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19-1 ATS BYE system has THREE active games this week!!
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Last week this system forecast the Falcons' win over the Cardinals. This week it has three active games.
The system is repeated below:
In 2002 the Houston Texans were added to the league to make 32 teams rather than the unwieldy 31. The league took the opportunity to realign the league into eight divisions with four teams each. This made the assigning the by weeks much simpler. Now, there are byes only in weeks 3-9. Previously some teams opened the season with a bye!
The specific trend we present here involves the simple situation when a favorite by more than six points has a bye week next. Teams in this situation are a combined 19-1 ATS since 2002, covering by an average of 10.0 ppg and they are 20-0 straight up, winning by an average of 18.9 ppg.
The lone blemish on this record came when the Bears got a TD at the 2:00 minute warning to get the backdoor cover vs the Vikings in 2004.
The reasoning seems pretty obvious. A team that is going into a bye week will want to spend the week enjoying a solid effort rather than listening to their coach bark at them and forcing extra practices. When a team is a heavy favorite, one of the main reasons to bet against them covering the spread is that they are look-ahead to a tougher opponent next week.
When a team is looking ahead to a bye, they can be 100% focused on their current opponent and play the entire 60 minutes.
This system has already produced THREE winners THIS season as the Chargers tagged the Titans 40-7 as a 11-point choice, the Cowboys beat Washington 27-10 laying 6’ and the Falcons beat the Cardinals 32-10 laying 7.
This week, the Colts, Jaguars and Patriots ALL qualify!
Systems such as this one are interesting to consider and discuss in a forum, but they are by no means "sure things." Only a thorough investigation of all aspects of a game will result in long-term handicapping success.
posted by phantom
Oct. 2 2006 11:31pm -
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Another" 19-1 ATS system
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The league is also 19-1 ATS since 2002 as a favorite of MORE than 6 points and LESS than 15 points over a divisional opponent the week before their bye. The Colts don't qualify for this one.
posted by phantom
Oct. 2 2006 11:32pm -
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sports reporter
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RECOMMENDED TOTAL
OVER 45
*GREEN BAY over ST. LOUIS by 2
The good Rams news this season: After St. Louis made more turnovers than everyone
but the Saints in ’05, Marc Bulger has yet to throw an interception in 186 consecutive
pass attempts and Torry Holt and Isaac Bruce both surpassed 100 yards receiving in
Week 4. After managing only two TDs the first three weeks of the season, the Rams put
up four in the highly emotional return of Mike Martz to St. Louis. This sets up a beautiful
letdown scenario on the road this week against an inconsistent but dangerous home foe
in the Packers. Bret Favre is no longer the player he once was, but if the line can provide
him protection he can still make most of the throws. The Rams defense doesn’t do very
much well, but they are especially bad at rushing the passer, having only accumulated
six sacks on the season thus far. Points should be plenty in this match up of two potent
offenses, but logic tells us the Packers will stand while the Rams ultimately fall. GREEN
BAY 33-31.
BEST BET
BUFFALO over *CHICAGO by 3
Dick Jauron, before he dicks you. Ex-Bears head coach shows up in “You Fired Meâ€
posted by phantom
Oct. 3 2006 4:34pm -
0 likes
THE GOLD SHEET
MONDAY, OCTOBER 2
*PHILADELPHIA 28 - Green Bay 23--With Packer offense showing plenty of fight and firepower (58 pts.) past two games, G.B. has a bit of renewed spirit now that it has garnered its first victory and things don't look so bleak. Ahman Green (63 YR, 68 YR) again helping Brett Favre in backfield, while Philly defense suffering some early-season hits (check status of S Dawkins & CBs Hood & Lewis). Donovan McNabb (7 TDs, 1 int.) is "back" after LY's injuries. Check to see if speed target Donté Stallworth (hamstring; DNP last week) is back. CABLE TV--ESPN
(05-PHIL. 19-G. Bay 14...G.18-15 P.34/180 G.30/128 G.15/33/2/164 P.12/28/0/84 P.1 G.3)
(05-PHILADELPHIA -4' 19-14...SR: Green Bay 22-14)
SUNDAY, OCTOBER 8
INDIANAPOLIS 28 - Tennessee 13--Many question marks, as Vince Young (2 ints., 2 sacks, 1 lost fumble vs. Dallas) makes his first road start vs. smallish, but quick and heady Indy defense. The preseason plan was not to have Vince starting so soon, but disillusion with late arrival Kerry Collins (6 ints. first 3 games)--vocalized last week by veteran LB Keith Bulluck--led to the change, forcing off. coord. Norm Chow to enlarge the custom-made package of plays for the youthful QB, who worked out of shotgun spread in college. However, insiders report Indy would like to rest its many walking wounded, as bye week is next.
(05-Indy 31-TENN. 10...I.22-18 T.19/109 I.26/100 I.20/27/0/264 T.28/37/1/204 I.0 T.0)
(05-INDY 35-Tenn. 3...I.21-17 I.31/105 T.20/40 T.26/39/0/220 I.13/17/0/187 I.1 T.1)
(05-Indianapolis -7 31-10, INDIANAPOLIS -15' 35-3...SR: Indianapolis 13-10)
OVER THE TOTAL NY GIANTS 31 - Washington 23--Can you blame rash TE Jeremy Shockey very much for his rant after the Seattle game after seeing N.Y. fall behind 35-0? He and HC Coughlin have had a face-to-face meeting since, so must anticipate intense effort from host. Washington defense has greatly missed CB Shawn Springs (check status), as pressure from front four has been lacking (only 7 sacks). Al Saunders-designed Redskin offense made Jacksonville defense look like Houston's last week!
(05-GIANTS 36-Wash. 0...N.19-7 N.45/262 W.13/38 N.12/31/1/124 W.14/34/1/87 N.0 W.3)
(05-WASH. 35-Giants 20...W.22-18 W.43/156 N.19/99 N.23/42/1/233 W.13/19/1/224 W.0 N.0)
(05-NY GIANTS -2 36-0, WASHINGTON -3 35-20...SR: NY Giants 83-61-4)
MINNESOTA 23 - Detroit 10--For first quarter of season, new regime in Minnesota (2-2) has appeared to be well ahead of that in Detroit (4-0). Even though some Martz-style pass plays have been productive at times, Lions are rushing for only 74 ypg. Meanwhile, Minny HC Brad Childress, formerly from the staff of Wisconsin, is firmly committed to the run (despite last week's poor showing), and he's got the McKinnie-Hutchinson left side of his OL to produce it. Vikes (yield 16 ppg) also superior in secondary; Lion defense 10 TDP, 0 ints.!
(05-MINN. 27-Det. 14...D.20-19 M.35/164 D.20/58 D.28/48/2/231 M.15/22/0/121 M.1 D.1)
(05-Minn. 21-DET. 16...M.20-19 D.23/105 M.32/103 M.17/23/0/242 D.17/35/1/118 M.0 D.0)
(05-MINNESOTA -1 27-14, Minnesota -2' 21-16...SR: Minnesota 58-29-2)
NEW ORLEANS 27 - Tampa Bay 10--Rookie QB Bruce Gradkowski of Toledo has had two weeks to prepare (and get nervous) for his first NFL start, replacing injured Chris Simms. But Saints' new HC Sean Payton, though young, is from the old-school Bill Parcells mold and is sure to empty the defensive playbook at the rookie. Meanwhile, Drew Brees (342 YP last week) providing steady leadership for offense, which did not have Reggie Bush, WR Marques Colston, or much of Deuce (injured) LY.
(05-T. Bay 10-N. ORL. 3...N.16-14 T.30/133 N.27/65 N.18/34/4/214 T.12/21/0/115 T.0 N.0)
(05-T. BAY 27-N. Orl. 13...N.18-14 T.26/149 N.23/71 N.25/37/2/235 T.12/25/0/136 T.0 N.1)
(05-Tampa Bay -3' 10-3 at BR, TAMPA BAY -13' 27-13...SR: New Orleans 17-11)
GREEN BAY 24 - St. Louis 20--New Rams' HC Scott Linehan has kept his word and has improved the St. Louis defense and ground game (S. Jackson 367 YR) and has reduced giveaways (only 3 TY!). But the Rams' OL injuries still a concern, with the more-careful Marc Bulger taking some big hits. Brett Favre (340 YP each of last two games prior to Monday nighter in Philly) "renewed" with return of RB Ahman Green, improvement of rookies WR G. Jennings & LB Hawk, and addition of vet S Marquand Manuel. (04-GREEN BAY -6' 45-17...SR: St. Louis 45-41-2)
NEW ENGLAND 27 - Miami 13--N.E. is banged up again in the defensive backfield (CB Gay gone for the year; CB Hobbs & S E. Wilson DNP last week). But those losses are tempered somewhat by the improving Pat offense (quick RB Maroney 15 for 125, 2 TDs; WR Gabriel 4 recs., 1 TD last week at Cincy). If N.E. runs well, life gets very easy for Tom Brady. Meanwhile, Miami (only 15 points at Houston) trying to overcome OL woes (20 sacks!). In LY's Dolphin victory at Foxboro, Pats were holding out key players in season finale.
(05-N. Eng. 23-MIAMI 16...M.22-19 N.25/91 M.25/77 M.25/47/1/360 N.21/36/2/274 N.0 M.1)
(05-Miami 28-N. ENG. 26...M.25-16 M.40/148 N.28/55 M.22/35/0/230 N.14/28/1/204 M.0 N.0)
(05-New England -3 23-16, Miami +6 28-26...SR: Miami 47-34)
CHICAGO 24 - Buffalo 6--Buffalo coach Dick Jauron, never known for offensive fireworks or inspirational leadership during his 5-year tenure as HC of the Bears, now must watch restive QB Losman try to deal with the ferocious Chicago defense, which has allowed DDs at home only 2 times in the last 1+ seasons. Meanwhile, Bear QB Rex Grossman in the midst of his longest stretch without injury, and speedy WR Bernard Berrian (15 recs.) burning defenses that focus on steady force Muhsin Muhammad.
(02-BUFFALO -3 33-27 (OT)...SR: Chicago 5-4)
CAROLINA 22 - Cleveland 10--For second straight week, young Browns showed lots of positives, running, throwing, catching, and defending better at key times. But Cleveland's over-stressed OL might get overwhelmed by Panthers' superior defensive front. And Browns still short-handed in secondary, a big negative when Steve Smith has totaled 17 receptions his first two games back from injury! "Under" (Cleveland "under" 16-6-1 last 23 games) a possibility. (02-Carolina +7' 13-6...SR: Carolina 2-0)
JACKSONVILLE 24 - NY Jets 10--Matchup of good-buddy and former Marshall teammate QBs Chad Pennington & Byron Leftwich. But much prefer Byron's chances with two rookies (albeit high quality) starting in Jets' OL vs. scary DTs Stroud, Henderson & Co. N.Y.'s young ground game still developing, while thick-thighed smurf RB Maurice Jones-Drew giving Jags a double punch with Fred Taylor. The heady Pennington will have to be brilliant for the Jets to hang around.
(05-Jack. 26-JETS 20 (OT)...J.16-12 J.47/139 N.25/89 J.16/24/1/169 N.11/22/2/79 J.2 N.1)
(05-Jacksonville +2' 26-20 (OT)...SR: Jacksonville 4-3)
Kansas City 24 - ARIZONA 16--Dennis Green nearly changed QBs (to Matt Leinart) last week, so it would be no surprise if Leinart (1 int., 1 fumble last week) gets the call this week at home. But can't knock the job K.C. caretaker Huard (3 TDs, 0 ints.) has done stepping in for Trent Green. And Herm Edwards helping Chiefs' defense (11 ppg!). Cardinals have yet to cover TY, new stadium or not! (02-K. CITY -9' 49-0...SR: K. City 6-2-1)
SAN FRANCISCO 24 - Oakland 13--S.F. off. coord. Norv Turner gets a shot at his previous team, which fired him as HC after two years with marginal personnel (who often gave a marginal effort). His new pupil, improved 49er QB Alex Smith, is more experienced than former pupil Andrew Walter (4 ints., 3 fumbles first 3 games). Niner offense, sparked by RBs Frank Gore & Michael Robinson and WR Antonio Bryant, coming off worst shutout in franchise history. Might temper enthusiasm a bit if Aaron Brooks (check status) back for Raiders. (05 Preseason: Oakland -3 beat San Francisco 23-7 at Oakland)
(02-San Francisco +3 23-20 (OT)...SR: Oakland 6-4)
PHILADELPHIA 23 - Dallas 13--Terrell Owens (perhaps you've heard of him) returns to Philadelphia after LY's debacle/disaster. He has focused all of his offseason workouts on this 10/8 date, doing 10 reps when lifting, then 8 on his second set. But Philly QB McNabb--who T.O. criticized--red hot going into Monday nighter vs. G.B. And Eagles have 8 up front on defense to rotate vs. Dallas' often-problematic OL and stationary QB Bledsoe. Owens gets "special attention" all day.
(05-DAL. 33-Phil. 10...D.28-6 D.46/167 P.9/19 D.24/35/0/289 P.16/30/0/110 D.1 P.0)
(05-Dal. 21-PHIL. 20...P.21-13 P.36/181 D.24/58 D.17/24/1/183 P.21/39/1/178 D.0 P.0)
(05-DALLAS +3 33-10, Dallas +3 21-20...SR: Dallas 53-40)
*Pittsburgh 20 - SAN DIEGO 13--After two breathers to open campaign, S.D. QB Rivers experienced the other side of NFL life vs. Ray Lewis & Co. in Baltimore, generating one TD (none for the last 55 minutes). Meanwhile, expect a jock-knocking effort from road warrior Steelers (16-3 SU L2+Ys), furious after their 9-0 blanking in Jacksonville and mortifying, five-giveaway, 28-20 home loss to the Bengals. Ben Roethlisberger now rested and healthy, as is his Super Bowl OL. TV--NBC
(05-Pitt 24-S. DIEGO 22...P.25-20 P.32/104 S.21/66 S.20/35/1/213 P.17/26/0/207 P.1 S.1)
(05-Pittsburgh +3 24-22...SR: Pittsburgh 19-7)
MONDAY, OCTOBER 9
*DENVER 13 - Baltimore 12--Defensively-rugged Baltimore owns 5 straight covers (4 wins) vs. the Broncos the L6Ys, going 1-1 SU in Denver. And the Raven defense (Balt. "under" 17 of last 21 away) will severely test QB Plummer's tendency to become "Bad Jake," as opposed to 2005's reliable "Good Jake" (only 7 ints. in reg. season). Ravens +8 in TOs TY, with LB Bart Scott (5 sacks) joining Ray Lewis in wreaking havoc. And quick Denver stop unit allowing only 10 ppg TY! CABLE TV--ESPN
(05-DEN. 12-Balt. 10...B.20-17 D.32/96 B.23/72 B.23/40/2/251 D.19/33/0/222 D.1 B.2)
(05-DENVER -15 12-10...SR: Baltimore 4-2)
MONDAY NIGHT HISTORY
Baltimore and Denver on Monday Night
Baltimore is 1-1 SU and 2-0 vs. the pointspread on the road on MNF;
3-1 SU and 3-1 vs. the pointspread at home on MNF.
Denver is 17-9-1 straight-up and 10-16-1 vs. the pointspread at home on MNF;
5-19 SU and 8-15-1 vs. the pointspread on the road on MNF.
NFL KEY RELEASES
NEW ORLEANS by 17 over Tampa Bay
PITTSBURGH by 7 over San Diego
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OVER THE TOTAL in the Washington-N.Y. Giant game
2006 NFL RATINGS & POINTSPREAD RECORDS
All teams measured from the TOP RATING of zero. HFV - Home Field Value. Deduct allotted points for HFV from rating of Home Team. R - Current Power Rating. SUR - Straight-Up Won-Loss Record. PSR - Won-Loss Record vs. Pointspread. O/U-Total Over-under record (number of games that went over-number of games that went under). PF & PA - Average Points Scored For and Against. Results at Home listed under Home. Results on Road listed under Away. Teams with a bold + or - have had their ratings moved 2 points or more for the better (+) or worse (-) since last week.
TOTAL HOME AWAY
TEAM R HFV SUR PSR O/U PF-PA PSR PF-PA PSR PF-PA
Arizona 11 3 1-3 0-4 2-2 17-24 0-2 24-22 0-2 10-27
Atlanta 4 4 3-1 3-1 1-3 17-11 2-0 23-7 1-1 12-15
Baltimore 5 4 4-0 3-1 1-3 22-8 2-0 22-10 1-1 21-7
Buffalo 9 3 2-2 3-1 1-3 18-16 1-1 19-20 2-0 17-13
Carolina 4 3 2-2 0-4 1-3 17-20 0-2 14-19 0-2 20-20
Chicago 3 3 4-0 3-1 2-1 29-7 2-0 36-7 1-1 23-8
Cincinnati 3 2 3-1 3-1 3-1 25-21 1-1 24-28 2-0 26-15
Cleveland 12 2 1-3 2-2 2-2 17-22 1-1 14-17 1-1 21-28
Dallas 4 3 2-1 2-1 2-0 30-16 1-0 27-10 1-1 31-19
Denver 5 5 2-1 1-2 0-3 12-10 0-1 9-6 1-1 14-13
Detroit 13 2 0-4 1-3 3-1 18-29 1-1 15-20 0-2 21-38
Green Bay 13 1 1-2 1-2 2-1 19-28 0-2 14-30 1-0 31-24
Houston+ 13 2 1-3 1-3 2-2 17-28 1-2 14-23 0-1 24-43
Indianapolis 0 3 4-0 3-1 2-2 30-22 2-0 32-19 1-1 29-25
Jacksonville 4 3 2-2 2-2 2-2 19-19 2-0 17-9 0-2 22-29
Kansas City 7 3 1-2 2-1 1-2 19-11 1-1 26-12 1-0 6-9
Miami- 9 1 1-3 0-4 1-3 13-18 0-2 10-13 0-2 16-23
Minnesota 7 2 2-2 3-1 0-3 16-16 2-0 16-16 1-1 16-17
New England 2 3 3-1 2-2 2-2 22-16 0-2 13-17 2-0 31-15
New Orleans+ 8 2 3-1 4-0 1-3 24-16 1-0 23-3 3-0 24-21
NY Giants 6 3 1-2 1-2 2-1 27-31 0-1 21-26 1-1 30-33
NY Jets 8 2 2-2 3-1 4-0 24-23 1-1 23-28 2-0 26-18
Oakland 17 2 0-3 0-3 2-1 9-26 0-2 11-26 0-1 6-28
Philadelphia 4 3 2-1 2-1 2-1 29-21 0-1 24-30 2-0 31-17
Pittsburgh 4 3 1-2 1-2 2-1 16-18 1-1 24-23 0-1 0-9
St. Louis 9 3 3-1 3-1 1-3 22-20 2-0 30-22 1-1 15-17
San Diego 3 3 2-1 2-1 1-2 27-8 1-0 40-7 1-1 20-8
San Francisco 14 2 1-3 2-2 3-1 18-32 1-1 22-26 1-1 14-38
Seattle 4 5 3-1 2-2 2-2 20-21 2-0 32-20 0-2 8-22
Tampa Bay- 11 2 0-3 1-2 1-2 9-22 1-1 12-27 0-1 3-14
Tennessee- 16 2 0-4 1-3 3-1 12-30 0-2 15-34 1-1 9-27
Washington 6 3 2-2 2-2 2-1 23-23 1-1 26-25 1-1 21-21
posted by phantom
Oct. 3 2006 7:44pm -
0 likes
Sports Reporters
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RECOMMENDED
*NY JETS over JACKSONVILLE by 1
Let’s make a statement that is sure to ruffle the feathers of many a sports fan: When the
Jags beat Pittsburgh in Week 2, they weren’t beating the World Champs. The Steelers
may have rings, but for bounces of the ball and some injuries to other teams last season,
they could easily have been out of the playoffs in the first round, just like the Jags
RECOMMENDED TOTAL
OVER 45
*GREEN BAY over ST. LOUIS by 2
The good Rams news this season: After St. Louis made more turnovers than everyone
but the Saints in ’05, Marc Bulger has yet to throw an interception in 186 consecutive
pass attempts and Torry Holt and Isaac Bruce both surpassed 100 yards receiving in
Week 4. After managing only two TDs the first three weeks of the season, the Rams put
up four in the highly emotional return of Mike Martz to St. Louis. This sets up a beautiful
letdown scenario on the road this week against an inconsistent but dangerous home foe
in the Packers. Bret Favre is no longer the player he once was, but if the line can provide
him protection he can still make most of the throws. The Rams defense doesn’t do very
much well, but they are especially bad at rushing the passer, having only accumulated
six sacks on the season thus far. Points should be plenty in this match up of two potent
offenses, but logic tells us the Packers will stand while the Rams ultimately fall. GREEN
BAY 33-31.
BEST BET
BUFFALO over *CHICAGO by 3
Dick Jauron, before he dicks you. Ex-Bears head coach shows up in “You Fired Meâ€
posted by phantom
Oct. 3 2006 8:17pm -
0 likes
winning points
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****BEST BET
Tampa Bay over *New Orleans by 13
Chris Simms doesn’t have a spleen and the Buccaneers don’t have a victory
yet.Those are two factors why we like the Bucs a lot in this matchup.
Yes, at 0-3, you have to wonder about Tampa Bay’s confidence level. The
team is on life support. Mercifully the Bucs were idle last week.Their bye
couldn’t have come at a better time. It gives Jon Gruden two weeks to rally
his troops and prepare rookie quarterback Bruce Gradkowski.You can criticize
Simms all you want for his interceptions and ineffectiveness during
the first three games, but no one doubts his courage anymore. The Bucs
aren’t just playing for their season here, knowing a loss ruins any playoff
prayers; they want to win this game for the gallant Simms. He nearly rallied
the Bucs to a win against the Panthers two weeks ago despite what later
turned out to be a serious injury in which his spleen was removed.That’s
courage. His teammates won’t forget it.They’ll be playing very hard here.
The Bucs could be 2-1 instead of 0-3, but blew two-fourth quarter leads
against the Falcons and Panthers. So Tampa Bay remains winless, but there’s
nothing wrong with its defense. It’s still top caliber, much superior to the
Saints defense.The core talent remains with Simeon Rice, Derrick Brooks
and Ronde Barber.The Saints had their emotional home game two weeks
ago on Monday night, destroying Atlanta. Things are different this time
around with New Orleans the favorite, not the underdog, and without the
attention of a national TV audience. Gradkowski has weapons (Cadillac
Williams, Joey Galloway and Michael Clayton) to take advantage of the
Saints’ mediocre linebackers and young safeties. So the pressure isn’t all on
him. Gradkowski was 45-for-61 in preseason. He’s the NCAA completion
percentage leader.The Bucs are 4-1 SU and ATS their last five road games
against New Orleans.TAMPA BAY 23-10.
***BEST BET
*Arizona over Kansas City by 14
The Cardinals return to their air-conditioned brand new stadium with Matt
Leinart replacing Kurt Warner at quarterback.We say it’s about time.Warner
has killed the Cardinals with his fumbles and interceptions. The quarterback
change, coupled with returning home to the desert, should provide a
nice boost for the Cardinals here. Leinart is no ordinary rookie. Heck, the
guy faced more pressure at USC. He has the poise of a veteran and a supporting
cast better than most teams at the skill positions with Edgerrin
James, Anquan Boldin and Larry Fitzgerald.The Cards haven’t had a problem
moving the ball.They’ve just dug dirt on themselves with turnovers.
Expect that to change with Warner mishandling a clipboard instead of the
football.Those looking to rip on Leinart for this matchup should examine
the other team’s quarterback. Damon Huard is nothing but a journeyman.
The Chiefs have had to scale back their offense to accommodate him,
which is saying something since they already have simplified the playbook
when Herm Edwards took over. As long as Trent Green remains out, Larry
Johnson can expect to see eight-man fronts.That should be the case here
because there’s no reason to respect Kansas City’s downfield passing attack
with Huard and an aging offensive line that no longer protects so well.The
Chiefs’ defense isn’t nearly as good as it looked at home last week against
the hapless 49ers.This game isn’t at Arrowhead.There’s a chance the Chiefs
may lose Jared Allen (check status), their best pass rusher, to a possible
league suspension. The Chiefs have been mediocre against the run.With
James, the Cardinals finally have a runner to take advantage and give
Arizona a needed balanced attack. The Chiefs also have been notoriously
bad in the role of a non-conference road favorite, covering just once the
past 10 times.ARIZONA 31-17.
**PREFERRED
Cleveland over *Carolina by 2
After two straight division games, and with a tougher foe in Baltimore up
next week, we see a flat spot here for the Panthers.The Panthers are dangerous
as underdogs, but poison as favorites, especially when laying big
points like this. The Browns have talent deficiencies, no doubt there. But
they are pesky,well-coached and give a full effort.They should have beaten
the Ravens two weeks ago, losing by a point on a late field goal. Cleveland
has covered four of the past five times when receiving eight or more
points.The Panthers, on the other hand, are 4-11 (26 percent) ATS when laying
six or more the past three years. Going back to 2003, the Panthers are
12-24 (33 percent) as a favorite. It’s not like the Panthers have been performing
that well either.Their offensive line has been plagued by injuries,
Jake Delhomme has been sacked 10 times and the Panthers’ ground attack
has been nothing special.The defense has missed the presence of middle
linebacker Dan Morgan (check status).The Panthers surrendered 24 points
to the struggling Buccaneers offense just two weeks ago.We’re not talking
a great team. The Browns are idle next week, so there’s nothing holding
them back from going all out. CLEVELAND 21-19.
*San Diego over Pittsburgh by 14
Pittsburgh started last year out losing three of its first four games.That very
well could be the case again this season.The Chargers have outscored their
foes, 80-23. They have led for all but one minute. Unfortunately that one
minute cost them a game against the Ravens last week.The Chargers are a
very solid team.They’re going to be playing angry and for respect, with this
being the Sunday night nationally televised game.The last looks we had of
Pittsburgh was a team being held to zero points and 26 yards rushing
against the Jaguars, and then losing at home in a division showdown game
to the Bengals. Pittsburgh was idle last week.Actually that was a bad time
for the Steelers to draw their bye. Ben Roethlisberger is rusty. His timing is
off. He needs the work. He has five interceptions and no touchdown passes.
Roethlisberger ranked 31st among the 32 starting quarterbacks through
Week 3. The Steelers couldn’t run against Jacksonville.Well, guess what?
The Chargers are even more difficult to run on and this game isn’t in
Pittsburgh. The Steelers don’t have a superstar like the Chargers do with
LaDainian Tomlinson. Look for Philip Rivers, playing at home, to come up
big if the Steelers key on Tomlinson. SAN DIEGO 20-6.
close calls
*Indianapolis over Tennessee by 17
Vince Young gives the Titans a needed boost of energy, excitement and
hunger. They could use it going 9-27 the past two seasons.We just don’t
want to go with the rookie Young in this setting against the Colts’ quick
pass rushers when the Titans figure to be playing from far behind. Peyton
Manning fired seven touchdown passes against the Titans last year as the
Colts outscored Tennessee, 66-13, in their two meetings. Manning should
put up monster numbers against a demoralized Tennessee defense that
isn’t nearly talented enough to carry a weak offense.The Colts are 6-0 SU
and ATS the past six in the series. INDIANAPOLIS 33-16.
*New York Giants over Washington by 4
The good news for the Giants is they’ve had two weeks off after being
sleepless in Seattle.The bad news is they are an NFL-worst 3-14 SU following
their bye week. New York’s defense has disappeared, giving up an
unsightly 30.7 points and 370.3 yards per game. Despite having two passrushing
terrors at the defensive end spots and linebacker LaVar Arrington,
the Giants have managed just two sacks.A healthy Clinton Portis has made
a huge difference for Washington.The Redskins have scored 67 points their
last two games. But this is Washington’s third road game in five weeks and
the Giants desperately need a victory. NY GIANTS 34-30.
*Minnesota over Detroit by 7
In the last three weeks, the Lions have been torched by Rex Grossman,
Brett Favre and Marc Bulger surrendering an average of 320 yards through
the air.They’ve allowed 10 TD passes in this three-week span. Brad Johnson
is next in line. Detroit has won only once the past 12 years in Minnesota.
The good news for the Lions is the past two weeks their offense has picked
up producing 58 points, now if they could just solve their left tackle woes
where rookie Jonathan Scott is in way over his head.The Vikings have the
speed pass rushers, made faster on artificial turf, and noisy crowd to disrupt
Jon Kitna’s timing. The Vikings offense, however, has produced just three
touchdowns. MINNESOTA 23-16.
St. Louis over *Green Bay by 3
The Rams have won and covered three of their past four on grass.Already
this is their third game on natural surface this season. It’s taken a while for
Marc Bulger and the Rams offense to pick up a new system. They have
weapons, though, to put up points against a Packers squad ranked 31st in
pass defense.The Rams have proven opportunistic being plus 10 in takeaways/
giveways. Counting preseason, this is St. Louis’ fifth road game in
seven weeks. Green Bay is on a short week, however, and 3-9 SU its past 12
at Lambeau Field. ST. LOUIS 26-23.
*New England over Miami by 8
Miami has failed to cover five of its last six at New England, but at least this
matchup is early enough in the year where weather shouldn’t factor.The
Dolphins can use some luck.They could use a big dose of confidence, too,
after losing to the Texans last week. Miami’s defense remains solid.This is a
division matchup, too, so don’t get carried away thinking about laying a lot
of points here.Tom Brady is getting more in sync with his new receivers
each week,though,and rookie Laurence Maroney is showing off star potential.
Until they get their offensive line straighten out, the Dolphins aren’t
worth backing. Daunte Culpepper has been sacked an average of seven
times a game. NEW ENGLAND 24-16.
*Chicago over Buffalo by 7
Bills coach Dick Jauron used to coach the Bears. Bills general manager,Marv
Levy, is from Chicago. Both have plenty of incentive for this non-conference
matchup.What they’re going to need is plenty of brain power figuring out
ways to keep J.P. Losman out of harm’s way. One way is ride Willis
McGahee, who was leading the NFL in rushing through Week 3.The Bears
simply don’t give up points at home during the regular season.The Bills are
2-7 SU, 4-5 ATS their last nine road games.They also are a carpet team on
grass. One hope the Bills have is the Bears taking them too lightly after
three consecutive division games followed by a Sunday night matchup
against Seattle. CHICAGO 19-12.
*Jacksonville over New York Jets by 4
It doesn’t matter that the Jaguars are masters at stopping the run.The Jets
can’t rush the ball anyways. Last year, Jacksonville held the Jets to 168 yards
of offense, while controlling the clock nearly 15 more minutes.The Jaguars
have won 10 of their last 11 regular season games against teams not named
the Colts. Fred Taylor usually plays well against the Jets. He’s averaged 130
yards rushing his past three games against them. It’s tough, though, to lay a
big margin with the Jaguars. They’ve failed to cover the past three times
they’ve been asked to lay seven or more. Jacksonville also is 4-11-1 ATS in
October. JACKSONVILLE 27-23.
*San Francisco over Oakland by 2
This is a Phyllis Diller game:A matchup of real ugly teams.Anybody remember
the Raiders going 4-0 in preseason? Didn’t think so. Oakland played its
best game two weeks ago – when they were off.The Raiders just may be
the worst team in the NFL. They’ve lost by an average of 17 points.
However, laying points with the 49ers for the first time in 25 games really
isn’t a strong alternative.This sure isn’t much of a road trip for the Raiders.
LaMont Jordan got untracked last Sunday. He could be in line for another
strong performance. The same probably can’t be said for the Oakland
coaching staff. SAN FRANCISCO 21-19.
*Philadelphia over Dallas by 5
Terrell Owens is sure to get a sweet reception in Philly. Eagles fans have 25
million reasons to hate Owens. They don’t exactly love the rest of the
Cowboys either. It was a 21-20 loss at home to Dallas that caused the
Eagles’ downward spiral last year, ending their playoff string at five.
Donovan McNabb was knocked out for good and Philly lost five of its
remaining seven.McNabb entered Monday’s home game against Green Bay
throwing for the most yards in the NFL, keying a Philly attack averaging 29
points. The Eagles had 16 sacks in three games going into Monday, bad
news for slow-footed Drew Bledsoe. Dallas is just 1-6 SU, 2-4-1 ATS its last
seven in Philadelphia. PHILADELPHIA 25-20.
*Denver over Baltimore by 7 (Monday)
Team history suggests otherwise, but it’s hard to pick against Denver here.
The Broncos have surrendered just one touchdown all season. Steve
McNair is struggling with his accuracy and no longer has the big arm. Since
2002, Denver is 27-8 SU at home, the second-best mark in the NFL. The
Broncos also have won eight of the last 11 following their bye week.Keep
in mind, though, the Ravens came to Denver last year as a huge 15-point
underdog and nearly pulled off the upset, losing, 12-10.The Ravens are plus
8 in turnover ratio. The Ravens have covered their past five meetings
against the Broncos. DENVER 20-13.
OVER/UNDER
**OVER: Washington at New York Giants – The Giants are allowing
30.7 points a game, while opponents aren’t fooled any longer by
Washington’s defense.
UNDER: Pittsburgh at San Diego – Two running offenses collide
against two outstanding run defenses.
OVER: New York Jets at Jacksonville – Jets are 7-0-1 above the total
their past eight, while Byron Leftwich is off one of his best performances.
HISTORICAL TRENDS
Tennessee at Indianapolis – The Colts swept the Titans last year,winning
31-10 on the road and 35-3 at home.
Washington at New York Giants – The teams split last year with the
Giants shutting out the Skins, 36-0, at home and losing, 35-20, on the road.
Detroit at Minnesota – The Vikings defeated the Lions twice last year, 27-
14 at home and 21-16 on the road.The Lions are 1-11 SU at Minnesota, 5-6-
1 ATS.
Tampa Bay at New Orleans – The Bucs beat the Saints 10-3 on the road
and 27-13 at home last year.The Bucs are 4-1 SU and ATS on the road against
the Saints.
St. Louis at Green Bay – The Packers whipped the Rams, 45-17, at home
in 2004.
Miami at New England – The teams split last season with the Patriots winning,
23-16, on the road and losing, 28-26, at home.
Buffalo at Chicago – The Bills won, 33-27, in overtime at home in 2002.
Cleveland at Carolina – Carolina won, 13-6, at Cleveland in 2002.
New York Jets at Jacksonville – The Jaguars defeated the Jets, 26-20, in
overtime last year on the road.
Kansas City at Arizona – The Chiefs blanked the Cardinals, 49-0, at home
in 2002.
Oakland at San Francisco – The 49ers edged the Raiders, 23-20, in overtime
at Oakland in 2002.
Dallas at Philadelphia – The teams split last season with the Eagles winning,
33-10, at Dallas and losing 21-20 at home. Dallas is 1-6 SU, 2-4-1 ATS at
Philadelphia.
Pittsburgh at San Diego – The Steelers got past the Chargers, 24-22, at
San Diego last season.The Steelers are 5-0 SU and ATS against the Chargers.
Baltimore at Denver – The Broncos nipped the Ravens, 12-10, at home
last year. Baltimore is 5-0 ATS against Denver.
posted by phantom
Oct. 3 2006 8:21pm -
0 likes
Pointwise
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RATINGS 1* Best and down from there.
PROS
NYG 2*
KC 3*
JACK 4*
GREEN B 4*
PATS 5*
posted by phantom
Oct. 4 2006 2:56pm -
0 likes
Team Play of the Week.
NFL
Sunday, October 8th, 2006
Skins Game
Redskins (+4) over @Giants
Redskins short passing attack may be laughed at in
some circles, but when you have Santana Moss to
throw short passes to, why not take advantage of it?
The Redskins seem to be coming together and that
was a quality OT win against a solid Jaguars team
on Sunday. Yardage was 481-307, and even
accounting for the 68 yarder in overtime, that’s
some pretty solid play from the line of scrimmage.
Washington ran the ball 40 times, and they’re
playing the kind of game Gibbs wants them to play.
5
Giants, on the other hand, just haven’t been that
impressive. Eli Manning’s stats are inflated by the
comeback mode he’s been in against soft defenses
in Philadelphia and Seattle. Lots of phony numbers
padding the totals. There are obviously some
internal problems in New York as well. Not a stretch
to see Coughlin not lasting a whole lot longer as
player rebellion sometimes actually gets out into the
open, you can only imagine what’s simmering
underneath. 1-2 Giants are desperate and in need,
but 2-2 Redskins can’t afford a loss either. Look for
this to be a field goal game, making the points
worth taking. Redskins by 3.
Big Easy Bucs
Bucs (+6½) over @Saints
Tampa Bay has been pretty poor thus far, and now
lose QB Simms (a mixed blessing), who thankfully is
reportedly healing well. Bruce Gradkowski gets the
call for Tampa Bay, and while he doesn’t engender
confidence, he can’t be any worse than Simms (1
TD/ 7INT’s and a 46.3 QB rating. Gradkowski gets
the advantage of the bye week to watch film of New
Orleans. Saints have expended a lot of emotion and
no matter how enthusiastic the crowd is this
Sunday, it will pale in comparison to the Monday
night home opener.
Bad teams often do fairly well off the bye, as their
negative momentum is interrupted and they have
time to regroup. Saints aren’t great, but aren’t as
bad as they’ve shown. Whoever thought the Saints
would be laying nearly a TD at any point this year?
Saints by only 1.
Eagle Attack
@Eagles (-2½) over Cowboys
The T.O. circus rolls into town this weekend and I’m
sure those friendly Philly folks will be graciously
polite to their visitors after tailgating all day. There
are a couple of aspects to this selection, covering
both the situational and the matchups. First of all,
the Cowboys have been through the ringer the past
couple of weeks. They were able to ignore all the
distractions and focus on the Titans, but it was only
the Titans. That game was actually close for a while
before Haynesworth’s spike stomp seemed to lead
to an avalanche by the Cowboys. They’re facing a
very different level of opponent this week.
And that opponent has a defensive coordinator in
Jim Johnson who just thrives on pressuring the
quarterback. The Eagles have a very good and deep
line, even in the absence of Kearse, and they’ll get
to Bledsoe. There are few veteran quarterbacks
around who can be more influenced by that kind of
pressure than Bledsoe. He’ll make mistakes tonight.
Eagles by 9.
Dave Fobare’s NFL Tech Play of the Week
@Chargers (-3, -120) over Steelers
There is generally a premium attached to the
privilege of betting a Super Bowl winner, and based
on the stats season to date, the premium attached
to betting the Steelers is large indeed. While the
season is young, the statistical edge the Chargers
have in this game is enormous.
San Diego has the better running attack, a big edge
in the pass attack, and a huge edge in passing
defense. The only area where the Steelers compare
with San Diego is in rush defense. And the only
edge on Pittsburgh's side is the schedule. San
Diego's only deficiency is in strength of schedule.
Considering the Bolts huge edge in basic stats you
might wonder why they aren't 3-0 instead of 2-1.
After looking at the boxscore of their loss to
Baltimore last weekend that is a pretty good
question. The Chargers had the edge in the running
game. And the passing game. And the turnover
battle. Based on the boxscore alone, San Diego
should have whipped Baltimore by 10 to 13 points.
But San Diego missed a 50-yard field goal attempt,
blew a fake field goal, and turned a punt from their
own end zone into a Baltimore safety.
From a tech standpoint the loss was a blessing in
disguise. San Diego applies to a very strong 14-3
Game 4 system based on teams that are 2-1 and
coming off their first loss. Under the right
circumstances they will pull out all of the stops to
avoid falling to the 0.500 mark and the teams in this
system have covered the spread by an average of
nearly 10 points per game.
To emphasize the decline Pittsburgh has suffered
one need only go back to their 9-0 shutout loss to
Jacksonville on Monday night back on September
18. The shame of a shutout loss usually spurs a
team to make up for it the next week, and such
teams are generally profitable wagers. Pittsburgh
instead dropped a game as a favorite to Cincinnati in
a rematch of their 2005 playoff meeting. And teams
that fail to atone for a shutout loss are likely to lose
a 3rd game in a row. From that concept the Steelers
apply to a negative 8-24 system. Take San Diego
and the reasonable price over a Steelers team that
has yet to find their 2005 magic.
Systems & Strategies
Note: Frequently the systems that have come in have some contrast with our Max selections. The systems
are created independently of our selections and this will occur from time to time.
In my mind systems are more valuable than trends. A system can be true for the entirety of either college
or pro football. Trends focus on single teams. Take systems with a grain of salt, but they can prove to be
valuable tools in a handicapper’s arsenal. Sometimes they last for a while. Sometimes they turn around.
Always ask yourself, “does this make sense?â€
posted by phantom
Oct. 4 2006 2:58pm -
0 likes
Power Sweep
3 Giants 0 42
3 Browns u 37
3 Lions o 37'
2 Bills u 33'
2 Jets o 38
posted by phantom
Oct. 4 2006 3:47pm -
0 likes
SUNSHINE NFL
Sunday, October 8, 2006
Tennessee Titans (+19) at Indianapolis Colts
Power Rating Projection:
Indianapolis Colts 30 Tennessee Titans 13
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Indianapolis Colts 31 Tennessee Titans 13
Angle: Favored by More Than 13 Points at Home
Go against Indianapolis Colts ( No additional conditions, 27-31-3, 46.6% )
Washington Redskins (+4) at New York Giants
Power Rating Projection:
New York Giants 23 Washington Redskins 18
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
New York Giants 21 Washington Redskins 17
Angle: After Bye Week
Go against New York Giants ( Favored, Previous game was on the road, 27-41-2, 39.7% )
Detroit Lions (+6) at Minnesota Vikings
Power Rating Projection:
Minnesota Vikings 25 Detroit Lions 15
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Minnesota Vikings 22 Detroit Lions 12
Tampa Bay Buccaneers(+6) at New Orleans Saints
Power Rating Projection:
New Orleans Saints 17 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 15
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
New Orleans Saints 17 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3
New Orleans Saints (1 star)
St Louis Rams (-3) at Green Bay Packers
Power Rating Projection:
Green Bay Packers 22 St Louis Rams 19
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Green Bay Packers 20 St Louis Rams 17
Angle: Short Preparation Week
Go against Green Bay Packers ( Underdog (or PK) at home, Failed to cover on the road in previous game, 10-18-1, 35.7% )
Miami Dolphins (+9½) at New England Patriots
Power Rating Projection:
New England Patriots 23 Miami Dolphins 15
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
New England Patriots 20 Miami Dolphins 10
Historical trend: Take New England Patriots ( Domination by home team, 11-4-1, 73.3% )
Buffalo Bills (+11) at Chicago Bears
Power Rating Projection:
Chicago Bears 25 Buffalo Bills 13
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Chicago Bears 20 Buffalo Bills 7
Cleveland Browns (+9) at Carolina Panthers
Power Rating Projection:
Carolina Panthers 23 Cleveland Browns 14
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Carolina Panthers 18 Cleveland Browns 8
New York Jets (+7) at Jacksonville Jaguars
Power Rating Projection:
Jacksonville Jaguars 22 New York Jets 12
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Jacksonville Jaguars 16 New York Jets 6
Kansas City Chiefs (-3) at Arizona Cardinals
Power Rating Projection:
Kansas City Chiefs 22 Arizona Cardinals 17
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Arizona Cardinals 17 Kansas City Chiefs 13
Arizona Cardinals (1 star)
Oakland Raiders (+3½) at San Francisco 49ers
Power Rating Projection:
San Francisco 49ers 21 Oakland Raiders 19
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
San Francisco 49ers 24 Oakland Raiders 13
San Francisco 49ers (1 star)
Dallas Cowboys (+2) at Philadelphia Eagles
Power Rating Projection:
Dallas Cowboys 23 Philadelphia Eagles 20
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Dallas Cowboys 26 Philadelphia Eagles 23
Pittsburgh Steelers (+3) at San Diego Chargers
Power Rating Projection:
San Diego Chargers 21 Pittsburgh Steelers 17
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
San Diego Chargers 16 Pittsburgh Steelers 12
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Monday, October 9, 2006
Baltimore Ravens (+4) at Denver Broncos
Power Rating Projection:
Denver Broncos 23 Baltimore Ravens 14
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Denver Broncos 23 Baltimore Ravens 14
Angle: After Bye Week
Go against Denver Broncos ( Favored, Previous game was on the road, 27-41-2, 39.7% )
posted by phantom
Oct. 5 2006 3:15pm -
0 likes
mti..killer sports
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
5-Star NY Giants -4 over Washingtonâ€â€In each of the last three
seasons, the Giants won and covered the first match-up of the
season and the Redskins won and covered the second. Last season,
the Giants hammered Washington 36-0 laying 1’ at home and we
look for a similar result here.
The main reasoning can be found in this week’s NFL system of the
week, presented by Killersports.com, on page 6 of this issue.
The system involves a team that came from behind to win as an
underdog vs a non-divisional opponent the previous week. Last week
the Redskins were a 2’ point home dog vs the Jaguars. Washington
trailed 17-13 at the half, but came back to win 36-30 in overtime.
The system states, “The League is 0-20 ATS on the road when
they beat a non-divisional opponent as a dog of less than ten points,
at home, last week, despite the fact that they were trailing at the half.
The league has fallen short of the linesmakers’ expectations by an
average of 9.7 ppg in this situation.
It only takes a moment to work out what is happening. When a
team comes from behind to win as a dog, they can be tapped out and
unable to put forth the effort they need to win in the NFL.
The league is only 1-19 straight up in this situation, losing by an
average of 12.6 ppg. The Giants are not strictly a finesse team. They
are off their bye, they are fresh and they are 1-2 and need to get back
in the division race. Here they catch the Redskins in a very vulnerable
spot and they will hammer Tiki Barber at them and throw short passes
to Shockey so he can rattle some of the tired Washington defenders.
We expect the Redskins to effective throw in the towel in the second
half vs an energized Giants team. It has work in each of the past three
seasons as NY has won and covered the first of the two compulsory
divisional match-ups and the Redskins have won and covered the
revenge match-up. This year, the conditions are ripe for it to happen
again. In fact, the Giants are 6-0 ATS since the start of the 2004 season
when facing any divisional opponent for the first time of the season,
covering by an average of 12.5 ppg.
In addition to this system, we have the fact that the Redskins are 0-7
ATS (-11.6 ppg) since week 16, 2000 as a dog when they are 500.
We look for the Giants to completely dominate the time of possession
and keep the exhausted ‘Skins defense on the field. The Giants’
defense pin their ears back and blitz the relatively immobile Brunell.
This one has blowout written all over it. We expect Todd Collins to
make an appearance late in the game for the Redskins as the Giants
get their ticket punched as a contender in the NFC East.
MTi’s FORECAST: NY GIANTS 27 Washington 3
3-Star JACKSONVILLE -7 over NY Jetsâ€â€The Jets match-up well
vs the Colts simply because they have an excellent passing game.,
the Colts do not have a ball-control offense, which means that their
opponent will get plenty of possessions. We expect that the Jaguars will
not give the Jets many possessions and that the Jaguars will go on long
drives that chew up the clock. The Jets are actually getting praise for their
close loss vs the Colts. However, they got a kickoff return for a TD and
then, when the game was on the line with 2:00 left, offered virtually no
resistance and let the Colts march down the field to win 31-28.
This result does not offer evidence to play on the Jets here. In
fact, it offers compelling evidence to play against them. The Jets
are The Jets are 0-9 ATS since the start of the 2003 season as a dog
when they had fewer than ten incompletions last week. In addition,
the Jets are 0-6 ATS (-7.6 ppg) since the start of the 2005 season as
a 7+ dog after a straight up loss, losing straight up by an average of
17 points per game.
MTi’s Side Play of the Week
In addition, we have last week’s NFL System of the Week active
here. The Jaguars have their bye next week and the league is 19-1
ATS since the divisional realignment when they are a laying more
than 6 points and they have their bye next week (see the week 4 issue
for a complete game listing and analysis of this system). Of course,
the Jaguars qualify here. Jacksonville will not want to spend their bye
week under 500 for the season. We look for an all-out 110% effort
from the Jaguars before their bye week.
Remember, the Jacksonville defense held Peyton Manning to 14-
of-31 passing and only 14 points on offense. The Jets play a similar
style to the Colts, and we expect the Jaguars defense to be successful
against the Jets offense. Lay the TD.
MTi’s FORECAST: JACKSONVILLE 24 NY Jets 10
MTi’s Totals Play of the Week
4-Star Kansas City at Arizona OVER 41â€â€We we have one of our
favorite team trends working. In involves the Kansas City Chiefs
following a successful game passing the ball. Last week Damon Huard
was 18-of-23 and had two TDs and no interceptions. The Chiefs are
The Chiefs are 13-0 OU since week 4, 2002 when they had fewer
than ten incompletions last week, eclipsing the OU line by an average
of 14.6 ppg! This team trend was active twice last season. In the first,
the Chiefs and Broncos played to a 31-27 final with the OU line at
45’. The score at the half was 21-21, so going over 45’ wasn’t much of
a sweat. In the second, the Cowboys edged the Chiefs 31-28 with the
OU line at 44. Both games went over by double digits. In the previous
13 qualifying games the average OU line was 47.1â€â€and they went
over this number by an average of more than two TDs! What’s this
line doing at 41? Going up, that’s what. Get in early.
Of course, we have more than this. Schedule-wise, we note that the
Chiefs are 8-0 OU on the road on grass vs a non-divisional opponent
before playing on the road, going over by an average of 15.7 ppg. This
trend is featured at the bottom of the facing page, where we can see
that every game went over by at least a TD.
Yes the Chiefs defense had a shut out last week, but this doesn’t
mean that they should go under here. In fact, the Chiefs are 6-0 OU
since week 4, 2000 on the road after they allowed at least 10 points
fewer than their season-to-date average, going over by an average of
15.8 ppg.
Turning our attention to the Cardinals, we find that they are 9-0
OU (9.6 ppg) since week 11, 2003 when their DPS was negative in
their last three games. Another way of saying this is that the Cardinals
are 9-0 OU (9.6 ppg) since week 11, 2003 when they scored fewer
points than expected in each of their last three games. For more on
DPS, see the small article on page 5 of this issue.
This trend is much stronger when the Cardinals are at home.
Arizona is 6-0 OU since week 11, 2001 at home when their DPS
was negative in their last three games, going over by a whopping
16.7 ppg.
It’s worthwhile to pause in our handicapping and remark thatâ€â€as
far as we know MTi Sports Forecasting is the only handicapping service
that routinely quotes the average margin for trends and systems.
To other handicappers, a 10-0 trends with a margin of 2.1 points is
better than an 8-0 trend with a margin of, say, 15.7 ppg. Of course
the margin is crucial.
Continuing, we note further that the Cardinals are 7-0 OU (7.6
ppg) when they are off a loss and facing any team with more wins.
This one is not a 5-Star because of the unknown quarterback situation
of both these teams and the fact that the Chiefs have a new head
coach. We will be monitoring the Arizona quarterback situation and
the OU line in this game closely throughout the week. Right now, it
looks like a strong OVER play.
MTi’s FORECAST: Kansas City 28 ARIZONA 24 OVER
MTi’s Teaser Play of the Week
MTi’s Newsletter Teaser won again last week, making them 3-0
over the last three weeks. MTi’s late teasers, which are released
late Saturday Night on KillerCappers.com, went a perfect 8-0 last
week and their six-point, two-team teasers have been perfect all
season, going 13-0. Both teaser packages are always guaranteed to be
This week’s newsletter teaser involves three teaser trends that
combine to 78-0. They are:
The Panthers are 29-0 ATSp10 when facing a team that has thrown
an average of 1.25+ interceptions per game season-to-date
The Bears are 25-0 ATSp10 when facing a team that has an average
of fewer than 18 completions per game season-to-date
The Patriots are 24-0 ATSp10 as a home favorite by at least 7
points
This makes MTi’s 3-Team, 10-Point Teaser of the Week:
4-Star Carolina +1, Chicago -1’ and New England Pick
*ATSp10 means against the spread plus ten points. That is, when
used in a ten-point teaser.
posted by phantom
Oct. 5 2006 8:33pm -
0 likes
HQ Report
NCAA FOOTBALL SELECTION October 7th 2006
5* OREGON (+) over California
3* Oklahoma St over Kansas State by 10
3* Rice over Tulane by 11
3* Michigan over Michigan State by 25
3* Colorado State over UNLV by 22
3* Colorado over Baylor by 12
3* Western Michigan over Ohio U by 11
3* Washington (+) over USC
3* South Florida over Connecticut by 13
HQ UNDERDOG PLAY of the WEEK:
MISSOURI (+) over Texas Tech
TOTAL RECALL OVER / UNDER:
NEBRASKA versus IOWA STATE PLAY OVER
A.T.S. (Angles, Trends & Systems):
Toledo over Central Michigan
The Rockets are 13-3 ATS in their first MAC home game of the season
NFL FOOTBALL SELECTIONS
5* COLTS over Titans by 27
Total Recall Over / Under:
Rams versus Packers PLAY OVER
Super System Line: Saints over Buc's
posted by phantom
Oct. 5 2006 8:33pm -
0 likes
Play Over - Road teams against the total - after allowing 3 points or less in the first half last game against opponent after scoring 14 points or less last game. (59-22 over the last 5 seasons.) (72.8%) PLAY: Kansas City / Arizona OVER 39
posted by phantom
Oct. 5 2006 8:38pm -
0 likes
ROCKYS WINNERS CIRCLE OVER/UNDERS
OVER & UNDER TOTALS
strictly computerized ~
WEEK ENDING OCTOBER 9
TOP TOTAL OF WEEK - $9
WISCONSIN OVER 44
LOUISVILLE OVER 52
OHIO STATE OVER 50.5
BYU UNDER 47.5
OREGON STATE OVER 52
CINCINNATI UNDER 44
SOUTH FLORIDA UNDER 39
GEORGIA UNDER 37.5
NFL
TOTAL OF WEEK - $9
GIANTS - WASHINGTON UNDER 44
TAMPA - NEW ORLEANS UNDER 35
ST LOUIS - GREEN BAY OVER 47
MIAMI - NEW ENGLAND UNDER 38
KC - ARIZONA OVER 39
JETS - JACKSONVILLE OVER 37
SAN DIEGO - PITTSBURGH UNDER 38
FREE TOTALS RESULTS
YEAR TO DATE
NFL (8-2) (+30*)
COLLEGE (21-8) (+85*)
posted by phantom
Oct. 5 2006 9:43pm -
0 likes
Dr. Bob
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
3 Star Selection
***GREEN BAY 28 St. Louis (-3.0) 19
2 Star Selection
**Cleveland 21 CAROLINA (-8.0) 22
Strong Opinion
NY GIANTS (-4.5) 30 Washington 19
2-Star Best Bet at -4 points or less
Strong Opinion
PHILADELPHIA (-2.0) 24 Dallas 16
2-Star Best Bet at -1 or better
posted by phantom
Oct. 7 2006 9:23pm -
0 likes
bob "the bear' cowan
33-24-3 ats
minny -6.5
jack -7
san diego -3.5
kansas city -3
posted by phantom
Oct. 7 2006 9:23pm -
0 likes
pointwise phone picks
4 giants
3 tampa bay
3 kc
2 pitt
2 clevland
2 denver
posted by phantom
Oct. 7 2006 9:23pm -
0 likes
sports betting solutions --------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Pittsburgh Steelers @ San Diego Chargers Analysis
Under 37.5 $330/$300
Play Under - Any team where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points (SAN DIEGO) - outrushing their opponents by 1 or more yards/carry on the season, after outrushing opponent by 75 or more yards in 2 straight games.
(40-14 since 1983.) (74.1%, +24.6 units. Rating = 3*)
The average total posted in these games was: 39.4
The average score in these games was: Team 18.5, Opponent 14.3 (Total points scored = 32.7)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 7 or more points was 30 (56.6% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (4-2).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (8-3).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (20-8).
Tennessee Titans @ Indianapolis Colts Analysis
Over 48 $330/$300
Play Over - Any team against the total (TENNESSEE) - poor rushing team - averaging 3.5 or less rushing yards/carry, after allowing 150 or more rushing yards in 3 straight games.
(26-6 since 1983.) (81.2%, +19.4 units. Rating = 3*)
The average total posted in these games was: 40.4
The average score in these games was: Team 23, Opponent 27 (Total points scored = 50)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 7 or more points was 18 (56.2% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (1-0).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (1-0).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (6-0).
Cleveland Browns @ Carolina Panthers Analysis
Over 37.5 $330/$300
Play Over - Home teams against the total (CAROLINA) - poor passing team (150-185 PY/game) against an average passing defense (185-230 PY/game), after gaining 5.5 or less passing yards/attempt in last game.
(41-12 over the last 5 seasons.) (77.4%, +27.8 units. Rating = 3*)
The average total posted in these games was: 39.4
The average score in these games was: Team 23.5, Opponent 24.3 (Total points scored = 47.
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 7 or more points was 30 (56.6% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (21-5).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (74-51).
Since 1983 the situation's record is: (147-121).
posted by phantom
Oct. 7 2006 9:24pm -
0 likes
HILTON CONTEST PLAYS ( 10/8 ):
( Confirmed )
# 1- NEW ORLEANS
# 2- PITTSBURGH
# 3- DENVER
# 4- KANSAS CITY
# 5- WASHINGTON (tie)
# 5- BUFFALO (tie)
posted by phantom
Oct. 7 2006 9:24pm -
0 likes
Norm Hitzges
NFL
NY Giants -4.5 vs Washington
New England -9.5 vs Miami
San Francisco -3.5 vs Oakland
Carolina -8.5 vs Cleveland
San Diego -3.5 vs Pittsburgh
Dallas +2 vs Philadelphia
NYG/Washington Over 45
Chicago/Buffalo Under 34
Cleveland/Carolina Under 37.5
Denver/Baltimore Under 33
posted by phantom
Oct. 7 2006 9:24pm -
0 likes
Greg Roberts:
YOUR 5* MVP FOOTBALL SELECTION IS:
NEW YORK GIANTS -4' VS. WASHINGTON
Standing at 1-2 on the season and with games at Dallas and Atlanta up next the Giants need this in the worst way. New York has had 2 weeks to prepare after the debacle at Seattle and are chomping at the bit to get back on the field. When Tom Coughlin squads play off a double digit loss against a team with a .500 record or worse they are 12-3 against the spread. We also note that Eli Manning has won and covered every home division game he's started. We think the Giants make a statement here.
YOUR 5* MVP FOOTBALL SELECTION IS:
NEW YORK GIANTS -4'
posted by phantom
Oct. 7 2006 11:27pm -
0 likes
Greg Roberts:
YOUR 3* HI-ROLLER FOOTBALL SELECTION IS:
ARIZONA +3' VS. KANSAS CITY
The Chiefs could be a little overvalued this week after their whitewash of the 49'ers last week. Kansas City has covered only 1 time in its' last 10 chances as a non-conference road favorite and we still believe the Chiefs have some offensive line problems. Look for the Cardinals to stack the line here to stop Larry Johnson and force Damon Huard to eat them up top. Matt Leinart will start for Arizona and he is a definite upgrade over Warner and has the tools at wide receiver and running back to keep the pressure off. Look for Arizona to get their 2nd home win in this one.
YOUR 3* HI-ROLLER FOOTBALL SELECTION IS:
ARIZONA CARDINALS +3'
posted by phantom
Oct. 7 2006 11:28pm -
0 likes
Brandon Lang
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SUNDAY ACTION
40 DIME
Jacksonville Jaguars
You couldn't ask for a better spot for the Jags.
They were caught in a huge flat spot last week at Washington. They had just battled Dallas and Pittsburgh at home, should have beat Indy on the road holding the ball for 39 mintues to Indy's 21.
So you can't fault them for laying an egg at Washington. Now they get a Jet's team they have won and covered 4 straight against. This is going to get ugly.
Jets off 3 straight divisional games. They were really beaten up by New England at home in a game that was a lot more of a blowout than the final score would lead you to believe.
They were given a gift at Buffalo in getting the win and then the crazy game last week at home to Indy.
Now let me take you through what this line should really be.
Let us just say for sake of argument that Jacksonville had beaten the Redskins and Indy had beaten the Jets by 10 or more. People, this line would be 11 today.
Trust me when I tell you, the Jets are not that good. As we learned last week, Indy has no defense and actually made the Jets look better than they really are. They really aren't that good a football team and this is as bad a situation as they could have asked for all year.
They have a pair of rookies on the offensive line facing the best defense they have seen all year on the road. You saw how this J'ville defense just manhandled the Cowboys on this field in the 2nd half in that 24-10 win and in shutting out the Steelers 9-0. I will call for Pennington to be pressured all day, to throw 2 to maybe 3 interceptions and to be sacked at least 5 times in a Jacksonville rout. You will see two things today. You will see how real the Jags are and just how overrated the Jets really are. Jets have played Tennessee, New England, Buffalo and Indy. Those 4 defenses pale in comparison to what the Jets will see today. Jags rebound and rebound big. Lay the number here and watch J'ville blow this team out and win by 17.
40 Dime winner #10 in a row is the Jacksonville Jaguars
20 DIME DOG
Steelers
10 DIME
Redskins
Bills
Chiefs
Steelers
Off a bye week, this Steelers team is a very dangerous animal. They are basically in a must win situation. They lose today and it's 1-3 and an uphill battle to defend their crown. This is a great spot for them. They have won 16 of their last 19 road games SU. Forget about the points, I am talking SU. Cowher is 9-3 ATS his last 12 as a road dog. You saw Rivers struggle last week against the Ravens defense and now he faces a blitzing type Steeler defense. Schottenheimer is trying to protect Rivers and you can't do that in this league. I made the mistake of going against them in that Monday night game but I won't make the mistake here. Big Ben is now ready to play. He wasn't ready versus J'ville, he wasn't ready versus Cincinnati but he is ready now. This is a wounded animal travleling west against a young QB not ready for primetime yet. Chargers have played Oakland, Tennessee and then the loss to Baltimore. The play here is Pittsburgh and I am on them.
Redskins
This Giants secondary couldn't cover my mother in a wheelchair. They are that bad. Now you face a Washington team that has found it's stride. That is what has happened since he simplified the offense for Mark Brunell. They put up 31 at Houston and 36 against a very good J'ville defense last week. Saunders is as good as it gets and the short passing game is working, Portis is running well and the Giants are in trouble. New York is a team of individuals and when you have players calling out coaches in week 3, you have problems. I am not an Eli Manning fan nor Tom Coughlin. I know Washington has struggled here the last two trips but then again, Al Saunders was not the Offensive coordinator. He will be the difference in this game and getting more than a field goal is the way to go in what I feel will be a field goal game. This is a different Washington team facing a Giant team that has no defense. Advantage Redskins. I am on the dog here.
Buffalo
Now everyone knows I had the Bills on Sunday night as that 40 Dime winner. It is bacause of that blowout that this line is as high as it is. It is what I call an "inflated" line. You will get them because the linemaker knows the public will overreact based on what they just saw, which was the blowout of Seattle on National TV. He makes the line 3 points higher fully knowing the general public will bet Chicago. Well, Buffalo will play this team tough. It is a huge flat spot for the Bears. They just hammered the Seahawks to make the statement to the NFC that we are the new sheriff in town and now you have heard everyone praising you all week and you have to get up for Buffalo. Tough spot. You also have Dick Jauron returning to the spot he was fired. He knows this Bears defense. Bills are a lot better than people think and at 14-7 ATS last 21 versus the NFC on the road makes the points a very juicy propostion here. Don't know if the Bills can win the game outright but I am confident that this game is decided by 7 points or less. Play on the Bills.
Chiefs
This is one bad Arizona team. They have a big but slow offensive line. They couldn't protect Kurt Warner against the Falcons defense, what do you think they are going to do against this Chiefs defense, which is statistical the #1 defense in the NFL right now. Leinhart gets the start and even though he is at home, it won't matter. Cardinals are 0-4 ATS this year and on a 6-17 ATS run their last 23 on the vegas board. I am not a fan of Dennis Green. He is overrated as a coach and today will be the start of everyone calling for his firing. People, this is a really bad Cardinal football team that can't run it and in this league, you are not going to win games if you can't run the football. Cards are 4-12 ATS versus AFC teams and 9-23 ATS the next game after losing by 14 or more the previous week. This is a great spot for Kansas City to continue to move forward this year and get back to 2-2 under Herm Edwards. They lost at home to Cincy, were rock solid at Denver losing 9-6 and then came off bye week to hammer the Niners 41-0. Long day for Leinhart as the Chiefs roll by double digits. All Kansas City
posted by phantom
Oct. 7 2006 11:29pm -
0 likes
Denver weather: CLOUDY, RAIN THEN 70% CHANCE SNOW. WIND 11-16 MPH.
Marc Lawrence
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DENVER (-5.5) over Baltimore by 3
Some stats in this business drive us crazy. For example, why is Denver 0-8 ATS off a SU road dog win? It doesn't matter where the Broncos are playing or whether they are favored or dog. They just don't cover. Baltimore fi ts the description of live dog here. The Ravens are 5-1 ATS on Monday night, including four straight covers on ABC. They are also one of the best defensive teams in the league getting more than a FG. That's usually a good combo.
__________________
Sports Gambling Hotline
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LOUISVILLE SERVICE
Your Top-Rated 5* Baltimore-Denver OVER the total.
PHILADELPHIA SERVICE
Your Top-Rated Monday night 10* goes out on Baltimore plus the points.
TOM SCOTT'S SIX STAR MONDAY NIGHT GAME OF THE YEAR!
Baltimore at DENVER - 8:30 PM EST
Play ON: DENVER minus the points
In addition to that 88% pair of angles, here are a couple of team trends to whet your whistle. Denver is 41-9 SU at home against an opponent off a win when the Broncos are coming off a game in which they were held to less than 21 points. Included in those 50 games is a perfect 17-0 ATS mark when playing off a bye week. Baltimore is 1-14 SU in its last 15 road games against winning teams and Denver is 25-3 ATS in its last 28 non-divsion wins against foes off a win.
PREDICTION: DENVER 24- Baltimore 10
Ppp
Nfl Penthouse Picks
2% Denver
__________________
Ben Burns
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TOM=Over
posted by phantom
Oct. 9 2006 5:01pm -
0 likes
Rocketman Sports
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5*Denver
__________________
Bob Balfe/sunday Selections
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awesome week he had..8-2
Denver -5.5 over Baltimore
The first thing that shocks me about this game is how Denver is favored by so much and how the line keeps moving up even though the money is slightly on Baltimore tonight. Baltimore's offense is very overrated and they can thank the schedule makers for a favorable schedule early on the season. The Ravens do have a great defense, but Denver is not to far behind with their stiff defense. The Broncos had two weeks to prepare for this game and Steve McNair will be in for a real shocker tonight. In my opinion Denver is the more complete and balanced team and should get the home win and cover tonight.
Sports Betting Solutions -
Monday, October 9, 2006
8:30 PM
nfl
Baltimore vs. Denver
Premium
Over
$550/$500
33.0 / -105.0
Jim Hurley's 2006 Platinum Club Football
Monday, October 9, 2006
PLATINUM CLUB PLAYS
2 Units
Ravens (+5.5) over Broncos
8:30pm (ET)
2 Units
Ravens / Broncos (Over 33)
8:30pm (
Chip Chirimbes Football
Monday, October 9, 2006
3*
BRONCOS (-5.5) over Ravens
5:30pm(PT
__________________
kelso
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10 Units
Baltimore Ravens (+5½) over DENVER BRONCOS
Prediction: Baltimore by 3-7
Starting Time: 8:35
TV: ESPN
Best Bets Club
3 Units
Over 33 points Baltimore Ravens-DENVER BRONCOS
Prediction: 35 or more points
Starting Time: 8:35
TV: ESPN
2 minute warning
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10-Dime Consensus Club
Consensus Lock
DENVER BRONCOS
ATS Lock Club
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4 units Denver Broncos
__________________
Sebastian
50* DENVER
SSB Wins Sports
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MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL
Baltimore +5.5.....In a battle of very stingy defenses you have to like the points.
Additionally, the public is remembering how Denver played against New England
and is betting them at a 3-1 clip.
Personally I am not completely wild about this game and I am choosing to do a
same game 2 team teaser with: Baltimore +12 and OVER 26.5.....if you take
Baltimore with the points or do the teaser.....they both pay about even money
I'll take the teaser.
posted by phantom
Oct. 9 2006 5:03pm -
0 likes
Infoplays
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NFL
10* MNF Total of the Month on Raven/Broncos Under 33
Fairway Jay: Denver
Sports Network has this Write Up:
(Sports Network) - The Baltimore Ravens and Denver Broncos will each put a pair of impressive streaks on the line when the teams clash in a marquee Monday night matchup from Invesco Field at Mile High.
Baltimore has put together the first 4-0 start in their history and is one of only three teams, along with Indianapolis and Chicago, to remain unbeaten through the season's first four weeks. To keep their unblemished record intact, however, the Ravens will have to knock off a Denver squad which has won 11 consecutive regular season games at home.
A fearsome defense that stands near the top of the NFL in every major category has primarily carried Baltimore so far. The Ravens lead the league in rushing yards allowed (63.3 ypg) and sacks (17) and are tied for first with eight interceptions. The group also ranks second in total yards allowed (219 ypg), third in scoring defense (8.3 ypg) and fourth in passing yards allowed (155.8 ypg).
While the defense has certainly been tremendous, the individual who is perhaps most responsible for Baltimore's perfect mark plays on the other side of the ball. Veteran quarterback Steve McNair has provided leadership and stability to the offense while orchestrating late game-winning drives in each of the last two weeks, including a Week 4 triumph over San Diego in which the former league MVP connected with Todd Heap for a 10-yard touchdown with 34 seconds left that lifted the Ravens to a 16-13 win.
The Broncos have held their own on defense as well, having yielded an average of only 10.3 points over their first three games. Denver stymied Tom Brady and the New England Patriots to earn an impressive 17-7 victory on the road two weeks back, which improved the team's record to 2-1 on the young season. The Broncos had a bye in Week 4.
Denver hasn't lost a regular-season contest at Invesco Field since a 25-24 setback to Oakland on November 28, 2004. The Broncos did drop a 34-17 decision to the eventual world champion Pittsburgh Steelers on their home turf in last January's AFC Championship, however.
SERIES HISTORY
The Ravens lead their all-time regular season series with the Broncos, 3-2, but had a three-game streak in the series snapped with a 12-10 road loss in Week 14 of last season. Baltimore had won the previous two matchups, both at home, and also took a 20-13 matchup in a Monday Night game in 2001.
In addition to the regular season series, the teams have met once in the postseason, with the Ravens scoring a 21-3 home win in a 2000 AFC First-Round Playoff.
Denver's Mike Shanahan is 2-4 in his career against Baltimore, including the playoff loss. The Ravens' Brian Billick is 4-1 against both Shanahan and the Broncos as a head coach.
RAVENS OFFENSE VS. BRONCOS DEFENSE
Although Baltimore has been generally effective on offense, the unit is far from overwhelming. The Ravens rank 28th overall in total yards (270.3 ypg), 27th in passing yards (174.5 ypg) and have made only 15.5 first downs per game. But what separates this offense from some of the lifeless ones Baltimore has trotted out over the last few years is the presence of McNair (746 passing yards, 5 TD, 3 INT). The 33-year-old's season numbers aren't eye-popping, but he's come up big during the times the Ravens have needed him to. McNair seems to have developed a great rapport with tight end Heap, who has caught 19 passes for 159 yards and three touchdowns on the year. He already had a strong connection with top wideout Derrick Mason (20 receptions, 265 yards), a longtime teammate of McNair in Tennessee. Second-year receiver Mark Clayton (15 receptions, 159 yards) is also a reliable target, while Daniel Wilcox (7 receptions, 79 yards) has emerged as a threat near the goal line. The backup tight end scored his second touchdown of the year in last week's win.
McNair will be facing a Denver defense which can be vulnerable against the pass. The Broncos surrendered 320 yards to Brady in Week 3 and have yet to record an interception on the season. The secondary does boast one of the league's premier cover cornerbacks in Champ Bailey (18 tackles), but youngster Darrent Williams (22 tackles) gets picked on often on the opposite side. Free safety John Lynch (15 tackles, 1 PBU) is still a force against the run, but the aging veteran's decline in speed can make him a liability in coverage. Denver was often hurt last season by the lack of a consistent pass rush, which remains a problem area this year. The Broncos have generated only four sacks so far, with defensive ends Ebenzer Ekuban (10 tackles) and Patrick Chukwurah (7 tackles) accounting for 1 1/2 apiece.
The Ravens' normally-strong rushing attack has been rather ordinary in the early going, as the team ranks 23rd in the league with an average of 95.8 yards per game on the ground. Jamal Lewis (268 rushing yards, 1 TD) remains the team's feature back and performed solidly over the first three weeks before struggling through a 15-carry, 34-yard effort against San Diego's sturdy defense last Sunday. Ex-Bronco Mike Anderson (9 carries, 59 yards, 1 TD), who rushed for 1,014 yards for Denver a year ago, has been relegated to third-string duty behind Musa Smith (52 rushing yards). Baltimore's offensive line, a run-of-the-mill group with the exception of perennial Pro Bowl tackle Jonathan Ogden, was further weakened when longtime left guard Edwin Mulitalo suffered a season-ending tear of his right triceps tendon versus the Chargers.
The Broncos struggled stopping the run in their first two games, as both St. Louis' Steven Jackson and Kansas City's Larry Johnson racked up more than 120 yards, but were smothering in that area against New England. The Patriots were limited to 50 yards on the ground and didn't have a rush of more than 10 yards. Weakside linebacker Ian Gold (26 tackles, 2 PBU) had 13 tackles in that game and D.J. Williams (15 tackles) made 10 on the strong side. The pair teams with All-Pro middle linebacker Al Wilson (14 tackles) to give the Broncos a formidable trio. The group is aided by a pair of quality tackles in Gerard Warren and Michael Myers, each of whom have recorded 13 stops on the season.
BRONCOS OFFENSE VS. RAVENS DEFENSE
Although Denver hasn't put a lot of points on the scoreboard, the team has enjoyed its customary success running the football. The Broncos ranked second in the league in rushing yards (158.7) last season and are averaging 150 per game in 2006, the fourth-best mark in the NFL at the moment. Speedster Tatum Bell currently stands fourth among AFC backs with 295 yards and is averaging a robust 5.1 yards per pop behind a seasoned offensive line that excels at zone blocking. Bell amassed 123 yards on a career-high 27 carries in the New England game. Rookie Mike Bell (114 rushing yards, 1 TD) has performed well in spot duty while adding 42 yards on five receptions.
Running the football will be a challenge against a Baltimore front seven that has allowed a mere 2.6 yards per rush and held the dangerous LaDainian Tomlinson (27 carries, 98 yards) mostly in check last week. Middle linebacker Ray Lewis (35 tackles, 1 INT, 3 PBU) is back playing at the level which made him a two-time winner of the NFL's Defensive Player of the Year award, while weakside starter Bart Scott (33 tackles, 1 INT, 4 PBU) earned AFC Defensive Player of the Month honors for his sensational September start. Rookie Dawan Landry (23 tackles) has lent strong support from his strong safety spot, while unheralded tackle Kelly Gregg (18 tackles, 1.5 sacks) anchors a line which rarely gets pushed around.
Broncos quarterback Jake Plummer (567 passing yards, 2 TD, 4 INT) has been inconsistent at best and awful at worst through the team's first three contests. The adventurous signal-caller completed only 15-of-30 passes against New England, but made a number of big plays that impacted Denver's win. Plummer finished with a season-best 256 yards and two touchdowns, both of which went to star wide receiver Javon Walker. The pair hooked up for an 83- yard touchdown early in the fourth quarter that put the game out of reach. Walker has proved he's over the serious knee injury which wrecked nearly all of his 2005 season, as the former Packer is averaging an eye-opening 22.7 yards on his 11 catches. Fellow wideout Rod Smith (11 receptions, 94 yards) is still a factor at age 36, but Denver has struggled to find a reliable third option. Relative unknown David Kircus is the team's next leading receiver with 62 yards on just four grabs.
Denver's sluggish pass game will have to go opposite the Ravens' stellar secondary, arguably the best in the league. Superstar free safety Ed Reed (15 tackles, 1 INT) and cornerbacks Chris McAlister (6 tackles, 2 INT, 4 PBU) and Samari Rolle (10 tackles) have combined for five career Pro Bowl nods, and all three are dynamic playmakers who can change the momentum of any game. Scott, who is tied for the NFL lead with five sacks, and strongside linebacker Adalius Thomas (22 tackles, 3 sacks) have consistently been able to generate heat on quarterbacks from the outside, while end Terrell Suggs (15 tackles, 3 sacks, 1 FF) is a premier pash rusher as well. Suggs (hamstring) and Thomas (neck) are listed as questionable for Monday's tilt, though both are expected to play.
OVERALL ANALYSIS
There's no doubt the Ravens are a legitimate playoff contender, but the team could just as easily be heading into this game at .500 instead of undefeated. A puzzling play call by Cleveland that resulted in a late interception gave Baltimore the opportunity to rally for a win in Week 3, then the Ravens put up nine points over the final three-plus minutes to pull out last week's victory over San Diego. McNair won't be able to weave any late magic against a rested Broncos team that's tough to beat at home and off a bye (8-3 under Shanahan). Plummer's erratic history is a concern against a Baltimore defense that has been sensational this year, but he usually plays well in Denver. Home field advantage and the strong leg of kicker Jason Elam should be enough to knock the Ravens off their unbeaten perch.
Sports Network Predicted Outcome: Broncos 16, Ravens 13
Brandon Lane..lang .Dink
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MONDAY
30 DIME
Ravens
This game tonight comes down to Jake Plummer versus the Ravens defense. Simple as that.
Now, if you look at the Denver Bronocs season so far, they were horrific in a road loss to the Rams, struggling to score 10 points against a team that the Lions lit up for over 30.
They came back home and struggled to beat the Chiefs and a QB named Damon Huard.
They went on the road and beat the Patriots scoring 17 points but both touchdowns came on big plays.
So all this talk about the Broncos being this and that with Plummer I feel is a bit over exaggerated.
I still feel the Broncos have question marks in their young season. I really do and asking them to cover this kind of number against a defense like the Ravens is a bit too much based on what they have shown me.
I know what I am going to get from the Ravens. I am going to get solid defense, a solid play from a Super Bowl QB and former league MVP in Steve McNair and with those two ingriedients, it makes the underdog in this game a very smart play.
When it comes to these two teams, the Ravens have owned the Broncos and Mike Shanahan.
In the last 5 meetings between these two, the Ravens have won 4 in a row and covered all 5.
There is a reason the Ravens are +9 in the turnover department. They are making things happen and on Monday night, I will force Jake Plummer to play a perfect game against this Ravens defense.
My money says he can't. Not this Jake Plummer and not on the lights of Monday night.
I am backing the Ravens here plus the generous amount of points in one I feel will be a field goal game.
Value in the dog as the Ravens make it 6 straight covers versus the Broncos.
Baltimore Ravens are my Monday night pick
posted by phantom
Oct. 9 2006 5:04pm