COLLEGE FOOTBALL WEEK 13
Winding down, but are we having Fun yet??..... 
posted by phantom
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Kevin o.neill & friends (the Max)
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4
Dave Fobare’s College Tech Play of the Week
@Rutgers (-15) over Syracuse
Last Saturday the clock finally struck midnight for
this season's Cinderella. After their emotional come
from behind win over Louisville on national TV
Rutgers found they had no magic left when
Cincinnati grabbed the lead. At just 52%
completions on the season, QB Mike Teel just did
not have the proficiency to lead the Knights on
another comeback.
But that loss now provides exceptional pointspread
value. The Scarlet Knights are by far the better team
here. Most importantly Rutgers owns huge edges in
the ground game. They outrush their opponents by
a wide margin (5.0 to 2.8 ypr), while the
Orangemen have been dominated both on the
ground (3.0 to 4.7 yards/rush) and in the air (6.2 to
7.3 yards/attempt). Prior to Syracuse's win last week
against UConn, the Orangemen had been outyarded
by more than 1200 yards in their previous six
games. Overall my yards per play stat model pegs
Rutgers as a 20-point favorite in the matchup. It is
very unlikely that Rutgers will need Mike Teel's arm
to lead them to victory. The gap between these two
teams is more than large enough for Rutgers to get
back to what it does best: win a rush-based slugfest
in the trenches. Under Greg Schiano Rutgers has
enjoyed its best pointspread success against the
weaker teams. Syracuse is 4-7 on the season and
the Scarlet Knights have covered 9 of their last 12
when facing losing opponents. And for the
Orangemen familiarity does seem to breed
contempt. 'Cuse entered the 2006 at the low ebb of
public expectations and as a result was able to get
the cash in their first 4 games of the season. But
once Big East play began Syracuse fell back again.
They are 3-3 ATS in conference play, with two of
those covers coming by less than a field goal.
This is a sandwich game for Rutgers; on tap is a visit
to West Virginia. If they are to pull off the upset
next week they need some recent success to feel
good about before traveling to Morgantown. Greg
Schiano will recognize this and make sure there will
be no looking ahead in this game. And this is also
Rutgers' final home game of the 2006 season.
Thanks to Rutgers' fine record both at home and
overall the Knights apply to a 69-35 ATS "last home
game" system that should ensure a motivated
squad. Take Rutgers minus the points.
posted by phantom
Nov. 22 2006 1:39pm -
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Final Game Revenge: In the final game of the regular season for both teams of an intra-state matchup,
play road dogs up to +7 that lost last year's meeting.
Pointspread Record Since 1991: 24-7 ATS (77.4%)
This week’s application: Bowling Green, East Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia Tech
Value Reversal: Play on any double-digit underdog in the NFL that was a double-digit favorite in the
previous game.
Pointspread Record since 1991: 7-2 (78%)
This week’s application: Philadelphia Eagles
The Champs Are Back: Play on the defending college football national champion during the regular
season if they lost SU as a favorite in their last game.
Pointspread record since 1980: 20-5-1 (80%)
This week’s application: Texas
__________________
posted by phantom
Nov. 22 2006 1:40pm -
0 likes
Kevin o.neill & friends (the Max)
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College Football
Friday, November 24th, 2006
Hogging the Spotlight
@Arkansas (-1) over LSU
After rampaging through an embarrassingly weak
home schedule, LSU barely snuck away with an
overtime win over Ole’ Miss on Saturday night. The
Tigers were especially sloppy and were held to less
than 300 yards of total offense by an undersized
Ole’ Miss defense that hasn’t stopped a lot of people
this year but played inspired football in this one.
Arkansas struggled to a 28-14 win at Mississippi
State, while MSU is playing good ball right now, it
wasn’t domination on the line of scrimmage, but
rather big plays. So both of these clubs were largely
outplayed in ugly wins heading into this one.
While Arkansas has clinched the Western Division
crown, this game is still a meaningful one for both
teams. Arkansas needs to win impressively to have
a chance to pass Michigan if USC loses to Notre
Dame this weekend. But LSU has designs on a BCS
berth (they need a win here and a lot of help).
Veteran Hogs have lost 3 straight to LSU, so you
know this game has extreme meaning for them, and
it is a bigger rivalry for folks in Arkansas than it is
for the Louisianans. Every few years when Houston
Nutt has Arkansas cranked up they tend to be very
strong in big games and at home. Les Miles hasn’t
been much of a big game coach at LSU, as he is 0-
7-1 against the spread in SEC games with lines of
less than 10. Would rather go with Nutt’s
Razorbacks in a big game. Arkansas by 6.
Under the Radar
Colorado (+15) over @Nebraska
Colorado is under the radar screen in Dan Hawkins’
first year, and there’s a good reason for it, they’ve
only won 2 of 11 games. But remember that there
is some talent here, as this team won the Big 12
North in 4 of the past 5 seasons and all the good
players didn’t disappear at once. Rather they’ve had
a hard time (and haven’t had the quarterback) to
catch on to Dan Hawkins’ offensive system. Early in
the season that was particularly acute, as the
Buffalos didn’t score more than 13 points in a game
in their first 5 contests. But the offense has come
alive to a certain extend in the last 6 contests,
scoring 30 points or more in half of those affairs.
They aren’t a tremendous offensive team by any
stretch, but they’ve been respectable.
The defense has been quite good. Of their 9 losses,
4 have been by 5 points or fewer and the largest
margin of defeat was by 21, and that was a game
where Oklahoma punched in a score in the closing
seconds of the game. This has been a competitive
team thanks to the defense, and now the offense is
improving and you know that Hawkins will have
some wrinkles for Nebraska with 2 weeks to
prepare.
The Huskers are a good team but no worldbeaters.
Their defense looked to be strong early but in their
last 4 games Nebraska has allowed 22, 41, 20, and
27 points. They have only one conference win of
more than 14 points, and that was by 18. Nebraska
cruised to an easy 30-3 win in this rivalry last year,
they have the Big 12 title contest on deck, and are
well aware that Colorado is 2-9. None of that
speaks to a peak and emotion-fueled effort here by
the Cornhuskers. Look for Colorado to hang around
for a while in this one. Nebraska by only 8.
Saturday, November 25th, 2006
Experience vs. Youth
Wake Forest (+1½) over @Maryland
Wake Forest has won this season by making big
plays, and they lost by giving up big plays to Virginia
Tech on Saturday night. The Hokies scored 3 TD’s
of 35 yards or more as Wake Forest made surprising
mistakes and tackled poorly. They looked
unprepared, and preparedness is the hallmark of a
Jim Grobe coached team. After early results made
the Virginia Tech game less important, Grobe held
RB Kenneth Moore out of the game. Wake had
talked a good game all week about the importance
of Virginia Tech but they appear to be looking
ahead. A win here gives Wake Forest the title in
their division of the ACC and sends them on to play
Georgia Tech in the title game.
With so much on the line for Wake Forest today we
expect the 18 starters who are in their 4th or 5th year
in the program to come up big. Widely to be
considered a year away from their peak, youngish
Maryland has been doing it with mirrors all season
long, failing to outgain a single Division 1-A
opponent. But they got belted on Saturday at BC,
as Sam Hollenbach fumbled twice in the games first
4 minutes, with both returned for BC TD’s and it was
off to the races. For BC. Despite facing a softened
BC defense (BC led 35-9 in the 3rd) Maryland
averaged only 2.5 yards per rush. If BC beats Miami
Thursday night this is for nothing but pride for
Maryland. Wake Forest by 7.
Hidden Rivalry
Kansas (+7) over @Missouri
1300+yard running back Jon Cornish went for over
200 yards in Kansas’ statement win over rival
Kansas State. But don’t think that this game isn’t
important to the Jayhawks. Kansas/Missouri is a
significant rivalry as well. And in addition to this
rivalry, 6-5 Kansas needs this game to make sure
they have a bowl opportunity. Kansas has their
offense cooking, and are averaging 31 points per
game in conference play.
Missouri on the other hand, looked very strong early
in the season and started 6-0. But reality has hit
hard, with the Tigers losing 4 of their last 5 games,
including a Saturday loss to hapless Iowa State, who
played an inspired game for their outgoing coach.
Missouri’s poor performance against such a weak
team fits a pattern of last season wearing down, as
Mizzou is 1-10 against the spread in their final 4
regular season games from 2004-2006, a late
season weakness which leads some to think that the
new $1.3 million per year contract for coach Gary
Pinkle announced the day before the was a mistake.
In 6 of their 7 conference games the Tigers have
allowed 180 rushing yards or more. Though it is a
rivalry, the Tigers may have trouble getting up for
this game after seeing a potential game winning TD
in the Iowa State game called back on a flag,
leaving QB Chase Daniel in tears. Don’t see a
turnaround in Missouri’s future, take the points.
Kansas by 1.
Egg Bowl
Mississippi State (+3) over @Mississippi
Both of these teams have struggled with their new
coaches for the past couple of years Ed Orgeron at
Ole’ Miss and Sylvester Croom at MSU inherited
programs with problems. Orgeron succeeded David
Cutcliffe, who had a run of success with Eli Manning
but then after a bad year and poor recruiting was
shown the door. Croom inherited a disaster from
Jackie Sherrill. This game (for the Egg Bowl)
doesn’t have the same cache that it had a few years
ago but it is important in the Magnolia State.
Ole’ Miss was fired up for their game against an LSU
team that overlooked them due to the Rebels having
only 2 wins against 1-A opposition. Ole’ Miss has a
couple of former Miami-FL assistant coaches who
were fired as a result of the Hurricanes bowl
annihilation at the hands of LSU last year (clearly
they weren’t the problem) and with a week off
before this game the coaches transferred their
motivation to their players. The overtime loss was a
gutbuster, as the Rebels had a 20-7 lead with less
than 9 minutes left. A score by LSU with 14 seconds
left appeared to be the game-winner but LSU gave
the Rebs hope by missing the extra point. But Ole’
Miss was crushed again when they turned the ball
over in OT and then allowed LSU to score for the
win. That might be tough to bounce back from,
despite the rivalry here. The Rebs did a good job
to hang around in a game in which they failed to get
200 yards of offense, getting outgained 308-195.
Mississippi State actually outplayed Arkansas at the
point of attack in their 28-14 pointspread covering
loss, outrushing and outpassing the Hogs to the
tune of a 355-256 total yardage advantage. But
MSU gave up an 87-yard interception return and a
kickoff return in the first quarter and allowed a TD
on a trick play later in the game. But the Bulldogs
played well enough to know that they should have
been in this game.
While both clubs have struggled, when you study
the stats of these two teams, MSU is clearly
superior. Ole’ Miss has outgained only a single 1-A
team all year and their recent games against 1-A
opponents have seen them outgained by -112, -172,
-101, -147, and -221. State’s recent yardage totals
have been +99, -14, +18, -72, and –111 (against
West Virginia, which isn’t bad at all). Both of these
teams have some players back who had been lost to
injury and now return. The superior play on the line
of scrimmage is important and MSU won’t be
intimidated in Oxford, as in recent road games they
won at Alabama and lost by a field goal at Georgia.
We’ll look for a MSU “upsetâ€
posted by phantom
Nov. 22 2006 1:41pm -
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Sports Reporters Best Bets
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RECOMMENDED
*MIAMI-OHIO over OHIO by 5
The margin between the haves and the have-nots in a conference such as the MAC is a
lot slimmer than it is in a power conference, which is one of the reasons why a postclinch
team with nothing to play for such as Ohio is in a bad spot here. Ohio's lackluster
offense is reliant upon its defense to set it up in good position, and with little to play for
here, an uninspired effort from the defense will make it even harder for Ohio. Despite
being in unaccustomed role of playing out the string, Miami still is playing hard, as evidenced
by how it rallied from 7-0 halftime deficit to win in a mud bowl at Bowling Green
last week. Miami QB Mike Kokal has been improving steadily, and has 12 TDs and seven
INTs. Ohio QB Austen Everson won’t beat anyone with his arm. MIAMI-OHIO, 19-14.
RECOMMENDED
*AKRON over WESTERN MICHIGAN by 10
Western, which enters this game on a 1-3 ATS run, closes its season with the last of three
consecutive road games and figures to run into a motivated opponent. Yeah, Akron’s
chances of repeating as both MAC East and overall conference champions have long
since evaporated, but the Zips still can avoid a losing season with a win here on Senior
Day. QB Luke Getsy (18 TDs, 10 INTs) is one of nine senior starters for Akron and is the
most prolific passer in the MAC this season. He should be able to find some openings in
Western’s secondary. WMU has the ninth-rated offense in the league, so an Akron lead
should be safe. AKRON, 27-17.
BEST BET
LSU over *ARKANSAS by 12
LSU came out flat against Ole Miss last week and certainly did not expect the dogfight
that they got. The Tigers will be more than ready when they face Arkansas this week. You
can be that Les Miles and his coaching staff spent the Ole Miss week prepping for the
high powered Razorback running offense. The Tigers surrender less than 80 yards per
game on the ground, and while it is not likely that they will keep the Hogs under 100,
they will make QB Casey Dick beat them. Can he? He has performed well, but has not
been asked to carry the load. LSU should be able to take advantage of their speed at
receiver to hit a few big plays in the passing game. Houston Nutt’s hogs have wrapped
up the SEC West and a date with Florida in the SEC Championship game. While an undefeated
conference slate and extreme outside shot at the national title game are there,
this is not a do or die game. LSU, 33-21.
RECOMMENDED
*NEBRASKA over COLORADO by 6
Next Saturday’s Big 12 Championship Game in Kansas City is
a big look-ahead for Bill Callahan’s Cornhuskers. Winning that game would elevate
Nebraska into the Fiesta Bowl on January 1, where they could smirk at the world as a
four-loss team if they happen to slip up here. Last season’s lopsided Nebraska win in
Boulder was accomplished with Nebraska’s defense essentially in Colorado’s huddle,
courtesy of lazy ex-coach Barnett, who didn’t change offensive calls despite his ex-RB
coach being employed by Nebraska. First-season regimes like Dan Hawkins and his 2-9
SU Colorado crew usually attempt to reverse some wrongs and give a show of thanks to
their new bosses in situations like this. Colorado’s defense figures to load up against the
run and hope that Nebraska is content to pound the ground and win by “volume rushingâ€
posted by phantom
Nov. 22 2006 1:42pm -
0 likes
Power Sweep:
CFB:
4* Hawaii
3* Tennessee
3* Rutgers
2* UTEP
2* FSU
2* Missouri
Dog: Colorado (+)
NFL:
4* Carolina
3* New England
2* Minnesota
2* Pittsburgh
Power Ratings Play: San Francisco
Angle Plays: (3) San Diego, NYJets, Minnesota
Totals: (3) Cin Over, NO Over, Steelers Under, (2) Carolina Under, Jags Under
posted by phantom
Nov. 22 2006 1:43pm -
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MTI .killer sports
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one of the best newsletters around..
4-Star ST LOUIS -6 over San Franciscoâ€â€The Rams have no
hope to win the division this season. Last week they had 12 possessions
vs the Panthers and they had nine punts, an interception, a
fumble and a safety and finished with 111 yards. MTi’s 5-Star Top
Late play last week was on Carolina -6’ over the Rams. They clearly
had nothing left after their all-out, last-ditch effort against the Seahawks
the previous week. Here, however, they will come to play.
The Rams proud offense should recover here, as they are 8-0 ATS
(7.0 ppg) as a home favorite the week after a road game in which
they had at least three fewer minutes of possession time than their
season-to-date average.
At 4-6 and no hope for the playoffs, the Rams have to focus on
gaining respect within their division. The 49ers have beaten the Rams
three straight as an underdog and the Rams have to keep them from
thinking they are the second best team in the NFC West. St Louis has
focused on these spots in the past, and they have done well. Indeed,
the Rams are 6-0-1 ATS (7.5 ppg) since week 7, 1990 as a favorite
when facing a divisional opponent that has a better record.
Yes, the 5-5 49ers are a game better than the 4-6 Rams. San Francisco
has done it by winning three straight. They beat the Vikings
9-3 at home, they beat the Lions 19-13 in Detroit and last week the
49ers surprised the Seahawks 20-14.
A closer look at these games, however, reveals that the 49ers got a
bit lucky in the wins. In their game vs the Vikings, for example, the
49ers got 8 first downs and the Vikings had 17. Brad Johnson committed
three turnovers and the Vikings dropped numerous passes to
give the 49ers the game. The following week in Detroit, the Lions
committed four turnovers, the last of which was an interception at the
49ers 2-yard line with just over two minutes left in the game.
Last week, the Seahawks lost two fumbles and threw three interceptions
against the 49ers and San Francisco held on to win 20-14
behind a great rushing game. All this means that the 49ers think they
are a lot better than they actually are. If a team is benefitting from
4-5 turnovers a game, it’s not surprising that they are winning. San
Francisco has too passive in this situation in the past, simply waiting
for the opponent to turn the ball over. This has not gotten them the
money. Indeed, San Francisco is 0-7 ATS on the road when they had
a positive takeaway margin in each of their last three games, falling
short of the linesmakers’ expectations by an average of 19.8 ppg!
In addition, the 49ers are 0-6 ATS (-11.0 ppg) as a road dog when
they won and covered their last two games, failing to cover by an
average of 11.0 ppg.
Last week, Seattle’s defense was counting on Shaun Alexander’s
return to carry them and they were not mentally prepared for the
49ers’ rushing game. Frank Gore had 212 yards in 24 attempts vs
Seattle and others added 50 more rushing yards to San Francisco’s
rushing total. This actually does not bode well for their chances here.
The league is a poor 4-21 ATS on the road after a win as a home dog
in which they rushed for more than 200 yards. The league is 1-12
ATS their last 13 in this situation, with the only cover a 17-24 loss
as a 7’ point underdog.
The 49ers are “livin’ largeâ€
posted by phantom
Nov. 24 2006 3:49am -
0 likes
Red Sheet
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ARIZONA 31 - Arizona State 13 - (6:00 EST) -- Line opened at Arizona minus 3, and is now minus 4. A few
weeks ago, the spread on this one would have been something along the lines of the Devils
as appoximate TD chalks. Not the case anymore, as the fortunes of these 2 have changed
dramatically. The Wildcats, of course, are turnaround poster boys, as they've upped their
record from 3-5, to their current 6-5 log. And how they've done it: 3 consecutive upsets,
covering by an eye-popping 26, 17½ & 41 pts! It has all coincided with the return of QB
Tuitama, along with a rock solid "D", which has allowed only 105 RYpg vs the likes of
WashSt, California, & Oregon. Just the opposite for the Devils, who lost their last road
game, 44-10, & failed to produce a TD last wk, vs Ucla's 99th rated "D". Revenge.
RATING: ARIZONA 89\
South Carolina 22 - CLEMSON 20 - (12:00) -- Line opened at Clemson minus 6, and is now minus 5. The
above writeup was focused on the turnaround, & this contest contains more of the same.
Just a month ago, the Tigers of Clemson were flying high, standing at 7-1, with their only
setback by a single pt in overtime at BostonCollege. Not only that, but they were piling up
pts & RYs at a prodigious clip. They then were completely throttled by VirginiaTech, in a
nationally televised Thursday Night game, & haven't even approached their pre-Hokie selves.
We made the mistake of jumping on them in their "bounceback" game against Maryland: no
TDs in 13-12 loss (20-pt ATS loss). Are now 53 pts behind the spot in their last 3 games.
Gamecocks couldn't overcome 5 TOs in last year's narrow loss. Payback.
RATING: SOUTH CAROLINA 89
Byu 45 - UTAH 20 - (3:30) -- Line opened at Byu minus 10, and is now minus 10½. Revenge call #3. A year
ago, the Cougars of Byu began their explosive run, averaging 46.5 ppg in their final 4
regular season games. Their only glitch in that span, was provided by the Utes, who posted
a 41-34 OT win, as 10-pt dogs. In that one, the Cougars overcame a 24-3 deficit, only to fail
in the extra session. So you know that Byu has been pointing to this rematch for quite some
time. And they again bring along a powerful offense. How about 41 ppg in 15 of their last
16 outings, with their only spread setback this season coming by a mere 1½ pts, due to an
88-yd INT return. The Utes have had decent success, to be sure, but that only serves to
give us added value. Beck & Co have been near unstoppable. Ditto.
RATING: BYU 88
WEST VIRGINIA 45 - South Florida 14 - (12:00) -- Line opened at WestVirginia minus 19½, and still minus
19½. They just keep keeping on. The Mounties have been absolutely spectacular since
they turned on the overland burners halfway thru last season. Behind the brilliance of
Slaton & White, they've become the envy of every team in the nation. As a team, they
average an unbelievable 7.2 yds per carry, with Slaton at 7.74 yds for every run, & White at
an unthinkable 8.3 ypc (1,578 & 1,057 RYs respectively). And they did it all a week ago, in
comeback wipeout at Pitt. Try a 438 RY edge in that one. And throw in the fact that the
Panthers were held scoreless in the 2nd half. The Bulls of SoFla are again bowl-bound, &
rank a decent 39th in rushing "D". But it means little vs this juggernaut.
RATING: WEST VIRGINIA 88
NEVADA 34 - Boise State 26 - (4:00 - ESPN2) -- Line opened at Boise minus 2½, and is now minus 3. Last
obstacle in Boise's quest for a perfect season. No doubt the folks in Boise have little
respect for the polls, ranking a mere 12th in the nation, despite their perfect slate. Only
OhioSt can make such a claim. But before the curtain rings down on their spotless '06
season, they have a huge hurdle to cross. Boise stands at 11-0 SU, to be sure, but this is
not the normal Bronco extermination type of squad: 3 wins by TD or less, including last
second 3-pt escape in last RG. The Wolfpack, on the other hand, has covered 9 straight,
averaging 36 ppg. Try a combined 135-7 pt edge last 3 games. Many scores to settle.
RATING: NEVADA 88
NEW ENGLAND 26 - Chicago 16 - (4:15) -- Line opened at NewEngland minus 3, and is still minus 3. All
the markings of a possible Super Bowl preview here (for the 2nd time: 21 years ago), as a
peek at our weekly Pointwise Power Ratings have these 2, along with the Chargers & Colts,
with our highest ranking (Cowboys just a pt behind). The Bears, obviously, have made
more waves this season, with their dominating start, featuring the best defense in the league,
accompanied by a suddenly potent offense. Their one misstep came in a 6 TO effort in
hosting Miami. But that was followed by wipeout comeback vs the Giants & a shutout of the
Jets (0 pts allowed in last 5 quarters). But the Pats are again among the elites, not only
with their Brady-led "O", but try only 1 foe above 17 pts. Big game champs.
RATING: NEW ENGLAND 88
NEAR CHOICES (Rated 87): NewMexico, Hawaii, OklaSt, SanJoseSt -- NFL: Minny, Houston, Seattle
LINE MOVES (from largest to smallest move): CentFlorida (Pick to -2½); Florida (-7½ to -9½); Purdue
(+18 to +16); OregonSt (-1½ to -3); NewMexico (-8½ to -10); SMU (+4½ to +3); Louisville (-10 to -11½);
FlaAtlantic (-3½ to -5) - NFL: Philadelphia (+12 to +9) - TIME CHANGES: Denver/KansasCity: now 8:00....
posted by phantom
Nov. 24 2006 3:50am -
0 likes
pointwise phone plays
4* usc hawaii
3* ecu byu sc nev. vt ariz. nm
2 * wf okla.st. tenn.
Ness legend play on the SC Gamecocks
Marc Lawrence
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Marc Lawrence 100% Perfect CFB Super Pick Super Play! - Saturday 11/15:
Play On: Florida State
Note: Seminoles play their Last Home Game of the season with revenge from a 34-7 smashing in the Swamp against Florida on their minds today. With Florida head coach Urban Meyer 0-6-1 ATS as a favorite of 8 > points off BB wins against a winning team in his CFB head coaching career, look for the Seminole to pull the shocker here today. Take the points with FSU.
posted by phantom
Nov. 25 2006 1:03am -
0 likes
Tom Scott
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TOM SCOTT'S SATURDAY KICKOFF SHOCKER 65-5!
Florida at FLORIDA ST - 12:00 PM EST
Play ON: #362 -FLORIDA ST plus the points
That super system is more than enough to handle this job. However, it never hurts to have more support and the team trends in this game provide plenty of that. Florida State is an amazing 51-4 SU at home off an ATS loss, including 21-7 ATS against an opponent off a win and 17-5 ATS against non-ACC foes. Florida, maybe the nation's worst road favorite, is 1-11 to the line in its last dozen tries as road chalk. Add Urban Meyer's incendiary comments earlier this week and you have an enraged band of Seminoles working in their best role for you today.
PREDICTION: FLORIDA ST 34 - Florida 20
Dr. Bob
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4 Star Selection
****GEORGIA (-2.0) 26 Georgia Tech 12
12:30 PM Pacific, 25-Nov-06
I've been waiting for a good time to go against the overrated Yellow Jackets and this looks like the week to do it. Georgia Tech is 9-2, but they've played a pretty soft schedule and their compensated stats are not that impressive. The Yellow Jackets' offense has averaged only 5.2 yards per play this season with Reggie Ball at quarterback, which is not good when considering that their opponents would combine to allow 5.6 yppl to an average team. Georgia's defense has allowed just 4.6 yppl to teams that would average 5.4 yppl against an average stop unit, so the Bulldogs have a 1.2 yppl advantage over Tech's offense. Georgia Tech is known for their good defense, and they do rate at 0.7 yppl better than average if I exclude the stats against Samford and Duke, when the first unit didn't play much. Georgia's offense has been playing pretty well the last 6 weeks and they are now 0.3 yppl better than average for the season (5.7 yppl against teams that would allow 5.4 yppl), so Georgia Tech's defense only has a 0.4 yppl advantage. Aside from being the better team from the line of scrimmage, the Bulldogs have superior special teams and are at home. My math model favors Georgia by 10 points in this game and Georgia Tech applies to a very negative 15-57-3 ATS situation. I'll take Georgia in a 4-Star Best Bet at -3 points or less, for 3-Stars from -3 ½ to -5 points, and for 2-Stars up to -7 points.
4 Star Selection
****Marshall 27 SOUTHERN MISS (-7.5) 24
04:30 PM Pacific, 25-Nov-06
Marshall played a tough early schedule that includes blowout losses at West Virginia, Kansas State and Tennessee and the Thundering Herd were 0-5 straight up and 0-5 ATS in games against Division 1A opponents heading into their game at UAB. You may recall that my math model pegged Marshall as a very underrated team for that game and I rode the Herd to a couple of Best Bet winners. Marshall is 4-1 straight up and 4-1 ATS since my math model tabbed them as an underrated team and the Herd are still underrated. Marshall is not good defensively, allowing 5.9 yards per play to teams that would combine to average 5.2 yppl against an average team, but the Herd make up for it with a versatile offensive attack that has averaged 6.2 yppl against teams that would allow 5.5 yppl to an average team. Overall, Marshall is an average team from the line of scrimmage, which is better than a Southern Miss squad that is 0.3 yppl worse than average on offense (5.2 yppl against teams that would allow 5.5 yppl) and average defensively (5.1 yppl against teams that would average 5.1 yppl). My math model favors Southern Miss by just 1 point in this game and Marshall applies to a very good 53-15-1 ATS road underdog revenge situation. I'll take Marshall in a 4-Star Best Bet at +7 points or more, for 3-Stars at +6 ½ and +6, and for 2-Stars from +5 ½ to +4 points.
3 Star Selection
***USC (-7.5) 33 Notre Dame 16
05:00 PM Pacific, 25-Nov-06
I've been waiting for this game for some time and Notre Dame has remained overrated by beating up on bad teams in recent weeks. The Irish, however, aren't good enough to compete with elite team with speed, which certainly describes USC. Notre Dame has played only one elite team this season and they were whipped 21-47 at home by Michigan. Playing on the road against a USC squad that is playing their best football of the year is a recipe for another blowout loss for the Irish. Last year's game was close on the scoreboard, but USC dominated from the line of scrimmage in that game, out-gaining the Irish 7.4 yards per play to 4.8 yppl. The Irish are mediocre defensively (5.1 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.2 yppl against an average team) and they don't have the speed in the secondary to defend USC's great receiving corps. The Trojans' offense isn't as good as in recent seasons, but they are still 0.9 yppl better than average (5.9 yppl against teams that would allow 5.0 yppl) and have a 0.8 yppl advantage over the Irish defense. Notre Dame's offense isn't as good as it was last season and they have been only 0.5 yppl better than average this season, averaging 5.8 yppl against teams that would combine to allow 5.3 yppl to an average team. That unit has been held in check by good defensive teams this season, as the Irish have averaged just 4.7 yppl against 4 better than average defensive teams that they've faced this season (Georgia Tech, Penn State, Michigan, and UCLA), who would combine to allow 4.6 yppl to an average team. USC's defense has shut down the more potent offenses of Oregon and Cal the last two weeks, holding those teams to a combined 4.2 yppl (those teams would combine to average 6.4 yppl against an average defensive team), and they have been 1.2 yppl better than average for the season (4.6 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.8 yppl). USC has a significant advantage on both sides of the ball in this game and my math model favors the Trojans by 14 points. In addition to the line value USC applies to a solid 190-96-7 ATS home momentum situation and they are once again playing their best football at the end of the season (now 25-7 ATS under Carroll from game 8 on, including 3-0 ATS this season). I'll take USC in a 4-Star Best Bet at -7 points or less, for 3-Stars from -7 ½ to -9 points, and for 2-Stars at -9 ½ or -10 points.
2 Star Selection
**PITTSBURGH 28 Louisville (-11.5) 30
12:30 PM Pacific, 25-Nov-06
Pittsburgh gave up 642 yards at 10.4 yards per play in last week's 27-45 home loss to West Virginia, but the Panthers will defend better against the more conventional Louisville attack. Pitt actually still has decent defensive numbers for the season even after last week's atrocious effort, as the Panthers have allowed 5.2 yppl against teams that would combine to average 5.2 yppl against an average defensive team. Louisville is 1.6 yppl better than average on offense (7.0 yppl against teams that would allow 5.4 yppl), but Pittsburgh should be able to stay close with an offense that has been 1.0 yppl better than average this season (6.4 yppl against teams that would allow 5.4 yppl). The Cardinals are only 0.2 yppl better than average on defense (5.1 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.3 yppl against an average team) and they haven't been as good away from home. Louisville is a great team at home (16-6 ATS under coach Petrino), but the Cardinals don't play nearly as well away from home (11-13-1 ATS) and they're 1-7 ATS in their last 8 as a road favorite of less than 21 points. Pittsburgh has lost 4 consecutive games straight up and to the pointspread, but my math model only favors Louisville by 1 ½ points in this game using full season stats and the math would favor Louisville by only 6 ½ points using the last 4 games for each team (when Pitt has played their worst). So, the Panthers are likely to cover even if they play at the same level as they've played during their losing streak. I'll take Pittsburgh in a 2-Star Best Bet at +10 points or more.
2 Star Selection
**San Jose St. (-6.5) 31 IDAHO 17
02:00 PM Pacific, 25-Nov-06
San Jose State was predictably flat last week after giving up a late lead in their near upset of Boise State the week before, but I expect the Spartans to bounce back against an inferior foe. San Jose's only losses this season have been to superior teams Washington, Nevada, Boise State, and Hawaii and they should control the Vandals on both sides of the ball. San Jose State has a pretty good offensive attack that has averaged 6.0 yards per play this season against a schedule of teams that would allow 5.9 yppl to an average team. That unit should have no trouble scoring against a porous Idaho defense that has allowed 6.3 yppl to teams that would average 5.4 yppl against an average defense. The Spartans have scored 31 points or more in 4 of 5 games against sub-par defensive teams and the only time they didn't (21 points against Utah State) they averaged 6.9 yppl but turned the ball over 4 times. Idaho's offense has managed just 5.1 yppl despite facing a schedule of teams that would allow 5.9 yppl to an average team, and the Spartans defense (5.5 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.3 yppl) has an advantage in that match-up. Idaho also has horrible special teams and has a quarterback that has a history of throwing interceptions – while the Spartans have a quarterback that has thrown just 5 picks all season. My math model favors San Jose State by 13 points and the Spartans apply to a decent 153-77-6 ATS statistical match-up indicator. There is a situation that would go against San Jose State if they were favored by more than 7 points, so I'll take San Jose State in a 2-Star Best Bet at -7 points or less only.
Strong Opinion
MIDDLE TENN (-9.0) 24 Troy State 21
12:30 PM Pacific, 25-Nov-06
This game is for the Sun Belt Conference title and my math model favors Middle Tennessee State by 11 points. Troy State, however, applies to a very strong 62-11 ATS road underdog bounce-back situation. I'll consider Troy State a Strong Opinion at +7 ½ or more and I'd take Troy as a 2-Star Best Bet at +10 points or more.
Strong Opinion
Arizona St. 20 ARIZONA (-3.5) 18
03:00 PM Pacific, 25-Nov-06
Arizona has pulled off 3 consecutive upset wins over Washington State, Cal, and Oregon, but I'm still not buying into the idea that the Wildcats are suddenly a great team after struggling for most of the season. Arizona's recent win streak has more to do with good fortune (+9 in turnover margin in those 3 wins) than it does with improved play, as they were out-gained in those 3 wins by an average of 39 yards and 0.6 yards per play. Quarterback Willie Tuitama appears to have returned to the form he had at the end of last season, but he still has averaged only 5.1 yards per pass play this season (against teams that would combine to allow 5.6 yppp to an average quarterback). Since the Wildcats have the same two top receivers as last season I decided to include Tuitama's great numbers from last season to gauge his likely performance level going forward. Tuitama's career average is 5.9 yppp against teams that would allow just 5.6 yppp, so I'll rate the Arizona pass attack at +0.3 yppp instead of -0.5 yppp. The Wildcats still have a horrible rushing attack even after last week's mysteriously good numbers, as they've averaged just 3.8 yards per rushing play this season and my overall rating for the offense is still 0.2 yppl worse than average. Arizona State's offense has been very inconsistent this season, but they've been 0.4 yppl better than average (5.6 yppl against teams that would allow 5.2 yppl to an average team). However, ASU's attack hasn't been nearly as good since averaging 7.7 yppl in their first two games. If I exclude those two games then I rate the Arizona State offense at just 0.3 yppl better than average (5.2 yppl against teams that would allow 4.9 yppl to an average team). Arizona State's offense rates at 0.5 yppl better than Arizona's attack and you might find it surprising that the defensive numbers also favor the Sun Devils. ASU has allowed 5.0 yppl to teams that would combine to average 5.6 yppl while Arizona has yielded 5.4 yppl to teams that would average 5.9 yppl against an average team. Arizona State also has better special teams and my math model favors Arizona State by 1 ½ points even after making adjustments that favor Arizona (i.e. adding Tuitama's good stats from last year to his sub-par stats from this year and excluding ASU's big offensive numbers from their first two games). I'll consider Arizona State a Strong Opinion at +3 points or more.
Strong Opinion
TEXAS EL PASO (-11.5) 40 Memphis 23
06:00 PM Pacific, 25-Nov-06
Memphis has covered the spread in two consecutive games after starting the season 0-7-1 against the number. The Tigers are still overrated and have one of the very worse pass defenses in the nation, allowing 7.9 yards per pass play to teams that would combine to average only 5.5 yppp against an average defensive team. UTEP's Jordan Palmer is having a good year throwing the football (7.6 yppp against teams that would combine to allow 6.4 yppp to an average quarterback) and he should have no trouble finding open receivers in this game. My math model favors UTEP by 17 points and they are playing to become bowl eligible. Teams that are one game under .500 or at .500 are 29-7 ATS as home favorite of more than 4 points in their regular season finale, so there is some technical support for the Miners. I'll consider UTEP a Strong Opinion at -13 points or less and I would take UTEP for a 2-Star Best Bet if the line goes down to -10 or less (which is doubtful).
__________________
posted by phantom
Nov. 25 2006 1:03am -
0 likes
Big Al's 100% ATS SEC Conference Game of the Year
At 12:30, our SEC Game of the Year is on the Tennessee Volunteers, as we will fade the Kentucky Wildcats, who are locked into a nasty 0-11 ATS situation. Kentucky will come into this game off a 3-game home stand, and that spells trouble for road teams playing their final game of the season. In that situation, when playing a home team in its final game, if that home team is also off a SU/ATS win, then our road team is 0-11 ATS since 1981. Tennessee has won 21 straight games vs. Kentucky and is 17-9 ATS vs. the Wildcats since 1980. Lay the large number. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. And don't miss my College Football Underdog of the Year on Saturday.
Big Al's 100% (24-0) NCAA FB Underdog of the Year
At 4:15 PM (time change), our College Football Underdog of the Year is on the Nevada Wolf Pack plus the points over Boise State. The Broncos come into Reno with a gaudy 11-0 record (though just a 4-5-1 spread mark), but should leave with their first loss, as Nevada falls into 13 systems of mine that are 45-12, 34-12, 39-24, 93-42, 93-47, 53-13, 24-0, 30-7, 23-7, 23-1, 45-20, 61-23 and 14-0 ATS. Let's take a look at our 24-0 ATS system. This angle involves playing on certain home teams, as underdogs or favorites of 5 points or less, off back to back wins, that scored 40+ points in their previous two games who are matched up against a conference foe that is not off a SU/ATS loss. Last week, Nevada won (and covered) its 5th straight game with a 42-0 blowout win over Louisiana Tech, and that followed another 42-0 win
Big Al's 86% ATS Saturday College FB Winner on TV
At 6 pm, on Fox Sports Net, our selection is on the Arizona State Sun Devils plus the points over Arizona as I look for Arizona St to rebound off its 24-12 loss vs. UCLA last week, and upset Arizona, who has pulled off a stunning 3-game win streak. Certainly, one has to admire what the Arizona Wildcats have accomplished over their last 3 games. They're 3-0, and they were double digit underdogs in all 3 games. How good is this? Consider that never before in the last 26 years has a team won 3 straight games as dogs of 8 or more points. In their last 2 wins, turnovers were the key. Arizona did not turn the ball over at all vs. California two weeks ago, or against Oregon last week. But the Bears committed 3 turnovers, and Oregon committed an incredible 6 turnovers, which is why Arizona was able to pull those upsets. But the Wildcats have now been installed as a favorite vs. their rival, the ASU Sun Devils, and Arizona is perhaps college football's worst favorite. Since 1986, they're an awful 34-66 ATS, including 5-20 their last 25 (dating back to 1998). In this series, the dog is 18-8 ATS and the road team is 17-9 ATS. And if one team is off a loss, and the other is off a win, the team off the loss is 9-2 ATS. Finally, teams off 3 straight outright wins as underdogs are a poor 3-19 ATS vs. foes with a .727 (or worse) win percentage. Take Arizona State. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
posted by phantom
Nov. 25 2006 1:04am -
0 likes
Docs
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5 Unit Play. #90 Take Southern Cal -7 over Notre Dame (Saturday 8:00 pm ABC) The Trojans are riding high after the Ohio State win as they now feel that two more wins will get them into the BCS Title Game in Glendale, Arizona. The Irish have played a real soft schedule this year and have yet to record a quality win. Michigan destroyed them and since then QB Quinn has torn teams apart but they have still struggled to run the football. The team speed of the Trojans will pressure Quinn and thus his Heisman dream will die @ the Coliseum. Cal was a much better team last week then Notre Dame and the Trojans completely dominated them to earn the victory. USC has not lost a home game since 2001 and it is hard not to like them as a single digit favorite. USC heads to Pasadena with a chance to earn their BCS Title Game Bowl bid. USC 35, Notre Dame 21.
5 Unit Play. #94 Take Nevada-Reno +3 over Boise State (Saturday 4:00 pm ESPN) The game everyone has been waiting for in the WAC takes place this Saturday when Boise State puts their BCS Bowl Bid on the line to take on the Wolf Pack. The Broncos have been the class of the WAC for the last few years but have not been as dominate this season. They have had a new coach and struggled a little on the road. RB Johnson is banged up and will not be 100%. The Wolf Pack have won their last five games and none of them have been competitive. They have outscored their last three opponents 129-7. Nevada does everyone in the big six conferences a favor and knocks off Boise State, thus sending them elsewhere and not Glendale, AZ for the Fiesta Bowl. Nevada 35, Boise State 28.
4 Unit Play. #98 Take Hawaii -17 over Purdue (11:05 pm ESPN Gameplan) In a game that should feature a lot of scoring, two high powered offenses will do battle @ Aloha Stadium in the wee hours of the night. The Warriors have won eight straight games including three of them in the mainland. Only one of those victories came by single digits with the rest being big blowouts. This is a team that does not know how to slow down on offense and will continue to score points with the run and shoot style of June Jones. The Warriors have done well against Big Ten teams covering 71% of the time. Purdue struggles to stop teams on defense and that does not bode well when taking on the Warriors. The home crowd will make another blowout for Hawaii, as they will spoil the long flight home for Purdue. Hawaii 62, Purdue 38.
4 Unit Play. #54 Take Rice -3 over SMU (Saturday 3:00 pm) The talent between these teams is wide and thus expect the home team to win this battle of Texas by double-digits. Rice has won five straight games and has a better conference record @ 5-2 then SMU. The Owls have played a brutal schedule with 7 road games already completed in which they have lived to tell about it with a 6-5 record. They now finish the season with back-2-back home games and have already beaten a solid East Carolina team last week. Rice finishes the season out with a victory and then goes bowling. Rice 35, SMU 17.
__________________
posted by phantom
Nov. 25 2006 1:04am -
0 likes
WINNING POINTS
***BEST BET
FLORIDA over FLORIDA STATE* by 22
**PREFERRED
Arizona* over Arizona State by 14
posted by phantom
Nov. 25 2006 1:04am -
0 likes
Sports Reporters Best Bets
RECOMMENDED
WAKE FOREST over *MARYLAND by 8
RECOMMENDED
*MISSOURI over KANSAS by 16
BEST BET
GEORGIA TECH over *GEORGIA by 10
BEST BET
SOUTH CAROLINA over *CLEMSON by 7
MARC LAWRENCE
SATURDAY
W VIRGINIA over S Florida by 24
TENNESSEE over Kentucky by 21
Wake Forest over MARYLAND by 3
E Carolina over NC STATE by 3
RUTGERS over Syracuse by 10
N Carolina over DUKE by 10
C FLORIDA over Uab by 3
NEW MEXICO over San Diego St by 14
Oklahoma over OKLAHOMA ST by 4
RICE over Smu by 4
S MISSISSIPPI over Marshall by 13
Florida over FLORIDA ST by 7
Mississippi St over OLE MISS by 3
San Jose St over IDAHO by 7
Tcu over COLORADO ST by 8
Cincinnati over CONNECTICUT by 3
Louisville over PITTSBURGH by 13
Georgia Tech over GEORGIA by 3
VIRGINIA TECH over Virginia by 21
CLEMSON over S Carolina by 4
TEXAS EL PASO over Memphis by 14
------------------------------
5 BEST BET
USC over Notre Dame by 17
4 BEST BET
Arizona St over ARIZONA by 10
3 BEST BET
MISSOURI over Kansas by 16
posted by phantom
Nov. 25 2006 1:48am -
0 likes
POINTWISE
1 Byu 44-20
1 Hawaii 52-20
2 Virginia Tech
3 Nevada 34-20
3 Arizona 30-13
4 Oregon St 33-20
5 Tenn 38-10
5 Georgia Tech 27-17
Gameday
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Saturday
4* Hawaii
3* Notre Dame
__________________
Roberts:
YOUR 8* HI-ROLLER FOOTBALL SELECTION IS:
HAWAII -17 VS. PURDUE
The Boilermakers have clinched the 5th spot in the Big 10 bowl pecking order and has nothing to win or lose based on the outcome of this game so look for Joe Tiller's squad to treat this more like a vacation. Last week Purdue gave up 505 yards vs. butter fingered Indiana so how many will the Rainbow Warriors amass here with an offense that laid 586 yards on a good San Jose defense last week and is now averaging 60 points per game in it's last 6 outings. With Purdue traveling across 6 time zones and playing their 13th straight game without a bye week look for the statement seeking Warriors to wear them out in the pineapple patch.
YOUR 8* HI-ROLLER FOOTBALL SELECTION IS:
HAWAII RAINBOW WARRIORS -17
Roberts:
YOUR 8* MVP SELECTION IS:
NEVADA +3 VS. BOISE STATE
Broncos have been anything but stellar on the road this year escaping 2 weeks ago vs. San Jose 23-20 and earlier struggled against the likes of Wyoming, New Mexico St. and Idaho covering none of those games. On the other hand we have one of the hottest teams in the country in the Nevada Wolfpack who has outscored their last 3 opponents to the tune of 129-7 and has covered 9 straight games. Nevada has covered 15 of it's last 20 at home vs. opponents off a win and has covered 10 consecutive times at Reno. With the BCS collar tightening around Boise's neck and some 49-14 revenge stoking the fire we'll be howling with the Wolfpack in this one.
YOUR 8* MVP SELECTION IS:
NEVADA WOLFPACK +3
posted by phantom
Nov. 25 2006 1:48am -
0 likes
SPYLOCK:
Record ( 22-7-1 )
1* CLEMSON
1* NEW MEXICO STATE
1* SAN JOSE STATE
1* U S C
posted by phantom
Nov. 25 2006 1:49am -
0 likes
Wildcat (NY POST )
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last week
1-1
season 14-10-2 (PLus 4*)
309-249 lifetime 55.4%
East carolina +3
Rams - 5 1/2 (sunday)
posted by phantom
Nov. 25 2006 1:49am -
0 likes
Tim Sullivan
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WEST VIRGINIA (-201/2) over South Florida: Mountaineers might not be the best one-loss team in the nation, but they're certainly the most explosive.
RUTGERS (-131/2) over Syracuse: Danger zone going against the cover- crazy Orange, but the Knights need a bounce-back effort. And let's face it, this could be their last win.
Florida (-91/2) over FLORIDA STATE: Seminoles will show up, but the circus that has become their coaching staff, will too. Too much at stake for the Gators.
Virginia (+17) over VIRGINIA TECH: Al Groh has the young Cavaliers within a win of bowl eligibility. That seemed impossible two months ago.
South Carolina (+51/2) over CLEMSON: Good value with the Gamecocks, who are undefeated ATS this season on the road.
Kentucky (+19) over TENNESSEE: Too many points for the scrappy 'Cats, especially against a team that has covered just eight of its last 34 home games.
Oklahoma (-6) over OKLAHOMA STATE: Sooners want one of those BCS at-larges, as well. Bob Stoops' crew has covered four of five without Adrian Peterson.
Louisville (-111/2) over PITT: Tough to take a home team that has dropped four straight ATS, especially when facing the Cardinals.
GEORGIA (-2) over Georgia Tech: Bulldogs saved face with the upset at Auburn. Now, they face their instate rival on two weeks rest.
Wake Forest (+11/2) over MARYLAND: Terrapins were exposed against Boston College and are just 3-8 in their last 11 home games.
Notre Dame (+7) over USC: Huge revenge spot for the Irish, who will never forget "The Bush Push."
Last week: 7-8. Best Bets: 3-0. Season: 94-80-6. Best Bets: 20-16.
__________________
best bets..texas..lsu & ND
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posted by phantom
Nov. 25 2006 1:49am