NSA GOY:

Per their website: TUESDAY UPDATE: NSA continued it's domination last night, as NSA's World Champion Handicapper won his 20* again on UCONN. There is a huge buzz throughout the country and in Las Vegas today, as NSA's legendary 20* NBA GAME of the YEAR(7-0 100% last 7 years) goes Tonight!!

PORTLAND +9.5

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Sevice Plays and Request for Tuesday

http://www.boxersports.com [boxersports.com]">www.boxersports.com (1* to 5*) -0.20*s

1st losing day in bases due to a tough loss with the chi-sox giving up 6 runs in the btm of the 9th. Lets Spend this Card.

Baseball - 917 Boston Red Sox - C Schilling -1½ -125 ( 1* )

Baseball - 914 Seattle Mariners - J Moyer -120 ( 2* )

Baseball - 915 Detroit Tigers - M Maroth +185 ( 1* )

Baseball - 910 St Louis Cardinals - J Marquis -180 ( 2* )

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Hoosier Sports

2-0 posted plays yesterday

4* Florida -165

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WINONBASEBALL

Season record: 1-4 -3.23 UNITS

PREFACE: One factor in my handicapping involves an extensive analysis of the pitching/batting matchup. Part of my analysis involves studying the critical pitching statistics of Control Rate, HR Rate, Dominance Rate, and Command Ratio, among others, which do not show up in traditional box scores. Rather than expound on these individual stats in my write-ups, I will often refer to them collectively as a pitcher?s ?skill set.? You can rest assured that this analysis is performed on every game, even though I may not specifically refer to them.

All lines from Pinnacle Sports, effective as of 4/6/2004, 11:25:34 PM - PST. Listed pitchers must start.

Three plays for Tuesday:

ATL (ORTIZ) -157 over NYM (Glavine) - 1 UNIT

Ortiz posted some stellar numbers at Turner Field last year: 3.54 ERA, .202 BAA, with a very good HR rate (important considering he likes to work up in the zone). His numbers weren't as good against the Mets, but I still think it's a good matchup for him. The Mets power comes mainly from the right side (except for Floyd), and his BA/OBP/OPS against righties last year were .187/.272/.304. Since Ortiz does walk a lot of batters, limiting HRs are especially key for him. Right handed hitters have been at a slight disadvantage when hitting HRs at Turner Field. Piazza has hit Ortiz well, but the sample size is small (16 ABs), and he has historically struggled against Ortiz-type pitchers. Floyd is the other hitter to be feared in this lineup, and he has hit Ortiz well in only 22 ABs.

Glavine's troubles against his former team has been well publicized. He posted some terrible numbers against them last year, and especially at Turner Field where he had a 15.26 ERA. Even when you subtract Sheffield and Javy Lopez, the numbers aren't good. He's not getting any better, and a shaky bullpen won't help.

UNDER 7.5 SD (PEAVY)/LA (PEREZ) -111 - 1 UNIT

Perez did not fare very well at all against the Padres last year. But that was in only two starts, both of which were in San Diego. At Dodger Stadium, he's a much better pitcher, boasting a much better HR rate, control rate, dominance rate, and command ratio.

Peavy, like Perez, has had a great spring. He had success against the Dodgers last year, and it should continue, as his dominance rate and command ratio have been very good against them.

UNDER 7.5 ANA (COLON)/SEA (MOYER) +117 - 1 UNIT

Moyer has mastered the Angels. Last year, in 43 IP, he had a 1.67 ERA, .226 BAA, and displayed an excellent skill set against them. If you look at the last three years, the numbers still come out pretty similar. Of course, that was without Vladimir and Jose Guillen in the lineup, but his numbers were dominant enough to make me comfortable. Scioscia said he'll probably sit Guillen in this one.

Colon also looked dominating at Safeco last year, although the sample size is much smaller. Safeco Field is accommodating for his flyball tendencies. An excellent pen should pick up when he leaves the game.

PLEASE NOTE: All wagers are recommended for a "base" unit. Thus a side for 1 UNIT at -110 should be considered risking 1.10 UNITS to win 1.00 UNITS, while a team at +110 should be considered risking 1.00 UNITS to win 1.10 UNITS.

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SportsGuru

NBA Freebie for April 6th (going for 7 in a row!)

Free picks are 48-31 (+32.83 units) in 2004. They are currently on a 6-game win streak.

2-unit NBA Freebie for April 6th:

Take Atlanta -2 vs. Philadelphia

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VegasSI

Consensus 20* Houston -2.

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Here is today's selections from http://www.pro-handicapping.com [pro-handicapping.com]">www.pro-handicapping.com

They have a great season last year.

MLB always "Listed Pitchers" unless noted

Most all MLB will be for only 1 or 2 units during the first 2 weeks

Search for the best lines, these here are not the best available

NBA by 6:30 pm et

Baseball:

2 Units on Detroit Tigers +170 (Maroth - L, Batista - R)

2 Units on Baltimore Orioles +170 (Schilling - R, Dubose - L)

2 Units on Tampa Bay Devil Rays +190 (Mussina - R, Zambrano - R)

2 Units on Milwaukee Brewers O 10 -115 (Davis - L, Marquis - R)

2 Units on San Diego Padres O 7½ +100 (Peavy - R, Perez - L)

lay over 7 ONLY

2 Units on New York Yankees O 9½ -120 (Mussina - R, Zambrano - R)

2 Units on Texas Rangers O 8½ -120 (Park - R, Mulder - L)

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Blackchip.com

Tuesday NBA Basketball:

Houston-3 over GOLDEN ST.:

(4* selection)

The slumping Rockets have been bet up from an overnight line of -1 1/2 in this spot, but we do still like Houston to win and cover despite the fact that these teams are going in opposite directions as of late. Houston is basically locked into either the #7 or #8 seed in the West now after losing 8 of their last 11 games SU, but they still lead the NBA in FG% defense at 40.8% compared to a poor 44.5% FG mark for the Warriors that ranks 19th. 34-42 SU Golden St. is also the 2nd worst team in the NBA in 3-point defense (37.8%), and they just put key C Dampier (12.3 ppg. and 12.0 rpg.) on the IL for the rest of the season with an ankle injury. That will make Houston C Y.Ming (17.1 ppg., 9.1 rpg., and 2 blocks pg.) a particularly tough matchup for the Warriors tonight, and the Rockets are still 14-1 SU and 9-6 ATS in their last 15 meetings with Golden St. despite a 90-84 road loss as a similar favorite on Mar.19th. Golden St. is on a very surprising current run of 9-2 SU and 10-1 ATS in their last 11 outings, but we will look for Houston to buck that trend tonight for a strong 4-units in this 7:35pm PT tipoff in Oakland.

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