newsletters for nov 22nd week
THE GOLD SHEET
NFL ANALYSIS
KEY TO FOOTBALL ANALYSES
Home team in CAPS. *â€â€
posted by phantom
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Confidential Kick-Off!!
The Gold Sheet!!
America's Handicapping
Leaders For 48 Seasons!
CKO Vol. 44 November 24 -28, 2005 No. 13
11 *SOUTHERN MISS over Tulane
Late Score Forecast:
*SOUTHERN MISS 48 - Tulane 10
While we have sympathy for poor vagabond Tulane's plight this season, that
won't prevent us from taking a final opportunity to go against the Green
Wave, which has lost their last 7 games both straight up & vs. the spread.
Displaced by Hurricane Katrina prior to the start of the campaign,
travel-weary Tulane is playing at its 11th different site in as many weeks!
Expect little mercy from Southern Miss. The Golden Eagles are off
back-to-back losses and must win to qualify for a minor bowl. That's all the
motivation they'll need. The Green Wave are yielding 39 ppg in their last 7.
Confident USM sr. QB Dustin Almond ready for a big day in his final home
game. He'll find juco WR Josh Barnes (3 TDC in last 2 games) frequently
roaming free after play-action fakes, as tired, beat-up Tulane front 7 needs
too much help from DBs in run support. And when Eagles come up short of end
zone, jr. Darren McCaleb, one of the nation's top PKs, rarely fails to
convert. No surprise if opportunistic USM defense contributes some big plays
against a mistake-prone Green Wave attack (24 giveaways) that has difficulty
establishing the run.
10 *EAST CAROLINA over Uab
Late Score Forecast:
*EAST CAROLINA 30 - Uab 26
UAB desperately seeking that sixth victory in its season finale, hoping to
garner its second-ever bowl bid (after 59-40 loss in Hawaii Bowl LY).
Unfortunately, East Carolina has turned into a righteous, never-say-die
underdog in Skip Holtz' first year at the helm, going 6-2 when getting
points, with three SU wins. And Pirates well-equipped to trade scores with
inconsistent UAB (7-14 last 21 when favored; 2-4 TY). ECU getting good crowd
support at home, has a sr. leader in QB Pinkney, one of the nation's top WRs
in juco A. Allison (78 recs.), an improving ground game (245 YR last week on
the road at Marshall), and a largely veteran defense that ranks 11th vs. the
pass. Blazer QB Hackney will do his thing, but UAB vulnerable to annoying
penalties. Often these "must-win" games can be very hard to win, as the
must-win team (UAB in this one) feels the pressure, while its opponent is
free to "let it all hang out." This figures to be one of those times.
10 FRESNO STATE over *Nevada
Late Score Forecast:
FRESNO STATE 45 - *Nevada 19
CKO scouts in Fresno tell us not to look for much of a letdown by the
Bulldogs after impressive, intense, hard-fought, tough loss at Southern Cal.
Fresno (6-0 in the WAC; one game left after this one) still needs this game
to stay ahead of upstart Nevada (6-1 in conference play) in order to win the
league title, which was a major goal for FSU after the Bulldogs had lost four
straight years to Boise. That title is extremely important to Pat Hill's
charges, and especially to the seniors, such as team leaders QB Paul Pinegar,
RBs Mathis & Sumlin, DE McIntyre and CB Marshall. More importantly, Nevada
is shorthanded on offense with veteran WRs Flowers & Spencer both ailing
(check status), and two top members of its secondary already lost for the
season. Wolf Pack has not stepped up very well TY when moving up in class,
being routed 55-21 at home vs. Washington State, and losing 42-21 at Colorado
State & 49-14 at Boise. If you know Pat Hill at all, you know the hangover
from loss to Trojans won't linger.
10 *SEATTLE over N.Y. Giants
Late Score Forecast:
*SEATTLE 34 - N.Y. Giants 19
(Sunday, Nov. 27)
Giants still learning how to travel with young Eli Manning, who has only one
road win in his career, at offensively-challenged San Francisco. And N.Y.
suffering from some injuries on defense, as LB Torbor out a couple games, and
star DE Michael Strahan sustained a shoulder injury last week (check status).
Torbor's injury helps the relentless Shaun Alexander, who's up to 1229 YR and
has already scored 19 TDs, the most in NFL history after ten games. And the
possible absence Strahan would help QB Hasselbeck, who now has his WR crew
back intact after a number of early injuries. Seahawk OL among the best in
the NFL, giving HC Holmgren just about every option with his heady
play-calling he can imagine. Seahawks in a shoot-out.
TOTALS: Chicago-Tampa Bay UNDER (33)-with two young QBs vs. speedy defenses,
long gainers will be few; Bears "under" 8 of 10 TY...N.Y. Giants-Seattle OVER
(48 )-With these two QBs, only terrible weather can keep it "under."
HONORABLE MENTION: VIRGINIA TECH (-24) vs. North Carolina-Hokies can clinch
berth in ACC title game with a victory; Carolina doesn't run well enough or
pass protect well enough (30 sacks allowed) to keep VT blitzers off QB
Baker...SMU (+7) vs. Utep-Miners now must win to reach inaugural C-USA title
game; improved, now-seasoned Mustangs (5-1 last 6 vs. spread) have just
enough skill & balance to be a major pest. NOTRE DAME (-18 ) at Stanford-If
Irish win they're a virtual lock for a BCS Bowl; QB edge could be huge if
Stanford's Trent Edwards (shoulder) is unavailable...WASHINGTON (+3) vs. San
Diego-Redskins have the offense to hurt S.D. defense; HC Gibbs fuming after
last week's offensive meltdown.
posted by phantom
Nov. 22 2005 4:44pm -
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marc lawrence;
AWESOME ANGLE
OF THE WEEK
Marc's Awesome Angle Of The Week
Wins 67% In PLAYBOOK Last Four Years!
PLAY AGAINST any college football
home team with rest off BB losses
in their final game of the season
if they won 7 < games last year
and allow > 25 PPG this season.
PLAY AGAINST:
RUTGERS & TEXAS A&M
T R I V I A T E A S E R
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
5 BEST BET
ARIZONA STATE over Arizona by 21
The Sun Devils have been waiting a year to get even for last
year's regular season finale. 8-2 Arizona State laid 14 to 2-8
Arizona in Tucson and watched in horror as the Wildcats
posted a season-high 34 points in the upset win. ASU is
averaging 37 ppg here over the past three years. Arizona is
4-25 SU & 2-26 ATS when they allow more than 28 points to
a foe off a loss. The Sun Devils are 30-4 ATS in their last 34
conference revenge wins. Koetter needs this game like bowlblood.
The transfusion has been ordered and ASU delivers.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
GAME OF THE WEEK UPSET UPSET
HAWAII over Wisconsin by 3
This game looks a lot like Hawaii's season finale against
Michigan State last year. The Spartans sauntered into Aloha
Stadium a little down in the mouth after being brutally
abused by Penn State in their previous game. MSU laid a
touchdown and a defensive egg in a 41-38 loss. Wisconsin
is in the same boat. The home loss to Iowa and the
beheading at Penn State the week before leaves the
Badgers looking for a vacation, not another fight. The
referees helped to beat Michigan State last year. We see
no reason why the Zeebs won't help out the Islanders again.
With the Badgers sun tanning before their bowl game look
for them to get burned by the Rainbows in what amounts
to THEIR bowl game. Hawaii improves to 8-0 ATS as non
con home dogs of 3 or more points under June Jones.
Game angle also comes to the Pirates support here. We never
have problems fading road chalk off a road underdog win where
they were outgained by over 100 yards. Don't skip by this game.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
4 BEST BET
Maryland over NC STATE by 10
We love NC State and it's consistency. Whenever they play,
all we have to do is cut and paste the previous write up and
change one of the numbers. The best road dog in the nation
is also the worst conference favorite. NC State is 14-1 ATS in
its last 15 tries as a road underdog but 1-15 ATS in its last 16
chances as ACC chalk. Needless to say, we won't try to put
the deuce on the left side of that record. Maryland has
finished off each of the last four seasons with a win and
cover in its final game. We can see how that might happenSaturday, November 26th
They are also 7-0 ATS as competitive ACC dogs of 7 or
less points. Maryland has the revenge and both teams need
a win to become bowl eligible. We'll opt for the hungry dog
against the choking chalk. Adios Chuck, it's been nice.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
3 BEST BET
LA TECH over Boise State by 3
Last year, we wouldn't have dreamed of fading Boise in a
conference game. The Broncos were in the throes of a 31-
game league winning streak and it made no sense to fade
them. Now that streak is broken and Louisiana Tech has
one of its own going. It's not a big streak (five straight wins
and covers on this field) but it's enough help us fade the
road favored Broncos. Something is missing from this year's
Boise team and we're saddling up to take advantage. We
like home dogs with the better defense, especially those
that are playing well and protecting their turf. Broncos have
covered in only one of their five road affairs (at Utah State)
this season. There's a reason.
posted by phantom
Nov. 23 2005 4:40pm -
0 likes
lawrence:
[
Toledo over BOWLING GREEN by 1
A pair of incredible upsets leave us with tremendous line value
in this game. Toledo laid double digits to Northern Illinois at
home last Wednesday and got beat by 18. Bowling Green took
double digits at Miami of Ohio and won by 28. The combined
lined differential is a whopping 67 points! UT is 7-2 SU and ATS
in MAC play off a MAC loss, including a perfect 3-0 as an
underdog in that situation. Holy Toledo!
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Wednesday, November 23rd
N ILLINOIS over W Michigan by 13
Toledo fans need a win over Bowling Green and a win here by
Western Michigan to make it back to the MAC title game.
Don't make any hotel reservations in Detroit yet, Rocketeers.
With Garrett Wolfe back and running well, the Bronco defense
will have its hands full tonight. NIU's young QB, Dan Nicholson,
went 20 of 30 for 274 yards and two TD’s on the road against
the league's best defense in his first career start. WMU owns the
nation's 108th-ranked defense. That unit will be tested tonight.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
AKRON over Kent St by 12
Akron's thrashing of Ohio University on this field last week
leaves little hope for the punchless Golden Flashes. Kent owns
the worst rushing offense in the country and is 1-17 SU in its last
18 road games against .444 or better opposition. We have two
problems with taking the Zips. One is the BG-Toledo game on
Tuesday. If Bowling Green wins, Akron has nothing to play for.
The other is that the road team has covered every game in this
series since the MAC went up on the Big Board in 1998.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
W VIRGINIA over Pittsburgh by 6
We're hearing folks around Morgantown say that all the
Mountaineers have to do to get to a BCS game is beat South
Florida next weekend. Whoa there, Cletus. Did you guys already
beat Pittsburgh and forget to tell us? In the 'Backyard Brawl'
nothing is for sure until the game is over. However, Pittsburgh
earned the right to a BCS spot last season on the backs of the
Mounties and West Virginia hasn't forgotten it. Huge YPR
advantage for West Virginia at home with revenge. WVA 14-2
ATS as home chalk with revenge in the second half of the season
since 1980 but we like Pitt's resolve since they opened 1-4 under
Wanny as they've gone 4-1 since. A win here lands them a bowl.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Texas over TEXAS A&M by 27
Some say that this is Texas' last chance to lose before playing
USC in the Rose Bowl. No, it's not. If Colorado plays a perfect
game and Texas isn't paying attention, the Buffs could upset the
mighty Longhorns. Texas A&M can't and won't (see this week's
trio of Awesome Angle, Incredible Stat and Smart Box for further
confirmation). In net yardage and point differential this season,
Texas leads the Gaggies by 259 yards and 30 points. However, as
has been proven many times over, winning the game and winning
it by more than three touchdowns are two completely different
things.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
LSU over Arkansas by 21
The Tigers need only to win this game and it's back to the SEC
championship game against Georgia. Although the Hogs have
outrushed their three SEC foes in road games this year, they
figure to be up against it here as LSU's rush defense ranks #7
in the land Take that weapon away and the Pigs could be facing
a slaughter. Marc's 'Last Kiss' article on page 2 further confirms
those possibilities.
posted by phantom
Nov. 23 2005 4:40pm -
0 likes
lawrence:
COLORADO over Nebraska by 17
Let's start with this: Colorado has covered nine of the last ten
against Nebraska with the only pointspread loss coming in the
Huskers last visit to Boulder. Now add this: Nebraska is averaging
37 yards rushing over its last four games and Colorado owns the
nation's 2nd best run defense. In those four games, Nebbish has
allowed an average of 230 ground yards. Finally, consider this:
The Cornhuskers are 0-15-1 SU & 1-14-1 ATS in their last 16 road
games when the other team wins the ground game. A win here
and the Buffs will square off against mighty Texas in the Big 12
title game. They get it.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
VIRGINIA TECH over N Carolina by 28
One would think that after back-to-back wars with Miami
Florida and Virginia, it will be hard for Virginia Tech to climb
back up the emotional mountain today. Not so today, however,
as Miami's stunning loss last week puts them back in the pole
position of the ACC 500 race for the championship game. North
Carolina should prove to be the perfect foil as the Heels were
stuffed at Louisville and at Miami (no meaningful offensive
TD's in either game) and could likewise get shut down here.
Gobblers are 15-3 ATS in games in which they hold the opposition
to 20 or fewer points. Tech lays it's 'Last Kiss' of the season on
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ ~~
Uab over EAST CAROLINA by 3
Last week we pointed out how the Blazers play to the level of
their competition, to say the least. UAB is 8-0 ATS in its last eight
games against .700 or better opponents and 6-14 ATS as favorites
against .400 or less foes. East Carolina is in the latter group, so
you probably won't get UAB’s best here. A dynamite Last Home
Game angle also comes to the Pirates support here. We never
have problems fading road chalk off a road underdog win where
they were outgained by over 100 yards. Don't skip by this game.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Mississippi over MISSISSIPPI ST by 3
The two worst offenses in the SEC go head-to-head in the Egg
Bowl, an appropriate name for this annual battle considering that
one of the teams is sure to lay one. We're talking about the 111th
and 115th ranked offenses in the country here and they are in a
BCS league, not the Sun Belt or the WAC. Ole Miss has won and
covered the last three without giving up an offensive touchdown.
It could happen again against a Mississippi State team averaging
just over five points per game in its last eight SEC tilts.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
KANSAS over Iowa St by 3
Assuming Colorado beat Nebraska on Friday and, if we're right,
that puts Iowa State into this game with no prize attached. ISU
has covered six of the last seven on this field and certainly has
the better overall team. Much has been written about the Kansas
rush defense, a lot of it by us, but Iowa State's "D" is just five
yards per game behind. Of course, the Cyclone offense is light
years ahead of the Jayhawk attack. All that aside, we think that
it will be Kansas who comes to play and, if you ask Missouri and
Nebraska, when KU comes to play, they're pretty dang good.
They're also playing to become bowl-eligible here today.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
RUTGERS over Cincinnati by 10
Cincinnati has two Big East wins this season – at Syracuse, one of
only five teams in the nation ranked 100th or worse in both
total offense and total defense, and at home against a
Connecticut team playing with its third-string quarterback. In
their other league contests, the Bearcats lost each by at least 18
points. Losing team vs a winner off BB losses suggests a look at
the winning team. That's Rutgers. BUT, those two losses were by
14 at home to South Florida and by 51 at Louisville. The Knights
may not have the confidence to cover a number of this size. The
Awesome Angle says so, too
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ ~
MEMPHIS over Marshall by 14
Let's first note that, in its last 26 games in which its has been
outrushed on the road, Marshall is 3-23 ATS. Next, let's record
the fact that Memphis has posted more rushing yards than its
opponent in every home game but one since DeAngelo Williams
arrived on campus. The Tigers are 18-3 SU at home over the past
four years when they win the running game. Marshall is 4-15 in
its last 19 SU lined road losses and will probably be playing
without starting QB Bernie Morris. We would only play Memphis
as Williams makes them an attractive bowl commodity should
they pick up the win.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Texas El Paso over SMU by 8
You know what? This is no gimme win for the Miners. The last
time UTEP went out on the road for a walkover win, it was taken
to the final gun by a Rice team who was mired in a 13-game
losing streak. In their only other true road game against a CUSA
foe, the Orediggers were beaten soundly by the Memphis Tigers.
We're not sure if you noticed or not, but SMU has the nation's
only win over TCU and the Mustangs beat UAB in Birmingham.
Still, the Miners know that and they have more horsepower than
the Mustangs.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
FLORIDA over Florida St by 3
A recent article in a Florida paper made light of the long used
epithet for Florida, Florida State and Miami, alias the Big Three.
Now, the writer says, it's the Big Five with Florida and FSU at the
bottom of the list. This game could salvage a mediocre year for
one of the two. Bobby Bowden is absolutely beside himself, off
a pair of losses. He's also playing with revenge from his only
home loss last season. Urban Meyer never realized how warm
things are in the Sunshine state. He's 22-7 ATS against a foe off
an ATS loss, but only 2-3 in that role with the Gators. Lean to the
dog against the troubled favorite here.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ ~
LOUISVILLE over Syracuse by 39
Louisville has won and covered each of its last 11 home games
by an average score of 55-16 and this is, BY FAR, the worst team
the Cardinals have seen in that stretch. Only Temple, Duke and
North Texas have less productive offenses than the Cuse. If one
thing has been learned by Cardinal opponents other than not
to dance on the Cardinal logo at midfield, it's that, when you
come to Papa John stadium, you better have a bunch of points
with you or you will get toasted. Syracuse will get toasted, for
sure, but we can't remember the time we posted a 40-point
favorite. Don't forget, the Orange is easily peeled as a conference
road dog, going 3-19 ATS of late. Ouch.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Georgia over GEORGIA TECH by 6
The Dawgs are in the SEC title game, they can't play in the
national championship game and they've beaten the Bumblebees
four times in a row. With last week's stunning upset win at
Miami, the Techsters avoided that long trip to Boise for a bowl
game (every Georgia fan's favorite destination). As attractive as
a revenging, defensive home dog is we don't like the fact they
will be staying warm over the holidays after last week's victory.
That and the fact that Bulldog head coach Mark Richt fits the
bill as the answer to this week's Trivia Teaser (see page 2).
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
S Florida over CONNECTICUT by 3
Like the folks from the hill country, the South Florida people
figure that all their team has to do is beat West Virginia at home
next week and the unheard of, never imagined spot among the
top eight teams in the country belongs to the Bulls. As Lee Corso
loves to say, "Not so fast, my friend!" UConn has its starting QB
back on the field and it has picked up the team. Don't be fooled
by Connecticut's 24-0 loss at Pitt. The Huskies won the game by
100 yards on the field and it's defense gave up just one legitimate
offensive touchdown. Huskies could be snarling after four
straight losses without their leader. From a technical perspective,
rested home dogs, off a shutout loss, are a rock solid 67% ATS
proposition. This game bears the distinct smell of upset...
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
HOUSTON over Rice by 15
Rice is probably ready to start another losing streak but it's
very difficult to lay this many with the Cougars. You have to go
back to October of 1992 to find Houston laying this many to a
conference team. In fact, the Cougars have only been favored
by ten or more 13 times since that date and they only covered
the spread in two of those games. No way to recommend Rice
either, not with the the third-worst scoring defense in the USA.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ ~
Utah St over NEW MEXICO ST by 3
Last year, the New Mexico Aggies went trudging up to Logan
and laid six to the other Aggies. By the time their ordeal was
over, the New Mexico Aggies had absorbed a 34-25 loss to put
them under .500 for the year. NMSU hasn't won since nor have
they allowed – until last week– less than the 34 points USU got
on that day in any game since. We think it's fair to say that the
Utags will get 34 today. In their last five road games when scoring
34 or more, Utah State is 0-5 SU and ATS.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
S MISSISSIPPI over Tulane by 17
Finally, after all this time, Tulane gets to play its last game. No
doubt, the seniors on this Green Wave team will give it their all
today, but those kids are tired and well traveled. In Tulane's last
five visits to Hattiesburg, the Wave has posted five losses, all by
14 or more, and one cover. Southern Miss is 13-6 SU and 10-4
ATS in its season finale over the past two decades. Here's the
funny thing about this game. Tulane's defense is 39 yards better
than the Golden Eagle stoppers, a strange stat, we think, for a
21-point underdog.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
SAN JOSE ST over Idaho by 8
We told you last week of San Jose's prowess as a favorite, but, in
case you weren't paying attention, we'll remind you again that,
going into last week's game against New Mexico State, the
Spartans had seven straight wins and covers as the chalk. Make
it eight straight as they easily won the game, and the money,
against the barefoot Aggies. Note also, that Idaho is 4-31 SU in
its last 35 road games and that Jose is a perfect 29-0 ATS in its
last 29 SU wins. You know what you gotta do here.
3~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Tennessee over KENTUCKY by 13
Tennessee's troubles with the pointspread, specifically those
preceded by a minus sign, have been hashed over in every
publication that deals with such things. Those ATS failures will
likely be spread around like mayonnaise on a hot ham sandwich
when the Vols line up as double-digit chalk against Kentucky.
Here's what we want you to know: Tennessee has beaten the
BlueGrass Cats 20 times in a row with 14 covers in the mix. The
Vols are also a sterling 45-13 ATS in its last 58 SEC road wins.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
MIAMI FLA over Virginia by 21
Only once in the past 15 years has Virginia had to play a road
game the week after its brouhaha with Virginia Tech. Wouldn't
you know, it was at Miami and, wouldn't you know, Virginia
was the underdog. The Cavaliers lost then and they'll lose now
but, there is a difference. Back in '96, UVA was a 3.5 point dog.
Now, they're getting a few more. The problem for the Cavs is
Miami's defense – it only allows 11 points per game. Virginia is
7-40 ATS in its last 47 SU losses when held to 20 or less.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Notre Dame over STANFORD by 17
In nearly every game this season, Stanford has faced an opponent
who did something better than it did. Somebody had a better
running game, somebody could throw it better, somebody had
a better defense, somebody scored more points. Despite all those
uphill battles against 'superior' competition, the Cardinal went
into last week's game with Cal at 5-4 SU and 6-1-1 ATS before
they emptied out. That inferiority complex raises its ugly head
again. Charlie Weis knows what Notre Dame can do better and
that's what Notre Dame will do. The guy is that simple, which,
of course, is why he wins. Out main concern is this is the Dame's
first game outside their home state since September!
posted by phantom
Nov. 23 2005 4:41pm -
0 likes
lawrence:
ADDED GAMES
NORTH TEXAS over Arkansas St by 1
All of sudden Arkansas State can't score (19 points in last three
conference games). All of a sudden North Texas has found its
long lost running game (three straight league games with over
160 ground yards each). All of a sudden, this don't look like such
an easy game for the Indians who, if they win, could share a
spot for the Sun Belt title.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
FLORIDA INT'L over Florida Atl by 1
What new team will the Sunshine State throw into the Sun Belt
septic tank next year? We hear it's going to be Florida Educational
Development University of Pompano - or FEDUP
Mid Tenn State over TROY by 3
WRITE-IN GAMES
LA MONROE over La Lafayette by 3
OKLAHOMA over Oklahoma St by 20
Although the Sooners have won 17 of the last 23 games in the
Bedlam series, they have covered the spread in only seven. And,
in those 23 games, Oklahoma has won the game by more than
this number just thrice. We were impressed by Okie State's efforts
against Texas and Texas Tech but we're pragmatic enough to
realize that those games were in Stillwater and this one isn't
Lest you believe that because this game is in Oklahoma, the crowd
will be split, it won't. OSU lost at Texas A&M by 39 and at Iowa
State by 27. That keeps us from becoming Cowboys today.
Fresno St over NEVADA by 10
If there has ever been a spot for Nevada to make the money, this
should be the one. The Barba Renos have won 10 of their last
12 home games and stand an excellent chance of bowling should
they pull the upset here. Fresno is coming off back-to-back
games with perennial and defending conference champion
Boise State and with defending national champion Southern Cal.
Next week, Fresno has to even the score with Louisiana Tech for
last year's debacle (FSU laid 14 in Ruston and lost the whole
posted by phantom
Nov. 23 2005 4:41pm -
0 likes
lawrence
5* bbseattle over gints by 14
The last time the Giants went out west to play a good team
they were horse-collared by San Diego (allowed the
Chargers a season-high 475 yards). Off back-to-back home
games against Minnesota (still can't believe they lost that
one) and a crippled Philadelphia team, New York won't be
prepared for what Seattle will throw at them. The Seahawks
are the best team in the NFC, owning the league's top
ranked offense. They've gone 5-1-1 ATS in head-to-head
meetings with the G-Men lately and are unbeaten in the
Sleepless city this season. Here we go again.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
3* bb
WASHINGTON over San Diego by 7
For the fourth time in the last eight weeks, the Chargers are
flying to the other coast to play a football game. So far, the
long distance commute hasn't bothered them. They blew
out New England, beat the Jets easily and came within a
blocked punt return for a TD of beating the Eagles. This team
is no easy out. Neither are the Redskins who have demonstrated
a punch of their own. The Skins are 13-5 ATS here in
non-division battles as a favorite or dog of 3 or less points.
The clincher is .500 or better NFL home dogs, playing off a
SU home favorite loss are 14-4 SU & ATS from game 6 on out.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
4 BEST BET
Miami over OAKLAND by 7
The Raiders return to the bay off an uplifting upset win at
Washington last week knowing they are about to assume
the position. That tawdry role is as non-division chalk of
six or more points where Oakland is a miserable 6-14 ATS
when playing off a win. Miami has had their fair share of
success against AFC West opposition, going 16-3 ATS of late.
Like Arizona above, winning back-to-back games is not a
recipe the Raiders are familiar with as they are just 2-8 SU
in games off one win exact. Off last week's goosing in
Cleveland, Nick Saban will bounce back with a vengeance.
posted by phantom
Nov. 23 2005 4:41pm -
0 likes
New England over KANSAS CITY by 3
The Patriots continue to awe astute NFL watchers by their ability
to bounce back after losses this season. With only a handful of
regulars from last year's Super Bowl team, the Pats have found a
way to overcome their 31st-ranked defense and avoid back-toback
losses. Unfortunately, that permissive defense has, up until
last weekend, helped the Pats avoid back-to-back wins. This exact
same scenario took place last season. New England went to KC
off BB wins to face the Chiefs who had just returned from a twogame
road trip. The Patriots won the game and covered as threepoint
favorites. Today as dogs, Pats make it five consecutive covers
in the Tee Pee.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
CINCINNATI over Baltimore by 4
The Bengals have already proven that they are better than
Baltimore with their 21-9 win at the Harbor earlier this season.
In that game, the Ravens couldn't get a touchdown against the
active Cincinnati defense but that wasn't a surprise to anyone.
In their last three road games, at Chicago, Pittsburgh and
Jacksonville, the Ravens have scored ONE TOUCHDOWN TOTAL.
Fortunately for Baltimore, they catch the Cats with an
Indianapolis hangover and are likely to sneak out with a cover.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
BUFFALO over Carolina by 1
Even though the Bills defense is nowhere near what it was last
season and the offense is in exactly the same spot (nowhere),
Buffalo is managing to win games at home. In fact, in their last
11 home games, the Bills have picked up nine wins and covers,
including 4-1 both ways this season. The loss was to Atlanta who,
like Carolina, would sooner run the football down your throat
than go to the team picnic. Despite the superiority of the Panthers
on both sides of the ball, we can't go against Buffalo here. Funny
things happen on the Lake Ontario shores in November. At 1-8
ATS as non-division road chalk the Panthers should find the
sledding a bit tough here today.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ ~
DETROIT over Atlanta by 3
The Lions have been a decent home team over the years and
they are especially tough in Motown when they have revenge.
They're also 11-6 SU & ATS at home on Turkey Day, including
10-3 SU & 11-2 ATS when the foe played at home in their last
game. Yes, we realize Atlanta can't afford to lose games like
this, especially off BB home defeats. But road favorites in this
league, playing off BB SU favorite losses, are a meager 12-33
ATS! Pass the carving knife as we're ready to slice up this bird.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ ~~
DALLAS over Denver by 3
The Cowboys are 11-4 ATS as Turkey Day favorites and are slowly
bringing their home field back to the horror show it used to be
for visiting teams. But this team has played and won everywhere
and will absolutely not be impressed by the Cowboys and their
recent home dominance. Denver has their own version of home
invincibility, stronger and longer than Dallas does. On the road
against winning teams is where Denver aches. The Broncos have
won only three of their last 17 in that role with just five covers
in the mix. Stay with the Cowboys in the HoleDome.
TAMPA BAY over Chicago by 6
The Bears sit comfortably atop the cushy NFC North while
Tampa is fighting for its life in the rugged NFC South. What
happens when two tough unyielding defenses – numbers 1 and
2 in the league – collide? Well, when the Bucs hooked up with
Washington, another defensive stalwart, the final was 35-34 and
UNDER players wept openly at the sports books. Tampa has
more offense and that glamorous 18-4 SU & 17-3-2 ATS home log
in the field goal range (+3 to -3). That's the only way we can look.~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PHILADELPHIA over Green Bay by 6
We can't tell you how we're going to feel about this game until
we learn the exact status of Donovan McNabb. We can tell you
that we are not anxious to take the Eagles with Mike McMahon
at the helm against Brett Favre. The truth is, with McNabb
healthy, we would have probably taken the Packers and the
points, you know, that Ugly Pig Syndrome and all. But without
Donovan, this pig just doesn't fly. We pass.
NY JETS over New Orleans by 3
The Jets are flat out terrible, New Orleans can't win a game and
you want us to tell you who to bet? Do what we are going to
do: Grab some leftover turkey, get you a cold beer and watch
the Desperate Housewives desecrate American family life even
more than it already has been. If you're insistent on taking a side
in this debacle you might find solace in knowing the Saints
have won the money in each of their last four visits on this field
while the Flyboys have crashed hard (0-15 ATS) in games before
knocking heads with New England.
INDIANAPOLIS over Pittsburgh by 6
Now, this is a good game. We expect that Ben Roethlisberger
will be back in action for the Steelers and we expect a brutal
battle in the Circle City. Pittsburgh is a great underdog. The
Steelers have covered the spread in seven of their last eight tries
as a short. Even more impressive is the fact that Pittsburgh won
the game in all seven of those covers. Indianapolis, though, has
a better offense and a better defense than the Steelers and
more toughness than its ever had since Manning and Dungy
hooked up. We'll wait to see the number before we settle in
here. We do know that undefeated home teams are 11-1 SU &
9-3 under the Monday Night lights after Game 3 of the season.
MINNESOTA over Cleveland by 6
The Vikings return home after the miracle win over the Giants
and the Monday night war with Green Bay. That's not necessarily
good news for Viking backers, though. Minny is a step under
.500 against the points in its last 15 home games against nondivision
teams. This game does feature one interesting sidelight.
Two of the slowest quarterbacks in NFL history will be going at
each other here. We're not impressed with the Browns who are
1-10 SU & ATS on the road when getting less than seven points.
But they ARE a dog with the better offense and defense .
TENNESSEE over San Francisco by 8
The Forty-Niners are averaging ten points per game away from
home this season and, in true road games, have scored only three
touchdowns in 16 quarters of football. Tennessee is a pathetic
16-2 SU & ATS at home against non-division teams when the
Titans allow less than 17 points. San Francisco could be the only
team in NFL history to finish the season allowing 200 more yards
per game than it gains. We don't back teams like that.
HOUSTON over St Louis by 3
Here's that Ugly Pig rearin' its head again and this time he's
doing it against a terrible road team. The Rams are 2-10 SU &
ATS in their last dozen road games, with both covers coming as
an underdog. Here, they bring their third-worst NFL defense
(only San Francisco and New England are more permissive) into
the home of the victory starved Texans. After stinking up the
pen last Sunday night against the Chiefs, look for this pig to
squeal loudly as the Rams fall to 3-15 ATS as road chalk today.
Jacksonville over ARIZONA by 3
Jacksonville was 3-10-1 as road chalk going into last week's game
against Tennessee and failed again, so we really can't take the
Jags seriously here. The Cardinals can't seem to beat anybody
that's halfway decent : they’ve won back-to-back games only
two times in the last three years. Their two wins this season have
come against San Francisco and Tennessee, two of the weaker
teams in the league. In the other seven games, Arizona, despite
taking generous points from the linemaker, couldn't even cover
the spread, let alone win the game.
posted by phantom
Nov. 23 2005 4:42pm -
0 likes
The Harmon Forecast
In its 49th year, The Harmon Forecast predicts probable scores of college and NFL football games each week.
Game of the Week
Florida State 24, *Florida 21
The Gators own a 28-19-2 record in this rivalry, but the Seminoles have won five of the past seven meetings. Florida State won 38-34 the last time the game was in Gainesville (2003).
Week of Nov. 26
Major Colleges - Div. I-A
*Akron 31 Kent State 17
*Arizona State 33 Arizona 19
Boise State 28 *Louisiana Tech 26
*Bowling Green 34 Toledo 31
*Colorado 27 Nebraska 20
Florida State 24 *Florida 21
*Florida Atlantic 23 Florida International 21
Fresno State 32 *Nevada 21
Georgia 23 *Georgia Tech 21
*Houston 34 Rice 10
Iowa State 26 *Kansas 20
*Louisville 44 Syracuse 14
*LSU 20 Arkansas 10
*Memphis 28 Marshall 17
*Miami (Fla.) 27 Virginia 17
*Mississippi State 23 Mississippi 20
*New Mexico State 24 Utah State 21
*North Carolina State 21 Maryland 20
*North Texas 17 Arkansas State 14
*Northern Illinois 30 Western Michigan 23
Notre Dame 37 *Stanford 20
*Oklahoma 29 Oklahoma State 24
*Rutgers 26 Cincinnati 17
*San Jose State 31 Idaho 30
South Florida 26 *Connecticut 14
Tennessee 23 *Kentucky 13
Texas 35 *Texas A&M 14
Texas-El Paso 31 *Southern Methodist 16
*Troy 19 Middle Tennessee 17
UAB 24 *East Carolina 23
*Virginia Tech 27 North Carolina 7
*West Virginia 24 Pittsburgh 17
Wisconsin 35 *Hawaii 31
* - Denotes home team
posted by phantom
Nov. 23 2005 4:42pm -
0 likes
Pointwise CFB
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1-Colo 2-Md 3-Tex 4-ND 5-VPI, Ga Tek
posted by phantom
Nov. 23 2005 4:42pm -
0 likes
Pointwise NFL
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2-Cincy 3-Seat 4-Jax, Tenn 5-Pgh
posted by phantom
Nov. 23 2005 4:42pm -
0 likes
Final '05 Redsheet CFB
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
89-UConn, Md 88-VPI, La Tek 87-L'v'l, SoMiss, Haw, Ky
Final '05 Redsheet NFL
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
88-Buff, Seat 87-Cincy, Wash, Pgh
posted by phantom
Nov. 23 2005 4:43pm -
0 likes
Mejia's Selections
By Tony Mejia
SportsLine.com Staff Writer
Weekly predictions of the nation's Division I college football action.
Last week: 33-12 |Season to date: 473-171 (73.4%)
2004 season record: 469-156 (75.0 %)
Projected Scores
Week 13
*Bowling Green 41 Toledo 38
*Northern Illinois 23 Western Michigan 20
*Akron 24 Kent State 17
*West Virginia 24 Pittsburgh 6
Texas 31 *Texas A&M 10
*LSU 27 Arkansas 13
*Arizona State 27 Arizona 17
*Colorado 16 Nebraska 10
Wisconsin 38 *Hawaii 24
Maryland 20 *North Carolina State 17
UAB 42 *East Carolina 31
Tennessee 34 *Kentucky 13
Iowa State 10 *Kansas 9
*Rutgers 33 Cincinnati 7
*Memphis 34 Marshall 20
Boise State 52 *Louisiana Tech 34
*North Texas 17 Arkansas State 16
*Mississippi State 17 Mississippi 13
Texas-El Paso 45 *Southern Methodist 17
*Southern Mississippi 33 Tulane 6
*Florida 24 Florida State 20
*Miami (Fla.) 24 Virginia 19
*Louisville 41 Syracuse 10
*Connecticut 28 South Florida 24
*Oklahoma 31 Oklahoma State 10
*Louisiana-Monroe 27 *La.-Lafayette 14
Fresno State 45 *Nevada 30
*New Mexico State 28 Utah State 20
*Houston 37 Rice 10
Idaho 34 *San Jose State 31
Florida Atlantic 20 *Florida International 10
*Troy 16 Middle Tennessee 14
*Virginia Tech 26 North Carolina 13
Georgia 23 *Georgia Tech 13
Notre Dame 27 *Stanford 17
Home team *
posted by phantom
Nov. 23 2005 4:43pm -
0 likes
Mejia's Barking Dogs
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Hasn't been that good the last few weeks. This week's Dogs to win outright:
Maryland
Mississippi St.
North Texas
UConn
New Mex St
Idaho
Fla Atlantic
Troy St
Mostly a bunch of games between crappy teams IMO. Any of these could go either way
posted by phantom
Nov. 23 2005 4:43pm -
0 likes
LAST RED SHEET WRITEUP
NOVEMBER 26, 2005 VOLUME 37, NUMBER 13
South Florida 24 - CONNECTICUT 23 - (3:30 EST) -- Line opened at SoFlorida minus 8½, and is still minus
8½. The Bulls have been one of football's top stories this season, coming from a 4-7
campaign to a legitimate shot at a stellar New Year's Day bowl slot. A win here, & another
next week, lands the BigEast title, & the rewards that follow. But, despite that scenario, this
one has trap written all over it. The Huskies (bowl participants themselves a year ago) have
hit the skids, after opening at 4-1. The loss of QB Bonislawski was the catalyst of their
demise, but he is now back. Despite rustiness in his return vs Pitt, note UConn with 20-11
FD & 299-193 TY edges vs the Panthers. And throw in winter weather.
RATING: CONNECTICUT 89
Maryland 27 - NORTH CAROLINA STATE 17 - (12:00) -- Line opened at NCSt minus 3½, and is now minus
2½. As noted on Pointwise, both schools need this one for a bowl shot, thus no psyche
edge for either team. However, a week ago, the Wolfpack's game with lowly
MiddleTennessee, was just as important, & although NCSt did win, note managing just 8
FDs & 238 total yds vs the Raiders. Also note a paltry 35 FDs for State in its last 3 tilts. The
Terps have been steady all season, with their only spread misses since Week 3, coming vs
powerful VaTech, & BC (2 defensive TDs for Eagles). The underdog is an eye-popping 27-
4-1 ATS in NCSt games, as well as 16-3 in this series. Terps the better team.
RATING: MARYLAND 89
VIRGINIA TECH 48 - North Carolina 10 - (7:45) -- Line opened at VaTech minus 21, and is now minus 23.
From total embarrassment to a complete throttling of a quality team, in a road setup. And
that's why Frank Beamer is one of the nation's premier coaches. Motivation. The Hokies
could have easily come up flat in their trip to Virginia, facing one of the land's top money
plays in the role of host. Check Tech's 333-114 RY edge over the Cavs, as well as a time
advantage of 38:23-21:37. With the Gobblers being one of the top streak teams around, no
reason not to continue their dominating play vs the Heels, who need it for a bowl shot, but
who've been outscored 103-30 in their last 3 RGs. And Tech remembers LY's struggle.
RATING: VIRGINIA TECH 88
LOUISIANA TECH 31 - Boise State 30 - (2:00) -- Line opened at Boise minus 7½, and is now minus 6½.
The exploits of Fresno & Boise have relegated the rest of the WAC squads to definite
"unknown" status, and that's a shame. The Bulldogs of LaTech have more than held their
own, since opening with pair of road embarrassments, winning all but 1 of their ensuing 7
tilts. Admittedly, the quality of opposition is hardly impressive, but those are the same foes
which Boise has fattened up on over the past few season. The Broncos have but 1 road
cover this season, by a mere 5 pts at 2-8 UtahSt. We call the mild upset.
RATING: LOUISIANA TECH 88
BUFFALO BILLS 20 - Carolina 17 - (1:00) -- Line opened at Carolina minus 4, and is still minus 4. Time for
the Bills to step up. Somewhat of a disappointment this season, after coming within a flat
showing in their '04 season finale of reaching the playoffs, they've proven that trips to AFC
West foes are studies in disaster. Were pulverized, 48-10, at SanDiego last week (28-12
FD & 478-202 yd deficits), but such was the case a few weeks back, when Buffalo was
mauled at Oakland, 38-17, only to bounce back with a solid effort at NewEngland, holding
edges of 24-18 in FDs & 394-273 in TYs over the Pats. The Panthers have 3 division
games on deck, including Atlanta next week. We buck visiting chalk in the snow.
RATING: BUFFALO BILLS 88
SEATTLE 37 - New York Giants 17 - (4:15) -- Line opened at Seattle minus 5, and is still minus 5. There is
no questioning the legitimate improvement of the Giants, who have already matched their
win total of the entire '04 season, & are tied with the Cowboys atop the NFC East. But they
will be up against it here, as they are yet to prove that they can handle quality foes, away
from home. They were taken apart at SanDiego, 45-23, in their first such setup, & this one
should be somewhat along those lines, as the Seahawks are simply on fire, with 6 straight
wins, ranking first in the NFL on offense. Less than TD spread is juicy.
RATING: SEATTLE 88
NEAR CHOICES (Rated 87): Louisville, SoMiss, Hawaii, Kentucky - NFL: Bengals, Redskins, Steelers
LINE MOVES (from largest to smallest move): WestVirginia (-9 to -13); MiddleTennSt (-3 to -6½, Texas (-
23½ to -26½); Kentucky (+12 to +9½); VaTech (-21 to -23); Maryland (+3½ to +2½); SMU (+8 to +7); FloridaSt
(+6 to +5); LaTech (+7½ to +6½); Oklahoma (-18½ to -19½) -- NFL: New Orleans (Pick to -2); Denver (+1½
to Pick). - TIME CHANGES: Just one: Miami-Fla/Virginia: from 8:00 to 3:30 Eastern Time.
NOTE: This is the final Red Sheet of the Season. Yet another Winning Season, despite suffering
through a batch of unbelievable losses, especially in weeks 1 & 2, which saw no less than 7 joke
setbacks. Conceivably, we could have gone 23-1 on those 2 editions, with the only poor selection
being Syracuse, which was totally dominated by WestVirginia. Our Superior Plays, which stand at
14-9-1 for the year, are now a spectacular 51-27-1 over the past 3 seasons. Our Top Weekly Play is a
combined 27-11-1 since the onset of the '03 season. The year sure flew by. See you next season.
posted by phantom
Nov. 23 2005 4:45pm -
0 likes
JOE GAVAZZI - WHO2BETON
Thursday November 24
AKRON (-11.5) over Kent State by 14
This cross-town rivalry is 7-0 ATS in favor of the road team. No way, however, to back a Kent State team who is 1-9 SU, 3-6 ATS, on an 8 game slide and has a bottom 10 running offense and defense. Akron is still in line for a winning season.
WEST VIRGINIA (-13) over Pittsburgh by 20
The "Back Yard Brawl" comes complete this season with coaches who have each participated. It’s the first time this has happened in over 40 years. No surprise to find a 12-5 ATS mark for the visitor. Each plays with rest after pitching a shut out in their previous game. The stats within those games tells the difference between these two. While Pittsburgh was winning 24-0 vs. UConn they were being out gained 299-192 (out rushed 143-76) and prospering from a +3 in the TO column. The Mounties won 38-0 at Cincinnati, a game in which they out rushed the Bearcats 297-62. West Virginia qualifies in a 127-69 ATS LHG situation, has the far superior running game and the better, faster defense in a confusing 3-3-5 alignment. On a 16-3 ATS run vs. conference foes they know how to put away their opponents.
Friday November 35
Texas (-27) over TEXAS A&M by 31
Simply can’t make a case for this huge rivalry dog. Longhorns continue to roll, standing 14-3-2 ATS away and 9-1 ATS in the series. Aggie defense tells the difference as they have allowed over 500 yards each of the L3G and are allowing over 6 YP play for the season. LSU (-17) over Arkansas by 20 Hog’s strength is their ground game rushing 64% of the time for 235 RYPG on 5.3 YPR. LSU is well equipped to stop that as they allow just 96 RYPG. It’s led them to a 4-0 record as -10 + TY. Only things keeping this from being stronger are that this is Arkansas’s Bowl game and that LSU plays with need/look ahead to next weeks SEC Championship game.
ARIZONA STATE (-9) over Arizona by only 2
Road team and dog are each 10-3 ATS in the series. No way to back a 5-5 SU AZ State team playing with BQ (bowl qualifying) need and a defense that allows 6.2 YP play and 30 PPG. Insertion of QB Tuitama in L3G has rejuvenated the Wildcat offense and makes them very "live" in their "Bowl Game". Cats are 4-0 ATS as dogs of late.
COLORADO (-13.5) over Nebraska by 20
This match up has been all Colorado (8-1 ATS) who considers this much more of a rivalry than Nebraska. With each owning a BQ record we play the more balanced, explosive offense with the superior defense to continue their series dominance.
Wisconsin (-6.5) over HAWAII by only 3
Despite entering off back-to-back losses, can’t help but feel this is more of a feel good week for departing coach Alvarez despite the fact they need a victory for their preferred Bowl invite. Fundamentals simply not in their favor as the Red Gun has lit up foes behind QB Brennan for 419 PYPG L5G. It will have success against the Badger secondary who allows 246 PYPG, bottom 1/4 in the nation.
Saturday, November 26
VIRGINIA TECH (-23) over North Carolina by only 20
Easy to love the Hokies after their 52-14 bounce-back win at Virginia. They are now 17-5 ATS L22. Victory gives them the ACC playoff slot. Tarheels need a win also for BQ. An improved defense has led them to a 9-3 doglog.
UAB (-5.5) over EAST CAROLINA by 3
UAB may be the best team in CUSA. Their continuing pattern is to play to the level of competition. Their outstanding doglog is offset by a mark of 7-14 ATS fave combined with need for BQ. Consider underdog East Carolina who plays LHG with momentum of last weeks upset win.
Maryland (+2.5) over NC STATE by 4
BQ elimination game with inverted home road dichotomy. Terps are 9-2 ATS away while Wolf Pack just 1-10 ATS home. Also favoring the Maryland side is an LG revenge situation, which is 69-23 ATS (75%).
MISSISSIPPI STATE (+3) over Mississippi by 1
Old Miss has streaks of 5-1 ATS and 3-0 ATS in the Egg Bowl. Miss State has lost 7 straight. While each are on a 0-4 ATS run. Contrary underdog call.
Iowa State (-3) over KANSAS by 7
Jay hawks have BQ need and an ever improving defense allowing just 4.4 YP play. Iowa State, winners of 4 straight, have title game need only if Colorado loses on Friday. Since that won’t happen I favor their quickly improving, better balanced offense to get the victory in a series where they have covered 6 of 7. They are also favored by a 123-65 ATS LG situation.
RUTGERS (-14) over Cincinnati by 17
Improved Rutgers playing loose, having already BQed, improve defense allowing less than 5.0 YP play. Young Bearcats have 6 losses, each of which is by 15 + points.
MEMPHIS (-11.5) over Marshall by 4
Classic spot for poor favorite with need to BQ to falter. Tigers are 0-4 ATS as fave TY and feature a defense allowing almost 6.0 YP play. Marshall plays LG with 123-65 ATS backing (55-16 ATS subset) and playing loose knowing they have no BQ pressure. RB Bradshaw eager to prove he’s in same class as RB Williams.
UTEP (-7) over SMU by only 3
Can’t back mistake prone UTEP as road fave with need to play in CUSA Title game. Ponies with no BQ pressure have quietly improved standing 3-3 SU, 5-1 ATS with no loss greater than 7 points.
FLORIDA (-4.5) over Florida State by 7
A pair of over rated programs play for pride. A loss here makes 3 straight for Bowden for the first time in 25 years. Could well happen as both lines are injury plagued leaving QB Weatherford most vulnerable. They also have a look ahead to the ACC Title game. HC Meyer and QB Leak working together much better. Side with the home team.
LOUISVILLE (-35.5) over Syracuse by 42
Don’t expect Louisville to show the same Mercy that Notre Dame did last week. They are 11-0 ATS as fave -10+ because of an offense that scores 47 PPG on 7.0 YP play. The Orange average less than 14 PPG and 4.0 YP play.
GEORGIA TECH (-3.5) over Georgia by 1
Momentum or let down for the Jackets following their 14-10 upset as +19 of Miami. They held the Hurricanes to just 237 yards. It results in a late season situation that is 36-16 ATS favoring Class A home dogs. Georgia already has their ticket punched for the SEC Title game next week.
South Florida (-8.5) over CONNECTICUT by only 4
The speed of the South Florida defense has led them to a 3 game win streak, 7-1 ATS mark and in control of their own destiny for a BCS bid. Reports indicate they are overlooking this game in favor of their showdown next week with West Virginia. That would be a mistake vs. a UConn team who has a defense allowing less than 300 YPG. Return of QB Bonislawski to have a positive impact.
HOUSTIN (-16.5) over Rice by only 13
Want no part of the favored Cougars who need this victory for BQ. Their 26 PPGD has led to a record of 0-7 ATS as -10 +. Rice running game can do enough business over land against a Cougar stop unit who allows 4.5 YPR.
Utah State (-2.5) over NEW MEXICO STATE by 9
No surprise that winless home teams off a road game are poor late season plays. As a result Utah State qualifies in a situation that is 33-13 ATS. New Mex. State being out scored 40-14 TW and enter on a 0-7 ATS run.
SOUTHERN MISS (-21.5) over TULANE by 28
Tulane rolled over for us as expected as Tulsa cashed, 38-14, as our 6% Steamroller Game of the Year. Green Wave were long ago reduced to a puddle in this hurricane-ravaged season, which has seen them play 11 games at 11 different sites. They enter on a 0-7 SU ATS streak. S. Miss, off BBLs and with BQ need, will show no mercy in bolting to and maintaining a dominant lead.
SAN JOSE ST. (-5) over Idaho by3
A pair of 2-8 SU teams close out the season in undistinguished fashion.
LOUISIANNA TECH (+6) over Boise State by 1
Throw away game for Boise who beat rival Idaho in LHG 70-35. RS ending game in Ruston not on their holiday wish list. They have traveled poorly this year with a defense that is below recent additions. On the road they are 3-7 ATS and 0-3 ATS at this site. Tech is 4-0 SU at home, 5-1 ATS HD and still harbors minor Bowl hopes. Home road dichotomy and motivation enough for the upset.
Tennessee (-9) over KENTUCKY by 4
Vols with no BQ aspirations could well play this as their Bowl game. Kentucky, however, more likely to smell blood against an opponent who has dominated them in recent years. Tennessee just 2-14 ATS fave while KY is 4-0 ATS home TY.
MIAMI (-18.5) over Virginia by 21
Both were highly embarrassed at home last week. Can’t judge the Hurricanes psyche after their 2nd loss. Virginia, who has already BQed, is 0-6 ATS away.
Notre Dame (-18) over STANFORD by 24
Stanford playing with need for BQ in LGH at Stanford Stadium but the OL has been a weakness all year and QB Edwards is banged up (shoulder). The Cardinal has been out gained 420-313 this season. With BCS bid on the line and standing 4-0 SU ATS away TY, Notre Dame leaves nothing to chance.
Fresno State (-16) over NEVADA by 23
Any hopes the Wolf Pack have of vying for WAC supremacy will be dispelled early on. HC Hill will not allow his team to be flat following USC. He is 6-0 ATS in this series including 64-17 LY and 13-2 ATS L2Y. Nevada has gotten handled ever time they have stepped up in class in this league.
OKLAHOMA (-19.5) over Oklahoma State by 13
Young and rebuilding Sooners not the ideal candidate to lay nearly 3 TDs to an instate rival who is 7-3 ATS in recent series. Cowboy’s late season resurgence includes leading Texas 28-0 and defeating Texas Tech out right. Most probable they come in under the number here.
posted by phantom
Nov. 23 2005 10:17pm -
0 likes
2 MINUTE HANDICAP
COLLEGE FOOTBALL
Tuesday, November 22
Toledo SERIES: 0-3 L3 A… 6-1 off SU loss vs opp w/ rev… 16-6 off SU & ATS loss… Rockets on 1-6-1 ATS run… 3-7 L10 RD’s
BOWL GRN SERIES: Host is 6-0… 10-1 home off BB RG’s… 7-1 LHG… 6-1 favs or dogs < 5 w/ rev… 13-5 L18 home w/ rev… 21-11 L32 home vs con opp… Falcons on 2-7 ATS run
Wednesday, November 23
W Michigan SERIES: 1-6 L7 / 0-3 L3 A… 1-8-1 vs .500 > opp off BB SU wins… 5-15 L20 w/ rev… 6-14 aft score 30 > … 5-11 dogs off SU win
NO ILLINOIS 5-0 favs < 20 off SU & ATS win vs opp w/ rev… 7-1 off SU dog win… 12-6 L18 HG’s… 9-6 L15 HF’s… 0-4 LHG… 1-4 aft Toledo
Thursday, November 24
Kent St SERIES: Visitor is 7-0… 7-1 L8 away w/ rev… 5-1 w/ rest… 3-1 LRG… 1-9 off SU loss vs opp off DD SU win… 1-6 aft score 7 < … 2-5 vs con opp in ’05… 7-12 L19 away off BB SU losses
AKRON SERIES: 0-3 L3 H… 7-2 favs off SU win vs opp off SU & ATS loss… 6-2 2nd BB HG’s… 6-2 favs 10 < … 1-5 LHG… 4-9 L13 HF’s… SU win will make Zips bowl eligible
Pittsburgh Panthers on 4-1 ATS run… 5-2 weekday games… 0-5 con RD’s 10 < vs opp off DD SU win… 1-7 away vs opp w/ rev… 2-5 L7 RD’s… 16-32 away vs con opp
WEST VA 36-4 when win SU w/ rev (16-1 vs con opp)… 7-1 weekday games… 14-3 HF’s > 6 w/ rev… Mountaineers on 6-2 ATS run (4-0 MRT)… 1-4 last game of season… 3-10 home vs opp off DD SU win… 3-8 favs off BB SU wins
Friday, November 25
Texas SERIES: 8-2 L10… 10-2 RF’S 13 > … Horns on 13-3 ATS run (9-1 MRT)… 22-12 away vs opp off SU loss… Texas offense avg 52 ppg vs con opp in ’05… 2-10 away off SU & ATS home win
TEXAS A&M 5-0 home w/ rev vs opp off BB SU & ATS wins… 7-1 home off BB SU losses… 7-3 L10 HG’s… 4-14 w/ Franchione when allow 30 > … 5-14 L19 as dogs
Arkansas SERIES: 0-3 L3… Hogs 3-0 RD’s vs con opp in ’05… 16-3 reg season dogs when score 21 > … 1-7 LRG… 7-12 L19 when allow 24 > … 12-19 away off SU win
LSU 5-1 aft Ole Miss… 18-5 when score 24 > … 18-9-1 L28 as favs… 15-8-1 L23 vs con opp… 2-33 HF’s when allow 21 > … 6-19 L25 home w/ rev
Arizona SERIES: 2-5 L7 / 9-3 L12 A… 3-1 RD’s in ’05… 21-10 dogs vs opp off SU loss… 0-6 aft Washington… 10-62 when allow 30 > … 2-8 L10 DD RD’s… 5-8 L13 RG’s
ARIZONA ST SERIES: Favorite is 5-0 / Host is 10-3… 8-3 L11 HG’s… 14-8 L22 when score 30 > … 8-16 favs off SU & ATS loss… Sun Devils must win SU to become bowl eligible
Nebraska SERIES: 1-8 L9 / 1-3 L4 A… 17-4 when win SU w/ rev… 1-6 dogs w/ rest… 4-23-1 away when allow 27 > … 3-9 off SU win… 3-7 L10 RD’s… 6-12 away vs opp off SU loss
COLORADO 10-0 Game Eleven… 4-1 HF’s in ’05… 19-6 L25 when score 27 > … 7-2 LHG… Barnett 13-4 L5 yrs in final 3 reg season games… 2-6 home vs opp w/ rev… win and in B12 title game
Wisconsin 4-0 off SU favorite loss vs opp off DD SU win… 3-0 vs non con opp in ’05… 0-8 L8 DD RF’s… 9-42 when allow 24 > … 1-4 L5 RG’s… 2-6 Nov RG’s… Final game for HC Alvarez
HAWAII 4-0 home vs Big 10 (beat two Big 10 teams SU as dogs to close out ’04 reg season)… 10-2 non con HD’s w/ Jones (7-0 if 3 >)… 12-4 L16 when score 24 > … 7-3 L10 HD’s… 10-4 L14 HG’s
Saturday, November 26
N Carolina 7-1 Game Eleven… 12-3 L15 vs con opp… 5-1 L6 con RD’s… Heels on 13-8 ATS run… 14-8 L22 RG’s… 5-11 L16 when score 20 <
VA TECH 15-3 L18 when allow 20 < … 4-1-1 LHG… 10-4 L14 vs con opp… 11-5 L16 HF’s… 33-17 home vs opp off SU win… 3-9 con HF’s > 10
Uab 1-4 as favs in ’05 (0-4 MRT)… 2-6 L8 RF’s… 4-8 aft score 17 >
E CAROLINA SERIES: 3-0 L3… 5-1 L6 HD’s… 0-4 L4 final reg season games… ECU 6-26 SU L3 yrs… 3-8 aft score 17 >
Maryland SERIES: 3-1-1 L5 A… 7-0 con dogs 7 < … Terps 3-0 as con RD’s in ’05… Terps on 5-2 ATS run… 3-21-2 when allow 35 > … 1-3 away w/ con rev
NC STATE SERIES: Favorite is 3-16-1… 1-9 favs vs opp w/ rev… 4-16 L20 as favs (0-4 MRT)… 6-17 L23 vs con opp… Wolfpack offense avg 16.6 ppg vs con opp in ‘05
Ole Miss SERIES: 5-1 L6 / 4-1 L5 A / Visitor is 1-4… 9-2 LRG… 5-2 favs vs opp off BB SU losses… 1-7 L8 as favs… Rebels on 7-12 ATS run
MISS ST 8-2 aft allow 35 > vs opp off SU & ATS loss… 4-35 when lose SU vs opp off SU loss (0-19 home)… 4-11 L15 HD’s… Bulldog offense avg 6 ppg vs con opp in ’05… Lost last 3 in series by avg score of 25-5
Iowa State Cyclones on 5-0 ATS run… 7-2 favs off BB SU wins… 12-3 off DD ATS win… 0-5 away vs opp w/ rev… 1-6 away off SU dog win
KANSAS SERIES: 1-6 L7 / 6-2 L8 H / Host is 4-1… Jayhawks 5-0 SU home in ’05… 4-0 L4 HD’s… 0-6 vs opp off SU dog win… 3-11 home off DD SU loss
Cincinnati 4-1 LRG… 8-2 away vs Big East opp… 2-8 dogs off DD SU loss vs opp off DD SU loss… 4-7 L11 RG’s
RUTGERS SERIES: 1-4 L5 / 3-1 L4 H… 5-1 favs off BB SU & ATS losses… 1-6 L7 as favs… 5-18-1 w/ rest… Knights on 3-8 ATS run… 4-8 L12 vs con opp
Marshall 14-3-1 favs or dogs 7 < … 1-6 Nov RG’s… 7-18 L25 when lose SU… 10-22 away vs con opp… Herd hasn’t scored 30 points all season vs lined foe
MEMPHIS 1-11 LHG… 1-8-1 favs 10 < … 3-8 L11 HF’s… Tigers on 4-8 ATS run
Utep SERIES: 5-2 L7 / 3-1 L4 A… 19-12 L31 vs con opp… 4-13 away vs opp w/ rev
SMU 4-1 L5 vs con opp… 3-1 LHG… 5-54-1 when allow 28 > … 14-22-1 L37 as dogs… Mustangs allowing < 20 ppg L6 games
Florida St 7-0 when win SU away w/ rev… 9-4 when win SU off SU loss… 9-16 L25 away vs non con… 3-32-2 when lose SU away… 1-6 off SU loss vs Florida
FLORIDA SERIES: 2-5 L7 / Host is 7-3… 2-20-1 when allow > 30… 4-8 L12 home off SU loss… Gators on 1-5-1 ATS run
Syracuse 3-19 L22 con RD’s… 6-25 when lose SU… 1-3 LRG… Orange on 3-8 ATS run (1-6 MRT)… 13-23 vs opp off SU win… Syracuse offense avg 11 ppg L7 games
L’VILLE 6-1 LHG… 6-1 aft allow 10 < … 8-2 off ATS win > 18… 18-5 L23 when score 35 > … Cards on 16-5 ATS run (5-1 MRT)… 0-5 DD favs w/ rest… 1-6 w/ rest vs < .500 opp
Georgia SERIES: 3-1 L4 / 6-1 L7 A… 9-2 L11 away vs non con… 4-9-1 aft score 20 > … 2-4-1 L7 RF’s… Dawgs on 7-12-2 ATS run
GA TECH SERIES: Host is 1-6… 12-3 L15 non con HD’s… 0-4 LHG… 2-7-1 L10 HG’s… 5-12 L17 aft score 14 <
South Fla 7-2 off DD SU win vs < .500 opp… Bulls 6-1 ATS in ’05… 4-1 L5 RF’s… 9-3 favs vs opp off SU loss… 4-11 when allow 21 >
U CONN 4-0 aft score 10 < … 9-3 off SU & ATS loss… 5-3 L8 HD’s… 1-8 as dogs vs Big East opp… 3-12-3 when allow 24 >
Rice SERIES: Dog is 4-1… Owls on 1-14 SU / 4-11 ATS run… 0-5 RD’s in ’05… Last 2 losses at Houston by 25 & 34 points
HOUSTON 6-1 favs in final reg season games… 5-1 2nd BB HG’s… 0-5 DD HF’s vs .333 < opp… 2-11 L13 DD HF’s… 10-21 home vs opp off SU loss
Utah State SERIES: 3-1 L4… 0-5 LRG… 2-8 L10 vs .333 < opp… 4-10 L14 vs con opp… 2-6 away vs opp w/ rev… 2-5 favs off SU & ATS loss
N MEX ST SERIES: Dog is 5-0… 7-0 w/ rev off BB SU losses… 9-3 home off DD SU loss… 10-4 L14 HD’s (1-3 MRT)… 1-4 L5 HG’s
Tulane SERIES: 1-4 L5 A… 4-1 LRG… 0-9 RD’s < 12 off BB SU losses… Green Wave on 0-6-1 ATS run… 2-6 L8 RD’s (0-3 MRT)
SO MISS 3-0 LHG… 14-7 L21 vs con opp… Eagles on 21-12 ATS run (5-3 MRT)… 19-13 home vs opp w/ rev… 1-6 HF’s vs opp off SU & ATS loss
Idaho 9-0 RD’s 20 < off DD SU loss… 7-1 dogs 10 < … 12-6 dogs off SU & ATS loss… 1-4 Game Eleven… 8-13 L21 away vs con opp
S JOSE ST 8-0 L7 as favs… 8-1 home vs opp off BB SU losses… 8-2 off DD SU win… 5-1 L6 HF’s… 2-5 LHG
Boise State SERIES: 1-3 L4… 11-2 vs opp off BB SU wins… 38-8 when score > 38… 27-10 favs off SU & ATS win… 25-15 favs vs opp w/ rev… 2-6 L8 away vs con opp… 2-4 L6 RF’s
LA TECH 5-1 Game Ten… 6-3 L9 home w/ rev… 4-2 LHG… 1-14 aft score 35 > … 2-8 L10 as dogs… 3-11 w/ rest
Tennessee 7-2 favs vs opp off DD SU loss… 6-3 L9 RF’s… 15-10 away vs opp off SU loss… 2-15 L17 favs (0-12 MRT)… 5-11 L16 vs con opp
KENTUCKY SERIES: 2-7 L9… 5-2 dogs in ’05 (3-0 as HD’s)… Cats on 9-2 ATS run (4-1 MRT)… 0-10 aft allow 35 >
Virginia 13-8 dogs off SU loss… 0-6 LRG… 0-5 L5 RD’s… 7-13 L20 away w/ rev
MIAMI FLA 9-5 L14 when allow 20 < … 0-6 2nd BB HG’s… 0-3 LHG… 7-16 L23 HF’s
Notre Dame SERIES: 6-1 L7 / 5-1 L6 A… 3-1 L4 RF’s… 18-11 L29 away vs opp off SU loss… 0-3 LRG… 16-45 favs vs opp w/ rev… Irish on 8-2 ATS run
STANFORD 6-2 L8 home vs non con… Cardinal on 6-1 ATS run… 10-5 L15 HG’s… 6-4 L10 HD’s… 1-3 LHG
Fresno St SERIES: 5-0-1 L6 / 3-0 L3 A… Bulldogs on 7-1 ATS run… 5-1 L6 RF’s… 10-4 L14 vs con opp… 0-5-1 favs 21 < off DD SU loss
NEVADA 4-1 home off BB SU wins… 9-5 L14 HD’s… 6-12 dogs vs opp off SU loss… 11-18 L29 dogs vs con opp… Wolf Pack offense avg 36 ppg vs con opp in ‘05
ADDED GAMES
Arkansas St SERIES: 1-3 L4… 4-2 dogs 14 < vs opp off BB SU losses… 20-12 dogs off a SU loss… Lost last 2 to North Texas by 44 & 24 pts… Indians offense avg < 10 ppg L4 games
N TEXAS SERIES: Favorite is 4-1… 15-2 L17 home vs con opp… 5-1 LHG… 8-3 home vs opp w/ rev… Mean Green defense allowing 32 ppg this season
Fla Atlantic 4-2 L6 away vs con opp… 2-7 L9 vs opp off SU win… Owls on 3-11 ATS run (3-7 in ’05)
FLA INT’L 0-2 L2 HG’s… FIU outscored by avg of 36-13 in SU lined losses in ‘05
Mid Tenn St 15-1 L16 when win SU… 4-1 LRG… 6-2 L8 away w/ rev… 4-8 L12 away vs con opp
TROY 8-2 L10 off SU loss… 6-2 L8 HG’s (Trojans 33-2 SU home)… 1-3 LHG… 2-8 when allow 24 > … Troy on 3-6 ATS run
UL Lafayte SERIES: 1-3 L4 / 3-1 L4 A… 8-3 L11 as dogs (5-2 L7 RD’s)… 0-10 favs < 5… 0-4 favs w/ rev… 1-12 favs vs con opp… 1-4 L5 RF’s… 5-12 when allow 28 >
UL MONROE SERIES: Host is 1-7 / Dog is 7-0… 5-1 vs con opp in ’05…6-3 L9 HD’s (2-0 MRT)… 1-4 L5 HF’s… 1-4 aft Middle Tenn St… 2-8 vs opp w/ rev (0-5 home)
NFL week 12:
Thursday, November 24
Atlanta SERIES: 6-2 L8 / 4-1 L5 A… 4-0 vs non-div bef BB div gms… 6-1 off BB ATS L… 5-1 A vs NFC North/Central… 8-2 w/ non-div rev… 4-1 non-div RF’s… 4-1 A Game Eleven… 10-3 A vs non-div AFC opp… NOV: 8-3 A vs opp off SU ATS L… 5-2 aft Bucs… 7-3-1 RF’s 3 > pts… 3-7 vs opp off DD SU L
DETROIT 8-1 OFF DD SU L… 7-1 in 1st of BB HG… 6-1 vs NFC South… 4-1 Game Eleven… 7-3 L10 Thanksgiving (4-1 dogs 7 <)… 1-7 aft Cowboys… 1-4 bef Vikings… 1-4 HD’s 7 < pts vs .600 > opp
Denver SERIES: 5-1 L6… 8-2 aft Jets… 8-3-1 A vs NFC… 0-5 Game Eleven… 1-5 off BB DD W… 1-4 A vs opp off BB SU W (last by DD)… 1-4-1 bef Chiefs… 2-7-1 non-div RF/RD 3 < pts… 2-6 Weekday gms… 2-5-1 in 1st of BBRG
DALLAS 4-0-1 H off DD SU W… 10-1 bef Giants… 9-2 Game Eleven… 10-3 H Thanksgiving off SU W… 7-2 H off BB SU W vs AFC opp… 5-2 Turkey Day favs… 7-3-1 HF/HD 3 < pts… NOV: 2-9 vs opp off BB SUATS W… 1-4 aft Lions… 1-4 H w/ OU line 43 < pts
Sunday, November 27
New England SERIES: 6-1 L7 / 4-0 L4 A… 7-1-1 A in between HG… 6-1 bef div HG… 12-3 bef Jets… 4-1 A off DD SU W… 2-11-1 Game Eleven… 1-5 favs vs AFC West… 2-6 RD’s vs non-div opp w/ rev… 2-5 A off SU W but ATS L
KANSAS CITY 7-0 H off SU W vs opp off BB SU W (last by DD)… 18-2 HD’s vs opp off DD SU W… 8-1 bef Broncos… 8-2 vs non-div bef div gm… 10-4 in 1st of BB HG… 0-5 game Eleven… *1-9 H off BB SUATS L… *3-7 off SU road fav L… 3-7 H vs AFC East
Baltimore SERIES: 19-7 L26 / 8-3 L11 A… 6-0-1 A vs div off div HG… 11-2 in 2nd Bengals gm… 9-2-1 w/ SS rev… 8-3 RD’s vs opp off SU L… 8-3 dogs 6 > off SU dog W… 2-4 vs .666 > opp…
CINCINNATI 6-0 Game Eleven… 4-1 div favs 3 >… 4-1 bef Steelers… 0-4 vs opp w/ SS rev… 1-4 aft Colts… 1-4 HF’s off HG… 1-4 favs 4 > vs .333 < opp… DIV: 4-12 vs opp off SU dog W… NOV: 4-11 H off SU L (0-4 vs opp off DD L)
Carolina NOV: 4-0 off SU fav L… 13-2 aft allow 14 < pts BB… 5-1 vs opp off DD SU L… 9-2 bef Falcons… 4-1 favs bef div HG… 0-3 RF’s off RG… 1-7 non-con favs… 1-7 RF’s 2 > pts… 1-5 away bef 3 straight div gms
BUFFALO 4-0-1 H Game Eleven… 5-1 off DD SU L… 4-1 bef Dolphins… 6-2 H in between RG… 1-7 vs opp playing 2nd of BB RG… 2-7 vs .700 > opp (1-5 H)… NOV: 3-8-1 vs opp off SU fav L
Chicago 6-1 A Game Eleven… 4-1 A vs .600 > opp… 6-2-1 Nov RG… 1-6 A in between HG… 2-5-1 vs NFC South… 1-5 off BB HG… 3-8-1 off BB SU W (last as dog)… 2-5 bef Packers
TAMPA BAY SERIES: 5-2 L7 H / Series FAV: 8-3… 6-1 H off SU dog W… 4-1-1 bef BB RG… 4-1-1 H vs non-div opp w/ rev… 11-3 H vs non-div off div RG… 1-5 off BB ATS W… 1-4 aft Falcons… 3-9 favs 4 < pts… 4-7-1 vs .600 > opp
San Diego SERIES: Dog 5-1… 8-1 off DD SU W… 5-1-1 dogs 3 < pts… 9-3 A vs NFC… 7-2 RF’s 4 < pts… 5-2 vs opp off BB SU L… 3-7 A bef Raiders… 2-5 non-div RD’s
WASHINGTON 4-1 Game Eleven… 13-5 non-div HF/HD 3 < pts… 1-5 H off non-con gm… 1-4 off SU fav L… 3-9 in 2nd of BB HG… 1-4 dogs 3 < pts… 2-7 H vs AFC West
Cleveland 5-0 dogs vs opp off Monday… 15-3 A w/ OU 40 > pts… 0-8 RD’s bef HG… 1-4 bef Jaguars… 1-4 A off SUATS W… 2-6 non-con RD’s 7 < pts
MINNESOTA 5-0 H vs AFC… 6-1 non-div favs 4 < pts… 4-1 Game Eleven… 6-2 off BB RG… 0-4 aft Packers… 2-5 Nov HF’s… 3-5 H aft Monday night
San Francisco 6-1-1 vs non-div in between div gms… 1-5-1 dogs 4 < pts… 1-5 bef HG vs Cardinals… 2-8-1 vs AFC… 1-4 aft Seahawks… 2-7 A in between HG… 2-6 Game Eleven
TENNESSEE 10-2 H vs NFC… 5-1 vs non-div in between div gms… 6-2 bef Colts… 6-2 off HG vs Jaguars… 8-3-1 vs NFC West… 0-4 in 2nd of BB HG… 1-5 H Game Eleven
St. Louis 7-2 favs aft Cardinals… 7-3 A vs .250 < opp… 0-5 A vs non-div off div HG… 1-6 bef Redskins… 3-14 RF’s S/ 2001… 2-8 Game Eleven… 2-6 A vs AFC
HOUSTON 6-1 in 2nd of BB HG… 5-2 dogs vs .500 < opp… *1-5 H off SU L vs opp off DD SU W… 1-5 non-div dogs 4 > pts… 1-4-1 vs NFC… *3-8 dogs off SU dog W
Jacksonville 4-0 bef Browns… 14-3 favs off div RG… 8-3 vs .333 < opp… 4-1 A vs non-div opp… 2-11 L13 as RF’s… 1-4 A vs NFC West… 1-4 favs in 2nd of BB RG
ARIZONA 6-1 H off div RG… 4-1 vs opp off BB SU W… 2-8 aft Rams… 1-4 bef Niners… 3-10 vs AFC
Miami SERIES: 5-1 L6 / 3-1 L4 A… 16-3 vs AFC West… 11-3-1 bef Bills… 1-6 dogs 3 < pts… 2-6 in 2nd of BB RG
OAKLAND 4-1 Game Eleven… 12-5 favs vs AFC East… 7-3 non-div favs 3 < pts… 5-2 favs vs opp playing 2nd of BB RG… 0-4 bef RG vs Chargers… 2-10 H in between RG… 3-7 favs vs .400 < opp
NY Giants 8-1 A vs non-div bef div HG… 5-1 bef Cowboys… 10-3 off BB HG… 9-3 vs NFC West… 11-5 RD’s vs non-div NFC opp… 0-6 Game Eleven…
SEAHAWKS SERIES: 5-1-1 L7… 8-2 bef Monday… 0-6 vs NFC East… 1-6 aft Niners… 1-5 vs .666 > opp… 1-4-1 H Game Eleven… NOV: 3-9 vs opp off DD SU W… NOV: 4-11 H off SU W
Packers 11-2 aft Monday night… 10-2 vs non-div NFC opp… 5-1 dogs vs opp off BB SU L… 5-1 w/ non-div rev vs .500 < opp… 5-2 dogs 4 < pts… 7-3-1 aft Vikings… 1-6 dogs vs NFC East… 1-4 bef RG vs Bears… 2-5 in 1st of BB RG
EAGLES SERIES: 5-0 L5 / 4-0 L4 H… 5-0 Game Eleven… 5-0 vs opp off Monday… 5-0 vs NFC North… 9-1 in 1st of BB HG… 6-1 off 3 SU L… 5-1 aft Giants… 10-3 vs non-div NFC opp… 2-5 favs 4 < pts vs non-div opp w/ rev
Saints SERIES: 4-1 L5 / 4-0 L4 A… 10-2 A vs AFC East… 10-4 RD’s off BB SU L vs opp off DD SU L… 0-4-1 dogs 4 < pts… 1-5 dogs off SU L but ATS W… 1-5 Game Eleven… 2-6 bef Buccaneers… 3-7 in 2nd of BB RG
NY JETS 6-0 H off DD SU L… 4-0 HF’s 3 > pts… 10-3 H off BB RG… 0-15 bef RG vs Patriots… 0-5 aft Broncos… NOV: 1-6 H when < .500 vs non-div opp… 1-5 vs .333 < opp.. 3-7 H Game Eleven
Monday, November 28
Pittsburgh SERIES: 6-2 L8… 9-0-1 in 2nd of BB RG… 10-1 A vs non-div in between div gms… 7-1 vs .750 > opp… 10-2 dogs 4 > pts… 4-1-1 aft Ravens… 4-1 bef HG vs Bengals… 18-7 Mondays… 1-5 game Eleven… 1-5 Mondays vs opp off SUATS W… 2-6 vs AFC South
INDIANAPOLIS 4-0 vs non-div bef BB div gms… 4-1 vs AFC North… 4-1 Monday favs… 6-1 favs bef div HG… 5-2 bef HG vs Titans… 1-9 H vs .700 > opp… 2-5-1 H Game Eleven
MARC LAWRENCE INCREDIBLE STAT OF THE WEEK
The ARIZONA WILDCATS are 2-26 ATS in games they allow > 28 points
versus an opponent that is off a loss.
posted by phantom
Nov. 23 2005 10:18pm