NFL WEEK 11
oh and btw.....i HATE the NFL..................... 
posted by phantom
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Pointwise The lower the number the higher the play.
1 Nevada 48-14
1 Penn St48-14
2 Texas Tech 44-24
3 Navy 51-13
3 Minnesota 34-20
4 Missouri 38-13
5 West Virginia 41-17
5 BYU 48-14
2 Pats 34-20
3 Minn 19-16
4 Indy 26-23
4 Phil 37-17
5 Atl 23-22
posted by phantom
Nov. 14 2006 3:09pm -
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SUNDAY, NOVEMBER 19 ( THE GOLDSHEET)
KANSAS CITY 26 - Oakland 6--It's against the odds to project a TD these days from the Raiders, whose offense has been unable to "dent the dish" in 5 of 9 games TY. Chefs playing more conscientious defense TY under former NFL DB Herm Edwards. Even if Trent Green cleared for this game, it will be difficult for Edwards to trust the well-liked QB with the start after so many weeks and with Huard (11 TDs, only 1 int.) playing well most weeks. Larry Johnson (891 YR) controls game.
(05-K. City 23-OAK. 17...K.17-16 K.36/125 O.19/71 O.21/35/0/256 K.18/28/0/229 K.1 O.2)
(05-K. CITY 27-Oak. 23...O.21-18 K.24/114 O.26/101 K.22/35/0/207 O.21/40/1/162 K.1 O.0)
(05-Kansas City -1 23-17, KANSAS CITY -4 27-23...SR: Kansas City 49-43-2)
Indianapolis 27 - DALLAS 17--Even with its defense injured and vulnerable to the run (still ranked vs. rush last prior Week Ten), Indy has overcome every required obstacle to win at NYG, at Denver, and at New England. Dallas pass rush lacks top-notch quickness vs. Peyton Manning (18 TDs, 3 ints.), and coverage far from excellent in secondary. Denver tried ball-control approach (227 YR) and couldn't hold Manning at the end, and N.E. gave the ball away 5 times. Romo outclassed in first home start. (02-INDIANAPOLIS -7 20-3...SR: Dallas 7-6)
NEW ORLEANS 31 - Cincinnati 24--Bickering Bengals can't believe their misfortune in 2006, beginning with Carson Palmer's knee injury in January, to the suspension of MLB O. Thomas, to the injuries of OLB Pollack, C Braham, & LT Levi Jones. Now, CB Deltha O'Neal (10 ints. LY; check status) caught a shoulder injury last week. Saints not 100% either, but Drew Brees (398 YP last week) has offense cooking. (02-CINCINNATI +7 20-13...SR: EVEN 5-5)
Pittsburgh 23 - CLEVELAND 10--Pittsburgh (3-6) has underachieved. But at least the champs avoided their recent killer TOs in 38-31 victory over New Orleans, and they remember their fast finish to wildcard spot LY. Cleveland youngsters Charlie Frye (2 wins last 3 starts), TE "KW II" (56 recs.), and WR Braylon Edwards (3 TDC) "arriving" fast. But Frye still being battered (34 sacks) behind leaky OL. Steelers "under" 3 of 4 road games TY; have covered last 5 in series.
(05-PITT 34-Cle. 21...P.25-16 P.41/159 C.19/61 C.17/34/1/242 P.18/27/0/223 P.0 C.1)
(05-Pitt 41-CLE. 0...P.20-12 P.35/209 C.19/55 P.14/21/0/248 C.20/39/0/123 P.1 C.1)
(05-PITTSBURGH -7' 34-21, Pittsburgh -7 41-0...SR: Cleveland 55-53)
PHILADELPHIA 27 - Tennessee 20--Eagles romped to surprisingly easy win over the fading Redskins last week, but "presumptive winner" Philly might find the cover actually tougher to get vs. upstart Tennessee, now 4-1 vs. spread its last 5 behind Vince Young. Give lots of credit to rejuvenated RB Travis Henry, who has 586 YR in just 6 starts. Titans, last in defense, are 7-2 "over" TY.
(02-TENNESSEE -1 27-24...SR: Philadelphia 6-2)
BALTIMORE 23 - Atlanta 13--Ray Lewis was out with injury in Raven-Falcon meeting in Atlanta in 2002, and he was sidelined with a back injury last week. Still, Atlanta currently thin in the OL and at DB, two areas Baltimore can exploit with its rugged front seven and improving receiver group (Clayton/Mason WR duo 15 recs. last week). Ravens more assertive these days (3-0 SU) since HC Brian Billick has been calling the plays instead of Jim Fassel. Vick 6 giveaways last two games!
(02-ATLANTA -7' 20-17...SR: EVEN 1-1)
CAROLINA 23 - St. Louis 20--Don't trust work-in-progress Rams' defense enough to forecast the upset, but will still side with their potent, ball-security conscious offense (only 2 ints. TY) to stay within reach of Panthers. Job becomes tougher with the absence of Pro Bowl LT Orlando Pace (lost for season). However, Carolina was 0-4-1 as a favorite TY prior to its Monday nighter vs. Tampa Bay. Hard-running Steve Jackson (691 YR) should benefit from the absence of MLB Dan Morgan in the Panther defense. (04-CAROLINA -7 20-7...SR: Carolina 9-7)
HOUSTON 22 - Buffalo 13--For the first time in its history, Houston takes a two-game home winning streak into a contest at Reliant Stadium. And despite its injuries and dubious decision to "pass" on Reggie Bush, Texans getting help from some youngsters, most notably rookies LB DeMeco Ryans (79 tackles), DE Mario Williams (4½ sacks), TE Owen Daniels (25 recs.) and young DBs D. Robinson, Earl, C.C. Brown & Faggins. Bills (no offensive TDs last week) missing extra-dimension RB McGahee.
(05-BUF. 22-Hou. 7...B.20-12 B.36/152 H.23/95 B.17/28/0/164 H.9/21/3/25 B.0 H.2)
(05-BUFFALO -5' 22-7...SR: Buffalo 2-1)
New England 27 - GREEN BAY 17--The rain and mud in Foxboro last week played a role in helping N.E. suffer its first back-to-back defeat in 4 years last week. But Pats now just one game ahead in the AFC East, and their defense has held all foes except Indy to 17 points or fewer. Packers playing hard for new HC McCarthy & QB Favre, but their defense vulnerable to well-schooled attacks. (02-G. Bay +5' 28-10...SR: Green Bay 5-3)
TAMPA BAY 24 - Washington 16--Rematch of LY's Wildcard Round playoff match, which Redskins won despite gaining only 100 yards! T.B. won the earlier regular-season shootout after Washington roughed the kicker on PAT kick in closing minute, with Jon Gruden then rolling the dice and seeing Mike Alstott convert a plunge for the winning points. Redskin RB Portis has a broken hand, while QB Brunell losing his teammates' confidence.
(05-T. BAY 36-Was. 35...W.23-19 W.33/185 T.27/61 T.15/29/0/279 W.23/35/2/204 T.1 W.1)
(05-Was. 17-T. BAY 10...T.17-9 W.31/95 T.25/75 T.25/38/2/168 W.7/16/1/25 W.0 T.1)
(05-TAMPA BAY +1 36-35, Washington +2' 17-10 (NFC Playoffs)...SR: Washington 8-7)
Chicago 24 - NY JETS 21--Second game on this field for Chicago in as many weeks after their win over the battered G-Men Sunday night. As impressive as that was, Bears have been nothing but erratic on the road TY, nearly losing at both Minny and Arizona. Jets' rebuilding far from complete, but quick decisions of QB Pennington and improved ground game of Barlow/Washington enough to get the "hang in there." Each has played 7 "overs" TY. (02-CHICAGO +6' 20-13...SR: Chicago 5-3)
Minnesota 16 - MIAMI 13--With Minnesota's limited offense and sound defense, can envision Vikes going "under" for 4th time in 5 road games. And don't mind siding with Minny in what figures to be more a battle of FGs than TDs. RBs Chester Taylor (783 YR) & Ronnie Brown (710) about a "wash," and both QBs B. Johnson & Harrington unspectacular. Dolphins only 3-16 last 19 as home favorite!
(02-MINN +3 20-17...SR: Miami 5-4)
ARIZONA 27 - Detroit 20--Will Arizona finally be able to run the ball with Detroit's two best DLmen (DT Shaun Rogers suspended; DE James Hall injured) out? One thing that appears certain is that Jon Kitna is operating off. coord. Mike Martz' passing game smartly, and that Roy Williams (49 recs.) & Mike Furrey (43) providing consistent targets. But Larry Fitzgerald back for Cards, and Lions 2-10 SU away last 1+Ys.
(05-DET. 29-Ariz. 21...D.22-21 D.32/157 A.16/38 A.29/45/0/359 D.22/32/0/226 D.0 A.1)
(05-DETROIT -4 29-21...SR: Detroit 23-8)
Seattle 24 - SAN FRANCISCO 17--Will Matt Hasselbeck & Shaun Alexander return for Seattle? We'll have to wait to know for sure. Same for S.F.'s emerging RB Gore (concussion last week; check status). Julian Peterson, not re-signed by S.F. TY partly due to previous injuries, appears to have regained his former quickness, posting 8 sacks for Seahawks! Seattle selection more tenuous if Hasselbeck and/or Alexander not back.
(05-Sea. 27-S. FRAN. 25...Se.21-17 Se.34/145 Sf.26/110 Se.19/31/0/228 Sf.18/29/0/226 Se.0 Sf.1)
(05-SEA. 41-S. Fran. 3...Se.31-8 Se.40/185 Sf.21/62 Se.24/30/1/253 Sf.9/22/1/51 Se.0 Sf.1)
(05-Seattle -12' 27-25, SEATTLE -16 41-3...SR: Seattle 8-6)
OVER THE TOTAL *DENVER 30 - San Diego 20--Chargers (allowed 41 points) found out last week at Cincy that their defense not so intimidating without the suspended Shawne Merriman. So defensive edge in this one goes to Broncos, who are 4-0-2 vs. spread last 6 meetings in Colorado vs. S.D. Jake Plummer (3 ints.) tried to give the game away last week in Oakland. But he's now connecting for more big plays with former G.B. WR Javon Walker. Chargers "over" five straight!
(05-DEN. 20-S. Diego 17...D.21-15 D.26/98 S.24/79 D.23/37/1/233 S.15/23/1/134 D.1 S.1)
(05-Den. 23-S. DIEGO 7...D.17-15 D.40/157 S.20/91 S.20/36/1/145 D.10/22/0/84 D.0 S.1)
(05-DENVER -3 20-17, Denver +10' 23-7...SR: Denver 52-39-1)
MONDAY, NOVEMBER 20
*JACKSONVILLE 23 - NY Giants 17--Few would argue that the Giants have not faced the toughest schedule so far (including Indy, Philly, Seattle, Washington, Atlanta, Dallas, Chicago), and it's taken its toll. Are they now too beat up to trade blows with one of the most physical teams in the NFL? After Jags had an ugly home loss to Houston? Yes, QB Garrard tossed 4 ints. But Giants played the Bears with 5 N.Y. starters out, then lost key LT Petitgout to a broken leg! Side with home team, whose QB can only be better than last week. CABLE TV--ESPN (02-NY GIANTS -3 24-17...SR: NY Giants 2-1)
MONDAY NIGHT HISTORY
NY Giants and Jacksonville on Monday Night
NY Giants are 10-21-1 SU and 11-20-1 vs. the spread on the road on MNF;
7-8 SU and 7-8 vs. the spread at home on MNF.
Jacksonville is 5-1 SU and 4-2 vs. the spread at home on MNF;
1-2 SU and 1-2 vs. the spread on the road on MNF.
NFL KEY RELEASES
KANSAS CITY over Oakland by 20
INDIANAPOLIS over Dallas by 10
PITTSBURGH over Cleveland by 13
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
OVER THE TOTAL in the San Diego-Denver game
posted by phantom
Nov. 14 2006 3:11pm -
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CKO GOLD SHEET
11 *FLORIDA ST. over Western Michigan
Late Score Forecast:
*FLORIDA ST. 38 - Western Michigan 10
For handicappers, it's been a good season to zig and zag with Florida State.
While the young Seminoles are clearly down from their previous lofty
standards, proud FSU has proven it still has the wherewithal to respond to
disappointing defeats by hammering lesser foes. A 55-7 home win over Rice
followed home loss to Clemson. A 27-point win at Duke was the response to a
setback at N.C. State. And Noles laid a 33-0 whitewash on Virginia after
recent defeat at Maryland. Look for pattern to continue this week, as Bobby
Bowden's troops are coming off humbling 30-0 home loss to Wake. Seminoles
need one more win to be bowl eligible. Pedestrian Western Michigan offense
(20 points or fewer in 6 of 10 games) won't do much damage against athletic
FSU defense. And tall, rangy Nole WRs will make enough plays to get
desperate host a comfy win.
10 MARYLAND over *Boston College
Late Score Forecast:
MARYLAND 22 - *Boston College 17
Maryland is one of the hottest teams in the country, with 5 straight wins
including victories over Florida State, Clemson and Miami-Florida. Steady
defense powered by soph LB Erin Henderson & jr. LB Wesley Jefferson (both
avg. 9 tackles per game) has led the way, as the Terps have yielded just 69
points in their last 4 games. Improvement of QB Sam Hollenbach has been
remarkable in the last month. Hollenback has completed 67% of his passes and
thrown 7 TD passes and just 1 int. in the last 4 games. Frosh WR Darrius
Heyward-Bey started slowly, but has 33 catches in the last 8 games and 4
scores in the last 3. Maryland's special teams are solid as well, as PK Dan
Ennis has made 15 of 19 FGs this season and sr. Josh Wilson ranks 8th in the
country in kickoff returns, while P Adam Podlesh is 13th at 44 ypp. Maryland
has a legitimate shot at a berth in the ACC title game.
10 RUTGERS over *Cincinnati
Late Score Forecast:
RUTGERS 31 - *Cincinnati 14
Long-time Big East scouts tell us not be concerned at all about any letdown
or excessive celebration following Rutgers rousing 28-25 come-back victory
vs. Louisville. Chemistry-rich Scarlet Knights-who've leapfrogged to No. 6
in the BCS-firmly believe they have a shot at the national championship game.
Rutgers evolving QB Teel (189 YP vs. Cards, 1 TDP) demonstrated he can hit
timely passes and take pressure off tackle-breaking RB Rice (1334 YR) &
versatile, bruising FB Leonard week ago. That's very bad news for a smallish
Cincy defense that was overwhelmed by a physical WV attack (303 YR) in
misleading 42-24 loss in Morgantown (Bearcats scored 2 late, "garbage" TDs).
On other hand, Cincy's run-oriented, low-risk offense only gets "low-reward"
vs. fast, deep, athletic Scarlet Knight stop unit (11 ppg, 2.9 ypc) that
incredibly skunked L'Ville's powerful attack in 2nd H! And, note, Schiano's
squad has won by 7 or more in 15 of past 18 wins.
10 UCLA over *Arizona State
Late Score Forecast:
UCLA 27 - *Arizona State 19
Arizona State became bowl eligible last week with a blowout home win over
injury-riddled Washington State. But Pac-10 scouts much more impressed with
UCLA's blue-collar 25-7 victory over hot Oregon State. The Bruin defense is
vastly improved TY under highly-regarded new coordinator DeWayne Walker,
allowing fewer than 100 ypg rushing on less than 3 ypc (down from 233 on 5.4
in 2005!). Soph QB Patrick Cowan has steadily improved since taking over for
injured Ben Olson. UCLA has an emerging WR in jr. Marcus Everett (2 TDC last
week), solid ground support with tough-to-tackle jr. Chris Markey, and a
dead-eye PK in sr. Justin Medlock (nation-leading 23 FGs) to convert drives
that fall short of end zone into points. With Bruins needing one more win to
be eligible for a fifth straight postseason bid, small upset likely.
10*N.Y. JETS over Chicago
Late Score Forecast:
*N.Y. JETS 27 - Chicago 23
(Sunday, November 19)
Points worth taking, especially with spread edging up after Bears victimized
N.Y. Giant team with half a dozen starters out. Jets have slowly, steadily
developed under rookie HC Mangini, who learned so well under Bill Belichick
that he beat his mentor (and now former friend) in just their second meeting.
But the real keys are N.Y.'s advances since the start of the season. Heady,
quick-releasing QB Chad Pennington has stayed healthy (knock on wood) after
two years of injuries. Premium rookie OLmen LT D. Ferguson & C Mangold are
now more than holding their own. Rookie RB Leon Washington & retread Kevan
Barlow have combined for 759 YR and are now providing balance to the offense.
Quick WRs Coles & Cotchery have 92 catches and work well with Pennington.
And the defense, as demonstrated last week at Foxboro, now taking to
Mangini's schemes. Note Chicago only 2-2 vs. spread on road, with 13
giveaways.
TOTALS: OVER (48) in Indianapolis-Dallas game-Indy hurting in secondary;
Dallas pass rush not enough to slow Manning & his receivers. UNDER (36.5) in
Buffalo-Houston game-Bills' offense greatly hampered without McGahee; rookie
LB DeMeco Ryans and young DBs giving up far fewer big plays with Texans.
HONORABLE MENTION (Nine-Rated Games): DUKE (+27) at Georgia Tech-Young Blue
Devils have stabilized; Coastal champ Yellow Jackets need to stay healthy
with visit to hated Georgia, then huge ACC title game on deck! SMU (+6.5)
vs. Tulsa-Last chance at home for 5-5 SMU to become bowl eligible; Mustangs
on the road at streaking Rice next week. BYU (-26) vs. New
Mexico-Pointspread is big, but so is QB edge for Cougars; BYU has outscored
MWC foes 144-16 at the half. MARSHALL (-2.5) vs. Utep-Huge rush edge for
Thundering Herd with "thundering" RB Bradshaw (1152 YR); insertion of sr. QB
Skinner balancing Marshall offense. HOUSTON (-2.5) vs. Buffalo-Bills managed
only 162 yards of total offense at Indy; Gary Kubiak suddenly has hard-nosed
Texans seeking their third straight home win!
posted by phantom
Nov. 14 2006 3:11pm -
0 likes
SUNSHINE FORECAST
NFL Computer Predictions
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Sunday, November 19, 2006
Oakland Raiders (+11½) at Kansas City Chiefs
Power Rating Projection:
Kansas City Chiefs 28 Oakland Raiders 12
Statistical Projections
Oakland Raiders 13
Rushing Yards: 100
Passing Yards: 170
Turnovers: 3 Kansas City Chiefs 25
Rushing Yards: 125
Passing Yards: 244
Turnovers: 1
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Kansas City Chiefs 26 Oakland Raiders 10
Historical trend: Take Oakland Raiders ( Domination by visiting team, 11-4-1, 73.3% )
Indianapolis Colts (-3) at Dallas Cowboys
Power Rating Projection:
Indianapolis Colts 24 Dallas Cowboys 22
Statistical Projections
Indianapolis Colts 27
Rushing Yards: 84
Passing Yards: 288
Turnovers: 1 Dallas Cowboys 26
Rushing Yards: 156
Passing Yards: 234
Turnovers: 2
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Indianapolis Colts 28 Dallas Cowboys 27
Cincinnati Bengals (+3) at New Orleans Saints
Power Rating Projection:
Cincinnati Bengals 21 New Orleans Saints 19
Statistical Projections
Cincinnati Bengals 27
Rushing Yards: 123
Passing Yards: 252
Turnovers: 1 New Orleans Saints 27
Rushing Yards: 99
Passing Yards: 303
Turnovers: 2
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Cincinnati Bengals 18 New Orleans Saints 17
Pittsburgh Steelers (-3) at Cleveland Browns
Power Rating Projection:
Pittsburgh Steelers 17 Cleveland Browns 15
Statistical Projections
Pittsburgh Steelers 22
Rushing Yards: 145
Passing Yards: 221
Turnovers: 2 Cleveland Browns 16
Rushing Yards: 73
Passing Yards: 189
Turnovers: 2
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Pittsburgh Steelers 12 Cleveland Browns 9
Tennessee Titans (+13) at Philadelphia Eagles
Power Rating Projection:
Philadelphia Eagles 24 Tennessee Titans 13
Statistical Projections
Tennessee Titans 16
Rushing Yards: 103
Passing Yards: 159
Turnovers: 2 Philadelphia Eagles 27
Rushing Yards: 134
Passing Yards: 268
Turnovers: 2
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Philadelphia Eagles 19 Tennessee Titans 7
Atlanta Falcons (+6) at Baltimore Ravens
Power Rating Projection:
Baltimore Ravens 23 Atlanta Falcons 14
Statistical Projections
Atlanta Falcons 15
Rushing Yards: 145
Passing Yards: 182
Turnovers: 3 Baltimore Ravens 22
Rushing Yards: 99
Passing Yards: 222
Turnovers: 2
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Baltimore Ravens 17 Atlanta Falcons 9
St Louis Rams (+6½) at Carolina Panthers
Power Rating Projection:
Carolina Panthers 20 St Louis Rams 16
Statistical Projections
St Louis Rams 19
Rushing Yards: 94
Passing Yards: 248
Turnovers: 1 Carolina Panthers 23
Rushing Yards: 126
Passing Yards: 241
Turnovers: 2
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Carolina Panthers 14 St Louis Rams 10
Buffalo Bills (+1) at Houston Texans
Power Rating Projection:
Houston Texans 23 Buffalo Bills 22
Statistical Projections
Buffalo Bills 20
Rushing Yards: 112
Passing Yards: 189
Turnovers: 1 Houston Texans 21
Rushing Yards: 106
Passing Yards: 226
Turnovers: 1
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Buffalo Bills 31 Houston Texans 19
Buffalo Bills (1 star)
Angle: After Winning as Double Digit Dog
Go against Houston Texans ( Played previous game on the road, Playing this week at home, 6-14-1, 30.0% )
New England Patriots(-6) at Green Bay Packers
Power Rating Projection:
New England Patriots 26 Green Bay Packers 16
Statistical Projections
New England Patriots 26
Rushing Yards: 124
Passing Yards: 254
Turnovers: 1 Green Bay Packers 17
Rushing Yards: 83
Passing Yards: 273
Turnovers: 2
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
New England Patriots 26 Green Bay Packers 16
Washington Redskins (+3) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Power Rating Projection:
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 21 Washington Redskins 20
Statistical Projections
Washington Redskins 21
Rushing Yards: 133
Passing Yards: 197
Turnovers: 1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 17
Rushing Yards: 83
Passing Yards: 198
Turnovers: 1
** Statistical edge to Washington Redskins
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 18 Washington Redskins 17
Chicago Bears (-6) at New York Jets
Power Rating Projection:
Chicago Bears 25 New York Jets 20
Statistical Projections
Chicago Bears 25
Rushing Yards: 131
Passing Yards: 213
Turnovers: 2 New York Jets 15
Rushing Yards: 118
Passing Yards: 156
Turnovers: 3
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Chicago Bears 34 New York Jets 17
Chicago Bears (1 star)
Angle: After Winning as Double Digit Dog
Go against New York Jets ( Played previous game on the road, Playing this week at home, 6-14-1, 30.0% )
Minnesota Vikings (+4) at Miami Dolphins
Power Rating Projection:
Miami Dolphins 19 Minnesota Vikings 18
Statistical Projections
Minnesota Vikings 17
Rushing Yards: 92
Passing Yards: 202
Turnovers: 2 Miami Dolphins 15
Rushing Yards: 79
Passing Yards: 223
Turnovers: 2
** Statistical edge to Minnesota Vikings
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Miami Dolphins 13 Minnesota Vikings 12
Detroit Lions (+1) at Arizona Cardinals
Power Rating Projection:
Arizona Cardinals 24 Detroit Lions 18
Statistical Projections
Detroit Lions 20
Rushing Yards: 69
Passing Yards: 259
Turnovers: 3 Arizona Cardinals 20
Rushing Yards: 75
Passing Yards: 264
Turnovers: 2
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Arizona Cardinals 25 Detroit Lions 19
Seattle Seahawks (-6½) at San Francisco 49ers
Power Rating Projection:
Seattle Seahawks 23 San Francisco 49ers 20
Statistical Projections
Seattle Seahawks 25
Rushing Yards: 121
Passing Yards: 236
Turnovers: 1 San Francisco 49ers 16
Rushing Yards: 119
Passing Yards: 193
Turnovers: 2
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
San Francisco 49ers 28 Seattle Seahawks 19
San Francisco 49ers (1 star)
San Diego Chargers (+2½) at Denver Broncos
Power Rating Projection:
Denver Broncos 21 San Diego Chargers 20
Statistical Projections
San Diego Chargers 21
Rushing Yards: 136
Passing Yards: 220
Turnovers: 1 Denver Broncos 20
Rushing Yards: 144
Passing Yards: 183
Turnovers: 1
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Denver Broncos 18 San Diego Chargers 17
Historical trend: Take Denver Broncos ( Domination by Denver Broncos, 10-4-2, 71.4% )
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Monday, November 20, 2006
New York Giants (+3½) at Jacksonville Jaguars
Power Rating Projection:
Jacksonville Jaguars 22 New York Giants 19
Statistical Projections
New York Giants 20
Rushing Yards: 135
Passing Yards: 215
Turnovers: 2 Jacksonville Jaguars 19
Rushing Yards: 114
Passing Yards: 182
Turnovers: 2
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Jacksonville Jaguars 21 New York Giants 19
posted by phantom
Nov. 15 2006 1:43am -
0 likes
Kevin o.neill & friends (the Max)
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number after their last 7 wins.) Colts defense has
improved considerably in the past few weeks and
the fact their average win is by less than a TD
doesn’t matter with the spread in this range. Look
for the Colts to get the W here. Colts by 7.
Brady Bounceback
Patriots (-6) over @Packers
Strange lost for New England on Sunday. They
outgained the Jets 377-278 and their 5.7 yards per
rush makes it obvious that they should have run
more and passed less (only 25 of 66 plays were
runs). Extremely sloppy conditions and a muddy
field curtailed some of New England’s offense
options when they were in comeback mode in the
4th quarter of that contest and we’re willing to
forgive the loss, particularly when you consider how
well Jets head coach Mangini (and the cadre of ex-
Patriots on the roster) knows them.
There’s been a lot of focus on how this was the first
time that the Patriots had lost consecutively in their
last 57 games. Now New England is in a pretty good
spot for them. Playing on the road following a loss,
the Pats are 8-0 against the spread, covering those
games by more than 17 points per outing. This is a
team that feels a sense of purpose when facing
adversity. Tom Brady in particular often comes out
roaring in such situations, and he has the right
defense to fire at today, as Green Bay has the
poorest pass defense in the league by NFL statistical
standards and permit over 7 yards per pass attempt.
Overall we like the Packers (used them last week)
and think they are headed in a positive direction.
But it is tough to overlook that 8-0 angle that wins
by such a large margin on average. Lay the points
with the focused, superior team. New England by
11.
Lightning Bolt Firepower
Chargers (+3, -120) over @Broncos
When elite teams meet in a low lined game, it is
usually not a bad idea to go with the home team,
especially when they have the better defense. And
the Broncos do have a significantly better defense,
as suspensions and injury have really chipped away
at SD’s depth. But the Broncos offense really gives
one pause. They continue to struggle on a weekly
basis, this time slipping by Oakland and getting only
264 yards of offense in the process. Their scoring
drives were 41, 60, and 6 yards. They ran for only
63 yards on 24 attempts, challenging the premise
that they can just plug in no-name backs into their
offense and watch them put up big numbers. They
are certainly a good team but they may have some
problems trying to keep up in a shootout.
The Chargers certainly are that impressive offensive
club. They have all the tools and the running game
is extraordinary. Only a pair of teams in the league
have more than 10 running TD’s. The Cowboys
have 13 and the Chargers have 19! Their 35 total
TD’s is the most in the league by far. The running
game opens up the passing game, and the 66%
completions is second in the league (to Houston,
believe it or not). Taking a FG with an offense this
balanced against a Broncos D that couldn’t slow
down Manning a couple of weeks back seems like a
decent proposition. Chargers by 3.
Dave Fobare’s NFL Tech Play of the Week
Falcons (+4) over @Ravens
The Falcons are as difficult a team to handicap as
their QB Michael Vick is to stop. Can Atlanta run the
ball? Well, they do average 5.7 yards per rush. But
Michael Vick is Atlanta's 2nd leading rusher with 650
yards on 77 carries, for a very gaudy average of 8.4
yards per carry. The Falcon's leading back is Warrick
Dunn, who is averaging 4.4 yards per carry on the
season. That is nice, but its hardly earth shaking. Is
Michael Vick a leading NFL passer? His QB rating is
only 73.2, and he is averaging just 6.3 yards per
attempt. But if you include Vick's yards scrambling in
the passing totals he looks like a pretty good NFL
QB. If you think Atlanta is hard to handicap you
aren't alone. The bookmaker has a hard time with
the Falcons too. Only twice in Atlanta's nine games
has the closing line come within 6 points of the final
margin, and the underdog is 7-2 ATS in all of
Atlanta's games this season including five in a row.
So after that cautionary tale why is Atlanta the play
here? There is some good rushing based tech
favoring the Falcons, but as long as Michael Vick is
the QB that shouldn't be a surprise. But you can't
exactly count on Vick's scrambling yards to pad the
Falcon's rushing totals every week. After all, most
scrambles aren't called in the huddle; they are
improvised. No, the top tech on this game is based
on psychology. Good teams (Atlanta is still 5-4 after
all) are very good against the NFL's elite squads
(and at 7-2 the Ravens qualify) when coming off an
embarrassing loss. And losing at home to the
Cleveland Browns does qualify as embarrassing.
Atlanta applies to a 24-7 ATS system that sports a
gargantuan cover margin of nearly 11 points per
game. Sound too good to be true? This system last
popped just last Sunday on the Chicago Bears.
Coming off an ugly 31-13 loss to Joey Harrington
and the Dolphins, the Bears slumbered for nearly a
half before crushing the New York Giants 38-20.
Look for history to repeat itself again this Sunday.
Take the underdog Falcons to upset the Ravens in
the NFL Tech Team Play of the Week.
posted by phantom
Nov. 16 2006 2:36pm -
0 likes
Winning Points best bets and preferred nfl plays
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****BEST BET
*Dallas over Indianapolis by 17
The Colts may be the most bogus 9-0 team in NFL history.Even their coach,
Tony Dungy, says they could be playing better.To put things in perspective,
Indianapolis has outscored its opponents by 60 points. Dallas has
outscored its foes by 76 points. Don’t be misled by the Cowboys being just
one game above .500. It took Bill Parcells a while, but he’s found his quarterback,
Tony Romo. No, Romo isn’t Peyton Manning.Who is? Manning has
an eye-opening 18-2 touchdown/interception ratio.The Colts have trouble
running the ball. They also have problems against physical 3-4 defenses,
which Dallas utilizes. The Cowboys have upper tier defensive players in
linebacker/defensive end DeMarcus Ware and defensive backs Roy Williams
and Terrance Newman. Romo gives the Cowboys balance because they
have two decent runners, Julius Jones and Marion Barber. It’s not that Jones
and Barber are outstanding. It’s that Indy is so bad against the run.The Colts
ranked last in rush defense through Week 9.They were yielding 5.3 yards a
run, the highest since the expansion Vikings allowed 5.4 in 1961.This also
marks Indy’s third road appearance in four weeks. Dallas’ defense is particularly
rough on one-time opponents. In four division games, Dallas has
allowed an average of 26.5 points. But in five non-division matchups, the
Cowboys have given up an average of 13.6 points.The Colts have been narrowly
getting past bad teams, beating both Tennessee and Buffalo by one
point each. They were held to 31 points combined by those two teams,
who aren’t exactly noted for their defenses. Dallas is way above that level.
The Cowboys’ record should be better, while the Colts shouldn’t have such
a fancy mark.Things get a bit more evened out here. DALLAS 33-16.
***BEST BET
Pittsburgh over *Cleveland by 20
Let’s not pour dirt on the Steelers yet.They have the offense and savvy to
beat the Browns, something they’ve done 11 times in the past 12 meetings,
including twice last year. Despite their 3-6 record, Pittsburgh came into
Week 10 ranked in the top 10 in offense and defense.The Steelers are averaging
451 yards of offense their past five games. Ben Roethlisberger is back
on track,Willie Parker has never run better, and the wide receiving corps is
bolstered by the emergence of good-looking rookie Santonio Holmes. Both
teams are banged up on defense, particularly in the secondary. Cleveland is
forced to rely on second and third string cornerbacks. Hines Ward and
Holmes can take advantage. The Steelers also can take advantage of
Cleveland’s inexperience at quarterback with second-year man Charlie
Frye and a weak offensive line.The Browns have committed 22 turnovers.
Frye has been sacked 33 times. He’s on pace to be sacked more than any
other Browns quarterback in a season.The Steelers have excellent blitzing
linebackers led by Joey Porter, James Farrior and Clark Haggans. Cleveland’s
offense has picked up with Jeff Davidson replacing Maurice Carthon as
offensive coordinator. Since the switch, the Browns have averaged 20.6
points in three games. Decent but still nothing to fear. Frye is learning on
the job. He doesn’t have enough weapons. Braylon Edwards has been disappointing.
So has Joe Jurevicius. Rueben Droughns has only rushed for
100 yards twice.The Browns have lost all but once when Droughns failed
to reach the century mark. Pittsburgh ranked ninth in rush defense heading
into Week 10. Frye needs a much better offense line and talent at the
skill positions to pull off an upset. PITTSBURGH 30-10.
**PREFERRED
*San Francisco over Seattle by 7
Things are looking up for Seattle. Not only do they have a two-game lead in
the NFC West, but they’ve now beaten their only serious rival, St. Louis,
twice already. If this isn’t enough, there’s a good possibility the Seahawks
get back returning MVP Shaun Alexander and Matt Hasselbeck, who has
been targeting this game for his return. Hasselbeck had a 10-1 touchdown
to interception ratio against the 49ers last year. These are all reasons,
though, why we like the 49ers in this particular instance. Last week aside,
the 49ers have had serious problems away from home.They play better in
San Francisco and they’re catching Seattle at just the right time – overconfident
and enjoying being in command of the division.The 49ers’ offense
has matured.Frank Gore is emerging as an elite running back and the offensive
line actually has some depth. Hasselbeck could come back rusty, while
Alexander wasn’t doing anything before suffering a broken foot.We actually
hope they both play because it will cause the line to become more inflated.
Seattle’s defensive statistics look better than they are because of its shut
out of Oakland two weeks ago. Discount that game and Seattle is giving up
an average of 30.6 points its last six games. SAN FRANCISCO 28-21.
Cincinnati over *New Orleans by 7
There are some maturity issues with the Bengals.Talent-wise, though, the
Bengals should be able to put away the upstart Saints. After nine straight
games without 100 receiving yards, Chad Johnson broke out last week
against the Chargers with 260. Carson Palmer stopped doing his Turk
Schonert impersonation last week, too, and started looking like the vintage
Palmer of 2005.We feel safe saying the Bengals have their offense back.
Now it’s a question of out-scoring the Saints. For all the fanfare he’s
received, Reggie Bush has scored only one touchdown from scrimmage.
The Saints also may be without receiving star Joe Horn (check status) a
third straight week. Drew Brees has been carrying the Saints throwing for
1,370 yards and 10 touchdowns the last four games.The Saints probably are
better off with Brees pitching to Marques Colston, the Saints’ real star rookie
skill position player, but most likely they’ll elect to attack the Bengals on
the ground with Bush and Deuce McAllister. It’s always tempting to run on
the Bengals because they have a small interior and are depleted at linebacker.
The game figures to be a shootout. It’s our belief the Bengals are the
better team.They are worth playing as an underdog. CINCINNATI 30-23.
__________________
posted by phantom
Nov. 16 2006 2:38pm -
0 likes
winning points close calls nfl
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3
Kansas City over Oakland by 8
It takes mental toughness and poise to beat the Chiefs at Arrowhead
Stadium. The Raiders have neither. They also don’t have an offense. The
Raiders have put up the grand total of one touchdown on offense the past
15 quarters. Aaron Brooks (check status) probably isn’t all that anxious
about returning seeing that the Raiders have allowed 47 sacks. Art Shell
was 2-10 against the Chiefs when he coached the Raiders the first goaround
from 1989-1994. The Raiders are 0-6 the last three years against
Kansas City, although the largest margin of victory was seven points. Larry
Johnson has rushed for 534 yards and scored seven touchdowns the last
three weeks. KANSAS CITY 22-14.
*Philadelphia over Tennessee by 13
Donovan McNabb has accounted for 20 touchdowns this season. He now
gets to go up against the league’s worst pass defense.The Eagles average
390 yards, which is 79 yards more a game than their opponents.While we
certainly believe McNabb can put up great numbers here and Philly should
win handily,we can’t elevate the Eagles to even preferred status.The Eagles
ranked last in time of possession through Week 9, have just three sacks
their past four games and are 5-9 ATS as a favorite. Jeff Fisher has the Titans
still playing hard and gets back star defensive tackle Albert Haynesworth
back from suspension if he chooses to play him. PHILADELPHIA 34-21.
*Baltimore over Atlanta by 6
Baltimore definitely is in a letdown spot with a three-game division cushion.
But it’s impossible, right now, to step in with Atlanta.The Falcons are
giving up an average of 379 yards their past five games.They are missing
their best pass rusher, John Abraham, their best run-defending linebacker
Ed Hartwell (check status) and several members of their secondary.These
deficiencies have come to the forefront the last two weeks in losses to the
lowly Lions and Browns. It’s also Atlanta’s third road game in four weeks
and first game that isn’t on carpet or field turf. BALTIMORE 31-25.
*Carolina over St. Louis by 3
After looking good in September, the Rams’ defense has reverted back to its
sieve-like status. In their last six games, the Rams have surrendered 34, 20,
30, 38, 31 and 24 points. New defensive coordinator Jim Haslett likes to
blitz, but the Rams’ secondary isn’t good enough in coverage to get away
with it. Carolina entered its Monday matchup against Tampa Bay just 1-5-2
ATS.The Panthers are at their worst, too, as a home favorite going 7-18-1
ATS (28 percent) laying points at home their last 26. CAROLINA 24-21.
*Houston over Buffalo by 1
The Texans return home after being on the road the past three weeks
where they will attempt to win three in a row at Reliant Stadium for the
first time in franchise history.They may have to do it without David Carr
(check status), who suffered a bruised shoulder last week. Sage Rosenfels
isn’t a bad backup, however. Buffalo is an efficient club that knows how to
get the best of its limited talent.Anthony Thomas is a decent replacement
for injured Willis McGahee and the Bills’ recently revamped offensive line
is performing a little better. J.P. Losman may be playing for his job here.
HOUSTON 20-19.
New England over *Green Bay by 8
Brett Favre is having fun again, which is bad news for every team except
Green Bay. So is Ahman Green, who has rushed for 100 yards three of the
past four games. Green Bay actually could be riding a four-game winning
streak if it weren’t for a loss to Buffalo two weeks ago when the Packers
outgained the Bills, 427-184. The key, of course, is can Favre limit his
turnovers? The Patriots haven’t lost three straight since 2002.With injuries
at safety and defensive personnel playing out of position, there are limits
what mastermind Bill Belichick can do.Green Bay,however, is 5-15-2 ATS its
last 22 at home. NEW ENGLAND 28-20.
*Washington over *Tampa Bay by 1
Take away a controversial roughing the passer penalty against the Bengals
that set up the winning score and erase Matt Bryant’s unbelievable 62-yard
field goal and Tampa Bay would be winless going into Monday’s matchup
against Carolina. Cadillac Williams went into Monday averaging less than
three yards rushing five of eight games.The Redskins also have been highly
disappointing and now may not have Clinton Portis (check status).The
once-respected Redskins defense has just five takeaways and only 13 sacks.
Joe Gibbs may just pull the plug on over-the-hill Mark Brunell in favor of
youngster Jason Campbell.WASHINGTON 17-16.
Chicago over *New York Jets by 9
The Bears are a very good team.They are not a great team, though. Great
teams don’t lose 31-13 to the Dolphins at home or allow the one-win
Cardinals to build up a 23-3 lead against you. Somehow the Jets have
achieved five victories.Keep in mind, though, four of those wins have been
against teams with losing marks. Against winning teams, New York is 1-3.
The way to beat the Bears is generate heat on Rex Grossman.The Jets can’t
stop the run and don’t apply much pass-rushing pressure. That’s a bad
combination when going against an upper echelon team. It’s the Bears’ second
straight game at Giants Stadium. CHICAGO 23-14.
*Miami over Minnesota by 3
Following last year’s pattern, the Dolphins are getting hot the second half
of the season when the pressure is off. Still, you can’t forget Miami’s 7-21
ATS home mark and Joey Harrington’s lack of playmaking skills. The
Dolphins probably will need Harrington to make plays because nobody has
been able to run on the Vikings. Brad Childress has restored order to a dysfunctional
Minnesota squad. He just hasn’t found an offense.The Vikings are
averaging only 10 points their last four games. They have no downfield
passing attack. Brad Johnson is the league’s oldest starting quarterback at
38. He has been playing like it. MIAMI 13-10.
Detroit over *Arizona by 3
Just when you think the Lions are ready to make a move they pull a stinker
like losing last week at home to the 49ers. In this matchup, though, it’s
either Detroit or don’t play.The Cardinals have yet to recover from their 20-
point blown lead against the Bears on Monday night.They have dropped
eight consecutive games. Rookie Matt Leinart has yet to win in five NFL
starts. Roy Williams caught three touchdowns in a 29-21 Detroit victory
against the Cardinals last year.Williams is having a better season this year
with four 100-yard receiving efforts the past six games scoring four touchdowns
in that span. DETROIT 26-23.
*Denver over San Diego by 3
San Diego’s defense isn’t so imposing missing star Shawne Merriman and
nose tackle Luis Castillo.The key here is San Diego’s offense good enough
to compensate against a strong defense on the road? The Broncos are giving
up an NFL-low 12.3 points per game despite allowing a combined 54
points to the Colts and Steelers. Denver is excellent against the run.You
know the Broncos will be keying on LaDainian Tomlinson. It’s going to be
up to Philip Rivers to make plays.The Broncos have defeated the Chargers
10 of the past 11 times in Denver, including the last six. DENVER 23-20.
*Jacksonville over New York Giants by 2 (Monday)
The Jaguars are playing for their playoff lives after two losses to the Texans
the past four weeks. Jacksonville quarterback David Garrard has accuracy
issues. Let’s not lose sight, though, the Jaguars are 4-1 ATS at home. Both
teams have multiple defensive injuries, but the Giants will be without star
pass rusher Michael Strahan. There’s also a situational element here with
the Giants off a huge Sunday night marquee matchup against the Bears and
playing their first game on grass in eight weeks. It’s also New York’s first
road game in four weeks. JACKSONVILLE 19-17.
Miami over *Detroit by 1 (Thanksgiving)
Detroit finally is showing signs of grasping Mike Martz’s offense. Their
defense has gotten healthier and star defensive tackle Shaun Rogers is due
back from suspension. That’s bad news for Ronnie Brown and the
Dolphins’ground game.Joey Harrington is sure to get a rude reception, too.
But Detroit’s Thanksgiving mystique has taken a hit. The Lions have won
only one turkey game the past five years. In the past two years, they’ve lost
by a combined 68-16 to the Colts and Falcons.The Dolphins have a top-10
defense and showed last year under Nick Saban they are second-half club.
MIAMI 20-19.
*Dallas over Tampa Bay by 10 (Thanksgiving)
The short turnaround of playing on a Thursday is tough on any NFL club,
but it’s really going to be rough on Tampa Bay. Not only have the Bucs
become old on defense, but it will be their third game in 11 days. Only four
times since 1978 has a team had to play three games in 11 days with two
coming on the road. Jon Gruden never has had an offense this limited.
There’s just not much he can do with a bottom-five rushing attack, rookie
quarterback who lacks a big arm and a bad offensive line. Dallas is caught
in a bit of a sandwich spot off a marquee home matchup against the Colts
and traveling to the Giants the following week for a key NFC East Division
matchup. DALLAS 24-14.
*Kansas City over Denver by 2 (Thanksgiving)
Thanksgiving football in Kansas City? Hasn’t happened since 1969.
Nonetheless, this doesn’t figure to be a fun trip into Arrowhead for the
Broncos, who had to go overtime to edge the Chiefs, 9-6, at home back in
Week 2. It’s Denver’s third road trip in four weeks and fourth game in 18
days.The Broncos’ last four games haven’t been especially easy either going
against the Colts, Steelers, long-time rival Oakland and the Chargers. Larry
Johnson is a formidable running force, although the loss of Pro Bowl guard
Brian Waters obviously hurts KC’s attack. KANSAS CITY 21-19.
OVER/UNDER
**OVER: Atlanta at Baltimore – Alge Crumpler has five touchdown
receptions the last four games, while the Ravens’ offense is playing their
best since Brian Billick started calling plays.
OVER: Tennessee at Philadelphia – Donovan McNabb has thrown 17
touchdown passes and operates against the worst pass defense.
UNDER: Minnesota at Miami – Both teams are hard to run on and lack
quarterbacks who can challenge defenses vertically.
HISTORICAL TRENDS
Oakland at Kansas City – Kansas City swept Oakland last season winning
23-17 on the road and 27-23 at home.
Cincinnati at New Orleans – The Bengals beat the Saints, 20-13, at home
in 2002.
Pittsburgh at Cleveland – Pittsburgh is 11-1 SU, 7-3-2 ATS against
Cleveland.The Steelers won both meetings last year, 34-21 at home and 41-
0 on the road.
Tennessee at Philadelphia – The Titans knocked off the Eagles, 27-24, at
home in 2002.
Atlanta at Baltimore – Atlanta shaded the Ravens, 20-17, at home in 2002.
St. Louis at Carolina – The Panthers trimmed the Rams, 20-7, at home in
2004.
Buffalo at Houston – The Bills defeated the Texans, 22-7, at home last season.
New England at Green Bay – Green Bay beat New England, 28-10, on the
road in 2002.
Washington at Tampa Bay – Washington nipped Tampa Bay, 36-35, last
year at home.
Chicago at New York Jets – The Bears defeated the Jets, 20-13, at home in
2002.
Minnesota at Miami – The Vikings nipped the Dolphins, 20-17, at home
in 2002.
Detroit at Arizona – Detroit shaded Arizona, 29-21, at home last season.
Seattle at San Francisco – The Seahawks are 6-0 SU against the 49ers.
Seattle swept SF last year,winning 27-25 on the road and 41-3 at home.
Indianapolis at Dallas – The Colts beat Dallas, 20-3, at home in 2002.
San Diego at Denver – Denver is 10-1 SU at home vs. San Diego, including
the past six. Last year, Denver won 20-17 at home and 23-7 on the road.
New York Giants at Jacksonville – Giants defeated Jacksonville, 24-17, at
home in 2002.
Miami at Detroit (Thanksgiving) – Miami knocked off Detroit, 49-21, at
home in 2002.
Tampa Bay at Dallas (Thanksgiving) – The Bucs shut out Dallas, 16-0, at
home in 2003.
Denver at Kansas City (Thanksgiving) – The Broncos nipped the Chiefs,
9-6 in overtime in Week 2. Eight of the past 10 in the series have gone over.
__________________
posted by phantom
Nov. 16 2006 2:38pm -
0 likes
Power Sweep
NFL
KEY SELECTIONS
4* MIAMI over Minnesota - This game has the Vikings #25 & #12 units over the L4W vs the Dolphins #11 & #9 units. After playing themselves into playoff oblivion MIA is one of the underrated teams for the 2H of the season & get a very good matchup at home vs a dome team that has only 9 offensive TD’s on the year. MIN hasn’t adjusted to HC Childress’ West Coast system as QB Johnson simply doesn’t have the WR corps to make it go. This has forced the offense to press for points & MIN has lost the TO battle in the L3 games (-6). MIA has begun its 2H resurgence by upsetting the Bears & beating KC returning to what made it work for them LY. They’ve avg’d 119 ypg rush (4.1) the L4W and MIA has been able to rest the defense & take the pressure off Harrington who has been getting better in the system. The Dolphins are the play here as they take on a dome team that doesn’t play well on grass & are painfully one-dimensional with the lack of a passing game. FORECAST: MIAMI 23 Minnesota 10
3* KANSAS CITY over Oakland - The Chiefs are 21-10-1 ATS vs the Raiders. First & 2nd year QB’s are now 2-19 SU at Arrowhead Stadium. The Chiefs get another inexperienced QB at home where they have outFD’d foes 23-15 & outgained them 369-248 & are +3 TO’s with an avg score of 29-20. OAK has scored 3 TD’s in their L/61 drives & have been outrushed 164 (4.6) to 86 (3.7) on the road TY with 20 sacks allowed & are -10 in TO’s being outscored 23-7 on avg. There is some value here as KC lost to a resurgent Dolphins team & OAK played well vs a depleted DEN defense off a pair of high profile games. The OAK OL has allowed opposing defenses to hit their QB 97 times prior to LW which is 45.8% of the QB snaps & while MLB Johnson may miss his one, KC has a good pair of DE’s in Hali & Allen. Look for the Chiefs to get an easy win at home vs an overmatched OAK offense & Larry Johnson to have a big day vs OAK’s #25 rush defense. FORECAST: KANSAS CITY 24 Oakland 6
OTHER SELECTIONS
2* TAMPA BAY over Washington - LY TB scored a TD & were down by 1 with 1:52 left. The XP was blocked but WAS hit with an offsides pen & the ball was placed at the 2 yd line. TB went for it & Alstott ran it in for the 2 pt conv as the teams combined for 759 yds. TB is 7-3-1 ATS hosting a non-div foe. This is the 2nd of 3 gms TB is playing in an 11 day span & is the 4th time the schedule has ever been this tough to a team. TB’s 2-6 record prior to MNF is their worst since 1996 & they have been outFD’d 19-13 & outgained 359-214 at home TY losing by an avg score of 24-15. WAS is 1-4 SU & ATS vs NFC teams TY with their best games coming vs the AFC South. In conference play WAS has been outFD 20-15 & outgained 366-251 losing by an avg score of 22-11. There is no line due to the MNF game but TB is at home vs WAS #30 defense which will get little help as Portis is out with a broken hand & the Bucs are the play. FORECAST: TAMPA BAY 17 Washington 10
2* Tennessee (+) over PHILADELPHIA - This is officially the 2* “Ugly Dogâ€
posted by phantom
Nov. 16 2006 2:39pm -
0 likes
Monday, November 20
Jacksonville Jaguars -4 (25 Units)
The NY Giants are the kind of team you want to be on only once in a while. I know the forum boards have a lot of Giants fans running around and spreading some Giants love but those fans are talking from the heart. The Giants are a good football team but we all saw what happens when they run into a good defense (the Bears) last week and we will continue seeing the same thing all season long until this team learns that they have to play some defense of their own to take away pressure from the offense. The G-Men are currently 6-3 on the season but let's have a quick look at their six wins and who they have come against. The Giants came from behind to win their first game against the now #13 ranked Philadelphia defense. Win number two came against a Washington defense ranked #30 in the league. Win number three came against Atlanta who have the #20 defense in the NFL. Win number was the only legitimate win against the #6 defense of Dallas but Drew Bledsoe gave them that game. Win number five was against Tampa Bay and their #21 ranked defense in the NFL and win number six came against the #28 defense in the NFL. So what I am trying to say is that the Giants are in trouble tonight against the #4 ranked defense in the NFL. The 38-20 loss to the Bears last week was a great indicator as to where this team stands against stronger opponents and this should be no different against a powerful AFC team. The Giants average 17.0 points per game in their last three games for a pathetic 261.7 total yards and only 4.4 yards per play. Jacksonville's defense is and always will be their strong point as they are allowing only 8.7 points per game in their last three games for only 265.0 total yards and only 4.0 yards per play. On the ground, RB Tiki Barber still runs for chunks of yards per game but it doesn't do much for the team. The Jaguars are allowing only 113.7 rushing yards per game in their last three for only 3.6 yards per carry. In the air, QB Eli Manning is completing a pathetic 51.1% of his passes the last three games for only 4.4 yards per pass attempt. He has been sacked 6 times in those games and has thrown 3 interceptions. Jacksonville's defense is allowing their last three opponent QB's to complete only 47.6% of their passes for only 4.3 yards per pass attempt which is oustanding. They have 8 sacks in their last three games to go along with three interceptions. The Giants are converting a pathetic 29.7% of third downs the last three weeks which is big time trouble because the Jaguars are allowing only 33.3% of third downs to be converted against them over the same time span. More impressively than that, Jacksonville is allowing only a 14.3% Red Zone touchdown conversion rate the last three games while the Giants have struggled to score TD's in the Red Zone, settling for FG attempts 50% of the time. This is most definitely going to be a long night for the Giants, their fans and all their backers. The obvious choice looks like it's the G-Men but after further review...they won't win this game.
The Jacksonville Jaguars lose one game to a team they have struggled against and everyone jumps face first off the bandwagon. WOW! So even after the Jags have covered the spread in two of their last three games...that's it...you guys abandon them and jump on the G-Men? Cmon...Jacksonville is a world class team that always reacts well to losses and I don't see why they shouldn't be favored by more points in this game. The Jaguars are 5-4 on the year right now and this is a must win game for them if they want any chance of making the playoffs. Losing wouldn't be the end of the world but it sure as hell wouldn't make things comfortable the next few weeks and it would probably be too much pressure for David Garrard. It's easy for many to counter argue the fact that the Jaguars have not beat a top defensive team either but the difference between the Jags and the Giants is that Jacksonville is ranked #4 defensively while the Giants are ranked #11 (without all the injuries). Jacksonville did beat Pittsburgh, Dallas and Philadelphia but this is another big test for this team. I would like to point out though that the Giants are quickly fading on defense. and offense because of injuries. LB Lavar Arrington started things with his Achilles injury. He was worth 16 tackles and 1 sack. DE Michal Strahan is out, he's worth 25 tackles and 3 sacks. CB Sam Madison is out tonight, he's worth 2 interceptions and 23 tackles. DE Osi Umenyiora is out, he's worth 16 tackles and 5 sacks. THe #6 tackler on the team LB Carlos Emmons is banged up bad. LB Brandon Short is out tonight, he's worth 2 sacks and 18 tackles. Do you get my point now? You can't overlook this. Jacksonville is averaging 24.2 points per home game this season on 329.0 total yards and 5.5 yards per play. The Giants are allowing a whopping 25.5 points per road game this season and have allowed 373.0 total yards and 5.7 yards per play away from home. On the ground, RB Fred Taylor and the Jags have been a beast the last three games rushing for 5.3 yards per carry as a team. They average 132.0 rushing yards per home game on 4.4 yards per carry while the Giants have been horrendous against the run allowing 4.3 yards per carry away from home. In the air, QB David Garrard has played very well but struggled at the same time. He is completing only 47.4% of his passes the last three home games for only 6.6 yards per pass attempt. Garrard needs to get his act together and take advantage of a good running attack combined with the Giants defensive injuries. The Giants allow their road opponents to complete 60.6% of their passes this season for 7.0 yards per pass attempt. You can toss out all their pass rush and INT numbers because most of those guys are injured. The Jaguars are converting 40.3% of third downs at home this season while the Giants are allowing 51.8% of third downs to be converted against them on the road. OUCH! Home teams are also scoring red zone touchdowns 72.7% of the time against the Giants which should make things a lot easier for Taylor and Garrard once they move into the Red Zone. Expect the best offensive performance we have seen in a while from this Jaguars team.
The only TOP 10 defense the Giants have beat this season is Dallas (#6 defense) but that was because Drew Bledsoe was still the QB and he pretty much threw that game away. Other than that, the Giants have not beat a TOP 10 defense all season and this time they face the #4 defense in the NFL. Vegas wants the public bettor to take the Giants in the spot because it looks so good to fade a Jacksonville team coming off a loss to the Houston Texans while the Giants are coming off a loss of their own. Like I mentioned before, the Giants don't have many legite wins against TOP defense, something the public is definitely overlooking in this game. It's a mistake to jump on the Giants in this spot because it will take another game or two before the line is adjusted properly. Too many injuries, lack of fire powers against good defenses means they won't win this game. If you count of all the Giants defensive injuries not playing tonight and combine, NYG will be without 130 of their 486 tackles on the year and 11 of their 23 sacks. That's unreal!
Trend of the Game: The Giants are 1-11 ATS following a double digit loss at home.
Jacksonville 24, NY Giants 7
Since 2003 the Jags are a perfect 4-0 both straight up and against the spread following losses to Houston.
posted by phantom
Nov. 20 2006 3:16pm -
0 likes
Dr Bob
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2 Star Selection
**JACKSONVILLE (-3.5) 24 NY Giants 13
05:30 PM Pacific, 20-Nov-06
The Giants have been struggling offensively lately and will have trouble moving the ball against the league’s best defense tonight. Jacksonville has allowed just 4.6 yards per play this season to teams that would combine to average 5.3 yppl against an average team and the Jaguars apply to a very good 60-20-2 ATS Monday night home situation that has worked again this season. The Jags also qualify in a 149-78-7 ATS statistical profile indicator and my math model favors Jacksonville by 5 points in this game after adjusting 1 ½ points for the Giants being without both of their star defensive ends, Michael Strahan and Osi Umenyiora. New York’s defense couldn’t get a pass rush on Chicago last week and they’ll have a tough time getting to the mobile David Garrard, who has sparked the Jaguars’ offense in his 3 starts. I’ll take Jacksonville in a 2-Star Best Bet at - 4 points or less and for 3-Stars at -3 points or less.
Dominic Brando's Inner Circle
100 Unit Gold Star Lock NY Giants +5 -115
20 Unit Supplemental NY Giants +190
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Robert Ferringo's
4-Unit Play. Take Jacksonville (-3) over New York Giants (8:30 p.m., Monday, Nov. 20)
The Giants just simply are not the same team with all of the injuries they’ve had on both the offensive and defensive sides of the ball. Here we have value on a good AFC team against a good NFC team. The AFC is 11-2 ATS vs. the NFC over the past four weeks, and Jacksonville is 4-1 ATS at home. Also, the Jags have already beaten Dallas and Philadelphia in their lair.
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Paul Needell
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Giants +3...
LOST HIS BEST BET AGAIN YESTERDAY 1-10 NOW..
SAD THING IS HE HAS OUR GIANTS TONIGHT//
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Vegas Experts
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VEGAS EXPERTS
New York Giants at Jacksonville Jaguars
Monday, November 20th, 8:30 PM EST
Giants have gone over the total in three of their four road starts and pushed the other game. Jacksonville has gone over in three of its five starts at home, going under against AFC foes Pittsburgh and Houston. The NY GIANTS are 16-5 OVER when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%) in the second half of the season since 1992. JACKSONVILLE is 19-4 OVER in home games off in 2 straight division games since 1992.
Play on: Over
rockys computerized totals:
JACKSONVILLE - GIANTS OVER 38
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ppp
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Penthouse plays
4% JACKSONVILLE
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Mike Lee from heaven
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6* Jags
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Marc Lawrence
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Monday, November 20th
JACKSONVILLE over NY Giants by 3
Jacksonville may have moved to David Garrard on a permanent basis
but it really doesn't make any difference. It's the Jacksonville defense
that carries this team and the Giants are losing weapons on a weekly
basis. Nevertheless, New York is 10-3 ATS on the road off back-to-back
home games and, despite the injuries, is better armed that Jack is.
Giants' 1-5 ATS mark on the Monday night road sours us, but the
'Ville is only 1-4 ATS in its last fi ve under those same lights.
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Sports Reporters
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MONDAY, NOVEMBER 20
*JACKSONVILLE over NY GIANTS by 4
Jaguars have home field on Monday Night, off a humiliating second defeat to Houston on this
same field in front of these same people. This is a strange, hornet’s nest that the Giants are
traveling into. Yahoo Jack Del Rio and staff will be working overtime all week long to make
sure that the old Jacksonville coach that they replaced – Tom Coughlin – doesn’t drop another
embarrassment on their current regime. A lot of Taylor and Drew, targeted at a “downâ€
posted by phantom
Nov. 20 2006 3:41pm