COLLEGE BOWL SERVICES FOR 2005
dr bob
OUTBACK BOWL
Monday, January 2
****Iowa 33 Florida (-2 ½) 20
I don't understand this line. How is it possible that Florida is favored over
Iowa? The Hawkeyes are clearly better on both sides of the line of scrimmage
and on special teams and should win this game easily. Iowa started the season
slowly with a loss to Iowa State (starting QB Drew Tate was knocked out of that
game early) and a blowout loss to Ohio State in their first 4 games and the
Hawkeyes have been underrated ever since (5-2 ATS). The Hawkeyes have an
outstanding, balanced attack that averaged 194 ground yards at 5.5 yards per
rushing play (against teams that would allow 4.7 yprp to an average team) in
their 10 Division 1A games while starting quarterback Drew Tate averaged 7.6
yards per pass play against teams that would combine to allow 5.7 yppp against
an average team (that number is adjusted for facing Ball State when they had
numerous players suspended early in the season and for facing Purdue's defense
when they were decimated in the secondary). Overall, Iowa rates at 1.4 yards
per play better than average on offense and they should have little trouble
moving the ball against a Florida defense that rates at 0.6 yppl better than
average (4.8 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.4 yppl against an
average defense ? adjusted for facing Georgia's backup quarterback and facing
Alabama when star WR Prothro was healthy). Florida faced 5 better than average
quarterbacks this season (Alabama, LSU, Vandy, South Carolina and Florida
State) and the Gators allowed 7.5 yppp in those games (to quarterbacks that
would combine to average 6.8 yppp against an average defense), so Tate should
have a good outing while the rushing attack is projected to average 5.0 yprp.
Florida's offense was barely better than average in 8 games after star receiver
Andre Caldwell was lost for the season, averaging just 5.3 yppl against teams
that would allow 5.1 yppl to an average team and the Gators aren't likely to
have success against a good Iowa defense that rates at 0.6 yppl better than
average (5.0 yppl allowed to Division 1A teams that would average 5.6 yppl
against an average defensive unit). Florida didn't average more than 5.4 yppl
in any game against a better than average defensive team this season and my
math model projects just 4.9 yppl for the Gators in this game. As you can see,
these two teams have equally good defensive units (both 0.6 yppl better than
average), but Iowa's offense (+1.4 yppl) is vastly superior to Florida's
offense (+0.2 yppl) and the Hawkeyes also have one of the nation's best special
teams units and they have a 5.5 points advantage in special teams over Florida.
My math model favors Iowa by 12 ½ points in this game and they are an underdog.
What a gift. I'll take Iowa in a 4-Star Best Bet and I'll lean slightly with
the Over.
Downgrade Iowa to a 3-Star Best Bet if they pick or favored by 3 or less
(2-Stars if they become a favorite of more than 3 points).
FIESTA BOWL
Monday, January 2
****Ohio State (-4) 35 Notre Dame 17
Notre Dame has a very good offensive team, but it may surprise some of you to
know that Ohio State has an even better offense and the rest of this game is
even more of a mismatch. Notre Dame averaged a very good 6.3 yards per play
this season, against a schedule of teams that would combine to allow 5.1 yppl
to an average team. As good as that is, the Irish attack is at a disadvantage
against an Ohio State defense that is 1.7 yppl better than average, allowing
just 4.3 yppl to a tough schedule that would combine to average 6.0 yppl
against an average defensive unit. Notre Dame faced three teams with
outstanding defensive units this season - Michigan, USC, and Tennessee - and
the Irish averaged only 4.5 yppl in those 3 games (those defenses would allow
4.3 yppl to an average team) and I don't see them having success against a
Buckeyes' defense that is the best in the nation. Ohio State's offense,
meanwhile, shouldn't have any trouble moving the ball in this game. The
Buckeyes averaged a healthy 6.0 yppl this season (against teams that would
allow just 4.9 yppl to an average team), but that attack blossomed once Troy
Smith became the undisputed starting quarterback in game 4 after serving a
suspension in game 1 and splitting time with Justin Zwick the next two games.
In 8 games with Smith at quarterback fulltime, the Buckeyes averaged 6.5 yppl
against teams that would allow just 4.9 yppl to an average attack. Smith
averaged 8.4 yards per pass play (against teams that would allow only 5.2 yppp
to an average quarterback) and he also averaged 5.7 yards per rushing play
while compiling 624 yards with his scrambles. Including Smith's snaps in games
2 and 3, the Buckeyes were 1.4 yppl better than average with Smith under
center. The Buckeyes will move the ball with ease in this game against a
mediocre Irish defense that gave up 5.6 yppl this season to teams that would
combine to allow 5.8 yppl against an average defensive team. Notre Dame's
defense is 0.3 yppl worse than the average defense that Ohio State faced during
the regular season, so I expect the Buckeyes to top the 34 points per game that
they averaged with Smith at quarterback. Ohio State is not only better on both
sides of the ball, but the Buckeyes have one of the top 3 special teams units
in the nation and my math model favors Ohio State by 17 ½ points in this game.
That may seem unrealistic to some of you, but remember that my math model has
been picking Ohio State all season long and the Buckeyes' 6 straight spread
wins entering this game is evidence that they are an underrated team. In fact,
my math model would favor Ohio State against both USC and Texas and it's too
bad that Ohio State started Zwick at quarterback in their 22-25 loss to Texas
in week 2. The Buckeyes' only other loss came at Penn State, a team that I rate
as the 4th best team in the nation, and they outgained the Nittany Lions on the
road 3.8 yppl to 3.5 yppl (lost because of -2 in turnover margin). As far as
Notre Dame goes, you may remember that my math model had them favored by 7.7
points at Stanford in a game they won by just 7 points. The numbers don't lie
and Notre Dame is simply not near the same class of team that Ohio State is.
The only reason the Irish are getting respect from the public (and thus the
linesmaker) is because the entire country watched them almost beat top-ranked
USC at home in a 31-34 loss. However, Notre Dame averaged just 4.8 yppl in that
game while allowing USC to average 7.4 yppl. The miracle was not the Notre Dame
almost beat USC, but that the game was even close. The Irish were also out
played 3.4 yppl to 4.6 yppl in their 17-10 win over Michigan ? the only other
really good team that Notre Dame faced this season. However, their memorable
game against USC is the reason why the pointspread on this game is so low and
I'll take full advantage of public misperception and take Ohio State in a
4-Star Best Bet.
