NFL WEEK 2

LETS GET'M!!!!!!!!!!!!!! :shock:

posted by phantom

Sept. 14 2006 4:48pm

15 replies

0 likes

SUNSHINE FORECAST

Sunday, September 17, 2006

Oakland Raiders (+10Ã‚Â½) at Baltimore Ravens

Power Rating Projection:

Baltimore Ravens 25 Oakland Raiders 13

Statistical Projections

Too early for statistical projections

SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:

Baltimore Ravens 20 Oakland Raiders 9

Houston Texans (+13Ã‚Â½) at Indianapolis Colts

Power Rating Projection:

Indianapolis Colts 27 Houston Texans 9

Statistical Projections

Too early for statistical projections

SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:

Indianapolis Colts 20 Houston Texans 3

Angle: Favored by More Than 13 Points at Home

Go against Indianapolis Colts ( No additional conditions, 27-31-3, 46.6% )

Cleveland Browns (+10Ã‚Â½) at Cincinnati Bengals

Power Rating Projection:

Cincinnati Bengals 25 Cleveland Browns 17

Statistical Projections

Too early for statistical projections

SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:

Cincinnati Bengals 24 Cleveland Browns 17

Buffalo Bills (+6Ã‚Â½) at Miami Dolphins

Power Rating Projection:

Miami Dolphins 25 Buffalo Bills 19

Statistical Projections

Too early for statistical projections

SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:

Miami Dolphins 27 Buffalo Bills 22

Detroit Lions (+8Ã‚Â½) at Chicago Bears

Power Rating Projection:

Chicago Bears 20 Detroit Lions 10

Statistical Projections

Too early for statistical projections

SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:

Chicago Bears 15 Detroit Lions 6

Carolina Panthers (-2) at Minnesota Vikings

Power Rating Projection:

Carolina Panthers 20 Minnesota Vikings 19

Statistical Projections

Too early for statistical projections

SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:

Carolina Panthers 18 Minnesota Vikings 17

Angle: Short Preparation Week

Go with Minnesota Vikings ( Underdog (or PK) at home, Covered on the road in previous game, 12-8, 60.0% )

New York Giants (+3) at Philadelphia Eagles

Power Rating Projection:

New York Giants 22 Philadelphia Eagles 20

Statistical Projections

Too early for statistical projections

SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:

New York Giants 21 Philadelphia Eagles 20

Tampa Bay Buccaneers(+5Ã‚Â½) at Atlanta Falcons

Power Rating Projection:

Atlanta Falcons 22 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 16

Statistical Projections

Too early for statistical projections

SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:

Atlanta Falcons 17 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 12

Historical trend: Take Tampa Bay Buccaneers ( Domination by Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 7-2-1, 77.8% )

New Orleans Saints (-2) at Green Bay Packers

Power Rating Projection:

Green Bay Packers 25 New Orleans Saints 16

Statistical Projections

Too early for statistical projections

SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:

Green Bay Packers 25 New Orleans Saints 16

St Louis Rams (-3) at San Francisco 49ers

Power Rating Projection:

St Louis Rams 24 San Francisco 49ers 21

Statistical Projections

Too early for statistical projections

SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:

St Louis Rams 27 San Francisco 49ers 24

Arizona Cardinals (+7) at Seattle Seahawks

Power Rating Projection:

Seattle Seahawks 30 Arizona Cardinals 15

Statistical Projections

Too early for statistical projections

SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:

Seattle Seahawks 33 Arizona Cardinals 19

New England Patriots(-6) at New York Jets

Power Rating Projection:

New England Patriots 25 New York Jets 22

Statistical Projections

Too early for statistical projections

SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:

New England Patriots 31 New York Jets 28

Historical trend: Take New England Patriots ( Domination by visiting team, 12-3-1, 80.0% )

Historical trend: Take New England Patriots ( Domination on the road by New England Patriots, 7-1, 87.5% )

Tennessee Titans (+12) at San Diego Chargers

Power Rating Projection:

San Diego Chargers 31 Tennessee Titans 15

Statistical Projections

Too early for statistical projections

SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:

San Diego Chargers 37 Tennessee Titans 21

Kansas City Chiefs (+11) at Denver Broncos

Power Rating Projection:

Denver Broncos 24 Kansas City Chiefs 17

Statistical Projections

Too early for statistical projections

SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:

Denver Broncos 24 Kansas City Chiefs 16

Washington Redskins (+5Ã‚Â½) at Dallas Cowboys

Power Rating Projection:

Dallas Cowboys 21 Washington Redskins 18

Statistical Projections

Too early for statistical projections

SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:

Dallas Cowboys 17 Washington Redskins 14

Historical trend: Take Dallas Cowboys ( Domination by Dallas Cowboys, 13-3, 81.3% )

Historical trend: Take Washington Redskins ( Domination by underdog, 12-4, 75.0% )

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Monday, September 18, 2006

Pittsburgh Steelers (-1) at Jacksonville Jaguars

Power Rating Projection:

Pittsburgh Steelers 18 Jacksonville Jaguars 16

Statistical Projections

Too early for statistical projections

SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:

Pittsburgh Steelers 13 Jacksonville Jaguars 10

posted by phantom

Sept. 14 2006 5:05pm
0 likes

THE GOLD SHEET

SUNDAY, SEPTEMBER 17

BALTIMORE 23 - Oakland 10--Oakland went into its Monday nighter vs. San Diego with a 13-35 SU record the L3Ys, the same as the lowly 49ers! Don't anticipate a breakthrough on road (Balt. was 4-1 as home fav. LY) in Steve McNair's Raven home debut. Scouts report Raider receivers grumbling about QB Brooks' lack of accuracy (only 57%, then 56% L2Ys in New Orleans), with at least one wondering why Kerry Collins wasn't re-signed to help re-start the team in Art Shell Era, Part Two! If Raiders can't run vs. Ray Lewis & Co., DBs McAlister & Reed have big days.

(03-OAKLAND +6' 20-12...SR: Baltimore 3-1)

INDIANAPOLIS 27 - Houston 17--Yes, Houston's Kubiak debut was a failure last week vs. Philly. And, when Kubiak was with Denver, his teams did not fair well at Indy. But Colts are coming off very hard-hitting win at the Giants, and they have nemesis Jacksonville up next. Texans' addition of Eric Moulds helped WR A. Johnson (6 recs. each) vs. Philly's tough secondary. Indy's not quite as good, if only Houston can run a bit (Reggie Bush might have helped?).

(05-Indy 38-HOU. 20...I.30-13 I.34/205 H.33/133 I.21/27/1/232 H.6/9/1/6 I.1 H.1)

(05-INDY 31-Hou. 17...I.26-11 I.29/126 H.24/83 I.26/35/0/293 H.16/25/0/126 I.2 H.0)

(05-Indianapolis -14' 38-20, INDIANAPOLIS -17' 31-17...SR: Indianapolis 8-0)

UNDER THE TOTAL CINCINNATI 20 - Cleveland 13--Carson Palmer (only 13 of 19, 127 YP in opener) wasn't yet his former Pro Bowl self in opener at K.C. And Cincy is only 3-7 its last 10 as a home favorite despite all its firepower. Although Browns got "out-efforted" and surprised at home by Saints, there were positives with TE Kellen Winslow Jr. catching 8 ***** and WR B. Edwards 2 in their return from LY's severe injuries. Must note, however, Bengal defense recorded 7 sacks in opener; Cleveland gave up 5. Browns "Under" 4-15-1 their last 20 games!

(05-Cincy 27-CLE. 13...Ci.26-16 Ci.32/148 Cl.18/95 Cl.26/43/2/278 Ci.26/34/1/272 Ci.1 Cl.1)

(05-CINCY 23-Cle. 20...Ci.18-15 Ci.34/185 Cl.26/84 Cl.16/24/1/124 Ci.13/27/1/93 Ci.0 Cl.0)

(05-Cincinnati -3' 27-13, CINCINNATI -12' 23-20...SR: Cleveland 34-31)

MIAMI 23 - Buffalo 10--History has shown it's not losing an opener that is the killer in the NFL, it's dropping the first two and then fighting uphill all season. With that thought in mind, Miami much more likely to bounce back than Buffalo, which managed only one TD on offense at N.E., with a costly, late safety taken by QB Losman giving Pats the winning points. Dolphins should play much better this week at home in the DL and 2ndary after extra prep under the whip of HC Saban. Edge to Daunte over J.P.

(05-BUF. 20-Miami 14...B.21-16 M.20/113 B.36/99 M.21/33/3/210 B.20/26/0/137 B.1 M.2)

(05-MIAMI 24-Buf. 23...M.26-16 B.33/92 M.22/73 M.34/65/1/361 B.14/27/1/202 M.1 B.2)

(05-BUFFALO -3 20-14, MIAMI -5 24-23...SR: Miami 50-33-1)

CHICAGO 20 - Detroit 6--One point of view, for sure, is "under," as Bears held 7 of 8 reg.-season opponents LY to single digits, with only volatile Cincy (and later Carolina in the playoffs) able to break through. And series with Lions has gone "under" 8 of last 10 meetings. Six-point output vs. Seattle in opener doesn't say much for Mike Martz' developing Detroit offense, while Chicago ran and passed well last week with QB Grossman, RBs T. Jones & Benson, WR Muhammad, and TE Clark all contributing.

(05-CHI. 38-Det. 6...C.18-14 C.36/188 D.18/29 D.21/43/5/205 C.15/22/0/149 C.0 D.0)

(05-Chi. 19-DET. 13 (OT)...D.17-14 C.29/115 D.29/93 C.17/31/0/218 D.23/35/1/185 C.1 D.0)

(05-CHICAGO +1' 38-6, Chicago +3 19-13 (OT)...SR: Chicago 85-62-5)

Carolina 24 - MINNESOTA 10--With Pat Williams imported from Buffalo to join Kevin Williams in the middle of the Minnesota DL, Carolina will find the going difficult up front, so Panthers will have count more on QB Delhomme and their passing game. But with Viking offense lacking much dynamism, envision Carolina's aggressive defense tightening the noose on 38-year-old QB Brad Johnson, who is no Mike Vick, that's for sure. Official home debut for new Minny HC Brad Childress, but he'll find the going easier in Metrodome once NFC North foes visit.

(05-CAR. 38-Minn. 13...C.27-14 C.39/111 M.18/82 C.21/31/0/341 M.16/32/0/171 C.0 M.0)

(05-CAROLINA -7' 38-13...SR: EVEN 3-3)

NY Giants 20 - PHILADELPHIA 19--Donovan McNabb missed both of LY's meetings due to injury. But even with McNabb (314 YP in opener at Houston) back, prefer to be "taking." Philly's newly-acquired speed wideout DontÃƒÂ© Stallworth showed his value (6 for 141 and a TD) vs. Texans. But even in their hard-fought loss to Indy Sunday night, Giants demonstrated terrific balance throughout their offense and a healthier, improved defense.

(05-NYG 27-Phil. 17...P.20-17 N.29/115 P.30/106 P.18/39/1/298 N.17/26/0/200 N.0 P.0)

(05-Nyg 26-PHIL. 23 (OT)...N.28-17 P.25/175 N.40/138 N.28/44/3/299 P.14/32/0/162 N.0 P.1)

(05-NY GIANTS -7 27-17, NY Giants -9 26-23 (OT)...SR: NY Giants 77-65-2)

Tampa Bay 26 - ATLANTA 20--Because of their speedy defense, the Bucs have had some success vs. Michael Vick, including a pair of 3-point wins LY, with Cadillac Williams rushing 50 times for 266 yards. And now the T.B. imperative to win has grown with last week's loss. Atlanta defense successfully stuffed the run last week at Carolina (65 yards). And Falcs offense now boasts more speed (WR Ashley Lelie, rookie RB Jerious Norwood) to help Vick burn defenses designed to contain him. But the up and down nature of NFL greatly favors underdog Bucs in this one.

(05-T. Bay 30-ATL. 27...A.26-15 A.36/150 T.27/140 A.21/38/0/293 T.11/19/1/118 T.0 A.2)

(05-T. BAY 27-Atl. 24 (OT)...T.30-19 T.37/174 A.36/154 T.29/42/2/270 A.16/26/0/127 T.1 A.1)

(05-Tampa Bay +6 30-27, TAMPA BAY -3 27-24 (OT)...SR: Tampa Bay 15-10)

GREEN BAY 23 - New Orleans 17--Packers suffered their first shutout in 234 games last week, while Saints got at least a mini-boost from Reggie Bush (61 YR, 58 receiving) and Drew Brees (17 of 31) in their upset at Cleveland. Lost in the depression of G.B.'s scoreless performance was the steady 110-yard game provided by Ahman Green returning from injury. N.O. is not used to being a near pick 'em on the road; Saints' defense is not the Bears!

(05-G. BAY 52-N. Orl. 3...G.21-14 N.26/95 G.28/94 G.20/28/0/215 N.14/35/3/159 G.0 N.2)

(05-GREEN BAY -3 52-3...SR: Green Bay 14-5)

SAN FRANCISCO 26 - St. Louis 23--Niners were happy to take advantage of the TO-prone (-10), pass-happy, poor-STs Rams of 2005. And new HC Scott Linehan is promising more discipline and ball-control TY. That approach showed through in 5-takeway victory over Denver in opener. But young S.F. appears to be a much-improved team in 2006 now that Frank Gore (87 YR, 6-83 receiving in opener) is the starting RB, rookie Vernon Davis (5 recs.) the TE, and Alex Smith (1 TD, no ints. in opener) is more confident and assertive.

(05-S. FRN. 28-St. Lou. 25...St.26-12 St.26/89 Sf.21/34 St.34/56/1/316 Sf.13/18/0/183 Sf.2 St.0)

(05-S. Frn. 24-ST. LOU. 20...St.20-15 Sf.29/217 St.21/44 St.33/41/2/345 Sf.12/16/0/104 Sf.0 St.0)

(05-SAN FRANCISCO +6' 28-25, San Francisco +9' 24-20...SR: St. Louis 58-53-2)

SEATTLE 34 - Arizona 17--Seattle was THE home team LY, going 10-0 SU and 8-2 vs. the spread on its way to the Super Bowl. Moreover, the Arizona defense could not handle the Seahawk ground game (371 YR) in their two meetings. Although the Cardinal defense has improved to a degree, so has that of Seattle, which now has a healthier secondary and a few more pass rushers (especially rookie DE Tapp) to further bolster LY's quick, developing front seven. Arizona's OL still problematic; QB Warner often "deteriorates" when he is "speeded up."

(05-SEA. 37-Ariz. 12...S.29-15 S.37/163 A.21/90 S.21/32/0/284 A.18/36/1/176 S.0 A.1)

(05-Sea. 33-ARIZ. 19...A.23-22 S.33/208 A.20/71 A.29/48/3/307 S.13/20/0/158 S.0 A.1)

(05-SEATTLE -6 37-12, Seattle -4 33-19...SR: EVEN 7-7)

New England 24 - NY JETS 13--Teacher vs. pupil, as Jets new HC Eric Mangini was first hired by Bill Belichick as a ball boy and "go-fer" in Cleveland and then brought along in the assistant coaching ranks, picking up three SB rings with the Pats. But N.E. is far better set at QB, OL, and defense for us to consider taking a "flyer" on home dog N.Y. in this one, especially in an important AFC East divisional game. Don't expect Belichick to ease up on a friend and former loyal assistant until the Pats have this one under control.

(05-N. ENG. 16-Jets 3...Ne.24-12 Ne.35/146 Ny.16/41 Ne.27/37/0/251 Ny.15/37/1/123 Ne.0 Ny.0)

(05-N. Eng. 31-JETS 21...Ne.26-10 Ne.50/151 Ny.10/40 Ne.19/30/1/170 Ny.14/26/1/131 Ne.0 Ny.2)

(05-NEW ENGLAND -10 16-3, New England -6' 31-21...SR: NY Jets 47-44-1)

SAN DIEGO 27 - Tennessee 12--This could be the perfect home starting debut for Philip Rivers, especially if S.D. loses its Monday night opener at Oakland. The work-in-progress Tennessee defense figures to have its hands full just trying to keep LaDainian Tomlinson and underrated tag-team partner Michael Turner from going wild, which should allow the quick-learning Rivers to find TEs Gates & Manumaleuna for play-action gainers. Meanwhile, the Tennessee OL and iffy QBing appear to be no match for the hard-charging S.D. front seven, which led the league in rush defense LY and is determined to generate more takeaways TY.

(04-SAN DIEGO +3 38-17...SR: San Diego 20-16-1)

DENVER 27 - Kansas City 16--In this battle of perennial NFC West contenders, Denver has won and covered the last 5 at home, even with the likes of Priest Holmes and Larry Johnson in the K.C. backfield. Mike Shanahan's offense (32 ppg) has been relentless in outscoring the Chiefs in those 5; the speedy defense has been just good enough. And K.C. QB Green KO'd by a concussion last week. Eight of the last nine in the series went "over." Count on Shanahan hammering Jake Plummer (3 ints., 1 fumble) back into shape (to face Damon Huard?).

(05-DENVER 30-K. City 10...D.24-18 D.37/221 K.22/74 K.23/44/0/211 D.13/18/0/137 D.0 K.1)

(05-K. CITY 31-Denver 27...K.24-19 K.37/168 D.29/131 D.18/29/2/257 K.16/23/2/253 K.1 D.0)

(05-DENVER -3 30-10, KANSAS CITY +1 31-27...SR: Kansas City 51-41)

*DALLAS 17 - Washington 16--Terrell Owens (6 for 80 last week) making his home debut before fans he has disrespected in the past, while Washington players and coaches probably still enjoying the 14-13 win they "stole" during their last visit to Dallas a year ago, when Mark Brunell hit Santana Moss with sudden 39 and 70-yard TD strikes in the last 4 minutes! Cowboys' had covered 13 of previous 14 in series! And Redskins' Clinton Portis (shoulder; check status) has an excellent chance to play. Last 3 meetings in Texas "under;" Gibbs 13-5 "under" on road since his return. TV--NBC

(05-Wash. 14-DAL. 13...14-14 W.25/104 D.29/90 D.21/36/0/261 W.20/34/1/242 W.1 D.0)

(05-WASH. 35-Dal. 7...W.19-13 W.40/171 D.24/109 W.12/20/0/163 D.16/29/3/107 W.1 D.1)

(05-Washington +5' 14-13, WASHINGTON -1' 35-7...SR: Dallas 54-36-2)

MONDAY, SEPTEMBER 18

*Pittsburgh 17 - JACKSONVILLE 16--Steelers were the road team LY, winning more games (10; including the Super Bowl) away from home than any team in NFL history. Ben Roethlisberger has a chance to return from his recent appendectomy (check status). But even if it's Charlie Batch (3 TDP in opener; 3-0 as starter L2Ys), will trust him, Willie Parker, and penetrating Steeler defense. LY, Tommie Maddox was subbing for Big Ben at QB, and Maddox first fumbled in FG range in OT, then later tossed an int. TD that gave Jags the win! TV--ESPN

(05-Jack. 23-PITT 17 (OT)...J.17-16 J.35/93 P.30/73 J.19/35/1/153 P.11/28/3/145 J.0 P.1)

(05-Jacksonville +3 23-17 (OT)...SR: Jacksonville 9-8)

MONDAY NIGHT HISTORY

Pittsburgh and Jacksonville on Monday Night

Pittsburgh is 13-16 straight-up and 15-13-1 vs. the pointspread on the road on Monday Night Football;

20-5 straight-up and 18-7 vs. the pointspread at home on Monday Night Football.

Jacksonville is 4-1 straight-up and 3-2 vs. the pointspread at home on Monday Night Football;

1-2 straight-up and 1-2 vs. the pointspread on the road on Monday Night Football..

posted by phantom

Sept. 14 2006 5:05pm
0 likes

The Sports Reporter (NFL)

SUNDAY, SEPTEMBER 17

*BALTIMORE over OAKLAND by 13

The Raiders have a serious intangible disadvantage. Their head coach, plucked from a cave

because nobody else with qualifications really wants to work under the Al Davis circus tent,

has a short week to prepare for a game that starts at 10 am, Raider time. If Oakland had a

serious offensive line, a serious running back and a serious quarterback to put out there

against the RavensÃ¢â‚¬â„¢ defense, they might look good. But they donÃ¢â‚¬â„¢t. Baltimore DB Ed Reed is

writing a Thank You card to Aaron Brooks in advance, for the warm and thoughtful gifts about

to come his way after his front-seven buddies pressure the Oakland quarterback into doing

bad things. The newest member of the Baltimore DL Ã¢â‚¬â€œ Trevor Pryce Ã¢â‚¬â€œ wreaked havoc against

Oakland twice a season for nine years with Denver and has landed in a good spot to continue

the abuse, perhaps working against LT Robert Gallery as Gallery is still making a switch

from right side to left. Opposing DCs are brothers Rob and Rex Ryan, begotten from Buddy,

so both offenses ride in the back seat this afternoon. BALTIMORE, 20-7.

RECOMMENDED

*INDIANAPOLIS over HOUSTON by 6

Sorry, not sold on the Colts for 2006. Rack up all the passing

yards you want, Peytunia. Eventually, during the course of a game, your arms and legs

get tired, the clock stops, the production wanes, and winning becomes a much bigger

struggle than it has been lately as your defense sees way too much playing time. The

Houston defense was embarrassed by IndyÃ¢â‚¬â„¢s offense in the recent past because the

presence of Edgerrin James commanded attention. It was either Edge moving chains

mercilessly, or receivers making plays when the attention was devoted to Edge. The

Houston defense is now healthier than it was at any time a year ago, and two schnooks

are attempting to pass themselves off as the Edge in IndyÃ¢â‚¬â„¢s backfield. No way, Jose!

Texans move up a notch in Game 2 for the new head coach, against a team they know

pretty well, unlike the Philly invaders from last week. INDIANAPOLIS, 23-17.

*CINCINNATI over CLEVELAND by 14

The Bengals easily dispatched the Chiefs in Week 1, but did not roll up the points despite

their typical +2 Turnover Margin and a hurry-up offense. Here, against Charlie Frye, they have

a better chance to make a turnover-induced margin. Can Cleveland put a game plan together

to hang with a good offensive team? Last seasonÃ¢â‚¬â„¢s 13-6 Dilfer-led loss at Indianapolis is

proof that Romeo Crennel can do that. But if Frye, in an attempt to accelerate his development,

is asked to do something and fails miserably, and the Browns are forced to play from

two scores down, then the dam breaks! If Cleveland keeps shooting themselves in the foot

with costly penalties and/or giveways, then itÃ¢â‚¬â„¢s a laugher. Holes in the BrownsÃ¢â‚¬â„¢ defense are

being filled by creaky veterans like Willie McGinest and Ted Washington. Dynamic young CB

Leigh Bodden will have his hands full facing BengalsÃ¢â‚¬â„¢ WR Chad Johnson. CINCINNATI 31-17.

RECOMMENDED

*MIAMI over BUFFALO by 15

Former Buffalo head man Mike Mularkey was essentially forced to resign last winter after

the Buffalo personnel revolted against him. Not only does he have personal interest in

showing up his former players and the management that ousted him, but he has the

good fortune of having three extra days to prepare (coming off ThursdayÃ¢â‚¬â„¢s game in

Pittsburgh) as well as a better quarterback to work with than with his former team. OlÃ¢â‚¬â„¢

Mike may have something special up his sleeve saved just for his old pals. The solid

Dolphins pass rush wonÃ¢â‚¬â„¢t give J.P. Lose-man the luxury of sitting in the pocket too long

and he hasnÃ¢â‚¬â„¢t done much even when he has. Miami finished the season nicely and

should carry the momentum over into Year Two of the Saban regime, beginning with this

home opener. BuffaloÃ¢â‚¬â„¢s offense stalled after halftime last week once the Patriots coaching

staff had a chance to adjust, and Mularkey and Saban will be able to do the same.

MIAMI, 24-9.

**BEST BET TOTAL**

UNDER 32.5

*CHICAGO over DETROIT by 10

As in the point belabored last week, the Seahawks contained the LionsÃ¢â‚¬â„¢ offense led by

new Detroit QB Jon Kitna, partly because SeahawksÃ¢â‚¬â„¢ head coach Mike Holmgren knew

that Kitna was a bum. Holmgren is an offensive guy. Lovie Smith, Chicago head coach,

is an ex-DC who now oversees the best defensive unit in the NFL. Now itÃ¢â‚¬â„¢s his turn to

make LionsÃ¢â‚¬â„¢ new OC Mike Martz eat his words regarding DetroitÃ¢â‚¬â„¢s use of this 10-year QB

with no real appeal. The Bears just continue to make margins without impressive offensive

games. After drubbing the Slackers last week, ChicagoÃ¢â‚¬â„¢s guy behind center (not really

a quarterback, but he plays one on TV), said "We were able to move the ball up and

down the field, but I'd still like to finish up some of those drives. That's going to be key

in the coming weeks, because eventually the other team will score." Wrong, Rex

Grossman. You play for the Chicago Bears. The other team will not score unless you turn

it over! Lions wonÃ¢â‚¬â„¢t run well, Lions wonÃ¢â‚¬â„¢t pass well, Lions must pray for a special teams

play against a good special teams opponent. CHICAGO, 10-0.

*MINNESOTA over CAROLINA by 2

CarolinaÃ¢â‚¬â„¢s defensive quickness can be gradually minimized by the VikingsÃ¢â‚¬â„¢ offensive line as

long as MinnesotaÃ¢â‚¬â„¢s primary ball-carrier Ã¢â‚¬â€œ probably Chester Taylor Ã¢â‚¬â€œ hangs onto the football.

The Vikings will be all about simplicity, not a bad thing in the NFL when your O-Line is of high

quality, your quarterback is a 14-year veteran who knows his role, and the RBs and WRs

hang onto the ball in safe-play mode. VikingsÃ¢â‚¬â„¢ first-year head coach Brad Childress has seen

the tape of last seasonÃ¢â‚¬â„¢s meeting, when VikingsÃ¢â‚¬â„¢ DB Fred Smoot was left on his own to guard

PanthersÃ¢â‚¬â„¢ go-to receiver Steve Smith, after Smoot had trash-talked Smith during the week.

Smith left skid marks and stat burns all over Smoot, in a situation that the old coaching staff

should never have allowed to happen. Part of turning a team around is cleaning up messes,

which power football, clock control and smarter defensive tactics can successfully address.

Jake the Overration Delhomme enjoys this match-up a lot less than last seasonÃ¢â‚¬â„¢s. MINNESOTA,

21-19.

*PHILADELPHIA over NY GIANTS by 4

Eli ManningÃ¢â‚¬â„¢s production tapered severely in the second half of 2005 and weÃ¢â‚¬â„¢ll have to keep

that in mind before making any immediate assumptions about his first performance in 2006

against a division opponent that knows him very well. However, he is likely to get better and

he has better overall weapons than the ones in Donovan McNabbÃ¢â‚¬â„¢s huddle. Jim JohnsonÃ¢â‚¬â„¢s

Philly defense could be an exposure waiting to happen, one week after catching a sub-par

offensive line in Houston, which was attempting to block for sub-par running backs and protect

a sub-par passer theyÃ¢â‚¬â„¢ve never protected. But Eli is still Mr. Suspect, and the Eagles did

improve their pass rush and their defense is much healthier now than at any point last year,

operating in a long-established system that stiffens inside the 20. While Brian Westbrook is

still healthy (it wonÃ¢â‚¬â„¢t last much longer), there are a good number of wrinkles that can be

explored in the Philly offense. After dominating this series for two years, the Eagles lost both

meetings in 2005. PHILADELPHIA 26-22.

*ATLANTA over TAMPA BAY by 3

Our Zone Blitz, 2006 bullet-pointed 10 Things to Hate about Tampa Bay for 2006. One game

does not a correct seasonal forecast make, but it was nice to see a 4-Star, Major Wageragainst

lose by the score of 27-0, which is really what SHOULD happen against a good

defense when Chris (Ugh!) Simms is quarterbacking GrudenÃ¢â‚¬â„¢s deluded bunch that made

basically ZERO changes from last season to now. Jury is still out on whether or not Atlanta

is a good defense one week after limiting the Carolina Panthers to 6 points, because we do

NOT respect the Carolina PanthersÃ¢â‚¬â„¢ offense, either. The Panthers are a team that recovered

an astronomical 78% of opposing fumbles against them last season, when they, like Tampa

Bay, played one of the most fortunately-timed, garbage schedules you will ever see. Yet, if

you want to, you have the green light to take the olÃ¢â‚¬â„¢ Ã¢â‚¬Å“never as good as they look, never as

bad as they lookÃ¢â‚¬

posted by phantom

Sept. 14 2006 5:06pm
0 likes

Winning Points (NFL)

****BEST BET****

*Baltimore over Oakland by 25

This is it for Brian Billick and his aging Ravens squad. ItÃ¢â‚¬â„¢s a do-or-die season

with BillickÃ¢â‚¬â„¢s job on the line. ThereÃ¢â‚¬â„¢s going to be a sense of urgency for

Baltimore in its home opener.We canÃ¢â‚¬â„¢t see Baltimore blowing this home

game against a bad Oakland team traveling to the East Coast on a short

week having played Monday night against hard-hitting San Diego. Baltimore

is 19-6 SU its last 25 home games, 15-9-1 ATS.The Raiders are 4-22 SU their

past 26 away contests, 7-18-1 ATS. ItÃ¢â‚¬â„¢s the second consecutive physical

defense the Raiders are going up against.They donÃ¢â‚¬â„¢t have the consistency

or health in their offensive line to match up against Terrell Suggs,Ray Lewis

and Co. Center Jake Grove is ailing and Robert Gallery and Langston Walker

are struggling on OaklandÃ¢â‚¬â„¢s offensive line.We know about Aaron BrooksÃ¢â‚¬â„¢

inconsistencies. Chances are he could complete more passes to Ravens

safety Ed Reed than Randy Moss. Speaking of Moss, heÃ¢â‚¬â„¢s hurt by the RaidersÃ¢â‚¬â„¢

lack of receiving threats with Doug Gabriel traded, Jerry Porter in Art

ShellÃ¢â‚¬â„¢s doghouse, Ronald Curry not being an every down player and Alvis

Whitted turning 32.We could see Moss pouting and frustrated. Brooks is

just too unstable, especially under pressure, to beat an outstanding defense

on the road. He figures to be under constant pressure here.The Ravens are

improved offensively with Steve McNair replacing the inept Kyle Boller

behind center.The Ravens are deeper at running back than Oakland with

Jamal Lewis, Musa Smith and Mike Anderson, all of whom could start for

other teams. McNair also has better receiving targets with Derrick Mason,

Mark Clayton and tight end Todd Heap. BALTIMORE 31-6.

***BEST BET****

Tampa Bay over *Atlanta by 10

To those concerned about the Buccaneers being shut out at home by a

tough Baltimore defense last Sunday, hereÃ¢â‚¬â„¢s something to ease the pain:The

last time the Buccaneers lost their home opener, four years ago against

New Orleans, they ended up winning the Super Bowl.WeÃ¢â‚¬â„¢re not suggesting

the Bucs are a Super Bowl team, but they did win 11 games last year. So itÃ¢â‚¬â„¢s

foolish to write them off so fast.Two of Tampa BayÃ¢â‚¬â„¢s victories came against

the Falcons. The Bucs still have an outstanding defense. It remains quick

enough to cause problems for Michael Vick, who has had some of his worse

games against Tampa Bay.Vick is 2-5 his last seven against the Bucs.Tampa

Bay has sacked Vick 16 times the past four games.The Bucs have the fast

interior seven to shadow Vick and frustrate him, while their disciplined secondary

execute a Cover 2 aimed at making Vick throw accurate passes.This

almost becomes a must-win for the Bucs, who would be in a hole if they

dropped to 0-2 in the tough NFC South Division. AtlantaÃ¢â‚¬â„¢s improved pass

rush looked good last week. But the Panthers were missing Steve Smith.The

Falcons also had two of their best pass rushers suffer injuries, Patrick

Kerneyand John Abraham against Carolina.The Falcons have been an inconsistent,

up-and-down team under Jim Mora Jr.They are 2-6 ATS at home off

an ATS win the week before.They also are 1-4 ATS the week after playing

the Panthers and 2-7 ATS following a SU win when they have revenge the

next week. The Bucs meanwhile are 8-3 SU when Cadillac Williams has

been healthy. Look for a much better effort from the Bucs this week and for

the Falcons to revert to their inconsistent ways.TAMPA BAY 24-14.

**PREFERRED**

*Denver over Kansas City by 16

Not having left tackle Willie Roaf and fullback Tony Richardson, an excellent

blocker, is going to hurt the Chiefs here.The Broncos had the No. 2 run

defense last year.They can contain Larry Johnson, especially if backup QB

Damon Huard starts instead of Trent Green (check status).The Chiefs donÃ¢â‚¬â„¢t

have a strong enough passing attack anymore to compensate for defenses

keying on Johnson. On the other side of the ball, DenverÃ¢â‚¬â„¢s balanced attack

can move the chains either way. The ChiefsÃ¢â‚¬â„¢ defensive front seven is not

physical, and their secondary finished third-from-the-bottom last season in

passing yards. Kansas CityÃ¢â‚¬â„¢s defense might look OK on paper, but injuries

have robbed linebacker Kendrell Bell of his skills and cornerback Ty Law is

on the downside of his great career.To compensate, the Chiefs are playing

more Cover 2 defense.This cuts down on surrendering big-plays, but opens

up holes. Jake Plummer is experienced enough to take advantage, especially

with an upgraded receiving corps.Trends and history favor Denver.

The Broncos are 8-4 ATS laying points.TheyÃ¢â‚¬â„¢ve defeated and covered their

past five times at home against Kansas City.When the Chiefs have problems

moving the ball, theyÃ¢â‚¬â„¢re in big trouble.ThatÃ¢â‚¬â„¢s the case here. DENVER 30-14.

*Preferred*

Detroit over *Chicago by 3

One of the lowest points for the Lions in a season filled with low points last

year was being humiliated, 38-6, by the Bears in Chicago.This game marks

a turning point for Detroit to see just how strong they are under the new

regime of Rod Marinelli, who has stressed toughness to the point of flying

his team to Oakland for a preseason matchup the day of the game. The

Lions already look more fundamentally sound.They are better on both sides

of the ball. The offense can do more things with Mike Martz calling the

shots. The team is more cohesive and has more confidence in Jon Kitna

than Joey Harrington.The Lions have good linebackers.All can run.The pass

rush is improved, too, with the addition of rookie Ernie Sims. The Bears

have a Super Bowl caliber defense, but are not a Super Bowl team. ItÃ¢â‚¬â„¢s a risk

to lay points with Rex Grossman. This would be just his ninth start. HeÃ¢â‚¬â„¢s

done nothing to suggest heÃ¢â‚¬â„¢s a future star. ItÃ¢â‚¬â„¢s not just Grossman. Chicago

has controversy at running back with coaches and management split

between Thomas Jones and Cedric Benson. ChicagoÃ¢â‚¬â„¢s wideouts are below

average and its tight ends nearly invisible. Prior to last seasonÃ¢â‚¬â„¢s disaster, the

Lions had covered five of their last six in Chicago. DETROIT 17-14.

Close Calls

*Indianapolis over Houston by 11

In preseason, the Texans set club records for wins, points scored, fewest

points allowed and rushing defense. Unfortunately this is the real thing.

While the Texans should be improved under first-year coach Gary Kubiak,

they still lack the vertical passing game to compete with the Colts if they

fall behind.A lot is made of Edgerrin James leaving Indy. But the Texans are

going with unproven running backs.They did nothing in Week 1. It remains

to be seen how much they are able to stem the ColtsÃ¢â‚¬â„¢ fierce pass rush,

which is better inside their dome stadium. Indy never has lost to Houston

in eight meetings. INDIANAPOLIS 28-17.

*Cincinnati over Cleveland by 8

The Bengals have reduced firepower with third-down back Chris Perry out

and T.J. Houshmandzadeh (check status) sitting out last week with a heel

injury. But Carson Palmer looks comfortable and has reliable Rudi Johnson,

who hammered the BrownsÃ¢â‚¬â„¢ 30th-ranked run defense last year for 497

yards rushing and four touchdowns. Browns second-year QB Charlie Frye

has more weapons than his rookie year.The Browns could keep this close

in this intense in-state division rivalry, but need a strong rushing effort from

Reuben Droughns, something he didnÃ¢â‚¬â„¢t provide opening week. CINCINNATI

25-17.

*Miami over Buffalo by 6

The Dolphins should find the Bills much easier to solve than the Steelers,

especially given extra time having played last Thursday. Counting preseason,

this marks BuffaloÃ¢â‚¬â„¢s third consecutive road game.This also is the first

time in seven years the Bills hadnÃ¢â‚¬â„¢t opened at home. So the travel may be

getting to them. Playing a September game in south Florida humidity never

is fun for a road team either. But can Daunte Culpepper be trusted? He still

looks rusty coming back from a serious knee injury. He threw no TDÃ¢â‚¬â„¢s during

preseason and then two costly interceptions in Week 1 looking more

like Jay Fiedler than Dan Marino. DOLPHINS 23-17.

Carolina over *Minnesota by 1

MinnyÃ¢â‚¬â„¢s defensive front seven is much better at home in the loud

Metrodome. This also is an off-surface for the Panthers, who are a grass

team.The Panthers beat the Lions and Saints, two inferior carpet teams, on

the road last season by a combined five points. Steve Smith torched the

Vikings for 201 yards when Carolina defeated the Vikings, 38-13, last year.

But Smith is ailing with hamstring problems and may sit out another week.

So while the Panthers clearly are the superior team, this could prove to be

a difficult matchup. The Vikings have become more physical under new

coach Brad Childress and wonÃ¢â‚¬â„¢t be afraid to slug it out. CAROLINA 20-19.

*Philadelphia over New York Giants by 6

After winning seven of the past eight in the series, the Eagles were swept

by the Giants last year. It was the first time since 2000 New York had won

the season series against Philadelphia. Unlike last year when they met the

Giants, the Eagles are healthy this time around.The Giants have an excellent

pass rush, but their secondary is suspect. Donovan McNabb has the

foot speed to escape New YorkÃ¢â‚¬â„¢s pressure. The Giants are off a marquee

Sunday night game against the Colts and have a revenge game next week

against NFC champion Seattle. Now you know why the Giants have the

toughest schedule in the NFC. PHILADELPHIA 26-20.

*Green Bay over New Orleans by 3

DonÃ¢â‚¬â„¢t look for the Packers to beat the Saints by 49 points like last season.

Even with Brett Favre, the Packers are extremely young with 14 first-year

players, including two starting rookie guards.The Saints have the pass rushers

to take advantage. Favre doesnÃ¢â‚¬â„¢t trust his new guards yet Ã¢â‚¬â€œ if ever.The

Saints have their own issues, though. Counting preseason, this is their third

away game. Their linebackers are terrible. Ahman Green could return to

prominence in this matchup. Drew Brees has yet to look impressive for the

Saints. He lacks good wide receivers with Donte Stallworth gone and Joe

Horn on the downside of his career. GREEN BAY 29-26.

St. Louis over *San Francisco by 6

The 49ers had the worst defense last year and it looks just as bad this season

without Julian Peterson and Andre Carter. The Rams have double

revenge, a more balanced attack and a tougher defense makeup thanks to

new defensive coordinator Jim Haslett.The Rams won and covered two of

their three grass games last year, while San Francisco averaged an NFL-low

12.1 points. However, the 49ers do look improved on offense. Frank Gore

has talent. Vernon Davis and Antonio Bryant give second-year man Alex

Smith weapons he didnÃ¢â‚¬â„¢t have last year. ST. LOUIS 27-21.

*Seattle over Arizona by 9

SeattleÃ¢â‚¬â„¢s offensive line and wide receivers are not yet at peak efficiency, but

the Seahawks still have too many weapons for an Arizona defense that lacks

a strong ball-hawking secondary. Shaun Alexander bludgeoned the

Cardinals for 313 yards rushing and six touchdowns in two games last year.

The Cardinals can pass on anybody with two great wideouts in Larry

Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin. We have concerns, though, about Kurt

WarnerÃ¢â‚¬â„¢s inability to put up touchdowns inside the Red Zone. Edgerrin

James isnÃ¢â‚¬â„¢t the type of back who can do much without holes to run

through. SEATTLE 36-27.

New England over *New York Jets by 7

Eric Mangini knows the Patriots well having been Bill BelichickÃ¢â‚¬â„¢s defensive

coordinator last year. ThatÃ¢â‚¬â„¢s not going to help New York put up points,

though.The Jets ranked 31st in offense last year Ã¢â‚¬â€œ and could be worse this

year with two rookies in the offensive line and no Curtis Martin.The Jets

are a bad combination of being both too old and too young.Look for speedsters

Doug Gabriel and Laurence Maroney to pick up bigger roles as they

get more comfortable in the PatriotsÃ¢â‚¬â„¢ offense. ItÃ¢â‚¬â„¢s just two more weapons

for Tom Brady to prey upon a weak Jets secondary. NEW ENGLAND 23-16.

*San Diego over Tennessee by 14

The Titans are committed to a ground attack. But theyÃ¢â‚¬â„¢ll need an effective

passing game to move the ball on the Chargers, who led the league in rush

defense last year. The question is whoÃ¢â‚¬â„¢s the Titans quarterback? Kerry

Collins is rusty, Billy Volek isnÃ¢â‚¬â„¢t starting material and Vince Young isnÃ¢â‚¬â„¢t

ready. Not helping matters is the Titans are breaking in new offensive tackles.

The TitansÃ¢â‚¬â„¢ top three running backs, Chris Brown, Travis Henry and

rookie LenDale White, averaged a meager 3.1 yards rushing during preseason

and 3.4 opening week. The Chargers have too much defense for the

cross-country traveling Titans. SAN DIEGO 27-13.

*Dallas over Washington by 7

Aside from this being a huge division rivalry game, the Cowboys have extra

incentive for this Sunday night home game having been swept by

Washington last season.The RedskinsÃ¢â‚¬â„¢ 35-7 thrashing was the most lopsided

score in the 45-year history of the series. ItÃ¢â‚¬â„¢s a short week for the Redskins,

who were outscored, 104-27 during preseason, having hosted Minnesota

this past Monday night. DallasÃ¢â‚¬â„¢ quick, physical 3-4 defense should present

plenty of problems for the Redskins, who donÃ¢â‚¬â„¢t have a healthy Clinton

Portis (partially dislocated shoulder) and lack a nimble, top-flight quarterback.

DALLAS 16-9.

*Jacksonville over Pittsburgh by 1 (Monday)

Jacksonville beat Pittsburgh on the road last year in overtime, but Tommy

Maddox was the Steelers quarterback, gift wrapping the game to the

Jaguars with a generous four turnovers, including a 41-yard interception

returned for the winning touchdown. Now the Steelers may have to go

with another reserve QB as Ben Roethlisberger recovers from an appendectomy.

Charlie Batch is 3-0 the past two years when called upon to start,

plus the Steelers get five extra days to prepare. Both teams are excellent

against the run.The Jaguars held the Steelers to 218 yards last season, while

keeping possession nearly nine minutes more than Pittsburgh. JACKSONVILLE

17-16.

OVER/UNDER

**OVER: Arizona at Seattle Ã¢â‚¬â€œ The Seahawks averaged 35 points

against the Cardinals last year with Shaun Alexander averaging three touchdowns,

while the Cardinals have a top passing game and place-kicker.

UNDER:Washington at Dallas Ã¢â‚¬â€œTwo physical defenses go at it against

immobile quarterbacks.

OVER: New Orleans at Green Bay Ã¢â‚¬â€œ Reggie Bush could break loose

here, while Packers put up 52 on a bad Saints defense last year.

HISTORICAL TRENDS

Oakland at Baltimore Ã¢â‚¬â€œ The Raiders beat the Ravens, 20-12, at home in

2003.

Houston at Indianapolis Ã¢â‚¬â€œ The Colts defeated the Texans last year, 38-28

on the road and 31-17 at home. The Colts are 8-0 SU, 4-4 ATS against

Houston.

Cleveland at Cincinnati Ã¢â‚¬â€œ The Bengals swept the Browns last year, winning

27-13 on the road and 23-20 at home.

Buffalo at Miami Ã¢â‚¬â€œ The teams split last season with the Bills winning, 20-

14 at home, and the Dolphins winning 24-23 at home.

Detroit at Chicago Ã¢â‚¬â€œ The Bears defeated the Lions last year, 38-6 at home

and 19-13 in overtime at Detroit.The Lions have covered four of their last

six at Chicago.

Carolina at Minnesota Ã¢â‚¬â€œ Carolina defeated Minnesota, 38-13, last year at

home.

New York Giants at Philadelphia Ã¢â‚¬â€œ The Giants beat the Eagles twice last

year, 27-17 at home and 26-23 in overtime at Philadelphia.The Eagles are 7-

3 SU and ATS the last 10 in the series.

Tampa Bay at Atlanta Ã¢â‚¬â€œ The Bucs swept the Falcons last year,winning 30-

27 on the road and 27-24 at home in overtime.

New Orleans at Green Bay Ã¢â‚¬â€œ Green Bay buried New Orleans, 52-3, last year

at home.

St. Louis at San Francisco Ã¢â‚¬â€œ The 49ers swept the Rams last year,winning

28-25 at home and 24-20 on the road.

Arizona at Seattle Ã¢â‚¬â€œ Seattle defeated Arizona in both meetings last year,

33-19 on the road and 37-12 at home.

New England at New York Jets Ã¢â‚¬â€œ New England swept the Jets last year,

winning 16-3 at home and 31-21 on the road.The Patriots are 7-0 ATS, 6-1

SU their last seven against the Jets.

Tennessee at San Diego Ã¢â‚¬â€œ San Diego beat Tennessee, 38-17, at home in

2004.

Kansas City at Denver Ã¢â‚¬â€œ The teams split last year with the Broncos winning,

30-10, at home and losing, 31-27, at Kansas City. The Broncos have

won and covered their past five home games against the Chiefs. Eight of

the last nine in the series have gone over.

Washington at Dallas Ã¢â‚¬â€œ Washington defeated Dallas twice last season, 14-

13 on the road and 35-7 at home. Dallas is 9-1 SU, 7-3 ATS its last 10 at home

against the Redskins.

Pittsburgh at Jacksonville Ã¢â‚¬â€œ The Jaguars knocked off the Steelers, 23-17

in overtime, last year at Pittsburgh.

posted by phantom

Sept. 14 2006 5:06pm
0 likes

Killer Sports

MTiÃ¢â‚¬â„¢s Side Play of the Week

5-Star Kansas City +10Ã¢â‚¬â„¢ over DENVERÃ¢â‚¬â€This line has jumped

tremendously due to the injury to Trent Green. However, the

Broncos have almost as bad a problem with their quarterback. In their

opener, Jake Plummer threw three interceptions and lost a fumble

and the Broncos lost 18-10 to the Rams. In the Broncos previous

game, a 34-17 home loss to the Steelers as a favorite, Plummer also

committed four turnovers. This time it was two lost fumbles and

two interceptions. So, Jake Plummer has committed eight turnovers

in his last two games. Historically, the problem with Plummer has

been turnovers. We expect Shanahan to severely restrict PlummerÃ¢â‚¬â„¢s

passing in this game. He will be a hand-off machine, as the Broncos

simply cannot afford numerous turnoversÃ¢â‚¬â€especially as a heavy

favorite. This will keep the game lower scoring and give the Chiefs

an excellent chance to cover.

The reason why the Chiefs were flat last week was that they were

looking forward to this game. ItÃ¢â‚¬â„¢s the classic Ã¢â‚¬Å“home-vs-a-non-divisional-

opponent-before-visiting-a-strong-divisional-rival syndrome.

The Bucs, Browns and Redskins all were in the same situation and all

looked terrible in week 1. We expect the Chiefs to be at their absolute

best here. The defense will be primed to perform for the injured Green

and all Huard will be asked to do is hand off the ballÃ¢â‚¬â€as the Chiefs

have a great running game. We imagine that Huard will have a great

day passing the ball (high completion percentage, not high yardage)

simply because the Broncos will be playing run all the way.

Trend-wise, weÃ¢â‚¬â„¢ll note that the Chiefs are a perfect 9-0 ATS as a dog

after a straight up loss at home, covering by an average of 10.1 ppg.

With a number this big, itÃ¢â‚¬â„¢s very hard for a running team, the

Broncos, to cover. ItÃ¢â‚¬â„¢s hard for them to score quickly and run up the

score.

We have a lot of respect for Herm Edwards and defensive coordinator

Gunther Cunningham. Grab the hugely over-inflated number.

MTiÃ¢â‚¬â„¢s FORECAST: Kansas City 20 DENVER 17

4-Star BALTIMORE -11Ã¢â‚¬â„¢ over OaklandÃ¢â‚¬â€The Raiders were in a

tough spot in week one and they are in another tough one here.

The Ravens finally got what they have been missingÃ¢â‚¬â€a quarterback

who they can trust. A tough, veteran quarterback that they can count

on not to turn the ball over. A quarterback that can take the team on

long drives that allow the defense to catch their breath. McNair is not

a pretty boy. He is a hog and the defense respects him. We look for

great things from the Ravens this season.

When the Ravens have momentum, they are very tough to beat.

Baltimore is 7-0 ATS as a home favorite when they covered by 10+

points last week against a non-divisional opponent, beating the spread

by an average of a whopping 15.8 ppg. In addition, the Ravens are 6-0

ATS (12.4 ppg) as a home favorite when they got revenge last week,

7-0 ATS (14.4 ppg) as a home favorite when facing a team that has an

average turnover margin of at least +1 per game, season-to-date and

9-0-1 ATS (11.0 ppg) at home on grass vs a non-divisional opponent

before playing against a divisional opponent.

The Raiders may be a play-on team later in the season, but they

simply do not match-up well with the Ravens. Indeed, Oakland is

0-10 ATS (-11.9 ppg) on the road when their opponentÃ¢â‚¬â„¢s season-todate

average pass attempts per game is fewer than 30. The complete

query output file for this situation is shown at the bottom of the facing

page. As is clear by looking down the straight up margin column

(SUm). The Raiders have lost their last six in this situation by at least

13 points!

The Ravens will rush the ball and keep their defense fresh while

keeping their opponentÃ¢â‚¬â„¢s offense off the field.

Last week in Tampa Bay, the Ravens offense had 35:49 of possession

time so the defense will be fresh. This is not what the Raiders need.

Finally, the Raiders are off a game on Monday Night that they

actually thought they had a chance of winning (apparently, many

other handicappers did too) and they are not relishing the prospect of

facing the Ravens in Baltimore. The Raiders are 0-6 ATS (-8.0 ppg)

since the 2003 season when they are off a loss that dropped them one

game below 500. WeÃ¢â‚¬â„¢ll probably be on the Raiders later in the season,

as we believe they are improved, but this week they are overmatched.

Our OU for Oakland longest scoring drive, if they have one, is 30

yards as they are not going to march the ball down the field against

this defense.

MTiÃ¢â‚¬â„¢s FORECAST: BALTIMORE 20 Oakland 0

MTiÃ¢â‚¬â„¢s Totals Play of the Week

4-Star New Orleans at Green Bay OVERÃ¢â‚¬â€The Packers were

shut out by the Bears last week, but here they get the Saints, whoÃ¢â‚¬â„¢s

defense was made to look great by the inept offense of the Browns.

We expect that the Packers will play aggressively on offense and put

plenty of points on the board here. Green Bay is 7-0 OU when the

line is within 3 of pick at home after a straight up loss as a dog, going

over by an average of 12.5 ppg. When this trend was active last season,

the Packers put up 52 pointsÃ¢â‚¬â€against these Saints.

In addition, the Packers are 7-0-1 OU (9.4 ppg) after hosting the

Bears and 5-0 OU (12.3 ppg) when the line is within 3 of pick versus

an undefeated team after week 1. The Saints offense wasnÃ¢â‚¬â„¢t that great against the Browns, but we

look for scoring here, as they are 9-0 OU when the line is within 3

of pickÃ¢â‚¬â„¢em and they got a first down on less than 25% of their offensive

plays in their last game, going over the number by an average

of 13.9 ppg.

In addition, New Orleans is 8-0 OU (+13.9 ppg) since week 16,

2001 when they are on the road and the line is within 3 of pick,

when facing a team that has rushed the ball on at least 55% of their

offensive plays, season-to-date.

We expect both offenses to be loose and the game to be high scoring.

Take the OVER.

MTiÃ¢â‚¬â„¢s FORECAST: GREEN BAY 31 New Orleans 28 OVER

MTiÃ¢â‚¬â„¢s Teaser Play of the Week

MTiÃ¢â‚¬â„¢s teaser of the week went down in week one when the Chiefs

couldnÃ¢â‚¬â„¢t stay within 8 points of the Bengals. Perhaps losing their

QB had something to do with it. Here we offer three VERY SOLID

teaser trends. The teaser trends, which are listed below, combine to

a staggering 107-1!

The Falcons are 24-0 ATSp10 as a home favorite when they play

on the road next week.

The Ravens are 52-1 ATSp10 since they entered the league as a

home favorite.

The Jets are 31-0 ATSp10 as an underdog when the O/U line is

37 points or fewer.

This makes our 3-Team, 10-Point Teaser of the Week:

4-Star Atlanta +4.5, Baltimore -1Ã¢â‚¬â„¢ and New York Jets +16

MTi Sports ForecastingÃ¢â‚¬â„¢s 6-point, 2-team teasers were a perfect 3-0

in week oneÃ¢â‚¬â€as guaranteed. As always, MTiÃ¢â‚¬â„¢s teasers are guaranteed

to be PERFECT or you pay nothing.

posted by phantom

Sept. 14 2006 5:07pm
0 likes

Sports marketwatch

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Welcome to this week's edition of the Sports Marketwatch, where Daniel Fabrizio, gives sports fans unprecedented insight into the NFL point-spread market. If you ever wanted to know what was really happening on the sportsbook side, you now have an all-access pass with Sports Marketplace!

Every week he speaks directly with the line managers at Pinnacle, Bowmans, 5Dimes, BetUs and Oasis about which games the public is chasing and the Sharps are pounding. Dan takes a look at whatÃ¢â‚¬â„¢s in store for this week in the NFL.

Sports Marketwatch Ã¢â‚¬â€œ NFL Week 2

Recapping Last Week

NFL Week 1 looked like some teams werenÃ¢â‚¬â„¢t ready for the season to begin. As usual, there were surprises. For the first time in years, Green Bay was shut out at home! This marked the first time in his career that Brett Favre was shut out. This could be a long season for Ã¢â‚¬Å“The Pack.Ã¢â‚¬

posted by phantom

Sept. 15 2006 2:31pm
0 likes

Thanks for reminding me about HQ Report

funny thing is they don't have any college up yet, just crowing about going 8 - 0 last week- i'll check it again tomorrow night

here's the NFL:

HQ REPORT

NFL FOOTBALL SELECTIONS

5* Dolphins over Bills by 13

Total Recall Over/Under:Lions vs Bears Play UNDER

Super System Line: Jets (+) over Patriots

posted by phantom

Sept. 15 2006 2:31pm
0 likes

Steam Sheet (NFL)

Nicky's Dynamite Dog

3* NY GIANTS over Philadelphia by 7

I promised myself that I would put nothing but quality

underdogs in this spot this season and there isn't a better one

on the board than the Giants this Sunday. They ran through

the Colts at will, converted third downs with ease, and stuffed

the Indianapolis running game. They did everything but win

the flag race. Ten penalties to three for the Colts is what did the

Giants in and we've learned that teams who lose because of

excessive flagging are usually more focused in their next

outing. Philadelphia had an easy time with the punchless

Houston Texans but the Eagle defense is still suspect. I don't

believe they can hold the Giants down for a full sixty minutes.

I'm sticking with the "best dog on the board" theory. You

always have a chance and the Giants have a good one.

ELI'S COMIN' 23-16!

Another Salvo from Nick's big gun

3* BALTIMORE over Oakland by 17

In the on one week, off the next NFL, it's always dangerous to

take the team that was on against the team that was off. Here,

though, on and off were taken to new extremes. Baltimore

absolutely throttled a decent Tampa Bay offense and used its

defense and special teams to post a convincing win. Oakland,

on the other hand, looked more like a Division III college team

with that horrendous performance against San Diego. 129

yards of total offense won't win you many games in this league,

especially when you give up half again that many in rushing

yards alone. The linemaker has adjusted for those diametrically

opposed performances, make no mistake there, but it will

surprise me if both teams do a flip-flop in this game. Ray Lewis

has the Ravens thinking Super Bowl. Oakland still stinks.

EVERYBODY LOVES RAYMOND 27-10!

Indianapolis over Houston by 13

The Texans have never beaten Peyton but they have managed

four covers in eight tries. Without a running game, the Colts

might have trouble covering these big numbers. We pass.

Cincinnati over Cleveland by 10

As explosive as the Bengals are, they've covered just three

times in their last ten tries as home chalk. This is a bitter

rivalry and the Browns are intense about making up for that

dismal effort against the Saints. Be careful here.

Miami over Buffalo by 7

The Bills managed to cover against the Pats last Sunday,

much to our dismay, but after bolting to an early 17-7 lead,

they were completely stymied by the New England defense.

Now, if we can just get Oops Culpepper to throw straight...

Chicago over Detroit by 7

People around here are putting the Bears in the Super Bowl

after last week's win at Green Bay. It's going to take a little

more convincing to get us on the bandwagon. Lions ain't bad.

Carolina over Minnesota by 4

If Steve Smith is back, we might move this one up to the front

page. Atlanta was wired last week and, even if Smith had

played, would not have lost the game. Minnesota will play with

much less emotion. Carolina doesn't even want to think 0-2.

Atlanta over Tampa by 4

Another of those diametrically opposed results we talked

about in the Baltimore-Oakland analysis. This one is different,

though. Tampa can play. No NFL team can maintain the

emotional fury that Atlanta had last week two weeks in a row

Green Bay over New Orleans by 1

The third of our opposite result games has an even different

twist. This time, the team that stunk up the field the week

before is led by the guttiest man who ever suited up in the NFL.

He will make amends by winning this on will alone.

St Louis over San Francisco by 3

If it wasn't for the embarrassing double revenge motivation

that the Rams have in this game, we might take a shot at San

Francisco here. Then again, the Niners don't win very often

and you could go broke trying to pick the day they will.

Seattle over Arizona by 7

In addition to blowing lunch when San Fran launched the Hail

Mary that buried us, we picked up a couple of things from

watching that game. The Cardinal defense isn't as improved as

we thought. That theory could be proven by a flock of Seahawks

who were thoroughly disgusted with their effort in Detroit.

New England over NY Jets by 6

There are a couple of strong angles on the Jets here and we'll

respect that. However, we will not fade a gang of Patriots who,

like the Seattle bunch, were not amused by their dismal effort

against Buffalo. Belichik won't lose this game.

San Diego over Tennessee by 11

Apparently the Chargers don't need Drew Brees. Of course,

Rivers was hardly tested by the Raiders and won't get much

resistance today. Still, we don't lay 11 with rookie QB's.

Denver over Kansas City by 11

If Trent Green were playing, Denver would be at the top of our

card. Because he isn't, the line is inflated and Denver's bubble

of enthusiasm is deflated. We will not be baited into fading the

wounded dog. Our interest in this affair has abated.

Dallas over Washington by 6

One of these teams will be 0-2 and facing an uphill battle the

rest of the season. We think it will be Washington but we won't

back our opinion with money or stars.

Pittsburgh over Jacksonville by 1

The Steelers have won ten road games in a row. Until they lose

one, Charlie Batch or not, we won't fade them, particularly at

this price. If Ben is announced though, Pitt goes favored.

posted by phantom

Sept. 15 2006 2:33pm
0 likes

Power Sweep with w/u

NFL Selections Page

KEY SELECTIONS

4* Carolina over MINNESOTA - CAR has won the L3 meetings between these teams since 2001 including a 38-13 victory as a 7 pt HF LY. The Vikings lost former QB Culpepper in LYÃ¢â‚¬â„¢s game & CAR jumped out to a 24-0 lead at the half with 16-3 FD & 287-76 yd edges before shifting into ball control mode. CAR is 6-1 ATS in road openers & 9-4-2 ATS in domes & 9-2 ATS on the road after a SU home loss. MIN is 19-6 ATS as a HD. The Panthers were shutdown in their home opener LW as they were outFD 24-15 & outgained 385-215. The offense struggled without Steve Smith (hamstring) as it failed to mount a drive of 35 yds or longer & didnÃ¢â‚¬â„¢t convert a 3rd down until :30 into the 4Q. The defense allowed 252 yds rushing (5.4) & now must go on the road in one of the louder venues of the NFL. The offense also lost LT Wharton & the defense lost MLB Morgan to a concussion & itÃ¢â‚¬â„¢s unknown if either will return here. The Vikings are off LWÃ¢â‚¬â„¢s MNF game vs WAS but lack the offensive versatility & explosiveness that the Falcons have. MIN is heavily overrated coming into 2006 as they beat several weak teams to lineup for a playoff spot LY & they donÃ¢â‚¬â„¢t have any WRÃ¢â‚¬â„¢s that have started in the West Coast scheme. Carolina is vastly better team than LW & should put in a drastically better performance here. FORECAST: Carolina 28 MINNESOTA 10

3* New England over NY JETS - NE is 7-1-1 ATS vs the Jets & this is the 1st meeting between Belichick & his former DC Eric Mangini who left the team on bad terms. LY the Patriots used a pair of meetings vs the weakened Jets to help fuel their late season drive for the playoffs. This included the final MNF game on ABC which NE won 31-21 as a 7 pt AF as they piled on 26-10 FD & 321-171 yd edges. Two of the Jets scores were off NE mistakes as BradyÃ¢â‚¬â„¢s int was for a TD & a fumbled shotgun snap set up a short 27 yd TD pass. Pennington had a solid game vs the Titans LW throwing for 319 yds (73%) with 2 TDÃ¢â‚¬â„¢s vs LYÃ¢â‚¬â„¢s #19 defense. The Jets now face a Patriots team with a far more capable pass defense that will be looking to make amends after almost losing to BUF at home LW. NE resorted to the run game to offset the rebuilding WR unit & rushed for 183 yds (4.5) & now take on a NYJ defense that allowed 137 ypg rushing (4.0) LY. While the Jets did hold TEN to 86 yds rushing (3.6) it was easy to do by stacking the box & not fearing a QB 13 days into the system. Despite the win LW the Patriots wonÃ¢â‚¬â„¢t be satisfied with their performance & get the road win in a lower scoring game. FORECAST: New England 24 NY JETS 6

OTHER SELECTIONS

2* SAN DIEGO over Tennessee - SD beat the Titans 38-17 as a 3 pt HD in the last meeting in 2004. The Chargers are off LWÃ¢â‚¬â„¢s MNF game vs the Raiders & those results are unknown as is the performance of QB Rivers. Teams off a MNF game with a bye on deck are 3-10 ATS since 1999 & with Schottenheimer back. TEN is 1-6 as a non-div AD. The Titans found themselves down 16-0 vs the Jets new defensive scheme LW before they rallied to tie with 6:00 left in the game. The Titans lacked cohesion under QB Collins who passed for 223 yds (45%) with 2 int & heÃ¢â‚¬â„¢ll face a Chargers defense that finished 5th in the NFL with 46 sacks. SD also has plenty of tape on Collins having faced him the L2Y with the Raiders & are 4-0 SU & ATS against him. TEN now has to take to the road after losing to what must have been viewed as a winnable game to a Chargers defense that allowed 84 ypg rushing (3.5) LY. SD should easily dominate a rebuilding Titans team that actually put Vince Young out on the field for a series & not let up after LYÃ¢â‚¬â„¢s disappointing season. FORECAST: SAN DIEGO 38 Tennessee 3

2* NY Giants over PHILADELPHIA - The Giants are off LWÃ¢â‚¬â„¢s Sun Night game vs the Colts & its not known just how much if any their pass defense is improved over the unit that was throttled in the Playoffs. The Eagles are 5-1 ATS in this series & the home team is 6-2 ATS. The Giants are 3-6 ATS as division dogs. PHI is 12-5 ATS as a div favorite. The Eagles overcame a slow start LW vs the Texans to earn a 24-10 victory vs one of the weakest teams in the NFL. They had a 441-241 yd edge & while they did hold the Texans to 70 yds rushing (3.5) HOU was fielding a 6th RD DC rookie RB. The Giants are a more well rounded team offensively with Barber, Shockey & Burress than the Texans & have a vastly stronger DL as well. Coughlin knows that he has an incredibly tough schedule to open the season (our 5th rated) & needs a strong performance to keep the season under control. The Giants have a solid special teams unit & defense tough enough to slow down the Eagles who didnÃ¢â‚¬â„¢t face a pass rush LW to pull off the upset. FORECAST: NY Giants 21 PHILADELPHIA 20

OTHER GAMES

BALTIMORE 23 Oakland 3 - OAK won the last meeting 20-12 as a 6 pt HD back in 2003. This is the longest road trip for the Raiders til the season finale but they have an early season bye week on deck. They are 7-0 ATS on the road & 6-3 ATS vs a non-div foe before their bye week. OAK is also off the late MNF game LW & HC Shell will have to contend with making adjustments with a new team on a short week & then traveling cross country against a physical defense. BAL is 14-4 as a HF of 9.5 or less & OAK is 8-17 ATS on the road. The Ravens did a solid job vs the Bucs LW as they had 16-8 FD & 271-142 yd edges holding RB Williams to 22 yds (2.. They now face a Raiders team that has more firepower on paper but it remains to be seen if QB Brooks can handle a stout defense on the road. McNair did a decent job of managing the BAL offense with 181 yds (63%) with a TD & now gets to take on a Raider defense that finished 26th LY & isnÃ¢â‚¬â„¢t as good as its looks. While there is no line due to the MNF results BAL now has a QB they feel they can win with & an energized defense making them the play.

INDIANAPOLIS 28 Houston 3 - IND is 8-0 SU in this series with an avg score of 29-14 but only 4-4 ATS. IND is 11-24-1 ATS as a div HF. HOU is 8-3 ATS as a div dog. The Colts dominated both games LY with 28-12 FD & 428-174 avg yd edges & in the 2nd game held HOU to 2 FD in the 1st 27:00. The Colts are off LWÃ¢â‚¬â„¢s Sun Night gm vs the Giants & itÃ¢â‚¬â„¢s not known just how well they adjusted to life without Edgerrin James. The Texans had a respectable 1H vs the Eagles but their lack of depth & inexperience in KubiakÃ¢â‚¬â„¢s new system hurt them as they were outFDÃ¢â‚¬â„¢d 13-7 & outgained 207-71 in the 2H. The OL allowed 5 sacks & the secondary allowed 311 yds passing with 3 TDÃ¢â‚¬â„¢s which doesnÃ¢â‚¬â„¢t bode well vs Manning. The Colts are very familiar with the Kubiak offense having faced DEN 6 times since 2001 including the playoffs (4-2 ATS). The Colts have the overall edge in talent, are prepared for whatÃ¢â‚¬â„¢s coming & despite not knowing the Sun Night results are the play here.

CINCINNATI 21 Cleveland 14 - CLE is 6-3 ATS vs CIN & the favorite is 8-3 ATS in the series. LY the Browns lost 23-20 as a 12 pt AD as QB Frye made his 2nd career start. He passed for 138 yds (67%) with a 1-1 ratio but the CLE defense couldnÃ¢â‚¬â„¢t contain Bengals RB Rudi Johnson who rushed for 169 yds (5.6). CIN also benefitted from a Frye int that set up a 4 yd TD pass to give CIN the lead 20-17 & they won on a 37 yd FG with :01 left. LW the Browns were beaten by a Saints team fielding an OL with 5 new faces at each position & now face a team with all 5 OL returning for the 3rd straight season. The CLE offense started off very slowly in the 1H LW as they failed to earn a FD until the 2:00 warning & were outgained 326-186. Frye played like the rookie QB he essentially is with 132 yds passing (60%) with an 1-2 ratio. CIN made the most out of having excellent starting field position (CIN 47 vs KC 24) & only needed to mount one drive over 45 yds in the game. The Browns did several good things LW in the 2H as they made adjustments in the game plan offensively & were driving for the win until Frye was intÃ¢â‚¬â„¢d. CIN has big games vs PIT & NE on deck & Crennel is savvy enough to devise a gameplan to minimize mistakes & keep the game within the numbers.

MIAMI 24 Buffalo 6 - The Bills have covered 4 straight in this series losing 24-23 in MIA LY as a 5 pt AD. BUF blew a 23-3 lead in the 3Q as MIA threw 3 TDÃ¢â‚¬â„¢s in the final 11:35 winning the game on a 4 yd TD pass with :06 left. MIA had 17-8 FD & 295-95 yd edges in the 2H of the game. MIA is 1-12 ATS as a division HF & 1-5 ATS at home after losing by 10+. Culpepper self destructed in the 4Q of LWÃ¢â‚¬â„¢s game & with a 17-14 lead in the 4Q Culpepper threw for 60 yds (44%) with 2 intÃ¢â‚¬â„¢s & 2 sacks vs a 3-4 scheme which he didnÃ¢â‚¬â„¢t see much of with the Vikings. The Bills did a respectable job vs NE LW by keeping Brady & the NE offense off balance with a good defensive gameplan but were outgained 204-74 in the 2H. MIA does have more of a balanced offense than NE does right now with TE McMichael, RB Brown & WR Chambers should have more of an impact than the 5 rec (11. he had LW. MIA also has the advantage of being at home in the humidity, 3 extra days of rest & planning with a veteran defense vs Losman on the road.

CHICAGO 16 Detroit 13 - CHI won both meetings LY SU, 38-6 & 19-13 in OT, despite being labeled as a dog in both games. The dog is 9-3-1 ATS in this series & CHI is 5-10 as a HF vs the Lions. In the 1st meeting LY CHI intÃ¢â‚¬â„¢d DET 5 times & reeled of 24 unanswered points & ended the day with a 336-234 yd edge. In the 2nd game DET was w/o 7 starters & backups as CHI blew a 13-3 1H lead & a 216-103 yd edge & an int return for a TD decided the game for CHI in OT. DET goes from facing a fast defense on turf to a physical defense outdoors on grass. DET did a very good job of slowing the Seahawks down LW by blocking a pair of FGÃ¢â‚¬â„¢s & making 5 sacks. They however did allow 6 sacks vs SEA & now face a Bears team that showed no dropoff by beating GB 28-0. CHI went up 16-0 vs the Packers in the 1H but the offense is still struggling as they settled for FGÃ¢â‚¬â„¢s on 4 drives inside the GB 22 yd line. This is the 2nd of 3 straight games vs a 1st year HC for the Bears but DET HC Marinelli & QB Kitna gives the Lions enough leadership & discipline to keep within the number in a lower scoring affair.

ATLANTA 17 Tampa Bay 16 - TB is 8-2-1 ATS vs the Falcons & the favorite is 11-5-1 ATS. LY TB came into ATL & won 30-27 as a 6 pt AD. The Falcons run defense allowed 116 yds to RB Williams LY behind a surprisingly strong OL. The Falcons missed a 55 yd FG to tie at the end but had a 26-15 FD edge, 443-258 yd edge but the offense couldnÃ¢â‚¬â„¢t protect Vick. TB had 30-19 FD & 444-281 yd edges. TBÃ¢â‚¬â„¢s fast & disciplined Cover-2 scheme is ideal for controlling Vick who has avg 144 ypg (52%) with an 8-4 ratio & 41 yds rushing (5. with a 2-5 SU & 2-4-1 ATS record. TB is 5-2 ATS as a div AD while ATL is 11-3-1 as a div HF. TB was shutout for the 1st time since the 5th game of 1996 due to key mistakes by Chris Simms who passed for 133 yds (59%) with 3 int that setup 17 pts. RB Williams was held to 22 yds (2. as the TB OL started 2 new OGÃ¢â‚¬â„¢s. The Falcons shredded the Panthers who were without WR Smith while LT Wharton & MLB Morgan were KOÃ¢â‚¬â„¢d of the game. ATL had 24-15 FD & 385-215 yd edges vs a limited Panthers team which gives good value here. Look for TB to do whatever it takes to get Cadillac Williams on the road & give Simms something to work with in a lower scoring game.

GREEN BAY 27 New Orleans 20 - GB annihilated NO LY 52-3 as a 3 pt HF as the Saints began to wear down physically due to a lack of facilities & an uneven schedule. The Packers were without 4 offensive starters & RB Davenport to a broken ankle. NO hit 33 yd FG in its opening drive then GB took over with 52 unanswered points. GB only had a 309-254 yd edge but were +5 in TOÃ¢â‚¬â„¢s which set up several short drives for scores. NO is in a look-ahead situation as they finally return home next week on MNF vs ATL & the team has 26 players that werenÃ¢â‚¬â„¢t on the roster in December. They did beat a CLE team with basically a rookie QB, WR & TE on the road LW & now face a GB team that is off a crushing division loss. Favre passed for 170 yds (52%) with 2 int & 3 sacks but Ahman Green did get 110 yds (5.5) vs a tough Bears offense. This is a winnable home game for GB that takes a step down & Favre should redeem himself here.

St Louis 27 SAN FRANCISCO 24 - SF is 8-3 ATS hosting the Rams & won both games LY as 6 pt & 9 pt dogs. The favorite is 15-6-1 ATS. STL is 7-16 ATS on grass. STL is 4-10 ATS in division play. SF is 3-6 ATS as a dog of 7 or less. Bulger had an avg day vs the Broncos LW passing for 217 yds (53%) takes a major step down in competition here. The 49ers were one of the youngest teams in the NFL LY & HC Nolan noted that they are even younger this year. The team has major issues with the pass rush as their 3 sacks LW were against an OL that isnÃ¢â‚¬â„¢t known for solid pass protection. ARZ also didnÃ¢â‚¬â„¢t send a lot of pressure against Smith LW (sacked once) & that allowed SF to put forth a spirited effort as they kept pace with a potent ARZ offense with a 393-367 yd edge. Smith threw for 288 yds (57%) with a TD but one has to wonder how much of that was attributed to extra time to plan. The Rams forced 4 TOÃ¢â‚¬â„¢s vs the Broncos but only converted that into 9 pts. RB Jackson had a good game with 121 yds (5.5) & will take on a team that has one of the weakest LB units in the NFL. WeÃ¢â‚¬â„¢ll call for STL to win the game SU in a higher scoring game but want to see how the line shapes up.

SEATTLE 24 Arizona 21 - SEA is 5-2 ATS vs the Cardinals & won both games in 2005. SEA won the 1st game easily 37-12 as a 6 pt HF as Warner & 4 other starters were KOÃ¢â‚¬â„¢d of the game & SEA had 29-15 FD & 447-266 yd edges. Warner returned for the 2nd meeting a 33-19 loss as a 4 pt AD & the SEA run game dominated with a 208 (6.3) to 71 (3.6) rushing edge. SEA is 5-2 ATS as a div HF. ARZ is 8-21 ATS on the road. The Seahawks overcame a sluggish start & a strong gameplan by the Lions to escape with a 6-3 win LW. In the first 3 drives SEA had a missed FG, fumble & blocked FG & didnÃ¢â‚¬â„¢t appear to be the offensive juggernaut from 2005. RB Alexander was held to 51 yds rushing (2.7) & the left side of the OL simply wasnÃ¢â‚¬â„¢t as dominant as LY. The Cardinals won their stadium opener vs SF LW 34-27 but allowed a backdoor cover on a 44 yd FG with :32 left. The passing attack was crisp as Warner threw for 301 yds (62%) with 3 TDÃ¢â‚¬â„¢s. The run game still wasnÃ¢â‚¬â„¢t impressive despite the addition of James who had 20 of his 73 yds vs a tired SF defense on ARZÃ¢â‚¬â„¢s last drive. SEA wasnÃ¢â‚¬â„¢t that impressive LW & ARZ has the offensive firepower to keep pace & stay within the number here.

Kansas City vs DENVER - The Broncos have won & covered 5 straight at home vs the Chiefs with an avg margin of 32-18. The home team is 9-1-1 ATS & DEN is 12-2-2 ATS as a division HF. KC is 1-6 ATS as a division AD. Herm Edwards was 4-8-1 ATS as a division dog & will have to contend with the fact QB Green may not play here due to a head injury after a Bengals defender was pushed into him by WR Kennison while sliding. This will put the onus on Larry Johnson who ran for 140 yds (4.7) in his 1st official start vs the Broncos which was at home. The Broncos were upset vs the Rams LW due to 5 TOÃ¢â‚¬â„¢s & a roughing the punter penalty which set up 9 pts for the Rams. Shanahan will keep Plummer on a short rope here to rebound from LW but without knowing GreenÃ¢â‚¬â„¢s condition weÃ¢â‚¬â„¢ll pass for now.

Washington vs DALLAS - LY the Redskins stunned the Cowboys on MNF for their 1st win at Texas Stadium since 1995 with 2 TD passes late in the 4Q to win 14-13 as 5 pt ADÃ¢â‚¬â„¢s. This was just the 2nd win in 16 meetings for WAS & the 1st Gibbs victory over Parcells in their L9 matchups. DAL is off a physical game vs the Jaguars while the Redskins got to test out their new offense vs the Vikings on MNF. Phil SteeleÃ¢â‚¬â„¢s Private Play Hotline will release a Red Hot Sunday Night ESPN Marquee Play! Call 1-800-654-3448 after 11:00 am ET on Sunday or 1-900-438-9467 for just $15. This play is also available on your Northcoast Debit Card or http://www.ncsports.com [ncsports.com]">www.ncsports.com for only $9. NOW 31-15 67% Winner!

Pittsburgh at JACKSONVILLE - LY the Jaguars beat the Steelers 23-17 as a 3.5 pt AD in OT as the Steelers were without both WR Ward & QB Roethlisberger & JAX was without RB Taylor. The Steelers were driving for the win in OT but were intÃ¢â‚¬â„¢d on the PIT 41 & the Jags ran it back for the game winning TD. Cowher is 16-8-1 ATS on MNF (dropping 3 of L/4) but is only 2-8 ATS vs this former AFC Central team. There is no line due to RoethlisbergerÃ¢â‚¬â„¢s appendix but several Steelers expressed confidence in his ability to return for this game. Call for the Monday Night Magic Play on the PAY AFTER YOU WIN BASIS FOR JUST $25. 1-800-654-3448 after 5:00 pm ET Monday for your Winner! Already 4-1 this year!

posted by phantom

Sept. 15 2006 2:34pm
0 likes

pointwise red sheet late week forecast:

89 and above superior play 88 and below above avg.

college:

mich. 89

sdst. 89

ohio st. 88

misso. 88

tulsa 88

pro:

miami 88

near choices rated 87's

flor.

minny(college)

so.miss.

baltimore

new england

jacks

posted by phantom

Sept. 15 2006 2:37pm
0 likes

Dunkel Index - Pro Football (Sunday, Monday)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Dunkel Index - NFL

Carolina at Minnesota

Funny how impressions about teams can change after one game. No bigger example of that than the Carolina Panthers, who were picked by many to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl but now find themselves in a pick 'em game against a team (Minnesota) that lost to them by 25 points (38-13) last year. Certainly Carolina looked like anything but champs in Week One when the Panthers were dominated at home by the Falcons (20-6). And questions remain about how effective the offense can be without wide receiver Steve Smith, who remains questionable for the game with a lingering hamstring injury. But what was most surprising was a defense that ranked No. 3 last year in yardage allowed (282.6 per game) giving up 385 yards to the Falcons. That's something that should improve this week and enable the Panthers to take advantage of the dropping Vegas line according to Dunkel, which has Carolina favored by 3 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Carolina. Here are all of this week's games.

SUNDAY, SEPTEMBER 17

Game 401-402: Oakland at Baltimore

Dunkel Ratings: Oakland 121.247; Baltimore 130.110

Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 9; 34

Vegas Line: Baltimore by 12; 34

Dunkel Pick: Oakland (+12); Neutral

Game 403-404: Houston at Indianapolis

Dunkel Ratings: Houston 120.061; Indianapolis 136.372

Dunkel Line: Indianapolis by 16 1/2; 43 1/2

Vegas Line: Indianapolis by 13 1/2; 47

Dunkel Pick: Indianapolis (-13 1/2); Under

Game 405-406: Cleveland at Cincinnati

Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland 121.847; Cincinnati 131.258

Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 9 1/2; 39 1/2

Vegas Line: Cincinnati by 10 1/2; 42

Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (+10 1/2); Under

Game 407-408: Buffalo at Miami

Dunkel Ratings: Buffalo 126.188; Miami 127.307

Dunkel Line: Miami by 1; 39

Vegas Line: Miami by 6 1/2; 37

Dunkel Pick: Buffalo (+6 1/2); Over

Game 409-410: Detroit at Chicago

Dunkel Ratings: Detroit 123.764; Chicago 129.383

Dunkel Line: Chicago by 5 1/2; 33 1/2

Vegas Line: Chicago by 9; 32

Dunkel Pick: Detroit (+9); Over

Game 411-412: Carolina at Minnesota

Dunkel Ratings: Carolina 129.598; Minnesota 126.228

Dunkel Line: Carolina by 3 1/2; 38

Vegas Line: Pick; 37

Dunkel Pick: Carolina; Over

Game 413-414: NY Giants at Philadelphia

Dunkel Ratings: NY Giants 129.288; Philadelphia 128.488

Dunkel Line: NY Giants by 1; 42

Vegas Line: Philadelphia by 3; 42

Dunkel Pick: NY Giants (+3); Neutral

Game 415-416: Tampa Bay at Atlanta

Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay 125.483; Atlanta 131.034

Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 5 1/2; 34 1/2

Vegas Line: Atlanta by 5 1/2; 36

Dunkel Pick: Neutral; Under

Game 417-418: New Orleans at Green Bay

Dunkel Ratings: New Orleans 122.497; Green Bay 122.008

Dunkel Line: Even; 38

Vegas Line: New Orleans by 2 1/2; 38

Dunkel Pick: Green Bay (+2 1/2); Neutral

Game 419-420: St. Louis at San Francisco

Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis 124.735; San Francisco 117.036

Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 7 1/2; 45

Vegas Line: St. Louis by 3; 43 1/2

Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-3); Over

Game 421-422: Arizona at Seattle

Dunkel Ratings: Arizona 122.594; Seattle 130.506

Dunkel Line: Seattle by 8; 46 1/2

Vegas Line: Seattle by 7; 47

Dunkel Pick: Seattle (-7); Under

Game 423-424: New England at NY Jets

Dunkel Ratings: New England 131.163; NY Jets 122.273

Dunkel Line: New England by 9; 37 1/2

Vegas Line: New England by 5 1/2; 37

Dunkel Pick: New England (-5 1/2); Over

Game 425-426: Tennessee at San Diego

Dunkel Ratings: Tennessee 121.066; San Diego 132.367

Dunkel Line: San Diego by 11 1/2; 42 1/2

Vegas Line: San Diego by 11 1/2; 37 1/2

Dunkel Pick: Neutral; Over

Game 427-428: Kansas City at Denver

Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City 127.955; Denver 135.530

Dunkel Line: Denver by 7 1/2; 38 1/2

Vegas Line: Denver by 11; 38 1/2

Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (+11); Neutral

Game 429-430: Washington at Dallas

Dunkel Ratings: Washington 127.488; Dallas 128.379

Dunkel Line: Dallas by 1; 40

Vegas Line: Dallas by 6; 37

Dunkel Pick: Washington (+6); Over

MONDAY, SEPTEMBER 18

Game 431-432: Pittsburgh at Jacksonville

Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh 134.273; Jacksonville 130.332

Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 4; 39 1/2

Vegas Line: Pittsburgh by 1 1/2; 36 1/2

Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-1 1/2); Over

posted by phantom

Sept. 15 2006 5:44pm
0 likes

NFL Trend Report - Week 2

OAKLAND (0 - 0) at BALTIMORE (1 - 0) - 9/17/2006, 1:00 PM

Top Trends for this game.

OAKLAND is 6-15 ATS (-10.5 Units) as an underdog over the last 3 seasons.

OAKLAND is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History

There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

HOUSTON (0 - 1) at INDIANAPOLIS (1 - 0) - 9/17/2006, 1:00 PM

There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History

INDIANAPOLIS is 2-2 against the spread versus HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons

INDIANAPOLIS is 4-0 straight up against HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons

3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

CLEVELAND (0 - 1) at CINCINNATI (1 - 0) - 9/17/2006, 1:00 PM

Top Trends for this game.

CINCINNATI is 33-53 ATS (-25.3 Units) in home games against conference opponents since 1992.

CINCINNATI is 40-64 ATS (-30.4 Units) versus division opponents since 1992.

CINCINNATI is 18-33 ATS (-18.3 Units) in September games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History

CINCINNATI is 2-2 against the spread versus CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons

CINCINNATI is 3-1 straight up against CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons

2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

BUFFALO (0 - 1) at MIAMI (0 - 1) - 9/17/2006, 1:00 PM

Top Trends for this game.

MIAMI is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) versus division opponents over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History

BUFFALO is 4-0 against the spread versus MIAMI over the last 3 seasons

BUFFALO is 3-1 straight up against MIAMI over the last 3 seasons

3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

DETROIT (0 - 1) at CHICAGO (1 - 0) - 9/17/2006, 1:00 PM

There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History

CHICAGO is 2-1 against the spread versus DETROIT over the last 3 seasons

CHICAGO is 2-2 straight up against DETROIT over the last 3 seasons

3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

CAROLINA (0 - 1) at MINNESOTA (0 - 0) - 9/17/2006, 1:00 PM

Top Trends for this game.

CAROLINA is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) in road games over the last 3 seasons.

CAROLINA is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) in road lined games over the last 3 seasons.

CAROLINA is 87-62 ATS (+18.8 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History

CAROLINA is 1-0 against the spread versus MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons

CAROLINA is 1-0 straight up against MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons

1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

NY GIANTS (0 - 1) at PHILADELPHIA (1 - 0) - 9/17/2006, 1:00 PM

Top Trends for this game.

PHILADELPHIA is 104-73 ATS (+23.7 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History

PHILADELPHIA is 3-1 against the spread versus NY GIANTS over the last 3 seasons

PHILADELPHIA is 2-2 straight up against NY GIANTS over the last 3 seasons

3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

TAMPA BAY (0 - 1) at ATLANTA (1 - 0) - 9/17/2006, 1:00 PM

There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History

ATLANTA is 2-2 against the spread versus TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons

TAMPA BAY is 3-1 straight up against ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons

2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

NEW ORLEANS (1 - 0) at GREEN BAY (0 - 1) - 9/17/2006, 1:00 PM

Top Trends for this game.

NEW ORLEANS is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History

GREEN BAY is 1-0 against the spread versus NEW ORLEANS over the last 3 seasons

GREEN BAY is 1-0 straight up against NEW ORLEANS over the last 3 seasons

1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

ST LOUIS (1 - 0) at SAN FRANCISCO (0 - 1) - 9/17/2006, 4:05 PM

Top Trends for this game.

ST LOUIS is 56-80 ATS (-32.0 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.

ST LOUIS is 20-35 ATS (-18.5 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History

SAN FRANCISCO is 3-1 against the spread versus ST LOUIS over the last 3 seasons

SAN FRANCISCO is 2-2 straight up against ST LOUIS over the last 3 seasons

2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

ARIZONA (1 - 0) at SEATTLE (1 - 0) - 9/17/2006, 4:05 PM

Top Trends for this game.

SEATTLE is 21-37 ATS (-19.7 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.

SEATTLE is 9-25 ATS (-18.5 Units) as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History

SEATTLE is 2-2 against the spread versus ARIZONA over the last 3 seasons

SEATTLE is 3-1 straight up against ARIZONA over the last 3 seasons

4 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

NEW ENGLAND (1 - 0) at NY JETS (1 - 0) - 9/17/2006, 4:15 PM

Top Trends for this game.

NEW ENGLAND is 14-3 ATS (+10.7 Units) in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points over the last 3 seasons.

NY JETS are 6-17 ATS (-12.7 Units) in home games in September games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History

NEW ENGLAND is 3-0 against the spread versus NY JETS over the last 3 seasons

NEW ENGLAND is 4-0 straight up against NY JETS over the last 3 seasons

3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

TENNESSEE (0 - 1) at SAN DIEGO (0 - 0) - 9/17/2006, 4:15 PM

Top Trends for this game.

TENNESSEE is 11-22 ATS (-13.2 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.

TENNESSEE is 6-19 ATS (-14.9 Units) against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.

TENNESSEE is 11-22 ATS (-13.2 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.

SAN DIEGO is 22-9 ATS (+12.1 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.

SAN DIEGO is 22-9 ATS (+12.1 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.

SAN DIEGO is 19-9 ATS (+9.1 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History

SAN DIEGO is 1-0 against the spread versus TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons

SAN DIEGO is 1-0 straight up against TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons

1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

KANSAS CITY (0 - 1) at DENVER (0 - 1) - 9/17/2006, 4:15 PM

Top Trends for this game.

DENVER is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.

DENVER is 13-3 ATS (+9.7 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History

DENVER is 2-2 against the spread versus KANSAS CITY over the last 3 seasons

DENVER is 2-2 straight up against KANSAS CITY over the last 3 seasons

3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

WASHINGTON (0 - 0) at DALLAS (0 - 1) - 9/17/2006, 8:15 PM

Top Trends for this game.

DALLAS is 54-35 ATS (+15.5 Units) in home games against conference opponents since 1992.

WASHINGTON is 40-22 ATS (+15.8 Units) as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.

WASHINGTON is 25-8 ATS (+16.2 Units) as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992.

WASHINGTON is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History

DALLAS is 2-2 against the spread versus WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons

DALLAS is 2-2 straight up against WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons

2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

PITTSBURGH (1 - 0) at JACKSONVILLE (1 - 0) - 9/18/2006, 8:30 PM

Top Trends for this game.

JACKSONVILLE is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in September games over the last 3 seasons.

PITTSBURGH is 107-77 ATS (+22.3 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.

PITTSBURGH is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in road games over the last 2 seasons.

PITTSBURGH is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in road lined games over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History

JACKSONVILLE is 2-0 against the spread versus PITTSBURGH over the last 3 seasons

JACKSONVILLE is 1-1 straight up against PITTSBURGH over the last 3 seasons

1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

Sunday, September 17th

Oakland at Baltimore, 1:00 EST

Oakland: 2-11 ATS vs. conference opponents

Baltimore: 10-2 Under at home vs. conference opponents

Houston at Indianapolis, 1:00 EST

Houston: 1-5 ATS in September

Indianapolis: 10-2 Under at home off an Under

Cleveland at Cincinnati, 1:00 EST

Cleveland: 13-4 Under in road games

Cincinnati: 18-33 ATS in September

Buffalo at Miami, 1:00 EST

Buffalo: 13-4 Over off an ATS win

Miami: 2-10 ATS vs. division opponents

Detroit at Chicago, 1:00 EST

Detroit: 16-9 Under vs. conference opponents

Chicago: 6-0 ATS at home off an Under

Carolina at Minnesota, 1:00 EST

Carolina: 7-0 ATS away off a loss as a favorite

Minnesota: 8-1 Under at home off an ATS win

NY Giants at Philadelphia, 1:00 EST

NY Giants: 17-7 ATS after gaining 400+ total yards

Philadelphia: 16-6 Under as a favorite

Tampa Bay at Atlanta, 1:00 EST

Tampa Bay: 24-4 Under first two weeks of the season

Atlanta: 0-7 ATS off a win by 14+ points

New Orleans at Green Bay, 1:00 EST

New Orleans: 2-9 ATS vs. conference opponents

Green Bay: 30-14 Over after scoring 14 points or less

St. Louis at San Francisco, 4:05 EST

St. Louis: 11-29 ATS away off an Under

San Francisco: 18-8 ATS vs. St. Louis

Arizona at Seattle, 4:05 EST

Arizona: 9-0 Over as a road underdog of 7 points or less

Seattle: 9-25 ATS as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points

New England at NY Jets, 4:15 EST

New England: 6-1 Over off a win by 6 points or less

NY Jets: 6-17 ATS at home in September

Tennessee at San Diego, 4:15 EST

Tennessee: 5-14 ATS off an Over

San Diego: 14-3 ATS off a win by 21+ points

Kansas City at Denver, 4:15 EST

Kansas City: 19-8 Under first two weeks of the season

Denver: 19-7 ATS first two weeks of the season

Washington at Dallas, 8:15 EST NBC

Washington: 14-2 Under off an ATS loss

Dallas: 10-4 ATS at home vs. Washington

** (TC) Denotes Time Change

Monday, September 18th

Pittsburgh at Jacksonville, 8:30 EST ESPN

Pittsburgh: 8-1 Under away off an Over

Jacksonville: 7-0 ATS in September

** (TC) Denotes Time Change

NFL Week 2 Trends September 11, 2006

Newcomers to Las Vegas sports betting parlors frequently inquire how they can determine which team is the home team. The normal response is that the home team is on the bottom.

During the first Sunday of the NFL regular season there were more than a few home teams that ended up on the bottom.

Visiting teams won nine of 13 on opening day and night and came away with the cash in 10 of 13. The only hosts to get the money were Detroit, Jacksonville and St. Louis. Five 'homers' failed to score a touchdown, including the victorious Rams who kicked six field goals.

Favorite bettors beat the pants of the bookmakers last season, but dog players held sway in Week 1. Underdogs got the money in nine of 13, though home pups were only 3-4.

Total players who leaned toward the 'under' had a banner opening day, with 10 of 13 tussles slipping below the number.

The second week of the season features several home teams that will be prohibitive favorites. Take a look at trends and angles on those games and the rest of the NFL schedule below.

RAIDERS at RAVENS

Oakland has been a poor investment in an underdog role, failing to cash 26 of its last 39. Conversely, Baltimore is 16-7-1 as a home favorite and 11-3 as the chalk at M&T Bank Stadium. The Raiders have also failed to cash 26 of their last 34 conference battles. They have lost and failed in five straight on artificial turf as well. The Ravens have slipped 'under' in 13 of 18 versus teams from the AFC-West. Oakland has knuckled 'under' in five straight outings on phony grass.

TEXANS at COLTS

Indianapolis will be shooting for its ninth straight win versus Houston. However, the Colts have only managed to split their last eight series spread decisions. Indianapolis has 'covered' 10 of its last dozen during the first month. The last three encounters at the RCA Dome have eclipsed the total. The Colts have been on the low side in five of six as favorites of seven to 13 points.

BROWNS at BENGALS

Cincinnati has won three straight versus Cleveland (2-1 against the spread). The Bengals have fallen short in seven of their last 10 as home favorites and in 12 of 17 ATS at home overall. The Browns are 10-3 ATS on the road when the total is between 38-1/2 and 42. Cleveland has topped the total in five straight on the road against a division opponent with revenge on its plate.

BILLS at DOLPHINS

Buffalo has won three of four versus Miami and 'covered' four straight. The Dolphins have failed in 13 of 15 as home favorites. Three of the last four series scrapes have been on the high side. Miami has zipped 'over' in six of eight when favored over the Bills. However, Buffalo has dipped 'under' in eight of its last nine as division road dogs.

LIONS at BEARS

Chicago has cashed three straight against Detroit after coming up short in four of its previous five opportunities. The Bears are 6-2-1 in their last nine as favorites. The Lions have cashed nine of their last 13 as road dogs. Chicago has slipped 'under' in 12 of 17 at home. Detroit has been on the low side in 10 of 15 on grass and in 13 of 18 versus division rivals.

PANTHERS at VIKINGS

Carolina has 'covered' 22 of its last 30 on the highway, getting the money in eight of 11 last year. The Panthers have won and cashed three straight versus Minnesota. They have also grabbed the cheese in eight of 10 off a home loss.

GIANTS at EAGLES

Philadelphia will be looking to avenge a pair of SU and ATS losses at the hands of the New York Giants last season. The Eagles are 15-4 ATS seeking revenge for a close loss by seven points or less. New York has stumbled in 10 of its last 14 on grass ATS. The Giants are 24-11 ATS after out-rushing their previous opponent by 75 or more yards.

BUCS at FALCONS

Tampa Bay has won three straight against Atlanta (2-0-1 ATS). The Bucs bounced back to 'cover' four of six as dogs in 2005 after posting a 2-7-1 mark in that role during 2004. The Falcons are 4-8-1 ATS recently versus division opposition. Tampa Bay has dipped 'under' in eight of 10 as road dogs of five points or more.

SAINTS at PACKERS

Green Bay has floundered in 10 of its last 14 as home favorites and in 13 of 18 at Lambeau Field overall. New Orleans is 5-14 ATS coming off a road win. The Packers are 4-12 ATS following a loss by 10 points or more.

RAMS at 49ERS

San Francisco has 'covered' three straight versus St. Louis, sweeping the season series in 2005, both SU and ATS. The Rams have dropped 13 of 17 as road favorites and failed to cash 11 of their last 16 in September. They are also 6-15 ATS following a non-conference contest.

CARDS at SEAHAWKS

Seattle has won six of seven and cashed five of seven against Arizona. The Seahawks got the money in eight of 10 at home last season. The Cardinals have dropped 16 of their last 22 as road dogs and failed to get the green in 12 of their last 17 in September. The last four series shootouts have eclipsed the total. Arizona has been on the high side in 12 of 13 as road dogs of seven points or less. The Cards have also zipped 'over' in six of seven before playing the Rams. Seattle has blown 'over' at a 12-2 clip as favorites of six points or more.

PATRIOTS at JETS

New England has 'covered' seven straight against the New York Jets at the Meadowlands (6-1 SU). The Patriots have also won the last six series encounters overall (5-1 ATS). New England is 14-4 ATS on artificial turf. The Patriots have cashed nine of their last 13 as road favorites and 29 of 42 as the chalk overall.

TITANS at CHARGERS

Tennessee has suspect credentials on the road. The Titans have failed to get the money in 11 of their last 16 on the highway, in eight of their last dozen on grass and in nine of 13 as road short-enders. San Diego has ducked 'under' in six of its last seven when favored by double-digits.

CHIEFS at BRONCOS

Denver has won and 'covered' five straight against Kansas City at Invesco Field. Eight of the last nine series confrontations have been on the high side. The Broncos have jumped the number in 21 of 26 at home when it was between 42 1/2 and 45. Denver has been on the low side in four of its last five at home versus division rivals.

SKINS at COWBOYS

Washington won and 'covered' both 2005 meetings with Dallas. The Redskins are 21-4 as road dogs of 3 1/2 to seven points and they have cashed 12 of their last 18 as short-enders on the highway overall. The Cowboys have cashed 11 of 15 following a road setback. The last three clashes at Texas Stadium have knuckled 'under.' Washington has gone 'under' in 16 of its last 19 as division dogs.

STEELERS at JAGUARS

Jacksonville looks to snap a four-game 'cover' skid on Monday Night Football and extend its three-game ATS winning streak versus Pittsburgh. The Steelers have 'covered' nine of 12 as underdogs and 18 of 27 on the road. The Jaguars are 14-5 ATS during the first two weeks of the season.

posted by phantom

Sept. 15 2006 5:55pm
0 likes

Sunday, September 17th

Oakland at Baltimore

OAK is 9-23 ATS L3 years... OAK is 9-21 ATS L3 years on grass... OAK is 4-12 ATS L16 road games... OAK is 4-2-1 ATS L7 road openers... OAK is 7-1-1 ATS L9 before bye week... BAL is 3-0 L3 at OAK... BAL is 12-4 ATS at home L16... BAL is 5-3-2 ATS L10 home openers... BAL is 8-4 ATS L12 as home favorites. The total is 6-2 to the UNDER L8 home games.

Houston at Indianapolis

HOU is 0-5 ATS L5 on turf... HOU is 7-17 ATS vs. conference foes L24... HOU is 0-3 ATS in dome games L3... HOU is 1-3 ATS L4 road openers... HOU is 2-8-1 ATS L11 off double-digit ATS loss... The total is 13-6 to the UNDER L19 road games... IND is 17-3 ATS on turf... IND is 15-3 ATS at home L18... IND is 8-0 ATS L8 vs. HOU... IND is 6-0 ATS before JAC (9/24)... IND is 4-6 ATS L10 home openers. The total is 6-1 to the UNDER L7 games.

Cleveland at Cincinnati

CLE is 3-9 ATS vs. division foes L12 games... CLE is 0-6 ATS on turf L6... CLE is 3-13 ATS L16 road games... CLE is 4-2 ATS L6 road openers... The total is 6-1 to the UNDER L7 road games... CIN is 3-1 ATS L4 vs. CLE... CIN is 11-7 ATS L18 on turf... CIN is 2-7 ATS L9 home openers... CIN is 5-15 ATS L20 vs. division foes. The total is 12-5 to the UNDER L17 home games.

Buffalo at Miami

BUF is 3-1 ATS L4 vs. MIA... BUF is 13-2 ATS in 2nd game of the season... BUF is 11-1 ATS L12 after NEP... BUF is 9-2 ATS off SU division loss... The total is 5-1 to the OVER L6 games... MIA is 4-2 ATS L6 home openers... MIA is 4-6 ATS L10 home games... MIA is 19-11 ATS L30 games vs. AFCN, AFCS, AFCW. The total is 9-4 to the OVER L13 home games.

Detroit at Chicago

DET is 3-9 ATS L12 vs. division foes... DET is 5-11 ATS L16 road games... DET is 3-7 ATS L10 on grass... DET is 1-4 ATS L5 road openers... The total is 6-2 to the UNDER L8 games... CHI is 3-9 ATS L12 vs. division foes... CHI is 3-0 ATS L3 vs. DET... CHI is 1-3 ATS L4 home openers... The total is 5-0 to the UNDER L5 home games.

Carolina at Minnesota

CAR is 12-7 ATS L19 road games... CAR is 3-1 ATS L4 dome games... CAR is 4-1 ATS L5 on turf... CAR is 5-1 ATS L6 road openers... The total is 4-1 to the UNDER at MIN... MIN is 0-3 ATS L3 vs. CAR... MIN is 2-5 ATS L7 home openers... MIN is 14-7 ATS L21 in dome games... MIN is 1-3 the first 2 weeks of season. The total is 10-4 to the UNDER L14 at home.

Ny Giants at Philadelphia

NYG is 1-5 ATS L6 vs. PHI NYG is 0-4 ATS L4 at PHI NYG is 5-2 ATS L7 road openers... NYG is 6-9 ATS L15 road games... The total is 5-2 to the OVER L7 at PHI... PHI is 13-5 ATS L18 home games... PHI is 3-1 ATS L4 in home openers... PHI is 0-6 SU & 1-5 ATS L6 vs. NFC East.. PHI is 7-3 SU & 3-7 ATS L10 as favorites... The total is 4-1 to the OVER L5 home games.

Tampa Bay at Atlanta

TAM is 6-10 ATS L16 road games... TAM is 10-5 ATS L15 vs. ATL... TAM is 6-2 ATS L8 in ATL... TAM is 3-1 ATS L4 in road openers... The total is 8-1 to the UNDER L9 road games... ATL is 14-6 ATS L20 dome games... ATL is 5-2 ATS L7 home openers... ATL is 2-7-1 ATS L10 in week 2... ATL is 6-3-1 ATS L10 as favorites... The total is 7-2 to the OVER L9 at home vs. TAM.

New Orleans at Green Bay

NOS is 0-5 ATS L5 vs. NFC North... NOS is 7-17 ATS L24 vs. conference foes... NOS is 4-3 ATS L7 as road favorites... NOS is 0-5 SU & 0-4-1 ATS L5 vs. NFC North... The total is 5-1 to the OVER L6 vs. GB... GB is 6-0 ATS L6 vs. NFC South... GB is 5-1 ATS L6 vs. NOS... GB is 3-0 ATS L3 at home vs. NOS... GB is 1-3 ATS L4 as home underdogs. The total is 5-1 to the UNDER L6 home games.

St. Louis at San Francisco

STL is 6-12 ATS L18 road games... STL is 1-4 ATS L5 at SAN STL is 0-5-1 ATS L6 road openers... The total is 5-1 to the UNDER L6 games... SAN is 5-24 ATS L29 games on grass... SAN is 4-12 ATS L16 home games... SAN is 10-4 ATS L14 at home vs. STL... SAN is 3-0 ATS L3 home openers... Underdog is 4-1 ATS in this series. The total is 10-4 to the OVER L14 home games.

Arizona at Seattle

ARI is 0-5 ATS L5 vs. divisional foe... ARI is 1-3 ATS L4 road openers... ARI is 0-4 ATS L4 before STL (9/24)... The total is 12-2 to the OVER L14 road games... SEA is 2-10 ATS at home vs. division opponent... SEA is 3-0 ATS L3 home openers... SEA is 15-4 ATS L19 at home... SEA is 3-1 ATS L4 vs. ARI.... The total is 4-1 to the OVER L5 vs. ARI.

New England at Ny Jets

NEP is 12-6 ATS L18 road games... NEP is 7-3 ATS L10 vs. divisional foe... NEP is 7-0 ATS L7 at NYJ... NEP is 6-3 ATS L9 road openers... The total is 6-2 to the OVER L8 road games... NYJ is 10-6 ATS L16 home games. Host (NYJ) in series is 2-12 ATS L14 NYJ is 2-8 ATS L10 home openers... The total is 5-0 to the OVER L5 games.

Tennessee at San Diego

TEN is 0-5 ATS L5 vs. AFC West... TEN is 4-12 ATS L16 road games... TEN is 3-1 ATS L4 at SDC... TEN is 1-5 ATS L6 road openers... The total is 4-1 to the UNDER L5 road games... SDC is 8-2 ATS at home vs. < .500 opponents... SDC is 0-3 ATS L3 home openers under Schottenheimer... SDC is 1-4 ATS L5 after MNF... SDC is 4-1 L5 vs. AFC South... The total is 5-1 to the UNDER L6 home games.

Kansas City at Denver

KAN is 6-10 ATS L16 road games... KAN is 0-5 ATS L6 at DEN... Visitor (KAN) in series is 0-5 ATS L5... KAN is 5-1 ATS L6 road openers... The total is 4-1 to the UNDER L5 games. DEN is 21-9 ATS L30 games on grass... Host (DEN) in series is 8-1-1 ATS L10... DEN is 5-0-1 ATS L6 home openers... The total is 4-1 to the OVER L5 vs. KAN.

Washington at Dallas

WAS is 3-1 ATS L4 on turf... WAS is 17-9 ATS L26 vs. conference foes... WAS is 1-5 ATS after MNF... WAS is 3-5 ATS L8 road openers... The total is 11-5 to the UNDER L16 road games... DAL is 9-7 ATS L16 home games... DAL is 12-2 ATS L14 vs. WAS... DAL is 5-3 ATS L8 home openers... The total is 4-1 to the UNDER L5 at home vs. WAS.

Monday, September 18th

Pittsburgh at Jacksonville

PIT is 16-3 ATS L19 road games... PIT is 4-2 ATS L6 vs. AFC South... PIT is 0-4 ATS L4 as road favorites on MNF... PIT is 21-14 ATS on MNF... The total is 5-1 to the UNDER L6 at JAC... JAC is 4-1 ATS L5 vs. AFC North... JAC is 6-3 ATS L9 vs. PIT... JAC is 8-1 ATS L9 at home vs. PIT JAC is 0-4 ATS L4 on MNF... v is 4-0 to the OVER L4 on MNF.

posted by phantom

Sept. 15 2006 5:57pm
0 likes

Gator Report

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Gator's News and Notes

We thought we would take a look at some key angles for this weekends premier NFL Matchups. We hope that this information helps you find that winning angle to increase your bankroll. Here we go....

TEXANS at COLTS

Indianapolis will be looking for their ninth straight win versus Houston. However, the Colts have only managed to split their last eight series spread decisions. Indianapolis has 'covered' 10 of its last 12 during the first month. The last three at the RCA Dome have gone over the total. The Colts have fallen under the posted total in five of six as favorites of seven to 13 points.

BROWNS at BENGALS

Cincinnati has won three straight versus Cleveland (2-1 against the number). Bengals have failed in seven of their last 10 as home favorites and in 12 of 17 ATS at home overall. Cleveland is 10-3 ATS on the road when the total is between 38-1/2 and 42. Cleveland has flown over the posted total in five straight on the road against a division opponent when playing with revenge.

PANTHERS at VIKINGS

Carolina has 'covered' 22 of its last 30 on the highway, getting the cash in eight of 11 last season. Carolina has won and covered three straight versus Minnesota. They have also cashed the winning ticket in eight of 10 off a home loss.

GIANTS at EAGLES

Philadelphia will be looking to avenge a pair of SU and ATS losses at the hands of the New York Giants last season. The Eagles are 15-4 ATS seeking revenge for a close loss by seven points or less. New York has stumbled in 10 of its last 14 on grass ATS. The Giants are 24-11 ATS after out-rushing their previous opponent by 75 or more yards.

BUCS at FALCONS

Tampa Bay has won three straight against Atlanta (2-0-1 ATS). The Bucs bounced back to 'cover' four of six as dogs in 2005 after posting a 2-7-1 mark in that role during 2004. The Falcons are 4-8-1 ATS recently versus division opposition. Tampa Bay has dipped 'under' in eight of 10 as road dogs of five points or more.

CARDS at SEAHAWKS

Seattle has won six of seven and cashed five of seven against Arizona. The Seahawks cashed the ticket in eight of 10 at home last season. The Cardinals have dropped 16 of their last 22 as road dogs and failed to get the money in 12 of their last 17 in September. The last four in this series have gone over the total. Arizona has been on the high side in 12 of 13 as road dogs of seven points or less. The Cards have also flew 'over' in six of seven before playing the Rams. Seattle has sailed at a 12-2 clip as favorites of six points or more.

CHIEFS at BRONCOS

Denver has won and 'covered' five straight against Kansas City at Invesco Field. Eight of the last nine in this series have been on the high side. The Broncos have gone over the total in 21 of 26 at home when it was between 42 1/2 and 45. Denver has been on the low side in four of its last five at home versus division rivals.

PATRIOTS at JETS

New England has 'covered' seven straight against the New York Jets at the Meadowlands (6-1 SU). The Patriots have also won the last six series encounters overall (5-1 ATS). New England is 14-4 ATS on artificial turf. The Patriots have cashed nine of their last 13 as road favorites and 29 of 42 as the chalk overall.

posted by phantom

Sept. 15 2006 6:01pm
0 likes

Dr. BOB

3 Star Selection

***UNDER (42 1/2)

NY Giants 16 PHILADELPHIA (-3.0) 14

10:00 AM Pacific, 17-Sep-06The Giants played great last week in their unfortunate loss to the

Colts, as

they gained

433 total yards at 7.1 yards per play while limiting the potent Colts'

attack to just

327 yards at 5.2 yppl. That was the sort of performance that I had

expected,

but I

didn't expect them to lose the game. The Giants have a pretty good

chance to

even their

record today even though I think the Eagles are an underrated team.

Both of

these teams

are equally good defensively (I rate both units at 0.4 yppl better than

average) but I

rate the Giants' offense at 0.4 yppl better than average while the

Eagles

rate at 0.2

yppl better than average offensively. Philadelphia has an advantage in

projected

turnovers (McNabb is among the all-time leaders in lowest interception

percentage) and I

give them a slight edge in special teams. Overall I favor the Eagles by

3 Ã‚Â½

points,

which is what the line on this game opened at. The reason for favoring

the

Giants to win

is a 70-29-5 ATS statistical match-up indicator that favors the Giants,

but

I'll resist

making New York a Best Bet since Philadelphia is 69-43-3 ATS under

coach

Andy Reid in

all games when not favored by more than 9 points, including 37-14-1 ATS

against a team

coming off a loss.

The play on this game in on the UNDER. My ratings predict a total of 38

Ã‚Â½

points and

this game applies to a very good 91-34-4 week 2 UNDER situation. I'll

play

the Giants-

Eagles UNDER 40 points or higher for 3-Stars and I'll Downgrade the

UNDER to

a 2-Star if

the total drops between 38 and 39 Ã‚Â½ points.

2 Star Selection

**Buffalo 20 MIAMI (-6.5) 18

10:00 AM Pacific, 17-Sep-06The Bills beat me last week partially due to a scoring a touchdown on

the

Patriots'

first offensive play via a fumble recovery, but Buffalo played very

competitively with

the Pats from the line of scrimmage (4.8 yards per play to 5.0 yppl for

New

England) and

should also be able to compete with the Dolphins this week. I still

rate the

Bills at

0.5 yppl worse than average on offense and their defense is now 0.1

yppl

worse than

average with star LB Takeo Spikes likely to sit this one out with a

hamstring injury he

suffered last week. Miami's offense moved the ball at about the rate I

expected in their

loss at Pittsburgh and their attack still rates at 0.1 yppl better than

average. The

defense, however, allowed mediocre backup quarterback Charlie Batch to

average 7.0 yards

per pass play and I now rate the Dolphins' defense at just 0.1 yppl

better

than average.

Buffalo has an edge in special teams and the sum of all the parts

favors

Miami by 7

points - which is where this game opened. The reason for this play is a

number of very

good situations and indicators that favor the Bills. Buffalo applies to

a

very strong 70-

29-5 ATS early season statistical match-up indicator and a 38-9-2 ATS

week 2

road bounce-

back situation. Miami, meanwhile, applies to a 30-70-3 ATS game 2

negative

momentum

situation and the Dolphins are just 1-11 ATS in their last 12 games as

a

favorite (1-3

ATS under coach Saban).

I'll take Buffalo in a 2-Star Best Bet at +5 points or more and I'll

Upgrade

the Bills

to a 3-Star Best Bet at +7 points or higher.

3 Star Selection

***Washington 21 DALLAS (-6.0) 17

05:15 PM Pacific, 17-Sep-06I mentioned last week that Dallas appears to be an overrated team and

my

ratings favored

Jacksonville by 4 Ã‚Â½ points (I pass on the Jags as a Best Bet because of

an

angle that

favored Dallas). The Cowboys actually played well from a yards per play

perspective (5.8

yppl to 4.7 yppl) but turnovers did them in. Washington lost a close

game to

the Vikings

last week but that loss sets them up in a 38-9-2 ATS game 2 bounce-back

situation.

Dallas, meanwhile, applies to a negative 30-70-3 ATS game 2 situation

and

the record is

24-4 ATS (favoring Jacksonville) when both of those situations favor

the

same team.

Dallas actually has an advantage on both sides of the ball, but

Redskins'

quarterback

Mark Brunell throws far few interceptions than the Cowboys' Drew

Bledsoe

does.

Washington may be without CB Shawn Springs for a second straight week

and

the Redskins'

pass defense goes from very good to just average without him. I still

favor

Dallas by

just 4 points even after making that adjustment for Springs being out,

so

the Redskins

look like a very good play with a combination of line value and strong

technical

support.

I'll take Washington in a 3-Star Best Bet at +6 points or more and for

2-Stars from +5 Ã‚Â½

to +4 points.

Strong Opinions and Possible Best Bets

UNDER Oakland at Baltimore

BALTIMORE (-11 Ã‚Â½) 19 Oakland 9Who's going to want to be on Oakland after watching the Raiders get

dominated 27-0 by

the Chargers on national TV last Monday, especially when facing a

Ravens

team that is

coming off a 27-0 win at Tampa Bay? I'm not going to bank on the

Raiders

bouncing back,

but there is line value in going with the unwanted Raiders this week.

Oakland isn't as

bad as they looked last Monday, just as Baltimore is not as good as

they

looked, and my

updated ratings favor the Ravens by only 9 Ã‚Â½ points with a total of 35

Ã‚Â½

points.

Baltimore is 29-12-2 ATS as a home favorite under coach Brian Billick,

so

his teams

don't have a history of letting down against bad teams. However, the

Raiders

apply to a

26-9-1 ATS week 2 road underdog bounce back situation that is based on

their

horrible

performance last week. I'll lean with the Raiders and I'll consider the

UNDER a Strong

Opinion</b> based on a 91-34-4 UNDER situation. Upgrade the UNDER to a

2-Star Best Bet

if the total goes back up to 35 points or higher.

UNDER Tampa Bay at Atlanta

ATLANTA (-5.5) 17 Tampa Bay 14

10:00 AM Pacific, 17-Sep-06

The Buccaneers looked horrible last week in a 0-27 loss to the Ravens

while

Atlanta was

beating up on the Panthers 20-6 in Carolina. Tampa Bay is bad offensive

team

that I rate

at 0.6 yards per play worse than average and Atlanta's defense is 0.3

yppl

better than

average when fully healthy. However, the Falcons may be without big

play

defensive ends

Patrick Kearny and John Abraham this week, as both suffered injuries in

last

week's win.

Those two would combine to tally at least 20 sacks and Abraham has 2

last

week in his

NFC Defensive Player of the Week effort. Run stopping linebacker Ed

Hartwell

is already

out and I'd rate the Falcons' defense at 0.3 yppl worse than average if

both

Kearny and

Abraham don't play (both are listed as questionable). Atlanta's offense

averaged a solid

5.6 yppl last week and they rate at 0.2 yppl better than average and

should

have decent

success against a Tampa Bay defense that is also 0.2 yppl better than

average. That unit

played pretty well in holding the Ravens to 4.7 yppl last week and

they'll

have to play

well again to carry a bad offensive unit. Overall, my ratings favor

Atlanta

by 9 points

with a total of 37 points if both Kearny and Abraham play for the

Falcons,

but the math

favors them by just 6 points with a total of 39 points without both

star

defensive ends.

I'll lean with Tampa Bay regardless on the basis of a negative 17-54-2

ATS

letdown

situation that applies to Atlanta and is based on last week's upset

win.

Tampa Bay,

meanwhile, applies to a 24-4 ATS game 2 bounce-back situation. Atlanta

has

also been an

inconsistent team under coach Mora, as they are just 5-12-1 ATS the

week

following a

victory.

I'll consider Tampa Bay a Strong Opinion at +5 points or more if both

Kearny

and Abraham

are downgraded to doubtful or out.

I also have a Strong Opinion on the Under based on a very good 91-34-4

week

2 UNDER

situation, and I'll make the UNDER to a 2-Star Best Bet at 35 points or

higher if both

Kearny and Abraham are upgraded to probable or better (both are listed

as

questionable).

I'll also go UNDER 38 points or higher for 2-Stars regardless of the

injury

situation.

JACKSONVILLE 20 Pittsburgh (-1.5) 16

05:30 PM Pacific, 18-Sep-06

I rate the Steelers as the best team in the NFL but they are not in a

good

spot here

against a good opponent playing at home on Monday night. Pittsburgh won

as

expected last

week even without quarterback Ben Roethlisberger, but he's returning

this

week after

recovering from an appendectomy. With Roethlisberger at the helm the

Steelers rate at

0.5 yppl better than average on offense and they are even better

defensively

(0.6 yppl

better than average). Jacksonville wasn't nearly as good last season as

their 12-4

record would indicate and I rate them only slightly better than average

this

season.

However, the Jaguars apply to a 58-19-2 ATS Monday night home team

situation

that is 20-

4 ATS when applying to a home underdog. The situation isn't strong

enough to

merit

giving up line value and my ratings favor Pittsburgh by 3 points in

this

game. However,

I'll consider Jacksonville a Strong Opinion at +1 or more and I'll

Upgrade

the Jaguars

to a 2-Star Best Bet at +3 points or more.

posted by phantom

Sept. 15 2006 6:01pm

Post a Reply

You must login to post a reply.

Welcome to Got Picks!

We are a community of sports handicappers and betting degenerates. Some of us post plays and others just follow. We all try to make some money while having fun.

Existing user? Sign In New to Got Picks? Sign Up