*****interesting info-----copied to us at gotpicks****

With March Madness upon us, we thought it a prudent time to verify or disprove some common assumptions made by gamblers about NCAA Tournament trends. This report covers the past three tournaments, so understand that the data size is certainly limited. It does, however, shed some light on the here and now of NCAA Tournament capping. We will be back in throughout the month of March with more of a historical analysis, along with team analysis. Without further ado, let’s get to it!

Assumption: Playing the #1 seed in the first round of the tournament is a good investment.

Our answer is a resounding and emphatic… Sort of. It is true that No. 1 seeds are 8-4 ATS in first round games over the past three years. However, they are just 4-4 ATS in each of the past two tournaments. The three year data is a bit skewed by the spotless 4-0 ATS mark top seeds accomplished back in 2001. Of interest to many is that Duke has been a top seed twice in the past three years and is 2-0 ATS in these spots. So, perhaps, the Dukies could be worth a look in round one should the selection committee hand them a top seed.

Assumption: The #8 vs. #9 match up is a toss up.

Absolutely. The year to year results make a pendulum appear stable. No. 8 seeds went just 1-3 ATS last year. This was in complete contrast to 2002 when they went a perfect 4-0 ATS. In 2001, the results were deadlocked at 2-2 ATS. These games are almost always competitively priced, as nine of the twelve match-ups over the past three years had a closing line between -2 and +2.

The #5 vs. #12 match up is a smart underdog situation.

This is the truth fellas. The No. 12 seed is 8-4 ATS in first round games over the past three years. In each of the past two tournaments, No. 12 seeds are 3-1 ATS vs. No. 5 seeds. The higher seed was chalk in all but one of the twelve matches. The lone exception was in 2002 when the No. 5 Miami Hurricanes were +1 against the Missouri Tigers. The oddsmakers nailed that one, however, as the Felines pounced the Canes 93-80.

Assumption: Favorites always cover in the Final Four.

Not true. Including all semi finals and championship games over the past three years, favorites are actually 4-5 ATS. With the whole enchilada up for grabs, favorites are 1-2 ATS in the National Championship game over the same time span. Overall, the oddsmakers know exactly what they are doing in the final rounds as favorites vs. dogs are deadlocked at 3-3 ATS over the past six years. The point being is that there are no definitive chalk/pup trends in the final two rounds of the tournament.

A Final Piece of Advice

We will leave you with one final thought that is not an assumption of any sort, but rather one of the most evident truths in all of sports betting. Never base your wagers solely on blind trends. Make sure there is an explanation or supporting analysis to supplement the trend before wagering a red penny. Whether it be fundamental, situational, recent team patterns, etc; make sure your handicapping is a process based on several methodologies of which are based in reason rather than sightless chance.

A French gentlemen by the name of Voltaire, who was known to do a bit of philosophizing, uttered a few interesting thoughts back in the day. One that comes to mind pertaining to our point is; “Chance is a word devoid of sense, nothing can exist without a cause.â€Â