Tuesday, June 13th
NBA Finals
Game Three
TV: ABC
Dallas Leads, 2-0
Dallas at Miami, 9:00 EST
Dallas:
27-11 ATS as an underdog
18-8 ATS off BB home games
Miami:
11-22 ATS playing their second game in five days
0-7 ATS vs. Dallas
Dallas at Miami
Tuesday June 13th, 8:30 ET
The Miami Heat return home for Game 3 of the NBA Finals Tuesday night. Shaq and Company are not even in the series as they hoped to be but down 2-0 after failing to win either of the first two games in Dallas. Not only did they fail to win but they played worse in Game 2 than they did in Game 1.
The series opener Thursday night was all about Jason Terry. The Dallas point guard scored 32 points on 13-of-18 shooting on a night when Dirk Nowitzki struggled from the field. The Mavs' MVP candidate scored 16 points and was 4-of-14 from the field but thanks to Terry and Jerry Stackhouse the Mavericks were able to overcome an 11-point first half deficit and record the win. The Mavs covered after closing as a five-point chalk and the game stayed well under the total of 195.
Then came Sunday and the Mavs built a decisive two-game lead in the series on the strength of a 99-85 win. Jerry Stackhouse had 19 points and Josh Howard 15 -- and both converted four-point plays during the decisive runs in the win. Nowitzki shook off his Game 1 jitters to get 26 points and 16 rebounds for the Mavericks. The Mavericks started slowly and were beset by turnovers early but then went on a 27-6 second quarter run to build a 50-34 halftime lead.
From there the lead grew to 26 points, 82-56, after three quarters before Miami cut into the lead some in the fourth quarter with Shaquille O'Neal and Dwyane Wade on the bench. Dallas shot .486 for the game (34-of-70), outrebounded the Heat 46-32 and hit 8-of-19 from three-point range.
For Miami O'Neal and Wade struggled for the second straight game. O'Neal went 2-of-5 from the field and 1-of-7 from the line for five points. Wade shot 6-of-19 from the field but did go 11-of-14 from the line to finish with 23 points. As a team the Heat shot 29-of-70 (.414) and was 7-of-17 from three-point range. It also lost Udonis Haslem to a shoulder injury.
In Game 1 O'Neal finished with 17 points on 8-of-11 shooting and went 1-for-9 from the foul line. Wade scored 28 points on 11-of-25 shooting and had his own woes from the line, going 6-for-10. The rest of the team never got to the line at all on a night when the Heat shot .436 from the field (34-of-78) and 5-of-20 from three-point range.
The series opened in Dallas due to the Mavericks having a better regular season record than the Heat. The next three games, if necessary, will be in Miami and then Games 6 and 7 would be in Dallas. Games will be played on Tuesdays, Thursdays, and Sunday with Game 7 then, if necessary, being in Dallas on Thursday, June 22.
Before opening against the Heat on Thursday the Mavericks were last in action the previous Saturday when they closed out the Phoenix Suns on the road 102-93. The Mavericks took six games to dispose of the Suns after going seven in the previous round versus San Antonio and finishing that series off with a road win in Game 7. The Mavericks swept the Memphis Grizzlies in four rounds in Game 1 so have played 19 playoff games thus far, going 14-5 S/U and ATS. The Mavs have won seven of their nine road playoff games, going 8-1 ATS in the process.
Miami had been off a day longer than Dallas before beginning the Finals: it disposed of Detroit a week ago Friday at home 95-78 to win its series with the Pistons four-games-to-two. The Heat went five games in their previous series with New Jersey and six in the opening round versus the Bulls. So the Heat have also played 19 playoff games and are 12-7 S/U in those and 10-8-1 ATS. At home Miami is 8-1 straight-up and 5-3-1 ATS.
This year Dallas finished with the second-best record in the Western Conference and third best in the NBA at 60-22. Miami finished the regular season with a record of 52-30. It was 21-20 on the road. Two of its losses came against Dallas, with the first occurring at home early in the season, November 25 to be exact. Dallas won 103-90 as a one-point road chalk, shot 50% from the field, hit 8-of-15 from the filed and 21-of-24 free throws and outrebounded the Heat 48-46.
Loss #2 was in Dallas February 9 and the Heat credit this lopsided defeat for them turning their season around and becoming a different team. The final was 112-76 Mavericks who covered easily as a 4.5-point chalk. They shot 56.2% from the field, hit 11-of-16 three's, hardly needed to go to the line (11-of-13) and won the battle of the boards 46-39. Dallas is 7-1 straight-up and ATS its last eight with Miami. On the road it is 2-1 versus the Heat and 3-0 ATS.
The contest opened with the Heat favored by 4.5 points with a total of 189.
NBA Finals
Right now, with NBA Finals in Miami for three games, the deal is pretty siimple; Shaq gets doubled constantly, so if the player whose man doubles Shaq can't create a play that leads to hoop (Wade's man won't double) then the Heat are dead, and Riley is no smarter than Stan Van Gundy. Right now, the other players for Miami aren't getting it done, and Haslem has a bum shoulder, so defending Dirk gets even dicier. Mavericks have won six of their last seven games, are playing with supreme confidence. in a million years, never would have thought that Erick Dampier is a key player in Dallas winning an NBA title, but he has been
Pro Basketball Trend Report
DALLAS (74 - 27) at MIAMI (64 - 37) - 6/13/2006, 9:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MIAMI is 106-83 ATS (+14.7 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
MIAMI is 82-62 ATS (+13.8 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
MIAMI is 21-8 ATS (+12.2 Units) in home games on Tuesday nights over the last 3 seasons.
MIAMI is 17-4 ATS (+12.6 Units) in home games after 3 or more consecutive unders over the last 3 seasons.
MIAMI is 39-20 ATS (+17.0 Units) after scoring 85 points or less over the last 3 seasons.
MIAMI is 32-14 ATS (+16.6 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
DALLAS is 53-45 ATS (+3.5 Units) in all games this season.
DALLAS is 27-11 ATS (+14.9 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
DALLAS is 55-40 ATS (+11.0 Units) in road games over the last 2 seasons.
DALLAS is 155-111 ATS (+32.9 Units) after a non-conference game since 1996.
DALLAS is 153-114 ATS (+27.6 Units) in non-conference games since 1996.
DALLAS is 37-21 ATS (+13.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
DALLAS is 43-30 ATS (+10.0 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
DALLAS is 104-73 ATS (+23.7 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game since 1996.
MIAMI is 46-53 ATS (-12.3 Units) in all games this season.
MIAMI is 11-20 ATS (-11.0 Units) after a non-conference game this season.
Head-to-Head Series History
DALLAS is 7-1 against the spread versus MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
DALLAS is 7-1 straight up against MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
4 of 8 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
Dunkel Index - NBA Playoffs
Tuesday, June 13
Game 505-506: Dallas at Miami
Dunkel Ratings: Dallas 126.9; Miami 127.6
Dunkel Line & Total: Miami by 1; 183 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Miami by 4; 188
Dunkel Pick: Dallas (+4); Under
Join thousands of sports handicappers sharing expert picks, proven strategies, and insider insights. Whether you're posting your analysis or following top performers, our community helps you make smarter betting decisions and potentially increase your profits.