KENTUCKY DERBY PICKS
FOR THE KENTUCKY DERBY I LIKE THE FOLLOWING:
1. SHOWING UP
2. POINT DETERMINED
3. BARBARO
I WILL BE PLAYING A WIN AND PLACE BET ON MY TOP SELECTION OF SHOWING UP. I WILL ALSO PLAY AN EXACTA BOX OF SHOWING UP AND POINT DETERMINED AS WELL AS A TRIPLE BOX OF MY TOP 3 SELECTIONS. MY BIGGEST WAGER WILL BE THE WIN/PLACE BET ON SHOWING UP THOUGH.
IF SOMETHING CHANGES BEFORE SATURDAY I WILL REPOST OTHERWISE I WILL BE STICKING TO THOSE 3 HORSES IN THAT ORDER OF FINISH.
posted by nystrooper
1 replies
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0 likes
(SHARING SOME LOVE,,,NOT MY THOUGHTS, BUT THIS GUY KNOWS HIS STUFF)
Kentucky Derby thoughts
With the Kentucky Derby being run only once a year and limited to 3 year old horses you can look at past winners of the race and determine the similar characteristics of the winners to hopefully point you in the right direction of the winner for this year.
I have 2 different systems that I apply for the Kentucky Derby to narrow the field down so I don't play a horse that according to past performances actually has "no shot".
The first system is the Derby Knock System. If a horse doesn't fit the profile of a certain characteristic he is given 1 or 2 points (knocks) depending on how negatively the effect is.
The characteristics are as follows:
Dosage must be 4 or less
105 Beyer Speed Figure
90 Beyer as 2 year old
Multiple 100+ Beyers
No Double Top Beyer (last 2 races are highest lifetime)
Age 2 = 2 to 7 races
Age 3 = 3 to 5 races
Sharp Last Race (Top 3 or within 4 lengths of winner)
25.2 final 1/4 mile in 1 1/8 prep
Stakes win at 3
Last prep 21-28 days (1pt for 14 days or less)
Running Style (Wire =2 pts, Stalk= 1 pt)
2 Key Prep races (1 prep = 1 pt)
Not a Gelding
Not the Favorite
No Rookie Trainer/Jockey (1 pt each)
Not a new jockey on the horse (1pt)
No high beyer (1pt)
Some positives to reduce the score include:
Previous Derby winning trainer/jockey (-1pt each)
Previous win or in the money finish at Churchill (-1pt each)
When combining the above knock system with the next system, I have been able to leave myself with some good shots to win the Derby.
2002 - War Emblem did not qualify, played Came Home (6th)
2003 - Funny Cide qualified on both systems, had a backup bet on him, main play was Buddy Gil (6th). Eliminated 2nd choice Ten Most Wanted.
2004 - Smarty Jones qualified, had backup bet on him, top play was The Cliff's Edge (5th) also Birdstone qualified who later won the Belmont.
2005- The following horses qualified on both systems
Afleet Alex (6 knocks - 8 angles)
Buzzards Bay (8 knocks - 8 angles)
Sun King (9 knocks - 9 angles)
Andromeda's Hero (8 knocks - 9 angles)
Giacomo (9 knocks - 9 angles)
I played Afleet Alex (3rd) but had a backup bet on Giacomo at 50-1. Used Sun King as 1 of 4 horses on the top spot in the tri over Giacomo and missed a $400,000 trifecta.
This system also eliminated the odds-on favorite Bellamy Road with 16 knocks.
I use 10 knocks as the cutoff and 8 angles in my next system.....
Kentucky Derby thoughts
With the Kentucky Derby being run only once a year and limited to 3 year old horses you can look at past winners of the race and determine the similar characteristics of the winners to hopefully point you in the right direction of the winner for this year.
I have 2 different systems that I apply for the Kentucky Derby to narrow the field down so I don't play a horse that according to past performances actually has "no shot".
The first system is the Derby Knock System. If a horse doesn't fit the profile of a certain characteristic he is given 1 or 2 points (knocks) depending on how negatively the effect is.
The characteristics are as follows:
Dosage must be 4 or less
105 Beyer Speed Figure
90 Beyer as 2 year old
Multiple 100+ Beyers
No Double Top Beyer (last 2 races are highest lifetime)
Age 2 = 2 to 7 races
Age 3 = 3 to 5 races
Sharp Last Race (Top 3 or within 4 lengths of winner)
25.2 final 1/4 mile in 1 1/8 prep
Stakes win at 3
Last prep 21-28 days (1pt for 14 days or less)
Running Style (Wire =2 pts, Stalk= 1 pt)
2 Key Prep races (1 prep = 1 pt)
Not a Gelding
Not the Favorite
No Rookie Trainer/Jockey (1 pt each)
Not a new jockey on the horse (1pt)
No high beyer (1pt)
Some positives to reduce the score include:
Previous Derby winning trainer/jockey (-1pt each)
Previous win or in the money finish at Churchill (-1pt each)
When combining the above knock system with the next system, I have been able to leave myself with some good shots to win the Derby.
2002 - War Emblem did not qualify, played Came Home (6th)
2003 - Funny Cide qualified on both systems, had a backup bet on him, main play was Buddy Gil (6th). Eliminated 2nd choice Ten Most Wanted.
2004 - Smarty Jones qualified, had backup bet on him, top play was The Cliff's Edge (5th) also Birdstone qualified who later won the Belmont.
2005- The following horses qualified on both systems
Afleet Alex (6 knocks - 8 angles)
Buzzards Bay (8 knocks - 8 angles)
Sun King (9 knocks - 9 angles)
Andromeda's Hero (8 knocks - 9 angles)
Giacomo (9 knocks - 9 angles)
I played Afleet Alex (3rd) but had a backup bet on Giacomo at 50-1. Used Sun King as 1 of 4 horses on the top spot in the tri over Giacomo and missed a $400,000 trifecta.
This system also eliminated the odds-on favorite Bellamy Road with 16 knocks.
I use 10 knocks as the cutoff and 8 angles in my next system.....
This Years Results
With only 2 categories left to fill on my knock system (both related to post position for 1 pt each), here is my current list in order for potential victory on Saturday.
A.P. Warrior (2 knocks - 10 angles) **MY PLAY**
Brother Derek (5 knocks - 9 angles)
Jazil (7 knocks - 9 angles)
Barbaro (7 knocks - 9 angles)
Keyed Entry (8 knocks - 8 angles)
Storm Treasure (10 knocks - 9 angles)
Cause To Believe (10 knocks - 8 angles)
Private Vow (10 knocks - 8 angles)
A couple of the last 3 may drop out after the post position draw.
The horses that don't qualify and in my opinion have no chance to win on Saturday (remember this is for WIN only).
Bob and John only 7 angles
Point Determined only 7 angles
Sinister Minister only 6 angles
Sweetnorthernsaint only 6 1/2 angles
Bluegrass Cat only 7 angles
Lawyer Ron only 6 angles
Deputy Glitters 12 knocks and only 6 angles
Steppenwolfer 12 knocks and only 6 angles
Showing Up 12 knocks and only 4 angles
Flashy Bull 13 knocks
Seaside Retreat 14 knocks and only 7 angles
Sharp Humor 16 knocks and only 7 angles.
GLTA
posted by slam
May 3 2006 12:46pm