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Marc Lawrence
IOWA over N Illinois by 14
Iowa is not as good as past Hawkeye editions but there is no
less courage and tenacity on this team than on the better Iowa
clubs. They battled a better Michigan squad tooth-n-nail before
succumbing late in the contest last week, thanks to an eye-raising
call by the Zebras on the Wolves' fi nal drive. A win here will go
toward improving Iowa's bowl prospects and the Hawkeyes will
get it. But a blowout win is not a sure thing. Iowa left a ton of
emotion on the fi eld in Ann Arbor and could be a bit unfocused
on this day. NIU tries and plays hard. Kirk Ferentz's 15-2 ATS mark
as a double-digit home favorite keeps us at bay.
Thursday, October 26th
Clemson over VIRGINIA TECH by 3
Since 1990, Virginia Tech has been a home dog eleven times. That
tells you what kind of program this school has. That they covered
all but one of those 11 games tells you what kind of coach they
have. Tech will play as hard as they can and open the playbook
as wide as they can to try to derail the Tigers. The only problem
for the Hokies is that Clemson is better, especially at the QB
position. Still, won't fade VPI on its home fi eld in this situation,
not with Clemmie off that big double-revenge win over Georgia
Tech last week.
TULSA over Texas El Paso by 17
It's no secret that Tulsa has had this game circled on its calendar
since last November. A 41-38 loss to the Miners was the only blip
in a 7-1 fi nish last year and the Hurricanes, to a man, felt that
they gave away the game. Now, they want it back. In case you
haven't noticed, Tulsa has covered 15 of its last 19 games and is
12-0-1 ATS in the last 13 games when scoring 28 or more (which
UTEP's defense allows this year). With the Big Wind allowing just
5.3 PPG on their home turf this year, we can only look their way
tonight.
BOSTON COLLEGE over Buffalo by 36
This is the classic case of the disinterested favorite. Coming off
an emotional game at Florida State and with conference title
contender Wake Forest dead ahead, the Eagles will have little or
no interest in this game. (FYI: teams who upset the Seminoles are
11-20-1 ATS in their next game). It won't cost them in the league
standings or in the national rankings. They'll win the game but
covering that enormous impost is a different story. BC will be
shuffl ing in the scrubeenies as soon as the game is comfortably
put away. Dilemma comes from the SMART BOX telling us to fade
the Bulls. You make the call.
Wake Forest over N CAROLINA by 10
To us, Wake Forest is the most surprising team in the nation and
to us, no one gets more out his players than Jim Grobe. On the
other hand, John Bunting, the coach of one of the country's most
disappointing teams, gets very little out of his players. For that
reason alone, we can't look at the Heels, especially with Wake
standing at 24-2 ATS in its last 26 SU conference road wins. Heels
haven't covered (0-8-1 last nine) in a long time and have been
pined and tarred in their last 35 home losses, going 4-31 ATS.
Notre Dame over Navy by 13
The Irish got another of their incredibly fortunate bounces when
Navy QB Brian Hampton's leg bounced into two pieces in the
Rutgers game. Without Hampton, Navy's offense has the speed and
deception of a sinking aircraft carrier. Notre Dame should win this
easily but, with the Irish on a 1-9-1 ATS run, we're not interested
in laying the large number. Despite the fact the Dame is 1-15-1
ATS as a favorite in games off back-to-back wins in which they
are outrushed, we can't honestly look at the other side without
its main torpedo.
VIRGINIA over NC State by 3
The Wolfpack gave its fans a reason to hope with back-to-back
upset wins over Boston College and Florida State but, just as
quickly, dashed those hopes with successive losses to Wake Forest
and Maryland, games it should have won. Now, the defl ated
Wolves travel to rejuvenated Virginia who has rallied behind a
freshman QB to once again be competitive. You know we would
rather have a happy home dog than a sorry road favorite.
Florida St over MARYLAND by 13
How the mighty has fallen. Florida State had its hands full at
home last week when they fell to Boston College, and they've
managed wins in only fi ve of their last 13 games. As such this line
looks loaded with value as we note FSU has been a double-digit
favorite here each of its last six visits, laying an average of more
than 27 PPG! All the numbers say Florida State, too, including the
8-3 ATS log in the last 11 meetings with the Terps and the 13-1 SU
mark in the last 14. With a win here, Bobby's boys return home
for four straight games to conclude the season where they'll be
aching to make things right on the reservation. Toss in Mary's 1-14
ATS mark in their last 15 SU home losses and we've got our Value
City game of the week.
CINCINNATI over Syracuse by 10
Syracuse played Louisville tough for a half before breaking down
after the break and succumbing to the relentless Louisville pressure
on both sides of the ball. Cincinnati did exactly the same thing
two weeks ago. However, the Bearcats did it in Louisville and they
fi nished a lot closer to a win than the Orange did. No exCuse for
the Juicemen's 0-12 ATS log as a conference road dog of 11 or
less points. Because of that and Cincinnati's superior offense and
defense, we can only look at the Queen City kids in this one.
MICHIGAN over Northwestern by 34
After fi nally putting together their fi rst solid half of football
(actually two and one half quarters) in weeks and building a
seemingly comfortable 28-point lead against decaying Michigan
State, the Wildcats' worst nightmare was realized. They blew
it. They'll have no such luxury (big lead) in this game and can't
honestly be expected to have much energy. Still, not interested in
a Michigan team that will be on cruise control here.
WISCONSIN over Illinois by 20
The Badgers could have fallen into a trap at Purdue last week but,
instead, continued to play shut down-defense while scoring more
than enough to win and cover against the Boilers. More of the
same might be coming here. But that line is a mountain and Juice
Williams has enough weapons to sneak in the back door, if Zook
doesn't get in the way. The truth is the Illini are a lot better than
their 2-6 SU record indicates as they've actually won the stats on
six occasions. The problem is Wisky's aforementioned defense.
Michigan St over INDIANA by 7
The Spartans saw the 2005 late season collapse being reenacted on
the fi eld in Evanston last week and fi nally showed some character.
Down, 31-3, Michigan State outscored Northwestern 38-7 over the
last quarter and a half to even up at 4-4 on the year. It marked the
biggest comeback in NCAA Division 1-A history. While that was
going on, Indiana was watching its recent resurgence get blown to
pieces in Columbus. With a slight edge in talent and a huge edge
in momentum, we lean to the momentarily revitalized Spartans.
Bowling Green over TEMPLE by 16
Struggling Bowling Green is probably looking forward to playing
winless Temple. The BeeGees had high hopes for this season until
the injury bug decimated them. They still have more talent than
the sorry Owls. If Temple could muster enough emotion to win
a game this year, this might be it. The Hooters were massacred
70-7 last year by BG and would love to return the favor. A 63-
point Temple win is out of the question. A Temple win is not.
Remember, the Owls are 9-0-1 ATS as double-digit home dogs
versus an opponent off a double-digit loss.
Vanderbilt over DUKE by 10
Duke laid it all on the line against a Miami team that continues
to embarrass its alumni on a regular basis. The Dukies just missed.
They were on the Miami three with three seconds left before
throwing a game-ending interception. Still, the Blue Devils are
1-9 ATS in their last ten non-ACC home games and currently on a
3-26 SU run. Vanderbilt's one cover as a road favorite since 2001
was here. Vandy is 24-2 ATS in its last 26 SU road wins. Then again,
Vandy as a double-digit road favorite??
AIR FORCE over Byu by 3
This is the next Game of the Year for the Air Force. The fi rst
one was a 24-17 loss to Navy. The next one after this is the
November 11th date with Notre Dame. The Force is 8-1 ATS
as conference home dogs and 29-6 ATS as a dog in games in
which they outrush their opponent, including 14-1 ATS when
seeking revenge (Check our INCREDIBLE STAT OF THE WEEK
on page 3 for more on this subject). BYU checks in at 3-15 ATS
in its last 18 games against .500 or better avengers. We'll fade
the Stormin' Mormons off their homecoming romp.
GAME OF THE WEEK UPSET UPSET
MIAMI OH over Ball St by 6
Two of the league's most dynamic QB's face off here. Miami's
Mike Kokal is the league's total offense leader and Nate Davis of
BSU was recently atop the nation's pass effi ciency standings. The
difference here is Miami's defense, 130-some yards more stingy
than Ball State's. The RedHawks are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 as
home chalk and 47-17 ATS in their last 64 SU wins. They're also
9-0 ATS in Game 9's the last nine seasons.
KANSAS ST over Iowa St by 7
Two middle of the pack Big Twelve teams that are struggling to
get to a bowl, any bowl, meet in Manhattan today. Iowa State is
8-3-1 ATS in its last 12 as road dogs and has turned the tide in the
series. After losing four in a row to K-State by an average of 45
points each, the Cyclones have won the last two meetings by 14
and 28 points.
4 BEST BET
Texas was lucky as hell to beat Nebraska last week. The Horns
got a game-winning fi eld goal following a Nebraska fumble
as the Huskers were trying to run out the clock and close
the game. They know it and so do we (The Huskers were
our PERFECT SYSTEM PLAY OF THE YEAR). That makes their
current run 31-2 SU, including 16 road win in a row. Don't tell
anyone, but these are not your typical Red Raiders runabouts.
Texas Tech has held six opponents to season low-yardage this
season. They also own the nation's 3rd ranked passing offense
which fi ts rather nicely into Texas' 83rd ranked pass defense.
Last year's 52-17 setback in Austin was the 3rd-worst of head
coach Mike Leach's career. He remembers it, as we recall our
AWESOME ANGLE OF THE WEEK (page 2), too. Short Horns.
TEXAS TECH over Texas by 6
3 BEST BET
The Gators are coming off a loss in which they didn't allow
a single offensive touchdown and will be extremely angry
here. Florida coach Urban Meyer has not lost back-to-back
games since the 2002 season at Bowling Green and we don't
think he'll lose this. Still, Mark Richt is very good at getting
his team to play competitively away from the 'hedges' where
his troops are 26-8 SU & 20-13-1 ATS away from Athens,
including 3-0 ATS as dogs of four or more points. Furthermore,
double-digit conference dogs with a win percentage of .600
or better, playing off three consecutive ATS losses, are 26-11
ATS when coming off a conference clash. While the Dawgs
have struggled of late, Florida's slippage is more dramatic
considering their team net yardage is down 145 YPG over
their last three games as opposed to their fi rst four. Grab the
points in this overlay.
Florida over Georgia by 3
Army over TULANE by 1
Let's fi rst dismiss an idea of an Army look-ahead to Air Force. The
Cadets are 7-0 ATS in the last seven games immediately preceding
a game with the Pilots and need every win they can muster. We
cannot dismiss the fact that the Soldiers have scored just 16 ppg
on the road this year or that Tulane is 20-4-2 ATS at home when
holding its opponent to 21 or less. Tulane's Lester Ricard is the
best player on the fi eld. Bottom line is we can't trust the Wave in
their fi rst favorite role of the season.
Texas A&M over BAYLOR by 1
The Aggies are a home-loving crew and the anticipation of playing
their next two games at home sometimes leads to fl at efforts
on the road. To be specifi c, Texas A&M is 0-10 ATS on the road
with a pair of home games on deck. Baylor, though, is just 13-26
ATS at home with revenge and 24-43 ATS in its last 67 tries as an
avenging underdog. Still, with the Aggies having slipped 73 YPG
net in Games 5-8, we'll set the trap with the Bears here today.
PURDUE over Penn St by 3
Purdue's offense was throttled by Wisconsin and, if the
Boilermakers don't watch out, Penn State might do the same. The
Lion defense gives up ground grudgingly and has allowed just 17
ppg in conference play since the start of the 2004 season. Purdue
has covered only seven of its last 20 league games and only six
wins against winning conference teams in its last 20 games. Penn
State is 8-2 ATS in its last ten SU wins. Purdue "D" is horrible, but
we must still respect Joe Tiller's mission-dog role.
OHIO ST over Minnesota by 31
Ohio State just takes these Big Ten "other guys" and abuses them
mercilessly. After two thrilling victories over Illinois and Iowa,
Indiana went strutting into Columbus and limped home a 44-3
loser. The Hoosiers never had a chance. Minnesota is better than
Indiana, but not much. The Gophers are a stunning 10-1 ATS as
double-digit dogs against foes who are off BB SUATS wins but a
miserable 1-12 ATS in their last 13 SU losses. And if you hadn't
fi gured it out yet, Jim Tressel is the answer to this week's TRIVIA
TEASER
W MICHIGAN over E Michigan by 17
Western would have rather played this game three weeks ago
when the Emus were without QB Tyler Jones. The kid makes a
difference and you will see Eastern's offensive numbers increase
from here on out. It might not be enough against the rock-solid
Bronco defense, currently ranked as the nation's 15th-best,
especially since Western Michigan has a pretty good QB of its
own. While this looks to be a lot of points to lay in a blood
rivalry we'll do it with Western's 7-0 ATS mark as home chalk
off a SUATS win.
Auburn over MISSISSIPPI by 16
Unlike the home dog below, this one has no redeeming graces.
Ole Miss has lost and failed to cover each of the last fi ve meetings
with Auburn in Oxford and has just three wins in its last 18 SEC
games, including 12 straight losses against opponents who are
better than .400. Auburn may have turned the corner with
that win over Florida but this is a team who can lose badly to
outmatched opponents on occasion. In other words, Aubbie can't
be trusted, even against a Rebel that is 0-8 ATS at home off a
SUATS conference loss.
Tennessee over S CAROLINA by 7
South Carolina has only two wins over Tennessee in the last 14
meetings (one last year in Knoxville as 13-point dogs) and doesn't
appear to have the fi repower to win this. The Gamecocks have
faced two of the SEC's elite, both at home, and lost by seven and
eighteen points. Tennessee 9-3 ATS in its last dozen tries as road
favorites and 47-13 ATS in its last 60 SEC road wins. Carolina has
shown a little more spunk with Syvelle Newton at QB but the
bottom line is this is major revenge and the Vols have the horses
to pull the plow. Look for the visiting team to improve to 8-1 ATS
in this series.
Southern Cal over OREGON ST by 10
After piling up 50 against Arkansas in the season opener, it looked
like Southern Cal hadn't lost a piston from last year's high scoring
machine. Since then, the Trojans haven't topped 28 and the wins
have been tenuous to say the least. However, USC has had tons
of success on this fi eld with only one loss since 1963 here and the
Trojans are 30-6-3 ATS in their last 39 SU road wins off an ATS loss.
Don't know if we want this home Beaver, yet we're not enthralled
with this overused prophylactic either.
WASHINGTON over Arizona St by 1
Washington was on a little bit of a roll and full of confi dence
until Oregon State came to town and whipped the Huskies from
start to fi nish. Now, after another loss at California, the Dogs limp
home to face an equally disappointed team in Arizona State. The
numbers are horrible on both sides. Washington is 4-14-1 ATS in
its last 19 tries as home chalk and Arizona State is just 7-13 ATS in
its last 20 away games. You can pick your poison here.
KENT ST over Ohio by 10
Who's the hottest team in the MAC? It's Kent, without a
doubt. The Golden Gang rebounded from back-to-back losses
to Minnesota and Army to open the season with fi ve straight
wins to go to the top of the league standings. The reason is
Justin Edelman. The dual-threat sophomore QB gives Kent
State a chance to win against any conference opponent. That
also gives KSU a chance to cover here. Ohio is 1-13 ATS in its
last 14 SU losses and 0-6 ATS away off back-to-back wins. Flash:
lay the points!
UTAH over Unlv by 24
If Unlv could pick the spot on its schedule when it wanted to play
Utah, we doubt very seriously if this would be it. The Utes are not
only the best play within this week's SMART BOX, they are also
back home steaming after back-to-back road losses at Wyoming
and at New Mexico. In the latter loss, Utah blew a 24-3 lead in one
of its worst conference losses in recent history. Since Utah is 85-20-1
ATS in its last 106 SU wins and has beaten Unlv ten times in a row,
there is no cause to play this Rebel. Johnny Yuma - RIP.
NEVADA over New Mexico St by 20
Nevada has made trips to Reno anything but fun for its opponents.
The Wolfpack is 12-2 SU and ATS in its last 14 home games and,
going into last week's game with San Jose State, was a perfect
12-0 ATS in its last dozen home wins. New Mexico State has an
exciting offense but the Aggies can't stop anybody and usually
fall to pieces (2-6 ATS last eight) on the road. Can only trust the
numbers and the superior team in this.
MARSHALL over Memphis by 7
One of the more humorous stories in college football this year
is the Joe Lee Dunn dismissal. Tommy West, the Memphis coach,
was so distraught after the Tigers blew a big lead at East Carolina
that he fi red Dunn, his defensive coordinator. Since then, Memphis
has allowed 1414 yards and 102 points - and that doesn't even
count the Tulsa game. However, until Marshall's win and cover
against UAB last Saturday, the Herd hasn't cashed a ticket since
last November. No thanks.
COLORADO ST over New Mexico by 6
The loss of three defensive starters during the Air Force game hurts
an already suspect Colorado State defense. With the blooming of
New Mexico's new starting QB Donovan Porterie, who threw for
350 yards and three touchdowns in the Lobo's comeback win over
Utah, the Rams need all the help they can get on the stop unit. The
Wolves are 8-0 ATS as road dogs of +3 or more off back-to-back
wins and are perfectly capable of the upset today. This just in from
ItsHotAsHellDownHere.com - the last 6 games in this series have
been decided by an average 6.66 PPG!
SAN JOSE ST over LA Tech by 10
With Jose standing at 31-2 ATS in its last 33 SU wins, you'd better
think that Louisiana Tech is going to win the game before you
back the Bulldogs. Since Tech is 5-14 SU and 4-15 ATS in its last
19 road games, that would be a diffi cult assumption to make. It
becomes even more diffi cult when you learn that Jose is 17-4 SU
and 15-6 ATS as a favorite, including 9-1 ATS in its last ten tries as
chalk. Do we know the way? We might.
MISSISSIPPI ST over Kentucky by 3
If you look at these two from an offensive perspective, Kentucky
wins in a rout. But, as you well know, there are two sides to the
line of scrimmage and Mississippi State is far better on the other
side. Kentucky has only fi ve SEC wins in its last 23 games under
Rich Brooks but two of them are against this team. Mississippi
State has four SEC wins in its last 37 tries, one against Kentucky.
These two go at each other like Cats and Dawgs.
HOUSTON over C Florida by 10
Last year, Houston was unable to stop Central Florida's running
game and lost by two in Orlando. That might be the case again as
the Cougar run defense ranks 69th in the nation and has been torn
to pieces by the lesser running games of LA Lafayette and Southern
Miss. While the Knights haven't been all that Golden this season,
they fi t the bill in this week's LEAN ON ME handicapping article on
page 2. Houie's 3-14 ATS mark as a double-digit favorite in games
off a SUATS win (8 straight losses) anchors those thoughts.
TOLEDO over Akron by 3
At the beginning of the season, we fi gured both of these teams to
be in the MAC title hunt. Instead, they are the league's two most
disappointing teams. Toledo is 7-1 ATS at home off back-to-back
road games but the Rockets have played nothing like the teams
that posted those marks. Nonetheless, since that win at NC State,
Akron has been anything but impressive and they have lost fi ve in
a row in this series. Should've been the league's most important
game of the year. It's not.
Miami FL over GEORGIA TECH by 1
Talk about a revenge game! Last year, Georgia Tech went buzzing
into Miami as an 18-point underdog and beat the Canes 14-10
stopping a eight-game Hurricane winning streak. Now, Miami gets
a chance to return the favor and, with the one-game suspensions
already served, will have a full complement of weapons. That
doesn't mean that the Bumblebees will be outmatched. Calvin
Johnson outmatches everyone he plays against - and he was shut
out last week! Nonetheless, the media-battered Canes are 5-1
SUATS as a dog under Larry Coker and need a convincing win.
Oklahoma over MISSOURI by 3
The favorite in this series is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings and
the Sooners have been the favorite in all but three of the last
30 meetings, 27 of which they won. Missouri still hasn't proven
anything to us. The Tigers rode a bushel of turnover touchdowns
to a win at Texas Tech and lost at Texas A&M. Those are the only
two winning teams Mizzou has faced this season. Oklahoma will
come without its main weapon, though. They'll need to ride a
defense that has held its last four foes to season low yards.
Colorado over KANSAS by 3
Kansas has won eight straight home games against .333 or worse
opposition and is a powerful 30-2 ATS in its last 32 SU revenge
wins. Colorado is 5-30 ATS in its last 35 SU losses and 4-11 SU in its
last 15 road games against .375 or better opponents. Don't get too
excited about travelling the yellow brick road until you understand
that Colorado is 20-4 SU in this series (last fi ve in a row by nearly
14 points per game) and is vastly superior defensively. Oh yeah,
in those last 24 games in the series they have been the underdog
four times. They won all four straight-up.
Nebraska over OKLAHOMA ST by 4
The Cornhuskers battled defending national champion Texas
tooth-n-nail in Lincoln last week and, one would think, would be
on an emotional downer in this game. But Nebraska is 5-1 ATS in
its last six games following games with Texas and is 8-2 ATS in its
last ten tries as road favorites. Oklahoma State has not played a
team of this caliber this season and might get pushed around a
little bit here. Cowboys 7-4 ATS last 11 as home dogs.
RUTGERS over Connecticut by 17
How about them Knights! They've risen from the ashes to the elite
as they reside atop the Big East conference standings along with
fellow undefeated colleagues Louisville and West Virginia. Rutgers
pushed UConn all over the fi eld last year (won by more than 200
yards) but won by just two points. Rutgers is better than it was
last year. Connecticut isn't. We like the 40-13-1 ATS mark posted
by Rutgers in its last 54 SU wins. The Knights will win this.
Sunday, October 29th
UCLA over Washington St by 3
Two really diffi cult road games might make it hard for Ucla to
come out hard and tough in this spot and it has been both hard
and tough for the Bruins in this series. Washington State has
covered fi ve in a row and has played surprisingly well against
winning competition this season. Ucla has decidedly the better
defensive team (78 YPG) but their stats are beginning to decline.
Bruins chip in at 12-4 ATS as home dogs, including 9-2 ATS against
a foe off a win.
5 BEST BET
TCU dominated the Mountain West last season and every one
of the league's teams is looking for revenge. BYU and Utah
have already gotten theirs. Now, it's Wyoming's turn. What
do the Cowboys bring in the way of credentials? How about
the nation's number one pass defense and third-best overall
defense. They've held no less than six opponents to season
low - or 2nd low - yardage this year while clawing their way
back to the .500 barrier (two overtime losses). The Horned
Frogs have some instability at QB and their defense isn't
nearly as good as Wyoming's. Bad situation for a favorite of
this size. Especially one that is 4-16 ATS as home chalk against
a .666 or less foe seeking revenge, including 0-7 ATS when
the opposition allows less than 25 PPG. Cowboys lasso a win
as another homecoming favorite bites the dust.
Wyoming over TCU by 10
S MISSISSIPPI over E Carolina by 1
Southern Miss has pretty much owned this series with seven covers
in the last eight meetings but the Pirates are better than they've
been in a while and could cause some trouble here. ECU is 7-1
ATS in its last eight tries as a road dog and are a strong 14-4 ATS
under Skip Holtz. James Pinkney is clearly the best QB on the fi eld
and he could make the difference. ECU is coming off a fi ve-game
home stand and that's surely a concern. Bottom line, though, is
we won't fade this revenge-minded pointspread machine.
HAWAII over Idaho by 21
After those two track meets in Fresno and in Las Cruces, Hawaii is
probably glad to be home in Oahu today. Hawaii is 62-13 ATS in its
last 75 SU wins and has covered 9 of the last 12 as home favorites.
Add a 13-2 ATS log in favor of the Rainbows when they post at
least 28 on the board and there might be a potato mashing in
the Pineapple Patch this week. Huge number kind of turns us off,
though, as the Potato Heads are playing their spuds off and are
4-0 ATS in conference play under Dennis Erickson. They were also
smashed, 24-0, by the Grass Skirts last year.
ALABAMA over Florida Int'l by 21
Here's an incredible stat for you: Alabama is 1-11 ATS in its last dozen
home games against losing teams and 1-8 ATS in its last nine as home
chalk. Fortunately for the Tide, they catch the Panthers without
several members of their team due to the suspensions meted out
after the "Melee in Miami". Not interested in either side.
TROY over N Texas by 11
This is the epitome of Sun Belt football. North Texas has the worst
offense in Division I football and Troy ranks among the nation's
bottom 25 on both sides of the ball. Since Troy is 36-3 SU in its last
39 home games and North Texas is 2-19 ATS in its last 21 SU losses,
the Trojans would be the side we'd play if we had to choose.
Arkansas St over FLA ATLANTIC by 7
After getting zipped by Louisiana Lafayette, the Owls aren't
looking too good against a surging Arkansas State team. No home
fi eld advantage exists for the Raptors, a fact proven by their 1-6
ATS log in their last seven here, and they have only three SU wins
in their last 14 games. Arkansas State is a perfect 8-0 ATS in its last
eight SU road wins, so we can't fade the Tribe in this.
Mid Tenn St over LA LAFAYETTE by 6
Middle Tennessee has allowed just six points total in its two league
games this season and will be looking for revenge in Cajun Country
tonight. MTSU 8-2 ATS in its last ten road revenge games and has
had an extra week to get ready for a team that managed only a
pair of fi eld goals against lowly Florida Atlantic last week. With
Lafayette's dismal 1-9 ATS log in its last ten as conference home
chalk, we'll be wearin' our blue jeans to this dance.
ARKANSAS over LA Monroe by 36
Wow! After upsetting Auburn nearly a month ago, the Hogs have
faced Division I-AA SE Missouri, Mississippi and now, Louisiana
Monroe. Tough to fi nd an offense in that bunch. This Monroe team
hasn't hit the 20-point mark all season long and doesn't fi gure to
do so today. Arkansas is 11-4 ATS when allowing less than 21.
posted by phantom
Oct. 24 2006 2:27pm -
0 likes
Sports Reporters College Best Bets
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RECOMMENDED
*IOWA over NORTHERN ILLINOIS by 8
As forecast, Northern Illinois decided to give RB Garrett
Wolfe somewhat of a rest last week as he carried only 17 times against Temple before
leaving in the third quarter. Instead, NIU tried to get its passing game in gear as both of
its QBs throw for two TDs. Iowa's passing offense is not really in sync currently as Drew
Tate doesn't have a consistent ground game to take some of the heat off him. With two
SU MAC losses already, Northern Illinois' chances of reaching the conference title game
are slim at best so NIU should take this non-conference game very seriously, probably a
bit more than the host. Both teams suffered similar blowouts against Ohio State (NIU by
23, Iowa by 21) so talent gap isn't as big as some might think. IOWA, 26-21.
RECOMMENDED
*MARYLAND over FLORIDA STATE by 4
Just think what this Florida State season would be like if the Seminoles got beat (as they
should have) in the early-season game against Troy? As it is, the ‘Noles are 4-3 SU and
sagging badly with QB Drew Weatherford’s INT-for-a-TD last week against weekend the
killer play and that’s the point: Florida State seems to make just that one play here or
there to sink ’em and so it’s all aboard the Terrapin express here with kicker Dan Ennis
(four FGs in last week’s win against NC State) the front-and-center guy here. Maryland
QB Sam Hollenbach often is kept under wraps by boss-man Ralph Friedgen but you can
bet dollars-to-donuts here that Florida State makes more miscues on offense in this ACC
clash. Take those points, ladies and gents. MARYLAND, 22-18.
RECOMMENDED
*INDIANA over MICHIGAN STATE by 2
Michigan State answered the question of whether it had given up on the 2006 season by
erasing a 35-point second-half deficit, the largest deficit overcome in NCAA history. But
that momentum still won't help the Spartans' leaky secondary cover Indiana's James
Hardy, who had a breakout game against Iowa two weeks ago. Michigan State wouldn't
have been in that 38-3 hole in the first place if it could have contained a Northwestern
offense that had totaled 26 points in its three previous games. IU QB Kellen Lewis will
find a lot more room to maneuver against this defense than he did last week against Ohio
State. MSU coach John L. Smith goes back on the hot seat. INDIANA, 28-26.
RECOMMENDED
BOWLING GREEN over *TEMPLE by 11
Anthony Turner hasn’t made a seamless transition to QB for
Bowling Green and his inconsistency is a big reason why as he has seven TDs and five
INTs in six games this season. This is far from the same BG team that put up 70 points
against Temple each of the last two seasons and got 67 TD passes over those two campaigns
from former QB Omar Jacobs. We told you last week in our RECOMMENDED winner
on Temple about the reinstatement of WR-KR Travis Shelton, and it was his seven
receptions for 204 yards and two TDs (plus a two-point conversion catch) that made the
ATS difference in a 22-point loss to Northern Illinois. True, Bowling Green and the linemakers
definitely are forewarned about him, but it won't matter that much with the
Falcons' leaky defense. BOWLING GREEN, 30-19.
BEST BET
TEXAS over *TEXAS TECH by 21
Texas should adopt the Pat Benatar classic “Hit Me With Your Best Shotâ€
posted by phantom
Oct. 24 2006 2:30pm -
0 likes
Sports Reporters College
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
4
THURSDAY, OCTOBER 26
*VIRGINIA TECH over CLEMSON by 1
Do not expect Clemson’s Thunder and Lightning RBs James Davis and frosh C.J. Spiller to
run roughshod on this field against a Virginia Tech team that’s fighting for its New Year’s Day
bowl life (see five January bowls in the past seven years for the Hokies). Virginia Tech TB
Brandon Ore is fresh off career-best 207-yard rushing game and his team gets last laugh.
VIRGINIA TECH, 24-23.
FRIDAY, OCTOBER 27
*TULSA over UTEP by 13
If you looked closely enough then you noticed that the Tulsa Golden Hurricane did slip into
the BCS Top 25 standings last week (at #25) and that’s just the start of things for this stillunderrated
team. Tulsa has won/covered its last five games in a row and QB Paul Smith – he
was 17-of-20 passing for 217 yards and a touchdown against Memphis in last week’s 35-
14 triumph – remains a low-risk/high-reward player. TULSA, 34-21.
SATURDAY, OCTOBER 28
RECOMMENDED
*IOWA over NORTHERN ILLINOIS by 8
As forecast, Northern Illinois decided to give RB Garrett
Wolfe somewhat of a rest last week as he carried only 17 times against Temple before
leaving in the third quarter. Instead, NIU tried to get its passing game in gear as both of
its QBs throw for two TDs. Iowa's passing offense is not really in sync currently as Drew
Tate doesn't have a consistent ground game to take some of the heat off him. With two
SU MAC losses already, Northern Illinois' chances of reaching the conference title game
are slim at best so NIU should take this non-conference game very seriously, probably a
bit more than the host. Both teams suffered similar blowouts against Ohio State (NIU by
23, Iowa by 21) so talent gap isn't as big as some might think. IOWA, 26-21.
*BOSTON COLLEGE over BUFFALO by 36
There’s a break in the action here for gunslinger Boston College who’s pushed all the right
buttons this year save for one last-gasp pass in Raleigh. The 6-1 BC Eagles turn more enemy
turnovers into points here and get in some much-needed rest for QB Matt Ryan and his two
sore ankles. BOSTON COLLEGE, 43-7.
WAKE FOREST over *NORTH CAROLINA by 11
Exhibit A is a Wake Forest team that’s cashed four in a row (the Demon Deacons had a bye
last weekend). Exhibit B is a North Carolina squad that’s failed to cash all six of its on-theboard
games. It’s bye-bye Bunting soon enough but the problem here is there’s no value with
a Wake crew whose style doesn’t produce many wide-margin games and sometimes relies
too heavily upon star kicker Sam Swank. WAKE FOREST, 27-16.
NOTRE DAME over NAVY by 13 (at Baltimore)
Navy is without star QB Brian Hampton who’s gone for the year with a knee injury. Navy is a
stealth-like 10-3-1 ATS as dogs the past three-plus year and inside runner FB Adam Ballard
has ability to chew clock/yards. but Irish is tough to run on as proven last week when ND
yielded just 26 rushing yards to a UCLA team that led most of the way. NOTRE DAME, 26-13.
NORTH CAROLINA STATE over *VIRGINIA by 7
Chuck Amato probably needs seven wins and a bowl to keep him in discussions about ’07
and so this again becomes “must-winâ€
posted by phantom
Oct. 24 2006 2:31pm -
0 likes
Confidential Kick-Off!! The Gold Sheet!!
11 *WISCONSIN over Illinois
Late Score Forecast:
*WISCONSIN 42 - Illinois 9
Wisconsin (7-1 SU, 6-0-1 vs. points) is having its best season since making
back-to-back Rose Bowl trips in '98 & '99. Led by an OL that averages 6-7 &
319, frosh P.J. Hill is 6th in the nation in rushing and churning out 5.8
ypc. Sr. Wiscy QB John Stocco has matured like fine wine over the last year,
throwing 17 TDP and just 3 ints. in his last 11 games (231 ypg passing last
17). The Badgers are yielding just 11.5 ppg, 4th-best in the nation, thanks
to a speedy LB crew and heady, 222-lb. sr. SS Joe Stellmacher. Illinois has
had few highlights this season beyond upset of an injured Michigan St. team
coming off ND collapse. Badger "D" will contain mistake-prone Illini QB
Isiah Williams (7 ints. last 5 games; Illinois committed 2nd-most TOs in
nation), and Stocco & Hill will cash in any mistakes. Wiscy 11-4 vs. points
last 15 at home.
10 *BAYLOR over Texas A&M
Late Score Forecast:
BAYLOR 31 - Texas A&M 24
Respected Big XII scouts urge us take generous number with ascending,
bowl-hungry 4-4 Baylor squad (no postseason since '94) that can't wait to
face old SWC rival A&M following adrenalin-rushing, 36-35 comeback win vs.
Kansas (outscored Jayhawks 19-0 in 4th Q!). Bears smart & accurate 5th-year
sr. QB Bell (63%, 18 TDP) & his topflight WR duo of 6-2 Shelton (46 catches,
7 TDs) & 6-4 Ziegler (38) should continue to excel vs. Aggie defense sans
much pass rush (just 12 sacks) and has allowed 698 YP vs. the two prolific
aerial attacks faced TY (Texas Tech & Mizzou). Meanwhile, expect a
highly-aroused Bear "D" to put 8-9 in box vs. run-oriented A&M offense.
Plus, Morriss' squad itching to avenge 16-13 OT loss LY, when it compiled 8
more FDs & 60 more yds. than Aggies, but missed 2 FGs. Outright win no
surprise.
10 BOWLING GREEN over *Temple
Late Score Forecast:
BOWLING GREEN 47 - *Temple 14
Retooled Bowling Green attack might be hard-pressed to lay another 70 points
on downtrodden Temple, as it did in each of the previous 2 seasons. But
Falcons still possess enough firepower to easily outdistance Owls, whose
ability to stay inside some much larger spreads recently mainly due to
disinterest/mercy on the part of their opponents. Temple was down 40-0 in
3rd Q at Northern Illinois last week before some late consolation scores.
Owls scored only 20 first-half points in first 8 games TY. And 16 of their
losses during current 19-game skid have been by more than 3 TDs. Bowling's
trio of exciting young skill players-athletic soph QB Anthony Turner,
emerging RS frosh RB Chris Bullock, and electric RS frosh WR/RB/QB Freddie
Barnes-will keep pedal to metal long enough to bury host, which enjoys almost
zero home-field edge at near-empty Lincoln Financial.
10 *MISSOURI over Oklahoma
Late Score Forecast:
*MISSOURI 26 - Oklahoma 13
Let's be honest. The two key players for TY's Oklahoma offense were expected
to be A-A RB Adrian Peterson and talented soph QB Rhett Bomar. Some have
said Peterson was not just the team's key player, but that he was the team.
That's going a little too far in as complex game such as football, but it
does dramatize the challenge faced by the Sooners with him out. Serviceable
backup Allen Patrick rushed 35 times for only 3 yards a carry in last week's
24-3 victory over nearly-impotent Colorado in Norman. Now, however, OU must
match points with the much more volatile Missouri attack (31.5 ppg in Big XII
play), led by fiery soph QB Chase Daniel, who has already set a new Tiger
single-season record for TD passes with 4 games, plus a bowl, still to go!
Insiders report HC Pinkel is looking for a marquee win to further boost
program.
10 PITTSBURGH over *Oakland
Late Score Forecast:
PITTSBURGH 31 - *Oakland 10
Whether it's Roethlisberger (check concussion, possible jaw injury) or Batch
at QB, Pittsburgh is still the percentage side vs. mistake-prone Oakland team
that committed 5 more giveaways last week to raise its league-leading total
to 20. And Raider QB situation even more iffy. After having problems during
their bouts with five straight contenders (Jacksonville, Cincy, S.D., K.C. &
Atlanta), Steelers pleased as punch to finally take on one of the NFL's
strugglers. Pittsburgh's ground game should get going, and many of def.
coord.'s Dick LeBeau's sophisticated blitzes should work vs. Oakland's
tentative QBs. Hines Ward is healthy again, and Steelers' maturing WR group
caught 406 yards worth of passes in last week's loss in Atlanta.
TOTALS: OVER (37) in the N.Y. Jets-Cleveland game-Improved offense and
vulnerable defense have helped Jets go "over" 7 straight TY (11 straight
overall). OVER (45) in St. Louis-San Diego game-With S.D. thin at LB,
Charger offense ready to take over, pick up slack.
HONORABLE MENTION (Nine-Rated Games): OHIO STATE (-27) vs. Minnesota-Gopher
OL, ground game isn't what it used to be; Buckeyes (7-1 vs. spread) playing
single-digit defense nearly every week. UCLA (+1.5) vs. Washington
State-Improved Bruin defense performed very well nearly the entire game in
South Bend; soph QB P. Cowan finally gets to start at Rose Bowl, where UCLA
has won 10 straight. WYOMING (+6.5) at Tcu-Rival offensive coordinators
complementing the bigger, quicker, deeper Cowboy defense; RS frosh QB Sween
has balanced the offense. HAWAII (-25) vs. Idaho-Vandals can neither contain
nor keep up with Warriors' firepower. MINNESOTA (+2.5) vs. New England
(Monday night)-Vikes defense for real; rookie HC Childress, RB C. Taylor & G
Hutchinson have given offense new confidence.
posted by phantom
Oct. 24 2006 2:36pm -
0 likes
Here are this weeks E-Report 70% Super Situations:
Play Against - Road favorites of 3.5 to 10 points a good offensive team (28-34 PPG) against an average defensive team (21-28 PPG) after 7+ games. (56-24 since 1992.) (70%) PLAY: Baylor +4.5
Play Over - Any team against the total with an opportunistic defense -forcing 2.75 or more turnovers/game, after 4 consecutive games where they forced 3 or more turnovers. (43-17 since 1992.) (71.7%) PLAY: Texas / Texas Tech OVER 55.5
posted by phantom
Oct. 25 2006 3:14pm -
0 likes
power sweep
4 byu
3 kent st
3 nebraska
2 washington
2 tennessee
2 oklahoma
4 new england
3 pittsburgh
2 jets
2 baltimore
underdog miami fl
3 texans u 42
3 falcons o 43'
3 colts u 37'
2 jets o 37
2 ravens u 37
posted by phantom
Oct. 25 2006 3:19pm -
0 likes
phil steeles powerplays newsletters 4*
4*virg. mary. wisc. byu. pur.(+3 or more) ohio st. wash. marsh. missi.st. okla.
color. neb. mdtst. ark.
4*tenn. chic. jets/clev.over
posted by phantom
Oct. 25 2006 3:20pm -
0 likes
Bob Harmon Forecast
Games for Oct. 26 - Oct. 29
*Alabama 38 Florida International 8
Arizona State 26 *Washington 24
*Arkansas 44 Louisiana-Monroe 11
Arkansas State 21 *Florida Atlantic 16
Akron 24 *Toledo 23
Auburn 31 *Mississippi 11
*Boston College 43 Buffalo 7
Bowling Green 33 *Temple 16
BYU 32 *Air Force 24
*Cincinnati 26 Syracuse 16
Clemson 24 *Virginia Tech 19
*Colorado State 28 New Mexico 19
*Florida 29 Georgia 18
Florida State 24 *Maryland 21
*Georgia Tech 22 Miami (Fla.) 20
*Hawaii 50 Idaho 22
*Houston 39 Central Florida 17
*Iowa 32 Northern Illinois 18
*Kansas 25 Colorado 19
*Kansas State 24 Iowa State 22
*Kent State 26 Ohio 18
Kentucky 23 *Mississippi State 20
*Louisiana-Lafayette 24 Middle Tennessee 21
*Marshall 24 Memphis 22
*Miami (Ohio) 27 Ball State 26
*Michigan 42 Northwestern 7
Michigan State 23 *Indiana 23
*Missouri 28 Oklahoma 22
Nebraska 27 *Oklahoma State 25
*Nevada 37 New Mexico State 23
Notre Dame 31 *Navy 19
*Ohio State 42 Minnesota 12
*Purdue 26 Penn State 25
*Rutgers 32 Connecticut 13
*San Jose State 29 Louisiana Tech 21
Southern California 34 *Oregon State 18
*Southern Miss 27 East Carolina 22
Tennessee 21 *South Carolina 20
Texas 34 *Texas Tech 26
Texas A&M 29 *Baylor 21
*TCU 26 Wyoming 16
*Troy 22 North Texas 15
*Tulane 24 Army 22
*Tulsa 37 UTEP 20
*UCLA 26 Washington State 23
*Utah 36 UNLV 13
Vanderbilt 25 *Duke 16
*Virginia 20 N.C. State 18
Wake Forest 26 *North Carolina 21
*Wisconsin 35 Illinois 10
*Western Michigan 33 Eastern Michigan 17
posted by phantom
Oct. 25 2006 4:18pm -
0 likes
PPP Free Plays
Saturday, October 28
IOWA (-16) over N. Illinois by 23
NIU RB Wolfe has been held to just 70 TY L2G. Won't get any better against an Iowa defense that allowed Michigan to rush for just 88 yards LW. Despite the potential letdown from that loss, be aware that Iowa has one of the strongest home fields in the Nation, standing 24-7 ATS as HF. But with loss to Indiana still fresh in their mind, don't expect them to look past NIU. Both teams have underachieved at 5-3 SU, 1-6 ATS. Huskies have done it against arguably the Nation's easiest schedule.
BOSTON COLLEGE (-35) over Buffalo by only 28
Must play the sandwich spot here despite a Buffalo defense that allows 36 PPG and 5.6 YPR. Though FSU is down this year, that upset is huge for Boston College. With the rest of the ACC schedule looming ahead and many regulars battered and bruised (including QB Ryan), will bank that the reserves don't extend the margin.
MARYLAND (+4.5) over Florida St by 3
Running the football well and playing great defense are 2 key elements in succeeding in college football. Right now Florida St is doing neither of those as they are averaging just 102 RYPG and have a battered and bruised defense allowing 19 PPG. Thus, they are favored on reputation alone and are ill equipped to exploit the Terps weak link, a rush defense that allows 183 RYPG on 5.2 YPR. Not really an upset.
CINCINATTI (-6) over Syracuse by 13
LY's 1-10 SU record has resulted in a 7-1 ATS mark for the Orange TY. Now the line has caught up to a team who's averaging 276 YPG and allowing 200 YPG both running and passing. Hardened by an early season schedule that included Pitt, Ohio St., VA Tech and Louisville, the Bear Cats improvement was evident in their 23-6 Sunday Night ESPN victory vs. a good USF team. Take the better team at a value price at home with momentum.
WISCONSIN (-22) over Illinois by 29
Not about to get off Bucky Badger now after we bet on all of their 6 ATS wins. Their balanced offense gains at least 198 YPG both running and passing. Their defense allows 126 or less YPG both running and passing. The Illini is a much-improved team but still young and careless. Hopes of a 6 win season quickly evaporate for the Illini and soon after that any visions of ATS success.
Michigan St. (-7) over INDIANA by 14
We lost a top play with Sparty LW, despite the fact they scored the games final 38 points in their 3 point win, no cover, the biggest college football comeback ever. I'm banking that momentum carries over if from nothing more than this fundamental perspective: Despite playing both Michigan and Ohio St., the Spartans are still averaging 4.7 YPR and 224 PYPG against a Hoosier defensive front allowing 4.6 YPR and ranked near the bottom in the Nation in pass defense. I'm expecting an offensive explosion, much like their second half LW. Indiana has proven to be crushable. Witness losses of 35 to Wisconsin and 45 to Ohio St.
BYU (-7) over AIR FORCE by 14
When Lavell Edwards coached BYU, I annually circled their match-up with Air Force as a "Big Play". He knew how to shut down the wishbone while his aerial attack passed them silly. Though names have changed, the match-ups remain all wrong here for the Fly Boys. BYU HC Mendenhall is a long time DC in this league. Unlikely that DeBerry will show him anything new. If the Fly Boys have a weak link this year, it's their pass defense ranked in the bottom 10 of the Nation. Quite likely that QB Beck, averaging over 300 PYPG, will have little trouble exploiting that deficiency. Cougars on a roll at 6-1 ATS for season and on a 4 game winning streak by an average of 34 PPG.
Texas (-12) over TEXAS TECH by only 5
The plains of west Texas, with it's cool temperatures and gusty winds, provide the setting for one of the Nations toughest home fields. Texas QB McCoy proved he could conquer those conditions LW in Nebraska. Yet, the Longhorns escaped with only a 2 point victory. TTRR QB Harrell returned to form with 6 TDP LW at Iowa St. keying a 42-26 Private Play winner for the faithful. Will take a dozen in what could well turn out to be an old fashioned Texas Shootout.
SOUTH CAROLINA (+5) over Tennessee by 2
Believe quickly improving South Carolina at 5-2 SU, 5-1 ATS has the requisite tools to win this out right. Their defense allows just 13 PPG including only 161 PYPG (47% C). Vols come off huge, emotionally draining rivalry win at home vs. Alabama. Game Cocks cruised to 4th consecutive cover (coinciding with insertion of QB Newton) in cruising to a 31-13 Penthouse Pick winner at Vandy LW.
USC (-13) over OREGON ST. by only 6
USC still among Nations top teams at 6-0 SU. But failure to cover L4 an indication they are clearly over rated. Main problem is a lack of offensive explosiveness represented by far inferior numbers from those of LY. Oregon St. won for us as our 6% Revenge GOY LW for consecutive victories. Under rated defense allowing just 115 RYPG with a top 10 pass defense extend s Trojan offensive woes and takes this one to the wire.
WASHINGTON (-1) over Arizona St by 8
Arizona St succeeded in their Bully role LW profiting from a (+3) in the TO column and a pitiful Stanford offense that could gain only 145 yards. They took advantage for38 points but gained less than 400 yards. Today's test is much more challenging for a Sun Devil offense who, behind QB Carpenter, has under achieved expectations with only 184 PYPG. Though Huskies dropped 3rd straight, falling to 4-4 SU, they had to be encouraged by taking Cal. to OT as 24 point dog. Back up QB Bonnell led them to 446 yards and 24 points. Today, with a significant home field advantage, look for the Huskies to get back on track in their quest for a winning season.
KENT ST (-7) over Ohio U by 14
I've been remiss in not jumping on Kent St. when they first "flashed" the buy sign. At 4*0 SU ATS vs. MAC, they are clearly the most improved team in the league. Today they fight the Bob Cat for the MAC East lead. 2 weeks to prepare is an advantage. So is their profile. They are running 69% of the time for 189 RYPG at 4.4 YPR. Greatest improvement has come with a defense which features a strong pass rush, allows just 3.7 YPR and is among the top in the Nation in pass defense. Those numbers are far superior to their opponent today.
NEVADA (-17) over New Mexico St. by 24
Who knew Nevada QB Moore would have a brilliant game in replacing starting QB Rowe in leading the Wolf Pack to a 23-7 home cover vs. over rated San Jose LW. Certainly, not any sports service who released them as a strong play. Regardless of who this weeks signal caller may be, HC Ault is experienced enough to realize he must keep the ball away from QB Holbrook and the Air Raid offense of New Mexico St which is averaging 435 PYPG. Consider it done by a Pistol attack which conjures up notions of passing but actually runs the ball 59% of the time for 4.2 YPR and 164 RYPG. They will easily exploit the Aggie defensive front that allows 4.7 YPR and then attack a passing defense that is among the worst in college football. Reno backers not used to losing when the Wolf Pack is at home as they have covered 9 straight times in role of HF.
MARSHALL (-7) over Memphis by 14
Memphis is a strictly play against team. LW we capitalized by "Steamrolling" them with Tulsa, 35-14. They are 1-6 SU, 1-4 ATS with a defense which allows at least 209 YPG both running and passing. Marshall got off the ATS slide LW when they out rushed UAB 317-137. Could well parlay that momentum and the strong home field for Home Coming victory.
SAN JOSE ST (-9) over LA Tech by only 2
San Jose's easy early schedule was exposed LW when they gained just 239 yards at Nevada to fall to 4-2 SU, 3-2 ATS. LA Tech's challenging early season slate paid conference dividends when they recorded their first victory of the year ringing up 570 yards in a 48-35 victory vs. Utah St. Plenty of under dog value with this early season strength of schedule play.
MISSISSIPPI ST (+2) over Kentucky by 5
At 3-8 SU LY and just 2-6 SU TY, the progress under HC Croom is not readily apparent. Yet, the difference at the defensive point of attack between the home standing Bulldogs and the visiting Wild Cats is readily apparent. State allows just 3.9 YPR and 134 RYPG while Kentucky allows 5.7 YPR and 235 RYPG. That's part of their 500 YPG allowance and a reason why this program is 1-15 SU on the conference road.
MISSOURI (-1.5) over Oklahoma by 9
Sooners rose up to play one for their fallen leader, RB Peterson. They allowed Colorado just 3 points and 113 yards. But, they could only amass 271 yards themselves. Life gets much tougher today on the road against a vastly improved Missouri defense who virtually matches all of the Sooners staunch defensive numbers. But, the difference will be offense where the Tigers, behind QB Daniel, who are racking up an efficient 31 PPG with 4.0 YPR and 243 PYPG. Tigers eager to prove their improvement is real.
Nebraska (-5) over OKLAHOMA ST by 12
Each of these teams runs the football 60%+ of the time and features balanced, explosive offenses at 32+ PPG. There are 2 major differences between them. First, Nebraska features far better defensive numbers across the board and second, they have amassed these numbers against a far more difficult schedule. We ride improved Huskies to another victory.
Washington St (+1) over UCLA by 6
Cougars remain one of the bigger under rations of this college football season. At a time of the season when it is not unusual for the Cats to go in the tank, they gave the faithful a huge Penthouse Pick winner LW. Their balanced offense purrs at 4.5 YPR and 244 PYPG. Those numbers are each superior to that of the Bruins. QB Brink was 20/23 vs. Oregon LW as the Cougars dominated the Ducks for the first 3 quarters in an eventual 34-23 victory. Public will be all over UCLA off a loss in their fine defensive effort against a high -powered Irish attack. Yet, it's been historically proven that letdown is the more common emotion following a hard fought battle in South Bend.
HAWAII (-25) over Idaho by 32
Improved Vandals left it all on the field in rivalry game vs. top 20 Boise. Now it's time for a vacation on the Big Island. Yet, Rainbow Warriors are seldom a gracious host. Hawaii's top rated passing attack is gaining 392 PYPG while the defense is showing great strides in the second year behind DC Glanville. Hawaii's Red Gun offense, led by QB Brennan, has averaged 51 PPG L4. They enter here on an over all run of 16-6 ATS and have covered 7 of 8 as HF.
Sunday, October 29
RUTGERS (-19) over Connecticut by 26
Huskies Pop Gun attack, averaging 15 PPG and less than 300 YPG is no match for Knight's 9 PPG defense which allows just 233 YPG. Rutgers running game, 5.0 YPR, 203 YPG Steamrolls a Husky defensive front allowing 4.8 YPR.
posted by phantom
Oct. 25 2006 4:23pm -
0 likes
Nsa Wins
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NSA 20 V Tech
10 VT Under
Dr. Bob:
..... 3STAR-
Marshall-7
{PRO} Den-3
Minn+2
2STAR
Miami Ohio-4
South Carolina+4.5
Strong Opinions-
Northwestern+32
Virginia PK
__________________
Mike Rose
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Clemson / Virginia Tech UNDER 43 (CFB: 7:30 ET)
__________________
ALLEY SPORTS NCAA FOOTBALL PICKS
Thursday 10-26-2006
Clemson(-4.5 Or Less)Over VA Tech --3 Stars
Clemson/VA Tech(Under 42 Or More)Over --3 Stars
bob balfe
clemson -4.5
cards -105
big al
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Virginia Tech Hokies
Vegas Sports Informer's free play
Free Thursday Trend Play ***
#302 Take Virginia Tech +4 1/2 over Clemson.
Virginia Tech is 8-2 ATS playing on Thursday night and is 13-4 ATS playing a team with a winning record. Good Luck to all tonight
Dr. Bob
Thursday Night Analysis
VIRGINIA TECH 21 Clemson (-4.5) 20
04:30 PM Pacific, 26-Oct-06
I was expecting that math to favor Clemson to cover in this game, but I was surprised to find that Virginia Tech actually has that advantage. Clemson is clearly a better team from the line of scrimmage, but special teams are a HUGE advantage for Virginia Tech in this game. The Tiers have been 1.5 yards per play better than average on offense with quarterback Will Proctor in the game (7.1 yppl against teams that would allow 5.6 yppl to an average team) and they’ve been 1.2 yppl better than average on defense (3.8 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.0 yppl on offense against an average team). Virginia Tech, meanwhile, is just a bit better than average offensively (5.7 yppl against teams that would allow 5.6 yppl), but they are 1.0 yppl better than average on defense (4.0 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.0 yppl). While Clemson will be able to move the ball at a considerably better rate (my math model predicts 5.7 yppl to 4.4 yppl) the Hokies will have a major advantage in field position. The math also predicts Virginia Tech to start at the 35 yard line, on average, on kickoffs while the Tigers start on the 22 yard line. Punting is also an advantage for Virginia Tech given their ability to block punts and the Hokies’ kicker rating (+0.8 points) is much better than Clemson’s kicker rating of -0.5 points. Overall, my math model actually favors Virginia Tech by 2 ½ points, but I actually think the special teams advantage is unrealistically high in this game and a more realistic fair line is Clemson by 2 ½ points. There are situations favoring both teams, a 91-28-1 ATS statistical match-up indicator that favors Clemson and a 77-23-4 ATS home momentum situation that favors Virginia Tech, and the angle favoring the Tigers is a bit stronger. However, Virginia Tech is 36-13-1 ATS in home games when they are not favored by 14 points or more and the Hokies are 9-0 ATS in their last 9 as a home dog of 2 points or more. I’ll favor Virginia Tech to at least keep this close despite being out played from the line of scrimmage.
posted by phantom
Oct. 26 2006 7:16pm -
0 likes
Wayne Allen ROOT :
Chairman play = VT
__________________
Steam Sheet
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
the BIG ENGINE
VIRGINIA TECH over Clemson by 6 - THURS
Clemson delivered big time for me last week as the Tigers ran
my Smoker of the Year to 24-6 over the last 30 years. But, in
the euphoria of that huge win, I couldn't help but remember
that it was 10-0 in the third quarter before a pair of 50-yard
touchdowns put the Tigers in control. Virginia Tech is 15-4
ATS in its last 19 home games off a SU and ATS win, including
11-2 to the number if the Hokies covered that SUATS win by
10 or more. The Gobblers have been a home dog just three
times since 1992, all to powerful Miami teams, and they
covered all three. But it's Clemson's troubles on the road
(allowing 23 ppg) that have us interested here. The Tigers lost
in overtime at Boston College, struggled to beat a punchless
Florida State team, and trailed Wake Forest 17-3 before 24
unanswered fourth-quarter points saved the win.
TECH SUPPORT 23-17!
Jimmy the K Sports
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Jimmy the K Sports
(11-3) last week
Virginia Tech +5 1/2
__________________
Brandon Lang
Clemson -5
The Animal-3* Clemson
__________________
Dave Cokin
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Vt
a play
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Virginia Tech/Clemson Under
DR D
Clemson/Vir Tech over
JIM FEIST
5* virginia tech
Kelso,s 50*
Clemson
Marc Lawrence ..Superplay
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Vt
LT'S LOCK
Todays Selection: Va Tech +4'
This year's record: 324-246-10
Current streak: 1 win
__________________
Billy Coleman
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cfb
3*Clemson und 42.5
mlb
4*StLouis suppan
nhl
3*Philly ml -115
3*NYIslanders+160
3*Edmonton ml-135
Ben Burns' ACC GAME OF THE YEAR *25-11 (69%) L36!!
posted by phantom
Oct. 26 2006 7:20pm -
0 likes
Red Sheet
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
WISCONSIN 48 - Illinois 7 - (12:00 EDT) -- Line opened at Wisconsin minus 23, and is now minus 20½. It
all began with last year's January 2nd Capital One Bowl game. The Badgers made it that
far, with their 9-3 record, but that was hardly a vintage Wisconsin squad, with a "D" which
ranked 92nd in the nation. We figured that the Auburn Tigers (-10) would put it to this
squad, with some to spare, and, as advertised, it was no contest. The only trouble was that
it was Wisconsin, which was doing the romping, 24-10. And it was no fluke, as Wisky held
an amazing 548-236 yd edge. Well, the Badgers have simply picked up where they left off
that day. Try a 214-65 pt edge as chalks thus far. The Illini have been decent of late, which
has lowered the spot, but they're also in off 3 killer losses. Badgers!
RATING: WISCONSIN 89
Byu 41 - AIR FORCE 17 - (2:00) -- Line opened at Byu minus 9½, and is now minus 7½. Line movement
toward the Falcons here, as the public is well aware of the fact that service academies are
never down, & just about always field a high quality overland squad, which normally keeps
them very competitive. And altho that is again the case (277 RYpg), the fact is that AirForce
hasn't brought the bacon home since a 3½ pt cover vs NewMexico, back in September.
The Cougars, on the other hand, just continue to pay off with regularity, with a current
spread run of 11-2 and a 41.5 ppg average in 11 of their last 12 games. A year ago, Byu
rolled up 39 FDs & 683 yds in a 62-pt output vs the Flyboys, with QB Beck at 702 PYs & 7
TDs in their last 2 meetings. We've ridden this horse all year, & do it again.
RATING: BYU 89
RUTGERS 34 - Connecticut 7 - (8:00 Sunday - ESPN) -- Line opened at Rutgers minus 16½, and is now
minus 18½. The job that Schiano has done with the Knights is truly impressive. Check it
out: from '95 thru '04: records of 4-7, 2-9, 0-11, 5-6, 1-10, 3-8, 2-9, 1-11, 5-7, & 4-7. That's
right, 10 straight losing seasons. But things have sure changed. A year ago, they finally got
over the hump, with the result a bowl trip, & have just continued improving. They, of course,
are unbeaten, climbing to an unfathomable 16th in the land, behind the 2nd rated "D" the
land, and the blistering runs of Rice (225 RYs vs Pitt a wk ago). For UConn, its fortunes are
just the opposite. Player suspensions, green starters, etc. Romp!
RATING: RUTGERS 88
Tennessee 33 - SOUTH CAROLINA 17 - (7:45) -- Line opened at Tennessee minus 6, and is now minus 5.
We wonder if there can possibly be any Steve Spurrier doubters left. He fell flat on his face
in his move to the NFL, but he's now back in his element, with the result being a Gamecock
squad which finished last year's regular season on a 5-1 run, while pulling the upset in 3 of
its last 4 contests. Thus a mere 5-pt dog vs one of the land's true powers. Carolina has
done it with a smothering "D", which ranks 13th in pts allowed. Offensively, things haven't
risen to that level, with an 8.5 ppg output vs teams on Vols' level. Georgia held 'Cocks
scoreless, but gave up 51 pts to Tennessee. Vols remember '05 heartbreak.
RATING: TENNESSEE 88
SMU 37 - Uab 24 - (7:30 Tuesday - ESPN2) -- No line posted for this game as yet. We originally had this one
circled for Pointwise, but decided to table it, as we've never before shaded a Tuesday
contest. However, there is a first time for everything. The fact is that the Mustangs are one
of the more improved squads in the land. After a horrendous start, in which they lost by a
combined 59-9 in their opening 2 games, they've averaged 34 ppg since, with QB Willis
tossing 18 TDs in the last 5 games, while the Smu "D" has held its last 5 foes to just 56
RYpg. Contrast that to the Blazers allowing 317 RYs (6.9 ypr) in LW's upset loss to a
Marshall team which entered with a single win (84th on "O"). Ponies back on track.
RATING: SMU 88
Arizona 26 - GREEN BAY 23 - (1:00) -- Line opened at GreenBay minus 3, and is still minus 3. Quick, which
is the current most futile team in the entire NFL? Right, these Cards, who have dropped six
straight, since sneaking past the lacking Niners, 34-27, on opening day. Thus, it didn't take
long for us to see possibly the last of Warner as a starting QB (barring injury), with Leinart
pushed into duty a bit prematurely. The result being a super showing in that crime Monday
loss to the Bears, but a "down to earth" exhibition in last week's embarrassing loss to the
previously winless Raiders. But a chance to somewhat right their ship here, as they catch
the questionable Packers in their first chalk role in a meaningful game since last Dec 11.
GreenBay is 1-6 ATS with that designation of late. Upset.
RATING: ARIZONA 88
NEAR CHOICES (Rated 87): Iowa, SoMiss, WakeForest, Hawaii -- NFL: Chicago, Philadelphia, Minny
LINE MOVES (from largest to smallest move): NewMexico (+9½ to +6); Idaho (+27 to +24); Arkansas (-
34 to -37); Iowa (-14½ to -17); Illinois (+23 to +20½); Texas (-10 to -12½); Tulsa (-13 to -15); AirForce (+9½
to +7½); ArkansasSt (-6 to -8); Rutgers (-16½ to -18½); OregonSt (+14½ to +13); Akron (-3½ to -5); NoTexas
(+10½ to +9) - NFL: KansasCity (-3 to -5); Cleveland (-1½ to -2½) - TIME CHANGES: KentSt/OhioU: from
4:00 to 2:00; SanJoseSt/LouisianaTech: from 8:00 to 6:00; Marshall/Memphis: now 4:30....
posted by phantom
Oct. 27 2006 1:30am -
0 likes
Kevin o.neill & friends (the Max)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
College Football
Saturday, October 28th, 2006
New Captain at the Helm
Navy (+14) over Notre Dame
@Baltimore, MD
This neutral site game is not being played in
Annapolis, rather it takes place at the Ravens home
field in Baltimore. Navy suffered a tough break two
weeks ago in their 34-0 whitewash at the hands of
Navy when starting QB Brian Hampton went down
with three torn knee ligaments. Backups Kaipo-Noe
Kaheaku-Enhada and Jarod Bryant both failed
miserably, combining to go 4 for 16 for 48 yards and
getting little accomplished on the ground as well.
But we’re willing to forgive the poor performance.
First of all, there was a lot of emotion involved at
the time, as Hampton had a dislocated knee and felt
numbness, which has been cause for amputation in
the past (remember the San Jose State kid?).
Additionally, both had limited practice time. They
were facing the #1 defense statistically in the
country in Rutgers, who have played an easy
schedule but whose lofty defensive stats were
justified by shutting down a lively Pitt offense on
Saturday night. With a week off to work the QB’s
with the first team (with the Hawaiian QB likely to
start) thing should pick up just a bit.
Notre Dame’s big win over Penn State is the only
cover by the Irish this season. The fact that the
Irish are allowing more yards per play than they
gain factors into that lack of pointspread success.
Navy has covered 4 of the last 5 vs. Notre Dame
and despite their unsettled quarterback position the
Midshipmen are better at every position than they
were at the start of that streak. Navy is much more
athletic and clever coach Paul Johnson is certainly
aware that using his week of rest well and being
competitive here would help to attract a continually
better brand of athlete to Annapolis. And with Notre
Dame thrilled by their dramatic late win over UCLA
(41 rushing yards for ND), there could be a letdown
here by the South Benders. Irish by only 7.
Untrustworthy Favorite
@Indiana (+7) over Michigan State
You know all about Michigan State’s recordshattering
comeback from a 38-3 deficit to beat
Northwestern in regulation. But when you realize
how young and relatively unprepared the
Northwestern coaching staff is, it really isn’t that
enormous of a surprise. One thing that is being
overlooked here is how flat Michigan State was to be
down 38-3 to an outmanned opponent. MSU was
playing with revenge from a 49-14 homecoming loss
last season to the Wildcats. How do you come out
that flat in that kind of situation? And if there’s a
team less equipped to handle prosperity we’d like to
be introduced to them. When the going get tough
on the road for MSU, they often get going. When
taking to the road in game 8 or later the Spartans
are 0-7 straight up and 1-6 against the spread
Sharp coach Terry Hoeppner has already increased
the talent level at Indiana. The Hoosiers are proving
to be much more competitive than they’ve been in
recent years. For example the QB/WR combo of
Kellen Lewis to James Hardy combined for 3 TD’s in
the upset win against Iowa. Taking the points with
a team on the upswing against a completely
untrustworthy road favorite that may not be able to
handle prosperity isn’t the worst thing in the world
to do in this contest. Indiana by 1.
Class Differential
Vanderbilt (-10) @Duke
Incredibly, Duke was throwing in the end zone to
beat Miami in the closing seconds. But Duke
capitalized on mistakes by the undermanned
Hurricanes and had only 29 yards rushing in that
game. Duke allows nearly 2 yards per play more
than their opponents while Vanderbilt is just about a
breakeven team. Vandy has impressive wouldacoulda-
shoulda losses to Alabama (by 3) and
Arkansas (by 2). In their loss at Mississippi they
outgained the Rebels 400-179. They won at
Georgia. Obviously they never should have lost to
Ole’ Miss and had they pulled off the upset against
Arkansas or Alabama this is a club that could be on
the precipice of bowl eligibility.
These two teams have perennially been the dregs of
their respective conferences. But from 1999-2001
Vandy beat Duke by 17, 19, and 14 when the
difference between these programs wasn’t as
pronounced. Now the Commodores have improved
their program quite a bit in recent years (Bobby
Johnson deserves more credit than he gets) and are
competitive in the SEC on a weekly basis. Duke gets
blown out on a weekly basis and it was odd
circumstances that allowed them to come back
against discombobulated Miami during “U
suspension weekâ€
posted by phantom
Oct. 27 2006 1:31am -
0 likes
Kevin o.neill & friends (the Max)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
3
Bearing Down
@Baylor (+5) @Texas A&M
Guy Morriss is doing a nice job at Baylor. The Bears
were frequently non-competitive before his arrival
but now have legitimate bowl aspirations (3-1 in the
Big 12 though only 4-4 overall). The Bears struggled
with their new spread offense early in the season
but have now scored over 30 points in three
consecutive conference games for the first time
ever. Their 36-35 win over Kansas was a dramatic
one, as they came back from an 18-point deficit for
the win. Morriss spoke freely of how flat his team
was heading in against Kansas. Looking toward this
one, perhaps?
Texas A&M has recovered from their gutbusting loss
against Texas Tech to come back and win three
consecutive conference games, all highly
competitive affairs, such as their OT win on a
blocked extra point at Oklahoma State on Saturday
night. The Aggies had forced overtime by scoring a
TD with 3 seconds left. But off of those three
emotional wins how focused can they be on Baylor
when the rest of their schedule reads Oklahoma,
Nebraska, at Texas? You can’t bring the A game
every week and A&M is playing emotionally draining
game after emotionally draining game. While Baylor
is off a draining win as well, they have more reason
to be up for this game.
Baylor has proven that they can hang right in there
with the Aggies. The past two years have both seen
overtime games, with a 35-34 home win for BU in
2004 and a 16-13 loss at College Station last year.
Nice little special teams edge for Baylor: Daniel
Sepulveda is the nation’s leading punter at better
than 46 yards per game. Lot of things come
together to suggest a look toward the Bears here.
Baylor by 3.
Too Cocky?
@South Carolina (+4½) over Tennessee
The new and improved Erik Ainge will be tested
here. Ainge’s breakout performances against
Memphis and Georgia were not flattered by the
follow-up performances by the Tigers and Bulldogs,
and Ainge struggled at times last week against
Alabama, though he led them to a comeback win.
Importantly, he made a heroic tackle to prevent an
INT return for a TD in the first half on the 8-yard
line and Bama had to settle for a field goal. The
challenge here is the South Carolina defense, which
is allowing a miniscule 46.5% completions and only
3 TD passes this season. This is an important
strength to have considering that impressive
Tennessee freshman RB LaMarcus Coker (7.1 yards
per rush in 3 starts) is now injured.
Gamecocks had more than their share of
quarterback problems in the early going, but Syvelle
Newton has been returned to quarterback from WR
and now that he’s got a few games under his belt
he’s really getting the hang of it again. “Syvelle is
starting to throw the ball almost exactly where we
want him to now. He is getting better and better,
says Coach Superior.
Spurrier and his staff know how to get their team
cranked up for big games, particularly within the
division. Remember that they were just a field goal
from sweeping Tennessee, Georgia, and Florida last
year. In this year’s 18-0 loss to UGA they had
inferior QB play to what they have now and failed to
score on 2 separate trips inside the 5-yard line.
Tyrone Nix is a sharp young defensive coordinator
for the Gamecocks and USC has a nice pass defense
while UT’s top running back is out with injuries.
Don’t be surprised if this is a game that goes down
to the wire. South Carolina by 1.
Cowboys in Texas
Wyoming (+6½) over @TCU
TCU played quite well at Army on Saturday, leading
31-3 at halftime on yardage of 274-31. This is a
team that has suffered injuries to pedigreed
offensive players but is starting to get healthy again
(thanks in large part to the 16 days they had off
following consecutive convincing losses to BYU and
Utah). But keep in mind that this came against
Army, a team that strangely seems to play better on
the road than they do at home and a team that was
pretty much dominated by a punchless Connecticut
team the previous week.
We had Wyoming as a nice late phone winner in
their dominating 24-0 Bronze Boot win over archrival
Colorado State on Saturday. The Cowboys haven’t
been noticed due to tough losses at Virginia, vs.
Boise State, and at Syracuse in which the Cowpokes
outgained all three opponents but lost all three in
frustrating fashion. But they are starting to play to
their stats by beating Utah and CSU by a combined
54-14. Joe Glenn is doing his usual fine job in
Laramie. Wyoming has tremendous defensive speed
and is holding opponents to a stunning 4.4 yards per
pass attempt. That’ll make the going significantly
tougher here for the Horned Frogs than it was in
West Point. Worth noting that last year TCU was
better and Wyoming worse, but TCU’s 28-14 win
was on yardage of 293-257 in favor of Wyoming. So
that game was closer than it appeared (7 Wyoming
turnovers) and also didn’t feature much offense,
both of which suggests taking the Cowboys here.
Wyoming by 1.
Dave Fobare’s College Tech Play of the Week
KO’s Note: Many readers found Dave Fobare’s
technical work to be intriguing the past two years.
Again this season Dave will be providing Max
readers with a college play of the week and an NFL
play of the week each week in the Max this year.
We’re confident you’ll enjoy Dave’s work and learn
from it as well. Dave’s plays will be clearly labeled.
All other games are written up by Kevin O’Neill.
Kansas State (-5) over Iowa State
Is this the end of the line for Dan McCarney at Iowa
State? The 12th year head coach entered the 2006
season with a 52-77 record, and saved each of the
past two seasons with improbable late season
drives. The Cyclones are 0-4 in the Big 12, and with
just four games to play, the Cyclones face a
crossroad. They can rebound and put together a
miraculous resurrection of the season like they have
the last two seasons, or slip into a disastrous losing
finish, like 2003. In order to get the necessary 6
wins against Div IA opponents, the Cyclones will
have to win out the rest of the way.
The Cyclones are off a sloppy 42-26 Homecoming
loss to Texas Tech. Iowa State's defense has been
hit fairly hard by injuries, and they gave up 475
yards to the Red Raiders. That in itself is not a
terrible performance though, as Texas Tech can put
up some big numbers against a lot of teams. But the
Red Raiders also tried hard to give the game away
too. The committed a total of 14 penalties, including
5 personal foul infractions. Those personal fouls
helped play a part in all of the scores Iowa State put
up. A couple of the penalties set the Cyclones up in
good field position, and two of them extended
scoring drives that should have ended up in punts.
In addition, two of Iowa State's scoring drives were
set up by muffed or fumbled punts. Yet with all of
this good fortune the Cyclones could only score 26
total points. The offense managed just 221 total
yards and suffered through several rounds of boos
from the Homecoming crowd. The announced
attendance was better than 44,000, but it appeared
not even that many showed in the poor weather,
with most beginning their exit with seven minutes
left to play in the game.
The Wildcats recent performances give a different
picture. While Kansas State is certainly not a good
team, they are generally competitive, even if it
doesn't always show up on the scoreboard. Last
week's 41-21 loss at Missouri is a good example.
Twice in the 2nd half the Wildcats fell down by 27
points yet managed to put up impressive drives for
touchdowns against a Missouri defense that was still
manned mostly by their starters. Kansas State
moved the ball quite well on the ground all day,
putting up 262 yards on 47 carries.
The chief technical backing for this selection is an
adaptation of something that has worked in the NFL.
With the longer NFL season, fatigue is a definite
problem for teams to overcome. The same ought to
be true in the college game, but the trick is figuring
out how to recognize a team that is likely to suffer
from it.
Iowa State comes in here off consecutive losing
games against tough opponents in Texas Tech,
Oklahoma, and Nebraska, and was outgained by a
total of 463 yards. That recent schedule does qualify
them in a negative 23-55 ATS "fatigue" system that
is 0-1 so far this season. Additionally, Iowa State
also applies to a 2-21 ATS subsection of the general
angle whose teams have failed to cover the spread
by an average of almost 14 points per game.
The Cyclones look like a tired team that has given
up the ghost. Lay the points with a Kansas State
team working hard to forge a new identity in the
post-Snyder era.
NFL
Sunday, October 29th, 2006
Ram Tough
Rams (+9) over @Chargers
Got to like the Rams. They’re playing hard, playing
tough, and have had a bye week to ease the pain of
their wild last-second loss to the Seahawks. Linehan
is coaching well. Players are playing well. Attitude
is good. Good continuity. Nothing you haven’t read
here a couple of times.
Chargers obviously are extremely talented, but their
linebacking corps and defense is devastated right
now, with Merriman’s situation (playing during
appeal?) and Shaun Phillips’ calf problem being just
the tip of the iceberg. With injuries, suspensions,
and felony charges, the San Diego defense losing a
little bit more week in and week out. As a result
they show more and more vulnerability each week.
Starting with week 1 they have allowed 0, 7, 16, 13,
19, and 27 points. Pretty healthy number of points
to be getting here. Chargers by only 3.
Battle of the Ponies
@Broncos (-2½) over Colts
5-1 Denver is achieving some tremendous things
defensively. The only two TD’s that Denver has
given up this season have been when they’ve been
up 17-0 (in both instances). The speed on their
defense is tremendous. 4.4 yards per play, 27%
third down conversions, 5.3 yards per pass attempt
(even with opponents playing from behind), are
some of the stats that jump out.
Offensively they haven’t done much, but they can
always run the ball a little bit and the Colts are built
to be run against right now. Even though they beat
up the Redskins on Sunday, the Colts allowed 5.7
yards per rush. Denver’s 143-yard rushing attack
will get some production into the Colts 158 yards per
game rushing defense. With that matchup
advantage, if the Broncos defense can hold up here
as we expect we’ll be looking at an impressive and
important Denver home win. Broncos by 10.
Carolina Steaming
@Panthers (-3) over Cowboys
Carolina had a tough loss on Sunday in Cincy, in a
game that they controlled for long stretches but fell
apart late, as the Bengals made one big play each
on offense and defense to get the win. Carolina
tackled poorly at times and failed to convert their
last 7 3rd down plays. The Panthers have got be
steaming after that loss, and at 4-3 they are now in
3rd place in their division. They can’t afford to fall to
4-4 and this game is close to a must win for them.
The Cowboys offensive line isn’t a tremendous
strength for them and the Panthers should be able
to get some pressure on the passer. Bledsoe
doesn’t handle pressure well and Romo is
inexperienced. Despite some injuries, needy
Panthers play their best game. Panthers by 10.
Dave Fobare’s NFL Tech Play of the Week
@Eagles (-6) over Jaguars
Looking at Philly's season stats so far it seems
almost impossible that they could be anything less
than 7-0, let alone 4-3. The Eagles are outrushing
their opponents by 5.2 yards per carry to 3.6 yards
per carry. They are far more productive in the air as
well, garnering 8.3 yards per pass attempt while
giving up just 5.7 yards per attempt. Philly's offense
is averaging over 7 yards per snap on the season.
That production is resulting in just over 28 points
per game, which is a bit low but not an
unreasonable amount for their yardage numbers.
So why is Philly just 4-3? Turnovers were the
problem last weekend. Philly comes in here off a 23-
21 loss at Tampa Bay in which they coughed up the
ball 4 times and could not register a single
takeaway. Two of those turnovers were immediately
cashed for 14 points, both by Ronde Barber. Had it
not been for those TD's and a miracle 62-yard field
goal on the final play, the Eagles should have won
this game in a rout. They outgained the Bucs by
about 8 yards per snap to 3.5, for a yardage total of
506-196. But for the breaks Tampa didn't belong on
the same field. Philly's other two losses came to a
sky high New Orleans team still experiencing a post-
Katrina renaissance, and a pretty good Giants
squad. If Philly can continue their fantastic play, the
breaks should even out and the Eagles will soar.
Let's not forget Jacksonville though. They are a
good team, but they might not be as good a team
as the public has given them credit for so far this
season. Despite appearances, the Jags are actually
giving up more yards per play (5.1) than they are
gaining (4.9). So far this year the Jags have not
performed much better than the average NFL squad.
The pair of tech systems supporting the Eagles in
this matchup are well suited to the game's
circumstances. The first is a 75-37 ATS system that
highlights teams that come off a loss despite
substantially outgaining their last foe on the ground.
Much more than a passing advantage, a rushing
advantage is a pretty good sign that a team won the
battle of the trenches. Philly outrushed Tampa last
week by a 208-111 count, easily qualifying for this
system. The best teams in this system are ones that
do not sport an elite record, and Philly's 4-3 mark
qualifies them under a 29-8 subset worth nearly 8
points per game. The second system is 32-11 ATS,
and is already 2-1 so far this season. It is a
bounceback system that applies to Philly as a
superior opponent that comes into today's game off
consecutive losses. The gem of this system is the
average cover margin; it is over 9 points per game.
The Eagles are simply the much better team in this
game. Philly has simply not received some of the
same breaks as the Jags. That has helped keep the
price down. Lay the wood with Philly as the NFL
Tech Play of the Week.
Monday, October 30, 2006
Kevin’s Monday Night Special
New England (-3) over @Minnesota
Like the direction that the Vikings are heading in,
and we had them on Sunday. The Vikes played well
off their bye but benefited from a number of things.
A 3-0 turnover advantage, the injury to Hasslebeck
forcing Seneca Wallace into the game, a busted
coverage on a 3rd & long play for a 42-yard TD pass,
a bizarre 95-yard TD run by Chester Taylor where
he was stuffed at the line and busted outside, and a
defensive TD to put the game away in the 4th.
While we like the Vikings it will be difficult for them
to get the breaks two weeks ago. Brady is starting
to get in a real groove with his receivers and Corey
Dillon and Laurence Maroney are a formidable duo,
with Maroney now effectively using his
explosiveness on kick returns. Pats are used to
playing in big games and are simply the superior
team here. Patriots by 7.
NFL System from Dave Fobare
Rested Rich Get Richer: Starting in Game 5, play any NFL team with a record greater than .750 coming
off a bye week facing another team off a bye week.
Record since 1990: 10-3 ATS (76.9%)
This week’s application: Chicago Bears
NFL System from Nelly’s Sportsline,
Quality Bounceback: Play on any NFL team favored by 6 or more coming off 2 consecutive straightup
losses facing an opponent of .500 or greater.
Pointspread Record since 1980: 34-19-3 (64.1%)
This week’s applications: Philadelphia Eagles
Double Big Dogs: Play on any greater than .600 college double-digit conference dog off three straight
pointspread losses.
Pointspread record since 1980: 31-16 (65.9%)
This week’s application: Georgia
posted by phantom
Oct. 27 2006 1:31am -
0 likes
Steam Sheet
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Computer whiz, Dan Tesinferno's #1 Play
3* SOUTHERN CAL over Oregon St by 22
During the Trojan pointspread slide this season we were
fortunate to get caught only once in the trap. We'll risk getting
nailed again because it's time for Southern Cal to step up and
earn it's BCS ranking and Pete Carroll knows it. USC has
defeated this team 19 times in the last 20 meetings with 15
covers and one push in the mix. The reason for that dominance
is mostly because of superior players but also, in part, because
Southern Cal hates this team. Why, we don't know but the
Trojan venom flows when the Beavers line up on the other side
of the ball. Don't forget, USC STILL has the best players and
STILL hates Oregon State. The Trojans also have a better
offense and a better defense and, if you look back to the
beginning of the season, two strong wins over Arkansas and
Nebraska, both of which are better than the Beavers.
FOR PETE'S SAKE 36-14!
The injury bug bites and bites hard
Notes: All injuries refer to starting players unless otherwise noted.
NCAA rules don't permit full injury details - this is what we saw
DANNY'S DOG
Danny's Upset Special
3* OKLAHOMA over Missouri by 9
One of my favorite handicapping ploys is the Dominating Dog
with a reason to play. Oklahoma has dominated Missouri,
there's no question about that. The Sooners have won 15 of
the last 16, most of them convincingly. And they have a reason
to play. When Adrian Peterson went down, most people wrote
the Sooners off and the team knows it. Just look at the way
the defense has responded since the injury and look how hard
Alan Patrick is running in Peterson's stead. Mizzou's only
win over a winning team this season came courtesy of three
turnover touchdowns at Texas Tech. Oklahoma has beaten
Oregon (I don't care what the scoreboard said, Oklahoma won)
on the road and can handle the Tigers.
BOOMER 23-14!
STAT SYSTEM
A money making angle from Danny T.
I noticed that although there have been more than 17,500
college football games played since 1980, only 280 of them
involved a home underdog who won and covered as road chalk
the week before. I thought it would be fun to see how these
teams did in that home dog role. It was. Of those 280 teams
in the role specified above, 163 of them covered the spread,
about 58%. If the opponent came in off back-to-back SU wins,
the angle improved to 94-66. Here's where it got good. We
eliminated all teams who were not able to win at least 14 of
their last 22 games and came up with this 42-19 system:
PLAY ON any home dog who won and covered as a road
favorite last week if his opponent is off BB SU wins.
26 year ATS = 42-19 for 68.8%
Of course, there's a play this week. That play is
TEXAS TECH over Texas
Note: Of those 61 teams, the ones that scored 42 or
more in their last game were 15-2 in this angle.
Nevada - QB Jeff Rowe did not play in the San Jose State
game. He injured a hamstring in the Hawaii game. Rowe is
expected to be back in the lineup this week.
Washington St - DT's Aaron Johnson (elbow) and Ropati
Pitoitua (knee) left the Oregon game early and did not return.
Oklahoma St - QB Bobby Reid was removed to the hospital
after suffering a concussion in the Texas A&M game. Reid's
replacement, redshirt freshman Zac Robinson, threw two
third-quarter TD passes and another in overtime.
Kansas - QB Kerry Meier, in his second game back from a
shoulder injury, blew the shoulder out again in the Baylor
game and may now be lost for the season.
Clemson lost OL Roman Fry (knee) and TE Thomas Hunter
(shoulder) early in the Georgia Tech game. Neither returned.
Iowa St - The Cyclones, who lost all-conference CB DeAndre
Jackson for the season with a torn ACL last week, lost star
TB Stevie Hicks and WR Austin Flynn to leg injuries in the
Texas Tech game. Neither returned to their roles.
Maryland - LB Rick Costa injured his shoulder with six minutes
left in the NC State game. Costa did not return.
THEY SAID WHAT??
After his team's unconvincing win against SEC doormat
Mississippi State, Georgia coach Mark Richt apologetically
said. "We're struggling right now. In this league, it's tough
to sustain the excellence." Tom Scott says: "What excellence
were you talking about Mark? The one-point win
over then winless Colorado, the five-point win over
punchless Mississippi, the 18-point home loss to Tennessee
or the home loss, as a 14-point favorite to Vanderbilt,
a team who had NEVER beaten a Top 25 team on the road."
MATH MAJORS - BACK TO WORK!
This paragraph is taken from the Connecticut-West Virginia
game summary from the Charleston (WV) Gazette - word for
word. "Connecticut ran the ball well early in the game. In fact,
the Huskies ran it better than the nation's leading rushing
team for a short time, getting all of their yardage on the ground
during a 60-play field goal drive that tied the score at 3 early
in the second quarter." What combination of penalties
against UConn and automatic first down penalties against
West Virginia would it take to do a 60-play drive that didn't
even result in a touchdown.
WHAT DO I HAVE TO DO TO GET MY POINT ACROSS
In the Baylor-Kansas game, the Jayhawks had blown a 18-
point fourth quarter lead but were on the move for a gamewinning
field goal try with less than a minute to go. From the
Baylor 48, all Kansas needed was for Adam Barmann to
complete a 15-yard pass to get well within Scott Webb's range.
Instead, Barmann was sacked for a 12-yard loss effectively
ending the game. Why don't these kids understand that THEY
HAVE NO CHANCE if they take a sack. Throw the damn ball
somewhere. Anywhere! Maybe one of your guys will catch it.
BITS AND PIECES
posted by phantom
Oct. 27 2006 1:32am -
0 likes
Steam Sheet
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Tom Scott's Number One Play
4* NEBRASKA over Oklahoma St by 14
Don't worry about a Texas hangover for Nebraska here. They
know that they need to win this game to stay in step with
Missouri for the Big 12 North title. It's not like the Cornpeelers
don't know how to beat the Cowboys. They've done it 19 times
in their last 20 tries. With Oklahoma State at 4-17 ATS in its
last 21 SU home losses against foes who are off a loss and
Nebraska at 12-1 ATS in its last 13 SU road wins off a loss, I'd
say we have the numbers in our favor. Here are a couple more.
Nebbish has a better offense and a better defense and in the
games not involving top ten teams this season, has allowed a
meager 12 points per game. In OSU's last 24 conference home
games in which the Cowboys were held to less than 21, there
are no Oklahoma State victories. Nebraska's continuous
offensive pressure is too much for the tired OSU defense.
CALLAHAN CAN 27-13!
3* OHIO ST over Minnesota by 38
We knew that Minny was going to have a tough time here, even
before last week's dismal 10-9 home win over Division-IAA
North Dakota State (Check Minnesota's stats in that game).
We knew of the coming troubles because the Gophers have
allowed 33 points per game in their last 45 conference road
games (six wins) against better than .600 opposition. That 33
point defensive average rang the bells in our office. Ohio State
is an incredible 26-0 ATS in its last 26 conference games in
which the Buckeyes have hit the 28 point mark. I'm aware that
this box isn't performing all that well this season but with a
perfect team trend and a 46-8 angle on my side, I feel good
about the Buckeyes turning the tide. Ohio State wins another
easy one as the Bucks prepare for the real national championship
game on November 18th.
HANG ON SLOOPY 48-10!
the BIG ENGINE
VIRGINIA TECH over Clemson by 6 - THURS
Clemson delivered big time for me last week as the Tigers ran
my Smoker of the Year to 24-6 over the last 30 years. But, in
the euphoria of that huge win, I couldn't help but remember
that it was 10-0 in the third quarter before a pair of 50-yard
touchdowns put the Tigers in control. Virginia Tech is 15-4
ATS in its last 19 home games off a SU and ATS win, including
11-2 to the number if the Hokies covered that SUATS win by
10 or more. The Gobblers have been a home dog just three
times since 1992, all to powerful Miami teams, and they
covered all three. But it's Clemson's troubles on the road
(allowing 23 ppg) that have us interested here. The Tigers lost
in overtime at Boston College, struggled to beat a punchless
Florida State team, and trailed Wake Forest 17-3 before 24
unanswered fourth-quarter points saved the win.
TECH SUPPORT 23-17!
more Phony Phinals
Despite being held to negative six yards rushing in the first
half, Nebraska had Texas beat. The Huskers had a 20-19 lead
and the ball with 2:18 left and faced a third-and-three from
their own 36. Zac Taylor hit Terrance Nunn for a first down but
Aaron Ross hit Nunn harder and Nunn fumbled. Marcus
Griffin recovered and the Cows won the game with Ryan
Bailey's 22-yard field goal with 23 seconds remaining in the
game. Missouri recovered from a 7-0 deficit caused by a
fumble recovery for a touchdown. After a field goal got the
Tigers within four, Kansas State drove to a first-and-goal at
the Missouri four. Mizzou stopped the Wildcats four straight
times then drove 99 yards to take a 10-7 lead. The Tigers went
to the break ahead by ten. In the second half, Missouri Magic
took over. On Kansas State's first four plays of the third
quarter, Mizzou picked off two Josh Freeman passes and ran
in a recovered fumble to take a 34-7 lead to put the game and
the cover in the bank. TCU laid 12 to Army last Saturday and
needed a ton of help from the Cadets to take home the money.
In the second quarter, holding a 7-3 lead, Nick Sanders picked
off an errant pass to give the Frogs possession at the Army 29.
Five plays later, it was 14-3. On Army's next drive, Jason
Phillips recovered a fumble at the Black Knight 24. Two
minutes later, it was 21-3. On the Mules next play from
scrimmage, Sanders struck again with a 28-yard interception
return for a TD. Army fumbled the ensuing kickoff to give the
Frogs three more free points and the money.
posted by phantom
Oct. 27 2006 1:32am -
0 likes
Steam Sheet
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7
MORE C-STATS
MICHIGAN STATE COMEBACK
The Spartan's came back from a 38-3 deficit midway through
the third quarter to set the NCAA record for the biggest
comeback win in Division I. The comeback is detailed in Home
Cookin' but I thought you'd like to remember the only other
three teams to overcome 30-point deficits.
In 1984, Maryland was losing 31-0 at the half in Miami.
Terrapin QB Frank Reich led his team to touchdowns on all six
second-half possessions to beat the Hurricanes 42-40.
In 1989, Ohio State trailed Minnesota 31-0 in the second
quarter before the Buckeye offense ignited. Jeff Graham's lastminute
TD catch cemented a 41-37 win for Ohio State.
In 1993, California was losing to Oregon 30-0 late in the
second quarter. Dave Barr threw three second-half TD passes
and the Bears came back to win it 42-41.
Something above has a familiar ring to it, doesn't it? Remember
that classic Wild Card game in Buffalo on January 3, 1993.
Star QB Jim Kelly and super runner Thurman Thomas were
lost with injuries and, by the third quarter, Buffalo fell behind
35-3. But Buffie's backup QB ran and passed his club to
touchdowns on five straight possessions to give his team a 38-
35 lead and an eventual 41-38 overtime win which still stands
as the NFL record for biggest comeback win. That backup QB?
Maryland's Frank Reich.
BUCKEYE BULL
MICHIGAN ST/NORTHWESTERN: Pat Fitzgerald threw us
a curve ball by announcing early in the week that Andrew
Brewer would be his starting QB against the Spartans then
starting CJ Bacher instead. Bacher passed Michigan State
dizzy while building a 38-3 third-quarter lead. Bacher was
15 of 29 for 245 yards and three touchdowns and ran for a
fourth score. In the fourth quarter Bacher missed on all five
pass attempts and threw the interception that set up MSU's
winning field goal. Northwestern did not get a first down in
the final period. There is more bad news for the Wildcats.
Star LB Nick Roach is out for the season with a broken leg.
Starting C Trevor Rees also left the game with an injury.
AKRON/MIAMI OHIO: Dennis Kennedy is back. Akron's
leading rusher returned to health and posted 129 yards on
31 carries to lead the Zips past Miami. Akron's defense
harassed the league's total offense leader, Mike Kokal, with
six sacks, eight hits and several hurries while holding the
RedHawk star to just 13 points.
E MICHIGAN/TOLEDO: Toledo scored with 3:17 to play to
take a 13-9 lead but, on the two-point conversion try, fumbled
and watched EMU's Darran Matthews take it 87 yards to make
it 13-11. A 45-yard kickoff return set up the Eagles on their
own 46 and, five plays later, the Birds scored the winning
touchdown. UT has lost four straight for first time since 1993.
WISCONSIN/PURDUE: Purdue's streak of scoring at least
ten points in 35 consecutive games came to an end at the
hands of the rugged Wisconsin defense. The Badgers held
the Boilermakers to a season-low 286 yards, 186 yards below
their season average. Purdue was successful on just three of
17 third and fourth-down conversion attempts. John Stocco
and PJ Hill did just enough on offense to insure the UW win.
N ILLINOIS/TEMPLE: For the second straight week, the
nation's leading rusher, Garrett Wolfe, was stymied. After
getting just 25 last week against a tough Western Michigan
defense, Wolfe got just 45 against a terrible Temple stop troop.
Nevertheless, Northern built a 40-0 lead in the first 42 minutes
of the game behind QB Phil Horvath and K Chris Nendick
(five field goals and four PAT's). NIU still hasn't solved its
secondary problems. Adam DeMichele, who wasn't even listed
on the depth chart at the start of the season, completed 20 of
29 passes for 332 yards and three touchdowns against the
Huskies porous defensive backfield.
NOTRE DAME: The Irish escaped the second-tier bowls for
one more week as Jeff Samardzija caught a short Brady Quinn
pass and ran 45 yards through the entire UCLA secondary
with 27 seconds left to nail down a 20-17 win. The Bruins
blew their chance to cement the upset win when they failed
to get a first down on the possession before Samardzija's run
to glory. Here's the breadth of the Irish luck. With a fourthand-
nine from their own 39, the Bruins took an intentional
delay of game penalty to use up as much clock as possible.
When they did punt, Notre Dame was called for holding, a
ten yard penalty, that would have given the Uclans a first
down had they not taken the intentional penalty. Since ND
was out of time outs, victory would have been assured. Instead,
UCLA punted again and, three plays later, lost the game.
HOME COOKIN'
posted by phantom
Oct. 27 2006 1:32am -
0 likes
Steam Sheet Opinions
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
8
Other thoughts on the college card. Unless I say otherwise, I have no recommendation on these games.
Tulsa over UTEP by 19 FRI
Hurricanes have been waiting all year for this
one and Kragthorpe knows how to cover the
spread. (15-3 ATS last 18 games)
Iowa over N Illinois by 17
A possible flat spot for the Hawkeyes who
really can't afford any more. NIU defense
could get steamrolled here if Iowa is focused.
Boston College over Buffalo by 36
Wake Forest over N Carolina by 8
The Deacs have covered twice as a favorite in
their last 14 tries but UNC hasn't covered
since November of last year (0-9 ATS).
Notre Dame over Navy by 15
Middies needed Brian Hampton to pull the
upset here. Without him, they don't have
much of a chance. Irish need big win.
Virginia over NC State by 1
Cavs are improving and NC State is a horrible
road favorite (1-6 SU; 0-7 ATS last seven), but
Virginia still hasn't beaten anybody good.
Florida St over Maryland by 6
In the last 14 meetings between these two, the
average line was Florida State -26. Have
things changed that much? FSU 13-1 SU
against the Turtles. Would only lay this.
Cincinnati over Syracuse by 6
Despite playing at Ohio State, at Virginia
Tech and at Louisville, Cincy averages more
yards gained than allowed on the season. The
Cuse is minus-132 yards in that category.
Michigan over Northwestern by 33
Wisconsin over Illinois by 21
Wisconsin simply not giving up any points.
Although they've had their moments, Illini
are overmatched here. They left a lot on the
field in Happy Valley last week.
Michigan St over Indiana by 6
Are the Spartans back? The Linemaker thinks
so. MSU laying the same to IU as it did to
Northwestern. That ain't right.
Bowling Green over Temple by 19
BG averaging less than 14 ppg over last five
games and laying 20. Remember Kent here?
Vanderbilt over Duke by 10
Vandy has one cover as a road favorite in the
last five years - on this field.
BYU over Air Force by 8
Only a fool would step in front of the Stormin'
Mormons right now off 4 straight DD wins.
Miami OH over Ball St by 4
Miami's gettin' better. Ball State isn't.
Kansas St over Iowa St by 6
ISU giving up 35 ppg on the road this year and
K-State is 24-0 SU; 18-6$ vs .500 or worse
conference opponents on this field.
Texas over Texas Tech by 7
See Stat System of the Week on page three.
Tulane over Army by 5
Army hasn't covered since beating my September
Five Star but Knights have the best
defense by far and three strong angles to
support them in this game.
Texas A&M over Baylor by 4
Aggies dodged another road bullet last week.
Sooner or later they're gonna get hit. This is
best Baylor team in a long while.
Penn St over Purdue by 3
Boilers have a chance here. Penn State offense
overmatched by Painter and company
and Purdue is in a real bad mood. Boilers still
a profitable 7-3 ATS last ten as home dogs.
W Michigan over E Michigan by 15
Emus are more competitive with Jones back
at QB but Bronco defense is on fire as is WMU
QB Cubit. Tough to win in the Zoo these days.
Auburn over Mississippi by 18
Even Tuberville can figure out a way to stop
the pathetic Ole Miss offense and respectable
Rebel "D" is wearing down.
Tennessee over S Carolina by 5
There will be some home doggers interested in
South Carolina here. I won't be one of them.
Vols 10-3 ATS last 13 as road chalk.
Florida over Georgia by 14
With two weeks to stew about phony loss to
Auburn, Gators will come out smoking here.
UF owns the Dawgs (see History Book-p. 11).
Washington over Arizona St by 1
We remember the last time UW just missed
against a big timer then laid points at home
the next week. It wasn't pretty.
Kent St over Ohio by 7
Golden Flashes on a five-game winning streak
and Ohio is 1-13 ATS in its last 14 SU losses
and 1-31 SU in its last 32 road games against
winning teams. Kent can ice the MAC here.
Utah over UNLV by 20
Impossible to back floundering Rebels who
are 1-15 SU and 4-12 ATS in their last 16
conference games. Utes 35-7 ATS in their last
42 SU wins off a loss.
Nevada over N Mexico St by 17
After Boise State and Hawaii back-to-back,
this will seem like slo-mo to the Aggies. But
Wolfpack has 9X covers as home chalk.
Marshall over Memphis by 7
Since firing DC Dunn, Memphis has given up
137 points and 1770 yards - in FOUR games.
Colorado St over New Mexico by 6
First road start for Lobo freshman QB Porterie
but Rams banged up defensively - Big time.
San Jose St over LA Tech by 10
Jose a stunning 15-6 ATS in its last 21 as
chalk. There are only three defenses in the
country worse that Tech's. Spartans 31-2
ATS in their last 33 SU wins.
Kentucky over Mississippi St by 2
Not sure why the second-worst defense in the
country is favored on the road. Maybe because
the eighth-worst offense is the foe.
Houston over C Florida by 18
Akron over Toledo by 5
This should've been the game of the year in
the MAC. It's not. Rockets allowing nearly 40
ppg in lined play this season. Zips 13-2 ATS
on road when scoring 28 or more.
Georgia Tech over Miami FL by 4
The Canes will need some emotion to beat
embarrassed Tech squad off that ass-whipping
at Clemson. We keep waiting for Hurricanes
to shine. Maybe the light went out.
Kansas over Colorado by 1
KU keeps losing one heartbreaker after another.
Key word = losing. Colorado 20-4 SU vs
Jayhawks and good enough to win this.
UCLA over Washington St by 1
Three weeks ago, the following statement
would have been considered ludicrous: Washington
State is better than Ucla. Now, it's not.
TCU over Wyoming by 6
It's not often that you see the nation's thirdbest
defense and best pass defense taking a
touchdown. Could be because Wyo is 1-9 SU
in its last 10 road games vs winning teams.
S Mississippi over E Carolina by 6
Huge QB advantage for Pirates. They'll need it
vs USM team that is 50-13 SU at home in
league play since 1980.
Hawaii over Idaho by 24
Vandal secondary is back-pedaling as we
speak as Hawaii offense continues to light up
every defense on the planet.
Alabama over Florida Int'l by 31
Just one note on the added games. After
dismal efforts at home against Duke and
Mississippi, the 114th and 111th ranked
offenses in the country, Bama went on the
road and held the 17th ranked offense to 16
points. There oughta be an investigation.
posted by phantom
Oct. 27 2006 1:32am -
0 likes
Power Plays Forecast
Ohio St. 34 Minnesota 4
PP says OSU continues to steamroll opponents working their way towards Nov 18th, showing the Bucks with a 30 pt win and a ridiculous 512-228 yd edge. With numbers like that who am I to disagree?
Michigan 37 Northwestern 1
You would expect a dominate performance and you get just that. The Wolves out gain NW 449-163 and get a 36 point win. Both Michigan and OSU have to be peeking ahead to Nov. 18th.
USC 25 Oregon St. 16
It won’t quite be the walkover most people think. Check out the yards. The Trojans are forecasted to outgain OSU by just 5 yards but use a TO edge for a 9 point win.
Texas 36 Texas Tech 24
PP leans with UT showing them with a 12 pt win in Lubbock including a typically massive 184-17 rush yd edge. I like the Horns as well as I feel they have the best OL-DL combo in the NCAA.
Auburn 26 Mississippi 10
Auburn rested banged up RB Irons LW but he’ll be ready here. This yardage forecast is closer then I expected. With that said Auburn still outgains them and continues on with a 16 point road win.
Tennessee 24 South Carolina 20
PP says Fulmer's team wins by just 4 over his rival Spurrier, although it does show the Vols with a 363-267 yd edge. Personally I agree with the yds and like UT as I think Fulmer will twist the knife if he gets the shot.
Florida 30 Georgia 11
PP obviously likes the Gatos as it shows them with a 19 pt win and a substantial 393-247 yd edge. I personally lean with the dog (or Dawgs in this case) in this rivalry so No Play.
Clemson 28 Va Tech 19
VT had won 11 straight on Thursday Nights but lost to BC earlier this year. Clemson manhandled GT last week and PP feels they can give Tech their second straight ESPN primetime loss.
Notre Dame 26 Navy 21
Brady Quinn led the Irish back vs UCLA and now travel to Baltimore to face the Midshipman. Navy did lose QB Hampton and this is there first game since. The Irish gain 310 through the air and Navy gains 265 on the ground.
Arkansas 43 ULM 3
While you would expect Ark to have a huge edge in this game it still has to be noted that PP is forecasting them to outgain ULM by a 499-216 yd edge. The Hogs are in a SEC sandwiched but handled the first part 38-3 LW.
Rutgers 32 UConn 4
Rutgers impressed me with their win over Pittsburgh. They impressed PP as well as they will dominate UConn with a 146 rushing edge and a 80 yard passing edge. They are 16th in the polls this week and heading higher.
Wisconsin 36 Illinois 6
The surprising thing about this forecast is that PP says UW will only have a 179-157 yd rush edge. Other than that the Badgers dominate with a 30 pt win and a 387-255 yd edge.
BC 45 Buffalo 0
PP had Buf with -3 pts so I added that to BC's total. PP obviously sides with the Eagles but personally I would sit banged up QB Ryan and empty the bench to keep the starters healthy for the ACC so no play.
Oklahoma 25 Missouri 21
No tam has been hit with injuries harder then this Sooners squad but their defense keeps them in games. Mizzou has a slight edge in yards but Oklahoma has been more productive and gets the win.
Nebraska 32 Ok St. 23
Nebraska is off a disappointing loss but now will rebound against OK St. The Huskers have already won and covered both Big 12 road games and will do so again with their balanced offensive attack.
Ga Tech 18 Miami FL 14
The Hurricanes survived vs Duke but now return 12 of 13 susp players. We get great value with this Miami squad as they are now under the radar and still one on the most talented squads.
Texas A&M Baylor 23
PP says the Ags win by 8 with a big time 208-58 rush edge. I like A&M as well as I think they can control the line of scrimmage with 274 lb RB Lane vs a Bears D that allows 150 rush ypg (4.0).
Wake Forest 30 NC 15
Lame duck HC Bunning now tries to rally his NC troops to a competitive finish. While the yardage will be close PP has Wake pulling away. NC has struggled scoring and it shows with a 30-15 Deacons win.
posted by phantom
Oct. 27 2006 1:33am -
0 likes
Greg Roberts:
YOUR 5* HI-ROLLER FOOTBALL SELECTION IS:
KENT -6' VS. OHIO U
The Golden Flashes have won and covered every MAC game this year and have decidedly the better defense in this one. Kent has covered 3 straight in this series and plays this with some 35-32 revenge from last year. The Flashes also come the rested side off a bye week that's given them 2 weeks to prepare for Ohio-U. While the Bobcats are playing their 9th straight game. Look for Kent to virtually wrap up the MAC East with a convincing win on Saturday.
YOUR 5* HI-ROLLER FOOTBALL SELECTION IS:
KENT GOLDEN FLASHES -6'
posted by phantom
Oct. 27 2006 1:34am -
0 likes
Greg Roberts:
YOUR 5* MVP SELECTION IS:
OHIO ST. -27 VS. MINNESOTA
The Buckeyes continue to get it done vs. the number as they have now covered 14 of their last 15 games. Don't look for the Gophers to offer much resistance as they rushed for only 99 yards last week against No. Dakota St. and were outgained by 132 yards in that contest. This Minnesota team appears to be getting worse instead of better. We also must note that in Jim Tressel's career at Ohio St. when the Buckeyes score more than 28 points at home against a Big 10 opponent he has never failed to cover the spread going 13-0 vs. the number. With the Gophers having allowed 42 to Cal, and 48 to Wisconsin on the road already that's a virtual certainty here.
YOUR 5* MVP SELECTION IS:
OHIO STATE BUCKEYES -27
posted by phantom
Oct. 27 2006 1:34am -
0 likes
Pure Lock 8-0 College
Toledo
posted by phantom
Oct. 27 2006 1:34am -
0 likes
Brian Lewis
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
67=48 58.3%
best bets 16-8 66.7%
his best bets auburn -19..fla -14..Rutg 19
his other plays
clemson
navy
nwest
wisky
pennst
missiouri
aub
minny
fla
orgst
gt
flat
tex
tenny
rutg
posted by phantom
Oct. 27 2006 1:35am -
0 likes
Notre Dame hasn't lost to Navy since Staubach played (1963).
Florida St has beaten Maryland 13 times in its last 14 tries.
Michigan St 11-1 ATS vs Indiana when IU is off a DD loss.
Vanderbilt is 7-2 ATS last nine against the Dukies.
Texas A&M is 18-1 SU in its last 19 games with Baylor.
Ohio St is 15-1 SU and 12-4 to the number vs Minnehaha.
Florida is 14-2 SU and 13-3 ATS in its last 16 vs Gawgia.
Southern Cal has covered 15 of the last 19 vs Oregon State.
Utah has never lost to UNLV and is 6-1 ATS last seven.
Oklahoma is 15-1 SU vs Missouri (Favored all but once).
Colorado is 20-4 SU vs Kansas (Averaged 44 ppg last four).
Nebraska is 19-1 SU in its last 20 battles with Okie State.
Kansas St has beaten Missouri 13 times in a row.
Clemson is 9-3 vs the number in its last dozen with G-Tech.
DON'T FORGET
These are historical facts. They are NOT selections!
posted by phantom
Oct. 27 2006 1:35am -
0 likes
Doc's Sports Free Picks
Free Play. #82 Take Kansas –2 over Colorado (Saturday 2:00 pm) Last time I checked Colorado was having their worst season in decades and is nowhere near the team to be getting only a couple of points @ Memorial Stadium. They got blown out by Oklahoma and had just over 100 yards of total offense. The Hawks can spread the field and thus will create numerous mismatches @ the wide receiver position. KU still have visions of attending a crappy bowl game and need this victory in Lawrence to keep those aspirations alive and well.
posted by phantom
Oct. 27 2006 1:35am -
0 likes
Dave Cokin ( RADIO PLAYS ) :
NCAAFB
VIRGINIA
WESTERN MICHIGAN
HOUSTON
SPYLOCK ( Tulsa Fri Nite ):
1* SAN JOSE STATE
1* TEXAS
__________________
Colin Cowherd 1-4 last week:
Texas
USC
Northwestern
Oklahoma
Keep your eye on these teams this week
Washington
Tulsa
Wisconsin
__________________
posted by phantom
Oct. 27 2006 2:56pm -
0 likes
dr D
Tulsa
Bettersworld
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
3* UTEP +14.5 over Tulsa - Tough to pass up two touchdowns in a game that has all the makings of a classic shoot out with the last team with the ball getting the win. These two teams have a couple of things in common starting with their weak schedules. Both teams play an incredibly soft schedule. I mean, heck, we're talking about Conference USA here. Tulsa's record of 6-1 sure does look good on paper, as does their defense giving up 14, 10 and 6 in their last 3 games. But two of those games were against 1-6 Memphis and 3-4 East Carolina. If you look at their schedule, their most impressive win was the 20-6 win over Southern Miss. When they stepped up in class to play BYU, they were spanked to the tune of 49-24. They played at NAVY and barely escaped with a win, 24-23. So much for stellar defense. For those keeping track at home, Navy lost to Rutgers 34-0. That should give you an idea of just how unimpressive this 7-1 record is.
UTEP no bargain either. Like Tulsa, they can put points on the board. But they can't stop anyone. They have given up some big time points to some bad football teams. But they did hang tough with a decent 5-3 Texas Tech team and they led 5-3 Houston (who almost beat Miami) 17-10 at the half.
What stands out most in this game, is that these two teams are very familiar with each other. BOTH teams returned 7 players on offense, and 9 players on defense this year. So just about all of the guys who were on the field for this game last year, will be on the field this year. Why is that important? Because last years game saw UTEP pull out a 41-38 win in a game that was tied on 5 different occasions! Talk about close. In 2004 it was Tulsa squeaking by 37-35. So this UTEP squad not only knows it can play with Tulsa, it knows it can beat them. Confidence on the UTEP side of the ball shouldn't be a problem Friday Night.
This is a HUGE Conference USA game as Tulsa is 3-0 in the Conference while UTEP is right on their heels at 2-1 and very much in contention. Getting +14.5 points in an important match up that the dog can certainly win straight up is just too much to pass up here. We make Tulsa about a 6 point choice here, but certainly would not be surprised to see UTEP win. If you look at most 14 point college football favorites, it's safe to say that seeing the dog win outright would be a pretty big upset. We just don't think a UTEP win here would classify as a big upset.
Both teams can score. Both teams can be vulnerable defensively. The last two have been close as can be and this one has big Conference implications.
3* UTEP +14.5 OVER TULSA
__________________
MARK LAWERENCE PLAYBOOK
TULSA over Texas El Paso by 17
It's no secret that Tulsa has had this game circled on its calendar
since last November. A 41-38 loss to the Miners was the only blip
in a 7-1 fi nish last year and the Hurricanes, to a man, felt that
they gave away the game. Now, they want it back. In case you
haven't noticed, Tulsa has covered 15 of its last 19 games and is
12-0-1 ATS in the last 13 games when scoring 28 or more (which
UTEP's defense allows this year). With the Big Wind allowing just
5.3 PPG on their home turf this year, we can only look their way
tonight.
THE GOLD SHEET
*TULSA 43 - Utep 19--Reluctant to pick spot where torrid Tulsa (covered 15 of last 18!) fails to bring home the bacon. Golden Hurricane attack very difficult to contain now that jr. QB P. Smith's deft leadership supported by substantial ground threat of Okla. transfer RB Tennial (3 TDs last week). Speedy UTEP has home-run capability on special teams as well as offense. But underrated vet Tulsa "D" (only 3 TDs last 3 games) much more reliable than vulnerable Miner stop unit. TV--ESPN2
Sports Reporters College
*TULSA over UTEP by 13
If you looked closely enough then you noticed that the Tulsa Golden Hurricane did slip into The BCS Top 25 standings last week (at #25) and that’s just the start of things for this stillunderrated
team. Tulsa has won/covered its last five games in a row and QB Paul Smith – he was 17-of-20 passing for 217 yards and a touchdown against Memphis in last week’s 35-14 triumph – remains a low-risk/high-reward player.
TULSA, 34-21.
__________________
Larry Ness
Legend Play-Tigers
__________________
bryan leanord GOY
Tulsa
posted by phantom
Oct. 27 2006 2:59pm -
0 likes
Scott Spreitzer's College Football Pancake Game of the Week! 6-1, 86% in 2006!
Handicapper: Scott Spreitzer
League: College Football
Event: UNLV vs Utah on 10/28/2006 at 13:00
Condition: Utah
Grade: Ungraded
Promotion: This Mountain West tilt may prove to be one of the ugliest games this weekend. Not only have most of UNLV's players lost faith in their coaching staff, but the very few who still gave it 100 percent are now sidelined with injuries. The biggest injury of them all happened last week in the first half of their 52-7 loss at BYU. Senior QB Shane Steichen was carted off the field with a broken fibula. He's the only QB on the roster that understood HC Mike Sanford's spread offense. USC transfer QB Rocky Hinds looked a million bucks against 1-AA Idaho State in the Rebels' opener, but he's looked in need of a homeless shelter ever since. Toss out the opening win against the ISU Bengals along with the 3-point OT loss at home to New Mexico (with Steichen), and UNLV has scored just 37 points in their other five games, while allowing 169! That's the wrong side of a 33.8 to 7.4 average final! Just to show how bad it's been over the last six games, Rocky Hinds has completed 71 of 146 passes (48.6%) for 760 yards, with just 1 TD and 7 INTs. He's run for minus-96 yards on 18 carries (sacks included). Utah is a strong & proud program who have been smacked in the face with a disappointing 4-4 SU season. Here's just what the doctor ordered to pound someone and take out a season-full of frustrations. UNLV HC Mike Sanford may know this Utah offense, but his players can't carry out a game plan. We expect a huge game on both sides of the ball for the Utes. Utah is my Pancake GOW. Thanks!
Scott Spreitzer's College Football Value Crusher of the Month!
Handicapper: Scott Spreitzer
League: College Football
Event: BYU vs Air Force on 10/28/2006 at 11:00
Condition: BYU
Grade: Ungraded
Promotion: Now exposed as a one-hit wonder with the narrow loss at Tennessee a fleeting memory, the Falcons must take on the legitimate powerhouse of the conference. BYU is clicking on all cylinders. The Cougars (5-2 SU) are just two plays away from being 7-0. And, since their loss in OT at Boston College, they've rattled off four straight wins, outscoring the opposition, 168 to 41! This is not your father's BYU Cougars. HC Bronco Mendenhall has his squad running the football & passing it, and they're playing solid attack-style defense. QB John Beck threw four TD passes in just three quarters of action last week, and RB Curtis Brown became BYU's second all-time rusher (2,717 yards) after gaining 148 yards on 20 carries in the win over UNLV. They'll put up their share of points on an undersized AFA defense. Meanwhile, the flyboy offense is too one-dimensional to hang with the Cougars. Air Force has thrown just 63 passes in six games! Not only does BYU shut down the run, allowing just 3.46 yards per carry, but they don't allow much through the air either. There are 100 division-1A teams playing this weekend. BYU's defense owns the 13th best passing yards per attempt average of 5.97! Some of the teams in front of them are Ohio State, Michigan, Florida, and Arkansas, which shows just how well they're playing in Mendenhall's schemes. Air Force is in a world of hurt this week and BYU rolls again. BYU is 13-6-1 ATS the last 20 meetings with Air Force. Make it 14-6-1 after Saturday. Thanks!
Scott Spreitzer's College Mismatch Game of the Year! (Won GOY by 21 last week!)
Handicapper: Scott Spreitzer
League: College Football
Event: Minnesota vs Ohio State on 10/28/2006 at 12:30
Condition: Ohio State
Grade: Ungraded
Promotion: Hard to believe it, but the Gophers can't run! Minnesota, known for running the football since HC Glen Mason's arrival is stuck in neutral on offense. The team is averaging just over 120 RYPG. It's not likely to get healthy against a Buckeye defense that's getting better by the week. OSU gives up just 3.26 yards per carry, which is the 21st best mark out of the 100 teams playing division-1 football this week, and they're allowing just 75 RYPG at 2.5 yards per carry in Big-10 action. That's even more impressive when you consider they own the nation's 13th best passing yards per attempt average, allowing just 5.69! It's easy to see why they own college football's stingiest scoring defense, allowing just over 8 ppg. Meanwhile, Minnesota can't stop the run, allowing almost 4.4 yards per carry while giving up over 200 passing yards per game. The numbers get even worse, in fact much worse, in their games against BCS conference competition. OSU owns a solid ground game, a strong passing game helped out by outstanding wideouts, and a QB in Troy Smith who has 21 TDs and just 2 picks, to go along with a 68% completion rate! This is an absolute crush job if Ohio State wants it to be. There's no reason to think they won't go for the jugular, especially when you consider Tressel's propensity for covering big numbers. We'll back the red-hot Ohio State Buckeyes, minus points, as our Mismatch Game of the Year! Thanks! Good Luck! Scott.
posted by phantom
Oct. 28 2006 2:20am -
0 likes
Thursday's EASY WINNER on his ACC Game of the Year (Virginia Tech) brought Ben Burns to a remarkable 26-11 his L37 'Game of the Year' releases. That's better than 70%! EARLY this afternoon, this renowned Big Game Expert is stepping out with his BIG 10 GAME OF THE YEAR. You know what to do! purdue
posted by phantom
Oct. 28 2006 2:34am -
0 likes
$50.00 BIG GAME ALERT: Ben Burns' BIG-10 GAME OF THE YEAR
WOW! Thursday's EASY WINNER on his ACC Game of the Year (Virginia Tech) brought Ben Burns to a remarkable 26-11 his L37 'Game of the Year' releases. That's better than 70%! EARLY this afternoon, this renowned Big Game Expert is stepping out with his BIG 10 GAME OF THE YEAR. You know what to do! purdue
posted by phantom
Oct. 28 2006 2:34am -
0 likes
Larry Ness
Las Vegas Insider-Southern Miss
23* UCLA
20* Kent State
posted by phantom
Oct. 28 2006 2:35am -
0 likes
marc lawrence 50-0 ATS CFB
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Play On: Ohio State, Middle Tennessee State and Kent State
100% confirmed
posted by phantom
Oct. 28 2006 2:35am -
0 likes
Mark Lawrence Super Play
N. Ill
Bryan Leonard
Florida
Glen Mcgrew
Under Miami Ohio
Ben Burns
Ok St.
Az. St.
Top Plays
Nelly
4* Kent St
Asa
5* Kent St.
The Insider
Maryland Top Play
Maxwell
Florida
Tulane
Compusport
Big 12 Parlay Of The Year Mizz & Kansas
Kelso
10*new Mexico
Lt Profit
Navy
Marland
Oklahoma
posted by phantom
Oct. 28 2006 2:41am -
0 likes
Larry Ness Premium Subscription
Handicapper League Expire Date
Larry Ness All Sports 2006-10-31
League Selection # Matchup Selection Odds Result
ncaaf 317086 Washington St. vs. UCLA UCLA -1.5 / -110.0 NA
Wash St took care of Oregon last week and snuck in at No.25 in the latest BCS standings. However, I believe the Ducks are vastly overrated and that the Cougars will have their hands full in LA this Saturday with the Bruins. WSU gains yards (401.2 YPG) but has trouble turning that into points (just 24.4 PPG). In comparison, UCLA averages about 80 YPG less, yet is scoring the same 24.4 PPG. The Bruins won 10 games last year with a putrid defense that allowed 34.2 PPG but this year's unit is greatly improved, allowing just 16 PPG, while allowing just over 200 YPG less! The rush D allowed 233 YPG last year (5.4 YPC) and this year has cut that to 78.1 YPG (2.5) and the pass D has cut almost 50 YPG off its average. WSU has a solid running game but getting much at UCLA will be no easy task. While Brink is a good QB, his two best receivers (Bumpus and Hill) average just 9.5 YPC and 13.6 YPC, respectively. Those are hardly explosive numbers. UCLA played a great game in South Bend last week (should have won!) and back home will suffer no letdown in this conference game. UCLA QB Cowan has been just fine filling in for Olson and the Bruins are 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS at home TY (have outscored opponents 115-33) and this line is WAY TOO CHEAP! A win basically ensures a cover and Dorrell is 18-4 SU at home as the Bruins' head coach and in this Homecoming game easily takes care of a team being given WAY TOO much respect by the oddsmakers. 23* UCLA.
ncaaf 317087 Ohio vs. Kent Kent -6.0 / -112.0 NA
Head coach Doug Martin struggled in his 2nd year at Kent (went 1-10) but is making up for it this year, leading the Flashes to the top of the East Division (4-0). Kent opened the year by losing at home to Minnesota (44-0) and then lost at Army in OT (17-14). However, Kent has won its last five, failing to cover just once, when laying 24 points at Temple in a 28-17 win. Meanwhile, Frank Solich is also doing an excellent job in Athens (2nd year), as the Bobcats enter this game 5-3 and 3-1 in MAC play. Neither team has much of a passing game (although Kent throws for about 50 YPG more) but Kent runs for about 70 YPG more than Ohio, averaging 4.4 YPC to Ohio's 3.4 YPC. Red-shirt freshman RB Jarvis (494 YR / 5.1 YPC) and QB Edelman (418 YR / 4.1 YPC) are a deadly combo. Kent also owns the better defense and while Ohio has had a nice year, Kent is really the much better team. Kent has won its two conference home games by scores of 37-15 (over Akron) and 40-14 (over Toledo) and coming off a bye should be poised to take control of the East division with a convincing win here. The Flashes do just that. MAC Game of the Year 20* Kent State.
ncaaf 317088 East Carolina vs. Southern Miss Southern Miss -6.0 / -108.0 NA
Believe it or not, Southern Miss is actually 2-1 and in 1st-place in the C-USA East standings. Meanwhile, Skip Holtz has done a great job at East Carolina (he's in 2nd year), putting up a very impressive 14-4 ATS mark. However, the Pirates have been home for FIVE straight games and will play on the road for the first time since September 9. ECU played well in its first two road games this year but did lose both (28-23 at Navy and 17-12 at UAB). Here they'll play a Southern Miss team that's DOMINATED them this past decade, going 9-1 SU and 8-1-1 ATS (that includes a 33-7 win at ECU last year and a 51-10 win in Hattiesburg in 2004). ECU's QB Pinkney is off a career-best game LW in which he threw for 391 yards but Southern Miss has always played solid defense (especially at home). ECU has a poor running game (108.6 YPG / 3.5 YPC) and that will make Pinkney's job harder, even with star WR Allison back (had 13 catches LW). Southern Miss QB Jeremy Young has been solid at home, completing 67.3% of his passes with three TDPs and no INTs in 52 attempts (also two rush TDs). Making his job easier is the fact that star RB Damion Fletcher (113.5 YPG / 5.2 YPC) is back after missing LW's action and ECU owns one of the nation's worst rush Ds, allowing 178.7 YPG. Southern Miss is a perfect 3-0 at home TY, beating SE La (45-3) in a non-lined game plus owns wins and covers over NC St (37-17 and Houston (31-27). Southern Miss has been to a bowl game in FIVE of six years this decade and a win here gets them to 5-3 with four lightweights to finish the year. Las Vegas Insider on Southern Miss.
posted by phantom
Oct. 28 2006 2:47am -
0 likes
Special K Sports (won 53 of 87)
PICK: BYU -8.5 (CFB Saturday
Ben Burns
CFB
Northwestern vs. Michigan
12:00 EST
I had the good fortune of being able to watch Northwestern's collapse against Michigan State on Saturday. The Wildcats took a 21-3 lead into halftime and got the ball to begin the third quarter. The Spartans' defense forced them to punt but the drive was extended by a very questionable 'roughing the kicker' call. Northwestern capitalized by finding the end zone a couple of plays later. Mere moments had passed when the Wildcats forced an interception and scored another touchdown. That made the score 35-3 and appeared to be the knockout blow. By now the Michigan-based announcers were making comments about how the Spartans had quit on their coach and how the season was a complete write-off. Someone forgot to tell the Spartans' players that though, as they would score 35 unanswered points en route to a 38-35 victory! The same announcer that been suggesting a player mutiny less than an hour before was adamant in stating: "The Spartans have found their soul!" Off that type of devastating loss and playing a road game against one of the best teams in the country, I expect the Wildcats to really struggle this week. They'll likely find themselves trailing early in the game and its going to be tough for them to keep fighting. The Wolverines have faced six straight quality opponents and have gone 6-0 SU and 5-0-1 ATS in those games. This is a significant step down in class and offers them a chance to run up the score to impress the pollsters. Look for them to take advantage by winning in blowout fashion! Take Michigan.
Tony George
CFB
Miami vs. Georgia Tech
3:30 EST
No brainer here folks, as Larry Coker has lost control of his team, needing al ate interception to defeat Duke last week while 13 players were back in Miami on suspension for a bench clearing brawl the week before. Looking at film and listening to reports, the players are giving up on him, and against Georgia Tech that spells trouble. The Yellow Jackets have the best WR in the nation in Johnson, and Reggie Baul at QB is a seasoned veteran guy who makes good decisions and is very mobile. The Hurricanes are 1-7 ATS their last 8 games and have played a patsy schedule including Duke, Florida Int., Houston, and North Carolina, and lost to the only 2 good teams they played. Georgia Tech is off a road loss at Clemson but in the hunt here in the ACC, especially with Clemson losing at Virginia Tech on Thursday, so look for the home team, who beat Miami last year 14-10, to repeat the same feat this year in Atlanta. Georgia Tech 27 Miami 17...lay the wood. Take Georgia Tech.
Carlo Campanella
Game: Arizona St. at Washington Huskies Oct 28 2006 7:00PM
Prediction: Washington Huskies
Reason: Washington, on a three-game losing streak, hosts Arizona State in this Pac 10 Conference battle on Saturday. After opening the season with a promising 4-1 mark, they lost 2 of their last 3 games, both of which came on the road against highly regarded USC and California. They are a much better team when playing in Washington, as their 3-1 Home record this season indicates and this is the perfect spot for them to return to their winning ways, as we find them at 8-2 ATS at Home when playing with revenge against an opponent that won their previous game SU&ATS. Lay the small number with Washington, as they'll get their revenge from last year's 20-44 loss against this Arizona State squad that's only 9-18 ATS when playing on the road.
7* Play On Washington
posted by phantom
Oct. 28 2006 2:53am -
0 likes
Alex Smart
UCLA -1.0
Sat Oct 28 '06 7:00p
The UCLA Bruins come home to the Rose Bowl off a heart breaking loss to Notre Dame last time out, a game they deserved to win. The program under HC Dorrell is showing a great deal of resiliency, despite of playing with out injured starting QB Ben Olson. This young Bruins team continues to impress me with their speedy athletic defense and never say doe attitude, something that has been missing from recent squads. Washington State their opponents here this evening, have played well this season on both sides of the ball, but I expect that they will run into a very confident young bunch at home this week who are ready for what I expect will be their best effort of the year. Final notes & Trends: UCLA is 18-4 SU under head coach Karl Dorrell, including a current streak of 10 straight wins. UCLA is 6-0 ATS in home games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons. UCLA is 6-0 ATS off a road loss over the last 3 seasons. The Bruins are 10-1 ATS after playing their last game on the road . Bruins D is allowing their opposition just 16 PPG on just 265.3 total YPG. UCLA is 35-16-1 SU all time in this series. Play on UCLA/Projected score: UCLA 23 Wash State 17
posted by phantom
Oct. 28 2006 2:53am -
0 likes
FORCE.....Mike Volpe
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FORCE
Tulane -6
Sun Eagles over
MIKE VOLPE
Miami (Fl)-5
posted by phantom
Oct. 28 2006 12:12pm -
0 likes
nsa wins 20* auburn
Blazer:
5* ND, 4*GA, 3-Md, Wash, WA St
Derek Sharp
(96-57-4)
Personal Perception - Bowling Green +17
Secure Spread - BYU -8.5
Home Stand - Purdue +3
Total Cover - Alabama/FIU Under 44
TJ Fillingham *
51-34 (+92*)
10* BYU -9
7* Maryland +4
7* Oklahoma +2
5* Florida -13
5* South Carolina +3.5
5* Ole Miss +19
posted by phantom
Oct. 28 2006 12:14pm -
0 likes
Jimmytheksports
12-3 last week
Michigan St.
Iowa St.
Army
__________________
Cokin
Under the ugly azz hat
Virginia, West Mich, Houston
Jim Hurley's 2006 Hotline Football
Saturday, October 28, 2006
3 units
Oklahoma (+2) over Missouri
12:00pm (ET)
3 units
Miami-Ohio (-5) over Ball State
2:00pm(ET)
3 units
Texas Tech (+10.5) over Texas
7:00pm(ET)
posted by phantom
Oct. 28 2006 12:15pm -
0 likes
Northcoast
4* Nebraska, TN, USC
3* Tulane, BYU, Okies
Kelso Sturgeon
50* Sec Goy - Auburn Tigers
Compusport
Big 12 Parlay Of The Year
Mizz & Kansas
Gator Report:
Tech GOW: Utah
System GOW: Central Florida
ACC GOW: Virginia
Big10: Wisconsin
Big12: Kansas State
posted by phantom
Oct. 28 2006 12:16pm -
0 likes
root
Nl GOY-ok st
mill-navy
chair-ind
mm-mia-fla
source-baylor
insider-af
perfect-tcu
Jim Hurley
3 units each Okla, Mia Oh, Tex Tech
B. Lang
Notre Dame
Purdue
Maryland
Washington St.
UNDERDOG
Purdue
posted by phantom
Oct. 28 2006 12:17pm -
0 likes
Sports Unlmited
5* Top Play
Michigan State
Sport Gambler
FSU (Buy to -3)
Okl +2
Sports Market Dynamics
Illinois +22
Tex Tech +10
posted by phantom
Oct. 28 2006 12:17pm -
0 likes
Info Plays
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
CFB
10* Underdog of the Month on Buffalo +36
7* on Arkansas State -7.5
7* on San Jose State -8
7* on North Carolina +9
7* on Virginia +1
posted by phantom
Oct. 28 2006 12:17pm -
0 likes
Animal
5* Indiana
4*BYU, BYU over, NEbraska over
posted by phantom
Oct. 28 2006 12:18pm -
0 likes
ATS
10* TULANE
8 VIRGINIA
7 illinois, baylor
5 oregon state, cincinnati
Preferred Picks
5* Texas Tech
Nationwide - Gold Sheet
1.5* Top Play
Notre Dame
Magliosa
NCST, Air Force
TOM SCOTT'S SATURDAY NIGHT SUPER SYSTEM SPECIAL!
Florida St at MARYLAND - 7:00 PM EST
Play ON: #315 - FLORIDA ST minus the points
The angle mentioned in the promo is enough to get us to the winner's circle, particularly because Florida State has popped up five times in those 58 games and took home the money each time. The trends are strong too. Florida State is 23-3 SU off a loss in its last 26 tries and 13-1 SU in its last 14 meetings with Maryland. That says that the Seminoles have a good chance to win. Maryland is 9-46 ATS in its last 55 SU home losses, including 1-15 to the money when coming off a conference win. Chief Osceola rides the winning pony here.
PREDICTION: FLORIDA ST 23 - Maryland 9
TOM SCOTT'S FIVE STAR MAC GAME OF THE YEAR!
Ohio at KENT ST - 2:00 PM EST
Play ON: #358 -KENT ST minus the points
When I saw this line I went right to work on a deeper investigation of team trends and angles and came up with a selection worthy of the MAC Game of the Year title. Kent has won the stats on the field in every game since that opening disaster against Minnesota. The Flashes own a better offense and a better defense than Ohio and have a strong 1.5 yards net yards per rush advantage on the Bobcats. Add revenge and a chance to cement the MAC East to the motivational edge along with that 29-1 angle and you don't even need the trends. For those who need more, note that Kent is 19-3 ATS in its last 22 SU wins, including 12-0 ATS with revenge and that Ohio is 1-31 SU in its last 32 road games against winning teams.
PREDICTION: KENT ST 27 - Ohio 10
posted by phantom
Oct. 28 2006 12:19pm