SATURDAY 6/10/06 IS THE BELMONT
UNLESS SOMETHING CHANGES BY WAY OF SCRATCHES HERE IS WHAT I LIKE FOR THE BELMONT:
1. OH SO AWESOME
2. BLUEGRASS CAT
3. STEPPENWOLFER
WIN/PLACE BETS ON OH SO AWESOME ALONG WITH AN EXACTA AND TRIPLE BOX OF ALL 3 SELECTIONS.
posted by nystrooper
4 replies
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Here are the PPs for the Belmont Stakes -
http://www.drf.com/row/pps/06belmontstakes.pdf [drf.com]">http://www.drf.com/row/pps/06belmontstakes.pdf [drf.com]>
As unattractive as this race is, one of these horses
will win, and another will place, and yet another will
show. Could be a play in here somewhere - and I
will be studying it.
A closer look at the Belmont Stakes
By PAUL MALECKI
Platinum Couple ML 30-1
The only NY-bred seeks initial victory against open company in this Classic event; gray colt has been defeated by double-digit lengths in all 4 open stakes attempts, including a no threat 6th in Bernardini's 113 Beyer Preakness; best career Beyer, a modest 82, came in the Wood Memorial and still saw him come up well short behind Bob and John and Jazil; deserving bomb dons blinkers for the 1st time; siding with others.
Sunriver ML 4-1
Two-time defending Eclipse champ Pletcher has full-brother to champion Ashado heading in the right direction; Florida Derby 3rd to Barbaro was to that point his top lifetime performance but he followed it up with an even bigger effort in game Peter Pan victory; homebred exhibited quality grinding out the win behind slow pace, placing him alongside uncoupled stablemate Bluegrass Cat as the only stakes-winners over the Belmont surface; wet track ability is up for debate, as he's bred nicely for it yet was no factor in the Gulfstream slop; bounce theorists will be skeptical off the solid return; believe a minor award is most likely for improving individual.
Hemingway's Key ML 15-1
2004 Belmont winning trainer Zito (Birdstone) teams up with the rider of last year's winner (Afleet Alex) with the remote 3rd finisher of the Preakness; undefeated in pair of starts at 2, this Florida-bred had very little impact on the Kentucky Derby trail, including wet track Holy Bull flop, and adding blinkers didn't help much in the Lane's End and Lexington; supporters will hope for more contested than expected pace in Belmont renewal in which his 95 last Beyer is just 8 points behind High Finance for top last honors; perhaps he can pick up some late pieces for connections who have succeeded in this event; leaning in another direction.
Bob and John ML 5-1
It's reasonable to expect major rebound from Baffert-trainee (conditioned Point Given to 2001 triumph) who is the lone Grade 1 winner competing in the Belmont; Stonerside Stable homebred showed plenty of talent out West before shipping to Aqueduct for stalk/pounce Wood victory, which also proved he can handle an off track; connections believe the large colt will be quite effective around Belmont's sweeping turns; tactical speed was an important part of all 4 wins and nice trip behind probable pacesetter High Finance could be available to him today; working splendidly at Santa Anita; appears capable of proving Derby debacle wasn't true billing.
High Finance ML 12-1
The Belmont's top last Beyer runner earned that figure in a 1st level local allowance victory over 1-for-5 opponent; lack of seasoning hasn't been as much of an issue as usual on the Triple Crown trail this year (see Bernardini) but colt now is likely asked to make every pole a winning one at demanding 12 furlong distance; grandson of sloppy 1982 victor Conquistador Cielo makes 2-turn and stakes debuts; at least doesn't face much in the way of apparent pace pressure; probably proves a bit vulnerable late.
Oh So Awesome ML 20-1
European transplant is a 1-time winner who may be making initial start on dry dirt in the Belmont; son of 1998 BC Classic winner Awesome Again earned lone triumph on 'heavy' grass in France at a longer distance than any of these have even attempted; not positive how much can be gleaned from U. S. debut in the local slop, when 3rd behind a 6-5 favored winner (Roman Dynasty) who had graduated in previous outing at Gulfstream; treated with Lasix for 1st time for dangerous Team Valor/Jerkens; others seem tad more likely.
Deputy Glitters ML 15-1
Saratoga graduate made name for himself with Tampa Bay upset of 2-5 favored subsequent Derby runnerup Bluegrass Cat yet looms deserving longshot this afternoon; colt by 1997 Travers hero Deputy Commander has not been able to validate that performance, now making it 3 consecutive thrashings when pitted against G1 competition; Prado, who guided Barbaro to Derby victory, has dropped Belmont bombs with Sarava ($142.50 in 2002) and Birdstone ($74 in 2004); runner has not been able to handle a wet surface; not expecting a victory.
Jazil ML 10-1
Shadwell Stable colorbearer acquitted himself nicely to dead-heat for 4th with G1 winner Brother Derek at Churchill; commanded $725K at auction yet hadn't exhibited all that much until fast-closing 2nd to Bob and John in the Big A slop; colt seems as well suited to the 12 furlong distance as any and enters the Belmont on an upswing; 1-2 Wood Memorial finishers, both possessing Seeking the Gold/Deputy Minister 'nick', could well repeat those finishes in this event; consider from bit closer to the pace than he raced in last pair.
Bluegrass Cat ML 3-1
The Run for the Roses runnerup is the only individual whose sire is responsible for a Belmont winner (Storm Cat sired 1994 winner Tabasco Cat); horse for the course is reunited with 2-time defending Eclipse winner Velazquez (returned from injury just last Friday) today; toss uncharacteristic dull try at Keeneland and we're dealing with one of the more consistent Belmont entrants; half to G2 winner Lord of the Game ($539K) needn't be too far off the fractions if they're too slow although he hasn't made a major impression on the Beyer scale and will be favored; seems legitimate contender although can't blame any searching for a bit more value.
Double Galore ML 30-1
Southern California invader ships in to New York 3 weeks after breaking maiden over the money burning King Palm (0-for-9; 4 losses at odds-on); fired a half mile on Tuesday at Hollywood base before making the journey yet this appears a case of too much too soon even against Belmont field lacking the Derby or Preakness winner; will homebred press High Finance, ensuring a decent pace?; interesting that the hood comes back on, as he finished off the board twice while wearing blinkers to begin career; an outsider.
Steppenwolfer ML 9-2
Gray by 2000 runnerup Aptitude (upset by Commendable) has been awaiting the Belmont since picking up pieces for the show in Kentucky; Lawyer Ron (12th in the Derby) proved his nemesis in Arkansas but colt seems more dangerous while gaining experience over longer distances; does incredibly quick 6f breeze last Friday suggest he's ready for breakthrough or perhaps take something out of him?; drew off nicely over an off track on Feb. 3 at Oaklawn; quite interesting.
Sacred Light ML 15-1
Son of 1994 Horse of the Year Holy Bull was Santa Catalina runnerup to Brother Derek but has never crossed the wire 1st in a race (awarded Del Mar diploma via dq); trainer Hofmans, who sent out Touch Gold to thwart Silver Charm's Triple Crown bid in 1997 edition, prepped stretch-runner for the Belmont in n1x vs. elders, a race captured by Nolan's Cat (a distant 3rd behind Afleet Alex as a maiden in last year's Belmont); has flashed late run on occasion yet come up short twice behind Bob and John and draws widest; Espinoza rides as Bejarano lands on Sunriver; more than minor award appears out of reach at this juncture.
posted by drtnapper07
June 8 2006 4:33pm -
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.
Belmont Analysis
Okay, where do we start -
On paper, the two best horses in this field are the #4 - (Bob and John) and
the #2 - (Sunriver) ---- But paper is what we use to wipe our asses with. Plus,
Sunriver at 4-1 morning line and Bob and John at 5-1 is not real good value when
looking at what can happen here.
The race will unfold with the #5-(High Finance) and the #10-(Double Galore) setting a
pretty fast pace. High Finance is the better of these two colts and in many ways resembles Bernardini's
appearance at the Preakness. Could High Finance go wire to wire? In a 12 Furlong Race? You got to be
kidding me? But who knows, it could happen.
The potential problem with Bob and John and Sunriver will be the pace that these two leaders set.
If these two studs try to run just off pace instead of 5-8 lengths back and High Finance blisters a 0:45
and change half mile, there will be some tired colts at the head of the stretch.
Value can be created by this dismal field with double digit sleepers lurking at the end of this two and a
half minute race. Yes, Bluegrass Cat and Steppenwolfer help make this a dismal field.
Enter the #8 - (Jazil) at 10-1 and the #3 - (Hemingway's Key) at 15-1 - Heck, even
consider the #6 - (Oh So Awesome) at 20-1.
When all the front runners go down from exhaustion, I look for one or all three of these colts to finish
the race running.
I must play 8 - 6 - 3 - 5 in some fashion - Exactas/Trifectas
This race could produce a nice $400 or so Exacta, with the Trifecta hitting a few thousand, and the
Superfecta well into the 5 digits.
Good Luck to all.
posted by drtnapper07
June 8 2006 5:39pm -
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HIT THE 2ND AND 3RD HORSE IN THE PREAKNESS A FEW WEEKS AGO POSTED, BUT NO SUCH LUCK BECAUSE OF BARBARO ..HOPE WE BREAK A LEG TOMMORROW, BUT NOT LITERALLY AND HIT THESE WINNERS!!
$20 BUCKS TO WIN ON #3 HEMMINGWAYS KEY 15-1 ODDS
$12 TRIBOX #2,3,4
posted by DeletedUser
June 9 2006 10:48pm -
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#3 Hemingway's Key
#4 Bob & John
#7 Deputy Glitters
#8 Jazil
TriBox and ATB on the #7 Deputy Glitters
posted by wardawg14522
June 10 2006 4:22pm
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