UNC @ UVA - wow was I bored at work
Threw down a bunch of info at work on Monday. I was considering the Over, and am gonna go with 1H Over 21 for two units.
UVA has scored 61.7% of their points in the 1H. Of the total points scored in their games, 56.4% of the points are scored in the 1H.
UVA switched QB’s after Game 3:
First 3: Averaged 9.7 ppg vs teams that give up 16.7 ppg average (TD below avg)
Last 4: Averaged 22.75 ppg vs teams that give up 23.1 ppg average (right about the avg)
UNC gives up 35.7 (32.4 w/o Clemson’s 52). UVA been playing close to what opponents give up.
Totals for UNC 1H’s have equaled 28 ppg, 26 w/o the Furman game (Opp 20 – UNC 6). Clemson was 35-0 at half.
UNC has faced opposing D’s who all give up less than 17 ppg (D-1 opps). S. Florida gives up the most at 16.9ppg which ranks 29th (Others: 8.3, 12.3, 13.3, 13.8). UVA gives up 21.4 ppg (59th). Based on UNC averaging 6 1H ppg vs these D’s, I feel UNC gets at least 10 1H points.
UNC D is ranked 115th and gives up 35.7ppg. In the 1H, they have given up: Rutgers – 14, VT – 14, Furman – 14, Clemson – 35, Miami – 17, S. Florida – 20. The five D-I teams avg 30.9 ppg. Based on this, I feel UVA gets 10 – 14 1H points.
UVA vs teams that give up 20+ ppg:
@ Duke (30.2): 24-0 1H, 37-0 game
@ ECU (24): 7-24 1H, 21-31 game
Maryland (22): 20-0 1H, 26-28 game (MD scored 21 4Q points)
Avg. score: 1H score: 17-8 Game: 28-19.7 Based on this, I think UVA gets 17 1H points.
Red Zone Offense (rank in 12-team ACC)
3. UVA: 16 trips, 14 scores (87.5%); of 14 scores, 8 TD and 6 FG; 50% of trips into red zone result in a TD
6. UNC: 13 trips, 11 scores (84.6%); of 11 scores, 9 TD and 2 FG; 69% of trips into red zone result in a TD
Red Zone Defense (rank in 12-team ACC)
7. UVA: 18 trips, 14 scores (77.7%); of 14 scores, 10 TD and 4 FG; 55.5% of trips into red zone result in a TD
12. UNC: 28 trips, 26 scores (92.9%); of 26 scores, 24 TD and 2 FG; 86% of trips into red zone result in a TD
Misc:
Both teams have a short week to prepare.
UNC LB Larry Edwards broke his collarbone last Saturday. He was their leading tackler with 42.
UNC PK Barth is 5-5 on FG’s this season, connecting from 23, 29, 46, 47, and 52 yards.
UVA PK Gould, 6-10 on FG’s this season, 4-4 for FG’s under 40 yards.
1H Prediction UVA 17-10
Good Luck.
NCAAF:
System: 12-14, -8.1
Other: 4-2, +7.8
posted by teeks75
3 replies
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Talks about the improvement they've made on offense last few games.
U.Va.'s offense low but improving
Though Cavaliers lost to Maryland, Sewell's effort was impressive
BY JEFF WHITETIMES-DISPATCH STAFF WRITER Oct 17, 2006
CHARLOTTESVILLE -- The University of Virginia offense's body of work doesn't impress. Of the 119 football teams in Division I-A, U.Va. ranks 93rd in passing offense, 97th in scoring offense (18.1 ppg), 100th in rushing offense and 109th in total offense.
The low point came Sept. 21 in redshirt freshman Jameel Sewell's first start at quarterback. Virginia totaled only 166 yards -- its lowest output in six seasons under coach Al Groh -- and lost 24-7 at Georgia Tech.
Since that nationally televised debacle, however, the Cavaliers' attack slowly has awakened from its early-season slumber. Virginia gained 253 yards in a 37-0 win over Duke, 298 in a 31-21 setback at East Carolina and a season-high 424 in a 28-26 loss to Maryland on Saturday.
Against the Terrapins, U.Va. posted season highs in rushing (181) and passing (243) yards, and allowed only one sack. Sophomore wide receiver Kevin Ogletree caught three passes for a career-high 133 yards and two touchdowns.
Save one major mistake -- an underthrown pass that Maryland's Erin Henderson intercepted and returned for a TD Sewell dazzled. The Hermitage High graduate, who passed for 243 yards and two touchdowns, ran for 92 yards and another TD.
Sewell's total offense of 335 yards was a record for a U.Va. freshman, as was his passing yardage.
Emotions were mixed among the Virginia players who met with reporters Saturday night at Scott Stadium. None was happy about the game's outcome, not after U.Va. blew a 20-point halftime lead. Yet the offensive players were excited about their unit's potential.
"They saw themselves able to do things that have been done around here before -- running the ball and passing the ball -- but hadn't shown up yet this year," Groh said.
"Obviously, they feel positive about it, but by the same token we had a couple significant scoring opportunities where didn't perform as well as we could."
On the final series of the opening half, U.Va. drove to the Maryland 4 but ended up settling for a field goal. Early in the third quarter, the Cavaliers stalled inside the Terrapins' 35 and came away with no points. In the fourth quarter, trailing 28-20, they drove to the Maryland 21 before turning the ball over on downs.
So work remains for offensive coordinator Mike Groh as U.Va. (1-2, 2-5) heads into its Thursday night game against ACC rival North Carolina (0-3, 1-5) at Scott Stadium. But the Cavaliers, who began the season with senior Christian Olsen at quarterback and then turned to junior Kevin McCabe, seem to be rallying behind Sewell. They're also benefiting from the steady improvement of a line that includes no seniors.
"They're progressing," tailback Jason Snelling, who rushed for 81 yards against Maryland, said of Virginia's linemen. "They struggled a little bit , but they're good players."
Junior guard Ian-Yates Cunningham said: "I think that everybody's starting to get comfortable with one another . . . Unfortunately we didn't get that ultimate satisfaction with the 'W' , but that will come in time."
posted by teeks75
Oct. 17 2006 8:30pm -
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Your not bored Teeks !!
You are DEAD on.
If you want a sure FIYAH WINNAH, Here it is GANG $$$$$$$$$$$$$$
I will respond to your e-mail Teeks, Good stuff guy !!
posted by sundaybreak
Oct. 17 2006 10:31pm -
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i see the same thing...
posted by thenooch
Oct. 19 2006 1:26pm