dr bob :
3 Star Selection
11 am Pacific - Game #344
***BAYLOR (-2.5) 26 Oklahoma St. 14
Baylor coach Guy Morriss made a mistake by appointing erratic Terrance Parks the starting quarterback in Baylor's
last two games. Parks is a horrible passing quarterback who has completed only 45% of his passes while throwing 6
interceptions in just 71 pass attempts (8.5%). Veteran Shawn Bell, meanwhile, has completed 59% of his passes this
season and has thrown only 7 interceptions in 496 career pass attempts (1.4%). Bell has averaged only 5.3 yards per
pass play (against teams that would allow 6.1 yppp), and the Bears' offense rates at 0.4 yards per play worse than
average with Bell at the controls, but that attack matches up pretty evenly against a sub-par Oklahoma State defense
that has allowed 6.2 yppl this season to teams that would average 5.9 yppl against an average defensive unit. The
other side of the ball is where the defensively sound Bears have their advantage in this game. Baylor has yielded
just 5.1 yppl this season to a schedule of teams that would average 5.7 yppl against an average defensive team and
that unit should have no trouble shutting down an Oklahoma State attack that has averaged 4.7 yppl against teams
that would allow 5.4 yppl to an average team. The Cowboys have been improving offensively in recent weeks, but they
are still 0.4 yppl worse than average in conference play. Oklahoma State will probably have pretty good success on
the ground in this game (my math model projects 5.3 yprp), but Baylor will also have good luck running the ball (5.4
yprp projected) and the Bears are a much better passing team with Bell back in the lineup and with freshman Bobby
Reid (4.2 yppp against teams that would allow 6.7 yppp to an average quarterback) back at quarterback for Oklahoma
State after missing time with an injury. Baylor also has outstanding special teams and my math model favors the
Bears by 14 ½ points in this game. The Bears have been able to take care of business against lesser teams under
Morriss (3-0 ATS as a favorite) and should do so again here. I'll lay 4 points or less with Baylor and will make the
Bears a 3-Star Best Bet if the line stays at -3 or less.
Downgrade Baylor to a 2-Star Best Bet if they become a favorite of more than 3 points (a Strong Opinion if they are
favored by more than 4 points).
3 Star Selection
1:30 pm Pacific - Game #359
***East Carolina 30 MARSHALL (-6.5) 24
The wrong team is favored in this game and there is a supporting situation to add to the overall value on East
Carolina. The Pirates were killed last week by Tulsa, but they've been a good value most of this season (6-3 ATS)
and are a good value today. ECU is just mediocre offensively (5.6 yards per play against teams that would allow 5.7
yppl to an average team) and they are slightly worse than a Marshall defense that has given up 5.3 yppl this season
to teams that would average 5.3 yppl against an average stop unit. The match-up on the other side of the ball is
pretty close too, as Marshall's offense has been 0.9 yppl worse than average this season (4.7 yppl against teams
that would allow 5.6 yppl to an average attack) and East Carolina's defense is 0.6 yppl worse than average (5.6 yppl
allowed to teams that would average 5.0 yppl against an average team). Marshall's offense figures to be better with
quarterback Bernie Morris likely to miss this game with an injured toe, as Morris' good running ability (336 yards
at 5.4 yards per rushing play) is more than offset by his horrible passing numbers (4.0 yards per pass play against
teams that would allow 6.3 yppp to an average quarterback). Morris had been splitting time with Jimmy Skinner this
season and Skinner will probably get the bulk of the work in this game even if Morris is well enough to play.
Skinner doesn't take sacks (just 4) and is a decent passer when he's throwing the ball to his own team, as he's
averaged 6.1 yppp (against teams that would allow 6.3 yppp to an average QB) while throwing 7 interceptions in his
132 pass attempts (5.3%). Skinner doesn't run at all, so his good passing numbers are offset by his higher
interception rate and not having Morris' running numbers. Overall, Marshall rates at only 0.3 yppl worse than
average with Skinner at quarterback, but the additional likelihood of interceptions dampens the affect of that yards
per play improvement. Aside from projected turnovers (ECU QB Pinkney has only a 2.3% INT rate), East Carolina also
has a 4.3 points edge in special teams and the math model favors the Pirates by 1 ½ points in this game. In addition
to the line value, Marshall applies to a negative 14-46 ATS late season off a bye angle and the Thundering Herd are
0-5 ATS in their last 5 as a favorite while East Carolina is 4-1 ATS this season as a road underdog. The Pirates'
chance for a winning record and possible Bowl bid ended with last week's loss to Tulsa, but it turns out that teams
that lose to fall to 3-6 are actually 39-23 ATS as road underdogs the next week, including 16-5 ATS if visiting a
losing team ? so there doesn't appear to be any emotional letdown this week for the Pirates. I'll take the points
with East Carolina in a 3-Star Best Bet.
2 Star Selection
11 am Pacific - Game #313
**Missouri 28 KANSAS ST. (-2.5) 21
Kansas State coach Bill Snyder, who resurrected the Wildcats in the 80's, has announced his retirement after a
second straight disappointing season. The reaction to this news was a line move in Kansas State's favor, as there is
a belief that the emotions of Snyder's last game will carry the Cats to victory. That emotion didn't work in Barry
Alvarez's last home game at Wisconsin last week and I don't see it being a factor in this game. The retirement
announcement may actually be more of a distraction this week and cut into preparation time for a Kansas State team
that will no be going to a bowl game this year. There is incentive for Missouri, however, as the Tigers qualify in a
very strong 40- 8 ATS last game revenge angle that is 29-4 ATS when applying to underdogs. Missouri is also the
better team. Kansas State's only win all season over a decent team was a 12-3 fluke of a win over Kansas in a game
in which the Wildcats were out-gained 2.7 yards per play to 4.4 yppl by the Jayhawks, who fumbled the ball away 3
times in that game (0 fumbles for K State). Missouri is not a great team, but at least they have beaten some decent
teams (Iowa State and Nebraska). Missouri's Brad Smith is the best player on either team and while Smith is not a
good passer (5.0 yards per pass play against teams that would allow 6.0 yppp to an average quarterback), he is among
the best running quarterbacks in the nation (1188 yards at 6.7 yards per rushing play) and the Tigers' attack rates
as exactly average with Smith at quarterback and without leading receiver Sean Coffey, who will likely miss this
game with a shoulder injury. Running back Marcus Woods (4.9 ypr) is also questionable this week, but backups Tony
Temple (5.4 ypr) and Jimmy Jackson (5.3 ypr) are actually better runners. Kansas State's is a bit better than
average (5.2 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.4 yppl against an average team), but the Wildcats couldn't
contain the only other good running quarterback that they faced this season ? allowing Texas A&M's Reggie McNeal to
gain 135 yards on 14 running plays. Kansas State's offense was bad to begin with but took a turn for the worse when
Snyder installed Allan Evridge at quarterback in game 5. The Wildcats have averaged only 4.3 yppl in 6 games with
Evridge at quarterback (against teams that would allow 5.1 yppl to an average team) and they should have their
normal poor outing against an average Missouri defense (5.2 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.2 yppl
against an average defense). Missouri has scored 27 points or more in every game except for games against very good
defensive teams Texas, Kansas and Colorado and they should score at least 27 points in this game. Kansas State,
meanwhile, has scored more than 25 points only against bad defensive teams Florida International, North Texas and
Texas A&M and they were lucky to score 25 points last week against Nebraska (Kansas State averaged only 4.4 yppl in
that game). In all the other games against mediocre and good defensive teams, the Wildcats scored 21 points or fewer
and that is probably what they'll get in this game. Overall, the math favors Missouri by 1 ½ points and the
situation favoring the Tigers is certainly strong enough to make them a pretty good play in this game, especially as
an underdog. I'll take Missouri in a 2-Star Best Bet as an underdog and I'll Upgrade Missouri to a 3-Star Best Bet
if they become an underdog of 3 points or more
Downgrade Missouri to a Strong Opinion if they are not an underdog of 1 point or more.
2 Star Selection
12 pm Pacific - Game #357
**Utah 30 BYU (-11.5) 33
Utah lost starting quarterback Brain Johnson near the end of last week's 27-31 home loss to New Mexico, but there
appears to be an overreaction to that injury and the Utes' upset loss sets them up in a 46-12-1 ATS road underdog
bounce-back situation. Johnson was having a very productive season, averaging 7.7 yards per pass play (against teams
that would allow 6.2 yppp to an average quarterback), and it will be tough for backup Brett Ratliff to play at that
level. However, Ratliff actually has more college experience than Johnson (a freshman) and he set records at Butte
College, where former Cal quarterback and first round NFL draft pick played his JC ball. Ratliff was also impressive
in pre- season team scrimmages and the players believe in him (and he believes in himself, based on stories I've
read this week). So, Ratliff certainly won't be that bad and Utah shouldn't be more than a dog of 5 or 6 points even
if Ratliff is only an average passer. Utah also lost leading receiver John Madsen early in last week's game, but
Travis LaTendresse returned from missing a few games with an injury and caught 9 passes for 192 yards and Madsen's
modest 12.2 yards per catch probably won't be tough to replace (especially with LaTendresse back in action). Utah's
offense is 0.8 yards per play better than average for the season and they would rate as 0.2 yppl better than average
in a worst case scenario (that Ratliff is only average). Getting his first Division 1A start against BYU will make
it easier for Ratliff given that the Cougars have allowed 7.4 yppp this season to teams that would average 6.3 yppp
against an average defense. Overall, BYU is 0.8 yppl worse than average defensively (6.2 yppl allowed to teams that
would average 5.4 yppl against an average team), so Utah's attack should function pretty well even with a backup
quarterback and without top receiver John Madsen (also injured last week). BYU's offense has been potent of late
(mostly against bad defensive teams) and the Cougars have 6.1 yppl this season (against teams that would allow 5.3
yppl to an average team). That attack will function at about their average pace against a mediocre Utes' defense
that has given up 5.3 yppl this season to teams that would average a combined 5.2 yppl against an average defensive
team. So, if I assume the worst - that the Utah pass attack goes from being 1.5 yppp better than average to just
average (without Johnson and Madsen) - then Utah still have a slight advantage from the line of scrimmage (Utah's
offense would have a 1.0 yppl edge over BYU's defense and BYU's offense has a 0.9 yppl advantage over the Utes'
defense). The biggest difference between these teams this season has been luck. BYU is +7 in fumbles recovered
margin and Utah is -7 in fumbles recovered margin and my research shows that fumbles are almost random, so that is
an edge that the Cougars can not count on to be nearly as much as it has been this season. After making the
adjustments for Utah's offense, which I probably downgraded too much, the math favors BYU by only 5 ½ points in this
game (the math favored Utah by 1 before the adjustements). BYU has won and covered their last 3 games, but the first
two of those came against slumping teams with horrible defensive units (Air Force and UNLV) and last week's 35-21
win over Wyoming was a fluke considering that the Cougars were out-gained by Wyoming 5.9 yppl to 7.0 yppl and won
because of a fortunate +5 in turnover margin. Utah, meanwhile, out- gained New Mexico 6.1 yppl to 4.0 yppl and lost
because they were -3 in turnover margin. Those disparate results are why there is so much line value on the side of
the Utes this week (that and the overreaction to Johnson's injury). This series, like most between nearby rivals,
has favored the road team (14-7 ATS) and the underdog (15-6 ATS) and road dogs in this rivalry are 11-3 ATS over the
years. The 46-12-1 ATS situation makes it likely that Utah will bounce-back this week with a good effort and there
is certainly line value, so I'll take Utah in a 2-Star Best Bet at +10 points or more.
Downgrade Utah to a Strong Opinion if they become an underdog of less than 10 points.
Upgrade Utah to a 3-Star Best Bet if they become an underdog of 13 points or more.
Strong Opinion
9 am Pacific - Game #376
VIRGINIA 21 Virginia Tech (-7.0) 23
Virginia has covered in 9 straight games as a home underdog and Virginia Tech may not have prepared as well as
normal during the bye week following their first loss of the season (to Miami-Florida). The Hokies apply to a
negative 34-79 ATS off a late-season bye angle and the home team in this series has covered 5 straight years. All of
that technical analysis is only enough to make Virginia a Strong Opinion at +7 points or more because the line
appears to be a bit too low. Virginia came through for me last week, but the Cavaliers are just mediocre offensively
(5.4 yppl against teams that would allow 5.5 yppl to an average team) and they could have a tough time moving the
ball against a good Hokies' defense that is an impressive 1.4 yppl better than average (4.0 yppl allowed to teams
that would average 5.4 yppl against an average defensive team). Virginia's hope in this game rests with their
defense, which is better since All-American linebacker Ahmad Brooks returned to health 4 games ago. The Cavaliers
are 0.6 yppl better than average in those last 4 games (4.6 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.2 yppl
against an average defense) and they should be able to contain a Virginia Tech attack that is 0.6 yppl better than
average for the season (5.7 yppl against teams that would allow 5.1 yppl to an average team). Despite their
reputation as being very good in special teams, the Hokies are actually at a 3.5 points disadvantage in special
teams in this game and my math model favors Virginia Tech by 8 ½ points. The situation and Virginia's 9-0 ATS mark
as a home dog are worth 6 ½ points and the Cavs have a profitable 56.0% chance of covering at +7 points and I'll
consider Virginia a Strong Opinion at +7 points or more.
Strong Opinion
10 am Pacific - Game #321
Duke 13 NORTH CAROLINA (-24.0) 31
I realize that this is a rivalry game, but how fired up can North Carolina be for this game with a date against
Virginia Tech coming up next week? North Carolina has to win this game and win in Blacksburg to get themselves into
a bowl game, so last week's overtime loss to Maryland may have been emotionally crippling. North Carolina's offense
also may not be good enough (4.8 yards per play against teams that would allow 5.0 yppl to an average team) to win
by a big margin in this game even though Duke's defense rates at 0.8 yppl worse than average. Duke finally covered a
spointspread in their 20-49 loss at Clemson as a 30 point dog, as freshman quarterback Zack Asack had by far his
best game of the season, throwing for 328 yards and 7.0 yards per pass play against Clemson's solid defense. Duke's
offense is better under Asack, but they still rate at 1.0 yppl worse than average and must face a Tarheels' defense
that is 0.6 yppl better than average (5.3 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.9 yppl against an average
defensive team). Overall, my math model favors North Carolina by 25 ½ points, but the Tarheels also apply to a
negative 12-42-1 ATS situation that is worth 7 ½ points. Also, pathetic teams are actually pretty good bets as road
underdogs in their final game of the season, as teams with 1 or fewer wins are 29-18 ATS as road underdogs of 7
points or more in their final game of the season, including 6-1 ATS after a bye week and 13-2 ATS if visiting a team
with a losing record ? both of which apply here. Duke has a solid 57% chance of covering at the current line of +24
points, which is good enough to make the Blue Devils a Strong Opinion at +24 points or more, and I'd Upgrade Duke to
a 2-Star Best Bet if they become an underdog of +26 points or more.
Strong Opinion
10 am Pacific - Game #331
Ohio St. (-3.0) 25 MICHIGAN 17
I was looking forward to making Ohio State a big play in this game, but the Wolverines qualify in a number of strong
situations, which will keep me from making the Buckeyes a Best Bet in this game. There is no doubt that Ohio State
is a far superior team on both sides of the ball and on special teams. The Buckeyes' offense has been electrifying
since Troy Smith took over full-time at quarterback, as that unit has averaged 6.6 yards per play in the last 7
games (Smith missed game 1 and split time in the next two games with backup Zwick) ? against teams that would
combine to allow 5.0 yppl to an average offensive team. Michigan's defense has been very good, rating at 1.2 yppl
better than average since their second game of the season (4.9 yppl allowed to teams that would average a combined
6.1 yppl against an average defensive team) after playing a "vanilla" defense in their opener against Northern
Illinois. However, the Buckeyes have a 0.4 yppl advantage when they have the ball. Ohio State's advantage is much
more pronounced with the Wolverines have the ball, as the Buckeyes' dominating defense (4.3 yppl allowed to teams
that would average 6.1 yppl against an average stop unit) has a 1.5 yppl advantage over a Michigan offense that has
averaged only 5.2 yppl this season (against teams that would allow 5.2 yppl to an average offense) and rates at only
0.3 yppl better than average after adjusting for a healthy Mike Hart at running back (he's only been healthy for 4
games this year) and for only pass plays with Chad Henne at quarterback. Michigan does have very good special teams
(+6.3 points per game better than an average Division 1A team), but Ohio State's special teams (+9.6 points) are the
second best in the nation and my math model favors the Buckeyes by 14 ½ points overall here in the Big House. Sadly,
the Buckeyes also apply to a negative 30-72-1 ATS situation while Michigan applies to a 33-9 ATS home underdog
momentum situation and a 178-89-7 ATS home momentum situation. Those angles overlap a bit and their overall value is
6 points, which takes away some of the line value favoring Ohio State. Ohio State still has a solid 56.6% chance of
covering at -3 points and I'll consider Ohio State a Strong Opinion at -3 points or less.
Upgrade Ohio State to a 2-Star Best Bet if the line drops to -1 point or better.
Strong Opinion
10 am Pacific - Game #386
NO CAROLINA ST. (-17.5) 31 Middle Tenn 7
I realize that NC State is just 15-25 ATS as a favorite under coach Amato (2-14 ATS recently), but most of that
damage has come in ACC games. The Wolfpack are actually 8-6 ATS as a favorite in non-conference games under Amato
(2-3 out of that 2-14 recently) and they should dominate Middle Tennessee State today in a game that they need to be
focused on given that they need to win their last 2 games to make it to a bowl game this season. Middle Tennessee
State only lost by 19 points as a 22 point dog at Alabama earlier this season and the Blue Raiders have a decent
defense (5.0 yards per play allowed to teams that would average 4.8 yppl against an average team), but their
pathetic offense (4.7 yppl against teams that would allow 6.4 yppl to an average team) won't have any success
against a good NC State defense that has yielded only 4.5 yppl to a schedule of teams that would combine to average
5.4 yppl against an average stop unit. NC State's offense is nothing special (5.1 yppl against teams that would
allow 5.2 yppl against an average defensive team ? but they rate at exactly average with Andre Brown at tailback).
The Wolfpack offense is only slightly better than the MTS defense, but NC State will enjoy good field position
thanks to their defense and a 5.8 points advantage in special teams. My math model favors NC State by 27 ½ points in
this game and the math would still favors the Wolfpack by 21 points if I only used their games this season when they
were favored (including the Eastern Kentucky no line game). In two games against non-conference teams NC State
actually performed slightly better than their overall numbers, so it has really only been the ACC games as favorites
in which they have played poorly (a -3 in turnovers cost them the cover against Southern Miss, which is mostly
random). With incentive to win this game and the huge talent edge, the Wolfpack should be able to distance
themselves in this game and I will consider NC State a Strong Opinion in this game.
