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Rocketman Sports
FREE CFB PLAY TUESDAY
Southern Miss @ Tulsa 7:30 PM EST
Play On: 1* Tulsa -4 1/2
Tulsa is 7-0 ATS last 3 years when playing against a team with a winning record. Southern Miss is only scoring 13 points per game on the road this year. Tulsa is scoring 36.5 points per game at home and allowing only 5 points per game at home this year. Southern Miss is 1-5 ATS last 6 vs .500 or better opponent. Southern Miss is 0-5 ATS off BB SU wins. Tulsa is 7-0 ATS vs .500 or better opponent off SU win. Tulsa is 4-0 ATS with rest. We'll recommend a small play on Tulsa tonight! Thanks and good luck, Rocky
posted by phantom
Oct. 3 2006 4:36pm -
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Info Plays
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MLB
10* on NY Yankees -1.5 -103
CFB
7* on Tulsa -5
posted by phantom
Oct. 3 2006 4:36pm -
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Valley Sports NCAA Football
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Tuesday 10-03-2006
Tulsa(-5.5 Or Less)Over Southern Miss --3 Stars
Tulsa/Southern Miss(Under 48 Or More) --2 Stars
__________________
posted by phantom
Oct. 3 2006 4:37pm -
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Sports Network Write-up:
Southern Mississippi (3-1) at Tulsa (3-1)
DATE & TIME: Tuesday, October 3rd, 7:30 p.m. (et).
FACTS & STATS: Site: Skelly Stadium (35,542) -- Tulsa, Oklahoma. Television: ESPN2. Home Record: USM 2-0, Tulsa 2-0. Away Record: USM 1-1, Tulsa 1-1. Neutral Record: USM 0-0, Tulsa 0-0. Conference Record: USM 1-0, Tulsa 0-0. Series Record: Tied, 2-2-1.
GAME NOTES: The Tulsa Golden Hurricane begin defense of their Conference USA title this Tuesday, when they host the Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles from Skelly Stadium. Tulsa, which won the C-USA championship in its first season in the league last year, enters conference play on a high note, as it pulled out a thrilling 24-23 overtime victory over Navy on September 23rd. It was the second straight victory by the Hurricane, which has been defeated just once in four outings this season. As for USM, it was last in action one week ago, when it defeated UCF 19-14 in its C-USA opener. The win is the third in a row by the Golden Eagles, whose lone loss came to nationally-ranked Florida (34-7) in their season-opener. With regards to the all-time series between USM and Tulsa, it is knotted at 2-2-1. The Hurricane however, defeated the Eagles 34-17 in the school's first-ever meeting as C-USA members last season.
The Eagles have been able to flourish in the early going thanks to a balanced offensive attack that is averaging 181.2 ypg on the ground and a nearly identical 183.2 ypg through the air. Last weekend however, USM's offense stalled a bit, managing just 89 rushing yards and 184 passing in a 19-14 win over UCF. The offense accounted for just one touchdown in the win, but did manage to avoid any turnovers. Running back Damion Fletcher continued his hot start to the season, as he rushed for 109 yards on 23 carries last week. On the year, Fletcher has already rushed for 491 yards and five touchdowns in just four games, while also pulling in eight balls for 176 yards and two more scores. Fletcher is certainly the team's most explosive player, but he isn't the only weapon the Eagles possess. Quarterback Jeremy Young has done a nice job guiding the offense thus far and has completed 54.8 percent of his tosses, for 600 yards with three touchdowns and the same amount of interceptions. Last weekend, Young put forth another solid effort, as he threw for 184 yards and a touchdown on 15-of-31 pass attempts.
Defensively, the Eagles have done a respectable job in holding their opponents to 16.2 ppg and 302.2 total ypg this season. The unit is allowing just 185.8 ypg through the air, and has picked off seven of 129 pass attempts thus far. Last weekend, USM forced a pair of big turnovers which helped overcome the 325 total yards it surrendered to UCF. As a matter of fact, one of the turnovers was a four-yard interception return for a touchdown by Jerome Lyons early in the fourth quarter which proved to be the difference in the 19-14 win. Brandon Sumrall paced the defense with nine stops, while Lyons finished second with seven. On the year, Sumrall leads the Eagles with 25 stops and three forced fumbles, and he also has two of the team's nine sacks.
The Hurricane currently possess one of the top offensive units in C-USA, averaging 30.2 ppg behind 417.2 total ypg. The unit is gaining a respectable 135.5 ypg on the ground, while airing it out for an impressive 281.8 ypg. Avoiding mistakes has also been a strength of Tulsa early on, as it has committed just three turnovers in four games. In its last outing, the Hurricane racked up 444 yards of total offense, including 159 on the ground, in a 24-23 overtime win over Navy. Quarterback Paul Smith led the charge, as he threw for 285 yards and three scores on 24-of-36 pass attempts. It was yet another strong showing by Smith, who has completed 66.1 percent of his throws this season for 962 yards and nine touchdowns against three interceptions. Wideout Ryan Bugg has been his primary outlet thus far, as he leads the team with 16 catches and two receiving touchdowns. Last weekend, Bugg pulled in five balls that went for 97 yards and a touchdown. Tailback Brandon Diles actually led the club with six receptions last weekend, and he also rushed for 90 yards on 15 carries. Diles currently leads the team with 215 rushing yards and two touchdowns this season.
On the defensive side of the ball, the Hurricane have done a tremendous job in limiting its foes to 274.2 total ypg, although the 20.5 ppg it is allowing could stand some improvement. Still, the unit has been nothing short of outstanding against the pass thus far, surrendering just 113.5 ypg through the air. In the team's last game, Tulsa had no trouble stopping Navy's pass attack (73 yards), although the defense had little success against the Midshipmen's option-attack, allowing 283 yards on the ground. Still, the Hurricane did manage to record a turnover and two sacks, in addition to blocking Navy's game-tying extra-point attempt in overtime. Nelson Coleman and Nick Bunting combined for 16 stops and 1.5 sacks to lead the defense. Coleman has been the team's most consistent player on this side of the ball this season, as he paces the team with 32 stops.
These are two of the top teams in C-USA this year and will surely be in the hunt for the league title come season's end. USM knocked off UCF on the road last week, but now faces a rested and confident Tulsa club. The game should be close throughout, with Smith making the difference with his arm for the Hurricane.
Sports Network Predicted Outcome: Tulsa 27, Southern Mississippi 20
posted by phantom
Oct. 3 2006 4:38pm -
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Confidential Kick-Off!! The Gold Sheet!!
America's Handicapping Leaders For 50 Seasons!
11 *BYU over San Diego State
Late Score Forecast:
*BYU 44 - San Diego State 6
Time to roll with extra-rested, well-balanced, ascending BYU (9-2-2 vs.
spread last 13 games) vs. luckless, winless San Diego State, which is now in
major rebuilding mode after losing its top TWO QBs (sr. O'Connell & soph
Mougey) and ball-control RB L. Hamilton. Aztec defense (30 or more in 3 of
4 games) was already stretched to the limit and now must cope with the
relentless force that BYU has become behind accurate sr. QB John Beck,
emerging soph RB Vakapuna, and dual TEs Harline & Coats. After dispatching
defending Mountain West champ TCU with ease (31-17) in Fort Worth in a
Thursday nighter, Cougars now looking to run the table in the conference, as
Horned Frogs did LY. Backup QB Jason Beck led BYU to easy 38-0 victory over
Utah State two weeks ago and is eager for backup playing time.
10 AKRON over *Cincinnati
Late Score Forecast:
AKRON 24 - *Cincinnati 19
Akron holds several edges in this game. First is a distinct QB advantage, as
sr. Zip leader Luke Getsy (4667 career passing yards, 32 TDs) is having a
solid season and has eliminated mistakes in recent games (0 ints., 5
touchdown throws last 2). Conversely, Cincy QB Dustin Grutza has 7 ints. and
just 3 scores in his last 4 games and is coming off the least productive game
of his career (5 completions, 43 yards) against Miami-Ohio. Akron also the
more balanced offense, as Cincinnati is ranked 85th in the nation in rushing
and is averaging just 3.2 ypc. Akron, which boasts 5 returning starters in
its OL, welcomed back RB Dennis Kennedy from a shoulder injury last week, and
he carried 16 times for 91 yards. Zips 7-3 last 10 as a road dog.
10 *KANSAS over Texas A&M
Late Score Forecast:
*KANSAS 27 - Texas A&M 17
Long-time Big XII sources can't believe A&M is favored at all vs. undervalued
Kansas. KU nearly made up 17-0 deficit in character-building 39-32 OT loss
at Nebraska. Expect poised Jayhawks sr. Barmann (405 YP vs. Huskers) to get
off to fast start after going 0-6 with 2 ints. in 1st Q in Lincoln. KU's vet
OL doing an outstanding job picking up blitzes, and since Aggie DL applies so
little pressure, Barmann will have plenty of time to find WRs Murph & Fields
and TE Fine (combined for 21 grabs last week). Jayhawk offense balanced
nicely by RB Cornish (582 YR, 5.1 ypc). Meanwhile, A&M will have a tough go
vs. tenacious KU front 7 (just 89 ypg rushing & 3.1 ypc). That will put
extra pressure on A&M soph QB McGee (only 9 of 20, 0 TDs in devastating,
last-second home loss vs. Texas Tech). Franchione's squad only 3-12 vs.
spread away since '03, while KU 10-3 vs spread in Lawrence since '04.
10 CLEMSON over *Wake Forest
Late Score Forecast:
CLEMSON 41 - *Wake Forest 13
It would be too harsh to call scrappy Wake Forest a "pretender." Let's just
say the 5-0 Demon Deacons have benefited from a kind early-season slate. A
schedule that in no way prepared them for challenge they face in this game.
Lightning-fast Clemson (50+ points in 3 of first 5) bears little resemblance
to feckless attacks of Duke, UConn, and Ole Miss (not to mention Div. I-AA
Liberty) Wake has faced in recent weeks. Tiger weapons are too numerous to
list, but they include explosive soph RB James Davis (512 YR & 11 TDs),
blue-chip true frosh RB C.J. Spiller (82-yard TD at BC; 185 YR in last 2
games), and blazing true frosh WR Jacoby Ford, who has already returned a
punt and a kick more than 90 yards for scores. No way Deacons, who've
already lost their starting QB and best RB to season-ending injuries, can
keep pace. Wake atop ACC standings, but not for long.
10 *PHILADELPHIA over Dallas
Late Score Forecast:
*PHILADELPHIA 27 - Dallas 13
No question this will be a very chippy game, at least at the start, with
Terrell Owens returning to Philly. Insiders report he is not hated
throughout all of the locker room, where he still has many friends. But his
presence on the enemy Cowboys guarantees a peak effort from the Eagles,
especially QB McNabb, who has lost weight and regained nimbleness during LY's
rehab. More importantly, in the pits-where so many games are
decided-Philly's 8-man DL rotation up front on defense is a plus vs. Dallas'
problematic OL and Drew Bledsoe. And the addition of speed WR Dont‚
Stallworth is a plus vs. the Cowboys' still-coagulating secondary. It might
not come easy, but the Eagles are the percentage side to "get there."
TOTALS: OVER (59) in New Mexico State-Idaho game-Aggies have explosive
offense, no defense; game is indoors. UNDER (37) in Cleveland-Carolina
game-Browns 13-6-1 "under" since former Pats' def. coord. Romeo Crennel took
over; Cleveland's OL overmatched. UNDER (33) in Baltimore-Denver game-Ravens
"under" 3 of 4 TY; Broncos (yielding 10 ppg) in 3 of 3.
HONORABLE MENTION (Nine-Rated Games): NAVY (+3) at Air Force-Navy has become
more physical than the "Flyboys;" Middies a terrific traveler. MICHIGAN
STATE (+17) at Michigan-Lofty number in rivalry, but check the status of
Spartan QB Stanton (ribs) & RB Ringer (sprained knee) before proceeding.
BAYLOR (+5) at Colorado-CU has lost 9 straight; Bears have the coaching and
sr. QB to make Buffs prove that can break streak. WESTERN MICHIGAN (-3) at
Ohio-It looks as if Bobcats (7 ppg last 3) have forgotten how to play
offense. CHICAGO (-11.5) vs. Buffalo-Even laying DDs, will watch with great
interest while young Bills QB Losman tries to solve rampaging Bear defense
posted by phantom
Oct. 3 2006 6:14pm -
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Pointwise
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RATINGS 1* Best and down from there.
BYU 1*
TEX TECH 1*
LSU 2*
HAWAII 3*
TENN 3*
KENT ST 4*
CLEMSON 5*
BOISE ST 5*
PROS
NYG 2*
KC 3*
JACK 4*
GREEN B 4*
PATS 5*
posted by phantom
Oct. 4 2006 2:55pm -
0 likes
Kevin o.neill & friends (the Max)
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2
College Football
Thursday, October 5th, 2006
Familiar Foe
@NC State (+10½) over Florida State
Chuck Amato was widely seen as being on his way
out the door in Raleigh, and his popularity among
fans at his alma mater is certainly not cresting. But
the big win in the closing seconds against Boston
College was a needed boost to the psyche of the
Wolfpack program. The heat has been on high in
Raleigh. But one area where Amato has been
successful has been taking on his old boss, Bobby
Bowden. After getting blasted by Bowden in his first
season, Amato has had great success against the
Seminoles. They’ve covered 4 of the last 5 in the
series, and the only non-cover was by a ½ point.
And many of the covers have been dominant. The
5-year total to the pointspread is NC State by 70 in
regulation. That’s the average game being a 2-TD
cover.
Reason for Amato’s success in this rivalry are many.
First of all, he’s very familiar with the thought
process of the Seminoles staff, working with many
of them for years. And the schemes of FSU
offensive coordinator Jeff Bowden aren’t always
difficult to figure out. Another reason for NC State’s
success is the preponderance of Floridians on their
roster. Amato has taken advantage of his coaching
contacts down in the Sunshine State. While NC
State fans are frustrated by their apparent
disinterest in performing well vs. Tobacco Road
rivals, they get up for the Seminoles and always
have. Now that the talent levels are closer, the
motivation has been a deciding factor in this rivalry.
Importantly, NCSU appears to have found a
quarterback for the first time in the post-Phillip
Rivers era. Daniel Evans played well. He has been
around the NC State program his entire life (his dad
is the radio color man), so this isn’t exactly a
mystery to him. While NC State is in Evans’ blood,
his teammates from Florida put great emphasis on
this game, and their coach is at his best in this role,
11-3 against the spread as a dog of 5½ or more.
Florida State by only 4.
Saturday, October 7, 2006
Preparation Edge
Maryland (+14) over @Georgia Tech
Great win for Georgia Tech on Saturday over
Virginia Tech, as Blacksburg is one tough place to
win. But while the Terps haven’t looked terribly
good thus far, Maryland has some significant
advantages in this game. One big advantage is the
preparation time. While the Yellow Jackets
celebrate the win over the Hokies, Maryland was off
last Saturday. That means that Terps coach Ralph
Friedgen was putting his exceptional game-planning
skills to work. Advantage Maryland.
Georgia Tech went into their game against Virginia
Tech firing on all cylinders, as they well recalled
their 51-7 loss on that same field last year. As a
result of turnovers, special teams, and one big
offensive play, Tech jetted out to a 21-0 1st quarter
lead and then protected their margin the rest of the
day. In fact, Georgia Tech had a mere 12 first
downs in the game. They were sharper than the
Hokies, which gave them an edge, and then they
simply cruised. After feasting on a couple of big
plays and some breaks they simply coasted home.
Friedgen may have a bit of a chip on his shoulder
about this game for another reason. Georgia Tech
offensive coordinator Patrick Nix is calling plays for
the first time this year, and responded to criticism
that he wasn’t using stud WR Calvin Johnson
enough by comparing the offensive production of his
first few games to those of Friedgen at Tech.
Georgia Tech is the better team, but they’re in a
major flat spot here against a prepared and
motivated opponent. Georgia Tech by only 7.
Rock The Chalk
@Kansas (+2) over Texas A&M
Last week in this newsletter we went against a
Michigan State team that suffered a gutbusting loss
in a critical game and came up flat, losing outright
to a bad Illinois team as nearly a 4-TD favorite.
Texas A&M’s psyche may be just as precarious.
Their highly-compensated coaching savior is getting
a ton of heat. The long TD pass in the closing
seconds was just as heartbreaking in front of their
raucous home crowd, and the Aggies may have just
as bad a situation.
People just assume this A&M defense is going to get
better, and they continue to assume that, but
Kansas may have enough offense here. After a
horrific start against Nebraska (zero passing yards, 2
INT’s in the 1st quarter), Kansas’ backup senior QB
Barmann finished with 405 yards passing and 2
TD’s. Kelly Meier, the talented redshirt freshman,
may be back for this game (arm problems). The
pass defense held Nebraska’s Taylor to 15 for 33
passing, but allowed three TD passes of 75, 78, and
75 yards. But the fact that Kansas overcame a 17-0
1st quarter disadvantage despite 4 1st half turnovers
3
and 2 dropped TD’s shows their resiliency, and the
500+ yards against Nebraska’s well-regarded
defense is impressive. A&M may really come up
empty here, and Coach Fran has shown little ability
to motivate his team in tough spots in his 3½ years
in College Station. First game on an opponent’s
home field for Aggies. The Jayhawks have won 9 of
10 home games since the start of last year, and the
slim points are worth taking. Kansas by 4.
Red River Rivalry
Oklahoma (+5½) over Texas, @Dallas, TX
After losing to Texas in his first season as Oklahoma
mentor, Bobby Stoops beat Mack Brown’s Longhorns
5 straight years both straight up and against the
spread. The margin was been double digits each of
those years, including blowouts by 49 and 52. Last
year, obviously, was a year in which the Longhorns
simply were not going to be denied. And Oklahoma
was very beat up, you may remember how painful it
was watching Adrian Peterson try to go in that
ballgame. He had no business trying to play. Once
healthy, Oklahoma improved down the stretch and
were a very formidable team, to the point where
they were a legit top 5 team heading into the
season before Rhett Bomar’s cash for no-work
situation came to the fore.
Not sure that Texas is significantly better than the
Sooners right now. Oklahoma is rested and ready,
and annually has an outstanding game play for
Texas, one that has been worked on for a long
while. Texas’ friendly with Sam Houston Saturday
was as close to an off-week as you can get, and you
can be sure that the team meetings were not
focused on the Bearkats.
We’re confident that Stoops and his defensive staff
will befuddle young Colt McCoy, who has a very
bright future but showed in the Ohio State game
that he can be rattled. The Oklahoma game plan
made Chris Simms and Vince Young look absolutely
foolish every year except last year, when the
Sooners had no answer for Young’s mobility (who
did?). Without having to worry about that weapon,
we’ll look for the Sooners to return to form. In his
swan song in this rivalry, look for Peterson (all but
certain to be going pro) to have a big game.
Oklahoma by 3.
The Nittany Road
Penn State (-2½) over @Minnesota
In retrospect, how impressive was Penn State’s loss
at Ohio State? The 28-6 final score really didn’t
reflect the way that game was played. In the final
minutes Penn State was down only 14-6 and driving
for a potential game-tying TD and 2-pointer, but a
couple of defensive TD’s (we’ve seen OSU’s
propensity to cause turnovers) garnered Buckeye
backers the unlikely cover. Penn State was
outgained only 253-248 in the Horseshoe, which is
pretty impressive. The Nittany Lions were similarly
competitive from a yardage perspective at Notre
Dame but that game was a bit different, as ND shot
out to a big lead then played soft D late. Penn State
QB Anthony Morrelli has made some significant
mistakes on the road but the HumphreyDome is not
the kind of intimidating setting that was found in
South Bend or Columbus.
In addition to the setting not being a significant
problem, the quality of opponent is much less here
as well. The Gophers have a youngish offensive line
and RB corps, and QB Bryan Cupito is finding that
when the line is not stacked to try to stop a
powerful running game, it is more difficult to throw.
Michigan’s workmanlike 28-14 win at Minnesota
Saturday was done on yardage of 518-323,
dominance not reflected in the final score. In the
Gophers significant loss at Cal, they were outgained
531-352. Penn State’s yardage edge was 528-240
in their win over Northwestern Saturday. Nittany
Lions are simply significantly better, so we’ll lay the
short road chalk with Paterno and his boys. Penn
State by 10.
SEC East Dawgfight
@Georgia (+2) over Tennessee
Curious matchup as the alma maters of Odell
Thurman and Albert Haynesworth meet in Athens.
New Tennessee offensive coordinator David
Cutcliiffe (think folks in Oxford, Mississippi don’t miss
him?) has Erik Ainge playing improved football. But
there is a big difference between traveling to
Memphis (where half the stadium is wearing Orange
anyhow) against a team that has installed an
entirely new defense in two weeks (Tiger DC Joe
Lee Dunn was fired midseason) after getting lit up
on a weekly basis thus far. Even then, the Vols
only scored 10 points in the first half.
Now the offense of Georgia has struggled mightily at
times. They are having trouble sustaining drives
and are averaging only 297 yard per game. The
offensive line isn’t opening holes and Marc Richt isn’t
always committed to the running game. They
scored only 28 points the past two weeks against
Colorado and Ole’ Miss, the 14 points against
Colorado isn’t catastrophic (the Buffs actually have a
very good defense) but the lack of productivity
against Ole’ Miss is troubling. True freshman QB
Matthew Stafford is 36-75 for 485 yards with just a
single TD pass and 3 INT’s. Joe Cox saved the day
against Colorado but struggled Saturday. Don’t be
surprised if the starter in this contest is 5th year
senior Joe Tereshinski, who suffered a foot injury
against South Carolina. Joe T is likely the least
talented Bulldog but he knows the offense well.
4
His steady hand may be a welcome presence for
UGA. But we also wonder if the Bulldog offense
might have some special plans for their rivals from
Knoxville.
On the other side of the ball, the Bulldogs have been
splendid. This is a very strong defense year in and
year, and it is replete with NFL talent again this
season. Now granted, Tennessee has a lot of talent
as well, but they haven’t proven to us that they
deserve to be favored in this matchup. They’ve
come up empty in a lot of big games in recent years,
including losing 5 of the last 6 games in this rivalry,
which they formerly dominated. This is UT’s first
tough environment of the season. Like all games
between the better SEC teams, this one figures to
be relatively low scoring, and a clear lead by the
visitors seems unlikely. Take the points with the
undefeated, top 10 Bulldogs on their very strong
home field. Georgia by 4.
Dave Fobare’s College Tech Play of the Week
KO’s Note: Many readers found Dave Fobare’s
technical work to be intriguing the past two years.
Again this season Dave will be providing Max
readers with a college play of the week and an NFL
play of the week each week in the Max this year.
We’re confident you’ll enjoy Dave’s work and learn
from it as well. Dave’s plays will be clearly labeled.
All other games are written up by Kevin O’Neill.
@Colorado (-4) over Baylor
The Buffs come into this game having lost nine
games in a row dating back to last season. First year
head man Dan Hawkins has wasted no time tearing
the old Colorado squad down and remaking it in the
image of his former team, Boise State. While the
Buffs are 0-5, a closer look reveals that Hawkins is
on the right track and is probably on the verge of
playing winning Big12 football.
Hawkins first order of business was to find an
athletic QB that best suited the style of attack that
made the Boise State offense a juggernaut. Instead
of the QB's Colorado already had on staff, Hawkins
selected Bernard Jackson, a junior. Considering that
Jackson was a hybrid player who played multiple
positions in previous seasons with the Buffaloes, his
development in 2006 is particularly impressive. In
the near upset of Georgia two weeks ago Jackson
ran for 85 yards, the most of any Buffs QB since
Kordell Stewart tore thru Notre Dame for 143 yards
in the 1995 Fiesta Bowl.
The improvement continued last week against
Missouri. Jackson ran for 93 more yards on just 15
carries, and even put up a better yards per pass
number(7.0) than his more heralded Missouri
counterpart, Chase Daniels(6.
. The Tigers won thegame 28-13 only because they were able to succeed
on third down, converting 11 of 18 while the Buffs
could manage converting just 3 of 11.
QB Jackson's growth in the passing game is most
important, as the Buffs have enjoyed an edge in the
rushing game all season. In the Buffs first 3 games,
all at home, they were outgained in the air by a
cumulative 452 yards. In the last two games on the
road against their toughest opponents yet Colorado
cut that margin down to just 153 total yards.
Meanwhile the Baylor Bears have compiled a 2-3
record on some rather poor stats against a weaker
schedule than the Buffs have faced. They have been
outrushed in all 5 games this season, including by
147 yards against lowly Div I-AA opponent
Northwestern State. Baylor is averaging just 1.5
yards per carry on the season. You might say that
doesn't mean much, since the Bears have a passing
based offense. True, but Baylor is getting beat in
that department too, averaging just 6.0 yards per
pass on offense against Div I opponents and
allowing 6.7 on the other side of the ball.
Baylor two weeks ago collapsed at home in a 27-20
loss to lowly Army as a 13-point favorite. College
teams that are successful in wiping the stain of such
a loss the next week with a win often follow THAT
triumph the next week with another loss. That is the
crux of a negative 12-33 ATS system I have going
against Baylor here. The Bears fall into the very
worst parts of that system with marks of 5-22 ATS
and 1-13 ATS.
Thanks to the 0-5 record of Colorado we get to play
a quickly improving squad that did after all go to a
bowl game last year at a very reasonable price over
a Baylor squad that can't succeed in either phase of
the game against a schedule weaker than the
Buffaloes have seen thus far. Take Colorado and lay
the short number over Baylor as the College Tech
posted by phantom
Oct. 4 2006 2:57pm -
0 likes
90% ATS System/Formula (Last Week)
Week 5
Wisconsin -11 WON
Missouri -14 WON
Bowling Green +6.5 WON
Idaho -3 WON
Clemson -30.5 WON
UAB -5.5 WON
North Texas -3.5 LOSS
SMU -3 WON
Michigan -10 WON
New Mexico State +17.5 WON
Week 6
Marshall -3 PENDING
*ONCE AGAIN, I DID NOT BET THESE AND THEY WERE NOT MY PICKS LAST WEEK. HOWEVER, THEY WOULD HAVE FIT THE SYSTEM AND I AM USING THEM THIS WEEK.
Last week was a disaster for me and my picks. However, I did come up with a brand new system/formula. I was studying common trends between all ATS winner last week and in prior weeks and found a combination of intangibles that would have resulted in a 9-1 ATS Week. It combined yards per pass attempt and yards per pass attempt allowed but also included 2-3 other variables. I am solely going to be using those system picks this and see how things go both in College and NFL. Good Luck to all!
2006 CFB Record: 29-26-2 (+1.10 Units)
2006 CFB ATS Record: 19-19-2 ATS (-1.10)
2006 CFB O/U Record: 10-7 (+2.20 Units)
PLAYS OF THE WEEK: 1-2 (-6.00 units)
-------------------------------
Marshall Thundering Herd -3 (2 Units)
The UCF Golden Knights have never been one of my favorite teams to bet on the ATS level and that hasn't changed coming into this game. We all witnessed the Golden Knights pathetic loss at home to Southern Miss last week and I personally got screwed on the OVER. This is a team that several well respected experts were calling for to reach the CUSA Title Game at the end of the year but a 1-3 start to the season pretty has those dreams dashed for George O'Leary and his crew. I mean they still have to play against Pittsburgh, Houston, Rice, East Carolina and I would be shocked if they came out of those games with more than two wins. There is no doubt that with 17 returning starters this is a very experienced UCF team but they experience has been overshadowed by underachievement and unless things took a turn for the better in the last 8 days, don't expect to see a better UCF team on the field tonight. The loss to Southern Miss pretty much did this team in and team morale can't be very high right now. UCF went on the road once this year and they got spanked by Florida to the tune of 42-0 in Week 2 of the season. You can't say this team is coming off a BYE week because they aren't as they played last Tuesday and have been off for the usual 7-8 days between games. I know O'Leary was working on new things in practice this week but he didn't sound confident in his guys tonight and that usually carries around when it comes to team attitude. The Golden Knights are averaging only 10.3 points per game in their last three games and have done on only 279.0 total yards of offense per game and 4.0 yards per play. Now many have called Marshall's defense a swiss cheese type of defense because of all the holes but don't forget that Marshall is coming off a BYE week and they have worked had to improve on the 29.0 points per game they have allowed in their last three games on 351.0 yards per game and 5.8 yards per play over that same period of games. As beatable as Marshall is through the air, they have one of the best LB units in the CUSA. On the ground, UCF is averaging 98.3 rushing yards per game on a measly 3.0 yards per carry over their last three games. That's a big problem tonight because when UCF can't establish a running game, they don't do much through the air. If anything, Marshall have been good at stopping the run, allowing only 90.0 rushing yards per game on 3.9 yards per carry over their last three games which leads me to believe that their secondary is going to have some success tonight. In the air, QB Steven Moffett has looked pretty damn bad this year, completing only 52.0% of his passes for five touchdowns and three interceptions. Over his last three games, he is completing 48.6% of his passes, is averaging only 4.9 yards per pass attempt and has thrown one interception per game. Marshall's weak secondary is going to be well rested and very ready for Moffett. Over their last three games they have been a lot better than I thought, allowing opposing QB's to complete only 56.3% of their passes and sacking opposing QB's 2.7 times per game. What people always seem to forget about Marshall is that their defense is good and their DC Jim Collins is very underrated. The knock on the defense is their youth, but they have done a decent job so far and with so much time to prepare, should be ready for this game. The UCF offense is too ineffective this year and I don't see how they can walk into Huntington and change things around that quickly. UCF might have some success throwing the ball but it won't be enough as Marshall is going to match every score and do a little more themselves.
The Marshall Thundering Herd opened at -3.5 and had been at -3.5 until yesterday. To be honest with you guys, I would have still bet on Marshall without buying the hook because I don't see them winning this game by only four points. We are talking about a team that is only 13-15-2 ATS as a home favorite over the last seven seasons but we are also talking about a team that is coached by Mark Snyder, a Mark Snyder that has finally had an off-season with young team unlike last season when they brought him in very late to coach these guys. Anyways, Marshall are coming off a BYE week and that is a huge advantage in college football because practice time and video tape room time is precious for students and the Thundering Herd have had about 10 more sessions together to prepare for this game than UCF have had. Okay, Marshall is 1-3 on the season but did anyone really expect anything else? Everyone keeps talking about how their only big win this season came against Hofstra at home by a margin of 54-31 but what did everyone expect seeing that they had to play against West Virginia, Tennessee and Kansas State? Lets get real people. They lost to three good teams while UCF lost to Florida, USF and Southern Miss. If you combine all three and the fact that Marshall lost all three of those on the road, there is a huge difference between the two teams. The Marshall offense has been pretty quiet apart from the Hofstra game but expect an explosion of points tonight as they are finally unleashed. The Thundering Herd come into this game averaging 22.7 points per game in their last three games and they have done so on 299.0 total yards of offense per game and 4.9 yards per play. Not too bad for having played against Tennessee and Kansas State during that span. UCF's defense is horrendous. They have one of the worst D-Lines in the CUSA and one of the weakest Linebacking crews. They are allowing 28.3 points per game over their last three games and over those three games, have allowed a whopping 447.7 total yards of offense on 6.6 yards per play (ouch that's tough). On the ground, RB Ahmad Bradshaw has been all that the coaching staff expected him to be this season, averaging 5.1 yards per carry with four touchdowns and and 349 total yards. As a team, the Thundering Herd are rushing for 163.0 yards per game on 4.5 yards per carry over their last three games and that includes their QB who has rushed for over 200 yards on the season. UCF is allowing 131.0 rushing yards per game on 3.8 yards per carry over their last three games and Bradshaw is going to give them problems all night with his game breaking speeding and spectacular dump pass receiving ability. Marshall's QB is Bernard Morris who has played quite well despite tough opponents and is completing 61.5% of his passes this season but has thrown for only three touchdowns. Morris is a decent scrambler/runner and often likes to run for the first down himself. In the air, he is completing 65.3% of his passes over the last three games and he has done so passing for only 5.4 yards per pass attempt. However, UCF's secondary has been getting torched and seeing that Marshall have had tons of time to study this UCF defense, they should come out guns blazing in this one. UCF have allowed their last three opponent QB's to completed 61.4% of their passes for a whopping 9.4 yards per pass attempt which tells me they are going to get destroyed through the air. The key in this game for Marshall is going to be to avoid the costly turnovers that haunted them the last three games (about 3 fumbles per game) and make sure their offense gets in a groove early against a bad UCF defense. This is a revenge game for Marshall because they went to UCF last season and lost 23-13 but won the three meetings prior to that game. Morris and Bradshaw should both have success in this game while some of the younger players should also have breakout games in what looks to me like a big Marshall win.
Trend of the Game: Marshall are 6-1 ATS in their last seven Wednesday games.
Marshall 24, UCF 16
posted by phantom
Oct. 4 2006 3:44pm -
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Power Sweep
4 Kentucky
3 Byu
3 Notre Dame
2 Tennessee
2 Nebraska
4 New England
3 Dallas
2 Arizona
2 Indianapolis
Underdog Oklahoma
3 Giants 0 42
3 Browns u 37
3 Lions o 37'
2 Bills u 33'
2 Jets o 38
posted by phantom
Oct. 4 2006 3:47pm -
0 likes
SCOTT SPREITZER'S WEDNESDAY NITE TOP HAMMER! 4-1!
Scott has smoked the CFB linemaker with a 47-21, 69% Thursday/Friday run! He's currently on a 4-1, 80% winning run in weekday CFB action this season! Tonight, Scott wins again with his coveted Wednesday Night Top Hammer! Grab yet another weekday CFB winner before you pay!
UCF
posted by phantom
Oct. 4 2006 4:04pm -
0 likes
IRON HORSE 10* CONFERENCE USA GAME OF THE MONTH
The money train keeps on rolling!!! Carlo Campanella continued collecting the cash with Tulsa last night and is on an INCREDIBLR 32-13 (71%) Winning Run. Winning is all that counts, ride The Iron Horse to your next winner on Wednesday's Central Florida at Marshall battle.
UCF
posted by phantom
Oct. 4 2006 4:04pm -
0 likes
Smart Money
40 Dime CFB/CUSA Game of the Week
The Smart Money prepares to deliver the winning side of tonights UCF @ Marshall C-USA college Football confrontation and backs this call with some strong analysis and combo of powerful situational angles that are 38-6 86% favoring the winning selection.
UCF
posted by phantom
Oct. 4 2006 4:05pm -
0 likes
Dunkel Index – NCAA Football
WEDNESDAY, OCTOBER 4
Game 103-104: Central Florida at Marshall
Dunkel Ratings: Central Florida 79.104; Marshall 77.025
Dunkel Line: Central Florida by 2; 43 1/2
Vegas Line: Marshall by 4; 44 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Central Florida (+4); Under
posted by phantom
Oct. 4 2006 4:05pm -
0 likes
Marc Lawrence
marshall by 2
posted by phantom
Oct. 4 2006 4:06pm -
0 likes
Dunkel Index – NCAA Football
WEDNESDAY, OCTOBER 4
Game 103-104: Central Florida at Marshall
Dunkel Ratings: Central Florida 79.104; Marshall 77.025
Dunkel Line: Central Florida by 2; 43 1/2
Vegas Line: Marshall by 4; 44 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Central Florida (+4); Under
THURSDAY, OCTOBER 5
Game 105-106: Florida State at N.C. State
Dunkel Ratings: Florida State 101.333; N.C. State 89.640
Dunkel Line: Florida State by 11 1/2; 40
Vegas Line: Florida State (-10 1/2); 40
Dunkel Pick: Florida State (-10 1/2); Neutral
Game 107-108: TCU at Utah
Dunkel Ratings: TCU 97.947; Utah 94.419
Dunkel Line: TCU by 3 1/2; 43
Vegas Line: Pick; 40
Dunkel Pick: TCU; Over
FRIDAY, OCTOBER 6
Game 109-110: Louisville at Middle Tennessee St.
Dunkel Ratings: Louisville 109.202; Middle Tennessee St. 81.874
Dunkel Line: Louisville by 27 1/2; 47
Vegas Line: Louisville by 33; 52
Dunkel Pick: Middle Tennessee St. (+33); Under
SATURDAY, OCTOBER 7
Game 111-112: Northwestern at Wisconsin
Dunkel Ratings: Northwestern 83.464; Wisconsin 98.399
Dunkel Line: Wisconsin by 15; 39 1/2
Vegas Line: Wisconsin by 20 1/2; 44 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Northwestern (+20 1/2); Under
Game 113-114: Purdue at Iowa
Dunkel Ratings: Purdue 89.116; Iowa 102.561
Dunkel Line: Iowa by 13 1/2; 54 1/2
Vegas Line: Iowa by 11; 54 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Iowa (-11); Neutral
Game 115-116: Pittsburgh at Syracuse
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh 89.390; Syracuse 83.107
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 6; 46
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh by 7; 41 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Syracuse (+7); Over
Game 117-118: Indiana at Illinois
Dunkel Ratings: Indiana 80.299; Illinois 84.272
Dunkel Line: Illinois by 4; 49
Vegas Line: Illinois by 7 1/2; 45
Dunkel Pick: Indiana (+7 1/2); Over
Game 119-120: Clemson at Wake Forest
Dunkel Ratings: Clemson 102.657; Wake Forest 87.160
Dunkel Line: Clemson by 15 1/2; 43
Vegas Line: Clemson by 17; 47
Dunkel Pick: Wake Forest (+17); Under
Game 121-122: North Carolina at Miami (FL)
Dunkel Ratings: North Carolina 78.548; Miami (FL) 98.320
Dunkel Line: Miami (FL) by 20; 42
Vegas Line: Miami (FL) by 18 1/2; 43
Dunkel Pick: Miami (FL) (-18 1/2); Under
Game 123-124: Maryland at Georgia Tech
Dunkel Ratings: Maryland 86.576; Georgia Tech 102.006
Dunkel Line: Georgia Tech by 15 1/2; 36
Vegas Line: Georgia Tech by 13 1/2; 40
Dunkel Pick: Georgia Tech (-13 1/2); Under
Game 125-126: Bowling Green at Ohio State
Dunkel Ratings: Bowling Green 76.015; Ohio State 117.368
Dunkel Line: Ohio State by 41 1/2; 48 1/2
Vegas Line: Ohio State by 34 1/2; 51
Dunkel Pick: Ohio State (-34 1/2); Under
Game 127-128: Kent at Temple
Dunkel Ratings: Kent 90.629; Temple 57.782
Dunkel Line: Kent by 33; 47 1/2
Vegas Line: Kent by 23 1/2; 45
Dunkel Pick: Kent (-23 1/2); Over
Game 129-130: Ball State at Buffalo
Dunkel Ratings: Ball State 72.667; Buffalo 67.039
Dunkel Line: Ball State by 5 1/2; 46 1/2
Vegas Line: Ball State by 5 1/2; 44
Dunkel Pick: Neutral; Over
Game 131-132: Arkansas at Auburn
Dunkel Ratings: Arkansas 90.297; Auburn 108.048
Dunkel Line: Auburn by 18; 43 1/2
Vegas Line: Auburn by 15; 41
Dunkel Pick: Auburn (-15); Over
Game 133-134: Duke at Alabama
Dunkel Ratings: Duke 71.856; Alabama 100.745
Dunkel Line: Alabama by 29; 39 1/2
Vegas Line: Alabama by 29; 38 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Neutral; Over
Game 135-136: Oklahoma State at Kansas State
Dunkel Ratings: Oklahoma State 86.893; Kansas State 87.868
Dunkel Line: Kansas State by 1; 38
Vegas Line: Oklahoma State by 2 1/2; 46
Dunkel Pick: Kansas State (+2 1/2); Under
Game 137-138: Texas A&M at Kansas
Dunkel Ratings: Texas A&M 92.609; Kansas 90.697
Dunkel Line: Texas A&M by 2; 57
Vegas Line: Texas A&M by 2; 52
Dunkel Pick: Neutral; Over
Game 139-140: San Diego State at BYU
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego State 74.481; BYU 102.488
Dunkel Line: BYU by 28; 46 1/2
Vegas Line: BYU by 28; 47 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Neutral; Under
Game 141-142: Rice at Tulane
Dunkel Ratings: Rice 74.233; Tulane 69.573
Dunkel Line: Rice by 4 1/2; 55
Vegas Line: Rice by 2; 59
Dunkel Pick: Rice (-2); Under
Game 143-144: Navy at Air Force
Dunkel Ratings: Navy 92.408; Air Force 88.590
Dunkel Line: Navy by 4; 50
Vegas Line: Air Force by 3; 54
Dunkel Pick: Navy (+3); Under
Game 145-146: Stanford at Notre Dame
Dunkel Ratings: Stanford 71.435; Notre Dame 102.988
Dunkel Line: Notre Dame by 31 1/2; 51 1/2
Vegas Line: Notre Dame by 31 1/2; 53 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Neutral; Under
Game 147-148: West Virginia at Mississippi State
Dunkel Ratings: West Virginia 107.374; Mississippi State 77.273
Dunkel Line: West Virginia by 30; 41
Vegas Line: West Virginia by 24 1/2; 49
Dunkel Pick: West Virginia (-24 1/2); Under
Game 149-150: LSU at Florida
Dunkel Ratings: LSU 111.421; Florida 106.404
Dunkel Line: LSU by 5; 44
Vegas Line: Florida by 2 1/2; 40 1/2
Dunkel Pick: LSU (+2 1/2); Over
Game 151-152: Washington State at Oregon State
Dunkel Ratings: Washington State 91.836; Oregon State 89.788
Dunkel Line: Washington State by 2; 57
Vegas Line: Washington State by 3 1/2; 51 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Oregon State (+3 1/2); Over
Game 153-154: Arizona at UCLA
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona 86.707; UCLA 96.166
Dunkel Line: UCLA by 9 1/2; 35
Vegas Line: UCLA by 12 1/2; 40
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (+12 1/2); Under
Game 155-156: Washington at USC
Dunkel Ratings: Washington 92.038; USC 114.145
Dunkel Line: USC by 22; 52
Vegas Line: USC by 20; 49 1/2
Dunkel Pick: USC (-20); Over
Game 157-158: Oklahoma vs. Texas
Dunkel Ratings: Oklahoma 104.815; Texas 111.557
Dunkel Line: Texas by 7; 56
Vegas Line: Texas by 5; 49
Dunkel Pick: Texas (-5); Over
Game 159-160: Penn State at Minnesota
Dunkel Ratings: Penn State 99.690; Minnesota 101.733
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 2; 48
Vegas Line: Penn State by 3; 47
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+3); Over
Game 161-162: Michigan State at Michigan
Dunkel Ratings: Michigan State 94.244; Michigan 108.124
Dunkel Line: Michigan by 14; 49 1/2
Vegas Line: Michigan by 16; 53
Dunkel Pick: Michigan State (+16); Under
Game 163-164: UNLV at Colorado State
Dunkel Ratings: UNLV 71.145; Colorado State 86.532
Dunkel Line: Colorado State by 15 1/2; 38 1/2
Vegas Line: Colorado State by 15 1/2; 44
Dunkel Pick: Neutral; Under
Game 165-166: New Mexico State at Idaho
Dunkel Ratings: New Mexico State 67.481; Idaho 64.058
Dunkel Line: New Mexico State by 3 1/2; 55 1/2
Vegas Line: Pick; 59 1/2
Dunkel Pick: New Mexico State; Under
Game 167-168: Virginia at East Carolina
Dunkel Ratings: Virginia 85.003; East Carolina 82.516
Dunkel Line: Virginia by 2 1/2; 43
Vegas Line: East Carolina by 6 1/2; 43
Dunkel Pick: Virginia (+6 1/2); Neutral
Game 169-170: Akron at Cincinnati
Dunkel Ratings: Akron 79.721; Cincinnati 82.493
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 3; 48
Vegas Line: Cincinnati by 6 1/2; 43 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Akron (+6 1/2); Over
Game 171-172: South Carolina at Kentucky
Dunkel Ratings: South Carolina 90.577; Kentucky 86.027
Dunkel Line: South Carolina by 4 1/2; 41 1/2
Vegas Line: South Carolina by 6 1/2; 49 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Kentucky (+6 1/2); Under
Game 173-174: Baylor at Colorado
Dunkel Ratings: Baylor 85.393; Colorado 80.496
Dunkel Line: Baylor by 5; 30 1/2
Vegas Line: Colorado by 4 1/2; 36
Dunkel Pick: Baylor (+4 1/2); Under
Game 175-176: Nebraska at Iowa State
Dunkel Ratings: Nebraska 104.099; Iowa State 90.979
Dunkel Line: Nebraska by 13; 52
Vegas Line: Nebraska by 6 1/2; 49
Dunkel Pick: Nebraska (-6 1/2); Over
Game 177-178: Memphis at UAB
Dunkel Ratings: Memphis 76.236; UAB 80.361
Dunkel Line: UAB by 4; 37 1/2
Vegas Line: UAB by 6; 42
Dunkel Pick: Memphis (+6); Under
Game 179-180: Missouri at Texas Tech
Dunkel Ratings: Missouri 94.068; Texas Tech 101.001
Dunkel Line: Texas Tech by 7; 50 1/2
Vegas Line: Texas Tech by 4; 56 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Texas Tech (-4); Under
Game 181-182: Western Michigan at Ohio
Dunkel Ratings: Western Michigan 78.071; Ohio 71.201
Dunkel Line: Western Michigan by 7; 35
Vegas Line: Western Michigan by 3; 42
Dunkel Pick: Western Michigan (-3); Under
Game 183-184: Vanderbilt at Mississippi
Dunkel Ratings: Vanderbilt 85.635; Mississippi 79.518
Dunkel Line: Vanderbilt by 6; 39
Vegas Line: Vanderbilt by 1 1/2; 38
Dunkel Pick: Vanderbilt (-1 1/2); Over
Game 185-186: Central Michigan at Toledo
Dunkel Ratings: Central Michigan 80.082; Toledo 84.449
Dunkel Line: Toledo by 4 1/2; 54 1/2
Vegas Line: Toledo by 3; 52 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Toledo (-3); Over
Game 187-188: Connecticut at South Florida
Dunkel Ratings: Connecticut 79.097; South Florida 84.210
Dunkel Line: South Florida by 5; 43
Vegas Line: South Florida by 7; 39
Dunkel Pick: Connecticut (+7); Over
Game 189-190: Tennessee at Georgia
Dunkel Ratings: Tennessee 102.977; Georgia 99.704
Dunkel Line: Tennessee by 3; 41
Vegas Line: Tennessee by 2; 37 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Tennessee (-2); Over
Game 191-192: Oregon at California
Dunkel Ratings: Oregon 106.963; California 108.955
Dunkel Line: California by 2; 59 1/2
Vegas Line: California by 5 1/2; 59 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Oregon (+5 1/2); Neutral
Game 193-194: Wyoming at New Mexico
Dunkel Ratings: Wyoming 83.924; New Mexico 78.925
Dunkel Line: Wyoming by 5; 37
Vegas Line: Wyoming by 1 1/2; 42 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Wyoming (-1 1/2); Under
Game 195-196: Louisiana Tech at Boise State
Dunkel Ratings: Louisiana Tech 70.853; Boise State 109.385
Dunkel Line: Boise State by 38 1/2; 58
Vegas Line: Boise State by 35 1/2; 58
Dunkel Pick: Boise State (-35 1/2); Neutral
Game 197-198: Fresno State at Utah State
Dunkel Ratings: Fresno State 88.948; Utah State 60.369
Dunkel Line: Fresno State by 28 1/2; 45 1/2
Vegas Line: Fresno State by 27; 47
Dunkel Pick: Fresno State (-27); Under
Game 199-200: SMU at UTEP
Dunkel Ratings: SMU 70.513; UTEP 88.672
Dunkel Line: UTEP by 18; 62
Vegas Line: UTEP by 10; 57 1/2
Dunkel Pick: UTEP (-10); Over
Game 201-202: Nevada at Hawaii
Dunkel Ratings: Nevada 82.411; Hawaii 87.899
Dunkel Line: Hawaii by 5 1/2; 63
Vegas Line: Hawaii by 11; 61
Dunkel Pick: Nevada (+11); Over
Game 203-204: Florida International at North Texas
Dunkel Ratings: Florida International 69.354; North Texas 68.997
Dunkel Line: Even; 36 1/2
Vegas Line: Florida International by 3 1/2; 39
Dunkel Pick: North Texas (+3 1/2); Under
Game 205-206: UL Lafayette at Houston
Dunkel Ratings: UL Lafayette 67.865; Houston 86.825
Dunkel Line: Houston by 19; 54 1/2
Vegas Line: Houston by 17; 53
Dunkel Pick: Houston (-17); Over
Game 207-208: UL Monroe at Arkansas State
Dunkel Ratings: UL Monroe 63.439; Arkansas State 74.219
Dunkel Line: Arkansas State by 11; 41
Vegas Line: Arkansas State by 6; 43 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Arkansas State (-6); Under
SUNDAY, OCTOBER 8
Game 235-236: Northern Illinois at Miami (OH)
Dunkel Ratings: Northern Illinois 88.782; Miami (OH) 79.462
Dunkel Line: Northern Illinois by 9 1/2; 49 1/2
Vegas Line: Northern Illinois by 11; 54
Dunkel Pick: Miami (OH) (+11); Under
posted by phantom
Oct. 4 2006 9:28pm -
0 likes
SUNSHINE FORECAST
Thursday, October 5, 2006
Florida State(-10½) at No Carolina State
Power Rating Projection:
Florida State 22 No Carolina State 18
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Florida State 16 No Carolina State 12
Angle: After Bye Week
Go against Florida State ( Playing on the Road, Favored by 7½+ Points, 50-87-2, 36.5% )
Texas Christian(Pk) at Utah
Power Rating Projection:
Texas Christian 23 Utah 22
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Texas Christian 19 Utah 17
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Friday, October 6, 2006
Louisville(-33) at Middle Tennessee
Power Rating Projection:
Louisville 35 Middle Tennessee 9
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Louisville 31 Middle Tennessee 6
Angle: After Bye Week
Go against Louisville ( Playing on the Road, Favored by 7½+ Points, 50-87-2, 36.5% )
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Saturday, October 7, 2006
Northwestern(+21) at Wisconsin
Power Rating Projection:
Wisconsin 30 Northwestern 16
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Wisconsin 26 Northwestern 13
Purdue(+11) at Iowa
Power Rating Projection:
Iowa 33 Purdue 23
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Iowa 34 Purdue 24
Pittsburgh(-7) at Syracuse
Power Rating Projection:
Pittsburgh 29 Syracuse 18
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Pittsburgh 26 Syracuse 15
Indiana(+7½) at Illinois
Power Rating Projection:
Indiana 30 Illinois 26
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Indiana 33 Illinois 28
Historical trend: Take Illinois ( Domination by home team, 6-2, 75.0% )
Clemson(-16½) at Wake Forest
Power Rating Projection:
Clemson 28 Wake Forest 17
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Clemson 24 Wake Forest 13
North Carolina(+19) at Miami-Florida
Power Rating Projection:
Miami-Florida 34 North Carolina 17
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Miami-Florida 33 North Carolina 16
Maryland(+13½) at Georgia Tech
Power Rating Projection:
Georgia Tech 27 Maryland 16
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Georgia Tech 22 Maryland 10
Bowling Green(+34½) at Ohio State
Power Rating Projection:
Ohio State 39 Bowling Green 7
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Ohio State 40 Bowling Green 7
Kent State(-24) at Temple
Power Rating Projection:
Kent State 34 Temple 11
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Kent State 30 Temple 7
Ball State(-5½) at Buffalo
Power Rating Projection:
Ball State 28 Buffalo 20
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Ball State 26 Buffalo 17
Arkansas(+15½) at Auburn
Power Rating Projection:
Auburn 30 Arkansas 10
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Auburn 24 Arkansas 6
Duke(+29½) at Alabama
Power Rating Projection:
Alabama 31 Duke 4
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Alabama 28 Duke 0
Oklahoma State(-2½) at Kansas State
Power Rating Projection:
Kansas State 25 Oklahoma State 21
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Kansas State 21 Oklahoma State 17
Texas A+M(-1½) at Kansas
Power Rating Projection:
Kansas 27 Texas A+M 26
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Kansas 26 Texas A+M 25
San Diego State(+27½) at Brigham Young
Power Rating Projection:
Brigham Young 34 San Diego State 15
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Brigham Young 32 San Diego State 13
Historical trend: Take Brigham Young ( Domination by Brigham Young, 6-2, 75.0% )
Rice(-2½) at Tulane
Power Rating Projection:
Rice 32 Tulane 28
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Rice 37 Tulane 32
Navy(+3) at Air Force
Power Rating Projection:
Navy 26 Air Force 24
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Navy 25 Air Force 23
Stanford(+32) at Notre Dame
Power Rating Projection:
Notre Dame 43 Stanford 16
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Notre Dame 45 Stanford 19
Historical trend: Take Notre Dame ( Domination by Notre Dame, 6-2, 75.0% )
West Virginia(-25½) at Mississippi State
Power Rating Projection:
West Virginia 38 Mississippi State 6
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
West Virginia 33 Mississippi State 3
Angle: After Bye Week
Go against West Virginia ( Playing on the Road, Favored by 7½+ Points, 50-87-2, 36.5% )
Louisiana State(-2½) at Florida
Power Rating Projection:
Florida 19 Louisiana State 17
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Florida 14 Louisiana State 12
Historical trend: Take Louisiana State ( Domination by visiting team, 7-1, 87.5% )
Washington State(-3½) at Oregon State
Power Rating Projection:
Washington State 30 Oregon State 26
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Washington State 31 Oregon State 28
Historical trend: Take Oregon State ( Domination by Oregon State, 6-0, 100.0% )
Arizona(+12½) at U.C.L.A.
Power Rating Projection:
U.C.L.A. 29 Arizona 16
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
U.C.L.A. 24 Arizona 12
Washington(+21) at Southern Cal
Power Rating Projection:
Southern Cal 41 Washington 15
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Southern Cal 42 Washington 17
Oklahoma(+5) vs. Texas
Power Rating Projection:
Texas 32 Oklahoma 25
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Texas 34 Oklahoma 27
Penn State(-2½) at Minnesota
Power Rating Projection:
Minnesota 30 Penn State 26
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Minnesota 31 Penn State 28
Michigan State(+17) at Michigan
Power Rating Projection:
Michigan 36 Michigan State 19
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Michigan 37 Michigan State 20
Nevada-Las Vegas(+15½) at Colorado State
Power Rating Projection:
Colorado State 30 Nevada-Las Vegas 12
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Colorado State 24 Nevada-Las Vegas 7
Historical trend: Take Nevada-Las Vegas ( Domination by Nevada-Las Vegas, 6-2, 75.0% )
Historical trend: Take Nevada-Las Vegas ( Domination by underdog, 7-1, 87.5% )
New Mexico State(Pk) at Idaho
Power Rating Projection:
New Mexico State 28 Idaho 27
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
New Mexico State 30 Idaho 28
Virginia(+6½) at East Carolina
Power Rating Projection:
East Carolina 23 Virginia 20
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
East Carolina 18 Virginia 15
Akron(+6) at Cincinnati
Power Rating Projection:
Cincinnati 25 Akron 15
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Cincinnati 20 Akron 10
South Carolina(-6½) at Kentucky
Power Rating Projection:
South Carolina 24 Kentucky 18
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
South Carolina 24 Kentucky 17
Baylor(+5) at Colorado
Power Rating Projection:
Colorado 20 Baylor 19
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Colorado 14 Baylor 13
Nebraska(-7) at Iowa State
Power Rating Projection:
Nebraska 30 Iowa State 24
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Nebraska 31 Iowa State 24
Memphis(+6) at U-A-B
Power Rating Projection:
U-A-B 25 Memphis 22
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
U-A-B 21 Memphis 19
Historical trend: Take Memphis ( Domination by underdog at U-A-B, 4-0, 100.0% )
Missouri(+4) at Texas Tech
Power Rating Projection:
Texas Tech 34 Missouri 16
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Texas Tech 31 Missouri 14
Western Michigan(-3½) at Ohio
Power Rating Projection:
Western Michigan 23 Ohio 19
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Western Michigan 17 Ohio 13
Vanderbilt(-1½) at Mississippi
Power Rating Projection:
Vanderbilt 24 Mississippi 14
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Vanderbilt 19 Mississippi 8
Historical trend: Take Mississippi ( Domination by underdog at Mississippi, 4-0, 100.0% )
Historical trend: Take Vanderbilt ( Domination on the road by Vanderbilt, 4-0, 100.0% )
Central Michigan(+3½) at Toledo
Power Rating Projection:
Toledo 31 Central Michigan 26
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Toledo 32 Central Michigan 27
Connecticut(+6½) at South Florida
Power Rating Projection:
South Florida 24 Connecticut 19
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
South Florida 20 Connecticut 14
Tennessee(-2½) at Georgia
Power Rating Projection:
Georgia 27 Tennessee 20
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Georgia 24 Tennessee 17
Historical trend: Take Tennessee ( Domination by visiting team, 6-2, 75.0% )
Oregon(+5½) at California
Power Rating Projection:
Oregon 31 California 27
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Oregon 34 California 30
Wyoming(-1) at New Mexico
Power Rating Projection:
New Mexico 25 Wyoming 22
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
New Mexico 21 Wyoming 19
Louisiana Tech(+35½) at Boise State
Power Rating Projection:
Boise State 47 Louisiana Tech 14
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Boise State 51 Louisiana Tech 18
Fresno State(-27) at Utah State
Power Rating Projection:
Fresno State 40 Utah State 11
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Fresno State 38 Utah State 9
S-M-U(+10) at UTEP
Power Rating Projection:
UTEP 32 S-M-U 24
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
UTEP 31 S-M-U 24
Nevada-Reno(+10) at Hawaii
Power Rating Projection:
Hawaii 36 Nevada-Reno 25
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Hawaii 41 Nevada-Reno 31
Historical trend: Take Hawaii ( Domination by home team, 6-0, 100.0% )
Florida Intl(-1½) at North Texas
Power Rating Projection:
Florida Intl 20 North Texas 17
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Florida Intl 15 North Texas 12
UL-Lafayette(+17) at Houston
Power Rating Projection:
Houston 35 UL-Lafayette 19
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Houston 35 UL-Lafayette 19
UL-Monroe(+6) at Arkansas State
Power Rating Projection:
Arkansas State 22 UL-Monroe 16
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Arkansas State 17 UL-Monroe 10
Historical trend: Take UL-Monroe ( Domination by underdog, 5-0, 100.0% )
Virginia Military at Army
Power Rating Projection:
Army 23 Virginia Military 0
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Army 25 Virginia Military 0
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Sunday, October 8, 2006
Northern Illinois(-10½) at Miami-Ohio
Power Rating Projection:
Northern Illinois 35 Miami-Ohio 24
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Northern Illinois 38 Miami-Ohio 28
posted by phantom
Oct. 5 2006 3:13pm -
0 likes
Todays Power Ratings
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The power rating system is based on recent game results. The section should be used to compare the relative strength of the two teams involved. A power line is calculated using both teams ratings and home field advantage. Where the power line differs significantly from the current line, the team with the edge is indicated.
Power Rating Estimate Edge
FLORIDA ST -4
NC STATE *
The play would be NC State!
============================================
posted by phantom
Oct. 5 2006 3:16pm -
0 likes
Thursday College Football BEST BET from Dave Scandaliato's
NORTH CAROLINA STATE WOLFPACK +11 = BEST BET vs. fsu
posted by phantom
Oct. 5 2006 3:17pm -
0 likes
Tim Sullivan ..NY Post
fla st
> 'Noles seek revenge for a 20-15 loss last year. Bobby Bowden had an extra week, as did Chuck Amato, but the road team is 4-1-1 ATS the last six and the FSU defense will squash 170-pound QB Daniel Evans.
_________________
posted by phantom
Oct. 5 2006 3:17pm -
0 likes
Sportsbook Guru -
Thursday NCAA FB Members Pick
3 units Florida State -10.5
posted by phantom
Oct. 5 2006 3:18pm -
0 likes
Jim FIEST Free Pick :
Take the UNDER in the FLORIDA STATE / NC STATE game tonight
posted by phantom
Oct. 5 2006 3:20pm -
0 likes
Russell Peters
50*NC. ST.+11
LT Lock
Utah
current streak 0-1
Brandon Lang
THURSDAY
20 DIME
Tcu
The Wunderdog
Game: T C U at Utah (Thursday 10/05 9:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: T C U +3
Two teams off crippling defeats meet with the loser destined to come out a big step behind in the MWC. Utah comes off a 36-3 loss to Boise State where they were manhandled in every aspect of the game. TCU was shocked by BYU on their home field in a game that looked a lot like a TCU sleepwalk. Utah still gets too much love from the oddsmakers due to their amazing run of two years past with a different head coach and quarterback. Meanwhile TCU has been consistently overlooked the last two years. Bottom line here is that TCU is the superior football team in this matchup and I like their chances to bounce back in a positive way. This team had one goal this season and that was a MWC Championship. The Horned Frogs cannot afford to lose anymore games in conference this season. Expect one of the better efforts of the year from Texas Christian. Utah has played only one other team of this caliber so far - UCLA in the first week. They lost 10-31. Last season, these teams shared seven !
common opponents. TCU was 7-0 straight-up and against-the-spread while Utah was 4-3 SU and 2-5 ATS. TCU is the superior team. With Gary Patterson at the helm, TCU has historically performed very well in expected close games. The Frogs are 10-1 ATS with him as coach with a line of +3 to -3. Take TCU plus the field goal.
posted by phantom
Oct. 5 2006 3:21pm -
0 likes
Dr. Bob's Picks for Thursday
Thursday Strong Opinion
TCU 22 UTAH (-3.0) 19
06:00 PM Pacific, 05-Oct-06
Utah was killed 3-36 by Boise State last week despite being in a great situation and they’ll have to play well to beat a TCU team that is also looking to bounce back after getting soundly beaten at home by BYU. TCU has been just average offensively with starting quarterback Jeff Ballard at quarterback (5.2 yards per play against teams that would allow 5.2 yppl to an average team) and Utah is just average defensively so far this season (4.8 yppl allowed to teams that would average just 4.8 yppl against an average team). Utah’s offense hasn’t been nearly as good as I thought they’d be, as the Utes rate at 0.2 yppl worse than average (5.5 yppl against teams that would allow 5.7 yppl to an average team). TCU’s defense has a considerable advantage against that unit, as the Horned Frogs have allowed just 4.7 yppl this season to teams that would average 5.6 yppl against an average team. Utah does have a strong advantage in special teams, but that’s not enough to overcome TCU’s advantage from the line of scrimmage and in projected turnovers and my ratings favor the Horned Frogs by 2 ½ points. I’ll consider TCU a Strong Opinion at +3 points or more.
posted by phantom
Oct. 5 2006 3:53pm -
0 likes
Adam Meyer
WEDNESDAY OCTOBER 4TH, 2006
15-4 LAST 19 SELECTIONS
7:30 p.m. Florida State -10.5
posted by phantom
Oct. 5 2006 4:28pm -
0 likes
Marc Lawrence
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
this is his midweek alert newsletter he has 2 of them..
College Football College Football Pro Football
College: FLORIDA, GEORGIA, NO ILLINOIS
NFL: PITTSBURGH, SAN FRANCISCO
THE MIDWEEK CONTENDERS
over Cincinnati by 6
Well-traveled Zips take to the road
for the second straight week after
laying an egg at Kent State last Saturday.
Spending weekends in foreign hotels is
nothing new to J.D. Brookhart’s boys as
this marks their FIFTH road game this
season (FYI: teams in Game 6 of the
season, playing on the road for the 5th
time are 12-4 ATS, including 11-1 ATS
as dogs). In fact, playing in Cincinnati this
weekend is where Akron would prefer
being as evidenced by their 5-0 SUATS
mark as road dogs of less than 10 points
under Brookhart. Meanwhile, the Bearcats
check in off a huge revenge win over rival
Miami Ohio with cross river rival Louisville
waiting on deck. Cincinnati’s two victories
this season have come against the likes
of Division 1-AA Eastern Kentucky (who
lost 27-0 at home last week to
Jacksonville St) and the aforementioned
RedHawks of Miami (0-5). It’s been two
years since the Bearcats have won backto-
back contests (0-5) as they have
struggled developing any sort of
consistency under head coach Mark
Dantonio. With a huge edge at the
quarterback slot favoring Akron we can
only look for more of the same
from the Rubber City road
warriors. Tread on!
AKRON best bet
The second half of our two-team big
MAC Attack finds the constantly
improving Broncos of Western Michigan
invading Athens where they take on
Frank Solich’s quicksand-sinking
Bobcats of Ohio University. After opening
the ’06 campaign with a loss at Indiana,
the Broncos have since stormed back
to win three in a row, making it 10 wins
in their last 13 games. 2nd year mentor
Bill Cubit is doing a fine job resurrecting
a team that was 1-10 after he inherited
the reins from Gary Darnell. On the flip
side, Solich is 6-10 at OU since signing
on last year as his troops ride a threegame
losing streak entering today’s fray.
The biggest edge in this contest is on
the ground where WMU holds all the
cards. The Broncos allow a mere 2.1
DYPR, which fits nicely into Ohio’s 2.0
OYPR offense, including a 4.1 YPR
overall net advantage in the Broncos
favor. That doesn’t bode well for an
offense that has averaged a mere 16
PPG under Solich’s command. Hence,
it’s no surprise to find that in each of their
last five losses the Bobcats have failed
to score 10 points in any game. Ride the
wild horse.
There comes a turning point in every
team’s season where it time to s**t
or get off the pot. For the Miami Dolphins,
it’s time to reach for the Ex-Lax. At 1-3 to
start the season, Nick Saban’s crew is
suffering a severe case of irritable bowel
syndrome. What’s gone wrong, you ask?
For openers, a series of bad breaks have
buried them. In Game One against the
Steelers they were on the brink of victory
before the Steelers rallied late in a game
that was much closer than the final score
indicated. In the following game, they
completely outplayed Buffalo, holding the
Bills to a season low 111 yards, before
succumbing late. And last week at
Houston, they led most of the way before
falling apart in the end. They are this close
to being 4-0, yet enter today’s game at
1-3 instead. With that we note that .250
teams in Game 5 off a loss are 19-2 ATS
against a division foe off a win since 1985,
including 17-1 ATS off a SUATS loss.
With the Pats nice and fat off a big win
over the Bengals, look for the Fish to pull
the handle and flush away in Foxboro in
this maximum strength special.
w mich over Ohio U by 13 best bet
W MICHIGAN
MIAMI over pats ..best bet
posted by phantom
Oct. 5 2006 8:22pm -
0 likes
Marc Lawrence
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
awesome 17-0 ATS in its last 17 games when scoring 28 or more
points. Adding fuel to that fi re is the 34 ppg that the BeeGees
have allowed in their last eight non-MAC road games. They are
also riding a 12-0 SUATS streak since last season. The only saving
grace for the Falcons is the fact the Buckeyes fi nd themselves
entrenched inside this week's SMART BOX.
Kent St over TEMPLE by 21
Would you like to know how bad Temple really is? Then, take a
look at this line with the knowledge that Kent State has been
a road favorite fi ve times in the last eight years without ever
laying as many as nine points. And, prior to this season, they had
won only ONE of their previous 104 road games by more than 17
GAME OF THE WEEK UPSET
KANSAS ST over Oklahoma St by 7
Oklahoma State started strong but ran into a fi red up pride
of Houston Cougars and three blind mice in zebra suits to
suffer its fi rst loss of the season. We're not so confi dent that
the Cowboys won't get loss number two here. The Wildcats
are 22-5 SU & 23-4 ATS in the fi rst of two or more home
games while OSU is 0-6 ATS in its last half dozen conference
road games and 0-5 SUATS in its last fi ve visits to Manhattan.
We mention that last stat because Kansas State is superb
36-4 straight-up in its last 40 home games against a foe off
a loss. Again.
4 BEST BET
The Red River war was dominated by Oklahoma for the fi rst
years of Mack Brown's reign at Texas but Mack got back last
year. Behind Vince Young, the Horns rolled to an impressive
45-12 win, the largest margin of victory for the Cows since at
least 1980. It snapped an 0-5 SUATS losing run in this series
by the Herd. Don't let OU's 11-24 ATS mark with revenge
get stuck in your craw. The Sooners are 8-1 SU and 6-3 ATS
with league revenge in their last nine tries. Our feeling is the
pillaging victory-turned-to-loss suffered at Oregon just might
be the only 'L' on their ledger this season. Rest assured, Brown
will lose again - Sooner or later. It's Sooner time, today!
Oklahoma over Texas by 8
5 BEST BET
This is certainly one of the teams that came up in UCLA offseason
team meetings. The Bruins suffered just two losses
last season with Arizona delivering the maximum amount
of humiliation. UCLA went into the desert undefeated at 8-0
and laid nine against the Cats. Before the night was over,
Arizona had 52 points and cruised to a 36-point win, its largest
margin of victory in a conference game in 22 years. UCLA is
still hearing the Over Rated chants. This year, however, they
have assembled a solid defense (3rd best in the land), one that
is a full 137 yards superior to the Wildcats. And, according to
our stat-laden MIDWEEK ALERT newsletter, they also own the
superior ground game with a huge 3.5 net YPR advantage.
With Zona just 1-7 ATS as road dogs of more than 10 points,
UCLA over Arizona by 24
3 BEST BET
Colorado sure has taken its share of lumps this year. But, the
truth be told, the Buffaloes are still playing with everything
they have. That fi gures to be enough against a Baylor Bear
who still hasn't learned how to win on the road. The Bears
are 1-40 SU in their last 41 conference road games. That gives
Colorado a chance to win and, at this number, a win is a cover
as the Buffs are 30-6 ATS in their last 36 straight-up conference
victories. There's also a matter of major revenge as Baylor
upended Colorado as 20-point HD's in their last meeting in
2003. At long last, the Buffalo roams into the winner's circle.
COLORADO over Baylor by 14
posted by phantom
Oct. 5 2006 8:26pm -
0 likes
Red Sheet
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
OCTOBER 7, 2006 VOLUME 38, NUMBER 6
HAWAII 48 - Nevada 24 - (12:00 AM EDT) -- Line opened at Hawaii minus 9, and is now minus 9½. The
Rainbows are one of more unnoticed quality squads in the land. As per usual, they again
field one of the premier passing offenses, with QB Brennan just the latest flinger in June
Jones' system. Averaging 359 PYs for his career, he is in off a 5-TD first half. As all foes
have come to realize, containing Hawaii is near impossible. However, the Rainbows have
had an Achilles Heel which has somewhat offset those impressive "O" stats, namely a
porous "D". But with Jerry Glanville now handling that unit, things have changed. In this
one, they 'Bows catch a solid Reno squad off its "biggie" with arch-rival UNLV, & which lost
by 31 in its last RD setup. The host owns this series: 8-of-8 vs the pts. Lay it.
RATING: HAWAII 89
BYU 55 - San Diego State 10 - (2:00) -- Line opened at BYU minus 23½, and is now minus 27½. That's
right, the largest line movement of the week has been with this contest. The Coogs of BYU
have certainly lit up the scoreboard over the past year, scoring at a 45.6 ppg clip in 9 of their
last 10 outings. QB Beck, of course, is the trigger. A week ago, he led BYU to a rather
shocking upset at TCU (Frogs were on a 13-0 SU run), by throwing for 3 TDs (no interceptions),
on a 23-of-37 effort (321 PYs). A year ago, San Diego St caught the Coogs off a
wrenching 51-50 loss to TCU (in OT), & properly applied a 31-10 pasting. No such luck this
time around, as the Aztecs are a true doormat, with not only an 0-4 record, both SU & ATS,
but now down to 3rd string QBing, & hurting RB corps. Revenge in style.
RATING: BYU 89
IOWA STATE 27 - Nebraska 24 - (7:00) -- Line opened at Nebraska minus 7, and is still minus 7. A week
ago, most of the pundits were all over the Cornhuskers to take out a terrible vengeance
over poor Kansas, as payback for LY's 40-15 embarrassment. Well, Nebraska got off to a
quick 17-0 deficit, but in the end, was lucky to pull out an OT win, despite another fine
performance from QB Taylor: 395 yds, 4 TDs, no picks, and with a 5-0 edge in turnovers.
The difference? A defense which allowed 26 FDs & 574 yds. So figure Taylor to again get
his numbers (had school-record 431 PYs in '05 meeting), but Cyc QB Meyer should also
have a field day. The host owns this series (12-of-14). The wrong team is favored.
RATING: IOWA STATE 88
HOUSTON 45 - Louisiana-Lafayette 13 - (7:00) -- Line opened at Houston minus 16, and is now minus 17.
Don't look now, but this Cougar squad is just a play from standing at 5-0 SU. A week ago,
Houston went down to the Miami Hurricanes by a heartbreaking 14-13 count. Thus a nice
time to stay away, as the letdown factor should be front-&-center. However, we just can't
see it. This is a veteran squad, led by one of the top QBs in the land. Kolb now is the
leading passer in school-history, & that includes a bunch of big-time flingers. He was good
for 18-of-28 with no picks vs Miami, & is now 12 TDs, 1 INT for the season. The Cajuns are
yet "added line" team which gets mauled when stepping up in class. Again.
RATING: HOUSTON 88
BOISE STATE 57 - Louisiana Tech 10 - (8:00) -- Line opened at Boise minus 32, and is now minus 35. We
know, we know. There are more than a few folks who absolutely dread going with squads
carrying so much weight. But that is how things worked out this week. The fact of the
matter is that the Broncos, who have always been a profitable proposition as a substantial
home chalk, have been a bit spotty in that role of late. But last week's road annihilation of
a smoking Utah outfit has again lit the "buy sign". Check holding the Utes to 178 yds, 8
FDs, while piling up 398 yds of their own. Tech, which has a 145-24 pt road deficit, hardly
figures to keep this anywhere in sight. Zabransky leads another romper.
RATING: BOISE STATE 88
CAROLINA 22 - Cleveland 19 - (1:00) -- Line opened at Carolina minus 8, and is now minus 8½. Well, the
Panthers are finally back on track. Figured to be among the last teams still standing, come
late January, they got off to an 0-2 start, both SU & ATS. But the return of their main
weapon, WR Smith (10 catches last wk) has changed their fortunes, with a pair of wins. But
vs the all-important pts, Carolina is still winless. As a matter of fact, in Sunday's win over
the Saints, the Panthers had an 83-yd deficit. The Browns are hardly among the higher
echelon squads, but they did manage 24 pts in that comeback win at Oakland (trailed 21-3),
behind 3 Frye TD passes. And the dog is 41-16 in Carolina games of late.
RATING: CLEVELAND 88
NEAR CHOICES (Rated 87): TxTech, EastCaro, Kansas, NoDame -- NFL: Giants, New Orleans, Denver
LINE MOVES (from largest to smallest move): BYU (-23½ to -27½); SouthCarolina (-3½ to -6½); BoiseSt
(-32 to -35); KentSt (-22 to -24½); WestVirginia (-24 to -26½); EastCarolina (-3½ to -6); Wisconsin (-18½ to
-20½); Marshall (-1½ to -3½); Louisville (-31 to -33); Washington (+22½ to +20½); CentMichigan (+5½ to
+3½); NorthCarolina (+20 to +18½); NoIllinois (-8½ to -10½); OklahomaSt (-1 to -2½); ColoradoSt (-14 to -
15½); WestMichigan (-1½ to -3); NewMexico (+2½ to +1) -- TIME CHANGES: EastCarolina/Virginia: from
3:30 to 6:00; Cincinnati/Akron: from 6:30 to 3:30; Tennessee/Georgia: from 8:00 to 7:30.......
RED SHEET ONLINE
RATINGS: 89 & ABOVE: SUPERIOR PLAY
88 & BELOW: ABOVE AVERAGE PLAY
posted by phantom
Oct. 5 2006 8:27pm -
0 likes
The Steam Sheet
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
STAT STEAMER
Computer whiz, Dan Tesinferno's #1 Play
3* SYRACUSE over Pittsburgh by 4
Syracuse has come back to life under Greg Robinson and,
although we are not ready to pronounce the Orange as BCS
material, we do feel they can hold their own here. The Cuse is
24-13 ATS in its last 37 tries as a home dog, including 14-3
ATS when coming off a SU and ATS win and 17-4 SU in its last
21 games with Pitt. The Panthers, meanwhile, are 16-30 ATS
in their last 46 games as road chalk, including 8-22 ATS into
revenge and 4-20 to the number when favored by 5 or more
into revenge. The emergence of DeLone Carter at TB has given
Syracuse a balanced attack while the Orange defense has
been steady all season long. Pitt has no wins over quality
teams and the 96-9 combined margin of its last two wins
(against Citadel and a QB-less Toledo team) gives us line value
here. Syracuse is 5-0 ATS this year. Make it six-for-six.
THE CUSE IS IN THE HOUSE 24-20!
DANNY'S DOG
Danny's Upset Special
3* FLORIDA over Lsu by 10
We agree that the SEC is the nation's premier conference and
its five premier teams (Florida, Georgia and Tennessee in the
East division with LSU and Auburn in the West) can line up
and play with anybody. When these teams play each other,
we see no justification for the home team to be an underdog.
Florida, in particular, is 15-1 ATS as a conference dog since
1988 and has won 12 in a row on this field. That home streak
started after a loss to LSU in 2004. The Gators did not get
revenge in Baton Rouge last year (they covered, though) setting
up this stat: Florida is 26-7 ATS with revenge off a win of 10
or more. The running game will decide this contest. Florida
runs it better and defends the run better than LSU.
IZODS 20-10!
STAT SYSTEM
A money making angle from Danny T.
When a football team goes out as a road favorite, one of the
keys to victory is a strong defensive effort. Stop the other
team from scoring and getting the crowd all excited and you
essentially negate the home field advantage. Most of the time
you win when you accomplish that but you don't always cover
the spread. When you don't cover the spread, there is line
value the following week, especially if you are favored on the
road again. That's this angle. A road favorite who played well
defensively last week as road chalk but didn't get the money.
PLAY ON any road favorite who allowed less than 16 points
as a road favorite last week if he failed to cover the spread.
26 year ATS = 41-18 for 69.5%
This week's play = *WEST VIRGINIA over Miss State
Oregon - DT Cole Linehan broke his foot in the Arizona State
game and will likely miss the rest of the season.
San Diego St - QB Darren Mougey separated his right shoulder
against San Jose State and will be out indefinitely. TB
Lynell Hamilton had knee surgery and is out for the season.
SDSU lost it best QB, Kevin O'Connell, in the season opener.
Air Force - The Force had three players leave the New Mexico
game with injuries. None of the three, DE Jake Paulson, G
Tyler Dohallow and FB Jacobe Kendrick, returned to action.
Missouri - CB Domonique Johnson tore an ACL in his right
knee against Colorado and will be out for the season.
Pitt - OG John Simonitis broke his ankle in the Toledo game
and will miss the rest of the season.
*Special Stat System Parameter
Give this road favorite a defensive scoring average
of 12 or less and the angle goes to 20-3.
THEY SAID WHAT??
After a reporter suggested that LSU's defensive play in last
year's 21-17 win over Florida was one of its best in recent
memory, LSU DE Tyson Jackson said. "You think? Last
year? Wait till you see what happens this year." Tom Scott
says: "Tyson, you should stick to packaging chicken."
After his team was upset by Illinois, John Loser Smith
answered the inevitable "what happened" with this insightful
remark, "We didn't have our team prepared to play" Tom
Scott says: "John, what, exactly, does Michigan State pay
you to do and how many times in the last three plus years
have you failed to do it? One more thing Smitty, what's
this 'WE' shit? If the team isn't ready to play, and for sure,
it wasn't, it's YOUR fault - period!"
LAST MINUTE WINS AND KEY PLAYS
Graham Harrell threw a 37-yard TD pass to Robert Johnson
with 26 seconds to go in the game to propel Texas Tech to a
31-27 win over Texas A&M. Navy scored on a 77-yard pass
and runs of 68, 52 and 81 yards in its 41-17 romp over
Connecticut. The Middies put up a season-high 464 ground
yards against the nation's fourth-ranked rush defense. Utah
State was at the Idaho four getting ready to go up 21-10 just
before the half when Leon Jackson floated an Iron Butterfly
into the flat. Stanley Franks returned it 98 yards for a 17-14
Idaho lead. Houston was ahead by six and at the Miami 16
when Jackie Battle fumbled the ball into the hands of Chavez
Grant. Miami they drove 84 yards in 8 plays for the winning
TD. South Florida covered against Rutgers when Matt Grothe
threw a 16-yard TD pass with 15 seconds left in the game. The
covering drive started when USF blocked a field goal try with
2:32 left that would have given Rutgers an 11-point cushion.
A REALLY STRANGE STATISTIC
In Auburn's 24-17 win over South Carolina last Thursday,
USC did not take a single snap from scrimmage in the third
quarter. In the fourth quarter, the Tigers ran only four plays
as Carolina almost duplicated Auburn's third quarter magic.
I've never seen anything like that. Not in the same game.
OTHER STUFF
TOM SCOTT SAYS
4* HAWAII over Nevada by 22
In its last three trips to the Islands, the Wolfpack has been
beaten 37-17, 59-34 and 48-26 by the Rainbow Warriors. In
fact, Nevada hasn't done well anywhere on the conference
road. The Pack is 1-9 SU and 2-8 ATS in its last ten conference
road games against .500 or better opposition (average margin:
minus-27 points). Hawaii, on the other hand, is a home loving
football team. The Pineapple Princes are 16-4 SU on the
plantation in their last 20 conference games and a sparkling
9-0 ATS in their last nine SU wins here. In their last 24 league
home games, the Bows have averaged 40 points per game, a
daunting number for Nevada (a perfect 0-11 ATS in its last 11
road games when allowing 30 or more). Wolves could be tired
after wheeling the Fremont Cannon across the state last week.
MACADAMIA MASHING 48-26
3* CLEMSON over Wake Forest by 28
How many times since 1980 has an undefeated team in game
six been an underdog of more than +14. ONCE! Fifteen years
ago. There's a reason for this line. Wake's five wins have come
against Syracuse, Duke, Connecticut, Mississippi and Liberty,
five teams who, if they elected an all-star team, would lose
to Clemson by 50. The Tigers will be motivated, for sure. Last
year's loss to the Deacons on this same field is a painful
memory that needs to be erased. Since that loss, Clemson has
averaged 34 points per game. Wake Forest is 8-40 ATS at home
when allowing 28 or more. The Tigers run for 242 yards a
game. Wake is 19-42 ATS at home when allowing 150+.
A WAKE WAKE 47-19!
the BIG ENGINE
3* AKRON over Cincinnati by 7
Disparate results from last weekend give us some line value
here. The Zips, with TB Dennis Kennedy and WR Jabari Arthur
again in full health, are much more dangerous than Miami
Ohio who took 11 here last week without its star QB, yet the
line difference is a mere five points. Cincinnati is just 7-16
ATS in its last 23 games as home chalk with no revenge,
while Akron is 8-1 SU and 7-2 ATS in its last nine games off
a loss. Team trends are not the impetus for this pick. A powerful
trio of angles that have combined for a 72-17 record
since 1980 is one of the reasons. Another is the difference in
quarterbacks. Akron's Getsy has a huge edge over Grutza.
PUT A LITTLE ZIP IN YOUR STEP 27-20!
8
New Mexico St over Idaho by 1
Leave me out of this.
Boise St over LA Tech by 35
Fresno St over Utah St by 27
over Kansas St by 2
Would love to use K-State here but Ron Prince
has gone to a freshman QB. No thanks.
Nicky's Dynamite Dog
CANNON SHOCK
3* PITTSBURGH over San Diego by 7
For the fourth straight week, I go to the best dog on the board
for my Shocker. There's no questioning Pittsburgh's pedigree.
The Steelers have won 16 out of their last 19 road games, the
best road record in the NFL since September of 2004, and have
covered 14 of those 19 despite being favored in 11 of them. We
do question San Diego's pedigree. All of the recent positive
numbers posted by the Chargers were with Drew Brees at QB.
Philip Rivers, who will certainly be a force in this league down
the road, has only beaten Oakland and Tennessee, the two
worst teams in the NFL. If you catch the Steelers flat, you can
beat them but there's no chance of that happening here. Off
back-to-back losses to Cincinnati and Jacksonville, the
Burghers will be an intensity machine here. Pittsburgh a dog?
IT'S LIKE STEELING 20-13!
CANNON SHOT
3* JACKSONVILLE over NY Jets by 16
Like Pittsburgh, Jacksonville is another team off back-to-back
tough losses with something to prove this week. With the Jets
coming off that draining and excruciating loss to Indianapolis,
a game that followed a thrilling division road win at Buffalo
that followed a just-miss comeback attempt against New
England, they could be out of gas here. Jacksonville excels
(10-0 SU and 8-2 ATS under Del Rio) at home against .500 or
less non-division teams allowing an average of 13 points per
game in those ten wins. The Jets won't like hearing that. They
are 0-28 ATS in their last 28 SU losses to non-division foes who
are off back-to-back losses. We respect Eric Mangini for
making his team competitive in such a short time, but this is
the wrong week to leave on a Jet plane.
XKE'S 23-7!
Another Salvo from Nick's big gun
9
NFL SMOKE SCREEN
Indianapolis over Tennessee by 17
No way would we lay 18 points in an NFL game, not even if we
knew the final score. Indianapolis cannot be interested in this
game and will certainly take the opportunity to rest several of
its banged up players. Pretend this game doesn't exist.
NY Giants over Washington by 4
No question who needs this game more and the fallout from
the internal brouhaha following that 35-0 deficit in Seattle
certainly gives the Giants the motivational edge. Redskins
could get caught in a Giant upheaval today. Still, Mark Brunell
is on fire and sometimes he stays hot for a long time.
Minnesota over Detroit by 7
As bad as the Lions are at least they can score once in a while.
The Vikings are a .500 team that has scored two offensive
touchdowns in its last 13 quarters of play. Hardly an endorsement
for a seven-point favorite, even when the opponent has
won only four of its last 30 division road games.
New Orleans over Tampa Bay by 6
Give the Saints credit. They came off the most emotional game
in franchise history, went to one of the toughest venues in the
league and lost by just three. Sure, an 86-yard TD pass with
30 seconds left got the cover, but it was a cover. Nevertheless,
we lean to Tampa, the NFL's most desperate team in this one.
St Louis over Green Bay by 1
Can't take the Rams and their 1-10 ATS mark in their last 11
road games against non-division NFC teams. In fact, if we find
out for sure about some of the lingering Packer injuries, we
might take another trip on the #4 train.
New England over Miami by 7
Any handicapper worth his salt knows that Miami is the play
in this game. We know it, too, but Miami has Minnesota
disease. The Dolphins got one TD against Houston, one the
week before against Tennessee and none the week before that
against Buffalo. We just can't do it.
Chicago over Buffalo by 10
Since 1991, the Bears have been favored by more than ten
points twice (they didn't cover either time) and only once,
against the awful 49ers last year, since 1995. We're not
interested in laying doubles with a team that never does. Still,
Losman faces the toughest test of his career in Soldier Field.
Carolina over Cleveland by 8
The Panthers just can't cover as home chalk (6-16 ATS last 22
tries). Even when they play well enough to cover for 59 and a
half minutes, that other thirty seconds brings them down.
However, if Cleveland gets behind 21-3 like it did last week in
Oakland, don't tear up your Panther ticket.
Kansas City over Arizona by 1
Denny Green's dismay over his offense came to a head last
week after Zona got whipped in Atlanta. We've watched this
guy in action for a long time and we know that he will get his
team to play better this week. Zona a live home dog.
San Francisco over Oakland by 3
Even with no players, Frisco has a better chance of winning
this game than the disgruntled Raiders. Al Davis probably
needs to step down and, until he does, we'll avoid lining up on
his side. Niners are still trying, despite their injury woes.
Philadelphia over Dallas by 3
Could be the most ballyhooed Sunday Night game in NFL
history, all because of one bozo. As much as Owens might be
inspired, the Eagles will have 50 guys just as motivated.
Philadelphia's injury situation is critical. We'll have to wait.
Denver over Baltimore by 4
Let's look at Baltimore's wins. Week one over a Tampa team
that is still looking for its first victory. Week two over an
Oakland team in the same situation. Week three over Cleveland,
who has only beaten Oakland. Week four, on the last
play of the game, over San Diego who has only beaten Oakland
and Tennessee. Do you see where we're going with this?
posted by phantom
Oct. 5 2006 8:30pm -
0 likes
mti..killer sports
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
5-Star NY Giants -4 over Washingtonâ€â€In each of the last three
seasons, the Giants won and covered the first match-up of the
season and the Redskins won and covered the second. Last season,
the Giants hammered Washington 36-0 laying 1’ at home and we
look for a similar result here.
The main reasoning can be found in this week’s NFL system of the
week, presented by Killersports.com, on page 6 of this issue.
The system involves a team that came from behind to win as an
underdog vs a non-divisional opponent the previous week. Last week
the Redskins were a 2’ point home dog vs the Jaguars. Washington
trailed 17-13 at the half, but came back to win 36-30 in overtime.
The system states, “The League is 0-20 ATS on the road when
they beat a non-divisional opponent as a dog of less than ten points,
at home, last week, despite the fact that they were trailing at the half.
The league has fallen short of the linesmakers’ expectations by an
average of 9.7 ppg in this situation.
It only takes a moment to work out what is happening. When a
team comes from behind to win as a dog, they can be tapped out and
unable to put forth the effort they need to win in the NFL.
The league is only 1-19 straight up in this situation, losing by an
average of 12.6 ppg. The Giants are not strictly a finesse team. They
are off their bye, they are fresh and they are 1-2 and need to get back
in the division race. Here they catch the Redskins in a very vulnerable
spot and they will hammer Tiki Barber at them and throw short passes
to Shockey so he can rattle some of the tired Washington defenders.
We expect the Redskins to effective throw in the towel in the second
half vs an energized Giants team. It has work in each of the past three
seasons as NY has won and covered the first of the two compulsory
divisional match-ups and the Redskins have won and covered the
revenge match-up. This year, the conditions are ripe for it to happen
again. In fact, the Giants are 6-0 ATS since the start of the 2004 season
when facing any divisional opponent for the first time of the season,
covering by an average of 12.5 ppg.
In addition to this system, we have the fact that the Redskins are 0-7
ATS (-11.6 ppg) since week 16, 2000 as a dog when they are 500.
We look for the Giants to completely dominate the time of possession
and keep the exhausted ‘Skins defense on the field. The Giants’
defense pin their ears back and blitz the relatively immobile Brunell.
This one has blowout written all over it. We expect Todd Collins to
make an appearance late in the game for the Redskins as the Giants
get their ticket punched as a contender in the NFC East.
MTi’s FORECAST: NY GIANTS 27 Washington 3
3-Star JACKSONVILLE -7 over NY Jetsâ€â€The Jets match-up well
vs the Colts simply because they have an excellent passing game.,
the Colts do not have a ball-control offense, which means that their
opponent will get plenty of possessions. We expect that the Jaguars will
not give the Jets many possessions and that the Jaguars will go on long
drives that chew up the clock. The Jets are actually getting praise for their
close loss vs the Colts. However, they got a kickoff return for a TD and
then, when the game was on the line with 2:00 left, offered virtually no
resistance and let the Colts march down the field to win 31-28.
This result does not offer evidence to play on the Jets here. In
fact, it offers compelling evidence to play against them. The Jets
are The Jets are 0-9 ATS since the start of the 2003 season as a dog
when they had fewer than ten incompletions last week. In addition,
the Jets are 0-6 ATS (-7.6 ppg) since the start of the 2005 season as
a 7+ dog after a straight up loss, losing straight up by an average of
17 points per game.
MTi’s Side Play of the Week
In addition, we have last week’s NFL System of the Week active
here. The Jaguars have their bye next week and the league is 19-1
ATS since the divisional realignment when they are a laying more
than 6 points and they have their bye next week (see the week 4 issue
for a complete game listing and analysis of this system). Of course,
the Jaguars qualify here. Jacksonville will not want to spend their bye
week under 500 for the season. We look for an all-out 110% effort
from the Jaguars before their bye week.
Remember, the Jacksonville defense held Peyton Manning to 14-
of-31 passing and only 14 points on offense. The Jets play a similar
style to the Colts, and we expect the Jaguars defense to be successful
against the Jets offense. Lay the TD.
MTi’s FORECAST: JACKSONVILLE 24 NY Jets 10
MTi’s Totals Play of the Week
4-Star Kansas City at Arizona OVER 41â€â€We we have one of our
favorite team trends working. In involves the Kansas City Chiefs
following a successful game passing the ball. Last week Damon Huard
was 18-of-23 and had two TDs and no interceptions. The Chiefs are
The Chiefs are 13-0 OU since week 4, 2002 when they had fewer
than ten incompletions last week, eclipsing the OU line by an average
of 14.6 ppg! This team trend was active twice last season. In the first,
the Chiefs and Broncos played to a 31-27 final with the OU line at
45’. The score at the half was 21-21, so going over 45’ wasn’t much of
a sweat. In the second, the Cowboys edged the Chiefs 31-28 with the
OU line at 44. Both games went over by double digits. In the previous
13 qualifying games the average OU line was 47.1â€â€and they went
over this number by an average of more than two TDs! What’s this
line doing at 41? Going up, that’s what. Get in early.
Of course, we have more than this. Schedule-wise, we note that the
Chiefs are 8-0 OU on the road on grass vs a non-divisional opponent
before playing on the road, going over by an average of 15.7 ppg. This
trend is featured at the bottom of the facing page, where we can see
that every game went over by at least a TD.
Yes the Chiefs defense had a shut out last week, but this doesn’t
mean that they should go under here. In fact, the Chiefs are 6-0 OU
since week 4, 2000 on the road after they allowed at least 10 points
fewer than their season-to-date average, going over by an average of
15.8 ppg.
Turning our attention to the Cardinals, we find that they are 9-0
OU (9.6 ppg) since week 11, 2003 when their DPS was negative in
their last three games. Another way of saying this is that the Cardinals
are 9-0 OU (9.6 ppg) since week 11, 2003 when they scored fewer
points than expected in each of their last three games. For more on
DPS, see the small article on page 5 of this issue.
This trend is much stronger when the Cardinals are at home.
Arizona is 6-0 OU since week 11, 2001 at home when their DPS
was negative in their last three games, going over by a whopping
16.7 ppg.
It’s worthwhile to pause in our handicapping and remark thatâ€â€as
far as we know MTi Sports Forecasting is the only handicapping service
that routinely quotes the average margin for trends and systems.
To other handicappers, a 10-0 trends with a margin of 2.1 points is
better than an 8-0 trend with a margin of, say, 15.7 ppg. Of course
the margin is crucial.
Continuing, we note further that the Cardinals are 7-0 OU (7.6
ppg) when they are off a loss and facing any team with more wins.
This one is not a 5-Star because of the unknown quarterback situation
of both these teams and the fact that the Chiefs have a new head
coach. We will be monitoring the Arizona quarterback situation and
the OU line in this game closely throughout the week. Right now, it
looks like a strong OVER play.
MTi’s FORECAST: Kansas City 28 ARIZONA 24 OVER
MTi’s Teaser Play of the Week
MTi’s Newsletter Teaser won again last week, making them 3-0
over the last three weeks. MTi’s late teasers, which are released
late Saturday Night on KillerCappers.com, went a perfect 8-0 last
week and their six-point, two-team teasers have been perfect all
season, going 13-0. Both teaser packages are always guaranteed to be
This week’s newsletter teaser involves three teaser trends that
combine to 78-0. They are:
The Panthers are 29-0 ATSp10 when facing a team that has thrown
an average of 1.25+ interceptions per game season-to-date
The Bears are 25-0 ATSp10 when facing a team that has an average
of fewer than 18 completions per game season-to-date
The Patriots are 24-0 ATSp10 as a home favorite by at least 7
points
This makes MTi’s 3-Team, 10-Point Teaser of the Week:
4-Star Carolina +1, Chicago -1’ and New England Pick
*ATSp10 means against the spread plus ten points. That is, when
used in a ten-point teaser.
posted by phantom
Oct. 5 2006 8:32pm -
0 likes
HQ Report
NCAA FOOTBALL SELECTION October 7th 2006
5* OREGON (+) over California
3* Oklahoma St over Kansas State by 10
3* Rice over Tulane by 11
3* Michigan over Michigan State by 25
3* Colorado State over UNLV by 22
3* Colorado over Baylor by 12
3* Western Michigan over Ohio U by 11
3* Washington (+) over USC
3* South Florida over Connecticut by 13
HQ UNDERDOG PLAY of the WEEK:
MISSOURI (+) over Texas Tech
TOTAL RECALL OVER / UNDER:
NEBRASKA versus IOWA STATE PLAY OVER
A.T.S. (Angles, Trends & Systems):
Toledo over Central Michigan
The Rockets are 13-3 ATS in their first MAC home game of the season
NFL FOOTBALL SELECTIONS
5* COLTS over Titans by 27
Total Recall Over / Under:
Rams versus Packers PLAY OVER
Super System Line: Saints over Buc's
posted by phantom
Oct. 5 2006 8:35pm -
0 likes
Greg Roberts:
YOUR 5* HI-ROLLER FOOTBALL SELECTION IS:
HAWAII -10' VS. NEVADA
The home team has won and covered 6 straight between these 2 due the different home-road venues of these teams. The Rainbow Warriors play this with 38-28 revenge from last year against a Wolfpack team that's only covered 1 of their last 9 as a road underdog. This will be Jerry Glanville's 2nd look at the Nevada 'pistol' offense so I look for him to slow this unit while Nevada has no answers for Hawaii QB Colt Bennan. The Warriors have covered all 3 lined games this year by an amazing 32 points despite being minus 8 in turnovers. If they take care of the ball here they get the easy win.
YOUR 5* HI-ROLLER FOOTBALL SELECTION IS:
HAWAII RAINBOW WARRIORS -10'
posted by phantom
Oct. 5 2006 9:40pm -
0 likes
Greg Roberts:
YOUR 6* MVP FOOTBALL SELECTION IS:
COLORADO -4' VS. BAYLOR
Don't look for the Bears to put up many points here with their new 'Air Raid' offense still struggling and their run game one of the worst in the nation. Buffaloes have one of the best defenses in the Big 12 and are hungry for a win. Colorado has gotten better by the week under Dan Hawkins having actually outgained it's last 2 opponents by a combined 200 yards (those opponents were undefeated Georgia and Missouri). Throw in some 42-30 revenge from last year and we have the makings of a comfortable Buffaloes win.
YOUR 6* MVP FOOTBALL SELECTION IS:
colorado buffaloes -4'
posted by phantom
Oct. 5 2006 9:40pm -
0 likes
ROCKYS WINNERS CIRCLE OVER/UNDERS
OVER & UNDER TOTALS
strictly computerized ~
WEEK ENDING OCTOBER 9
TOP TOTAL OF WEEK - $9
WISCONSIN OVER 44
LOUISVILLE OVER 52
OHIO STATE OVER 50.5
BYU UNDER 47.5
OREGON STATE OVER 52
CINCINNATI UNDER 44
SOUTH FLORIDA UNDER 39
GEORGIA UNDER 37.5
NFL
TOTAL OF WEEK - $9
GIANTS - WASHINGTON UNDER 44
TAMPA - NEW ORLEANS UNDER 35
ST LOUIS - GREEN BAY OVER 47
MIAMI - NEW ENGLAND UNDER 38
KC - ARIZONA OVER 39
JETS - JACKSONVILLE OVER 37
SAN DIEGO - PITTSBURGH UNDER 38
FREE TOTALS RESULTS
YEAR TO DATE
NFL (8-2) (+30*)
COLLEGE (21-8) (+85*)
posted by phantom
Oct. 5 2006 9:41pm -
0 likes
Gator news for today
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NCAA FOOTBALL 70% Super Situations
Each week we provide our Gator Report Subscribers with our NCAA and NFL 70% Super Situations. Out of the 1,000's of situations that are in the data base we have developed a formula that gives us the most powerful situations for that week and those are the situations we use in our Gator Report. Here are this week's College Football 70% Super Situations:
Play Under - All teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 - solid team - outgaining their opponents by 75 or more yards/game, after outgaining opp by 225 or more total yards in their previous game. (47-19 over the last 5 seasons.) (71.2%) PLAY: Northwestern / Wisconsin UNDER 44.5
Play Under - All teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 - after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a winning team. (32-5 over the last 5 seasons.) (86.5%) PLAY: Oklahoma State / Kansas State UNDER 45
Play Under - All teams where the total is 42 or less - in a game involving two excellent defensive teams (<=280 YPG), in conference games. (51-20 since 1992.) (71.8%) PLAY: LSU / Florida UNDER 39.5
Play On - All teams where the line is +3 to -3 after a win by 17 or more points against opponent after a loss by 6 or less points. (49-18 since 1992.) (73.1%) PLAY: Idaho -Even
Play Against - Favorites of 3.5 to 10 points after having won 2 out of their last 3 games, a good team (60% to 80%) playing a marginal winning team (51% to 60%). (34-10 over the last 10 seasons.) (77.3%) PLAY: Kentucky +7
Play Against - Any team - off a road blowout win by 28 points or more, a top-level team (>= 80%) playing a good team (60% to 80%). (38-12 over the last 10 seasons.) (76%) PLAY: California -5.5
Play On - A home team - dominant team (outgain opp. by 1.2+ YPP) against an average team (+/- 0.6 YPP), after gaining 6.75 or more yards/play in 2 consecutive games. (32-9 since 1992.) (78%) PLAY: Hawaii -8
steam sheet
Northwestern is 8-1 ATS last nine vs Wisconsin.
Illinois has ten straight wins here vs Indiana (Avg mgn - 14).
Wake Forest is 13-3 ATS last 16 against Clemson.
Kansas St has won and covered 9 of the last 12 vs Okie St.
BYU is 7-2 SU and ATS in the last 9 vs San Diego St.
Florida is 14-4 SU vs LSU (but 1-3 last four).
Oregon St has 6 straight covers vs Washington St.
Nebraska has beaten Iowa St in 23 of the last 26 meetings.
UAB has 6 straight wins and covers vs Memphis.
Vandy has covered seven in a row against Ole Miss.
Toledo is 10-1 SU last 11 against Central Michigan.
Oregon has won and covered 9 of the last 11 vs Cal.
New Mexico is 6-0 SU in the last 6 meetings with Wyoming.
Hawaii - The home team is 6-0 SU and ATS in this series
posted by phantom
Oct. 5 2006 9:51pm -
0 likes
Friday, October 6th
Louisville at Middle Tennessee State, 7:30 EST ESPN2
Louisville: 10-2 ATS off a road game
Mid Tenn State: 1-5 ATS off a win by 17+ points
** (TC) Denotes Time Change
Saturday, October 7th
Northwestern at Wisconsin, 12:00 EST
Northwestern: 5-1 ATS off a conference loss
Wisconsin: 7-0 Under off a road win
Purdue at Iowa, 12:00 EST ESPNU
Purdue: 1-9 ATS in October
Iowa: 26-12 ATS off an Over
Pittsburgh at Syracuse, 12:00 EST
Pittsburgh: 11-24 ATS off an Over
Syracuse: 6-0 ATS at home off a win
Indiana at Illinois, 12:00 EST
Indiana: 15-5 Over away off a home game
Illinois: 11-26 ATS off an Under
Clemson at Wake Forest, 12:00 EST ESPN
Clemson: 8-0 ATS away off BB games allowing 275 or less total yards
Wake Forest: 7-23 ATS at home off a home game
North Carolina at Miami FL, 12:00 EST
North Carolina: 6-0 Over as an underdog of 10.5 to 21 points
Miami FL: 1-6 ATS after winning 2 of their last 3 games
(TC) Maryland at Georgia Tech, 3:30 EST ESPNU
Maryland: 4-13 ATS off a win by 6 points or less
Georgia Tech: 9-0 ATS off an underdog win by 10+ points
(TC) Bowling Green at Ohio State, 3:30 EST
Bowling Green: 5-1 Over after committing 1 or 0 turnovers
Ohio State: 9-0 ATS off BB ATS wins
Kent State at Temple, 1:00 EST
Kent State: 8-2 ATS after scoring 37+ points
Temple: 2-13 ATS vs. MAC opponents
Ball State at Buffalo, 1:00 EST
Ball State: 6-0 ATS off an Over
Buffalo: 7-0 Under at home after gaining 100 or less rushing yards
(TC) Arkansas at Auburn, 12:00 EST CBS
Arkansas: 11-3 Under off BB ATS losses
Auburn: 9-0 ATS in October
(TC) Duke at Alabama, 7:00 EST
Duke: 1-10 ATS off an ATS loss
Alabama: 11-3 Under in home games
(TC) Oklahoma State at Kansas State, 3:30 EST
Oklahoma State: 6-1 Over after winning 3 of their last 4 games
Kansas State: 26-12 ATS off a conference loss
(TC) Texas A&M at Kansas, 12:00 EST FSN
Texas A&M: 8-0 Over off an Over
Kansas: 21-40 ATS after losing 2 of their last 3 games
San Diego State at BYU, 2:00 EST
San Diego State: 16-5 ATS away off a road loss
BYU: 15-29 ATS off a road win
Rice at Tulane, 2:00 EST
Rice: 10-2 ATS off a road win by 10+ points
Tulane: 0-7 ATS off BB Overs
Navy at Air Force, 2:00 EST CSTV
Navy: 8-0 ATS with a line of +3 to -3
Air Force: 25-12 Under in the first half of the season
Stanford at Notre Dame, 2:30 EST NBC
Stanford: 8-2 Under off 3+ ATS losses
Notre Dame: 9-24 ATS after winning 4 of their last 5 games
West Virginia at Mississippi State, 2:30 EST
West Virginia: 7-0 ATS after allowing 14 points or less
Mississippi State: 5-1 Under after committing 1 or 0 turnovers
LSU at Florida, 3:30 EST CBS
LSU: 15-4 ATS away after winning 2 of their last 3 games
Florida: 10-2 Under at home first half of the season
(TC) Washington State at Oregon State, 7:00 EST
Washington State: 6-0 Over after forcing 1 or 0 turnovers
Oregon State: 0-7 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points
(TC) Arizona at UCLA, 7:00 EST FSN
Arizona: 33-15 Under after forcing 1 or 0 turnovers
UCLA: 6-1 ATS after winning 2 of their last 3 games
Washington at USC, 3:30 EST FSN
Washington: 0-7 ATS away off 3+ ATS wins
USC: 26-13 ATS off BB conference wins
Oklahoma at Texas, 3:30 EST ABC
Oklahoma: 10-22 ATS off BB non-conference games
Texas: 10-2 ATS off 3+ straight up wins
(TC) Penn State at Minnesota, 12:00 EST ESPN2
Penn State: 8-1 ATS after the first month of the season
Minnesota: 11-2 Over at home off a home game
Michigan State at Michigan, 4:30 EST ESPN
Michigan State: 10-2 Over as an underdog
Michigan: 6-15 ATS as a favorite
(TC) UNLV at Colorado State, 5:30 EST
UNLV: 8-20 ATS off an Under
Colorado State: 39-20 ATS in October
New Mexico State at Idaho, 5:00 EST
New Mexico State: 0-8 ATS vs. conference opponents
Idaho: 4-1 Over after forcing 3+ turnovers
Virginia at East Carolina, 6:00 EST CSTV
Virginia: 8-19 ATS away in October
East Carolina: 9-2 ATS off an ATS win
(TC) Akron at Cincinnati, 3:30 EST
Akron: 5-1 Under off a road loss
Cincinnati: 8-2 ATS as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points
South Carolina at Kentucky, 7:00 EST ESPN2
South Carolina: 6-1 Under as a road favorite
Kentucky: 5-1 ATS off a home win
(TC) Baylor at Colorado, 3:30 EST
Baylor: 1-6 ATS as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points
Colorado: 7-1 ATS off BB road games
(TC) Nebraska at Iowa State, 8:00 EST ABC
Nebraska: 13-1 ATS after allowing 325+ passing yards
Iowa State: 1-12 ATS off BB games having 100 or less rushing yards
Memphis at UAB, 7:00 EST ESPN2
Memphis: 6-0 ATS away off a straight up loss
UAB: 15-5 ATS off BB non-conference games
Missouri at Texas Tech, 7:00 EST
Missouri: 18-6 Over after forcing 1 or 0 turnovers
Texas Tech: 14-4 ATS as a home favorite of 7 points or less
(TC) Western Michigan at Ohio U, 12:00 EST
Western Michigan: 14-5 ATS after allowing 14 or less points
Ohio U: 0-7 ATS off an Under
(TC) Vanderbilt at Mississippi, 2:00 EST
Vanderbilt: 6-0 ATS in road games
Mississippi: 0-6 ATS off a conference loss
Central Michigan at Toledo, 7:00 EST ESPNU
Central Michigan: 4-14 ATS away after allowing 37+ points
Toledo: 16-3 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points
Connecticut at South Florida, 7:00 EST
Connecticut: 0-6 ATS as a road underdog
South Florida: 8-0 Under at home off a home game
(TC) Tennessee at Georgia, 7:45 EST ESPN
Tennessee: 12-2 ATS as a road favorite of 7 points or less
Georgia: 16-5 Under after allowing 9 points or less
Oregon at California, 8:00 EST ABC
Oregon: 6-0 ATS off a road conference win
California: 8-1 Under off BB games scoring 31+ points
Wyoming at New Mexico, 8:00 EST
Wyoming: 7-0 Over off BB losses
New Mexico: 20-8 ATS off an Under
Louisiana Tech at Boise State, 8:00 EST
Louisiana Tech: 2-11 ATS as a road underdog
Boise State: 27-7 ATS off 4+ wins
Fresno State at Utah State, 8:00 EST
Fresno State: 5-1 ATS as a favorite of 21.5 to 31 points
Utah State: 1-5 ATS off BB losses by 17+ points
SMU at UTEP, 9:00 EST
SMU: 13-4 Under off a conference game
UTEP: 5-1 ATS off a SU win / ATS loss
Nevada at Hawaii, 11:59 EST
Nevada: 1-8 ATS as a road underdog
Hawaii: 6-0 ATS as a favorite
Added Games:
Florida International at North Texas, 7:00 EST
Florida Int: 4-0 ATS off a conference loss
North Texas: 3-11 ATS off an Under
Louisiana Lafayette at Houston, 7:00 EST
LA Lafayette: 4-0 ATS as an underdog of 10.5 to 21 points
Houston: 1-5 ATS after scoring 14 points or less
Louisiana Monroe at Arkansas State, 7:00 EST
LA Monroe: 5-1 ATS as a road underdog of 7 points or less
Arkansas State: 8-2 Under in home games
** (TC) Denotes Time Change
Sunday, October 8th
Northern Illinois at Miami OH, 8:00 EST ESPN
Northern Illinois: 27-12 ATS in Weeks 5 through 9
Miami OH: 1-8 ATS as an underdog
** (TC) Denotes Time Change
posted by phantom
Oct. 6 2006 3:14pm -
0 likes
NCAA INJURY REPORT
Air Force
Position Name Injury Status
DE Noah Garguile Knee Questionable Sat. vs Navy. 10/3
DE Gilberto Perez Knee Questionable Sat. vs Navy. 10/3
Alabama
Position Name Injury Status
RB Glen Coffee Knee Questionable Sat. vs Duke. 10/3
Arizona
Position Name Injury Status
DT Paul Philipp Knee Questionable Sat. vs U.C.L.A. 10/3
Arizona St
Position Name Injury Status
DE Loren Howard Quad Questionable Sat. U.S.C. 10/3
Arkansas
Position Name Injury Status
CB Darrius Vinnett Knee Probable Sat. vs Auburn. 10/3
LB Mark Bonner Shoulder Questionable Sat. vs Auburn. 10/3
LB Ryan Powers Hamstring Questionable Sat. vs Auburn. 10/3
DT Marcus Harrison Knee Questionable Sat. vs Auburn. 10/3
CB Jerell Norton Ankle Doubtful Sat. vs Auburn. 10/3
Arkansas St
Position Name Injury Status
DE Brandon Rollins Knee Expected to miss remainder of season. 10/3
FB Oren O'Neal Knee Sidelined indefinitely. 9/28
RB Chris Easley Torn Ligament Expected to miss entire season. 9/4
Army
Position Name Injury Status
CB Darren Newson Academics Sidelined indefinitely. 9/4
DT Travis Prkryl Knee Questionable Sat. vs V.M.I. 10/3
S Markenson Pierre Ankle Questionable Sat. vs. V.M.I.
S Jordan Murray Hamstring Questionable Sat. vs V.M.I. 10/3
DE Brandon Thompson Shoulder Questionable Sat. vs V.M.I. 10/3
RB Ricky Lay Undisclosed Questionble Sat. vs V.M.I. 10/3
Auburn
Position Name Injury Status
C Joe Cope Knee Expected to miss 2-4 weeks. 10/3
LB Tray Blackmon Suspension Suspended indefinitely. 9/3
TE Cole Bennett Ankle Sidelined indefinitely. 9/19
CB Jonathan Wilhite Knee Questionable Sat. vs Arkansas. 10/3
UAB
Position Name Injury Status
DT Jason Hamlin Knee Questionable Sat. vs Memphis. 10/3
FB Taylor Ownbey Knee Questionable Sat. vs. Memphis. 10/3
LB Gerod Condry Hamstring Questionable Sat. vs. Memphis. 10/3
QB Chris Williams Concussion Probable Sat. vs Memphis. 10/3
WR Norris Drinkard Knee Questionable Sat. vs Memphis. 10/3
LB Orlandus King Knee Questionable Sat. vs Memphis. 10/3
OT Julius Wilson Knee Questionable Sat. vs Memphis. 10/3
TE Jordan Erwin Knee Questionable Sat. vs Memphis. 10/3
CB Brandon Register Shoulder Questionable Sat. vs Memphis. 10/3
SN Chris Barrett Knee Will miss remainder of season. 9/28
QB Sam Hunt Ankle Expected to miss Sat. vs Memphis. 10/3
Baylor
Position Name Injury Status
DE LeQuantum McDonald Leg Out indefinitely 9/5
OL Yancy Boatner Knee Questionable Sat. vs Colorado. 10/3
WR Carl Sims Hamstring Questionable Sat. vs Colorado. 10/3
Boise St
Position Name Injury Status
OL Ryan Keating Broken Leg Expected to miss remainder of season. 10/3
OL Pete Cavender Achilles Out for the season. 9/4
LB Michael Altieri Knee Will miss remainder of season 9/12
Boston College
Position Name Injury Status
S Ryan Glasper Hip Sidelined indefinitely. 9/3
DE Jim Ramella Shoulder Expected to miss the season. 8/31
WR Brandon Robinson Concussion Questionable (10/12) vs Virginia Tech. 10/3
Bowling Green
Position Name Injury Status
CB P.J. Mahone Shoulder Questionable Sat. vs Ohio State. 10/3
DT Nicholas Davis Undisclosed. Questionable Sat. vs Ohio State. 10/3
BYU
Position Name Injury Status
OL Eddie Keele ACL Will miss remainder of season. 9/28
Buffalo
Position Name Injury Status
QB Stewart Sampsel Elbow Sidelined indefinitely. 9/22
RB Joe Cerminara Shoulder Expected to miss season. 9/3
DE Andre Smith Knee Questionable Sat. vs. Ball State. 10/3
P/K Gerry Mcgroarty Ankle Questionable Sat. vs. Ball State. 10/3
RB Chris McDuffie Arm Expected to miss remainder of season. 9/19
WR Alex Pierre Suspension Questionable Sat. vs. Ball State. 10/3
California
Position Name Injury Status
CB Tim Mixon ACL Will miss the entire season. 8/23
CB Thomas Decoud MCL Expected to miss 2-4 weeks. 9/28
OT Scott Smith Knee Questionable Sat. vs Oregon. 10/3
Cent Florida
Position Name Injury Status
G L.J. Anderson Undisclosed Questionable Wed. vs Marshall. 10/3
CB Travonti Johnson Suspension Elgible to return (10/28) vs Houstion 9/19
Cent Michigan
Position Name Injury Status
LB Barron Miles Knee Out for the season. 9/9
LB Ike Brown Knee Expected to miss 2-3 weeks. 9/22
DE Dan Bazuin Knee Questionable Sat. vs Toledo. 10/3
Cincinnati
Position Name Injury Status
RB Mike Daniels Knee Will miss season. 9/3
Clemson
Position Name Injury Status
LB Tramaine Billie Ankle Sidelined Indefinitely 9/12
LB Anthony Waters Knee Out for the season. 9/4
RB Reggie Merriweather Ankle Questionable Sat. Wake Forest. 10/3
S Michael Hamlin Foot Expected to return Sat. vs Wake Forest. 10/3
Colorado
Position Name Injury Status
C Mark Fenton Broken Fibula Sidelined indefinitely. 10/3
CB Vance Washington Knee Questionable Sat. vs Baylor. 10/3
CB Gardner McKay Ankle Questionable Sat. vs. Baylor. 10/3
Colorado St
Position Name Injury Status
RB Kyle Bell Knee Will miss season. 9/3
WR Dustin Osborn Ankle Questionable Sat. vs U.N.L.V. 10/3
Connecticut
Position Name Injury Status
DE Jason Ward Foot Sidelined indefinitely. 8/31
WR Ellis Gaulden Knee Questionable Sat. vs South Florida. 10/3
C Keith Gray Shoulder Expected to miss remainder of season. 9/26
WR Seth Fogarty Leg/Foot Will miss the season. 9/3
G Donald Thomas Hand Questionable Sat. vs South Florida. 10/3
QB D.J. Hernandez Wrist Questionable Sat. vs South Florida. 10/3
Duke
Position Name Injury Status
QB Zack Asack Suspension Expected to miss the season. 9/5
E Carolina
Position Name Injury Status
C Drew Sutton Ankle Questionable Sat. vs Virgina. 10/3
CB Stacy Walls Knee Questionable Sat. vs. Virginia. 10/3
LB Orlando Farrow Ruptured Achilles Tendon Will miss season. 9/3
DL Brandon Setzer Knee Questionable Sat. vs Virginia. 10/3
TB Dominique Lindsay Knee Questionable Sat. vs Virginia. 10/3
TB Norman Whitley Shoulder Will miss entire season 9/12
DE Shauntae Hunt Knee Questionable Sat. vs Virginia. 10/3
E Michigan
Position Name Injury Status
OL Kevin Minor Knee Questionable (10/14) vs Bowling Green. 10/3
QB Tyler Jones Shoulder Questionable (10/14) vs Bowling Green. 10/3
Florida Int
Position Name Injury Status
OG Ronnie Silva Foot Sidelined indefinitely 9/12
TE Moses Hinton Foot Sidelined indefinitely 9/12
OL Jonas Murrell Suspension Suspended indefinitely. 9/12
Florida
Position Name Injury Status
G Ronnie Wilson Foot Questionable Sat. vs L.S.U. 10/3
LB Jon Demps Torn Knee Ligament Expected to miss entire season. 9/4
LB Aj Jones Foot Expected to miss season. 9/5
WR Percy Harvin Ankle Questionable Sat. vs L.S.U. 10/3
RB Deshawn Wynn Knee Questionable Sat. vs L.S.U. 10/3
Florida St
Position Name Injury Status
LB Anthony Kelly Shoulder Questionable Thur. vs. North Carolina State. 10/3
DE Aaron Jones III Ankle Questionable Thur. vs North Carolina State. 10/3
DT Emmanuel Dunbar Back Questionable Thur. vs. North Carolina State. 10/3
LB Jae Thaxton Concussion Questionable Thur. vs North Carolina State. 10/3
RB Jamaal Edwards Knee Questionable Thur. vs North Carolina State. 10/3
CB Tony Carter Knee Expected to miss 2-4 weeks. 9/27
LB Marcus Ball Knee Expected to miss remainder of season. 9/26
S Anthony Houllis Knee Expected to miss remainder of season. 9/22
DT Paul Griffin Knee Will miss remainder of season 9/15
Fresno St
Position Name Injury Status
C Cole Popovich Hamstring Sidelined indefinitely. 10/3
P Mike Lingua Back Sidelined indefinitely. 9/22
RB Clifton Smith Knee Questionable Sat. vs Utah State. 10/3
Florida Atlantic
Position Name Injury Status
TE Mike Wilds Knee Surgery Will miss season. 9/3
WR Casey McGahee Knee Sidelined indefinitely 9/12
LB Edward Bradwell Pectoral Expected to miss remainder of season 9/15
Georgia
Position Name Injury Status
G Zeb McKinzie Shoulder Sidelined indefinitely. 9/22
QB Joe Tereshinski III Ankle Questionable Sat. vs Tennessee. 10/3
OT Michael Turner Ankle Questionable Sat. vs Tennessee. 10/3
SC Thomas Flowers Foot Will miss remainder of season. 9/26
Hawaii
Position Name Injury Status
WR Jason Ferguson Knee Expected to miss 6-7 weeks. 9/19
WR Ryan Grice-Mullen Ankle Questionable Sat. vs Nevada-Reno. 10/3
DT Fale Laeli Leg Questionable Sat. vs Nevada-Reno. 10/3
LB Tyson Kafentzis Ankle Questionable Sat vs Nevada-Reno. 10/3
Houston
Position Name Injury Status
OT SIrVincent Rogers Knee Will miss remainder of season. 10/3
SS Rocky Schwartz Knee Expected to miss remainder of season. 10/3
OL Mark Kimmey Concussion Questionable Sat. vs. UL-Lafayette. 10/3
OL Sebastian Vollmer Back Questionable Sat. vs UL-Lafayette. 10/3
Idaho
Position Name Injury Status
TE Luke Anderson Knee Questionable Sat. vs New Mexico State. 10/3
CB Reggie Jones Knee Questionable Sat. vs New Mexico State. 10/3
Illinois
Position Name Injury Status
OL Akim Millington Ankle Questionable Sat. vs Indiana. 10/3
Indiana
Position Name Injury Status
OL Chauncey Incarnato Ankle Questionable Sat. vs Illinois. 10/3
RB Demetrius McCray Ankle Questionable Sat. vs Illinois. 10/3
Iowa
Position Name Injury Status
OL Rafael Eubanks Knee Questionable Sat. vs Purdue. 10/3
WR Calvin Davis Achilles Heel Will miss remainder of season. 9/19
DB Devan Moylan Leg Questionable Sat. vs Purdue. 10/3
Iowa St
Position Name Injury Status
DE Kurtis Taylor Knee Expected to miss the season. 8/23
S James Smith Ankle Questionable Sat. vs Nebraska. 10/3
DE Travis Ferguson Shoulder Questionable Sat. vs Nebraska. 10/3
Kansas
Position Name Injury Status
DE John McCoy Suspension Questionable Sat. vs Texas A&M. 10/3
S Darrell Stuckey Ankle Out indefinitely. 9/4
LB James Holt Leg Out indefinitely. 9/4
QB Kerry Meier Shoulder Questionable Sat. vs Texas A&M. 10/3
LB Brandon Duncan Undisclosed Questionable Sat. vs Texas A&M. 10/3
LB Eric Washington Concussion Expected to miss Sat. vs Texas A&M. 10/3
Kansas St
Position Name Injury Status
CB Bryan Baldwin Undisclosed Will miss remainder of season. 10/3
Kent
Position Name Injury Status
QB Michael Machen Shoulder Questionable Sat. vs Army. 10/3
Kentucky
Position Name Injury Status
C Matt McCutchan Ankle Questionable Sat. vs South Carolina. 10/3
C Travis Slaydon Shoulder Sidelined indefinitely 9/12
C Jorge Gonzalez Knee Will miss remainder of season 9/12
G Micah Jones Back Will miss remainder of season. 10/3
T Zach Hennis Shoulder Will miss remainder of season. 10/3
La Tech
Position Name Injury Status
RB William Griffin Hamstring Questionable Sat. vs Boise State. 10/3
TE Anthony Harrison Knee Questionable Sat. vs Boise State. 10/3
Louisville
Position Name Injury Status
DT Adrian Grady Leg Out indefinitely. 9/9
CB Rod Council Ankle Expected to miss 1 month 9/12
LB Abe Brown Shoulder Questionable Fri. vs Middle Tennessee State. 10/3
RB Michael Bush Broken Leg Out for rest of the season. 9/4
RB Sergio Spencer Ankle Expected to miss 1 month. 9/29
QB Brian Brohm Hand Expected to miss 3-4 weeks. 9/17
LSU
Position Name Injury Status
T Brian Johnson Toe Questionable Sat. vs Florida. 10/3
Marshall
Position Name Injury Status
RB Ahmad Bradshaw Foot Questionable Wed. vs Central Florida. 10/3
DT Chris Terrell Academics Sidelined indefinitely 9/5
WR Shawn Lauzon Hip/Back Expected to miss season. 9/3
Maryland
Position Name Injury Status
G Garrick Clig Hamstring Questionable Sat. vs Georgia Tech. 10/3
WR Drew Weatherly Foot Questionable Sat. vs Georgia Tech. 10/3
LB Moses Fokou Shoulder Probable Sat. vs Georgia Tech. 10/3
WR Issiah Williams Arm Probable Sat. vs Georgia Tech. 10/3
T Stephon Heyer Thumb/Knee Questionable Sat. vs Georgia Tech. 10/3
G Donnie Woods Shoulder Questionable Sat. vs Georgia Tech. 10/3
Memphis
Position Name Injury Status
WR Carlton Robinzine Knee Expected to miss remainder of season 9/12
LB Mike Snyder Shoulder Expected to miss remainder of season 9/11
CB Chris Huffman Hamstring Questionable Sat. vs U.A.B. 10/3
QB Will Hudgens Leg Expected to miss remainder of season 9/12
RB Miguel Barnes Suspension Out indefinitely. 9/29
Miami Fl
Position Name Injury Status
CB Rashaun Jones Academics Questionable Sat. vs North Carolina. 10/3
OL Tyrone Byrd Knee Questionable Sat. vs North Carolina. 10/3
WR Ryan Moore Suspension Out indefinitely. 8/31
WR Darnell Jenkins Hamstring Expected to miss 3 weeks. 10/3
S Anthony Reddick Ankle Questionable Sat. vs North Carolina. 10/3
Miami Oh
Position Name Injury Status
QB Mike Kokal Headache Questionable Sat. vs Northern Illinois. 10/3
RB Jimmy Calhoun Knee Will miss remainder of season. 9/12
DT Kevin Samy Bicep Will miss remainder of season 9/12
WR Josh Williams Foot Questionable Northern Illinois. 10/3
Michigan
Position Name Injury Status
OL Steven Schilling Mononucleosis Sidelined indefinitely. 10/3
OL Justin Boren Ankle Questionable Sat. vs Michigan State. 10/3
Michigan St
Position Name Injury Status
QB Drew Stanton Ribs Upgraded to probable Sat. vs Michigan. 10/3
RB Javon Ringer Knee Expected to miss remainder of season. 10/3
G Kenny Shane Back Expected to miss Sat. vs Michigan. 10/3
Mid Tenn St
Position Name Injury Status
WR Patrick Honeycutt Knee Expected to miss the season. 8/23
WR Pierre Ingram Undisclosed Questionable Fri. vs Louisville. 10/3
LB Chance Dunleavy Knee Questionable Fri. vs Louisville. 10/3
WR Jay Robinson Undisclosed Questionable Fri. vs Louisville. 10/3
Minnesota
Position Name Injury Status
RB Gary Russell Academics Expected to miss the season. 8/23
Mississippi
Position Name Injury Status
DT Jeremy Garrett Leg Questionable Sat. vs Vanderbilt. 10/3
OL Darryl Harris Leg Questionable Sat. vs Vanderbilt. 10/3
DT Peria Jerry Leg Questionable Sat. vs Vanderbilt. 10/3
OL David Traxler Undisclosed Questionable Sat. vs Vanderbilt. 10/3
Miss St
Position Name Injury Status
OT Roland Terry Back Questionable Sat. vs. West Virginia. 10/3
RB Brandon Thornton Ankle Questionable Sat. vs West Virginia. 10/3
QB Mike Henig Collarbone Out 6 to 8 weeks. 9/4
RB Derek Ambrose Groin Questionable Sat. vs West Virginia. 10/3
Missouri
Position Name Injury Status
DL Evander Hood Foot Expected to miss 1 month. 10/3
DB Castine Bridges Tooth extraction Questionable Sat. vs Texas Tech. 10/3
UL Monroe
Position Name Injury Status
QB Kinsmon Lancaster Undisclosed Questionable Sat. vs Arkansas State. 10/3
WR Adam Hogan Ribs Questionable Sat. vs Arkansas State. 10/3
OG Joseph Joseph Back Questionable Sat. vs Arkansas State. 10/3
New Mexico St
Position Name Injury Status
RB Justine Buries Knee Will miss remainder of season. 9/19
S Cole Marton Foot Sidelined indefinitely 9/12
No Carolina
Position Name Injury Status
S D.J. Walker Hamstring Probable (10/7) vs Miami-Florida. 9/29
LB Mark Paschal Knee Probable (10/7) vs Miami-Florida. 9/29
TE Richard Quinn Shoulder Sidelined indefinitely. 9/3
S Trimane Goddard Undisclosed Expected to miss the season. 8/29
NC State
Position Name Injury Status
LB James E. Martin II Wrist Sidelined indefinitely. 10/3
C Luke Lathan Concussion Questionable Thur. vs Florida State. 10/3
WR Darrell Blackman Knee Questonable Thur. vs Florida State. 10/3
Northwestern
Position Name Injury Status
QB Mike Kafka Hamstring Missed last Game, "?" Sat. vs Wisconsin. 10/1
Ohio St
Position Name Injury Status
LB Mike D'Andrea Right Knee Surgery Will miss season. 9/3
TE Marcel Frost Suspension Dismissed from the team. 8/23
Oklahoma
Position Name Injury Status
FB Matt Clapp Sprained Ankle Questionable (10/7) vs. Texas. 9/29
OL Jon Cooper Leg Probable (10/7) vs Texas. 9/29
OG J.D. Quinn Suspension Dismissed from the team. 8/23
Oklahoma St
Position Name Injury Status
LB Chris Collins Knee Probable (10/7) vs Kansas State. 9/29
RB Calvin Roberts Head Questionable (10/7) vs Kansas State. 9/29
Rutgers
Position Name Injury Status
CB Leslie Jackman Knee Expected to miss entire season. 9/12
WR Keith Taylor Shoulder Surgery Will miss the season. 9/3
WR Marcus Daniels Groin Will miss the season. 9/5
San Diego St
Position Name Injury Status
QB Darren Mougey Shoulder Expected to miss Sat. vs BYU. 10/01.
San Jose St
Position Name Injury Status
DL Freddy McCutcheon Knee Expected to return (10/14) vs Utah State. 9/29
So Carolina
Position Name Injury Status
LB Cody Wells Ankle Probable
G Kevin Young Shoulder Is expected to miss remainder of season. 9/28
OT Gurminder Thind Foot Is expected to miss remainder of season. 9/28
S Nick Prochak Shoulder Expected to miss entire season. 9/12
DT Marque Hall Knee Expected to miss entire season. 9/12
QB Blake Mitchell Suspension Out indefinitely 9/14
UL Lafayette
Position Name Injury Status
CB Jemarcus Smith Ankle Questionable Sat. vs Houston. 10/3
S Derik Keyes Knee Questionable Sat. vs Houston. 10/3
CB Jarrett Jones Ankle Questionable Sat. vs Houston. 10/3
TCU
Position Name Injury Status
QB Jeff Ballard Shoulder Questionable Thur. vs Utah. 10/3
RB Robert Merrill Back Questionable Thur. vs Utah. 10/3
Toledo
Position Name Injury Status
QB Clint Cochran Undisclosed Questionable Sat. vs C.Mich. 10/01
USC
Position Name Injury Status
WR Chris McFoy Shoulder Out 4-6 weeks. 10/3
WR Dwayne Jarrett Shoulder Questionable Sat. vs Washington. 10/02
Utah
Position Name Injury Status
CB Shaun Harper Wrist Out indefinitely. 9/12
WR Bradon Godfrey Ankle Questionable Thur. vs T.C.U. 10/3
Washington St
Position Name Injury Status
DL Matt Mullinnix Knee Expected to miss the entire season. 9/5
OL Bobby Byrd MCL Sidelined indefinitely 9/20
WR Chris Jordan Knee Sidelined indefinitely 9/20
W Virginia
Position Name Injury Status
DT Doug Slavonic Ankle Questionable (10/7) vs Mississippi State. 9/29
CB Antonio Lewis Knee Probable (10/7) vs Mississippi State. 9/29
DT Johnny Dingle Knee Probable (10/7) vs Mississippi State. 9/29
OL Damien Crissey Sprained Foot Out indefinitely. 9/12
W Michigan
Position Name Injury Status
S Louis Delmas Hip Questionable (10/7) vs Ohio. 9/29
CB E.J. Biggers Ankle Probable (10/7) vs Ohio. 9/29
QB Tim Hiller Knee Expected to miss entire season. 9/3
posted by phantom
Oct. 6 2006 3:16pm -
0 likes
2-minute warning:
10-Dime Consensus Club
Consensus Lock
LOUISVILLE
--------------------------------------
Bobby Maxwell:
400-Unit ALDS Diamond Gem - DETROIT TIGERS
Really don't understand how the Tigers can be such underdogs in this one. They are catching a lot of plus money, playing at home and facing a rapidly aging Randy Johnson who has a huge 5.00 ERA this season even though he did post a 17-11 record.
The Tigers' are sending Kenny Rogers (17-8, 3.84 ERA) to the mound in what is a huge game in this series. Rogers has been strong in Motown with a 7-3 home mark and 3.26 ERA. His last three starts of the season he went 2-1 with a 3.06 ERA. Rogers allowed two earned runs or less in eight of his last 10 starts.
While Rogers did not face the Yankees this season, Johnson met the Tigers twice, once on Aug. 31 and the other on May 29. In his first start he threw 6 2/3 shutout innings, giving up two hits in a 4-0 victory. In August he gave up four runs on four hits in eight innings.
Detroit's huge victory Thursday has given this team momentum and confidence and I don't think Johnson is 100 percent healthy and he will get knocked around tonight. Rogers will deliver a quality outing and the Tigers will put the Yankees on the ropes with a victory in this one.
Play Detroit.
100-Unit ALDS Absolute Lock - OAKLAND A'S
The Twins are on the brink of elimination and they are turning to retiring Brad Radke (12-9, 4.32 ERA) to keep this series going? Big mistake!
Oakland is sending Danny Haren (14-13, 4.12 ERA) to the mound and he has gone 5-7 at home with a 3.75 ERA. Haren faced the Twins three times this season with last two outings being shutout performances. He went six shutout innings in a 2-1 win at home in June and he threw eight shutout innings in a 1-0 victory in Minnesota in September.
Radke faced the A's twice this year, losing 2-1 in June and winning 7-6 in Oakland in April, giving up four runs on six hits in seven innings.
Oakland has all the momentum in this series and the A's will overcome their recent problems of not being able to close out division series games. Play Oakland to get this one with relative ease today.
------------------------------------------
Cris Jordan:
750* OVER Yankees/Tigers
250* LOUISVILLE
--------------------------------------------
Chuck Franklin:
College Football
1500* LOUISVILLE
Even with backup Hunter Cantwell starting in place of Louisville's injured QB Brian Brohm and the Cardinals #1 running back out since week one, this team is rolling to victory each week with confidence. The Cardinals will be 5-0 sfter tonight's game with Cantwell at the helm He has a passer rating of 165 and a 73 completion percentage so far in his new starters role. Since Michael Bush went down its been running by committee for Louisville. 527 yards and eight TD's from George Stripling and Kolby Smith has allowed for a balanced offensive attack. Middle Tenn St already was blown out by Oklahoma this season and will be blown out tonight. And as good as the Louisville offense can be, it is the defense that has been superb, allowing only 10 points a game. This won't ever be close as Louisville wins by at least 6 touchdowns.
Baseball
1500* Home Field Dominator
DETROIT w/Rogers over NY Yankees w/Johnson
Always specify the pitchers as listed!
--------------------------------------------------
Drew Gordon:
1. 200,000* Yankees
1. Yankees - Tempted to take the Tigers with Kenny Rogers? Don't do it... What makes you think tonight is going to be any different for the veteran southpaw, who has a well-documented history of playoff struggles, coupled with struggles against the Yankees as well! That's a double-whammy of trouble for the Tigers and specifically Rogers tonight.
Let me quantify his struggles as best I can:
Rogers is 0-3 with an 8.85 ERA in 9 career playoff outings (5 starts), albeit for 3 different clubs. But it doesn't end there...
Since '94 the Yankees have used him as a whipping boy, going 0-7 with an astronomical 9.21 ERA in 11 starts against them! And with one of the more potent Yankees lineups coming into Comerica tonight... I ask you again, what makes you think this game will be any different?!
True, the Big Unit's herniated disk is of concern, but he beat the Yankees both times he faced them this season, and he can do it again, there's no doubt about it. Look for A-Rod to come out swinging after striking out 3 times in Game 2, after much anticipated griping from fans and ownership, he'll show Rogers and the world why he's A-Rod. Let's not forget Rodrigues is averaging over .500 against Rogers (10 for 19 with 5 dingers)... So if he's going to break out of his funk, it will tonight versus Rogers.
Bottom line, The Yankees get back to what they do best: Beating the Tigers. Because of their offense, an even a somewhat healthy Johnson will be more than enough to get the victory in this Game 3 of their ALDS series.
Take the Yankees behind Johnson over the Tigers in tonight's match up.
----------------------------------------------
Michael Cannon:
3* LOUISVILLE
Lay the points with the Cardinals tonight. Come on now, who are we kidding here debating whether we should take the points with Middle Tennessee State?
The chances of Middle Tennessee staying within the number tonight are about the same as A-Rod getting a clutch hit for the Yankees.
It's not gonna' happen!
Bobby Petrino could care less about sportsmanship and taking it easy on an opponent. You just watch this game tonight, with the Cardinals up comfortably in the second half he'll still be calling deep passes and trying to score. I swear, I get the impression Petrino tries to cover the spread every game.
I'm going to throw some numbers out there to support that. Louisville is 13-3 ATS in its last 16 games laying 20 or more points. They are outscoring their opponents by an average of 34 points per game this year. I don't expect Petrino to let up here tonight.
Middle Tennessee State is 0-11 ATS in their last 11 tries when allowing 28 points or more.
I think it's a pretty safe bet Louisville will score more than 28 tonight, so let's follow that trend.
I know people are going to make a big deal about Louisville playing without their star running back and quarterback, but face it, their 2nd-stringers are better than Middle Tennessee's first team.
Lay the points and enjoy the massacre tonight.
1* YANKEES - 1 1/2 RUN LINE
I have to lay the run and a half here with the Yankees. It's not everyday you hold this lineup to three runs, and I feel an onslaught coming tonight against Kenny Rogers.
The gambler has had zero playoff success over his career. I'm talking 0-3 with an 8.85 ERA in nine career appearances, including five starts.
The Bronx Bombers will send Randy Johnson to the mound, and you're not really sure what you're going to get with him these days, but I'm willing to bet it's going to be better than what Rogers brings tonight.
So play the Yankees on the run line as they crush the Tigers tonight, despite A-Rod's inability to deliver in the clutch.
-------------------------------------------
Rob House:
1,000,000* Non Conference Game of the Month
1,000,000* Louisville Cardinals
You can't go with Middle Tennessee State in this one, you just can't. They are horrible and Louisville will be a national title contender this season. The only reason, the only reason this play is not a higher rated play is because I'm just worried about Louisville taking this team lightly.
If Louisville takes this team seriously, if they play this game the way they should, they will seriously blow this team out and I mean seriously.
I can sit here and go over all the reasons and all the stats and all the trends but why would I do that. You guys already know why we should use Louisville tonight, you don't need me for that.
But here's the truth, if Louisville doesn't take this team lightly they will kill this team. I'm using the better team, we all know that's Louisville. Back the Cardinals here.
500,000* NY Yankees W/ Johnson
-----------------------------------
Sports Gambling Hotline:
MIAMI SERVICE
For Friday, Top-Rated 3* on Oakland. Bonus 2* winner on the Yankees-Tigers game to go OVER the posted total.
CHARLOTTE SERVICE
For Friday night, Top-Rated 3* on Louisville minus the big number
--------------------------------------------
Billy Coleman:
5* New York Yankees -150
3.5* Twins Under 9
posted by phantom
Oct. 6 2006 5:45pm -
0 likes
Tony Stoffo
Arizona U vs. UCLA (NCAAF) - Oct 7, 2006 7:00 PM EDT
Play: Point Spread: -12/-109 UCLA Play Title: 3 Unit Free Play
The Rushing Supremacy System
For years I have turned a great profit on college football using a set of criteria I refer to as The Rushing Supremacy System. The System makes a game a play if it meets these 3 simple rules:
1) The favorite is giving away no more than 21 points.
2) One team averages 100 yards or more rushing coming in than its opponent does.
3) The team that holds a 100-yard rushing advantage also allows fewer yards rushing than its opponent, on average.
In this game UCLA is Averaging 173 yards on the ground, and giving up only 66. While Arizona is only rushing for 20 yards a game, and giving up 153 yards.
Miami Dolphins vs. New England Patriots (NFL) - Oct 8, 2006 1:00 PM EDT
Play: Total: 37.5/-108 Under Play Title: 3 Unit Free Play
After watching the Dolphins offense having major problems moving the ball against the Titans and Texans, I can't see them getting into the end zone here against New England. However with this line so high and the Dolphins having a solid defense the solid value play today is on the Under. With the Dolphins not being able to move the ball at all and the Patriots trying to establish the running game, this game will fly by assuring a low scoring game today.
Larry Ness
Purdue vs. Iowa (NCAAF) - Oct 7, 2006 12:00 PM EDT
Play: Point Spread: -11/100 Iowa Play Title: Larry Ness Free Play
Both Purdue and Iowa opened 2006 at 4-0 but both lost week. Purdue at Notre Dame 35-21 and Iowa at home to No. 1 Ohio State, 38-17. Iowa QB Drew Tate was terrible against the Buckeyes (19-of-41 with three INTs) but expect him to find Purdue's defense, especially its pass D (ranked 116th allowing 291 YPG with 11 TDs), much friendlier. As for Purdue, the loss at South Bend ended the school's seven-game winning streak (going back to the final three games of '05). QB Curtis Painter had 398 yards passing vs the Irish and will enter this game averaging 307.6 YPG through the air while completing 60.3%. However, Iowa's pass D is solid allowing just 175.2 YPG. Purdue has better balance offensively than Iowa, as Kory Sheets has 368 YR / 5.6 YPC and 11 TDs (nine rushing) and Jaycen Taylor has 248 YR (7.8 YPC). Iowa's running game is not nearly as good, averaging just 138.4 YPG and 4.1 YPC. But here's the key stat of the game and it's almost hard to believe. Joe Tiller came to Purdue in 1997 and went 9-3 after taking over a team that had gone 3-8 in 1996. In his 10th year this season, his record at Purdue is 71-44 and has led the Boilermakers to eight bowl games (streak ended LY with a 5-6 mark). However, guess how many times he's won on the road SU as a road underdog? How about NEVER! The Notre Dame loss was the 19th time a Tiller-led Purdue team had failed to win SU as a road underdog. Well Purdue did cover against Notre Dame but Purdue's ATS mark over that 19-game losing streak is almost as pathetic at 4-15! If that's not enough, consider that since going 4-19 in his first two season at Iowa, Kirk Ferentz has taken Iowa to five straight bowls, going 49-18 SU. His team's record at home during that span is 31-4 SU and 26-7 ATS. Lay the points with Iowa.
Tony George
Missouri vs. Texas Tech (NCAAF) - Oct 7, 2006 7:00 PM EDT
Play: Point Spread: 4/102 Missouri Play Title: Saturday NCAA Free Play
Weekend Free Play from Tony George Sports
Missouri @ Texas Tech -4 October 7, 2006
I like the vesting Tigers in this game, as Chad Daniels has done a terrific job of filling the shoes of all world QB Brad Smith (now with the Jets), at quarterback this season, and the Tigers are 5-0 for the first time since 1981. Missou leads the way with a very balanced attack, one of the best defense's by the numbers in Division I right now, and face a Tech team that has not met expectations and struggled in every game they played against a quality opponent, lost to TCU and was outplayed huge last week but snuck out a win at Texas AM. Missou, puts up more ppg than Tech, that is a shocker and Tech ONLY runs the ball for 80 yards a game. More balance, a solid defense and a good QB, not discounting Harrell's numbers for Tech at 15 TD's and 2 picks, but overall the better fundamentals are with the Tigers.
Missouri 33 Texas Tech 30 - The Dog Bites on Saturday in Lubbock
DO NOT FORGET- Undefeated in Big 12 weekly features, OU / Texas this week, plus a Triple Header. 4-1 last weekend in the NCAA and 8-1 overall last weekend, ONE RED HOT CAPPER, click our link and cash in!
New York Jets vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (NFL) - Oct 8, 2006 4:05 PM EDT
Play: Point Spread: 6.5/-102 New York Jets Play Title: Sunday Free NFL
NY Jets +7 @ Jacksonville
A contrarian play here, but Jax is off an OT loss, and are not starting WR Jones in this one, as well as defensive players Stroud and Wiley, who would have attacked this young OL for NY. The Jets have lost 2 games by a a total of 10 points, and those were to the Colts and Pats, 2 of the AFC's best teams, and Pennington is by FAR the best QB in this game and is the 2nd highest rated QB in the NFL right now. The Jets offense without a superior running game only was outyarded by 31 yards against the high powered Colts. The defense of the Jets is no slouch, but in a low scoring game here, which I expect, I'll grab the points with the Jets who will hang around with Pennington's expert play. The Jets MUST stop the run here, bottom line, and I think they can contain it enough to stay in this game.
Jags 24 Jets 21
Catch all my action this weekend. I SWEPT the NFL last week, and went 8-1 overall. I am in sync and expect a MONSTER weekend, join us!
Big Al McMordie
Louisville vs. Middle Tenn St (NCAAF) - Oct 6, 2006 8:00 PM EDT
Play: Point Spread: 29.5/-108 Middle Tenn St Play Title: Big Al's Complimentary Middle Tenn/Louisville Winner.
At 8 pm, our complimentary selection is on the Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders, as we will fade Louisville, who falls into a negative 33% ATS situation. What we want to do is play against any favorite of 21 or more points that is off 3 straight wins and covers as a favorite. Take Middle Tennessee. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
Al McMordie's red-hot in football, as he's won 64% of his football plays over the last 20 days, and is stepping out BIG on Saturday with his College Football Revenge Game of the Month on TV. It's out of a beautiful system that's won 24 straight times since 1996. The 25th winner in a row is right here. Don't miss it.
Matt Fargo
Baylor vs. Colorado (NCAAF) - Oct 7, 2006 3:30 PM EDT
Play: Point Spread: -5/-110 Colorado Play Title:
Colorado has dropped its first five games this season but the Buffaloes have not been getting blown out on the stat sheet. They easily could have defeated Colorado St. and Georgia while last week against Missouri, Colorado outgained the Tigers 373-353 but the problem came down to 4th down executions. The Buffaloes went 0-5 on fourth down conversions that included two failed attempts inside the redzone. They are now back home and this is the game to turn the season around.
Baylor heads out on the road for just the 2nd time this season after defeating Kansas St. over the weekend. Kansas St. outgained the Bears 341-312 but five turnovers, including two inside the Baylor 10-yard line and another at the 24-yard line killed three scoring opportunities. Baylor has a new spread offense this season but the results are not coming in very fast as it has yet to score more than 20 points in any of its four games against 1-A opponents.
Baylor is the worst running team in the Big XII, averaging only 27.4 ypg, nearly 60 yards fewer than the next-highest team, Texas Tech. The Bears are averaging a minuscule 1.5 ypc and have scored one touchdown on the ground this season. It isn’t only due to the fact they have become a pass oriented team. Head coach Guy Morriss wants to average at least 5.0 ypc and they are no where near that and the reason behind is that the offensive line has not been able to block anyone.
Expect the Colorado defense to try and hide some things this week. According to Missouri players, Colorado can thank the Georgia coaching staff for communicating much of the Buffaloes' defensive calls and tendencies to Missouri coaches in the week leading up to the game. While that might seem shady, it’s part of the game and Colorado will have to disguise their looks. The defense has been the strength and will likely play another strong game.
The Colorado offense is finally starting to come around even though it isn’t showing on the scoreboard. Quarterback Bernard Jackson made some of his best plays yet in his fourth career start against the Tigers. Not only do the Buffaloes want to get into the win column, but it’s homecoming in Boulder and they are looking to avenge last seasons’ loss at Baylor, just the second Big XII Conference victory for Baylor since the league was formed. Revenge is sweet and the Buffaloes get into the win column. Play Colorado Buffaloes 1 Unit
Tom Stryker
Clemson vs. Wake Forest (NCAAF) - Oct 7, 2006 12:00 PM EDT
Play: Point Spread: -16.5/-101 Clemson Play Title: Tom Stryker's FREE CFB Play - 10/07
Two things will motivate Clemson on Saturday afternoon.
First, if you take a quick look at the ACC Atlantic Division standings, you'll notice that Wake Forest and NC State sit on top of the throne looking down at the likes of Clemson, Boston College and Florida State. That fact can't be sitting too well with the Tiger Paw. Especially since the Demon Deacons have acquired their 5-0 SU record by beating absolutely no one – Syracuse, Duke, Connecticut, Mississippi and Liberty.
Second, all head coach Tommy Bowden has to do to get Clemson fired up is remind them of what Wake did to them last season. The Demon Deacons rallied for 10 fourth quarter points and upset the Tigers 31-27. To add fuel to the fire, the Tiger Paw stormed back with 33 ticks on the clock left only to be stopped on the Wake three-yard line as time expired. To say that Clemson wants revenge would be an understatement.
At Groves Stadium in Winston-Salem, Wake Forest has posted a dismal 11-28-1 ATS record provided the Demon Deacons enter off a straight up win. If Wake takes the field off a victory of eight points or more, this trend crashes to a shocking 4-17 ATS. The Tigers are the better team and they're itching for a little payback. Take Clemson. Thank you and best of luck, Tom Stryker.
posted by phantom
Oct. 6 2006 5:57pm -
0 likes
RAS "Official Plays" - Week 6 - Two Plays
New Mexico State (pick) at Idaho - 2:00pm Pacific - Game #165-166
Head coach Hal Mumme may have not run the cleanest program at Kentucky but he had more success there than anyone in recent memory. His offenses have always been potent and in his second year at New Mexico State the Aggies currently rank first nationally in total offense at 535ypg. The Aggies have shown significant improvement this year losing by just 6 vs quality opponents UTEP and New Mexico, both of whom beat the Aggies easily last year. This year NMSU out yarded both opponents. New starting QB Chase Holbrook played for Mumme at 1-AA Southeastern Louisiana two years ago before transferring here so he knows the system well. He has completed 67% of his passes and has a 13-to-3 TD/INT ratio in first four games. Former Vanderbilt head coach and Pittsburgh Steeler defensive coordinator Woody Widenhofer is in charge of the defense. This unit still has a ways to go but they are improved from last year when they allowed 38.3ppg. Last season the struggling offense continually put the defense in bad situations and the team had a -23 turnover ratio. With the improvement of the offense, the defense is on the field much less and will continue to improve under Widenhofer.
Dennis Erickson was a great hire for Idaho but he has quite a mess to clean up. The Vandals have horrible facilities and went 11-47 in the previous five seasons. Last week's 41-21 win over a horrible Utah State team was one of the most misleading final scores of the season. Utah State actually had a 14-10 lead and was driving inside the Idaho 10 yard line when a pass was intercepted and returned 98 yards for a touchdown changing the entire complexion of the game. Idaho added a 74 yard fumble return for a touchdown in the second half. The two teams finished with similar total yardage. Idaho's offense has been plagued by a weak offensive line, too many penalties, and suspect decision making by QB Steve Wichman. WR Lee Smith (knee) a starter in three games and fourth on the team in receiving was injured last week and will not play. The defense has been downright awful the past two seasons and this year ranks 112 in total defense, 99th in pass defense, and 100th in pass efficiency defense. Starting CB Reggie Jones has missed last two games and remains uncertain this week. He is listed as a backup on the depth chart. Idaho's starting safety is a true freshman who is second on the team in tackles. The Vandal defense figures to have its hands full and then some this week.
Last year Idaho won at New Mexico State by a point in double overtime. NMSU has improved considerably in the second year of their new systems and have a much more productive QB at the helm. The Aggies should be able to shred right through the Idaho defense. It is unlikely the inconsistent Idaho offense will be able to trade points in this matchup. Idaho's Kibble Dome is given just a 2 point home field advantage by The Gold Sheet, one of the lowest in the country. The Vandals are just 8-14 straight up here since 2001. This could turn into a shootout but expect the Aggies to end up on top.
RAS Official Play: New Mexico State Pk 1 UNIT
Wyoming at New Mexico (+1.5) - 5:00pm Pacific - Game #193-194
Seemingly every season it is easy to write off New Mexico in the early going and this year is no different. The Lobos lost to 1-AA Portland State in their season opener and then lost starting QB Kole McKamey in game two. They went on to win that game vs instate rival NMSU, who is an improved team and followed that up with a decent performance vs #23 Missouri, losing by 10. They then surprised everyone by dominating UTEP 26-13 here in Albuquerque. Last week they played almost evenly on the road with a very good Air Force team. Two costly turnovers gave Air Force 14 points on short drives and they fell 24-7. Senior QB Chris Nelson continues to pick up the new offense under first year coordinator Bob Toledo (former UCLA head coach) and this week will get the services of speedy RB Martelius Epps who won the starting job but has not played yet this season due to injury. The New Mexico defense has really stepped up in last two games. They allowed just 522 combined yards vs the high powered offenses of Air Force and UTEP. Both opponents were held well below their season average.
Wyoming is in the middle of a tough four game losing streak. Their only win this season came vs horrible Utah State. Two of their last four have been road games on the East coast that were lost in overtime including a double overtime loss at Syracuse last week. This will be their third road game in five weeks and first back to back road game situation of the season. The Syracuse game was originally supposed to be a BYE week but was a late addition to their schedule. Redshirt freshman QB Karsten Sween replaced ineffective starter Jacob Doss in the second half last week and has been named the starter for this game. This will be his first career start against an unorthodox blitzing defense that is known for confusing inexperienced quarterbacks. Wyoming already enters the game 113th in the country in sacks allowed as it is. The Cowboy defense has allowed more points than the week before in every game this season (7, 13, 17, 31, 40). On the road is where the defense has historically been at its worst. Wyoming is just 2-10 straight up and 4-8 ATS in last 12 conference road games.
With the exception of last season New Mexico has always performed better in conference play (31-20 ATS since 1999) and in the second half of the season under Rocky Long. This year that should be even more evident as they adjust to a new offensive coordinator and a new QB. It is homecoming week for New Mexico and as of this writing ticket sales have been higher than any other game this season. The Lobos are 6-1 straight up in last seven homecoming games. They have also beaten Wyoming six straight times. The wrong team is favored here. Take the small dog.
RAS Official Play: New Mexico +1.5 1 UNIT
posted by phantom
Oct. 6 2006 5:58pm -
0 likes
Joe Gavazzi's Private Plays
5*s. Florida
3* Pitt
3* Penn St
3*new Mexico St. / Idaho Over
Nfl
4* Philadelphia
3* New England
3* Minnesota
posted by phantom
Oct. 7 2006 3:39am -
0 likes
Doc Sports:
6 Unit Play. #22 Take South Florida -6½ over Connecticut (Saturday 7:00 pm ESPN Gameplan) Revenge Game of the Year Great spot to avenge a loss last year in Storrs as the Bulls went into the freezing temperatures as a seven point favorite and lost straight-up 15-10. This is a night game where heat will play a major role. The Bulls lost their last two games but both came against decent opponents in Rutgers and Kansas. As one looks farther, you will notice they lost by only a combined 8 points. The Bulls will also have extra time to prepare for this game as they played on Friday last week. The Huskies are coming off an embarrassing loss to Navy, were they were toasted for 461 yards on the ground. Being @ home and losing a game by this margin certainly looks like they will not have enough time to regroup and play well in Tampa. South Florida 31, UCONN 17.
5 Unit Play. #42 Take Mississippi State +21 over West Virginia (Saturday 2:30 pm Pay-per view) The #4 team in the land is set to invade Starkville in what many think will be a cakewalk. Not so fast! State is 1-4 on the season, but 3 of their losses came against South Carolina, Auburn, and LSU. Coach Croom will not let these kids give up and expect a solid effort @ Davis Wade Stadium. The Mountaineers played an easy schedule thus far to mass their 4-0 record and they have yet to play a defense as strong as what the Bulldogs bring to the table. This game reminds me a little of 2004, when the Gators came calling as a 24½ point favorite and left Starkville with a 38-31 setback. One of my top scouts called me early this week and stated that this is his top play of this week's college card. I would have to agree and I will call the upset here. Mississippi State 27, West Virginia 24.
5 Unit Play. #84 Take Illinois -8 over Indiana (Saturday 12:00 pm ESPN Gameplan) Coming off a big win last week in East Lansing, the yardage in the game really stuck out for Illinois. They had 252 yards rushing averaging 5.7 yards per attempt. Indiana is a complete mess coming off 4 straight losses against some mediocre teams (Ball State, Southern Illinois, UCONN, & Wisconsin). The Hoosiers are really banged up on the offensive line and they have to shift numerous people into different positions. This is a much bigger game for Illinois as Ron Zook looks to record his second victory in conference and thus taking the program in a positive direction. Might even be worth a few nickels as the Hoosiers have not won @ Illinois since 1979. Illinois 38, Indiana 14.
4 Unit Play. #20 Take Buffalo +4 over Ball State (Saturday 1:00 pm) This is a great spot for a live underdog to win this affair straight-up. The Bulls are coming off a bye week and return to UB Stadium after three straight road games. They lost all three games but that came against strong competition in Bowling Green, Northern Illinois, and Auburn. The Cardinals are coming off a two game home losing streak in which they lost to Northern Illinois and North Dakota State, a 1-AA opponent. The Cardinals have not been able to run the football @ all this season. Buffalo is 0-6 straight-up in homecoming games but has covered five them. Turner Gill needs this to point the program in the right directions and gets it in a big way. Buffalo 35, Ball State 28.
4 Unit Play. #52 Take Colorado -5 over Baylor (Saturday 3:30 pm) The Buffaloes have been one of the biggest disappointments this season and have yet to record a victory. This will be their best chance of the 2006 campaign and they cannot let this one slip away. Baylor has a strong defense but struggles to put points on the board, thus this should give CU an excellent opportunity to focus on their offense and 20+ points should be more then enough to cover this low number. Folsom Field has always been a save haven for this team as they have won 14 of the last 19 games played their.
New Coach Dan Hawkins was expected to bring in a high pace fun to watch offense, but certainly that has yet to take effect. The public is starting to get on his case and he needs to not only win this game but also do it convincingly. Boulder makes a statement @ home in this affair. Colorado 24, Baylor 14.
4 Unit Play. #64 Take Alabama -28½ over Duke (Saturday 7:00 pm ESPN Gameplan) This is truly a matter of David and Goliath, where David will forget to show up. Duke lost last week by a score of 37-0 to a weak Virginia team and now are on the road again against a frustrated Tide outfit. Bama stayed with the Gators last week for three quarters before turnovers finally did them in and allowed for a misleading final score. QB Wilson should be able to get back on track and light up the scoreboard for four quarters. Bama takes on their frustration on the lonely Blue Devils. Alabama 47, Duke 7.
4 Unit Play. #74 Take East Carolina -6½ over Virginia (Saturday 6:00 pm CSTV) Skip Holtz has done a great job with this program and warrants this number as being the favorite against an ACC team. Virginia beat Duke last week by 37 points; however, had only but had only 252 yards of offense. The Cavaliers are averaging only 218 yards per game. QB James Pinkney is a senior and has been a foundation with the program for five years. He will reach the twenties in points and that should be more then enough to cover this one. East Carolina 21, Virginia 10.
posted by phantom
Oct. 7 2006 3:39am -
0 likes
Gold Sheet Super seven ....... Hawaii
posted by phantom
Oct. 7 2006 3:39am -
0 likes
A-Play:
10* OKL, VA, UAB, TN, N MEX
posted by phantom
Oct. 7 2006 3:40am -
0 likes
Big Money:
Texas TecH
posted by phantom
Oct. 7 2006 3:40am -
0 likes
DOC SPORTS:
6* South FL.
5* ILL, MS ST.
4* Buff, Colorado, Alabama, E. Carolina
posted by phantom
Oct. 7 2006 3:41am -
0 likes
Gold Sheet:
Super 7: Hawaii
Top: Syracuse
Regular: Western Michigan, Tennessee, SMU
posted by phantom
Oct. 7 2006 3:41am -
0 likes
Dr BOB:
3* Florida
2* Miss State, Colorado State, Kentucky
posted by phantom
Oct. 7 2006 3:41am -
0 likes
Lt Profits:
2* East Carolina, Syracuse, and Oragan State
posted by phantom
Oct. 7 2006 3:41am -
0 likes
Ness
Legend= Colo
Insider = Toledo
SEC GOY = Fla
15* = Tex, Ga, Hawaii
posted by phantom
Oct. 7 2006 3:42am -
0 likes
Grey Wolf Sports:
4 units - Okl +4
3 units - Byu -27.5
3 units - Lsu Under 41.5
2 units - Akron +6
1 unit - Iowa -11.5
100000% confirmed
posted by phantom
Oct. 7 2006 1:49pm -
0 likes
Gator Report
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Gator’s College “Techâ€
posted by phantom
Oct. 7 2006 1:49pm -
0 likes
Bettors World
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5* Wake Forest +17 over Clemson - Guess which team is undefeated here? Nope. Not Clemson! The mighty Wake Forest Demon Deacons and they will be looking for their first 6-0 start in 62 years! Ok, perhaps there is enough evidence that Clemson is the better team based strictly on the fact that they played at Boston College and lost by one, and then played at Florida State and won straight up by a TD. Wake Forest has no such giants on their resume. But not so sure Clemson deserves to be 17 point favorites on the road against Wake Forest in what amounts to a monumental game for Wake. Once again, we take a look at the history between these two schools. One would expect, after seeing Clemson as a 17 point road fav, that when looking at the past history here, we'd see all sorts of Clemson blow outs of Wake. Nope. Actually, over the last decade, there have been two non competitive games. But guess what? Clemson was the one who got blown out in one of those, 45-17 in 2003. So, you then might say, well, Wake Forest must have a young inexperienced team. They must have lost a ton of starters to graduation. Nope again! This is almost the exact same Wake Forest team from a year ago. They returned 9 on offense including the QB, and 10 on defense. This is the same team, that one year ago, beat Clemson 31-27. The proof is in the puddin, as the saying goes. This team can play with Clemson. We have to give them a shot, getting +17 at home, playing a team that is ranked in the top 20 (15). A ranking they want so badly. Wake goes into this game thinking they can win straight up. They know they can win straight up based on last year alone. 17 points is a bonus. Can't see Wake rolling over here.
4* Purdue +11 over Iowa - Each week here on the Key Release page, our selections seem to take on a common theme. This week, that theme would appear to be teams that are getting too much respect with the line playing against teams not getting enough respect. Overvalued teams vs undervalued teams equals a bunch of added value for us! Iowa is a team we just haven't been impressed with. Sure they are 4-1 and their lone loss came at the hands of the #1 team in the nation. But their wins have come against sub par competition and quite frankly weren't all that impressive to begin with. Certainly no more impressive than their opponents, Purdue, who is also 4-1 and beat a decent Minnesota team while losing last week for the first time when they visited Notre Dame. No shame there. A look at the series history here tells us that Purdue always plays Iowa tough. They have won 2 of the last three straight up. If you gave Purdue +11 in each of the last 10 games against Iowa, they would have covered 8 and lost 2. That's important to note, because it gives us a glimpse of the historical talent level between the two teams. It shows us that over the years, talent wise, these two teams have been on the same level. Throw in a little revenge for last years 34-17 loss at home to Iowa, and you have all the makings of a nice play on the underdog here.
4* Florida pk over LSU - We're not going to tell you that we have uncovered some major statistical advantage for the Gators here. Or that we have a million reasons why the Gators are the better team and should win. We have none of that here. This play borders on being little more than a hunch for us. Hey, sometimes it's not all rocket science in this game. Sometimes, after watching 35 years worth of college football games year in and year out, you just get a feeling on certain games that the time is right. This game has obvious National Title implications. The Gators are one of the remaining undefeated teams in the nation. They have a BRUTAL stretch of schedule in front of them and the likelihood of them remaining undefeated this year is probably slim. But you have to take one game at a time, starting with LSU in the swamp this week. These two schools will always be loaded with talent. Either of these teams will be capable of beating the other on any given day anytime they play. The team that makes the fewer mistakes will generally win these games. When we glance at the schedules of these two, we see that LSU has played no one with the exception of Auburn. A game which they lost 7-3. Florida has beaten Tennessee on the road and Alabama last week at home, albeit in a much closer game than the scoreboard showed. We simply like our chances this year with Florida being the team to make fewer mistakes and remaining undefeated for at least one more week. Florida RB DeShawn Wynn might not play, which may create even more line value for us. We're plenty comfortable with back up Kestahn Moore. Again, there is no shortage of talent here. Most back ups would start on 95% of the rest of the college football teams in this country. So call this one a gut call. But also keep in mind our gut calls generally win 55 to 60 times out of 100, which is what we are shooting for!
3* Tennessee -2 over Georgia - Huge SEC tilt here in a game which Tennessee can simply not afford to lose. Not much separating these two talent wise but one area where there is a decided edge in favor of the Vols is the QB position. Ainge has come into his own this year and will no doubt factor into the outcome here big time. The Georgia QB situation is not stable. Tereshinski will get the start, but clearly Ainge is the more talented QB in this one, regardless of who plays for the Bulldogs. Revenge for last years home loss, major SEC implications, superior QB, all combined with the fact that Tennessee on a mission this year after last years disappointing season, are all the reasons we need to like the Vols here. We are hoping the number is pk by game time. In which case we will boost this plays rating, so check back.
2* Iowa State +7 over Nebraska - We'll, we were high on this Iowa State team coming into the year and felt they could, and would, make some noise this year. Needless to say, they haven't really impressed us much this year. They did come through for us when we had them over Iowa earlier in the year, but the way they have played against questionable competition has been simply unimpressive. Furthermore, we so often talk about recruiting and talent levels at different schools, and how in some instances, one team/school will always get the better players from pretty much the same pool. This is one such case. A look at the history between these two will show you that Nebraska has dominated and often times simply destroyed Iowa State over the years (82-16-2 overall). To us, this looks to be Iowa States last chance for years to come to pull off an upset, as this Nebraska program is on the rise once again after a few off years and a transition to a whole new style of football. Nebraska looks to be vulnerable in their secondary and well, as luck would have it, Iowa States strength is throwing the ball. This is pretty much the exact same offense for Iowa State that last year took Nebraska to OT and beat them straight up the year before that. We think the talent is there to make this a close game and think Iowa State will take advantage of what looks to be their last chance to beat Nebraska for years to come.
2* Navy +3 over Air Force - This one not a strong play. Air Force certainly a very capable team. They almost pulled the upset at Tennessee early in the year and Tennessee ain't no cupcake. This is a good Air Force team. Navy's had their number though in recent years, winning the last 3 straight up by a field goal. Navy has the talent to win and we can't ignore their eye popping spread mark on the road the last few years. They have covered 21 of their last 26 road games. Once again, this is a weak call here, but we're siding with Navy +3 for a peanut
posted by phantom
Oct. 7 2006 1:50pm