NFL WEEK 7
October 19-23, 2006
Confidential Kick-Off!! The Gold Sheet!!
11 *SEATTLE over Minnesota
Late Score Forecast:
*SEATTLE 28 - Minnesota 9
(Sunday, October 22)
Have much praise for the job new HC Brad Childress has done so far with
Minnesota, and veteran QB Brad Johnson (now 38!) is a heady leader. But
Viking offense has not reached the 20-point mark on its own TY, and too often
the attack is forced to dink, dink, dink away, with few defense-busting
plays. That's not a good formula in Seattle, where the Seahawks are 10-2
their last 12 when favored and where points often come in bunches. MVP Shaun
Alexander (check foot injury) is expected back for this one, and former
Patriot WR Deion Branch contributed 6 recs. and 2 TDs in last week's win at
St. Louis. Hawks' quick defense collected 6 sacks last in the Rams game, and
that unit feeds off the rabid Seattle crowd, which gets louder with every
positive play.
posted by phantom
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Marc Lawrence
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Playbook (NFL) -
5* BEST BET
Philadelphia over TAMPA BAY by 14
Before playing the Saints last week, the Eagles were 22-10 SU
in their last 32 non-division road games with 21 covers in the
mix, including a sparkling 9-3 ATS log in their last 12. Tampa is
struggling this season, winning on the fi nal play of the game
for the fi rst time last week against the defenseless Bengals.
Do the Eagles remember the home loss to Tampa in the 2002
playoffs and 17-0 home loss to Bucs to open the 2003 season?
Maybe. We do know Philly head coach Andy Reid is 17-6 ATS
away off a loss in his NFL career, including 8-1 ATS off a SU
favorite loss (5-0 ATS when favored). Pay Day in the Bay.
4* BEST BET
KANSAS CITY over San Diego by 6
Despite San Diego's road success over the last few years, the
Chargers have never viewed Kansas City as their favorite road
trip. One SU & ATS win in the last nine visits to the Barbecue
Pit is all San Diego could manage. This trip won't be any
easier. With Trent Green back (check status) and the Chiefs
playing Herm Edwards defense, the Chargers better pack their
lunches. Disparate results from last week lend great value to
the host. KC's 9-1 ATS home dog log against foes off back-toback
SUATS wins doesn't hurt, either. Bolts blow a fuse.
3* BEST BET
INDIANAPOLIS over Washington by 1
Everyone agrees that the Colt rush defense is its Achilles heel
but no one on the Colt staff seems to have the answer. Enter
Washington, a strong running team with a good enough
defense to keep Peyton Manning in check and a home-run
hitting wide receiver to keep the Colts from stacking against
the run. Indy doesn't lose many home games, we know that,
but this number is simply a little too high for our tastes. It's not
often you fi nd a double-digit NFL dog that was a double-digit
favorite the previous week (they are 7-2 ATS since 1980). With
only one of the Colts' fi ve wins by more than seven points this
season, and Washington wounded after last week's shocker
against Tennessee, the points become the play here today.
Jacksonville over HOUSTON by 8
With one win in their last 15 tries (a 21-0 win at Jacksonville in
2004) against winning teams, the Texans won't be at the top of
our list this week. The well-rested Jags have also held four of their
fi ve foes to season low yards this season. But, Jack is a lowly 1-9-1
ATS as road chalk off a non-division home win and 1-6 ATS in its
last seven tries as October favorites into revenge. No thanks.
New England over BUFFALO by 6
New England has pretty much owned the Bills. The Pats are 11-1
SU in the last 12 meetings and a phenomenal 16-3-1 ATS in the
second meeting of the season over the last two decades (beat
Buffi e in season opener this year). Forget revenge. Division home
teams with revenge against the Patriots have covered once in the
last eight opportunities. Still, we think the gap is closing between
these two AFC East rivals and, despite the Pats' 9-0-1 ATS mark in
division games before back-to-back non-division contests, we are
just a bit hesitant to lay points in this situation.
Pittsburgh over ATLANTA by 3
Despite starting this season with losses at Jacksonville and at San
Diego, Pittsburgh remains the premier road team in the NFL.
The Steelers are 16-4 SU in their last 20, including 7-2 ATS as an
underdog (check line). Atlanta is 4-18 at home off a home game,
including 1-12 ATS versus a foe off a win and 1-10 ATS as a dog.
Worse yet, in their NFL history, the Falcons are 1-11-1 SU all-time
against the Black and Gold.
MIAMI over Green Bay by 6
It's sad for us to see Brett Favre struggle like he has but, to his and
his team's credit, the Packers are still playing hard. That could be
enough to get the cover against a Miami team who is a woeful 1-11
ATS in its last dozen tries as home favorites of -3 or more. Miami's
defense, however, is in the top fi ve in the league. Green Bay's
is better than only Houston's. Dolphin receivers dropped seven
crucial passes in last week's loss to the Jets as this team continues
to shoot itself in the foot. Amputation may be in the offi ng.
NY JETS over Detroit by 1
Here we go again with the Lions on the road. Five wins in their
last 43 trips is the what the Lions have managed since the start of
the 2001 season and, with the plethora of injuries at key positions
suffered recently, they don't fi gure to improve that awful road
record. Nevertheless, the Jets don't rebound well after playing
Miami (0-6 ATS last six) and, in their last three tries as a favorite
against NFC teams, they lost all three outright. Surprisingly, the
Lions owns the better rushing stats.
Carolina over CINCINNATI by 3
Going against one of the best dogs in the NFL (Carolina 20-4 ATS
last 24) with a superior defense is not something we're in the habit
of doing and we're not doing it here. Carolina started slowly this
season but has improved every week. They are 4-0 SU with star
WR Steve Smith in the lineup this season. Cincinnati started fast
but is slipping. Take the points.
Denver over CLEVELAND by 6
The Broncos rarely lose to losing teams. With the exception of
season openers where nobody is a winner or a loser, the Broncos
are 21-5 SU in their last 26 against sub .500 clubs. That makes
things tough for the Browns because Denver is 84-9 ATS in its
last 93 SU road wins. Still, Cleveland showed its mettle against a
similar team (Baltimore) on this fi eld earlier and the Browns are 7-2
ATS in their last nine against non-division AFC foes. We think the
Broncos could possibly be more focused on their next two games
(Colts and Steelers) than they might be here today.
SEATTLE over Minnesota by 7
The Vikings had an extra week to prepare for the Seattle offense
but their history against this division is terrible. They are 0-6 SU in
their last six on the road against NFC West and 0-10 ATS in their last
ten. Seattle, though, has just one cover in its last nine tries against
rested teams. One thing's for sure, Minnesota will need more than
one TD, its average production this season, to cover this.
OAKLAND over Arizona by 1
Although Oakland is a perfect 0-9 ATS in its last nine as home dogs
and 3-19-1 ATS in its last 23 games following a division road game,
we're not going to hurry to the Arizona window. The Cardinals
have one cover in their last seven tries as road chalk and just three
wins in their last 31 road games with only eight covers. Sooner or
later, Oakland is going to break through with a win...
Monday, October 23rd
DALLAS over NY Giants by 3
In one of the toughest divisions in the NFL, it is essential that you
protect your home fi eld, particularly in division games, and Dallas
has the numbers to do just that. The Cowboys are 9-2 ATS at home
with revenge in October and 8-2 ATS at home off a non-conference
game. The rejuvenated G-Men are 7-1 ATS on the road in October
off back-to-back wins and covers. But this game is about more
than numbers. Both teams have to win to stay in step within the
division. We're still looking for a solid edge.
OVER / UNDERS
5* Panthers/Bengals OVER
4* Cardinals/Raiders OVER
3* Chargers/Chiefs UNDER
posted by phantom
Oct. 17 2006 7:44pm -
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Sports Reporters Nfl
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SUPER BEST BET
PHILADELPHIA over *TAMPA BAY by 21
Last week Philly succumbed to the two-headed monster that is homefield advantage at
the Louisiana Superdome, while at the same time being off a hard-fought win vs. a division
rival. At this rate, we should be asking if any road team has a chance in Saints territory.
Luckily for Philly, they escape New Orleans and travel to Tampa Bay, who delivered
a huge upset of their own by taking down an unprepared Bengals team. Bruce
Gradkowski seems to have replaced the injured Chris Simms as the QB of the future for
the Bucs and has led spirited efforts in each of the last two contests. The Bucs defense
also played very well against Cincy, holding them to 53 yards rushing after giving up an
average of 179.5 rushing yards per game. Unfortunately for Tampa Bay, Philly throws
way more than they run, with Donovan McNabb throwing an average of 35 times a game
while the team averages 24 rushing attempts. The Eagles will be highly motivated after
suffering the classic letdown game after two “bigâ€
posted by phantom
Oct. 17 2006 7:55pm -
0 likes
Winning Points Nfl
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****BEST BET
Carolina over *Cincinnati by 14
Maybe it has been a little too premature to scoff at Carolina as a serious
Super Bowl contender. Since star wide receiver Steve Smith returned to the
lineup, the Panthers are 4-0. It’s not a coincidence. Smith is the most dangerous
wideout in football. He has been getting healthier and healthier
each week. Likewise, his stats keep growing.The Panthers are a formidable
foe with Smith.Their stature increases. It’s not just Smith.The Panthers also
have the most dominant player on defense, Julius Peppers. He leads the
league in sacks. Peppers can wreak a lot of havoc on Cincinnati with
Carson Palmer having protection problems. Palmer has been sacked 17
times.This is especially alarming because the Bengals try hard to be a balanced
team.Also distressing for the Bengals are their offensive line injuries.
The Panthers’ run defense has come alive holding their last four foes under
100 yards rushing.The Bengals, on the other hand, rank among the bottom
10 teams in rush defense.We’re talking about a run defense that surrendered
a whopping 231 yards on the ground to the Patriots in Cincinnati’s
last home game three weeks ago. Palmer, coming off serious injury concerns,
is not where he was a year ago when he could compensate for any
defensive shortcomings. In addition, Chad Johnson is having an off-season.
He’s averaging just 60 yards receiving per game. He has yet to break 100
yards.Traditionally the Panthers are at their best as underdogs, while the
Bengals are at their worst as home favorites. Carolina has covered a remarkable
18 of 21 (85) percent when taking points.The Bengals are just 3-8 ATS
(27 percent) laying points at home. Until these trends are reversed, the
Panthers are worth riding anytime you can grab points with them, especially
with Smith now 100 percent and the Bengals’ offensive line bangedup.
CAROLINA 28-14.
***BEST BET
*Houston over Jacksonville by 8
Jacksonville has a tendency to play down to its competition’s level.Look no
further than this series for proof.The Texans are one of the worst teams in
the NFL, but they take the Jaguars very serious. It’s become their rivalry
game with many of their players having roots in Florida. Houston is 6-2 ATS
against Jacksonville, 4-4 SU.The Texans have beaten and covered three of
four at home against the Jaguars.Want more evidence of the Jaguars’ vulnerability?
Jacksonville is 1-9-1 ATS as a road favorite following a straight-up
non-division home win.The Jaguars were off last week, but on the previous
Sunday buried the Jets, 41-0, at Alltel Stadium. Jacksonville has been dominant
at home, outscoring their foes, 74-17. On the road, though, the Jaguars
are 0-2 having surrendered a combined 57 points to the Colts and
Redskins. Of course, the Texans are not the Colts. But new coach Gary
Kubiak has installed a respectable offense. It’s respectable enough where
David Carr was leading the NFL in passing through Week 5.Andre Johnson
ranked third in receptions and fourth in receiving yardage heading into
Week 6 and the offensive line was protecting Carr better. Jacksonville’s
stout defense has taken several major injury hits. Out for the season are
middle linebacker and leading tackler Mike Peterson and Reggie Hayward,
who led Jacksonville in sacks last year. In addition, defensive tackle Marcus
Stroud is questionable.The Jaguars’ run defense isn’t so imposing without
Peterson and Stroud, who teams with John Henderson to give Jacksonville
one of the better run stop units. Houston’s weakness is a defense that ranks
near the bottom in nearly all the major statistical categories.The Texans are
surrendering 29.4 points a game. But they have the offense, motivation, history
and catch Jacksonville missing key players to pull the upset. HOUSTON
24-16.
**PREFERRED
*Cleveland over Denver by 3
The Browns have the special teams, coaching, defensive intensity and playmakers,
Braylon Edwards and Kellen Winslow Jr., to spring an upset here.
Most important, they are in a tremendous situational spot. Denver is off a
physical Monday night home win against Baltimore.This was followed by a
Sunday night home game against long-standing division rival Oakland, a
team Broncos coach Mike Shanahan despises. After this matchup, the
Broncos host the Colts in another marquee matchup.This is the only road
game Denver plays in a four-week span. It’s also the only matchup not
nationally televised or drawing heavy media scrutiny. If the Broncos are
going to have a flat spot, this is it. Cleveland has a different focus. The
Browns were idle last week. They will be rested and fired-up. Offensive
coordinator Maurice Carthon and his play-calling have come under fire.
Don’t be surprised if the Browns have some new wrinkles given the extra
preparation time. QB Charlie Frye is athletic and courageous. He has the
support of his teammates. Edwards and Winslow give him two excellent
targets in the passing game. Denver has covered only one of its last six
against AFC North Division squads.The Broncos usually start slow.They’ve
scored just seven points in the first quarter.The Browns can build momentum
early and pull the upset. CLEVELAND 19-16.
**PREFERRED
New England over *Buffalo by 15
Buffalo gave New England all it could handle opening week, leading by 10
in the second half before finally losing, 19-17. Don’t look for the final score
to be so close this time around. Good-looking rookie Lawrence Maroney is
now more involved in the Patriots’ ground attack. He and Corey Dillon can
take advantage of Buffalo’s vulnerable run defense with a strong 1-2 ground
punch. The Bills do have good pass rushers.Tom Brady, though, has been
sacked just five times. He’s had time now to get in sync with his new
receivers.With an effective ground game, Brady should find little trouble
exploiting the Bills’ young defensive backs. Conversely, New England
entered its bye week rated 12th in rush defense.The Patriots will be keying
on Willis McGahee, who they held to 70 yards rushing on 20 carries, a
3.5 average, in the first meeting. So the Bills are going to need J.P. Losman
to step up here.We don’t see that happening. Not with New England’s
defense having better personnel this year compared to last season and Bill
Belichick having two weeks to prepare a strong game plan.The Patriots are
giving up 14.8 points per game. Last year, they surrendered 21.1 points.The
Patriots have covered nine of their past 11 away contests.They also have
defeated the Bills 11 of the last 12 times, covering eight of the 12 (66 percent).
NEW ENGLAND 28-13.
*CLOSE CALLS
San Diego over *Kansas City by 7
Granted Arrowhead Stadium is one of the toughest road venues. But with
Philip Rivers looking better and better, the Chargers have been rolling
along having led for all but one minute this season. San Diego is 14-2-2 (87
percent) ATS on the road.The Chargers also have covered four of their last
five at Arrowhead.The Chiefs’ aged offensive line no longer can open holes
for Larry Johnson against top run defenses like San Diego’s.With journeyman
Damon Huard filling in for injured Trent Green (check status), the
Chiefs don’t have the threat of a passing attack either to keep the Chargers
from bunching up on Johnson.As the Steelers showed last week, the Chiefs
still have a long ways to go on defense, too. SAN DIEGO 26-19.
Pittsburgh over *Atlanta by 3
The Falcons have rushed for more than 200 yards in all but one of their
games. However, it’s hard to envision seeing them do it against Pittsburgh,
which has stout defensive linemen and quick linebackers to keep Michael
Vick in check. After being held without a touchdown pass and throwing
seven interceptions the first five weeks, Ben Roethlisberger broke out in a
big way last Sunday with a near perfect game against Kansas City. Perhaps
the rust is gone. The Falcons have yet to prove they can step up against
superior competition.Atlanta is 1-8 SU, 1-7-1 ATS since last year when facing
playoff teams. PITTSBURGH 15-12.
*Miami over Green Bay by 2
It’s hard to lay points with a Dolphins squad that has yet to score more than
17 points even against a team as young and turnover prone as the Packers.
The Packers do probably catch a break, though, drawing Joey Harrington
rather than recovering Daunte Culpepper. Since 2003, Culpepper had
thrown 14 touchdown passes against the Packers with zero interceptions
when he was at Minnesota, while Green Bay was 5-2 against Detroit when
Harrington started for the Lions. Miami didn’t allow a sack against the Jets
last week, but still has surrendered 22 on the season. It’s Miami’s first home
game in four weeks, but Green Bay’s had an additional week to get ready.
MIAMI 21-19.
Philadelphia over *Tampa Bay by 4
Can the Eagles get upset on the road twice in two weeks by an NFC South
team? Tampa Bay has history going 14-3-1 ATS as a home underdog.There’s
such a big quarterback difference, though. Donovan McNabb is making
MVP noise with a touchdown-to-interception ratio of 13-2. He’s been held
under 288 yards passing just once this season, with the Saints holding him
to 247 last Sunday. Bucs rookie Bruce Gradkowski makes his third start.
He’ll be going against a blitz-happy Eagles defense with an excellent secondary.
Eagles ace defensive coordinator Jim Johnson now has NFL game
film on Gradkowski.Tampa ranked first in defense last year.There has been
slippage this season with sloppy tackling and just five takeaways.
PHILADELPHIA 17-13.
*New York Jets over Detroit by 5
Oh,well, Detroit fans at least the Tigers are good.Kevin Jones could have a
second consecutive 100-yard rushing game here as the Jets are giving up
an average of 157.2 yards on the ground their last five games.The expected
return of hard-hitting strong safety Kenoy Kennedy should aid a porous
Detroit secondary. The Jets also are 1-8 ATS after meeting the Dolphins.
What keeps us off Detroit is its cluster injury problem on the offensive line
where 10 linemen already have been lost. Detroit is down to just two offensive
line starters. It’s also the Lions’ third road game in four weeks.The Jets
aren’t pretty, but somehow rookie coach Eric Mangini has New York at 3-3.
Mangini has the defensive mind to exploit Detroit’s battered offensive line,
especially playing at home. NY JETS 22-17.
*Indianapolis over Washington by 7
Has there ever been a more uninspired 5-0 team than Indianapolis? The
Colts have been on cruise control.They haven’t looked especially good or
inspired with four of their five victories coming by a total of 16 points.
That’s an average victory margin of four points.Washington’s secondary
gets a big boost with the return of cornerback Shawn Springs, who made
his season debut last week after being out since the first preseason game
with groin and abdominal injuries. Being idle last week, though, just could
reinvigorate Indy. The Redskins couldn’t stop the Jaguars, Cowboys and
even Titans, plus the Giants moved the ball at will against them. Peyton
Manning inside a dome could light them up. INDIANAPOLIS 34-27.
*Seattle over Minnesota by 6
It took two defensive TDs at home against the Lions for the Vikings to break
the 20-point barrier.There’s just not a lot of firepower with Minnesota.New
Coach Brad Childress has switched the offense to a power-ground attack
with Chester Taylor running and Brad Johnson throwing dink passes.
Seattle has yet to allow a 100-yard rusher. But before we can lay big points
with Seattle we need to know if Shaun Alexander (check status) is going to
play and if tight end Jerramy Stevens is back from a knee injury. Stevens’
return could open the middle for the Seahawks making wide receivers
Darrell Jackson and Deion Branch even more dangerous. SEATTLE 25-19.
*Oakland over Arizona by 1
We all know how bad the Raiders are.Art Shell does a great impersonation
of a statue, Randy Moss is apathetic and Jerry Porter wasted. The Raiders
have been nothing but a black hole for bettors. However, this is a tough
spot for Arizona. The Cardinals’ strength is passing. The Raiders, however,
actually rated second in pass defense through Week 5.This would be Matt
Leinart first road start – provided he survives the Bears this past Monday
night.Traveling on a short week is bad enough, but it’s made doubly worse
following a game against the physical Bears. Edgerrin James entered
Monday’s game averaging just 3.1 yards per rush with a long run of 14
yards.The Cards may also be without star WR Larry Fitzgerald (check status).
OAKLAND 21-20.
*Dallas over New York Giants by 3 (Monday)
New York’s murderous schedule continues with this Monday night road
game at Dallas. It’s the Giants’ fourth away game in six weeks.The Giants
have met five teams with a combined mark of 18-9 so they certainly are battled-
tested. They also have the pass-rushers to take advantage of Drew
Bledsoe’s lack of mobility.Tiki Barber has yet to score a touchdown this season,
but is one of the top all-purpose backs in the NFL.Terrell Owens is sure
to hijack a lot of the publicity.The key is if the Giants’ vulnerable secondary
can keep him from doing any dances. Note to totals players, five of the
last six in the series have gone under at Dallas. DALLAS 23-20.
OVER/UNDER
**UNDER: Pittsburgh at Atlanta – The Falcons have held three of
their five foes to 10 points or less, but Michael Vick is completing only 50
percent of his throws, averaging less than six yards per attempt.
OVER: Washington at Indianapolis – Peyton Manning should have
lots of time to throw, while the Redskins have skill-position players to take
advantage of a soft defense.
UNDER: Philadelphia at Tampa Bay – Philly’s defense is going to
cause problems for Bruce Gradkowski while the Bucs’ veteran defense can
slow one-dimensional offenses at home.
posted by phantom
Oct. 17 2006 7:57pm -
0 likes
Gator's E-Report NFL 70% Super Situations:
Play Over - Any team where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points in non-conference games, off an extremely close loss by 3 points or less to a division rival. (24-4 over the last 10 seasons.) (85.7%) PLAY: Green Bay /Miami OVER 41
Play Under - Any team where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points off 1 or more straight overs, in a game involving two average offensive teams (18-23 PPG). (42-8 over the last 5 seasons.) (84%) PLAY: Carolina / Cincinnati UNDER 44
posted by phantom
Oct. 20 2006 2:38pm -
0 likes
Jim Rich
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Fade away guys..his total plays sux
..he gives these out on friday..if you used friday lines or his he went 4-9(1-9 on the plays in black ) (3-0 on the plays in green ) which is still terrible
overall he is 32-55 using his lines
this guy suxs fade away
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
his game record is 38-43..his total over /unders record is 32-55
good luck guys fading this clown..heres his total plays for today
these plays went 1-9 last week
giants over 45 1/2
chargers under 40 1/2
jets under 41 1/2
falcons over 37 1/2
miami over 40
denver under 31
philly under 43
wash over 49
panthers under 44 1/2
vikes under 41
his other plays..these plays went 3-0 last week
jags over 40 1/2
pats under 37
raiders under 40 1/2
on the plays i put in black ..those plays went 1-9 last week
on the plays i put in green those plays went 3-0 last week..
He's 4-1-1 on these games..His best bets
Giants +3
posted by phantom
Oct. 20 2006 2:39pm -
0 likes
VALLEY SPORTS NFL FOOTBALL PICKS
Sunday 10-22-2006
Pittsburgh(-2.5 or Less)Over Atlanta --5 Stars
Carolina(+3 or More)Over Cincinnati --4 Stars
New England(-5.5 or Less)Over Buffalo--3 Stars
Arizona(-3 or Less)Over Oakland --2 Stars
Tampa Bay(+5.5 Or More)Over Philadelphia --2 Stars
Jacksonville/Houston(Under 40 Or More) --4 Stars
Detroit/NY Jets(Over 42 Or Less) --3 Stars
posted by phantom
Oct. 20 2006 2:39pm -
0 likes
DOC S FREE PICK
Pick. #112 Take Atlanta +1 ½ over Pittsburgh (Sunday 1:00 pm CBS) The champs recorded a home victory last week against a terrible team and now everyone thinks they are back. Except me, they are not the type of team to be laying wood against a quality team on the road. The Falcons had their hick-up last week and realize how important this game is playing inside the dome. Michael Vick is the best athlete on the field and will beat the Steelers with his legs. Pittsburgh is having trouble throwing the ball downfield for distance and Hines Ward cannot beat Atlanta lone with his possession receptions. ATL 21, Pittsburgh 17
posted by phantom
Oct. 20 2006 2:40pm -
0 likes
sports betting solutions
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Green Bay Packers @ Miami Dolphins Analysis
Miami -4.5 $330/$300
Play On - Favorites of -160 to -475 vs. the money line (MIAMI) - off a road loss against a division rival, with a losing record.
(39-2 over the last 10 seasons.) (95.1%, +34 units. Rating = 3*)
The average money line posted in these games was: Team favored with a money line of: -250
The average score in these games was: Team 26.4, Opponent 15.5 (Average point differential = +11)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0, +0 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (9-1, +5.7 units).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (12-2, +7 units).
Since 1983 the situation's record is: (83-25, +26 units).
Detroit Lions @ New York-A Jets Analysis
Run Line Bet: New York-A Jets(h)
NY Jets -3.5 $330/$300
Play On - Home favorites of -160 to -475 vs. the money line (NY JETS) - in non-conference games, off a close wins by 7 points or less over a division rival.
(36-3 over the last 10 seasons.) (92.3%, +30.1 units. Rating = 3*)
The average money line posted in these games was: Team favored with a money line of: -196.7
The average score in these games was: Team 26.6, Opponent 14.9 (Average point differential = +11.6)
The situation's record this season is: (1-0, +1 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (10-1, +8.4 units).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (15-1, +13.4 units).
Since 1983 the situation's record is: (62-7, +45.7 units).
THIS IS FOR TOMORROWS GAME (MONDAY)
New York-N Giants @ Dallas Cowboys Analysis
Run Line Bet: Dallas Cowboys(h)
Dallas -4 $440/$400
Play Against - Road underdogs vs. the money line (NY GIANTS) - with a poor first half defense - 14 or more points per game, after scoring 3 points or less in the first half last game.
(42-3 over the last 10 seasons.) (93.3%, +35.3 units. Rating = 4*)
The average money line posted in these games was: Team favored with a money line of: -223.3
The average score in these games was: Team 29.2, Opponent 14 (Average point differential = +15.2)
The situation's record this season is: (2-0, +2 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (10-1, +7.2 units).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (18-1, +15.2 units).
Since 1983 the situation's record is: (83-23, +15.4 units).
posted by phantom
Oct. 20 2006 2:40pm -
0 likes
Dr. Bob:
4 Star Selection
****Washington 28 INDIANAPOLIS (-9.0) 24
4-Star Best Bet at +7 points or more, 3-Stars from +6 or +6 ½ and for 5-Stars if the line goes back up to +10 points or more.
3 Star Selection
***OAKLAND 23 Arizona (-3.0) 17
Oakland in a 3-Star Best Bet at +3 points or more and for 2-Stars from +2 ½ to +1 points.
2 Star Selection
**ATLANTA 23 Pittsburgh (-2.5) 17
Atlanta in a 2-Star Best Bet at +1 or more and for 3-Stars at +3 points or more.
Strong Opinion
Green Bay 20 MIAMI (-5.0) 19
Strong Opinion
Minnesota 19 SEATTLE (-6.5) 20
posted by phantom
Oct. 20 2006 2:41pm -
0 likes
Sports Memo Radio Show Contest
Ted Covers N.D.-13
TIM TRUSHUEL K.C. +5
ED CASH COLORADO +14
DONNIE BLACK OVER G.B./MIAMI `40 1/2
MARTY OTTO PITT - 2 1/2
BRENT COWE UNDER 49 TEX/NEBRASKA
ERIN RYNNNING OAK+3
FAIRWAY JAY WASH+9
SONNY PALERMO OVER 39 1/2 ARIZ/OAK
JARED KLEIN -CINN-3
Sport Memo:
Otto: S Carolina
Crow: Bama
Covers: Hawaii Over
Black: Ga Tech
Cash: Virg Tech
Erin: Baylor
Veno: Rutgers
Klein: New England
Jay: Wash/Indy Under
Palermo: Steelers
Truschel: Bengals
Pointwise & Red Sheet
Pointwise: Key releases; best = 1
Tulsa over Memphis: 1
Wisconson over Purdue: 1
Nevada over San Jose St: 2
Arizona St. over Stanford: 3
Boston College over Florida St: 3
BYU over UNLV: 4
LSU over Fresno St: 5
West Virginia over UConn: 5
*Pro*
New England over Buffalo = 2
Oakland over Arizona = 3
Seattle over Minnestota = 4
Tampa Bay over Philly = 4
Dallas over Giants = 5
Red Sheet: 89 = Superior Play, 88 = Above Average
Ohio St = 89
Arkansas = 89
N. Carolina = 88
California = 88
Arizona St. = 88
*pro* Carolina = 88
posted by phantom
Oct. 20 2006 2:43pm -
0 likes
KillerSports Report
4* Green Bay
3* New England
5* Over/Under GOY NY Giants / Dallas UNDER
4* Teaser: Jax, New England, Carolina
Marc Lawrence
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Playbook (NFL) -
5* BEST BET
Philadelphia over TAMPA BAY by 14
Before playing the Saints last week, the Eagles were 22-10 SU
in their last 32 non-division road games with 21 covers in the
mix, including a sparkling 9-3 ATS log in their last 12. Tampa is
struggling this season, winning on the fi nal play of the game
for the fi rst time last week against the defenseless Bengals.
Do the Eagles remember the home loss to Tampa in the 2002
playoffs and 17-0 home loss to Bucs to open the 2003 season?
Maybe. We do know Philly head coach Andy Reid is 17-6 ATS
away off a loss in his NFL career, including 8-1 ATS off a SU
favorite loss (5-0 ATS when favored). Pay Day in the Bay.
4* BEST BET
KANSAS CITY over San Diego by 6
Despite San Diego's road success over the last few years, the
Chargers have never viewed Kansas City as their favorite road
trip. One SU & ATS win in the last nine visits to the Barbecue
Pit is all San Diego could manage. This trip won't be any
easier. With Trent Green back (check status) and the Chiefs
playing Herm Edwards defense, the Chargers better pack their
lunches. Disparate results from last week lend great value to
the host. KC's 9-1 ATS home dog log against foes off back-toback
SUATS wins doesn't hurt, either. Bolts blow a fuse.
3* BEST BET
INDIANAPOLIS over Washington by 1
Everyone agrees that the Colt rush defense is its Achilles heel
but no one on the Colt staff seems to have the answer. Enter
Washington, a strong running team with a good enough
defense to keep Peyton Manning in check and a home-run
hitting wide receiver to keep the Colts from stacking against
the run. Indy doesn't lose many home games, we know that,
but this number is simply a little too high for our tastes. It's not
often you fi nd a double-digit NFL dog that was a double-digit
favorite the previous week (they are 7-2 ATS since 1980). With
only one of the Colts' fi ve wins by more than seven points this
season, and Washington wounded after last week's shocker
against Tennessee, the points become the play here today.
Jacksonville over HOUSTON by 8
With one win in their last 15 tries (a 21-0 win at Jacksonville in
2004) against winning teams, the Texans won't be at the top of
our list this week. The well-rested Jags have also held four of their
fi ve foes to season low yards this season. But, Jack is a lowly 1-9-1
ATS as road chalk off a non-division home win and 1-6 ATS in its
last seven tries as October favorites into revenge. No thanks.
New England over BUFFALO by 6
New England has pretty much owned the Bills. The Pats are 11-1
SU in the last 12 meetings and a phenomenal 16-3-1 ATS in the
second meeting of the season over the last two decades (beat
Buffi e in season opener this year). Forget revenge. Division home
teams with revenge against the Patriots have covered once in the
last eight opportunities. Still, we think the gap is closing between
these two AFC East rivals and, despite the Pats' 9-0-1 ATS mark in
division games before back-to-back non-division contests, we are
just a bit hesitant to lay points in this situation.
Pittsburgh over ATLANTA by 3
Despite starting this season with losses at Jacksonville and at San
Diego, Pittsburgh remains the premier road team in the NFL.
The Steelers are 16-4 SU in their last 20, including 7-2 ATS as an
underdog (check line). Atlanta is 4-18 at home off a home game,
including 1-12 ATS versus a foe off a win and 1-10 ATS as a dog.
Worse yet, in their NFL history, the Falcons are 1-11-1 SU all-time
against the Black and Gold.
MIAMI over Green Bay by 6
It's sad for us to see Brett Favre struggle like he has but, to his and
his team's credit, the Packers are still playing hard. That could be
enough to get the cover against a Miami team who is a woeful 1-11
ATS in its last dozen tries as home favorites of -3 or more. Miami's
defense, however, is in the top fi ve in the league. Green Bay's
is better than only Houston's. Dolphin receivers dropped seven
crucial passes in last week's loss to the Jets as this team continues
to shoot itself in the foot. Amputation may be in the offi ng.
NY JETS over Detroit by 1
Here we go again with the Lions on the road. Five wins in their
last 43 trips is the what the Lions have managed since the start of
the 2001 season and, with the plethora of injuries at key positions
suffered recently, they don't fi gure to improve that awful road
record. Nevertheless, the Jets don't rebound well after playing
Miami (0-6 ATS last six) and, in their last three tries as a favorite
against NFC teams, they lost all three outright. Surprisingly, the
Lions owns the better rushing stats.
Carolina over CINCINNATI by 3
Going against one of the best dogs in the NFL (Carolina 20-4 ATS
last 24) with a superior defense is not something we're in the habit
of doing and we're not doing it here. Carolina started slowly this
season but has improved every week. They are 4-0 SU with star
WR Steve Smith in the lineup this season. Cincinnati started fast
but is slipping. Take the points.
Denver over CLEVELAND by 6
The Broncos rarely lose to losing teams. With the exception of
season openers where nobody is a winner or a loser, the Broncos
are 21-5 SU in their last 26 against sub .500 clubs. That makes
things tough for the Browns because Denver is 84-9 ATS in its
last 93 SU road wins. Still, Cleveland showed its mettle against a
similar team (Baltimore) on this fi eld earlier and the Browns are 7-2
ATS in their last nine against non-division AFC foes. We think the
Broncos could possibly be more focused on their next two games
(Colts and Steelers) than they might be here today.
SEATTLE over Minnesota by 7
The Vikings had an extra week to prepare for the Seattle offense
but their history against this division is terrible. They are 0-6 SU in
their last six on the road against NFC West and 0-10 ATS in their last
ten. Seattle, though, has just one cover in its last nine tries against
rested teams. One thing's for sure, Minnesota will need more than
one TD, its average production this season, to cover this.
OAKLAND over Arizona by 1
Although Oakland is a perfect 0-9 ATS in its last nine as home dogs
and 3-19-1 ATS in its last 23 games following a division road game,
we're not going to hurry to the Arizona window. The Cardinals
have one cover in their last seven tries as road chalk and just three
wins in their last 31 road games with only eight covers. Sooner or
later, Oakland is going to break through with a win...
Monday, October 23rd
DALLAS over NY Giants by 3
In one of the toughest divisions in the NFL, it is essential that you
protect your home fi eld, particularly in division games, and Dallas
has the numbers to do just that. The Cowboys are 9-2 ATS at home
with revenge in October and 8-2 ATS at home off a non-conference
game. The rejuvenated G-Men are 7-1 ATS on the road in October
off back-to-back wins and covers. But this game is about more
than numbers. Both teams have to win to stay in step within the
division. We're still looking for a solid edge.
OVER / UNDERS
5* Panthers/Bengals OVER
4* Cardinals/Raiders OVER
3* Chargers/Chiefs UNDER
posted by phantom
Oct. 20 2006 2:46pm -
0 likes
Rockys Over/Unders
15-4
SEATTLE - MINNESOTA UNDER 41
PHILADELPHIA - TAMPA UNDER 43.5
posted by phantom
Oct. 21 2006 1:15am -
0 likes
Game: Carolina Panthers @ Cincinnati Bengals on Oct 22, 2006 1:00PM
Prediction: Carolina Panthers
Reason: My eyebrows always are raised when I see Carolina in a ‘dog spot. Carolina is 18-3 (85 percent) as an underdog. They are 4-0 straight-up since Steve Smith returned to the lineup. I see the Panthers covering this game, too.
The Bengals can’t stop the run. They have trouble with well-coached, physical teams. The Panthers fit this description plus they have game-breaking Steve Smith on the flanks. Smith is back to his devastating form of last year now that he’s recovered from a nagging hamstring injury. Thanks to Smith, Jake Delhomme is coming off a career-high 365 yards passing against a tough Ravens defense. DeShaun Foster should also be able to run on the Bengals, who surrendered 231 yards rushing to the Patriots. Injuries and suspensions have made the Bengals vulnerable at linebacker.
Cincy needs to control Carolina’s front seven. But the Bengals have serious offensive line concerns with their center and left tackle out. Julius Peppers has eight sacks and is playing better than any defensive lineman in the NFL. Rudi Johnson didn’t find any running room last week against Tampa Bay. It doesn’t get better for him here either.
It’s not just running. The Bengals also are having trouble protecting Carson Palmer. He’s been sacked 17 times in five games. Cincy is just 3-8 against the spread when laying points at home
posted by phantom
Oct. 21 2006 1:17am -
0 likes
Gator news for today
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Gator's E-Report NFL 70% Super Situations:
Play Over - Any team where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points in non-conference games, off an extremely close loss by 3 points or less to a division rival. (24-4 over the last 10 seasons.) (85.7%) PLAY: Green Bay /Miami OVER 41
Play Under - Any team where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points off 1 or more straight overs, in a game involving two average offensive teams (18-23 PPG). (42-8 over the last 5 seasons.) (84%) PLAY: Carolina / Cincinnati UNDER 44
be careful with these..the gator picks the same as Jim Ritch who suxs..FYI
posted by phantom
Oct. 21 2006 1:19am -
0 likes
Brandon Lang
40 DIME
Dallas Cowboys -
Only Lay 3. If your man has 3 1/2, you spend the xtra money and buy the hook.
Don't you EVER, and I mean EVER, lose buy the hook.
Quick note. Just sharing gut level to all of those people who are going to war with me everyday. Not whining, just stating the obvious.
The 1-2-1 Sunday in a blink of an eye could have and should have been 3-1. Indy made it a winning day but the Steelers and the Panthers cost me. I couldn't have been more on the right side of both of those games.
Steelers fumble a punt on their own 21 to set up one score for Atlanta. Rothliesberger fumbles on his own 23 setting up anothe score for the Falcons and Willie Parker fumbles on his own 39 setting up another score. Disgusting. 21 points off 3 Steelers fumbles.
Carolina has 1st and Goal at the Cincy 10 yard line with over 4 mintues to go and Delhome throws a pick on 3rd down and goal in the end zone. All Pro QB my butt.
So, as you can see, just like Saturday, the breaks went against me. What all this tells me is I am right there in my opinion and it's about to turn. I will keep getting on the right side of these games and the winning will follow.
Again, won Thursday, Friday and Sunday. 3 Of 4 Winning Days good for +33 Dimes going 3-1 with Best Bets. Oh, as you can see, it could have been so much more and trust me, it will be.
Close people. Close. If you stay right here you will be rewarded handsomely. That is all I wanted to share with you.
DALLAS
Dallas is the real deal and will shredd this imposter of a defense called the New York Giants.
Seriously, this line should be Dallas -7. Just because New York beat up on the Redskins at home and the Falcons on the road that this line is 3.
In their 3 road games this year, this so called Giants defense has been shredded. I mean shredded.
At Philly, they gave up 107 on the ground and 344 in the air to McNabb and the Eagles in a 30-24 gift wrapped win from Philly.
At Seattle, they gave up 106 on the ground and 227 in the air of a 42-30 loss that was more of a blowout than that final score would lead you to believe.
At Atlanta, they gave up 226 on the ground and 106 in the air in the 27-14 win.
Bill Parcells is too good a coach to not have a game plan that will exploit the weaknesses of this Giants defense and he has the weapons in which to do it with Julius Jones, Glenn and Terrell Owens.
He has a homefield advantage that tonight will be to great for this Giants team to overcome.
Dallas has had only two home games this year. They drilled the Redskins 27-10 and hammered the Texans 34-6.
If I have said it once, I will say it again. I don't trust Eli Manning against a good defense anytime, anyplace. Simple as that.
This is a great spot for the Cowboys to hammer this Giants team much the way the Seahawks did. Dallas is flat out the better team. Simple as that.
In their two losses this year, the Jags caught them on opening day in J'ville and they had the Eagles game in their hands but a pair of breakdowns cost them dearly in Philly.
The Cowboys defense will stop Barber and force Manning to beat them with his brain and his arm. I'm sorry, as mentioned above, on the road I don't trust either.
Lay this number with confidence and watch the better team, with the better coach, at home, handle the Giants and pull away in the 2nd half.
When the smoke clears, the Cowboys win this game going away.
FINAL SCORE: Dallas 31-17 over New York
posted by phantom
Oct. 23 2006 4:05pm -
0 likes
Gator Report
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Game: New York @ Dallas
TV: ESPN
Time: 8:30pm Eastern
Line: Dallas -3 (45)
TECHNICAL SET:
The G-Men have cashed the winning ticket in four straight in this series and have won three of those four straight up. The Giants are 7-0 ats when facing a divisional opponent for the first time of the season, 13-4 ats on the "fake stuff", 7-0 ats versus a team that averages 32 or more minutes of possession time per game, 6-0 ats as a short off a straight up win as a short in which they attempted at leat 10 or more rushes more than their season average, they are 38-22 ATS after allowing 7 points or less in the first half in 2 straight games since 1992, they are 19-8 ATS after gaining 400 or more total yards in their previous game since 1992, Giants are 28-8 ATS in their last 36 games after accumulating more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
Dallas is 2-11 ats off a win by 28 or more points, 0-10 ats as "chalk" off a game in which they had at least 3 more minutes of possession time than their season average, 0-7 ats the week after scoring 34+ points, 16-6 ATS in home games versus good rushing teams - averaging >=130 rushing yards/game since 1992, 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game, 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games in October, 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a home favorite, 21-6-1 ATS in their last 28 games after allowing less than 250 total yards in their previous game, 39-12-2 ATS in their last 53 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game, 7-18-2 ATS in their last 27 games following a SU win of more than 14 points.
SYSTEMS:
"Play On" any Monday Night underdog that covered their last 2 games. 16-6-2 ATS (73%) since 1994 / System applies to: New York Giants
"Play On" any Monday Night team that rushed for 200 or more yards and won by 7 or more points last week. 14-5 ATS (74%) since 1993 / System applies to: New York Giants / The Giants rushed for 259 yards in a 27-14 win against Atlanta last week.
"Play Against" any NFL road underdog or pick off an upset win by 10 points or more as an underdog, good team, winning 60-75% or more of their games on the season. 35-12 since 1983 (74.5%) / System says to play against the New York Giants and to play on the Dallas Cowboys
"Play Against" all NFL teams where the line is +3 to -3 excellent offensive team (>=5.8 YPP) against a team with an average defense (4.9 to 5.4 YPP), after gaining 400 or more total yards in their previous game. 45-19 since 1983 (70.3%) / System says to play against the New York Giants and to play on the Dallas Cowboys
2 systems on the boys..2 on the Giants.
posted by phantom
Oct. 23 2006 4:06pm -
0 likes
sports betting solutions
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New York-N Giants @ Dallas Cowboys Analysis
Run Line Bet: Dallas Cowboys(h)
Dallas -4 $440/$400
Play Against - Road underdogs vs. the money line (NY GIANTS) - with a poor first half defense - 14 or more points per game, after scoring 3 points or less in the first half last game.
(42-3 over the last 10 seasons.) (93.3%, +35.3 units. Rating = 4*)
The average money line posted in these games was: Team favored with a money line of: -223.3
The average score in these games was: Team 29.2, Opponent 14 (Average point differential = +15.2)
The situation's record this season is: (2-0, +2 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (10-1, +7.2 units).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (18-1, +15.2 units).
Since 1983 the situation's record is: (83-23, +15.4 units).
posted by phantom
Oct. 23 2006 4:06pm -
0 likes
Jim Ritch
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He's 4-1-1 on these games..His best bets
Giants +3
he finally won yesterday on his total plays..first time all year
he has giants over 45 1/2
still down big for the year..
32-55 going into yesterday
he went 5-4 on one set of plays
he went 2-1 on another set of plays
7-5 for yesterday on total plays
39-60 for the year
posted by phantom
Oct. 23 2006 4:07pm -
0 likes
Mike Lee from heaven
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10* Boys
posted by phantom
Oct. 23 2006 4:07pm -
0 likes
Newsletter plays
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Gold sheet
*NY Giants 21 - DALLAS 20--N.Y. (7 sacks at Atlanta) found its pass rush last week (only 5 going into the Atlanta game), the essential ingredient to discombobulating Drew Bledsoe. And G-Men need less help from their defense these says with the offense so well balanced with Eli, Tiki, Plaxico and Shockey all among the league's best at their positions. "T.O." (3 TDC last week) a positive force again, but upset quite possible with Giants playing well. CABLE TV--ESPN
MONDAY NIGHT HISTORY
NY Giants and Dallas on Monday Night
NY Giants are 9-21-1 straight-up and 10-20-1 vs. the pointspread on the road on Monday Night Football;
7-8 straight-up and 7-8 vs. the pointspread at home on Monday Night Football.
Dallas is 14-11 straight-up and 9-16 vs. the pointspread at home on Monday Night Football;
21-16 straight-up and 19-17-1 vs. the pointspread on the road on Monday Night Football.
PERFORMANCE BREAKDOWN (1993-06)
Favorites vs. Pointspread
Favored by 1-6½ points Won 79, Lost 84, Tied 3
Favored by 7 points or more Won 29, Lost 24, Tied 2
Total Favorites Won 108, Lost 108, Tied 5
Home Teams vs. Pointspreads
Home Team Favorite Won 78, Lost 81, Tied 5
Home Team Underdog Won 27, Lost 29
Home Team at Pick Won 1, Lost 0
Total Home Team Won 106, Lost 110, Tied 5
2006 MONDAY NIGHT RESULTS
Minnesota +4½ beat Washington 19-16 at Washington u36
San Diego -3 beat Oakland 27-0 at Oakland u43
Jacksonville +2½ beat Pittsburgh 9-0 u37½
New Orleans +3½ beat Atlanta 23-3 u43½
Philadelphia -11½ beat Green Bay 31-9 u48½
Denver -4½ beat Baltimore 13-3 at Denver u33
winning points
*Dallas over New York Giants by 3 (Monday)
New York’s murderous schedule continues with this Monday night road
game at Dallas. It’s the Giants’ fourth away game in six weeks.The Giants
have met five teams with a combined mark of 18-9 so they certainly are battled-
tested. They also have the pass-rushers to take advantage of Drew
Bledsoe’s lack of mobility.Tiki Barber has yet to score a touchdown this season,
but is one of the top all-purpose backs in the NFL.Terrell Owens is sure
to hijack a lot of the publicity.The key is if the Giants’ vulnerable secondary
can keep him from doing any dances. Note to totals players, five of the
last six in the series have gone under at Dallas. DALLAS 23-20.
sports reporters
MONDAY, OCTOBER 23
*DALLAS over NY GIANTS by 2
Eli Manning continues to make early-game errors. Twice already, the Giants have come all
the way back from them. But it was Tiki Barber who used the most energy to pull the Giants
from behind last Sunday at Atlanta. He would certainly figure as a Giants’ game-plan key
here in a big NFC East clash, but will be running on the road for the second straight Sunday,
against a quicker defense this time than either Washington or Atlanta. Look for a lesser outing
from Barber, but not a bad one, with slightly fewer overall gains being strung out of
bounds. This lengthens the game and will probably create a back-and-forth offensive show
as Dallas’ offensive balance forces the Giants’ defense to be less aggressive than they have
been in their last two wins. Seven sacks on Michael Vick last week doesn’t have to translate
into seven sacks on Drew Bledsoe in this game, especially if Dallas is not playing from
behind. Any team that allows 200 rushing yards like the Giants did last week, and wins, is
either lucky, or good. Or both. But the jury is still out, and Dallas’ Yards Per Point of 12.3 says
that the Cowboys are the most efficient overall scoring machine the Giants have faced so far
– more efficient than Philly or Indianapolis. DALLAS, 26-24.
Marc Lawrence
Monday, October 23rd
DALLAS over NY Giants by 3
In one of the toughest divisions in the NFL, it is essential that you
protect your home fi eld, particularly in division games, and Dallas
has the numbers to do just that. The Cowboys are 9-2 ATS at home
with revenge in October and 8-2 ATS at home off a non-conference
game. The rejuvenated G-Men are 7-1 ATS on the road in October
off back-to-back wins and covers. But this game is about more
than numbers. Both teams have to win to stay in step within the
division. We're still looking for a solid edge.
Pointwise
5 dall 26-20
posted by phantom
Oct. 23 2006 4:08pm -
0 likes
Killer Sports
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5* GOY NY Giants / Dallas UNDER
posted by phantom
Oct. 23 2006 4:10pm -
0 likes
TSW
NFL FOOTBALL
Monday, October 23rd
3* DALLAS... (-3) The Giants (3-2 SU/3-2 ATS) pulled off the mild upset last week with a 27-14 road win in Atlanta as +3 point underdogs. Tiki Barber ran for 185 yards and Eli Manning hit Jeremy Shockey with a pair of touchdown passes to lead the Giants to a come-from-behind win. Manning ended 17-of-30 for 180 yards with two interceptions for New York, which has won two straight to go above the .500 mark for the first time this season. Barber also had 42 receiving yards to go over the 200-yard mark in total offense, and Shockey ended with 55 yards on six catches for the Giants, who rallied from a 14-3 second-half deficit to beat the Falcons for the first time in four tries. Barber did much of the damage, breaking off nine runs of at least 12 yards against a defense that was allowing just 69.3 rushing yards per game, second-best in the league. New York scored the final 24 points of the game, shredding a banged-up defense that had given up only one touchdown all season. NY had a 439-377 edge in total offense, a 28-16 edge in FD's and nearly a nine minute edge on the clock, in addition to sacking Atlanta QB Michael Vick seven times. Dallas (3-2 SU/3-2 ATS) had no problem last week with Houston as the knocked off the Texans 34-6 as -13 point home chalks. Terrell Owens finished with five catches for 45 yards with three touchdowns and QB Drew Bledsoe went 17-for-28 with 168 yards and two touchdowns for the Cowboys, who bounced back from a 38-24 loss at Philadelphia the previous week. Bledsoe's first touchdown pass was the 250th of his career and he became just the 12th player in NFL history to reach that plateau. Julius Jones finished with 106 yards on 22 carries, his third straight 100- yard game, and backup QB Tony Romo had his first pass completion and first touchdown pass for Dallas, which has won three of its last four games. Dallas ended with edges in offense (354-232), FD's (21-12) and won the turnover situation 3-0. The Giants haven't been very successful when playing on Monday Night's, going 2-9 ATS and they are also 10-19 ATS when hitting the road in Monday Night affairs. On the other side of the coin, Dallas is 10-4 SU and ATS when hosting the Giants and the Cowboys have the superior defense. Dallas
Dr. Bob
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DALLAS (-3.5) 24 NY Giants 17
05:30 PM Pacific Time Monday, Oct-23 - Stats Matchup
The Giants have been a more impressive team than Dallas so far this season with both teams equally good defensively and New York much better offensively. The Giants have a well balanced attack that has averaged 6.2 yards per play in 5 games against teams that would combine to allow 4.9 yppl to an average team. Dallas, meanwhile, has averaged only 5.2 yppl against teams that would allow 5.2 yppl to an average team and they’ve averaged only 4.6 yppl in two games against better than average defensive teams Jacksonville and Philadelphia. The Giants are 0.6 yppl better than average defensively (5.0 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.6 yppl), which is the same rating as a Cowboys’ defense that has yielded 4.8 yppl to teams that would combine to average 5.4 yppl against an average team. Dallas does have an advantage in projected turnovers and a 1.9 points advantage in special teams, but my math model favors New York by ½ a point in this game. It’s unfortunate that the math favors the Giants because the technical analysis strongly favors the Cowboys. Dallas applies to a 100-43-4 ATS Monday night situation that is 2-0 ATS this season and the Cowboys also apply to a 213-127-11 ATS statistical profile indicator. The Giants, meanwhile, qualify in a negative 42-92-3 ATS road letdown situation that is based on last week’s upset win at Atlanta. The situations combine to give Dallas a 59% chance of covering at a fair line, but the Giants have a 55% chance of covering based solely on the line value (based on the historical results of my math model at similar differentials). The situations are stronger than the math in this case and I’ll favor the Cowboys to cover at home.
Charlie Sports
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nfl. giants +3 (500*)
nfl. giants @ cowboys over 44' (30*)
John Fina's Play of Winning Way Sports:
Football for October 23, 2006
NFL - 2.5 units on Dallas Cowboys -3 (-115)
Larry Ness MNF Insider: Dallas -3
Pac Star
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Under 45
Big Al
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NFL
Big Al's 100% Perfect ATS Monday Night Crush Job
The Boys in a rout big al says.
ppp
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2% Dallas
2% Under
free pick under first 1/2
posted by phantom
Oct. 23 2006 4:14pm -
0 likes
Alex Smart
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2* New York Giants +3.5 (-105)
Platinum Picks -
Gold - Dallas Cowboys
SPORTS UNLIMITED
3 dallas
Frank Magliosa -
1.5 Units Under NY Giants
__________________
Mike LIneback 4* Giants
__________________
Spreitzer
NFC GOY
DALLAS COWBOYS
posted by phantom
Oct. 23 2006 7:22pm -
0 likes
dave cokin 3* boys
jim feist 5* giants
The Pooch
GIANTS VS COWBOYS
HUGE NFC East clash tonight in Dallas as these two 3-2 teams collide for sole possession of first place in the division. Those of you who follow our Key Releases know we passed the entire NFL card this past week. While we wish we could make up for that with a strong play on tonights game, that's not going to be the case. We just don't feel we have any significant edge with either side here, or the total for that matter. You can't bet these games for the sake of betting them. That will only lead you to the poor house.
We will offer up a 2* play however, which is our lowest rated selection.
Our number on the game is Dallas by 6. So for this small play, we'll go with our number.
The way the Giants started their year, it looked like they were going to have big time trouble on the defensive side of the ball. But then the last two weeks they held the Skins to 3 and the Falcons to 14. But asking them to win on the road against solid teams two consecutive weeks may be a tall order (Giants 4th road game in 6 weeks). The Cowboys have only had two other home games this year and easily disposed of the Skins and the Texans in those. So look for Dallas to stay unbeaten at home here.
Giants 10-20 against the spread on the road on Monday Nights
Giants 2-9 against the spread their last 11 Monday Nights
Dallas 9-16 against the spread at home on Mondays
5 of the last 6 in this series have gone UNDER the total
16 of 26 in series since 1992 have gone UNDER the total
Once again, no big play. Simply a matter of going with our number on the game which favors Dallas to cover here. Based on recent history in this series along with the Giants defense apparantly waking up as of late, the UNDER may be worth a peek as well.
2* DALLAS -3 -117 OVER GIANTS (Pinnacle)
2* UNDER 45 (Betmania)
21 services on Dallas
7 on NYG
3 on the over
6 on the under
posted by phantom
Oct. 23 2006 7:24pm -
0 likes
Lenny Stevens
Dallas
And Under
Root
Chairman Cowboys
posted by phantom
Oct. 23 2006 7:25pm -
0 likes
HOT SERVICES ]
ROOT ( 7-2-1 ):
Chairman - DALLAS
STILL WARM ]
SEBASTIAN ( 6-3 ):
100* MNF - Dallas/Ny Giants UNDER
NESS ( 6-3 ) :
DALLAS
KELSO ( 4-2-1 ):
Monday Night Money - 10* NY GIANTS
MAGLIOSA ( 2-0 Sun ):
Dallas/NyGiants UNDER
posted by phantom
Oct. 23 2006 7:33pm -
0 likes
Blazer 3 * Dallas
Northcoast 2* Dallas Over
All other services passed. Gary
posted by diceday
Oct. 23 2006 8:02pm -
0 likes
A PLAY 4 (0-1) (3-2) dallas and under
ANIMAL 5 (5* 0-1) (0-1) (2-2) giants and over
ATS 5 (1-4) 4 giants
BEN BURNS 1 (1-1) (2-0) UNDER
BIG AL 2 (1-1) (1-2) DALLAS
BILL BAILEY 4 (2-4) giants
BANKER 3 (0-1) (2-3) over
BLAZER 5 (1-0) dallas
BRANDON LANG 2 (0-1) (3-2) (1-0) 40 DALLAS
CASH 1 (0-1) (4-1) dallas
COACHES CORNER 1 (3-3) dallas
COMPUSPORTS 1 (2-2) pass
COWTOWN 6 (1-1) over
COMPUTER KIDS 1 (2-3) under
DAVE COKIN 5 (1-1) (4-1) dallas
DOLPHIN 4 (3-3) dallas
DIAMOND STAR 3 (2-0) (2-0) (0-1) DALLAS
DIRECTOR SPORTS 2 (1-1) (2-2) TOTAL GOY UNDER
DOC ENTERPRISES 2 (4-2) 5* DALLAS
DOCTOR BOB 2 OPINION dallas
EXECUTIVE 5 (2-1) OPINION dallas
EXPERT 1 (2-2) dallas
FAB FOUR PICKS 1 (0-1) (4-1) dallas
FINAL SCORE 1 (4-3) dallas
GAME DAY 2 (1-2) opinion dallas
GAME PLAN 1 (2-3) dallas
GARDEN STATE 3 (2-3) over
GOLD SHEET 3 (0-1) pass
GUARANTEED 2 (1-0) DALLAS
INSIDERS EDGE 5 (40* 2-2) (1-1) OVER
INSIDE STEAM 6 (1-2) (1-2) over
INSIDE INFO 3 (2-3) dallas
JB SPORTS 3 (3-0) GIANTS
JIM FEIST 5 (2-1) (1-1) (3-3) giants
KELSO STURGEON 1 (1-0) (3-8) BEST BETS CLUB 10* GIANTS
LENNY STEVENS 1 (1-0) (8-3) 10* dallas and under
LT PROFITS 6 (3-1) 2 under
LV INSIDERS 3 (400* 1-1) (1-2) OVER
LV LOCKLINE 3 (50* 0-1) (2-3) under
LV SPORTS 4 (0-1) pass
MAGLIOSA 2 (3-0) UNDER
MAXWELL 1 (2-3) pass
MIKE NERI 6 (2-1) OPINION dallas
MILLIONAIRES 6 pass
NICK BOGDANOVICH 1 (2-0) over
NORTHCOAST 3 (2-4) 2 dallas -- opinion over
NY SPORTS 3 (4-2) giants
OVER AND UNDER 1 (2-3) under
POINTWISE 2 (4-2) dallas
POINTSPREAD MAVEN 6 (3-3) 10* over
POWER PLAYS 2 (1-0) (2-1) dallas
PLATINUM 2 (0-1) DALLAS
PREFERRED PICKS 5 (1-0) (1-1) pass
PRIMETIME 6 (2-2) (0-1) (0-1) OVER
PRIVATE INVESTORS 1 (3-3) dallas and under
PRIVATE PLAYERS OF PITT 1 (5-6) 2 dallas and under
PROBABILITY 5 (0-1) pass
RAIDER 1 (1-1) MONDAY NIGHT GOY DALLAS
RANDY RATDKE 5 (2-1) opinion dallas
REED HARRIS 1 (2-1) (2-1) dallas
SCORE 4 (2-4) 300 giants
SCOTT SPREITZER 5 (1-1) (1-3) TKO NFC GOY DALLAS
SILVER STAR 4 (1-4) dallas
SLAM DUNK 1 (1-0) (3-3) DALLAS
SOLID GOLD PICK 1 (1-2) dallas
SPORTS GURU 6 (40* 0-1) (1-4) 30 GIANTS
SPORTS ANALYST 1 (1-0) (2-1) dallas
SPORTS AUTHORITY 4 (2-1) (3-0) OVER
SPORTS BANK 6 (400* 2-2) (2-0) DALLAS
SPORTS DOCTOR 6 (3-3) 75* giants
SPORTS INVESTORS 4 (9* 3-2) (1-0) DALLAS
SPORTS NETWORK 1 (3-3) dallas
SPORT TRENDS 1 (4-3) dallas
SPORTS UNLIMITED 5 (4* 1-3) dallas
STATISTICIAN 5 (0-1) (1-1) giants and under
SUPER LOCK 1 (3-3) DALLAS
SUPER SYSTEMS 1 (3-3) DALLAS
SWAMI 1 (0-2) dallas
SYCAMORE 4 (1-2) pass
TD CLUB 5 (1-1) under
THE INSIDER 1 (2-3) giants
TIPPS 1 (2-1) (2-2) giants
TOMMY THUNDER 3 (3-3) 7 under
TONY WRIGHT 6 (1-5) 5* over
TOP DAWG 1 (2-1) under
TRU-LINE 1 (0-1) (1-0) dallas
UNDERDOG 4 pass
UNIVERSAL 1 (3-3) dallas
USA SPORTS 1 (2-4) dallas
VEGAS CONNECTION 3 (0-1) (1-4) DALLAS
VEGAS PIPELINE 1 (1-0) (3-2) dallas
WAYNE ROOT 2 (1-0) (3-4) MILLIONAIRE dallas
WILDCAT 4 (7* 2-0) pass
WINDY CITY 4 (1-0) (9* 2-2) (1-0) DALLAS
WINNERS PATH 2 (0-1) (2-1) pass
WISE GUYS 4 (3-3) UNDER
WIZARD 1 (3-1) dallas
MIKE ROSE 6 (5* 1-0) (3-0) no report
FRIENDS OF MIKE LEE 2 (2-2) 10* DALLAS
LARRY NESS 2 (6-1) INSIDER DALLAS
MTI 1 (1-1) (2-2) MONDAY NIGHT GOY UNDER
GLENN MCGREW 6 (2-0) no report
HILTON CONTEST 2 (0-1) (2-1) pass
DOCTOR D 6 (1-0) 2 under
BOB BALFE 2 (3-2) over
ALEX SMART 6 (1-1) no report
JEFF CLINE 6 (2-0) (1-0) no report
PACIFIC STAR 2 (2-2) under
TONY DIAMOND 2 (1-1) giants
NETWORK 2 giants and under
SEBASTIAN 2 100* UNDER
posted by phantom
Oct. 23 2006 8:07pm