4 replies:

1. Pinnacle Pulse

   The inside line from PinnacleSports.com

   by Simon Noble

   12/07/2005 10:21PM EST

   Welcome to the Pinnacle Pulse where the line managers at PinnacleSports.com look to give you an insider’s view of the point spread movement on key games each week and provide you with a little gambling theory to help you find a smarter way to bet courtesy of Pinnacle Sports.

   Indianapolis Colts Chances for Perfection

   The talk of this NFL season has been how the Indianapolis Colts have dominated their opponents on their way to an astounding 12-0 start. Only the 1972 Dolphins have finished with an unblemished regular season record and no team has gone undefeated since the schedule was expanded to 16 regular season games. With this in mind, one has to wonder what the chances are that Indianapolis will win out its last 4 games.

   Next up on the schedule are the Jacksonville Jaguars, the only team to have a second-half lead against the Colts. In their first meeting, Jacksonville was up 3-0 before losing 10-3. The moneyline on this game at Pinnacle Sports is -316/+296, which suggests that Indy will win this match-up 74.7% (306/406) of the time.

   At 12-0, Indianapolis has already clinched a playoff spot and if they defeat the Jaguars, the Colts will also secure home field advantage throughout the playoffs. This adds a new twist to the equation: Will Coach Tony Dungy rest his key players? When interviewed, he was unsure. A quarterback has about a 1 in 16 chance of getting injured if he plays a full game. For this reason, it’s common for playoff-bound teams in meaningless games to rest key starters. Despite Dungy’s ambiguous answers to questions on resting players, I think he’ll maintain his focus on winning the Super Bowl.

   If they reach 13-0, the Colts would then host the Chargers with home field advantage locked up. If this game were played two weeks earlier, the Colts would be about an 11-point favorite (-830/+750). In that scenario, Indy would win about 88.7% of the time. In past seasons, the lines have adjusted about 6 points for teams in “rest situationsâ€Â

   

   posted by phantom

   Dec. 10, 2005 11:20pm
2. Sunday, December 11th

   Tampa Bay at Carolina, 1:00 EST

   Tampa Bay: 5-15 ATS off a straight up win

   Carolina: 28-13 ATS in December

   New England at Buffalo, 1:00 EST

   New England: 13-3 ATS with a line of +3 to -3

   Buffalo: 15-6 Under with a line of +3 to -3

   St. Louis at Minnesota, 1:00 EST

   St. Louis: 0-6 ATS after allowing 200+ rushing yards

   Minnesota: 16-6 ATS at home off a win by 6 points or less

   Chicago at Pittsburgh, 1:00 EST

   Chicago: 5-21 ATS away in December

   Pittsburgh: 17-7 ATS off an Over

   Oakland at New York Jets, 1:00 EST

   Oakland: 8-23 ATS vs. conference opponents

   NY Jets: 5-1 ATS off 6+ losses

   Indianapolis at Jacksonville, 1:00 EST

   Indianapolis: 6-0 ATS in road games

   Jacksonville: 3-12 ATS off BB ATS wins as a favorite

   Houston at Tennessee, 1:00 EST

   Houston: 8-1 Under in December

   Tennessee: 1-9 ATS in December

   Cleveland at Cincinnati, 1:00 EST

   Cleveland: 2-9 ATS away off a home game

   Cincinnati: 12-3 Over at home off a win as an underdog

   Washington at Arizona, 4:05 EST

   Washington: 12-3 ATS away vs. NFC West opponents

   Arizona: 1-7 ATS as an underdog

   New York Giants at Philadelphia, 4:05 EST

   NY Giants: 8-1 ATS vs. conference opponents

   Philadelphia: 9-1 Under at home off an Over

   San Francisco at Seattle, 4:05 EST

   San Francisco: 6-2 Over last four weeks of the season

   Seattle: 3-11 ATS off a win by 21+ points

   Miami at San Diego, 4:15 EST

   Miami: 1-8 ATS off a straight up win

   San Diego: 10-1 ATS off BB wins

   Baltimore at Denver, 4:15 EST

   Baltimore: 0-6 ATS off a home game

   Denver: 6-0 ATS at home off an Over

   Kansas City at Dallas, 4:15 EST

   Kansas City: 12-25 ATS away off a division win

   Dallas: 19-8 ATS at home off BB ATS losses

   Detroit at Green Bay, 8:30 EST ESPN

   Detroit: 15-5 ATS off 3+ ATS losses

   Green Bay: 10-0 Over off 3+ losses

   ** (TC) Denotes Time Change

   Monday, December 12th

   New Orleans at Atlanta, 9:00 EST ABC

   New Orleans: 7-1 Under last four weeks of the season

   Atlanta: 6-0 ATS off a road loss

   

   posted by phantom

   Dec. 11, 2005 12:05pm
3. TAMPA BAY (8 - 4) at CAROLINA (9 - 3) - 12/11/2005, 1:00 PM

   Top Trends for this game.

   TAMPA BAY is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in road games in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.

   CAROLINA is 84-59 ATS (+19.1 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.

   CAROLINA is 77-52 ATS (+19.8 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.

   CAROLINA is 28-13 ATS (+13.7 Units) in December games since 1992.

   Head-to-Head Series History

   CAROLINA is 5-0 against the spread versus TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons

   CAROLINA is 5-0 straight up against TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons

   3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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   NEW ENGLAND (7 - 5) at BUFFALO (4 - - 12/11/2005, 1:00 PM

   Top Trends for this game.

   NEW ENGLAND is 13-3 ATS (+9.7 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 over the last 3 seasons.

   NEW ENGLAND is 33-15 ATS (+16.5 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.

   NEW ENGLAND is 33-15 ATS (+16.5 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.

   NEW ENGLAND is 25-11 ATS (+12.9 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.

   NEW ENGLAND is 11-1 ATS (+9.9 Units) in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points over the last 2 seasons.

   NEW ENGLAND is 24-11 ATS (+11.9 Units) against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.

   NEW ENGLAND is 25-7 ATS (+17.3 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.

   NEW ENGLAND is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) versus division opponents over the last 3 seasons.

   NEW ENGLAND is 34-18 ATS (+14.2 Units) in December games since 1992.

   Head-to-Head Series History

   NEW ENGLAND is 3-2 against the spread versus BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons

   NEW ENGLAND is 4-1 straight up against BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons

   4 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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   ST LOUIS (5 - 7) at MINNESOTA (7 - 5) - 12/11/2005, 1:00 PM

   Top Trends for this game.

   MINNESOTA is 35-55 ATS (-25.5 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.

   Head-to-Head Series History

   ST LOUIS is 1-0 against the spread versus MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons

   ST LOUIS is 1-0 straight up against MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons

   1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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   CHICAGO (9 - 3) at PITTSBURGH (7 - 5) - 12/11/2005, 1:00 PM

   Top Trends for this game.

   CHICAGO is 5-20 ATS (-17.0 Units) in road games in the last 4 weeks of the regular season since 1992.

   CHICAGO is 5-21 ATS (-18.1 Units) in road games in December games since 1992.

   PITTSBURGH is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points over the last 3 seasons.

   Head-to-Head Series History

   There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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   OAKLAND (4 - at NY JETS (2 - 10) - 12/11/2005, 1:00 PM

   Top Trends for this game.

   OAKLAND is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 over the last 3 seasons.

   OAKLAND is 14-28 ATS (-16.8 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.

   OAKLAND is 18-38 ATS (-23.8 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.

   OAKLAND is 9-21 ATS (-14.1 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season since 1992.

   OAKLAND is 14-28 ATS (-16.8 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.

   OAKLAND is 8-23 ATS (-17.3 Units) against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.

   NY JETS are 8-21 ATS (-15.1 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.

   Head-to-Head Series History

   NY JETS is 0-0 against the spread versus OAKLAND over the last 3 seasons

   NY JETS is 1-0 straight up against OAKLAND over the last 3 seasons

   1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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   INDIANAPOLIS (12 - 0) at JACKSONVILLE (9 - 3) - 12/11/2005, 1:00 PM

   Top Trends for this game.

   INDIANAPOLIS is 19-10 ATS (+8.0 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.

   INDIANAPOLIS is 12-2 ATS (+9.8 Units) off a win against a division rival over the last 3 seasons.

   INDIANAPOLIS is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) after 2 or more consecutive wins this season.

   INDIANAPOLIS is 19-10 ATS (+8.0 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.

   INDIANAPOLIS is 19-8 ATS (+10.2 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.

   INDIANAPOLIS is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in road games this season.

   INDIANAPOLIS is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in road lined games this season.

   INDIANAPOLIS is 13-3 ATS (+9.7 Units) off a division game over the last 3 seasons.

   Head-to-Head Series History

   JACKSONVILLE is 3-2 against the spread versus INDIANAPOLIS over the last 3 seasons

   INDIANAPOLIS is 3-2 straight up against JACKSONVILLE over the last 3 seasons

   3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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   HOUSTON (1 - 11) at TENNESSEE (3 - 9) - 12/11/2005, 1:00 PM

   Top Trends for this game.

   TENNESSEE is 6-15 ATS (-10.5 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.

   TENNESSEE is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) in December games over the last 3 seasons.

   Head-to-Head Series History

   HOUSTON is 3-2 against the spread versus TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons

   TENNESSEE is 3-2 straight up against HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons

   4 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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   CLEVELAND (4 - at CINCINNATI (9 - 3) - 12/11/2005, 1:00 PM

   Top Trends for this game.

   CLEVELAND is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.

   CLEVELAND is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.

   CLEVELAND is 7-16 ATS (-10.6 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.

   CINCINNATI is 40-62 ATS (-28.2 Units) versus division opponents since 1992.

   Head-to-Head Series History

   CINCINNATI is 3-2 against the spread versus CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons

   CINCINNATI is 3-2 straight up against CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons

   3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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   WASHINGTON (6 - 6) at ARIZONA (4 - - 12/11/2005, 4:05 PM

   Top Trends for this game.

   WASHINGTON is 36-60 ATS (-30.0 Units) as a favorite since 1992.

   WASHINGTON is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) as a road favorite of 3 points or less since 1992.

   WASHINGTON is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) in road games against NFC West division opponents since 1992.

   ARIZONA is 1-7 ATS (-6.7 Units) as an underdog this season.

   Head-to-Head Series History

   There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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   NY GIANTS (8 - 4) at PHILADELPHIA (5 - 7) - 12/11/2005, 4:05 PM

   Top Trends for this game.

   PHILADELPHIA is 36-20 ATS (+14.0 Units) revenging a loss against opponent since 1992.

   PHILADELPHIA is 102-71 ATS (+23.9 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.

   NY GIANTS are 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) against conference opponents this season.

   Head-to-Head Series History

   PHILADELPHIA is 4-1 against the spread versus NY GIANTS over the last 3 seasons

   PHILADELPHIA is 4-1 straight up against NY GIANTS over the last 3 seasons

   3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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   SAN FRANCISCO (2 - 10) at SEATTLE (10 - 2) - 12/11/2005, 4:05 PM

   Top Trends for this game.

   SAN FRANCISCO is 29-47 ATS (-22.7 Units) as an underdog since 1992.

   SEATTLE is 12-27 ATS (-17.7 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.

   Head-to-Head Series History

   SEATTLE is 3-2 against the spread versus SAN FRANCISCO over the last 3 seasons

   SEATTLE is 5-0 straight up against SAN FRANCISCO over the last 3 seasons

   3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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   MIAMI (5 - 7) at SAN DIEGO (8 - 4) - 12/11/2005, 4:15 PM

   Top Trends for this game.

   MIAMI is 19-37 ATS (-21.7 Units) in December games since 1992.

   SAN DIEGO is 21-6 ATS (+14.4 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.

   SAN DIEGO is 10-1 ATS (+8.9 Units) after 2 or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasons.

   SAN DIEGO is 12-1 ATS (+10.9 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.

   SAN DIEGO is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.

   SAN DIEGO is 21-6 ATS (+14.4 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.

   SAN DIEGO is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.

   SAN DIEGO is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest this season.

   SAN DIEGO is 19-6 ATS (+12.4 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.

   MIAMI is 26-10 ATS (+15.0 Units) against AFC West division opponents since 1992.

   SAN DIEGO is 18-33 ATS (-18.3 Units) in home games off a division game since 1992.

   Head-to-Head Series History

   MIAMI is 1-0 against the spread versus SAN DIEGO over the last 3 seasons

   MIAMI is 1-0 straight up against SAN DIEGO over the last 3 seasons

   1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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   BALTIMORE (4 - at DENVER (9 - 3) - 12/11/2005, 4:15 PM

   There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

   Head-to-Head Series History

   BALTIMORE is 1-0 against the spread versus DENVER over the last 3 seasons

   BALTIMORE is 1-0 straight up against DENVER over the last 3 seasons

   1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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   KANSAS CITY (8 - 4) at DALLAS (7 - 5) - 12/11/2005, 4:15 PM

   Top Trends for this game.

   KANSAS CITY is 12-25 ATS (-15.5 Units) in road games off a win against a division rival since 1992.

   Head-to-Head Series History

   There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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   DETROIT (4 - at GREEN BAY (2 - 10) - 12/11/2005, 8:30 PM

   Top Trends for this game.

   GREEN BAY is 33-18 ATS (+13.2 Units) in the last 4 weeks of the regular season since 1992.

   GREEN BAY is 35-20 ATS (+13.0 Units) in December games since 1992.

   Head-to-Head Series History

   DETROIT is 3-2 against the spread versus GREEN BAY over the last 3 seasons

   GREEN BAY is 3-2 straight up against DETROIT over the last 3 seasons

   4 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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   NEW ORLEANS (3 - 9) at ATLANTA (7 - 5) - 12/12/2005, 9:00 PM

   Top Trends for this game.

   NEW ORLEANS is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in road games versus division opponents over the last 3 seasons.

   Head-to-Head Series History

   NEW ORLEANS is 4-1 against the spread versus ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons

   NEW ORLEANS is 3-2 straight up against ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons

   3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

   

   posted by phantom

   Dec. 11, 2005 12:06pm
4. NFL Week 14 analysis

   Buccaneers (8-4) @ Panthers (9-3)-Carolina won eight of last nine games (6-1-1 vs spread in last eight), one of which was 34-14 win at Tampa, when Carolina outgained Bucs just 287-270, but had +4 TO ratio, and averaged 11.1 yards per pass attempt. Tampa lost three of last four visits to this site; they're 3-1 in last four games, 4-2 on road, but are just 2-5 vs spread after a win and converted only 8 of last 32 on third down, as Simms making neither big plays or many mistakes. Panthers have 10 INT's in last five games (+8 TO ratio) and haven't allowed TD in three of last four games (one on last 41 enemy drives). Seven of last 10 series totals were 35 or less. Last four Carolina games stayed under total.

   Patriots (7-5) @ Bills (4-8)- Pats won nine of last 10 series games, winning five of last six visits to this site; in first meeting this year, NE won 21-16, despite being outgained 394-273, and converting just 1-7 on third down (Bills led 3-0 at half). Last week's loss (had ball inside Miami 10, up 23-3 in third quarter, and they lost) was third straight for Buffalo squad that had high hopes this summer; they've run ball for just 68 yards a game over last four weeks, and allowed last three foes to convert 23-45 on third down, while outscoring Bills 44-5 in second half. Pats won three of last four games (wins by 7-7-13); their last four games stayed under the total. In their last seven games, Patriots scored 36 points in first half, 105 in second.

   Rams (5-7) @ Vikings (7-5)-Minnesota won, covered last five games, throwing 43 less incompletions than their foes, with Johnson more accurate than injured Culpepper; they won last four home games, by 17-3-13-12 points and are 4-1 as favorite this season. Rams without starting QB, coach, RT, and their DB's are crippled by injuries; they've allowed 30 ppg in four games since their bye (1-3) and are 2-4 vs spread on road, with wins at lowly Arizona, Houston. Home side won seven of last eight series games, with Rams scoring 45.7 ppg in winning last three games, but they're 0-3 in this dome; their last win in Twin Cities was back in '78, when they were winning NFC West every year. Last five series totals were 48+.

   Bears (9-3) @ Steelers (7-5)- Is right team favored here? Chicago won last eight games, allowing 31 points in last four (two TDs on last 49 opp. drives); they're 5-2 vs spread as dog this season, 8-0 SU if they score more than 10 points. Steelers lost last three games, turning ball over eight times, as foes started 10 of last 38 drives in Pitt territory. Bears won last three road games, are 4-1 vs spread out of town, but their offense is awful; last week, they were 0-10 on third down, averaged 2.5 yards per pass attempt, turned ball over twice and were 3-and-out on 7 of 13 drives, but they still covered as 7-point favorite, thanks to dominating defense. Under is 9-1 in last 10 Chicago games, 1-5 in Steeler home games.

   Raiders (4-8) @ Jets (2-10)- Jets are awful, losing last seven games (1-6 vs spread) but can anyone give points with Raiders on road? Oakland tanked in second half at Chargers last week, are traveling cross country to play at cold weather site after losing four of last five games, and may be starting Tuiasosopo at QB in place of inaccurate Collins. Jets have scored one offensive TD on last 35 drives in last four games, and haven't led at half since Week 2 vs Miami. Under is 4-1 in last five Oakland road games, 3-1 in last four Jet games. Raiders have won five of last seven series games, but lost last game in OT in '03 playoffs; they're 2-4 on road, allowing 23+ points in five of the six games.

   Colts (12-0) @ Jaguars (9-3)- Colts have actually been better on road this year, winning by 17-21-25-18-19-8 (@ Cincy) points. Indy goes for 13 straight here vs Jaguar club that outgained them 303-268 in 10-3 Week 2 loss; Manning was just 13-28/122 passing, as Colts scored one TD on 10 drives, with only one FG tried. Colts won seven of nine series games, with one of last five wins by more than seven points. Jax won its last five games (last three on road); they're 3-0 vs spread as dog, 4-1 SU at home; their losses are by 7,13 (20-7 vs Denver), 3 points. Indy is 58 for 98 (59.2%) on third down since Week 4. Tough task for Jags' backup QB Garrard, who has played well. Over is 5-2-1 in last eight Colt games, 5-2 in last seven Jag games.

   Texans (1-11) @ Titans (3-9)-Houston had painful last-second losses last two weeks; they've lost last five games, allowing 31+ points in three of last four, but they've covered three of last four road games, losing by 6,7,14 points. Tennessee is 1-6 since their 34-20 win at Houston in Week 5, when they held Carr to 96 yards passing and were perfect in red zone scoring four TD's. Titans won five of seven series games, with Texans losing two of three at this site (by 7,21 points). Fisher's club is 1-0 as favorite in '05; their wins this season are by 15-14-11 points- they're just 5 for last 28 on third down. Texans ran ball better (124,165 yards) in last two games. Over is 5-3 in last eight Titan games, 3-1 in last four Texan tilts.

   Browns (4-8) @ Bengals (9-3)-Cincy doing everything right, winning four of last five games (only loss to 12-0 Colts); they're just 2-4 as home favorite, though, winning by 29,6,7,13 points in six home games. Bengals won 27-13 at Cleveland Opening Day, as Palmer was 26-34/272 passing on much nicer day than he'll get here. Red-hot Bengal offense scored 3+ TD's in each of last five games (20 TDs on last 54 drives); nine of their last 36 drives started in enemy territory. Cleveland started rookie QB Frye for first time last week; he was 13-20/205 in 20-13 loss to Jags, their sixth loss in last eight games. Browns are 1-6 if they allow more than 14 points; eight of their last ten games stayed under total, while Bengals' last three all went over.

   Redskins (6-6) @ Cardinals (4-8)- First time these former division rivals have met since '02; six of last seven series totals were 37 or less. Arizona just 1-4 at home, but they won last two road games, two of three overall, as Warner has thrown for 316.8 ypg over last five weeks. Cards are 0-3 vs spread after win this year, losing 34-13/24-20/24-17; they're 14-28 vs spread in game after their last 42 wins, and still haven't rushed for 100 yards in game this season, but have scored 17.4 ppg in second half of last five games. Redskins are 6-1 if they allow 17 or less points, 0-5 if they don't; five of their last six games stayed under the total. NFC West teams are 4-14 vs spread as non-division dogs, 3-4 at home.

   Giants (8-4) @ Eagles (5-7)- Hard to endorse anything about Philly after 42-0 home loss Monday, when Westbrook became fourth Pro Bowl Eagle lost for season with injury; neither QB option is viable, and they have no third QB. Giants won first meeting three weeks ago 27-17, despite allowing McMahon-led Eagles 404 total yards and 9.6 yards per pass attempt. Philly is in freefall, losing five of last six games (they had +4 turnover ratio in only win, 19-14 over 3-9 Packers). Eagles are 1-6 this season when they get less than three takeaways; look for Johnson to blitz heavily, in hopes of forcing Manning into mistakes so that Eagle defense can score. Under is 5-1-2 in last eight Giant games, 5-3 in last eight Eagle contests.

   49ers (2-10) @ Seahawks (9-3)-Seattle has division clinched, but first round bye and home field thru NFC playoffs are big fish they're trying to reel in; three weeks ago, Seattle sleepwalked thru 27-25 win at Candlestick Point, outgaining 49ers just 373-336, outrushing them 145-110. Niners lost last five games; they're 0-5 on road, losing by 39-17-35-8-11 points (1-4 as road dog, and they were +2 in turnovers in game they covered). Seattle won last five series games, winning last two at this site 20-19/34-0; they're on short work week, but Monday night win was so easy, shouldn't be much of hangover here. Four of five 49er road games went over the total. This is first turf game of year for 49ers, by the way.

   Dolphins (5-7) @ Chargers (8-4)- Teams swapped backup QB's at trading deadline, so there is knowledge of each other's systems here. San Diego scored total of 43 points in losing last five series games, last of which was played in Arizona due to San Diego wild fires in '03. Bolts are on fire themselves right now, winning five games in row, covering six of last seven; they won last three home games by 8,38,24 points. Fish won two in row for first time this year, rallying from 23-3 third quarter deficit behind sub QB Rosenfels, who returns to bench here. In last five games, San Diego scored 20 TDs on last 55 possessions. Miami allowed 21+ points in each of last four games; they're 2-4 as road dog this season. Under is 5-2 in last seven Charger games, 4-2 in last six Miami tilts.

   Ravens (4-8) @ Broncos (9-3)-Denver trying to fend Bengals off for critical 2nd seed in AFC and first round bye; they dominated this foe when Ravens were in Cleveland, with consecutive heart-breaking playoff wins, but since switch to Baltimore, Ravens won last four series games, last losing to Denver in '96. Broncos are 2-0 vs spread after loss this season, are 9-2 vs spread in last 11 games, going 5-1 vs spread at home, with wins by 3-20-2-8-28-27 points; three of their last four wins are by 14+ points. AFC North teams are 3-9 vs spread as non-division dog, 3-7 on road. AFC West squads are 21-9 vs spread out of division, 10-5 as home favorite. Ravens are 0-3 vs spread after win this year, losing by 35-17/10-6/42-29 scores.

   Chiefs (8-4) @ Cowboys (7-5)-Pair of desperate teams here, as Dallas lost last two games to slip into tough spot, while Chiefs won last three games to stay close, but still behind, in difficult AFC race. AFC West squads are 21-9 vs spread in non-division games, 11-4 on road. KC scored 34 ppg in winning last three games (11 TDs on 31 drives); they've run ball for 164 yards per game in last four weeks, but lost only previous carpet game, 14-3 in last loss, at Buffalo. Dallas is 4-2 at home, allowing 12.8 ppg, with losses in OT vs Denver and 14-13 vs Washington, when Skins scored twice in last 5:00. Under is 7-2 in last nine Dallas games, 4-2 in last six KC tilts. Home side won last five meetings in seldom-played series.

   Lions (4-8) @ Packers (3-9)- Not much to choose from here, as both sides lost last three games; Detroit won season opener 17-3 over Pack, outrushing them 102-46, with a +3 turnover margin, holding Favre to 3.5 yards per pass attempt, but Lions lost their last 14 games in Dairy State, with nine of last ten losses here by 9+ points. Pack is 1-2 as favorite this year, but they've allowed 153.2 rushing yards per game over last five weeks. Lions only had three RBs active last week, and one got hurt, so their offense is crippled, since Garcia can't throw long ball with any zip. Detroit is 1-4 on road, 2-2 as road dog. Pack scored three TDs on last 29 drives. Under is 6-2 in last eight Packer games, 5-2 in last seven Detroit games.

   Saints (3-9) @ Falcons (7-5)-Atlanta lost three of last four games, needs wins to stay in playoff hunt; this is their arch-rival, and two QB's are cousins. Falcons won first meeting 34-31 in Alamo, when Falcons missed late FG, but got second chance on marginal call vs Saints, who outgained Atlanta 456-266, outrushing them 211-160. Falcons lost three of last four home games, allowing 31-33-30 points in losses. Saints haven't traveled well this year (1-5 in last six road games) but they're 3-2 in last five visits to this site, and they did win Sunday night game at Jets on last road trip. Three of last four series games were won by exactly three points. This is rivalry, and being national TV game, you'll get full effort from Saints, whose last three losses are by 3-7-7 points.

   

   posted by phantom

   Dec. 11, 2005 12:07pm