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Newsletters For The Week Of 14th
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THE GOLD SHEET
MONDAY, OCTOBER 9
*DENVER 13 - Baltimore 12--Defensively-rugged Baltimore owns 5 straight covers (4 wins) vs. the Broncos the L6Ys, going 1-1 SU in Denver. And the Raven defense (Balt. "under" 17 of last 21 away) will severely test QB Plummer's tendency to become "Bad Jake," as opposed to 2005's reliable "Good Jake" (only 7 ints. in reg. season). Ravens +8 in TOs TY, with LB Bart Scott (5 sacks) joining Ray Lewis in wreaking havoc. And quick Denver stop unit allowing only 10 ppg TY! CABLE TV--ESPN
(05-DEN. 12-Balt. 10...B.20-17 D.32/96 B.23/72 B.23/40/2/251 D.19/33/0/222 D.1 B.2)
(05-DENVER -15 12-10...SR: Baltimore 4-2)
SUNDAY, OCTOBER 15
Cincinnati 27 - TAMPA BAY 17--With its injured LBs, Cincy (yielded 231 rush yds. vs. N.E) has been vulnerable on the ground. However, injuries (RT Walker gone for the season) and youth in the T.B. OL have meant that Bucs (31st in rushing through Week Four, but 187 YR last week) have rarely gotten out of first gear in 2006. Rookie Bruce Gradkowski (2 TDs, 0 ints.) held his own last week, but Carson Palmer way ahead, even with Bengal WR Chris Henry suspended. Cincy 12-1-1 vs. spread last 14 away!
(02-Tampa Bay -7 35-7...SR: Tampa Bay 5-3)
WASHINGTON 34 - Tennessee 13--Washington attack had risen to No. 2 in NFL until last week's 19-3 stall in New York. Still, prefer to lay the lumber against rebuilding Tennessee, especially with Vince Young (only 63 YP in cover at Indy) still facing a steep learning curve. Even before DT Haynesworth (the team's biggest run stopper) was suspended, the overwhelmed Titan defense was giving up 30 ppg, ranked last vs. the rush, and was last in TO margin. Skins 8-3 last 11 when favored.
(02-Washington +5 31-14...SR: Tennessee 5-4)
OVER THE TOTAL DALLAS 35 - Houston 17--Despite his team's problems (last in defense; 27th in rush offense, 15 sacks), rookie HC Kubiak gave Houston nearly a full week off during Texans' bye week. For sure, the more-careful QB Carr (73%, 7 TDs, only 2 ints.) and WRs A. Johnson (30 recs.) & Moulds (18) deserved it. But the defense could have used the work to get prepared for what figures to be a pretty angry Cowboy bunch (yielded 7 sacks at Philly). Major size & depth edges on defense for host, and at RB and WR on offense.
(02-HOUSTON +8 19-10...SR: Houston 1-0)
Buffalo 24 - DETROIT 20--Even with last week's 40-7 humiliation in Chicago, Buffalo had exhibited more positives than Detroit, which ran for 16 yards and saw harried QB Kitna bobble away lead in Minny. Willis McGahee (439 YR) the steadiest force in this game, and Lee Evans the top WR, especially with Roy Williams (check status) banged up last week. Bills quicker on defense, and HC Jauron was on Lions' staff LY!
(2006 Preseason: Buffalo +3 beat Detroit 20-13 at Detroit)
(02-BUFFALO -7' 24-17...SR: EVEN 3-3-1)
ST. LOUIS 24 - Seattle 17--Starting TE Jerramy Stevens (out since the preseason) returns for Seattle, but the big question is whether star RB Shaun Alexander will as well. Former N.E. WR Deion Branch (3 for 57) saw his first action in Chicago, with HC Mike Holmgren saying he was looking forward to the game when all his top skill performers would be in action. But St. Louis QB Marc Bulger (14 TDs, 9 ints. LY) is focusing on avoiding TOs TY (no ints. first 5 games). And RB Steven Jackson (465 YR) plus WRs Holt & Bruce also hot.
(05-Sea. 37-ST. LOU. 31...Se.26-20 Se.30/134 St.17/77 St.26/40/1/309 Se.27/38/0/299 Se.0 St.1)
(05-SEA. 31-St. Lou. 16...St.22-21 Se.36/174 St.21/75 St.28/40/1/278 Se.17/29/2/243 Se.0 St.1)
(05-Seattle +3 37-31, SEATTLE -6' 31-16...SR: St. Louis 10-6)
NY. Giants 24 - ATLANTA 23--Falcs have rushed for 306 & 262 yards in their first two home games, but they've generated only 3 offensive TDs, bogging down repeatedly in the red zone. In 17 trips overall in the red zone TY, they have converted only 3 into TDs (18%). And teams catching up with many of Michael Vick's counters. Prefer the balance of Giants, who have dealt with a much tougher schedule of foes so far.
(04-Atlanta -3 14-10...SR: Atlanta 10-7)
Philadelphia 26 - NEW ORLEANS 20--With Brian Westbrook back, Eagles were quite a force vs. Dallas last week. But they reached quite an emotional peak for the return of Terrell Owens, while Saints were flat at outset vs. rookie QB Gradkowski and Tampa Bay. Still, not sure youthful N.O. OL can cope with the quality defensive front of Eagles, who now also have Pro Bowl CB Sheppard back in the secondary. Brees & Bush will have to overachieve for Eagles to get the number vs. red-hot McNabb & Co.
(03-PHILADELPHIA -5' 33-20...SR: Philadelphia 15-8)
Carolina 16 - BALTIMORE 15--With Ravens' Monday night result unknown at this writing, must be mindful of the fact that Carolina is 17-3 last L3+Ys as an underdog. And Panthers 3-0 SU since the return of all-pro WR Steve Smith. But be careful if Carolina--often vulnerable vs. the spread when favored (no covers in role TY) because of its conservative style--moves to the favorite vs. rugged Baltimore defense. Ravens "under" first four TY and 15 of 20 prior to Monday nighter in Denver.
(02-CAROLINA +2 10-7...SR: Carolina 2-0)
Miami 20 - NY JETS 17--N.Y. (5 straight covers; 13-2-1) owns tech edge in series. But Miami plays better defense. And Jets have yielded 147, 169, 160 & 181 yards on the ground the last four games, so Dolphins figure to get their ground game going more than a little bit despite their early OL injuries. And Joey Harrington--for the most part--took good advantage of the Miami receivers last week in New England. Remember, Jets were the underdogs in their first 5 games TY.
(05-JETS 17-Miami 7...N.20-15 N.34/98 M.18/66 N.19/30/0/173 M.20/43/1/169 N.0 M.0)
(05-MIAMI 24-Jets 20...N.24-14 M.31/128 N.25/90 N.28/42/0/298 M.14/29/1/169 M.0 N.3)
(05-NY JETS -5' 17-7, MIAMI -8' 24-20...SR: NY Jets 41-39-1)
San Diego 27 - SAN FRANCISCO 13--Number getting lofty for Chargers, but S.D. defense playing at such a high level that it's difficult to side with any team that doesn't have a veteran offense, especially in the line and at QB. Such is not the case with the still-developing Niners, their young QB, and injury-thinned OL. S.D. QB Rivers has only 2 ints. in first 4 games, and Marty has enough confidence in him to allow him to attempt 37 passes last week vs. fired-up Steeler defense.
(2006 Preseason: San Francisco -3' beat San Diego 23-14 at San Francisco)
(02-SAN DIEGO +2' 20-17 (OT)...SR: San Francisco 7-4)
PITTSBURGH 31 - Kansas City 13--Not so surprisingly, Herm Edwards--a former DB--has the K.C. defense playing well, taking a stretch of 10 Qs without allowing a TD into their game last week in Arizona. But QB Huard was very tentative at crucial times vs. Cards, and OL making little room for RB Larry Johnson (check neck injury) with OTs laboring. Expect peak effort from champs after three straight losses, with rowdy defense setting up easy scores to get sluggish Pittsburgh offense back on track. Steelers "over" 31-9-1 last 41 at Heinz!
(03-KANSAS CITY -3' 41-20...SR: Pittsburgh 16-9)
*DENVER 27 - Oakland 6--Whether its Brooks, Walter or Tuiasosopo at QB for Oakland, will stick with Mike Shanahan, who is now 15-6-1 vs. former boss Al Davis' team since Shanahan took over in Denver! Insiders praising Broncos for having the quickest defensive unit in the league, which is not good news for the struggling Raider OL & QBs. And it wasn't a positive sign after the Oakland-Cleveland game when Randy Moss said on radio it would be okay to trade him! TV--NBC
(05-Denver 31-OAK. 17...O.20-18 D.38/121 O.17/60 O.26/50/3/275 D.16/22/0/205 D.2 O.0)
(05-DENVER 22-Oak. 3...D.24-15 D.40/155 O.17/87 D.19/29/1/259 O.17/41/1/161 D.0 O.1)
(05-Denver -3 31-17, DENVER -13' 22-3...SR: Oakland 54-37-2)
MONDAY, OCTOBER 16
*Chicago 30 - ARIZONA 13--Matt Leinart (2 TDP) enjoyed some early success vs. K.C. in his debut. But his challenge now virtually triples as he faces the voracious Chicago defense. The Bears have been relentless and nearly merciless TY, giving up only 7 ppg. Playing the inexperienced rookie might not be the best role for the weekly Monday night drama. And who can gainsay the Chicago offense, with Rex Grossman intelligently generating 31 ppg and Thomas Jones running with previously-unseen determination. Better lay it, pal, and count on Brian Urlacher & Co. to keep Zona's WRs out of the end zone. CABLE TV--ESPN
(2006 Preseason: Arizona +3' beat Chicago 23-16 at Chicago)
(03-CHICAGO -4 28-3...SR: Chicago 54-26-6)
MONDAY NIGHT HISTORY
Chicago and Arizona on Monday Night
Chicago is 6-21 straight-up and 8-18-1 vs. the pointspread on the road on Monday Night Football;
10-11 straight-up and 7-13-1 vs. the pointspread at home on Monday Night Football.
Arizona is 3-5-1 straight-up and 3-6 vs. the pointspread at home on Monday Night Football;
2-5 straight-up and 2-5 vs. the pointspread on the road on Monday Night Football.
HEAD-TO-HEAD MEETINGS SINCE 2001 (not necessarily Mon. night)
2006 Preseason: Arizona +3½ beat Chicago 23-16 at Chicago
2003 Reg. Seas.: Chicago -4 beat Arizona 28-3 at Chicago
2001 Reg. Seas.: Chicago -7 beat Arizona 20-13 at Chicago
NFL KEY RELEASES
WASHINGTON by 21 over Tennessee
ST. LOUIS by 7 over Seattle
PITTSBURGH by 18 over Kansas City
------------------------
OVER THE TOTAL in the Dallas-Houston game
2006 NFL RATINGS & POINTSPREAD RECORDS
All teams measured from the TOP RATING of zero. HFV - Home Field Value. Deduct allotted points for HFV from rating of Home Team. R - Current Power Rating. SUR - Straight-Up Won-Loss Record. PSR - Won-Loss Record vs. Pointspread. O/U-Total Over-under record (number of games that went over-number of games that went under). PF & PA - Average Points Scored For and Against. Results at Home listed under Home. Results on Road listed under Away. Teams with a bold + or - have had their ratings moved 2 points or more for the better (+) or worse (-) since last week.
TOTAL HOME AWAY
TEAM R HFV SUR PSR O/U PF-PA PSR PF-PA PSR PF-PA
Arizona- 13 3 1-4 1-4 3-2 18-24 1-2 23-22 0-2 10-27
Atlanta 4 4 3-1 3-1 1-3 17-11 2-0 23-7 1-1 12-15
Baltimore 4 4 4-0 3-1 1-3 22-8 2-0 22-10 1-1 21-7
Buffalo 10 3 2-3 3-2 2-3 15-21 1-1 19-20 2-1 13-22
Carolina 4 3 3-2 0-4-1 1-4 17-18 0-2 16-17 0-2 20-20
Chicago+ 1 3 5-0 4-1 3-1 31-7 3-0 37-7 1-1 23-8
Cincinnati 3 2 3-1 3-1 3-1 25-21 1-1 24-28 2-0 26-15
Cleveland 12 2 1-4 2-2-1 2-3 16-22 1-1 14-17 1-1 18-25
Dallas 4 3 2-2 2-2 3-0 28-22 1-0 27-10 1-2 29-25
Denver 5 5 2-1 1-2 0-3 12-10 0-1 9-6 1-1 14-13
Detroit 12 2 0-5 1-4 4-1 18-28 1-1 15-20 0-3 19-34
Green Bay 13 1 1-4 1-4 2-3 17-28 0-3 16-28 1-1 20-28
Houston 12 2 1-3 1-3 2-2 17-28 1-2 14-23 0-1 24-43
Indianapolis 0 2 5-0 3-2 2-3 27-20 2-1 26-17 1-1 29-25
Jacksonville 4 3 3-2 3-2 3-2 24-15 3-0 25-6 0-2 22-29
Kansas City 7 3 2-2 2-2 2-2 20-13 1-1 26-12 1-1 15-15
Miami- 11 1 1-4 0-5 1-4 12-18 0-2 10-13 0-3 14-22
Minnesota 7 2 3-2 4-1 1-3 18-16 3-0 19-16 1-1 16-17
New England 2 3 4-1 3-2 2-3 22-15 1-2 15-15 2-0 31-15
New Orleans 8 2 4-1 4-1 2-3 24-17 1-1 24-12 3-0 24-21
NY Giants+ 4 3 2-2 2-2 2-2 25-24 1-1 20-15 1-1 30-33
NY Jets- 10 2 2-3 3-2 5-0 19-26 1-1 23-28 2-1 17-26
Oakland 18 2 0-4 0-4 3-1 12-28 0-2 11-26 0-2 13-31
Philadelphia 4 3 4-1 4-1 3-2 31-19 2-1 31-21 2-0 31-17
Pittsburgh 3 3 1-3 1-3 2-2 15-19 1-1 24-23 0-2 7-16
St. Louis 9 3 4-1 4-1 1-4 22-20 2-0 30-22 2-1 17-18
San Diego 3 3 3-1 3-1 1-3 26-9 2-0 32-10 1-1 20-8
San Francisco 13 3 2-3 3-2 4-1 21-29 2-1 26-24 1-1 14-38
Seattle 4 5 3-1 2-2 2-2 20-21 2-0 32-20 0-2 8-22
Tampa Bay 10 2 0-4 2-2 2-2 12-23 1-1 12-27 1-1 12-19
Tennessee+ 14 2 0-5 2-3 3-2 12-27 0-2 15-34 2-1 10-22
Washington 7 3 2-3 2-3 2-2 19-22 1-1 26-25 1-2 15-20
posted by phantom
Oct. 10 2006 3:15pm -
0 likes
Marc Lawrence
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AWESOME ANGLE
OF THE WEEK
Marc's Awesome Angle Of The Week
Wins 67% In PLAYBOOK Last Four Years!
ATS W-L Record
Since 1980:
15-1-1
(94%)
POMPOUS
PIGS PLAY ON any NFL Game 5
or later winless dog of
more than 7 points versus
a non-division opponent
off a SU & ATS loss.
A Weekly Insight Into The Art Of Sports Handicapping
BETCHA DIDN'T KNOW by Marc Lawrence
NO WAY, JOSE...
PLAY ON:
TENNESSEE TITANS
posted by phantom
Oct. 10 2006 3:16pm -
0 likes
LAWRENCE:
WASHINGTON over Tennessee by 7
While it seems impossible to recommend Tennessee under any
circumstances, we're not sure we want the Redskins who are
coming off an emotional overtime win against Jacksonville
followed by last week's blood battle with the Giants. With mighty
Indianapolis up next, who could blame the Tribe for taking it easy
here? Those considerations plus the fact that we rarely lay doubles
in the NFL, will keep us on the Titans' sidelines in this one.
3 BEST BET
With Chris Henry out and defensive injuries mounting,
Cincinnati is not as formidable as it was at the beginning of
the season. It would seem that, injuries aside, Carson Palmer
has a huge edge over rookie Bruce Gradkowski at QB and a
certifi ed edge in the running game. However, the Bengals
have allowed season-high yardage to EVERY OPPONENT
they have faced this season. And, we feel Gradkowski will
not surrender his starting job anytime in the near future.
He's a keeper. With the Bucs dressing up as UGLY PIGS (home
dogs who open the season 0-4) and standing 8-1 ATS as nondivision
home dogs, we'll ride this pig to the pen.
TAMPA BAY over Cincinnati by 6
DALLAS over Houston by 13
The Texans have had two weeks to enjoy their fi rst win of the
season but that elation is in peril here. Houie is a perfect 0-7 ATS
in its last seven tries as a non-conference road dog and 3-9 ATS as
underdogs off an upset win. Dallas is 7-1-2 ATS as favorites against
rested opponents and 6-1 ATS in the fi rst of back-to-back home
games. Don't worry about Dallas having an Eagle hangover. The
Pokes are a perfect 6-0 ATS after playing in Philly. Still, we're not
advocates of laying big numbers in the NFL.
5 BEST BET
The Saints are no longer a gimme win in this league and
it's not because of Reggie Bush. Drew Brees has instilled a
confi dence in the Saint offense that was never there before
and the New Orleans defense is playing its best ball in years.
Still, this will be a test for the Holy Ones. Philadelphia has
dominated the series with fi ve straight covers but that goes
out the window in deference to a huge anticipated letdown
following last week's battle royale with Dallas. It was THE
GAME on Philly's schedule this year and they got what they
wanted – a big win. It doesn't hurt knowing that the Eagles are
0-13 ATS as favorites in games after the Cowboys when playing
off back-to-back victories! Divine intervention, again.
NEW ORLEANS over Philadelphia by 10
4 BEST BET
Bad numbers abound for the Seahawks in this NFC West battle.
Seattle is 1-6 ATS in their last seven games following a bye week
and 2-9 ATS following its fi rst loss of the season in the past 11
years. The series favorite is 1-5 ATS. Seattle has yet to score a TD
on the road this season and they are still the defending Super
Bowl loser. These guys are 12-28-2 ATS when laying points into
a .333 or better foe seeking revenge. The Rams have taken on
a new personality and attitude under new coach Scott Linehan.
We like it and their chances here today.
ST LOUIS over Seattle by 7
Chicago over ARIZONA by 10
Although the Bears have failed to cover six times in a row on
Monday nights, we like their 8-2 ATS mark against NFC West teams
and their 8-0 SU record (5-1-2 ATS) in their last eight games against
losing teams. Zona is 7-1 ATS in the second of back-to-back home
games to counter the Chicago numbers. Rookie QB Matt Leinart
will defi nitely be facing the best defense he's ever seen so, unless
you think Zona can win the game, you probably should stay away
from the Cards (0-8-1 ATS last nine home losses).
Carolina over BALTIMORE by 6
Finally, after three straight weeks of laying signifi cant lumber, the
Panthers return to their best role – the underdog. Carolina is 19-4
ATS in their last 23 tries as the short with an amazing 15 SU wins in
those 23 games. Baltimore, though, is 7-0 ATS as non-conference
chalk and has covered fi ve of its last six October home games. The
difference here, though, is the Panthers have a lot of ground to
make up and a defense to get it done.
Miami over NY JETS by 3
The Jets have had Miami's number for so long it seems automatic to
post them on our ticket when the Dolphins are in town. New York
is a dominating 13-2-1 ATS in the last 16 meetings and certainly
has played better than the fl oundering Sea Mammals. Miami
revenge has meant little or nothing in this series and not much
more anywhere in the division. After last week's game against New
England, Miami stands 1-8-1 ATS in this role. While the trends point
to the Flyboys, we'll order up some Dolphin as it not's often you
fi nd a dog with over 100 yards the better defense in this league.
San Diego over SAN FRANCISCO by 6
The Chargers have the numbers in this one. San Diego is 9-2 ATS
in its last 11 on the non-conference road, 6-0 ATS in the fi rst of
BB road games and 7-3 ATS as road chalk of three or more points.
Although the Forty-Niners have covered fi ve of the last seven in
the series, the last cover was six years ago and, as we all know, San
Francisco's fortunes have slipped a little since then. The problem is
we won't lay a price with a team away from home on the heels of
a win over the defending Super Bowl champs. Can't do it.
PITTSBURGH over Kansas City by 13
After opening the campaign 1-3, the Steelers need this game like
blood. The last time a defending Super Bowl champ started 1-3
('99 Broncos), they ended the year 6-10. Not a good omen for
Pittsburgh. Cowher's crew is 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 games with
the Chiefs and the last eight meetings were in Kansas City. The last
one, a 41-20 thumping by the Tribe, is still etched in the minds of
the Pittsburgh players. Two stats involving scheduling dynamics
make the case here. The Steelers are 6-1 ATS at home before backto-
back road games and KC is 0-6 ATS as road dogs with a home
game next. Steel lost their last game at home. Not this.
DENVER over Oakland by 14
No reason to recommend Oakland who is a perfect 0-6 ATS in
its last six division revenge games, but not sure we want Denver
coming off that brutal war with Baltimore. Yes, the Broncos are
12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 division home games and have covered
fi ve of the last six in this series, but they are also 2-7-1 ATS as
double-digit chalk. In our database, which goes back to 1980,
this series has had DD favorites just three times (high line -13.5).
Just too many points.
ATLANTA over NY Giants by 3
The Atlanta running game continues to be unconscious. The
Falcons are averaging 234 ground yards a game, an ominous
number for the Giants. The G-Men are a paltry 6-26 ATS when
allowing 150 rushing yards in their last 32 chances, including just
2-14 ATS on the road. So why aren't we "rushing" to Atlanta here?
Because the Falcons are a perfect 0-9 ATS in their last nine home
games off a SU home win. That's why.
DETROIT over Buffalo by 6
Mike Martz has the Lion offense playing much better than it has in
the last half-decade. Now, if defensive whiz Rod Marinelli can shore
up the stop unit and quit giving up games in the fi nal stanza, Detroit
has a chance to win some games. Buffalo is 7-3-1 ATS in the 2nd of
BB road games and has looked better so far this season. Looks can
be deceiving, though, as evidenced by a full yard advantage for the
Lions in net yards per rush. We like home dogs with that kind of
edge. If they do puppy, up we'll walk with this UGLY PIG.
3* HAWAII
4* FLORIDA
5* UCLA
3* BUCCANEERS
4* RAMS
5* SAINTS
3* 49ers UNDER
4* Rams OVER
5* Falcons UNDER
posted by phantom
Oct. 10 2006 3:17pm -
0 likes
Kevin o.neill & friends (the Max)
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NFL
Sunday, October 15th, 2006
Buccing the Trend
@Bucs (+6½) over Bengals
Bucs gave a pretty good accounting of themselves in
New Orleans, as they did the previous game at
home against Carolina, with a bye week in between.
New QB Bruce Gradkowski looked very good for a
rookie on Sunday, though he didn’t protect the ball
well when he fumbled and set up a short TD drive
for the Saints. The Bucs won yardage 406-314 and
looked good on both sides of the ball. The Tampa
Bay rushing game picked up for 187 yards on 5.7
per carry, and Cadillac Williams looked like the
Cadillac Williams of early last year. Not pulling off
the outright victory actually puts Tampa Bay in a
pretty good spot here, as winless home dogs are a
good long-term proposition. Had they won in New
Orleans there might be a tendency to let down and
have a certain amount of satisfaction from that
victory. But this is a team still desperate for a win,
and they’ll pull out all the stops on their home field
to get that win.
The Bengals were embarrassingly eviscerated at the
hands of New England before their bye week last
week. The culprit was a defense that has a hard
time tackling. Cincinnati has allowed three of their
four opponents to generate their highest total
offense output of the season against them. They
reside in the lower quadrant of just about every
meaningful defensive statistical category. Losing
David Pollack hurt, and on the other side of the ball
WR Chris Henry is suspended. Bucs defense appears
to be in decline but their poor numbers are largely
the result of Mike Vick’s Atlanta running attack
steamrolling them on a bad day in Atlanta last
month. Playing in desperation we’ll look for the
Bucs to be decent in all phases of the game against
a Bengals team whose defensive inadequacies make
laying this many points on the road a dicey
proposition. Bengals by only 1.
Post Super Bowl Fade Plus
@Rams (+3½, -120) over Seahawks
There are a lot of reasons to expect a mediocre
performance by Seahawks when they take the road,
as Super Bowl losers from the year before have
been a play against overall, but the most profitable
subset is to fade them as road favorites. Despite a
3-1 record, the Seahawks have some problems. By
all accounts they miss Steve Hutchison at offensive
guard, and they haven’t been healthy on the line.
That’s as much of an issue as Sean Alexander likely
being out for another few weeks in seeing their
rushing production careen from 4.7 yards per carry
last year to 3.3 per attempt thus far this season.
The secondary is no great shakes either, though the
passing game should improve with Deion Branch
becoming more comfortable in the offense and
Jeramy Stevens expected back from injury. Overall
we’re not bullish on the Seahawks, especially as a
road favorite.
And this home dog has been impressive thus far.
The Rams are finding ways to win under new coach
Linehan, and part of finding ways to win is not
having Mike Martz around to make strange clockmanagement
and strategic decisions. They are 4-1
now and there’s a positive vibe in St. Louis. While
you might look for an overachieving team to
potentially let down just a tad, having your divisional
rival in town who went to the Super Bowl last year
cures that. Take the points as the Rams are in this
game to the wire. Rams by 3.
Panthers Uncaged
Panthers (+3, -120) over @Ravens
No matter the results of the Monday night game, the
Ravens still lead their division, while the Panthers
trail both the Saints and the Falcons in this division.
John Fox’s club simply needs this game more. The
Panthers enjoyed a solid win over the Browns
Sunday. They ran the ball well (Foster over 100
yards) and defensively Julius Peppers was all over
the field while LB Thomas Davis was equally
disruptive, with 11 tackles. The Panthers have
bounced back well from their 0-2 start.
Steve McNair has made a couple of big plays late in
games but entering Monday Night Football he has a
quarterback rating of 72.4 and the running game is
averaging only 96 yards per game. And now they
face a premier defense. Without substantial
improvement it is tough to see how the Ravens are
going to stretch out to much of a win. Two very
good defenses but we trust the Panthers offense
more. Neither one of these coaches is going to
involve themselves in a shootout. Points worth
taking in this slugfest. Panthers by 3.
Dave Fobare’s NFL Tech Play of the Week
Oakland (+15½) over @Denver
Yes, the Raiders are 0-4 both straight up and
against the spread. The defense is atrocious and is
giving up nearly 30 points per game. But like the
overlooked 0-5 Tennessee Titans in their near upset
(lost 14-13) as 17 point dogs over Indianapolis last
week, the best time to play big dogs is when the
favorite perceives they are not legitimate threats to
win the game.
Starting in Game 5, winless NFL dogs of 6 or more
points are 70-44 ATS. While it may seem still early in
the season, at this point in the season fatigue does
become a factor. Generally, teams that come off a
game versus a weak opponent are a bit fresher than
teams that come off a game versus a strong
opponent. Denver is off a Monday night game
against a Ravens squad that was 4-0, while the
Raiders come off a loss to a losing San Francisco.
That dichotomy triggers a 280-190 ATS "fatigue"
system that is already 67% ATS this season.
The Raiders actually had a shot at beating San
Francisco last week; they led at the half by a 13-7
count. NFL teams that blow a chance to end a 2+
game losing streak by fumbling a first half lead are
strong candidates to bounce back the next week as
highlight by a 119-68 ATS system that favors
Oakland.
As mentioned earlier, the most important reason to
play a big dog is if you have good reason to believe
the favorite will take them lightly. At 0-4 the Raiders
have already found a good home in the basement of
the AFC West by a full two games behind Kansas
City. They certainly don't pose a threat to Denver in
the divisional race at this point, nor are they likely
to. NFL teams that find themselves in the divisional
cellar by multiple games can be very dangerous
spread propositions when receiving enough points,
as highlighted by a 120-61 ATS system on Oakland.
One might expect that such a system show a
greater win rate as the spread climbs, since the
bigger the dog, the less threat they pose to the
favorite, right? And indeed they do, as double digit
dogs from this system are 48-20, and dogs of 13+
points are 27-10. Take Oakland and their powerful
rushing attack to sneak in under this generous
number against a Denver team likely to be down a
bit off their MNF affair.
posted by phantom
Oct. 11 2006 5:31pm -
0 likes
Kevin o.neill & friends (the Max)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Systems & Strategies
Note: Frequently the systems that have come in have some contrast with our Max selections. The systems
are created independently of our selections and this will occur from time to time.
In my mind systems are more valuable than trends. A system can be true for the entirety of either college
or pro football. Trends focus on single teams. Take systems with a grain of salt, but they can prove to be
valuable tools in a handicapper’s arsenal. Sometimes they last for a while. Sometimes they turn around.
Always ask yourself, “does this make sense?â€
posted by phantom
Oct. 11 2006 5:31pm -
0 likes
Pointwise Rating 1-5 (1 top play and down from there)
College
Wisconsin 1
Vanderbilt 1
Oregon 2
Florida 3
California 3
San Jose ST 4
Florida St 5
Texas 5
Pros
Wash 2
Dallas 3
Cinn 4
Jets 4
KC 5
posted by phantom
Oct. 11 2006 5:34pm -
0 likes
WASHINGTON over Tennessee by 7
While it seems impossible to recommend Tennessee under any
circumstances, we're not sure we want the Redskins who are
coming off an emotional overtime win against Jacksonville
followed by last week's blood battle with the Giants. With mighty
Indianapolis up next, who could blame the Tribe for taking it easy
here? Those considerations plus the fact that we rarely lay doubles
in the NFL, will keep us on the Titans' sidelines in this one.
3 BEST BET
With Chris Henry out and defensive injuries mounting,
Cincinnati is not as formidable as it was at the beginning of
the season. It would seem that, injuries aside, Carson Palmer
has a huge edge over rookie Bruce Gradkowski at QB and a
certifi ed edge in the running game. However, the Bengals
have allowed season-high yardage to EVERY OPPONENT
they have faced this season. And, we feel Gradkowski will
not surrender his starting job anytime in the near future.
He's a keeper. With the Bucs dressing up as UGLY PIGS (home
dogs who open the season 0-4) and standing 8-1 ATS as nondivision
home dogs, we'll ride this pig to the pen.
TAMPA BAY over Cincinnati by 6
DALLAS over Houston by 13
The Texans have had two weeks to enjoy their fi rst win of the
season but that elation is in peril here. Houie is a perfect 0-7 ATS
in its last seven tries as a non-conference road dog and 3-9 ATS as
underdogs off an upset win. Dallas is 7-1-2 ATS as favorites against
rested opponents and 6-1 ATS in the fi rst of back-to-back home
games. Don't worry about Dallas having an Eagle hangover. The
Pokes are a perfect 6-0 ATS after playing in Philly. Still, we're not
advocates of laying big numbers in the NFL.
5 BEST BET
The Saints are no longer a gimme win in this league and
it's not because of Reggie Bush. Drew Brees has instilled a
confi dence in the Saint offense that was never there before
and the New Orleans defense is playing its best ball in years.
Still, this will be a test for the Holy Ones. Philadelphia has
dominated the series with fi ve straight covers but that goes
out the window in deference to a huge anticipated letdown
following last week's battle royale with Dallas. It was THE
GAME on Philly's schedule this year and they got what they
wanted – a big win. It doesn't hurt knowing that the Eagles are
0-13 ATS as favorites in games after the Cowboys when playing
off back-to-back victories! Divine intervention, again.
NEW ORLEANS over Philadelphia by 10
4 BEST BET
Bad numbers abound for the Seahawks in this NFC West battle.
Seattle is 1-6 ATS in their last seven games following a bye week
and 2-9 ATS following its fi rst loss of the season in the past 11
years. The series favorite is 1-5 ATS. Seattle has yet to score a TD
on the road this season and they are still the defending Super
Bowl loser. These guys are 12-28-2 ATS when laying points into
a .333 or better foe seeking revenge. The Rams have taken on
a new personality and attitude under new coach Scott Linehan.
We like it and their chances here today.
ST LOUIS over Seattle by 7
Chicago over ARIZONA by 10
Although the Bears have failed to cover six times in a row on
Monday nights, we like their 8-2 ATS mark against NFC West teams
and their 8-0 SU record (5-1-2 ATS) in their last eight games against
losing teams. Zona is 7-1 ATS in the second of back-to-back home
games to counter the Chicago numbers. Rookie QB Matt Leinart
will defi nitely be facing the best defense he's ever seen so, unless
you think Zona can win the game, you probably should stay away
from the Cards (0-8-1 ATS last nine home losses).
Carolina over BALTIMORE by 6
Finally, after three straight weeks of laying signifi cant lumber, the
Panthers return to their best role – the underdog. Carolina is 19-4
ATS in their last 23 tries as the short with an amazing 15 SU wins in
those 23 games. Baltimore, though, is 7-0 ATS as non-conference
chalk and has covered fi ve of its last six October home games. The
difference here, though, is the Panthers have a lot of ground to
make up and a defense to get it done.
Miami over NY JETS by 3
The Jets have had Miami's number for so long it seems automatic to
post them on our ticket when the Dolphins are in town. New York
is a dominating 13-2-1 ATS in the last 16 meetings and certainly
has played better than the fl oundering Sea Mammals. Miami
revenge has meant little or nothing in this series and not much
more anywhere in the division. After last week's game against New
England, Miami stands 1-8-1 ATS in this role. While the trends point
to the Flyboys, we'll order up some Dolphin as it not's often you
fi nd a dog with over 100 yards the better defense in this league.
San Diego over SAN FRANCISCO by 6
The Chargers have the numbers in this one. San Diego is 9-2 ATS
in its last 11 on the non-conference road, 6-0 ATS in the fi rst of
BB road games and 7-3 ATS as road chalk of three or more points.
Although the Forty-Niners have covered fi ve of the last seven in
the series, the last cover was six years ago and, as we all know, San
Francisco's fortunes have slipped a little since then. The problem is
we won't lay a price with a team away from home on the heels of
a win over the defending Super Bowl champs. Can't do it.
PITTSBURGH over Kansas City by 13
After opening the campaign 1-3, the Steelers need this game like
blood. The last time a defending Super Bowl champ started 1-3
('99 Broncos), they ended the year 6-10. Not a good omen for
Pittsburgh. Cowher's crew is 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 games with
the Chiefs and the last eight meetings were in Kansas City. The last
one, a 41-20 thumping by the Tribe, is still etched in the minds of
the Pittsburgh players. Two stats involving scheduling dynamics
make the case here. The Steelers are 6-1 ATS at home before backto-
back road games and KC is 0-6 ATS as road dogs with a home
game next. Steel lost their last game at home. Not this.
DENVER over Oakland by 14
No reason to recommend Oakland who is a perfect 0-6 ATS in
its last six division revenge games, but not sure we want Denver
coming off that brutal war with Baltimore. Yes, the Broncos are
12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 division home games and have covered
fi ve of the last six in this series, but they are also 2-7-1 ATS as
double-digit chalk. In our database, which goes back to 1980,
this series has had DD favorites just three times (high line -13.5).
Just too many points.
ATLANTA over NY Giants by 3
The Atlanta running game continues to be unconscious. The
Falcons are averaging 234 ground yards a game, an ominous
number for the Giants. The G-Men are a paltry 6-26 ATS when
allowing 150 rushing yards in their last 32 chances, including just
2-14 ATS on the road. So why aren't we "rushing" to Atlanta here?
Because the Falcons are a perfect 0-9 ATS in their last nine home
games off a SU home win. That's why.
DETROIT over Buffalo by 6
Mike Martz has the Lion offense playing much better than it has in
the last half-decade. Now, if defensive whiz Rod Marinelli can shore
up the stop unit and quit giving up games in the fi nal stanza, Detroit
has a chance to win some games. Buffalo is 7-3-1 ATS in the 2nd of
BB road games and has looked better so far this season. Looks can
be deceiving, though, as evidenced by a full yard advantage for the
Lions in net yards per rush. We like home dogs with that kind of
edge. If they do puppy, up we'll walk with this UGLY PIG.
3* HAWAII
4* FLORIDA
5* UCLA
3* BUCCANEERS
4* RAMS
5* SAINTS
3* 49ers UNDER
4* Rams OVER
5* Falcons UNDER
__________________
posted by phantom
Oct. 11 2006 5:39pm -
0 likes
Sports Betting Solutions..college foots for the next few days
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Virginia Tec @ Boston Colleg Analysis
Run Line Bet: Boston Colleg(h)
Boston College +2.5 $660/$600
Play On - A home team vs. the money line (BOSTON COLLEGE) - after allowing 17 points or less in 2 straight games against opponent after allowing 37 points or more last game.
(29-3 over the last 5 seasons.) (90.6%, +29.6 units. Rating = 6*)
The average money line posted in these games was: Team underdog with a money line of: +112.6
The average score in these games was: Team 35.2, Opponent 17.2 (Average point differential = +18)
The situation's record this season is: (1-0, +1 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (15-1, +10.4 units).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (54-12, +20.2 units).
Since 1992 the situation's record is: (83-23, -1.4 units).
Toled @ Ken Analysis
Run Line Bet: Ken(h)
Kent St -7 $660/$600
Play On - A home team vs. the money line (KENT ST) - after allowing 17 points or less in 2 straight games against opponent after allowing 37 points or more last game.
(29-3 over the last 5 seasons.) (90.6%, +29.6 units. Rating = 6*)
The average money line posted in these games was: Team underdog with a money line of: +112.6
The average score in these games was: Team 35.2, Opponent 17.2 (Average point differential = +18)
The situation's record this season is: (1-0, +1 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (15-1, +10.4 units).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (54-12, +20.2 units).
Since 1992 the situation's record is: (83-23, -1.4 units).
E Michiga @ Bowling Gree Analysis
Run Line Bet: Bowling Gree(h)
Bowling Green -10.5 $220/$200
Play On - A home team vs. the money line (BOWLING GREEN) - average team (+/- 0.6 YPP) against a terrible team (outgained by 1.2+ YPP), in conference games.
(43-4 over the last 5 seasons.) (91.5%, +32.7 units. Rating = 2*)
The average money line posted in these games was: Team favored with a money line of: -257.5
The average score in these games was: Team 34.4, Opponent 16.5 (Average point differential = +17.9)
The situation's record this season is: (2-2, -6.3 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (25-3, +14.7 units).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (93-14, +12 units).
Since 1992 the situation's record is: (128-23, +13.3 units).
Houston @ S Mississipp Analysis
Run Line Bet: S Mississipp(h)
Southern Mississippi -2 $440/$400
Play Against - Road underdogs vs. the money line (HOUSTON) - poor rushing team (100-140 RY/game) against a team with a good rushing defense (100-140 RY/game), after gaining 2 or less rushing yards/attempt last game.
(32-3 over the last 10 seasons.) (91.4%, +27.2 units. Rating = 4*)
The average money line posted in these games was: Team favored with a money line of: -160
The average score in these games was: Team 34.6, Opponent 15.2 (Average point differential = +19.4)
The situation's record this season is: (2-0, +2 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (11-3, +6.2 units).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (21-3, +16.2 units).
Since 1992 the situation's record is: (45-6, +31.4 units).
Tulan @ UTE Analysis
Run Line Bet: UTE(h)
Utep -13 $440/$400
Play On - A home team vs. the money line (UTEP) - a good offensive team (28-34 PPG) against a horrible defensive team (>=34 PPG).
(44-3 over the last 10 seasons.) (93.6%, +37 units. Rating = 4*)
The average money line posted in these games was: Team favored with a money line of: -235
The average score in these games was: Team 40.5, Opponent 16.6 (Average point differential = +23.9)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0, +0 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (13-1, +9.3 units).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (22-2, +16.8 units).
Since 1992 the situation's record is: (54-6, +36.2 units).
Purdu @ Northwester Analysis
Purdue -7 $330/$300
Play On - Road favorites vs. the money line (PURDUE) - off a blowout loss by 21 points or more to a conference rival, a good team (60% to 80%) playing a team with a losing record.
(28-2 since 1992.) (93.3%, +24.5 units. Rating = 3*)
The average money line posted in these games was: Team favored with a money line of: -175
The average score in these games was: Team 33, Opponent 18 (Average point differential = +15)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0, +0 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (2-0, +2 units).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (8-0, +8 units).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (18-0, +18 units).
Minnesota @ Wisconsi Analysis
Run Line Bet: Wisconsi(h)
Wisconsin -8.5
Play On - Home favorites vs. the money line (WISCONSIN) - with an excellent defense - allowing 4.5 or less yards/play, after outgaining opp by 225 or more total yards in their previous game.
(67-6 over the last 10 seasons.) (91.8%, +52.8 units. Rating = 5*)
The average money line posted in these games was: Team favored with a money line of: -235.8
The average score in these games was: Team 36, Opponent 14.8 (Average point differential = +21.2)
The situation's record this season is: (4-0, +4 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (16-1, +13.6 units).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (38-3, +31.1 units).
Since 1992 the situation's record is: (91-11, +45.8 units).
posted by phantom
Oct. 11 2006 5:42pm -
0 likes
Sports Betting Solutions NFL
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Houston Texans @ Dallas Cowboys Analysis
Run Line Bet: Dallas Cowboys(h)
Dallas -13 $440/$400
Play Against - Road underdogs vs. the money line (HOUSTON) - poor offensive team - scoring 17 or less points/game, after a win by 6 or less points.
(25-2 since 1983.) (92.6%, +22.2 units. Rating = 4*)
The average money line posted in these games was: Team favored with a money line of: -137.5
The average score in these games was: Team 37.5, Opponent 15.4 (Average point differential = +22.1)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0, +0 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (6-1, +4.2 units).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (9-1, +7.2 units).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (18-1, +16.2 units).
New York Giants @ Atlanta Falcons Analysis
Run Line Bet: Atlanta Falcons(h)
Atlanta -3 $330/$300
Play On - Home favorites vs. the money line (ATLANTA) - excellent rushing team - averaging 150 or more rushing yards/game, after gaining 175 or more rushing yards last game.
(46-6 over the last 10 seasons.) (88.5%, +33.4 units. Rating = 3*)
The average money line posted in these games was: Team favored with a money line of: -210
The average score in these games was: Team 28.1, Opponent 15.9 (Average point differential = +12.2)
The situation's record this season is: (1-0, +1 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (10-3, +4 units).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (25-4, +17.2 units).
Since 1983 the situation's record is: (97-32, +15.2 units).
Miami Dolphins @ New York Jets Analysis
Run Line Bet: New York Jets(h)
Jets -3 $330/$300
Play On - Home teams vs. the money line (NY JETS) - good passing team (6.7-7.3 PYA) against a poor passing team (5.3-5.9 PYA), after gaining 5.5 or less passing yards/attempt in last game.
(23-3 since 1983.) (88.5%, +19.4 units. Rating = 3*)
The average money line posted in these games was: Team favored with a money line of: -121.7
The average score in these games was: Team 23.9, Opponent 14.2 (Average point differential = +9.7)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0, +0 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (2-0, +2 units).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (4-0, +4 units).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (11-1, +10.1 units
posted by phantom
Oct. 11 2006 5:43pm -
0 likes
Confidential Kick-Off!! The Gold Sheet!!
11 *GEORGIA over Vanderbilt
Late Score Forecast:
*GEORGIA 30 - Vanderbilt 3
With all due respect to the improvements coach Bobby Johnson has made at
Vandy, Commodores have still been outclassed by the Bulldogs, who have won
last 11 in the series, including the last 5 by 16 points or more, including
all four in the Jay Cutler era. After last week's 51-33 shocking loss vs.
Tennessee, UGa now fighting for its SEC East life, which it still has, by the
way, since Florida beat Tennessee, and 5-1 Georgia still plays Florida.
Bulldogs likely to own the rush edge once again in series, and coach Richt
was forced to open the playbook for "caretaker" sr. QB Tereshinski in last
week's loss. Embarrassed UGa defense (7 ppg prior to Tenn.) sure to be
re-focused vs. Commodores' young QBs. And with Georgia PK Coutu (leg)
through for the season, OL & RBs know Dawgs can't be coming up short once in
red zone.
10 *RICE over Uab
Late Score Forecast:
*RICE 31 - Uab 26
Rice is playing a true home game for the first time since its Sept. 2 opener
(Texas game in Reliant Stadium had a Longhorn crowd). This will be an
important game on their schedule since it's Owls only home game until Nov.
18. Rice has gotten a huge boost offensively with the return of QB Chase
Clement from injury. Clement has thrown for 570 yards and 7 scores in two
games since coming back from a hand injury suffered in the opener. Clement's
return has allowed jr. Joel Armstrong, who was subbing at QB in Clement's
absence, to return to wideout where he's caught 11 passes the last two games.
Jarett Dillard has caught 4 of Clement's scoring passes, and has 232
receiving yards in the last two games. UAB has had some significant
attrition this season, and will probably be without six starters or key
backups this week.
10 FLORIDA over *Auburn
Late Score Forecast:
FLORIDA 23 - *Auburn 14
Respected SEC scouts report Auburn's deeply-concerned HC Tuberville plans on
making some defensive changes this week after painfully watching his vaunted
Tiger stop unit uncharacteristically allow Arkansas RBs to rumble for a
whopping 279 yds. in stunning 27-10 home upset. Unfortunately, the shaken
Auburn defense will encounter a different set of problems vs. diversified
Florida attack, led by QB duo of sr. Leak (65%, 14 TDs, 5 ints.) & hotshot
frosh Tebow. Meanwhile, Tigers run-oriented attack finds heavy resistance
from a rock-ribbed Gator front 7 (mere 57 ypg, 2.3 yp), which will place
extra pressure on QB Cox (only 5 TDP) & a mediocre WR corps. And now that
Meyer's squad is risen to No. 2 in AP, chances are good it will play for the
national title if it runs the table. UF has covered 6 straight as a road
dog!
10 TULANE over *Utep
Late Score Forecast:
TULANE 33 - *Utep 32
Tulane has rebounded from last year's impossible campaign (11 games in 11
straight weeks at 11 different venues), already equaling the 2 SU wins it was
able to muster in 2005. Rifle-armed sr. QB Lester Ricard is redeeming his
once promising pro future. Excluding trip to SEC powerhouse LSU, Ricard has
thrown for 1036 yards & 10 TDs in the last 3 games! Count on that hot hand
continuing this week at UTEP, especially now that jr. RB Matt Forte (348 YR
in wins over Rice and at Miss. State) giving Green Wave a formidable ground
presence. Mistake-prone Miner sr. QB Jordan Palmer (46 ints. last 2+
seasons!) likely to provide Ricard & Forte some short-field scoring
opportunities against a vulnerable UTEP defense that misses leadership of
injured sr. LB Jeremy Jones (team-leading 130 tackles LY). Host has covered
just 4 of last 14 as favorite. Take points.
10 CHICAGO over *ARIZONA
Late Score Forecast:
CHICAGO 31 - *Arizona 10
(Monday, October 16)
Have much respect for the way Matt Leinart handled the Arizona offense last
week, generating two quick TDP vs. Kansas City. But when the Chiefs realized
the game was in great jeopardy for them, they turned up the heat and got a
key pickoff in the second half to set up a score. And K.C. won the game with
Trent Green injured, Willie Roaf retired, and Larry Anderson on the sidelines
at the end with a neck injury. Situation is not the same with the Bears,
whose offense is healthy, balanced, eager, and boasts its most firepower in
years, and whose defense seems determined to play "on the other side of the
ball" all day, intimidate, and force turnovers. That's a good combination
vs. a Cardinal OL lacking quickness and a rookie QB. Leinart will "have his
days" in the NFL, but not in this one.
TOTALS: Cincinnati-Tampa Bay OVER (42)-High-scoring Bengals "over" 9-2-1 last
12; rookie Gradkowski invigorated Bucs' aerial weapons last week.
Seattle-St. Louis UNDER (45)-HC Scott Linehan has kept his promise, improving
Ram defense, cutting turnovers, and featuring RB Steven Jackson.
HONORABLE MENTION (Nine-Rated Games): WYOMING (+4) vs. Utah-Now that Wyo has
found its QB (RS frosh Sween), Cowboys' improved RBs & defense should begin
paying dividends. SMU (-6) vs. Marshall-Even if starting QB Willis still
suspended for Mustangs, juco backup Slater can handle the offense, which is
now deep at RB. KANSAS (-4) vs. Oklahoma State-KU (11-4 vs. spread at home)
is just a couple of plays away from back-to-back upsets at Nebraska & vs. A&M
last two weeks, and now Jayhawks stepping down in class. LOUISIANA-MONROE
(+9) at Troy-Well-coached Monroe, which previously played at Kansas &
Alabama, happy to be back in Sun Belt, where it's allowing 15.5 ppg.
CAROLINA (+2; estimated) at Baltimore-Panthers (17-3 as dog since start of
2003) are 3-0 SU since return of Steve Smith; exercise due caution if
Carolina is favored.
posted by phantom
Oct. 11 2006 6:00pm -
0 likes
Marc Lawrence
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AWESOME ANGLE OF THE WEEK
Marc's Awesome Angle Of The Week
Wins 67% In PLAYBOOK Last Four Years!
ATS W-L Record
Since 1980:
15-1-1
(94%)
PLAY ON any NFL Game 5
or later winless dog of
more than 7 points versus
a non-division opponent
off a SU & ATS loss.
PLAY ON:
TENNESSEE TITANS
As we continue to extol the virtues of playing with rest
during the college football season, let’s expand our look
into GAME SIX. It seems teams taking on a conference
opponent fare rather well with a breather as evidenced by
an overall 121-98-1 ATS in all games since 1980.
Bring them in off a SU loss and they improve to 69-47 ATS.
We fi nd four teams in that role this week – Arizona State,
Eastern Michigan, Troy and Virginia Tech.
A rather nice tightener comes about when we bring the
opponent in off a win, as GAME SIX rested teams playing
off a SU loss are 39-19 ATS when taking on a foe off a SU
win. Arizona State, Troy and Virginia Tech answer the bell
this week.
The best of all roles occurs when our GAME SIX rested team
is off back-to-back losses and taking on an opponent off a
win as these teams are 18-5 ATS. We fi nd two teams in that
role this week – Arizona State and Troy.
TEAMS KEY FACTS, STATS & ATS TRENDS
The Spartans of Michigan State
are just 1-29 ATS in their last 30 SU losses
when playing off a SU loss.
3* HAWAII
4* FLORIDA
5* UCLA
3* BUCCANEERS
4* RAMS
5* SAINTS
3* 49ers UNDER
4* Rams OVER
5* Falcons UNDER
posted by phantom
Oct. 11 2006 6:00pm -
0 likes
power plays from phil steele
4*'s wf. c.mich. utah smu georgia flor.st. oreg. kent st. okla. usc
4*'s pro's-tampa bay wash. dall. chargers
posted by phantom
Oct. 12 2006 2:52pm -
0 likes
Power Sweep Totals
3* Giants/Falcons over 43.5
3* Dolphins/Jets under 37
3* Eagles/Saints over 44
2* Seajhawks/Rams under 45.5
2* Panthers/Ravens over 33
posted by phantom
Oct. 12 2006 2:53pm -
0 likes
Red Sheet
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
OCTOBER 14, 2006 VOLUME 38, NUMBER 7
NORTH CAROLINA STATE 23 - Wake Forest 10 - (12:00 EDT) -- Line opened at NCSt minus 6½, and is
now minus 4. Love line movement in this one, which is due to respect for Wake's quick
start, along with the 'Pack's inability to bring home the bacon in the role of chalk. But make
no mistake the Deacons have a huge mountain to climb, after falling apart down last week's
stretch, when they had Clemson on the ropes, leading 17-3, before botched FG opened the
floodgates for eventual 27-17 loss. Though we respect Wake's 5-1 SU log, remember they
did it vs lined squads with a combined 6-15 record, plus Liberty. And they lost their top QB
& RB, right out of the gate. NCSt, on the other hand, has finally shaken the doldrums, with
upsets of BC & FlaSt (then #20 & #17). And this is host series.
RATING: NORTH CAROLINA STATE 89
SAN JOSE STATE 40 - Utah State 10 - (6:00) -- Line opened at San Jose St minus 14½, and is now minus
14. A couple of weeks back, we could have easily gone 7-1 on our rated college plays on
our earlier week publication (Pointwise). The one bad choice was San Diego St, in its game
with these improving Spartans, a 31-10 setback. Three straight wins for San Jose, with a
suddenly improved "D", which has held its last 2 foes to 8½ ppg. And that stat should hold
vs the Ags, who field the worst scoring offense in the nation: a scoring deficit of 198-41 thus
far, which includes a combined 96-7 pt shortage away from Logan. A week ago, they shocked
Fresno, 13-12, as a 26-pt dog, but still managed only 11 FDs. Note 3-game SJSt winning
skein, & QB Trafalis owning nation best 77% completion rate.
RATING: SAN JOSE STATE 89
WISCONSIN 38 - Minnesota 14 - (12:00) -- Line opened at Wisconsin minus 10½, and is now minus 9½.
When this season began, little was expected from the Badgers, who not only had said
goodbye to their most storied head coach, Barry Alvarez, but returned only 3 offensive
starters, & wound up the '05 season with weekly lacking defensive efforts. Certainly not the
rule for the normally stingy Wisky stop units. But things have come together nicely, with a
5-1 start, & yet to taste defeat vs the linemakers. In their 2 lined home games, they have a
combined 55-9 pt edge. Senior QB Stocco has been steady, with RB Hill just the latest
Badger toter (847 yds, 9 TDs). Minny coming off draining losses to Mich & PennSt.
RATING: WISCONSIN 88
Army 24 - CONNECTICUT 20 - (12:00) -- Line opened at Connecticut minus 7½, and is now minus 5½.
Things have certainly taken a wrong turn for the Huskies. As we noted, their 52-pt outburst
in their opener meant nothing, coming against Rhode Island. Since then, they've managed
a paltry 13, 14, 17, & 16 pts, in losing 3 of those 4, not only on the field, but also vs the pts.
As a matter of fact they've been manhandled, overland, the past 2 weeks, with a combined
442 RY deficit. And try 43 pts behind the spread in those 2. Just take the dog. That's the
mantra in Cadet games, thus far: 5-0 ATS, by an average of 20.5 pts. And they've covered
their 2 RGs to date by 23½ & 19 pts. And UConn has WVa up next.
RATING: ARMY 88
RICE 27 - Uab 24 - (7:30) -- Line opened at Uab minus 3½, and is now minus 5½. Quick jump in spread suits
us just fine. The Owls have always been one of the best host dog plays in the land, & are
currently on a 15-2 ATS run in that role, in conference play. They somehow made it through
their baptism of fire, opening with the likes of Houston, UCLA, Texas, & Florida St. Now in
their own realm, where they've averaged 36 pts in their last 2 outings, with QB Clement
throwing for 581 yds & 7 TDs. By the way, the dog covered both, by a combined 60½ pts!
The Blazers are in off a 200 RY edge (Memphis), but note forcing just a single punt. First
true HG for Owls since 9/2. First RG for Blazers since 9/16. Pup yaps again.
RATING: RICE 88
WASHINGTON 34 - Tennessee 12 - (1:00) -- Line opened at Washington minus 9½, and is now minus 9½.
A week ago on Pointwise, we noted that the Giants' backs were already to the wall. They
responded with a thorough thumping of these 'Skins (20-10 FD edge & 411-164 yd advantage).
Well, the same can now be said of Washington, which can't afford another early
season slip. In the Titans, they have the perfect opponent. Tennessee is in off a bruising 1-
pt loss at Indianapolis, just like it was a couple of weeks back, when it had to take on the
Cowboys, off a late 3-pt loss to the Dolphins. Result? A 45-14 home loss. With the chalk
covering 13-of-17 in 'Skin games of late, this looks like more of the same.
RATING: WASHINGTON 89
NEAR CHOICES (Rated 87): Vanderbilt, Ohio St, Illinois, USC, Florida - NFL: Philly, Dallas, Chicago
LINE MOVES (from largest to smallest move): Maryland (Pick to -5); WakeForest (+6½ to +4); Air Force
(-3½ to -5½); NorthCarolina (+4½ to +2½); Army (+7½ to +5½); UCLA (+12½ to +10½); UAB (-3½ to -5½);
Oklahoma (-17½ to -19½); Hawaii (-3½ to -5½); Temple (+45½ to +44); CentralFlorida (+11½ to +10);
Nebraska (-10 to -11½); Auburn (-1 to -2½); WashingtonSt (+9 to +7½); FloridaSt (-21 to -22½); Cincinnati
(+28 to +26½); Washington (-9 to -10½); Arizona (-3 to -4½); Colorado (+9½ to +8); Kentucky (+27½ to +26);
Memphis (-10½ to -12) - NFL: SanDiego (-8½ to -10) - TIME CHANGES: None, as of Tuesday.......
RED SHEET ONLINE
RATINGS: 89 & ABOVE: SUPERIOR PLAY
88 & BELOW: ABOVE AVERAGE PLAY
posted by phantom
Oct. 12 2006 2:53pm -
0 likes
Killer Sports..MTI...this newsletter is excellent every week guys..fyi
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MTi’s Side Play of the Week
5-Star NY Giants +3 over ATLANTAâ€â€The Giants have one of the
best rush defenses in the league, as their opponents have averaged
only 3.04 yards per carry. This is good enough for #1 in the NFC. The
Falcons, of course, feature the rush. Atlanta has rushed the ball on 60%
of their offensive plays this season, tops in the entire league.
It is interesting to speculate how the Falcons’ running game might
do against the Giants rushing defense. However, what matters is not
speculation, but the actual results. Doing the research at KillerSports.
com reveals that the Falcons are 0-13 ATS since week 6 1999 vs any
team that is at least 500 and has allowed less than 3.7 yards per carry
season to date. The complete query output file for this situation is
shown below.
We can see that the Falcons have failed to cover by an average of
a whopping 13.6 ppg in this situation. In their two qualifying games
from last season, the Falcons lost 30-27 to the Buccaneers laying 6
and lost 11-44 to the Panthers getting 4. In fact, the Falcons are only
1-12 straight up in this situation, with their only win vs the Chargers
when they scored 14 points in the fourth quarter to win 21-20 as a
4’ point home favorite.
Now let’s switch gears a bit to look at the history of this match-up.
Since the start of the 2002 season, the Giants have met the Falcons
three times, with the Falcons winning all three by scores of 17-10, 27-
7 and 14-10 respectively. We expect big things from the Giants here
as, they are a perfect 5-0 ATS with triple revenge vs a non-divisional
opponent, covering by an average of 8.0 ppg. The Giants are a perfect
4-0 straight up their last four in this situation. This trend was active
twice last season and the Giants won SU as an underdog; beating the
Rams 26-21 getting 12’ and beating the Packers 14-7 getting 7.
As mentioned previously, the Falcons beat the Giants 14-10 in
NY in their previous meeting. Atlanta is terrible when hosting a
non-divisional opponent that they beat on the road in their previous
match-up. Indeed, the Falcons are a dismal 0-10 ATS when hosting
a non-divisional opponent that is seeking revenge for a home loss,
failing to cover by an average of 10.5 ppg. So it appears that the
Falcon do not have the eye-of-the-tiger and come in very soft versus
a non-divisional opponent that is seeking revenge.
The Giants are off a great game versus the Redskins in which they
rushed for 157 yards and dominated the time-of-possession. In fact, in
this spot last week we forecast that the Giants would hold the Redskins
to three points and that’s exactly what they did.
When the Giants get their running game going, they are tough to
stop. In fact, the Giants are 16-0 ATS on the road on Sunday the week
after a win in which they had at least 140 yards rushing, covering the
spread by a very nice 9.9 points per game.
With the Giants a perfect 9-0 ATS (+11.4 ppg) as a road dog on
artificial turf after a straight up win as a home favorite, we can see any
reason why the New York shouldn’t win straight up here and that’s
what we’re forecasting.
Consider playing the Giants on the moneyline.
MTi’s FORECAST: NY Giants 20 ATLANTA 13
MTi’s Totals Play of the Week
5-Star Miami at NY Jets UNDER 36’â€â€This line should be somewhere
around 33 -- and we think it will head that direction as
the game approaches.
First of all we have the great system on page 6 of this issue which
states, “The league is 0-13 OU since 1989 when they are a home
favorite by a FG or less and they are off a 3+ point loss that dropped
them to one game below 500 for the season in which they rushed the
ball at least 25 times -- going under by an average of 9.6 ppgâ€
posted by phantom
Oct. 12 2006 2:55pm -
0 likes
Power sweep
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NCAA
4* USC over Arizona St - ASU HC Koetter probably spent his entire bye week second guessing his
Aug QB decision (Carpenter, 9 int) which caused Keller to transfer to Neb. The Devils come into the
Coliseum after two straight gutless performances vs Cal and Oreg in which they were outscored 97-34.
For the first time in many years the Trojans are flying under the radar and could use a dominating win
here to bolster their poll status (fell behind Florida in AP poll TW). First year starter Booty (242 ypg, 65%,
11-3 ratio) has had a great season thus far benefitting from WR stars Jarrett (212 yds, 3 TD’s - shoulder
inj LW) and Smith (411 yds, 4 TD’s) and also the emergence of true frosh RB Emmanuel Moody (394 yds,
6.6, 2 TD’s). USC is 7-1 SU and 6-2 ATS vs ASU winning its last HG 45-7 (-10). LY, #14 ASU led by 4 late
but USC came back for a 10 pt win on the road. The HT is 8-3 ATS and Koetter is just 2-5 ATS after a bye
and only 3-15 SU vs P10 opponents from the state of CA. USC will be heading into a bye week and won’t
hold anything back against a deflated ASU ballclub. FORECAST: USC 42 Arizona St 7
3* TROY over ULM - It is Oct 14th and you are hosting your first Div IA opponent! Troy is now home
(6-1 SU & 5-2 ATS when hosting SBC) after 4 straight tough road gms (0-4 SU, 2-2 ATS). TU QB
Haugabook is avg 161 ypg (60%) with a 6-7 ratio. Watch for his numbers to improve greatly in conf play
as their new 4 WR spread off will be introduced to SBC foes. RB Jones has 142 yds (5.3) and WR
Banks has 31 rec (10.0). Having faced a high level of competition gives Troy the edge (#60-118). ULM
is off a 10-6 loss to Ark St but it wasn’t as close as the score indicates. They are avg 124 pass ypg while
giving up 193.ULM QB Lancaster is avg 145 ypg (58%) with a 3-6 ratio. RB Dawson has 338 yds (5.1)
and WR Sapp has 17 rec (12.3). ULM was hit hard with graduation losing 21 lettermen LY. This will
cause them to start to fade as the season winds down. The bye week allowed a banged up Troy squad
to regroup and focus on their pass happy offense. FORECAST: TROY 28 ULM 10
3* Florida St over DUKE - The visitor is 5-0 ATS in this series and LY FSU was -30 here and got two late
TD’s incl a 45 yd run on 4th and 2 for the frontdoor cover 55-24. Duke rushed for 191 yds LY. FSU is 7-1
ATS vs Duke when favored by 32’ or less and only 1-5 ATS if 33 or more while the avg score in this series
is 53-16 & avg line is FSU -33. FSU is coming off an upset loss LW vs NCSt as a 9’ pt fav on Thur and fell
out of the Top 25 for just the 3rd time S/’89. QB Weatherford is avg 192 ypg (60%) with a 5-3 ratio. The
Noles running gm continues to struggle as they are only #87 in the NCAA. RB Booker has 233 rush yds
(4.
and 1 TD while A Smith has 228 (4. with 2 TD’s. Duke’s losing streak is now 13 straight (#2 inNCAA) but the Devils are 2-1 ATS TY as a 20+ pt dog. QB Lewis is avg 132 ypg (53%) with just a 2-5 ratio.
WR Riley has 13 rec (15.
and 1 TD. Florida St now makes this trip fighting for its ACC lives. Even with BC(ahead in standings) on deck this tm will not look past an inferior opp. Florida St won for us as a 3★ off a
loss vs Rice (55-7) a few weeks ago and will do the same here. FORECAST: Florida St 41 DUKE 6
OTHER SELECTIONS
2* GEORGIA over Vanderbilt - UGA has regularlyplayed VU the week after their big gm vs Tenn but
is 4-1 ATS seemingly suffering no letdown. The Dogs were embarrassed LW as UT rolled over the
stingy D with 383 ttl yds while smacking 51 pts on them. The off did show some life with 210 1H yds &
24 1H pts (but 2 ST’s return TD’s). QB Tereshinski made his much anticipated return and hit 12-20 for
164 yds with a 1-2 ratio. He was held to just 5 comp’s (37 yds) in the 2H but showed no signs of the
ankle inj. The run gm continues its uphill battle and RB Lumpkin leads with 347 yds (5.7) TY. WR Milner
is the #1 rec with only 9 rec (14.7). The D is led by LB Taylor with 41 stops. The Dogs are without super
PK Coutu for the rest of the yr, but his bkup, Bailey was 2-2 LW. Vandy is off a messy loss to Ole Miss
in which all of UM’s scores were the result of VU TO’s. QB Nickson went down in the 2Q
but bkup Adams hit 10-20 for 176 yds (0-1 ratio). RB Jackson-Garrison has 392
yds (4.7) with 2 TD’s and the #2 rusher is Nickson. WR’s Bennett, Bright and White have comb for 59
rec (13.4) with 6 TD’s. The D is led by LB Goff (50 tkls). Vandy catches a UGA tm that can’t afford to
take anyone lightly after LW’s debacle. LW was Georgia’s 9th home loss S/’99 and all they’ve done is
covered all 8 gms following a home defeat. FORECAST: GEORGIA 34 Vanderbilt 10
2* Nebraska over KANSAS ST - KSt is 22-8 ATS vs the B12 North (6-0 ATS vs NU). LY NU won at
home 27-25 (-6) on a late FG drive (see Past History). NU has not won in Manhattan S/’96 (1st yr B12)
losing their L/2 by 30 ppg. #21 Nebraska defeated Iowa St LW 28-14. RB Glenn (PS#25) had a career
high 148 yds (7.
& the Blackshirt D stopped 3 late drives for the win. QB Taylor (PS#18JC) is avg 233ypg (66%) with a 13-2 ratio. RB Lucky (PS#3) leads the RB’s with 401 yds (6.3). WR Nunn has 19 rec
(16.7). KSt beat Okla St 31-27 LW as KSU scored 2 TD’s in the final 3:04. HC Prince has elected to go
with youth for the rest of the ssn and true frosh QB Freeman (PS#10) is the 1st Fr to start here S/’76
(177 yds, 67%, 0-0). He led a late rally running for a 21 yd TD with 1:11 left. RB Clayton (PS#13) who
was in the doghouse vs OkSt returned LW & has 322 yd (4.
. TE Norwood has 20 rec (8.5). NU has ahuge off edge (#13-77) as the D units are solid for both (#13-32). Nebraska was our pick to win the B12
North and certainly looks to be regaining its old swagger. FORECAST: Nebraska 27 KANSAS ST 6
2* AUBURN over Florida - Fla is riding high after LW’s victory vs LSU which marks the 6th time in
school history that UF has opened 6-0. The last time that happened was in ‘96 which is the last time they
were ranked #2 and UF’s National Champ yr. The Gators have a bye next week and are 12-5 ATS prior to
the break. They are led by the red-hot QB combination of Leak (avg 233 ypg, 65%, 14-4 ratio) and Tebow
(228 rush yds, 5.6, 2 TD passes LW) who made it look easy vs #9 LSU. Top RB Wynn missed LW’s gm but
still leads the tm with 354 yds (5.5). WR Baker has 31 rec (15.9) and 5 TD’s while Cornelius has 17 (19.1)
with 3 TD’s. DB Joyner leads the D with 37 tkls foll’d closely by LB’s Everett and Siler (70 comb stops). Aub
comes into this one shell-shocked after becoming the 1st Top 10 tm to lose to an unranked foe TY at home
vs Ark LW. The run gm could not find its footing with just 60 ttl rush yds and the D (which hadn’t all’d a rush
TD all yr) was pounded for 279 rush yds and 2 TD’s. QB Cox has some questioning if lingering knee and
ankle inj’s are finally catching up to him, and on the yr is avg 170 ypg (62%) with a 5-2 ratio. Workhorse RB
Irons has 515 rush yds (4.
while WR Taylor has 25 rec (12.0) and Smith has 12 (22.0). The Tigers are11-5 ATS (13-3 SU) vs SEC East tms but just 2-6 ATS (1-7 SU) vs Fla although they have covered the L/
2. Auburn has now won 11 straight SEC home gms and is off only their 3rd loss in 3 seasons. After LY’s
pair of defeats they went 2-0 ATS with a combined score of 55-3. FORECAST: AUBURN 20 Florida 13
UNDERDOG PLAY OF THE WEEK
Wake Forest (+6) over NC State
State has had only 4 home wins vs conf opp the L3Y including their nationally televised upset win LW
vs FSU on Thurs Night. LY NCSt had a 303-225 yd edge but lost by 8 (see Past History). NCSt is 4-17
ATS as a fav and is 1-4 ATS after facing FSU under Amato. Pack QB Evans has only made 2 career
starts and is avg 185 ypg (53%) with a 4-1 ratio in those matchups (both wins). LW NCSt finally got its
running game going as RB A Brown rushed for 113 yds (6.3) and on the year has 393 rush yds (6.3)
with 2 TD’s. Evans fav target, WR Dunlap, has 11 rec (14.3) with 3 TD’s. Wake has covered 3 in a row
including 2 outright upsets of the Wolfpack and an OT loss. The HT is 8-2 ATS but WF is 7-2 ATS in this
series. WF is coming off a heartbreaking 27-17 loss to CU, a game in which they led 17-3 at the end of
the 3Q’s but did give us a 3’ * Totals Play Winner on the Over. QB Skinner is avg 131 ypg (68%) with
a 3-1 ratio and actually had a TD rec LW, a pass from WR Morton (12 rec, 17.4, 1 TD). While a previous
young WF team may have faltered after losing in the disappointing fashion they did. This Grobe squad
with its 19 ret starters has the proper attitude in this ACC battle. FORECAST: NC STATE 20 Wake
NFL
4* San Diego over SAN FRANCISCO - It has been feast or famine for the Chargers who get a lower tier
team after facing a pair of stout defensive teams the past 2 weeks in BAL & PIT. The Chargers are 7-3 ATS
as DD favorites & 20-6-1 ATS on the road vs the NFC. SF is 3-6 ATS hosting an AFC team & 5-15-2 ATS
after a SU win. This game has the Chargers #5 & #1 units vs the 49ers #13 & #26 units prior to the Sun
Night game. Martyball has been in full effect so far this season as he & OC Cameron have been very
reluctant to take the restraints off QB Rivers. Rivers has avg’d 163 ypg (66%) with a 3-1 ratio & only
attempted 8 passes in the 2H of the BAL game which basically eliminated TE Gates (10 rec 12.2) & WR
McCardell (6 rec 12.7) as threats. SF has allowed 241 ypg (60%) with a 10-4 ratio TY & earned all 4 of their
int LW vs Walter in his 2nd start & Tuiasosopo coming off the bench. While SF did win as a 3★ LPS for us
LW they have allowed 137 ypg (5.0) on the ground the L4W & face one of the best RB’s in the NFL in
Tomlinson. SD gets the easy win here. FORECAST: San Diego 31 SAN FRANCISCO 10
3* ATLANTA over NY Giants - The Falcons return off a bye week where they are 1-5 ATS as a HF & vs
a non-div team. ATL has rushed for over 200 yds in 3 of 4 games as they play to the speed aspect of the
team. Teams off a bye week are 17-7 ATS if they rushed for 200 yds before the break. The defense has only
allowed 1 offensive TD all season & that was on a double reverse on MNF vs NO. The Falcons #6 defense
also returns DE Abraham & MLB Hartwell here. ATL has done a good job vs the run without them holding
foes to 71 ypg (3.1) as well as the pass with an 0-6 ratio & 57.8 opposing QBR. The Giants needed a big
game vs WAS LW to ease tensions in the lockerroom & with the help of the 2005 Redskins defensive
playbook provided by Arrington they notched a 19-3 win with 20-10 FD & 411-164 yd edges. Non-div dogs
that outgained a div foe by 200+ yds are 5-13-1 ATS S/’94. The Falcons have a good homefield advantage
edge, an extra week to gameplan, more speed than the Redskins & a good defensive edge & are the play
here after winning as a 3’★ LPS for us before the bye. FORECAST: ATLANTA 31 NY Giants 21
OTHER SELECTIONS
2* WASHINGTON over Tennessee - The Redskins beat the Titans 31-14 as a 4 pt AD in 2002. This is the
4th road game in 5 weeks for the beat up Titans who are 1-13 SU & 4-10 ATS on the road. While we regard
HC Fisher as one of the better HC’s in the NFL the Titans are 13-29 SU & 14-28 ATS since 12/1/03. WAS is
9-4 ATS at home & while they are 3-10 ATS as a DD favorite. Earlier this year we won a 3★ LPS on WAS off
a loss vs a similarly talented HOU team 31-15 as a 3’ pt AF. The Titans blew a 10-0 lead (123 yds rushing
(6.5) by RB Henry) vs the Colts LW as they were outFD 13-5 & outgained 201-86 in the 2H. Young only
passed for 63 yds (47%) with a 34.4 QBR & a paltry 3.0 ypa. OC Chow is trying to keep the pressure off him
as he absorbs the offense & this will be the 3rd straight defense that has a reputation for the blitz. Much like
3 weeks ago the Redskins were thumped by a div foe being outFD 10-4 & outgained 155-64 in the 2H vs the
Giants. They will again take on one of the weakest teams in the NFL here. WAS gets a great matchup of their
WR’s vs the Titans #17 pass defense & Portis will face off vs a TEN defense allowing 172 ypg (4.7) rushing
(32nd). This is the line value play of the week as WAS was a 13.5 pt favorite beforehand & the WAS #12
offense at home gets the nod vs the TEN #30 def unit. FORECAST: WASHINGTON 31 Tennessee 10
2* ST LOUIS (+) over Seattle - SEA swept the Rams LY SU & ATS taking advantage of a fractured team
in the wake of the Martz fallout. SEA is 8-3 ATS on the road vs the div foe & STL is 1-6 ATS hosting a div foe.
SEA has one of the worst post-bye records in the NFL at 4-13 ATS & are 3-6 ATS on the road afterwards. LY
the SEA WR corps was beat up but the OL & the run game held together & Alexander took a huge load off
Hasselbeck’s shoulders as he rushed 118 ypg (5.1). This year the OL has been nicked up (LG Womack
knee inj) & Alexander inj’d his foot in the season opener disrupting the SEA balance & they have had injuries
at TE as well. LY the Seahawks had 24-18 FD & 388-301 yd edges but with 136 ypg rush avg (4.
at thispoint. TY SEA has a slim 19-18 FD edge & been outgained 302-292 & the run game has only avg’d 105 ypg
(3.4). STL has been under the radar so far adjusting to Linehan’s new scheme but Bulger hasn’t thrown an
int in 20Q/169 pass att’s (though GB DB’s had 3 drops) & are +12 in TO’s (-10 LY)!! While the Rams haven’t
faced a team with a top 10 offense or defense yet it has momentum & there is a coaching adage which notes
that high powered offenses need a half of playing time after a bye to get up to speed. Look for the Rams to
make a tougher than expected game for the Seahawks here. FORECAST: ST LOUIS 20 (+) Seattle 17
OVER / UNDER
3* Giants/Falcons Over 43'
3* Dolpins/Jets Under 37
3* Eagles/Saints Over 44
2* Seahawks/Rams Under 45'
2* Panthers/Ravens Over 33
Pro Angles (4*s are 15-3 83% L3Y)
4* San Diego Chargers
__________________
posted by phantom
Oct. 12 2006 2:59pm -
0 likes
Point Wise
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Pointwise (NFL) -
NFL KEY RELEASES
WASHINGTON over Tennessee RATING: 2
DALLAS over Houston RATING: 3
CINCINNATI over Tampa Bay RATING: 4
NEW YORK JETS over Miami RATING: 4
KANSAS CITY over Pittsburgh RATING: 5
Cincinnati 27 - TAMPA BAY 13 - (1:00) -- Bengals rested off their 26-17 FD &
236-71 RY deficits in 30½ pt ATS loss hosting the Patriots. As a matter of fact,
Cincy now has a 406-158 RY deficit in its last 2 games. Not the best of stats
for a prospective SuperBowl contender. But taking to the road has been a
tonic for the Bengals of late (4 Palmer TD passes at Pittsburgh), with the guest
covering at a 22-4-1 clip in Cincy's last 27 meaningful games. Bucs are still
winless, but by the narrowest of margins in last 2 efforts: 26-24 & 24-21 losses.
And Gradkowski has filled in nicely for Simms: 20-of-31 for 225 & 2 TDs (no
picks) in his debut. Bengals 13-1 ATS away, while the Bucs are 9-23 ATS vs
non-division in Oct, but a 12-2 HD of late. A Cincy call in this huge gut check.
WASHINGTON 33 - Tennessee 10 - (1:00) -- 'Skins were smoking with 33.5 ppg
in previous 2 outings, upon their game at the Giants: 3 pts, 10 FDs, 10 minute
time deficit. Overland, Washington had a 193-46 RYpg edge in those 2 wins,
but a 155-78 yd deficit in NY. With the Colts on deck, the 'Skins can't afford to
let this one get away. And the Titans provide the perfect opponent. Winless, &
off a brutal loss at Indianapolis. Check Tennessee's last 4 games: 40-7 loss
(21½ pt ATS loss); 13-10 loss (7½ pt cover); 45-14 loss (22-pt ATS loss); &
14-13 loss (17½ pt cover). That's right, time for a lopsided setback. The chalk
is on a 13-4 spread run in 'Skin games, & Gibbs is 7-0 ATS vs non-division foe,
if off a DD spread loss. Titans are 6-13 ATS off a SU loss. 'Skin bounceback.
DALLAS 38 - Houston 13 - (1:00) -- Sure, we know that there are actually some
positives, as far as the Texans are concerned, most notably Carr's amazing
start: 73% completions, with 7 TDs & just 2 picks. And they did hold Miami
to a single TD. But Houston had a 98-48 pt deficit, before that one, & has been
held below 71 RYs in 3 of 4 contests. How about ranking dead last in the NFL
on "D"? The 'Boys, of course, are in an Eagle/Giant sandwich, & must regroup
off 5 TO, 7 sack showing in Philly showdown. Still a 501-223 RY edge in their
last 3 games, & a 72-24 pt edge in their 2 chalk roles. And get this, Dallas is
10-2 ATS off the Eagles, & 10-2 ATS before taking on the Giants. All adds up.
DETROIT 19 - Buffalo 16 - (1:00) -- Back to the drawing board for the Bills, off
their embarrassing display in Chicago. Try 10 FDs, a 100 yd RY deficit, & 3
INTs for Losman, in that 40-7 loss. And check just 11 FDs pg in Buffalo's three
RGs to date. The Bills have now been held below 18 pts in 11 of their last 15
games, & went 0-4 ATS in their first 4 non-division RGs a year ago. For the
Lions, LW may have hurt even worse, as they blew a 17-3 lead (in the 4th) vs
Minny, losing 26-17, with 2 Vike TDs off Lion INT & fumble. Like the Bills, the
Lion have been held below 18 pts, in 12 of their last 15 meaningful games. Buff
is 14-7 on the NFC road, but 23 pts below the spot in that situation this season.
Seattle 20 - ST LOUIS 19- (1:00) -- Third RG for rested Seahawks, & thus far,
the results have been anemic. Check a 35:32-24:28 time deficit in Chicago
rout, as well as zero TDs in their first 2 travellers. That meshes nicely with the
home team covering to the tune of 9-1-1 when Seattle takes the field. Rams
are off to a 4-1 start, but a closer look shows 3 of those 4 wins by just 2, 7, &
3 pts. Stripped Favre of the ball at their own 11 in the final 0:36 LW. StLouis
has been the best in the giveaway/takeaway column with a plus 12 in that all
important category. The dog is on a 6-1-1 ATS run in Ram games, and the pup
is a 6-1 ATS series play. Another? Okay, Seattle is a 7-13 ATS play as a RF.
ATLANTA 27 - New York Giants 17 - (1:00) -- Loved that Giant rout of the 'Skins
(top Pointwise play & only NFL 4* Phone play). From allowing 5 TD passes, to
none vs Wash, with Tiki running for 123 yds. But they now find themselves in
a 'Skin/Cowboy sandwich, vs a team which has absolutely excelled overland in
its 2 HGs to date. Rested Falcons have run for 306 & 262 yds in that role, with
a 46-13 pt advantage. Dunn ranks 3rd in the NFL in rushing, while Vick checks
in at #5. And how about a 5.1 ypr effort in Atlanta's Monday loss at NewOrleans.
The Falcons are just 11-20 ATS as a non-division HF, & astounding 0-10 ATS
at home, off a home win. But their present dominant style of play overrules all.
Philadelphia 27 - NEW ORLEANS 20 - (1:00) -- Well, the Eagles prevailed in
year's most ballyhooed match, behind leadership of McNabb. Another 354 yds
for Donovan, who now has 11 TD throws, vs just a single pick. Entering this
year, Philly was on a 2-8 spread slide away from home, but is 2-0 in '06, with
covers of 8½ & 8 pts. The Saints continue riding the Reggie/Drew bandwagon
for their quick 4-1 getaway. Beat the Bucs on 65-yd Bush punt return in the
final 4 minutes. Brees is now over 1,200 PYs with 11 tosses to Reggie LW.
But the Eagles are 14-4 ATS as NFC RFs, 22-10 ATS in domes, & 7-1 in New
Orleans. This is McNabb's 3rd Superdome appearance: 31-7 Syracuse win
over Tulane in '96, & 21-7 win over Saints in '00. Just a mite tighter this time.
BALTIMORE 20 - Carolina 13 - (1:00) -- Panthers have turned it around with 3
straight wins, after their near disastrous 0-2 start. Went to Keyshawn 5 times
in win over the Browns, taking some of the pressure off Smith, but note just
288 yds for Carolina in that one, with 3 takeaways the difference vs the 1-4
Browns. A Panther turnaround, to be sure, but still no covers, while ranking
just 23rd on "O" & 22nd on "D". The Ravens entered their Monday affair with
the Broncos as 1 of only 3 perfect NFL squads (Colts, Bears), due mainly to
yet another super "D" (#2). McNair has been there in the clutch, but ranks just
25th among starting QBs. The dog is 41-16 ATS in Caro games, but Ravens
ATS: 20-4 non-division hosts, 12-3 favs vs the NFC, 6-0 favs vs winning teams.
NEW YORK JETS 23 - Miami 16 - (4:15) -- As figured, the Jets couldn't stay
with the Jags in J'Ville. NY has now been stung for 72 pts in its last 3 outings,
& ranks ahead of only Tennessee, in pts allowed by an AFC team. Pennington
came from a 6/2 TD/INT ratio to 6/5, with 3 picks in that whitewashing at J'Ville.
But NY has run for 135 & 132 yds in losses to Colts & Jags. Contrast that to
the Dolphs being held below 93 RYs in 4 of their 5 games to date. Miami went
to the more mobile Harrington vs the Pats, with just 1 sack the result. Has to
be a plus for Miami's 26th rated "O. Third HG for NY, which played both the
Pats & Colts tuff. Jets are 8-1 ATS home off a pair of SU losses, & 12-3 in that
setup, if facing division foe. The Biggie? NY is 13-2 ATS vs the Dolphs of late.
San Diego 27 - SAN FRANCISCO 10 - (4:15) -- Nice spot for the Niners, who
catch the Chargers in a Steeler/Chief sandwich, but SanDiego has the look of
a couple of years back, when they it blitzed the oddsmakers. Comeback win
over Pitt was impressive, with Rivers a cool 24-of-37 for 242 yds & a TD vs that
fearsome "D". And nary a 2nd half pt for the Steelers vs the NFL's now top
rated stop unit. Diego is now on a 23-9-2 ATS run, with a 103-36 pt edge for
the season. The Niners are in off prevailing vs the Raiders, despite a 40-yd
deficit (5 takeaways), with Smith tossing 3 TDs. But take note of 9, 6, & 21 yd
scoring drives for SanFran. The Chargers are a 21-6 ATS play vs NFC opponents,
and the SU winner is now 60-3 ATS in SanDiego affairs. Can't back SF.
PITTSBURGH 20 - Kansas City 17 - (4:15) -- Two more picks for Big Ben in loss
to the Chargers, so he now stands at 7 interceptions, with zero TD passes. He
has always played not to lose, but that's what the Steelers are now doing. They
rank 25th in total "O", as well as 28th in passing. Led the Chargers 13-7 at the
half, only to be held scoreless after intermission. Parker seems only bright
spot, but even he is below 4.0 ypr. Chiefs missed covering at 'Zona by a pt,
settling for a FG, after reaching 1st down at Card 4 in the final minutes. Ouch!
But check Huard's superb 61-of-78 (73%) (5/0) while filling in for Green. The
visitor is a 19-8 ATS play in Steeler games, while the Chiefs are 13-5 ATS in
Oct, & Edwards is 10-3 ATS vs a foe off a DD SU loss. KC hangs under spot.
DENVER 30 - Oakland 13 - (8:15 - NBC) -- Third straight night game for the
Broncs, who have been simply awesome in division play of late. Failed to get
the AFC West bacon in first shot, but still stand at 12-3 ATS as a division HF.
Not only that, but the chalk is a 7-1 ATS play in this series. Denver once again
ranks among the best in overland production (#4), & should move it without too
much difficulty vs the NFL's 28th rated rush "D". Five more TOs for Oakland,
in its loss to the Niners, for a total of eleven in its 2 RGs to date. The chalk is
18-6-1 ATS in Raider games of, while Oakland went 0-6 ATS in division play yr
ago, & is 3-16 vs division foes since '02. Shanahan mauls his old squad again.
MONDAY NIGHT
Chicago 23 - ARIZONA 6 - (8:30 - ESPN) -- Awesome Bears are off to first 5-0
start since Mike Ditka was prowling the sidelines in '86. Not only are they perfect,
but have an outstanding 31-7 ppg edge, with their "D" allowing just 2 TDs all yr.
And check the suddenly blossoming Grossman's 10/3 ratio. Leinart certainly is a
breath of fresh air for the Cards (22-of-35 vs the Chiefs), altho he did throw a
crucial INT. Obviously can't see 'Zona's "O" (13.5 ppg in last 4 games) doing
much of anything vs this defense, which has staked Chicago to a plus 10 TOs.
The Bears are on a 7-1-2 ATS run on the road, are 12-3 ATS on the road, off a
win, & Smith is 7-1 ATS off a non-division win & cover. Chicago is only an 8-18
spread play as a Monday visitor, but Cards are 1-4 ATS as Monday HDs. Bears!
posted by phantom
Oct. 12 2006 3:00pm -
0 likes
Rocky's
OVER & UNDER TOTALS
strictly computerized ~
WEEK ENDING OCTOBER 16
NFL
MIAMI - JETS UNDER 36.5
OAKLAND - DENVER UNDER 36.5
posted by phantom
Oct. 12 2006 3:01pm -
0 likes
Dunkel Index - NFL
SUNDAY, OCTOBER 15
Game 403-404: Cincinnati at Tampa Bay
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati 133.628; Tampa Bay 123.951
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 9 1/2; 40 1/2
Vegas Line: Cincinnati by 5 1/2; 42 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (-5 1/2); Under
Game 405-406: Tennessee at Washington
Dunkel Ratings: Tennessee 117.705; Washington 127.492
Dunkel Line: Washington by 10; 41 1/2
Vegas Line: Washington by 10; 39
Dunkel Pick: Neutral; Over
Game 407-408: Houston at Dallas
Dunkel Ratings: Houston 118.795; Dallas 131.443
Dunkel Line: Dallas by 13; 44 1/2
Vegas Line: Dallas by 13; 43
Dunkel Pick: Neutral; Over
Game 409-410: Buffalo at Detroit
Dunkel Ratings: Buffalo 127.245; Detroit 123.217
Dunkel Line: Buffalo by 4; 38
Vegas Line: Buffalo by 1; 40
Dunkel Pick: Buffalo (-1); Under
Game 411-412: Seattle at St. Louis
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle 130.674; St. Louis 123.961
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 7; 42
Vegas Line: Seattle by 3; 44 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (-3); Under
Game 413-414: NY Giants at Atlanta
Dunkel Ratings: NY Giants 128.634; Atlanta 133.904
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 5; 41
Vegas Line: Atlanta by 3; 42
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-3); Under
Game 415-416: Philadelphia at New Orleans
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia 134.828; New Orleans 127.720
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 7; 44
Vegas Line: Philadelphia by 3; 46 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-3); Under
Game 417-418: Carolina at Baltimore
Dunkel Ratings: Carolina 127.299; Baltimore 132.773
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 5 1/2; 35
Vegas Line: Baltimore by 3; 33 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (-3); Over
Game 419-420: Miami at NY Jets
Dunkel Ratings: Miami 125.313; NY Jets 123.423
Dunkel Line: Miami by 2; 38
Vegas Line: NY Jets by 3; 36
Dunkel Pick: Miami (+3); Over
Game 421-422: San Diego at San Francisco
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego 133.639; San Francisco 120.103
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 13 1/2; 45
Vegas Line: San Diego by 10; 42 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (-10); Over
Game 423-424: Kansas City at Pittsburgh
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City 127.957; Pittsburgh 133.815
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 6; 39
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh by 7; 36 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (+7); Over
Game 425-426: Oakland at Denver
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland 116.210; Denver 134.174
Dunkel Line: Denver by 18; 37
Vegas Line: Denver by 15; 36
Dunkel Pick: Denver (-15); Over
MONDAY, OCTOBER 16
Game 429-430: Chicago at Arizona
Dunkel Ratings: Chicago 139.637; Arizona 122.480
Dunkel Line: Chicago by 17; 42
Vegas Line: Chicago by 10; 37
Dunkel Pick: Chicago (-10); Over
posted by phantom
Oct. 12 2006 3:08pm -
0 likes
The “Outplay Factorâ€
posted by phantom
Oct. 12 2006 3:19pm -
0 likes
Dunkel Index - NFL
SUNDAY, OCTOBER 15
Game 403-404: Cincinnati at Tampa Bay
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati 133.628; Tampa Bay 123.951
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 9 1/2; 40 1/2
Vegas Line: Cincinnati by 5 1/2; 42 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (-5 1/2); Under
Game 405-406: Tennessee at Washington
Dunkel Ratings: Tennessee 117.705; Washington 127.492
Dunkel Line: Washington by 10; 41 1/2
Vegas Line: Washington by 10; 39
Dunkel Pick: Neutral; Over
Game 407-408: Houston at Dallas
Dunkel Ratings: Houston 118.795; Dallas 131.443
Dunkel Line: Dallas by 13; 44 1/2
Vegas Line: Dallas by 13; 43
Dunkel Pick: Neutral; Over
Game 409-410: Buffalo at Detroit
Dunkel Ratings: Buffalo 127.245; Detroit 123.217
Dunkel Line: Buffalo by 4; 38
Vegas Line: Buffalo by 1; 40
Dunkel Pick: Buffalo (-1); Under
Game 411-412: Seattle at St. Louis
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle 130.674; St. Louis 123.961
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 7; 42
Vegas Line: Seattle by 3; 44 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (-3); Under
Game 413-414: NY Giants at Atlanta
Dunkel Ratings: NY Giants 128.634; Atlanta 133.904
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 5; 41
Vegas Line: Atlanta by 3; 42
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-3); Under
Game 415-416: Philadelphia at New Orleans
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia 134.828; New Orleans 127.720
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 7; 44
Vegas Line: Philadelphia by 3; 46 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-3); Under
Game 417-418: Carolina at Baltimore
Dunkel Ratings: Carolina 127.299; Baltimore 132.773
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 5 1/2; 35
Vegas Line: Baltimore by 3; 33 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (-3); Over
Game 419-420: Miami at NY Jets
Dunkel Ratings: Miami 125.313; NY Jets 123.423
Dunkel Line: Miami by 2; 38
Vegas Line: NY Jets by 3; 36
Dunkel Pick: Miami (+3); Over
Game 421-422: San Diego at San Francisco
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego 133.639; San Francisco 120.103
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 13 1/2; 45
Vegas Line: San Diego by 10; 42 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (-10); Over
Game 423-424: Kansas City at Pittsburgh
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City 127.957; Pittsburgh 133.815
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 6; 39
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh by 7; 36 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (+7); Over
Game 425-426: Oakland at Denver
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland 116.210; Denver 134.174
Dunkel Line: Denver by 18; 37
Vegas Line: Denver by 15; 36
Dunkel Pick: Denver (-15); Over
MONDAY, OCTOBER 16
Game 429-430: Chicago at Arizona
Dunkel Ratings: Chicago 139.637; Arizona 122.480
Dunkel Line: Chicago by 17; 42
Vegas Line: Chicago by 10; 37
Dunkel Pick: Chicago (-10); Over
posted by phantom
Oct. 12 2006 3:22pm -
0 likes
NFL - Week 6
Pro Football Trend Report
CINCINNATI (3 - 1) at TAMPA BAY (0 - 4) - 10/15/2006, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CINCINNATI is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in road games over the last 2 seasons.
CINCINNATI is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in road lined games over the last 2 seasons.
CINCINNATI is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
TENNESSEE (0 - 5) at WASHINGTON (2 - 3) - 10/15/2006, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
WASHINGTON is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) off a division game over the last 3 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 40-61 ATS (-27.1 Units) as a favorite since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
HOUSTON (1 - 3) at DALLAS (2 - 2) - 10/15/2006, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
BUFFALO (2 - 3) at DETROIT (0 - 5) - 10/15/2006, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
SEATTLE (3 - 1) at ST LOUIS (4 - 1) - 10/15/2006, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SEATTLE is 22-38 ATS (-19.8 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992.
SEATTLE is 16-37 ATS (-24.7 Units) in October games since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
ST LOUIS is 3-2 against the spread versus SEATTLE over the last 3 seasons
ST LOUIS is 3-2 straight up against SEATTLE over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
NY GIANTS (2 - 2) at ATLANTA (3 - 1) - 10/15/2006, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
ATLANTA is 1-0 against the spread versus NY GIANTS over the last 3 seasons
ATLANTA is 1-0 straight up against NY GIANTS over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
PHILADELPHIA (4 - 1) at NEW ORLEANS (4 - 1) - 10/15/2006, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PHILADELPHIA is 107-74 ATS (+25.6 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
CAROLINA (3 - 2) at BALTIMORE (4 - 1) - 10/15/2006, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CAROLINA is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) as an underdog over the last 3 seasons.
CAROLINA is 32-16 ATS (+14.4 Units) in road games in games played on a grass field since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
MIAMI (1 - 4) at NY JETS (2 - 3) - 10/15/2006, 4:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MIAMI is 9-20 ATS (-13.0 Units) against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
MIAMI is 8-18 ATS (-11.8 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
MIAMI is 2-12 ATS (-11.2 Units) versus division opponents over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
NY JETS is 4-0 against the spread versus MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
NY JETS is 3-1 straight up against MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
SAN DIEGO (3 - 1) at SAN FRANCISCO (2 - 3) - 10/15/2006, 4:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SAN DIEGO is 25-10 ATS (+14.0 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
SAN DIEGO is 13-2 ATS (+10.8 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons.
SAN DIEGO is 25-10 ATS (+14.0 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
SAN DIEGO is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) in road games over the last 3 seasons.
SAN DIEGO is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) in road lined games over the last 3 seasons.
SAN DIEGO is 21-7 ATS (+13.3 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
SAN DIEGO is 22-10 ATS (+11.0 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.
SAN DIEGO is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in October games over the last 3 seasons.
SAN DIEGO is 20-8 ATS (+11.2 Units) in road games in non-conference games since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
KANSAS CITY (2 - 2) at PITTSBURGH (1 - 3) - 10/15/2006, 4:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PITTSBURGH is 61-38 ATS (+19.2 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
PITTSBURGH is 39-20 ATS (+17.0 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992.
PITTSBURGH is 30-15 ATS (+13.5 Units) as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992.
PITTSBURGH is 19-9 ATS (+9.1 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
PITTSBURGH is 35-17 ATS (+16.3 Units) in October games since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
OAKLAND (0 - 4) at DENVER (3 - 1) - 10/15/2006, 8:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OAKLAND is 5-15 ATS (-11.5 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
OAKLAND is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
OAKLAND is 5-15 ATS (-11.5 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
OAKLAND is 2-12 ATS (-11.2 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
OAKLAND is 2-13 ATS (-12.3 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
OAKLAND is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) versus division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
OAKLAND is 5-15 ATS (-11.5 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
DENVER is 3-1 against the spread versus OAKLAND over the last 3 seasons
DENVER is 3-1 straight up against OAKLAND over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
CHICAGO (5 - 0) at ARIZONA (1 - 4) - 10/16/2006, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ARIZONA is 30-14 ATS (+14.6 Units) in home games after 2 or more consecutive losses since 1992.
ARIZONA is 4-12 ATS (-9.2 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
posted by phantom
Oct. 12 2006 3:22pm -
0 likes
NFL - Week 6
Sunday, October 15th
Cincinnati at Tampa Bay, 1:00 EST
Cincinnati: 8-1 ATS in road games
Tampa Bay: 13-4 Under vs. NFC North opponents
Tennessee at Washington, 1:00 EST
Tennessee: 8-1 Over off an Under
Washington: 11-3 ATS off a division game
Houston at Dallas, 1:00 EST
Houston: 1-9 ATS off a home win
Dallas: 13-4 ATS off a division loss by 10+ points
Buffalo at Detroit, 1:00 EST
Buffalo: 18-7 Under as a road underdog of 3 points or less
Detroit: 9-1 ATS at home off 5+ losses
Seattle at St. Louis, 1:00 EST
Seattle: 8-1 ATS off a road game
St. Louis: 7-2 Over off a road win by 3 points or less
NY Giants at Atlanta, 1:00 EST
NY Giants: 24-10 Over off a win by 14+ points
Atlanta: 1-10 ATS at home off a home win by 10+ points
Philadelphia at New Orleans, 1:00 EST
Philadelphia: 16-6 Over away after scoring 30+ points
New Orleans: 15-5 ATS at home off a division win
Carolina at Baltimore, 1:00 EST
Carolina: 11-3 ATS as an underdog
Baltimore: 14-5 Under in home games
Miami at NY Jets, 4:15 EST
Miami: 2-12 ATS vs. division opponents
NY Jets: 7-0 Over off 5+ Overs
San Diego at San Francisco, 4:15 EST
San Diego: 10-2 ATS in October
San Francisco: 12-4 Over off an ATS win
Kansas City at Pittsburgh, 4:15 EST
Kansas City: 0-7 ATS away off ATS wins in 2 of their last 3 games
Pittsburgh: 9-0 Over as a home favorite
Oakland at Denver, 8:15 EST NBC
Oakland: 0-7 ATS vs. division opponents
Denver: 5-1 Under as a favorite of 10+ points
** (TC) Denotes Time Change
Monday, October 16th
Chicago at Arizona, 8:30 EST ESPN
Chicago: 1-9 ATS off BB games scoring 25+ points
Arizona: 21-7 ATS at home off 3+ losses
** (TC) Denotes Time Change
posted by phantom
Oct. 12 2006 3:23pm -
0 likes
NFL - Week 6
Bengals (3-1) @ Buccaneers (0-4)-Tampa averaged 6.6 yards per pass attempt in Gradkowski's first NFL start, after averaging 3.1/ 5.8/5.6 in Simms' three starts, so Toledo rookie passed his first test, but Bucs have given up 24+ points in three of four games, and have been outscored 61-17 in first half this season. Bengals off bye; they already have wins at Arrowhead and Heinz, two of NFL's toughest places to win, and have picked off seven passes in four games. Red flag for Cincy is 406 rushing yards they allowed in last two games. Bucs ran ball for 187 yards in loss at Saints, after running ball for total of 130 yds in first three games.
Titans (0-5) @ Redskins (2-3)-Tennessee scoring just 12 ppg, but they've had chance to win/tie in last 2:00 in three of their five losses- they held Colts scoreless in first half last week. Portis could have big day vs Titan run defense that allowed 192.8 rushing yds per game last four weeks, but with erratic nature of Redskin offense (31,36 pts in wins; 16,10,3 in losses), hard to tell if Brunell can make plays passing if Titans stack the run. In five games, Tennessee has been outscored 27-0 on first drive of third quarter, allowing very poor 60.2 yds/drive. This will be first time this year Redskins face a mobile QB.
Texans (1-3) @ Cowboys (2-2)-Houston got first win in last game before their bye, but have allowed 13 TDs on 35 drives (37.1%, worst) and forced just three turnovers, so chance for Bledsoe to silence critics who want Romo in game despite never having seen him play. Dallas has run ball for 167 yds/game over last three games, so they have balance; Cowboys allowed 10,14 pts in their wins, 24,38 in losses. Texans averaging 16.5 ppg, and got drilled 43-24 in only road game so far (@ Indy). Houston yet to gain 300+ yards in game, while allowing 441+ total yards in three of their four games; they've been outscored 24-0, outgained 247-68 on first drive of second half.
Bills (2-3) @ Lions (0-5)-Detroit already -5 in turnovers, so small improvement in offense (nine TDs on 38 drives in last three games) tempered by lack of ball security that typifies a Martz offense (seven TO's in last two games). Buffalo allowed 6,12 points in their two wins, 19-28-40 in losses; they split their two road games. Still doubt Losman's ability to make plays (10-37 on 3rd down last three games) but backing Millen Lions is like asking Devil Rays to win AL East. Last week, Detroit had 17-3 lead at Minnesota, defense held Vikings to one TD, but offense coughed up two TDs in last quarter. Detroit has yet to have edge in average field position this season and have only one sack in last four games.
Seahawks (3-1) @ Rams (4-1)-St Louis tied for NFL lead in turnover margin (+10, +8 in two home games) but lost to 49ers only time they didn't have turnover edge, pretty big red flag. Seattle off a bye and spanking in Chicago, have seven giveaways in last three games, and are probably still without Alexander here. Hawks allowed 64 points in last three halves, still hard to gauge if they have Super Bowl hangover, or how much they miss key OL Hutchinson, who left via free agency (he visits Seattle with Vikings next week). Bad stat for Rams is that they've scored eight offensive TDs, while attempting 21 FGs; good news is that despite failing often in red zone, they're still 4-1.
Giants (2-2) @ Falcons (3-1)- Think Atlanta has advantage in non-division games, as unique style of Vick's running easier to contain when you see it twice a year- they scored 32 pts in only non-division game so far, after scoring 20-14-3 vs NFC South foes. Giant defense shored up in first game after bye (held Redskins to 164 total yards, 3-11 on third down) after allowing 58.7% of third down plays to work in first three games. Atlanta surprisingly bad 16-56 on 3rd down (28.6%), but they've run ball for 252-306-262 yards in their three wins (117 in loss at Saints) and outscored foes 46-10 in two home wins. Giants have had fairly stout run defense so far (allowing 86.5 yds/game). Sandwich game for Giants, in between Redskin/Cowboy tilts.
Eagles (4-1) @ Saints (4-1)-Philly scored 38-31-38 points last three games; they've scored 3+ offensive TDs in all five games and outscored last two foes 45-3 in second half. Gritty Saints finding ways to win; four of their five games were decided by seven or less pts, but they've allowed 354 rushing yards in last two games, a red flag. Good sign for Saints is that they've yet to have edge in average starting field position, but they're 4-1; they've scored special teams TD in each of their home games. Eagles have 23 sacks in five games. Will Eagle WR Stallworth (hamstring) return to play against team that cut him this summer? Saints 3-0 vs spread as underdog this season.
Panthers (3-2) @ Ravens (4-1)-Defensive struggle expected as offensively-challenged Panthers (0-11 on 3rd down in win last week) visit Baltimore (scored 34 points total in last three games). Carolina not making plays (11-59 on 3rd down) but still won last three games; they scored 6,13 in their two losses, 26-21-20 in wins. No one has scored more than 14 on Ravens yet this year, but Baltimore playing on short week after Monday night loss in Denver. Raven OC Fassel, Panther HC Fox worked together with Giants, so some level of familiarity there. Baltimore was +10 in turnovers in first three games, are -4 in last two, as McNair tossed four picks vs Chargers, Denver.
Dolphins (1-4) @ Jets (2-3)-Tough times on both sides; Jets allowing 164.3 rushing yards per game last four weeks; they gave up 72 points in losing last two games (-7 TO ratio in those two games), and had just 45 passing yards in 41-0 loss last week. Miami scoring 12.2 ppg in awful start, with only win 13-10 at home vs 0-5 Titans; they've converted just 34% on third down, have only five TDs on 53 drives, and actually think Harrington gives them their best chance to win at QB, so you know they're grasping at straws. Dolphins are tied for best black zone defense, allowing only one TD on 19 opponent drives that started 80+ yds from goal line, but they haven't had edge in field position since Week 1.
Chargers (3-1) @ 49ers (2-3)- Marty better turn Rivers loose in this game; 49ers allowed 34-38-41 points in their losses, 13-20 in wins. 49ers scoring 26 ppg in three home games (2-1, with only loss 38-24 to Eagles). Norv Turner has helped Smith become NFL QB; Niners are 12th in NFL in TD %age (11-56). Trap game for Bolts, off Steeler win Sunday night, with Chiefs on deck; Chargers have two INT's in each of last three games; they've been + in TO's in all four games, and are allowing just 25% conversions on third down (11-44). SF defense still struggling, ranked last in NFL in red zone defense; only Jets (16) have allowed more TDs than 15 49ers gave up.
Chiefs (2-2) @ Steelers (1-3)-Pittsburgh struggling badly, losing last three games; Roethlisberger has no TD passes, seven picks this year, as effects of appendectomy linger- he isn't as big or strong as last year, and Pitt is just 13-38 on third down in his three starts. Steeler defense has already allowed four TD drives of 80+ yards, while offense already has 10 giveaways. Chiefs scored 64 points in winning two post-bye games; they rallied from 14-0 down to win at Arizona last week, but Johnson hurt neck in that game, not sure of status here. Steelers outscored
39-13 in second half of last three games; they have been -5 or worse in average starting field position every game so far. QB Green still out for Chiefs, who are quickly more of a defensive team under Edwards.
Raiders (0-4) @ Broncos (3-1)- Fifteen points in divisional rivalry game is lot to spot, but you look at Oakland offense vs Bronco defense, and, it doesn't look that big anymore. Denver defense has dominated this year, allowing one TD on 41 enemy drives, which helped them survive an offense that scored one TD in its first two home games (9-6/13-3). Broncos have won 63.3% of all third down plays this year, and have yielded only one TD in opponents' ten red zone drives. Oakland is mess, allowing 28.3 ppg, going 3/out over half (52.2%) the time, with just four TDs on those 46 drives, and a -9 TO ratio. In second half of their first four games, once-proud Raiders have been outscored 64-10, sign of a team with no hope.
Chicago (5-0) @ Arizona (1-4)-Lot of transplanted Chicagoans in desert, so should be decent amount of Bear fans at rare Monday night Cardinal home game. Leinart did well enough (22-35/222 passing) in his first start, but now gets stiff test from Bear defense that has allowed only two TDs on 54 opponent drives, while forcing 15 turnovers, 18 3/outs. Grossman has emerged as passing threat (6.5+ yds/pass attempt in four of five games) which has opened up rushing game (298 yds in last two games). Loss of WR Fitzgerald (hamstring) hurts potentially explosive Cardinal offense; their QBs have been sacked 17 times in five games, but turnovers were down (1) in Leinart's first start.
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posted by phantom
Oct. 12 2006 3:24pm -
0 likes
BIG AL'S NFL GOM - PITT
posted by phantom
Oct. 12 2006 10:26pm -
0 likes
Handicapper: Larry Ness
League: NFL
Event: Seattle Seahawks vs St. Louis Rams on 10/15/2006 at 10:00
Condition: St. Louis Rams
Grade: Ungraded
Promotion: Seattle is 3-1 but the team has allowed more pts than it has given up, which not a good indicator! The Seahawks have dominated the NFC West recently, as they have won 7 straight over div opponents, with QB Hasselbeck posting a QB rating of 95.8. However, Alexander is still out for this game, as is LY's leading receiver, Bobby Engram. Hasselbeck has not played nearly as well TY as he did LY, throwing six TDPs and seven INTs (74.6 QB rating), a year after leading the NFC with a QB rating of 98.2 (24 TDs / 9 INTs). The Rams are no longer the "Greatest Show on Turf" but they are a greatly improved team from recent post-Super Bowl editions. Steven Jackson is tied for the NFL in rushing yards (leads in all-purpose yards) and Bulger has been BRILLIANT. It doesn't hurt that he has Holt and Bruce to throw to but Bulger's numbers are impressive. He's completed 60.4%, averaged 251.8 YPG and has seven TDPs with no INTs (QB rating of 97.2). Seattle's offense is struggling, averaging 292 YPG, which is down from the 369.7 YPG it averaged LY, while leading the NFL in scoring at 28.3 PPG. In two road games in '06, the Seahawks edged Detroit 9-6 in Wk 1 and got CREAMED at Chicago 37-6 in Wk 4. Coming off a bye week, it should also be noted that Sea owns one of the league's worst post-bye records, going 4-13 ATS. The Rams are tied with the Bears for the NFL's most takeaways (15) and lead the NFL in TO margin at plus-12. What's not to like about them getting points. NFL Underdog GOY 20* StL Rams
Larry Ness' Las Vegas Insider (3-0 last three Sundays in the NFL!)
Handicapper: Larry Ness
League: NFL
Event: Kansas City Chiefs vs Pittsburgh Steelers on 10/15/2006 at 13:15
Condition: Pittsburgh Steelers
Grade: Ungraded
Promotion: Are the Steelers done? I'm not buying it, nor I am buying that the Chiefs are anything special. Huard owns the 2nd-best QB rating in the league (107.4) and has completed 70.2% of his passes. Not bad for a guy who hadn't played in an NFL game since 2003 and hadn't attempted a pass since 2000, prior to coming off the bench in Wk 1 when Trent Green was KO'd. KC has won two straight after opening 0-2 (had a Week 3 bye) but the wins have come over the 49ers and Cards. In last LW's game at Arizona, Leinart looked pretty good in his 1st start and I have to believe Big Ben is at least that capable. Yes, he's been DREADFUL (no TDPs and seven INTS plus a 41.7 rating in an 0-3 start) but COME ON! He opened his career by winning 27 of his first 31 starts (including the postseason). Willie Parker has been either excellent (two 100-yard games) or a non-factor. Super Bowl MVP Himes Ward has disappeared since Wk 1, partly because fellow WRs Wilson, Washington and Holmes have a combined 22 catches in four games. Anyway, I just CAN'T see the Steelers NOT turning things around. The D should feast on a Chief OL that's lost both starting tackles from LY (KC had started the same OL for two straight years), one of the main reasons LJ's averaged just 82.8 YPG and 3.7 YPC. Pitt's pass rush (13 sacks) should also cause Huard some concerns, as many noticed he looked very tentative at times vs the Cards LW. Wait until he gets a load of a desperate Pittsburgh D! Las Vegas Insider on the Pit Steelers.
Larry Ness' 20* NFL October Total of the Month (1st TY!)
Handicapper: Larry Ness
League: NFL
Event: Kansas City Chiefs vs Pittsburgh Steelers on 10/15/2006 at 13:15
Condition: Over
Grade: Ungraded
Promotion: For as good as the Pittsburgh defense has been these last few years, the last 41 games played in Heinz Field have seen the 'over' cash 31 times! However, that stat alone wouldn't have me on the over in this game. What I like about this play is that the matchups and situation seem primed for this game to 'fly' over this fairly low total. Big Ben's struggles (41.7 rating with no TDPs and 7 INTs in three starts) and a better than expected early-season performance by the KC defense (No. 4 in YPG at 254.3 and No. 6 in PPG at 13.0) give us a low "target!" I don't believe the Chiefs" D is that good and the Steelers offense has played well at home in '06. Batch led them to 28 points in the opener and in the Cincy game in Week 3, the Steelers owned advantages of 27-15 in FDs plus 365-246 in yards vs the Bengals, only to be done in by five turnovers. This is a desperate spot for the 1-3 Steelers (won the Super Bowl LY in case you've forgotten) and I expect a HUGE game from the offense. As for the KC side, Huard is completing 70.2% of his throws and Larry Johnson (sore neck and all), is surely capable of a big play or two. I expect the Steelers to get to at least 30 points in this one (did it four times LY, averaging 26.5 PPG at home) and for the Steeler defense to create some scoring opportunities as well. This is Pittsburgh's lone October home game and the "Terrible Towels" will get a workout in this one. NFL Total of the Month 20* KC/Pit Over.
posted by phantom
Oct. 15 2006 1:07am -
0 likes
Big al
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Guaranteed Pick: Big Al Mcmordie
Game: Kansas City Chiefs at Pittsburgh Steelers Oct 15 2006 4:15PM
Prediction: Pittsburgh Steelers
Reason: At 4:15 pm, our 5* NFL Game of the Month is on the Pittsburgh Steelers minus the points over KC. The Steelers lost 23-13 last week to drop to 1-3 on the season. But off that loss, Pitt falls into a 49-11 ATS system of mine that plays on certain 1-3 teams off a loss vs. a foe off a SU win. Also, Pitt falls into a system that has won 18 straight which plays on losing teams off a SU loss that are favored over teams off a SU win. Look for the Steeler fans to be waiving their Terrible Towels a lot on Sunday afternoon. Lay the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. And don't miss my NFC Game of the Month or my 3-game NFL package on Sunday.
posted by phantom
Oct. 15 2006 1:08am -
0 likes
Greg Roberts
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Totals Game is KC/PITT over nfl
posted by phantom
Oct. 15 2006 1:08am -
0 likes
northcoast pow for thursday was
Over Saints
posted by phantom
Oct. 15 2006 1:09am -
0 likes
Docs
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5 Unit Play. #118 Take Over 43 in Cincinnati @ Tampa Bay (Sunday 1:00 pm CBS) The Buccaneers showed us something last week behind QB Bruce Gradkowski, as they put 21 points on the board in a hard fought loss to New Orleans in the dome. Week two of the new quarterback should find smoother sailing as the Bengals have one of the worst defenses in the league. The Bengals look to get a bad taste out of their month when they lost @ home to the Patriots giving up 38 points to the Patriots two weeks ago. WR Chad Johnson has yet to get on track this season and expect him to make a statement in this game. Cincy puts up 30-plus points in this one as we take another five units against the books. Cincinnati 31, Tampa Bay 24.
4 Unit Play. #123 Take Kansas City +7 over Pittsburgh (Sunday 4:15 pm CBS) The Steelers are reeling @ the moment and this line is based off of last season and not the 2006 team. The Chiefs picked up a nice win last week in the desert and will be very competitive in this one as well. They are allowing just 14.5 points per game on the road and new Coach Herm Edwards has this team-thinking defense. QB Ben Roethlisberger has not recovered well from off-season injuries and threw two terrible inceptions against San Diego last week and just has not found the magic as in year’s past. This game will be decided by a field goal and thus either way we will grab the money. Pittsburgh 20, Kansas City 17.
3 Unit Play. #130 Take Arizona +10½ over Chicago (Monday 8:30 pm ESPN) The Cards have seen the light since replacing old QB Kurt Warner with up and coming Matt Leinhart. The young pup has shown flashes of brilliance against the Chiefs throwing two long touchdown passes. The is a big deal for the Birds, as they have not hosted a Monday Night Game in about a decade. This will want to showcase their best effort on the national stage since that does not happen very often. The Bears have been the most impressive team in the league this season, but have not beaten anybody impressive on the road this season. The Vikings held with them for most of the game and so will the Red Birds. Chicago 21, Arizona 17.
posted by phantom
Oct. 15 2006 1:09am -
0 likes
Hammerin Hank Goldberg-From ESPN
CHicago -12.5 31-7 over Arizona
JR TIPS
NFL
10,000,000*- CHICAGO-11 1/2 vs. Arizona
5,000,000*- Under 40 Chicago/Arizona
COMPs
Joe Gavazzi
PICK: Arizona Cardinals +11.5 (NFL)
JB Sports (won 19 of 32)
PICK: Chicago Bears -11.5 (NFL
The Wunderdog
Game: Chicago at Arizona (Monday 10/16 8:30 PM Eastern)
This one on paper looks simple, right? Chicago is so dominant from a statistical perspective that this game should be a blowout. How good have the Bears been? They are allowing 7.2 points per game - best in the league. They are ranked 3rd in yards per game allowed. On offense, they are scoring 31.2 per game - also best in the league. Arizona allows 368 yards per game and 24 points per game - both near the bottom of the league. The Cards are definitely a better team at home and they will be pumped up tonight under the Monday Night lights. If Chicago comes in overconfident or underestimates the Cardinals, they could fail to cover this big number. Bad home teams that haven't covered the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games, have covered the spread about 75% of the time over the past ten years. You could call this the "if it looks too good to be true, it probably is" trend. When Tennessee nearly upset Indianapolis as a 18 point underdog last week, people were shocked. And, Chic!
ago is on a 1-9 ATS run after scoring 25+ points in two straight games. You see, sometimes the worst teams do funny things to the best teams and that's why the games are not played on paper. But then again, favorites that have scored a lot while playing great defense typically cover the spread. And Arizona is just 4-12 ATS in conference games the past two seasons. Can rookie Matt Leinart pull of a stunner here? Probably not. But can his team, at home on Monday night, keep it under double digits and get the ATS win? Or will Chicago's domination continue? Good luck to you with your bets.
posted by phantom
Oct. 16 2006 5:00pm -
0 likes
Pigs Picks
BEARS (A) (-10.5) over Cardinals - TRIPLE (3-units)
X’s and O’s – The Bears are playing the kind of football that every team fears. We all knew they would be solid-to-great on defense, and they are. they are 4th in the league overall, 2nd in sacks, 4th in pass defense, and most importantly 1st in points allowed. But they are moving the ball on offense as well, and that's a potent cocktail. Grossman has a QB rating over 100, and the Bears have the #4 passing game in the league while leading the NFL in points/game. The running game has looked sluggish to date, at least compared to last year. But they've still rushed for over 140 yards in each of their last 2 games. Jones and Benson will increasingly share carries, and I look for the stats to improve going forward. Teams still stack the box and dare the Bears to throw. But with Grossman playing so well, teams are paying a huge price. Mushin Muhammad is the class of the WR corps, but Berrian is proving to be the field-stretcher that makes all the difference. Add in Desmond Clarks highly productive start at tight end, and you'll have to play sound, balanced defense to stop these guys. The Cards 4 leading tacklers are all defensive backs, folks! What does that tell you? Even still, they rank 29th in the NFL defending the pass, so the Bears will move the ball and score.
The Cards are what they have been for the last few years: a team with great talent at WR, a lousy offensive line, no running game, and terrible DB's. It is their pathetic O-Line that will cost them in this game, as the Bears front 7 will dominate this game. Arizona is dead-last in the league in yards/rush, which means they'll be in a lot of 3rd-and-long situations. When a defense as good as the Bears knows you're gonna throw, even good teams are in trouble. But Arizona is one of the worst pass-protecting teams in the league, so it could get real ugly for a rookie QB like Leinart. This has the potential to look like men-versus-boys, but there is no standing 8-count in football, so look for the Bears to physically dismantle the clearly overmatched Cards*
posted by phantom
Oct. 16 2006 5:01pm -
0 likes
Pointwise phone selection:
2* Chiacgo Bears
Animal
3* Bears
JEFF BENTON
3♦ Bears-Cardinals OVER
Dr. Bob
( Won BEST BET with TAMPA BAY Sunday )
OPINION - Chicago
DRGSPORTS
Chicago Bears
VegasSportsBookBreakers
Chicago Bears/Arizona Cardinals o38
Guaranteed-Sports-Picks
Chi/AZ u 40
Rocketman Sports
NY.Mets -128
BC Sports Picks
Chi/AZ u 40
Locksmith Sports
Chi/AZ o 40
Info Plays
St.Louis +118
Priceless Picks
Chicago -11
PlayByPlayInc.
CHICAGO atARIZONA Over 38
Shamrock Sports Handicapping
CHICAGO atARIZONA Over 40
BLACK CAT ( HE USUALLY OFFERS PRETTY DECENT WRITE UPS)
Chicago -10.5 Arizona (34-7)
With Chicago easily dominating both side of the lines, Chicago figures to clean up yet again on primetime. My rule on new QBs is beware game 1, but bet against them game 2 (would have been a nice rule to listen to last week). Leinart is in no way prepared for this defense.
posted by phantom
Oct. 16 2006 5:03pm -
0 likes
Brandon Lang
MONDAY ACTION
100 DIME
Chicago Bears
10 DIMER
New York Mets
Tom Freese
Chicago vs. Arizona Chicago -11.5 / 100.0 NA
Title: Tom Freese \'MNF\' 5 Star Side Winner 40-15 ATS System.
Reason:Matt Leinart will be a good QB in the NFL someday. He won't be tonight against a Chicago defense that is allowing just 7.2 points a game. Chicago is in a 40-15 ATS System that says to Play On teams who went over in their last 2 games if they are allowing 14 or less points a game on the year. The Bears are 21-5 ATS after allowing less than 250 yards in their last game. Arizona is just 4-13 ATS when they rush for under 75 yards in a game. They won't approach that tonight. 5 Star Play On Chicago -
Ryan's 5* NFL MONSTER Game of the Month
Ryan is on an 11-4 ATS NFL streak in 3* MAJORS and here is a very rare 5* MONSTER play for Monday Night Football. This is the highest graded play Ryan releases for the NFL and is backed by a wealth of info including a 24 year old system and matchup analysis showing you why this play will be an easy winner. Pay only when it wins.
ARIZONA
posted by phantom
Oct. 16 2006 5:05pm -
0 likes
Ben Burns' MNF Game of the Month MAIN EVENT *5-1*
WOW! After profiting in four of the first five weeks, Ben Burns comes off ANOTHER winning Sunday, including his BIG Winner with New Orleans. Now 3-0 with his NFL GOY plays, Ben is also 5-1 with his Sunday/Monday Night selections. If you like those numbers, then join the All-Time DOCUMENTED NFL Champion for tonight's MAIN EVENT!
ARIZONA
posted by phantom
Oct. 16 2006 5:05pm -
0 likes
Big Al's 100% Monday Night Game of the Month.
Al McMordie had another monstrous NFL Sunday as he won his 5* NFL Game of the Month on Pittsburgh, and also his NFC Game of the Month on New Orleans. Congratulations to all who joined. Now, it's Big Al's #1 Monday Night Football Game for October. Don't miss Al's Monday Night Game of the Month out of a 100% perfect angle. Go get it.
ARIZONA
posted by phantom
Oct. 16 2006 5:06pm -
0 likes
Info Plays
NFL
10* on Bears/Cardinals Over 38
Wire to Wire (winnerscircle sports):
Chicago -10
Spending a dollar or two to bring this down to -10 points. It cost
around -130 or so to do this. It really is just superstition on my part
because I can't see AZ staying close in this one.
The Bears have the passing offense to get this done and well cover the
double digits. AZ has the passing defense (29th) to allow Grossman to
do whatever the hell he wants tonight.
Leinhart is not experienced enough to move the ball against the Bears.
The Chicago defense is going to give the impression that receivers are
open right up to the point where they pick Leinhart off and go the
other way. I figure the Bears get at least 3 interceptions tonight. This
rookie is also not the most mobile of QB's and I expect the Bears to sack
him at least 4 times not counting hurries and knockdowns.
Should be a long evening for the home team and their fans but the boos
should accompany the Bears romp tonight. GL
Mets/St Louis UNDER 10
Handicapping in baseball is unique from all other sports. You have to
be willing to change your normal opinions and leans. The best way to do
that is to cover the names of the teams and pitchers. Then cap the game
the way the stats show. This can make you bet against teams like the
Braves and Yankees a lot because the numbers rarely justify the inflated
lines. That leads you to getting good bets in at very good prices.
Cover up the names of the teams and pitchers (especially Weavers name)
and you see a game that leans heavily to the under. The number is
inflated because of last nights slugfest but this game shouldn't resemble
that one. The umpire is nothing special with a 17-14 over lean and a
rather average 9.59 runs per game. Even the wind will pick up blowing
rather strongly in from dead center at 13 mph. The starting pitching stats
say this should be an under and don't forget these two matched up in a
2-0 pitchers duel earlier in this series.
The interesting part of this bet is that the under is a heavy dog. You
can buy this run up from 9 to 10 and still only have to lay -127 at
Pinnacle. That's a huge bargain for buying a run and betting under. You
normally have to pay -150-180 average for that.
All things point under in this one. GL
posted by phantom
Oct. 16 2006 5:06pm -
0 likes
Gator's Monday Night Football
>>>> In this business you know going in you are not going to win
>>>> them all or even win every day, week, or month in some cases
>>>> even the season but it doesnt make losing any easier. We
>>>> were perfect on our College Selections heading into Saturday
>>>> and then we post a 2-5 number on saturday (4-5 on the week),
>>>> ouch is not strong enough to express how we feel but it will
>>>> have to do on these pages. We will always tell you about the
>>>> losers as well as the winners we have never made excuses for
>>>> our selections and after 20+ years we are not going to start
>>>> now. All we can say is we will continue to work hard and put
>>>> forth our best product in an effort to help make up for a
>>>> tough saturday. We are still up for the season but days like
>>>> that hurt. Our NFL Selections continue to roll on as we are
>>>> having another solid day as of this writing but that could
>>>> change as well so enough about our selections that are
>>>> already in play. We are already working on this weeks card
>>>> and we look forward to a solid week, have a great week, be
>>>> safe and as always good luck! Gator
NFL Monday Night Football 70% Super Situations
Each week we breakdown all of the 70% Super Situations for both
College and Pro Football and then take the Top 7 in College and
the Top 5 in the NFL and use those in our Gator Report
Newsletter.
GatorReport MNF 70% Super Situation:
Play Over - Any team against the total off a cover where the team
lost as an underdog against opponent off a home win by 10 points
or more. (39-14 over the last 10 seasons.) (73.6%) PLAY: Chicago
/ Arizona OVER 40
Gator's News and Notes
Each week during the Football Season we provide Trends and Angles
for some of the weekends premier match ups.
Date: Monday Oct 16th
Time: 8:30pm Est
TV: ESPN
Game: Chicago @ Arizona
Line: Chicago -11 (40)
TECH REPORT:
BEARS: 3-1-1 ATS last 5 in this series, 0-6 ATS on MNF their last
6, 0-6 ATS as a favorite on MNF, 2-6 ATS facing an opponent off
b2b straight up losses, 8-2 ATS versus NFC West foes, 5-1-2 ATS
vs. losing teams their last 8, 11-5-2 ATS their last 18 overall,
8-18-1 ATS on the road on MNF, 6-21 straight up on MNF.
CARDS: 1-6 ATS on MNF, 6-2 ATS off a non-conference game, 7-1 ATS
in 2nd of back-to-back home games, 4-1 ATS as short of 3 or more
versus an undefeated opponent, 2-8 ATS versus non division
conference opponent, 7-0 ATS as a 7+ short when their opponent is
off two 10+ straight up wins.
FUNDAMENTAL SET:
Arizona is being outrushed 130 to 70 yards per game and 4.3 to
2.8 yards per carry. Also giving up 24 points per game and 350+
yards of total offense. The Bears defense is only allowing 230
yards and an average of 7 points per game. The Bear offense is
averaging 31.2 points per game, 109 rushing and 247 passing for a
total of 356 yards of total offense.
ATS HISTORY:
Looking back to 1980 we see home dogs on MNF have posted a record
of 73-51 ATS but you best not be fooled into thinking that this
is a money maker, playing those puppies over the last 12 years
would have been costly. They have gone 26-28-1 against the number
and 24-31 straight up. One set that may be overlooked is the
double digit favorite and they have been a "buy" posting a record
of 25-4 straight up and a solid 19-10 against the number since
1989. Back to the home dog on MNF we see that they are profitable
when their opponent is coming in off a double digit win, going
39-21 ATS. One final note when MNF road teams come in off a
touchdown or more striaght up home win they are 18-43 ATS the
last 61 games.
posted by phantom
Oct. 16 2006 5:07pm