29 replies
-
0 likes
but I dont see anything yet phantom?
And where the hell have you been bro.? Dont see you in chat as much anymore?
$$$$
posted by close_call
Sept. 26 2006 3:05pm -
0 likes
i'm right behind ya close buddy...... 
posted by phantom
Sept. 26 2006 11:23pm -
0 likes
BYU (2 - 2) at TCU (3 - 0) - 9/28/2006, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TCU is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
TCU is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
TCU is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in a home game where the total is between 42.5 and 49 since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
TCU is 1-0 against the spread versus BYU over the last 3 seasons
TCU is 1-0 straight up against BYU over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
AUBURN (4 - 0) at S CAROLINA (3 - 1) - 9/28/2006, 7:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
AUBURN is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
AUBURN is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
AUBURN is 18-7 ATS (+10.3 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.
AUBURN is 9-0 ATS (+9.0 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
AUBURN is 1-0 against the spread versus S CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
AUBURN is 1-0 straight up against S CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
RUTGERS (4 - 0) at S FLORIDA (3 - 1) - 9/29/2006, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
S FLORIDA is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
S FLORIDA is 1-0 against the spread versus RUTGERS over the last 3 seasons
S FLORIDA is 1-0 straight up against RUTGERS over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
NORTHWESTERN (2 - 2) at PENN ST (2 - 2) - 9/30/2006, 3:30 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
NORTHWESTERN is 2-0 against the spread versus PENN ST over the last 3 seasons
PENN ST is 1-1 straight up against NORTHWESTERN over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
KANSAS (3 - 1) at NEBRASKA (3 - 1) - 9/30/2006, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
KANSAS is 62-90 ATS (-37.0 Units) in all games since 1992.
KANSAS is 62-90 ATS (-37.0 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
KANSAS is 35-57 ATS (-27.7 Units) as an underdog since 1992.
KANSAS is 25-45 ATS (-24.5 Units) in road games since 1992.
KANSAS is 25-45 ATS (-24.5 Units) in road lined games since 1992.
KANSAS is 42-65 ATS (-29.5 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
KANSAS is 57-84 ATS (-35.4 Units) when playing on a Saturday since 1992.
KANSAS is 44-74 ATS (-37.4 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
NEBRASKA is 52-32 ATS (+16.8 Units) in home games since 1992.
NEBRASKA is 52-32 ATS (+16.8 Units) in home lined games since 1992.
NEBRASKA is 35-18 ATS (+15.2 Units) in home games against conference opponents since 1992.
NEBRASKA is 48-25 ATS (+20.5 Units) in home games when playing on a Saturday since 1992.
NEBRASKA is 37-20 ATS (+15.0 Units) in home games when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
NEBRASKA is 52-32 ATS (+16.8 Units) in home games in games played on turf since 1992.
NEBRASKA is 24-11 ATS (+11.9 Units) in home games in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
KANSAS is 2-0 against the spread versus NEBRASKA over the last 3 seasons
NEBRASKA is 1-1 straight up against KANSAS over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
WISCONSIN (3 - 1) at INDIANA (2 - 2) - 9/30/2006, 12:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
WISCONSIN is 18-8 ATS (+9.2 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
WISCONSIN is 18-8 ATS (+9.2 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
WISCONSIN is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in September games over the last 2 seasons.
INDIANA is 39-59 ATS (-25.9 Units) as an underdog since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
INDIANA is 0-0 against the spread versus WISCONSIN over the last 3 seasons
WISCONSIN is 1-0 straight up against INDIANA over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
ILLINOIS (1 - 3) at MICHIGAN ST (3 - 1) - 9/30/2006, 12:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ILLINOIS is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in road games when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
ILLINOIS is 39-68 ATS (-35.8 Units) in games played on turf since 1992.
ILLINOIS is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) in road games off a loss against a conference rival over the last 3 seasons.
ILLINOIS is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in road games after 2 or more consecutive straight up losses over the last 3 seasons.
MICHIGAN ST is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
MICHIGAN ST is 2-0 against the spread versus ILLINOIS over the last 3 seasons
MICHIGAN ST is 2-0 straight up against ILLINOIS over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
HOUSTON (4 - 0) at MIAMI (1 - 2) - 9/30/2006, 6:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
HOUSTON is 1-0 against the spread versus MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
MIAMI is 1-0 straight up against HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
TOLEDO (2 - 2) at PITTSBURGH (3 - 1) - 9/30/2006, 12:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TOLEDO is 35-18 ATS (+15.2 Units) in games played on turf since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
VIRGINIA (1 - 3) at DUKE (0 - 3) - 9/30/2006, 12:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DUKE is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
DUKE is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
DUKE is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
DUKE is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) when playing on a Saturday over the last 2 seasons.
DUKE is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
DUKE is 1-1 against the spread versus VIRGINIA over the last 3 seasons
VIRGINIA is 2-0 straight up against DUKE over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
WYOMING (1 - 3) at SYRACUSE (2 - 2) - 9/30/2006, 1:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SYRACUSE is 16-6 ATS (+9.4 Units) when playing on a Saturday over the last 3 seasons.
SYRACUSE is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
SYRACUSE is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) in non-conference games over the last 3 seasons.
SYRACUSE is 22-9 ATS (+12.1 Units) in home games in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992.
WYOMING is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
LOUISIANA TECH (1 - 2) at CLEMSON (3 - 1) - 9/30/2006, 12:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LOUISIANA TECH is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) as an underdog over the last 3 seasons.
LOUISIANA TECH is 2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) in road games when playing on a Saturday over the last 3 seasons.
LOUISIANA TECH is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in road games in September games over the last 3 seasons.
LOUISIANA TECH is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in non-conference games over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
NAVY (3 - 1) at CONNECTICUT (2 - 1) - 9/30/2006, 12:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NAVY is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) when the line is +3 to -3 over the last 3 seasons.
NAVY is 87-57 ATS (+24.3 Units) in all games since 1992.
NAVY is 87-57 ATS (+24.3 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
NAVY is 58-35 ATS (+19.5 Units) as an underdog since 1992.
NAVY is 43-17 ATS (+24.3 Units) in road games since 1992.
NAVY is 43-17 ATS (+24.3 Units) in road lined games since 1992.
NAVY is 83-54 ATS (+23.6 Units) when playing on a Saturday since 1992.
NAVY is 54-34 ATS (+16.6 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
NAVY is 42-16 ATS (+24.4 Units) in road games in games played on a grass field since 1992.
NAVY is 45-18 ATS (+25.2 Units) in road games in non-conference games since 1992.
NAVY is 22-10 ATS (+11.0 Units) in road games in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
RICE (0 - 4) at ARMY (2 - 2) - 9/30/2006, 3:30 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
BOWLING GREEN (2 - 2) at OHIO U (2 - 2) - 9/30/2006, 2:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
BOWLING GREEN is 2-0 against the spread versus OHIO U over the last 3 seasons
BOWLING GREEN is 2-0 straight up against OHIO U over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
NEW MEXICO (2 - 2) at AIR FORCE (1 - 1) - 9/30/2006, 2:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
AIR FORCE is 40-60 ATS (-26.0 Units) after playing a conference game since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
AIR FORCE is 2-0 against the spread versus NEW MEXICO over the last 3 seasons
AIR FORCE is 2-0 straight up against NEW MEXICO over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
PURDUE (4 - 0) at NOTRE DAME (3 - 1) - 9/30/2006, 2:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PURDUE is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
NOTRE DAME is 1-1 against the spread versus PURDUE over the last 3 seasons
NOTRE DAME is 1-1 straight up against PURDUE over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
KANSAS ST (3 - 1) at BAYLOR (1 - 3) - 9/30/2006, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
KANSAS ST is 71-47 ATS (+19.3 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
BAYLOR is 23-40 ATS (-21.0 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
IDAHO (1 - 3) at UTAH ST (0 - 4) - 9/30/2006, 3:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
IDAHO is 2-0 against the spread versus UTAH ST over the last 3 seasons
UTAH ST is 1-1 straight up against IDAHO over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
BOISE ST (4 - 0) at UTAH (3 - 1) - 9/30/2006, 3:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
UTAH is 33-18 ATS (+13.2 Units) in non-conference games since 1992.
BOISE ST is 59-34 ATS (+21.6 Units) in all games since 1992.
BOISE ST is 59-34 ATS (+21.6 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
BOISE ST is 42-21 ATS (+18.9 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
BOISE ST is 40-13 ATS (+25.7 Units) after playing a conference game since 1992.
BOISE ST is 35-12 ATS (+21.8 Units) off a win against a conference rival since 1992.
BOISE ST is 36-20 ATS (+14.0 Units) after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins since 1992.
BOISE ST is 19-6 ATS (+12.4 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
USC (3 - 0) at WASHINGTON ST (3 - 1) - 9/30/2006, 7:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
USC is 2-0 against the spread versus WASHINGTON ST over the last 3 seasons
USC is 2-0 straight up against WASHINGTON ST over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
CALIFORNIA (3 - 1) at OREGON ST (2 - 1) - 9/30/2006, 4:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CALIFORNIA is 26-44 ATS (-22.4 Units) as a favorite since 1992.
OREGON ST is 35-20 ATS (+13.0 Units) in home games when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
OREGON ST is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
OREGON ST is 1-1 against the spread versus CALIFORNIA over the last 3 seasons
OREGON ST is 1-1 straight up against CALIFORNIA over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
STANFORD (0 - 4) at UCLA (2 - 1) - 9/30/2006, 10:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
UCLA is 9-21 ATS (-14.1 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
UCLA is 1-1 against the spread versus STANFORD over the last 3 seasons
UCLA is 2-0 straight up against STANFORD over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
ALABAMA (3 - 1) at FLORIDA (4 - 0) - 9/30/2006, 3:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ALABAMA is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) in a road game where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
ALABAMA is 1-0 against the spread versus FLORIDA over the last 3 seasons
ALABAMA is 1-0 straight up against FLORIDA over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
MIAMI OHIO (0 - 4) at CINCINNATI (1 - 3) - 9/30/2006, 3:30 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
CINCINNATI is 1-1 against the spread versus MIAMI OHIO over the last 3 seasons
CINCINNATI is 1-1 straight up against MIAMI OHIO over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
C MICHIGAN (2 - 2) at KENTUCKY (2 - 2) - 9/30/2006, 6:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
C MICHIGAN is 6-16 ATS (-11.6 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
SAN DIEGO ST (0 - 3) at SAN JOSE ST (2 - 1) - 9/30/2006, 6:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SAN JOSE ST is 27-13 ATS (+12.7 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
SAN DIEGO ST is 16-5 ATS (+10.5 Units) in road games off a loss against a conference rival since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
SAN DIEGO ST is 1-0 against the spread versus SAN JOSE ST over the last 3 seasons
SAN DIEGO ST is 1-0 straight up against SAN JOSE ST over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
N ILLINOIS (2 - 2) at BALL ST (1 - 3) - 9/30/2006, 6:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
N ILLINOIS is 26-12 ATS (+12.8 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
BALL ST is 2-0 against the spread versus N ILLINOIS over the last 3 seasons
BALL ST is 1-1 straight up against N ILLINOIS over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
MISSISSIPPI ST (1 - 3) at LSU (3 - 1) - 9/30/2006, 12:30 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
LSU is 2-0 against the spread versus MISSISSIPPI ST over the last 3 seasons
LSU is 2-0 straight up against MISSISSIPPI ST over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
TEXAS TECH (3 - 1) at TEXAS A&M (4 - 0) - 9/30/2006, 3:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TEXAS A&M is 19-7 ATS (+11.3 Units) in home games in September games since 1992.
TEXAS TECH is 65-41 ATS (+19.9 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
TEXAS TECH is 84-59 ATS (+19.1 Units) when playing on a Saturday since 1992.
TEXAS TECH is 41-22 ATS (+16.8 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
TEXAS A&M is 1-1 against the spread versus TEXAS TECH over the last 3 seasons
TEXAS A&M is 1-1 straight up against TEXAS TECH over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
GEORGIA (4 - 0) at MISSISSIPPI (1 - 3) - 9/30/2006, 9:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
GEORGIA is 40-23 ATS (+14.7 Units) in road games since 1992.
GEORGIA is 40-23 ATS (+14.7 Units) in road lined games since 1992.
MISSISSIPPI is 7-17 ATS (-11.7 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
MISSISSIPPI is 7-17 ATS (-11.7 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
MISSISSIPPI is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) when playing on a Saturday over the last 2 seasons.
MISSISSIPPI is 7-17 ATS (-11.7 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.
MISSISSIPPI is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) in September games over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
COLORADO (0 - 4) at MISSOURI (4 - 0) - 9/30/2006, 12:30 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
COLORADO is 1-0 against the spread versus MISSOURI over the last 3 seasons
MISSOURI is 1-1 straight up against COLORADO over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
TEMPLE (0 - 4) at VANDERBILT (1 - 3) - 9/30/2006, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TEMPLE is 14-33 ATS (-22.3 Units) in September games since 1992.
TEMPLE is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) in non-conference games over the last 3 seasons.
VANDERBILT is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in September games over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
GEORGIA TECH (3 - 1) at VIRGINIA TECH (4 - 0) - 9/30/2006, 3:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
VIRGINIA TECH is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points over the last 3 seasons.
VIRGINIA TECH is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
VIRGINIA TECH is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
VIRGINIA TECH is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
VIRGINIA TECH is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
VIRGINIA TECH is 19-7 ATS (+11.3 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.
VIRGINIA TECH is 33-15 ATS (+16.5 Units) in September games since 1992.
VIRGINIA TECH is 12-2 ATS (+9.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
VIRGINIA TECH is 2-0 against the spread versus GEORGIA TECH over the last 3 seasons
VIRGINIA TECH is 2-0 straight up against GEORGIA TECH over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
AKRON (2 - 2) at KENT ST (2 - 2) - 9/30/2006, 7:30 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
AKRON is 2-0 against the spread versus KENT ST over the last 3 seasons
AKRON is 2-0 straight up against KENT ST over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
OHIO ST (4 - 0) at IOWA (4 - 0) - 9/30/2006, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OHIO ST is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
OHIO ST is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
OHIO ST is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
OHIO ST is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
OHIO ST is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) when playing on a Saturday over the last 2 seasons.
OHIO ST is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
OHIO ST is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
OHIO ST is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) in road games in September games since 1992.
OHIO ST is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins over the last 2 seasons.
OHIO ST is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
IOWA is 1-1 against the spread versus OHIO ST over the last 3 seasons
IOWA is 1-1 straight up against OHIO ST over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
MICHIGAN (4 - 0) at MINNESOTA (2 - 2) - 9/30/2006, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MICHIGAN is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points over the last 3 seasons.
MICHIGAN is 5-15 ATS (-11.5 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in home games in September games over the last 3 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 10-22 ATS (-14.2 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
MINNESOTA is 2-0 against the spread versus MICHIGAN over the last 3 seasons
MINNESOTA is 1-1 straight up against MICHIGAN over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
TENNESSEE (3 - 1) at MEMPHIS (1 - 2) - 9/30/2006, 12:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TENNESSEE is 4-14 ATS (-11.4 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 17-6 ATS (+10.4 Units) in a road game where the total is between 42.5 and 49 since 1992.
TENNESSEE is 18-7 ATS (+10.3 Units) in road games in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
MEMPHIS is 1-0 against the spread versus TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
TENNESSEE is 1-0 straight up against MEMPHIS over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
SMU (2 - 2) at TULANE (1 - 2) - 9/30/2006, 9:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SMU is 8-19 ATS (-12.9 Units) in road games in September games since 1992.
SMU is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) in road games after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins since 1992.
TULANE is 43-65 ATS (-28.5 Units) as an underdog since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
TULANE is 1-0 against the spread versus SMU over the last 3 seasons
TULANE is 1-0 straight up against SMU over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
NEW MEXICO ST (2 - 1) at UTEP (1 - 2) - 9/30/2006, 9:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW MEXICO ST is 2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
NEW MEXICO ST is 2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
NEW MEXICO ST is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
NEW MEXICO ST is 1-11 ATS (-11.1 Units) when playing on a Saturday over the last 2 seasons.
NEW MEXICO ST is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
UTEP is 2-0 against the spread versus NEW MEXICO ST over the last 3 seasons
UTEP is 2-0 straight up against NEW MEXICO ST over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
COLORADO ST (2 - 1) at FRESNO ST (1 - 2) - 9/30/2006, 10:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
COLORADO ST is 41-24 ATS (+14.6 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
NEVADA (2 - 2) at UNLV (1 - 2) - 9/30/2006, 10:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEVADA is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) in road games when playing on a Saturday over the last 3 seasons.
UNLV is 6-15 ATS (-10.5 Units) when playing on a Saturday over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
UNLV is 1-1 against the spread versus NEVADA over the last 3 seasons
UNLV is 1-1 straight up against NEVADA over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
WASHINGTON (3 - 1) at ARIZONA (2 - 2) - 9/30/2006, 10:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
WASHINGTON is 40-64 ATS (-30.4 Units) after playing a conference game since 1992.
ARIZONA is 7-19 ATS (-13.9 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points since 1992.
ARIZONA is 22-47 ATS (-29.7 Units) as a favorite since 1992.
ARIZONA is 28-51 ATS (-28.1 Units) in home games since 1992.
ARIZONA is 28-51 ATS (-28.1 Units) in home lined games since 1992.
ARIZONA is 27-46 ATS (-23.6 Units) in home games when playing on a Saturday since 1992.
ARIZONA is 43-67 ATS (-30.7 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
ARIZONA is 28-51 ATS (-28.1 Units) in home games in games played on a grass field since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
ARIZONA is 1-1 against the spread versus WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
ARIZONA is 1-1 straight up against WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
OREGON (3 - 0) at ARIZONA ST (3 - 1) - 9/30/2006, 3:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OREGON is 29-11 ATS (+16.9 Units) when the line is +3 to -3 since 1992.
OREGON is 32-17 ATS (+13.3 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
ARIZONA ST is 1-1 against the spread versus OREGON over the last 3 seasons
ARIZONA ST is 1-1 straight up against OREGON over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
E MICHIGAN (0 - 4) at LA LAFAYETTE (0 - 2) - 9/30/2006, 5:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
E MICHIGAN is 6-17 ATS (-12.7 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.
E MICHIGAN is 5-16 ATS (-12.6 Units) in non-conference games since 1992.
LA LAFAYETTE is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) as a favorite since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
E MICHIGAN is 1-0 against the spread versus LA LAFAYETTE over the last 3 seasons
E MICHIGAN is 1-0 straight up against LA LAFAYETTE over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
ARKANSAS ST (1 - 2) at FLA INTERNATIONAL (0 - 4) - 9/30/2006, 6:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ARKANSAS ST is 22-10 ATS (+11.0 Units) after 2 or more consecutive straight up losses since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
ARKANSAS ST is 1-0 against the spread versus FLA INTERNATIONAL over the last 3 seasons
ARKANSAS ST is 1-0 straight up against FLA INTERNATIONAL over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
TROY ST (1 - 3) at UAB (1 - 3) - 9/30/2006, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
UAB is 13-26 ATS (-15.6 Units) as a favorite since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
UAB is 1-0 against the spread versus TROY ST over the last 3 seasons
UAB is 1-0 straight up against TROY ST over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
MIDDLE TENN ST (2 - 2) at NORTH TEXAS (1 - 3) - 9/30/2006, 7:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
NORTH TEXAS is 2-0 against the spread versus MIDDLE TENN ST over the last 3 seasons
NORTH TEXAS is 2-0 straight up against MIDDLE TENN ST over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
FLA ATLANTIC (0 - 4) at LA MONROE (1 - 2) - 9/30/2006, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
FLA ATLANTIC is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
FLA ATLANTIC is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
FLA ATLANTIC is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) when playing on a Saturday over the last 2 seasons.
FLA ATLANTIC is 2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
LA MONROE is 2-0 against the spread versus FLA ATLANTIC over the last 3 seasons
LA MONROE is 2-0 straight up against FLA ATLANTIC over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
posted by phantom
Sept. 26 2006 11:24pm -
0 likes
Rockys Newsletter
Guaranteed Best Bet...Nebraska
Game Of The Week...Air Force
100% System....Kansas St And Troy St
System Play Of The Week...Fla International
One Of The Selectors Is Nighthawk 4-0 Has Iowa
Over/Under Play Of The Week...LSU/Miss St Over
posted by phantom
Sept. 27 2006 1:48am -
0 likes
Pointwise NFL and COLLEGE writeups
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
COLLEGE KEY RELEASES
WASHINGTON over Arizona RATING: 1
LSU over Mississippi State RATING: 1
SAN DIEGO STATE over San Jose St RATING: 2
HOUSTON over Miami RATING: 3
AIR FORCE over New Mexico RATING: 3
ALABAMA over Florida RATING: 4
KENT STATE over Akron RATING: 5
VANDERBILT over Temple RATING: 5
Georgia 27 - MISSISSIPPI 0 - (9:00) --Narrow escape for 27-pt chalk 'Dawgs vs
LW, with insertion of QB Cox doing the trick (10-of-13). Overcame 13-0, with
winning 20-yd pass in last 0:46. Scoring "D" now at 6.3 ppg. OleMiss has now
been outscored, 247-93, in last 8 outings, with a miserable 0.8 ypr vs Wake.
MISSOURI 31 - Colorado 7 - (12:30) --Super Buff effort in wrenching loss at Ga.
Had 115th "O", before 29-yd edge in that one. Held Bulldogs to 2.0 ypr, & may
need repeat, if they are to stay with oncoming Tigers (4-0 just 4th time since
1925). Balanced (841 RYs, 1,043 PYs), along with 2nd rated "D". Home call.
VANDERBILT 41 - Temple 0 - (7:00) --Again & again! Owl streak now at 16 &
counting (3 wins in last 38). Finally a TD in loss to WMich, but a 672-117 pt
deficit since LY. Thus, Vandy's quest for 2-game run is assured. Note 'Dores
losing by just 3 at 'Bama & by 2 in 240-RY effort vs Arkansas. It all continues.
VIRGINIA TECH 34 - Georgia Tech 14 - (3:30) --First RG for the Jackets, who
are just 4 pts (NoDame) from 4-0 start. But note just 14, 14 FDs, & 119, 105
RYs vs Irish & Cavs. 3rd straight HG for Hokies, who managed just 2 "O" TDs
vs Cincy, & trailed in 4th. But Ore (170 yds LW) has Tech running gm purring.
KENT STATE 27 - Akron 20 - (7:30) --Why not? Flashes have won 2 straight
(both away), on heels of 11-game slide, covering by 15 & 42 pts. QB Edelman
steady, & check holding BG's 7th ranked run "O" to just 3.5 ypr. Zips went to
the mat in last 2 RGs, & looking for a running game (78 ypg). Upsets the rule.
Ohio State 30 - IOWA 21 - (8:00) --Miracle cover for Bucks vs PennSt, with two
INTs (61 & 55 yds) taken the distance in the final 2½ minutes. And covered
on late 52-yd FG vs Cincy. Thus losing a bit of magic. But covered only RG by
19½ (Texas). Hawks off to 4-0 start, but highly unimpressive. We stay away.
Michigan 27 - MINNESOTA 26 - (8:00) --Slight letdown for Wolves LW (3 Henne
INTs), but still a 2-TD win. Now have a 729-74 RY edge for the season. May
need it, as the Gophers had a 264-94 RY edge, LY, in snapping series losing
skein. Minny played Purdue even-up on the stat column, behind Cupito. Tight.
Tennessee 24 - MEMPHIS 22 - (12:00 - ESPN) --First RG for the Vols, who
have Georgia & Alabama on deck. QB Ainge has been steady (70-of-106), but
that UT run game iffy at best (34 ypg vs AF & Fla). Tigers below 100 RYs last
2 outings, but are a 6-0 series spread play, & dog is 20-7 ATS in Memphis gms.
TULANE 33 - Smu 23 -(9:00 - CSTV) --Like the Saints on the previous Monday
Night, this marks the Greenies' 1st HG since '04. Obviously, couldn't stay with
LSU, so prefer to point to previous game: upset win over MissSt, with 4 Ricard
TD passes. Ponies have 100-23 pt edge last 2 games (Willis: 9 TDs). Not hr.
UTEP 31 - New Mexico State 17 - (9:00) --Still no rushing for Miners (103rd in
land), who lost to NewMex, despite zero picks from QB Palmer. Averaging 35
ppg in last 25 outings, but allowing same 35 ppg in last 8 games. First RG for
Ags. Can't run, but had 29-15 FD edge vs NewMex. TOs (11) are killing 'em.
FRESNO STATE 28 - Colorado State 13 - (10:00) --Both these squads had last
week off. Rams are normally a super dog play, but went down by 15 pts ATS in
their only such role to date. Only 40 RYpg for ColoSt in lined affairs, & QB
Hanie unreliable. The dog is 7-0 ATS in Fresno games, but this a Bulldog call.
Nevada 24 - UNLV 23 - (10:00) --The Rebels are in off a bye, following their rout
at the hands of Hawaii (Hinds: just 13-of-37). But they stayed with IowaSt, &
host is 9-2 ATS in Unlv tilts. Pack had 5 takeaways LW, & 5 INTs the past 2
wks. Balanced behind Rowe (36-of-42 last 2 wks) & Hubbard. Near the spot.
Washington 27 - ARIZONA 19 - (10:00) --Both teams are caught in USC/UCLA
sandwiches. 'Zona stayed with mighty Trojans, but has 369 & 227 yd deficits
past 2 wks, averaging just 29 RYs in lined games. Huskies in off overcoming
16-0 deficit, behind 3 Stanbach TDs, which has to represent turnaround. Ditto.
Oregon 33 - ARIZONA STATE 31 - (3:30) --Four crucial INTS for Devil QB
Carpenter vs Cal. Suns now have a 303-267 pt edge in their last 9 lined games,
so little breathing room. Ducks rested off gift win over Okies (2 wrong calls),
but check >500 yds vs Sooners behind QB Dixon & RB Stewart. Barnburner.
TUESDAY
TULSA 31 - So Mississippi 17 - (7:30 - ESPN) --Second straight Tuesday Nite
game for the Eagles, who stepped out vs NCSt, behind QB Young & RB Fletcher.
But 'Cane OT win over Navy (blocked PAT) may signal "buy". Took this one with
ease LY (Wise Points), & are on a 12-3 ATS run. QB Smith leads this comfy win.
WEDNESDAY
MARSHALL 24 - Central Florida 20 - (7:30 - ESPN2) --Well aware of the fact
that the Herd has a 98-24 pt deficit in lined affairs, but trips to WestVa, KansSt, &
Tenn (allowed Vols 8.5 yds per play) result in such numbers. Central not the best
of revenge plays, & has been stung for 40 ppg in its last 4 lined affairs. We pass.
THURSDAY
TCU 31 - Byu 17 - (7:00 - CSTV) --Thirteen straight wins for rested Frogs, who
held TexTech without a TD in last outing. Epitome of efficiency, with nary a TO
in '06, averaging 38.3 ppg in previous 10 lined games. Beck for Beck in that
Coog wipeout of UtahSt, but just 18 ppg on the road. Despite revenge angle.
Auburn 30 - SOUTH CAROLINA 10 - (7:30 - ESPN) --Fourth straight HG for the
'Cocks, but the host was outscored 33-0 in SC's first 2 lined games. Solid "D",
but just 7½ ppg vs decent foes. Title surely fits Tigs, who give this full focus,
after lackadaisical effort vs Buffalo. Auburn "D" (just 6 ppg) should dominate it.
FRIDAY
Rutgers 24 - SOUTH FLORIDA 14 - (8:00 - ESPN2) --Knights off to best start
in 25 yrs. Rice (166.3 RYpg) leads a nicely balance "O", & that Rutgers run "D" is
allowing only 30 ypg in lined contests. Bulls hung tuff at Kansas, despite a time
deficit of 35:40-24:20. The TO killed Knights LY (Wise Points), so call revenge.
SATURDAY
PENN STATE 27 - Northwestern 17 - (3:30) --Lions did themselves proud in
trip to Columbus, trailing only 7-6 in 4th. Were eventually killed by green QBing,
but note 135 RYs for Hunt vs Bucks. 'Cats missed cover at Nevada on late INT
return, themselves, but "O" has awakened (246 RYs). Played PennSt tuff LY.
NEBRASKA 31 - Kansas 16 - (7:00) --Barmann (for Meier) a solid 25-for-35, for
273 yds & no picks, in late Jay cover vs SoFla. And that KU rush "D" is now at
82 ypg. Huskers overland: 252, 261, & 316, vs likes of LaTech, Nicholls, &
Troy, but only 58 vs USC. Jay stop unit formidable, but lack of "O" settles this.
Wisconsin 30 - INDIANA 10 - (12:00) --Third straight HG for Hoosiers, but it will
make little difference. Ran for zero yds LW, & now at 73 RYs per lined contest.
Only TD vs UConn came via a KO return. Allowing 33.5 ppg in last 8 outings,
quick bounceback shot for Badgers & Hill, who were held to 12 RYs at Mich.
MICHIGAN STATE 48 - Illinois 14 - (12:00) --Regrouping may be impossible for
Spartans, who self-destructed vs ND, blowing 37-21 lead in 4th, despite RY
edge of 248-47. Couldn't meet a better foe, as Illini are 140½ pts behind spread
last 11 tilts, have 12 TOs already, & were mauled for 1,192 yds last 2 vs State.
MIAMI-FLORIDA 28 - Houston 22 - (6:00) --Miami,which had LW off,stands at
1-2 for 1st time since '97. Check rushing totals of 2, & 64 yds in lined games,
along with an 0-5 spread slide, by 23.6 ppg in 4 of those 5. Coog QB Kolb is
48-of-58 past 2 wks, & in off 4-TD showing vs OklaSt. Houston rarely out of it.
Toledo 34 - PITTSBURGH 31 - (12:00) --Four more TD passes for Palko LW
(Citadel), who now has 6 scoring tosses of at least 49 yds. But remember, the
Panthers lost their last HG by 18 pts ATS. Rockets looking for running "O" (78
ypg), & their QBing situation is still fluid, but 43 & 33 pts vs IowaSt & Kansas.
Virginia 20 - DUKE 17 - (12:00) --Chance for young Cavs to break out, but they
sure look inept. Only 13, 11, 13, & 9 FDs to date, along with a 62-20 pt road
deficit. Imps are rested, but hardly signifies success. Can't run, but had >300
PYs vs Wake, before losing QB Lewis vs VTech. Host always a look in VA tilts.
SYRACUSE 19 - Wyoming 13 - (1:30) --"D" vs "D" here. Two straight wins for
'Cuse, while recording 14 sacks. But check only 11, 14, 17, & 15 FDs, & have
now lost WR Smith (collarbone), possibly their best player. 'Pokes travel far for
this AF/NMex sandwich. Allowed only 1 TD, & 72 RYpg before loss to AirForce.
CLEMSON 50 - Louisiana Tech 13 - (12:00) --Any doubts? Tigers put letdown
theory to rest with that annihilation of Heels (354 yd, 22 FD edges, 29-pt cover).
And remember >300 combined yd edge vs BC & FlaSt. Tech always a road
midget, is now allowing >544 ypg & 26 FDpg away, & has Boise dead ahead.
Navy 27 - CONNECTICUT 24 - (12:00) --Want no part of this. Mids in off brutal
OT loss, via blocked PAT. Still hitting at 34.2 ppg in last 19 outings, with nearly
unstoppable run game. But UConn had 257-0 rush edge at Indy (Caulley: 155
yds), not allowing offensive TD. Navy 9-1 ATS away; Huskies 6-1 ATS hosts.
ARMY 30 - Rice 19 - (3:30 - ESPNU) --Admittedly, going with the Cadets in the
chalk role, a bit daunting, but the Owls, who've allowed 41 ppg in their last 19
contests, provide the perfect opportunity. Rice (114th rated "O") in off 52-7 &
55-2 routs. Army definite step down in class, but towel may have been tossed.
Bowling Green 27 - OHIO U 21 - (2:00) --As figured, OU was never in it at
Mizzou, & now has a 55-13 pt deficit the past 2 wks, along with 350 RY deficit.
Falcs yet to cover (minus 67 pts vs spot), but own the series. Barnes the edge.
AIR FORCE 38 - New Mexico 20 - (2:00) --What happened? Lobos suddenly
alive, coming from 197-33 RY deficit to 193-30 RY edge in a wk (Ferguson:
162 yd vs Utep). But this is 1st HG for 'Falcs, who ran for 327 yds vs Wyoming's
solid "D", while posting a 40:25-19:35 time edge. AF, despite Navy next week.
NOTRE DAME 44 - Purdue 34 - (2:30 - NBC) --Let's see. Irish QB Quinn had
5 TD tosses in miracle comeback win over MichSt, which is the exact amount
he recorded vs Boilers in '05. Still no running game for ND (2.7 ypr so far), &
Boilers can move it, behind Painter (48-of-66 last 2 wks). Another wild affair.
ADDED GAMES
LA-LAFAYETTE 21 - East Mich 20 FLA-INTERN'L 28 - Arkansas St 16
ALA-BIRMINGHAM 21 -Troy 17 NORTH TEXAS 23 - Mid Tenn St 20
LA-MONROE 16 - Florida Atlantic 3
BAYLOR 23 - Kansas State 22 - (7:00) --First loss for KSt's Prince, as failure of
'Cat running game (84 RYpg 3 of 4 outings), proved their undoing. Only TD vs
LV came on 69-yd run in 4th. Bears couldn't handle the chalk role in OT loss to
Army, & last 2 BU games decided by 2 pts & in OT. Call 3rd straight nailbiter.
UTAH STATE 20 - Idaho 14 - (3:00) --Pits vs Pits. Aggies, of course, own the
worst "O" in the land, & now have a 144-7 pt deficit (no "O" pts). But Vandals
allowing 47 ppg in their last 9 travellers. "Now-or-Never" law applies perfectly.
UTAH 34 - Boise State 24 - (3:00) --Twenty-one straight WAC wins for Boise,
but Zabransky's 3 TD passes, along with Johnson's 178 RYs, were almost
completely neutralized by a 34 pt, 476 yd "D" showing vs Hawaii. Enter Utes,
whose last 4 covers have come by 27, 17, 36½, 28, & 22 pts. Call homer here.
So California 34 - WASHINGTON STATE 13 - (7:00) --Troy unimpressive last 2
wks, but still on 48-2 SU run. Nothing wrong with their "D", which has held last
2 foes to 9 FDpg & 26 RYpg, & "O" potential behind Booty & Moody still there.
Coogs rolled over Stanford's paper "D", but Brink & Co find going much tuffer.
California 34 - OREGON STATE 30 - (4:00) --Cal reaped home field harvest for
3-game 143-54 pt edge, behind 11 Longshore TD throws, runs of scintillating
Lynch, & opportunistic "D". But Beavers, who've been dominant vs EWash &
Idaho have 13 takeaways themselves. Until Bears prove themselves on road.
UCLA 40 - Stanford 13 - (10:15) --The futility of Card rush "D" (worst in nation)
continues. Allowing 312 RYpg, with ATS losses of 26, 12, 29, & 16½ pts. Try
11 FDs vs WashSt. Bruins saw 16-0 lead dissolve into 29-19 loss at Wash (no
TDs final 53½ minutes), but shot at bounceback won't be wasted. Uclans roll.
FLORIDA 29 - Alabama 13 - (3:30) --Gators keep doing it. Now a 102-14 pt
edge at home, with Leak at 12 TD passes. And check allowing just 16.3 RYpg
last 3 outings. Have LSU, Auburn, & Georgia on deck, but can't look past the
Tide, which dominated Arkies, only to miss 3 chip shot FGs, & overtime PAT.
CINCINNATI 27 - Miami-Ohio 18 - (3:30) --Bearcats feel like runner with weights
removed. In off OhioSt, & VaTech (2 pts from covering both, holding them to
<5 ypr). Miami is yet to win, & sports an "O" line which has allowed 14 sacks
the past 2 weeks (Kent & 'Cuse). 'Hawks romped LY, but things have changed.
KENTUCKY 31 - Central Michigan 20 - (6:00) --On first glance, 'Cats as chalks
seem a poor play, but Wise Points says differently. Can't run (91st, & 200 RY
deficit LW), but got the cover at Florida, thanks to QB Woodson's 26-of-37.
Chips 4-0 ATS, but also can't run, & needed OT to slip by winless EMich. UK.
San Diego State 38 - SAN JOSE STATE 20 - (6:00) --Eliminate those 342 RYs
that Spartans posted vs Stanford sieve, & they average just 108 RYs. Trafalis
is super 62-of-82 this year, so a shot at ending series futility. But Aztecs had
204 RYs vs Utah (Henderson: >8 ypr). SDSt always get it with much to spare.
Northern Illinois 31 - BALL STATE 17 - (6:30) --Call reversal of '05 final. Wolfe
has now run for 171, 196, 263, & 198 yds (4 TDs LW - led 48-0 in 3rd). BSt at
39 RYpg last 3, & has been stung for 867 PYs last 2. Buck MAC dog trend.
LOUISIANA STATE 45 - Mississippi State 3 - (12:30) --Finally! Bulldogs got
the OT win at Uab, & are now on a 36-10 pt run. Rush "D" has always been
there, & now a bit of "O". But the Bengals, who have Florida up next, have won
their 3 HGs by 42, 42, & 42 pts, allowing just 2 TDs in last 22 quarters. Romper!
Texas Tech 27 - TEXAS A&M 21 - (3:30) --Check it out. The Aggies have the
#1 passing "D" in the nation, while the Raiders are fortunate not to be 0-2 on
the road, so A&M should control things, right? Possibly, but despite their guest
shortcomings, note Raider QB Harrell in off 5 TD effort. Cannot get involved.
posted by phantom
Sept. 27 2006 1:49am -
0 likes
Tuesday, September 26, 2006
Southern Miss(-5) at U-C-F
Power Rating Projection:
Southern Miss 27 U-C-F 22
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Southern Miss 24 U-C-F 20
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Thursday, September 28, 2006
Brigham Young(+5) at Texas Christian
Power Rating Projection:
Texas Christian 30 Brigham Young 18
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Texas Christian 28 Brigham Young 16
Auburn(-13½) at South Carolina
Power Rating Projection:
Auburn 32 South Carolina 19
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Auburn 31 South Carolina 19
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Friday, September 29, 2006
Rutgers(-3½) at South Florida
Power Rating Projection:
Rutgers 25 South Florida 23
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Rutgers 21 South Florida 20
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Saturday, September 30, 2006
Northwestern(+18) at Penn State
Power Rating Projection:
Penn State 30 Northwestern 17
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Penn State 27 Northwestern 14
Kansas(+21) at Nebraska
Power Rating Projection:
Nebraska 36 Kansas 15
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Nebraska 35 Kansas 13
Wisconsin(-11) at Indiana
Power Rating Projection:
Wisconsin 27 Indiana 21
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Wisconsin 24 Indiana 17
Illinois(+26½) at Michigan State
Power Rating Projection:
Michigan State 36 Illinois 11
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Michigan State 40 Illinois 3
Michigan State (1 star)
Historical trend: Take Michigan State ( Domination by Michigan State, 6-0, 100.0% )
Historical trend: Take Michigan State ( Domination by favorite, 6-0, 100.0% )
Houston(+15½) at Miami-Florida
Power Rating Projection:
Miami-Florida 29 Houston 22
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Miami-Florida 27 Houston 21
Toledo(+14½) at Pittsburgh
Power Rating Projection:
Pittsburgh 36 Toledo 21
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Pittsburgh 38 Toledo 24
Virginia(-6½) at Duke
Power Rating Projection:
Virginia 25 Duke 19
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Virginia 20 Duke 14
Historical trend: Take Duke ( Domination by home team, 6-2, 75.0% )
Wyoming(+6) at Syracuse
Power Rating Projection:
Syracuse 24 Wyoming 18
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Syracuse 19 Wyoming 13
Louisiana Tech(+34½) at Clemson
Power Rating Projection:
Clemson 44 Louisiana Tech 16
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Clemson 48 Louisiana Tech 20
Navy(+2½) at Connecticut
Power Rating Projection:
Connecticut 25 Navy 19
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Connecticut 20 Navy 14
Rice(+10½) at Army
Power Rating Projection:
Army 34 Rice 15
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Army 31 Rice 13
Bowling Green(+4½) at Ohio
Power Rating Projection:
Ohio 27 Bowling Green 24
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Ohio 26 Bowling Green 23
Historical trend: Take Bowling Green ( Domination by Bowling Green, 7-0, 100.0% )
New Mexico(+12½) at Air Force
Power Rating Projection:
New Mexico 31 Air Force 29
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
New Mexico 35 Air Force 34
Historical trend: Take Air Force ( Domination by home team, 6-2, 75.0% )
Purdue(+15) at Notre Dame
Power Rating Projection:
Notre Dame 37 Purdue 28
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Notre Dame 43 Purdue 34
Kansas State(+2½) at Baylor
Power Rating Projection:
Baylor 28 Kansas State 25
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Baylor 27 Kansas State 24
Idaho(-2½) at Utah State
Power Rating Projection:
Utah State 28 Idaho 25
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Utah State 28 Idaho 26
Boise State(+4) at Utah
Power Rating Projection:
Utah 29 Boise State 26
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Utah 30 Boise State 28
Southern Cal(-17) at Washington State
Power Rating Projection:
Southern Cal 34 Washington State 15
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Southern Cal 31 Washington State 13
California(-9½) at Oregon State
Power Rating Projection:
California 35 Oregon State 23
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
California 38 Oregon State 26
Stanford(+23½) at U.C.L.A.
Power Rating Projection:
U.C.L.A. 36 Stanford 19
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
U.C.L.A. 42 Stanford 12
U.C.L.A. (1 star)
Historical trend: Take Stanford ( Domination by Stanford, 7-1, 87.5% )
Historical trend: Take Stanford ( Domination by underdog, 7-1, 87.5% )
Alabama(+13) at Florida
Power Rating Projection:
Florida 25 Alabama 11
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Florida 20 Alabama 6
Historical trend: Take Alabama ( Domination by Alabama, 4-0, 100.0% )
Historical trend: Take Alabama ( Domination by underdog, 4-0, 100.0% )
Miami-Ohio(+8) at Cincinnati
Power Rating Projection:
Cincinnati 26 Miami-Ohio 17
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Cincinnati 21 Miami-Ohio 12
Central Michigan(+6½) at Kentucky
Power Rating Projection:
Central Michigan 27 Kentucky 26
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Kentucky 34 Central Michigan 20
Kentucky (1 star)
San Diego State(-2½) at San Jose State
Power Rating Projection:
San Jose State 25 San Diego State 24
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
San Jose State 21 San Diego State 20
Northern Illinois(-7) at Ball State
Power Rating Projection:
Northern Illinois 28 Ball State 25
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Northern Illinois 28 Ball State 26
Mississippi State(+32) at Louisiana State
Power Rating Projection:
Louisiana State 37 Mississippi State 1
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Louisiana State 37 Mississippi State 0
Historical trend: Take Louisiana State ( Domination at home by Louisiana State, 4-0, 100.0% )
Historical trend: Take Louisiana State ( Domination by Louisiana State, 8-0, 100.0% )
Historical trend: Take Louisiana State ( Domination by favorite, 6-2, 75.0% )
Texas Tech(+1) at Texas A+M
Power Rating Projection:
Texas A+M 24 Texas Tech 23
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Texas Tech 27 Texas A+M 14
Texas Tech (1 star)
Angle: Fourth Straight Home Game
Go against Texas A+M ( Won previous three games, Favored in 1st three games, 6-15, 28.6% )
Georgia(-17½) at Mississippi
Power Rating Projection:
Georgia 32 Mississippi 2
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Georgia 42 Mississippi 0
Georgia (1 star)
Colorado(+14½) at Missouri
Power Rating Projection:
Missouri 28 Colorado 18
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Missouri 28 Colorado 17
Temple(+34) at Vanderbilt
Power Rating Projection:
Vanderbilt 44 Temple 6
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Vanderbilt 42 Temple 6
Georgia Tech(+9) at Virginia Tech
Power Rating Projection:
Virginia Tech 28 Georgia Tech 15
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Virginia Tech 23 Georgia Tech 10
Akron(-3) at Kent State
Power Rating Projection:
Akron 19 Kent State 15
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Akron 15 Kent State 10
Historical trend: Take Akron ( Domination by visiting team, 7-1, 87.5% )
Historical trend: Take Akron ( Domination on the road by Akron, 4-0, 100.0% )
Ohio State(-7) at Iowa
Power Rating Projection:
Ohio State 29 Iowa 20
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Ohio State 27 Iowa 17
Historical trend: Take Ohio State ( Domination by favorite, 6-0, 100.0% )
Michigan(-9½) at Minnesota
Power Rating Projection:
Michigan 33 Minnesota 27
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Michigan 38 Minnesota 31
Tennessee(-13) at Memphis
Power Rating Projection:
Tennessee 27 Memphis 17
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Tennessee 23 Memphis 13
S-M-U(-2½) at Tulane
Power Rating Projection:
S-M-U 33 Tulane 19
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
S-M-U 32 Tulane 19
New Mexico State(+16½) at UTEP
Power Rating Projection:
UTEP 36 New Mexico State 22
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
UTEP 38 New Mexico State 24
Colorado State(+12½) at Fresno State
Power Rating Projection:
Fresno State 32 Colorado State 16
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Fresno State 30 Colorado State 13
Historical trend: Take Fresno State ( Domination by home team, 4-0, 100.0% )
Nevada-Reno(-4) at Nevada-Las Vegas
Power Rating Projection:
Nevada-Reno 29 Nevada-Las Vegas 27
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Nevada-Reno 31 Nevada-Las Vegas 28
Historical trend: Take Nevada-Las Vegas ( Domination by home team, 6-1, 85.7% )
Washington(+4) at Arizona
Power Rating Projection:
Washington 24 Arizona 22
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Washington 20 Arizona 18
Historical trend: Take Washington ( Domination by underdog, 8-0, 100.0% )
Oregon(-1½) at Arizona State
Power Rating Projection:
Oregon 35 Arizona State 27
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Oregon 40 Arizona State 33
Eastern Michigan(+6½) at UL-Lafayette
Power Rating Projection:
UL-Lafayette 24 Eastern Michigan 19
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
UL-Lafayette 19 Eastern Michigan 14
Arkansas State(+7½) at Florida Intl
Power Rating Projection:
Florida Intl 34 Arkansas State 17
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Florida Intl 34 Arkansas State 17
Troy(+8½) at U-A-B
Power Rating Projection:
U-A-B 27 Troy 14
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
U-A-B 21 Troy 9
Middle Tennessee(+2½) at North Texas
Power Rating Projection:
North Texas 24 Middle Tennessee 23
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
North Texas 20 Middle Tennessee 19
Historical trend: Take North Texas ( Domination by North Texas, 5-0, 100.0% )
Florida Atlantic(+13½) at UL-Monroe
Power Rating Projection:
UL-Monroe 36 Florida Atlantic 13
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
UL-Monroe 34 Florida Atlantic 10
Eastern Illinois at Hawaii
Power Rating Projection:
Hawaii 58 Eastern Illinois 9
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Hawaii 64 Eastern Illinois 16
Maine at Boston College
Power Rating Projection:
Boston College 37 Maine 0
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Boston College 45 Maine 0
Northern Iowa at Iowa State
Power Rating Projection:
Iowa State 35 Northern Iowa 0
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Iowa State 44 Northern Iowa 0
Sam Houston State at Texas
Power Rating Projection:
Texas 63 Sam Houston State 0
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Texas 69 Sam Houston State 6
Liberty at Wake Forest
Power Rating Projection:
Wake Forest 28 Liberty 0
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Wake Forest 37 Liberty 0
posted by phantom
Sept. 27 2006 1:51am -
0 likes
power sweep
4 air force
3 ucla
3 ariz st
2 kentucky
2 louisiana lft
underdog unlv
4 new england
3 dallas
2 carolina
2 houston
3 lions under44
3 falcons over 41'
3 colts over45
2 bengals under 45'
2 ravens under 33
posted by phantom
Sept. 27 2006 2:28pm -
0 likes
sTRAGETIC SPORTS
HES 6-0 in this contest..hes the leader so far with Tom Freese
he has Texas Tech
Tom Freese is also 6-0
he has the JAGS
this is Wiseguys Contest
posted by phantom
Sept. 27 2006 2:30pm -
0 likes
College Analysis
KEY TO FOOTBALL ANALYSES
Home team in CAPS. *â€â€indicates night game. Statistics after game writeups are listed in the following order: Score of game, first downs, rushing attempts/rushing yards, passes completed/passes attempted/passes intercepted/passing yards, and fumbles lost. In each statistical category the leader is listed first. Scores and pointspreads (in parentheses) are results of most recent meetings in series. Pâ€â€Pick Game. SRâ€â€Series Record (official league games only), with team leading in series, number of games won, lost and tied. NLâ€â€No Line. OPRâ€â€Average Opponents’ Power Rating (at the time they met) of all TGS-rated teams played. TGS Key Releases are underlined and denoted with a star ().
Some frequently-appearing abbreviations. HCâ€â€Head Coach (also, college Homecoming Game, when listed in score line). “Oâ€
posted by phantom
Sept. 27 2006 2:33pm -
0 likes
The Pinnacle Pulse - Sept. 27th, 2006
The Inside Wagering Line From Pinnacle Sports Book By Simon Noble
Until recently, sharp players routinely turned a profit using very little handicapping and simply playing underdogs. Blindly betting every home dog of +7.5 or more during NFL season became a staple that regularly cashed at the window. Then this traditional handicapping technique stopped working to the point that these “bread and butterâ€
posted by phantom
Sept. 27 2006 7:48pm -
0 likes
Marc Lawrence Playbook
S Mississippi over C FLORIDA by 3
With ten days to think about that come-from-ahead loss to South
Florida, expect Central Florida to play real hard tonight. Sadly, for
the Golden Knights, Southern Miss comes in with a 9-2 ATS mark
against avenging teams and a 7-3 ATS log in its last ten tries as
road chalk. Too early in the week for us to get serious.
5 BEST BET
Whether Kansas opts for freshman QB Kerry Meier (missed
last game with sore shoulder) or senior Adam Barmann
(former starter fi lled in last week), it won't much matter
here today. That's because Big Red has had this game
circled in Red ever since last year's 25-point whack job in
Lawrence. It snapped a 25-game win streak by the Huskers
in the series and, best of all, they've got personnel on hand
to do something about it. Nebraska is 18-4 ATS in its last
22 SU revenge wins, including 12-1 ATS against a winning
opponent. They've also balanced their offense in '06,
averaging 224 yards on the ground and 284 yards in the air.
Coupled with the 6th best defense in the land it looks like a
long day in Lincoln for the Wildcats today. Cream Corn.
NEBRASKA over Kansas by 31
S FLORIDA over Rutgers by 1
Last year, in New Jersey, South Florida scored a season-high 45
points in its win over Rutgers, one of only two home losses for the
Knights on the year. The Bulls just ran the ball down the throat
of the surprised Knights in that 14-point win. This year, Rutgers
(4-0 for the fi rst time since 1980 and in Top 25 for fi rst time since
1978) has a defense that can stop the run (allowing 69 ground
yards per game). The set is bad, however, as USF returns to their
strong home fi eld (47-12 under Jim Leavitt) while the Knights
check in off a 49-point win over Howard High School.
Thursday, September 28th
TCU over Byu by 7
Another home team with ten days off with one slight difference.
TCU is pretty good. The Frogs own the nation's longest winning
streak at 13 and are 23-3 SU at home in their last 26 games there,
including a sparkling 10-1 ATS when not favored by ten or more.
BYU, though, is 10-1 ATS as conference road dogs with revenge and
is itching to get even for that 51-50 loss in Provo last year. Still, the
Cougars are 3-42 ATS in their last 45 league losses and the Frogs
don't lose too often in their pond (35-5 SU here since '99).
Auburn over S CAROLINA by 13
Auburn has blistered SEC teams over the past two-plus years. The
Tigers are 18-1 SU in conference play and have 15 covers to go with
those 18 wins. We're aware that Carolina is playing with 41-point
revenge but the Gamecocks are averaging less than eight points
a game against lined competition this fall and are a woeful 1-16
ATS in their last 17 games scoring 14 or less. We like home dogs
but we won't buck this Tiger with a punchless chicken.
PENN ST over Northwestern by 17
Northwestern played the bejesus out of Nevada last Friday but
gave the game and the cover away with a plethora of turnovers
and mistakes. The Cats were good enough to win that game and
may be good enough to win this one. They are 29-7 ATS on the
road against opponents who are off a loss. BUT! Penn State could
be in a real bad mood after playing the bejesus out of Ohio State
before melting down late in the game last week, and the Lions
are 6-1 ATS in their last seven home revenge games.
Wisconsin over INDIANA by 7
Coach Terry Hoeppner makes his return to the Indiana sidelines
and we expect an emotional effort from the Hoosiers today.
Although Indiana is just 3-16 ATS in the second of back-to-back
home games and 23-48 ATS as an underdog with revenge, we are
not going to back a Wisconsin team that is 0-8 ATS in its last ten
tries as double-digit road chalk.
MICHIGAN ST over Illinois by 28
Although Michigan State is a wobbly 7-13 ATS as home chalk in
its last 20 tries, none of those 13 pointspread losses were against
Illinois. In fact, MSU is a perfect 5-0 SU and ATS here against
the Illini since 1991. Illinois 6-19 ATS in its last 25 Big Ten games
and is a putrid 3-12 ATS in their last 15 tries as road underdogs.
Notre Dame letdown for the Spartans? NO! They beat the
Illini 61-14 last year the week after upsetting the Irish in South
Bend.
4 BEST BET
While watching the Purdue-Minnesota game last week, we
came to this conclusion. Had Minnesota chosen to pass more,
the Gophers might have won by 30. Purdue's secondary, rife
with young untested players, really has no clue. Notre Dame
has this guy named Quinn and we can tell you for certain
that if we noticed the weakness in the Boiler secondary, so
did Brady's coach. Even though Purdue is a mission dog, we
won't stoke the boiler today. Not only does 'Due fi t into a
solid 'play against' situation in our Awesome Angle (page 2),
they're also a 4-0 Game 5 road dog (see Marc's BETCHA DIDN'T
KNOW for more). Yes, the Irish were blessed last week. With
that, look for the Rosary Beads to pass the Boilers silly. All in
the name of – a Best Bet!
NOTRE DAME over Purdue by 27
MIAMI FLA over Houston by 20
Miami will test the intelligence of the SMART BOX this week. The
10-1 ATS angle featured there has to go up against Miami's 0-9
ATS log in its last nine games off a week of rest and its 7-18 ATS
mark as a home favorite in its last 25 opportunities. Houston has
no wins and one cover in its six meetings with the Hurricanes since
1980 and is just 2-13 ATS in its last 15 tries as DD road dogs of less
than +30. Canes need to win and win big. We think they'll get it
against this 4-0 Game 5 road dog.
PITTSBURGH over Toledo by 10
As bad as Toledo played in the second half of that win over Kansas
a couple weeks back, the Rockets still managed to win the game.
That game was in Toledo. This one is not. Toledo is just 1-7 ATS
in its last eight non-conference road games allowing a whopping
43 points per game in those eight losses. Pittsburgh is a powerful
38-11-1 ATS in its last 50 non-league games in which the Panthers
scored more than 28 points but last week's SMART BOX says to
fade these Cats. No problem.
Virginia over DUKE by 10
Things could worse for Virginia. The Cavs could get dumped
by Duke. That hasn't happened very often (twice in the last 17
meetings) but, even when they were good, the Wahoos were able
to cover only one of the last six games in Durham. Obviously, we
aren't going to take a Duke team that is 0-11 SU and 2-9 ATS in its
last 11 ACC games but we're not interested in a road favorite who
hasn't scored more than one TD in any game this season.
SYRACUSE over Wyoming by 7
Another trip to the East for a weary Wyoming team who was in
Virginia just three weeks ago. Fill those two trips in with home
games against Boise State and Air Force and you get tired. Syracuse
is playing a little better this year if you count a win over Illinois
as being worth anything but confl icting trends will likely keep us
at bay here. Wyoming is 8-0 ATS in its last eight non-conference
games and the Cuse is 18-0 ATS in its last 18 SU wins.
CLEMSON over LA Tech by 34
Clemson has a pair of big wins over Tech in their last two meetings
and could be excused for not being overly enthusiastic here. Off
games with Florida State and North Carolina and with a huge
revenge game up next with Wake Forest, the Tigers will likely
take it easy on the Bulldogs. Still, Tech is 1-8 ATS in its last seven
chances as a road dog of +21+ and 0-7 ATS in its last seven non-
WAC games. No Louisiana Hayride for us.
Navy over CONNECTICUT by 3
Navy is the like the luxury 1956 Buick Sedan, a 'Roadmaster'. The
Sailors are a blistering 13-2 ATS in the fi rst of BB road games and
16-5 ATS in their last 21 road chances overall. With UConn's offense
tripping over itself (Huskies have gone nine lined games in a row
without scoring 28), the Middies have a chance to make money
here. Navy is 41-10 in its last 51 road games when allowing less
than 28. Swabbies!
ARMY over Rice by 10
After two brutally physical games in Texas against A&M and
Baylor, Army will be happy to host its third consecutive Lone Star
State opponent. Rice and physical are hardly ever used in the
same sentence. The Owls are also view this game as a breather
after playing Florida State, Ucla and Texas in its last three games.
With Army just 5-12 ATS in its last 17 home games and Rice on a
14-game road losing streak, we'll step aside here.
OHIO U over Bowling Green by 4
Since the MAC hit the Big Board in 1998, Bowling Green and Ohio
have met seven times with the Falcons taking home the money
in every game. In the last three meetings, BG was the winner by
an average of 33 points. The only thing we don't know is if Ohio,
a schizophrenic team to say the least, will show up as the astute
composed Abbott or the comically inept Costello.
AIR FORCE over New Mexico by 13
Not much to recommend with a New Mexico team that's averaging
100 rushing yards per game while struggling against the likes of
Portland State and New Mexico State. Air Force ran for 281 yards
in its 31-30 loss at Tennessee and, in case you didn't know it, the
Volunteer defense is just a snip better than New Mexico's. That
makes Air Force a certifi ed double rusher and you know how we
feel about those. Our enthusiasm is tempered by New Mexico's
25-11 ATS mark in road revenge games. Nonetheless, with the
Lobos looking like fat cats off last week's stunning home dog win
over UTEP, we'll take a fl yer with the Force.
BAYLOR over Kansas St by 1
Two teams who have played strong defense and inconsistent
offense battle in Waco. Kansas State has the advantage of playing
a Baylor team who is 4-52 SU against winning teams over the last
ten years. We think this Baylor team is the best its had in the last
decade but this is the start of the Big 12 season and old habits are
hard to break. Kansas State, meanwhile, is 71-5 SU against .500 or
worse and 11-1 ATS in its last 12 league wins.
UTAH ST over Idaho by 3
In a game that holds the interest of tens of people, we choose to
step away from the madding crowd and proclaim indifference.
Utah State went into the BYU game last week without an offensive
touchdown on the season. Idaho has one win in its last 12 road
games with just four covers in that dirty dozen. It's not hard to
be indifferent with those numbers fl ying around the room. Oh
yeah, teams off three whitewash losses in a row are 5-1 ATS since
1980. Yes, this could be the Utags' week!
UTAH over Boise St by 8
Two teams from the same states as those in the game above with
a megaton more interest. Boise has covered 17 of its last 23 road
games after playing a conference foe while Utah is 24-5 SU in its
last 29 home games and 83-20 ATS in its last 103 SU wins. Even
though this is a non-conference game, there is plenty riding on
the outcome. Remember, Boise is another of our 4-0 Game 5 road
dog fades. Stay at home with the Utes.
Usc over WASHINGTON ST by 17
As you might suspect, Southern Cal has all the numbers in this
game. The Trojans are 34-1 SU and 25-11 ATS against avenging
teams in their last 35 tries and have beaten Wazzu by an average
of 33 points in the last three meetings. Washington State is a
money burning 13-44 ATS in its last 57 SU home losses. 42-point
loss revenge from last year should catch the Cougars interest. Still,
jumping in front of Pete Carroll is akin to jumping on the tracks
with a freight train bearing down. Can't do it.
California over OREGON ST by 10
While watching Boise State run through the Beavers like JLo goes
through money, we looked for the next power running team on
the OSU schedule. Cal is it. The problem is that the Golden Bears
are 6-17 ATS in their last 23 road games and 7-16 ATS as a favorite
with revenge in the last 23 tries. Oregon State is 7-1 ATS in the
second of BB home games and a decent 35-9 SU in its last 44 home
games. Still, Cal is better. Way better.
UCLA over Stanford by 21
It's hard to imagine how far the Stanford football program has
fallen since Tyrone Willingham left. The Cardinal is 15-32 SU in
all games and just 9-24 SU in Pac Ten matches. Through all their
troubles though, Stanford is 6-1-1 ATS in its last eight meetings
with Ucla and 10-1-1 ATS in its last dozen visits to Pasadena.
However, Ucla is allowing just 18 points per game on the season
and Stanford is 16-39 ATS when scoring less than 21 on the road.
No real interest here.
FLORIDA over Alabama by 10
Alabama has been a decent road dog over the years with 22
covers in its last 33 tries, including a sparkling 9-2 ATS log when
taking more than seven points. Better yet, check our compelling
INCREDIBLE STAT OF THE WEEK on page 3. Last year, Alabama
handed Urban Meyer a 31-3 loss, the worst of Meyer's head
coaching career. Florida is 13-3-1 ATS with revenge when not
favored by more than 14 and itching to get even. We respect
Florida's desire to get it's revenge but simply can't fade the
aforementioned Incredible Stat, not with the Tide off a loss.
CINCINNATI over Miami OH by 10
After games at Ohio State and Virginia Tech, the Bearcats are
relieved to be at home and even more relieved to be facing a weak
Miami team. This series, though, is one of the oldest continuous
rivalries in the country and you can traditionally throw out the
record books when these two meet (the favorite has covered just
once in the last seven meetings). The Bearcats are still steaming
about that 44-16 pasting they took last year. That's the edge.
KENTUCKY over C Michigan by 7
In its last 18 games on the road against lined non-conference
teams, Central Michigan has one win and fi ve covers. That sets this
one up for Kentucky backers. The Bluegrass Cats are a stunning
21-3 ATS in their last 24 SU wins, including 13 pointspread wins
in a row. Those numbers are muted by Kentucky's 7-22 SU mark
in its last 29 games despite being 7-1 ATS at home in its last eight
here against .500 or worse teams.
San Diego St over SAN JOSE ST by 1
With San Diego State owning fi ve straight victories over San Jose,
all wins by at least 27 points, we're not looking at the home dog
with either eye. The Aztecs are 59-15-1 in their last 75 SU wins,
including 14 in a row. This San Jose State team is fearless. It has
already played Washington to the wire and beaten Stanford and
is looking forward to getting even with the Tribe from down
south. Feisty Spartans scare the hell out of us, especially against
rookie mentor Long.
N Illinois over BALL ST by 12
Northern Illinois is 37-10-1 ATS in its last 48 SU wins and 10-2 ATS
in the fi rst of BB road games in its last 12 tries. But, Ball State has
covered four in a row at home against avenging opponents and
ten in row when scoring 28 or more. Since the Huskies gave up
35 at home to Ohio, 28 is defi nitely a possibility for the Gonads.
The only thing we don't like is that Ohio loss. NIU needs this game
like blood and has the best player on the fi eld. Pass the plasma
and lay the wood.
LSU over Mississippi St by 31
It's diffi cult to recommend a point-starved Mississippi State team
on the road, off a rare win, against one for the best defenses in the
country. What makes it even more diffi cult is MSU's pointspread
record in the last nine meetings, a perfect 0-9 against the line.
In fact, the last fi ve games with LSU has resulted in losses with
an average margin of 35 points. Even with all those convincing
numbers, we remain disinterested in disinterested 30-point
favorites.
GAME OF THE WEEK UPSET UPSET
TEXAS A&M over Texas Tech by 8
If Texas A&M didn't have this game circled in red when the
season began, it could only be because the Aggies preferred
their own burgundy. Tech whipped A&M 56-17 in Lubbock
last year leaving a bitter taste in the mouths of the Aggies.
Texas Tech has covered 19 of the last 26 and 10 of the last 12
in this series. Still, a bad Aggie team beat a really good Texas
Tech team here two years ago. One would be foolish to think
that it can't happen again. As we mentioned earlier, the Red
Raiders are black-and-white when home-and-away. Look for
the series host to improve to 7-1 ATS here today.
Georgia over MISSISSIPPI by 21
There isn't a soul in our offi ce or anywhere in the country that can
explain the performance of the Georgia Bulldogs last Saturday. We
won't even try. Georgia will be best served by putting that game
behind it and moving on in its quest to win its division of the SEC.
The Bulldogs can do it. Under Mark Richt, they are a perfect 17-0
SU and 14-3 ATS on the road against teams with at least one loss.
Ole Miss is in the wrong place at the wrong time.
3 BEST BET
After four straight home games, Tennessee fi nally hits the
road, a place that has not been kind to Volunteer backers.
The Orange is 11-20-2 ATS in its last 33 tries as road favorites
of -9 or more and has not covered in that role against nonconference
opposition since at least 1980 (0-7 ATS). Memphis
has covered six in a row in the series and, of course, regards
this as its most important game of the year. Just as important
are the next three games on the Vols' slate, namely Georgia,
Alabama & South Carolina, revenge games all. Our Awesome
Angle concurs – take the points
Tennessee over MEMPHIS by 3
MISSOURI over Colorado by 10
Like we said in the last write-up, we have no clue what happened
in Athens last week. We do know that the problems with the
Buffaloes have not been on the defensive side. Colorado has held
its opponents to 21 points or less in every one of its games this
season. That's enough to win more times than not, but CU has
scored only three touchdowns all season. Still, they have been
favored 19 of the last 22 games in this series and now are a 2-
touchdown dog. Now that's a gap.
VANDERBILT over Temple by 32
Vandy has played very well against teams far better than the one
it sees today. That 240 yards rushing against a tough Arkansas
defense was impressive even though it didn't help Vanderbilt avoid
its third consecutive loss. Vandy is a dapper 55-8 ATS in its last 63
SU wins. That's an important number because Temple is 1-31 SU in
its last 31 games, including 16 road losses in a row by an average
of 34 points each. Before you run to the bank, however, these stats
from our powerful database: Since 1980, Vanderbilt has won only
8 of its 298 games by 30 or more points. The most they have ever
been favored, in that span, is -18 (against Duke in 2000). And,
fi nally, they are 3-7 ATS as favs of more than 10 points. That, my
friend, tells you exactly how bad this Temple team really is!
VIRGINIA TECH over Georgia Tech by 14
The Hokies didn't get the money in their lackluster win over
Cincinnati but you can be sure they'll be ready to play with the
other ACC Tech coming to town. The Virginia variety of Techies is
13-6 ATS in its last 19 tries as home favorites and 34-17 ATS at home
against opponents off a SU win. Tech, the Georgia version, is 10-2
ATS in its fi rst road game of the year and 6-2 ATS in its last eight
chances are road dogs. For Technical reasons, we'll lay the wood
as the Techsters (Ga, that is) makes their fi rst road appearance of
the season and qualify as a 'play against' within our Angle of the
Week. Va over Ga.
Akron over KENT ST by 4
One of the biggest surprises in the country is also one of the most
hidden. Kent State, winners of just 12 road games in its last 102
tries coming into this season, is leading the MAC on the strength
of road wins at Bowling Green and Miami of Ohio, two of the
toughest venues in the league. To say the Flashes can't beat Akron
at home would be ridiculous and, as John Marley said in Godfather
I, "A man in my position can't afford to look ridiculous". Or, as Bob
Marley has said in many a conversation, "Pass the joint, man."
Ohio St over IOWA by 3
The Buckeyes got their revenge last week and must travel to a
tough venue this Saturday in hopes of retaining its top spot among
the polls. They have covered six of the last seven in the series and
are a perfect 8-0 ATS in the last eight games immediately following
Penn State on the schedule. On the fl ip side, OSU is 1-13 ATS on
the Big 10 road as a favorite off a win of 7 or more points against
a .500 or better foe off a win. Iowa is 6-0 ATS in the fi rst of backto-
back home games and a powerful 26-2 SU in its last 28 home
games, including a money making 19-3 ATS in the last 22. This will
be the third time since 2002 that Iowa will be a home underdog.
The Hawkeyes won the other two on the fi eld. Bad spot for the
#1 team in the land.
Michigan over MINNESOTA by 10
No one could blame Michigan for waltzing through a ho-hum
27-13 win against Wisconsin. Even though it was a revenge game,
Michigan wanted Notre Dame so badly that it spent two weeks
worth of emotion in South Bend. Now refreshed, the Wolves
tackle their third straight revenge game in Bloomington. But
Michigan is not a good road favorite with only two covers in its
last seven tries. Still, Minnesota would have to play perfectly to
win this. Don't forget, the Wolves are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 SU
road victories.
Smu over TULANE by 6
There aren't many teams that are in arrears to Tulane but SMU
is one of them. The Mustangs are a perfect 0-5 ATS in their last
five meetings with the Green Wave. Surprisingly, the Ponies will
saddle up a road favorites for the fi rst time in over four years. The
problem is Tulane is a paltry 13-29-1 ATS as a home puppy since
1991. Tulane's Lester Ricard may be the best player on the fi eld
but SMU has the better horses.
TEXAS EL PASO over N Mexico St by 20
It's extremely diffi cult to back a New Mexico State team that has
won none of its last 16 games and is 0-14 SU in its last 14 nonconference
games. UTEP is 37-7 ATS in its last 44 wins. Here's the
rub. New Mexico State's Chase Holbrook is the nation's leading
passer and the Miner secondary is far from impenetrable. That's
not a good situation for a three touchdown favorite and certainly
not a situation we want to play.
FRESNO ST over Colorado St by 14
The Rams were exposed in Nevada and are likely facing another
rude awakening here. Without Kyle Bell, the CSU running game is
virtually nonexistent putting way too much pressure on QB Caleb
Hanie to move the team. Expect Fresno State to put even more
pressure on Hanie as the Bulldogs desperately try to even their
season log. The SMART BOX says Fresno and we have no reason
to argue with the sagacious square.
LA LAFAYETTE over E Michigan by 6
What fertile imagination drew up this match. Lafayette was beaten
96-10 in its fi rst two games of the year while Eastern Michigan
has gone 0-3 while allowing over 100 points in those three losses.
Let's recall that fertile imagination tag and replace with sick mind.
Stay away from this tragedy.
FLORIDA INT'L over Arkansas St by 8
This actually ought to be a decent game with plenty of interest.
Most of that fervor will come from a pride of Golden Panthers that
was beaten 66-24 in Jonesboro last season. Don Strock didn't like
that, the fans didn't like and, most importantly, the players didn't
like it. Revenge might be the word of the day here.
UAB over Troy by 10
Most teams would get upset over having to play four road games in
a row. Not Troy. The Trojans are 7-3 ATS in their last ten trips away
from home. We know that this is just down the street a block or
two but it's a road game to Troy. UAB won't get caught napping,
though. The Blazers saw what happened to Florida State.
Mid Tenn St over N TEXAS by 6
The Blue Raiders have had no luck at all when it comes to cashing
tickets against North Texas. 0-5 is the ATS mark for the Big Green
in this Sun Belt series and, after looking at the UNT numbers, it
could easily be 0-6. The Mean Green is 15-8 ATS in its last 23 Sun
Belt home games and 10-4 ATS at home vs avengers. The wrong
team appears to be favored here.
LA MONROE over Fla Atlantic by 10
Everything we said about the LA Lafayette - Eastern Michigan
game applies here. By virtue of the early season results and by the
size of the pointspread, LA Monroe is clearly the superior team. So,
tell us, how do you play a two-touchdown favorite that is 0-7 ATS at
home against avenging teams and 1-6 ATS in its last seven tries as
home chalk? You don't, not with teams playing a season opening
5th straight road game standing 5-1 ATS in this situation.
Nevada over UNLV by 6
It's been a long time since we've seen a team more fortunate to win
a game and cover a spread like Nevada did last Friday. The talent
is there, though, and it's more talent than their state rivals have.
With that lucky Friday, Nevada is now 7-0 ATS off a SU win while
UNLV is a weak 2-6 ATS in its last eight non-league games. Nevada's
22-14 win last year was its fi rst in six tries against the Vegas bunch.
Rocky Hinds still out for UNLV and that's not good.
ARIZONA over Washington by 1
This series has been easy to handicap. Find out who the underdog
is and play it. That strategy has worked eight years in a row and,
with two essentially even teams on the fi eld this year, it could
easily work again. Although Washington is just 4-11 ATS in its
last 15 road games, Arizona counters with a pitiful 1-15 ATS log
as home chalk of -3 or more. There's just no way we would lay
any points in a game like this.
ARIZONA ST over Oregon by 6
Arizona State went up to California with high hopes of continuing
its undefeated season and before they knew it, Cal was ahead
28-7. Oregon is another matter. The Ducks took ten in the desert
last season and whipped the Sun Devils 31-17. By a quirk in the
scheduling, Oregon is right back in Tempe again this year, only
against a better Arizona State team. A team whose coach, Dirk
Koetter, fi ts the bill with our TRIVIA TEASER on page 2. Look for
the sun to set on the Ducks in the desert here tonight.
posted by phantom
Sept. 28 2006 2:50pm -
0 likes
Greg Roberts Newsletter
ROAST OF THE WEEK: CLEMSON 55-7 over LA TECH
BARKING DOG: WASH 24-14 over AZ
TOTALS GAME: SYRACUSE 17-10 over WYO. TAKE THE UNDER.
posted by phantom
Sept. 28 2006 2:52pm -
0 likes
Gold Sheet CKO:
Clemson53-7 over La Tech Rated 11
Syracuse28-10 over Wyo Rated 10
Troy17-16 over UAB Rated 10
Fresno34-10 over Colo St Rated 10
N Eng31-27 over Cinn Rated 10
9 rated games:Penn St, Vandy, Memphis, Tulane, Buffalo(NFL)
Totals: Colts-Jets over, Jax-Wash under.
posted by phantom
Sept. 28 2006 2:53pm -
0 likes
HQ Report
HQ UNDERDOG PLAY of the WEEK:
TROY (+) over UAB
Last week HQ Underdog POW Hawaii(+14)won 34-41
TOTAL RECALL OVER / UNDER:
Wyoming vs Syracuse PLAY UNDER
A.T.S. (Angles, Trends & Systems):
NOTRE DAME over Purdue
Visiting Team is 5- 9 ATS the last 14 years
Last week Air Force Won
NFL FOOTBALL SELECTIONS
5* COLTS over Jets by 17
last week 5* Bengals Won
Total Recall Over / Under:
49ers versus Chiefs PLAY OVER
Super System Line:
CARDINALS (+) over Falcons
posted by phantom
Sept. 28 2006 2:54pm -
0 likes
Dunkel Index – NCAA Football
THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 28
B]Game 303-304: BYU at TCU
Dunkel Ratings: BYU 92.381; TCU 99.523
Dunkel Line: TCU by 7; 35 1/2
Vegas Line: TCU by 5 1/2; 47
Dunkel Pick: TCU (-5 1/2); Under
Game 305-306: Auburn at South Carolina
Dunkel Ratings: Auburn 106.988; South Carolina 89.961
Dunkel Line: Auburn by 17; 33 1/2
Vegas Line: Auburn by 14; 37 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Auburn (-14); Under
FRIDAY, SEPTEMBER 29
Game 307-308: Rutgers at South Florida
Dunkel Ratings: Rutgers 90.800; South Florida 85.051
Dunkel Line: Rutgers by 5 1/2; 42 1/2
Vegas Line: Rutgers by 4; 41 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Rutgers (-4); Over
SATURDAY, SEPTEMBER 30
Game 309-310: Northwestern at Penn State
Dunkel Ratings: Northwestern 86.579; Penn State 102.583
Dunkel Line: Penn State by 16; 38 1/2
Vegas Line: Penn State by 18; 41
Dunkel Pick: Northwestern (+18); Under
Game 311-312: Kansas at Nebraska
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas 86.152; Nebraska 103.987
Dunkel Line: Nebraska by 18; 55 1/2
Vegas Line: Nebraska by 21 1/2; 44 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Kansas (+21 1/2); Over
Game 313-314: Wisconsin at Indiana
Dunkel Ratings: Wisconsin 97.923; Indiana 80.015
Dunkel Line: Wisconsin by 18; 45 1/2
Vegas Line: Wisconsin by 10 1/2; 42 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Wisconsin (-10 1/2); Over
Game 315-316: Illinois at Michigan State
Dunkel Ratings: Illinois 75.906; Michigan State 98.003
Dunkel Line: Michigan State by 22; 55
Vegas Line: Michigan State by 26; 56
Dunkel Pick: Illinois (+26); Under
Game 317-318: Houston at Miami, FL
Dunkel Ratings: Houston 83.844; Miami, FL 98.783
Dunkel Line: Miami, FL by 15; 45
Vegas Line: Miami, FL by 16 1/2; 48 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Houston (+16 1/2); Under
Game 319-320: Toledo at Pittsburgh
Dunkel Ratings: Toledo 83.533; Pittsburgh 93.104
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 9 1/2; 50
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh by 14; 50
Dunkel Pick: Toledo (+14); Neutral
Game 321-322: Virginia at Duke
Dunkel Ratings: Virginia 82.042; Duke 71.709
Dunkel Line: Virginia by 10 1/2; 30 1/2
Vegas Line: Virginia by 5 1/2; 35 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Virginia (-5 1/2); Under
Game 323-324: Wyoming at Syracuse
Dunkel Ratings: Wyoming 83.206; Syracuse 82.843
Dunkel Line: Even; 42
Vegas Line: Syracuse by 5; 38
Dunkel Pick: Wyoming (+5); Over
Game 325-326: Louisiana Tech at Clemson
Dunkel Ratings: Louisiana Tech 74.261; Clemson 104.812
Dunkel Line: Clemson by 30 1/2; 57 1/2
Vegas Line: Clemson by 33 1/2; 54 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Louisiana Tech (+33 1/2); Over
Game 327-328: Navy at Connecticut
Dunkel Ratings: Navy 88.300; Connecticut 83.164
Dunkel Line: Navy by 5; 48 1/2
Vegas Line: Connecticut by 3; 42
Dunkel Pick: Navy (+3); Over
Game 329-330: Rice at Army
Dunkel Ratings: Rice 68.805; Army 78.660
Dunkel Line: Army by 10; 44 1/2
Vegas Line: Army by 11; 46 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Rice (+11); Under
Game 331-332: Bowling Green at Ohio
Dunkel Ratings: Bowling Green 76.746; Ohio 77.759
Dunkel Line: Ohio by 1; 44 1/2
Vegas Line: Ohio by 5; 46 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Bowling Green (+5); Under
Game 333-334: New Mexico at Air Force
Dunkel Ratings: New Mexico 77.824; Air Force 86.479
Dunkel Line: Air Force by 8 1/2; 46 1/2
Vegas Line: Air Force by 13; 51 1/2
Dunkel Pick: New Mexico (+13); Under
Game 335-336: Purdue at Notre Dame
Dunkel Ratings: Purdue 91.092; Notre Dame 104.362
Dunkel Line: Notre Dame by 13 1/2; 61 1/2
Vegas Line: Notre Dame by 14; 61 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Purdue (+14); Neutral
Game 337-338: Kansas State at Baylor
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas State 88.702; Baylor 84.939
Dunkel Line: Kansas State by 4; 37
Vegas Line: Baylor by 2; 40 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Kansas State (+2); Under
Game 339-340: Idaho at Utah State
Dunkel Ratings: Idaho 63.963; Utah State 64.113
Dunkel Line: Even; 42 1/2
Vegas Line: Idaho by 3; 42 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Utah State (+3); Neutral
Game 341-342: Boise State at Utah
Dunkel Ratings: Boise State 97.553; Utah 100.050
Dunkel Line: Utah by 2 1/2; 49
Vegas Line: Utah by 4; 52
Dunkel Pick: Boise State (+4); Under
Game 343-344: USC at Washington State
Dunkel Ratings: USC 117.195; Washington State 92.897
Dunkel Line: USC by 24 1/2; 53 1/2
Vegas Line: USC by 17; 51 1/2
Dunkel Pick: USC (-17); Over
Game 345-346: California at Oregon State
Dunkel Ratings: California 102.085; Oregon State 90.260
Dunkel Line: California by 12; 62
Vegas Line: California by 9; 57 1/2
Dunkel Pick: California (-9); Over
Game 347-348: Stanford at UCLA
Dunkel Ratings: Stanford 77.313; UCLA 96.855
Dunkel Line: UCLA by 19 1/2; 49 1/2
Vegas Line: UCLA by 23 1/2; 54
Dunkel Pick: Stanford (+23 1/2); Under
Game 349-350: Alabama at Florida
Dunkel Ratings: Alabama 94.720; Florida 105.895
Dunkel Line: Florida by 11; 40
Vegas Line: Florida by 13 1/2; 38 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Alabama (+13 1/2); Over
Game 351-352: Miami (OH) at Cincinnati
Dunkel Ratings: Miami (OH) 73.545; Cincinnati 81.483
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 8; 36 1/2
Vegas Line: Cincinnati by 9; 45 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Miami (OH) (+9); Under
Game 353-354: Central Michigan at Kentucky
Dunkel Ratings: Central Michigan 80.772; Kentucky 88.286
Dunkel Line: Kentucky by 7 1/2; 52
Vegas Line: Kentucky by 7 1/2; 52
Dunkel Pick: Neutral; Neutral
Game 355-356: San Diego St. at San Jose St.
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego St. 81.222; San Jose St. 75.258
Dunkel Line: San Diego St. by 6; 52
Vegas Line: San Diego State by 2 1/2; 46 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Diego State (-2 1/2); Over
Game 357-358: Northern Illinois at Ball State
Dunkel Ratings: Northern Illinois 79.408; Ball State 73.718
Dunkel Line: Northern Illinois by 5 1/2; 57 1/2
Vegas Line: Northern Illinois by 7; 56 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Ball State (+7); Over
Game 359-360: Mississippi State at LSU
Dunkel Ratings: Mississippi State 77.103; LSU 111.532
Dunkel Line: LSU by 34 1/2; 44
Vegas Line: LSU by 32 1/2; 41
Dunkel Pick: LSU (-32 1/2); Over
Game 361-362: Texas Tech at Texas A&M
Dunkel Ratings: Texas Tech 100.088; Texas A&M 94.371
Dunkel Line: Texas Tech by 5 1/2; 45 1/2
Vegas Line: Texas A&M by 2; 57 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Texas Tech (+2); Under
Game 363-364: Georgia at Mississippi
Dunkel Ratings: Georgia 105.637; Mississippi 82.143
Dunkel Line: Georgia by 23 1/2; 35
Vegas Line: Georgia by 18; 35
Dunkel Pick: Georgia (-18); Neutral
Game 365-366: Colorado at Missouri
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado 79.943; Missouri 90.874
Dunkel Line: Missouri by 11; 38
Vegas Line: Missouri by 15; 38 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Colorado (+15); Under
Game 367-368: Temple at Vanderbilt
Dunkel Ratings: Temple 52.764; Vanderbilt 84.585
Dunkel Line: Vanderbilt by 32; 45 1/2
Vegas Line: Vanderbilt by 34; 43
Dunkel Pick: Temple (+34); Over
Game 369-370: Georgia Tech at Virginia Tech
Dunkel Ratings: Georgia Tech 95.391; Virginia Tech 104.238
Dunkel Line: Virginia Tech by 9; 34
Vegas Line: Virginia Tech by 9; 37 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Neutral; Under
Game 371-372: Akron at Kent
Dunkel Ratings: Akron 85.267; Kent 85.083
Dunkel Line: Even; 44 1/2
Vegas Line: Akron by 3; 41
Dunkel Pick: Kent (+3); Over
Game 373-374: Ohio State at Iowa
Dunkel Ratings: Ohio State 119.396; Iowa 102.847
Dunkel Line: Ohio State by 16 1/2; 42 1/2
Vegas Line: Ohio State by 7; 42 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Ohio State (-7); Neutral
Game 375-376: Michigan at Minnesota
Dunkel Ratings: Michigan 115.016; Minnesota 101.798
Dunkel Line: Michigan by 13; 51 1/2
Vegas Line: Michigan by 9 1/2; 51
Dunkel Pick: Michigan (-9 1/2); Over
Game 377-378: Tennessee at Memphis
Dunkel Ratings: Tennessee 101.069; Memphis 81.438
Dunkel Line: Tennessee by 19 1/2; 50
Vegas Line: Tennessee by 13; 44 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Tennessee (-13); Over
Game 379-380: SMU at Tulane
Dunkel Ratings: SMU 72.798; Tulane 69.031
Dunkel Line: SMU by 4; 53
Vegas Line: SMU by 3; 48 1/2
Dunkel Pick: SMU (-3); Over
Game 381-382: New Mexico State at UTEP
Dunkel Ratings: New Mexico State 68.021; UTEP 83.958
Dunkel Line: UTEP by 16; 61
Vegas Line: UTEP by 16; 58
Dunkel Pick: Neutral; Over
Game 383-384: Colorado State at Fresno State
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado State 78.930; Fresno State 89.737
Dunkel Line: Fresno State by 11; 41
Vegas Line: Fresno State by 13; 43
Dunkel Pick: Colorado State (+13); Under
Game 385-386: Nevada at UNLV
Dunkel Ratings: Nevada 83.898; UNLV 75.466
Dunkel Line: Nevada by 8 1/2; 51 1/2
Vegas Line: Nevada by 4; 48 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Nevada (-4); Over
Game 387-388: Washington at Arizona
Dunkel Ratings: Washington 90.746; Arizona 87.501
Dunkel Line: Washington by 3; 37
Vegas Line: Arizona by 3; 41
Dunkel Pick: Washington (+3); Under
Game 389-390: Oregon at Arizona State
Dunkel Ratings: Oregon 103.432; Arizona State 95.430
Dunkel Line: Oregon by 8; 66
Vegas Line: Oregon by 1; 63 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Oregon (-1); Over
Game 391-392: Eastern Michigan at UL Lafayette
Dunkel Ratings: Eastern Michigan 67.676; UL Lafayette 71.635
Dunkel Line: UL Lafayette by 4; 49 1/2
Vegas Line: UL Lafayette by 7 1/2; 46 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Eastern Michigan (+7 1/2); Over
Game 393-394: Arkansas State at Florida International
Dunkel Ratings: Arkansas State 61.833; Florida International 73.993
Dunkel Line: Florida International by 12; 41
Vegas Line: Florida International by 7 1/2; 44
Dunkel Pick: Florida International (-7 1/2); Under
Game 395-396: Troy at UAB
Dunkel Ratings: Troy 70.378; UAB 78.758
Dunkel Line: UAB by 8 1/2; 38 1/2
Vegas Line: UAB by 6; 40
Dunkel Pick: UAB (-6); Under
Game 397-398: Middle Tennessee St. at North Texas
Dunkel Ratings: Middle Tennessee St. 70.061; North Texas 75.474
Dunkel Line: North Texas by 5 1/2; 38
Vegas Line: North Texas by 2 1/2; 39
Dunkel Pick: North Texas (-2 1/2); Under
Game 399-400: Florida Atlantic at UL Monroe
Dunkel Ratings: Florida Atlantic 54.959; UL Monroe 68.679
Dunkel Line: UL Monroe by 14; 45 1/2
Vegas Line: UL Monroe by 15; 47
Dunkel Pick: Florida Atlantic (+15); Under
posted by phantom
Sept. 28 2006 3:02pm -
0 likes
The Max - Kevin O'Neil
College Football
Saturday, September 30th, 2006
Flat Favorite
Illinois (+26½) over @Michigan State Lots point toward the Illini here, little of it having anything to do with football. Michigan State has superior players to Illinois. There’s no question about that. No argument there. But how in the world can the Spartans be up for this game? The come-from-ahead loss to Notre Dame was one for the ages, with the buildup, the national TV cameras, the big lead blown, etc. This is a very natural letdown situation. In addition to the letdown off the blown game, where are the Spartans going next week? Down I-96 to Ann Arbor to take on their archrival, undefeated Michigan. Off the ND loss, with Michigan on deck, how in the world can the Spartans focus on an Illini team they walloped 61-14 last year in Champagne-Urbana? The Spartans remember the 705-271 yardage dominance in that one. Incidentally, the 705 yardage number isn’t a misprint. 376 rushing, 329 passing, with an average of 8.6 yards per play. This is a huge sandwich game between a devastating loss and a huge rivalry revenge encounter. No surprise for those who don’t consider John L. Smith a coach for the ages, but the Spartans are a mere 4-7 against the spread as a double digit home favorite. And Illinois is just spunky enough right now to give us some back door coverability if we’re wrong overall. The Illini scored the last 14 points of the game against Syracuse and the last TD against Iowa. With UM on deck good chance the Spartans are shutting things down late in the game. New Illini QB Williams has pretty good mobility but is a poor thrower. Take the Illini in this huge flat spot. Michigan State by only 20.
ACCentuating the Negative
@Duke (+6) over Virginia Having lost a ton of talent in recent NFL drafts, underclassman with potential started to look around at their declining team and say, “hey, do I want to be here?â€
posted by phantom
Sept. 29 2006 2:58pm -
0 likes
College System from Dave Fobare
Bounceback from a Scare: Play any college football team with a perfect 100% record if they had to come from behind in the 4th quarter last week to win by 1 or 2 points. Record since 1997: 19-6 ATS (76%) This week’s application: Georgia
NFL System from Nelly’s Sportsline
False Road Favorite: Play against any NFL team that is 0-3 straightup and is favored in game 4. Pointspread record since 1980: 16-7 (70%) This week’s application: Oakland Raiders (play against Cleveland)
College System from Marc Lawrence
Down Four The Count: Play against any NFL non-divisional team with a 1-2 record if they lost straight up as a favorite in game three. Pointspread record since 1980: 40-21-1 (65.5%) This week’s applications: Minnesota (play against Buffalo) and Atlanta (play against Arizona)
RED SHEET plays:
PENN ST 89
DUKE 89
CLEMSON 88
KENT ST 88
SYRACUSE 88
CHICAGO BEARS 88
87's:College
Lsu, Washington, Navy, Memphis
NFL: St Louis, Buffalo, Philly
ROCKYS 2006 COLLEGE
POWER RATINGS
updated September 25
TEAM NAMES PR HFA
AIR FORCE 117 3
AKRON 115 3
ALABAMA 120 4
ALA-BIRMINGHAM 108 2
ARIZONA 112 4
ARIZONA STATE 120 4
ARKANSAS 120 3
ARKANSAS STATE 102 2
ARMY 114 2
AUBURN 128 5
BALL STATE 111 5
BAYLOR 113 2
BOISE STATE 121 7
BOSTON COLLEGE 117 4
BOWLING GREEN 110 4
BYU 122 3
BUFFALO 106 2
CALIFORNIA 126 4
CENTRAL FLORIDA 110 4
CENTRAL MICHIGAN 110 4
CINCINNATI 109 3
CLEMSON 124 4
COLORADO 114 4
COLORADO STATE 110 4
CONNECTICUT 113 5
DUKE 108 1
EAST CAROLINA 113 3
EASTERN MICHIGAN 106 3
FLORIDA 127 4
FLORIDA ATLANTIC 93 1
FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL 109 3
FLORIDA STATE 121 3
FRESNO STATE 115 5
GEORGIA 125 3
GEORGIA TECH 119 3
HAWAII 118 7
HOUSTON 119 3
IDAHO 102 2
ILLINOIS 107 2
INDIANA 112 2
IOWA 123 8
IOWA STATE 115 4.5
KANSAS 112 4.5
KANSAS STATE 117 4
KENT STATE 115 2.5
KENTUCKY 116 3
UL - LAFAYETTE 106 2
UL - MONROE 109 3.5
LSU 130 3
LOUISIANA TECH 109 4.5
LOUISVILLE 131 6
MARSHALL 108 4.5
MARYLAND 114 3
MEMPHIS 112 3
MIAMI FLORIDA 119 3
MIAMI OHIO 108 3
MICHIGAN 127 3
MICHIGAN STATE 123 3
MIDDLE TENNESSEE 106 3
MINNESOTA 116 4
MISSISSIPPI 105 2
MISSISSIPPI STATE 110 2.5
MISSOURI 123 3
NAVY 119 2.5
NEBRASKA 122 3
NEVADA 115 5.5
NEW MEXICO 116 3.5
NEW MEXICO STATE 109 2
NORTH CAROLINA 111 3
NC STATE 112 2
NORTH TEXAS 105 2.5
NORTHERN ILLINOIS 115 3.5
NORTHWESTERN 115 4
NOTRE DAME 124 5
OHIO UNIVERSITY 111 3.5
OHIO STATE 130 6
OKLAHOMA 127 4
OKLAHOMA STATE 120 3
OREGON 118 4
OREGON STATE 116 3
PENN STATE 117 5
PITTSBURGH 116 3
PURDUE 115 4
RICE 102 1.5
RUTGERS 122 3.5
SAN DIEGO STATE 110 2.5
SAN JOSE STATE 111 2.5
SOUTH CAROLINA 116 4
SOUTH FLORIDA 114 3
SOUTHERN CAL (USC) 126 4.5
SMU 112 3
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI 119 3
STANFORD 107 2.5
SYRACUSE 117 2
TEMPLE 99 1
TENNESSEE 120 2
TEXAS 126 6
TEXAS A&M 124 4.5
TCU 118 4.5
TEXAS TECH 119 5.5
TEX EL PASO (UTEP) 116 4
TOLEDO 110 4.5
TROY STATE 104 2.5
TULANE 105 1
TULSA 117 3
UCLA 114 3.5
UNLV 109 2
UTAH 125 3
UTAH STATE 101 3
VANDERBILT 115 2
VIRGINIA 111 4
VIRGINIA TECH 122 4
WAKE FOREST 118 2
WASHINGTON 115 2
WASHINGTON STATE 122 2.5
WEST VIRGINIA 127 4.5
WESTERN MICHIGAN 121 3
WISCONSIN 118 4.5
WYOMING 113 3
posted by phantom
Sept. 29 2006 2:59pm -
0 likes
PPP Comps
SATURDAY, SEPTEMBER 30
PENN ST. (-18) over Northwestern by 25 (3:30)
Lions 2 losses have come in lopsided, misleading finals. Like the Ohio St. game LW when the Buckeyes made 2 "pick sixes" against QB Morelli in last 3 minutes. State defense far better than 22 PPG indicates. Will have little trouble controlling the Wild Cat ground game and nonexistent pass attack. Paterno allows QB Morelli to regain confidence against porous Northwestern secondary.
MICHIGAN ST (-26) over Illinois by 33 (Noon)
Spartans self destructed on National TV last Saturday night vs. Notre Dame. LY this team "tossed the towel" after a similar gut wrenching loss. Don't think that happens this year with a much improved defense giving up just 71 RYPG. Possible Steamroller?
PITTSBURGH (-14) over Toledo by 21 (Noon)
Toledo QB situation clouded by injury to starter Cochran. Regardless, Panthers well focused as many remember a 35-31 Toledo upset in 2003. Panthers regained confidence following collapse vs. Spartans with 506-152 yardage edge in 51-6 trouncing of The Citadel LW. QB Palko, with Nation's #1 efficiency rating, leads an offense gaining nearly 300 YPG thru the air. Not the Rockets best role as they stand just 1-8 ATS as non-con road dog. Panthers covered 8 of last 10 as HF. Lay it.
SYRACUSE (-5) over Wyoming by 12 (1:30)
Improved Wyoming defense has kept them competitive with a 3-1 ATS mark. It was not enough, however, for them to overcome our 5% WINNER WITH AIR FORCE LW as the Fly Boys controlled the ball over 40 minutes and out rushed Wyoming 327-77. Back east, Syracuse was cashing as our 5* PRIVATE PLAY BIG EAST GAME OF THE WEEK out rushing Miami, O. 152-31 in a 34-14 victory. Do you see where I am going with this? Improved Orange build on 2 game win streak (following 11 consecutive losses) and extend their 6-0 ATS streak. Tough trip for Cowboys who travel east for a rare dome appearance. Another "5" rated winner again this week?
CLEMSON (-34) over LA Tech by only 27 (7:00)
A full 14 points of value from opening week gets us to this contrary big dog play. All the public and handicappers see is Clemson blowing out Florida Atlantic and North Carolina on this field by a combined 106-13 and LA Tech losing at Nebraska and A&M by a combined score of 94-24 (0-2 ATS). It dropped Tech to 1-13 ATS as +10+ vs. non-cons. Yet, Bulldogs were more competitive in those games than the final score indicated. Tigers off a 3 game ACC stretch of BC, FSU, and NC, with Wake revenge on deck not nearly so motivated. Figure to rest regulars and build depth. Hope I at least kept you off he Tigers here. They are way too public.
Navy (+3) over U. CONNECTICUT by 4 (NOON)
I cleverly avoided my usual play on the Middies LW in their match-up against similarly under-rated Tulsa. But this offensively lethargic Husky team is not instilling the same fear. Navy now 20-5 ATS away and on a continuing 27-11 ATS run. UConn rushing D at 2.6 YPR may inhibit some from pulling this trigger until they realize this number was amassed against RI, Wake, and Indy. Navy never gives up the ship off a loss.
AIR FORCE (-13) vs. New Mexico by 20 (2:00)
Once again, the uninformed will look at the New Mexico rush defense of 2.9 YPR and 87 RYPG with out realizing it was against Portland St., New Mexico St., UTEP and the only team who runs the ball out of that group, Missouri, who ran for 197 yards on nearly 5 YPR. Yes, Rocky Long is familiar with the Air Force offense. But nobody is going to stop the Fly Boy Flex bone this season, currently running for 304 YPG on 3.5 YPR. Lobo offense still a work in transition as they change to West Coast attack. Improved Air Force defense, allowing just 2.9 YPR, including a game at Tennessee.
California (-9) over OREGON ST. by 16 (4:00)
Corvalis used to be the PAC 10's toughest venue. Then Oregon St. improved and teams started to take the trip more seriously. Beaver stats built by wins on this field by a combined 94-17 vs. E. Wash and Idaho. In lone test against quality opponent, after leading 14-0, they allowed Boise St. to run for 302 yards in scoring 42 consecutive points. That's an interesting number considering that's the number of points the Bears tallied in the first half alone in each of their last 2 games. Will QB Longshore, WR Jackson and the running tandem of Lynch and Forsett lead the Bears to our 3rd consecutive "5" rated winner with Tedford's minions?
FLORIDA (-13.5) over Alabama by 20 (3:30)
Knee jerk reaction of handicappers and public will be to "quality defensive dog" Alabama. That would be a poor choice considering that Florida is motivated by meaningful revenge, has a balanced, explosive offense and an equally destructive defense more than capable of making life miserable for Tide's rookie QB Wilson. You'll save a lot of money by not fading 13-point chalk with a 3.6 net YPR diff.
KENTUCKY (-6.5) over Central Michigan by 13 (6:00)
Contrary favorite call in the "situational play" of the week. At first glance, you'll note CMU is on a 10-1 ATS run and plays with momentum of an OT win at rival Eastern, buoyed by return of QB Brunner and running of RB Sneed. Reality is that it's a sandwich spot for Chips off that huge win and with 3 league games on deck. This a must win for Kentucky in quest of 6 win season. Beat Ole Miss here 31-14 in this price range 2 weeks ago.
N. Illinois (-7) over BALL ST. by 14 (6:30)
In week 2, NIU returned from a trip to Ohio St. where all purpose back Wolfe, the Nations leading rusher, blitzed the Bucks for nearly 300 yards. I was not alone in noting this fact as, in the course of the week, the line in their next game vs. Ohio U went from (-14) to (-21). You know the rest. The Bob Cats passed them silly and pulled the upset. I sincerely hope those visions do not resurface this Saturday evening for us. Because the only thing Ball St does remotely well is pass the football for nearly 300 YPG. But, NIU holds a 5.4 net YPR diff at the point of attack and should be well focused playing with only home loss revenge.
LSU (-32) over Mississippi St. by 40 (12:30)
Always scary to lay more than 4 TDs in conference play. That's particularly true with the thoughts of a trip to Florida dancing in the Tigers' heads. Yet, LSU has a strong history here covering 9 straight in the series, winning the last 5 by an average of 35 PPG. In addition, they have covered the last 7 times they have been favored by 26 or more points. Anemic Miss. St. averages just 239 YPG. A shut out would be no surprise vs. the top 5 LSU defense who rarely allows a touchdown.
IOWA (+6.5) over Ohio St. by 1
If you believe good things happen in threes, then you'll want no part of this play. Ohio St. has just pulled off miracle covers in their L2 games against Cincinnati and Penn St. to extend their streak to 11-0 ATS. The 4-0 SU ATS #1 team has done little wrong including a road win at former #1 Texas. Now no one will be looking to pull the trigger against them. Unless you like defensive home dogs who allow just 11 PPG, 2.8 YPR and are 31-11 ATS at home. The Bucks are stopped here.
Michigan (-10) over MINNESOTA by 17 (8:00)
Like Ohio St. above, the Wolves are also 4-0 SU. But they are just 2-2 ATS because, in typical Lloyd Carr fashion, he took the foot off the pedal in a pair of games where he was 4 TD HF. That won't be the case tonight. After a couple of hard fought battles in this series, Minnesota regained the Little Brown Jug for the first time in 20 years with a 23-20 victory as +7 at The Big House. Do the Wolves have the ability to extract their revenge? You bet. A balanced, explosive offense will score at will against a Minnesota defense that allowed California to amass 531 yards in a 42-17 loss. Key element of the selection, however, is using quite possibly the top defense in the Nation, who is allowing just 19 RPYG on 0.8 YPR to stop a Minnesota rushing attack that runs the ball 64% of the time.
Tennessee (-13.5) over MEMPHIS by 6 (Noon)
Tigers have covered 6 straight in this rivalry and are 12-4 ATS as HD. Insiders report a brutal 2 weeks of practice after HC West fired well-traveled DC Dunn who wore out his welcome at yet another quality job. After 3 games, the Tigers were allowing 26 PPG and 5.0 YPR. Be assured that defensive minded HC West will once again have his minions primed for this National TV appearance vs. Big Brother. Vols week 1 upset of Cal just a memory. Now must make first road trip with visions of Bull Dogs directly ahead.
SMU (-3) over TULANE by 10 (7:30)
ONLY ONE FAIRY TALE PER CITY PER WEEK, PLEASE. Going "Home to the Dome" part 2 will air on CSTV Saturday night at 7:30 EST. Though there may not be as much emotion attached to that of MNF, rest assured the Greenies will have their most vocal fan support in years. They still play the game on the field, however, where SMU holds a 4.0 net YPR diff. With Tulane QB Richard still suffering multiple injuries to his hand and shoulder, it may severely impede any Tulane offensive outbursts.
UNLV (-4) over Nevada by 3 (10:00)
The home road dichotomy of the Nevada Wolf Pack has played out again this year as they have covered both of their home games. Yet, under HC Ault, the Pack is just 3-10 ATS away. That spells trouble against a UNLV team who has shown substantial offensive improvement behind USC transfer QB Hinds. Hinds returned to mobility allows the Rebels more versatility in their "shotgun spread" to take advantage of a Nevada defense that allows 5.1 YPR.
ARIZONA ST. (+1.5) over Oregon by 6 (3:30)
Don't expect a rabbit to pop out of a hat for a third consecutive game for Oregon. In their last game, they escaped with the phoniest win in college football history vs. Oklahoma. The week before that, they had another escape when Fresno St. self destructed. With 2 weeks to read about how much they "stole one", expect the Ducks psyche to be at the opposite end of the spectrum from that of an Arizona St. team who plays far better at home and is motivated by the 49-25 loss at Cal LW. Reversal of fortunes no surprise in this one.
LA LAFAYETTE (-7) over E. Michigan by 14 (5:00)
Should be culture shock for an Eastern team traveling to Ragin Cajun country, sandwiched between their OT loss vs. rival Central and the upcoming MAC slate. Their biggest flaw is a rush defense which allows 4.9 YPR and 189 RYPG. After a pair of typical non-con road losses, Lafayette warmed up for this by defeating the N Cat 48-7, out rushing them 330-41. For the season, they run the ball 75% of the time for 189 RYPG on 5.0 YPR. Look for them to "Steamroll" the unsuspecting visitor into submission early and often.
FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL (-8) over Arkansas St. by 15 (6:00)
Under rated Panthers are 0-4 SU with no loss by more than 5 points. Included are a 1-point loss at S. Florida and a 4-point loss at Maryland LW in which they out gained the Terps 310-275. Key has been a vastly improved defense which allows just 122 RYPG on 3.2 YPR. That plays very well against an Ark St. team who runs the ball 67% of the time. LW they were out rushed 226-69 by SMU in a 55-9 loss.
Troy (+7) over UAB by 1 (7:00)
Troy takes to the road for the fourth-consecutive week standing 2-1 ATS in the previous 3. Now they are back against their own class in a state rivalry game. UABs offense has been virtually nonexistent at 11 PPG and 250 YPG. Continuing questions at the QB position give Troy triggerman, QB Haugabook, the decided advantage in the battle of signal callers
posted by phantom
Sept. 29 2006 4:06pm -
0 likes
Dave Malinsky
Game: Louisiana Tech @ Clemson on Sep 30, 2006 7:00PM
Prediction: Louisiana Tech
Reason: 4* LOUISIANA TECH over CLEMSON
Tommy Bowden’s Tigers churned out one of the cleanest performances of this college season vs. North Carolina on Saturday, but performances like that send off fireworks in the betting markets. As such, we are looking at a +34 here in another of those non-conference affairs in which both the favorite and the underdog would not mind shortening the game.
Clemson gets this “breatherâ€
posted by phantom
Sept. 29 2006 4:07pm -
0 likes
Game: Navy @ Connecticut on Sep 30, 2006 12:00PM
Prediction: Navy
Reason: Navy lost a tough game in overtime this past Saturday and with this being the first of four straight difficult games coming up, it is imperative to get this victory. The Midshipmen continue to run over the opposition as they lead the nation with 330.5 ypg on the ground. Connecticut allows a very solid 99 ypg and 2.6 ypc but it has faced only one team, Wake Forest, with a decent running attack and that happened to be its only loss thus far. Coming off that difficult loss will have Navy even more focused on Saturday.
Connecticut has defeated 1-AA Rhode Island and a very suspect Indiana team by a single touchdown. The Huskies possess one of the best rushing teams in the country, ranking 10th in rushing offense but that is severely skewed. 419 of their 802 yards came in that Rhode Island game so their 191.5 ypg average in the 1-AA games would rank them 23rd, a significant difference. Also, their yards per carry average drops from 5.3 ypc to 3.8 ypc which is an enormous dropoff.
The Huskies have averaged only 13.5 ppg against 1-A competition while the Navy defense has done an excellent job against some potent offenses. Connecticut is 34th in the country in total offense with 391.7 ypg but it put up 568 yards in its opener against 1-AA Rhode Island so that average needs to be taken lightly. Navy is 38th against the run, allowing 104.5 ypg and 3.6 ypc. The Midshipmen have not played the most difficult of schedules either but it has been much stronger.
Navy's defense has allowed 1,025 yards passing through four games this season. That's a significant increase from the previous four seasons but it is something that won’t matter here. Connecticut is 111th in the country in passing offense and 96th in passing efficiency offense as it is completing only 55.2 percent of its passes. The Huskies will also be starting a new quarterback this week as Matt Bonislawski takes over. He started five games last season but has yet to se action this year so rustiness is an issue.
The rushing factor is huge as it carries forward for this team. Navy is 23-8 ATS in its last 31 road games after gaining 225 or more rushing yards in two straight games. Navy is a strong team when being asked to rebound as it is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 games following a straight up loss while it is 28-11 ATS in its last 39 games as a road underdog. Navy runs all over the Huskies here. Play Navy Midshipmen 1 Unit
Matt Fargo Sports
posted by phantom
Sept. 29 2006 4:08pm -
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Docs comp
Game: Stanford @ UCLA on Sep 30, 2006 10:15PM
Prediction: Stanford
Reason: The Cardinal can put points on the board and this will be a high scoring typical PAC-10 game will the point total is just too high. Trent Edwards is still behind center and this three-year starter is very experienced in hostile environments. The Bruins have struggled @ times this season against weak competition and tonight will be no different. Take the points and watch your money grow.
posted by phantom
Sept. 29 2006 4:08pm -
0 likes
Game: Northwestern @ Penn St. on Sep 30, 2006 3:30PM
Prediction: Penn St.
Reason: Penn State (-) over Northwestern
The Wildcats have really struggled offensively this season despite playing relatively weak defensive squads. They have played MIami Ohio (in a rebuilding year), New Hampshire (division 1-AA), Eastern Michigan (winless on the season) and Nevada. They have yet to surpass 21 points in any game this year. The passing game has been horrendous, managing just 106, 173, 110 and 122 yards in their four games. They have turned the ball over 10 times already this season and now they face by far their toughest task.
Penn State has played the much tougher schedule taking on three bowl teams from a year ago in Akron, Notre Dame and Ohio State. Despite the tougher schedule they produced 282 yards against Akron in bad weather conditions, 383 yards against the Irish and 248 yards against the #1 team in the country. They put up 568 total yards when they stepped down in class to face Youngstown State.
Defensively Northwestern has forced just 3 turnovers while the Nittany Lions have forced eight. Once again against a much tougher slate.
Northwestern needs to run the ball to be effective, yet Penn State has permitted just 328 rushing yards in four games. Once again facing 3 bowl teams from a year ago. Joe Paterno needs to regain the confidence of his club after facing Notre Dame and Ohio State. While not know to run up the score, this line is low enough where we should see a comfortable 24 to 28 point victory.
PLAY PENN STATE
Off an easy victory on the under in the Tuesday night college game.
Bryan Leonard comp
posted by phantom
Sept. 29 2006 4:08pm -
0 likes
Dunkel Index
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SATURDAY, SEPTEMBER 30
Time Posted: 12:00 p.m. (9/27)
Game 309-310: Northwestern at Penn State
Dunkel Ratings: Northwestern 86.579; Penn State 102.583
Dunkel Line: Penn State by 16; 38 1/2
Vegas Line: Penn State by 18; 41
Dunkel Pick: Northwestern (+18); Under
Game 311-312: Kansas at Nebraska
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas 86.152; Nebraska 103.987
Dunkel Line: Nebraska by 18; 55 1/2
Vegas Line: Nebraska by 21 1/2; 44 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Kansas (+21 1/2); Over
Game 313-314: Wisconsin at Indiana
Dunkel Ratings: Wisconsin 97.923; Indiana 80.015
Dunkel Line: Wisconsin by 18; 45 1/2
Vegas Line: Wisconsin by 10 1/2; 42 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Wisconsin (-10 1/2); Over
Game 315-316: Illinois at Michigan State
Dunkel Ratings: Illinois 75.906; Michigan State 98.003
Dunkel Line: Michigan State by 22; 55
Vegas Line: Michigan State by 26; 56
Dunkel Pick: Illinois (+26); Under
Game 317-318: Houston at Miami, FL
Dunkel Ratings: Houston 83.844; Miami, FL 98.783
Dunkel Line: Miami, FL by 15; 45
Vegas Line: Miami, FL by 16 1/2; 48 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Houston (+16 1/2); Under
Game 319-320: Toledo at Pittsburgh
Dunkel Ratings: Toledo 83.533; Pittsburgh 93.104
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 9 1/2; 50
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh by 14; 50
Dunkel Pick: Toledo (+14); Neutral
Game 321-322: Virginia at Duke
Dunkel Ratings: Virginia 82.042; Duke 71.709
Dunkel Line: Virginia by 10 1/2; 30 1/2
Vegas Line: Virginia by 5 1/2; 35 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Virginia (-5 1/2); Under
Game 323-324: Wyoming at Syracuse
Dunkel Ratings: Wyoming 83.206; Syracuse 82.843
Dunkel Line: Even; 42
Vegas Line: Syracuse by 5; 38
Dunkel Pick: Wyoming (+5); Over
Game 325-326: Louisiana Tech at Clemson
Dunkel Ratings: Louisiana Tech 74.261; Clemson 104.812
Dunkel Line: Clemson by 30 1/2; 57 1/2
Vegas Line: Clemson by 33 1/2; 54 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Louisiana Tech (+33 1/2); Over
Game 327-328: Navy at Connecticut
Dunkel Ratings: Navy 88.300; Connecticut 83.164
Dunkel Line: Navy by 5; 48 1/2
Vegas Line: Connecticut by 3; 42
Dunkel Pick: Navy (+3); Over
Game 329-330: Rice at Army
Dunkel Ratings: Rice 68.805; Army 78.660
Dunkel Line: Army by 10; 44 1/2
Vegas Line: Army by 11; 46 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Rice (+11); Under
Game 331-332: Bowling Green at Ohio
Dunkel Ratings: Bowling Green 76.746; Ohio 77.759
Dunkel Line: Ohio by 1; 44 1/2
Vegas Line: Ohio by 5; 46 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Bowling Green (+5); Under
Game 333-334: New Mexico at Air Force
Dunkel Ratings: New Mexico 77.824; Air Force 86.479
Dunkel Line: Air Force by 8 1/2; 46 1/2
Vegas Line: Air Force by 13; 51 1/2
Dunkel Pick: New Mexico (+13); Under
Game 335-336: Purdue at Notre Dame
Dunkel Ratings: Purdue 91.092; Notre Dame 104.362
Dunkel Line: Notre Dame by 13 1/2; 61 1/2
Vegas Line: Notre Dame by 14; 61 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Purdue (+14); Neutral
Game 337-338: Kansas State at Baylor
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas State 88.702; Baylor 84.939
Dunkel Line: Kansas State by 4; 37
Vegas Line: Baylor by 2; 40 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Kansas State (+2); Under
Game 339-340: Idaho at Utah State
Dunkel Ratings: Idaho 63.963; Utah State 64.113
Dunkel Line: Even; 42 1/2
Vegas Line: Idaho by 3; 42 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Utah State (+3); Neutral
Game 341-342: Boise State at Utah
Dunkel Ratings: Boise State 97.553; Utah 100.050
Dunkel Line: Utah by 2 1/2; 49
Vegas Line: Utah by 4; 52
Dunkel Pick: Boise State (+4); Under
Game 343-344: USC at Washington State
Dunkel Ratings: USC 117.195; Washington State 92.897
Dunkel Line: USC by 24 1/2; 53 1/2
Vegas Line: USC by 17; 51 1/2
Dunkel Pick: USC (-17); Over
Game 345-346: California at Oregon State
Dunkel Ratings: California 102.085; Oregon State 90.260
Dunkel Line: California by 12; 62
Vegas Line: California by 9; 57 1/2
Dunkel Pick: California (-9); Over
Game 347-348: Stanford at UCLA
Dunkel Ratings: Stanford 77.313; UCLA 96.855
Dunkel Line: UCLA by 19 1/2; 49 1/2
Vegas Line: UCLA by 23 1/2; 54
Dunkel Pick: Stanford (+23 1/2); Under
Game 349-350: Alabama at Florida
Dunkel Ratings: Alabama 94.720; Florida 105.895
Dunkel Line: Florida by 11; 40
Vegas Line: Florida by 13 1/2; 38 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Alabama (+13 1/2); Over
Game 351-352: Miami (OH) at Cincinnati
Dunkel Ratings: Miami (OH) 73.545; Cincinnati 81.483
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 8; 36 1/2
Vegas Line: Cincinnati by 9; 45 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Miami (OH) (+9); Under
Game 353-354: Central Michigan at Kentucky
Dunkel Ratings: Central Michigan 80.772; Kentucky 88.286
Dunkel Line: Kentucky by 7 1/2; 52
Vegas Line: Kentucky by 7 1/2; 52
Dunkel Pick: Neutral; Neutral
Game 355-356: San Diego St. at San Jose St.
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego St. 81.222; San Jose St. 75.258
Dunkel Line: San Diego St. by 6; 52
Vegas Line: San Diego State by 2 1/2; 46 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Diego State (-2 1/2); Over
posted by phantom
Sept. 29 2006 4:09pm -
0 likes
Dr. Bob:
FLORIDA (-13.5) 38 Alabama 3
Florida for 5-Stars at -14 points or less
4-Stars from -14 ½ to -17 points
3-Stars from -17 ½ to -21
2-star at -23 points or less
PITTSBURGH (-14.0) 38 Toledo 10
Pittsburgh in a 4-Star Best Bet at -14 points or less
3-Stars from -14 ½ to -17 points
2-Stars from -17 ½ to -21.
KENT STATE (+3.0) 27 Akron 15
Kent State in a 3-Star Best Bet at -1 or better
Kent State to a 2-Star Best Bet from -1 ½ to -3 points.
CINCINNATI (-9.0) 34 Miami Ohio 14
Cincinnati in a 3-Star Best Bet at -10 points or less
2-Stars at -10 ½ or -11 points.
VIRGINIA TECH (-9.0) 27 Georgia Tech 7
Virginia Tech in a 3-Star Best Bet at -10 points or less
Virginia Tech to a 2-Star Best Bet from -10 ½ to -12 points
UTAH (-4.0) 30 Boise St. 19
Utah in a 2-Star Best Bet at -4 points or less
3-Stars at -3 points or less
Kansas St. (+1.5) 26 BAYLOR 16
Kansas State in a 2-Star Best Bet at -1 or better
Kansas State to a 3-Star Best Bet at +3 points or more.
College Strong Opinions
MISSOURI (-14.5) 28 Colorado 7
Missouri a Strong Opinion at -16 points or less
Missouri a 2-Star Best Bet at -13 points or less.
Idaho (-2.5) 28 UTAH ST. 18
Idaho a Strong Opinion at -3 points or less
Idaho to a 2-Star Best Bet at -1 or better.
TEXAS A&M (-2.0) 27 Texas Tech 19
Texas A&M a Strong Opinion at -3 points or better
2-Star Best Bet if they become an underdog.
NEBRASKA (-21.5) 41 Kansas 12
Nebraska in a 2-Star Best Bet at -21 points or less
Nebraska a Strong Opinion from -21 ½ to -24 points
SMU (-3.0) 35 TULANE 26
SMU a Strong Opinion at -4 or less.
MISSISSIPPI (+18.0) 14 Georgia 26
Mississippi a Strong Opinion at +17 points or more
2-Star Best Bet at +21 points or more.
Washington (+3.5) 22 ARIZONA 19
Washington a Strong Opinion at +3 points or more
posted by phantom
Sept. 29 2006 4:12pm -
0 likes
VALLEYSPORTS NCAA
Saturday 09-30-2006
Air Force(-13 Or Less)Over New Mexico --5 Stars
Syracuse(-5.5 Or Less)Over Wyoming --4 Stars
UCLA(-23.5 Or Less)Over Stanford --3 Stars
Iowa(+7 Or More)Over Ohio St --3 Stars
Kentucky(-8.5 or Less)Over C. Michigan --2 Stars
Texas A&M(-2.5 or Less)Over Texas Tech --2 Stars
Ga Tech(+9 Or More)Over Va Tech --2 Stars
UCLA/Stanford(Over 54 or Less) --4 Stars
Ga Tech/Va Tech(Under 37 Or More)--3 Stars
Greg Roberts:
High Roller Game of the month 6* Arizona State +1
MVP 5* LSU -32 1/2
posted by phantom
Sept. 29 2006 5:09pm -
0 likes
College Best Bet Sides
4 Star Selection
PITTSBURGH (-14.0) 38 Toledo 10
30-Sep-06 09:00 AM Pacific Time
Toledo is not nearly the team that they were last season with veteran quarterback Bruce Gradkowski (now in the NFL with Tampa Bay), as sophomore quarterback Clint Cochran has not come close to duplicating Gradkowski’s excellent numbers. Cochran has averaged only 4.8 yards per pass play in 3 games this season (against teams that would allow 6.6 yppp to an average quarterback) before sitting out last week’s game against Division 1AA McNeese State after getting banged up by Kansas the week before. Cochran wasn’t good last year either when he had to start in Gradkowski’s place in a 14-44 loss at Fresno State. I’m expecting Cochran to return to the lineup this week, but the Rockets would be even worse if he doesn’t after freshmen backup quarterbacks Brandon Summers and Aaron Opelt combined to average just 4.8 yppp last week against a McNeese team that would allow 8.0 yppp on the road to an average Division 1A team. In 3 games with Cochran the Rockets have averaged just 4.4 yppl to teams that would allow 5.6 yppl to an average attack. Pittsburgh’s solid stop unit (4.5 yppl allowed to teams that would average 4.9 yppl against an average team) has allowed 3.7 yppl or less in 3 games against sub-par offensive teams (they only played poorly against Michigan State’s potent attack) and the Panthers should have no trouble shutting down Toledo in this game. Pittsburgh quarterback Tyler Palko is posting ridiculous numbers so far this season, averaging 10.3 yppp against teams that would allow 6.6 yppp to an average quarterback and he’s making up for a sluggish rushing attack that has managed just 3.7 yards per rushing play. Overall, the Panthers have averaged 6.9 yppl this in 4 games against teams that would combine to allow 5.7 yppl to an average team and Toledo’s sub-par defense (5.2 yppl allowed to teams that would average 4.8 yppl against an average team) doesn’t figure to slow Pitt down much in this game. Overall, my math model favors Pittsburgh by 28 points with Cochran back at quarterback for Toledo and the Rockets have historically performed worse on the road (11-18-3 ATS) under coach Tom Amstutz than they have at home (19-7 ATS). That road record includes a record of 2-11-2 ATS after consecutive wins and 2-8 ATS in non-conference games, so I don’t expect Toledo to play better than normal in this game. But, they aren’t likely to cover the spread if they do play at their normal level. I’ll take Pittsburgh in a 4-Star Best Bet at -14 points or less and for 3-Stars from -14 ½ to -17 points (2-Stars from -17 ½ to -21).
3 Star Selection
KENT STATE (+3.0) 27 Akron 15
30-Sep-06 11:00 AM Pacific Time
Two games from earlier this season have led to what is a horrible line in this game – Kent State’s 0-44 home loss to Minnesota in week 1 and Akron’s 20-17 win at NC State in week 2. Kent State’s loss to Minnesota was the most misleading final score of the season so far. The Golden Flashes averaged 6.3 yards per play in that game and blew numerous scoring opportunities with 6 turnovers. Kent State has continued to move the ball, as they have now averaged 6.0 yppl for the season against teams that would combine to allow 5.6 yppl to an average team. Kent did allow 6.7 yppl to Minnesota’s potent attack in game 1, but their defense has stiffened since then – allowing under 4 yppl in each of their last 3 games. For the season the Flashes have yielded just 4.5 yppl against teams that would combine to average 5.1 yppl against an average defensive team. Kent is not only a good MAC team, they are a good team, period. Akron is perceived to be a good team, in part because of that road win at NC State. The Zips are mediocre from the line of scrimmage, rating at 0.2 yppl worse than average offensively (4.8 yppl against teams that would allow 5.0 yppl to an average team) and 0.2 yppl better than average on defense (4.7 yppl allowed to teams that would average 4.9 yppl against an average defense). However, Akron is horrible in special teams and that makes them worse than average overall (but still good for a MAC team). Kent State is nearly as bad on special teams and the Flashes are clearly better than Akron on both sides of the line of scrimmage. My math model forecasts a 349 yards to 261 yards edge for Kent in this game and favors the Flashes by 12 ½ points. I’ve been wanting to play Kent State the last couple of weeks (upset wins at Miami-Ohio and Bowling Green), but there have been situations going against them. That is not the case this week, as Kent State applies to a solid 113-60-4 ATS home underdog momentum situation and a 30-11-2 ATS situation that plays on home teams coming off a 3 or more consecutive road games. I’ll take Kent State in a 3-Star Best Bet at -1 or better and I’ll Downgrade Kent State to a 2-Star Best Bet from -1 ½ to -3 points.
2 Star Selection
UTAH (-4.0) 30 Boise St. 19
30-Sep-06 12:00 PM Pacific Time
Utah is coming off 3 consecutive impressive performances since losing their opener at UCLA and the Utes apply to a 32-3-1 ATS subset of a 182-90-7 ATS home momentum situation. Boise State, meanwhile, applies to a negative 19-55-1 ATS road letdown situation and a negative 22-55-2 ATS game 5 situation. Those situations combine to give Utah a 62.4% chance of covering at a fair line, which would put this solidly into 3-Star territory if the line were fair. Unfortunately, that is not the case. Boise State is a good team that rates at 0.7 yards per play better than average on offense (6.3 yppl against teams that would allow 5.6 yppl to an average team) and 0.1 yppl worse than average on defense (4.9 yppl allowed to teams that would average 4.8 yppl against an average defense). Utah, meanwhile, rates at 0.2 yppl better than average offensively (6.0 yppl against teams that would allow 5.8 yppl) and 0.2 yppl better than average defensively (4.3 yppl allowed to teams that would average 4.5 yppl against an average stop unit). Boise State is a bit better overall from the line of scrimmage and my math model favors the Utes by just 1 ½ points. However, the situations are strong enough to give up some line value and I’ll take Utah in a 2-Star Best Bet at -4 points or less and for 3-Stars at -3 points or less. Downgrade Utah to a Strong Opinion if they become a favorite from 4 ½ to 6 points..
3 Star Selection
CINCINNATI (-9.0) 34 Miami Ohio 14
30-Sep-06 12:30 PM Pacific Time
I guess it hasn’t quite registered with the public how bad Miami-Ohio is this year. Or, it’s hard to tell how good Cincinnati is based on 3 double-digit losses to good teams Pittsburgh, Ohio State, and Virginia Tech. The Bearcats have been respectable in all 3 of those losses and they’re a pretty decent team. Cincy has averaged only 4.7 yards per play in their 4 games this season, but they’ve played teams that would allow a combined 5.2 yppl to an average team and the Bearcats have actually been average offensively when starting quarterback Dustin Grutza is on the field (4.9 yppl against teams that would allow 4.9 yppl to an average team). Grutza has completed 67% of his passes this season and connected on 18 of 22 passes against Ohio State’s tough defense a couple of weeks ago. For the season Grutza has averaged 6.2 yards per pass play against teams that would combine to allow just 5.4 yppp to an average quarterback, and he should have no trouble finding open receivers against a Miami-Ohio defense that has surrendered 6.7 yppp to teams that would average only 5.6 yppp against an average defense. Miami is even worse defending the run, allowing 5.9 yards per rushing play to teams that would average only 4.6 yprp against an average team. Cincinnati has been horrible running the ball so far this year (3.4 yprp), but they should run at a decent clip in this game and my math model projects 412 total yards at 6.5 yppl for the Bearcats in this game. Miami-Ohio is struggling offensively with an offensive line that doesn’t run block well (just 4.0 yprp against teams that would allow 4.8 yprp to an average team) or protect the passer (23 sacks allowed in just 4 games). The Redhawks have averaged just 4.6 yppl this year (against teams that would allow 5.3 yppl to an average attack) and my math model projects 288 total yards at 4.6 yppl against a mediocre Cincinnati defense that has yielded 5.7 yppl to teams that would average 5.7 yppl against an average stop unit. The Bearcats rate at better than average in special teams and they’re slightly better than average overall. Miami-Ohio, meanwhile, is in a rebuilding year (just 7 total returning starters) and the Redhawks are a well below average Division 1A team. My math model favors Cincy by 19 ½ points and I’ll take Cincinnati in a 3-Star Best Bet at -10 points or less and for 2-Stars at -10 ½ or -11 points.
5 Star Selection
FLORIDA (-13.5) 38 Alabama 3
30-Sep-06 12:30 PM Pacific Time
Florida failed to cover for me last week against Kentucky, as they won just 26-7 (as a favorite of 24 to 26 points, depending on when you played it) despite racking up 514 yards at 7.8 yards per play and allowing just 249 yards at 4.2 yppl. Normally, stats like that would result in a win of about 27 points. However, that spread loss last week has kept the line on this game down and I like the Gators even more. Florida has averaged 7.1 yards per play this season and they’ve allowed only 3.9 yppl against a slightly better than average schedule of teams that would combine to average 5.6 yppl while allowing 5.4 yppl to an average team. Those are dominating numbers and Florida is the best team in the nation right now. Alabama, meanwhile, is a worse than average team on a national scale so far this season. The Crimson Tide have averaged 5.7 yppl against teams that would combine to allow 5.9 yppl to an average team and they’ve allowed 5.4 yppl to teams that would average 5.6 yppl against an average defense. As you can see Alabama is just average overall from the line of scrimmage and they are a bit worse than average in special teams, which makes them slightly worse than average overall. My math model favors Florida by 28 ½ points and the Gators apply to a very strong 204-105-4 ATS statistical match-up indicator. The Gators have a 66% chance of covering the 13 ½ points spread in this game based on the line value alone (that is based on the historical results of my math model taking into account my prediction and the actual line). The angle has a 62% chance of working at a fair number and the combination of the line value and the statistical indicator gives Florida a 73% chance of covering at -13 ½ points. Rarely do I see a game with more than 70% overall chance of covering, but when I do it gets a 5-Star rating. I will take Florida for 5-Stars at -14 points or less, for 4-Stars from -14 ½ to -17 points, for 3-Stars from -17 ½ to -21 points and I would have played the Gators in this game at -23 points or less. Note: A 5-Star does not mean that this game is a “Lockâ€
posted by phantom
Sept. 29 2006 5:10pm -
0 likes
TRACE FIELDS
" May the Force be with you "
INTERGALACTIC PLAY OF THE MILLENNIUM.
MIAMI FLORIDA -16
posted by phantom
Sept. 29 2006 5:12pm -
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Northcoast comp play
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Under Detroit/St louis 43 1/2 total pro play of the week.
Free Selection by: Otto Sports
Game: Utah v. Boise State
Selection: Boise State +5.5
It seems odd that these two teams haven’t met in seven years. It should be much more of a yearly rivalry game as both teams have enjoyed national success over the last couple of years, and have really grown their programs. This year both teams seem on a path to become their conference champions and both would be keeping hope for a BCS birth alive with a win in this contest. Both feature above average defensive units equally stout against the run, and good enough in the secondary. A slight edge probably lies in the Boise State running game, and back Ian Johnson. While Utah may have an edge with their spread offense style attack. We saw Hawaii give Boise State fits with a similar style offense last week. We know the home field advantage the Broncos enjoy at the “smurf turfâ€
posted by phantom
Sept. 29 2006 5:13pm -
0 likes
Dave Cokin -
Radio Selections:
Bowling Green +6
No. Illinois - 7
Fresno St. - 10
posted by phantom
Sept. 29 2006 5:54pm