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DETROIT 23 - Miami 20--A chance for a little revenge for Joey Harrington, who once TY defended the struggling Daunte Culpepper by advising fans to ease up, with Joey saying he knows what it's like to take the field and have 30,000 of your own fans scream that "you suck." The former Detroit No. 1 pick turned whipping boy catches his former team banged up on defense. However, DT Shaun Rogers eligible to return from suspension, and WR Roy Williams (54 recs.) is hot, learning to like off. coord. Mike Martz' precison-passing offense. TV--CBS
(02-MIAMI -8' 49-21...SR: Miami 6-2)
DALLAS 31 - Tampa Bay 13--Playoff-minded Dallas has lots of edges vs. Tampa Bay team rebuilding on offense (3 rookies, 3 one-year vets start) and deteriorating on defense (CB D. Kelly IR; DT McFarland traded; DE Rice, DT Wyms, MLB Quarles missing lots of playing time due to injuries). Cowboys, meanwhile, among top teams TY in both scoring and total defense. Bill Parcells & Jerry Jones have armed rapidly-developing, hot, young QB Romo with lots of supporting weapons, including T.O., who has 53 recs. & 7 TDs despite the accompanying turmoil and distractions. TV--FOX
(03-TAMPA BAY -6' 16-0...SR : Dallas 8-3)
*KANSAS CITY 19 - Denver 13--Payback for K.C., which had Damon Huard making his initial Chiefs' starting in first meeting, but still took Broncs to OT in Denver. Trent Green should improve in his second outing, and there's a good chance TE Tony Gonzalez (shoulder; out last week) will return to action. Bronco defense, pierced often last week by S.D., will have its hands full with Larry Johnson (1045 YR). TV--NFL NETWORK
(05-DEN. 9-K. City 6 (OT)...D.18-16 D.36/145 K.34/145 D.16/30/1/173 K.17/23/0/131 D.0 K.2)
(05-DEN. 30-K. City 10...D.24-18 D.37/221 K.22/74 K.23/44/0/211 D.13/18/0/137 D.0 K.1)
(05-K. CITY 31-Den. 27...K.24-19 K.37/168 D.29/131 D.18/29/2/257 K.16/23/2/253 K.1 D.0)
(06-DENVER -10' 9-6 (OT); 05-DENVER -3 30-10, K. CITY +1 31-27...SR: Kansas City 51-42)
SUNDAY, NOVEMBER 26
BUFFALO 17 - Jacksonville 16--"Under" might be the best way to look in this battle between defensively-rugged, but offensively-inconsistent teams, especially if the late-Nov. Buffalo weather turns dicey. Bills "under" 7 of 10 so far TY, and RB A. Thomas runs hard, but not very far. Explosive WR Lee Evans (two 83-yard TDs last week), likely blanketed by Jags' Rashean Mathis this week. But credit J.P. Losman (10 TDs, 7 ints.) for encouraging third-year advance.
(04-Jacksonville +3 13-10...SR: EVEN 3-3)
UNDER THE TOTAL NY JETS 16 - Houston 14--Houston coach Gary Kubiak has faced more than his share of adversity in his rookie season, seeing the front office "pass" on Reggie Bush, plus enduring the loss of both starting OTs and his best DT before the tenth game of the season. But Texans still a capable foe, with Kubiak cobbling together a ground game with Lundy-Gado-Dayne, QB Carr hitting nearly 70%, and WR Andre Johnson (74 recs.) having a career year. Jets have now played 3 straight "unders;" Houston "under" 5 of last 7.
(04-NY JETS -7 29-7...SR: NY Jets 2-0)
Pittsburgh 23 - BALTIMORE 20--Steelers four games behind AFC North division-leading Baltimore, suffering from Super Bowl "jinx," including Ben Roethlisberger's injuries, Ben's rash of TOs, and retirement rumors surrounding Bill Cowher. Be mindful, however, Pittsburgh is 9-4 as a dog the L2Ys. And although Steve McNair has boosted Ravens' aerial game, injuries have cost him lots of mobility, and his interceptions are up (9 vs. 10 TDs).
(05-PITT 20-Balt. 19...B.20-19 P.28/101 B.27/72 B.25/44/2/246 P.18/31/1/160 P.1 B.1)
(05-BALT. 16-Pitt 13 (OT)...B.18-17 B.38/104 P.25/70 P.21/38/1/212 B.21/36/1/137 B.1 P.1)
(05-PITTSBURGH -11 20-19, BALTIMORE +3' 16-13 (OT)...SR: Pittsburgh 14-7)
CLEVELAND 24 - Cincinnati 23--Browns were hammered on the ground for 160 yards in first meeting. But since that game, the Cleveland defense has steadied, and the young QB Frye-TE Winslow Jr.-WR Edwards trio is much improved on offense. It would be nice to have Reuben Droughns' (check status) power available vs. the Bengals' injured LBs. And Browns hoping sore hamstring of Chad Johnson (record 450 yds. receiving last 2 games) will linger. Side with rivalry dog.
(06-CIN. 34-Cle. 17...Ci.27-17 Ci.32/160 Cl.20/57 Ci.24/40/2/321 Cl.20/33/2/244 Ci.0 Cl.1)
(05-Cin. 27-CLE. 13...Ci.26-16 Ci.32/148 Cl.18/95 Cl.26/43/2/278 Ci.26/34/1/272 Ci.1 Cl.1)
(05-CIN. 23-Cle. 20...Ci.18-15 Ci.34/185 Cl.26/84 Cl.16/24/1/124 Ci.13/27/1/93 Ci.0 Cl.0)
(06-CIN. -10 34-17; 05-Cin. -3' 27-13, CIN. -12' 23-20...SR: Cleveland 34-32)
MINNESOTA 24 - Arizona 10--Denny Green returns to Minnesota, where he coached for 10 years with varying degrees of success. Will he be greeted Joey Harrington-style? Regardless, many of his hard-handed decisions with the Cards can be criticized, including the big bucks deal for Edgrerrin James (2.9 ypc) and the early move to rookie QB Matt Leinart (52%, 6 TDs, 7 ints.). Vikes sounder on defense (1st vs. the run; 6th overall); run better on offense with RB C. Taylor powering behind G Hutchinson.
(03-ARIZONA +7' 18-17...SR: Minnesota 10-9)
UNDER THE TOTAL ST. LOUIS 19 - San Francisco 17--St. Louis could not compensate for its OL injuries last week vs. Carolina, but should manage a SU win in this rematch. Yet, Ram defense still weak vs. the run (29th), and S.F. RB Frank Gore (212 YR last week) on a rampage (when he doesn't fumble), allowing Niners to milk the clock. S.F. (only one game behind Seattle in NFC West) considers itself in the race big time. 49er defense (has produced 3 straight "unders") improving enough to take points with enthused visitor.
(06-S. FRN. 20-St. Lou. 13...St.17-14 Sf.33/127 St.28/118 Sf.11/22/0/233 St.19/34/0/147 Sf.1 St.1)
(05-S. FRN. 28-St. Lou. 25...St.26-12 St.26/89 Sf.21/34 St.34/56/1/316 Sf.13/18/0/183 Sf.2 St.0)
(05-S. Frn. 24-ST. LOU. 20...St.20-15 Sf.29/217 St.21/44 St.33/41/2/345 Sf.12/16/0/104 Sf.0 St.0)
(06-S. FRAN. +3 20-13; 05-S. FRAN. +6' 28-25, S. Fran. +9' 24-20...SR: St. Louis 58-54-2)
ATLANTA 30 - New Orleans 20--N.O. captured the first meeting in Week Three before a raucous crowd welcoming the Saints back to the "Big Easy" after 2005's Katrina disaster. Now that the Superdome and the N.O. offense are restored, there is greater concern about the Saints defense (142 points last 5). After 3 straight losses, Falcs and Mick Vick under fire (even from Jim Mora, Sr.). Look for Vick & Atlanta offense to spark rally back above .500 mark. Check N.O.'s star rookie WR Colston (ankle injury last week).
(06-N. ORL. 23-Atl. 3...N.19-10 N.34/146 A.23/117 N.20/28/0/180 A.12/31/0/112 N.0 A.0)
(05-Atl. 34-N. ORL. 31...N.32-21 N.32/211 A.33/160 N.22/33/1/245 A.11/23/1/106 A.0 N.1)
(05-ATL. 36-N. Orl. 17...N.22-19 A.32/127 N.24/125 A.13/25/1/279 N.27/46/0/207 A.0 N.1)
(06-N. ORL. +3' 23-3; 05-Atlanta -5' 34-31, ATLANTA -10' 36-17...SR: Atlanta 44-31)
Carolina 23 - WASHINGTON 13--With Jason Campbell (19 of 34, 2 TDs, no ints.) starting and Clinton Portis done for the year, Redskins looking toward the future. However, the slowing Washington defense is near the bottom in sacks, last in interceptions (only 3!), and last in takeaways. Doubt Skins can put enough pressure on QB Delhomme to sufficiently inhibit his Steve Smith & Keyshawn Johnson connections vs. Washington DBs who get little help from front seven.
(03-CAROLINA -6 20-17...SR: Washington 6-1)
NEW ENGLAND 23 - Chicago 13--First game for the Patriots on their newly-installed FieldTurf, as HC Belichick & owner Craft want to put an end to the team's late-season games in the mud and slow track in Foxboro. The Pats are 3-0 SU and vs. the spread on artificial turf TY, and Tom Brady's performance at Minnesota (257 YP in the first H) with the team's versatile receiver group provides plenty of reason for FieldTurf optimism. "Paced" by QB Grossman, the Bears have 20 giveaways. Shade the QB edge.
(02-New England -4' 33-30...SR: New England 6-4)
*INDIANAPOLIS 24 - Philadelphia 17--Jeff Garcia (26 of 48 with a TD but for only 189 yards last week) now being asked to carry Philly QB burden following Donovan McNabb's torn ACL. Although Garcia (36 years old) past his prime, he is backed by a playoff-contending team in wild NFC race. So, even with Colts off a loss and Peyton Manning seeking to atone for 3 costly turnovers in Dallas, look for Eagles to rise up with focused effort.
(02-Indianapolis +9' 35-13...SR: Indianapolis 9-6)
NY Giants 24 - TENNESSEE 23--Banged-up Giants don't figure to be much healthier following their Monday nighter at physical Jacksonville. So Vince Young (3-4 SU, 5-2 vs. the spread as a starter; only 8 of 22 passing last week, but 49 YR) figures to be a problem for them. And lots of pressure being taken off the rookie QB by reborn RB Travis Henry (729 YR; 143 last week). Big DT Albert Haynesworth back to help control Tiki Barber (971 YR prior to Jacksonville game). Titans "over" 8 of 10 TY!
(02-Tennessee +3 32-29 (OT)...SR: NY Giants 5-3)
SAN DIEGO 34 - Oakland 10--Scary S.D. OLB Merriman still suspended, but that doesn't figure to be enough to help the Raiders and their lowly offense, last in yards, points, and passing after nine games. Chargers and their fans truly dislike Oakland. And with Philip Rivers (66%, 15 TDs, only 5 ints.) looking like a young Tom Brady and RB Tomlinson (22 TDs) hard on the trail of Shaun Alexander's TD record, it's hard not to take the favorite.
(06-S. Diego 27-OAK. 0...S.14-9 S.48/194 O.20/87 S.8/11/0/108 O.8/19/0/42 S.0 O.1)
(05-S. Diego 27-OAK. 14...S.22-19 S.41/190 O.13/39 O.24/48/1/271 S.15/21/0/156 S.0 O.0)
(05-S. DIEGO 34-Oak. 10...S.19-16 S.38/126 O.17/81 O.22/40/1/210 S.17/22/0/148 S.0 O.1)
(06-San Diego -3 27-0; 05-San Diego -2 27-14, SAN DIEGO -11 34-10...SR: Oakland 55-37-2)
MONDAY, NOVEMBER 27
*SEATTLE 34 - Green Bay 13--Packers first visit to the Emerald City since 1996, the season of G.B.'s Super Bowl victory. Lots of changes since then, including the HC changing sides, a marvelous new stadium, and an NFC title for Seattle. Shaun Alexander (17 for 37 YR) returned last week, while status of dueling QBs Hasselbeck (knee) & Favre (elbow) not certain at this writing. But even if it's Seneca Wallace vs. Favre, will stick with the home team, rabid crowd, mature defense, and solid coach Holmgren vs. his former QB and his former QB coach (G.B.'s current HC McCarthy). CABLE TV--ESPN
(05-G. BAY 23-Sea. 17...G.21-17 S.30/98 G.33/68 G.21/37/1/246 S.15/25/1/147 G.2 S.1)
(05-GREEN BAY -5 23-17...SR: Green Bay 7-4)
MONDAY NIGHT HISTORY
Green Bay and Seattle on Monday Night
Green Bay is 14-17 straight-up and 17-13-1 vs. the pointspread on the road on Monday Night Football;
10-7-1 straight-up and 9-9 vs. the pointspread at home on Monday Night Football.
Seattle is 10-5 straight-up and 10-4-1 vs. the pointspread at home on Monday Night Football;
4-3 straight-up and 4-3 vs. the pointspread on the road on Monday Night Football.
HEAD-TO-HEAD MEETINGS SINCE 2003 (not necessarily Mon. night)
2005 Reg. Seas.: Green Bay -5 beat Seattle 23-17 at Green Bay
2003 NFC Playoffs.: Green Bay -7½ beat Seattle 33-27 in OT at Green Bay
2003 Reg. Seas.: Green Bay -1½ beat Seattle 35-13 at Green Bay
NFL KEY RELEASES
SAN DIEGO by 24 over Oakland
SEATTLE by 21 over Green Bay
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
UNDER THE TOTAL in the Houston-NY Jets game
UNDER THE TOTAL in the San Francisco-St. Louis game
posted by phantom
Nov. 21 2006 1:45pm -
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Sports Reporters Best Bets
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RECOMMENDED
*NEW YORK JETS over HOUSTON by 14
The Jets blew a golden opportunity against the Bears, with Chad Pennington throwing
two costly interceptions that could have changed the outcome of the game. Eric Mangini
also had another “too-cuteâ€
posted by phantom
Nov. 22 2006 1:43pm -
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Sports Reporters Nfl
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2
THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 23
MIAMI over *DETROIT by 2
Remember the mantra: “The Lions will just lose in different ways this season.â€
posted by phantom
Nov. 22 2006 1:44pm -
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NFL
Thursday, November 23rd, 2006
Cooked Goose on Turkey Day
@Chiefs (pk) over Broncos
Shanahan has to be pulling his hair out over Jake
Plummer. Jake the Snake is having a very mediocre
year for the Broncos. He’s completing only 54.3%
of his passes, has fewer TD passes (10) than
interceptions (11), and his QB rating is a microscopic
69.7. By all reports, Shanahan prizes rookie Jay
Cutler, but there’s no way he’ll put Cutler in this spot
on a short week in front of a notoriously wild crowd
against their rivals in Kansas City.
Chiefs struggled against a Raiders team that’s
playing better ball, but that may have been as much
of a lookahead as anything else. Trent Green is
back in the lineup and you have to think he was
being eased into things and this is the game he was
preparing for. While the Chiefs were largely going
through the motions, in a game that was over
before 3PM local time, the Broncos played in a
disappointing late night game that put them through
the wringer and have to travel in on this short week.
It is almost as though Kansas City will enjoy an
extra day of rest. Chiefs have won 6 of 7 at this site
from the Broncos, including 5-0-1 against the spread
when not favored by 3 or more. Chiefs by 6.
Sunday, November 26, 2006
Niners (+6) over @Rams
The Rams offensive line is a mess right now and
clearly is not a deep position for St. Louis. When a
quarterback as skilled as Marc Bulger averages a
puny 2.0 yards per pass attempt in a ballgame and
leads a team to a microscopic 111 yards of offense
there is obviously trouble. The Panthers got to
Bulger for 7 sacks (including a safety) and pressured
him too many times to count. Now obviously the
Niners defensive front is not the Panthers DL, but
they have a lot of young talent on this unit. Mike
Nolan is playing a lot of people in the defensive
rotation, letting them know that there is plenty of
competition for playing time on that side of the ball.
The results have been impressive, as a team that
had one of the leagues worst defenses has
developed into a very formidable unit, allowing only
10 points per game and 264 yards per game in the
last 3 contests, holding teams to 4.4 yards per play
and making them go over 26 yards to score a point.
Heading home off an embarrassing defeat certainly
isn’t the worst situation in the world to be in for the
Rams, but this is a substantial for a team whose
feature running back is 2nd in the league in rushing
5
and has beat of a tight end Vernon Davis returning
from injury issues. Lots of flaws on the Rams right
now, including allowing 5.8 yards per play
defensively while permitting opponents to convert
over 45% of their first downs, both among the
league’s worst. Take the points with San Francisco.
49ers by 1.
Titanic Effort
@Titans (+3½) over Giants
The Titans are improving and working hard. Jeff
Fisher is an outstanding coach and he and his staff
are doing an excellent job. Offensive coordinator
Norm Chow has designed a run-first offense
specifically for Vince Young and the results have
been fairly impressive. Nobody expected anything
out of Tennessee and the Titans are competitive
week in and week out. The running game obviously
is the best way for rookie Young to avoid mistakes
and averaging 166 yards rushing per game in the
last 6 contests is what is helping the Titans cover
pointspreads. Albert Haynesworth actually played
pretty well upon his return from the suspended list,
and the Titans D-line should benefit from some of
the injuries on the Giants offensive front.
The Giants are gashed by injuries on the defensive
side of the ball as well, of course, and are beat up to
the extent that asking them to lay points on the
road is a stretch. The Titans play hard and have
some positive attributes, and probably would have
beaten the Eagles Sunday even without the injury to
Donovan McNabb. This is the kind of game that
would be a nice resume builder for them. Titans
by 3.
Monday, November 27th, 2006
Pack Snaps Back
Packers (+) over @Seahawks
Looks like the Seahawks will have Hasselbeck back
in this one, and Alexander came back in the loss to
the Niners (17 attempts for 37 yards). No surprise if
Hasselbeck is as rusty as Alexander. This team
needs a spark. They have failed to cover 6 of their
last 7 games and seem to lack continuity and
togetherness. Although the offense has lost the
critical personnel, if you take away the shutout win
over the Raiders at home on Monday night the
Seahawks are allowing 29 points per game in their
last 8 games. That’s half a season with a single
shutout and 29 point per game in the rest of the
contests.
Favre’s elbow injury doesn’t appear to be serious
and reports say he could have gone back into a
close game on Sunday. The 35-0 humiliation at the
hands of the Patriots insures tremendous focus this
week from a team that was completely embarrassed
in the locker room following that loss. This is a
hard-trying outfit and other than Sunday Favre has
been playing pretty well, trading motivation and
inspiration back and forth with his young, eager
teammates. See the Packers coming up relatively
big in this spot. Seahawks by only 3.
Dave Fobare’s NFL Tech Play of the Week
@Patriots (-3, -120) over Bears
This game does mark a rare occurrence in NFL play;
in only three previous regular season games since
1983 have both teams entered off shutout wins. The
Pats pummeled Green Bay 35-0, while the Bears
blanked the Jets 10-0. There really isn't much to go
on for future guidance, but for what its worth the
last time this happened was back in 2003 when
these same Patriots hosted Jacksonville, and the
Pats won 27-13 as favorites of –6½.
Just glancing over the stats it is surprising to see the
Bears getting outrushed on a per carry basis, 4.1 to
3.5. To some extent that is deceiving as the defense
has often laid back after getting a big lead; willing to
give up a few yards on the ground while
concentrating on getting the big plays – sacks and
interceptions – that allow them to bury their
opponents further. Still, the Bears' rushing attack
has slowly withered in recent weeks. And forcing an
increasingly mistake prone Rex Grossman (8 picks in
the last 5 games) to deliver against a Pats defense
that has allowed more than 17 points only once all
season is not a recipe for success.
The best tech on the Patriots here involves Chicago's
recent schedule. The Bears are in the final game of
a three game road trip, with wins over both of
Gotham's teams - first the Giants then the Jets.
Three game NFL road trips are grueling, even if it
seems tame compared to what NBA or MLB teams
go thru. The Bears apply to a negative 35-70 ATS
scheduling system based on their road trip. That
record gets much worse if at the end of the trip the
weary traveler must face an elite club while keeping
one eye on a divisional matchup the next week, as
the Bears host Minnesota. Under these
circumstances the road team has covered just 11 of
45 games, with a negative cover margin over 7
points per game.
New England has thrived at home against the
league's better teams, going 16-6 ATS since 2002
when hosting a winning opponent. Rex Grossman is
a nice quarterback, but he is no Peyton Manning and
over the last 5 weeks it has become apparent just
how much the Chicago D is carrying this club. New
England owns the matchups on the ground, and the
opportunity to take Tom Brady over Rex Grossman
laying a fair number is too good to pass up. Take
New England minus the small number.
Final Game Revenge: In the final game of the regular season for both teams of an intra-state matchup,
play road dogs up to +7 that lost last year's meeting.
Pointspread Record Since 1991: 24-7 ATS (77.4%)
This week’s application: Bowling Green, East Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia Tech
Value Reversal: Play on any double-digit underdog in the NFL that was a double-digit favorite in the
previous game.
Pointspread Record since 1991: 7-2 (78%)
This week’s application: Philadelphia Eagles
posted by phantom
Nov. 22 2006 1:45pm -
0 likes
NFL
Thursday
Long Sheet
MIAMI (4 - 6) at DETROIT (2 -
- 11/23/2006, 12:30 PM Top Trends for this game.
DETROIT is 1-7 ATS (-6.7 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest this season.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
TAMPA BAY (3 - 7) at DALLAS (6 - 4) - 11/23/2006, 4:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DALLAS is 55-36 ATS (+15.4 Units) in home games against conference opponents since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
DENVER (7 - 3) at KANSAS CITY (6 - 4) - 11/23/2006, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DENVER is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in road games when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
KANSAS CITY is 3-2 against the spread versus DENVER over the last 3 seasons
DENVER is 3-2 straight up against KANSAS CITY over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
Short Sheet
Thursday, November 23rd
Miami at Detroit, 12:30 EST CBS
Miami: 10-23 ATS off BB home games
Detroit: 13-4 Over off 3+ Unders
Tampa Bay at Dallas, 4:15 EST FOX
Tampa Bay: 8-1 Under away off an ATS loss
Dallas: 23-6 ATS at home after winning 3 of their last 4 games
(TC) Denver at Kansas City, 8:00 EST NFL
Denver: 19-6 ATS off a home loss
Kansas City: 13-5 Under at home vs. conference opponents
** (TC) Denotes Time Change
posted by phantom
Nov. 22 2006 1:52pm