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MARK LAWRENCE
TENNESSEE over Houston by 1
Vince Young has given the Titans new energy on both sides of
the ball as evidenced by their near miss in Indianapolis and their
surprising win in Washington. Houston has covered four of the last
fi ve in this series and certainly doesn't fear a Tennessee team that
is 1-7 ATS in its last eight division home games. The now-favored
Titans have been DD dogs each of their last fi ve games.
PHILADELPHIA over Jacksonville by 7
Holy mackerel, Andy. What's a team to do? They outgain an
opponent, 506-196, and lose the game on a 62-yard fi eld goal!
Obviously, we'll need to know the status of Byron Leftwich before
we make a defi nitive call here but this game looks like one that
the Jags will have trouble winning. Yes, Jacksonville has been a
creditable underdog with 17 ATS wins in its last 24 appearances
in that role but Philadelphia counters with its 11-3 ATS log when
playing at home off BB road games. Without Leftwich, though,
Jacksonville's chances for a win are severely diminished.
3 BEST BET
Both teams probably needed last week off. After a 4-0 start,
Baltimore dropped back-to-back games against Denver and
Carolina and lost their offensive coordinator in the process.
New Orleans is coming off three straight division games plus
the emotional win over Philadelphia. Baltimore is 0-11 SU in
its last 11 road games against teams with at least one win
and New Orleans is 46-1-1 ATS in its last 48 non-division SU
wins. Mysteriously, Raven head coach Brian Billick dismissed
OC Jim Fassel and now assumes the chore. We've seen that
before. The New Orleans miracle marches on.
NEW ORLEANS over Baltimore by 10
5 BEST BET
Despite last week's win, the Bengals have been slipping a little,
mostly because of injuries to their defense. They've allowed
more yards than they've gained for the season, no thanks to
the league's 8th worst rush defense that allows 4.6 Yards Per
Rush. That defense better get healthy real quick if it wants
to stop the league's top rushing team. That's because in the
last 20 home games in which the Bengals were outrushed
they are 3-17 SU & 1-19 ATS! That's an ominous number for
a favorite with a leaky defense. Atlanta has had some great
moments this year and is in need of another.
Atlanta over CINCINNATI by 13
4 BEST BET
New England looks to be on track for another Super Bowl
run in 2006. Or, are they? They've split out against the two
winning foes they've faced this season while putting the losers
on their slate to sleep in typical Patriots' fashion. However,
Minnesota is a sterling 12-4 ATS as a non-division home dog
in its last 16 chances and is 7-3 ATS as pups under the Monday
night lights. The Vikes bring the better defense and the better
running game into this contest. They've also improved their
net team stats 32 YPG since Game 5 while the Pats have
regressed 55 YPG over the same span. New England dips to
0-8 ATS in October off a double-digit ATS win tonight.
MINNESOTA over New England by 10
Monday, October 30th
NY GIANTS over Tampa Bay by 10
Tampa catches the Giants off a Monday night game at Dallas and
that has always been a good spot for Giant opponents. After
playing in Dallas, New York is 0-8 ATS in its last eight tries. The GMen
are also a miserable 2-11 ATS in October non-division home
games and 0-6 ATS in their last six chances as home chalk of -7
or more. The Bucs, though, are just 1-10 ATS in their last 11 road
games when those trips were sandwiched between two at home.
Fact is that during Tampa's two-game win streak, they've been
outstatted in both contests – the last by over 300 yards!
CHICAGO over San Francisco by 16
The Forty Niners couldn't have picked a worse time to go out on
the road nor could they have picked a worse place to go. The scare
in Arizona has the Bears practicing feverishly to regain their edge
and they view San Francisco as the quintessential whetstone. In
their last nine regular season home games, the Bears are 9-0 SU
and 8-1 ATS without EVER allowing ten or more points in any one
game. San Fran is 4-39 ATS when held to less than 14. Clincher is
that undefeated home teams, playing at home with a week of
rest, are 14-2 ATS against a foe off a SUATS loss. Despite those
numbers, we're not keen on laying this kind of lumber.
GREEN BAY over Arizona by 4
We've decried Arizona as a terrible road team several times in these
pages and that the Cardinals are. After laying an egg in Oakland
last week, Zona is now 3-19 SU and 8-24 ATS on the road. Green
Bay may not be the better team here but the Packers are 18-1-2
ATS in their last 21 SU non-division wins and are in desperate need
of a home win. If we play this, it won't be with the Cardinals.
KANSAS CITY over Seattle by 3
Kansas City has never been a fun place for division rivals and back
when Seattle was in the same division, the Seahawks performed
miserably on this fi eld. They played 21 games here since 1980
winning only three and covering only fi ve while being favored in
just four of those 21 games (The Hawks lost all four on the fi eld).
Although Seattle isn't even in the same conference anymore, the
numbers don't get better. KC is 17-6 ATS as a non-division home
dog in its last 23 opportunities. Check status of Seahawks' QB Matt
Hasselbeck, who was injured in last week's game vs. Minnesota.
SAN DIEGO over St Louis by 8
Regarded by most experts as the most talented team in the NFL, the
Chargers take on the Rams, a team with no covers in its last seven
games against this division. San Diego has only two covers in the
last dozen game following a battle with division rival Kansas City
but the Chargers are 7-2 ATS as favorites against teams who are
coming off a bye week. Note that the Rams are 6-20 ATS in their
last 26 road games against winning teams when being outrushed,
a virtual certainty here. Problem at hand for San Diego is the loss
of star LB Merriman to suspension of steroid violation. He's the
4th Charger LB to leave the lineup this season.
Pittsburgh over OAKLAND by 7
It could be said that Oakland has little chance to win this game
since the Raiders are 1-11 SU and ATS in their last 12 tries as home
dogs. That probability is magnifi ed by Pittsburgh's 10-1 SU mark
in its last 11 road games against sub .600 teams. Now factor in
the Steelers' 89-6 ATS log in their last 95 SU road wins and this
case becomes nearly crystal clear. The fl y in the ointment is the
fact this home dog actually owns the better defense (32 yards
superior than the Steelers)! This has the aroma of a Pittsburgh
win and an Oakland cover.
CLEVELAND over NY Jets by 3
Other than the game against barefooted Oakland, Cleveland has
been unable to score more than 17 points in any game this year.
The Browns better get more than that today or another ATS loss
is likely. The Jets are 30-3 ATS as an non-division road underdog
or pick when they hold their opponent to 17 or less. Still, we don't
get real excited about the third-worst defense in the NFL on the
road, especially at this number. This fact we know: the Flyboys are
the worst winning team in the NFL and it's only a matter of time
before they pay the piper.
DENVER over Indianapolis by 4
The Colts are a sparkling 22-7 SU on the road since 2003, including
12-5-2 ATS when not favored by six or more. But, in their last fi ve
games as a road underdog, the Ponies are 0-4-1 ATS. Denver, on
the other hand, has just one non-division home loss (to Pittsburgh
in last year's AFC title game) in its last 11 chances and is 5-2 ATS in
the last seven against Indianapolis. The Broncos need the Plummer
to play well here or this one could go right down the drain. A case
of Drain-o may be on the way.
CAROLINA over Dallas by 1
We have documented many times that Carolina's preferred role is
that of the underdog and that the Panthers hover near mediocrity
when made the favorite. Their 4-14-1 ATS log as home chalk of -3
or more testifi es to that. But the Black Cats are also 7-3-1 ATS with
revenge against non-division foes and are at the top of their game
right now. Dallas has had Giant hangovers in the past with just
two covers in its last 11 games after playing the G-Men. Bottom
line is the dog is the way to look here.
posted by phantom
Oct. 24 2006 2:29pm -
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Sports Reporters NFL Best Bets
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BEST BET
*CHICAGO over SAN FRANCISCO by 28
The 49ers are certainly better than they were last year, but this is still a team that is missing
a defense, most notably a working secondary. Maybe Coach Nolan can spend his next
draft trying to find some stud corners, but until then this is a team that will give up a lot
of points every week. The Chicago Bears managed to put down the Cardinals on Monday
Night without scoring an offensive TD. In the grand scheme of things, that may have been
exactly what this team needed as the hype machine had been blowing serious smoke up
the Bears’ collective butts the entire week leading up to the Monday Night game. Rex
Grossman looked about as bad as a quarterback can look against the Cardinals, coughing
up six turnovers in all, but Lovie should have no qualms allowing Grossman to throw
against this weak group of coverage personnel. In particular, the 49ers do not have a
defensive back to match up with the speed of Bernard Berrian and Berrian is quite obviously
the receiver Grossman trusts most. Most of Grossman’s mistakes last week came
through bad throwing mechanics, with his passes being severely inaccurate. However,
the coaches have had the entire bye week to shore up those mistakes, and the Bears
should come out firing. chicage 38-10
RECOMMENDED
ATLANTA over *CINCINNATI by 4
In 2005, the Bengals’ per game rushing numbers were 27-119. This season, offensive
line injuries have hit, and the numbers are down significantly: 26-98. This wouldn’t be so
bad if Starvin Marvin’s run defense wasn’t yielding 28-133 per game this season, and
now looking at an opposing offense that does 36-232 on the ground! The Cincinnati
passing game’s forward numbers are close to the same as they were last season, but the
one big difference is in sack yardage against: 20 yards per game this season, vs. only 7
yards per game in 2005. Which is one reason why you’d need to worry about layin’ it
against Atlanta, because one of the things the Falcons do well is pressure the opposing
quarterback. They have Big Ben’s skull on a stick to prove it. Cincinnati’s jaunt to the AFC
North title in ’05 was aided by playing those lovable NFC North patsies that couldn’t move
the football on offense. Atlanta was having problems scoring in ’06 until last Sunday, but
they can usually move the ball and have been doing so for more yardage and first downs
per game than the Bengals are generating. ATLANTA, 24-20.
BEST BET
*SAN DIEGO over ST. LOUIS by 21
Told you so, or at least hinted at it. The Chiefs’ Cover-2 and hyped-up defense got to both
San Diego offensive key-men -- LaDainian Tomlinson and Philip Rivers -- early last
Sunday in what eventually became a Premier Players 3-Star game-day win against the
road-favorite Chargers. Back home off a loss, San Diego faces an opponent whose
defense was taking it away early in the season, but which seems to have fallen back to
Earth in the weeks since. The Chargers were making the fewest turnovers per game in
the NFL prior to losing it three times on offense in last Sunday’s 33-degree wind chill.
But now they’re back in the warmth of the home sun, against defensive personnel that
probably cannot be whipped into forcing them to do as many bad things as the best-laid
plans of KC’s two ex-Marty Men -- Herman’s Head and Gunther Cunningham. San Diego
is still gaining its 370+ offensive yards per game, and can get half of them on the ground
as long as they aren’t behind. Not sure if St. Louis is flatski off the byeski or not, but they
are only getting in the mid-90s per game on the ground. Putting it in the air against San
Diego’s good defense has a good chance to increase St. Louis’ NFC-least turnover rate
of .08 per game to date. SAN DIEGO, 35-14.
RECOMMENDED
PITTSBURGH over *OAKLAND by 17
Big Ben down! Again! This kid is like a bop-bag caricature of himself. The Steelers are
similar to the Bears in that they can win with good defense and a solid running game,
but to open up margins on opponents, they need turnovers and some cold-blooded bigplay
calls that haven’t been executed consistently by any quarterback other than Big
Ben. Kordell Stewart couldn’t hack it. Tommy Maddox couldn’t. Batch? He is up and down
at best, otherwise he’d be starting somewhere. However, the other side is the Raiders,
negating most negatives. Pittsburgh RB Willie Parker has emerged as a legitimate playmaker,
earning that big contract he signed, and luckily enough Oakland has the worst
run defense in the league. This should be a typical display of the Steelers way: score
some points in the first half throwing the ball, allow the blitzing defense to confuse and
disrupt the first-year QB Andrew Walter, and bleed the clock in the second half. Oakland
is quite used to the formula, featuring the worst possession-time differential in the
league. PITTSBURGH 27-10.
posted by phantom
Oct. 24 2006 2:29pm -
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Sports Reporters NFL
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2
SUNDAY, OCTOBER 29
HOUSTON over *TENNESSEE by 2
Which side does the bouncy-downy? Will it be Tennessee, off a pair of +17-point road covers
and returning home off a bye week? Or Houston, seven days after covering by +28 points
vs. Jacksonville on their home field? Probably both, since neither can play as well as they are
for an extended period, given the personnel on hand. Which leaves you with two crummy
teams in a nail-biter vs. the spread in the fourth quarter. The quarterback more likely to make
a boo-boo would be Tennessee rookie Vince Young, yet to pay his full share of NFL dues and
spending his bye weekend in Lincoln, NE with his head back in the college game. Houston
QB David Carr is still riding the presence of WRs Eric Moulds and Andre Johnson to 70%
completion games with the sack rate going down, so give him an edge against a Tennessee
defense that might play as they did when they “heldâ€
posted by phantom
Oct. 24 2006 2:30pm -
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Winning Points NFl Best Bets
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****BEST BET
Indianapolis over *Denver by 14
For the first time in four weeks, the Colts take to the road.They encounter
a Denver team that has yet to allow a rushing TD.The Broncos, in fact, have
yielded just 44 points in six games. No defense in the NFL is stingier. Plus
the Broncos are home in the high altitude with perhaps cold weather looming
hosting a dome team. So, why then are we so strong on the Colts?
Superior team that’s why. Indy is 7-1-1 ATS its past nine as road chalk.When
a challenge presents itself, the Colts bring their “Aâ€
posted by phantom
Oct. 24 2006 2:32pm -
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THE GOLD SHEET
Houston 27 - TENNESSEE 20--"Huge" game for Houston native Vince Young (1-2 as a starter) and Titan owner Bud Adams, the Houston businessman who founded the AFL Oilers, uprooted the team to Nashville, and reportedly insisted upon the selection of Young in TY's draft. Tennessee RB Travis Henry has rushed for 301 yds. last two games. But Titans haven't won two straight in nearly 3Ys, and Wali Lundy (93 yards) got Houston ground game going vs. rugged Jag defense week ago. Tenn. defense (31st in yards; allowing 26 ppg) vulnerable to vastly improved, veteran Texan QB Carr (70%, 9 TDs, only 4 ints.).
(05-Tenn. 34-HOU. 20...T.22-14 H.28/161 T.31/90 T.22/31/0/220 H.18/27/1/96 T.0 H.0)
(05-TENN. 13-Hou. 10...T.15-12 H.26/152 T.30/93 T.18/30/0/208 H.17/26/0/82 T.0 H.0)
(05-Tennessee +3 34-20, TENNESSEE -6 13-10...SR: Tennessee 6-2)
PHILADELPHIA 31 - Jacksonville 13--Philly defense led NFL in sacks with 23 thru Week Six, but had only 2 total in pair of last-second road losses at N.O. & T.B. QB McNabb had 13 TDs vs. only 2 ints. prior to last week's 3 and 3. So look for both McNabb & Eagle defenders to rebound vs. Jacksonville, whose defense is suffering important early attrition with the loss of DE Hayward & fiery MLB M. Peterson for the season. Jag QB Leftwich bothered by his ankle again.
(02-JACKSONVILLE +3 28-25...SR: Jacksonville 2-0)
CINCINNATI 21 - Atlanta 20--Tremendous contrast in QB styles, with Michael Vick (441 YR) helping his Falcs lead the league in rushing, and Bengals have two starting LBs out. However, even with the Cincy OL missing outstanding LT L. Brown & C Braham last week, the Bengals seemed to coalesce in the second half vs. the furious Carolina rush, with 6-7, 334 rookie LT Andrew Whitworth (second round, LSU) turning out to be a fine pass protector. But Vick's forays (4 TDP) last week vs. Steelers were impressive.
(02-ATLANTA -7 30-3...SR: Cincinnati 7-3)
NY GIANTS 27 - Tampa Bay 13--N.Y. defense came alive with 7 sacks of Michael Vick two weeks ago in Atlanta, so you can expect T.B. rookie QB Gradkowski, after consecutive last-minute home wins, to be in for a trying day on road. While young DE Kiwanuka & DT Cofield providing valuable depth for Giants' DL, Bucs made a move for the future by trading stalwart DT A. McFarland to Indy for a No. 2 pick. And T.B. DBs bothered by nagging injuries. Not good vs. Tiki and formidable N.Y. receivers. Giants 9-3 last 12 as home favorite.
(03-TAMPA BAY -5' 19-13...SR: NY Giants 9-6)
CHICAGO 31 - San Francisco 10--LY's meeting in the Windy City featured gusty winds, muffed punts, garish orange jerseys worn by the Bears, a Cody Pickett-vs.-Kyle Orton QB matchup, and only one completion by S.F.! Niners much better on offense now, but not on defense (32 ppg). Rex Grossman and Chicago offense eager to atone for their 6-TO game at Arizona. Bears have dominated in 3 games at home TY to the tune of 111 points to 20!
(05-CHI. 17-S. Fran. 9...C.12-9 C.40/172 S.46/133 C.8/14/1/67 S.1/13/1/28 C.3 S.1)
(05-CHICAGO -13 17-9...SR: San Francisco 30-28-1)
Arizona 26 - GREEN BAY 24--G.B.'s recent Lambeau record (4-15-2 last 21 as host!) reflects Packers' deterioration from major contender to major rebuilder. And Pack was last in pass defense thru Week Six. That should help developing rookie QB Leinart and his quality cast of receivers. Ahman Green (118 YR at Miami) returned last week. But improving Cardinal defense has 11 takeaways last 2 games! Arizona 13-6-1 "over" last 20 on road.
(03-ARIZONA +7' 20-13...SR: Green Bay 42-22-4)
KANSAS CITY 27 - Seattle 17--QB situation a bit up in the air at this writing, as Trent Green has resumed practicing for K.C., while Matt Hasselbeck was facing a more detailed knee examination as we went to press. But with Shaun Alexander still out and Chiefs able to unleash Larry Johnson for 132 YR vs. tough S.D. defense, will side with host. Three of four in K.C.'s improved DL had sacks last week. Chiefs 9-2 vs. spread last 11 at home.
(02-SEATTLE +3 39-32...SR: Kansas City 30-18)
NEW ORLEANS 23 - Baltimore 10--After seeing his offense struggle virtually all season, HC Brian Billick (was openly criticized during organization meetings after LY) has jettisoned off. coord. Jim Fassel and has re-assumed the duties he held in his final years with the Vikes and his first year with the Ravens in 1999. Still, he's limited by OL injuries and the deteriorating skills of RB Jamal Lewis (3.6 ypc) & QB Steve McNair (56%, 7 ints., only 5 TDs). Not so for Saints, with Drew Brees (67%) making quick decisions and RB R. Bush (38 recs.) & WR Colston (27) proving excellent rookie targets.
(02-New Orleans -2' 37-25...SR: Baltimore 2-1)
SAN DIEGO 31 - St. Louis 17--Rams' rookie HC Linehan has kept his word in re-emphasizing the ground game (Steven Jackson 521 YR) and reducing TOs (Rams +11; QB Bulger 10 TDs, only 1 int.). Too bad his OL (8 sacks last 2 games) is missing two starters and faces the ferocious S.D. 3-4. If reports are true that LB Shawne Merriman faces a four-game suspension, "over" might be the best way to look, considering the St. Louis receivers and Chargers' improved firepower with QB Rivers.
(02-ST. LOUIS -6 28-24...SR: St. Louis 5-3)
Pittsburgh 26 - OAKLAND 10--With Ben Roethlisberger coming off a concussion and Andrew Walter a hamstring strain, don't know who the QBs will be at this writing. But prefer to side with improving Pittsburgh offense, even with veteran backup Charlie Batch (2 TDP off the bench last week). Raiders broke their 11-game losing streak last Sunday, but still had 5 giveaways to increase their league-leading total to 20!
(04-PITTSBURGH -3' 24-21...SR: EVEN 11-11)
CLEVELAND 24 - NY Jets 17--Meeting of former N.E. assistants Romeo Crennel and Eric Mangini, with the latter starting his career under Bill Belichick as a Browns' ball boy! Somewhat remarkably, Jets have gone "over" 11 straight games! But offensively-challenged Cleveland should enjoy facing N.Y.'s low-ranked defense. Prefer defense over offense, and "over," even in Cleveland.
(04-NY Jets P 10-7...SR: Cleveland 11-7)
UNDER THE TOTAL DENVER 19 - Indianapolis 10--Mike Shanahan and Broncos seeking redemption for 2004's 49-24 humiliation in Wildcard Round in a game that was over before most Bronco fans opened their second Coors. That game came a week after the 2004 reg.-season finale, when Peyton Manning tossed only 2 passes before he and most starters called it a day. Now, Colts hoping acquisition of DT McFarland from Bucs will help their run defense yielding 158 ypg. But Denver defensive unit (only 2 TDs permitted) on an all-time roll ("under" all 6 TY).
(04-DENVER -9 33-14, INDIANAPOLIS -10 49-24 (Playoffs)...SR: Denver 11-6)
*Dallas 21 - CAROLINA 19--With Carolina once again playing 'em close (5 games decided by 3 points or fewer), will take a guarded look at Cowboys and count on the "Tuna" to come up with schemes to contain Steve Smith & Julius Peppers. Cowboys tough to run against (tops thru Week Six) and have a greater variety of impact weapons than Carolina if they can only keep Drew Bledsoe upright. TV--NBC
(05-Dallas 24-CAR. 20...D.22-13 D.41/214 C.24/71 C.14/31/1/247 D.15/23/1/180 D.1 C.1)
(05-Dallas +5 24-20...SR: Dallas 5-3)
MONDAY, OCTOBER 30
*MINNESOTA 23 - New England 20--N.E. RB Laurence Maroney returns to his old haunts. But Minny's Chester Taylor (590 YR, including 95-yarder last week) the new favorite son in the Twin Cities. And new HC Brad Childress has Vikes playing their smartest football in recent memory. WRs are not great, but improved OL and QB Brad Johnson make the most of what Vikes have. And defense is underrated in all departments--front four, LB, and secondary. No knock on Belichick, Brady & Pats, but prefer home dog. CABLE TV--ESPN
(02-NEW ENGLAND -7' 24-17...SR: New England 5-4)
MONDAY NIGHT HISTORY
New England and Minnesota on Monday Night
New England is 5-13 straight-up and 8-10 vs. the pointspread on the road on Monday Night Football;
6-8 straight-up and 5-8-1 vs. the pointspread at home on Monday Night Football.
Minnesota is 12-6 straight-up and 10-8 vs. the pointspread at home on Monday Night Football;
10-16 straight-up and 12-13-1 vs. the pointspread on the road on Monday Night Football.
HEAD-TO-HEAD MEETINGS SINCE 2000 (not necessarily Mon. night)
2002 Reg. Seas.: New England -7½ beat Minnesota 24-17 at New England
2000 Reg. Seas.: Minnesota +2½ beat New England 21-13 at New England
2006 MONDAY NIGHT RESULTS
Minnesota +4½ beat Washington 19-16 at Washington u36
San Diego -3 beat Oakland 27-0 at Oakland u43
Jacksonville +2½ beat Pittsburgh 9-0 u37½
New Orleans +3½ beat Atlanta 23-3 u43½
Philadelphia -11½ beat Green Bay 31-9 u48½
Denver -4½ beat Baltimore 13-3 at Denver u33
NFL KEY RELEASES
HOUSTON by 7 over Tennessee
PHILADELPHIA by 18 over Jacksonville
NEW ORLEANS by 13 over Baltimore
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
UNDER THE TOTAL in the Indianapolis-Denver game
posted by phantom
Oct. 24 2006 2:33pm -
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Confidential Kick-Off!! The Gold Sheet!!
11 *WISCONSIN over Illinois
Late Score Forecast:
*WISCONSIN 42 - Illinois 9
Wisconsin (7-1 SU, 6-0-1 vs. points) is having its best season since making
back-to-back Rose Bowl trips in '98 & '99. Led by an OL that averages 6-7 &
319, frosh P.J. Hill is 6th in the nation in rushing and churning out 5.8
ypc. Sr. Wiscy QB John Stocco has matured like fine wine over the last year,
throwing 17 TDP and just 3 ints. in his last 11 games (231 ypg passing last
17). The Badgers are yielding just 11.5 ppg, 4th-best in the nation, thanks
to a speedy LB crew and heady, 222-lb. sr. SS Joe Stellmacher. Illinois has
had few highlights this season beyond upset of an injured Michigan St. team
coming off ND collapse. Badger "D" will contain mistake-prone Illini QB
Isiah Williams (7 ints. last 5 games; Illinois committed 2nd-most TOs in
nation), and Stocco & Hill will cash in any mistakes. Wiscy 11-4 vs. points
last 15 at home.
10 *BAYLOR over Texas A&M
Late Score Forecast:
BAYLOR 31 - Texas A&M 24
Respected Big XII scouts urge us take generous number with ascending,
bowl-hungry 4-4 Baylor squad (no postseason since '94) that can't wait to
face old SWC rival A&M following adrenalin-rushing, 36-35 comeback win vs.
Kansas (outscored Jayhawks 19-0 in 4th Q!). Bears smart & accurate 5th-year
sr. QB Bell (63%, 18 TDP) & his topflight WR duo of 6-2 Shelton (46 catches,
7 TDs) & 6-4 Ziegler (38) should continue to excel vs. Aggie defense sans
much pass rush (just 12 sacks) and has allowed 698 YP vs. the two prolific
aerial attacks faced TY (Texas Tech & Mizzou). Meanwhile, expect a
highly-aroused Bear "D" to put 8-9 in box vs. run-oriented A&M offense.
Plus, Morriss' squad itching to avenge 16-13 OT loss LY, when it compiled 8
more FDs & 60 more yds. than Aggies, but missed 2 FGs. Outright win no
surprise.
10 BOWLING GREEN over *Temple
Late Score Forecast:
BOWLING GREEN 47 - *Temple 14
Retooled Bowling Green attack might be hard-pressed to lay another 70 points
on downtrodden Temple, as it did in each of the previous 2 seasons. But
Falcons still possess enough firepower to easily outdistance Owls, whose
ability to stay inside some much larger spreads recently mainly due to
disinterest/mercy on the part of their opponents. Temple was down 40-0 in
3rd Q at Northern Illinois last week before some late consolation scores.
Owls scored only 20 first-half points in first 8 games TY. And 16 of their
losses during current 19-game skid have been by more than 3 TDs. Bowling's
trio of exciting young skill players-athletic soph QB Anthony Turner,
emerging RS frosh RB Chris Bullock, and electric RS frosh WR/RB/QB Freddie
Barnes-will keep pedal to metal long enough to bury host, which enjoys almost
zero home-field edge at near-empty Lincoln Financial.
10 *MISSOURI over Oklahoma
Late Score Forecast:
*MISSOURI 26 - Oklahoma 13
Let's be honest. The two key players for TY's Oklahoma offense were expected
to be A-A RB Adrian Peterson and talented soph QB Rhett Bomar. Some have
said Peterson was not just the team's key player, but that he was the team.
That's going a little too far in as complex game such as football, but it
does dramatize the challenge faced by the Sooners with him out. Serviceable
backup Allen Patrick rushed 35 times for only 3 yards a carry in last week's
24-3 victory over nearly-impotent Colorado in Norman. Now, however, OU must
match points with the much more volatile Missouri attack (31.5 ppg in Big XII
play), led by fiery soph QB Chase Daniel, who has already set a new Tiger
single-season record for TD passes with 4 games, plus a bowl, still to go!
Insiders report HC Pinkel is looking for a marquee win to further boost
program.
10 PITTSBURGH over *Oakland
Late Score Forecast:
PITTSBURGH 31 - *Oakland 10
Whether it's Roethlisberger (check concussion, possible jaw injury) or Batch
at QB, Pittsburgh is still the percentage side vs. mistake-prone Oakland team
that committed 5 more giveaways last week to raise its league-leading total
to 20. And Raider QB situation even more iffy. After having problems during
their bouts with five straight contenders (Jacksonville, Cincy, S.D., K.C. &
Atlanta), Steelers pleased as punch to finally take on one of the NFL's
strugglers. Pittsburgh's ground game should get going, and many of def.
coord.'s Dick LeBeau's sophisticated blitzes should work vs. Oakland's
tentative QBs. Hines Ward is healthy again, and Steelers' maturing WR group
caught 406 yards worth of passes in last week's loss in Atlanta.
TOTALS: OVER (37) in the N.Y. Jets-Cleveland game-Improved offense and
vulnerable defense have helped Jets go "over" 7 straight TY (11 straight
overall). OVER (45) in St. Louis-San Diego game-With S.D. thin at LB,
Charger offense ready to take over, pick up slack.
HONORABLE MENTION (Nine-Rated Games): OHIO STATE (-27) vs. Minnesota-Gopher
OL, ground game isn't what it used to be; Buckeyes (7-1 vs. spread) playing
single-digit defense nearly every week. UCLA (+1.5) vs. Washington
State-Improved Bruin defense performed very well nearly the entire game in
South Bend; soph QB P. Cowan finally gets to start at Rose Bowl, where UCLA
has won 10 straight. WYOMING (+6.5) at Tcu-Rival offensive coordinators
complementing the bigger, quicker, deeper Cowboy defense; RS frosh QB Sween
has balanced the offense. HAWAII (-25) vs. Idaho-Vandals can neither contain
nor keep up with Warriors' firepower. MINNESOTA (+2.5) vs. New England
(Monday night)-Vikes defense for real; rookie HC Childress, RB C. Taylor & G
Hutchinson have given offense new confidence.
posted by phantom
Oct. 24 2006 2:36pm -
0 likes
phil steeles powerplays newsletters 4*
4*tenn. chic. jets/clev.over
posted by phantom
Oct. 25 2006 3:20pm -
0 likes
Steam Sheet NFL
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Nicky's Dynamite Dog
CANNON SHOCK
3* ATLANTA over Cincinnati by 7
That courageous win over Pittsburgh last week will carry the
Falcons to victory here. Their confidence is at an all-time high
with Michael Vick moving the team fearlessly and the relentless
Atlanta running game burying one defense after another.
It is that rush attack that has us interested today. We went
back through our database and looked at all 6,213 underdogs
in NFL play since 1980 and there has NEVER been one of more
than +3 after game two of the season that had a net yards-perrush
average of plus three or more. We think this line is way
out of whack and we're backing it up with a selection on
Atlanta. By the way, if you're interested, Cincinnati is 1-19
ATS in its last 20 home game when the other team had more
rushing yards. Bengals bite the dust again.
VICKTORY, VICKTORY IS OUR CRY 30-23!
CANNON SHOT
3* NY GIANTS over Tampa Bay by 20
I'm well aware that the Bucs beat us in this box last week. In
fact, Tampa Bay cost us a perfect 5-0 week on the Top Game
Club and hurt us in several other areas as well. It wasn't like
we had the wrong side. When you pick a road team that wins
the game by more than 300 yards and doesn't allow an
offensive touchdown, you have the right side and you're
supposed to win. We didn't but, we're coming right back
against the Bucs again. The Giants are rolling. Their defense
is mowing down everything in sight and the offensive combination
of Tiki Barber and Eli Manning has been unstoppable.
If Bruce Almighty can go out on the road with his 85 passing
yards and win this one, he's got me. Tampa Bay is 1-10 ATS
on the road between home games in its last 11 tries.
ARMY INSECTS 34-14!
Another Salvo from Nick's big gun
9
NFL SMOKE SCREEN
Tennessee over Houston by 2
After five straight games as a double-digit underdog, is Tennessee
ready to lay points? We're not sure about that but we
are sure about this: We aren't. Not with a team who has
covered once in its last eight division home games.
Philadelphia over Jacksonville by 7
Despite going 0-2 SU and ATS in its last two road games, the
Eagles are one of the league's strongest teams. Philly has won
the stats in every game but one this season. Jack's defensive
line woes really showed up in Houston and there's no reason
to believe they'll get better here. Eagles 19-6 ATS off a loss at
home in non-division play, including 12-2 ATS as a favorite.
Chicago over San Francisco by 17
The Bears laid 13 to Frisco in a similar spot last season and
became the first team in NFL history to fail to cover the spread
while allowing only ONE pass completion. Wake up call in
Arizona got Chicago's attention. Too bad for the Niners.
Green Bay over Arizona by 4
Arizona will be a tougher out than the disintegrating Dolphins,
but Green Bay's win in Miami coupled with Arizona's debasing
loss in Oakland has the confidence meter pointing towards
cheese. Zona doesn't win many road games (3-19 SU last 22)
and the Pack is 18-1-2 ATS in its last 21 SU non-division wins.
Kansas City over Seattle by 6
Without Matt Hasslebeck and Shaun Alexander, Seattle comes
in here without two of the best weapons in the game. Seneca
Wallace doesn't exactly fill us with confidence and the Seahawk
defense isn't playing lights out football. KC can do it again.
New Orleans over Baltimore by 3
We understand the frustration of the league's third-best
defense who is now off back-to-back losses but we can't back
the Ravens here. They have lost 11 in a row on the road to
teams who have at least one win and own just two covers in
that 11-game span. Saints are feelin' it. Baltimore isn't.
San Diego over St Louis by 9
The Chargers ran into a buzz saw last week in Kansas City but,
to their credit, they rallied to tie the score before a last minute
field goal did them in. Expect a faster start today against a
flock of Rams that is 2-14 SU and 3-13 ATS in its last 16 road
games against winning teams who are off a loss.
Pittsburgh over Oakland by 8
With the Steelers off a loss and Oakland off a surprising win,
a little of the line value with the Raiders has disappeared. Still,
Oakland is a home dog with the best pass defense in the
league. However, that win last week was the first as a home dog
for the Raiders in their last dozen tries.
Cleveland over NY Jets by 2
Sooner or later, the Browns are going to get over the hump.
They have played better than their record shows just as the
Jets have played worse than their record indicates. There
haven't been many 1-5 teams in NFL history who were
allowing less than 14 points per game.
Denver over Indianapolis by 4
The thought of laying points with Jake Plummer against
Peyton Manning is chilling, but Denver's defense is way better
than the Colts' and the Broncos are good at knocking down
undefeated teams. How good? Try 11-0 SU and 9-2$ since '84.
Carolina over Dallas by 3
Indications are that Tony Romo will be the Cowboy QB here.
We won't take a kid making his first road start against the
Panther defense, especially with Carolina off a loss. Still, the
Black Cats are a lowly 4-14 ATS in their last 18 as home chalk.
Minnesota over New England by 1
Powerful systems lead us to the Vikings in this despite New
England's 19-4 SU and 16-7 ATS log in its last 23 games
against NFC teams. Minnesota owns both the better defense
and the better running game, sterling qualifications for a
home dog that is looking for an upset win.
posted by phantom
Oct. 27 2006 1:33am -
0 likes
sports betting solutions
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Houston Texans @ Tennessee Titans Analysis
Run Line Bet: Tennessee Titans(h)
Tennessee -3 $550/$500
Play Against - Underdogs vs. the money line (HOUSTON) - in conference games, off an upset win over a division rival as an underdog.
(33-2 over the last 5 seasons.) (94.3%, +30.2 units. Rating = 5*)
The average money line posted in these games was: Team favored with a money line of: -137.5
The average score in these games was: Team 29.3, Opponent 19 (Average point differential = +10.3)
The situation's record this season is: (5-0, +5 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (22-1, +20.5 units).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (83-28, +33.1 units).
Since 1983 the situation's record is: (209-81, +47.8 units).
Atlanta Falcons @ Cincinnati Bengals Analysis
Run Line Bet: Cincinnati Bengals(h)
Cincinnati -4.5 $440/$400
Play On - Home favorites of -160 to -475 vs. the money line (CINCINNATI) - after allowing 14 points or less last game against opponent after a playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored.
(38-2 over the last 5 seasons.) (95%, +33.4 units. Rating = 4*)
The average money line posted in these games was: Team favored with a money line of: -230
The average score in these games was: Team 29.7, Opponent 15.1 (Average point differential = +14.6)
The situation's record this season is: (4-0, +4 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (18-0, +18 units).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (58-9, +38.2 units).
Since 1983 the situation's record is: (145-34, +66.5 units).
Arizona Cardinals @ Green Bay Packers Analysis
Green Bay -3.5 $550/$500
Play Against - Road underdogs vs. the money line (ARIZONA) - after scoring 14 points or less last game against opponent after scoring 30 points or more last game.
(32-2 over the last 5 seasons.) (94.1%, +29 units. Rating = 5*)
The average money line posted in these games was: Team favored with a money line of: -150
The average score in these games was: Team 27.1, Opponent 11.9 (Average point differential = +15.2)
The situation's record this season is: (1-0, +1 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (16-1, +14.5 units).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (74-17, +32.1 units).
Since 1983 the situation's record is: (158-66, -38.4 units).
Seattle Seahawks @ Kansas City Chiefs Analysis
Kansas City -6 $550/$500
Play Against - Road underdogs vs. the money line (SEATTLE) - after scoring 14 points or less last game against opponent after scoring 30 points or more last game.
(32-2 over the last 5 seasons.) (94.1%, +29 units. Rating = 5*)
The average money line posted in these games was: Team favored with a money line of: -150
The average score in these games was: Team 27.1, Opponent 11.9 (Average point differential = +15.2)
The situation's record this season is: (1-0, +1 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (16-1, +14.5 units).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (74-17, +32.1 units).
Since 1983 the situation's record is: (158-66, -38.4 units).
New England Patriots @ Minnesota Vikings Analysis
Run Line Bet: New England Patriots(v)
New England -2.5 $330/$300
Play On - Favorites vs. the money line (NEW ENGLAND) - off 2 consecutive wins by 10 pointsor more against division rivals, after the first month of the season.
(27-3 over the last 10 seasons.) (90%, +22.8 units. Rating = 3*)
The average money line posted in these games was: Team favored with a money line of: -141.7
The average score in these games was: Team 30.8, Opponent 17.4 (Average point differential = +13.4)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0, +0 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (6-0, +6 units).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (8-1, +6.8 units).
Since 1983 the situation's record is: (35-9, +12.6 units).
posted by phantom
Oct. 27 2006 1:36am -
0 likes
Compufun
Game of Month
Pitt
Chicago
Arizona
San Diego
posted by phantom
Oct. 27 2006 1:36am -
0 likes
Gator Report
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Here are Gator's NFL 70% Super Situations:
Play Under - Any team where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points after a loss by 6 or less points against opponent after a loss by 10 or more points. (23-4 over the last 5 seasons.) (85.2%) PLAY: Jacksonville / Philadelphia UNDER 43
Play Under - Road teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points after allowing 30 points or more last game against opponent after 2 straight games where 50 total points or more were scored. (34-9 since 1983.) (79.1%) PLAY: St Louis / San Diego UNDER 45.5
__________________
posted by phantom
Oct. 27 2006 1:36am -
0 likes
NFL HISTORY
Kansas City is 18-2 SU and 16-4$ last 20 here vs Seattle
posted by phantom
Oct. 27 2006 1:36am -
0 likes
Dunkel Index - Pro Football
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Dunkel Index - NFL
SUNDAY, OCTOBER 29
Indianapolis at Denver
The Broncos have won five straight thanks to a defense that has allowed a league-low 44 points and just two touchdowns. That unit has had to be good to make up for an offense that has yet to score more than 17 points in a game. QB Jake Plummer has completed only 52 percent of his passes with seven INTs against four TDs. But while that's been good enough to get past the offensively-challenged Ravens, Raiders and Browns in the last three weeks, it could end up hurting the Broncos against Indianapolis this weekend. The Colts have had success in recent years scoring on the Denver D as they put 41 and 49 points on the board in successive playoff wins (2004-2005). And the Indy offense was clicking last weekend against the Redskins as Peyton Manning threw for 342 yards and four TDs in a 36-22 win. The Colts look poised to take advantage of a weak Denver offense and a three-point Vegas line according to Dunkel, which has Indianapolis favored straight up by 2 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Indianapolis (+3).
Here are all of Sunday's games:
Game 401-402: Houston at Tennessee
Dunkel Ratings: Houston 117.824; Tennessee 123.724
Dunkel Line: Tennessee by 6; 43 1/2
Vegas Line: Tennessee by 3; 42
Dunkel Pick: Tennessee (-3); Over
Game 403-404: Jacksonville at Philadelphia
Dunkel Ratings: Jacksonville 127.616; Philadelphia 131.502
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 4; 47 1/2
Vegas Line: Philadelphia by 7; 42 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Jacksonville (+7); Over
Game 405-406: Atlanta at Cincinnati
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta 131.053; Cincinnati 131.919
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 1; 45 1/2
Vegas Line: Cincinnati by 4; 43 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (+4); Under
Game 407-408: Tampa Bay at NY Giants
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay 123.929; NY Giants 136.472
Dunkel Line: NY Giants by 12 1/2; 45
Vegas Line: NY Giants by 9; 40 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Giants (-9); Over
Game 409-410: San Francisco at Chicago
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco 115.225; Chicago 136.708
Dunkel Line: Chicago by 21 1/2; 37 1/2
Vegas Line: Chicago by 15 1/2; 42
Dunkel Pick: Chicago (-15 1/2); Under
Game 411-412: Arizona at Green Bay
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona 121.271; Green Bay 120.281
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 1; 45 1/2
Vegas Line: Green Bay by 4; 44 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (+4); Over
Game 413-414: Seattle at Kansas City
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle 125.399; Kansas City 130.702
Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 5 1/2; 41
Vegas Line: Kansas City by 6; 38 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (+6); Over
Game 415-416: Baltimore at New Orleans
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore 128.885; New Orleans 129.311
Dunkel Line: Even; 32 1/2
Vegas Line: New Orleans by 2; 37
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (+2); Under
Game 417-418: St. Louis at San Diego
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis 121.565; San Diego 137.629
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 16; 46 1/2
Vegas Line: San Diego by 9 1/2; 45
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (-9 1/2); Over
Game 419-420: Pittsburgh at Oakland
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh 131.136; Oakland 121.514
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 9 1/2; 36 1/2
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh by 9; 38 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-9); Under
Game 421-422: NY Jets at Cleveland
Dunkel Ratings: NY Jets 124.300; Cleveland 122.211
Dunkel Line: NY Jets by 2; 35
Vegas Line: Cleveland by 2 1/2; 38
Dunkel Pick: NY Jets (+2 1/2); Under
Game 423-424: Indianapolis at Denver
Dunkel Ratings: Indianapolis 135.248; Denver 132.669
Dunkel Line: Indianapolis by 2 1/2; 35 1/2
Vegas Line: Denver by 3; 39 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Indianapolis (+3); Under
Game 425-426: Dallas at Carolina
Dunkel Ratings: Dallas 129.248; Carolina 131.975
Dunkel Line: Carolina by 2 1/2; 37
Vegas Line: Carolina by 5; 41
Dunkel Pick: Dallas (+5); Under
posted by phantom
Oct. 27 2006 1:37am -
0 likes
Jim Ritch
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
for this play he's very very good 5-1-1
Best Bet JETSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSS
(he stole that play from me in mondays thread hahahah )
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
heres his over/unders..he finally won last week his first winning week of the season
he is 39-61 on these plays guys fade his ass..(8-5 last week )
Tampa over 41.(were supposed to have nasty ass winds here tomorrow and sunday )
pack over 44
jets under 38
kc under 38 1/2
saints under 36 1/2
colts over 39
rams over 45
panthers over 41
pitt over 38 1/2
vikes under 38 1/2
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
these are his opinion plays..hes actually good on these ones
titans over 42
jags over 43
bears under 42 1/2
cinny under 43 1/2
the bottom line is hes on good on his best bets and opinion plays..hes plain out shitty on his 10 best bets for his totals
Mighty ! Quinn
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
he suxs again this year fade away
38-56
giants..jets..texans..jags..bears..cards..seattle. .balt..sd..pitt..den..boys..vikes.
Falcons his best bet (3-4)
JIm Ritch teaser play
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
7=7 for the year
jets +8..colts + 8 1/2..saints +4..panthers + 1
posted by phantom
Oct. 27 2006 3:01pm -
0 likes
Dunkel Index - Pro Football (Sunday, Monday)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Dunkel Index - NFL
SUNDAY, OCTOBER 29
Game 401-402: Houston at Tennessee
Dunkel Ratings: Houston 117.824; Tennessee 123.724
Dunkel Line: Tennessee by 6; 43 1/2
Vegas Line: Tennessee by 3; 42
Dunkel Pick: Tennessee (-3); Over
Game 403-404: Jacksonville at Philadelphia
Dunkel Ratings: Jacksonville 127.616; Philadelphia 131.502
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 4; 47 1/2
Vegas Line: Philadelphia by 7; 42 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Jacksonville (+7); Over
Game 405-406: Atlanta at Cincinnati
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta 131.053; Cincinnati 131.919
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 1; 45 1/2
Vegas Line: Cincinnati by 4; 43 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (+4); Under
Game 407-408: Tampa Bay at NY Giants
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay 123.929; NY Giants 136.472
Dunkel Line: NY Giants by 12 1/2; 45
Vegas Line: NY Giants by 9; 40 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Giants (-9); Over
Game 409-410: San Francisco at Chicago
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco 115.225; Chicago 136.708
Dunkel Line: Chicago by 21 1/2; 37 1/2
Vegas Line: Chicago by 15 1/2; 42
Dunkel Pick: Chicago (-15 1/2); Under
Game 411-412: Arizona at Green Bay
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona 121.271; Green Bay 120.281
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 1; 45 1/2
Vegas Line: Green Bay by 4; 44 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (+4); Over
Game 413-414: Seattle at Kansas City
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle 125.399; Kansas City 130.702
Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 5 1/2; 41
Vegas Line: Kansas City by 6; 38 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (+6); Over
Game 415-416: Baltimore at New Orleans
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore 128.885; New Orleans 129.311
Dunkel Line: Even; 32 1/2
Vegas Line: New Orleans by 2; 37
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (+2); Under
Game 417-418: St. Louis at San Diego
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis 121.565; San Diego 137.629
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 16; 46 1/2
Vegas Line: San Diego by 9 1/2; 45
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (-9 1/2); Over
Game 419-420: Pittsburgh at Oakland
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh 131.136; Oakland 121.514
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 9 1/2; 36 1/2
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh by 9; 38 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-9); Under
Game 421-422: NY Jets at Cleveland
Dunkel Ratings: NY Jets 124.300; Cleveland 122.211
Dunkel Line: NY Jets by 2; 35
Vegas Line: Cleveland by 2 1/2; 38
Dunkel Pick: NY Jets (+2 1/2); Under
Game 423-424: Indianapolis at Denver
Dunkel Ratings: Indianapolis 135.248; Denver 132.669
Dunkel Line: Indianapolis by 2 1/2; 35 1/2
Vegas Line: Denver by 3; 39 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Indianapolis (+3); Under
Game 425-426: Dallas at Carolina
Dunkel Ratings: Dallas 129.248; Carolina 131.975
Dunkel Line: Carolina by 2 1/2; 37
Vegas Line: Carolina by 5; 41
Dunkel Pick: Dallas (+5); Under
MONDAY, OCTOBER 30
Game 429-430: New England at Minnesota
Dunkel Ratings: New England 132.207; Minnesota 134.841
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 2 1/2; 41
Vegas Line: New England by 2; 38 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+2); Over
posted by phantom
Oct. 28 2006 2:48am -
0 likes
Special K Sports (won 53 of 87)
PICK: BYU -8.5 (CFB Saturday
Ben Burns
CFB
Northwestern vs. Michigan
12:00 EST
I had the good fortune of being able to watch Northwestern's collapse against Michigan State on Saturday. The Wildcats took a 21-3 lead into halftime and got the ball to begin the third quarter. The Spartans' defense forced them to punt but the drive was extended by a very questionable 'roughing the kicker' call. Northwestern capitalized by finding the end zone a couple of plays later. Mere moments had passed when the Wildcats forced an interception and scored another touchdown. That made the score 35-3 and appeared to be the knockout blow. By now the Michigan-based announcers were making comments about how the Spartans had quit on their coach and how the season was a complete write-off. Someone forgot to tell the Spartans' players that though, as they would score 35 unanswered points en route to a 38-35 victory! The same announcer that been suggesting a player mutiny less than an hour before was adamant in stating: "The Spartans have found their soul!" Off that type of devastating loss and playing a road game against one of the best teams in the country, I expect the Wildcats to really struggle this week. They'll likely find themselves trailing early in the game and its going to be tough for them to keep fighting. The Wolverines have faced six straight quality opponents and have gone 6-0 SU and 5-0-1 ATS in those games. This is a significant step down in class and offers them a chance to run up the score to impress the pollsters. Look for them to take advantage by winning in blowout fashion! Take Michigan.
Tony George
CFB
Miami vs. Georgia Tech
3:30 EST
No brainer here folks, as Larry Coker has lost control of his team, needing al ate interception to defeat Duke last week while 13 players were back in Miami on suspension for a bench clearing brawl the week before. Looking at film and listening to reports, the players are giving up on him, and against Georgia Tech that spells trouble. The Yellow Jackets have the best WR in the nation in Johnson, and Reggie Baul at QB is a seasoned veteran guy who makes good decisions and is very mobile. The Hurricanes are 1-7 ATS their last 8 games and have played a patsy schedule including Duke, Florida Int., Houston, and North Carolina, and lost to the only 2 good teams they played. Georgia Tech is off a road loss at Clemson but in the hunt here in the ACC, especially with Clemson losing at Virginia Tech on Thursday, so look for the home team, who beat Miami last year 14-10, to repeat the same feat this year in Atlanta. Georgia Tech 27 Miami 17...lay the wood. Take Georgia Tech.
Carlo Campanella
Game: Arizona St. at Washington Huskies Oct 28 2006 7:00PM
Prediction: Washington Huskies
Reason: Washington, on a three-game losing streak, hosts Arizona State in this Pac 10 Conference battle on Saturday. After opening the season with a promising 4-1 mark, they lost 2 of their last 3 games, both of which came on the road against highly regarded USC and California. They are a much better team when playing in Washington, as their 3-1 Home record this season indicates and this is the perfect spot for them to return to their winning ways, as we find them at 8-2 ATS at Home when playing with revenge against an opponent that won their previous game SU&ATS. Lay the small number with Washington, as they'll get their revenge from last year's 20-44 loss against this Arizona State squad that's only 9-18 ATS when playing on the road.
7* Play On Washington
posted by phantom
Oct. 28 2006 2:52am -
0 likes
Service plays
A-Play...........................VIP: SF/Chi(O)
Animal..........................5*New Orleans
.....................................4*Atl/Cin(O)
.....................................3*Tennessee & Denver
ATS...............................7*St Louis
.....................................6*Philadelphi a
.....................................5*Green Bay
.....................................4*Carolina
Ben Burns.....................Main Event: Denver
.....................................Game Of The Week: Oakland
.....................................Personal Favorites: Cleveland
Big Al............................5*Pittsburgh & Cleveland
Blazer...........................4*New Orleans
.....................................3*NY Giants
Bobby Cash..................Game Of The Year: Cleveland
Dave Cokin...................Under The Hat: Philadephia
.....................................Window Play: Chicago
.....................................System Play: Dallas
"Doc"............................5*Tampa Bay & Philadelphia
.....................................4*Kansas City & Tennessee
.....................................3*NE/Minn(O)(Mon)
Feist..............................Inner Circle: Green Bay
.....................................Platinum: Atlanta
......................................Personal Best: St Louis
Gavazzi(PPP)................5*Denver
.....................................4*Dallas, Atlanta & NYJ/Cle(O)
.....................................3*NYJets, Atl/Cin(O), Indy/Den(U)
Glen McGrew................Best Bet: NYJ/Cle(O)
Gold Sheet....................Top: NY Giants
......................................Regular: New Orleans, StL/SD(O), NYJ/Cle(O)
Guarantee Picks............Cincinnati
Las Vegas Sports..........10*Cincinnati & Denver
Lenny Stevens..............20*Tennessee & Denver
.....................................10*Green Bay, Atlanta & Dallas
Magliosa.......................Tampa Bay & Indy/Den(O)
Northcoast.....................3.5*Pittsburgh
......................................3*Philadelph ia & Chicago
Randy Radkte................Denver & Dallas
......................................Opinions: Tennessee, Baltimore, Cleveland
ROCKY's.........................30*Cincinnati
Scotty Spreitzer.............Heavy Hitter GOY: Philadelphia
......................................TKO: Denver
Sycamore......................St Louis, Oakland, & Carolina
Texas Sp Brokers..........10*Tampa Bay 5*Seattle & Dallas
Wayne Root..................Chairman Of The Board: Cincinnati
......................................Millionaire: Baltimore
......................................No Limit: Denver
......................................Inner Circle: Arizona
......................................Source: Dallas
......................................Perfect Play: Cleveland
Winners Path................Game Of The Month: St. Louis
.....................................Also: Kansas City & NYJets
Windy City Sports.........10*Lock Of The Month: San Diego
WsieGuys......................Triple Play AFC GOY: Denver
posted by phantom
Oct. 29 2006 1:17pm -
0 likes
THIS WEEKS SIZZLIN SERVICES:
HOT:
FIEST ( 7W - 1L ):
Inner Cir-GREEN BAY
Plat-ATLANTA
Best-ST LOUIS
LANG ( 4W - 1L ):
40-INDY
10-BALT
10-ST LOUIS
10-JAX/PHILA OVER
BURNS ( 3W - 1L ):
Main Event-DENV
Personal Fav-CLEVE
Atl UNDER, Stl UNDER
COKIN ( 3W - 1L ):
Hat-PHILA
Window-CHICAGO
System-DALLAS
LENNY STEVENS ( 4W - 1L ):
20* TENN
20* DENV
10* GREEN BAY
10* ATLANTA
10* DALLAS
SIMMERIN':
ROOT ( 5W - 4L ):
Insider-ARIZ
Source-DALLAS
NO LIMIT (5-0 L5)-DENV
Mill-BALT
Chair-CINN
Perf GOY-CLEVE
ROBERTS ( 3W - 2L ):
4* DENVER
3* NEW ORLEANS
COLD:
NESS ( 1W - 3L ):
20*-TENN
Insider-PHILA
Legend-DENV
JB SPORTS ( 2W - 5L ):
3* PITT
3* DALLAS
3* INDY
MIGHTY QUINN ( 0W - 3L ):
Best Bet- ATLANTA
posted by phantom
Oct. 29 2006 1:18pm -
0 likes
Red-Hot Big Al's Monday Nite Mauling -- Big Al Swept the Board Here on Both Saturday and Sunday
Handicapper: Big Al McMordie
League: NFL
Event: New England Patriots vs Minnesota Vikings on 10/30/2006 at 17:30
Condition: Minnesota Vikings
Grade: Ungraded
Promotion: At 8:30 pm, our selection is on the Minnesota Vikings plus the points over New England, as the Patriots fall into a negative 18-51 ATS system. What we want to do is play against any road team off 3 straight wins and covers, if they're matched up against a winning team and the spread is less than 4 points. The Pats come into this game off 3 SU/ATS wins over Cincy (38-13), Miami (20-10) and Buffalo (28-6) and are a small favorite over Minnesota, who has a 4-2 record this year. Last year, home underdogs suffered through a terrible season, but this year, perhaps because the oddsmakers have over-compensated, NFL home dogs are covering at a 60% clip (25-15 ATS). The Vikes are a solid 25-8 as Home Pk/Dogs since 1985 and we'll take Minnesota tonight. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie
posted by phantom
Oct. 30 2006 2:00pm -
0 likes
Marc Lawrence NEVER LOST Monday Night Killer Play!
Handicapper: Marc Lawrence
League: NFL
Event: New England Patriots vs Minnesota Vikings on 10/30/2006 at 17:30
Condition: Minnesota Vikings
Grade: Ungraded
Promotion: Play On: Minnesota Vikings Note: Vikings have fared well as dogs under the Monday Night lights, cashing in 7 of their L10 tries while the Patriots are 0-8 ATS in October in games off DD SUATS wins. The kicker is the fact that Monday Night visitors, playing off three SUATS wins in a row, are 0-6 SUATS if they won the last game by more than 10 points. Stay at home with the Viking here tonight
posted by phantom
Oct. 30 2006 2:00pm -
0 likes
DAVE'S PATRIOTS-VIKINGS MONDAY NIGHT PLAY!
Handicapper: Dave Cokin
League: NFL
Event: New England Patriots vs Minnesota Vikings on 10/30/2006 at 17:30
Condition: Minnesota Vikings
Grade: Ungraded
Promotion: The Vikings are 4-2 and there's some real excitement about this team after they snapped the lengthy home winning streak of Seattle a week ago. The Vikes have been in every game this season and will take the field at home with plenty of confidence even against powerful Patriots. New England was supposed to be down a notch from the championship level this season, but apparently no one told Bill Belichick. Nevertheless, this is a major trap spot for the Pats. There's a good angle that tells us to play against a road favorite that is off a road win vs. a divisional opponent. Plus, the Patriots have a huge game with Indianapolis on deck. If they're going to lose one, it's right here. I'm taking the Vikings to come away with the win and cover.
posted by phantom
Oct. 30 2006 2:01pm -
0 likes
COKIN ( 5W - 2L )
FIEST ( 9W - 2L )
LENNY STEVENS ( 8W - 2L )QUOTE]
SEBASTIAN (1-1) CLEVE-W, CIN-L
NESS (1-2) DEN-L,TENN-W, PHIL-L
COMPUFUN (2-2) PITT-L, CHI-W, ARIZ-L, SD-W
PRIORITY SPORTS (0-1) RUT-L
OTL SPORTS COMP (1-0) TB/NYG U -W
ROCKETMAN (1-0) GB-W
ROCKY'S TOTALS (4-1) TENN O-W, CHI U-L, KC O-W, SD O-W, CIN O-W,
NE U-PENDING
MIGHTY QUINN (8-4)
JIM RITCH (5-6) ON ALL HIS TOTALS PLAYS (1-3) OPINIONS/ (4-3)
BB TOTALS-NE U-PENDING
SCORESANDODDS POWERPLAYS (5-0) NFL, (4-4) NCAAF
GAMBLERSWORLD TIP O DAY (1-0) NYG
GOLD KEY-SILVER PLAY, SPORTS MONITOR FREE PICK, TONY K FREE PICK ALL WENT (0-1) INDY U
posted by phantom
Oct. 30 2006 2:01pm -
0 likes
Larry Ness Premium Subscription
Handicapper
Larry Ness All Sports 2006-10-31
League Selection # Matchup Selection Odds Result
nfl 317481 New England vs. Minnesota Under 39.5 / -110.0 NA
Despite excellent seasons from both QB Brad Johnson (62.9%) and RB Chester Taylor (590 YR / 21 catches), the Vikings have not scored much, averaging just 20.0 PPG (including LW's 31-point effort in beating Seattle). However, the D has been great, ranking 7th in yards allowed and 6th in PPG (15.8 PPG). Minnesota is 4-2 SU and 5-1 ATS entering this game. The Pats are 5-1 SU and 4-2 ATS and enter this game with a five-game road winning streak (going back to LY) in which they are also 5-0 ATS, outscoring opponents 156-64! Brady lost his top-two receivers TY (Branch and Givens) and his passing numbers are down. Last year NE was No. 2 in passing yards as Brady threw for over 4,000 yards but this year the Pats are just 22nd in pass yards plus Brady has a much lower than usual 56.1% completion rate. However, NE's running game is superb with Maroney and Dillon plus dangerous 3rd-down back Faulk. Both defenses match up well in this spot (NE allows just 13.3 PPG). Minny owns the No. 1 rushing D in the league (70.8 YPG) and NE has the 6th-best (83.8 YPG). While both pass D's have given up yards, both have also allowed just four TDs apiece! Minny's pass rush has gotten nine sacks the last two games, which only makes its 2ndy better! Brady is a perfect 9-0 in domes in his career and with NE's current road winning streak, I hesitate to go against the Pats. However, the Vikes are a new team under Childress and I fully expect them to play this game close. That being said, the 'under' is the safer play. 15* NE/Min Under.
posted by phantom
Oct. 30 2006 2:02pm -
0 likes
Norm Hitzges
Double Play--Minnesota +2 vs New England
pointwise late phones
2* vikings
docs
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3 Unit Play. #130 Take Over 38½ in New England @ Minnesota (Monday 8:30 pm ESPN) The Patriots enter the Midwest with hopes of distancing themselves from a weak AFC East Division. The strength of both teams lies with the offense, as the Vikings put up 31 points @ Seattle and the Patriots put up 28 points in Buffalo. Both teams like to throw the football and that set up well for the over with clock stoppages and face paced style of offense. This will be a close game throughout, so we will not worry about who wins this game and just collect with the over. New England 23, Minnesota 21.
Rocky's Totals
MINNESOTA - NEW ENGLAND UNDER 38.5
Dr. Bob
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3*----minn
sports betting solutions
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New England Patriots @ Minnesota Vikings Analysis
Run Line Bet: New England Patriots(v)
New England -2.5 $330/$300
Play On - Favorites vs. the money line (NEW ENGLAND) - off 2 consecutive wins by 10 pointsor more against division rivals, after the first month of the season.
(27-3 over the last 10 seasons.) (90%, +22.8 units. Rating = 3*)
The average money line posted in these games was: Team favored with a money line of: -141.7
The average score in these games was: Team 30.8, Opponent 17.4 (Average point differential = +13.4)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0, +0 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (6-0, +6 units).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (8-1, +6.8 units).
Since 1983 the situation's record is: (35-9, +12.6 units).
Bettors World Key Releases
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4* Vikings +2 over Pats
Jim Rich
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vikes & under 38 1/2
__________________
Hilton Contest
Vikes were tied for #2
__________________
The real animal
Vikes (hilton contest play )
__________________
Van Winkel Sports
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New England -2
__________________
Gator Report
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Game: New England @ Minnesota
Time: 8:30 PM Eastern
TV: ESPN
Line: New England -1 (39.5)
Trends & Angles:
New England is 17-4 against the number on the "fake stuff", 11-4 ats as road chalk, 12-2 ats versus NFC opponents, 5-13 straight up on MNF, 8-10 ats on the highway on MNF, 0-7 ats off double digit s/u and ats win, 1-4 ats off a s/u and ats road chalk win, 10-2-1 ats versus non conference opponents, 5-0 ats on the highway on the fake stuff after an away game.
Minnesota is 12-4 against the number as a non division home short, 7-3 ats as short on MNF, 19-6 ats as home short overall, 14-2 ats off an upset win as a road short, 11-4 ats off two or more straight up wins, 8-1 ats versus opponent off straight up road chalk win, 5-0 ats at home between road games, 12-0 ats off a straight up win as a road short, 7-0 ats after winning and covering their last two games, 7-0 ats as a home short when their opponent is on a 3+ game winning streak.
SYSTEMS:
"Play On" any Monday Night Football underdog that has won their last two games against the number. 16-6-2 ATS (73%) since 1994
__________________
Newsletter plays
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Marc Lawrence
4* Minny by 10
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
sports reportersMONDAY NIGHT, OCTOBER 30
NEW ENGLAND over *MINNESOTA by 2
Despite the Monday Night hypola, this non-conference road game would be one of the least
important games of 2006 for the 5-1 Patriots, who are 4-0 in the AFC East already. But hey,
best record in the AFC is still something to shoot for and somebody will lose the 6-0 at 5-1
Indy at Denver game on Sunday, right? The Pats are 5-2-1 ATS on the road vs. NFC foes since
2002. The Vikings are 6-2 ATS home vs. AFC foes in the same span. Be grateful for that
cheat-sheet wash, which forces you to look elsewhere for clues. Two very good offensive
lines create another push within the match-up. Do you factor rookie Laurence Maroney’s
return to the building where he played college ball? Maybe. The Patriots’ #2 RB is definitely
a factor in New England’s 34-135 rushing numbers in 2006, a serious improvement from 27-
94 in ’05. That kind of production could probably beat the Vikings at their own game, with
New England currently near the NFL top in offensive plays per game (65) and forcing caretaker
Brad Johnson to lead productive drives on all Minnesota series, which caretaker Brad
is not known for. Grant (Blow Me Away for a 95-Yard Rushing TD Against Seattle) Wistrom
does not work for the Patriots’ run defense. NEW ENGLAND, 22-20.
__________________
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Winning points Close call
New England over *Minnesota by 1 (Monday)
Minnesota has no sex appeal.That’s a good thing compared to past Vikings
squads. Under Brad Childress, they have become a fundamentally sound
team with a much improved defense. The Vikings are holding foes to
around 70 yards rushing a game and only around 3.0 yards per attempt.
With Pat Williams and Kevin Williams patrolling the middle of the defensive
line, don’t look for big rushing performances from Corey Dillon and rookie
Laurence Maroney. Until bursting out against Seattle, though, Minnesota
had just four touchdowns on offense in five games.The Patriots have posted
five consecutive road wins. NEW ENGLAND 21-20.
New England at Minnesota – The Patriots defeated the Vikings, 24-17, at
home in 2002.
__________________
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
The Gold Sheet
MINNESOTA 23 - New England 20--N.E. RB Laurence Maroney returns to his old haunts. But Minny's Chester Taylor (590 YR, including 95-yarder last week) the new favorite son in the Twin Cities. And new HC Brad Childress has Vikes playing their smartest football in recent memory. WRs are not great, but improved OL and QB Brad Johnson make the most of what Vikes have. And defense is underrated in all departments--front four, LB, and secondary. No knock on Belichick, Brady & Pats, but prefer home dog. CABLE TV--ESPN
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Power Sweep
4* New England
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Red Sheet
Near Choices Minny
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Kevin O.neill
Tech Play of the Week.
Monday, October 30, 2006
Kevin’s Monday Night Special
New England (-3) over @Minnesota
Like the direction that the Vikings are heading in,
and we had them on Sunday. The Vikes played well
off their bye but benefited from a number of things.
A 3-0 turnover advantage, the injury to Hasslebeck
forcing Seneca Wallace into the game, a busted
coverage on a 3rd & long play for a 42-yard TD pass,
a bizarre 95-yard TD run by Chester Taylor where
he was stuffed at the line and busted outside, and a
defensive TD to put the game away in the 4th.
While we like the Vikings it will be difficult for them
to get the breaks two weeks ago. Brady is starting
to get in a real groove with his receivers and Corey
Dillon and Laurence Maroney are a formidable duo,
with Maroney now effectively using his
explosiveness on kick returns. Pats are used to
playing in big games and are simply the superior
team here. Patriots by 7.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Steam Sheet
Minnesota over New England by 1
Powerful systems lead us to the Vikings in this despite New
England's 19-4 SU and 16-7 ATS log in its last 23 games
against NFC teams. Minnesota owns both the better defense
and the better running game, sterling qualifications for a
home dog that is looking for an upset win.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
posted by phantom
Oct. 30 2006 2:06pm -
0 likes
phil steele northcoast personal play 3 star is new england-1,this is a stronger play than his monday night magic 2 star,these plays hit 70 per cent last year,and are over 70 per cent the last 4 or 5 weeks after a slow start this year,same strength as a 3 star late phone ...
Gamblers world Tip Of the Day
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TIP OF THE DAY
Sport: NFL Football
Game: OCT 30/8:30PM New England Patriots vs. Minnesota Vikings
Prediction: New England Patriots
Current Line: -3
Over/Under: 36.5
Reason: The Metrodome will play host to a game between the New England Patriots
and Minnesota Vikings on Monday.
Oddsmakers currently have the Patriots listed as 3-point favorites
versus the Vikings, while the game's total is sitting at 36½.
The Patriots easily defeated Buffalo 28-6 as a 5.5-point favorite last
week. The combined score fell UNDER the posted over/under total (36.5).
Tom Brady threw for 195 yards with two touchdowns and Corey Dillon
rushed for 47 yards on 14 carries with a pair of touchdowns.
The Vikings cruised past Seattle 31-13 as a 6.5-point underdog last
week. The combined score went OVER the posted over/under total (40.5).
Chester Taylor rushed for 169 yards on 26 carries, including a 95-yard
touchdown run. Brad Johnson completed 15-of-24 passes for 171 yards with
a touchdown.
Current streak:
New England has won 3 straight games.
Minnesota has won 2 straight games.
Team records:
New England: 5-1 SU, 4-2 ATS
Minnesota: 4-2 SU, 5-1 ATS
New England most recently:
When playing in October are 7-3
When playing on turf are 10-0
After outgaining opponent are 5-5
When playing outside the division are 5-5
Minnesota most recently:
When playing in October are 5-5
When playing on turf are 6-4
After outgaining opponent are 7-3
When playing outside the division are 6-4
A few trends to consider:
New England is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games on the road
New England is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
New England is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
New England is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Minnesota is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games at home
Minnesota is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games
Minnesota is 8-2 SU in its last 10 games at home
Minnesota is 11-4 SU in its last 15 games
Next up:
New England home to Indianapolis, Sunday, November 5
Minnesota at San Francisco, Sunday, November 5
__________________
LT's lock
Todays Selection: The Vikings +1'
Current streak: 5 wins
__________________
Special K Sports
15* NE
John Ryan
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Ryan's MNF 5* MONSTER Game of the Month
Ryan is coming off a HUGE weekend in CFB and the NFL. He won his 10* AFC Game of the Year and now his proven Ai Simulator has identified a 5* MONSTER play for MNF. This play is backed by a 23 year winning system that has hit 76% ATS. Plus, angles and matchup analysis showing you why this play will win comfortably. Pay only when it does win ATS.
Minnesota
__________________
posted by phantom
Oct. 30 2006 2:09pm -
0 likes
Monday, October 30
New England Patriots -1.5 (10 Units)
The New England Patriots are probably one of the only teams in the NFL you can trust when it comes to all out performances all the time. They are the only team that doesn't rely on super ego maniac players to show up on Nationally televised games (thanks for the drop on 4th down last week TO). At first glance, the line does seem a bit odd because it opened at -3 and has since dropped to -1 all week and then back up a little bit this morning. The public has been getting smashed on all Sunday Night and Monday Night games and now it seems that the only logic for all Minnesota backers is to 'FADE THE PUBLIC'. Well it works most of the time but not tonight. Sure the Patriots have the Colts game in the back of their minds next weekend but business is business and it's time to take care of some tonight. Tom Brady is sensational indoors and he was talking this week about how much he loves the turf as opposed to the 'Sandbox' he plays in when he is at Gilette Stadium. I don't think he has ever lost on a Monday Night or on turf for that matter and I'll get into his numbers for both a little bit later on. The Patriots are averaging 30.0 points per road game this season on 349.0 total yards of offense and 5.5 yards per play away from home. Minnesota's defense has been solid all season at home allowing only 16.3 points per game and only 271.0 total yards and 4.6 yards per play. Did I mention those games were against Detroit, Chicago and Carolina? Put me asleep please. On the ground, RB's Corey Dillon and Laurence Maroney should have a good game. Dillon loves the indoors averaging 86.0 rushing yards per game in his indoor career as opposed to 75.9 yards per game outdoors. I know the Vikings allow only 58.0 rushing yards on 2.9 yards per carry at home but none of the teams they have faced here are anything like the tandem of Maroney and Dillon. In the air, QB Tom Brady is the man indoors. Listen to this. Brady has played 8 indoor games in his career and he has a QB Rating of 103.9 indoors as opposed to 87.0 outdoors. He completes 67.4% of his passes indoors for 8.3 yards per pass attempt and 15 TD's. Impressive to say the least because Minnesota are good on defense but they have yet to face a complex offense like the New England offense. The Pats are not afraid to go for it on 4th and short and they have been doing it all season. What I really like about this team is that they are converting 52.4% of third down chances on the road. This is a game the Patriots must win in case they can't beat Indianapolis next Sunday Night.
The Minnesota Vikings know that they have to have their best game as a young team if they want any chance of beating the Pats in this one. Sure the Vikings look pretty damn good this season and sure they are off to a great start but much like the Saints yesterday, will the good stuff wear off once they play a good defensive team like the Pats on a Monday Night where the Patriots have been cash money? I think so. I am not quite sure why the number opened so low but like I will explain a little bit later, the books know that the Patriots can easily win this game and for whatever reason, they are in a giving mood tonight and want people to win some cash back. The Vikings have won two of the last three regular season wins against the Patriots but when you look back at the stats, Brady played in only one of those games and the Pats won easily at home. The Vikings have impressed this season but if you look at their common opponents with the Patriots, you see that New England smashed Buffalo in Buffalo by a score of 28-6 while the Vikings went into Buffalo and lost 17-12 to the Bills. I don't usually compare common opponents but this one has to be pointed out. The Vikings average only 19.3 points per game at home on only 329.0 total yards and 5.4 yards per play. New England's defense is allowing only 12.0 points per road game this season and have allowed only 290.7 total yards per game on 5.3 yards per play away from home. On the ground, RB Chester Taylor is #2 in NFL Rushing but he's overrated. He had a few big runs that boosted that number. Otherwise, he averages only 34.5 rushing yards in 4 Monday Night appearances for 3.0 yards per carry and I don't see him doing anything against a Pats defense allowing only 65.7 rushing yards per road game. In the air, QB Brad Johnson has been lights out and he has veteran experience. However, Monday Nights are not his thing as he has a QB Rating of 78.5 in 12 Monday Night games but an 85+ Rating on Sundays in his career. Also, Johnson has thrown 30 INT's in 35 games versus AFC teams compared to 76 INT's in 97 games versus the NFC. New England does allow 7.0 yards per pass attempt on the road but as long as they limit the Vikings to only a few big plays, they should be able to fend them off on 3rd down as the Vikings are converting a pathetic 27.9% of third downs at home. Minnesota is also scoring touchdowns only 22.9% of the time one inside the Red Zone at home which is a disaster in games like this. The Patriots have 10 sacks on the road and I expect them to be all over Johnson tonight. The Vikings haven't been in a game like this all year and young teams don't perform well on Monday Nights.
Vegas knows exactly what they are doing with this game...they are giving everyone a big time freebie. After screwing all the Jets, Steelers, St. Louis, Carolina and New Orleans backers on Sunday, it's time get people feeling good about themselves again even though heavy public plays have crashed and burned almost all season. I saw so many threads of people who said that the Monday Nighter was gonna be their last straw so Vegas wants you to rejuice on this one. They do that knowing that we are in line for something like 20 straight days of footall to bet on as there is College Football tomorrow (Tuesday) to keep the week alive. No trap here guys. Free money.
Trend of the Game: The Patriots are 3-0 ATS as a road favorite of 2 or less points since the arrival of Tom Brady (winning by a combined 33 points).
New England 23, Minnesota 16
posted by phantom
Oct. 30 2006 2:29pm -
0 likes
Tonight's team & side winners...full trend analysis
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Here is what the in-depth trends are showing for over/unders against the spread with both of these teams. The key trends are very one-sided that playing the under is the absolute right call for tonight's game.....
Over/Under Trends for New England:
Under is 4-0 in Patriots last 4 games following a ATS win.
Under is 5-1 in Patriots last 6 games as a favorite.
Under is 12-4-2 in Patriots last 18 games as a favorite of 0.5-3.0. U
nder is 6-2 in Patriots last 8 games overall.
Under is 5-2-2 in Patriots last 9 games as a road favorite of 0.5-3.0.
Going against you:
Over is 4-1 in Patriots last 5 Monday games.
Over/under trends for Minnesota:
Over/Under trends for Vikings:
Under is 6-0 in Vikings last 6 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.
Under is 6-0 in Vikings last 6 games following a SU win of more than 14 points.
Under is 6-1 in Vikings last 7 Monday games. Under is 5-1 in Vikings last 6 games as an underdog of 0.5-3.0.
Under is 10-3-1 in Vikings last 14 games as an underdog. Under is 6-2-1 in Vikings last 9 games on Turf.
Under is 5-2-1 in Vikings last 8 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Under is 17-7-1 in Vikings last 25 games overall. Under is 11-5-1 in Vikings last 17 home games
Picking the game trends.....
Patriots are 20-8-1 ATS in their last 29 road games.
Patriots are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as a road favorite.
Vikings are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games as a home underdog of 0.5-3.0
With all that being said I think NE is a very solid play right behind the Under
Plays for tonight:
NE-1
Under 40
Tease NE +5, Under 46
NE 21, Min 10
keep it real and keep it smart
-Indysnake
posted by phantom
Oct. 30 2006 2:32pm -
0 likes
northcoast-three star phil steele personal play new england-1,two star monday night magic new england-1-,one star marquee play new england under 40
posted by phantom
Oct. 30 2006 5:47pm -
0 likes
The Force is with the New England patriots -1
Monday night
posted by phantom
Oct. 30 2006 5:48pm -
0 likes
SERVICES RANKING COLLEGE / NFL PICKS
1. A-PLAY 10-NE
2. ATS 4- NE
3. BANKERS 300- NE
4. BIG MONEY NE
5. BLAZER 3- NE
6. CAROLINA SPORTS 3- MN
7. DOC'S ENTERPRISES 3- over
8. DR. BOB 3- MN
9. FRIENDS OF MIKE LEE Pass
10. GAMEDAY op: NE
11. HEADQUARTERS Pass
12. INSIDE INFO 2- over
13. J.B. 3T Pass
14. LENNY STEVENS 3T 10-MN and under
15. LT PROFITS 1 2- under
16. NATIONWIDE (GOLDSHEET) Pass
17. NERI Pass
18. NORTHCOAST 2- NE, Top op: over
19. POINTWISE 2- MN
20. PREFERRED PICKS 2 3- MN
21. PRIVATE PLAYERS 2- MN, 1- over
22. SCORE 200- NE
23. SYCAMORE NE
24. UNDERDOG 3T Pass
25. WILDCAT Pass
posted by phantom
Oct. 30 2006 7:45pm