Nail da man!!!! 18 replies
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winning points
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****BEST BET
*Detroit over Green Bay by 24
Even when they were good, the Packers couldn’t cover inside Detroit’s
noisy dome stadium. So now that the Packers are really bad, what figures to
happen? That’s easy. Expect the Lions to cover for the ninth time in their
last 10 home games against Green Bay.The Lions’ pass rush is going to overwhelm
the Packers’ rookie guards and inexperienced center.We see star
defensive tackle Shaun Rogers bottling up Ahman Green, while good-looking
rookie Ernie Sims and Detroit’s edge pass rushers make life miserable
for Brett Favre.You know what happens when Favre is thrown out of his
comfort zone? He starts throwing interception after interception. Detroit
held Shaun Alexander to 51 yards rushing opening week and Thomas Jones
to 64 last Sunday. It wasn’t a fluke.Rogers is a tremendous force and Detroit
has quick, active linebackers. So they shouldn’t have any problems with the
Packers’ ground attack.The Lions have had all preseason and two weeks of
the regular season to get comfortable operating their new offense installed
by Mike Martz.This is the week Detroit’s offense breaks loose after opening
against two tough defenses, Seattle and Chicago on grass.There’s talent
with Roy Williams and Kevin Jones.The Packers are the youngest team in
the NFL. Whether Favre cares to admit it or not, Green Bay definitely is
rebuilding with 14 rookies. It’s Green Bay’s first road game, first on artificial
turf and first in a dome stadium. None is a good combination for the
Packers. So expect plenty of Green Bay mistakes.And expect Detroit to capitalize.
The Lions have far better special teams, too, and are much more
intense under Rod Marinelli. Green Bay is struggling with its punting game.
This is a kill spot for the Lions, who are looking for a patsy to take their
frustrations out on.There’s not much the Packers can do, especially being
on carpet inside a dome. DETROIT 33-9.
***BEST BET
*Arizona over St. Louis by 20
The Cardinals are enjoying something rare these days. No, not great wide
receivers.They’ve had that with Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin. Its outstanding
crowd support coupled with rare optimism in the Valley. This is
Arizona’s second game in its new state-of-the-art stadium. The crowd will
be rocking. So will Kurt Warner, facing his ex-team where he enjoyed his
greatest success.Warner completed 56 of 81 passes for 612 yards and three
touchdowns in two meetings against St. Louis last year.The Cards draw the
Rams in a great situational spot. Not only is this an off-surface for St. Louis,
but the Rams are playing their fourth road game in five weeks going back
to preseason. It’s also St. Louis’ second West Coast trip in two weeks.The
Rams have been struggling on offense as they learn a new system under a
first-year head coach.Their first-string failed to score a TD during preseason
and in Week 1 at home against Denver.Then in Week 2, against a weak San
Francisco defense, could only manage one TD.There is some unrest in the
offensive line as reliable starting center Andy McCollum is out for the season
with a knee injury.The Rams defense seems to have better chemistry
and is well-coached with new defensive coordinator Jim Haslett and veterans
Will Witherspoon, La’Roi Glover and Corey Chavous. The secondary
remains vulnerable, though.The Cardinals have more than enough passing
firepower to take advantage. Unlike previous years, the Rams can’t ignore
the run either because Arizona has become balanced with the addition of
Edgerrin James.The Cards have covered four of their past five against the
Rams. They should have swept both games last season against the Rams,
out-gaining them 409-324 and having the ball on the St. Louis five-yard line
when time expired.This time there’s no confusion at home, and we finally
do mean home field for Arizona.ARIZONA 34-14.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ ~
**PREFERRED
New York Jets over *Buffalo by 4
We’re going against the grain a bit here with this selection since its
Buffalo’s home opener and the Bills have won and covered their past three
home games against the Jets. New York is just 5-12-2 as a road underdog.
But we like the way Chad Pennington is looking, especially compared to
counterpart J.P. Losman. Pennington has thrown for 625 yards and four
touchdowns compared to Losman’s 247 yards and one touchdown strike.
Losman has no chemistry with any of his receivers. Lee Evans, Buffalo’s best
wideout, has caught four passes for 44 yards. Pennington, on the other
hand, can pick apart a Bills secondary missing their veteran safeties with
his pin-point accuracy. Buffalo finished second-from-the-bottom in rush
defense last year. The Bills already have surrendered 275 yards on the
ground this season.The Bills are forced to rely on five rookies on defenses
because of injuries. They may not be without their best defender, linebacker
Takeo Spikes (check status), again this week. So even the mediocre
Jets running back can do enough to keep the Bills from spending most of
their attention on Pennington and Laveranues Coles.The Jets are showing
resiliency under first-year head coach Eric Mangini. This isn’t much of a
road trip either for them. NY JETS 20-16.
Denver over *New England by 3
Committing nine turnovers his last three games, Jake Plummer has perhaps
lost some zip on his passes. In Denver, there’s talk of replacing Plummer
with rookie Jay Cutler.Throw in a double revenge spot for the Patriots playing
at home and the choice obviously should be New England, right? Not
so fast. Few defenses are playing as well as Denver’s right now.The Broncos
have held both St. Louis and Kansas City out of the end zone. Mike
Shanahan is an NFL-best 29-11 in September.Things aren’t so rosy in New
England despite a 2-0 start.The Patriots were flat opening week trailing by
10 at halftime against the Bills before pulling it out.Then they allowed the
Jets to score 17 unanswered points last week before holding off their division
rival.The Patriots are thin at wide receiver with Deion Branch off to
Seattle, their kicker is unproven and their defense has slipped.The Broncos
decisively defeated the Patriots, 27-13, in the playoffs. Yes, that was in
Denver. But what has changed? The Broncos have added star wide receiver
Javon Walker, while the Patriots suffered more coaching defections, lost
potential Hall of Fame kicker Adam Vinatieri and got older on defense.The
Patriots are going to find the Broncos much tougher to run against than the
Bills and Jets. DENVER 20-17.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ ~~~
*CLOSE CALLS
Cincinnati over *Pittsburgh by 1
The Bengals believed they were better than the Steelers last year, until losing
Carson Palmer. Here’s their chance to prove it. Certainly they won’t
lack for motivation. Palmer has had two regular-season games to get comfortable.
Expect T.J. Houshmandzadeh back, after missing the first two
games, to relieve any double-teams off Chad Johnson. The Bengals draw
Pittsburgh on a short week having met Jacksonville on the road Monday,
and with the possibility Ben Roethlisberger still might not be 100 percent
following an appendectomy. They’ll have to stop Willie Parker, who averaged
6.1 yards rushing against the Bengals last year. CINCINNATI 21-20.
*Indianapolis over Jacksonville by 6
Although the Jaguars lost twice to the Colts last year, they only were outgained
by 40 yards and held Indy to an average of 18 points a game, nine
points below their average. Indy has won six of the last eight against
Jacksonville, but is just 2-5-1 ATS.The Colts were lucky to escape the Giants.
The Colts’ defense is down a notch from last year. The Colts also tend to
struggle against aggressive, physical defensives such as the Jaguars.
However, Jacksonville’s defensive interior is banged-up. Peyton Manning is
playing at a high level and the Jaguars can’t stop both Marvin Harrison and
Reggie Wayne. INDIANAPOLIS 25-19.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ ~~~
over/unders
OVER/UNDER
**OVER: Tennesse at Miami - Miami should get its offense in gear
against a defense surrendering 31.5 points per game, while Tennessee’s
Kerry Collins has had two starts to get adjusted to his new team.
UNDER: Baltimore at Cleveland – Neither team has a feared running
attack and the Browns are 5-15-1 to the under their past 21 games.
OVER: Philadelphia at San Francisco – The 49ers are much improved
offensively, while the Eagles have an outstanding passing attack
posted by phantom
Sept. 19 2006 6:04pm -
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winning points
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reg newsletters plays
4
*Miami over Tennessee by 11
We have two equally unattractive choices. Either lay big points with a disappointing
0-2 Dolphins team whose quarterback, Daunte Culpepper, still
looks rusty, or back a Titans squad that arguably could be the worst in the
NFL having lost at home to the Jets and was annihilated by San Diego.You
would think the brutal South Florida humidity wouldn’t bother Tennessee.
Miami has won 25 of its last 32 home games in August and September,
though. It’s the Titans seconds straight road game against a tough defense.
The Titans have dropped 11 of their last 12 away contests, while covering
just two of those road games. MIAMI 31-20.
Washington over *Houston by 4
If the Redskins can’t get their vertical game working they’re in real trouble.
Only five teams allowed more TD passes than Houston last year.Already this
season the Texans have allowed six scoring passes. True, they’ve faced
Donovan McNabb and Peyton Manning, but there are still too many blown
coverages in the Texans’ secondary.The Texans don’t have much of a home
field advantage even though the Redskins are traveling a second week having
faced division arch-rival Dallas this past Sunday night.The Texans have
managed to cover just two of their last 10 home games.Washington is 5-1
ATS the week after playing Dallas.WASHINGTON 21-17.
Chicago over *Minnesota by 5
The Vikings are 2-0 this season.They’ve won their past four at home against
Chicago. But we can’t see 38-year-old Brad Johnson moving the ball much
here.The Bears limited foes to 12.6 points last year.Believe it or not, they’re
even better this season holding the Packers and Lions to a combined seven
points. Rex Grossman is playing at his highest level, having thrown for 551
yards and five touchdown passes so far with just one interception. No quarterback
controversy now in Chicago. The Bears’ receivers also are doing
better than expected. The Vikings exerted a lot of energy upsetting
Washington on the road and Carolina in overtime. CHICAGO 21-16.
Carolina over *Tampa Bay by 4
Can the Panthers be this bad? Can the Bucs also be this bad, scoring three
points on the season and having Cadillac Williams rush for just 59 yards? At
least the Panthers have an excuse. Their offensive line has had two key
injuries and Steve Smith (check status) has yet to play.We’d still lean toward
Carolina if Smith is ready to return to action even though it’s the Panthers
third consecutive road game counting preseason and their offensive line is
unstable. Tampa Bay’s offensive line has been overmatched. So has Chris
Simms, who has thrown six interceptions and had numerous passes batted
down at the line of scrimmage.The Panthers have won and covered five of
the past six in the series. CAROLINA 20-16.
Baltimore over *Cleveland by 4
Cleveland’s offense can’t afford to be confused and disorganized the way
it’s looked so far against a defense as good as the Ravens. Rueben Droughns
is a tough inside runner, but there haven’t been many holes with the
Browns breaking in a new center and guard this season. You know the
Browns’ running game has a ways to go when quarterback Charlie Frye is
nearly the team’s leading rusher.The Ravens’ offense, though, is a work in
progress, too, with Steve McNair learning his new receivers and throwing
behind an aged offensive line. Baltimore has lost 11 of its last 12 road
games, covering just three of the last 12 away contests. BALTIMORE 13-9.
*Seattle over New York Giants by 1
You have to respect the Giants, who out-gained the Colts by two yards per
snap in their opener and then knocked off the Eagles on the road. Seattle
was lucky to beat New York last year in overtime. It’s tough to step in
against the Seahawks at home, however. Seattle has won its last 11 home
games, going 9-2 ATS.This is cross-country flight for the Giants. Seattle has
the defensive quickness to contain Tiki Barber and pressure Eli Manning.
Matt Hasselbeck is playing well. He should have added receiving depth to
attack a vulnerable Giants secondary with Deion Branch likely to be activated
this week. SEATTLE 24-23.
Philadelphia over *San Francisco by 9
Donovan McNabb loves that San Francisco secondary. He threw five TD
passes against it in just three quarters last year. He is healthy and playing at
a high level. This is Philly’s only road trip in a four-week span.The Eagles
shouldn’t be in a letdown mode, though, after losing a tough division game
in overtime to the Giants. Frank Gore and Antonio Bryant continue to shine
for the 49ers.The 49ers’ confidence is high after beating the Rams at home.
Their defense and quarterback, though, aren’t in the Eagles’ class.
PHILADELPHIA 32-23.
Atlanta over *New Orleans by 3 (Monday)
Michael Vick should be able to exploit the Saints’ young safeties both running
and passing, but this is a huge, emotional game for New Orleans.The
Saints finally return to the Superdome for the first time in two years after
the tragedies of Hurricane Katrina. The crowd and a national television
audience are sure to be with the underdog Saints. Reggie Bush and Deuce
McAllister can take advantage of a weak Falcons’ rush defense, especially if
inside linebacker Ed Hartwell (check status) and lineman John Abraham
(check status) remain out.The Falcons are off tough division games against
the Panthers and Buccaneers.ATLANTA 23-20.
HISTORICAL TRENDS
New York Jets at Buffalo – The teams split last season with the Bills winning,
27-17, at home and losing, 30-26, on the road.The Bills are 3-0 SU and
ATS their last three at home in the series.
Cincinnati at Pittsburgh – Pittsburgh won, 27-13, on the road last year, but
lost, 38-31 at home. The Steelers also defeated the Bengals, 31-17, on the
road in the playoffs.The last four in Pittsburgh have gone over the total.
Jacksonville at Indianapolis – The Colts beat the Jaguars twice last season,
10-3 at home and 26-18 on the road. The Colts are 6-2 SU against the
Jaguars, but 2-5-1 ATS.
Tennessee at Miami – The Dolphins won 24-10, at home last year.
Washington at Houston – Washington beat Houston, 26-10, at home in ‘02.
Chicago at Minnesota – The teams split last season with the Vikings losing,
28-3, on the road and winning, 34-10, at home. Minnesota is 4-0 SU and 3-1
ATS at home against Chicago.
Carolina at Tampa Bay – Tampa Bay lost, 34-14, at home last year and won,
20-10, at Carolina.The Panthers are 5-1 SU and ATS the last six in the series
.
Green Bay at Detroit – The teams split last year with Detroit winning, 17-
3, at home and losing, 16-13, at Green Bay.The Lions are 8-1 ATS at home
against the Packers.
Baltimore at Cleveland – Baltimore defeated Cleveland, 16-3, at home last
year and lost, 20-16, to the Browns on the road.
St. Louis at Arizona – The teams split last season with the Rams winning,
17-12, on the road and losing, 38-28, at home.The Rams are 5-2 SU in the
series, but the Cardinals are 4-1 ATS the past five.
New York Giants at Seattle – The Seahawks edged the Giants, 24-21, in overtime
at home last year.
Philadelphia at San Francisco – The Eagles won 42-3, at home last year.
Denver at New England – The Broncos beat the Patriots twice last season at
home, winning 28-20 during the regular season and 27-13 in the playoffs.
Atlanta at New Orleans – Atlanta swept New Orleans last year, winning 34-
31 on the road and 36-17 at home.
posted by phantom
Sept. 19 2006 6:04pm -
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Sports Reporters
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SUPER BEST BET
*MINNESOTA over CHICAGO by 17
It’s looking like the Vikings can and will just keep things simple this season, not allowing
themselves to be beaten by the kind of buffoonery that the Bears D thrives upon. Nitpickers
might point to them catching a break with vanquished opponents Washington
and Carolina playing with an injured Clinton Portis and an absent Steve Smith. But you
play the team that shows up, and only the people who believe in what happened last
week happening again will believe that Chicago has anything on offense that the improving
Vikings’ defense should be scared about. In the first meeting last season, Chicago got
two TDs on 1- and 3-yard drives...Daunte Culpepper boners! They’re gone. One of Brad
Childress’ first moves after being hired as new Minnesota head coach was to surround
himself with Lovie Smith’s aura. From Tampa Bay, he hired Mike Tomlin for Cover-2
knowledge. Then he plucked the guy who coached the Bears’ defensive line last season,
Kevin Dunbar. "In this particular division," Childress said, "right now it's all about the
Chicago Bears. What better way to beat that defense than to practice against it?" When
a guy is obviously targeting a September opponent in January, you have to consider him
as a wagon to hitch yourself to because he considers his team as an equal and is planning
for an edge to win not soon, not later, but now! MINNESOTA, 20-3.
RECOMMENDED
*MIAMI over TENNESSEE by 18
This is the kind of team that Daunte Culpepper has made his stats against since coming
into the NFL. When he plays against real defenses, he is a professional pick projector,
launching gifts, and sometimes dropping them on the ground in front of him, to all talented
and prepared opponents. But each Tennessee quarterback – Kerry Collins or Vince
Young (and you just can’t believe they are mentioned as a tandem on the same team!) -
- has Culpepper beat by a mile in the implosion category. Last season, the Titans OC
Norm Chow explained a bad Run-Pass Ratio as the result of falling behind frequently. So
far, nothing has changed. Jeff Fisher – good coach in a bad situation, really shouldn’t be
staying up late figuring out how to compete because he can get a job anywhere else if
either he or the owner allows his contract to expire after this season. One could direct a
lot of knocks Miami’s way with the 0-2 SU and ATS start, but they have the personnel to
cut into that record deficit rather convincingly unless Zach Thomas and Jason Taylor are
players formerly known as the Martz Brothers, who became instant converts when they saw
the light regarding the miracles of ball- and field position-security. Arizona QB Kurt Warner,
ex-Ram, brought up on wildness and still surrounded by it, is still a chalk-player’s worst
nightmare in a whack, pass-based system. His ex-protégée Marc Bulger is now being refined
as a more together St. Louis team re-molds around him. ARIZONA, 24-23.
RECOMMENDED
NY GIANTS over *SEATTLE by 5
Eli Manning and company found much success last year, but a sore spot from the season
remains the meltdown of their November visit to Seattle’s Qwest field. Despite gaining
490 total yards, Jay Feely, the Giants kicker, missed three field goals in the fourth
quarter and overtime to give away what could have been a tremendous road victory to
the then-surging Seahawks. Seattle is off a pair of stiffs, and looks to be weaker on the
offensive line as the loss of Steve Hutchinson and injuries to Walter Jones and others
have exposed Matt Hasselbeck to danger and limited the damage Shaun Alexander has
inflicted this season. There must also be some level of panic to induce management to
give up a first round pick and six years and $39 million to what amounts to a very good
possession receiver. Mr. Deion Branch may even suit up by this point, but it shouldn’t
BEST BET
*NEW ENGLAND over DENVER by 17
The prevailing opinion in these parts is that the zebras sacked the Pats in last year’s playoff
game in Denver. They simply could not catch a break from the powers that be and
therefore, the result of the game made it seem that Denver was more in control than in
reality. So there is major motivation in the New England locker room to even the score
and turn a new page in this rivalry. The Patriots have yet to find a groove early this season.
Tom Brady has admitted that the Deion Branch saga affected his own focus and performance
and that carried over to the rest of the team. Now that Branch has been jettisoned,
Tedy Bruschi is back, and Rodney Harrison gets stronger, expect the Pats to
improve. A big home revenge game is just what this team needs to re-instill the internal
fire. The Broncos put together a pitiful performance (tanking our Best Bet) at home
against the Damon Huard-led Chiefs, while Jake Plummer has tossed four picks to no
TDs thus far. The guy can’t get out of his own way lately and the Denver offense has been
nowhere since the offensive coordinator dude left for Houston. Secret to beating Denver?
Punt, pin ‘em back, and just wait, something good will happen for you. The Broncos’
offense wasn’t much last season, either, when an abundance of defensive and special
teams scores perched Denver’s power rating up to the summit of Pike’s Peak for 2006,
ready to plummet. NEW ENGLAND 27-10.
RECOMMENDED
*SAN FRANCISCO over PHILADELPHIA by 2
Philly has no mojo back, people. They beat nobody Houston, and just a targeted home
game against a division rival. Their pass-rush monster Kearse was carted off the field.
Donovan McNabb has ordinary receivers. Newly acquired receiver Dontae Stallworth? An
overration, as are most receivers not named Owens. These guys drop balls. Brian
Westbrook? Yawn. This overrated Eagles bunch heads to San Francisco to face a team
still in a rebuilding phase, but also a team that would like to at least compete for four
quarters against the opponent that in-your-faced them to their worst defeat of 2005,
when Terrell Owens was a crazed man leading the Philly charge against the 49ers organization
that “wrongedâ€
posted by phantom
Sept. 19 2006 6:06pm -
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sports reporter
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2
SUNDAY, SEPTEMBER 24
*BUFFALO over NY JETS by 3
Hmmm…were the players right in Buffalo? They’re 2-0 SU, with backers 2-0 ATS. Miami,
where ousted 2004 and 2005 Bills’ head coach Mike Mularkey is now the offensive coordinator,
is 0-2 SU and his backers are 0-2 ATS. Value is often inversely proportional to the
majority’s expectations. Can the Buffalo defense bring the type of pressure that will rattle the
cage of the Jets’ quarterback, known in some circles as Rag-Arm? Well, seven sacks of
Miami QB Daunte Culpepper last week would suggest to some people that a repeat performance
is coming. But Culpepper has no idea where he’s going with the football when it’s
in his hands. Rag Arm has more than just a token clue, and is probably better at reading
defenses than 95% of the QBs in the NFL. But the Jets got 0 first downs rushing last week,
and only 4 rushing first downs out of their 24 at Tennessee. Not as bad for an underdog as
it would be for a favorite. BUFFALO, 23-20.
*PITTSBURGH over CINCINNATI by 7
Both sides are balanced offensively and are particularly good at moving the chains on the
ground, so stopping the run will be a key to victory, no matter who you are eyeing. The
Bengals could be weaker in that respect after losing both SS Dexter Jackson (ankle) and LB
David Pollack (neck) to injury last Sunday. Their respective status for this week is unclear but
we will have to assume that Cincy’s defensive run support will be diminished. C Rich Braham
(knee) also had to be carted off the field and will probably be watching from the sidelines.
Though it is just Week 3, this game represents the battle for divisional prominence and both
sides will play with intensity and urgency. The Steelers will be favored coming off a short
week and have some injury questions of their own, but none of the significance that
Cincinnati will be dealing with. However, don’t expect the Bengals, who won here last season,
to be intimidated. PITTSBURGH 27-20.
*INDIANAPOLIS over JACKSONVILLE by 4
If you can't run against Jags, you shouldn’t be able to dominate them. Bye-bye Edge, byebye
Indy, at least as far as this match-up is concerned? The Jags have recently played the
Colts very tough, by virtue of having a very dangerous secondary, adept at both pass defense
and run support. After 7- and 8-point losses against Indy last season where Edgerrin James
got 121 and 93 rushing yards, and 30 and 39 total touches for the Colts, the Jags have to
like their chances of containing the run and the short pass, preventing Peyton Manning from
doing what he normally does vertically, which is move the ball up and down the field. A 400-
yard passing day by Manning against Houston last Sunday might be the perfect public positioner
to create some value vs. the home side. It’s too early in the season to say that Yahoo
Jack’s Jags will be burned out by having gone head to head with the Steelers on Monday
Night. It’s a divisional game with double-revenge. They’ll show. INDIANAPOLIS, 23-19.
RECOMMENDED
*MIAMI over TENNESSEE by 18
This is the kind of team that Daunte Culpepper has made his stats against since coming
into the NFL. When he plays against real defenses, he is a professional pick projector,
launching gifts, and sometimes dropping them on the ground in front of him, to all talented
and prepared opponents. But each Tennessee quarterback – Kerry Collins or Vince
Young (and you just can’t believe they are mentioned as a tandem on the same team!) -
- has Culpepper beat by a mile in the implosion category. Last season, the Titans OC
Norm Chow explained a bad Run-Pass Ratio as the result of falling behind frequently. So
far, nothing has changed. Jeff Fisher – good coach in a bad situation, really shouldn’t be
staying up late figuring out how to compete because he can get a job anywhere else if
either he or the owner allows his contract to expire after this season. One could direct a
lot of knocks Miami’s way with the 0-2 SU and ATS start, but they have the personnel to
cut into that record deficit rather convincingly unless Zach Thomas and Jason Taylor are
still spending too much time admiring themselves in the mirror. MIAMI, 25-7.
WASHINGTON over *HOUSTON by 3
Any defense – even one as overrated as Washington’s – is capable of winning in the trenches
against the Texans offensive line and the tackling dummy they repeatedly expose, QB
David Carr. Houston management didn’t draft Reggie Bush because the coach and GM do not
believe that a running back like him is worth the salary commanded when eventually, the
“systemâ€
posted by phantom
Sept. 19 2006 6:07pm -
0 likes
Thanks PHantom for posting this.
Still early in the week so I haven't looked at them yet but will come back to them later.
posted by close_call
Sept. 19 2006 7:30pm -
0 likes
NFL TRENDS - WEEK 3
Sunday, September 24th
NY Jets at Buffalo, 1:00 EST
NY Jets: 18-6 ATS off a home division loss
Buffalo: 6-17 ATS off a division win by 10+ points
Cincinnati at Pittsburgh, 1:00 EST
Cincinnati: 9-1 ATS away off a straight up win
Pittsburgh: 8-0 Over as a home favorite
Jacksonville at Indianapolis, 1:00 EST
Jacksonville: 12-4 Under in dome stadiums
Indianapolis: 14-5 ATS off BB ATS wins as favorites
Tennessee at Miami, 1:00 EST
Tennessee: 12-2 Over off BB losses
Miami: 1-7 ATS as a home favorite
Washington at Houston, 1:00 EST
Washington: 6-0 Under off BB ATS losses
Houston: 1-6 ATS in September
Chicago at Minnesota, 1:00 EST
Chicago: 8-1 Under away off a home game
Minnesota: 18-6 ATS as a home underdog
Carolina at Tampa Bay, 1:00 EST
Carolina: 6-0 ATS away vs. division opponents
Tampa Bay: 13-4 Under off a road game
Green Bay at Detroit, 1:00 EST
Green Bay: 0-6 ATS vs. division opponents
Detroit: 6-1 ATS off a loss by 14+ points
Baltimore at Cleveland, 4:05 EST
Baltimore: 10-2 Under away vs. conference opponents
Cleveland: 13-5 Under in home games
St. Louis at Arizona, 4:15 EST
St. Louis: 2-8 ATS as a road underdog of 7 or less points
Arizona: 7-1 Over off BB ATS losses
NY Giants at Seattle, 4:15 EST
NY Giants: 18-7 ATS after gaining 400+ total yards
Seattle: 2-11 ATS off a division game
Philadelphia at San Francisco, 4:15 EST
Philadelphia: 11-3 Under off an Over
San Francisco: 22-10 ATS after allowing 400+ total yards
Denver at New England, 8:15 EST NBC
Denver: 8-0 Under off a division win
New England: 11-2 ATS after allowing 75 or less rushing yards
** (TC) Denotes Time Change
Monday, September 25th
Atlanta at New Orleans, 8:30 EST ESPN
Atlanta: 11-3 ATS at New Orleans
New Orleans: 16-34 ATS at home vs. division opponents
** (TC) Denotes Time Change
NFL Week 3 Bye Week:
Dallas Cowboys, Kansas City Chiefs, Oakland Raiders, San Diego Chargers
posted by phantom
Sept. 19 2006 8:08pm -
0 likes
NFL TRENDS - WEEK 3
NY JETS (1 - 1) at BUFFALO (1 - 1) - 9/24/2006, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NY JETS are 8-20 ATS (-14.0 Units) in all games where the total is 35 or less since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
BUFFALO is 3-1 against the spread versus NY JETS over the last 3 seasons
BUFFALO is 2-2 straight up against NY JETS over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
CINCINNATI (2 - 0) at PITTSBURGH (1 - 0) - 9/24/2006, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CINCINNATI is 41-64 ATS (-29.4 Units) versus division opponents since 1992.
PITTSBURGH is 107-77 ATS (+22.3 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
PITTSBURGH is 4-1 against the spread versus CINCINNATI over the last 3 seasons
PITTSBURGH is 4-1 straight up against CINCINNATI over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
JACKSONVILLE (1 - 0) at INDIANAPOLIS (2 - 0) - 9/24/2006, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
JACKSONVILLE is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in September games over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
JACKSONVILLE is 2-1 against the spread versus INDIANAPOLIS over the last 3 seasons
INDIANAPOLIS is 3-1 straight up against JACKSONVILLE over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
TENNESSEE (0 - 2) at MIAMI (0 - 2) - 9/24/2006, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TENNESSEE is 11-23 ATS (-14.3 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 11-23 ATS (-14.3 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 7-17 ATS (-11.7 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
MIAMI is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) in all games where the total is 35 or less over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
MIAMI is 1-1 against the spread versus TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
MIAMI is 1-1 straight up against TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
WASHINGTON (0 - 2) at HOUSTON (0 - 2) - 9/24/2006, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
WASHINGTON is 39-61 ATS (-28.1 Units) as a favorite since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
CHICAGO (2 - 0) at MINNESOTA (2 - 0) - 9/24/2006, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
CHICAGO is 3-1 against the spread versus MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
MINNESOTA is 2-2 straight up against CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
CAROLINA (0 - 2) at TAMPA BAY (0 - 2) - 9/24/2006, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CAROLINA is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in road games versus division opponents over the last 3 seasons.
CAROLINA is 80-56 ATS (+18.4 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
CAROLINA is 3-1 against the spread versus TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons
CAROLINA is 3-1 straight up against TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
GREEN BAY (0 - 2) at DETROIT (0 - 2) - 9/24/2006, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
GREEN BAY is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) versus division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
GREEN BAY is 23-39 ATS (-19.9 Units) in games played on turf since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
DETROIT is 3-1 against the spread versus GREEN BAY over the last 3 seasons
GREEN BAY is 3-1 straight up against DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
BALTIMORE (2 - 0) at CLEVELAND (0 - 2) - 9/24/2006, 4:05 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
CLEVELAND is 2-2 against the spread versus BALTIMORE over the last 3 seasons
CLEVELAND is 2-2 straight up against BALTIMORE over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
ST LOUIS (1 - 1) at ARIZONA (1 - 1) - 9/24/2006, 4:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ST LOUIS is 35-54 ATS (-24.4 Units) in road games since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 35-54 ATS (-24.4 Units) in road lined games since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 56-81 ATS (-33.1 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
ARIZONA is 5-15 ATS (-11.5 Units) in home games in September games since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
ARIZONA is 3-1 against the spread versus ST LOUIS over the last 3 seasons
ARIZONA is 2-2 straight up against ST LOUIS over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
NY GIANTS (1 - 1) at SEATTLE (2 - 0) - 9/24/2006, 4:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SEATTLE is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in home games in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in home lined games over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) off a division game over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 13-31 ATS (-21.1 Units) off a win against a division rival since 1992.
SEATTLE is 10-25 ATS (-17.5 Units) as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
NY GIANTS is 1-0 against the spread versus SEATTLE over the last 3 seasons
SEATTLE is 1-0 straight up against NY GIANTS over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
PHILADELPHIA (1 - 1) at SAN FRANCISCO (1 - 1) - 9/24/2006, 4:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PHILADELPHIA is 104-74 ATS (+22.6 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
PHILADELPHIA is 1-0 against the spread versus SAN FRANCISCO over the last 3 seasons
PHILADELPHIA is 1-0 straight up against SAN FRANCISCO over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
DENVER (1 - 1) at NEW ENGLAND (2 - 0) - 9/24/2006, 8:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ENGLAND is 15-3 ATS (+11.7 Units) in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
DENVER is 2-0 against the spread versus NEW ENGLAND over the last 3 seasons
DENVER is 2-0 straight up against NEW ENGLAND over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
ATLANTA (2 - 0) at NEW ORLEANS (2 - 0) - 9/25/2006, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ORLEANS is 16-34 ATS (-21.4 Units) in home games versus division opponents since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
NEW ORLEANS is 3-1 against the spread versus ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
ATLANTA is 3-1 straight up against NEW ORLEANS over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
posted by phantom
Sept. 19 2006 8:08pm -
0 likes
Power Sweep
NCAA: 4*TEX
3*FLA ST
3*LOUISVILLE
2*AIR FORCE
2*MICH
2*ARK
DOG OF WEEK:MICH ST
NFL: 4*BALT
3*PHI
2*GIA
2*JAX
Pro Stat Play:BALT
Pro Angle Plays:3*BUFF,3*WASH,3*JAX
posted by phantom
Sept. 21 2006 3:05pm -
0 likes
marc lawrence newsletter
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AWESOME ANGLE
OF THE WEEK
ATS W-L Record
Since 1980:
14-1
WE'RE
READY! PLAY ON unc & wisky
INCREDIBLE STAT OF THE WEEK
Be sure to read the INCREDIBLE STAT OF THE WEEK
each week in the PLAYBOOK Football Newsletter!
road in these ‘Game Four On The Floor’ situations as teams
off a loss of 24 or more points are 20-7 ATS while teams
that allowed 36 or more points are 34-12 ATS. We’ll see if
the .
There you have it... a critical Game 4 theory that will likely
Boise State's Blue Carpet Broncos
are 16-1 ATS as conference home favorites
of < 28 points.
Saturday, September 23rd
3 BEST BET
At the beginning of the season, Michigan players vowed to
get revenge on all the teams that contributed to last year's
mediocre 7-5 season. This is the second of those revenge plots.
Unfortunately for Wolverine backers, UM is just 4-10 ATS in its
last ten as home favorites, 2-7 ATS in the last nine games of
this series and a woeful 2-10 ATS in games off a SU dog win,
including 0-7 ATS when favored by 7 or more points. Wisconsin
an amazing 29-6 ATS in its last 35 tries as underdogs of +7
or more. Add to the mix the fact that amnesia settles in real
quick for teams who upset Notre Dame, as Big Blue did in our
Underdog Game of the Month call last week. These forgetful
fellows are just 4-17-1 ATS as favorites in anti-Irish followup
games. Our Awesome Angle (see page 2) clinches it - we're
on the Badgers here today.
4 BEST BET
OHIO STATE over Penn State by 24
That green Nittany Lion secondary was torched by Brady
Quinn and it doesn't fi gure to do much better against Troy
Smith (still yet to toss a pick this season). Penn State has
trouble getting started in conference play as its 0-8 ATS record
in Big Ten openers attests and the Lions are 0-6 SUATS on this
fi eld in their last six tries. Revenge also fi gures into the mix.
Penn State held the Bucks to a season-low ten points last
year. Even though the winner of this game has managed
to score no more than 21 points in the last four meetings,
the Buckeyes are 33-4 SU & 23-1-31 ATS in the Horseshoe
with Tressel, including 14-5-1 ATS in conference play. They're
also riding a 10-0 SUATS win streak since last season! It's no
wonder they're the Number One team in the nation.
GAME OF THE WEEK UPSET UPSET
Tulsa over NAVY by 6
Two years ago, when Steve Kragthorpe was in the process
of rebuilding the Tulsa football program, the Midshipmen
rode into town and laid a 29-0 whitewash on the Golden
Hurricane. A lot of water has passed through the bilge since
then but Tulsa has not forgotten. The Big Breeze would love
to return the favor. Since Tulsa is 8-1 ATS in its last nine road
games and Navy is 4-17 ATS at home vs an opponent off a SU
win, revenge may be attained. Remember, the Middies just
avenged a win at Stanford last Saturday and have three others
revengers waiting on deck. We smell an upset.
5 BEST BET
Utah has the credentials to get the win here. The Utes are
13-6 ATS in their last 19 road games and 15-2 ATS the week
after playing Utah State. They're also looking to avenge an
embarrassing loss as double-digit home favorites suffered
against the Aztecs last season. San Diego State will be a
competitive team under Chuck Long but the Aztecs are
without their starting QB and have a lot of holes in their
secondary. He's also a fi rst-year coach in a bad situation.
Namely, college football rookie mentors are 10-25 ATS at
home versus a winning conference foe seeking revenge and
playing off a SUATS win, including 1-12 ATS the last 13 tries.
Utah over SAN DIEGO STATE by 17
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ ~
4 BEST BET
We can guarantee you that the Steelers would rather play any
of the other 30 teams in the league than face the dangerous
Bengals. In a visitor series (roadie is 8-1 ATS last nine), the
Bengals come into the Ketchup Bottle looking for playoff
revenge. They bring their 5-1 ATS mark in division revenge
games face to face with Pittsburgh. In addition, the Super
Bowl champs have that bullseye adorned on their uniforms
this season. Talk about live dogs? The Cats sure fi ll the bill.
Cincinnati over PITTSBURGH by 10
3 BEST BET
After two on the road at New England and at Miami with
an upset win under their belt, the Bills welcome their state
rivals to Rich Stadium. They better not be too giddy, however,
as Buffy has a propensity for letting down in a major way in
games after tackling Miami, going 4-23 ATS in post Dolphin
duels. We're never in a hurry to back division favorites off SU
underdog wins in which they were outstatted by over 100
yards. New York battled New England down to the wire last
week and can get this. Upset!
NY JETS over Buffalo by 6
5 BEST BET
The Bears have taken the money 15 times in the last 23
meetings with the Vikes. In 19 of those 23 games, Minnesota
was the favorite. The Norsemen have refused to fold the tent
under new head coach Brad Childress. That was evident in
last week's come from behind win over the Panthers. With
the Bruins a paltry 1-8 ATS during the opening month of the
season against a foe off back to back wins and 1-7 ATS on the
division road before back-to-back non division scrapes, we'll
stay on the Love Boat (the Vikes, not Smith) here.
MINNESOTA over Chicago by 7
3* wisky..jets ...u browns
4* ohio st..cinny (nfl) ,,u vikes
5* Utah (college) vikes..u 49ers
5*
posted by phantom
Sept. 21 2006 3:05pm -
0 likes
Dave Fobare’s College plays
..Tech Play of the Week
Central Mich (-4½) over @Eastern Mich
Value Dog
Jets (+6) over @Bills
False Favorite
Rams (+4½) over @Cardinals
Dave Fobare’s NFL Tech Play of the Week
@Detroit (–6½) over Green Bay
Niners Rising?
@Niners (+6) over Eagles
NFL System from Dave Fobare
Game 3 Under: In game 3, play the Under if our team has 0 or 1 win, finished last season above 0.500
SU, and the opponent is at least 0.500 SU.
Record since 1983: 5-0 ATS (100%)
This week’s application: Denver/New England under, NY Giants/Seattle under, and the under in this
Sunday’s game involving the loser of Monday Night’s (Steelers/Jags) game.
College System from Nelly’s Sportsline,
Double Digit Road Trip: Any NCAA double-digit underdog playing in their third consecutive road game.
Pointspread record since 1991: 74-49-1 (60%)
This week’s applications: Troy State, Ohio U, Buffalo, Florida Atlantic, and possibly Kent (if +10 or
more).
posted by phantom
Sept. 21 2006 3:07pm -
0 likes
Gold Sheet
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
HHHHHH KEY RELEASESHHHHHH
MIAMI by 21 over Tennessee
DETROIT by 16 over Green Bay
ATLANTA by 14 over New Orleans
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
OVER the total in the St. Louis-Arizona game
The Gold Sheet EXTRA!!! Technical Play of the Week
Arizona was only 2-8 as an underdog last season, but covered 2 of 3
chances getting more than 7 points. Baltimore has been a solid home favorite
lately (14-5-2 in role since ‘03), and though rarely “heavy chalkâ€
posted by phantom
Sept. 21 2006 3:07pm -
0 likes
Point Wise
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NFL Key Plays
This chart is to be used as a guide. For proper handicapping,
additional factors, such as injuries, tradition, incentive, trends,
weather, coaching, etc. must be taken into consideration.
BALTIMORE over Cleveland RATING: 2
CINCINNATI over Pittsburgh RATING: 3
NEW YORK GIANTS over Seattle RATING: 4
CHICAGO over Minnesota RATING: 4
JACKSONVILLE over Indianapolis RATING: 5
COLLEGE KEY RELEASES
BYU over Utah State RATING: 1
OHIO STATE over Penn State RATING: 1
MISSOURI over Ohio U RATING: 2
ALABAMA over Arkansas RATING: 3
BOISE STATE over Hawaii RATING: 3
MICHIGAN STATE over Notre Dame RATING: 4
NAVY over Tulsa RATING: 5
CONNECTICUT over Indiana RATING: 5
posted by phantom
Sept. 21 2006 3:09pm -
0 likes
Gold Sheet
SUNDAY, SEPTEMBER 24
BUFFALO 23 - NY Jets 13--Spread is a bit puffy, but young Bills showing lots of defense (25 pts. 1st two games) and own the better ground game. And Buffalo defense (7 sacks) had Daunte Culpepper under pressure virtually all day in last week's upset in Miami. That's not a positive for Jets team with two rookie OLmen, as promising as they are. Bills, finally making their home debut, now own one of the quickest secondaries in the league and are 8 of last 11 as home favorite.
(05-BUF. 27-Jets 17...B.24-17 B.39/177 N.21/149 B.18/26/2/164 N.12/26/2/126 B.0 N.1)
(05-JETS 30-Buf. 26...B.21-12 B.30/159 N.27/81 B.23/37/4/172 N.11/20/0/126 N.0 B.0)
(05-BUFFALO -3 27-17, NY JETS +1' 30-26...SR: Buffalo 50-41)
Cincinnati 24 - PITTSBURGH 23--Big revenge game for Cincy after LY's playoff loss in which Carson Palmer suffered torn knee ligaments. And Bengals an impressive 11-1-1 vs. line last 13 on road! After so little playing time in the preseason and then an appendectomy, must question whether Ben Roethlisberger is in top form. Cincy led NFL in TO margin (+24) LY, but Bengals so far seem to be backing up Marvin Lewis' pledge to be more stubborn on defense than LY's 22 ppg and 4.3 ypc. Steelers "over" 10-0-1 last 11 at home!
(05-Pitt 27-CINCY 13...20-20 P.47/221 C.19/91 C.21/36/2/211 P.9/14/1/83 P.1 C.0)
(05-Cincy 38-PITT 31...P.28-21 C.25/102 P.28/95 P.29/41/3/379 C.22/38/0/222 C.0 P.1)
(05-Pitt 31-CINCY 17...19-19 P.34/144 C.20/84 C.25/41/2/243 P.14/21/0/202 P.0 C.0)
(05-Pitt +1' 27-13, Cincy +3' 38-31, Pitt -3 31-17 (AFC Playoffs)...SR: Pittsburgh 43-29)
INDIANAPOLIS 24 - Jacksonville 20--Jags have played Peyton Manning's Colts just about as tough as everyone except the Pats in recent years, going 5-2-1 vs. spread last 8 meetings. Jacksonville's combo of physical offense & rugged defense has helped minimize Indy possession time and, consequently, TDs. Jag DL banged up a bit, but still getting the job done. Spread is hefty after Colts blowout of Texans. Jags appear equipped to be a 60-minute pest once again.
(05-INDY 10-Jack. 3...I.18-12 I.38/146 J.24/128 J.16/29/0/175 I.13/28/1/122 I.0 J.0)
(05-Indy 26-JACK. 18...I.25-18 I.34/99 J.23/74 I.24/37/0/300 J.26/35/0/250 I.1 J.3)
(05-INDIANAPOLIS -9 10-3, Indianapolis -8 26-18...SR: Indianapolis 8-2)
MIAMI 31 - Tennessee 10--Miami still a weak home favorite (2-13 vs. spread last 15), but it's hard to back Tennessee team with late pickup Kerry Collins (6 of 19, 2 more ints. last week) sharing controls with still-learning Vince Young (1 TDP, but two fumbles in S.D., both recovered by Vince). Both Jets and Chargers were able to use their offenses to grab early leads against still-shaky Tennessee defense. Titans much more unstable.
(05-MIAMI 24-Tenn. 10...M.19-11 M.38/192 T.25/92 T.19/37/2/142 M.14/30/1/130 M.1 T.1)
(05-MIAMI -5 24-10...SR: Miami 16-14)
Washington 23 - HOUSTON 13--At least stuttering Washington has some semblance of a defense and ground game, the two basics of football. Same can't be said of Texas, whose top two RBs last week were Ron Dayne, picked up after the last exhibition, and SamKon Gado, picked up after Game One. And Texas defense has given up 51 points through first 3 Qs of first two games. Washington, even with offense in transition, just a little more stable. (02-WASHINGTON -6' 26-10...SR: Washington 1-0)
MINNESOTA 19 - Chicago 13--Insiders in Minnesota impressed with just about all the moves of new HC Brad Childress, who is disciplining the Vikings into a rugged team more like the one he had as off. coord. while at U. of Wisconsin than like the finesse Eagles he had while working with Andy Reid in Philly. Exhibit A is the McKinnie-Hutchinson LT-LG combo. Exhibit B is Minny's new "Cover Two" defense featuring a physical front four and high-quality secondary. Bears' Grossman (4 TDP last week!) faces toughest test so far.
(05-CHI. 28-Minn. 3...16-16 C.30/95 M.19/80 M.26/49/2/203 C.16/25/1/97 C.2 M.0)
(05-MINN. 34-Chi. 10...M.22-13 C.33/154 M.18/149 M.27/40/0/247 C.14/23/0/97 M.0 C.0)
(05-CHICAGO -3 28-3, MINNESOTA -5 34-10...SR: Minnesota 48-40-2)
TAMPA BAY 16 - Carolina 15--Two contenders suddenly find themselves 0-2 and suffering from early-season OL injuries, so Bucs might add to their 17-9 "under" mark last 26 at home. Meanwhile, both offenses moving ball to a degree (Chris Simms 313 YP at Atlanta), but prone to mistakes (Simms 3 ints. second straight game). Carolina an excellent underdog (17-3 L3+Ys), but not so good when favored (13-22 same time frame), so uncomfortable laying points without knowing whether Steve Smith (hamstring) will be available.
(05-Car. 34-T. BAY 14...T.18-15 C.32/77 T.18/44 T.25/42/2/226 C.11/18/0/210 C.0 T.2)
(05-T. Bay 20-CAR. 10...T.17-14 T.36/114 C.20/82 C.21/33/1/194 T.20/27/0/133 T.0 C.0)
(05-Carolina -1 34-14, Tampa Bay +5' 20-10...SR: Carolina 6-5)
DETROIT 26 - Green Bay 10--In clash of rookie NFL head coaches, Rod Marinelli of Detroit boasts the most reliable platoon on the field with his defense (despite last week's result in Chicago). And keep in mind that Brett Favre had some of his worst days vs. Tampa Bay, where Marinelli was a long-time def. assistant. Now, in the twilight of Favre's career, when he has a pair of rookie Gs in front of him, Favre could endure another trying afternoon considering that Seattle's OL could not handle the Lions' def. front two weeks ago. Detroit 8-1 last 9 vs. spread as series host.
(05-DET. 17-G. Bay 3...D.18-13 D.31/102 G.17/46 G.27/44/2/170 D.15/28/0/152 D.0 G.1)
(05-G. BAY 16-Det. 13 (OT)...G.19-11 G.35/181 D.31/129 G.21/32/1/149 D.13/24/0/112 G.1 D.0)
(05-DETROIT -3 17-3, GREEN BAY -6' 16-13 (OT)...SR: Green 82-64-7)
Baltimore 20 - CLEVELAND 10--Combination of Cleveland's OL problems and Baltimore's rugged front seven points toward the "under." Four of last 5 in series "under," while Romeo Crennel 12-5-1 "under" as a HC. Ravens' offense not great (some say accumulation of injuries has cost Steve McNair a few mph off his "fastball"). But counterpart Charlie Frye (2 ints., 1 fumble last week in Cincy) still learning, and ground game has disappeared. Ray Lewis & Co. too much to overcome.
(05-BALT. 16-Cle. 3...B.16-12 B.33/150 C.18/70 B.23/31/1/201 C.16/30/1/116 B.0 C.2)
(05-CLE. 20-Balt. 16...12-12 B.32/129 C.23/54 C.22/38/2/178 B.15/36/2/138 C.1 B.1)
(05-BALTIMORE -6 16-3, CLEVELAND +3 20-16...SR: Baltimore 9-5)
OVER THE TOTAL ARIZONA 31 - St. Louis 30--"Over" is the first preference in this game of teams loaded with excellent receivers on indoor field with no wind factor. Both Rams (only one TD TY) and Cardinals (only 1 last week in Seattle) able to do much more in Warner vs. Bulger, mentor vs. pupil shootout. Ram defense improved enough under def. coord. Haslett to prefer taking points. Cards ""over" 20 of last 31 overall.
(05-St. Lou. 17-ARIZ. 12...A.18-16 S.22/108 A.16/82 A.29/42/1/297 S.18/29/1/189 S.0 A.1)
(05-Ariz. 38-ST. LOU. 28...A.27-19 A.26/94 S.12/6 S.33/43/0/347 A.27/39/0/278 A.1 S.2)
(05-St. Louis +1 17-12, Arizona +9 38-28...SR: St. Louis 30-23-2)
SEATTLE 21 - NY Giants 20--Seahawks were 8-2 vs. the spread at home in their Super Bowl year, one of the non-covers occurring in OT vs. N.Y., even though Jay Feely missed 3 FGs, albeit all tough chances. Seattle's noisy "12th Man" home crowd was a factor in 11 Giants' false-start penalties (!) on a day N.Y. led in yards 490 to 355. Seattle misses all-pro LG Steve Hutchinson, but should have former Super Bowl MVP WR Deion Branch active. But N.Y. defense healthier TY, and Eli's terrific variety of weapons was on display in last week's comeback at Philly.
(05-SEA. 24-Giants 21 (OT)...N.25-17 N.29/166 S.34/127 N.29/53/1/324 S.21/37/1/228 S.1 N.0)
(05-SEATTLE -4' 24-21 (OT)...SR: NY Giants 7-4)
Philadelphia 23 - SAN FRANCISCO 10--Huge QB experience edge (McNabb vs. A. Smith) that S.F. unlikely to overcome, given its early-season OL injuries (LG Larry Allen, LT Jonas Jennings; check status). And Philly unlikely to let up after blowing last week's lead vs. NYG. WR Donté Stallworth (11 for 222) appears to be the speed guy Andy Reid has been looking for. Eagles have the depth up front on defense to compensate for some early-season injuries (check status of DE Kearse). Even with CB Sheppard out, Philly secondary too tough for Smith & receivers to crack.
(05-PHIL. 42-S. Fran. 3...P.30-8 P.30/140 S.17/58 P.33/39/0/443 S.13/27/3/84 P.1 S.0)
(05-PHILADELPHIA -13 42-3...SR: San Francisco 17-8-1)
*NEW ENGLAND 20 - Denver 19--Mike Shanahan and Broncs can't beat Indy in the playoffs. But Denver has played well vs. the Patriots, covering 4 of last 5 (with the only non-cover occurring when backup Danny Kanell was at QB). While Pats' Tom Brady adjusting to the departure of some key receivers, Broncos getting a boost as Javon Walker (5 recs. vs. K.C.) comes "on line." Brady spent time with his old throwing coach in the offseason, partly because he was haunted by that long interception he tossed to Champ Bailey in LY's playoffs. Has Jake Plummer (only 1 last week) ended his latest bout with turnovers? TV--NBC
(05-DEN. 28-N. Eng. 20...N.22-20 D.34/178 N.19/89 N.24/46/0/299 D.17/24/0/254 D.0 N.0)
(05-DEN. 27-N. Eng. 13...D.16-15 D.32/96 N.21/79 N.20/36/2/341 D.15/26/1/190 D.0 N.3)
(05-DENVER -3 28-20, DENVER -3 27-13 (AFC Playoffs)...SR: Denver 25-15)
MONDAY, SEPTEMBER 25
*Atlanta 31 - NEW ORLEANS 17--Return of Saints to New Orleans, re-opening of the Superdome, and debut of Reggie Bush-Drew Brees all in one for the Saints! Too bad long-time NFC southern rival Atlanta is 19-1 vs. the spread last 20 in The Big Easy! New defensive additions DE Abraham, NT G. Jackson, FS Crocker & SS Milloy have all worked out so well for the Atlanta defense, which is also due to get back big MLB Ed Hartwell (check status) soon. And too bad N.O. native Warrick Dunn is an active member of the community. And that rookie backup Jerious Norwood has speed to burn. Falcs (558 YR) run better; now better on defense. CABLE TV--ESPN
(05-Atl. 34-N. ORL. 31...N.32-21 N.32/211 A.33/160 N.22/33/1/245 A.11/23/1/106 A.0 N.1)
(05-ATL. 36-N. Orl. 17...N.22-19 A.32/127 N.24/125 A.13/25/1/279 N.27/46/0/207 A.0 N.1)
(05-Atlanta -5' 34-31, ATLANTA -10' 36-17...SR: Atlanta 44-30)
MONDAY NIGHT HISTORY
Atlanta and New Orleans on Monday Night
Atlanta is 1-10 straight-up and 4-7 vs. the pointspread on the road on Monday Night Football;
8-8 straight-up and 6-10 vs. the pointspread at home on Monday Night Football.
New Orleans is 0-6 straight-up and 1-5 vs. the pointspread at home on Monday Night Football;
7-8 straight-up and 6-9 vs. the pointspread on the road on Monday Night Football.
NFL KEY RELEASES
MIAMI by 21 over Tennessee
DETROIT by 16 over Green Bay
ATLANTA by 14 over New Orleans
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
OVER the total in the St. Louis-Arizona game
posted by phantom
Sept. 21 2006 3:10pm -
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The Red Sheet
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THE RED SHEET
SEPTEMBER 23, 2006 VOLUME 38, NUMBER 4
SOUTH CAROLINA 56 - Florida Atlantic 7 - (7:00 EDT) -- Line opened at South Carolina minus 30½, and is still minus 30½. Quite a suicide run for the Owls, who have yet to play in front of the home folks, with this one being their 4th consecutive road game. Thus far, the results have been a disaster, with 54-6, 45-0, & 48-8 losses. Enter the Gamecocks of Carolina, who are in need of a solid showing before taking on Auburn next week. A week ago, the 'Cocks barely got by Wofford, with a 290-165 RY disadvantage. That one, of course, was played with Carolina QB Mitchell sitting out a 1-game suspension (he returns here). SC has yet to put on the type of offensive display of which Spurrier is accustomed, and this provides the perfect opportunity. Have to see it near Atlantic's normal scoring deficit.
RATING: SOUTH CAROLINA 89
CALIFORNIA 40 - Arizona State 24 - (3:30) -- Line opened at California minus 7½, and is now minus 8.This one marks the 3rd home game for the Bears, who've won by near exact scores of 42-17 & 42-16 in their previous 2. Two weeks ago, we placed them in this same spot, with the result being that demolition of a Minnesota squad which has a 106-0 edge in its other 2
outings, albeit vs Kent & Temple. That Minny game saw the Bears with 31 FDs & 531 yds (16½ pt cover). Altho a 42-16 win over Portland St is hardly overwhelming, note that all of Cal's pts came in the 1st half last wk, with stellar RB Lynch averaging 18.7 ypr. Devils are formidable, but have just a 35-27 ppg edge in their last 8 lined games. Lay it.
RATING: CALIFORNIA 89
Kent State 24 - BOWLING GREEN 23 - (1:00) -- Line opened at Bowling Green minus 8½, and is now minus 7. Two years ago, when these 2 met on this field the spread was 20½, so nearly a 2-TD drop in the line. The Flashes were among the dregs a year ago, losing all 10 of their lined games, and winding up on a 9-game slide. Returning 18 starters from a 1-10 team
hardly seems a plus, but Kent's entire offensive philosophy has changed dramatically. In '05, the Flashes ranked dead last in the nation in rushing (46 ypg). Not so this time around, with a nice mixture of running & throwing the result. And BG is yet to cover. The dog is 8-1 against the pts in the MAC so far, & it's about time that we got in on it.
RATING: KENT STATE 88
KANSAS 27 - South Florida 13 - (7:00) -- Line opened at Kansas minus 3½, and is now minus 5½. Regrouping time for the Jayhawks, who went down in OT last Friday, thanks to a 5-0 turnover deficit, with QB Meier throwing 4 interceptions, 1 of which was taken back 84 yds, for a TD, in the 4th. When the smoke cleared, the Jays held advantages of 23-14 in FDs, 391-237 in yds, & 34:58-25:02 in time. But it wasn't to be. Now back home, where they are on a 10-4 spread run. As a matter of fact, the host has covered 10 of the last 12 games involving Kansas. The Bulls snapped a 5-game spread slide, with a draining affair of their own last wk, at Cent Fla, directly off a 1-pt home win over Fla-International.
RATING: KANSAS 88
NEVADA 30 - Northwestern 10 - (8:00 Friday - ESPN2) -- Line opened at Nevada minus 4½, and is now minus 7. As you can see, we've lost a total of 6spread pts, since the opening lines, with our non Superior Rated Plays. But that goes with the territory. As far as this contest is concerned, the main story, of course, is the dramatic drop in production of that Wildcat offense,
which finished the '05 season ranked 4th in the entire land in moving the ball. This season, vs the likes of Miami-Ohio, New Hampshire, & Eastern Michigan, they've averaged only 17 pts, failing to reach 200 yds, either running or passing. Reno was like a runner with the weights removed in rout of Colorado St, no reason not to dominate this.
RATING: NEVADA 88
Baltimore 26 - CLEVELAND 10 - (4:05) -- Line opened at Baltimore minus 6½, and is now minus 6. Until things change, we will continue to ride this meal ticket. The acquisition, in the off season, of Steve McNair has changed the dynamics of this Raven team about as dramatically, as any single player has done in the NFL, in ages - so far, at least. Sure, the nearly TD spot as a
division traveller, is always cause for concern, but see no letup for a hungry squad which drank from the Super Bowl cup just 6 yrs ago, but has just a single post-season win since, & is in off a 6-10 season. The Raven "D" is allowing just 3 ppg, as well as 151 yds per contest. Brownies beat 'em by 4 here last year, so Billick's outfit will be fully focused.
RATING: BALTIMORE 88
NEAR CHOICES (Rated 87): BYU, Ohio St, UCLA, Army, Utah -- NFL: Cincinnati, Detroit, New Orleans.
posted by phantom
Sept. 21 2006 3:12pm -
0 likes
Killer Sports
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MTi’s Side Play of the Week
4-Star Carolina -3 over TAMPA BAYâ€â€The Bucs are reeling and
the main reason is Chris Simms’ complete lack of passion and
urgency about the Bucs’ situation. After being completely demolished
by the Ravens in their opener, Simms shrugged and remarked, ““A loss
is a loss.“ Simms was actually pulled by Gruden after throwing three
interceptions, but his attitude is, “Oh well.â€
posted by phantom
Sept. 21 2006 3:13pm -
0 likes
Rocky's winner circle
Guaranteed BB- Balt
GOW- Calif
Dawg pound-NC st,Okl st, Ohio u,Tenn, Fla Int,East Mich
100% Super system- Stanford
System Gow-Sea
Total Gow-Over Boise
Gold pan willie 10*-Phl
7* Power play- Navy
Mr Platinum- Boise
Solid Gold- Neb
Underdog play- E Mich
Burglar Bob-Under Ala
Swami-New England
Nighthawk-Utah
K-lines kicks- Wyo
Sweetheart teasers
USC
Va Tech
Ohio st
Pro Sweetheart
Ariz
N.O.
Chi
posted by phantom
Sept. 21 2006 3:14pm -
0 likes
SUNSHINE FORECAST
New York Jets (+6) at Buffalo Bills
Power Rating Projection:
Buffalo Bills 20 New York Jets 13
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Buffalo Bills 13 New York Jets 7
Cincinnati Bengals (+3) at Pittsburgh Steelers
Power Rating Projection:
Pittsburgh Steelers 25 Cincinnati Bengals 23
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Pittsburgh Steelers 31 Cincinnati Bengals 29
Jacksonville Jaguars(+8½) at Indianapolis Colts
Power Rating Projection:
Indianapolis Colts 25 Jacksonville Jaguars 19
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Indianapolis Colts 27 Jacksonville Jaguars 20
Tennessee Titans (+10½) at Miami Dolphins
Power Rating Projection:
Miami Dolphins 24 Tennessee Titans 17
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Miami Dolphins 22 Tennessee Titans 15
Washington Redskins (-3½) at Houston Texans
Power Rating Projection:
Washington Redskins 26 Houston Texans 20
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Washington Redskins 31 Houston Texans 26
Chicago Bears (-3½) at Minnesota Vikings
Power Rating Projection:
Minnesota Vikings 19 Chicago Bears 16
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Minnesota Vikings 13 Chicago Bears 10
Carolina Panthers (-3) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Power Rating Projection:
Carolina Panthers 23 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 18
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Carolina Panthers 23 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 18
Historical trend: Take Carolina Panthers ( Domination by Carolina Panthers, 7-2, 77.8% )
Green Bay Packers (+6½) at Detroit Lions
Power Rating Projection:
Detroit Lions 21 Green Bay Packers 19
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Detroit Lions 21 Green Bay Packers 19
Angle: Scored 9 or Fewer Points in Consecutive Games
Go against Detroit Lions ( Playing at home, Opponent gave up more than 40 points combined in previous tw, 6-12, 33.3% )
Historical trend: Take Detroit Lions ( Domination at home by Detroit Lions, 7-1, 87.5% )
Historical trend: Take Detroit Lions ( Domination by home team, 13-3, 81.3% )
Baltimore Ravens (-6½) at Cleveland Browns
Power Rating Projection:
Baltimore Ravens 18 Cleveland Browns 15
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Baltimore Ravens 12 Cleveland Browns 9
St Louis Rams (+4½) at Arizona Cardinals
Power Rating Projection:
Arizona Cardinals 23 St Louis Rams 17
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Arizona Cardinals 21 St Louis Rams 15
New York Giants (+4) at Seattle Seahawks
Power Rating Projection:
Seattle Seahawks 25 New York Giants 17
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Seattle Seahawks 26 New York Giants 18
Philadelphia Eagles (-6) at San Francisco 49ers
Power Rating Projection:
San Francisco 49ers 22 Philadelphia Eagles 20
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
San Francisco 49ers 21 Philadelphia Eagles 20
Denver Broncos (+6½) at New England Patriots
Power Rating Projection:
Denver Broncos 21 New England Patriots 17
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Denver Broncos 16 New England Patriots 13
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Monday, September 25, 2006
Atlanta Falcons (-3) at New Orleans Saints
Power Rating Projection:
Atlanta Falcons 21 New Orleans Saints 15
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Atlanta Falcons 20 New Orleans Saints 3
Atlanta Falcons (1 star)
Angle: Allowed 9 or Fewer Points in Consecutive Games
Go with Atlanta Falcons ( Playing away from home, Opponent scored at least 40 points combined in previous two, 19-8, 70.4% )
posted by phantom
Sept. 21 2006 11:33pm -
0 likes
Sports Reporters
SUPER BEST BET
*MINNESOTA over CHICAGO by 17
It’s looking like the Vikings can and will just keep things simple this season, not allowing
themselves to be beaten by the kind of buffoonery that the Bears D thrives upon. Nitpickers
might point to them catching a break with vanquished opponents Washington
and Carolina playing with an injured Clinton Portis and an absent Steve Smith. But you
play the team that shows up, and only the people who believe in what happened last
week happening again will believe that Chicago has anything on offense that the improving
Vikings’ defense should be scared about. In the first meeting last season, Chicago got
two TDs on 1- and 3-yard drives...Daunte Culpepper boners! They’re gone. One of Brad
Childress’ first moves after being hired as new Minnesota head coach was to surround
himself with Lovie Smith’s aura. From Tampa Bay, he hired Mike Tomlin for Cover-2
knowledge. Then he plucked the guy who coached the Bears’ defensive line last season,
Kevin Dunbar. "In this particular division," Childress said, "right now it's all about the
Chicago Bears. What better way to beat that defense than to practice against it?" When
a guy is obviously targeting a September opponent in January, you have to consider him
as a wagon to hitch yourself to because he considers his team as an equal and is planning
for an edge to win not soon, not later, but now! MINNESOTA, 20-3.
RECOMMENDED
*MIAMI over TENNESSEE by 18
This is the kind of team that Daunte Culpepper has made his stats against since coming
into the NFL. When he plays against real defenses, he is a professional pick projector,
launching gifts, and sometimes dropping them on the ground in front of him, to all talented
and prepared opponents. But each Tennessee quarterback – Kerry Collins or Vince
Young (and you just can’t believe they are mentioned as a tandem on the same team!) -
- has Culpepper beat by a mile in the implosion category. Last season, the Titans OC
Norm Chow explained a bad Run-Pass Ratio as the result of falling behind frequently. So
far, nothing has changed. Jeff Fisher – good coach in a bad situation, really shouldn’t be
staying up late figuring out how to compete because he can get a job anywhere else if
either he or the owner allows his contract to expire after this season. One could direct a
lot of knocks Miami’s way with the 0-2 SU and ATS start, but they have the personnel to
cut into that record deficit rather convincingly unless Zach Thomas and Jason Taylor are
players formerly known as the Martz Brothers, who became instant converts when they saw
the light regarding the miracles of ball- and field position-security. Arizona QB Kurt Warner,
ex-Ram, brought up on wildness and still surrounded by it, is still a chalk-player’s worst
nightmare in a whack, pass-based system. His ex-protégée Marc Bulger is now being refined
as a more together St. Louis team re-molds around him. ARIZONA, 24-23.
RECOMMENDED
NY GIANTS over *SEATTLE by 5
Eli Manning and company found much success last year, but a sore spot from the season
remains the meltdown of their November visit to Seattle’s Qwest field. Despite gaining
490 total yards, Jay Feely, the Giants kicker, missed three field goals in the fourth
quarter and overtime to give away what could have been a tremendous road victory to
the then-surging Seahawks. Seattle is off a pair of stiffs, and looks to be weaker on the
offensive line as the loss of Steve Hutchinson and injuries to Walter Jones and others
have exposed Matt Hasselbeck to danger and limited the damage Shaun Alexander has
inflicted this season. There must also be some level of panic to induce management to
give up a first round pick and six years and $39 million to what amounts to a very good
possession receiver. Mr. Deion Branch may even suit up by this point, but it shouldn’t
BEST BET
*NEW ENGLAND over DENVER by 17
The prevailing opinion in these parts is that the zebras sacked the Pats in last year’s playoff
game in Denver. They simply could not catch a break from the powers that be and
therefore, the result of the game made it seem that Denver was more in control than in
reality. So there is major motivation in the New England locker room to even the score
and turn a new page in this rivalry. The Patriots have yet to find a groove early this season.
Tom Brady has admitted that the Deion Branch saga affected his own focus and performance
and that carried over to the rest of the team. Now that Branch has been jettisoned,
Tedy Bruschi is back, and Rodney Harrison gets stronger, expect the Pats to
improve. A big home revenge game is just what this team needs to re-instill the internal
fire. The Broncos put together a pitiful performance (tanking our Best Bet) at home
against the Damon Huard-led Chiefs, while Jake Plummer has tossed four picks to no
TDs thus far. The guy can’t get out of his own way lately and the Denver offense has been
nowhere since the offensive coordinator dude left for Houston. Secret to beating Denver?
Punt, pin ‘em back, and just wait, something good will happen for you. The Broncos’
offense wasn’t much last season, either, when an abundance of defensive and special
teams scores perched Denver’s power rating up to the summit of Pike’s Peak for 2006,
ready to plummet. NEW ENGLAND 27-10.
RECOMMENDED
*SAN FRANCISCO over PHILADELPHIA by 2
Philly has no mojo back, people. They beat nobody Houston, and just a targeted home
game against a division rival. Their pass-rush monster Kearse was carted off the field.
Donovan McNabb has ordinary receivers. Newly acquired receiver Dontae Stallworth? An
overration, as are most receivers not named Owens. These guys drop balls. Brian
Westbrook? Yawn. This overrated Eagles bunch heads to San Francisco to face a team
still in a rebuilding phase, but also a team that would like to at least compete for four
quarters against the opponent that in-your-faced them to their worst defeat of 2005,
when Terrell Owens was a crazed man leading the Philly charge against the 49ers organization
that “wrongedâ€
posted by phantom
Sept. 21 2006 11:33pm