Winning Points Nfl
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****BEST BET
Carolina over *Cincinnati by 14
Maybe it has been a little too premature to scoff at Carolina as a serious
Super Bowl contender. Since star wide receiver Steve Smith returned to the
lineup, the Panthers are 4-0. It’s not a coincidence. Smith is the most dangerous
wideout in football. He has been getting healthier and healthier
each week. Likewise, his stats keep growing.The Panthers are a formidable
foe with Smith.Their stature increases. It’s not just Smith.The Panthers also
have the most dominant player on defense, Julius Peppers. He leads the
league in sacks. Peppers can wreak a lot of havoc on Cincinnati with
Carson Palmer having protection problems. Palmer has been sacked 17
times.This is especially alarming because the Bengals try hard to be a balanced
team.Also distressing for the Bengals are their offensive line injuries.
The Panthers’ run defense has come alive holding their last four foes under
100 yards rushing.The Bengals, on the other hand, rank among the bottom
10 teams in rush defense.We’re talking about a run defense that surrendered
a whopping 231 yards on the ground to the Patriots in Cincinnati’s
last home game three weeks ago. Palmer, coming off serious injury concerns,
is not where he was a year ago when he could compensate for any
defensive shortcomings. In addition, Chad Johnson is having an off-season.
He’s averaging just 60 yards receiving per game. He has yet to break 100
yards.Traditionally the Panthers are at their best as underdogs, while the
Bengals are at their worst as home favorites. Carolina has covered a remarkable
18 of 21 (85) percent when taking points.The Bengals are just 3-8 ATS
(27 percent) laying points at home. Until these trends are reversed, the
Panthers are worth riding anytime you can grab points with them, especially
with Smith now 100 percent and the Bengals’ offensive line bangedup.
CAROLINA 28-14.
***BEST BET
*Houston over Jacksonville by 8
Jacksonville has a tendency to play down to its competition’s level.Look no
further than this series for proof.The Texans are one of the worst teams in
the NFL, but they take the Jaguars very serious. It’s become their rivalry
game with many of their players having roots in Florida. Houston is 6-2 ATS
against Jacksonville, 4-4 SU.The Texans have beaten and covered three of
four at home against the Jaguars.Want more evidence of the Jaguars’ vulnerability?
Jacksonville is 1-9-1 ATS as a road favorite following a straight-up
non-division home win.The Jaguars were off last week, but on the previous
Sunday buried the Jets, 41-0, at Alltel Stadium. Jacksonville has been dominant
at home, outscoring their foes, 74-17. On the road, though, the Jaguars
are 0-2 having surrendered a combined 57 points to the Colts and
Redskins. Of course, the Texans are not the Colts. But new coach Gary
Kubiak has installed a respectable offense. It’s respectable enough where
David Carr was leading the NFL in passing through Week 5.Andre Johnson
ranked third in receptions and fourth in receiving yardage heading into
Week 6 and the offensive line was protecting Carr better. Jacksonville’s
stout defense has taken several major injury hits. Out for the season are
middle linebacker and leading tackler Mike Peterson and Reggie Hayward,
who led Jacksonville in sacks last year. In addition, defensive tackle Marcus
Stroud is questionable.The Jaguars’ run defense isn’t so imposing without
Peterson and Stroud, who teams with John Henderson to give Jacksonville
one of the better run stop units. Houston’s weakness is a defense that ranks
near the bottom in nearly all the major statistical categories.The Texans are
surrendering 29.4 points a game. But they have the offense, motivation, history
and catch Jacksonville missing key players to pull the upset. HOUSTON
24-16.
**PREFERRED
*Cleveland over Denver by 3
The Browns have the special teams, coaching, defensive intensity and playmakers,
Braylon Edwards and Kellen Winslow Jr., to spring an upset here.
Most important, they are in a tremendous situational spot. Denver is off a
physical Monday night home win against Baltimore.This was followed by a
Sunday night home game against long-standing division rival Oakland, a
team Broncos coach Mike Shanahan despises. After this matchup, the
Broncos host the Colts in another marquee matchup.This is the only road
game Denver plays in a four-week span. It’s also the only matchup not
nationally televised or drawing heavy media scrutiny. If the Broncos are
going to have a flat spot, this is it. Cleveland has a different focus. The
Browns were idle last week. They will be rested and fired-up. Offensive
coordinator Maurice Carthon and his play-calling have come under fire.
Don’t be surprised if the Browns have some new wrinkles given the extra
preparation time. QB Charlie Frye is athletic and courageous. He has the
support of his teammates. Edwards and Winslow give him two excellent
targets in the passing game. Denver has covered only one of its last six
against AFC North Division squads.The Broncos usually start slow.They’ve
scored just seven points in the first quarter.The Browns can build momentum
early and pull the upset. CLEVELAND 19-16.
**PREFERRED
New England over *Buffalo by 15
Buffalo gave New England all it could handle opening week, leading by 10
in the second half before finally losing, 19-17. Don’t look for the final score
to be so close this time around. Good-looking rookie Lawrence Maroney is
now more involved in the Patriots’ ground attack. He and Corey Dillon can
take advantage of Buffalo’s vulnerable run defense with a strong 1-2 ground
punch. The Bills do have good pass rushers.Tom Brady, though, has been
sacked just five times. He’s had time now to get in sync with his new
receivers.With an effective ground game, Brady should find little trouble
exploiting the Bills’ young defensive backs. Conversely, New England
entered its bye week rated 12th in rush defense.The Patriots will be keying
on Willis McGahee, who they held to 70 yards rushing on 20 carries, a
3.5 average, in the first meeting. So the Bills are going to need J.P. Losman
to step up here.We don’t see that happening. Not with New England’s
defense having better personnel this year compared to last season and Bill
Belichick having two weeks to prepare a strong game plan.The Patriots are
giving up 14.8 points per game. Last year, they surrendered 21.1 points.The
Patriots have covered nine of their past 11 away contests.They also have
defeated the Bills 11 of the last 12 times, covering eight of the 12 (66 percent).
NEW ENGLAND 28-13.
*CLOSE CALLS
San Diego over *Kansas City by 7
Granted Arrowhead Stadium is one of the toughest road venues. But with
Philip Rivers looking better and better, the Chargers have been rolling
along having led for all but one minute this season. San Diego is 14-2-2 (87
percent) ATS on the road.The Chargers also have covered four of their last
five at Arrowhead.The Chiefs’ aged offensive line no longer can open holes
for Larry Johnson against top run defenses like San Diego’s.With journeyman
Damon Huard filling in for injured Trent Green (check status), the
Chiefs don’t have the threat of a passing attack either to keep the Chargers
from bunching up on Johnson.As the Steelers showed last week, the Chiefs
still have a long ways to go on defense, too. SAN DIEGO 26-19.
Pittsburgh over *Atlanta by 3
The Falcons have rushed for more than 200 yards in all but one of their
games. However, it’s hard to envision seeing them do it against Pittsburgh,
which has stout defensive linemen and quick linebackers to keep Michael
Vick in check. After being held without a touchdown pass and throwing
seven interceptions the first five weeks, Ben Roethlisberger broke out in a
big way last Sunday with a near perfect game against Kansas City. Perhaps
the rust is gone. The Falcons have yet to prove they can step up against
superior competition.Atlanta is 1-8 SU, 1-7-1 ATS since last year when facing
playoff teams. PITTSBURGH 15-12.
*Miami over Green Bay by 2
It’s hard to lay points with a Dolphins squad that has yet to score more than
17 points even against a team as young and turnover prone as the Packers.
The Packers do probably catch a break, though, drawing Joey Harrington
rather than recovering Daunte Culpepper. Since 2003, Culpepper had
thrown 14 touchdown passes against the Packers with zero interceptions
when he was at Minnesota, while Green Bay was 5-2 against Detroit when
Harrington started for the Lions. Miami didn’t allow a sack against the Jets
last week, but still has surrendered 22 on the season. It’s Miami’s first home
game in four weeks, but Green Bay’s had an additional week to get ready.
MIAMI 21-19.
Philadelphia over *Tampa Bay by 4
Can the Eagles get upset on the road twice in two weeks by an NFC South
team? Tampa Bay has history going 14-3-1 ATS as a home underdog.There’s
such a big quarterback difference, though. Donovan McNabb is making
MVP noise with a touchdown-to-interception ratio of 13-2. He’s been held
under 288 yards passing just once this season, with the Saints holding him
to 247 last Sunday. Bucs rookie Bruce Gradkowski makes his third start.
He’ll be going against a blitz-happy Eagles defense with an excellent secondary.
Eagles ace defensive coordinator Jim Johnson now has NFL game
film on Gradkowski.Tampa ranked first in defense last year.There has been
slippage this season with sloppy tackling and just five takeaways.
PHILADELPHIA 17-13.
*New York Jets over Detroit by 5
Oh,well, Detroit fans at least the Tigers are good.Kevin Jones could have a
second consecutive 100-yard rushing game here as the Jets are giving up
an average of 157.2 yards on the ground their last five games.The expected
return of hard-hitting strong safety Kenoy Kennedy should aid a porous
Detroit secondary. The Jets also are 1-8 ATS after meeting the Dolphins.
What keeps us off Detroit is its cluster injury problem on the offensive line
where 10 linemen already have been lost. Detroit is down to just two offensive
line starters. It’s also the Lions’ third road game in four weeks.The Jets
aren’t pretty, but somehow rookie coach Eric Mangini has New York at 3-3.
Mangini has the defensive mind to exploit Detroit’s battered offensive line,
especially playing at home. NY JETS 22-17.
*Indianapolis over Washington by 7
Has there ever been a more uninspired 5-0 team than Indianapolis? The
Colts have been on cruise control.They haven’t looked especially good or
inspired with four of their five victories coming by a total of 16 points.
That’s an average victory margin of four points.Washington’s secondary
gets a big boost with the return of cornerback Shawn Springs, who made
his season debut last week after being out since the first preseason game
with groin and abdominal injuries. Being idle last week, though, just could
reinvigorate Indy. The Redskins couldn’t stop the Jaguars, Cowboys and
even Titans, plus the Giants moved the ball at will against them. Peyton
Manning inside a dome could light them up. INDIANAPOLIS 34-27.
*Seattle over Minnesota by 6
It took two defensive TDs at home against the Lions for the Vikings to break
the 20-point barrier.There’s just not a lot of firepower with Minnesota.New
Coach Brad Childress has switched the offense to a power-ground attack
with Chester Taylor running and Brad Johnson throwing dink passes.
Seattle has yet to allow a 100-yard rusher. But before we can lay big points
with Seattle we need to know if Shaun Alexander (check status) is going to
play and if tight end Jerramy Stevens is back from a knee injury. Stevens’
return could open the middle for the Seahawks making wide receivers
Darrell Jackson and Deion Branch even more dangerous. SEATTLE 25-19.
*Oakland over Arizona by 1
We all know how bad the Raiders are.Art Shell does a great impersonation
of a statue, Randy Moss is apathetic and Jerry Porter wasted. The Raiders
have been nothing but a black hole for bettors. However, this is a tough
spot for Arizona. The Cardinals’ strength is passing. The Raiders, however,
actually rated second in pass defense through Week 5.This would be Matt
Leinart first road start – provided he survives the Bears this past Monday
night.Traveling on a short week is bad enough, but it’s made doubly worse
following a game against the physical Bears. Edgerrin James entered
Monday’s game averaging just 3.1 yards per rush with a long run of 14
yards.The Cards may also be without star WR Larry Fitzgerald (check status).
OAKLAND 21-20.
*Dallas over New York Giants by 3 (Monday)
New York’s murderous schedule continues with this Monday night road
game at Dallas. It’s the Giants’ fourth away game in six weeks.The Giants
have met five teams with a combined mark of 18-9 so they certainly are battled-
tested. They also have the pass-rushers to take advantage of Drew
Bledsoe’s lack of mobility.Tiki Barber has yet to score a touchdown this season,
but is one of the top all-purpose backs in the NFL.Terrell Owens is sure
to hijack a lot of the publicity.The key is if the Giants’ vulnerable secondary
can keep him from doing any dances. Note to totals players, five of the
last six in the series have gone under at Dallas. DALLAS 23-20.
OVER/UNDER
**UNDER: Pittsburgh at Atlanta – The Falcons have held three of
their five foes to 10 points or less, but Michael Vick is completing only 50
percent of his throws, averaging less than six yards per attempt.
OVER: Washington at Indianapolis – Peyton Manning should have
lots of time to throw, while the Redskins have skill-position players to take
advantage of a soft defense.
UNDER: Philadelphia at Tampa Bay – Philly’s defense is going to
cause problems for Bruce Gradkowski while the Bucs’ veteran defense can
slow one-dimensional offenses at home.
