COLLEGE BOWL SERVICES FOR 2005
dr bob
OUTBACK BOWL
Monday, January 2
****Iowa 33 Florida (-2 ½) 20
I don't understand this line. How is it possible that Florida is favored over
Iowa? The Hawkeyes are clearly better on both sides of the line of scrimmage
and on special teams and should win this game easily. Iowa started the season
slowly with a loss to Iowa State (starting QB Drew Tate was knocked out of that
game early) and a blowout loss to Ohio State in their first 4 games and the
Hawkeyes have been underrated ever since (5-2 ATS). The Hawkeyes have an
outstanding, balanced attack that averaged 194 ground yards at 5.5 yards per
rushing play (against teams that would allow 4.7 yprp to an average team) in
their 10 Division 1A games while starting quarterback Drew Tate averaged 7.6
yards per pass play against teams that would combine to allow 5.7 yppp against
an average team (that number is adjusted for facing Ball State when they had
numerous players suspended early in the season and for facing Purdue's defense
when they were decimated in the secondary). Overall, Iowa rates at 1.4 yards
per play better than average on offense and they should have little trouble
moving the ball against a Florida defense that rates at 0.6 yppl better than
average (4.8 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.4 yppl against an
average defense ? adjusted for facing Georgia's backup quarterback and facing
Alabama when star WR Prothro was healthy). Florida faced 5 better than average
quarterbacks this season (Alabama, LSU, Vandy, South Carolina and Florida
State) and the Gators allowed 7.5 yppp in those games (to quarterbacks that
would combine to average 6.8 yppp against an average defense), so Tate should
have a good outing while the rushing attack is projected to average 5.0 yprp.
Florida's offense was barely better than average in 8 games after star receiver
Andre Caldwell was lost for the season, averaging just 5.3 yppl against teams
that would allow 5.1 yppl to an average team and the Gators aren't likely to
have success against a good Iowa defense that rates at 0.6 yppl better than
average (5.0 yppl allowed to Division 1A teams that would average 5.6 yppl
against an average defensive unit). Florida didn't average more than 5.4 yppl
in any game against a better than average defensive team this season and my
math model projects just 4.9 yppl for the Gators in this game. As you can see,
these two teams have equally good defensive units (both 0.6 yppl better than
average), but Iowa's offense (+1.4 yppl) is vastly superior to Florida's
offense (+0.2 yppl) and the Hawkeyes also have one of the nation's best special
teams units and they have a 5.5 points advantage in special teams over Florida.
My math model favors Iowa by 12 ½ points in this game and they are an underdog.
What a gift. I'll take Iowa in a 4-Star Best Bet and I'll lean slightly with
the Over.
Downgrade Iowa to a 3-Star Best Bet if they pick or favored by 3 or less
(2-Stars if they become a favorite of more than 3 points).
FIESTA BOWL
Monday, January 2
****Ohio State (-4) 35 Notre Dame 17
Notre Dame has a very good offensive team, but it may surprise some of you to
know that Ohio State has an even better offense and the rest of this game is
even more of a mismatch. Notre Dame averaged a very good 6.3 yards per play
this season, against a schedule of teams that would combine to allow 5.1 yppl
to an average team. As good as that is, the Irish attack is at a disadvantage
against an Ohio State defense that is 1.7 yppl better than average, allowing
just 4.3 yppl to a tough schedule that would combine to average 6.0 yppl
against an average defensive unit. Notre Dame faced three teams with
outstanding defensive units this season - Michigan, USC, and Tennessee - and
the Irish averaged only 4.5 yppl in those 3 games (those defenses would allow
4.3 yppl to an average team) and I don't see them having success against a
Buckeyes' defense that is the best in the nation. Ohio State's offense,
meanwhile, shouldn't have any trouble moving the ball in this game. The
Buckeyes averaged a healthy 6.0 yppl this season (against teams that would
allow just 4.9 yppl to an average team), but that attack blossomed once Troy
Smith became the undisputed starting quarterback in game 4 after serving a
suspension in game 1 and splitting time with Justin Zwick the next two games.
In 8 games with Smith at quarterback fulltime, the Buckeyes averaged 6.5 yppl
against teams that would allow just 4.9 yppl to an average attack. Smith
averaged 8.4 yards per pass play (against teams that would allow only 5.2 yppp
to an average quarterback) and he also averaged 5.7 yards per rushing play
while compiling 624 yards with his scrambles. Including Smith's snaps in games
2 and 3, the Buckeyes were 1.4 yppl better than average with Smith under
center. The Buckeyes will move the ball with ease in this game against a
mediocre Irish defense that gave up 5.6 yppl this season to teams that would
combine to allow 5.8 yppl against an average defensive team. Notre Dame's
defense is 0.3 yppl worse than the average defense that Ohio State faced during
the regular season, so I expect the Buckeyes to top the 34 points per game that
they averaged with Smith at quarterback. Ohio State is not only better on both
sides of the ball, but the Buckeyes have one of the top 3 special teams units
in the nation and my math model favors Ohio State by 17 ½ points in this game.
That may seem unrealistic to some of you, but remember that my math model has
been picking Ohio State all season long and the Buckeyes' 6 straight spread
wins entering this game is evidence that they are an underrated team. In fact,
my math model would favor Ohio State against both USC and Texas and it's too
bad that Ohio State started Zwick at quarterback in their 22-25 loss to Texas
in week 2. The Buckeyes' only other loss came at Penn State, a team that I rate
as the 4th best team in the nation, and they outgained the Nittany Lions on the
road 3.8 yppl to 3.5 yppl (lost because of -2 in turnover margin). As far as
Notre Dame goes, you may remember that my math model had them favored by 7.7
points at Stanford in a game they won by just 7 points. The numbers don't lie
and Notre Dame is simply not near the same class of team that Ohio State is.
The only reason the Irish are getting respect from the public (and thus the
linesmaker) is because the entire country watched them almost beat top-ranked
USC at home in a 31-34 loss. However, Notre Dame averaged just 4.8 yppl in that
game while allowing USC to average 7.4 yppl. The miracle was not the Notre Dame
almost beat USC, but that the game was even close. The Irish were also out
played 3.4 yppl to 4.6 yppl in their 17-10 win over Michigan ? the only other
really good team that Notre Dame faced this season. However, their memorable
game against USC is the reason why the pointspread on this game is so low and
I'll take full advantage of public misperception and take Ohio State in a
4-Star Best Bet.
posted by phantom
33 replies
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Tsw-wednesday
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GMAC BOWL
Ladd Peebles Stadium - Mobile, AL
UTEP vs. TOLEDO
UTEP (8-3 SU/4-6 ATS) was humming right along until pulling two clunkers in their last two games of the season in losses vs. UAB <35-23 (-7½)> and at SMU <40-27 (-7)> in the season finale. The Miners are led by QB Jordan Palmer, little brother of Cincinnati's Carson Palmer. Palmer threw for 3,340 yards and 28 touchdowns this year, but he tossed 18 interceptions, with seven of them coming in the final two games. He has the arm, the understanding of the offense, and the weapons around him, but he has to limit his mistakes for the Miners to be successful. WR Johnnie Lee Higgins, who caught eight touchdown passes in the first six games of the year, was shut out over the final five games and needs to get into the mix. RB Tyler Ebell, a transfer from UCLA, and Marcus Thomas are solid runners that are good enough to carry the offense on their own. Offensively, UTEP ranks 20th (438 ypg) and their defense ranks 54th (364 ypg). Toledo (8-3 SU/3-7 ATS) closed out their season on November 22nd with a 44-41 OT win at Bowling Green as +5 point dogs. Their three losses this year came at Fresno State (44-14), at Central Michigan (21-17) and at home vs. Northern Illinois (35-17). QB Bruce Gradkowski has been one of college football's all-time most efficient passers, completing 68% of his passes in his career with 80 touchdown passes and 25 interceptions. Toledo has been solid on both sides of the ball this year, ranking 17th in total offense (445 ypg) and 23rd in defense (322 ypg). The fav is 3-0 ATS in the last three GMAC Bowls. Both teams finished the season on an ATS skid, going a combined 1-9 ATS down the stretch. Toledo is 11-1 ATS after topping 42 points in their previous outing. Both teams can light it up on the scoreboard as Toledo ranks 14th in scoring (35 ppg) and UTEP ranks 21st (33 ppg). Should be plenty of scoring.
SELECTION: 3* OVER
posted by phantom
Dec. 19 2005 6:34pm -
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DOC'S Free Bowl Game Pick. #16 Take UCLA -3 over Northwestern (2:00 pm CBS)
Two offensive firepower's will do battle with one another in El Paso. We will put our money behind the 9-2 Bruins. If we throw out the last game against USC, the Bruins have had a remarkable turnaround. The Cats are one of the worst teams in the nation when it comes to defense. UCLA is prepared for this type of offense since they play in the pass happy PAC-10. This will be high scoring but, Los Angeles will take this game by double digits
__________________
posted by phantom
Dec. 19 2005 6:34pm -
0 likes
Wednesday December 21st 2005
-- College Football --
8:00p
Mike Martell
Texas-El Paso
+3.0 / 10 units
CFB GAME OF THE YEAR 10 UNITS: GMAC BOWL: UTEP +3 (vs Toledo)
8:00p
Mike Rose
Texas-El Paso
Toledo
o62.0 / 3 units
3* TOLEDO/UTEP OVER 62 ACTION 8:00 ET
Very interesting match-up this evening in the GMAC Bowl as the Toledo Rockets and UTEP Miners lock horns for the first time ever in Mobile, AL. Last we saw the Rockets, they pulled off an unbelievable comeback at Bowling Green and cashed our ‘Over’ tickets in the process. Well, we’re going right back to the well in their Bowl game as the UTEP miners match up with them very well. UTEP boasts an identical 8-3 mark, but stumbled to close out their regular season schedule which ultimately cost them a shot of competing in the Liberty Bowl. Toledo has gotten waxed in its last two Bowl efforts, and would love nothing more than to send highly acclaimed Sr. QB Bruce Gradkowski out a winner who passed for 2171 yards and 24 TDs on the year. UTEP counters with Jordan Palmer (Carson’s little bro) who threw for 3340 yards and 28 TDs on the year. Up until their last two games of the season, UTEP’s offense was simply unstoppable. In fact, they were the only ones to stop themselves with poorly timed turnovers. If Palmer and company are able to limit those turnovers this evening, I believe they’ll run away with the prize. If not, Toledo will roll as they already come into this one (+5) in the TO ratio. Either way, points will be put up on the board regardless of the turnovers, as both clubs will be able to move the ball with ease against each stop unit. Sit back and enjoy the fireworks!!!
Thursday December 22nd 2005
-- College Football --
8:00p
Rich Crew
BYU
+7.5 / 3 units
Friday December 23rd 2005
-- College Football --
8:00p
Mike Rose
Kansas
-3.0 / 3 units
3* KANSAS (–3) VS. HOUSTON ACTION 8:00 ET
2* KANSAS/HOUSTON UNDER 50 ACTION 8:00 ET
I’ll be the first to admit that I was surprised at the moxie and determination the Jayhawks exhibited in their season finale at home against Iowa State. They fought back from a double-digit deficit in the fourth quarter, and ripped the Big 12 North Championship right out of the Cyclones hands in OT. This is a senior laden group that took care of business in every one of the home games this season, and took on a much tougher slate of competition than its opponent did this season. Houston ended up with an identical 6-5 mark this season, and my hat goes off to HC Art Briles and his staff for turning the fortunes of this program around after last season’s disappointing season. That being said, they’re up against it this evening as the Jayhawks look to grab HC Mangino his first ever Bowl win. KU was annihilated a few year’s back against QB Phillip Rivers and the NC State Wolfpack as double-digit underdogs. I expect a much better effort to be put forth by the “Fighting Mangino’sâ€Â
posted by phantom
Dec. 19 2005 6:36pm -
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Dr Bob (bowl package)
NCAA New Orleans Bowl (December 20) LEANS to Arkansas State Indians and Arkansas State/Southern Miss Over, GMAC Bowl (December 21) Regular Play (2*) Toledo Rockets, Las Vegas Bowl (December 22) Top Rated Play (3*) California Golden Bears, Poinsettia Bowl (December 22) LEAN to Navy, Fort Worth Bowl (December 23) LEAN to Kansas, Hawaii Bowl (December 24) Strong Opinion (1*) Central Florida Golden Knights, Motor City Bowl (December 26) LEAN to Akron
posted by phantom
Dec. 20 2005 6:41pm -
0 likes
Tsw-wednesday
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GMAC BOWL
Ladd Peebles Stadium - Mobile, AL
UTEP vs. TOLEDO
UTEP (8-3 SU/4-6 ATS) was humming right along until pulling two clunkers in their last two games of the season in losses vs. UAB <35-23 (-7½)> and at SMU <40-27 (-7)> in the season finale. The Miners are led by QB Jordan Palmer, little brother of Cincinnati's Carson Palmer. Palmer threw for 3,340 yards and 28 touchdowns this year, but he tossed 18 interceptions, with seven of them coming in the final two games. He has the arm, the understanding of the offense, and the weapons around him, but he has to limit his mistakes for the Miners to be successful. WR Johnnie Lee Higgins, who caught eight touchdown passes in the first six games of the year, was shut out over the final five games and needs to get into the mix. RB Tyler Ebell, a transfer from UCLA, and Marcus Thomas are solid runners that are good enough to carry the offense on their own. Offensively, UTEP ranks 20th (438 ypg) and their defense ranks 54th (364 ypg). Toledo (8-3 SU/3-7 ATS) closed out their season on November 22nd with a 44-41 OT win at Bowling Green as +5 point dogs. Their three losses this year came at Fresno State (44-14), at Central Michigan (21-17) and at home vs. Northern Illinois (35-17). QB Bruce Gradkowski has been one of college football's all-time most efficient passers, completing 68% of his passes in his career with 80 touchdown passes and 25 interceptions. Toledo has been solid on both sides of the ball this year, ranking 17th in total offense (445 ypg) and 23rd in defense (322 ypg). The fav is 3-0 ATS in the last three GMAC Bowls. Both teams finished the season on an ATS skid, going a combined 1-9 ATS down the stretch. Toledo is 11-1 ATS after topping 42 points in their previous outing. Both teams can light it up on the scoreboard as Toledo ranks 14th in scoring (35 ppg) and UTEP ranks 21st (33 ppg). Should be plenty of scoring.
SELECTION: 3* OVER
posted by phantom
Dec. 21 2005 5:18pm -
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Lenny "20 stars" Stevens
10 stars Toledo (College foots)
10 stars Orlando (NBA)
10 stars North Carolina (college hoops)
posted by phantom
Dec. 21 2005 5:19pm -
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ESPN Insider Pick:
GMAC Bowl
UTEP +3 vs. Toledo: Mike Price's UTEP Miners seemingly had a berth in the Conference USA championship game wrapped up after they defeated eventual champ Tulsa 41-38 on the first Saturday in November. The game was a thriller and pointed the two teams out as the best in the conference. All the Miners had to do to play for the title was defeat either UAB at home or SMU on the road. It did neither. UAB, desperate to try to become bowl eligible, caught UTEP on a letdown week after Tulsa and got the victory. Unfortunately for the Miners, they also caught a very hot SMU team at year end. But it doesn't mean that Price won't have them ready for this game. Quarterback Jordan Palmer is capable of picking Toledo apart. Last year, UTEP nearly upset Colorado in the Houston Bowl.
Conference USA competition was far superior to the MAC this year, and in the MAC, Toledo was far from a standout. In the season's final game it took an overtime victory over Bowling Green (another team that blew it) to get the Rockets this bowl invitation. Late in the season Toledo could have clinched a spot in the MAC title game with either a victory over Central Michigan or with a win at home over Northern Illinois, and failed both times. The defense has failed the Rockets miserably of late. In the final two games, the Rockets' D allowed 35 to Northern Illinois and 41 to Bowling Green. With Palmer bombing away for UTEP like Omar Jacobs did for Bowling Green, Toledo looks very vulnerable. Also, Toledo quarterback Bruce Gradkowski has not looked nearly as sharp this year.
The pick: UTEP. In its last two bowl appearances (last year and '02) Toledo lost by 29 and 26 to middle-of-the-road Big East opponents
posted by phantom
Dec. 21 2005 5:19pm -
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Dr. Bob's remaining plays -- also posted in newsletter section:
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GMAC Bowl (December 21) Regular Play (2*) **Toledo (-2 ½) 35 Utep 24
Las Vegas Bowl (December 22) Top Rated Play (3*) ***CALIFORNIA (-7) 41 Byu 23
Poinsettia Bowl (December 22) LEAN to Navy Navy (-2 ½) 32 Colorado State 28
Fort Worth Bowl (December 23) LEAN to Kansas Kansas (-3) 28 Houston 21
Hawaii Bowl (December 24) Strong Opinion (1*) Central Florida 33 Nevada (-2) 28
Motor City Bowl (December 26) LEAN to Akron Memphis (-5 ½) 27 Akron 23
Champs Sports Bowl Dec 27 no line on Clemson-Col, but I'll probably lean with Colorado at +3 or more and with Clemson at less than that.
INSIGHT BOWL Tuesday, December 27 (3*) ***Rutgers 32 ARIZONA STATE (-11) 33
MPC Computers Bowl December 28 Lean with Boston College
Mastercard Alamo Bowl Dec 28 Lean with Nebraska
EMERALD BOWL Thursday, December 29 Utah 21 Georgia Tech (-8 ½) 26
Pacific Life Holiday Bowl Dec 29 slight Lean with Oklahoma at +3 or more
Gaylord Hotels Music City Bowl Dec 30 probably Lean with Minnesota at -4 or less
Vitalis Sun Bowl Dec 30 Lean with UCLA at -4 or less
Independence Bowl Dec 30 tossup in Missouri-S Carolina game at line of 4
Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl Dec 30 no line on Miami-LSU, but I'll probably favor Miami by at least 7
Meineke Car Care Bowl Dec 31 South Florida might be a strong opinion
AutoZone Liberty Bowl Dec 31 Possible Strong Opinion on Fresno State
EVI.net Houston Bowl Dec 31 Lean with Iowa State +3 or more
AT&T Cotton bowl Jan 2 probable strong opinion on Alabama as dog.
OUTBACK BOWL Monday, January 2 (4*) ****Iowa 33 Florida (-2 ½) 20
Toyota Gator Bowl Jan 2 Lean with Louisville
Capital One Bowl Jan 2 Lean with Wisconsin
FIESTA BOWL Monday, January 2 (4*) ****Ohio State (-4) 35 Notre Dame 17
SUGAR BOWL Monday, January 2 (2*) **West Virginia 24 Georgia (-7 ½) 23
ORANGE BOWL Tuesday, January 3 (2*) **Penn State (-7 ½) 30 Florida State 13
ROSE BOWL January 4 Lean with Texas
posted by phantom
Dec. 21 2005 5:20pm -
0 likes
ppp
3% Toledo
3% OVER 60.5
__________________
Sebastian
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College Football 5*toledo
Nba Two 10* San Antonio Under
10* Orlando
Jack Clayton Guaranteed Selections
Date: Wednesday, December 21, 2005
5* Spurs at Knicks
I don't care that this may be a difficult back to back situation for the Spurs. This is a deep San Antonio team taking on a simply atrocious and even embarrassing NY Knick team. The Spurs have Brent Barry, Nazr Mohammed, Robert Horry, and Nick Van Exel -- and those are just the guys who came off the bench in last night's loss at Milwaukee. We're talking about quality veterans who know their roles and are only interested in defense and team-oriented play, which coach Gregg Poppovich preaches. I knew Milwaukee's new frontcourt pieces matched up well against the Spurs, but that's not the case here, as NY has a huge disadvantge under the boards this game. This San Antonio defense is still formidable. The exact opposite is true of this Knicks team, which carries a 6-game losing streak into this game. They are 0-4 ATS the last 4 and allow 98 ppg at home. New York is playing no defense is not a happy or functional team, with too many egos and too much deadweight. In addition, Nazr Mohammed returns to the team that traded him away a year ago. The Spurs will control the glass and their defense and depth should get them an 10-14 point win.
Play the Spurs!
Mike Rose Freebie
Michigan State -14.5
Alex Smart freebie CBB
California -7
posted by phantom
Dec. 21 2005 5:20pm -
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Delaney
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40m* Toledo
10m* Arizona
10m* Boise St
posted by phantom
Dec. 21 2005 5:21pm -
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Godspicks Full Card
God's Picks Premium Picks for December 21, 2005
Wise Guy plays are your maximum play. Majors are .75 of Wise Guy plays.
CFB
Major…
TOLEDO -2’ utep
UTEP has won their games by as the saying goes “outscoring their opponentâ€Â
posted by phantom
Dec. 21 2005 5:28pm -
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Wayne Root:
College Basketball:
Toledo--**Fortune 5000** (NCAA Basketball)
DePaul--Trophy Club
Northwestern State--Millionaire
Pure Profit:
College Basketball:
Buffalo--**Power Play** ($500 on internet)
DePaul--Money Move
North Carolina--Consensus
Both services have small plays on Toledo in tonight's college football bowl game. GOOD LUCK!!
posted by phantom
Dec. 21 2005 5:29pm -
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Hank Green...
5* Over Utep/toledo
3* Utep
posted by phantom
Dec. 21 2005 5:29pm -
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Power Sweep
Bowl Pick Is: Utep 37 Toledo 24
posted by phantom
Dec. 21 2005 5:30pm -
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sports guru
BOWL RECORD:
1 WIN; 0 LOSSES
--------------------------------------------------
SUMMARY OF NCAA BOWL SELECTIONS:
2* TOLEDO -3
Opinion: TOLEDO/UTEP OVER 60.5
--------------------------------------------------
UTEP (8 - 3) vs. TOLEDO (8 - 3)
Week 15 Wednesday, 12/21/2005 8:00 PM
GMAC Bowl - Ladd Peebles Stadium - Mobile, AL
vs
History
This is the first meeting between these clubs. UTEP is making its 12th bowl appearance (second consecutive) in the GMAC Bowl, and Toledo is making its 10th bowl appearance (second straight and fourth in the last five years). UTEP has also been designated the home team. UTEP is 5-6 SU in bowls. UTEP is also appearing in a bowl game in back-to-back years for the first time since 1954, and only the third time in school history. The 2005 GMAC Bowl marks the fifth different bowl that the Miners have played in. UTEP has participated in the Sun Bowl eight times and played in the Independence, Humanitarian and Houston bowls once each. Meanwhile, Toledo is 6-3 in bowl games.The Rockets went to the Motor City Bowl in 2001, 2002 and 2004. Toledo was beaten by Boston College, 51-25, in the 2002 Motor City Bowl and by Colorado, 39-10, in the 2004 Motor City Bowl. The Rockets have also played in the Tangerine Bowl (1969, 1970 and 1971), the California Bowl (1981 and 1984) and the Las Vegas Bowl (1995). Toledo is also the fourth MAC team to play in the GMAC Bowl, the others are Bowling Green, Miami and Marshall (twice). Those teams went 4-0 SU in this Bowl.
UTEP (8-3, 5-3 in C-USA)
Last Bowl: 2004 Ev1.net Houston (Colorado 33, UTEP 28)
Toledo (8-3, 6-2 in MAC- co-Western Division Champions)
Last Bowl: 2004 Motor City (Connecticut 39, Toledo 10)
UTEP Leaders:
Passing: Jordan Palmer, 244-401, 3,340 yards, 28 TDs
Rushing: Marcus Thomas, 720 yards, 5 TDs
Receiving: Johnnie Lee Higgins, 47 rec., 807 yards, 8 Tds
Toledo Leaders:
Passing: Bruce Gradkowski, 189-302, 2,171 yards, 24 TDs
Rushing: Trinity Dawson, 1,170 yards, 5 TDs
Receiving: Steve Odom, 50 rec., 593 yards, 5 TDs
UTEP:
UTEP is making back-to-back bowl appearances for the first time since 1954-55. This is the fourth straight year that a Mike Price coached team has played in a bowl game (two at UTEP and two at Washington State). His teams have a 36-12 overall record during that span. UTEP ranks sixth nationally in passing offense (310.5 ypg), 20th in passing efficiency (142.52) and total offense (438 ypg), and 21st in scoring offense (33.6 ppg). (310.5 ypg). Junior QB Jordan Palmer already owns the school's career records for completions (555), attempts (965), yards (7,326) and touchdowns (61). The Miners are 1-2 all-time versus MAC schools. UTEP won at Northern Illinois, 37-6, on Sept. 28, 1996, the Miners lost to Bowling Green, 21-0, on Nov. 19, 1960 in El Paso, and UTEP was also beaten by Kent State, 51-24, on Oct. 12, 1985 in Kent, Ohio. UTEP is making only their second trip all-time to the state of Alabama, they lost a 56-7 decision to the Alabama Crimson Tide in its last visit to the state on Oct. 6, 2001. UTEP is also trying to end the season with a victory for the first time since 1986. A victory would also give the Miners a nine-win season for just the third time in school history.
TOLEDO
Toledo is playing in a bowl game for the second straight season and the fourth time in five years. The Rockets scored 30 or more points in all but one game this season, topping the 40-point mark on five occasions. Senior QB Bruce Gradkowski, owner of 19 UT single game, single season and career passing records, was the co-winner of the Vern Smith Award as the MVP of the Mid-American Conference. Senior K Jason Robbins was named MAC Special Teams Player of the Year after going 12-for-12 on field goals and 48-of-49 on extra points with his lone miss coming on a blocked kick. Since the beginning of the 2000 season, Toledo has a record of 54-19 (.740), making it the 11th-winningest program in I-A over that time. Toledo has 32 players with experience in at least one bowl, and 10 players who have seen action in two bowls.
GAME NOTES: This marks the first meeting between the schools. Both teams are ranked in the top 20 in total offense UTEP ranks 17th, averaging 454.4 yards per game, just edging out Toledo, who is 18th with a 453.9 average. Quarterbacks Jordan Palmer (UTEP) and Bruce Gradkowski (Toledo) have combined to pass for 16,253 yards and 141 touchdowns in their careers. Gradkowski will be the sixth different QB from a MAC school to play at Ladd-Peebles Stadium since 2000. In either the GMAC Bowl or Senior Bowl, the previous five have combined to complete 60 percent of their passes for 1,974 yards and 19 touchdowns with just four interceptions.
TRENDS:
UTEP
UTEP is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games and are only 4-8 ATS last 12.
UTEP is 3-0 when playing on ESPN networks in 2005 (1-0 on ESPN, 1-0 on ESPN2, 1-0 on ESPNU).
UTEP is 7-0 SU when scoring 30 or more points this season.
UTEP is also 14-2 ATS under coach Mike Price when scoring 30 or more points.
UTEP is 4-13 ATS against non-conference opponents since 2000 and a horrible 1-12 when they are an underdog.
TOLEDO
Toledo is 3-11-1 ATS last 15 games away from home.
Toledo HC Tom Amstutz is 1-4-1 ATS away from the Glass Bowl this year and 0-10 ATS since 2002 facing non-MAC foes away from home.
Toledo is 8-4 ATS last 12 as a favorite of less then 10 points.
CONFERENCE AND BOWL TRENDS
UTEP is 0-3 SU & ATS in bowl games since 1988.
The favorite is 3-0 SU & ATS in the last 3 GMAC Bowl games.
Teams representing the MAC conference have gone 10-4 SU in bowl games since 1998, with three of those four losses coming last year.
Analysis
Motivation will be the theme in this game and Toledo certainly has more but will they be able to stop the always dangerous UTEP passing attack? Coming into this contest, Toledo has been embarrassed in their last two bowls a 29-point loss to Connecticut in last year's Motor City Bowl and a 26-point loss versus Boston College in the 2002 Motor City Bowl. This will also be the very first bowl game for senior QB Bruce Gradkowski and he will be looking to showcase his talents to the many NFL scouts who will be in attendance. Second, the reason why this is his first bowl game is also the reason why Tom Amstutz and the rest of their program have plenty to prove. Last year, when they were in the Motor City Bowl, Gradkowski was sidelined by an injury. Gradkowski is the heart and soul of the Rocket offense, this season there has been a much improved ground game, and it has led to one of the best balanced attacks in all Division I-A football averaging 221.6 yards per game on the ground, and 223.6 yards through the air. Toledo also protects the football, in seven of 11 games they had either one turnover or none. And while Toledo takes such great care of the football, Mike Price's offense coughed it up an alarming 32 times in 10 lined games.
Toledo's opponent, the University of Texas at El Paso is perhaps on of the best Cinderella stories in all of College football the last two seasons. Prior to hiring Mike Price UTEP's season records were 2 wins 9 losses, 2 wins 10 losses and 2 wins 11 losses. Now, they will be playing in their second consecutive bowl game after producing identical 8-3 records the past two seasons. Said Marshall's head coach after UTEP defeated them 31-3 ".its scary to think how good this team can be if they are at full strength." Unfortunately, for Toledo it appears that UTEP might be at full strength for this contest as the Miners could get as many as four injured key players back for the GMAC Bowl. Senior RB Matt Austin has missed the last three games, senior WR Jayson Boyd has been sidelined for five of the last six contests, senior RB Tyler Ebell has been out for the last five games and senior DL Chris Mineo has missed the last seven games. Boyd, Ebell and Mineo were all starters earlier in the year and Austin is a 1,000-yard career rusher. Boyd owns 951 career receiving yards. Ebell went over 2,000 yards rushing for his career in his last game at Rice. Mineo was putting up monster numbers (eight tackles for losses, six sacks) in the first four games before having his season cut short. UTEP also has some motivation on their side as they will be trying to win a bowl game for the first time since 1967!
While both of these teams have well developed offenses, each have struggled defensively down the stretch. Toledo allowed 35 to Northern Illinois and 41 to Bowling Green in their last two games. In their last four games against Division 1-A opponents UTEP gave up 31, 38, 35, and 40 points. With some disappointment from each about failing to secure their conference crown, this game could be wide open and lack defensive intensity. Indeed, each gave up over 30 points in their bowl losses last year. Look for points, LOTS and LOTS of points as both teams possess superior offensives and inferior defenses. Thus the OVER looks like the obvious play, but with better then 8-1 bets coming in on the over we will step aside and look for something better.
With all of the above duly noted I can’t help but see value in the line on the side of Toledo and I look for them to continue the MAC Conference domination in the GMAC Bowl. Marshall beat East Carolina 64-61 in 2001, then beat Louisville 38-15 the following year. Miami (Ohio) knocked off Louisville again in 2003, 49-28. And Bowling Green kept the MAC's winning tradition alive with a 52-35 victory against Memphis last year. In fact, the MAC as a conference has gone 10-4 straight up in bowl games since 1998, with three of those four losses coming last year. Also, you have to consider that UTEP HC Price is only 7-15 SU & 8-14 ATS away from home off a loss against winning teams, and 0-6 ATS if his team allowed more than 36 points in its last game and if things can’t get any worse, UTEP also checks in at 1-12 ATS as non-conference dogs. Meanwhile, Toledo is playing out of the collective minds and have out gained 10 of their 11 opponent on the field this year. Toledo has a huge QB edge with Bruce Gradkowski, who virtually never turns the ball over and a big edge in the running game. Given the short price in this line lets lay the points.
Forecast: Toledo 38, UTEP 28
PLAY 2* UNITS ON TOLEDO -3
OPINION SELECTION ON TOLEDO/UTEP OVER 60.5
posted by phantom
Dec. 21 2005 5:31pm -
0 likes
Pinnalce Pulse
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California (-7.5) vs. BYU (Pioneer PureVision Las Vegas Bowl)
These two teams are headed in opposite directions. California started hot at 5-0 but then dropped 4 of its last 6 games to finish at 7-4 as the Golden Bears’ passing game has struggled under QB Joseph Ayoob. After limping to a 1-3 start, BYU turned it around and won 5 of its last 7. The Cougars’ first-year coach Bronco Mendenhall has built an offense around QB John Beck, who had 3,357 passing yards and a passer rating of 138.1.
Our opener of Cal -7 -105 was ignored by the sharps. The public likes California, with 80% of the bettors backing the Golden Bears. Public money has forced the line to creep up to Cal -7.5 -105. Sad though it is, this is our highest-volume NCAA Bowl game so far this week.
Navy (-2.5) vs. Colorado St. (San Diego County Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl)
Navy enters this game with the nation’s #1 rushing offense, averaging 305.9 yards per game. Colorado St., on the other hand, allows over 200 rushing yards per game. Despite the amount of rushing, Navy games tend to be high scoring averaging 55 points per game. The Rams offense is just the
opposite – it relies on a pass-heavy attack led by QB Justin Holland. In 2005 he completed over 62% of his passes for 2,804 yards and had a 143 passer rating.
When comparing stats between teams, you should be acutely aware of the strength of schedule for each team. According to Sagarin ratings, Colorado State’s strength of schedule was the 58th most difficult among Div I-A schools, compared to Navy’s rating of 102nd. This strongly suggests one should adjust Navy’s stats downward when analyzing this game.
We occasionally have a “sharp vs. publicâ€Â
posted by phantom
Dec. 21 2005 10:54pm -
0 likes
5 BEST BET
LSU over Miami Florida by 14
We respect the Canes and all that they’ve accomplished
this season with so many young players, particularly QB
Kyle Wright. We also respect the Hurricane tradition and
coach Larry Coker, but sometimes you just have to play
on a gut feeling and that's what we're doing here. LSU is
famous for rising up and whacking somebody when least
expected and nobody expects the Tigers to whack Miami.
SEC teams in general have made a habit of winning and
covering against high powered teams off big wins (11-2
SUATS vs .750 or better off a win of 8 or more) and LSU is
10-1 ATS when not favored by 16 or more off exactly one
loss if the Tigers were favored in that loss and are playing
a .700 > foe. That fits nicely into the fact that ACC bowlers
are 0-4 ATS against SEC opponents that check in off a SU
favorite defeat. Bengals lost the SEC title game here in
the Dome to Georgia last month. Not today.
3 BEST BET
Iowa State over Tcu by 10
When talk goes around about looking for that "live dog"
in a bowl game, sooner or later it gets to Iowa State. The
Cyclones are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games as underdogs
and have covered all three of their bowl games played
at neutral sites since 2000. Dan McCarney's team started
slow but like every other team this man has coached, it
got better as the season went along. After a 3-3 start,
Iowa State finished 4-1, the only loss in overtime at
desperate Kansas. TCU blew through the Mountain West
like it wasn't there, winning all eight of its league
games and covering seven. Unfortunately for the Frogs,
Iowa State is not a Mountain West team. The Cyclones
belong to a conference that has never had one of its
members be an underdog to TCU. Today, you'll see why.
MONDAY - JANUARY 2nd
TOYOTA GATOR BOWL
Alltel Stadium • Jacksonville, FL
4 BEST BET
Alabama over Texas Tech by 10
Perception can be dangerous. Texas Tech has the reputation
of being an unstoppable scoring machine that can overcome
any team by the sheer volume of the points it scores.
Alabama is perceived to be a team who can't score no
matter who the opposition. Wrong and wrong! Since 1998,
Texas Tech is 9-20 SU away from home against winning
teams (3-6 ATS as a favorite). This year, in their four road
games, the Red Raiders beat Nebraska on the fluke fumble
of the year, led Baylor 6-0 with eight minutes to go in the
game before winning 28-0, lost to last place finisher
Oklahoma State and got killed by Texas. Alabama's only
two losses this season were to LSU and Auburn, two teams
who would be touchdown favorites over Texas Tech. When
the best defense in the nation is getting points, we're on
the best defense in the nation. Especially ones that are 4-0
ATS as bowl dogs against opponents off a win!
GAME OF THE WEEK UPSET UPSET
Iowa over Florida by 4
Florida faced five bowl teams this season. The Gators beat
Georgia 14-10 in a game where the Bulldogs were without
their starting quarterback, and whacked Florida State
34-7 despite being outgained by 50 yards. In the other
three games, the Gators were creamed by Alabama,
beaten by mediocre South Carolina and nipped by LSU in
a game where the Tigers won the stats by 150 yards but
committed five turnovers to none for Florida. This is a
true phony favorite. Yes, Iowa was just 2-4 against bowl
teams this season but, in the last four, they were beaten
in overtime by Michigan and by a miracle at Northwestern
before holding Wisconsin to a season low in total yards
and Minnesota to its second lowest rushing total of the
season. This is a true live dog.
posted by phantom
Dec. 22 2005 1:43pm -
0 likes
more lawrence:
COLLEGE FOOTBALL
2005 BOWL SEASON
PART TWO
FRIDAY - DECEMBER 30th
MUSIC CITY BOWL
The Coliseum • Nashville, TN
Minnesota over Virginia by 6
There are quite a few dog numbers that side with the Cavaliers
but that's about all we have to say about Virginia, who, under
Al Groh, is just 9-18 SU and ATS away from Charlottesville,
including 2-14 SU when allowing 190 or more rushing yards.
Minnesota, on the other hand, relishes this kind of scenario.
The Gophers have 17 consecutive non-conference wins,
including three bowl wins in a row and are once again an
overland express machine. Minnesota is averaging 280 yards
per game rushing – giving us the opportunity to mention again
that pre-New Year's Day bowl teams who gain 200 or more
yards on the ground are 48-21 ATS. We certainly remember
how the Gophers steamrolled a great Alabama defense in this
game last year. Again.
FRIDAY - DECEMBER 30th
VITALIS SUN BOWL
Sun Bowl Stadium • El Paso, TX
Northwestern over Ucla by 1
Here's another Big Ten rusher that should work. Ucla owns
the nation's worst run defense. Think about that. It's easier to
run the ball on the Bruins than it is against Temple, or Duke,
or Florida Atlantic. Northwestern is 20-2 ATS as underdogs
when the Cats rush for 200 or more. The problem we have
with NU is that its has the worst total defense in the nation
meaning it's easier to gain ANY kind of yards against the Purple
Cats than it is Temple, Duke or Florida Atlantic! Conference
affiliation favors Ucla (Pac Ten teams are 15-5 ATS vs Big Ten
bowlers who are off a SUATS win and 12-2 ATS against any
bowl opponent off a DD win). However, since the favorite
hasn't covered this game once in the last ten tries, we have to
lean to Northwestern.
FRIDAY - DECEMBER 30th
INDEPENDENCE BOWL
Independence Stadium • Shreveport, LA
Missouri over S Carolina by 3
This game has the potential to be one of those rare contests
where the underdog doubles the rushing yards of its opponent.
Missouri runs for 205 yards per game while South Carolina limps
along at 91 yards per game. In case you are wondering, that
situation has happened 62 times since 1980. The favorite in
those games covered the spread just NINE times. Steve Spurrier
is a master planner when it comes to post season play and his
team is 7-0 ATS in its last seven games with rest against non-SEC
opposition. Still, Brad Smith is easily the most potent weapon
on the field and, if he's on, he's impossible to stop. Gary Pinkel
didn't save his job at Missouri by getting here – he has to WIN
here. We're counting on his superior ground game to get the
job done.
5 BEST BET
LSU over Miami Florida by 14
We respect the Canes and all that they’ve accomplished
this season with so many young players, particularly QB
Kyle Wright. We also respect the Hurricane tradition and
coach Larry Coker, but sometimes you just have to play
on a gut feeling and that's what we're doing here. LSU is
famous for rising up and whacking somebody when least
expected and nobody expects the Tigers to whack Miami.
SEC teams in general have made a habit of winning and
covering against high powered teams off big wins (11-2
SUATS vs .750 or better off a win of 8 or more) and LSU is
10-1 ATS when not favored by 16 or more off exactly one
loss if the Tigers were favored in that loss and are playing
a .700 > foe. That fits nicely into the fact that ACC bowlers
are 0-4 ATS against SEC opponents that check in off a SU
favorite defeat. Bengals lost the SEC title game here in
the Dome to Georgia last month. Not today.
MEINEKE CAR CARE BOWL
Bank of America Stadium • Charlotte, NC
South Florida over NC State by 1
There are some who believe that South Florida doesn't belong
in a bowl game, mostly because the Bulls finished so poorly,
but they played six bowl teams this year and split 3-3 SU with
four covers. There are some bowlers who didn't beat ANY bowl
teams. USF belongs if for no other reason than they handed
Louisville its worst loss in eight years, a 45-14 smashing in
Tampa. NC State is the team whose credentials should be
questioned. The Wolfpack also finished 6-5 but didn't beat a
single league opponent by more than six points. South
Florida scored more points, allowed less points, and gained
more yards on the season than NC State did. A pair of bowl
angles totalling 70-32 ATS favor South Florida in this one. So
do we. We're bullish on USF.
SATURDAY - DECEMBER 31st
AUTOZONE LIBERTY BOWL
Memorial Stadium • Memphis, TN
Fresno State over Tulsa by 7
What happened to Fresno State? After playing Southern Cal to
an inch of stopping its 32-game (at the time) winning streak,
the Bulldogs went to Nevada and got mauled by an inspired pack
of Wolves. OK, that's understandable. Fresno was emotionally
drained after the war in Los Angeles and got caught in a flat
spot against a team that hardly ever loses at home. That does
NOT explain the humiliating 40-28 loss to Louisiana Tech at
home the following week. Because of that game, we've lost
confidence in Fresno and can't call for the blowout win here.
Besides, Tulsa is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 games against winning teams
and WAC favorites who allowed 35 or more in their last game
are 0-5 ATS in bowl games. Fresno has the better players, if they
all show up.
lawrence:
MONDAY - JANUARY 2nd
TOYOTA GATOR BOWL
Alltel Stadium • Jacksonville, FL
Virginia Tech over Louisville by 3
Now, here's a touchdown underdog who has been favored in
its last 18 games (17 of them by 10 or more points), is 15-1 ATS
against its opponents conference, has scored at least 30 points
in 21 of its last 22 games and is a perfect 11-0 ITS this season.
Whew! Just for the record, Virginia Tech is a dismal 2-25 ATS
as a favorite in the last 27 games it allowed more than 21
points. Those stats seem to be an overwhelming case for
Louisville but Tech is not without support. ACC teams are
10-0-2 ATS in bowl games when coming off a SU loss as a
favorite and Gator Bowl chalk is 8-1 ATS the last nine years.
The injury to Brian Brohm clouds what should be a decisive
selection on Louisville. With Brohm, Louisville had an excellent
chance to win. Now, they'll have to settle for a cover.
the best defense in the nation. Especially ones that are 4-0
ATS as bowl dogs against opponents off a win!
Marc Lawrence's
MONDAY - JANUARY 2nd
NOKIA SUGAR BOWL
Georgia Dome • Atlanta, GA
Georgia over West Virginia by 3
Mark Richt is 20-1 SU in non-SEC play and he has six straight
ATS wins against those who are off a SU win. Georgia also has
a great track record over the last 14 years in these events with
nine wins and eight covers in its last 11 bowl games. West
Virginia is just the opposite. The Mountaineers have lost 11
bowl games in a row with only a half-point cover against
Missouri in '98 keeping them from being 0-11 ATS. Despite
all that, we like West Virginia to get the money. With a pair
of bowl angles totalling 40 ATS wins against only 16 losses and
a running game that averages 262 yards per game, we'll take
the Mountaineers here. Remember, bowl dogs who run for 200
yards in the bowl game are 42-9 ATS over the last 25 years.
TUESDAY - JANUARY 3rd
FEDEX ORANGE BOWL
Dolphins Stadium • Miami, FL
Penn State over Florida State by 10
Classic matchup of Hall of Fame coaches takes center stage
today. Bobby Bowden is 7-1 SU & 7-0-1 ATS in his last eight
games against Big Ten opposition, is 18-7-1 SU in his last 26
bowl games and coaches the only team in the nation to appear
in a New Year's Day (or later) bowl every year for the past 12
years. Joe Paterno is 15-7 SU and ATS in bowl games, including
9-1 SUATS as the favorite, is 17-4-1 SU against the ACC since
1980 and is a perfect 5-0 ITS against fellow bowlers this season.
It doesn't look like there's a side to choose here, but we'll lean
slightly toward Penn State. The Lions have held four of this
year's opponents to season low yards and outrushed all 11 of
this year's foes. Florida State, who lost three of its last four
both SU and ITS, is 8-30 ATS when it is outrushed by a .750 or
better opponent.
WEDNESDAY - JANUARY 4th
ROSE BOWL
The Rose Bowl • Pasadena, CA
Usc over Texas by 3
The game that defines the intent of the BCS right from the
beginning of the idea is here. You couldn't have a better
matchup than this one. With winning streaks of 34 and 19
respectively, USC and Texas are, without question, the two best
football teams in the country. In the last 17 games involving
the #1 and #2 teams in the nation, the underdog has covered
14 times and Texas is 7-0 ATS against fellow bowlers this season.
In addition to those favorable numbers, teams who have the
current Heisman winner on their side flounder in postseason
play (see Awesome Angle on page 2). But despite all those
numbers, we still can't call Texas for the outright win. After
all, the favorite is 10-1 SU in the last eleven Rose Bow games
while USC has managed to outstat 20 of its last 23 opponents
on the field. We DO like the Horns to cover the number.
MONDAY - JANUARY 2nd
CAPITAL ONE BOWL
Florida Citrus Bowl • Orlando, FL
Auburn over Wisconsin by 13
If you go strictly by ITS (In the Stats) records, this one should
be easy. Auburn won every game on the field this season
despite losing to Georgia Tech and LSU. The Tigers actually
outgained their opponents by an average of 132 yards per
game on the year. Wisconsin finished the season 9-3 but only
won the stats TWICE - against sorry Indiana (by a measly eight
yards) and an even sorrier Temple. Qualifications those are not.
Sure, Wisconsin will be pumped to emerge victorious in Barry
Alvarez's last game but you can't make a silk purse (a Bowl
win) out of a sow's ear (the nation's 102nd ranked defense).
And don't think that Auburn doesn't want to win. The Tigers
(24-2 SU in their last 26 games) know who the best team in the
best conference is, and they're bound and determined to prove
it. Wisky dips to 0-6 SU & 1-5 ATS against the SEC today.
MONDAY - JANUARY 2nd
TOSTITOS FIESTA BOWL
Sun Devil Stadium • Tempe, AZ
Ohio State over Notre Dame by 6
Notre Dame is the feel good story of the year. After going
11-15 SU in their last 26 games with Tyrone Willingham at
the controls, the Irish responded to the knowledgable Charlie
Weis and won nine of their 11 games... coming within TEN
SECONDS of going 11-0. This is easily the best offense Ohio
State has seen this season (Texas included). The Buckeyes have
nothing to be ashamed of, though. Ryan Hamby's sure TD catch
that wasn't and Troy Smith's critical turnover were all that
kept Ohio State from going 11-0 this year. This is easily the
best defense Notre Dame has seen this season. Forget all that
Notre Dame bowl history. Those games had Bob Davie and
Willingham calling the shots. Remember the Ohio State history.
Jim Tressel's teams have won three straight bowl games, all
as an underdog. Go Bucks!
posted by phantom
Dec. 22 2005 1:44pm -
0 likes
ESPN Insider Picks:
Pioneer PureVision Las Vegas Bowl
California -7 vs. BYU: This matches two teams with less-than-picturesque defenses. Both Cal and BYU have offensive machines and manufacture points when needed. BYU averaged 47 points a game in its last four games (vs. Air Force, UNLV, Wyoming and Utah). Led by quarterback John Beck and a proven workhorse in running back Curtis Brown, the Cougars will be tough to stop.
But so will California. In fact, BYU won't be able to stop Cal's running game. Led by the dynamic and powerful running back tandem of Marshawn Lynch and Justin Forsett, who have run for more than 2,000 yards combined, the Golden Bears can move the ball on anybody. They have scored 35 points or more six times this year, and finished the season with a dominating 27-3 victory at Stanford. In that game, coach Jeff Tedford installed former running back Steve Levy at quarterback, replacing Joe Ayoob.
The big question is can Tedford get the Bears excited about this game? One would think he'd have them ready. Last year the Bears were upset by Texas Tech in the Holiday Bowl after going 10-1. There's no doubt they can run on BYU (the Cougars gave up 251 yards on the ground to Utah). There's no question whether BYU will be up for the game, and they'll probably have a ton of fans traveling with them. The Cougars' defensive backfield has been banged up and will need every man it can get to stop Cal.
The pick: Cal.
San Diego County Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl
Navy -2½ vs. Colorado State: With the naval base in San Diego, this figures to be pretty close to a home game for Navy. But the real problem Colorado State is going to have is with the Middies' triple option. The Rams had a lot of trouble with TCU's option attack and lost 33-6. After that defeat in early November, Colorado State went into a funk, losing to San Diego State and then barely defeating UNLV. The previous four games UNLV had been blown out by BYU, TCU, Utah and Air Force, yet Colorado State struggled at home, needing a late 75-yard punt return to win.
Navy looked terrific beating Army again, but it also looked good against just about everyone while finishing with a 7-4 record. Losses came by three points each to Maryland and Stanford early on. The Midshipmen also lost to bowl-bound Rutgers by 10 and 42-21 at Notre Dame. But they're not facing any Notre Dames here. Led by quarterback Lamar Owens and pounding RB Adam Ballard, the Middies led the nation in rushing. Navy looked like a machine winning its final three games and should have no problem running against the Rams, who allowed eight opponents' running backs to register 100-yard games.
Last year, Navy pounded New Mexico, another Mountain West team, in the Emerald Bowl, 34-19. The running dominance was evident when Navy ticked off a 26-play, 15-minute drive. Expect the Mids to control the ball the same way against Colorado State. The Rams' best hope is Justin Holland's strong arm. Navy hasn't seen a quarterback this good. He's balanced by Kyle Bell's power running, but Holland's inability to run or scramble hurts.
The pick: Navy (best bet). Also think Navy has a decided coaching edge with Paul Johnson vs. Sonny Lubick.
posted by phantom
Dec. 22 2005 1:45pm -
0 likes
Dime Player Club
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
PREMIUM PICKS
VICTOR VEGAS
CFB... BYU +8 (-115)
NBA... Cleveland -1 (-105)
CBB... SW Missouri St -18.5 (-110)
NHL... Ottawa (-150)
MIGUEL PLAZA
16-12 (57.1%) +$3,090
CFB... BYU +8 (-115)
CFB... Navy -2.5 (-119)
CBB... SW Missouri State -18.5 (-109)
NHL... Buffalo (-145)
GOOD LUCK!!!
posted by phantom
Dec. 22 2005 1:45pm -
0 likes
Dr Bob
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
we;ll keep updating them everyday..Thanks
dr bob bowl package
(December 22) Top Rated Play (3*) California Golden Bears, Poinsettia Bowl (December 22) LEAN to Navy, Fort Worth Bowl (December 23) LEAN to Kansas, Hawaii Bowl (December 24) Strong Opinion (1*) Central Florida Golden Knights, Motor City Bowl (December 26) LEAN to Akron (More Coming
posted by phantom
Dec. 22 2005 1:46pm -
0 likes
Vegas Experts Tip Of The Day
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
not to sure how they been doing this week,,most of the time very good and there free:
Colorado State Rams at Navy Midshipmen
Thursday, December 22, 10:30 P.M. EST
Navy put up big offensive numbers versus the likes of Tulane (49 points scored), Temple (38), Army (42) and Rice (41). Versus better squads the Midshipmen were somewhat held in check, scoring 21 vs. Rutgers, 21 vs. Notre Dame and 27 vs. Air Force of the Mountain West. Colorado State had back-to-back weeks in mid-season where it scored 39 vs. Wyoming and 35 vs. New Mexico and also scored 31 vs. a pathetic UNLV team in the season-finale. But it also scored just 21 vs. Utah, 14 vs. BYU, 6 vs. TCU and 10 vs. SDSU. Of note is the fact that COLORADO ST is 13-4 UNDER when playing against a good team since 1992.
Play on: Under
posted by phantom
Dec. 22 2005 1:46pm -
0 likes
Sports Reporters
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
THURSDAY, DECEMBER 22
LAS VEGAS BOWL
Sam Boyd Stadium â€â€
posted by phantom
Dec. 22 2005 1:46pm -
0 likes
Sports Reporters best bet
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
POINSETTA BOWL
Qualcomm Stadium â€â€
posted by phantom
Dec. 22 2005 1:47pm -
0 likes
winning points
COLLEGE COLLEGE BOWLS BOWLS
LAS VEGAS BOWL
(December 22 at Las Vegas, NV)
CALIFORNIA over BRIGHAM YOUNG by 11
POINSETTIA BOWL
(December 22 at San Diego, CA)
NAVY over COLORADO STATE by 6
posted by phantom
Dec. 22 2005 1:47pm -
0 likes
Marc Lawrence Best Bet
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
lawrence:
3 BEST BET
Navy over Colorado St by 13
The Middies and their counterparts, Army and Air Force,
have flourished in bowl games, in part because their
offenses are impossible to duplicate in practice and partly
because they play hard for sixty minutes no matter what
the score. Those three have nailed down a 17-5 ATS mark
in bowls since 1981. Navy is 4-1 ATS in its limited
opportunities but the Middies are 7-1 ATS against the
Mountain West and 6-0 ATS in their last eight as favorites
of less than eight points. Colorado State counters with its
stunning 33-12-2 ATS mark when pick or an underdog of
less than +14 but the Rams won the stats only once in
their last seven games. Navy is the nation's number one
rushing team, a stat worth mentioning when you know
that teams who rush for 200 or more yards in bowl games
against an .800 or worse opponent are 61-17 ATS. Swabbies
put on a show at the West Coast Naval base.
posted by phantom
Dec. 22 2005 1:48pm -
0 likes
Tony George
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Tony George
FREE PICKS
Brigham Young vs. California
Take Brigham Young Cougars
Reason:
Cal vs. BYU +7
*******
Cal is a long way from being what they were last season, but that was a butt kicking in their last Bowl Game against Texas Tech in 2004, and they play a similar team again in 2005 with BYU rolling in here with some impressive numbers, and 3 of 4 losses to Bowl teams this year for the Cougars, who have played and won in this Stadium already this year against UNLV.
Cal relies on the run to get it done, no doubt about that, but playing from behind could dispel that approach, and I assure you BYU has some horses here on offense to keep this one interesting. Ranked 8th in the nation in passing, and 13th overall on offense, BYU boasts an impressive 24 to 11 TD ratio, and for a throwing team that is impressive. Cal has some issues with turnovers on offense, and it is hard to ignore QB Ayoob's 15 TD passes to 14 ints.
All in all a shootout in Sin City in the Las Vegas Bowl, and I'll go with a Mountain West crowd backing an explosive BYU team to keep it close and make it a barnburner.
******
Cal 40 ** BYU 38
posted by phantom
Dec. 22 2005 1:48pm -
0 likes
Tom Scot
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
THURSDAY - DECEMBER 22ND - 8:00 PM - ESPN
LAS VEGAS BOWL - Las Vegas, NV
California 34 - BYU 31
In a game that should feature a ton of offense, we're calling for
the best defensive team to win the game and leaving the back
door open for the explosive Cougar attack. John Beck has
made huge strides as the starting QB for BYU and Bronco
Mendenhall has installed the first legitimate running game in
Provo in years. BYU is hard to stop, no question about that.
However, the Cougars aren't all that tough on defense. In the
three games against teams who finished with seven or more
wins this season, BYU allowed 120 points. Cal has seven wins
but NONE of them came against a team with a winning record.
The Bears struggled with the quarterback position all season
and will use third-stringer Steve Levy in this game. That gives
the Stormin' Mormons enough of an offensive edge to indeed
get in under the number. An outright BYU win no surprise.
THURSDAY - DECEMBER 22ND - 10:30 PM - ESPN
POINSETTIA BOWL - San Diego, CA
Navy 31 - Colorado St 29
With the trends on the right, you can easily make a case for
either side here. But we are rush-aholics and the Middies
should be able to run the ball against CSU. The Rams were
outrushed in every game but one this season and allowed at
least 150 in every one of their last eight games. Navy is 19-4
ATS when not favored by eight or more points when the Sailors
run for at least 150 yards. Still, Colorado State has a versatile
and prolific offense and should certainly get its share of points
in this game. The Rams have a hammer of their own in Kyle
Bell, a future NFL player in QB Justin Holland and one of the
top receivers in the country in David Anderson. By the season
stats, Navy is the best running team in the nation and the
Middies own a staggering 3.1 yards per rush advantage over
Colorado State. But, we have a huge problem with Navy's
schedule. The seven Navy wins came against teams who were
a combined 5-64 SU vs lined teams. Lean to the underRam.
These ain't picks, they're reported facts.
California- 0-8 ATS against winning non-conference teams
when favored by more than three points.
BYU- 12-2 ATS as an underdog off a SU loss against sub
.750 teams, including 5-0 ATS off a conference loss.
Navy- 17-2 SU in last 19 as a favorite and 8-0 SU and ATS as
a favorite with at least a week off between games. BUT
Colorado St- 21-4 ATS as an underdog vs sub .750 foe.
Houston- 6-38 SU against winning teams in last 44. BUT
Kansas- 6-41 SU; 13-33 ATS away from home since 1996.
Nevada- 2-14 SU against .334 or better in last 16 tries. (Favored
once in those 16 games - lost by 35). BUT
C Florida- 4-16 SU; 5-15 ATS away from home last 20.
Akron- 0-19 SU against .400 or better non-conference board
teams in last 19 tries.
Memphis- 22-6 ATS when Tigers run for 200+ against .400
or better. Memphis averages 261 rushing yards per game.
Colorado- ZERO touchdowns scored in last 10 quarters; allowed
30 ppg last seven this season.
Clemson- 45-16 ATS when scoring 24+ away from home.
Rutgers- 7-1 ATS last eight as dog of +8+.
Arizona St- 3-12 ATS favored by 7+ away from home last 15.
Boston College- 15-0 SU; 13-1 ATS when scoring 21+ and
BC defense allows nine ppg less than Broncos BUT.
Boise St- 31-0 SU on this field since September 2001.
Nebraska- 14-2 SU last 16 against Big Ten and 8-3 ATS last
11 bowl games.
Michigan- 1-15-1 ATS away from home as a favorite of -4 or
posted by phantom
Dec. 22 2005 1:49pm -
0 likes
Bowl System from Dave Fobare
Breaking the Streak: Play against any bowl team that comes off 3+ ATS wins versus an opponent that is
not.
Record: 50-33 ATS (60.2%)
Bowl Applications: Fresno State (play against Tulsa), Notre Dame (play against Ohio State) and Florida
State (play against Penn State)
Bowl System from Nelly’s Sportsline,
High Scoring Winner: Play on any bowl team that won its final game straight up despite allowing 28
points or more.
Record: 53-28-4 ATS (65%) since 1980
This week’s applications: Toledo, Nevada, Akron, Utah, Iowa, Notre Dame
Bowl System from Marc Lawrence,
Role Reversal: Play on any college bowl dog of 7 or more points that was favored by 14 or more
points in their final game of the season.
Record since 1980: 13-4 ATS (76.4%)
This week’s application: Louisville and Rutgers
posted by phantom
Dec. 22 2005 1:49pm -
0 likes
GodsPicks Full Card:
God's Picks Premium Picks for December 22, 2005
NCAA Football
4 Units on BYU
Done.
Wise Guy plays are your maximum play. Majors are .75 of Wise Guy plays. .
CFB
Wise Guy…
BYU +7’ California
Our official outlaw line is 5’. The official outlaw line is what the odds would be if there was no consideration given to public perception and balancing the action. It is the more accurate line from the standpoint of the bettor. BYU will have tons of fans traveling with them to a stadium in which they are 7-1 SU. It’s their first bowl appearance since 2001 and this one is huge for them. "When you have over half the crowd that's going to be our fans â€â€
posted by phantom
Dec. 22 2005 1:50pm -
0 likes
Vegas Expert(sp) Navy Un
Kevin O'Neill(sp) BYU--Navy
Dime Players(sp) Navy--BYU
Phil Steele(nl) BYU--Col St
Mark Mayer BYU--Navy
Rich Crew(sp) BYU
Winning Points(nl) Navy--Cal
Pointwise(nl) Col St--Navy
Harmon Forecast Col St--Calif
Ultimate Spreads Navy
Handicappers World BYU--Navy Un
Dr Bob(sp) Navy--Calif
Rich Saber Navy & Ov--Calif & Un
Tony George BYU
Athlon Sports Navy--Calif
Sports Reporter(nl) Col St--Calif
Tony Mejia Calif--Col St
Hanks Spts Pks Navy--Calif
Lenny Stevens(sp) Navy--Calif
ESPN Insiders Navy--Calif
Cappers Access Col St--Byu
Mike Rose Col St & Ov--BYU & Ov
Docs Sports(sp) Navy--Calif
ARGH Predictions BYU--Col St
Sunshine Forecast BYU
Marc Lawerence(nl) Navy--BYU
Gold Sheet(nl) Col St--Calif
posted by phantom
Dec. 22 2005 1:50pm -
0 likes
8:00p LT Profits
BYU r355
+7.5 / 3 units CFB BYU +7.5 ***BEST BET!*** (Las Vegas Bowl - Thu., 12/22, 8:00 ET) – California had some lofty expectations entering this season, but it has all been downhill since they blew a late lead in losing at UCLA back in October. The Golden Bears went just 2-4 SU and 1-5 ATS beginning with that contest and they cannot be all that enthused about ending up in a minor Bowl like this. On the other hand, BYU closed the season strong 5-2 both SU and ATS over the last seven games and the Cougars would love to culminate their year with a Bowl win over a Pac-10 team. Their offense is certainly in high gear as they averaged 41.3 points and 478.0 yards over their last three games, compared to just 19.0 points and 321.7 yards for California over the same span. The points may be a bonus here as we like BYU to win that contest straight up on the field!
posted by phantom
Dec. 22 2005 1:53pm -
0 likes
Lenny Stevens
College foots
20 star Calif
10 star Navy
posted by phantom
Dec. 22 2005 1:53pm