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   Dr Bob

   2* Oak +7.5

   pointwise telephone plays

   2 seattle

   Norm Hitzges

   Seattle -7 vs Oakland

   FACTSMAN

   MONDAY TRIPLE PLAY...............U PLAY THE RAIDER

   SEATTLE GAME UNDER 37.5

   NO ALEXANDER NO HASSLEBACK FOR SEATTLE

   FLAT OUT NO OFFENSE FOR DA RAIDERS

   THERE 2 SCORES LAST WEEK CAME FROM INT RETURNS

   _________________

   ROCKYS TOTALS

   SEATTLE OVER

   _________________

   DOC SPTS:

   5 Unit Play. #137 Take Oakland +7½ over Seattle (Monday 8:30 pm ESPN) The Raiders have won two straight games and are catching the Hawks @ just the right moment. Seattle has lost two straight games and will still be without QB Hasselbeck and RB Alexander. This means the score will be low since Seattle will have trouble moving the football behind QB Wallace. The line is also banged up and expect Oakland to get to the quarterback behind Sapp & Burgess. This will be a field goal game and thus we will have the victory which side comes out on top. Seattle 20, Oakland 17.

   _________________

   Peter King

   Oakland (2-5) at Seattle (4-3)

   One last week of holding the fort until Shaun Alexander returns for the last eight weeks.

   Seattle 23, Oakland 9

   _________________

   Gator Report

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   Game: Oakland @ Seattle

   TV: ESPN

   Time: 8:30PM Eastern

   Line: Seattle -7 (37)

   Tech Set:

   Oakland: 21-16-1 s/u on MNF, 20-17-1 ats on MNF, 1-8 ats during the second half of the season, 7-2 ats the last 9 in this series, 8-2 ats non conference road short of 3 or more points, 0-5 ats off back-to-back wins, 1-8-1 ats before facing the Broncos, 3-8 ats before a division home game, 1-5 ats versus opponent off back-to-back s/u losses, Raiders are 3-15 ATS vs a non-divisional opponent before playing against a divisional opponent, Raiders are 7-0 ATS when they had fewer than ten incompletions last week at home, Raiders are 7-0 ATS after a win in which they allowed at least four sacks, Raiders are 4-14 ATS as a road dog vs a non-divisional opponent before playing against a divisional opponent.

   Seattle: 13-27 ats at Qwest Field playing teams with a losing record, 2-10 ats after failing to cover in four or five of the last six games, 4-0 ats in the first of back-to-back home games, 4-0 ats on Monday's off back-to-back losses, 4-0 ats as home chalk of 7 or more, 5-1 ats as chalk before facing the Rams, 6-2 ats at homeversus .333 or worse opponent, 1-6 ats after facing the Chiefs, 5-2 ats at home versus non conference foes, Seahawks are 0-11 ATS when their passing yards decreased in each of the last two weeks, Seahawks are 6-0 ATS at home the week after scoring more than 24 points and losing.

   SYSTEMS:

   "Play On" any Monday Night Underdog that covered their last 2 games. 16-7-2 ATS (Play On: Oakland)

   "Play Against" any Monday Night Football Home Favorite that lost by 7 or less points in their last game. 24-7-1 ATS (12-4 Over/Under) (Play Against: Seattle and Play the Over)

   "Play Against" any Monday Night Football team that lost on the road last week when their foe won at home. 19-10 ATS (Play Against: Seattle)

   "Play Against" any Monday Night Football team that has allowed 24 or more points in their last 2 games. 37-15-1 ATS (Play Against: Seattle)

   "Play Against" any Monday Night Football Home Team that lost straight up on the road last week. 12-4 ATS (Play Against: Seattle

   

   posted by phantom

   Nov. 6 2006 2:45pm
2. 0 likes

   Ace ~ Ace

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   Oak +7 1/2............................................$300. 00

   __________________

   Steam Sheet

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   Seattle over Oakland by 8

   If Seattle was healthy, this would be our NFL Game of the Year.

   Fading Oakland on the road after back-to-back SU wins as a

   home underdog would be too good to pass up. But, Seattle isn't

   healthy and the Raiders actually think they can win.

   __________________

   Red Sheet

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   Near Choice= Seattle

   __________________

   VALLEY SPORTS NFL FOOTBALL PICKS

   Monday 11-06-2006

   Oakland(+7.5 Or More)Over Seattle --3 Stars

   Oakland/Seattle/(Under 37 Or More) --3 Stars

   Dr. Bob

   SEATTLE (-7.5) 18 Oakland 17

   05:30 PM Pacific Time Monday, Nov-06 - Stats Matchup

   The Seahawks are lucky to be 4-3 given that they are worse than average on both sides of the ball and on special teams. Seattle is without star running back Shaun Alexander and starting quarterback Matt Hasselbeck, but they were bad offensively with those two players and backup Seneca Wallace has only been 0.1 yards per pass play worse than Hasselbeck (on a compensated basis) in his 1 ½ games since taking over. The Seahawks have averaged only 4.7 yards per play this season (against teams that would allow 5.2 yppl to an average team) and they’ll have trouble moving the ball against a solid Raiders’ defense that has allowed just 4.8 yppl this season to teams that would average a combined 5.0 yppl against an average defense). The Raiders’ offense is the worst in the league, as they have averaged only 4.3 yppl in 6 games with Andrew Walter at quarterback (against teams that would allow 5.2 yppl). I rate Oakland’s offense 0.3 yppl worse without starting back LaMont Jordan and backup Justin Fargas, so they are now 1.2 yppl worse than average entering this game. Seattle’s defense has been 0.2 yppl worse than average this season (5.4 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.2 yppl) and they’ve been getting worse (0.5 yppl worse than average in their last 5 games). Overall, the math favors Seattle by just 4 ½ points, so the line value favors the Raiders. The Seahawks don’t have the statistical characteristics of a team that would have success as a big favorite and they apply to a negative 51-121-1 ATS statistical profile indicator. Seattle also applies to a negative 30-85-1 ATS situation that plays against home favorites that have been playing poorly defensively in recent games. Oakland is coming off consecutive victories thanks to their solid defense, so morale is high heading into this game against a miserable Seattle team. Oakland would qualify in a negative 43-93-4 ATS road letdown situation at +7 or less, so I’ll only play Oakland in a 2-Star Best Bet at +7 ½ or more.

   Note: The line went down to +7 points after I released the Best Bets on Thursday, and the Raiders are just a Strong Opinion at +7 points. This game will be graded as a Best Bet at +7 1/2, win or lose, since that was the line when I released the Best Bets.with a win

   Red Zone (Top Play/under)

   The Raiders will be remembered for its domination of Roethlisberger last week, the Raiders also did a good job against the vaunted running attack of the Steelers last week. Oakland limited Pittsburgh's Willie Parker to 83 yards on 22 carries, with 39 of those yards coming on a single run. The Raiders are a defensive-minded team, one that will only have a chance to win if it creates turnovers and keeps its opponent out of the end zone. Monday night's Top play O/u winner here goes to the Under 37.5 as with out Hasselbeck and Alexander in the lineup & the Raiders playing tough "D" points will be hard to come by!!! "PLAY THE UNDER BIG TIME MONDAY

   Dunkel Index - Pro Football

   --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

   Dunkel Index – NFL

   MONDAY, NOVEMBER 6

   Game 235-236: Oakland at Seattle

   Dunkel Ratings: Oakland 117.851; Seattle 131.328

   Dunkel Line: Seattle by 13 1/2; 38 1/2

   Vegas Line: Seattle by 7; 37 1/2

   Dunkel Pick: Seattle (-7); Over

   PRIORITY SPORTS COMP

   57-21

   OAK +7.5

   --------------------------

   Paul Leiner Free Pick for Today

   Monday, November 6, 2006

   Sport: Pro Football Pick

   Game: Oakland/Seattle

   Prediction: 5 Star Raiders +7.5

   67-52-3 last 122 Free Plays!

   -----------------------------

   JR TIPS

   MONDAY, Nov 6th, 2006

   NFL

   10,000,000*- UNDER 36 1/2 SEATTLE/OAKLAND 8:30EST

   10,000,000*- SEATTLE-7 vs. Oakland

   

   posted by phantom

   Nov. 6 2006 2:55pm
3. 0 likes

   stu feiner

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   2000 Dime Pro Football Non-Conference Game of the Year....OAKLAND

   __________________

   

   posted by phantom

   Nov. 6 2006 2:56pm
4. 0 likes

   THE GOLD SHEET

   SUNDAY, NOVEMBER 12

   Kansas City 27 - MIAMI 20--Break up the Dolphins (!), winless until their stunner vs. the then 7-0 Bears last week in Chicago. Trent Green is back at practice, but don't expect him to start this game, especially with Damon Huard (former Dolphin) playing so well (11 TDs, only 1 int.). Kudos to Ronnie Brown for his 157 YR vs. Bears, but Larry Johnson (816 TY; 459 last 3 weeks) is more dangerous. K.C. "over" 5-0-1 last 6. Miami only 6-21 vs. spread last 27 at home. (05-K. City +1' 30-20...SR: Miami 13-12)

   (05-K. City 30-MIAMI 20...K.24-9 K.45/185 M.14/94 K.20/34/0/277 M.12/31/1/192 K.0 M.0)

   JACKSONVILLE 31 - Houston 10--Payback time for Jags, whose poor performance by gimpy QB Leftwich (14 of 28; missed open recs. Oct. 14 at Houston) eventuated in nifty backup Garrard (6-0-1 vs. spread 2005-06) starting and winning Jacksonville's last two games. Houston QB Carr hitting 70% under tutelage of HC Kubiak, but has infuriated his HC with 10 fumbles, losing 5. However, bigger problem is a "D" with only 2 ints. in '06! Jags 4-0 vs. spread at home TY, allowing only 6 ppg.

   (06-HOU. 27-Jack. 7...H.21-14 H.34/131 J.25/102 H.25/34/0/218 J.14/28/0/118 H.0 J.2)

   (05-JACK. 21-Hou. 14...J.18-17 J.27/98 H.23/88 J.19/25/0/214 H.22/30/0/191 J.0 H.1)

   (05-Jack. 38-HOU. 20...J.30-18 J.33/172 H.29/107 J.18/31/0/276 H.19/29/1/263 J.0 H.0)

   (06-HOU. +9 27-7; 05-JACK. -13' 21-14, Jack. -6 38-20...SR: Houston 5-4)

   CINCINNATI 27 - San Diego 24--Bengal QB Carson Palmer glad that S.D.'s Shawne Merriman (8½ sacks) is serving his 4-game NFL suspension, as that should help Cincy end recent two-game slide. "Ocho Cinco" was held to only quatro recs. at Baltimore, but should find much more room this week. LaDainian Tomlimson (838 YR) will have his moments vs. Cincy's injured LBs, but more-seasoned Palmer wins the shootout vs. Philip Rivers. (03-Cincinnati -3 34-27...SR: San Diego 17-11)

   ATLANTA 31 - Cleveland 13--Falcons tend to wear down visitors with their speedy ground game, going 3-1 vs. the spread at home. And Atlanta in the right frame of mind after poor showing last week in Detroit. Browns were out-rushed 190-89 last week in S.D.; deficit could be worse this week vs. Michael Vick (576 YR), Warrick Dunn & Jerious Norwood. Young Browns offense has 20 giveaways. (02-CLEVELAND +2' 24-16...SR: Cleveland 9-2)

   Baltimore 30 - TENNESSEE 14--Steve McNair returns with his new team to Tennessee, where management disrespected him this summer in their contract dispute. Fortunately for McNair, he brings a much stronger defense with him than that owned by rebuilding host. McNair, of course, has lots of info on his old team, but Titans have also changed lots of things to adapt to Vince Young (only 15 of 36, 3 ints. last week vs. Jags). Ravens 2-0 with HC Billick calling the plays.

   (05-TENN. 25-Balt. 10...T.16-12 T.29/97 B.13/14 T.19/37/0/193 B.25/41/1/168 T.1 B.1)

   (05-TENNESSEE +3' 25-10...SR: EVEN 8-8)

   INDIANAPOLIS 30 - Buffalo 10--Bills used part of their recent bye week to shuffle their OL, moving Jason Peters (TE in college) from RT to LT, sliding veteran Mike Gandy from LT to LG, and inserting 7th-round pick Terrance Pennington at RT. Then they went out and gained all of 184 yards vs. G.B. after losing top rusher McGahee (579 Y) in the first Q. FS Bob Sanders returned to help Indy's defense at N.E. Peyton Manning (17 TDs, 2 ints.) at peak level. (03-Indy -3 17-14...SR: Buffalo 34-29-1)

   PITTSBURGH 27 - New Orleans 26--With all their misfortunes and injuries, champs being hit hard by the Super Bowl "jinx," as they've already lost more games (6) than all of LY. QB Roethlisberger (7 TDs, 14 ints.!) still making rash decisions, while Drew Brees of Saints the other way around (14 TDs, 7 ints.), and rookie of the year candidate WR Colston has 44 recs.! Even with their rugged defense, Steelers "over" 13-0-1 last 14 at home, and 33-9-1 last 43 at Heinz!

   (02-NEW ORLEANS -3 32-29...SR: EVEN 6-6)

   Washington 27 - PHILADELPHIA 24--Did Eagles enjoy their 38-24 victory over "T.O." and Dallas too much? They are 0-3 since, collecting only 3 sacks, being hammered for 209 YR by Jacksonville just before their bye week. Still, Washington was last in sacks through Week Eight, and WR S. Moss (check status) was out with a sore hamstring. But with their own softening defense, Eagles only 4-9 last 13 when favored. Narrow win last week vs. Dallas gives 3-6 Redskins new hope.

   (05-WASH. 17-Phil. 10...17-17 W.29/78 P.23/45 P.22/35/1/291 W.21/29/0/215 W.1 P.0)

   (05-Wash. 31-PHIL. 20...P.18-14 W.36/151 P.25/96 P.21/42/2/239 W.9/25/1/128 W.0 P.4)

   (05-WASHINGTON -3 17-10, Washington -7' 31-20...SR: Washington 75-62-5)

   *NY GIANTS 23 - Chicago 16--Rowdy Bears brought back to earth by Miami last week, committing 6 more turnovers! Now they take to the road, where Chicago has barely edged Minny & Arizona last two excursions, committing combined 8 TOs (6 ints.) in those games. Potential NFL playoff edges at stake, but N.Y. was missing four starters (WR Burress, DE Umenyiora, LB Short, CB Madison) last week vs. Houston, and DE Strahan (foot) left the game, while LB Brian Urlacher (foot) & WR Berrian did not finish for Chicago! TV--NBC

   (04-Chicago +9 28-21...SR: Chicago 31-20-2)

   MINNESOTA 16 - Green Bay 15--Good defense and their "dink, dink, dink" offense has led to tight, defensive-oriented wars in most Vikes' games (only 2 "overs" TY). And can envision another nail-biter in this bitter rivalry. Rookie Gs in G.B. lineup run-blocking much better (Ahman Green 3 straight 100-yard games), while DE Kampman (9½ sacks) & rookie LB Hawk giving Pack defense more bite. Brett Favre had been cutting his ints. until two costly ones last week at Buffalo.

   (05-MINN. 23-G. Bay 20...M.24-19 M.26/108 G.23/45 G.29/37/0/329 M.23/31/0/255 M.1 G.0)

   (05-Minn. 20-G. BAY 17...M.22-13 M.37/160 G.14/21 G.20/33/2/215 M.18/30/1/171 M.1 G.0)

   (05-MINNESOTA P 23-20, Minnesota +5 20-17...SR: Minnesota 45-44-1)

   OVER THE TOTAL NEW ENGLAND 34 - NY Jets 17--When Jets met Pats in Week Two, Tom Brady wasn't yet in sync with his new receivers. Now that he is, N.Y.'s low-ranking defense will be hard-pressed to get many stops, especially since it gives up 143 ypg and is likely to be pierced by RBs Dillon & Maroney. N.E. 10-1 vs. spread after a SU loss L3+Ys. Jets will keep firing, however, making a run at another "over" (N.Y. "over" 10-1 last 11).

   (06-N. Eng. 24-JETS 17...Ne.24-16 Ne.39/147 Ny.24/51 Ny.22/37/1/286 Ne.15/29/1/211 Ne.1 Ny.0)

   (05-N. ENG. 16-Jets 3...Ne.24-12 Ne.35/146 Ny.16/41 Ne.27/37/0/251 Ny.15/37/1/123 Ne.0 Ny.0)

   (05-N. Eng. 31-JETS 21...Ne.26-10 Ne.50/151 Ny.10/40 Ne.19/30/1/170 Ny.14/26/1/131 Ne.0 Ny.2)

   (06-New Eng. -6 24-17; 05-NEW ENG. -10 16-3, New Eng. -6' 31-21...SR: NY Jets 47-45-1)

   DETROIT 26 - San Francisco 24--Detroit passing game (more than 250 yards 5 of last 6 games) a force, with Jon Kitna-Roy Williams connection flourishing (18 connections last 3 games). But don't trust beat-up, shorthanded Lion defense to contain improved Niner offense (such as it is). S.F. was 31st in ypg allowed until hosting offensively-limited Minny last week. (03-SAN FRANCISCO -7' 24-17...SR: San Francisco 32-27-1)

   Denver 23 - OAKLAND 10--With its defense in control of things, Denver took few chances in first meeting Oct. 15, cruising to "boring" non-cover win. Still, Mike Shanahan is 16-5 SU (15-7-1 vs. spread) vs. his former employer. And Jake Plummer (3 TDs) got back on the beam last week vs. Steelers. Oakland's rebuilt defense coagulating with its talented young DBs, but offense (only 98 yards last home game; LaMont Jordan sore back--check status) still inconsistent. Eight of L10 in series "under."

   (06-DENVER 13-Oak. 3...D.15-14 D.31/144 O.30/85 O.13/26/1/159 D.11/18/0/91 D.1 O.1)

   (05-Denver 31-OAK. 17...O.20-18 D.38/121 O.17/60 O.26/50/3/275 D.16/22/0/205 D.2 O.0)

   (05-DENVER 22-Oak. 3...D.24-15 D.40/155 O.17/87 D.19/29/1/259 O.17/41/1/161 D.0 O.1)

   (06-DENVER -14 13-3; 05-Denver -3 31-17, DENVER -13' 22-3...SR: Oakland 54-38-2)

   St. Louis 24 - SEATTLE 23--Shaun Alexander penciled to return for this game, but we've already heard that twice TY. So check his status, and that of QB Matt Hasselbeck (knee). Seahawks won a thriller in first meeting on 54-yard FG at end! However, with key contributors hurting for host, prefer fine skill players of underdog in rematch. QB Bulger has 13 TDs vs. only 1 int. under HC Linehan, who insisted on improved ball security TY.

   (06-Sea. 30-ST. LOU. 28...St.21-20 Se.28/125 St.22/59 St.26/39/1/309 Se.19/34/0/239 Se.1 St.1)

   (05-Sea. 37-ST. LOU. 31...Se.26-20 Se.30/134 St.17/77 St.26/40/1/309 Se.27/38/0/299 Se.0 St.1)

   (05-SEA. 31-St. Lou. 16...St.22-21 Se.36/174 St.21/75 St.28/40/1/278 Se.17/29/2/243 Se.0 St.1)

   (06-Seattle -3 30-28; 05-Seattle +3 37-31, SEATTLE -6' 31-16...SR: St. Louis 10-7)

   Dallas 27 - ARIZONA 17--Is it possible Card players were more fond of ousted off. coord. Keith Rowen than of HC Denny Green? Cards 0-4 SU with rookie Matt Leinart at QB, and 0-2 vs. spread without Rowen designing the offense. However, their three losses at their new home field have been by 2, 3, and 1 point! But a lot of that edge went out the window last week, with Bill Parcells furious after suffering one of those "unbelievable" NFL losses last week.

   (05-DALLAS 34-Ariz. 13...D.21-12 D.32/146 A.24/71 D.19/24/0/202 A.16/34/2/142 D.1 A.0)

   (05-DALLAS -9 34-13...SR: Dallas 54-28-1)

   MONDAY, NOVEMBER 13

   *CAROLINA 23 - Tampa Bay 17--Despite their capable Steve Smith-led offense and intimidating Julius Peppers-led defense, Panthers (1-5-2 vs. the spread) have covered only one game TY! And Bucs' *talent is far better than their 2-6 record indicates. T.B. might play with a little extra incentive vs. Carolina, the team that battered Chris Simms, rupturing his spleen in first meeting. Backup Gradkowski has thrown only one int. TY! CABLE TV--ESPN

   (06-Car. 26-T. BAY 24...C.22-13 C.28/101 T.25/64 C.22/36/0/249 T.14/25/1/145 C.3 T.0)

   (05-Car. 34-T. BAY 14...T.18-15 C.32/77 T.18/44 T.25/42/2/226 C.11/18/0/210 C.0 T.2)

   (05-T. Bay 20-CAR. 10...T.17-14 T.36/114 C.20/82 C.21/33/1/194 T.20/27/0/133 T.0 C.0)

   (06-Car. -3 26-24; 05-Car. -1 34-14, T. Bay +5' 20-10...SR: Carolina 7-5)

   MONDAY NIGHT HISTORY

   Tampa Bay and Carolina on Monday Night

   Tampa Bay is 2-4 SU and 2-4 vs. the spread on the road on MNF;

   6-3 SU and 7-2 vs. the spread at home on MNF.

   Carolina is 9-5 SU and 9-4-1 vs. the spread at home on MNF;

   4-3 SU and 4-3 vs. the spread on the road on MNF..

   NFL KEY RELEASES

   JACKSONVILLE by 21 over Houston

   ATLANTA by 18 over Cleveland

   WASHINGTON by 3 over Philadelphia

   - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

   OVER THE TOTAL in the N.Y. Jet-New England game

   THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 9

   *AKRON 30 - Buffalo 17--Buffalo's 2nd-half explosion last week against Kent State a sign that the 2-7 Bulls haven't cashed it in just yet. RS frosh RB Starks (162 YR, 3 TDs vs. Flashes) had his best day, and sr. QB Paoli (193 YP, 1 TD) stepped in for injured starter Willy. Akron RB Kennedy (178 YR vs. BG) gave the offense some balance last week, but QB Getsy often under pressure and Zip defense is ordinary. CABLE TV--ESPNU

   (05-Akron 13-BUF. 7...B.10-9 A.36/79 B.38/66 A.12/33/0/145 B.12/25/1/71 A.1 B.1)

   (05-Akron -10 13-7 04-AKRON -9 44-21 03-Akron -15' 38-21...SR: Akron 7-0)

   *Louisville 23 - RUTGERS 21--Little time for undefeated Louisville to celebrate home win over then-undefeated West Virginia, as Cards now face trip to undefeated Rutgers. Sure, L'ville's hopes for berth in national championship game more likely to be derailed by BCS rankings than by Scarlet Knights. And jr. QB Brohm rates big edge over still-raw Rutgers soph Teel. But Cards (only 3-7 vs. spread last 10 on road) likely to get all they can handle from happenin' host (18-7-1 last 26 as "short"), which has enough rushing (soph RB Rice is 2nd in nation with 161 ypg), defense (only 7 TDs allowed), and special teams to wage 60-minute battle. CABLE TV--ESPN

   (05-LVL. 56-Rutgers 5...L.25-9 L.43/161 R.26/96 L.23/31/0/339 R.12/24/2/91 L.1 R.0)

   (05-LOUISVILLE -21' 56-5...SR: Rutgers 4-1)

   *BYU 35 - Wyoming 10--Since MWC frontrunner BYU continues to be a blue-chip investment (8-0-1 vs. spread), must lay it vs. Wyoming squad that barely escaped vs. lower-rung San Diego State. Cougars sizzling sr. QB John Beck (22 TDP, 3 ints.) raises his NFL stock with each game. Meanwhile, doubt Cowboys still-developing, mistake-prone attack (11 lost fumbles) able to sustain many drives vs. blitzing BYU defense that's permitted just one meaningful TD last 3 games.

   (05-Byu 35-WYOMING 21...B.26-21 B.50/267 W.33/166 W.20/25/2/241 B.20/29/0/179 B.0 W.3)

   (05-Byu -4 35-21 04-BYU -7' 24-13 03-WYO. +1 13-10...SR: BYU 39-30-3)

   FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 10

   CENTRAL MICHIGAN 24 - Western Michigan 23--Respect job RS frosh QB LeFevour has done for CMU in throwing for 261 ypg and 13 TDs with just 2 ints. in leading Chips to 4-1 SU mark last 5 games. Also realize RB Sneed has returned to top form last 2 games (261 YR, 5 TDs vs. BG & Temple). However, prefer WMU side that owns vastly superior defense (ranked 20th) and has balance of its own in QB Ryan Cubit (1306 YP, 11 TDP last 6 gms.) & RB Bonds (104 ypg rushing). TV--ESPNU

   (05-WMU 31-C. Mich. 24...C.35-15 W.35/126 C.39/115 C.46/71/3/460 W.16/29/0/239 W.1 C.1)

   (05-WMU -2' 31-24 04-CMU -7' 24-21 (OT) 03-WMU -9' 44-21...SR: W. Michigan 43-31-2)

   *Utep 30 - UAB 24--Insiders say there's pressure building at UAB on longtime HC Watson Brown, who complains his Blazer defense lacks toughness. So does UTEP's. Still, malleable Miners likely to get enough stops to give prolific sr. QB Palmer (81 career TDP!) a chance to eke out SU win. Blazing UTEP sr. WR & return man Higgins (20 TDs last 1+ seasons) is most dangerous weapon on field. CABLE TV--ESPN2

   (05-Uab 35-UTEP 23...Ut.30-22 Ua.45/189 Ut.43/148 Ut.33/52/3/337 Ua.11/17/1/184 Ua.1 Ut.1)

   (05-Uab +7' 35-23...SR: UAB 1-0)

   SATURDAY, NOVEMBER 11

   MARYLAND 19 - Miami-Florida 13--Resurgent Maryland has won 4 straight & covered 4 of last 5. Miami still has more athletes on defense than Terps. But will that be enough to compensate for staggering Hurricane attack (16 TDs, 14 giveaways vs. Div. I-A foes TY)? Deliberate host (only 6 turnovers last 6 games) taking righteous care of rock with composed sr. QB Hollenbach at helm. (DNP...SR: EVEN 7-7)

   Purdue 17 - ILLINOIS 15--Purdue has slowed to a walk last 3 games, as Boilermaker offense has just 2 TDs in last 3 games and hasn't run for 100 yards in last 4. Illinois showed some moxie in standing up to No. 1 Ohio State last week, holding Buckeye attack to season-low 224 yards and 17 points. Illini defense ranks respectable 26th, while rushing attack is generating 174 ypg rushing. Underdog has covered last 8 Illinois games!

   (05-PURD. 37-Ill. 3...P.26-15 P.47/190 I.42/168 P.18/26/1/201 I.11/28/3/97 P.0 I.1)

   (05-PURDUE -23 37-3 04-Purdue -21' 38-30 03-PURDUE -14 43-10...SR: Illinois 44-36-4)

   PENN STATE 37 - Temple 7--Temple certainly not pretty to watch, but Owls' 5-1 spread record last 6 games has backers smiling. Penn State offense far from explosive (85th in scoring), and HC Joe Paterno (injured knee; check status) will probably ease up a bit on Temple HC Al Golden, who started at TE for Joe Pa in '90 & '91.

   (03-PENN STATE -25 23-10...SR: Penn State 31-3-1)

   SOUTH FLORIDA 20 - Syracuse 16--Resourceful RS frosh QB Grothe (check status) led USF to likely bowl-clinching win over Pitt before hobbling off with foot injury last week. With or without him, Bulls won't easily extend margin against speedy Syracuse "D" that's desperate to help Orange end 11-game Big East losing streak.

   (05-S. Fla. 27-SYR. 0...Sf.20-12 Sf.51/338 Sy.37/117 Sf.5/14/1/89 Sy.8/26/3/65 Sf.0 Sy.0)

   (05-South Florida -7' 27-0...SR: South Florida 1-0)

   Michigan 31 - INDIANA 16--Expect Michigan to use this as a dress rehearsal for highly-anticipated visit to Columbus next week, but Wolverines don't figure to risk injury by pushing starters just to extend lead. Indiana's defense has shown extreme vulnerability at times, but Hoosier QB K. Lewis has 732 yds. total offense & 8 TDP last 2 games, so backdoor cover vs. No. 2 Wolverine defensive lineup a possibility.

   (05-MICH. 41-Ind. 14...M.26-9 M.49/216 I.28/63 M.23/37/0/209 I.13/30/1/147 M.1 I.0)

   (05-MICH. -25' 41-14 04-Mich. -18 35-14 03-MICH. -34 31-17...SR: Michigan 49-9)

   Wisconsin 21 - IOWA 13--Wisconsin owns one of the strongest defenses in the country, as Badgers allow fewer than 12 ppg. Iowa offensive production down markedly this season, as injuries and graduation have resulted in a 1-8 spread mark and a pair of SU losses at previously formidable Kinnick Stadium (2-2 SU last 4 after winning 25 of previous 26 at home). Badgers solid in all phases of game, and RB P.J. Hill recovered from neck injury suffered vs. Illinois to run for 148 yds. vs. Penn State.

   (05-Iowa 20-WIS. 10...I.21-16 I.37/166 W.31/19 W.21/38/0/257 I.21/34/1/224 I.1 W.0)

   (05-Iowa +2' 20-10 04-IOWA -3 30-7 03-Iowa +2' 27-21...SR: Iowa 40-39-2)

   BOSTON COLLEGE 33 - Duke 10--Doormat Duke (outscored 92-19 in first half of last 4 games) tends to lose touch early. However, not sure blue-collar BC will be that interested in scaling this pointspread mountain after depressing loss at Wake.

   (DNP...SR: Boston College 2-1)

   Georgia Tech 32 - NORTH CAROLINA 13--Carolina showing some fight since ax fell on lame-duck HC Bunting. But Tech looking to secure spot in ACC title game. Sr. QB Ball, underrated RB Choice (100+ YR in 4 of last 5), and star WR C. Johnson enough to get job done. Spread result likely hinges on how well volatile Heel QB Dailey keeps his composure against blitzing Ramblin' Wreck defense.

   (05-GA. TECH 27-N. Car. 21...G.20-15 G.33/122 N.26/61 G.25/48/0/353 N.18/39/3/280 G.0 N.0)

   (05-TECH -12' 27-21 04-UNC +8 34-13 03-TECH -10 41-24...SR: Georgia Tech 21-17-3)

   WEST VIRGINIA 41 - Cincinnati 14--Sure, West Va. might be flat after Louisville let the air out of its BCS hopes. But focused effort from angry Mountaineers more likely under fiery HC Rodriguez. Cincy has extra prep time & 5 covers in last 6 games. But pedestrian Bearcat attack severely outgunned by Slaton, White & Co.

   (05-W. Va. 38-CINCY 0...W.17-15 W.50/297 C.33/62 C.21/29/2/207 W.8/13/0/109 W.0 C.2)

   (05-Wvu -14 38-0 03-Cincy +7 15-13...SR: West Virginia 12-1-1)

   FLORIDA STATE 24 - Wake Forest 21--Proud Fla. State would love to deliver a "message" to upstart 8-1 Wake, which leads Seminoles in ACC's Atlantic Divison. And no surprise if FSU emerges with SU win now that mobile QB Lee is sparking attack. Nothing seems to come easy against disciplined Deacons (13-6 last 19 as dog), however. HC Grobe now has some defensive depth to go with his offensive guts & guile.

   (05-FLA. ST. 41-W. For. 24...F.27-15 W.43/247 F.36/192 F.24/37/0/395 W.18/25/0/168 F.0 W.0)

   (05-FSU -21 41-24 04-Fsu -13' 20-17 03-FSU -19 48-24...SR: Florida State 21-2-1)

   KENTUCKY 34 - Vanderbilt 28--Since coming 5-4 Kentucky needs just one more win to gain bowl bid and save well-liked HC Brooks' job, prefer to lay small number vs. hard-trying but banged-up Vandy. Wildcats seasoned QB Woodson (60%, 20 TDP)--able to work play-action with emerging, speedy RS frosh RB A. Smith (158 YR in 36 carries last two games)--figures to outduel Vandy's athletic but less-experienced triggerman Nickson. UK's beleaguered defense played its best H of year in limiting Georgia to just one TD after intermission in 24-20 upset last week!

   (05-Ky. 48-VANDY 43...V.30-16 K.43/210 V.27/119 V.39/67/0/395 K.12/20/1/155 K.1 V.3)

   (05-Ky. +11' 48-43 04-KY. +3 14-13 03-VANDY +6' 28-17...SR: EVEN 37-37-4)

   EAST CAROLINA 31 - Marshall 16--Final home game for bankroll-buddy ECU (covered 16 of 20 last 1+ seasons!), which needs one more win to be eligible for first bowl game since 2001. Star RB Bradshaw & sr. QB Skinner (5 TD passes last 2 games) not quite enough for Marshall to deny Pirates & cool sr. QB Pinkney.

   (05-E. Car. 34-MAR. 29...E.25-22 E.45/245 M.34/199 E.17/25/1/219 M.26/35/1/191 E.1 M.1)

   (05-East Carolina +5' 34-29...SR: East Carolina 5-2)

   Navy 35 - EASTERN MICHIGAN 17--Disciplined Navy showed remarkable progress at Duke, running for 435 yds. with backup QB Kaheaku-Enhada (119 YR) at the controls. Middie ground attack is tops in the country despite losing starting QB Hampton to injury Nov. 14. EMU has covered 4 straight, but Eagle rush defense ranks 113th in the country, and this game is being played indoors on a fast track at Ford Field in Detroit.

   (03-NAVY -14 39-7...SR: Navy 1-0)

   VIRGINIA TECH 41 - Kent State 3--Surprising bloom off Kent's rose after two straight losses. Rest of Flashes' now-fallow garden will be plowed under by Tech RB Ore & hellacious Hokie defense. If Kent QB Edelman and RB Jarvis had difficulty dealing with the Bull defense at Buffalo last week, they aren't going to like what they see across the line from them in this game. VT ranks 3rd in the nation defensively and is 13-4 laying DDs at Blacksburg since 2003. (DNP...SR: EVEN 1-1)

   UTAH 31 - Colorado State 13--Fading CSU (4 straight losses, 1-3 vs. spread) in midst of its typical late-season swoon, while rested, motivated Utah, goes bowling with one more win. Rams bruised QB Hanie (sacked 34 times!), who is seriously hampered sans a creditble ground game (only 2 ypc) finds no relief vs. fresh Ute defense, spearheaded by ominpresent DB leader Weddle. Rams (outscored 34-0 in the 4th Q of their 5 losses) have generated just 2 TDs over last 10 Qs!

   (05-COLO. ST. 21-Utah 17...18-18 U.45/170 C.30/151 U.15/27/2/255 C.18/26/1/226 C.0 U.0)

   (05-CSU -4' 21-17 04-UTAH -26 63-31 03-Utah +6' 28-21...SR: Utah 28-17-2)

   TEXAS A&M 28 - Nebraska 17--Nebraska needs just one more win to clinch the Big XII North, but Huskers will have to wait until they return home to Lincoln and face 1-9 Colorado Nov. 24. Don't trust Husker defense to control hot A&M (5 straight covers) at College Station, especially considering NU gave up 41 points in last road game at Oklahoma State. Aggies' balanced attack of QB McGee (only 2 int. in 243 pass attempts this season), power guy Lane (18 TDR) & frosh speedster Goodson (127 YR vs. Oklahoma) produces just enough points. (03-NEBRASKA -10 48-12...SR: Nebraska 9-2)

   ARKANSAS 28 - Tennessee 20--Prefer to side with confident 8-1 Arkansas squad that nicely balanced its devastating ground attack (ranked 4th nationallly) with efficient passing from 6-2 soph QB Dick (replaced ineffective Mustain), who completed 11 of 19 for 228 yds. in 26-20 win at South Carolina. With injured QB Ainge (seeTicker) & RB Foster (arrested on Sunday; check status) iffy, not sure UT able to bounce back from last-second loss vs. LSU. UT's excitable RS frosh backup QB Crompton sure to see a variety of d.c. Herring-installed blitz packages. (DNP...SR: Tennessee 12-2)

   TULANE 32 - Southern Miss 28--Permissive Tulane's defense has shown more "hang-in-there" at home than on road. Green Wave sr. QB Ricard & jr. RB Forte combine to trump true frosh USM star RB Fletcher.

   (05-S. MISS 26-Tulane 7...T.17-15 S.38/136 T.32/111 S.18/30/0/276 T.11/27/2/155 S.0 T.0)

   (05-USM -21 26-7 04-Usm -13' 32-14 03-USM -17' 28-14...SR: Southern Miss 20-7)

   TULSA 33 - Rice 24--After stellar pointspread run, well-coached Tulsa has failed to cover last 2. Can Hurricanes play "keepaway" from burgeoning Rice attack? Soph QB Clement (17 TDP, only 4 ints. TY), soph WR Dillard (TDC in 11 straight games), and sr. RB Q. Smith (354 YR & 6 TDs last 2 games) trying to get renascent Owls (won & covered 4 of last 5) back to bowl game for first time since 1961!

   (05-Tulsa 41-RICE 21...R.19-18 R.59/231 T.34/178 T.18/24/1/205 R.8/21/2/85 T.0 R.2)

   (05-Tulsa -7 41-21 04-TULSA +1 39-22 03-Tulsa -3 31-28...SR: Rice 6-4-1)

   SMU 28 - Houston 26--Like Rice, former Southwest Conference member SMU hoping to end long postseason drought. Mustangs have just enough defense to give blossoming RS frosh QB Willis (20 TDP, only 4 ints.) a chance to best more established star Houston sr. QB Kolb (22 TDP & just 3 picks TY).

   (05-Smu 29-HOU. 24...H.24-16 S.36/124 H.40/119 H.25/36/2/273 S.12/27/1/117 S.1 H.1)

   (05-Smu +12' 29-24...SR: Houston 11-9-1)

   AUBURN 23 - Georgia 14--With spread rising following Georgia's upset loss at Kentucky (4th defeat in last 5 games!), don't mind bucking an undynamic Auburn squad that's 1-6 vs. spread last 7. Tigers offense (only 18 ppg last 5 SEC tilts) lacks playmakers at WR, and with workhorse RB Irons (see Ticker) a ?, roomy number could work. Dawgs 3-0 as rare DD conf. dog since 2001 (1-0 TY).

   (05-Auburn 31-GA. 30...A.23-22 A.46/227 G.31/142 G.20/36/0/304 A.16/28/1/279 A.1 G.2)

   (05-Auburn +3 31-30 04-AUBURN -3' 24-6 03-GEORGIA -6 26-7...SR: Auburn 53-48-8)

   WASHINGTON 28 - Stanford 5--Which "go-against" argument is more persuasive? Winless, punchless Stanford (only 1-8 vs. line) and its ongoing quest to plumb new depths of ineptitude, ready to set all-time school losing streak with what would be its 12th loss in a row? Or fading U-Dub, whose once-buoyant bowl hopes are almost extinguished, which has covered only 8 of its last 37 chances as chalk? Either way, proceed with caution.

   (04-STANFORD -13' 27-13 03-WASHINGTON -13 29-17...SR: Washington 39-33-4)

   Alabama 17 - LSU 21--With number zooming following disparate efforts week ago, ready to take DDs with proud, resilient Bama squad that's 8-1-1 as a DD dog since '96. LSU's strong-armed jr. QB J. Russell (6-6 SU, 10 TDP, 12 ints.; 3 ints. vs. Vols) still a wildcard vs. last 12 SEC bowl teams he's faced. Tide's poised, careful soph QB J. P. Wilson (only 3 ints. last 5 games) has the weaponry (RB Darby healthy; WR K. Brown expected back) to move chains. Bama "D" hasn't permitted more than 28 pts. since 2003!

   (05-Lsu 16-ALA. 13 (OT)...A.20-16 A.32/97 L.33/46 L.16/30/0/229 A.19/40/0/187 L.0 A.0)(05-Lsu -3 16-13 (OT) 04-LSU -8 26-10) (03-Lsu -7 27-3...SR: Alabama 43-21-5)

   FLORIDA 24- South Carolina 16--USC can't seem to get that "hump win" vs. SEC elite TY. Still, DDs worth taking with competitive 'Cocks (last 3 losses by 7 pts. or fewer), who own the offensive versatility--with either QB Newton or Mitchell (nearly led comeback win vs. Ark.)--to hang around semi-satisfied Florida (clinched SEC East), generating just 23 ppg in SEC action. HIGH emotion on both sides, with Steve Spurrier's return to "The Swamp" vs. revenge-minded Gators, but can't overlook UF's poor 2-10-2 spread mark last 14 in SEC. Kicking edge to 'Cocks deadly PK Succop (12 of 13 FGs).

   (05-S. CAR. 30-Fla. 22...F.21-16 F.37/149 S.36/120 F.18/31/1/210 S.7/17/0/126 S.0 F.0)

   (05-USC +4 30-22 04-FLA. -7 48-14 03-Fla. -7 24-22...SR: Florida 19-4-3)

   COLORADO 24 - Iowa State 13--1-9 Colorado meets injured 3-7 ISU, which has lost the ability to run (straight-ahead, short-yardage back Kock was Cyclones' leading rusher last week with 33 yds.). At least Buff QB B. Jackson (105 YR vs. K-State) and RBs Charles & Holliday give CU a chance to grind out a few FDs to position PK Crosby for key points.

   (05-IA. ST. 30-Colo. 16...C.23-15 C.38/79 I.25/36 C.25/42/2/284 I.20/38/0/251 I.1 C.1)

   (05-ISU +2 30-16 04-COLO. -10' 19-14 03-Colo. -7 44-10...SR: Colorado 46-13-1)

   Minnesota 41 - MICHIGAN STATE 35--Minnesota QB Cupito snapped out of his slump with a vengeance against Indiana last week, and he figures to give MSU 2ndary (109th in pass efficiency) trouble. Fading MSU is 1-7 SU & 1-6-1 vs. number last 8. Spartan QB Stanton capable of trading with best, but Minny has weapons to hurt MSU's faulty defense.

   (05-MIN. 41-Mich. St. 18...Mn.25-24 Mn.63/327 Mc.21/145 Mc.29/46/0/312 Mn.8/13/0/123 Mn.0 Mc.0)

   (05-MINN. -5' 41-18 04-MSU +9 51-17 03-Msu +6 44-38...SR: Michigan State 25-15)

   Ohio State 40 - NORTHWESTERN 10--Northwestern QB Bacher has 3 straight 200+ passing games, and RB Sutton gained 346 YR in those 3 contests, helping NU defense. Ohio State got more of a test than it would like at Illinois, so expect solid effort against Wildcats in preparation for Michigan game next week. Buckeye defense has allowed more than 10 points only twice TY.

   (05-OHIO ST. 48-N'wstrn 7...O.23-16 O.54/317 N.29/98 N.18/40/1/153 O.9/15/1/105 O.0 N.1)

   (05-OSU -19 48-7 04-NWU +11 33-27 (OT) 03-OSU -20' 20-0...SR: Ohio State 56-14-1)

   Notre Dame 35 - AIR FORCE 13--Notre Dame coverage problems that were apparent facing North Carolina last week won't be exploited by land-locked Air Force attack. Irish have already seen (and handily dispatched) Navy's option, and Air Force has scored fewer than 20 ppg at home. Falcons own a vulnerable pass defense, and ND star QB Quinn seeking a few Heisman votes with productive outing. TV--CSTV (DNP...SR: N. Dame 21-5)

   FRESNO STATE 38 - New Mexico State 23--Lean to embarrassed 1-7 FSU squad plummeting in class after facing 3 teams (Hawaii, LSU & Boise St.), who're combined 23-4 SU! Bulldogs punishing RB Wright (122 all-purpose ypg) should do no wrong vs. soft NMS front 7 (yielding 5 ypc), and Aggies just 2-7 as road dog last 1+Ys.

   (05-Fres. St. 37-NMSU 7...F.19-10 F.49/207 N.28/90 F.10/19/0/112 N.17/31/0/105 F.0 N.2)

   (05-Fresno State -27' 37-7...SR: Fresno State 12-0)

   NEW MEXICO 23 - Tcu 22--TCU will be "bowling" again this postseason, but things are not the same in Fort Worth as LY's magical 11-1 mark when Frogs were a whopping +21 in TO margin (they're -1 in same category TY). Meanwhile, UNM's RS frosh QB Porterie proving positively David Copperfield-like in rallying Lobos to three straight thrilling wins. Rocky Long's UNM teams are 9-0 SU after a regular-season bye.

   (05-TCU 49-N. Mex. 28...N.24-13 T.34/272 N.45/175 N.25/44/4/245 T.16/28/0/192 T.1 N.2)

   (05-TCU -1' 49-28...SR: TCU 4-3)

   California 30 - ARIZONA 10--Were those signs of life we detected from UA last week at Pullman? Perhaps, as Cat QB Tuitama appeared refreshed in return game from concussion, and RB Henry finally provided something of an infantry diversion vs. WSU. But keep in mind that Mike Stoops' offenses haven't scored a point last 2 years vs. Cal. And doubt Jeff Tedford wants Bears to enter showdown vs. USC off flat effort. TV-ABC

   (05-CAL. 28-Ariz. 0...C.18-13 C.44/194 A.28/37 A.19/36/3/169 C.14/21/1/137 C.1 A.0)

   (05-CAL. -16 28-0 04-Cal. -22' 38-0 03-CAL. -17' 42-14...SR: California 12-11-2)

   Boise State 31 - SAN JOSE STATE 23--Boise still on track for undefeated reg. season and possible BCS berth. But worth noting that Broncos not carrying their "blue carpet pointspread magic" lately on road, where they're only 4-10-1 last 15 vs. number. San Jose "O" balanced enough (mini-RB Davis 376 YR last 2) to keep aggressive Boise "D" honest, and Broncs happy to slow pace and let RB I. Johnson do bulk of offensive work. TV-ESPN-2

   (05-BOISE ST. 38-Sjsu 21...B.21-15 B.49/229 S.31/54 B.20/29/2/249 S.17/34/0/217 B.0 S.3)

   (05-BSU -30' 38-21 04-Bsu -33 56-49 (OT) 03-BSU -26' 77-14...SR: Boise State 6-0)

   *NEVADA 48 - Utah State 11--Unless oddsmakers inflate number out of sight (which they might be tempted to do), have no interest bucking red-hot Nevada bunch that's covered 7 in row and is a spotless 10-0 vs. line as Reno chalk since Chris Ault re-assumed command of program in '04. Fun time for sr. QB Rowe and Wolf Pack "Pistol" vs. USU stop unit that's allowed almost three-quarters of a mile (1142 yards!) past 2 weeks.

   05-Nev. 30-UTAH ST. 24...19-19 N.45/195 U.39/93 U.19/27/1/226 N.12/19/0/146 N.1 U.0)

   (05-Nevada -9' 30-24...SR: Nevada 12-4)

   *OKLAHOMA STATE 38 - Baylor 17--BU's 6-4 RS frosh QB Szymanski (1 TDP, 2 TDRs last week) has lots of talent, but he's just starting to go through his growing pains, unsupported by much of a ground game. So, must side with explosive OSU offense after it was shut down last week in Austin. Bobby Reid & Co. (41 points vs. Nebraska in last home game) happy to be back in Stillwater.

   (05-BAY. 44-Ok. St. 34...O.27-15 O.31/90 B.40/46 O.29/50/4/383 B.22/35/0/272 B.1 O.4)

   (05-BAYLOR -3 44-34 04-OSU -25' 49-21 03-Osu -27 38-21...SR: EVEN 12-12)

   *OKLAHOMA 30 - Texas Tech 17--Controversial ending of LY's game in Lubbock (see Looking for an Angle) will have Sooners extra eager. And TT has had some misadventures on the road TY, losing 12-3 at TCU & 30-6 at Colorado. OU defense, OL, and ground game (RB Patrick 440 YR in 3 games replacing Adrian Peterson) allowing QB P. Thompson (only 3 completes last week at A&M) to play low-risk football.

   (05-TEX. TECH 23-Okla. 21...T.23-21 O.45/162 T.31/144 T.24/37/2/232 O.12/26/0/118 T.0 O.0)

   (05-TECH -7' 23-21 04-OKLA. -25 28-13 03-Okla. -19 56-25...SR: Oklahoma 10-3)

   *Pittsburgh 21 - CONNECTICUT 16--Offense usually struggles for UConn, but Husky defense still fighting hard for no-nonsense HC Edsall. Pitt has an eye on upcoming "Backyard Brawl" vs. West Va. and not much machismo in trenches.

   (05-PITT 24-Conn. 0...C.20-11 C.37/143 P.34/76 C.18/35/3/156 P.12/21/0/116 P.0 C.0)

   (05-PITTSBURGH -12 24-0 04-CONNECTICUT -6' 29-17...SR: EVEN 1-1)

   *CLEMSON 24 - North Carolina State 13--Clemson QB Proctor hasn't been able to make recent foes pay enough for stacking box against bread-and-butter Tiger ground game. N.C. State is young & lacks much discipline, although scrappy Wolfpack (4 of 5 losses by 7 points or fewer) hasn't quit (yet?) on beleaguered HC Amato.

   (05-Clem. 31-N. CAR. ST. 10...C.23-16 C.41/243 N.27/103 C.22/31/1/246 N.19/36/1/175 C.0 N.1)

   (05-Clem. +4' 31-10 04-CLEM. +1 26-20 03-NCS -5 17-15...SR: Clemson 47-26-1)

   *Ucf 31 - MEMPHIS 27--Defending C-USA champ UCF finally got its defense together last week vs. East Carolina, allowing only 23 points and 305 yards. Another such effort helps better-balanced, but defense-shy Golden Knights vs. coverless (0-7-1 vs. spread) Memphis. CABLE TV--CSTV (05-UCF +1' 38-17...SR: EVEN 1-1)

   (05-UCF 38-Memphis 17...U.26-14 U.57/261 M.32/221 U.14/21/0/290 M.14/23/1/80 C.0 M.0)

   *Texas 34 - KANSAS STATE 20--Even though Texas has trailed in 4 of its last 5 games and doesn't run as well as it used to under Vince Young, heady Longhorn QB McCoy (UT record 27 TDP TY!), seems fearless in assaulting opponents' secondaries. K-State's improving young skill group improving rapidly after satisfying wins over Iowa State and Colorado. Wildcats make it interesting.

   (03-TEXAS -6' 24-20...SR: Texas 5-3)

   *SAN DIEGO STATE 24 - Unlv 12--Feel free to talk us out of laying points with 1-win SDSU. But at least Aztecs displaying a pulse lately (recent home win over Air Force and close loss at Wyo), and original starting QB O'Connell returned to action last week at Laramie. That's more than can be said for sad-sack UNLV bunch that has effectively combined its ineptitude with pointspread futility (Rebs 2-12 vs. line last 14 away).

   (05-UNLV 13-Sdsu 10...U.13-10 U.49/153 S.35/34 S.14/28/3/106 U.8/18/2/88 U.1 S.1)

   (05-UNLV +9' 13-10 04-SDS -9' 21-3 03-Sds +5 7-0...SR: San Diego State 8-7)

   *Washington State 24 - ARIZONA STATE 17--Recuperative powers of each will be tested after last week's depressing efforts. But even if wideouts Hill & Bumpus (both injured last week) can't make post, a measured vote for Wazzu and heady QB Brink. Less inclined to trust ASU's erratic Carpenter and injury-plagued Sun Devil "O" (most WRs & key RB Torain now hurting) to make something happen vs. juiced-up Cougar pass rush.

   (05-Ariz. St. 27-WASH. ST. 24...A.31-28 W.42/223 A.39/124 A.29/44/1/424 W.21/35/1/283 A.1 W.1)

   (05-Asu -2 27-24 04-ASU -13' 45-28 03-WSU -13' 34-19...SR: Arizona State 18-12-2)

   *Oregon State 27 - UCLA 19--After passing a Dr. Phil-like psychological test (with flying colors) vs. ASU, there's apparently still time to "buy" red-hot OSU squad that's starting to think about more-desirable bowl (such as Holiday?) destinations. And it's a special game for Beavers' ex-UCLA sr. QB Moore, who has mostly eradicated the mistakes that plagued him LY (only 6 picks TY vs. 19 in '05) and that cost OSU dearly in LY's loss vs. a better Bruin side.

   (05-UCLA 51-Osu 28...O.24-20 U.45/235 O.39/181 O.21/34/2/330 U.16/25/0/262 U.0 O.1)

   (05-UCLA -9 51-28...SR: UCLA 37-13-4)

   *SOUTHERN CAL 31 - Oregon 20--Not sure that last week's rout of inept Stanford means all is okay again for Pete Carroll's SC bunch that had dropped 5 straight vs. number before finding oasis in Palo Alto. But Trojans are healthier than they've been since early September now that explosive WR Jarrett has returned to lineup. And Pac-10 sources say recent erratic efforts by Oregon's jr. QB Dixon (2 more picks last week vs. U-Dub) mean Mike Bellotti won't hesitate to dust off his old two-QB system and give fellow jr. QB Leaf another look. CABLE TV--FSN

   (05-S. Cal 45-ORE. 13...S.31-16 S.42/278 O.29/65 S.23/39/1/315 O.21/37/1/197 S.1 O.0)

   (05-Southern Cal -21 45-13...SR: Southern Cal 35-15-2)

   *HAWAII 66 - Louisiana Tech 17--Perhaps women and children ought to be barred from the expected carnage at Aloha Stadium. Best of luck to yielding La Tech defense against QB Brennan (39 TDP already!) and bowl-bound UH Red Gun that's scoring at better than point-per-minute clip lately (62 ppg last 4!) and would be happy to avenge lopsided loss vs. a better Bulldog team at Ruston LY.

   (05-LA. TECH 46-Hi. 14...L.26-17 L.54/327 H.15/11 H.26/37/1/269 L.14/20/0/149 L.0 H.1)

   (05-LTU -3' 46-14 04-HAWAII -4 34-23 03-Hawaii P 44-41...SR: Hawaii 3-1)

   ADDED GAMES

   FLORIDA ATLANTIC 19 - Troy 18--Troy still in thick of Sun Belt race. But Howard Schnellenberger's FAU not rolling over for conference foes, and Owls "O" showing a more pizzazz past few weeks now that Smith/Clayton QB combo providing more-effective leadership.

   (05-TROY 28-Fla. Atl. 14...T.19-15 F.27/114 T.38/112 T.17/27/0/271 F.21/37/1/216 T.0 F.0)

   (05-TROY +3' 28-14 04-TROY -12' 24-6...SR: Troy 3-0)

   *LOUISIANA-LAFAYETTE 31 - North Texas 15--Disappointing consecutive losses to Middle Tenn. & Troy have basically scuttled ULL's New Orleans Bowl hopes. But Cajuns and their juiced-up infantry still more appealing than relying on UNT's popgun attack (last nationally in total offense) to do any significant damage.

   (05-La.-Laf. 31-N. TEX. 28...L.25-19 L.61/327 N.33/263 N.8/14/1/112 L.8/11/1/109 L.0 N.1)

   (05-Ull -4 31-28 04-Ntu -2' 27-17 03-NTU -18' 44-23...SR: North Texas 7-3)

   *ARKANSAS STATE 17 - Middle Tennessee St. 16--In this critical battle for 1st-place in Sun Belt, side with home-loving Arkansas State (perfect 8-0 SU last 1+Ys in Jonesboro), which should finally reach paydirt (off 2 straight shutouts) vs. MTS defense that gave up 370 yds. vs. offensively-challenged Florida Atlantic. Normally-productive Indians RB Arnold & Wilkerson get back on track after being derailed at Auburn week ago.

   (05-MTSU 45-Ark. St. 7...M.21-16 A.35/146 M.43/146 M.18/28/1/266 A.16/28/1/119 M.0 A.0)

   (05-MTS -5 45-7 04-MTS -6' 45-17 04-Mts -6 24-14...SR: Middle Tenn. St. 6-1)

   *FLORIDA INTL. 24 - Louisiana-Monroe 20--Only win among these two TY was Monroe's 24-6 season-opening victory over Alcorn State. On the plus side for FIU are sr. QB Padrick and return of several well-rested players suspended after the Golden Panthers' brawl Oct. 14 in Miami.

   (05-Fiu 31-LA.-MON. 29...L.29-17 L.31/100 F.25/60 L.32/49/1/384 F.21/35/0/235 F.1 L.2)

   (05-Fiu +10 31-29 04-ULM -9' 28-20...SR: EVEN 1-1)

   COLLEGE KEY RELEASES

   VIRGINIA TECH by 38 over Kent State

   TEXAS A&M by 11 over Nebraska

   ALABAMA Plus over Lsu

   NOTRE DAME by 22 over Air Force

   

   posted by phantom

   Nov. 6 2006 8:14pm
5. 0 likes

   Confidential Kick-Off!! The Gold Sheet!!

   11 OHIO STATE over *Northwestern

   Late Score Forecast:

   OHIO STATE 42 - *Northwestern 6

   Last week's results serve to set up a concentrated effort from top-ranked

   Ohio State. The Buckeyes were anything but intense in 17-10 win at Illinois

   last Saturday, gaining a season-low 224 yards of total offense while allowing

   an opponent to score in double figures for only the third time this season.

   Conversely, Northwestern's upset as a 20-point underdog at Iowa will put the

   Buckeyes on guard. The Wildcat defense has had two straight solid

   performances, but can't forget this is the bunch that blew a 35-point

   2nd-half lead to Michigan State and yielded 31 points or more to 6 of first

   8 foes this season. OSU had its "look-ahead" lackluster performance last

   week, and Buckeye coaching staff will use that game as a whip to prepare

   their charges for a workmanlike destruction of Northwestern that will set up

   the showdown with No. 2 Michigan next week.

   10 *SOUTHERN CAL over Oregon

   Late Score Forecast:

   *SOUTHERN CAL 36 - Oregon 17

   Acknowledge that USC's offense this year not as dynamic as the

   Bush/Leinart-fueled attacks of recent seasons. But rumors of Trojans' demise

   have been much exaggerated. USC still controls its own destiny in race for

   Pac-10 title after bouncing back from upset at Oregon State (its first conf.

   loss since early 2003!) with impressive 42-0 win at Stanford. Trojans

   returned to their opportunistic ways last week, getting 3 takeaways against

   Cardinal. So, no surprise if active front 7 forces erratic Oregon QB Dennis

   Dixon (5 ints. in last 2 road games, both double-digit losses) into some

   mistakes. And, with A-A soph Dwayne Jarrett finally back to 100% after

   lingering shoulder injury, stacked USC WR corps is as healthy as it's been in

   several weeks. Eagerly seize chance to lay reasonable (cheap?) price with

   Trojans at Coliseum, where they last tasted defeat in early 2001!

   10 PURDUE over *Illinois

   Late Score Forecast:

   PURDUE 24- *Illinois 14

   Savvy Big Ten scouts believe oddsmakers overreacting to Illinois' competitive

   17-10 home loss to emotionally flat Ohio State last week by posting the 2-8

   squad as any kind of favorite. Sure, Zook's defense no longer a pushover in

   '06. But Illini have only beaten one Div. I-A squad with winning record in

   last 1+ seasons (huge comeback OT win vs. Rutgers LY)! And remember,

   Illini's 23-20 upset at Michigan State was somewhat tainted, since sagging

   Spartans were missing star WR Trannon & lost top RB Ringer to injury after

   just one carry. Doubt either unrefined true frosh QB "Juice" Williams (42%,

   9 TDs, 8 ints.) or vet journeyman Brasic sustains many drives vs. jelling

   Purdue defense that's yielding only 16 ppg last 4 games. And now that

   Boilers accurate 6-4 triggerman Painter (60%, 15 TDs; 21 of 30 for 286 last

   week) & quality WRs are back on the same page, Boilers run record to 7-4.

   10 *KENTUCKY over Vanderbilt

   Late Score Forecast:

   *KENTUCKY 37 - Vanderbilt 23

   SEC scouts advise that these two might be headed in opposite directions after

   disparate early-season results. Vandy covered its first 3 games, then won 3

   of next 4 SU, its season hitting a crescendo in upset win at Georgia October

   14. But with injuries robbing offense of key pieces up front, Commodores

   have started to stumble down stretch. Kentucky, on the other hand, is

   starting to rise after hitting a low point on October 14, rallying for 2

   straight wins following 49-0 loss at LSU. Now, Wildcats need just 1 more

   victory to be eligible for their first bowl game since 1999. And potent UK

   should easily outdistance depleted Vandy attack. Blossoming jr. QB Andre

   Woodson has thrown 5 TDP in last 2 games, 4 of those to speedy jr. WR Keenan

   Burton. And stiffening Wildcat defense has snagged 7 takeaways during same

   span. UK has won & covered 4 of last 5 in series.

   10 GREEN BAY over *Minnesota

   Late Score Forecast:

   GREEN BAY 21 - *Minnesota 16

   (Sunday, November 12)

   Packers came very close to upsetting the Bills last week in Buffalo,

   out-gaining the Bills 427 to 184, with a couple of fortuitous interceptions

   (one tipped) saving the day for the offensively-challenged Bills. Those were

   not rash throws by Bret Favre, who has been convinced by young HC and friend

   Mike McCarthy to take far fewer risks TY, with Favre having only 5 picks

   going into that game. And G.B.'s young, aggressive OL has helped the Pack

   produce a 100-yard rusher in 4 straight games. The limited Minnesota offense

   has generated only 8 TDs in 8 games, while the rebuilt Packer defense (among

   the leaders with 27 sacks!) is becoming a tougher nut to crack, with DE

   Kampman (9.5 sacks), speedy young LBs Hawk & Barnett, and free-agent S

   Marquand Manuel solidifying things.

   TOTALS: UNDER (39.5) in G.B.-Minnesota game-Vikes' defense, plus struggling

   offense has produced only 2 "overs" in Minny games TY. OVER (43) in

   Dallas-Arizona game-Teams have combined for 10-4-2 "over" mark TY; indoor

   setting helps.

   HONORABLE MENTION (Nine-Rated Games): NAVY (-13) at Eastern Michigan (at Ford

   Field)-Middies found their ground game again at Duke with 435 YR; HC P.

   Johnson won't hesitate to go on fourth & short indoors vs. EMU's smallish

   defense. SMU (+5) vs. Houston-Mustangs now have quality firepower thanks to

   RS frosh QB Willis (22 TDP); will become bowl-eligible (!) with a victory.

   SAN JOSE STATE (+13) vs. Boise State-Improved San Jose is 4-0 SU at home TY

   and has covered last two vs. Broncos; Boise's offense slows down on road.

   LA.-LAFAYETTE (-11) vs. North Texas-Ragin' Cajuns can grab bowl-needed sixth

   win with victory; ground game should dominate at home vs. poor-travelin' Mean

   Green...NEW ENGLAND (-11) vs. N.Y. Jets-Belichick, Brady eliminate last

   week's tipped interceptions; Pats 10-1 last 11 vs. spread after a

   regular-season loss.

   

   posted by phantom

   Nov. 7 2006 1:48pm
6. 0 likes

   Pointwise Ratings 1-5 with 1* being the best

   1 Mich St

   1 Hawaii

   2 Okl st

   3 BYU

   3 Nevada

   4 San Jose ST

   5 Oregon

   5 Navy

   2 Atl

   3 Phil

   4 Pitt

   4 St Louis

   5 Det

   

   posted by phantom

   Nov. 7 2006 1:51pm
7. 0 likes

   Red Sheet

   --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

   Ratings: 89 & Above: Superior Play

   88 & Below: Above Average Play

   Navy = 89

   Nevada = 89

   Virginia Tech = 88

   Texas A&M = 88

   Hawaii = 88

   Jacksonville ( Pro) = 88

   

   posted by phantom

   Nov. 9 2006 1:36pm
8. 0 likes

   POWER SWEEP

   KEY SELECTIONS

   4* NEW ENGLAND over NY Jets - NE advanced to 8-1-1 ATS vs the Jets after defeating them 24-17 as a 6 pt AF in the 1st Mangini Bowl. NE led 24-0 halfway thru the 3Q but NYJ scored 17 unanswered pts with a no huddle offense & 2 TO’s by Brady which setup 2 TD’s. NE is 12-5-1 ATS hosting a div foe. NYJ are 4-14-2 ATS as an AD (2-2 TY). NE is 15-2 SU & 13-4 ATS vs a QB the 2nd time around & Mangini made the mistake of needling the Pats’ inability to put his team away a month after the game. This has NE’s #12 & #11 units vs NYJ’s #22 & #31 units prior to SNF. The Jets 4 wins have all come against 4 teams that are 2-6 each. In the other 4 games they have been outFD 21-16 & outgained 322-257 & the Jets have allowed 143 ypg rushing (4.3) so far TY. In the 4 games prior to LW’s Sun Nighter NE has used the Dillon & Maroney combo to outrush foes 124 (4.2) to 63 (3.2) & the NE pass D has been lights out with an 0-7 ratio & the team is +8 on TO’s. While Mangini has made the most out of the Jets roster he doesn’t have the talent or momentum the Patriots have who are the play here. FORECAST: NEW ENGLAND 31 NY Jets 10

   3* Baltimore over TENNESSEE - McNair finally gets to face his former team (traded late in the offseason to make it as difficult as possible to sign on another tm). LY TEN beat BAL 25-10 as a 3.5 pt HD as BAL went 3 & out on 6 of their 1st 7 drives & didn’t get a 1st Dn until the 3Q. TEN had a 290-182 yd edge & held BAL to 14 yds rushing. TEN is 2-5 ATS hosting a team w/a winning record. The Titans have used the ground game the L4W (157 ypg 4. to try to control the clock, rest the D & not put Young in a position to make mistakes. However, they now face the Ravens #3 defense which is only allowing 69 ypg (2.9) so far & a monster pass defense allowing 224 ypg (54%) with a 9-17 ratio which has returned 3 int’s for TD’s in the L2W. The TEN def is allowing 163 ypg (4.9) rushing & Billick is focusing on the run now that he’s taken the offense over (133 ypg 3.5 L2W). Look for McNair to utilize his favorite target WR Mason (31 rec 12. who was with him at TEN to get even with the Titans & school Young who threw 3 int’s LW to set up 17 pts. FORECAST: Baltimore 21 TENNESSEE 6

   OTHER SELECTIONS

   2* PHILADELPHIA over Washington - WAS has covered 3 straight vs PHI including a 3'* LPS winner in LY’s season finale beating the depleted Eagles 31-20 as a 7.5 pt AF & were +5 in TO’s. PHI returns from their bye (11-6 ATS) & are 1-5 ATS as a div fav. This game has the PHI #9 & #11 units over the L4W vs the WAS #25 & #31 units in that span. PHI returns from the bye after blowing a 2 game lead in the NFC East with all 4 losses being by less than a TD. McNabb has consistently put up solid numbers this year passing for 289 yds (59%) with a 16-5 ratio (97.3 QBR) will get to take on WAS’s #30 pass defense that is allowing 250 ypg (61%) with a very poor 16-2 ratio. WAS has only made an int in 2 games TY & the D has only forced a TO in 3 games overall. WAS is 28th in the NFL in sacks with 13 & McNabb is mobile enough & will have a healthy offense with Westbrook having 2 weeks to rest his knee & Stallworth being 100% with his hamstring. PHI snaps their 3 game losing streak with a confidence building win vs a div foe. FORECAST: PHILADELPHIA 27 Washington 10

   2* Green Bay (+) over MINNESOTA - GB is 2-8 ATS vs MIN who won both meetings by 3 pts LY. GB is 1-6-1 ATS in div play while MIN is 7-1 ATS in div play & 8-1 ATS as a HF. GB comes in a bit underrated & has the #6 & #12 units over the L4W vs MIN’s #20 & #6 units. GB’s young OL has settled into the zone-blocking schemes & after avg 81 ypg (3.3) rushing in the 1st 4 gms have avg 157 ypg (5.1). The OL as a whole has been impressive in pass protection allowing 11 sacks (3rd) though Favre’s ability to dump the ball has helped. GB also catches MIN at a good time as WR Robinson (13 rec 15.4) has missed the L2 games, both DT K Williams & P Williams are beat up & MLB Harris is out 2-3 weeks with a wrist inj. While GB’s pass D is awful allowing 268 ypg (57%) with a 13-7 ratio they are 2nd in the NFL with 27 sacks & should give the MIN OL a challenge. MIN has passed for 196 ypg (67%) with a 3-6 ratio & the WR’s had several drops LW vs SF that could have changed the flow of the game. We have gone with 4 “ugly dog playsâ€

   

   posted by phantom

   Nov. 9 2006 1:38pm
9. 0 likes

   Some NFL tidbits:

   New England has not lost back-to-back games since December 2002. That's a span of 57 games. The record is 60 by San Francisco (1995-99). The Titans and Jets beat the Patriots in Weeks 15 and 16 in 2002. The Patriots will play host to the Jets this weekend.

   The Eagles under Andy Reid have never lost a game that followed a bye week (7-0). Philadelphia was off in Week 9 and will play host to Washington this week.

   If the Colts defeat the Bills this weekend, they will become the first team in NFL history to have back-to-back 9-0 starts.

   Washington became the first team in NFL history to score exactly 22 points in three consecutive games (Dallas, Tennessee, Indianapolis).

   The Browns were the only team in Week 9 to lead at halftime and lose.

   

   posted by phantom

   Nov. 9 2006 1:41pm
10. 0 likes

    My Picks

    Jax-6 1/2 1st Half..........................$2000.00

    Kc-1/2 1st Half..............................$2000.00

    Wash +7..........................................$700.00

    N.o. +4............................................$400.00

    Stl +3 1/2........................................$700.00

    Tb +9 1/2..........................................$600.00

    3 Team Teaser 10 Points

    Tb +19 1/2

    Was +17

    kc +9................................................$600.00

    Jax Over 37 1/2..................................$400.00

    Two Cfb

    Lsu -18.......$200

    Tcu-7 1/2....$200

    Just Playing Around With Those Two!!!

    Kc Bet

    two Key Factor

    Qb Rating Kc 105 Vs Mia 77....................= Kc

    kc Has Score 104 Points In The 1st Half

    vs

    mia 50 Points........................................=kc

    there More But Those Are The Key Ones

    jax Bet

    jax Has Score 89 Points In The 1st Half

    vs

    hou 42 Points.........................................=jax

    d-line For Jax Will Keep Them From Scoring!!!

    at The Late Games There Could Be Two Bets On The 2nd Half Of Those Games....i Will Watch The 1st Half Of Both Those Games And Try To Jump In On The 2nd Half...could Be A $2k Bet With The Edge I See!

    stay Tune

    best To All

    ACE-ACE

    

    posted by phantom

    Nov. 9 2006 9:50pm
11. 0 likes

    Monday, November 13

    Carolina Panthers -10 (50 Units) ***MONDAY NIGHT PLAY OF THE YEAR***

    I have not had a losing week in the NFL since way back in the early weeks of the season but I am putting that on the line for this Monday Nighter. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers were on quite the roll after beating the Eagles and Bengals both at home but the reality of things is that they really lost the game to McNabb and the Eagles and they really lost the game against Cincinnati. I mean kicking a 62 yard FG to win a game is always nice but it's also lucky and the chances of that ever happening again are slim to none. In the Cincinnati game, a freak pass and catch at the end regulation gave the Bucs the touchdown and the win after being down 13-7 with :01 remaining on the clock. So in other words, if the play is not reviewed and reversed, the Bucs lose that game as well and once again this is a case where a play like that will only happen once in a blue moon. The reality of it is that Tampa Bay is an 0-8 caliber team. They are 2-6 on the season, their playoff hopes are gonzo and they don't have much to play for but pride. In the first meeting in Tampa, the Bucs had hope and they were playing for their first win of the season although they lost by two. With all the injuries on defense and with a sleeping giant about to wakeup in the Carolina offense, the Bucs are in big time trouble in this game. Apart from their trip to the indoor confines of New Orleans, the Bucs have scored a total of six points in two road games. Tampa Bay is averaging 13.3 points per game in their last three games on a pathetic 198.7 total yards per game and 3.6 yards per play. THAT IS UNREAL! The Panthers defense is allowing 24.3 points per game in their last three but they are coming off a BYE week and their new season starts today. Up to this point they have not played Panther-like defense in the second half of games but that's all about to change. On the ground, RB Cadillac Williams had a monster game here last season but the Bucs average only 73.0 rushing yards per game in their last three and Carolina allows only 3.9 yards per carry in their last three. Williams could have success but playing from behind won't work at all and the honus will be on rookie QB Bruce Gradkowski. I have always aid that Gradkowski is a Tom Brady-esque QB who doesn't show signs of the transition between college and the pros. However, every QB has to play his first Monday Nighter and this is his first Monday Nighter of his career. Check that, this is also Cadillac Williams first Monday Nighter ever. This is actually both their first televised night games as well. Gradkowskis is completing only 48.6% of his passes the last three games for only 3.6 yards per pass attempt. Gradkowski has been sacked 8 times in three games but has yet to throw interceptions. Well the Carolina defense has been resting since October 29 and they are ready to show signs of the old Carolina D. They had three interceptions in three games before the break and recorded 7 sacks in those games. The Bucs have been horrendous in third down situations, converting only 25.0% of them in the last three games and I don't see that changing with the Monday Night Lights shining bright. The Bucs are done for the season and with first time monday nighters in Gradkowski and Williams, the Panthers should have no problems holding them to no points at all.

    The Carolina Panthers are doing what they have been doing the last few years and that is sucking their first eight games of the season. They are currently 4-4 on the year and although that's not considered to be all that bad, this is the time of the year where the Panthers always turn on the engines, finish something like 10-6 on the year and make people wonder where they have been all year. They were 5-3 in the second half of the season last year and 6-2 the year before in their last eight games of the year. I would like to think that at this point in the season, both the offense and defense have greatly underachieved and I doubt that any member of either side is quite happy with the way they have played to start the year. Having had the bye week to recover from all that has happened to the team, including an embarassing Sunday Night loss to the Cowboys right before the week off, the Panthers have been anxious to get out on the field and show that they are no doubt a playoff caliber team. Taking a look back at what they have done, they did beat Baltimore in Baltimore and prior to losing their two games before the break, they had won four straight games against the Bucs, Ravens, Saints and Browns. All I know is that the Panthers are a team that responds well to adversity and this could be one huge game for them against a Bucs team that is showing no signs of life. The Panthers have struggled badly on offense all season long but it's time for this powerfu offense to breakout of it's shell. The Panthers average only 17.0 points per game in their last three games and average only 298.3 total yards per game in those games. However, Tampa Bay's defense is badly banged up and allowing 23.0 points per game in their last three games for 373.3 total yards and 5.7 yards per play. The key to this game? Tampa Bay will be without starting DT Ellis Wyms, starting MLB Shelton Quarles and starting DE Simeon Rice. Doesn't sound like much. Well the Bucs have 12 sacks on the season and Rice and Wyms have 6 of those sacks. Quarles leaves a massive gap up the middle because he is third on the team with 55 tackles and he is a big part of the second line that meets opposing RB's. On the ground, RB Deshaun Foster has struggled but there is now the dual threat of DeAngelo Williams as well. The Panthers average 106.8 rushing yards per home game on 4.7 yards per carry and get to face a depleted Bucs defense allowing 185.7 rushing yards per road game on 5.3 yards per carry. Williams and Foster should each rush for 50+ yards and there is a strong chance of Williams hitting the 100 mark for the first time in his career. In the air, QB Jake Delhomme has been so-so to start the year completing 58.9% of his passes for 6.4 yards per pass attempt. Not that great. However, did you know that throughout his career, Delhomme has a QB Rating of only 81.1 through games 1 to 8 completing 51.8% of his passes for 7.0 yards per pass attempt and 30 INT's? However, throughout games 9 to 16, Delhomme has a career QB Rating of 90.0 with a 61.0% completion rate, 7.7 yards per pass attempt and only 22 INT's. In their last three games this season, the Tampa Bay defense has allowed opposing QB's to complete a whopping 63.3% of their passes for 7.7 yards per pass attempt. They generate almost no pressure on opposing QB's (3 sacks in their last three games) and they won't get any sacks tonight with Rice and Syms both out. As long as Delhomme can stay away from making stupid throws (which I clearly think he can), the Panthers should have problems scoring point after point after point. Tampa's last three opponents have converted 45.2% of third down chances and are allowing other teams to score touchdowns 66.7% of the time from inside the red zone. This is a great chance for the Panthers to get their offense in gear for the remainder of the season and they should have no problems doing it against this depleted but already shitty Tampa Bay defense. Panthers steamroll these clowns.

    I was almost sure that the public would be pounding the Panthers in this game but it doesn't look that way. It looks more like the public is leaning to the Panthers but they all have doubts and a lot of people are taking the Bucs and the points. Well for those of you who haven't watched NFL games in the past, let me tell you that from Games 1-8 of the season, the Panthers are garbage and are fade material. However, come games 9-16, Jake Delhomme is one of the best QB's in the NFL and the Panthers are one of the best second half of the season teams. Did I mention that Tampa allows 5.3 yards per carry on the road and their starting MLB is out tonight? Watch and learn what I am talking about tonight. Don't be fooled by the Panthers early struggles because the BYE week gave them a new lease on life. PLAY OF THE YEAR for Monday Nights.

    Trend of the Game: Carolina is 5-1 ATS the last six games that follow a double digit loss at home.

    Carolina 37, Tampa Bay 7

    

    posted by phantom

    Nov. 13 2006 3:22pm
12. 0 likes

    Ppp

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    2%Tampa and Over

    __________________

    John Fina (Winning Ways)

    (Went 9-1)

    NFL - 2.5 units on Tampa Bay Buccaneers +10.5 (-115)

    ***

    Tampa Bay AT Carolina Game Notes:

    2 Key NEVER LOST Winning Angles...

    NL Winning Angle #1: Play AGAINST

    NFL Monday Night favorites or underdogs of more then 7 points when

    playing with rest off a loss of more then 3 points. This Key Angle is a

    Perfect 12-0 Against the Spread (since 1980).

    NL Winning Angle #2: Play ON the Tampa Bay Buccaneers after gaining 99

    or less rushing yards in 2 straight games. This Key Angle is a Perfect

    6-0 Against the Spread (over the last 2 seasons).

    SPORTSBOOK EMAIL BLAST

    Midway through the season the Panthers are a disappointing 4-4. ATS, they are even a more disappointing 1-5-2. As a dog, the Bucs are 4-2 ATS and 3-0 ATS when coming off two or more consecutive loses. Neither team puts a lot of points on the board averaging a combined 29.9 PPG. With the Panthers' covering woes coupled with the fact that this most likely will be a low scoring contest, it shouldn't come as a surprise that almost 60% of the early money is taking the Bucs +9.5.

    Brandon Lang

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    MONDAY

    30 DIME

    Carolina Panthers

    Larry Ness Premium Subscription

    Larry Ness' 15* NFC South Game of the Month

    The Panthers have been shut out in the second halves of each of their last two games, dropping contests to both the Bengals and Cowboys. One of the NFC favorites TY, the Panthers enter this game just 4-4. The Bucs are 2-6, the worst eight-game start of Jon Gruden's nine-year coaching career. These teams met in Week 3, with Carolina jumping out to a 17-0 lead but then needing a 46-yard FG to win with no time left on the clock. Chris Simms was KO'd in that game with a ruptured spleen (out for the year). Rookie QB Bruce Gradkowski has looked better than the more heralded duo of Vince Young and Matt Leinart this year. He has six TDPs and just one INT in 186 attempts and the Bucs have not lost much of anything at the QB position. The defense is banged up though, as CB Kelly is out (maybe his replacement as well) plus top pass rusher Rice and MLB Quarles are questionable. The Panthers have been a disappointment defensively this year as well, not getting near enough pressure on the QB, a staple of John Fox's defenses in the past. Delhomme is passing for about the same amount of yards TY but he has just eight TDPs through eight games, far below what he did LY (had 24!). Smith missed the first two games but has been excellent since returning, as he's the lone receiver in the NFL averaging over 100 YPG receiving (105.2). Keyshawn has also had a nice year (37) but his "drop" vs Dallas was HUGE. While the Panthers have always been a poor pointspread team at home, tonight's situation is different. The Panthers had a GREAT day yesterday, as the Saints lost in Pittsburgh and the Falcons also lost at home to the Browns. Carolina gets right back in the NFC South race with a win here and while Tampa will try hard, Carolina is long overdue (four wins are by a combined 15 points!) for a breakout win. NFC South Game of the Month 15* Car Panthers.

    BOB HARVEY SPORTS

    Monday, 11/13 Selections

    College Hoops

    3-Unit Play, #773 Notre Dame -3 over Butler (Monday, 11/13 6 pm).

    Notre Dame unveiled a new look Friday night and it looked good.

    Rob Kurz, Zach Hillesland and Luke Harangody provided some quickness, and the Irish were more active on the defensive end. The combination led to an easy 92-49, season-opening win over Indiana-Purdue-Ft. Wayne in South Bend, Ind.

    Tonight, the Fighting Irish battle Butler in the opener of the NIT Season Tip-Off. Look for another strong effort tonight from ND.

    NBA

    3-Unit Play Take # 703 Seattle Sonics +4 1/2 over New Jersey Nets (Monday, 11/13, 7:35 pm).

    Seattle wraps up a five-game road trip tonight and their backers hope the Sonics, who have covered the spread in five straight games, can do it again. Especially impressive is Seattle's road play which has seen them cash in in their last four away from the great northwest.

    On the flip side, The Nets played a hard fought game in Washington on Sunday and will be playing their third game in four nights.

    Take the Sonics plus the Points against New Jersey.

    Monday Night FootbalL--Take Carolina -9 1/2 ocer Tampa Bay and a 1-unit play on the UNIT.

    Big Al Mcmordie

    Carolina panthers

    __________________

    Lenny Stevens

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    10* Tb

    10* Under

    __________________

    Info Plays

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    NFL

    10* on Panthers -9.5

    Gary Meyers

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    a good record so far

    73-49

    Bucs + 9 1/2

    __________________

    Bob Balfe/sunday Selections

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Tampa Bay/Carolina Under 37

    The Bucs will have a tough time running the ball tonight and their rookie QB will get pressured a lot by the Panther front four. Carolina should have some trouble tonight against Tampa's Defense due to the fact that their center is out. The center position is the most overlooked in football. All it takes is a millisecond for the whole offensive timing and patterns to be off. To be honest this is the only reason I did not take the Panthers tonight. Look for a low scoring game. Take the Under.

    __________________

    

    posted by phantom

    Nov. 13 2006 3:30pm
13. 0 likes

    Rockys Totals

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Tampa Bay - Carolina Under 37

    __________________

    Dr. Bob

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Tampa Bay (+9.5) 16 CAROLINA 21

    13-Nov-06 05:30 PM Pacific Time

    The Carolina Panthers have a strong tendency to play close games and they have been a great bet as an underdog and a bad bet as a big favorite. Carolina is now 6-16-1 ATS under coach John Fox when favored by 4 points or more, including 0-3-1 ATS this season, and the Panthers apply to a very negative 5-53-1 ATS situation that is 0-29 ATS in divisional games (and 0-5 ATS if the team is off a bye week, in case you were wondering). The problem is that a lot of situations don’t work as well on Monday night and that 5-53-1 ATS angle is 2-1 ATS for teams playing on Monday night (0-0 Division). It’s tough to say whether that is just random variance or not, but it’s enough to keep me off the Bucs as a Best Bet given my experience with angles applying on Monday night (unless they are Monday specific situations). My math model favors Carolina by 10 ½ points, but the Panthers’s victories this season have been by margins of 2, 3, 8, and 2 points – so winning by a big margin is not something that they are likely to do. I’ll consider Tampa Bay a Strong Opinion in this game at +9 points or more

    Power Sweep

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Tampa Bay at CAROLINA - CAR escaped with a narrow 26-24 win in the 1st meeting but failed to cover as a 3.5 pt AF as the dog moved to 6-1 ATS in the series. TB’s defense forced 3 fmbl that were converted into 17 pts & CAR needed 4 FG’s of 45+ yds to get the win as they had \22-13 FD & 350-209 yd edges. The Bucs are looking at this as a playoff game & are basically reduced to the role of spoilers while CAR hasn’t lived up to their hype & are 6-18-1 ATS as a HF but Fox was livid after the DAL loss & needs this game to keep pace with ATL & NO.

    __________________

    Steam Sheet

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Carolina over Tampa Bay by 9

    Since we took Tampa Bay last week and we're not taking them

    this week, I suppose you better get some Bucs on your Sunday

    ticket. Carolina is a putrid home favorite and there is a strong

    angle supporting the Florida Folk. Another take.

    __________________

    Gold Sheet

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    0-4 yesterday on his key plays

    tampa to cover

    car 23-17

    __________________

    Marc Lawrence Angle of the week

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    PLAY AGAINST any rested

    NFL Monday Night favorite

    of > 3 points if they lost

    SU in their last game.

    PLAY AGAINST:

    CAROLINA PANTHERS

    __________________

    Sports Reporters

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    *CAROLINA over TAMPA BAY by 9

    Next to the Seattle hype heap and possibly Philly, the Panthers are next in line for Faker of

    the Year in the NFL. Overrated running game, overrated run defense, injuries taking a toll all

    over that defense. However, the bye week helps the injury situation and this is the kind of

    match-up situation encountered often during the run they made to the NFC Championship

    Game a year ago – rookie quarterback on the other side, limited in what he can accomplish.

    Also, that on-again, off-again Panthers’ rushing attack can be on-again vs. the run-bluffers

    on the Tampa Bay defense, where they hope and pray that the opposing offensive coordinator

    calls plenty o’ passes they might be able to pick, and thereby avoid moving constantly

    backwards while absorbing a 34-minute pounding. The Panthers have some playmakers and

    their quarterback – another overration – does know how to get them the ball sometimes.

    That rookie RB DeAngelo Williams might be ready to bust a long gainer for them on the return

    team. CAROLINA, 23-14.

    __________________

    winning points

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    *Carolina over Tampa Bay by 11 (Monday)

    If rookie Marques Colston and reserve Devery Henderson combine for 234

    receiving yards and three touchdowns against the Buccaneers, it’s mindboggling

    to think of the numbers Steve Smith and Keyshawn Johnson can

    put up.Tampa Bay’s offense has failed to score in half of its eight games.The

    Bucs’ aging defense no longer is strong enough to compensate. The Bucs

    are 1-4 ATS the past five at Carolina. Bucs rookie quarterback Bruce

    Gradkowski didn’t play bad last week against New Orleans, but has struggled

    in previous weeks as defensive coordinators study more NFL film on

    him.The Panthers miss Dan Morgan at linebacker.They also are notoriously

    bad in a big favorite’s role, going 4-11-1 ATS laying six or more points.

    CAROLINA 24-13.

    __________________

    Red Sheet ( Near Choice)

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Panthers

    __________________

    Joey Gaffney

    Carolina Panthers 7*

    __________________

    pointwise phones

    1 carolina

    __________________

    

    posted by phantom

    Nov. 13 2006 3:33pm
14. 0 likes

    A PLAY 2 (0-1) (0-1) (4-4) pass

    ANIMAL 4 (5* 0-1) (1-1) (4-4) 4 CAROLINA

    ATS 4 (3-4) 4 carolina

    BEN BURNS 1 (2-1) (2-1) (0-2) TOTAL OF MONTH UNDER

    BIG AL 2 (1-1) (1-4) CAROLINA

    BILL BAILEY 5 (3-5) 50- under

    BANKER 3 (0-1) (5-3) 300 carolina

    BLAZER 3 (3-1) under

    BRANDON LANG 2 (0-1) (5-3) (1-0) 30 CAROLINA

    CASH 1 (0-2) (4-3) TAMPA BAY

    COACHES CORNER 1 (3-6) under

    COMPUSPORTS 1 (2-4) tampa bay

    COWTOWN 3 (3-1) 1 tampa bay

    COMPUTER KIDS 1 (2-6) under

    DAVE COKIN 2 (2-1) (5-3) UNDER , tampa bay

    DOLPHIN 3 (4-5) 3 tampa bay

    DIAMOND STAR 3 (2-0) (2-2) (1-1) 2 over

    DIRECTOR SPORTS 2 (0-1) (1-1) (4-2) OVER, carolina

    DOC ENTERPRISES 3 (0-2) (5-2) pass

    DOCTOR BOB 2 (0-1) (0-1) OPINION tampa bay

    DOCTOR D 4 (2-3) 2 tampa bay

    EXECUTIVE 5 (3-1) pass

    EXPERT 1 (2-5) tampa bay

    FAB FOUR PICKS 1 (0-1) (5-3) over

    FINAL SCORE 1 (5-5) tampa bay

    GAME DAY 3 (1-2) pass

    GAME PLAN 5 (4-4) carolina

    GARDEN STATE 3 (3-5) tampa bay

    GOLD SHEET 3 (0-1) pass

    GUARANTEED 2 (1-1) pass

    INSIDERS EDGE 4 (40* 3-2) (2-2) 40* OVER

    INSIDE STEAM 3 (2-3) (2-2) MONDAY GOM TAMPA BAY

    INSIDE INFO 5 (4-4) 1 carolina

    JB SPORTS 2 (1-0) (4-0) carolina

    JIM FEIST 2 (2-2) (1-1) (6-3) 5* tampa bay

    KELSO STURGEON 5 (1-0) (2-1) (3-10) 10 CAROLINA - 3 over

    LENNY STEVENS 2 (1-0) (10-7) 10* tampa and under

    LT PROFITS 5 (3-4) 2 under

    LV INSIDERS 3 (400* 4-1) (1-2) 400 OVER

    LV LOCKLINE 3 (50* 0-1) (4-4) 25 carolina

    LV SPORTS 2 (1-1) pass

    MAGLIOSA 2 (3-2) pass

    MAXWELL 1 (2-3) pass

    MIKE NERI 5 (2-1) 2 tampa - 2 over

    MILLIONAIRES 3 (1-0) pass

    NORTHCOAST 2 (4-5) 2 tampa - OPINION under

    NY SPORTS 3 (5-4) 7 over

    OVER AND UNDER 4 (0-1) (2-5) under

    POINTWISE 2 (5-4) carolina

    POINTSPREAD MAVEN 3 (1-0) (5-3) 10 OVER

    POWER PLAYS 1 (2-0) (2-3) tampa bay

    PLATINUM 4 (0-1) (0-1) pass

    PREFERRED PICKS 4 (1-0) (1-2) OPINION tampa bay

    PRIMETIME 5 (5-2) (0-1) (0-1) MONDAY GOM CAROLINA

    PRIVATE INVESTORS 1 (4-6) tampa bay

    PRIVATE PLAYERS OF PITT 1 (7-10) 2 tampa bay 2 over

    PROBABILITY 4 (0-1) pass

    RAIDER 1 (0-1) (3-1) pass

    RANDY RATDKE 5 (2-2) pass

    REED HARRIS 1 (2-2) (3-2) TAMPA BAY

    SCORE 3 (5-4) 200 tampa bay

    SCOTT SPREITZER 2 (1-2) (1-0) (1-4) UNDER

    SILVER STAR 5 (2-6) 6 tampa bay

    SLAM DUNK 1 (2-2) (3-3) tampa bay

    SOLID GOLD PICK 1 (1-3) pass

    SPORTS GURU 3 (40* 0-1) (2-1) (1-4) 30 TAMPA BAY

    SPORTS ANALYST 1 (1-0) (2-3) pass

    SPORTS AUTHORITY 5 (3-2) (4-0) tampa bay

    SPORTS BANK 5 (400* 3-4) (2-0) 400 TAMPA BAY

    SPORTS DOCTOR 3 (6-3) 75 carolina

    SPORTS INVESTORS 3 (9* 4-3) (1-1) 8 TAMPA BAY

    SPORTS NETWORK 1 (0-1) (3-4) TAMPA BAY

    SPORT TRENDS 1 (5-5) tampa bay

    SPORTS UNLIMITED 5 (4* 1-5) 3 under

    STATISTICIAN 1 (0-1) (0-1) (2-3) 90 TAMPA - 80 over

    SUPER LOCK 1 (4-5) TAMPA BAY

    SUPER SYSTEMS 1 (4-5) TAMPA BAY

    SWAMI 1 (10-3) carolina and under

    SYCAMORE 3 (2-2) tampa bay

    TD CLUB 5 (0-1) (1-3) 5 tampa bay

    THE INSIDER 1 (3-5) pass

    TIPPS 1 (3-2) (3-2) TAMPA BAY

    TOMMY THUNDER 3 (4-5) 6 tampa bay

    TONY WRIGHT 5 (3-6) 3 carolina

    TOP DAWG 1 (2-4) tampa bay

    TRU-LINE 1 (0-1) (2-2) pass

    UNDERDOG 5 pass

    UNIVERSAL 1 (4-5) tampa bay

    USA SPORTS 1 (4-5) under

    VEGAS CONNECTION 3 (0-4) (1-4) MONDAY GOY TAMPA BAY

    VEGAS PIPELINE 1 (2-1) (3-3) TAMPA BAY

    WAYNE ROOT 2 (1-1) (4-5) CHAIRMAN carolina

    WILDCAT 5 (7* 2-0) 5 over

    WINDY CITY 3 (1-0) (9* 2-4) (2-0) 9 TAMPA BAY

    WINNERS PATH 2 (0-1) (2-2) carolina

    WISE GUYS 3 (4-6) UNDER

    WIZARD 1 (0-1) (4-2) TAMPA BAY

    FRIENDS OF MIKE LEE 3 (0-1) (2-2) pass

    LARRY NESS 2 (0-2) (6-1) CAROLINA

    HILTON CONTEST 2 (0-1) (2-2) pass

    BOB BALFE 2 (5-3) under

    MARC LAWRENCE 2 NEVER LOST SUPER PLAY - TAMPA BAY

    CHIP CHRIMBES 2 under

    NORM HITZGES 2 CAROLINA

    CAPPERS ACCESS 2 carolina

    WINNING POINTS 3 5 carolina

    DEREK SHARP 3 carolina and under

    NEVADA SPORTS PICKS 3 carolina and under

    RENO 3 5* UNDER

    

    posted by phantom

    Nov. 13 2006 7:49pm