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I celebrate my 36th birthday on Sunday. This is why I post all of my NFL plays at therx.com this week. I should be back very late Sunday night as I'm spending the weekend with my wife at the G-Cup.

Happy Thanksgiving to all of you and as always, good luck !

Baltimore +9 @ Cincy

No Play / No Lean

Cincy is 6-0 (winning by 15 ppg on average) vs the teams <.500 and only 1-3 vs the teams >.500 so far this season. And that stat tells me that they are a good team, but just not ready to lift their game up to another level. Many talked about how great the Bengals are, before the game vs the Steelers, and Cincy lost that game big time. Same happened when they went to Jacksonville, but once again, they choked against a winning team. And then last week, they were supposed to compete against the Colts, but they never did. This week they are facing the Ravens, and despite a top 5 red zone efficiency edge of the week that Cincy has in this game, despite the 6-0 record vs losing teams this year, despite the #1 turnover edge this week in the NFL, I just can't lay this many points with them, against a Baltimore team that was playing with poise last week against the Ben-less Steelers. The Ravens have no chance of making the playoffs but I do expect them to play hard in divisional games the rest of the season, trying to build up a momentum for next season. Baltimore is the #1 defensive edge play this week, and since I give a lot more value to defense than to the offense, I just can't fade them this week. There are two very solid systems supporting both teams and that's just another reason to pass on it.

Play against road dogs revenging a home loss of more than 3 pts after a home dog win: 51-25-3 ATS L20Y (Play on Cincy)

Same system is 17-1 SU and 17-1 ATS if the opp lost last game as dog as well (Play on Cincy)

Play against home favs, vs revenge (winning last HTH game on the road), after a HL 7+pts: 30-9 ATS L15Y (Play on Baltimore)

Carolina -4 @ Buffalo

Play: Buffalo +4

Full Play Teaser With Arizona

Carolina has a solid redzone efficiency edge in this matchup, but I'm not so sure about their chances to win and cover the spread on Sunday. Actually, I'm leaning towards Buffalo in this game. As I predicted last week, a team playing most of their games in hot/confortable weather early on, and with no ground game whatsoever, usually struggles on the road late in the season in cold weather. That's exactly what happened to the Panthers last week at Chicago. They were unable to do anything on offense and they lost that game early on. Well, I think it will be more of the same this week. Buffalo is very solid at home, with a 4-1 record and they are always taugh in their stadium in November. Lossman is 1-1 with a 84.21 rating and 3 TD -1 Int ratio since he is starting again, compared to 1-3 record and 55.85 rating in his first 4 starts of the season, before he was replaced by Holcomb. On the other hand, Delhomme was almost perfect in weeks 3-9 with a 13-5 TD/Int ratio, but in last two weeks he is 1-1, with 1 TD and 4 interceptions and quarterback ratings of 54.2 and 45.6. Well this is what happens when you are so one-dimensional on offense like Panthers. As the season goes on, the opponents are better and better in terms of adjusting to one-dimensional teams like Carolina. And that adjustment should not be hard for Buffalo, as they are the sixth best pass defense team in the league (they were #2 before they were crushed on the road in SD). And while their run defense sucks, I don't see Carolina taking advantage there, with their running offense that is ranked #26 in rushing yards per game and #31 in yards per rush. They average 3 ypr overall this season, 2.8 in last three games and 2.7 on the road. Carolina's road wins came against Arizona by 4 (Catching the Cardinals right after their game in Mexico that was played in a very high altitude), by 1 at Detroit on a last minute TD, and by 20 at Tampa (and that was TB's season low, after getting embarassed in SF the previous week, with Simms as their new QB). Actually in that Tampa game, the Buccaneers killed themselves with 2 fumbles and 2 interceptions. So basically, they only had one decent road game all season long. Buffalo played a bunch off no-names at home this season, but they did beat KC 14-3 in their last home game. Crucial game for the Bills, who need this win badly to stay close to New England in the divisional title race. Just as important for them as it is for the Panthers.

Play on home dogs in non conference games if both teams of a loss, weeks 7+: 11-0 ATS, 9-2 SU L6Y (Play on Buffalo)

Play against road favs in non conference games, if their next game is at home vs division: 62-36 ATS L20Y (Play on Buffalo)

Play on home dogs in weeks 11 or later if averaging 110+ ryds vs opp avg 100- 22-8 ATS L15Y (Play on Buffalo)

Chicago +3 @ Tampa Bay

No Play / No lean

Chicago has all the key statistical edges in this game, including the redzone (althaugh not as big of an edge as it was in previous 4 or 5 weeks), the defense (2nd best edge this week) and the running game. For both teams this is a rare game vs a winning team, as both teams had a rather easy schedule ytd. Both teams on a winning streak as well. However, Chicago outgained five straight opponents on their 6 game winning streak, while TB was outgained badly by both opponents on their own two game winning streak. Orton actually has a better TD/INT ratio on the road than at home this season, and Chicago looks like a team that learned how to win both at home and on the road with a rookie QB. Orton has already seen several good defensive teams, as he faced CAR, BAL, MIN, CIN and WAS so far this season. Actually even Cleveland's defense could be considered solid, as they allow less ppg than TB this season. As for Simms, this will be the best defense he has seen all year long, as the Bears are ranked #1 - #3 in most defensive stats in the NFL. So far this season Simms faced SF, ATL, WAS and CAR, and only Carolina is a top 10 defense in the NFL. TB defense is not doing well lately either as they allowed 27 or more in last three games, compared to 16 or less in all their previous games this season. But, since I really expect TB to try really hard to win this game, before hitting the road for the next three games, and since I feel that this Buccaneers team has a nice little chemistry going their way right now, I will pass here, as I expect this game to be won by a field goal in last few minutes. Chicago is a better team in my mind, but not good enough (not yet) to be backed on the road against another solid team as only a 3 pts dog. Pass.

Play on 3-HF if both teams won as underdogs the week before: 15-3 ATS L10Y (Play on TB)

Play on 5.5- home favs off W, before 3 straight road games: 16-3 ATS L15Y (Play on TB)

Cleveland +4 @ Minnesota

No Play / No Lean

Minnesota is riding a three game winning streak and they are back into the division title race. In those three games their defense and their special units were exceptional, as they made some key stops in each game, but they also scored 4 TD's. B.Johnson is not doing much for their offense but he does have a 3-1 TD/Int ratio since replacing Dante. The Vikes also outrushed two of their past three opponents and last three visitors to Minny. Cleveland is playing much better lately as well, as they won 2 of their last 3 and outgained 3 of their last 4 opponents. However, Cleveland seems to be unable to win consecutive regular season games as they lost last 8 in that spot. Looking at the stats, I don't see any clear edge for any team in this game. Cleveland is better in the redzone (slightly) this season, but Minny is better in that statistical deppartement lately. Neither team has a significant defensive, redzone or turnover edge. That' probably why the line for this game has been set at -4 and not more. No matter how hard I try, I just can't make a case for any one of these two teams. Pass.

Play against non conference road teams after allowing 0 pts in previous game: 11-0 SU and ATS L11Y (Play on Minny)

Play against home favs after a road dog win on MNF: 12-4 ATS L5Y (Play on Cleveland)

New England +3 @ Kansas City

No Play / No Lean

New England finally won consecutive games this season after four straight losses in this spot. However they stil failed to cover the spread, so their ATS record following a SU win is now 0-5 ATS this season. They are now leading the Bills by two games in their division. They have two crucial divisional games comming up next. Just like New England, KC has not been able to win consecutive games lately. And just like New England, they also have a crucial division game vs Denver coming up next. On the paper, KC is a better team, and should be able to take advantage of NE defensive injuries, with their high flying air attack. But I sincerly can't remember how many times those Patriots proved me to be wrong in games they were supposed to be outmached and outplayed. With the exception of their clash with a great Indy team earlier this season, these guys have been very good every time they were supposed to lose. This team can play under pressure like no other team in the NFL. And this is why I will not fade them despite the fact that KC has a better redzone effciency, better running game, better defense and better turnover ratio, not to mention the passing game that should be more than able to take advantage of the NE pass defense weakness. Everything in this game points out to KC as an easy winner, but I have too much respect for NE players and coaching stuff to go against them. No play for me. No important systems either.

San Diego -3 @ Washington

No Play / No Lean

Well, if there is a game this week where two teams are literally even in almost every important stat, it is this one. No team has any important edge in all those statistical comparison that I usually look at, except for the turnovers, where the Chargers have a rather big edge over the Skins. However, the turnovers are something that can not be predicted, hence an edge based solely on the turnovers is of no importance to me. SD is red hot, Washington is not. However, SD is not used to playing in cold weather and Washington is. But I really don't know if that will be important in this game, as both teams can run the ball well, and Oakland, a team that has no running game to speak off, just escaped from Washington with a win last week. This is also a matchup of a top 10 offense (SD) vs a top 10 defense (WAS). Both teams are desperate and need this win badly to stay in the hunt for a playoff spot.

Play against road favs in non-conf games before hosting a divisional foe: 62-36 ATS (Play on Washington)

If favored by 3 or less, and weeks 12+, 13-3 SU and ATS (Play on Washington)

San Francisco +8 @ Tennessee

No Play / No Lean

Obviously, none of these two teams is going anywhere, and none of these two teams is doing anything well this year, as evidenced by their identical 2-8 records. Both teams have been quite competitive at home and flat out bad on the road, and I expect this trend to continue this week. So, I do expect Tennessee to win this game, but there is no way in hell I will lay this many points on a 2-8 team, in a meaningless, non divisional game.Tennessee does have a big redzone edge, especially lately, over the 49ers, and a much better running game at home vs 49ers on the road, but that is just not enoat KC has a better redzone effciency, better running game, better defense and better turnover ratio, not to mention the passing game that should be more than able to take advantage of the NE pass defense weakness. Everything in this game points out to KC as an easy winner, but I have too much respect for NE players and coaching stuff to go against them. No play for me. No important systems either.

San Diego -3 @ Washington

No Play / No Lean

Well, if there is a game this week where two teams are literally even in almost every important stat, it is this one. No team has any important edge in all those statistical comparison that I usually look at, except for the turnovers, where the Chargers have a rather big edge over the Skins. However, the turnovers are something that can not be predicted, hence an edge based solely on the turnovers is of no importance to me. SD is red hot, Washington is not. However, SD is not used to playing in cold weather and Washington is. But I really don't know if that will be important in this game, as both teams can run the ball well, and Oakland, a team that has no running game to speak off, just escaped from Washington with a win last week. This is also a matchup of a top 10 offense (SD) vs a top 10 defense (WAS). Both teams are desperate and need this win badly to stay in the hunt for a playoff spot.

Play against road favs in non-conf games before hosting a divisional foe: 62-36 ATS (Play on Washington)

If favored by 3 or less, and weeks 12+, 13-3 SU and ATS (Play on Washington)

San Francisco +8 @ Tennessee

No Play / No Lean

Obviously, none of these two teams is going anywhere, and none of these two teams is doing anything well this year, as evidenced by their identical 2-8 records. Both teams have been quite competitive at home and flat out bad on the road, and I expect this trend to continue this week. So, I do expect Tennessee to win this game, but there is no way in hell I will lay this many points on a 2-8 team, in a meaningless, non divisional game.Tennessee does have a big redzone edge, especially lately, over the 49ers, and a much better running game at home vs 49ers on the road, but that is just not enough for me to make a case for a 2-8 team. SF is playing hard in every game despite their lack of talent and experience and they have been able to stay close in most games this season. Tennessee should win this game but a backdoor cover for SF is not out of question. No Play.

Play against 7+ favs if both teams lost at home in previous game: 21-9-1 ATS L17Y (Play on SF)

Play on 7+ HF in non conference games before a divisional rival: 14-3 ATS L6Y in weeks 10+ (Play on TEN)

Saint Louis -4 @ Houston

No Play / No Lean

Houston has a solid redzone edge over STL recently and finally they play a team that is just as bad as they are. In their last 6 games they faced Indy twice, Jacksonville, KC, Seattle and Cleveland. The only bad team on that list was Cleveland and Houston beat them. St.Louis is ready to call it a season, as they lost both games following their bye week. First they were crushed against the Seahawks and then they lost at home to Arizona. They are just as banged up as Houston, and they are getting outgained in every game, just like Houston as well. Then why would anyone lay 4 pts on the road with a team like Rams ? I know very well how bad this Houston team is, but I do think that they can score some points vs this STL team. Maybe just enough to cover the spread. St. Louis has a small defensive/running edge and Houston has a small turnover edge. The Rams are 1-9 SU/ATS in last 10 regular season road games and 3-14 ATS in last 17 when laying the points on the road. Actually they lost outright 11 of last 16 road fav games. This game is only appealing as a value play, going against STL but everything else is pure guessing. I just don't want to be part of it. No Play.

Play on home dogs in non conference games if both team off of a loss, weeks 7+: 11-0 ATS, 9-2 SU L6Y (Play on Houston)

Jacksonville -3.5 @ Arizona

Play: Arizona +3.5

Full Play Teaser with Buffalo

Jacksonville has a very solid edge over Arizona in the redzone, on defense, on the ground and in TO ratio. Actually, stat wise Jacksonville is the best play on the board this week. But why are they favored by only 3.5 then ? Well, the answer is very simple. Jacksonville does have all those advantages, but recently, those edges are not all that big, as Arizona is starting to improve in all statistics. It is actually Arizona that has a huge redzone edge over Jacksonville in last two games. Arizona has also improved on the ground in three consecutive games, and they only turned the ball over two times in last two games, compared to 2+ turnovers in all by one game earlier this season. With no more pressure on this team, I expect them to play better towards the season's end. The Cradinals were expected to fly high this season and they were not able to do that. Now that nobody is watching them any more, they are finally showing some good things on the field. Jacksonville is just not as convincing on the road as they are at home. They were engaded in many close games this season and this one should be no different. They stil might win this game but not but many. They are also in a very dangerous spot here, playing a non-conference opponent, after a big divisional road win, and right before a road conference game that will also be their third straight road game. Arizona should keep it close.

Play against teams playing their 2nd of three straight road games, after a win: 15-5 ATS L10Y (Play on Arizona)

Play against road favs in NC games after a divisional road game and before a conference game: 16-4-1 ATS (Play on Arizona)

Play on home dogs after a road dog win: 90-54 ATS L15Y (Play on Arizona)

Same system is 17-3 SU and ATS if 4-dog and opp: on 3+win streak (Play on Arizona)

Miami +7 @ Oakland

Play: Miami +7

Oakland has a small redzone edge over Miami, and Miami has a small defensive edge over Oakland. The key edge in this matchup is the running game, where Miami has the #3 edge in pros this week. Looking back at Oakland's history, we can see that this team historically struggles at home when outrushed by the visiting team. In last 61 games, they are 9-51-1 ATS when outrushed at home and Miami does have the potential to put more yards on the ground than the Raiders this week. I also believe that this Raiders team is just as tired as Miami, as they had to travel for each of their past 5 games, going to Tennessee, then KC, then back home to the West coast to face Denver, then back to the East coast to face the Redskins, and finally back home to the West Coast to face Miami. And obviously, they had no bye week in between all those trips.Next week they travel to SD and they are 2-7 ATS in last 10 years in non divisional games before going to SD. They had no running game in last two games and most of their offensive yardage came from their passing game and now they face a Miami team that allows 156 passing yards on average on the road this season. The injuries of Seau and Thomas are important, but so is the injury to W.Sapp who will probably miss this game for Oakland. Miami is one of just a few teams that had success playing in Oakland historically. I know this is a different Miami team, but this Oakland team is not as good as it was before. Miami was emotionally drained after their loss to New England two weeks ago and that was obvious in their game at Cleveland last week. This week I expect them to refocus and run the ball a lot vs Oakland. I don't say theu will win this game, but I do expect them to play better than last week. Miami should keep it within the number.

Play against 6+favs averaging<80 rypg vs opp avg>110 rypg if in their previous games they stayed within their season average (<80 for the fav and >110 for the dog): 15-3-1 ATS L15Y (Play on Miami)

Play against non divisional home favs before a road division game if they recorded a come from behind win in 4th quarter in previous week: 22-6 ATS L11Y (Play on Miami)

Play on road dogs after scoring 0 pts for a third+ straight loss: 20-3 ATS L20Y (Play on Miami)

Green Bay +4.5 @ Philladelphia

No Play / No Lean

This is the matchup of two most disappointing teams this season. Trying to pick a winner in this game (SU or ATS) is just plain stupid. Both teams are pretty much done for the year, despite the fact that they do play hard on the field with the personel they got at this point of the season. Green Bay know for a few weeks now that they are done, and Philly is just starting to realize that they have no chance of reaching the playoffs, no matter how hard they play the rest of the season. I'm not saying that this game will be boring, not at all, as both teams played with a lot of heart last week, but this game, from the betting perspective, has no value at all. With several better betting opportunities avaiable this week, I will simply pass on this game like it never happened. No Play

N.Y.Giants +4.5 @ Seattle

No Play / No Lean

Seattle has a top 5 redzone efficiency edge this week, but the Giants have a solid defensive and turnover edge over Seattle. Two good teams, trying to secure their playoff spots. NFC West has a 1-8 SU/ATS record vs the NFC East this year, but that record is somewhat padded, because the NFC West worst teams (SF,ARI,STL) have been involved in 7 of those 9 games, and they faced the NFC East elite teams (NYG,WAS,DAL) in 8 out of 9 games. I like both Seattle and NYGiants this season, just like in that Dallas vs Denver matchup, and that's the main reason why I will not make a play on this game. Both teams are playing well and both teams have the weapons that can be used to expolit the opponents weeknesses. It should be a close game with Seattle winning at the end. No Play, no lean for this game.

Play on home favs after a road 10+ faw win and no-cover: 12-1 SU (by 16ppg) and 12-1 ATS (by 8.5ppg) L20Y (Play on Seattle)

New system in the making: Play against @D of a HF covering win of 10+pts: 1-10 SU/ATS since week 4 TY (Play on Seattle)

New Orleans -1 @ N.Y.Jets

Play: N.Y.Jets +1

I actually like the Jets to beat NO this week, regardless who will be the starting QB, Bollinger (Probable) or Kingbury. First of all, the Jets are on a shorter losing streak (5 gms losing streak vs NO's 6 game losing streak). Second, the Jets schedule was taugher than NO schedule during those losing streaks. The Jets lost at Denver (9-2), at Carolina (7-3), vs SD (6-4), at Atlanta (7-4) and at Buffalo (4-6 but 4-1 at home), which is 4 decent teams + one decent home team, and an overall record of 33-19. The Saints lost at New England (6-4), Miami (3-7), Chicago (7-3), STL (4-6), Atlanta (7-4) and GB (2-8), and that is a list that includes 3 decent teams, 3 bad teams and an overall record of 29-32. Third, this game will be won by a better defense anyways, as neither team is able to win if the opponents score at least 20 pts. New Orleans is 2-1 SU and 2-0-1 ATS when the opponent scores 20 or less, and 0-7 SU, 2-5 ATS if the opponent scores 21+. The Jets are 2-1 SU and ATS if the opponent score 20 or less and 0-7 SU and 1-6 ATS if the opponent score 21+. So, if we compare these two teams defenses, we can see that the Jets have a better defense in the following statistical categories: rushing yards per carry (3.9 vs 4.5), passing yards per completion (10 vs 11), defensive QB rating (67.2 vs 83., third down % (39 vs 41), home/away redzone (41 vs 58). The Jets also have a better turnover ratio, a better overall redzone, and especially the home/away redzone efficiency. Fourth, the Jets are finally home, after playing four of their previous 5 games on the road, and the Saints are on the road, AGAIN. This team actually didin't have a home game all season (we all know why) and they have to be tired by now. Last week they played at New England and in last 5 years, the teams that played their previous game at NE, in weeks 10+ are 6-14 ATS in their next game. Netiher one of those teams is going to the playoffs, but at least, we have some value with the home team here, in a nationally televized game. The Jets are 4-0 SU/ATS in SNF games under Herman Edwards, winning 3 times as underdogs, and the Saints are 2-8 in last 10 prime time games (SNF or MNF).

Play on dogs after scoring 0 pts in at least their 4th straight loss 22-7 ATS L16Y (Play on Jets)

Same system is 14-2 ATS if it was at least their 5th straight loss (Play on Jets)

Play on home dogs in non conference games if both teams off of a loss, weeks 7+: 11-0 ATS, 9-2 SU L6Y (Play on Jets)

Play against road favs in non conference games, if their next game is at home vs division: 62-36 ATS L20Y (Play on Jets)

Play recap:

Play #1: Buffalo +4

Play #2: Arizona +3.5

Play #3: Miami +7

Play #4: NYJets +1

Play #5: Teaser: Buffalo +11 and Arizona +10.5