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THE GOLD SHEET
SUNDAY, NOVEMBER 5
ST. LOUIS 34 - Kansas City 20--Rams have eked out 3 covers in 3 home games TY. And even though help is on the way for Chiefs (QB Trent Green & RT John Welbourn getting ready to return), it is not expected to arrive for this game. With St. Louis +10 in TOs under Scott Linehan and successfully ending its turnover margin woes, Steven Jackson (605 YR) and WRs Torry Holt (42 recs.) & Isaac Bruce (32) should outdistance their respected K.C. counterparts.
(2006 Preseason: Kansas City -3' beat St. Louis 16-12 at Kansas City)
(02-KANSAS CITY -4' 49-10...SR: EVEN 4-4)
Cincinnati 20 - BALTIMORE 13--Everything went swimmingly for HC Brian Billick in his re-assumption of the offensive coordinator duties. In reality, however, it was the defense that either set up or scored the vast majority of the points in Baltimore's 35-22 win in New Orleans. That unit likely to face a tougher challenge this week from veteran, balanced, road-tested Cincy, which is 12-2-1 its last 15 away. Not convinced yet that Steve McNair (17 of 23 last week) & Jamal Lewis (31 for 109 rushing at N.O.) have regained their old form.
(05-Cincy 21-BALT. 9...C.25-17 B.24/124 C.34/98 C.19/26/0/231 B.19/31/0/116 C.1 B.1)
(05-CINCY 42-Balt. 29...23-23 C.32/135 B.33/133 C.22/30/1/302 B.18/32/2/189 C.2 B.1)
(05-Cincinnati -3 21-9, CINCINNATI -9' 42-29...SR: Baltimore 12-8)
NY GIANTS 34 - Houston 10--Not ready to buck G-men (10-3 last 13 as home favorite), especially vs. rebuilding Houston defense missing DL leader and run-stopper Seth Payne. All of N.Y. 's impressive weapons contributing substantially during impressive stretch of 4 straight wins & covers vs. stronger foes than Texans. Tiki (715 YR) and bruising tag-team partner Brandon Jacobs (258) helping defense put away foes by double-digit margins. Houston defense only 1 int. TY! (02-HOUSTON +5' 16-14...SR: Houston 1-0)
JACKSONVILLE 24 - Tennessee 10--Interesting test for improving rookie QB Vince Young, as the rugged Jacksonville defense owns two shutouts in it 3 home games (allowing 6 ppg at home TY). Through Week Seven, Tennessee defense was last vs. the run and last in sacks. Not a good combo vs. strong-legged Jaguar RBs Taylor & Jones-Drew (combined 180 YR at Phillly last week) and mobile backup Jag QB Garrard (5-1 SU, 5-0-1 vs. the spread as a starter 2005-06) LY if he steps in again for Leftwich.
(05-Jack. 31-TENN. 28...J.22-16 T.21/63 J.30/49 J.22/38/0/246 T.20/30/1/191 J.1 T.0)
(05-JACK. 40-Tenn. 13...J.25-15 J.35/122 T.22/99 J.19/31/0/213 T.21/39/1/171 J.1 T.1)
(05-Jacksonville -4 31-28, JACKSONVILLE -4 40-13...SR: Tennessee 13-10)
WASHINGTON 21 - Dallas 20--With Washington's second-year QB Jason Campbell getting extra snaps during the Redskins' bye week, is it possible this could turn out to be a Romo vs. Campbell QB duel? Not so sure, as this is do or die for the 2-5 Redskins. Romo (270 YP, 1 TD, 1 int. at Car.) had a nice starting debut for Cowboys. But, remember, Clinton Portis missed first meeting with a shoulder injury. Dallas has won & covered 14 of last 17 in series, but with two of the losses LY!
(06-DAL. 27-Wash. 10...D.22-16 D.31/138 W.20/93 D.19/38/0/229 W.18/33/1/152 D.1 W.0)
(05-Wash. 14-DAL. 13...14-14 W.25/104 D.29/90 D.21/36/0/261 W.20/34/1/242 W.1 D.0)
(05-WASH. 35-Dal. 7...W.19-13 W.40/171 D.24/109 W.12/20/0/163 D.16/29/3/107 W.1 D.1)
(06-DALLAS -6' 27-10; Wash. +5' 14-13, WASH. -1' 35-7...SR: Dallas 55-36-2)
BUFFALO 20 - Green Bay 17--J.P. Losman has improved his completion percentage from 49.6% LY to 61.9% TY, but his 5 ints. & 5 fumbles the last 3 games have led to 3 SU & pointspread losses. But Bills have the quality weapons (WR Evans, RB McGahee) to hurt low-ranked G.B. pass defense if Losman keeps his poise. Packers ran well (203 YR) vs. dispirited Arizona last week at home. Those yards much tougher to gain at Orchard park.
(02-GREEN BAY -6' 10-0...SR: Buffalo 6-3)
OVER THE TOTAL TAMPA BAY 27 - New Orleans 21--Forget last week's wind-marred offensive game of the Bucs vs. the Giants. Back at home, the maturing Bruce Gradkowski (got his first start vs. the Saints; only 1 int. TY) has excellent chance to turn the tables on NFC South foe. While T.B. defense down a notch (DT McFarland traded, CB Kelly injured reserve), Saints' own defense can't hold anyone under 20, as N.O. has easily gone "over" three straight.
(06-N. ORL. 24-T. Bay 21...T.18-15 T.33/187 N.25/143 T.20/31/0/219 N.21/33/0/171 N.0 T.1)
(05-T. Bay 10-N. ORL. 3...N.16-14 T.30/133 N.27/65 N.18/34/4/214 T.12/21/0/115 T.0 N.0)
(05-T. BAY 27-N. Orl. 13...N.18-14 T.26/149 N.23/71 N.25/37/2/235 T.12/25/0/136 T.0 N.1)
(06-N. ORL. -6' 24-21; 05-T. Bay -3' 10-3 at BR, T. BAY -13' 27-13...SR: New Orleans 18-11)
Atlanta 27 - DETROIT 26--Atlanta leads the league in rushing, while Detroit shorthanded up front on defense due to the 4-game suspension of top DT, the 345-pound Shaun Rogers. And dome conditions accentuate speed of Michael Vick (7 TDP last 2 games). But, pointspread on Falcs ascending, and Jon Kitna adapting well to off. coord. Mike Martz' passing schemes, throwing for 279 ypg the last 5, helping Lions go "over" 5 of their last 6 contests.
(05-Atl. 27-DET. 7...A.22-20 A.45/256 D.13/75 D.25/48/2/229 A.12/22/1/146 A.1 D.2)
(05-Atlanta -3 27-7...SR: Detroit 22-9)
CHICAGO 31 - Miami 10--Miami QB Daunte Culpepper (2 TDP in 4 starts) reportedly much improved after a few weeks devoted to drills to strengthen his surgically-repaired knee (not to mention his confidence). But whether it's Duante or Joey Harrington, don't trust either behind a make-shift Dolphin OL down 3 starters (G Jeno James the latest casualty). Miami has zero covers TY, while Bears have ripped all comers at Soldier Field, covering all four, with an average score of 38-9!
(02-MIAMI -10 27-9...SR: Miami 6-3)
Minnesota 24 - SAN FRANCISCO 23--Niners running better TY with Frank Gore (631 ypg), and Alex Smith stronger and smarter. But S.F. defense (33 ppg) a huge disappointment. Similarly, RB Chester Taylor (590 YR prior to N.E. game) a pleasant surprise for Minny, but being a favorite on grass (2-12-2 L10Ys) is not what the Vikes do best. Expect S.F. to rally for strong effort after humiliation in Chicago (Niners down 41-0 at the half!)
(03-MINNESOTA -1 35-7...SR: San Francisco 21-19-1)
SAN DIEGO 28 - Cleveland 9--Last game for Shawne Merriman (18½ sacks in 1½ seasons) before his suspension appeal is scheduled, which is very bad news for poorly-protected, still-learning Cleveland QB Charlie Frye (7 TDs, 11 ints.). And the loss of top CB Gary Baxter and change in offensive coordinators do not bode well for the Browns and their OL troubles vs. the much steadier and more explosive Chargers, whose third-year QB Rivers (66%, 10 TDs, 3 ints.) turning out much better than expected.
(04-San Diego -9' 21-0...SR: San Diego 12-7-1)
PITTSBURGH 24 - Denver 17--The last time Jake Plummer faced the Steelers, Denver was favored to win the AFC title Jan. 22, but his 2 fumbles and 2 ints. helped dash the Broncos' hopes. And Plummer hasn't quite been the same since. Even though Ben Roethlisberger (4 more ints. in Oakland; now 11 TY) struggling, will give him the nod at home in must-win game with Denver adjusting to the loss of top-flight LT Lepsis.
(05-Pitt 34-DENVER 17...P.20-16 D.21/97 P.33/90 P.21/29/0/268 D.18/30/2/211 P.0 D.2)
(05-Pittsburgh +3 34-17 (AFC Playoffs)...SR: Denver 14-9-1)
*NEW ENGLAND 26 - Indianapolis 20--After six straight losses to Bill Belichick & the Pats, Peyton Manning finally beat N.E. in regular season LY, but the much-anticipated rematch in the playoffs never materialized. Now, with so many Indy key defenders either out or banged up (DT Simon, DT Reagor, DE Freeney, SS Doss, FS B. Sanders), N.E. will try to pour the ball down Colts' throats (they allowed 227 YR in Denver!) with its improved RB tandem of C. Dillon & L. Maroney. QB Brady making better use of new WRs Gabriel (via Oak.), Caldwell (via S.D.) & C. Jackson (via draft). TV--NBC
(05-Indy 40-N. ENG. 21...I.28-17 I.38/132 N.14/34 I.28/37/1/321 N.25/40/0/254 I.0 N.2)
(05-Indianapolis -4 40-21...SR: New England 43-25)
MONDAY, NOVEMBER 6
*SEATTLE 26 - Oakland 10--2005 MVP Shaun Alexander (check status) due to return from foot injury, if everything goes well. And speedy backup QB S. Wallace showed enough ability (15 of 30, 3 TDs, 2 ints., 18 YR) to make Seahawks worth a look vs. mistake-prone (21 giveaways) Raiders in this Monday nighter. Remember, playoff-bound Giants and Eli Manning were guilty of 11 false start penalties LY at this venue, so let's see how Andrew Walter (only 5 of 14 last week) fares! Hawks own big sideline edge in HC Holmgren. CABLE TV--ESPN
(2006 Preseason: Seattle -3 beat Oakland 30-7 at Seattle)
(02-OAKLAND -7 31-17...SR: Oakland 28-23
MONDAY NIGHT HISTORY
Oakland and Seattle on Monday Night:
Oakland is 21-16-1 SU and 20-17-1 vs. the spread on the road on MNF;
15-5 SU and 11-8 vs. the spread at home on MNF.
Seattle is 9-5 SU and 9-4-1 vs. the spread at home on MNF;
4-3 SU and 4-3 vs. the spread on the road on MNF.
NFL KEY RELEASES
ST. LOUIS by 14 over Kansas City
CINCINNATI by 7 over Baltimore
N.Y. GIANTS by 24 over Houston
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
OVER THE TOTAL in the New Orleans-Tampa Bay game
posted by phantom
Oct. 30 2006 10:47pm -
0 likes
Confidential Kick-Off!! The Gold Sheet!!
11 *SAN DIEGO over Cleveland
Late Score Forecast:
*SAN DIEGO 31 - Cleveland 6
(Sunday, November 5)
Although slightly surprised by the early performances of Philip Rivers (5-2
SU, 66%, 10 TDs, only 3 ints), the S.D. coaches and front-office brass had
this exact kind of performance in mind when they selected Rivers in the
draft. A football background as a youngster, four-year starter at N.C. State
coached by offensive guru Norm Chow, well-liked by his teammates, and already
married and with a family before joining the NFL. Responsible, knowledgeable
and conscientious he has been. And a slight alteration in the NFL has made
his quick delivery even better. Taking over an offense that was already set,
he has the Chargers 3-0 vs. the spread at home, averaging 34 ppg. Meanwhile,
the Browns Charlie Frye (7 TDs, but 11 ints.) is playing behind an OL that
was hurt by injuries in the preseason and now might have lost veteran G Joe
Andruzzi (knee; check status).
10 KENT STATE over *Buffalo
Late Score Forecast:
KENT STATE 41 - *Buffalo 13
Kent State should be emotionally ready for one of its top performances of the
season. Golden Flashes are coming off a disappointing upset at the hands of
Ohio U. that knocked them out of first place in the MAC East standings. Add
to that the fact that Kent was upset by lowly Buffalo last season and you
have a recipe for a fully-focused, determined effort on the part of the
Golden Flashes. Certainly Buffalo's defense, which yields 37 ppg & 225 ypg
rushing, will have a hard time containing soph jitterbug RS frosh RB Eugene
Jarvis (4.9 ypc) and soph QB Julian Edelman (has thrown for a TD in 7
straight games; only 2 ints. last 5). Kent boasts an exceptional 2ndary
(ranked 6th; manned by 4 holdover starters), and the Flashes have a solid
pass rush (17th in sacks) led by frosh DE Kevin Hogan. The Bulls, who've
lost 7 straight, yielded 44 ppg last 4 & were outscored 83-7 in last 2, not
showing much fight.
10 *SOUTH CAROLINA over Arkansas
Late Score Forecast:
*SOUTH CAROLINA 24 - Arkansas 13
Long-time SEC sources report that with difficult road games vs. Florida &
Clemson coming up, 5-3 South Carolina approaching this one like a bowl game,
as one more win gets 'Cocks into the postseason. Unlikely Arkansas'
run-oriented attack can steamroll a more physical Carolina front 7, which
limited the quality ground attacks of Auburn & Tennessee to a combined 198 YR
in 58 carries (just 3.4 ypc). And doubt Hogs still-learning, true frosh QB
Mustain able to consistently convert on down-and-distance vs. 'Cock blitz
packages, implemented by defensive wiz Tyrone Nix. Meanwhile, Carolina's
versatile sr. QB Newton (accounted for 315 yds. vs. Vols, 85 YR!) and a solid
supporting cast do their thing vs. non-dominating Arkansas defense that had
forced just one TO prior to UL Monroe tilt. Plus, key kicking edge goes to
'Cocks strong-legged PK Succop (10 of 11).
10 NAVY over *Duke
Late Score Forecast:
NAVY 35 - *Duke 13
After back-to-back losses to undefeated Rutgers & highly-ranked Notre Dame,
well-coached Navy dropping waaaaaay down in class with this trip to winless
Duke. And Midshipmen hungry for win that will make them eligible to go to a
bowl for the fourth straight season. New QB Kaipo-Noa Kaheaku-Enhada showed
plenty of moxie in his first start last week, as Navy trailed Irish by only
a FG late in first half. Under his direction, relentless Middie rushing
attack will steadily wear down Devil defense, much as it did in racking up
326 yards on the ground in last year's win at Durham. And underrated Navy
defense will more than hold its own vs. bumbling Duke attack that has
produced 22 turnovers and only 11 TDs TY. "Technicals" support visitor as
well. Middies 19-8 vs. spread last 27 away from Annapolis, while Devils just
1 cover last 10 at home.
10 *N.C. STATE over Georgia Tech
Late Score Forecast:
*N.C. STATE 20 - Georgia Tech 13
There's howling in Raleigh, where HC Amato is absorbing severe criticism that
his 3-5 Wolfpack might miss the bowl season for the second time in three
years. However, this has been N.C. State's "spot" in 2006, as the Wolfpack
is 2-0 as a home dog this season, with stubborn, hard-fought performances,
followed by late-game heroics to beat both Boston College and Florida State.
With soph QB Evans gaining valuable experience with every game, the Wolfpack
offense should play with greater confidence at home in a series that has seen
the underdog cover 5 straight. Last week's win by GT over Miami in Atlanta
was impressive. But the Yellow Jackets last road performance two weeks ago
at Clemson (a 31-7 loss) was not.
TOTALS: UNDER (40) in Cincinnati-Baltimore game-Baltimore's defense still
solid; not sold yet on the Billick-directed offense. OVER (47) in
Atlanta-Detroit game-With Vick hot (7 TDP last 2 games) and Kitna improving
in Mike Martz' passing schemes, the points should flow indoors at Ford Field.
HONORABLE MENTION (Nine-Rated Games): SOUTHERN CAL (-29.5) at
Stanford-Winless Stanford's (1-7 vs. spread) injured offense will give angry
Trojans too many opportunities. HOUSTON (+4) vs. Tulsa-Golden Hurricane is
solid all around, but Cougars' veteran leadership and quality offense should
keep this dog in the hunt. BYU (-16) at Colorado State-Cougars (7-0-1 vs.
spread) and precise-like QB John Beck winning easily in MWC; but rising
pointspread keeps this one from being rated higher. NEW MEXICO STATE (6) vs.
San Jose State-Spartans improved, no doubt; but so are the Aggies. CHICAGO
(-13.5) vs. Miami-Dolphins have zero covers TY; down three OLmen already and
facing rampaging Bears in Chicago, where their average score is 38 to 8.
posted by phantom
Oct. 30 2006 10:50pm -
0 likes
pointwise key releases 1 to 5 with 1 highest
rating 1 clemson wash. st.
rating 2 lsu
rating 3 byu rice
rating 4 tcu
rating 5 ohio st. calif.
pro's
rating 2 jacksonville
rating 3 chic.
rating 4 cinn. sd.
rating 5 st. louis
posted by phantom
Oct. 31 2006 5:15pm -
0 likes
Tuesday's List of 13: Random thoughts for Halloween
13) Eagles are 0-3 since beating Dallas in much-ballyhooed Week 5 game.
12) Two teams have more touchdowns than 3/outs: the Colts (22-9), Chargers (23-21). Patriots have 21 of both.
11) Carolina has been outscored in second half of all eight games (total of 107-42 for season).
10) Jets drove 83 yards on their first drive, but still had to settle for just a FG, since drive started at 9-yard line after an awful kick return (Miller later atoned with KR for TD). Browns drive 30 yards with their first possession, but also kicked a FG, because Nugent shanked a kickoff OB, giving them ball on the 40. Field position is huge, especially for teams with middling offenses, like Jets and Browns.
9) On their first drive of each half vs. Jaguars, Eagles ran six plays, lost total of 12 yards.
On Chargers' first two drives of games, they ran 15 plays, gained total of 136 yards, with 8 first downs and pair of TDs. 7) Then there is Tampa Bay, doing its best imitation of '76 Bucs; on their first six drives, Bucs ran total of 16 plays, for total of nine yards, with no first downs, a lost fumble and zero first downs. Luckily for them, Jon Gruden is an offensive guru; imagine where they'd be if he wasn't one.
6) Ravens, Bears have taken over turnover ratio lead (+11); Rams are at +10, but have just two takeaways in their three losses, 14 in their four wins.
5) If you add up third down conversions on both sides of ball, the two worst teams are the 49ers (40.6%), Lions (45.2%).
4) How can a team with Carolina's players be last in NFL in third down conversions (23-94, 24.5%)? It makes no sense.
3) Colts are 7-0, but they haven't led at halftime since Week 2.
2) When you play at home, have 11 drives, with no TDs and no field goal attempts, you know its been a bad night, which is exactly what happened to Minnesota Monday. Now they have cross-country trip to play game vs 49ers Sunday, very much a trap game. Vikings need to win that game.
1) Red Auerbach once said Celtics would have cheerleaders over his dead body. Well, they're having cheerleaders this season for the first time, and now Red is gone. Go figure.
posted by phantom
Oct. 31 2006 5:24pm -
0 likes
NFL 11/5 - 11/6
KANSAS CITY (4 - 3) at ST LOUIS (4 - 3) - 11/5/2006, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ST LOUIS is 15-29 ATS (-16.9 Units) in November games since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
CINCINNATI (4 - 3) at BALTIMORE (5 - 2) - 11/5/2006, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CINCINNATI is 42-64 ATS (-28.4 Units) versus division opponents since 1992.
CINCINNATI is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points over the last 2 seasons.
CINCINNATI is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in road games when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
CINCINNATI is 3-1 against the spread versus BALTIMORE over the last 3 seasons
CINCINNATI is 3-1 straight up against BALTIMORE over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
HOUSTON (2 - 5) at NY GIANTS (5 - 2) - 11/5/2006, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NY GIANTS are 20-35 ATS (-18.5 Units) in November games since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
TENNESSEE (2 - 5) at JACKSONVILLE (4 - 3) - 11/5/2006, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TENNESSEE is 9-20 ATS (-13.0 Units) against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
JACKSONVILLE is 2-2 against the spread versus TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
JACKSONVILLE is 3-1 straight up against TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
DALLAS (4 - 3) at WASHINGTON (2 - 5) - 11/5/2006, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
WASHINGTON is 41-63 ATS (-28.3 Units) versus division opponents since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
DALLAS is 3-2 against the spread versus WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
DALLAS is 3-2 straight up against WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
GREEN BAY (3 - 4) at BUFFALO (2 - 5) - 11/5/2006, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BUFFALO is 28-14 ATS (+12.6 Units) in a home game where the total is between 38.5 and 42 points since 1992.
BUFFALO is 19-8 ATS (+10.2 Units) in home games in November games since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
NEW ORLEANS (5 - 2) at TAMPA BAY (2 - 5) - 11/5/2006, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
TAMPA BAY is 4-1 against the spread versus NEW ORLEANS over the last 3 seasons
TAMPA BAY is 3-2 straight up against NEW ORLEANS over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
ATLANTA (5 - 2) at DETROIT (1 - 6) - 11/5/2006, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
DETROIT is 1-1 against the spread versus ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
DETROIT is 1-1 straight up against ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
MIAMI (1 - 6) at CHICAGO (7 - 0) - 11/5/2006, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MIAMI is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) in all games this season.
MIAMI is 2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 over the last 3 seasons.
MIAMI is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) in all lined games this season.
MIAMI is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points this season.
MIAMI is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) in games played on a grass field this season.
CHICAGO is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in home games when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
CHICAGO is 13-5 ATS (+7.5 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
MINNESOTA (4 - 2) at SAN FRANCISCO (2 - 5) - 11/5/2006, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MINNESOTA is 15-30 ATS (-18.0 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
MINNESOTA is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
SAN FRANCISCO is 33-52 ATS (-24.2 Units) as an underdog since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
CLEVELAND (2 - 5) at SAN DIEGO (5 - 2) - 11/5/2006, 4:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SAN DIEGO is 27-11 ATS (+14.9 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
SAN DIEGO is 14-3 ATS (+10.7 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons.
SAN DIEGO is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 over the last 3 seasons.
SAN DIEGO is 27-11 ATS (+14.9 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
SAN DIEGO is 23-8 ATS (+14.2 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
SAN DIEGO is 24-11 ATS (+11.9 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
SAN DIEGO is 1-0 against the spread versus CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
SAN DIEGO is 1-0 straight up against CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
DENVER (5 - 2) at PITTSBURGH (2 - 5) - 11/5/2006, 4:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PITTSBURGH is 40-22 ATS (+15.8 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992.
PITTSBURGH is 34-18 ATS (+14.2 Units) in all games where the total is 35 or less since 1992.
DENVER is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in road games when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
PITTSBURGH is 1-0 against the spread versus DENVER over the last 3 seasons
PITTSBURGH is 1-0 straight up against DENVER over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
INDIANAPOLIS (7 - 0) at NEW ENGLAND (5 - 1) - 11/5/2006, 8:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ENGLAND is 22-11 ATS (+9.9 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 34-17 ATS (+15.3 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) in a home game where the total is between 45.5 and 49 points since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
NEW ENGLAND is 1-1 against the spread versus INDIANAPOLIS over the last 3 seasons
NEW ENGLAND is 2-1 straight up against INDIANAPOLIS over the last 3 seasons
2 of 3 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
OAKLAND (2 - 5) at SEATTLE (4 - 3) - 11/6/2006, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OAKLAND is 9-19 ATS (-11.9 Units) as an underdog over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 22-38 ATS (-19.8 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
SEATTLE is 13-27 ATS (-16.7 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
SEATTLE is 22-41 ATS (-23.1 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992.
SEATTLE is 52-81 ATS (-37.1 Units) in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period
posted by phantom
Oct. 31 2006 5:27pm -
0 likes
NFL 11/5 - 11/6
Sunday, November 5th
Kansas City at St. Louis, 1:00 EST
Kansas City: 4-0 Over off an Over
St. Louis: 13-32 ATS off a non-conference game
Cincinnati at Baltimore, 1:00 EST
Cincinnati: 2-8 ATS after losing 2 of their last 3 games
Baltimore: 13-2 Under at home vs. conference opponents
Houston at NY Giants, 1:00 EST
Houston: 2-8 ATS vs. non-conference opponents
NY Giants: 21-9 Under off a home win by 10+ points
Tennessee at Jacksonville, 1:00 EST
Tennessee: 9-20 ATS vs. conference opponents
Jacksonville: 16-6 ATS off an Under
Dallas at Washington, 1:00 EST
Dallas: 3-12 ATS away off a win by 21+ points
Washington: 6-0 ATS revenging a road loss
Green Bay at Buffalo, 1:00 EST
Green Bay: 1-5 ATS off a home win
Buffalo: 19-8 ATS at home in November
New Orleans at Tampa Bay, 1:00 EST
New Orleans: 41-19 ATS away off an ATS loss
Tampa Bay: 14-5 Under off a road game
Atlanta at Detroit, 1:00 EST
Atlanta: 6-0 ATS off BB Overs
Detroit: 11-1 Under after allowing 200+ rushing yards
Miami at Chicago, 1:00 EST
Miami: 0-7 ATS this season
Chicago: 14-4 Under off a home game
Minnesota at San Francisco, 4:05 EST
Minnesota: 9-1 ATS as a favorite
San Francisco: 0-6 ATS off 3+ Overs
Cleveland at San Diego, 4:15 EST
Cleveland: 17-6 Under in road games
San Diego: 19-8 ATS off an ATS win
Denver at Pittsburgh, 4:15 EST
Denver: 8-1 ATS away off a home game
Pittsburgh: 10-0 Over in home games
Indianapolis at New England, 8:15 EST NBC
Indianapolis: 6-0 Over away off 6+ wins
New England: 18-6 ATS vs. Indianapolis
** (TC) Denotes Time Change
Monday, November 6th
Oakland at Seattle, 8:30 EST ESPN
Oakland: 9-19 ATS as an underdog
Seattle: 10-2 Over off BB ATS losses
** (TC) Denotes Time Change
NFL Week 9 Bye Week:
Arizona Cardinals, Carolina Panthers, New York Jets, Philadelphia Eagles
posted by phantom
Oct. 31 2006 5:27pm -
0 likes
MARK LAWRENCE
BEST BET
The 2006 Dolphins have become a handicappers nightmare
as we lay awake at night looking for the right role in which
to use them. This is it. For openers, they are 1-6 SU & 0-7 ATS
this season, yet 6-1 ITS (In The Stats). That's incredible, to say
the least. We searched our database (it goes back to 1980)
to fi nd a time when Miami was a two-touchdown underdog.
We couldn't fi nd one. We did discover that Miami is 8-1 ATS
in its last eight tries as underdogs of +6 or more. Meanwhile,
the fat-n-sassy Bears are just 2-5 ATS in games after scoring
40 or more points. With a bigger battle up next week against
the Giants, look for Chicago to suck wind today.
CHICAGO over Miami by 3
3 BEST BET
Another intelligent suggestion is to take the Lions here
against the high-fl ying Falcons. After the thrilling win over the
Steelers two weeks ago and the victorious war with Cincinnati
last week, Atlanta could come up fl at here. The rested Lions
have played well on this fi eld this season and have historically
been tough (7-2 ATS) in the fi rst of back-to-back home games.
They're also in one of our trusted UGLY PIG roles (a home dog
off a loss who started the season 0-4). These porkers are a 67%
ATS winning play if they lost the money in their last game as
well. Hold your nose and enter the pig pen with us.
DETROIT over Atlanta by 6
5 BEST BET
The Colts enter off last week's dramatic last second win over
the Broncos knowing they are a 2-7 ATS against their last nine
non-division avenging teams. Prior to last year's humiliating
41-21 Monday Night home loss to the Colts, New England
had won 14 of the last 16 meetings with 12 covers to go with
the 14 wins. The Patriots, with Corey Dillon and Laurence
Maroney, will get their rushing yards and most of the clock
time against an Indy rush defense that ranks DEAD LAST,
allowing 168 RYPG. Clincher in Bill Belichick's 10-4 SUATS
career mark against undefeated opposition. On a home fi eld
where the Pats have gone 28-4 of late, the Colts toss a shoe
here today.
NFL Totals
5* pitt over
4*Bills over
3* Bucs over
posted by phantom
Nov. 1 2006 1:54pm -
0 likes
Sports Reporters Nfl
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BEST BET
*ST. LOUIS over KANSAS CITY by 14
Non-conference road game on artificial turf for the hit-and-miss offense and poor-tackling
defense of the Chiefs, vs. a home offense with its share of productive tools and newfound
balance with post-Martz minds. Hard to like Kansas City in a spot like this, with a
banged-up Damon Huard attempting match scores with Marc Bulger and the Rams after
RB Steven Jackson hammers the Kansas City front in a manner that an absent guy such
as Shaun Alexander could not do against them last Sunday. The Rams are in a lot less
danger of falling behind 0-14 here, like you knew they could and did at San Diego (Best
Bet winner) last Sunday. This allows Jackson to be the factor that Scott Line-Ram wants
him to be. Then, if Bulger hits receivers on the move in those Cover-2 seams, the Chiefs
are dead. St. Louis’ Jim Haslett is probably the 31st-best defensive coordinator in the
NFL, but home-domers facing a hurting QB behind a shaky offensive line turn ordinary
DCs into masterminds on certain afternoons, and this could be one of them. Herman’s
Head had no idea in a must-win Week 17 loss at St. Louis with the Jets a couple of seasons
ago. ST. LOUIS, 31-17.
BEST BET
CINCINNATI over *BALTIMORE by 8
The Bengals came up short against Michael Vick and the Falcons – as expected. Now, a
real game presents itself – AFC North encounter, where Cincinnati is already 2-0 SU and
ATS. For one week at least, Brian Billick was able to awaken the offense and put up some
points against the Saints in New Orleans. However, the Ravens were aided by Drew Brees
finally waking up from his fairy tale and throwing two interceptions from the end zone,
each returned for touchdowns. Starvin’ Marvin, OC Bob Bratkowski and QB Carson
Palmer do not combine to make the same mistakes, if they are even caught in that part
of the field to begin with. In any event, let’s not forget Coach Lewis’ six-year tenure as
the Baltimore defensive coordinator and the Super Bowl victory he helped them achieve.
Palmer has played very well against Baltimore his last three times, compiling a 76%
passing percentage and averaging 311 yards per game with 8 TDs and 2 INTs. Most
telling, two of the games were in Baltimore, both Bengals’ wins. The Ravens offense is
still suspect, as an opportunistic Cincy team may make it more difficult for Steve McNair
to be so efficient. CINCINNATI 24-16.
RECOMMENDED
*CHICAGO over MIAMI by 22
Another cellar dweller hops and skips into Chicago as the Joey Harrington-led Miami
Dolphins offense, backed by pretty boys Jason Taylor and Zach Thomas on the Dolphins’
defense, travel to Soldier Field. The Dolphins have the so-called “luxuryâ€
posted by phantom
Nov. 1 2006 2:19pm -
0 likes
Sports Reporters Nfl
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NFL FOO FOOTB TBALL ALL
2
SUNDAY, NOVEMBER 5
BEST BET
*ST. LOUIS over KANSAS CITY by 14
Non-conference road game on artificial turf for the hit-and-miss offense and poor-tackling
defense of the Chiefs, vs. a home offense with its share of productive tools and newfound
balance with post-Martz minds. Hard to like Kansas City in a spot like this, with a
banged-up Damon Huard attempting match scores with Marc Bulger and the Rams after
RB Steven Jackson hammers the Kansas City front in a manner that an absent guy such
as Shaun Alexander could not do against them last Sunday. The Rams are in a lot less
danger of falling behind 0-14 here, like you knew they could and did at San Diego (Best
Bet winner) last Sunday. This allows Jackson to be the factor that Scott Line-Ram wants
him to be. Then, if Bulger hits receivers on the move in those Cover-2 seams, the Chiefs
are dead. St. Louis’ Jim Haslett is probably the 31st-best defensive coordinator in the
NFL, but home-domers facing a hurting QB behind a shaky offensive line turn ordinary
DCs into masterminds on certain afternoons, and this could be one of them. Herman’s
Head had no idea in a must-win Week 17 loss at St. Louis with the Jets a couple of seasons
ago. ST. LOUIS, 31-17.
BEST BET
CINCINNATI over *BALTIMORE by 8
The Bengals came up short against Michael Vick and the Falcons – as expected. Now, a
real game presents itself – AFC North encounter, where Cincinnati is already 2-0 SU and
ATS. For one week at least, Brian Billick was able to awaken the offense and put up some
points against the Saints in New Orleans. However, the Ravens were aided by Drew Brees
finally waking up from his fairy tale and throwing two interceptions from the end zone,
each returned for touchdowns. Starvin’ Marvin, OC Bob Bratkowski and QB Carson
Palmer do not combine to make the same mistakes, if they are even caught in that part
of the field to begin with. In any event, let’s not forget Coach Lewis’ six-year tenure as
the Baltimore defensive coordinator and the Super Bowl victory he helped them achieve.
Palmer has played very well against Baltimore his last three times, compiling a 76%
passing percentage and averaging 311 yards per game with 8 TDs and 2 INTs. Most
telling, two of the games were in Baltimore, both Bengals’ wins. The Ravens offense is
still suspect, as an opportunistic Cincy team may make it more difficult for Steve McNair
to be so efficient. CINCINNATI 24-16.
*NY GIANTS over HOUSTON by 18
With 31- and 34-point yields to the Washington and Dallas offenses, Houston’s defensive
personnel have already proven that they will roll over and play dead for NFC East masters.
Therefore, you prospective road-dog backers out there must put your hands together and
pray for Burress, Shockey and Toomer to drop some balls, or for Eli the Inaccurate to zip them
three feet behind his moving targets – although Burress can still pull ‘em in from out there.
All along, the Giants can target the Texans’ front seven as a grooming game for #2 RB
Brandon Jacobs, who may ramble like a #1 against this visiting unit. TV Tiki can discuss
career options on the sidelines while Jacobs pounds it and the Giants cruise, as long as
Strahan doesn’t spend the entire game complaining about how well Gary Kubiak’s chopblockers
are honing their craft. Hey, look ‘’over’’ there! NY GIANTS, 38-20.
*JACKSONVILLE over TENNESSEE by 13
Jacksonville gutted out a nice victory at Philly last weekend, but strong winds completely
changed the dynamic of the game, allowing the Jags to keep the ball on the ground and keep
David Garrard from having to do much at all with his arm. Garrard is one of the best backups
around, but the question here is whether or not he or Byron Leftwich can ignite the
offense enough to cover the spread. The Jaguars’ backfield duo of Fred Taylor and Maurice
Jones-Drew offers good versatility, with Jones-Drew showing good hands and the ability to
be dangerous in the passing game and break tackles. Both have benefited from solid play
from the offensive line and Jacksonville shouldn’t have any trouble dominating the line of
scrimmage against a defense that’s giving up 4.9 yards per carry. Already 0-2 in the AFC
South, Jack Del Rio can’t afford to have his team come out lax or unfocused here as the next
two divisional home games take on extra importance but there’s no need to run up the score
and open the playbook unnecessarily. Vince Young isn’t lighting it up, but he’s making good
choices so far. JACKSONVILLE 26-13.
DALLAS over *WASHINGTON by 3
It would be tempting to take the Redskins coming off the bye and facing an erratic Cowboys
team where the soap opera sometimes seems to override the performance on the field.
However, this Redskins team appears to be a nowhere bunch, especially if if Joe Gibbs sticks
to his guns and keeps Mark Brunell as the starting QB. Not that Jason Campbell would give
the ‘Skins a better chance to win, but at least they would be developing something for the
future. Brunell has shown his age this season and has been inconsistent, to be kind. Clinton
Portis has also seemingly dealt with minor injuries all season, this time being sidelined during
the bye week practices with a swollen calf. Tony Romo is no sure thing, but he does alleviate
some of the protection problems of the Dallas offensive line and the Cowboys still have
some very effective offensive skill players. Not only has Washington’s offense been inconsistent
this year, so has the defense as personnel changes have hampered Greg Williams
touch from previous seasons running this unit. DALLAS 27-24.
GREEN BAY over *BUFFALO by 1
When last we addressed these Jaurons from Buffalo, it was with a Midweek Update Best Bet
win against them with New England two weeks ago. The Bills didn’t play last week, but their
defense needs more than 14 days to get significantly better in its conversion to the “trustingâ€
posted by phantom
Nov. 1 2006 2:20pm -
0 likes
power sweep
4 byu
3 arkansas
3 oklahoma
2 ohio st
2 washington st
2 usc
underdog mississippi
4 san diego
3 tampa bay
2 baltimore
2 detroit
3 saints u 38'
3 dolphins o 39'
3 falcons o 47
2 titans u 38
2 rams o 47'
posted by phantom
Nov. 1 2006 2:21pm -
0 likes
Winning Points Nfl
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
****BEST BET
Cincinnati over *Baltimore by 14
After three losses in their past four games, the question must be asked: Are
the Bengals any good or was making the playoffs last season just a fluke?
Cincy’s players probably are asking themselves that very question. It is look
in the mirror time for Cincinnati. What does the reflection show? It’s our
belief the Bengals come out extremely fired-up and prove worthy. Playing
at Baltimore no longer bothers them. After losing to the Ravens seven consecutive
times on the road, the Bengals have won the past two times at
Baltimore. Carson Palmer hasn’t had problems others have had against the
Ravens’ stout defense. Last year, Palmer was 41-for-56 with five touchdown
passes in two games against Baltimore. The Ravens surrendered 42 points
to Cincy last season. That’s the most points they’ve given up since 1998. T.J.
Houshmandzadeh also plays well against Baltimore. He’s averaged eight
receptions and 124 yards per game the past four times against the Ravens.
Cincy has all its weapons back on offense now with deep threat Chris
Henry back from suspension and change of pace running back Chris Perry
healthy. If the Ravens choose to double-team Chad Johnson, it’s going to
open things up for the others. The Bengals are small, but opportunistic on
defense. They can keep a mediocre Baltimore offense in check. Jamal Lewis
hasn’t been an elite runner for three years. He’s not going to hurt the
Bengals. On the other hand, look for Rudi Johnson to pound away. The
Bengals realize they have to run Johnson more in order to relieve pass rush
pressure on Palmer. We find Baltimore overrated, making the Bengals an
attractive underdog. Don’t forget Cincinnati’s 12-2-1 ATS road mark.
Successfully handicapping the NFL is all about zigging and zagging at the
right times. This is the time to zig while the Bengals appear down. They are
better than they’ve shown. They’ll prove that here. CINCINNATI 28-14.
***BEST BET
Tennessee over *Jacksonville by 7
You’d have to go back to 2003 to discover the last time the Titans won
three games in a row. Maybe it doesn’t happen in this matchup, but we’ll
sure take around double-digit points to find out. Jacksonville still doesn’t
have a passing attack. Jaguars coach Jack Del Rio’s choice at quarterback is
either Byron Leftwich, who is gimpy and immobile, or David Garrard.
Leftwich is the better passer, which isn’t saying that much. Garrard is the
better runner. Jacksonville has been outstanding at home, outscoring their
opposition, 74-17, at Alltel Stadium this season. It’s also the Jaguars’ first
home game in four weeks. Upsetting the Eagles in Philadelphia last week
behind Garrard was a huge confidence boost for Jacksonville. That’s kind of
Jacksonville’s pattern, though. They do well when they’re up against it
when the chips are down and then let up when the game isn’t crucial for
them. We’re figuring Garrard to get another start. That means lots of running.
The Titans have the coaching acumen and trench play to match up.
Jeff Fisher always has the Titans well prepared. Tennessee’s defense has
been improving. The Titans brought in solid veterans such as safety Chris
Hope, lineman Robaire Smith and linebacker David Thornton. Tennessee
also reconfigured its offensive line. The line is playing much better now,
too. It’s just taken a while for things to gel. The Jaguars are going to have to
deal with a running quarterback, too – Vince Young. He’s more elusive and
talented than Garrard. Looking at the Titans’ most recent games you’ll see a
near-miss against the undefeated Colts, an outright victory at Washington
followed by a bye and then a victory against Houston. Motivation won’t be
a problem. The Titans have double-revenge from last year. Aside from last
season, the Titans have experienced success against Jacksonville going 6-3
SU and ATS the past nine games. TENNESSEE 21-14.
**PREFERRED
*San Francisco over Minnesota by 4
Brad Childress has done a nice job fixing the train wreck, make that ship
wreck, that was the undisciplined, goofy Vikings of Mike Tice. Fail to toe the
line with Childress and you’re out of there. That was proven with the departures
of Daunte Culpepper and Koren Robinson. No love boat scandals anymore.
Minnesota entered its Monday game against New England holding
six foes under 20 points. They were leading the NFL in run defense entering
Week 8. All impressive, but keep in mind this is the NFL. It’s not necessarily
who you play but when you play them. That’s the case here. This is a
perfect spot for the 49ers. San Francisco has gotten back its veteran offensive
linemen who were hurt. Mike Nolan should have the 49ers fired-up at
home after their embarrassment to the Bears last week where they trailed
41-0 at halftime. The situation is ripe, too, with the Vikings traveling to the
west coast on a short week. The Vikings also have a cluster injury problem
at wide receiver. Every trend favors San Francisco. The Vikings are 14-25 (35
percent) on grass. The Vikings are 2-14 ATS before playing Green Bay. The
Vikings are 1-8 ATS vs. NFC West teams on the road. Minnesota also has
failed to cover the past five times it has been favored by four or more
points on the road. SAN FRANCISCO 23-19.
Preferred
*Tampa Bay over New Orleans by 8
When these two teams met four weeks ago it was rookie quarterback
Bruce Gradkowski’s first start for Tampa Bay. Despite that the Buccaneers
nearly pulled off the road upset. The Saints needed a late 65-yard punt
return for a touchdown by Reggie Bush to win, 24-21. Since then the
Buccaneers have posted home victories against the Bengals and Eagles.
Gradkowski doesn’t have a big arm, but he’s shown that his college statistics
weren’t a fluke. He is a highly accurate passer with mobility. He’ll be
able to pass on the Saints’ mediocre secondary. Cadillac Williams has been
playing well, too. Until being held to 20 yards rushing in a road loss last
week against the Giants, Williams had rushed for 287 yards his previous
three games. Tampa Bay’s defense has been playing better also reverting to
last season’s No. 1 yardage ranking. The Bucs haven’t allowed more than
more than 21 points the past three games. That’s impressive considering
the Bengals, Eagles and Giants were the Bucs’ opponents. All are high-powered
offenses. The Saints’ bubble burst this past Sunday in a home loss to
the Ravens. Baltimore exposed New Orleans as being an overachieving
squad not nearly as good as its record. On top of this, Bush (check status)
could be slowed by an ankle injury. TAMPA BAY 24-16.
posted by phantom
Nov. 1 2006 2:22pm -
0 likes
Winning Points Close Calls
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
*St. Louis over Kansas City by 1
We’re not sure if the Rams deserve to be favored here even being at home.
St. Louis’ 4-3 record is deceiving. The Rams actually have allowed four more
touchdowns than they’ve scored. The Chiefs may get back Trent Green
(check status). He’s been out since suffering a head injury opening week.
Green shouldn’t be rusty since he has been practicing. However, this is the
Chiefs’ only carpet game. They are 0-6-1 ATS on artificial turf going back to
2002. Marc Bulger has a brilliant 12-1 touchdown to interception ratio. It’s
helped the Rams post a plus 10 turnover ratio. The Chiefs ranked sixth in
pass defense going into Week 8. ST. LOUIS 17-16.
*New York Giants over Houston by 15
We’re not in the habit of recommending double-digit favorites, but these
Texans make looking at the underdog impossible. We want no part of a
Houston squad that has lost its last 11 away games and whose quarterback,
David Carr, made have suffered a loss of confidence after being pulled last
week. The Texans can’t protect whoever is behind center giving up 20
sacks. Meanwhile the Giants have come on to average five sacks their last
three games after getting to quarterbacks just five times the first four
games. Since their bye, the Giants have won four in a row by a combined
margin of 99-42. New York is 10-3 ATS as a home favorite, but has suffered
several key defensive injuries. NY GIANTS 29-14.
4
Dallas over *Washington by 2
Both of these teams have a similar problem – quarterback. Washington’s
defense hasn’t been very good either allowing 110 points the last four
games and 1,346 yards the past 13 quarters. At least the bye came at a good
time for the Redskins with Santana Moss (hamstring) and Clinton Portis
(ankle) getting extra time to recuperate. Dallas dominated the team’s earlier
meeting, beating Washington, 27-10, in Week 2. The Cowboys outgained
the Redskins, 367-245, showing a nice balance of 229 yards passing and 138
rushing. The final would have been even more lopsided if the Redskins didn’t
get a 100-yard kickoff return by Rock Cartwright. Since 1996, though,
the Redskins are 8-3 ATS following a bye. DALLAS 21-19.
Green Bay over *Buffalo by 2
The Packers are riding momentum with a pair of victories and an improved
ground game with Ahman Green and Vernand Morency. The Bills entered
their bye week ranked 30th in offense, 29th in passing, 28th in scoring and
23rd in rushing. J.P. Losman has turned the ball over eight times his past
three games, including throwing five interceptions. Buffalo coach Dick
Jauron used the bye to reshuffle his offensive line. The problem with recommending
the Packers is they are playing on artificial turf with a decimated
wide receiving corps and three inexperienced starting offensive
linemen. Buffalo is 10-5 ATS as a home favorite. GREEN BAY 16-14.
Atlanta over *Detroit by 3
Expect a lot of points here on carpet with two bad secondaries. Michael
Vick has put together his best back-to-back passing games throwing for
seven touchdowns against the Steelers and Bengals. The Lions have given
up 14 touchdown passes in seven games and no longer can stop the run
with star defensive tackle Shaun Rogers suspended. The Falcons have
enjoyed success in Detroit winning and covering the past three times at
Ford Field, including a 27-7 victory last year on Thanksgiving. The Falcons,
though, remain vulnerable on defense with their best rusher, John
Abraham, sidelined and a porous secondary. Detroit’s innovative offensive
coordinator Mike Martz has had two weeks to game plan. ATLANTA 31-28.
*Chicago over Miami by 14
After resting for two weeks in the sunshine of south Florida, the Dolphins
travel to Chicago where they might have to deal with cold and wind.
They’ll definitely have to deal with perhaps the best team in football. The
Bears are off to their best start since 1985. They have been particular brilliant
at home outscoring four foes (Lions, Seahawks, Bills and 49ers), 152-
30, an average victory margin of 31 points. After not playing well on the
road against the Cardinals, Rex Grossman bounced back last Sunday with
another strong effort. Joey Harrington has thrown three touchdown passes
while being picked off seven times since replacing Daunte Culpepper.
Harrington was so bad last year in Chicago as a member of the Lions his
Detroit teammates quit in disgust during a 38-6 loss. CHICAGO 26-12.
*San Diego over Cleveland by 13
LaDainian Tomlinson is having another great season. This certainly doesn’t
surprise the Browns who have watched Tomlinson rush for 413 yards and
score four touchdowns during three games against them. The Browns can’t
stop the run and their quarterback, Charlie Frye, is a work in progress who
doesn’t get much assistance. Cleveland has yet to score a touchdown in the
first quarter. This doesn’t bode well since they don’t have the kind of
offense that can play from behind. The Browns ranked last in offense
through Week 7. They’ve topped 17 points just twice. The Chargers won’t
have Shaun Phillips, out with a calf injury. But their other star pass rusher,
Shawne Merriman, is eligible for this matchup because he’s appealing a
league suspension. SAN DIEGO 26-13.
Indianapolis over *New England by 3
Peyton Manning hasn’t had much luck facing the Patriots and Bill Belichick
at Foxborough. He’s just 1-7 SU there. But Manning ended the jinx completing
28-of-37 for 321 yards and three touchdowns last season in a 40-21
Indy victory. The Patriots’ defense is better this season, but not strong
enough to slow Manning down. Perhaps weather could aid New England.
This is the Sunday night game and we’re into November. The Patriots
should get their share of points, too. The Colts were allowing a league-high
5.2 yards per carry through Week 7. Tom Brady is 6-1 SU against Indy. He’s
had ample time now to get used to his new wideouts. It’s a tough assignment
for Indy playing at Denver and then New England back-to-back
weeks. INDIANAPOLIS 26-23.
*Pittsburgh over Denver by 3
Until allowing 34 points to the Colts at home, Denver was giving up an
average of 7.3 points. Denver’s defense certainly is good, but it wasn’t that
good. The key here is can Ben Roethlisberger and Pittsburgh’s offense pick
up anything from what the Colts did to Denver? If Roethlisberger is healthy,
a huge if, the Steelers should be able to pass since the Broncos have to pay
attention to fast Willie Parker. Let’s face it; the Steelers are washed-up if they
lose here. On the flip side, Jake Plummer finally had a nice game for Denver.
So did Mike Bell. If the Broncos finally achieve a balanced attack, they
would be a legitimate Super Bowl contender. PITTSBURGH 20-17.
*Seattle over Oakland by 7 (Monday)
This game was looking a lot more appealing for Seattle three weeks ago
before Matt Hasselbeck suffered a knee injury and the Raiders gained some
much needed confidence following consecutive victories against the
Cardinals and Steelers. Seattle backup quarterback Seneca Wallace can
scramble. He has good receivers. There’s also the possibility the Seahawks
get back Shaun Alexander (check status). It’s a nice home field edge, too, for
Seattle. Qwest Field is the loudest outdoor stadium. Just ask the Giants, who
committed 11 false-start penalties there. Seattle is 10-3 ATS laying points at
home. But injuries, suspensions and defections have taken a toll on the
Seahawks’ offensive line. Oakland has quality pass rushers who can take
advantage. SEATTLE 24-17.
OVER/UNDER
**OVER: Atlanta at Detroit – The Falcons have surrendered seven
touchdown passes their past two games, while the Lions entered their bye
week allowing the most touchdown passes in the league.
UNDER: Green Bay at Buffalo – The Bills have not scored more than
two offensive touchdowns their last 11 games, while Green Bay is near
depleted at wide receiver.
UNDER: Kansas City at St. Louis – The Rams’ offense is now more
reliant on fundamentals rather than big-strikes, while the Chiefs have injury
concerns at quarterback.
HISTORICAL TRENDS
Kansas City at St. Louis – The Chiefs buried the Rams, 49-10, at home in
2002.
Cincinnati at Baltimore – The Bengals swept the Ravens last year, winning
21-9 on the road and 42-29 at home. The Bengals are 2-7 SU and ATS
at Baltimore.
Houston at New York Giants – Houston edged the Giants, 16-14, at home
in 2002.
Tennessee at Jacksonville – Tennessee lost twice to Jacksonville last season,
falling 31-28 at home and 40-13 on the road. The Titans are 6-3 SU and
ATS at Jacksonville.
Dallas at Washington – Dallas beat Washington, 27-10, in Week 2. The
Cowboys are 7-1 ATS, 6-2 SU at Washington.
Green Bay at Buffalo – The Packers shut out the Bills, 10-0, at home in
2002.
New Orleans at Tampa Bay – New Orleans shaded Tampa Bay, 24-21, in
Week 5. The Saints are 3-1 SU and ATS at Tampa.
Atlanta at Detroit – The Falcons defeated the Lions, 27-7, last year on the
road.
Miami at Chicago – Miami defeated Chicago, 27-9, at home in 2002.
Minnesota at San Francisco – Minnesota beat San Francisco, 35-7, at
home in 2003.
Cleveland at San Diego – San Diego shut out Cleveland, 21-0, on the road
in 2004.
Denver at Pittsburgh – The Steelers trimmed the Broncos, 34-17, last year
in the AFC title game at Denver.
Indianapolis at New England – The Colts defeated the Patriots, 40-21, on
the road last year.
Oakland at Seattle – Oakland beat Seattle, 31-17, at home in 2002.
__________________
posted by phantom
Nov. 1 2006 2:23pm -
0 likes
kevin o'neil
NFL
Sunday, November 5th, 2006
Ram Tough
Bengals (+3½, -120) over @Ravens
It was silver platter time for the Ravens on Sunday.
A pair of interception returns helped them get out to
a healthy lead. In all 4 turnovers by the Saints led
to touchdowns for the Ravens, who only had a
single long TD drive (an 80-yard effort in the 2nd
quarter). Three Saints trips inside the 10 saw them
come up with absolutely nothing. 2 TD passes by
McNair bounced off of defenders. Simply everything
went the way of Baltimore. It is rare to get all the
breaks on consecutive weeks in the NFL, and a
hungry Bengals team comes to Baltimore for this
one.
The formerly 3-0 Bengals are now 4-3, and simply
cannot afford to let the Ravens get 2 games up in
the division. This is very close to a must win for a
Bengals team that considers themselves to be Super
Bowl contenders. If Chris Henry can avoid getting
arrested for the 5th time in the past year this week,
the Bengals will again this week have the most
dangerous trio of wide receivers in football. Henry,
Chad Johnson, and TJ Houshmandzadeh combined
for 17 catches and 229 yards against Atlanta. The
Ravens are properly considered a solid defensive
team but their DB’s are not the best in coverage and
their corners are particularly vulnerable. Bengals are
not known for their defense, but their loss to Atlanta
was only the second time they’ve allowed more than
20 points in a game and Baltimore’s offense is not
what they showed in New Orleans. We’ve been
going against them frequently, but like Cincy as the
side this week. Bengals by 3.
Scrappy Titans
Titans (+9½) over @Jaguars
Obviously the most popular guy in any town is the
2nd string QB, and it looks like the Jags have decided
to move against David Garrard is not a proven
quarterback. He had only 76 yards passing on 17
attempts Sunday (less than 4½ yards per attempt).
Jacksonville was fortunate to not really have to do
anything to win. As one Philly sports columnist wrote
“never has a Reid team come up so small in a big
spot, so absolutely inept.â€
posted by phantom
Nov. 1 2006 2:49pm -
0 likes
NFL 11/5 - 11/6
KANSAS CITY (4 - 3) at ST LOUIS (4 - 3) - 11/5/2006, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ST LOUIS is 15-29 ATS (-16.9 Units) in November games since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
CINCINNATI (4 - 3) at BALTIMORE (5 - 2) - 11/5/2006, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CINCINNATI is 42-64 ATS (-28.4 Units) versus division opponents since 1992.
CINCINNATI is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points over the last 2 seasons.
CINCINNATI is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in road games when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
CINCINNATI is 3-1 against the spread versus BALTIMORE over the last 3 seasons
CINCINNATI is 3-1 straight up against BALTIMORE over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
HOUSTON (2 - 5) at NY GIANTS (5 - 2) - 11/5/2006, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NY GIANTS are 20-35 ATS (-18.5 Units) in November games since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
TENNESSEE (2 - 5) at JACKSONVILLE (4 - 3) - 11/5/2006, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TENNESSEE is 9-20 ATS (-13.0 Units) against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
JACKSONVILLE is 2-2 against the spread versus TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
JACKSONVILLE is 3-1 straight up against TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
DALLAS (4 - 3) at WASHINGTON (2 - 5) - 11/5/2006, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
WASHINGTON is 41-63 ATS (-28.3 Units) versus division opponents since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
DALLAS is 3-2 against the spread versus WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
DALLAS is 3-2 straight up against WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
GREEN BAY (3 - 4) at BUFFALO (2 - 5) - 11/5/2006, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BUFFALO is 28-14 ATS (+12.6 Units) in a home game where the total is between 38.5 and 42 points since 1992.
BUFFALO is 19-8 ATS (+10.2 Units) in home games in November games since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
NEW ORLEANS (5 - 2) at TAMPA BAY (2 - 5) - 11/5/2006, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
TAMPA BAY is 4-1 against the spread versus NEW ORLEANS over the last 3 seasons
TAMPA BAY is 3-2 straight up against NEW ORLEANS over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
ATLANTA (5 - 2) at DETROIT (1 - 6) - 11/5/2006, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
DETROIT is 1-1 against the spread versus ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
DETROIT is 1-1 straight up against ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
MIAMI (1 - 6) at CHICAGO (7 - 0) - 11/5/2006, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MIAMI is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) in all games this season.
MIAMI is 2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 over the last 3 seasons.
MIAMI is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) in all lined games this season.
MIAMI is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points this season.
MIAMI is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) in games played on a grass field this season.
CHICAGO is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in home games when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
CHICAGO is 13-5 ATS (+7.5 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
MINNESOTA (4 - 2) at SAN FRANCISCO (2 - 5) - 11/5/2006, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MINNESOTA is 15-30 ATS (-18.0 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
MINNESOTA is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
SAN FRANCISCO is 33-52 ATS (-24.2 Units) as an underdog since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
CLEVELAND (2 - 5) at SAN DIEGO (5 - 2) - 11/5/2006, 4:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SAN DIEGO is 27-11 ATS (+14.9 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
SAN DIEGO is 14-3 ATS (+10.7 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons.
SAN DIEGO is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 over the last 3 seasons.
SAN DIEGO is 27-11 ATS (+14.9 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
SAN DIEGO is 23-8 ATS (+14.2 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
SAN DIEGO is 24-11 ATS (+11.9 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
SAN DIEGO is 1-0 against the spread versus CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
SAN DIEGO is 1-0 straight up against CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
DENVER (5 - 2) at PITTSBURGH (2 - 5) - 11/5/2006, 4:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PITTSBURGH is 40-22 ATS (+15.8 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992.
PITTSBURGH is 34-18 ATS (+14.2 Units) in all games where the total is 35 or less since 1992.
DENVER is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in road games when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
PITTSBURGH is 1-0 against the spread versus DENVER over the last 3 seasons
PITTSBURGH is 1-0 straight up against DENVER over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
INDIANAPOLIS (7 - 0) at NEW ENGLAND (5 - 1) - 11/5/2006, 8:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ENGLAND is 22-11 ATS (+9.9 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 34-17 ATS (+15.3 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) in a home game where the total is between 45.5 and 49 points since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
NEW ENGLAND is 1-1 against the spread versus INDIANAPOLIS over the last 3 seasons
NEW ENGLAND is 2-1 straight up against INDIANAPOLIS over the last 3 seasons
2 of 3 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
OAKLAND (2 - 5) at SEATTLE (4 - 3) - 11/6/2006, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OAKLAND is 9-19 ATS (-11.9 Units) as an underdog over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 22-38 ATS (-19.8 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
SEATTLE is 13-27 ATS (-16.7 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
SEATTLE is 22-41 ATS (-23.1 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992.
SEATTLE is 52-81 ATS (-37.1 Units) in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period
posted by phantom
Nov. 1 2006 2:53pm -
0 likes
Newsletter Records for NFL last 6 weeks
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Here are the records for the newsletters NFL selections. I only compile the best bets so it won't be their total record. Playbook has been on fire. Pointwise is doing very well and Power Sweeps 4* have been on fire.
Playbook-- 5* ( 5-1) 4* (5-1) 3* (4-2).... thats 14-4 overall!
Pointwise-- 2* ( 4-2) 3* (5-1)...the lower the rating the better. They havent had any 1* the last 6 weeks in NFL.
Power Sweep-- 4* (5-1) 3* (2-3-1)
Winning Points-- 4* (2-1-1) 3* (2-2)
Sports Reporters-- Super Best Bets (1-1) Best Bets (4-4)
CKO-- 11 rated plays (0-1) 10 rated plays (3-2) 9 rated plays (3-3)
Red Sheet-- 89 rated (0-0) 88 rated (1-3-1)
Gold Sheet-- Best Bets (7-9-1)
posted by phantom
Nov. 3 2006 11:21pm -
0 likes
DOC'S FREE PICK
#111 Take Cincinnati +3 over Baltimore (Sunday 1:00 pm CBS) A critical game in the AFC North takes place Sunday when the Ravens host the Bengals. Cincy trails the Ravens by one game in the standing and thus this game means more to them. The Bengals have the ability to beat you with the run or the pass and that is a step up from Baltimore, who struggles to move the football on offense. The Bengals have beaten Baltimore the last three meetings and will have no problem extending that winning streak to four games. Cincinnati 17, Baltimore 14
Docs
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5 Unit Play. #137 Take Oakland +7½ over Seattle (Monday 8:30 pm ESPN) The Raiders have won two straight games and are catching the Hawks @ just the right moment. Seattle has lost two straight games and will still be without QB Hasselbeck and RB Alexander. This means the score will be low since Seattle will have trouble moving the football behind QB Wallace. The line is also banged up and expect Oakland to get to the quarterback behind Sapp & Burgess. This will be a field goal game and thus we will have the victory which side comes out on top. Seattle 20, Oakland 17.
4 Unit Play. #115 Take Miami +13½ over Chicago (Sunday 1:00 pm CBS) The Bears played their best half of the season putting 41 points on the board against the dreadful 49ers last Sunday @ Soldier Field. They will find the scoring will be much more difficult against the Dolphins, who feature a stingy defense. The Fish are coming off a bye week and just have too much talent to be playing so bad. Pride finally sets in and they will play to their potential in this game. Miami will reach double digits in this contest and stay with single digits of the Bears. Chicago will come out flat and thus this game will be closer then what the experts think. Chicago 17, Miami 10.
4 Unit Play. #124 Take Under 48 in Kansas City @ St. Louis (Sunday 1:00 pm CBS) The battle of Missouri is renewed with both teams sitting under the radar and just glimpses of what they were in the past. The Rams have a record of 4-3 but have allowed more points then they have scored. The Chiefs will start QB Huard who may be playing his last game before QB Green returns to the line-up. The Rams like to beat teams throwing the football but the Chiefs ranked sixth in pass defense. This is usually a very competitive game so we will not worry about who wins this game and just focus on the under. Kansas City 23, St. Louis 20.
4 Unit Play. #126 Take Tampa Bay +1 over New Orleans (Sunday 1:00 pm Fox) The Saints laid an egg last week @ the Superdome against the Ravens and they were exposed with some of their weaknesses. They gave up 35 points in that game and the defense will be picked apart again by the Tampa Bay offense. The Saints are 2-1 on the road but have not beaten anyone of significance (Cleveland & Green Bay). QB Gradkowski's 1st start came against the Saints and he played well enough in that game to earn us the cover. We expect him to do even better in this showcase and earn his team another victory. Much of the Saints speed will be offset by playing outdoors. Tampa Bay 21, New Orleans 17.
4 Unit Play. #132 Take Pittsburgh -3 over Denver (Sunday 4:15 pm CBS) The Steelers need this game desperately after laying an egg against the Raiders. Pittsburgh dominated the stat sheet in that game but was done in by critical turnovers by QB Roethlisberger. The Broncos lost to Indianapolis @ home last week by did run the football effectively, something that they will not be able to do against Pittsburgh. Pittsburgh beat Denver last season, 34-17 to advance to the Super Bowl and with both teams mainly in tact; there is no reason why they will do not that again. Pittsburgh 34, Denver 17.
posted by phantom
Nov. 3 2006 11:22pm -
0 likes
Jim Rich
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
over/unders...46-68
last week 6-8
he suxs on totals ..pretty good on his BB..this weeks BB is Sd (5-2-1)
fade away guys
Giants under 43
rams over 48
sd over 42
boys under 42
jags under 37 1/2
bears under 37 1/2
balt under 40 1/2
den under 37
saints over 38 1/2
colts over 48
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
teasers 8-8
falcons +9..colts +9..rams + 3 1/2.Den + 8 1/2
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
opinions
Raiders over
falcons over 47
49ers over 42
pack under 40
posted by phantom
Nov. 3 2006 11:23pm -
0 likes
Ace Ace
My Picks
Dal Under 42.....................................$300.00
Atl-5................................................. ..$2000.00
Jax 1st Half -6 Over Ten..............$800.00
Hou +13............................................... $300.00
Under 21 1/2 1st Half Sf..............$3000.00
Den +2 1/2.............................................$500 .00
Oak +7 1/2............................................$300. 00
posted by phantom
Nov. 3 2006 11:23pm -
0 likes
Powerplays
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kc..jags..sd..pats..
Good Luck Dizzy..they went 4-0 last sunday..
posted by phantom
Nov. 3 2006 11:23pm -
0 likes
Dr. Bob
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3* Pitts -2.5
3* N England -3
2* Oak +7.5
Opinion KC +2.5/RAMS
posted by phantom
Nov. 3 2006 11:23pm