHICAGO 31 - Minnesota 10--First home game in four weeks for the Bears. Rex Grossman has thrown 11 of his 14 ints. on the road; just 3 at home (albeit in last home start vs. Miami). With its defense energized by the crowd, Chicago is 4-1 vs. the spread at home; avg. score 33-12. Yes, Vikes are No. 1 vs. the run, and they did have the Bears on the ropes in the fourth Q in Week Three in the Twin Cities, losing only 19-16. But the once-stubborn Vikes have yielded 24 ppg last three; no covers their last 5!.
(06-Chi. 19-MINN. 16...C.19-11 M.24/97 C.21/51 C.23/41/2/274 M.21/31/0/189 C.0 M.2)
(05-CHI. 28-Minn. 3...16-16 C.30/95 M.19/80 M.26/49/2/203 C.16/25/1/97 C.2 M.0)
(05-MINN. 34-Chi. 10...M.22-13 C.33/154 M.18/149 M.27/40/0/247 C.14/23/0/97 M.0 C.0)
(06-Chi. -3' 19-16; 05-CHICAGO -3 28-3, MINNESOTA -5 34-10...SR: Minnesota 48-41-2)
PITTSBURGH 26 - Tampa Bay 21--Steelers, rather amazingly, have gone "over" 14-0-1 their last 15 at Heinz Field! Must foresee a fired-up effort after HC Cowher used "pitiful" (among other words) to describe their poor performance week ago in Baltimore, where once-proud OL allowed team-record 9 sacks. Defense (check status of S Polamalu), however, down from LY, allowing opportunities for well-rested Bucs' inconsistent, but hard-trying, young offensive group, now led by Pittsburgh native QB Gradkowski.
(02-Pittsburgh +4' 17-7...SR: Pittsburgh 6-1)
ST. LOUIS 27 - Arizona 16--Cardinals 1-4 vs. spread on road TY (5-11 last 16). That lone road cover TY due in great part to two 99-yard returns (one kickoff, one fumble) last week at Minnesota. But even those returns and Matt Leinart's 405 YP weren't enough for victory. And Arizona has lost top pass rusher and team leader DE Bertrand Berry (team-best 6 sacks when injured). Big rush edge for Steven Jackson (906 YR) and Rams, who helped their OL situation last week by moving fading veteran Todd Steussie to LT and inserting rookie 7th-round pick Mark Setterstrom at LG.
(06-St. Lou. 16-ARIZ. 14...A.20-18 A.28/101 S.28/63 S.21/31/0/301 A.19/28/3/246 S.2 A.1)
(05-St. Lou. 17-ARIZ. 12...A.18-16 S.22/108 A.16/82 A.29/42/1/297 S.18/29/1/189 S.0 A.1)
(05-Ariz. 38-ST. LOU. 28...A.27-19 A.26/94 S.12/6 S.33/43/0/347 A.27/39/0/278 A.1 S.2)
(06-St. Louis +4' 16-14; 05-St. Louis +1 17-12, Arizona +9 38-28...SR: St. Louis 31-23-2)
TENNESSEE 27 - Indianapolis 24--Titans now 6-1 vs. spread last 7 games and brimming with confidence after last week's improbable comeback from 3-TD deficit vs. the Giants. And while purists still criticize Vince Young's semi-sidearm delivery, functionalists point out that the accompanying quick delivery (he hit 24 of 35 for 2 TDs vs. N.Y.) is making him more difficult to defend every game, especially considering his scrambling (69 YR last week). Vince & Co. nearly pulled upset at Indy in his second start Oct. 8. RB Henry up to 756 YR. Tennessee "over" 9-2 TY!
(06-INDY 14-Tenn. 13...I.20-15 T.31/214 I.34/154 I.20/31/1/166 T.10/21/1/63 I.1 T.0)
(05-Indy 31-TENN. 10...I.22-18 T.19/109 I.26/100 I.20/27/0/264 T.28/37/1/204 I.0 T.0)
(05-INDY 35-Tenn. 3...I.21-17 I.31/105 T.20/40 T.26/39/0/220 I.13/17/0/187 I.1 T.1)
(06-INDY -18 14-13; 05-Indy -7 31-10, INDY -15' 35-3...SR: Indianapolis 14-10)
MIAMI 20 - Jacksonville 13--Dolphins have used stingy defense, some timely runs by Ronnie Brown, and key throws by Joey Harrington (3 TDP in Detroit on Thanksgiving) to 4 straight wins and covers. Brown (783 YR) is now week-to-week due to a hand fracture (Sammy Morris an experienced backup). Still, Jags now just 1-4 SU away, and their defense was missing four starters (DE Hayward, MLB M. Peterson, S Darius, CB B. Williams) plus nickel-back Terry Cousin last week in Buffalo. One more win puts Miami at .500 and into playoff contention. (03-Miami -3' 24-10...SR: Jacksonville 2-1)
(2006 Preseason: Jacksonville +1' beat Miami 31-26 at Miami)
NEW ORLEANS 24 - San Francisco 23--Few concerns about the rebuilt, re-stocked, rejuvenated N.O. offense, with Drew Brees passing for 300+ yards five straight games. But Saints' (1-3 when favored TY) thin defense beginning to be pierced with regularity, as N.O. recently lost games vs. Pittsburgh & Cincy despite a Saints' total offensive output of 1012 yards! Thus, must consider points with ascending S.F., with four straight covers (3-1 SU), powered by irrepressible RB Gore (1177 YR; check reported leg "bruise").
(04-NEW ORLEANS -7' 30-27...SR: San Francisco 45-20-2)
WASHINGTON 24 - Atlanta 17--Pressure continuing to mount on Michael Vick, who gave the unhappy Atlanta crowd a double "single-digit salute" following Falcs 4th straight loss and his 9 of 24 passing performance (166 YR, however) vs. New Orleans. But Vick is hardly to blame for the injuries that have hit the Atlanta DL and DBs. Meanwhile, young QB Jason Campbell holding his own so far (1-1 SU, 1-0-1 vs. spread) as a starter for Washington, with Ladell Betts (104 YR last week) filling in admirably for Clinton Portis.
(03-Washington +3 33-31...SR: Washington 15-4-1)
CLEVELAND 19 - Kansas City 13--The rampaging Larry Johnson has 745 YR in just his last six games. But pointspread rising rapidly on this contest after last week's results. And Browns defense happy to face a ground-oriented team after seeing last week's fleet Cincy WRs. Expect calm HC Crennel to channel WR Braylon Edwards' antics last week into hard-nosed performance for young Browns this week. Cleveland "under" 17-6 last 23 at home; while defensively-improved K.C. "under" 3-0-1 last 4 overall TY.
(03-KANSAS CITY -9' 41-20...SR: Kansas City 9-8-2)
UNDER THE TOTAL NEW ENGLAND 24 - Detroit 6--For some reason, Tom Brady (20-1 SU) excels on artificial turf, which is not good for the Lions (0-5 vs. the spread on the road TY) now that the new surface at Gillette Stadium is FieldTurf. Pats able to subdue the powerful Bears last week despite 5 N.E. giveaways. Lions (11 ppg last 3) not nearly as scary as Chicago. Despite some injuries (check Junior Seau), Pats have held 6 of last 8 foes to 13 points or fewer, going "under" in 9 of 11 TY.
(02-New England -5' 20-12...SR: EVEN 4-4)
San Diego 23 - BUFFALO 22--It was only 41 years ago that young Pittsburgh LB Marty Schottenheimer began his NFL career in Buffalo. He will be glad to have his menacing OLB Shawne Merriman (8½ sacks; check status) back in action after the latter having completed his four-game NFL suspension. But Bills (5-2 as dog TY) fighting to even record at 6-6, RB McGahee (2 TDR last week) back in action, and improving young QB Losman (21 of 28 last week) has engineered late winning drives two straight games!
(05-S. DIEGO 48-Buf. 10...S.28-12 S.34/141 B.13/65 S.28/33/0/337 B.20/36/1/137 S.0 B.1)
(05-SAN DIEGO -11' 48-10...SR: San Diego 20-11-2)
NY Jets 24 - GREEN BAY 21--Packers only 8-14 vs. spread the last 2+ seasons at Lambeau Field (including 4-11-1 as a favorite). And Jets' rebuilding project appears to be ahead of G.B.'s at this stage of the season. Chad Pennington has excellent rapport with WRs Coles (68 recs.) & Cotchery (51), while defense (only 12 ppg last 3) adapting better to new HC Eric Mangini's new schemes. Packer defense a lowly 31st vs. the pass (prior to Monday nighter in Seattle). (02-NY JETS -1 42-17...SR: NY Jets 7-2)
NY GIANTS 23 - Dallas 21--Situation was depressing for N.Y. after Giants blew 21-0 point lead at Tennessee last week, leaving N.Y. fans and critics ranting. But it's the nature of the NFL for embattled teams to rally if they have any character and a modicum of talent. Such are the Giants, still fighting for first place in the NFC East, and loaded with skilled players on offense. Dallas (3 straight wins & covers) has young hero Romo (5 TDP vs. T.B.) rolling, but G-men not about to quit.
(06-Giants 36-DAL. 22...D.21-18 N.39/155 D.21/69 D.21/37/4/310 N.12/26/1/173 N.1 D.0)
(05-DAL. 16-Giants 13 (OT)...D.25-11 D.38/92 N.19/91 D.26/37/1/293 N.14/30/1/179 D.3 N.3)
(05-GIANTS 17-Dal. 10...N.17-16 N.34/127 D.27/81 N.12/31/2/150 D.15/39/2/125 N.0 D.2)
(06-Giants +3' 36-22; 05-DALLAS -3' 16-13 (OT), GIANTS -3 17-10...SR: Dallas 51-35-2)
Houston 17 - OAKLAND 16--Raiders' ranks getting thinner, with the loss of LT Robert Gallery & leading RB LaMont Jordan. Moreover, this is the first time Oakland (2-9) has been favored TY. Houston coach Gary Kubiak, as Mike Shanahan's right-hand man in Denver, is accustomed to success vs. the "Pride and Poise" boys. Despite last week's disappointment at NYJ, Texans (39 of 54 passing) showed they're not about to quit.
(04-HOUSTON +2' 30-17...SR: Houston 1-0)
*DENVER 23 - Seattle 20--After back-to-back losses, Mike Shanahan turning to promising rookie Jay Cutler vs. the non-dominating Seattle defense to see if the rookie QB can re-energize the Bronco offense. Plus, another week of rest should help the sore toes of top RB Tatum Bell (649 YR; out last two games). Normally not a fan of rookie QBs, but desperation effort and Seahawks' road record (0-7-1 vs. spread last
enough to take small (3 points max) risk. TV--NBC (02-Denver -5 31-9...SR: Denver 33-18)MONDAY, DECEMBER 4
*Carolina 24 - PHILADELPHIA 17--Panthers let their guard down again at Washington, as OL, DL (only 1 sack), RBs, and QB Delhomme (2 ints.) all underachieved. Don't expect the same this week vs. crippled Philly, which badly failed its first test without Donovan McNabb. Eagle defense (26th) has been fading vs. the run, which is just what the doctor ordered for Carolina and speedy rookie RB DeAngelo Williams, allowing WRs S. Smith & K. Johnson more freedom in secondary. CABLE TV--ESPN
(04-PHILADELPHIA -9' 30-8...SR: Philadelphia 3-2)
MONDAY NIGHT HISTORY
Carolina and Philadelphia on Monday Night
Carolina is 4-3 straight-up and 4-3 vs. the spread on the road on MNF;
10-5 straight-up and 10-4-1 vs. the spread at home on MNF.
Philadelphia is 14-10 straight-up and 15-9 vs. the spread at home on MNF;
9-10 straight-up and 11-8 vs. the spread on the road on MNF.
NFL KEY RELEASES
CHICAGO by 21 over Minnesota
TENNESSEE by 3 over Indianapolis
CLEVELAND by 6 over Kansas City
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
UNDER THE TOTAL in the Detroit-New England game
THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 30
MAC CHAMPIONSHIP
(at Ford Field - Detroit, Michigan)
*Central Michigan 31 - Ohio 23--Very much respect job Frank Solich has done in reconstructing an Ohio U. program that was 11-35 SU in the 4 years preceding his hiring. Now, vet defense ranks 22nd, and Bobcats boast one of the hottest RBs around (Kalvin McRae 128 ypg rushing, 11 TDs last 7 games). Sr. QB Everson was injured and didn't play in the finale vs. rival Miami-O., giving way to jr. Brad Bower (Illinois transfer), who did a good job running Solich's misdirection attack. However, prefer more balanced CMU in this match on the fast indoor artificial track at Ford Field. Chippewa RS frosh QB LeFevour has thrown for 248 ypg with 18 TDs and just 5 ints. in his last 8 games. Five CMU receivers have 29 or more catches and 4 or more scores. The shifty LeFevour has run for 47 ypg and scored 4 rush TDs in last 6 games, while true frosh RB Archer has 5 rush TDs in his last 3 games. Chippewa star DE Bazuin (hampered by injuries and constant double-teaming) has 8 sacks and leads a defense that yielded just 3.7 ypc (3.5 discounting Michigan game). MAC title games have been high-scoring affairs, averaging 74 ppg last 5, with 4 of those "over" the total. CABLE TV--ESPN
(05-C. MICH. 37-Ohio 10...O.22-16 O.48/196 C.36/157 C.17/26/0/275 O.12/36/1/101 C.0 O.2)
(05-CENTRAL MICHIGAN -6 37-10...SR: Central Michigan 18-4-2)
FRIDAY, DECEMBER 1
CONFERENCE USA CHAMPIONSHIP
(at Robertson Stadium - Houston, Texas)
*Southern Miss 27 - HOUSTON 26--Scouts say Houston happy to get another shot at Southern Miss after dropping earlier decision at Hattiesburg. Still, even though extra week of prep will help, avenging that loss might be easier said than done. QB edge to Coug sr. Kolb (25 TDP, only 3 ints.), a 4-year starter. But versatile Eagle jr. J. Young (2 TDP, 1 TDR last week) closing gap. And big-play ability of UH jr. RB Alridge (647 YR & 6 TDs on better than 10 ypc last 5 games!) notwithstanding, USM true frosh Fletcher (113 ypg rushing) is most consistent ground threat on field. Add to that Eagles' superior athleticism & depth on defense, and small upset no surprise. CABLE TV--ESPN
(06-S. MISS 31-Hou. 27...S.21-17 S.39/145 H.27/38 H.22/39/0/339 S.17/26/0/180 S.1 H.1)
(05-HOU. 27-S. Miss 24...H.25-17 H.47/155 S.26/24 H.24/36/0/315 S.23/45/1/295 H.3 S.1)
(06-USM -1' 31-27; 05-HOU. -2' 27-24 04-USM -17 35-29 (OT) 03-Usm -6' 31-10...SR: USM 7-3)
SATURDAY, DECEMBER 2
Rutgers 24 - WEST VIRGINIA 23--Check status of West Virginia star soph QB Pat White, who was limping heavily at end of last week's home loss to South Florida. HC Rodriguez' intensity should keep Mountaineers from being "flat" after that shocking defeat. But even if White is 100%, still favor upstart Rutgers. Scarlet Knight defense has enough speed & depth in front 7 to keep White & fumble-plagued RB Slaton from running wild. In fact, it's more likely that Rutgers controls pace of game with relentless star soph RB Rice & do-it-all sr. sidekick FB Leonard. And no surprise if maturing Knight soph QB Teel hits some passes against WV's very vulnerable 2ndary now that touted true frosh WR Britt (15 catches for 267 yards last 3 games; 2 TDC last week) has emerged. CABLE TV--ESPN2
(05-W. Va. 27-RUTGERS 14...R.17-15 W.43/236 R.40/124 R.18/31/3/171 W.9/11/0/78 W.0 R.1)
(05-Wvu -3' 27-14 04-Wvu -15 35-30 03-WVU -18 34-19...SR: West Virginia 27-4-2)
Navy 42 - Army 17--Is anything terribly different from recent series meetings dominated by Navy (4 straight one-sided wins and covers; avg. score 44-14)? Not really, at least not since Mids survived midseason QB dilemma and backup pilot Kaheaku-Enhada became comfy at controls of Paul Johnson's potent Navy spread option. No such luck for Army HC Bobby Ross, whose ineffective QB combo (scatter-armed jr. Pevoto & skittish true frosh C. Williams) has combined to toss whopping 22 picks and only 9 TDP, contributing mightily to Black Knights' 6 straight spread defeats. Note reliable Mids (13-2 vs. line last 15 away from Annapolis) have outscored Army-like Duke, Eastern Michigan, & Temple a combined 129-40 in last 3 outings! (at Philadelphia) TV--CBS
(05-Navy 42-Army 23...N.24-20 N.58/490 A.34/82 A.23/35/0/255 N.3/6/0/41 N.1 A.0)
(05-Navy -6 42-23 04-Navy -12' 42-13 03-Navy -23 34-6 all at Phi...SR: Navy 50-49-7)
NEW MEXICO STATE 45 - Louisiana Tech 28--N.M. State had been edging closer, and now that the Aggies have their first win in two years over a Div. I-A foe (although Utah State barely qualifies), must look for NMS to extend its "streak" vs. La Tech. Bulldogs (1-6 vs. line away) dead last in I-A defense, and Aggie QB Chase Holbrook (31 TDs, only 9 ints.; check status) had four TDP before intermission last week. NMS defense fighting hard down stretch despite lack of depth.
(05-LA. TECH 34-Nms 14...L.22-19 L.42/177 N.25/92 N.25/43/4/261 L.22/39/0/249 L.0 N.2)
(05-LOUISIANA TECH -10' 34-14...SR: New Mexico St. 3-2)
CALIFORNIA 42 - Stanford 6--Style points don't matter much in football--unless it's Stanford we're talking about. And seeing is believing in regard to near-unwatchable Cardinal "O," whose near-biblical ineptitude (just 3 offensive TDs since September!) has contributed mightily to sickly 2-9 spread mark and increasing Bay Area chatter that HC Walt Harris might be forced to walk the plank. Not that Cal has been a terribly reliable pointspread proposition itself lately (no covers last 4 in '06, and only 9 of last 26 on board since late '04), but Jeff Tedford has at least made sure to take care of local business in Big Game, winning and covering last 4. Superior Golden Bear firepower gives host a chance to clear sizeable pointspread hurdle and take out frustrations vs. hated rival after bitter losses vs. Arizona & USC.
(05-Cal. 27-STAN. 3...C.19-18 C.43/226 S.37/16 S.24/37/0/228 C.11/19/1/139 C.0 S.1)
(05-Cal. -5 27-3 04-CAL. -24 41-6 03-Cal. -10' 28-16...SR: Stanford 54-43-11)
Southern Cal 33 - UCLA 13--Granted, SC (won and covered impressively last 4) again steaming through tape. But contrary to popular opinion, Trojans aren't being handed a "bye" into national title game vs. Ohio State. Instead, back-to-back season-enders (in even-numbered years) vs. Notre Dame and UCLA have often proven a dicey psychological spot for SC, which has covered both of those vs. its oldest rivals just once since 1974 (even the Leinart-Bush '04 title team couldn't turn trick). Don't expect hungry and vastly-improved Bruin "D" (with more speed than Notre Dame's) to give ground easily. But UCLA hard-pressed TY to match USC playmakers such as WRs Jarrett & S. Smith, and defense could become overtaxed. RBs Gable & Washington have stabilized Trojan ground game. Pete Carroll 5-0 SU, 4-1 vs. spread in series. TV--ABC
(05-S. CAL 66-Ucla 19...S.35-19 S.51/430 U.33/129 S.23/44/1/249 U.14/32/0/146 S.1 U.3)
(05-USC -21 66-19 04-Usc -22' 29-24 03-USC -22' 47-22...SR: Southern Cal 41-27-7)
TCU 38 - Air Force 14--Even if Fisher DeBerry announces retirement before kickoff (as some MWC sources are predicting), hard to envision spent Air Force rallying at this stage after once-promising campaign hit the skids long ago (Falcs 1-7 vs. line last
. Meanwhile, TCU "O" in stride down the stretch after racking up 97 points and more than 600 yards of offense each of last two vs. San Diego State and Colorado State, and Gary Patterson's "D" has the quicks and experience to deal with DeBerry's pet option. Hot Frog sr. QB Ballard (accounted for 9 TDs--6 passing and 3 running--last 2) ending career in style! (05-Tcu 48-A. FORCE 10...24-24 A.55/239 T.42/220 T.22/32/0/326 A.11/22/2/148 T.0 A.0)
(05-Tcu +1 48-10...SR: TCU 3-1-1)
SAN JOSE STATE 27 - Fresno State 16--Recent roles have been reversed for these long-time antagonists this season, and doubt bowl-bound San Jose will pass up chance to gain some payback vs. nemesis Fresno while it can. After all, Bulldogs own just 1 cover TY, and "O" still seeking proper balance to complement RB Wright's (1356 YR) chop-busting presence. Spartan QB Tafralis (66%) more likely than Fresno counterpart Brandstater to make game-deciding plays, especially with star SJSU CB Lowery (8 ints.) effectively "cutting field in half" vs. WAC opponents.
(05-FRES. ST. 45-Sjsu 7...F.30-14 S.31/211 F.51/161 F.23/36/0/370 S.5/23/1/48 F.0 S.0)
(05-FSU -33 45-7 04-Fsu -26 62-28 03-FSU -14 41-7...SR: Fresno State 35-32-3)
*LOUISVILLE 50 - Connecticut 13--Give fiery UConn HC Edsall credit for not letting his Huskies quit this season even though early injuries & attrition left team without much experience or depth. Compelled to lay lumber with Louisville, however. Cards have hopes for BCS bowl and own waaaaay more firepower than visitor, not to mention 15 covers in their last 17 at Papa John's. CABLE TV--ESPN2
(05-Lvl. 30-CONN. 20...L.23-21 L.51/200 C.38/87 L.16/25/1/271 C.18/32/0/255 L.1 C.4)
(05-Louisville -15 30-20...SR: Louisville 2-0)
*SAN DIEGO STATE 21 - Colorado State 17--Hard to make a case for either of these MWC stragglers, so maybe we'll try the "go-against" angle instead. In that case, a slight preference against CSU, on its longest losing streak (6) in Sonny Lubick era and minus an infantry diversion (only 73 ypg & 2.4 ypc!) to prevent opponents from blitzing QB Hanie without fear of consequence. And SDSU at least is at home, where it's won its last 2 league games. But might reconsider tepid Aztec recommendation if Lubick announces retirement (as some MWC scouts forecast) before kickoff.
(05-Sds 30-COLO. ST. 10...C.20-18 S.42/196 C.37/187 S.14/24/0/179 C.19/37/3/165 S.1 C.0)
(05-Sds +7' 30-10 04-Csu +4 21-17 03-CSU -13' 21-6...SR: San Diego St. 13-12)
*HAWAII 49 - Oregon State 30--Big second half exploits by Purdue QB Painter (when Boilermakers scored 35 points in last 30 minutes) suggest d.c. Jerry Glanville's Hawaii's "D" could have similar trouble slowing OSU QB Moore and a Pac-10 offense after subduing a steady diet of less-threatening WAC attacks the last 2 months. But June Jones' Red Gun still gained nearly 700 yards (!) vs. Riveters, and QB Brennan only 4 TDP away from breaking David Klingler's NCAA season-record of 54. With Sun Bowl berth assured and satisfying Civil War triumph over Oregon in satchel, vacationing Beavers could be excused for less-than-focused effort on islands. (DNP...SR: EVEN 3-3)
ADDED GAMES
*La.-Monroe 24 - LA.-LAFAYETTE 23--Believe it or not, ULL can keep faint bowl hopes alive (really!) with win over Bayou State rival. But not so fast, my friends, as hot Monroe (covered last 4) would like nothing more than to return favor vs. one-dimensional Cajuns (only Air Force & Navy have passed for fewer yards) after lopsided home loss LY vs. ULL prevented Warhawks from outright Sun Belt crown and bowl berth. Rampaging ULM RB Dawson (142 ypg last 3) providing effective complement lately for maturing QB Lancaster.
(05-La. Laf. 54-LA.-MON. 21...L.22-14 L.57/343 M.29/66 M.17/37/1/136 L.8/14/0/82 L.1 M.1)
(05-Ull +2' 54-21 04-ULM -4 13-10 03-Ulm +4 45-42...SR: EVEN 20-20)
*Troy 27- FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL 3--With Sun Belt title and trip to New Orleans Bowl riding on outcome, doubt Troy allows itself to over-celebrate after last week's thrilling comeback win (2 TDs in last 2:20!) at Middle Tennessee. Besides, don't want any part of winless and dispirited FIU bunch that has hardly circled the wagons around departing HC Strock (Golden Panthers no covers last 7; only 10 points total--2 ppg--last 5!)
(05-TROY 18-Fiu 13...F.20-14 T.45/123 F.26/28 F.31/51/1/247 T.12/19/1/150 T.2 F.4)
(05-TROY -9 18-13 03-TROY (NL) 21-10...SR: Troy 2-0)
ACC CHAMPIONSHIP
(at Alltel Stadium - Jacksonville, Florida)
Wake Forest 19 - Georgia Tech 16--Looking at individual players, Georgia Tech enjoys some edges in this matchup. Wake has no receiver in class of Calvin Johnson, Jacket jr. Choice is probably best RB on field, and sr. QB Ball is a 4-year starter. But the "whole" really is greater than the "sum of its parts" with can-do Deacons. Wake's banged-up RBs getting healthier, and creative o.c. Lobotzke will find ways to burn the over-pursuing Tech defense on ground. Also, no surprise if composed RS frosh Skinner (Jacksonville native; only 4 ints. TY) wins QB duel, as Ball (6 of 22 for only 42 yards with 2 ints. in 4th straight loss to rival Georgia last week) has made a habit of coming up "small" in big games during his career. Will strong leg of soph PK Swank (5 of 7 from 50+ yards) prove difference for magical Deacons (covered all 7 as dog TY, winning 6 of those SU!)? TV--ABC
(05-GA. TECH 30-W. For. 17...G.17-16 G.42/187 W.35/100 G.12/27/0/200 W.19/33/1/160 G.0 W.1)
(05-GEORGIA TECH -7' 30-17...SR: Georgia Tech 20-7)
SEC CHAMPIONSHIP
(at Georgia Dome - Atlanta, Georgia)
*Florida 26 - Arkansas 13--Won't knock Arkansas too much for last week's loss to rival LSU, as resurgent Hogs had already locked up SEC's West Division with 10 straight wins following opening loss to Southern Cal. And speedy, swarming Arkansas defense should be able to hold its own against Florida attack that hasn't produced more than 28 points vs. a Div. I-A foe since early September. But question how effective ground-oriented Hog offense & star RB McFadden will be against Gator defense (only 70 ypg rushing!) and its super-stout front 7. And if game comes down to which QB makes the most plays in the air, have to favor cool, confident UF sr. Leak (86 TDP, more than 10,000 YP in his career) over still-learning UA soph Dick (just 3 of 17 for 29 yards vs. Tigers). Gators can't afford to bog down in red zone, however, as self-doubting sr. PK Hetland has converted only 3 of 12 FGs, with a long of just 29 yards. TV--CBS
(04-FLORIDA -7' 45-30 03-Florida +5 33-28...SR: Florida 5-1)
BIG XII CHAMPIONSHIP
(at Arrowhead Stadium - Kansas City, Missouri)
*Oklahoma 23 - Nebraska 17--Fifth Big XII title game for Oklahoma, and its 4th in the last 5 years. Fourth appearance for Nebraska, but its first since 1999. Both have winning title game records--OU 3-1 SU & vs. the spread; NU 2-1 SU & vs. the number. Oklahoma has taken the last two reg.-season meetings, 31-24 LY in Lincoln, and 30-3 in 2004 in Norman.
Preference for Sooners and HC Bob Stoops' big-game experience, even though Bill Callahan has been to the Super Bowl (his Raiders were routed 48-21 by Tampa Bay). Adrian Peterson (check status) considered doubtful at start of week, but backups Allen Patrick (another 163 YR last week; now 665) and Chris Brown (243 YR last 2 games) are starring as fill-ins. QB Zac Taylor (62%, 24 TDs, 4 ints.) and Callahan's list of trick plays give Cornhuskers a "variety" edge. But OU far steadier on defense (14th vs. 71st), as that unit and OL have stepped up their performance level at Stoops' insistence following the loss of Peterson, after which Sooners have won 6 straight, covering 5. Sr. QB Paul Thompson's performance TY (61.5%, 18 TDs, 7 ints.) better than anyone expected. TV--ABC
(05-Okla. 31-NEB. 24...N.20-19 O.45/180 N.34/16 N.26/46/2/267 O.14/28/0/157 O.0 N.0)
(05-Oklahoma +1 31-24...SR: Oklahoma 42-37-3)
COLLEGE KEY RELEASES
HAWAII by 19 over Oregon State
FLORIDA by 13 over Arkansas
posted by phantom
Nov. 28 2006 3:36pm -
0 likes
CKO GOLDSHEET
11 *TCU over Air Force
Late Score Forecast:
*TCU 42 - Air Force 14
After battling midseason backfield injuries, TCU closing the season with a
mighty flourish, blowing out it last two foes (San Diego State & Colorado
State) by a combined score of 97-14, out-gaining them by an amazing count of
1230 to 387-eased up! (Horned Frog offense did not score in either fourth
quarter). TCU stellar DEs Ortiz & Blake helped hold AF to one TD in 45-10
blasting LY at Colorado Springs.
10 Houston over *Oakland
Late Score Forecast:
HOUSTON 20 - *Oakland 13
(Sunday, December 3)
First time inconsistent, banged-up, turnover-prone Raiders have been favored
all year. Houston also plagued by injuries, but Texans much better coached
TY under Gary Kubiak, and Houston has been good enough to sweep rugged
Jacksonville. Now-mature David Carr (39 of 54 last week) is a Fresno
product, primed for one of his best efforts.
TOTALS: OVER (44) in San Diego-Buffalo game-McGahee (2 TDs last week) is back
for Bills; "L.T." (2 more TDs for S.D. last week) on way to new TD record.
HONORABLE MENTION (Nine-rated games): SOUTHERN CAL (-13«) at Ucla-Bruin
defense will be a problem for a while, but insiders say UCLA's lack of
playmakers on offense will result in mounting score. NEW ENGLAND (-13«) vs.
Detroit-Lions can't stop the run and are 0-5 vs. spread on the road; Brady's
precision goes up on artificial turf.
CONFIDENTIAL TIP-OFF BASKETBALL RELEASES FOR THE WEEK OF DECEMBER 1-7, 2006
Friday,
December 1
*DALLAS over Sacramento (NBA)...Dallas is the hottest team in the NBA at this
writing, winning 9 straight (8-1 vs. the spread) through Nov. 26. Mavs are
just getting it together, as budding star Josh Howard contributed only to the
last two victories in that streak due to injury. Dirk Nowitzki (27 ppg, 10.4
rpg) and pivots Diop & Dampier (combined 12 ppg & 13 rpg) join Howard to form
an imposing frontline. The Mav backcourt also has a rising star in G Devin
Harris (52%, 12 ppg last 11 games through Nov. 25), who's blossomed into a
starter in his third season.
*DALLAS 105 - Sacramento 90 RATING - 10
Saturday,
December 2
TORONTO over *New York (NBA)...New York again looks like one of the worst
teams in the NBA, and the Knicks have covered just 1 of first 7 home games.
While New York is one of the sloppiest teams in the league (only two teams
commit more turnovers), Toronto ranks second in the NBA in fewest turnovers.
The Raptors are an improved team with the offseason acquisition of point
guard T.J. Ford (15 ppg, 8 apg for Toronto). Raptors are also getting
mileage out of ex-Pacer SG Fred Jones, who's started 7 of the first 13 games
for Toronto and is the team's 3rd leading scorer.
TORONTO 106 - *New York 98 RATING - 10
CLEMSON over *South Carolina...CTO scouts urge going with experienced Clemson
squad (4 starters back) which was 11-0 when now-reinstated 6-9 F Mays was
ruled academically ineligible LY. With versatile Mays (12 ppg, 7 rpg, 3 apg)
demanding attention down low, talented trio of Gs Rivers (13 ppg, 42% treys),
Hamilton (11 ppg, 4 apg) & Hammonds (10 ppg, 41%) are more accurate from arc
after only 32% LY. Also, Tigers pesky defensive Gs keep USC's top weapon G
Kelly from finding groove. Payback doesn't work.
CLEMSON 79 - *South Carolina 73 RATING - 10
UC SANTA BARBARA over *Portland...Look against rebuilding Portland until
further notice. Already scrambling to fill large void left by graduation of
key PG Pooh Jeter, 1st-year HC Reveno has also had to deal with injuries
(including key 5th-year G Cooper's hamstring) and suspensions. Result has
been misfiring offense that lacks backcourt leadership and continues to shoot
bricks from perimeter (just 26% treys). Meanwhile, Big West observers
alerting us to keep an eye on UCSB, while raving about Gauchos' lethal 1-2
punch of swingman Harris (22 ppg) and rugged PF Devine (18 ppg).
UC SANTA BARBARA 70 - *Portland 56 RATING - 10
Sunday,
December 3
GEORGIA TECH over *Miami...ACC insiders tell us sharp-shooting GT (52% FGs)
itching for rematch following 70-53 home setback vs. Miami LY (worst
reg.-season conf. loss of season!). Engineers blue-chip frosh 6-4 G
Crittenton (14 ppg, 6 apg, 4 rpg) & 6-8 F T. Young (14 ppg, 5 rpg) have
exceeded high expectations. Meanwhile, Miami still seeking more post
production from 6-9 sr. F King (only 8 ppg, 9 ppg LY), and deep Tech
backcourt sustains intense pressure on Hurricanes new top dog G McClinton
(Siena transfer 19 ppg).
GEORGIA TECH 83 - *Miami 72 RATING - 10
Wednesday,
December 6
*WYOMING over Denver ...Seriously-struggling Denver (1-4 SU, 0-3 vs. spread
thru Nov. 26) won't find needed solutions vs. revenge-minded Wyoming
contingent buoyed by recent upset at Colorado. Cowboys explosive Gs Ewing
(23 ppg) & B. Jones (22 ppg) will easily outduel Pioneer backcourt, which
sorely misses all-league 6-11 C Nicholson (20 ppg, 11 rpg, 3 bpg). New
Denver recruits making no impact yet, so Pioneers road woes continue (3-10 as
a road dog last 1+Ys).
*WYOMING 88 - Denver 64 RATING - 10
posted by phantom
Nov. 28 2006 3:36pm -
0 likes
SS Forecast
CFB Computer Predictions
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Thursday, November 30, 2006
Ohio(+3) vs. Central Michigan
Power Rating Projection:
Central Michigan 23 Ohio 22
Statistical Projections
Ohio 17
Rushing Yards: 162
Passing Yards: 98
Turnovers: 2 Central Michigan 21
Rushing Yards: 126
Passing Yards: 184
Turnovers: 2
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Central Michigan 19 Ohio 18
posted by phantom
Nov. 30 2006 1:47pm -
0 likes
Kevin o.neill & friends (the Max)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
did excellent last week
Thursday, November 30th, 2006
MAC Championship Game @ Detroit, MI
Central Michigan (-3) over Ohio U
Some might think Central Michigan has become a
poster child for how quickly fortunes can change for
a Mid-American Conference football program. The
Chippewas had only two winning seasons in the
previous 10 years before Brian Kelly became the
coach in the 2004. In three seasons, Kelly has
directed Central Michigan's proud program to the
MAC West championship and a spot in the MAC title
game against Ohio. For the Chippewas' program this
game is a reward the culmination of efforts going
back more than a decade. Central Michigan finished
the regular season with an 8-4 overall record and 7-
1 MAC mark in a 55-28 win at Buffalo. Kelly led the
Chippewas to a position of strength in the MAC and
a spot in a postseason bowl game, likely the Motor
City Bowl in Detroit, by changing a defeatist attitude
among players in the program.
Under second-year coach Frank Solich, the Bobcats
have used an old-fashioned formula of defense,
special teams, and a solid rushing attack to win the
MAC East Division and their first football
championship of any kind since 1968's MAC title
team. The Bobcats are winners of seven straight
games, closing out the regular season with a 34-24
win last Friday at Miami, snapping a six game losing
streak in the series. The Bobcats rang up 437 yards
of total offense and were led by junior RB Kalvin
McRae, who rumbled for a season-high 180 yards
and two touchdowns on 22 carries. McRae became
the first Ohio back in 30 years to rush for 1,000
yards in consecutive seasons.
Led by LB's Matt Muncy and Tyler Russ, and DB T.J.
Wright, Ohio's defense is limiting opponents to less
than 300 yards per game. The Bobcats went into the
Miami contest with the MAC's #2 rated pass
defense, despite losing three opening day starters in
the secondary. The division title can also be seen as
vindication for Solich after his team disciplinary
policy came under scrutiny in mid-September.
Brian Kelly has expertly prepared his charges for this
game. CMU wrapped up the MAC West divisional
title three weeks ago with a 31-7 win over archrival
Western Michgan. The game was an emotional triple
whammy for CMU: they won their division, they beat
their archrival, and a loss would likely have given
Western the divisional crown themselves. So Central
came out the next week in a meaningless game at
Northern Illinois and promptly laid a big egg, losing
31-10. With a keen understanding of momentum
and the motivational value of that loss Kelly put the
hammer down the next week and prepped fairly
hard for cellar dweller Buffalo. The result was as
dominating as any win in Div I-A play this season.
CMU took the opening kick back for a TD, piled up
311 yards in just 28 plays on their first six
possessions en route to a 48-7 halftime lead. The
Chips' defense held Buffalo to 3-and-outs on five of
their first six possessions. In the second half CMU
substituted liberally, let up some and allowed Buffalo
to score on three consecutive possessions, giving
Brian Kelly both the momentum building blowout
win AND a motivational stick to beat the kids
with in preparation for this game.
From a technical standpoint the emotional
edge should be with Central Michigan. While
both teams certainly have had the goal of
making it to this game, it really isn't that much
of a surprise for CMU to get here. The program
has clearly been on an upswing since Brian
Kelly arrived in Mt Pleasant back in 2004. Ohio
on the other hand is the Cinderella team here,
having notched a losing 4-7 mark in 2005.
College teams that reach this point in the
season by greatly overachieving (Ohio is 9-3)
are usually due to a fall. The Bobcats apply to
a negative 16-38 ATS situation based on this
concept that is worth about 6 points per game.
Ohio also applies to a more powerful
subsection of that system that is 5-21 ATS and
has a negative cover margin over 11 points per
game.
One team belongs in this game while the other
is just happy to be here. Unless late word
develops concerning Brian Kelly and a high
profile job opening, the Chippewas' players will
have the necessary focus to take care of
business on Thursday. Lay the points with
Central Michigan.
posted by phantom
Nov. 30 2006 1:47pm -
0 likes
Tim Sullivan
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
last week
7-6-2
bb 1-2
101-86 (not bad)
bb 21-18
TONIGHT
MAC CHAMPIONSHIP
Central Michigan (-3) over Ohio:
Central Michigan (-3) over Ohio: Chippewas are 10-2 against the spread, will have an advantage in the Detroit stands and love the fact that coach Brian Kelly decided to stay in Mt. Pleasant.
TOMORROW
C-USA CHAMPIONSHIP
HOUSTON (-4 1/2) over Southern Miss: Cougars QB Kevin Kolb is the best player on the field. He's at home and would love nothing more than to avenge a 31-27 loss at Southern Miss on Oct. 14.
posted by phantom
Nov. 30 2006 1:48pm -
0 likes
BEN BURNS
THURSDAY COLLEGE FOOTBALL
Game: Ohio vs. Central Michigan Game Time: 11/30/2006 7:30:00 PM Prediction: over Reason: I'm playing on Ohio and Central Michigan to finish OVER the number. Interesting matchup of offense vs. defense here. Ohio has played great defense all year while Central Michigan has been dominant offensively. The Chippewas have averaged 33.8 points their past five outings, with those games averaging 55 points. Despite their defensive reputation, the Bobcats have also managed to average better than 25 points per game their last five times out, including a 34-24 contest most recently. Looking at the head-to-head history and we find that these teams have met three times this millennium with the combined score averaging 46.33 points, including 47 last season. As you know, weather is often a factor at this time of year. However, with this game being played at Ford Field, that won't be the case this evening. Looking back at the recent MAC Championship games and we find that the last five have ALL had over/under lines in the 50s or 60s and ALL produced more than 60 points. In fact, the last five MAC Championship gaves have averaged a whopping 74 points! Look for another relatively high-scoring affair this evening with the final combined score finishing above the low number.
posted by phantom
Nov. 30 2006 1:48pm -
0 likes
ROCKYS WINNERS CIRCLE
25* Central Michigan
LENNY STEVENS
10* Cincinnati Bengals
pass basketball
posted by phantom
Nov. 30 2006 1:49pm -
0 likes
rockys Over/unders
California Under 46
Ucla Over 47
Air Force Over 50
San Jose State Under 50
Arkansas Under 44
St Louis Over 46
Cleveland Over 38
New England Under 41.5
Ny Giants Under 43.5
Denver Over 40
posted by phantom
Nov. 30 2006 1:52pm -
0 likes
Rockys Newsletter
Perfect System Play......ucla
Guaranteed Best Bet......houston University
Systems Play Of The Week....west Virginia
Game Of The Week.......da Bears
posted by phantom
Nov. 30 2006 1:55pm -
0 likes
The Red Sheet
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RATINGS: 89 & ABOVE: SUPERIOR PLAY
88 & BELOW: ABOVE AVERAGE PLAY
LOUISVILLE 51 - Connecticut 13 - (12:00 EST) -- Line opened at Louisville minus 27½, and is now minus
27. Another stellar season for the Cards, who rank 6th in the nation, & are just a last minute
road loss (Rutgers) from claiming a slot in the BCS title game. They've been stung by the
injury bug, to be sure, but are relatively healthy, with QB Brohm again among the nation's
leaders (12th in passing), despite missing a pair of games. The 'Ville ranks 3rd in total "O",
5th in scoring, & perhaps, more importantly, has covered 15-of-17 at home of late. The
Huskies haven't topped 17 pts in their last 7 road contests, & with their bowl hopes now
dust, they hardly figure to do enough to stay with this scoring machine.
RATING: LOUISVILLE 89
TCU 48 - Air Force 17 - (3:30) -- Line opened at TCU minus 14½, and is now minus 27. A year ago, the
Frogs of Tcu were among the nation's consistent money makers. Weekly blowouts were
the rule, with their backers collecting all but 2 of their final 10 games. And those 2 misses
came by just 2 & 3 pts. This year, however, they struggled to match that level of consistency,
failing to top 17 pts in their first 4 lined games. However, they've been in full click
mode of late, behind the leadership of senior QB Ballard, averaging 35 pts in their last 6
games, while piling up 624 & 606 yds the past 2 weeks. The Falcons' season, in sharp
contrast, has plummeted, with their current 1-5 SU & 1-7 ATS logs. Simply outnumbered.
RATING: TCU 89
Navy 44 - Army 13 - (2:30) -- Line opened at Navy minus 18½, and is now minus 20½. Much like the above
game, it is always a bit disconcerting when going against military schools, as such large
underdogs, the reason being the fact that service academy teams are never down. However,
the current fortunes of both AirForce & Army (as well as the play of both of their
opponents) has to overrule that truism. Simply put, the Cadets have not only struggled
mightily this season, but for the past 10 years. Before that, they were an optioneering &
successful bowl team. Coaches Sutton, Berry, & Ross, haven't been the answer. The
Middies, however, rank #1 in rushing, & owned this series. Navy again, despite the snow.
RATING: NAVY 88
HAWAII 55 - Oregon State 27 - (11:00) -- Line opened at Hawaii minus 9½, and is now minus 7½. Not many
times that you find a team rolling up 33 FDs, 653 yds, punting just once, but failing to cover
the spot. But that's what the Rainbows did a week ago, when they barely squeaked by
Purdue, after jumping to a 17-0 halftime lead. Their brilliant QB Brennan didn't throw his
first TD pass until the 4th quarter, winding up with 3, including the 23-yd winner in the final
1:27. He simply does it when he has to. RB Ilaoa ran for 159 yds (13.3 ypr), & is at nationbest
8.05 ypr for the season. Brennan: 51 TDs, 4,589 PYs. And this sets up perfectly,
catching the Beavers off the one they wanted most: draining win over Oregon.
RATING: HAWAII 88
Troy 42 - FLA INTERNATIONAL 6 - (7:00) -- Line opened at Troy minus 12, and is now minus 13½. A win
here, & the Trojans are Sun Belt champions, landing a spot in the New Orleans Bowl, which
will make it 2 holiday trips in the past 3 years (34-21 loss to NoIllinois in the '04 Silicon Valley
Bowl). Nine returning offensive starters boded well for Troy, but that quickly turned to
doubt, as it managed just 10 ppg in its first 4 lined contests (0-4 SU). But the Trojans have
averaged >25 ppg since, winning 5-of-6. Thus hitting on all cylinders when they needed it
most. And here, they take on an 0-11 Panther team which has totalled 10 pts in its last 5
games. The ultimate "playing out the string" scenario. Line seems odd.
RATING: TROY 88
Dallas 34 - NEW YORK GIANTS 20 - (4:15) -- Line opened at Dallas minus 3½, and is still minus 3½. Oh,
how the Giants have fallen. Not only with the Tiki incident after their embarrassing loss at
Jacksonville, but again this past Sunday, when they presided over blowing a 21-pt lead over
Tennessee, by being outscored 24-0, in the final 10 minutes. Viewing that collapse bordered
on the surreal. That's 3 straight losses for this free-falling outfit, with no end in sight,
especially with numerous defensive stalwarts in sick bay, & Manning performing like an
unseasoned rookie. The 'Boys are just the opposite, behind the guiding hand of first-year
QB Romo, who is off a 5-TD showing vs the Bucs. Parcells & revenge hammer.
RATING: DALLAS 88
NEAR CHOICES (Rated 87): WakeForest, Monroe, UCLA, California -- NFL: NewOrleans, Chicago, Philly
posted by phantom
Nov. 30 2006 1:56pm -
0 likes
Winning Points close calls & Trends
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
7
*CLOSE CALLS
M.A.C. Championship (Thursday at Detroit)
Central Michigan over Ohio U. by 6
Although these two have not met this season, it is worth noting the 37-10 rout at
home by the Chippewas last year. They bring better offensive balance and more big
play ability to the table, but their defensive front is going to have to stand up to
the physical Bobcat ground game to set the tone. CENTRAL MICHIGAN 23-17.
Conference USA Championship (Friday at Houston)
Houston* over Southern Miss by 5
Although the Golden Eagles won 31-27 at home earlier this season, note that they
continue to have problems matching up to the Art Briles playbook – if a 46 yard
loss on a bad punt snap is removed, the Cougars had 423 yards in that one. With
an extra week to prepare they should also bring fresher legs, which can make a big
difference at this time of the season. HOUSTON 27-22.
West Virginia* over Rutgers by 10
The Scarlet Knights have the tenacity to make many of the same plays on defense
that led to South Florida’s stunning upset in Morgantown last Saturday, and the
motive of winning the Big East title outright. But while the Bulls had their blitzes
well-timed in their second look at Pat White and Steve Slayton, neither of those
two were factors in the Mountaineer offense when they won 27-14 at Rutgers last
year. So seeing the films is one thing, but experiencing the speed first hand is
another. WEST VIRGINIA 26-16.
Navy over Army by 21 (at Philadelphia)
Bobby Ross has fallen by a combined 48 points on the scoreboard and 29.5 to the
pointspread in his first two attempts at the Midshipmen, and this does not look
any different at all. The defense lacks the muscle to slow down the Navy ground
attack, which produced 531 yards of total offense last year, while the Cadet offense
had multiple turnovers in 10 of 11 games, including four of four or more. Not easy
to correct the latter when you have only played once in the last month before this
one kicks off. NAVY 34-13.
California* over Stanford by 29
Walt Harris has even less to work with on offense than in last year’s loss to the
Golden Bears, when Stanford managed only a lone field goal. And having had two
full weeks to cope with the aggravation of back-to-back losses that ruined BCS
hopes, the home favorite might be in a mood to vent some frustrations. CALIFORNIA
35-6.
Southern Cal over U.C.L.A.* by 17
As always when these two play, there is no home field advantage when the Bruins
“hostâ€
posted by phantom
Nov. 30 2006 1:56pm -
0 likes
Winning Points best bets and preferred plays
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
****BEST BET
NEW MEXICO STATE* over LOUISIANA TECH by 28
Ordinarily there would be almost nothing more insignificant that a team could do
late in a season that beat a downtrodden opponent, like what Hal Mumme’s Aggies
did at Utah State last week. But in this case we believe there was something to it.
Not only was it the first ever conference win for Mumme since taking over the program,
but they got the win exactly the way that we would like to see – coming off
of a bye week there was a real sense of purpose, and they jumped to a 28-0 lead in
the first quarter before coasting home. That means that we get a fresh and excited
team taking the field in front of their home fans, and the momentum from last
week’s win can easily be built upon against a worn out Louisiana Tech team that
may show no interest in game #13, and the 12th in as many weeks. The Bulldogs
sport the worst defense in Division I, and while it would be tough enough for the
to stop Mumme’s aerial circus based on talent deficiencies along, it is yet another
matter entirely when they do not bring the proper effort to the practice field and
film room this week to study those tactics. At 3-9 the bodies are tired and the spirit
is sagging, and that opens the door for Chase Holbrook to put up some big
numbers against a defense that has held only hapless Utah State and Idaho to less
than 400 yards. NEW MEXICO STATE 48-20.
**PREFERRED
T.C.U.* over AIR FORCE by 31
With a losing season having been clinched (again), and facing their 11th game in
as many weeks, finding a motivational target becomes difficult for Fisher DeBerry’s
Falcons this week. And forget about all of those notions of his teams “coming to
playâ€
posted by phantom
Nov. 30 2006 1:57pm -
0 likes
Kevin o.neill & friends (the Max)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2
College Football
Saturday, December 2nd
Playing Frogger
@TCU (-17) over Air Force
TCU struggled in losing consecutive games to BYU
and Utah to fall to 3-2 but then used a 2-week break
to get healthy and since have just been rolling
people. They’ve won 6 straight games, with 5 of
them being by 14 or more. On Saturday they went
up to Fort Collins and just obliterated Colorado
State, racking up 606 yards and at one point scoring
on 7 consecutive possessions. Air Force is a team
playing like they want the season to end. They’ve
lost 5 straight games. On Saturday they lost to a
UNLV club that had lost 10 straight games. Air
Force enjoyed a 3-0 turnover advantage but
permitted the struggling Rebels to gain 555 yards.
The matchup here is very unfavorable for Air Force.
They average 56 running plays and 12 passing plays
per game. If they can’t run they can’t move the
ball. TCU is the immovable force when it comes to
their run defense. The Horned Frogs allow a mere
64 rushing yards per game on 2.4 yards per rush.
They are somewhat vulnerable through the air but
the Falcons are not the team to exploit that. Air
Force’s defense will continue to fight hard but TCU
just has too many weapons for them. Last year at
Air Force the Horned Frogs crushed the Falcons 48-
10. Coach Fisher DeBerry famously spoke on how
his team simply couldn’t match up with TCU’s
athletes. It’ll be the same situation here today as a
tired Air Force team that has played 11 straight
weeks gets rolled in Fort Worth. TCU by 24.
ACC Championship @Jacksonville, FL
Wake Forest (+3) over Georgia Tech
This selection isn’t a surprise, as we’ve used Wake
Forest frequently this season. We love coach Jim
Grobe, the patience he’s shown in building this
program with 18 starters in their 4th or 5th year in
the program. They won impressively at Maryland
(a tough place to win) 38-24 on Saturday night with
a division title on the line. They are the only ACC
team to ever win 6 road games in the same season
(teams good enough to run the table don’t ordinarily
have that many road games, but Wake isn’t one of
those traditional powers). Wake Forest got healthy
before the Maryland game and importantly, they are
better stocked at the running back position, where
they have been thin. Their depth has paid off.
Georgia Tech was held to 186 yards of total offense
in their loss to Georgia. Senior QB Reggie Ball was
an awful 6-22 for 42 yards with 2 interceptions.
Wake TE John Tereshinski’s dad is on Georgia’s staff
and his brother is a backup QB for the Bulldogs.
Have to think that they’re observations and
experience from Georgia’s win over Tech will make
their way to the Wake Forest coaching staff this
week, especially as UGA and Tech battle in
recruiting, while UGA and Wake don’t.
Wake Forest doesn’t match up badly against Tech.
Wake’s pass defense gives up some yardage (over
6.7 yards per attempt), but they’ve allowed only 11
TD passes while picking off 20 interceptions. Reggie
Ball is prone to mistakes in big games, and this is a
very big game for these two clubs. Wake Forest’s
misdirection, sweeps, and the surprise element of
their passing game (with impressive redshirt
freshman QB Riley Skinner) are tough to prepare for
and Georgia Tech has to overcome the
disappointment of losing yet again (no player has
ever beaten them) to a Georgia team that was only
4-4 in their conference. Grobe’s Deacons continue
their unlikely run. Wake Forest by 3.
SEC Championship @ Atlanta, GA
Florida vs. Arkansas under 44½
You know all about Urban Meyer’s offensive trickery
at Utah and here at Florida. You’ve probably been
learning about Gus Malzahn, a former high school
coach hired by Houston Nutt when Malzahn’s
Springdale HS quarterback Mitch Mustain reopened
his recruitment late in the game after verbally
committing to Arkansas early. But what looked like
a shaky hire has worked out well and Malzahn has
been national assistant coach of the week twice
already this season. So you’ll see a lot of offensive
innovation in this game.
But defenses are catching up with the limitations of
the Florida and Arkansas offenses. In their last 7
games against 1-A opponents, Florida has averaged
only 330 yards of offense. Meanwhile, Arkansas’
quarterback position has been somewhat unsettled,
and after catching Tennessee in a big letdown spot,
the Razorbacks gained only 256 yards against
Mississippi State and despite being in comeback
mode for much of the 2nd half, were held to 62
yards passing against LSU, completing only 5 of 20
passes vs. the Bengal Tigers. While known for their
creativity with gadget plays, these two teams are
also more likely to be able to sniff out the trick plays
of their opponent because they run so many such
plays themselves and have considered a lot of the
same stuff. And that isn’t the only edge the D’s
3
will have. Both these teams are somewhat limited
throwing the ball and the run defenses are excellent.
Florida allows 2.7 yards per rush and Arkansas
permits only 3.4 yards per attempt. These clubs
should be able to slow each other down and the
preponderance of the rushing attacks means that
the clock will be running in this one. Go under.
Big 12 Championship @ Kansas City, MO
Oklahoma (-3½) over Nebraska
Some justice in Oklahoma winning their division
following the A&M upset of Texas. Oklahoma
outgained Texas 333-232 but lost 28-10 due to a 5-
0 turnover disadvantage. Oklahoma State showed a
lot of heart late against Oklahoma while Colorado
showed a lot of heart early against Nebraska. The
Buffaloes were 14-14 in Lincoln midway through the
3rd quarter but then things got away from them as
NU poured it on late, inspired by some ill-considered
insulting comments by Colorado coach Hawkins.
Nebraska used a lot of trickery, including a fake FG
pass for a TD, two halfback option passes, and a
direct snap to a back to put away the Buffaloes, who
finished 2-10.
Oklahoma has grown into the best team in the
conference. After showing some weakness in their
first 3 games of the season, the defense has buckled
down tremendously in the last 9, allowing only 230
yards per game (less than 77 yards per game on the
ground). Paul Thompson has done a splendid job
for the Sooners at the quarterback position and
these two teams are not dissimilar as far as
offensive production goes. But the OU defense is
miles better than Nebraska’s and the entire team
has improved over the course of the season. The
running game is very strong even without Adrien
Peterson, and we’ll see if he goes in this one. With
or without Peterson don’t be surprised if defense is
the difference here. Look for the Sooners to roll to
the conference title. Oklahoma by 10.
Dave Fobare’s College Tech Play of the Week
KO’s Note: Many readers found Dave Fobare’s
technical work to be intriguing the past two years.
Again this season Dave will be providing Max
readers with a college play of the week and an NFL
play of the week each week in the Max this year.
We’re confident you’ll enjoy Dave’s work and learn
from it as well. Dave’s plays will be clearly labeled.
All other games are written up by Kevin O’Neill.
Thursday, November 30th, 2006
MAC Championship Game @ Detroit, MI
Central Michigan (-3) over Ohio U
Some might think Central Michigan has become a
poster child for how quickly fortunes can change for
a Mid-American Conference football program. The
Chippewas had only two winning seasons in the
previous 10 years before Brian Kelly became the
coach in the 2004. In three seasons, Kelly has
directed Central Michigan's proud program to the
MAC West championship and a spot in the MAC title
game against Ohio. For the Chippewas' program this
game is a reward the culmination of efforts going
back more than a decade. Central Michigan finished
the regular season with an 8-4 overall record and 7-
1 MAC mark in a 55-28 win at Buffalo. Kelly led the
Chippewas to a position of strength in the MAC and
a spot in a postseason bowl game, likely the Motor
City Bowl in Detroit, by changing a defeatist attitude
among players in the program.
Under second-year coach Frank Solich, the Bobcats
have used an old-fashioned formula of defense,
special teams, and a solid rushing attack to win the
MAC East Division and their first football
championship of any kind since 1968's MAC title
team. The Bobcats are winners of seven straight
games, closing out the regular season with a 34-24
win last Friday at Miami, snapping a six game losing
streak in the series. The Bobcats rang up 437 yards
of total offense and were led by junior RB Kalvin
McRae, who rumbled for a season-high 180 yards
and two touchdowns on 22 carries. McRae became
the first Ohio back in 30 years to rush for 1,000
yards in consecutive seasons.
Led by LB's Matt Muncy and Tyler Russ, and DB T.J.
Wright, Ohio's defense is limiting opponents to less
than 300 yards per game. The Bobcats went into the
Miami contest with the MAC's #2 rated pass
defense, despite losing three opening day starters in
the secondary. The division title can also be seen as
vindication for Solich after his team disciplinary
policy came under scrutiny in mid-September.
Brian Kelly has expertly prepared his charges for this
game. CMU wrapped up the MAC West divisional
title three weeks ago with a 31-7 win over archrival
Western Michgan. The game was an emotional triple
whammy for CMU: they won their division, they beat
their archrival, and a loss would likely have given
Western the divisional crown themselves. So Central
came out the next week in a meaningless game at
Northern Illinois and promptly laid a big egg, losing
31-10. With a keen understanding of momentum
and the motivational value of that loss Kelly put the
hammer down the next week and prepped fairly
hard for cellar dweller Buffalo. The result was as
dominating as any win in Div I-A play this season.
CMU took the opening kick back for a TD, piled up
311 yards in just 28 plays on their first six
possessions en route to a 48-7 halftime lead. The
Chips' defense held Buffalo to 3-and-outs on five of
their first six possessions. In the second half CMU
substituted liberally, let up some and allowed Buffalo
to score on three consecutive possessions, giving
Brian Kelly both the momentum building blowout
win AND a motivational stick to beat the kids
with in preparation for this game.
From a technical standpoint the emotional
edge should be with Central Michigan. While
both teams certainly have had the goal of
making it to this game, it really isn't that much
of a surprise for CMU to get here. The program
has clearly been on an upswing since Brian
Kelly arrived in Mt Pleasant back in 2004. Ohio
on the other hand is the Cinderella team here,
having notched a losing 4-7 mark in 2005.
College teams that reach this point in the
season by greatly overachieving (Ohio is 9-3)
are usually due to a fall. The Bobcats apply to
a negative 16-38 ATS situation based on this
concept that is worth about 6 points per game.
Ohio also applies to a more powerful
subsection of that system that is 5-21 ATS and
has a negative cover margin over 11 points per
game.
One team belongs in this game while the other
is just happy to be here. Unless late word
develops concerning Brian Kelly and a high
profile job opening, the Chippewas' players will
have the necessary focus to take care of
business on Thursday. Lay the points with
Central Michigan.
__________________
posted by phantom
Nov. 30 2006 2:07pm -
0 likes
Marc Lawrence
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Thursday, November 30th
Mac Championship
C Michigan over Ohio by 6
Despite its recent surge, mostly behind a strong running game, Ohio
still gains just 285 YPG on the season, thus their 104th ranking. It's
the defense (21st ranked) that has been the catalyst. The key here is
Central's ability to stop the run. If the Bobbies have to rely on their
114th-ranked pass offense, they will be in trouble. Brian Kelly is a
master at winning championships (two Division II titles). While we're
not fond of laying points to a better defense, the Chippewas' 7-1
SUATS mark against the MAC this year is appealing. With Iowa State in
hot pursuit of Kelly, look for the Chips to play hard for him today.
Marc Lawrence’s
Friday, December 1st
CUSA CHAMPIONSHIP
Robertson Stadium • Houston, TX
HOUSTON over S Mississippi by 6
Back on October 14th, Houston visited the Eagles' Nest and got stung
with a 31-27 loss. The circumstances of that loss, a questionable ruling
at a crucial point in the game, will inspire the Cougars here. The
numbers also support the Cats, as does the SMART BOX. Southern
Miss has lost fi ve road games in a row to winning teams and is 1-7 ATS
as a road dog to winning teams off BB SU wins. Houston is averaging
33 points per game this season. The Golden Eagles are 6-27 ATS when
allowing 28 or more to a team off a win. An extra week of rest aides
the Cougar cause, especially considering USM's 1-5 SUATS mark as
road dogs versus a rested foe under head coach Jeff Bower.
sat plays
W VIRGINIA over Rutgers by 13
Not fond of Rutgers' chances here against a band of Hillbillies
mortifi ed by the home loss to South Florida last week. WVU gains
134 ground yards per game more than New Jersey State and allows
19 less. Rutgers is 0-34 SU on the road against winning teams the
last 34 times they have been outrushed. The Mounties are 47-7 ATS
in their last 54 SU wins vs .600 or better teams. 'Knightmare on Elm
Street' as Greg Schiano falls to 0-6 SU in his career against WVU. This
week's AWESOME ANGLE (page 2) cements it.
Navy over Army by 24
This group of Navy seniors has never lost nor failed to cover in the
Commander-in-Chief series and we see no reason why their ship will
sink today. Army hasn't come within 14 points of winning a lined game
since Sept 23rd. The Black Knights are also 1-8 ATS in the last nine
games of this series, including a perfect 0-6 ATS as an underdog, and
0-8 ATS in their last eight tries as a dog of +3 or more. Navy has NEVER
failed to cover (23-0 ATS) in a SU win with rest. Man the torpedoes!
N MEXICO ST over La Tech by 11
You'd think that the nation's fi fth-ranked offense would be able to
take it to its worst defense, especially when the enemy has a scoring
margin of nearly 28 points the wrong way in lined games this year.
However, until they won at Utah State last week, the Aggies were
0-22 SU in their last 22 lined games while Tech actually has a couple
of lined wins in '06. Not interested in this Sun Belt-ish calamity.
CALIFORNIA over Stanford by 28
Devastated! That's the feeling on the Berkeley campus after the Bears
were stuffed by Southern Cal. But, you don't need to be at the top of
your game to beat Stanford unless you're the Washington Huskies.
Although this is the West Coast version of "The Game", we don't see
California as all that enthused – and you know how we feel about
disinterested favorites, particularly those who are laying FIVE TD's.
Remember, after its 5-1 ATS start this season, the tarnished Bears are
riding a 4-game ATS losing skein entering this contest. No thanks.
Southern Cal over UCLA by 10
The Trojans have owned this series of late, posting seven straight
wins averaging 21 points each while grabbing six covers. USC also
owns the late season. Since 2000, Troy is 20-0 SU and 16-4 ATS in
conference play from November 1st out, one of the more impressive
stats in CFB. The Bruins are not without support, however. They are
13-5 ATS in their last 18 home games and 23-9 ATS at home off BB SU
wins. They're also perfect at home under HC Karl Dorrell when not
laying points (4-0 ATS). Ohio State rootin' for Bruins. So are we.
TCU over Air Force by 10
Up until last week's game at Colorado State, the Horned Frogs had
been consistently unimpressive on the road. They needed turnover
touchdowns to get wins at Army, Baylor and UNLV, three teams with
fi ve lined wins between them. They also got three turnover TD's and
192 total yards at New Mexico, and got smoked at Utah. Also don't
like the fact that the Horned Ones are 1-13 ATS as favorites when
allowing 90 or more rushing yards. Take it or leave it.
SAN JOSE ST over Fresno St by 3
The stats on these two teams are relatively equal. San Jose had been
playing better all season long until Fresno started a mini-run against
some terrible teams. San Jose is favored, as it should be. Here's the
problem: Jose hasn't beaten Fresno in any of the 11 meetings since
1994 and, in the last two meetings, were underdogs of +26 and +33.
We won't be diagramming any sentences with this chalk!
LOUISVILLE over Connecticut by 31
Louisville's record (14-2 ATS) as a home favorite is powerful and,
under Bobby Petrino, its last home game of the season has been no
different. Those three games produced SU wins in which Louisville
scored 41, 70 and 66 points. Since Connecticut is 1-9 ATS in its last
ten road games when allowing 24 or more, it would be pretty hard
to fade the Cardinals in this spot. Impossible, actually.
SAN DIEGO ST over Colorado St by 1
As Yoda might say, "Road warrior Colorado State is not." The Rams
haven't covered as a road favorite since November of 2002. In the six
ATS losses in that role since then, CSU has only two SU wins, by one
point and by four points. This year, the Rams have no conference road
wins. Still, it's less dangerous to be the fi fth guy in a game of Russian
Roulette than it is to take the Aztecs, no matter what the situation
is! Rams should not be favored over anyone right now.
HAWAII over Oregon St by 10
The Rainbows have been mauling every team that meanders into
the Pineapple Patch and we're not so sure OSU will fare any better.
The Beavers won their biggest game of the season last week, have
nothing to gain or lose by the result of this game, and are more than
likely here for a vacation than business. You must have your head in
the game when you play Hawaii here or you'll be looking at a 21-0
defi cit before the ice in your Mai Tai melts. Oh yea, teams concluding
the regular season on Oahu are 2-8 ATS off a home game when the
Warriors sport a .500 or better record.
ADDED GAMES
LA LAFAYETTE over LA Monroe by 1
Either take the dog or pass here: the series favorite stands 0-8 ATS.
Troy over FLORIDA INT'L by 17
Since FIU is averaging TWO POINTS per game in its last fi ve contests,
we're going to give this one to the guys in the Wooden Horse.
ACC CHAMPIONSHIP GAME
GEORGIA TECH over Wake Forest by 4
Although GT has the better offense and better defense, Wake Forest
has the better record. The reason is simple. There is no one on Wake's
team who can foul up a game like Reggie Ball. The Yellow Jacket QB,
despite being a four-year starter, was rattled badly by Georgia and
ended up costing his team the game. Wake's astute Jim Grobe took
notice, we're sure. The Deacons don't have the weapons to match
Tech's, but they are 27-9 ATS as an dog when .500 or better and facing
a foe off a loss. Bottom line, though, is the Demons played more like
Fake Forest this season, allowing 13 YPG more than they gained. Can't
trust those kind of numbers in a game this important.
SEC CHAMPIONSHIP GAME
FLORIDA over Arkansas by 1
One of the more impressive stats of the past weekend was the 298
yards rushing that Arkansas put up against the nation's top-ranked
defense, handing LSU its fi rst stat-loss of the season. But the Hogs
couldn't complete a pass in the second half of that loss to the Bengals
and they will need to fi nd some semblance of a passing game here or
they will lose again. Florida can still get into the national title game
if USC loses to UCLA and the Gator "D" is just a notch below LSU's.
Running dogs are always attractive, though....
BIG 12 GAME
Oklahoma over Nebraska by 1
The Sooners backed into this game thanks to Texas A&M's stunning
upset over the Texas Longhorns in Austin and to a dropped pass
near the goal line in the fi nal seconds of their win over Okie State.
Nebraska has been ticketed for this clash since beating Missouri a
month ago. We do know that Stoops has been here before. Callahan
hasn't. Still, the Huskers are on a 5-1-1 ATS run and averaging 34 PPG
this season. OU is 0-15 ATS as a fav when allowing 27 or more pts.
__________________
posted by phantom
Nov. 30 2006 2:09pm -
0 likes
Marc Lawrence Angle of the week & best Bets
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
page 2 •
AWESOME ANGLE
OF THE WEEK
Marc's Awesome Angle Of The Week
Wins 67% In PLAYBOOK Last Four Years!
ATS W-L Record
Since 1980:
22-3
(88%)
BACK ON
TRACK PLAY ON any college home
favorite of -7 > points off a
SU home favorite loss vs a foe
off a double-digit win in
which they scored 24 > points.
PLAY ON:
WEST VIRGINIA
INCREDIBLE STAT OF THE WEEK
Be sure to read the INCREDIBLE STAT OF THE WEEK
each week in the PLAYBOOK Football Newsletter!
Army is 0-12 SU & ATS
with rest versus an opponent with
a win percentage of > .333
NO BEST BETS IN COLLEGE THIS WEEK
3★ BEST BET
The Forty Niners are rounding into a decent team and check into
the Super Dome with four straight covers in their back pocket. We
like their chances to make it a handful given their superior running
game and the Saints coming in nice and fat off an Atlanta series
sweep. New Orleans is 0-5 ATS off a division roadie and 3-14 ATS
against foes playing the second of BB road games. In addition,
the Bourbon Street gang is 15-45 ATS as home chalk against an
opponent off a loss, including 4-22 ATS laying six or more points
(1-17 ATS going into revenge). Niners strike gold in N'Awlins.
San Francisco over NEW ORLEANS by 3
4★ BEST BET
After the win over Indianapolis and the decimation of Tampa on
Turkey Day, the Cowboys look like the class of the NFC East. They
are, however, 3-8 ATS after their Thanksgiving game and 6-13
ATS off BB home games. The Giants, meanwhile, are 12-3 ATS in
December vs winning avengers and 4-0-1 ATS in the last fi ve of
this series. They limp home off back-to-back road losses, the last
a devastating defeat at Tennessee last week. G-Men handled the
Boys in Dallas earlier this year to the tune of 36-22 and stand 4-0
ATS as division home dogs off a SU favorite loss. Again.
NY GIANTS over Dallas by 10
5★ BEST BET
With Denver off BB losses and with extra time to prepare, we
can't get too excited about the Seabags. For openers, defending
Super Bowl losers are 84-115-5 ATS on the road the following
season. When they take to the road off a Monday Night game
from Game 8 on out against a foe off back-to-back losses, they
are 1-9 ATS. The Broncos have also bagged the cash nine of the
last ten tries against teams from the NFC West division. Off a pair
of home losses, expect fi re in the eyes of this horse today.
DENVER over Seattle by 17
3* bills over
4*Rams over
5*Raiders under ..fyi the tight ends coach is now calling the plays..like that;s going to matter..
__________________
posted by phantom
Nov. 30 2006 2:10pm -
0 likes
Pointwise
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2 TCU 45-13
3 Hawaii 55-27
4 UCLA 24-27
2 New Orleans 33-20
3 Chicago 27-10
4 Houston 17-16
4 Jacksonville 22-16
5 Denver 23-17
posted by phantom
Nov. 30 2006 2:16pm -
0 likes
Northcoast - Power Plays Newsletter
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
4* Navy
4* New Mexico St.
4* Cal
4* Wake
4* Arky
4* Hawaii
3* Louisville
2* Oklahoma
posted by phantom
Nov. 30 2006 2:16pm -
0 likes
SS Forecast
CFB Computer Predictions
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Thursday, November 30, 2006
Ohio(+3) vs. Central Michigan
Power Rating Projection:
Central Michigan 23 Ohio 22
Statistical Projections
Ohio 17
Rushing Yards: 162
Passing Yards: 98
Turnovers: 2 Central Michigan 21
Rushing Yards: 126
Passing Yards: 184
Turnovers: 2
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Central Michigan 19 Ohio 18
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Friday, December 1, 2006
Southern Miss(+4½) at Houston
Power Rating Projection:
Houston 27 Southern Miss 20
Statistical Projections
Southern Miss 24
Rushing Yards: 171
Passing Yards: 155
Turnovers: 2 Houston 27
Rushing Yards: 161
Passing Yards: 239
Turnovers: 1
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Houston 23 Southern Miss 17
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Saturday, December 2, 2006
Rutgers(+8½) at West Virginia
Power Rating Projection:
West Virginia 29 Rutgers 22
Statistical Projections
Rutgers 18
Rushing Yards: 124
Passing Yards: 148
Turnovers: 2 West Virginia 28
Rushing Yards: 266
Passing Yards: 126
Turnovers: 2
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
West Virginia 28 Rutgers 21
Angle: After Losing as 20-Point Chalk
Go against West Virginia ( Favored by 1 to 19½ points (or PK), 3-13, 18.8% )
Army(+20) vs. Navy
Power Rating Projection:
Navy 33 Army 16
Statistical Projections
Army 16
Rushing Yards: 102
Passing Yards: 149
Turnovers: 2 Navy 39
Rushing Yards: 422
Passing Yards: 55
Turnovers: 1
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Navy 31 Army 14
Angle: After Bye Week
Go with Navy ( Playing at Neutral Site, Favored by 7½+ Points, 14-8, 63.6% )
Louisiana Tech(+8) at New Mexico State
Power Rating Projection:
New Mexico State 41 Louisiana Tech 23
Statistical Projections
Louisiana Tech 26
Rushing Yards: 140
Passing Yards: 257
Turnovers: 3 New Mexico State 45
Rushing Yards: 112
Passing Yards: 503
Turnovers: 3
** Statistical edge to New Mexico State
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
New Mexico State 48 Louisiana Tech 30
Stanford(+28½) at California
Power Rating Projection:
California 41 Stanford 8
Statistical Projections
Stanford 12
Rushing Yards: 73
Passing Yards: 182
Turnovers: 3 California 39
Rushing Yards: 194
Passing Yards: 267
Turnovers: 1
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
California 38 Stanford 6
Southern Cal(-13) at U.C.L.A.
Power Rating Projection:
Southern Cal 28 U.C.L.A. 18
Statistical Projections
Southern Cal 27
Rushing Yards: 120
Passing Yards: 251
Turnovers: 2 U.C.L.A. 16
Rushing Yards: 99
Passing Yards: 167
Turnovers: 2
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Southern Cal 24 U.C.L.A. 14
Air Force(+17) at Texas Christian
Power Rating Projection:
Texas Christian 31 Air Force 19
Statistical Projections
Air Force 16
Rushing Yards: 165
Passing Yards: 85
Turnovers: 1 Texas Christian 31
Rushing Yards: 211
Passing Yards: 247
Turnovers: 2
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Texas Christian 28 Air Force 17
Fresno State(+4½) at San Jose State
Power Rating Projection:
San Jose State 32 Fresno State 20
Statistical Projections
Fresno State 21
Rushing Yards: 167
Passing Yards: 158
Turnovers: 2 San Jose State 26
Rushing Yards: 159
Passing Yards: 183
Turnovers: 1
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
San Jose State 31 Fresno State 19
Connecticut(+27) at Louisville
Power Rating Projection:
Louisville 41 Connecticut 10
Statistical Projections
Connecticut 15
Rushing Yards: 121
Passing Yards: 140
Turnovers: 2 Louisville 43
Rushing Yards: 195
Passing Yards: 323
Turnovers: 1
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Louisville 40 Connecticut 9
Colorado State(-3) at San Diego State
Power Rating Projection:
Colorado State 22 San Diego State 19
Statistical Projections
Colorado State 25
Rushing Yards: 86
Passing Yards: 257
Turnovers: 1 San Diego State 16
Rushing Yards: 113
Passing Yards: 163
Turnovers: 1
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Colorado State 17 San Diego State 14
Historical trend: Take Colorado State ( Domination by visiting team, 6-1, 85.7% )
Oregon State(+7½) at Hawaii
Power Rating Projection:
Hawaii 39 Oregon State 21
Statistical Projections
Oregon State 23
Rushing Yards: 119
Passing Yards: 252
Turnovers: 2 Hawaii 37
Rushing Yards: 103
Passing Yards: 390
Turnovers: 2
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Hawaii 35 Oregon State 34
Oregon State (1 star)
Angle: Fourth Straight Home Game
Go against Hawaii ( Won previous three games, Favored in 1st three games, 6-16, 27.3% )
UL-Monroe(+3) at UL-Lafayette
Power Rating Projection:
UL-Lafayette 22 UL-Monroe 21
Statistical Projections
UL-Monroe 22
Rushing Yards: 138
Passing Yards: 195
Turnovers: 1 UL-Lafayette 16
Rushing Yards: 172
Passing Yards: 120
Turnovers: 3
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
UL-Lafayette 16 UL-Monroe 14
Historical trend: Take UL-Monroe ( Domination by underdog, 6-0-1, 100.0% )
Troy(-12½) at Florida Intl
Power Rating Projection:
Troy 24 Florida Intl 16
Statistical Projections
Troy 19
Rushing Yards: 91
Passing Yards: 191
Turnovers: 2 Florida Intl 10
Rushing Yards: 55
Passing Yards: 182
Turnovers: 2
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Troy 18 Florida Intl 10
Wake Forest(+3) vs. Georgia Tech
Power Rating Projection:
Wake Forest 21 Georgia Tech 20
Statistical Projections
Wake Forest 17
Rushing Yards: 108
Passing Yards: 126
Turnovers: 2 Georgia Tech 17
Rushing Yards: 137
Passing Yards: 156
Turnovers: 2
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Wake Forest 16 Georgia Tech 14
Arkansas(+3) vs. Florida
Power Rating Projection:
Florida 23 Arkansas 21
Statistical Projections
Arkansas 19
Rushing Yards: 170
Passing Yards: 127
Turnovers: 2 Florida 22
Rushing Yards: 141
Passing Yards: 193
Turnovers: 1
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Florida 18 Arkansas 16
Nebraska(+3½) vs. Oklahoma
Power Rating Projection:
Nebraska 25 Oklahoma 24
Statistical Projections
Nebraska 24
Rushing Yards: 135
Passing Yards: 211
Turnovers: 2 Oklahoma 21
Rushing Yards: 203
Passing Yards: 161
Turnovers: 3
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Nebraska 22 Oklahoma 21
posted by phantom
Nov. 30 2006 2:17pm