4 replies:

1. Well, after capping this race I am not realexcited about betting on it! Let's start -

   Throw #5,#6 and #10 out right off the bat! Sorry Pat Day, Farnum Alley (#5) is not going anywhere.

   Capping this race we get --- Read The Footnotes #3, Value Plus #8 and Tapit#4 as the best of the pack, in that order. Unfortunately, these are the favorites at Early lines of 7-5, 3-1 and 5-1. Yukkk! Looks like a very low paying Exacta or Trifecta if the chalks hit - Not much value there!

   What about the rest? The other 4 horses are definitely in a 2nd tier from the top 3 -

   Frisky Spider #9 is not well seasoned for this distance, only going over a mile once and stopped running during that race. This horse likes to run up front, but can it handle and hold on at 9F? - Doubtful, but possible to hit the board as a surprise.

   Notorious Rogue #7 is just okay, but not impressive over a mile yet. Would be a surprise to hit the board.

   Friends Lake #2 had a decent outing back in October at a mile, but was very unimpressive at 8.5F in January - and now we have a 2 monthe lay-off. Have to say a surprise here to hit board.

   The Cliff's Edge #1 is a huge closer, runs off pace and very fast late, but would need to have a good start. This horse could cut 10 lengths in a hurry and is the most seasoned for this distance. However, never has really shown it can run with the class of horses in this field. A decent start out of the gate (very unusual), a late strong surge (very typical), and a little luck could place this horse on the board. Will be charging hard at the end, but catching the top 3 - ???

   So what to do? I won't bet any big bets on this race as there is not great value on my top 3 picks, but I will watch as it should be fun to watch. Prediction - 3-8-4-1

   Just for the hell of it

   $10 TRI BOX 3-8-4-1

   $2 SUPR BOX 3-8-4-1

   Good Luck! Hopefuly, we can find some value in the race at Santa Anita (my next post).

   

   posted by drtnapper07

   March 12, 2004 2:13am
2. Okay - On to Santa Anita

   This race may have some value - A field with four stars from the 2 year old class. Halfbridled #1 and AP Adventure #6 are the best- but how much better are they? At early odds of 6-5 and 9-5 respectively, the value may be in other horses if an upset could occur.

   The best four horses in this field are:

   Halfbridled #1 4-0-0 in 4 starts (6-5)

   Silent Sighs #4 3-1-0 in 4 starts (8-1)

   Hollywood Story #5 1-3-1 in 6 starts (8-1)

   AP Adventure #6 3-0-0 in 3 starts (9-5)

   Are #1 and #6 that much better than #4 and #5? Probably not! The #5 has raced against these two unbeatens, Halfbridled 3 times as a 2 yr old and once against AP Adventure once as a 3 year old. In the most recent, the #5 had a decent trip losing by a half length. The #4 has game, but has only raced at this distance one time against lesser horses - a big question mark, but potential is here. Before I say much better value with the #4 and #5, let's take a quick look at the rest of the field.

   Throw #2,#3 and #7 out! Yes, the #3 at 6-1 odds is not that good, giving us more value to this race. That leaves Stellar Jayne #8 at 30-1 odds. Who is this horse? The answer is that no one knows for sure. This horse has never had a great trip around a track. Has raced versus AP Adventure twice as a 3 year old - finishing 4 lengths back both times - however "5 wide into stretch" and "off a bit slow" in both of these clashes did not help. Fillie has shown strong closing speed and was actually inching close to AP in last race. If this horse just blossoms a little and gets a good trip - Santiago's second mount on this fillie could be a major upset of the two strong favorites. A Worth mentioning because of the 30-1 early price - this horse is better than that!

   What to do? Prediction - We'll see 5 horses down the stretch fighting for this win with the #1 and #6 definitely involved and the #8 trying to get involved. The #4 and #5 should be right in the middle of it. I wish this one was on ESPN! Gotta make some value plays with the 8-1s and the 30-1. On paper, 1-6-5-4-8, however, we will make some value plays -

   $10 TRI BOX 1-6-5-8 ($240)

   $10 TRI BOX 6-5-4 ($60)

   $40 EX BOX 5-8 ($80)

   $40 EX BOX 6-5 ($80)

   The #1 probably wins this thing, but with Ms. Krone out and a new jockey (Stevens) with the ride this time, coupled with Halfbridled coming off a lay-off and the early rotten odds at 6-5, we can only hope that Santa Anita bets this horse down to 3-5 by post and this fillie doesn't show-up when the gates open! Good Luck!

   

   posted by drtnapper07

   March 12, 2004 3:49pm
3. Short and sweet.....the #1 wins this with no excuses. Forget the drama about low odds. Favorites are SUPPOSED to win big races. They win a pretty good % at tracks around the US everyday. No exceptions here. With that said, my bet is as follows;

   $25 TRI KEY

   1/2,3,4,5,6

   TOTAL BET = $500.00

   Now go get in line to cash this gimmee..........

   Snowflake

   

   posted by snowflake

   March 13, 2004 10:23am
4. Wish I had more time to brief you on this, but I'm out the door to bartend for our St. Paddy's Day drunkfest! So with brevity I give you my selections for this crazy "upset" race. Good luck to all today. And go PITT PANTHERS TONITE!!!!!!!

   $15 TRI KEY

   3/1,2,4,5,6

   $10 TRI KEY "FLYER"

   6/1,2,3,4,5

   TOTAL BET $500

   Good luck you "most famous of horsemen"

   Snowin'

   

   posted by snowflake

   March 13, 2004 10:33am