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INSIGHTS FOR SATURDAY 11/19

COLLEGE FOOTBALL

-- Maryland covered five of last six games, but at 5-4, still needs one more win to be bowl eligible.

-- Home team covered last seven Purdue-Indiana games.

-- Kansas State coach Snyder, who built Wildcats into a power when they were a joke, announced his retirement this week. This is his last game. K-State won last five games vs Missouri, winning last two at this site, 24-3/24-14.

-- Underdog is 10-5 vs spread in last 15 Northwestern-Illinois games.

-- Ball State won four of last five games vs Central Michigan, with Chippewas losing last two visits to Muncie, 38-34/27-14. Ball had 27-0 lead in last year's game, but lost 41-40.

-- Road team won four of last five Duke-North Carolina games, with teams splitting last two at this site, and UNC winning four of five, with three of the four wins by 23+ points.

-- Home side won last two Cincinnati-South Florida games, with Bulls winning in OT in game at this site, 24-17. Bearcats outgained USF 577-323 in last year's game, but Bulls can go to BCS bowl if they win out.

-- Georgia won its last five games vs Kentucky, winning last two at this site, 43-29/30-10; they routed UK 62-17 in Lexington last year, gaining 589 yards and forcing six UK turnovers.

-- Ole Miss has battled LSU recently, losing last four in series, but with none of the losses by more than 11 points, and last three by total of seven points. Dogs covered seven of last eight series games. LSU ran ball for 360 yards in last year's 27-24 win. Ole Miss had five disgruntled players quit this week.

-- Tennessee covered five of last seven games vs Vanderbilt, shutting Vandy out in three of last four years, outscoring them 86-0 in last two at this site, but Vols' QB situation is a mess- they've changed starters five times this season. Commodores blew bowl chances with 48-43 home loss to Kentucky; they trailed 34-3 in first half.

-- Buffalo won its first game of year last week, after its coach had been fired during week; Bulls lost last two games vs Eastern Michigan by combined total of seven points.

-- Underdog covered 11 of last 13 Arkansas-Miss State games, with Hogs winning last five, last two at this site by 24-21/52-6 scores. Bulldogs covered their last three games at Little Rock.

-- Oklahoma State is 7-1-2 vs spread in last ten games vs Baylor, winning last five SU, all by 17+ points; OSU won last two visits to Waco, 38-22/38-21.

-- Central Florida won seven of its last eight games, covering the last four, but they're just 1-1 as favorite this season.

-- Idaho lost last three visits to Boise's blue carpet by 66-24/38-21/65-7 scores; Broncos outgained Idaho 572-202 in last year's game.

-- Nevada won five of its last six games, is bowl elgiible; they're 2-2 on road, with favorite covering all four games.

-- Utah lost its QB to injury last week; road team covered 11 of last 13 games in this rivalry, with Utes' last two visits to this site both decided by FG. In last two years, Utes drilled BYU 52-21, after shutting Cougars out 3-0, ending huge BYU streak of not having been shut out.

-- Marshall covered four of its last five games; only one of their last four was decided by more than three points.

-- UAB lost four of last five games; they covered three of their four road games.

-- New Mexico State is 0-10, failing to cover last six. San Jose St lost its last eight games (2-6 vs spread).

-- Tulsa-Tulane is being played at UL-Monroe, as Green Wave plays 10th game on 10th different field.

-- Underdog covered seven of last nine Colorado State-UNLV games; Rams won their last two visits to Strip by combined total of three points; only one of last five series games was decided by more than a FG.

-- Home side covered seven of last eight, won last four Air Force-New Mexico games, with Falcons losing last two visits to this site, 52-33/24-12. Lobos were just 9-22 passing in this game last year.

-- Southern Miss playing third game in 13 days; home side won their last five games vs Memphis, with Tigers losing last three visits to this site, 24-3/33-14/23-6. Tigers lost 20-16 at Tennessee with star RB Williams sitting out with injured ankle.

-- San Diego State won four of last five games vs Wyoming, with Cowboys losing last two games at this site, 38-16/25-20. Home side is 8-3-1 vs spread in series.

-- SMU covered four of last five games. Houston needs one win to become bowl eligible.

-- Middle Tennessee is 2-0 as underdog this year, knocking off Vanderbilt in Nashville and covering at Alabama. NC State is 4-5 needs th

-- Arkansas State scored total of 19 points in last three games. Army won its last three games; they're favored for first time this year.

-- UL-Monroe covered five of its last seven games. North Texas lost seven of its last eight games.

Totals Report

-- Under is 7-1 in last eight Iowa games, 2-7 in last nine Gopher games.

-- Under is 5-3 in Ohio State's last eight games.

-- Under is 7-1 in Temple's last eight games.

-- Six of last eight South Carolina games went over the total.

-- Six of last seven Oklahoma games went over the total.

-- Under is 4-1 in Syracuse's last five games.

-- Four of last five Washington games went over total.

-- Last seven Alabama games stayed under the total.

-- Last four Michigan State games stayed under the total.

-- Average total in last three Duck-Beaver games is 64.7.

-- Average total in last five Cal-Stanford games is 51.4.

-- Last five Virginia games stayed under the total.

-- Last four Fresno State games all stayed under the total.

-- Five of last six Miami games stayed under the total.

-- Six of last seven Boston College games stayed under the total

-- Four of last five Indiana games went over the total.

-- Six of last eight Kansas State games went over the total.

-- Last five Northwestern games stayed under the total.

-- Four of last five Ball State games stayed under.

-- Under is 4-1 in North Carolina home games this season.

-- Five of seven South Florida games stayed under the total.

-- Average total in last five Georgia-Kentucky games is 70.

-- Four of last five LSU games stayed under the total.

-- Six of last eight Vanderbilt games went over the total.

-- Under is 8-1-1 in Eastern Michiganm games this season.

-- Under is 6-1-1 in last eight Mississippi State games.

-- Four of last five Oklahoma State games went over the total.

-- Five of six Central Florida road games stayed under the total.

-- Seven of nine Boise State games stayed under total.

-- There are no totals trends in Nevada-Utah State game.

-- Over is 3-1 in last four BYU games, 3-0 in last three Utah tilts.

-- Five of last seven East Carolina games stayed under the total.

-- Three of last four UTEP games went over the total.

-- Last four New Mexico State games went over the total.

-- Last five Tulane games all went over the total.

-- Seven of ten UNLV games went over the total.

-- Over is 8-1-1 in New Mexico games this season.

-- Three of four Memphis road games went over the total.

-- Under is 5-1 in last six San Diego State games.

-- Seven of nine SMU games stayed under the total.

-- Last six NC State games stayed under the total.

-- Three of four Arkansas State games went over the total.

-- Five of last six UL-Monroe games went over the total.

phantom

posted by phantom

Nov. 18 2005 8:13pm

1 replies

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    Saturday's Games

    Televised Games

    Iowa won its last four games vs Minnesota, with wins at this site by 42-24/40-22 scores; home side covered four of last five in series, with last 5 series totals were all 51+. Gophers outrushed Iowa 337-6 last year, but Tate had 333 passing yards. Iowa is 0-4 if it allows 23+ points, 6-0 if it doesn't; Minnesota has scored 31+ in each of last four games and is 3-1 at home, losing only at Penn State. Gophers are 1-1 as dog this season; they ran ball for 264+ yards in eight of their ten games.

    Michigan won its last four games, scoring 74 points in last two, after stretch of five games in row that were decided by three or less points. Wolverines are 2-0 as underdog this season. Ohio State won, covered last five games; they're 0-2 this year if they score less than 27 points. Tressel is 3-1 vs Michigan, with home side 3-1 in those games; Ohio State outrushed Michigan 205-71 in 37-21 win last year.

    Temple won its last two games vs Navy, but edges for Owls end there. Temple is 0-10, 4-6 vs spread, with only one loss by less than 25 points. Navy won five of last seven games; their last two wins were by 49-21/41-9 scores over equally overwhelmed teams. Average score in last six Temple games is a 45-7 Owl loss. Clemson won four of last five games after 2-3 start; underdog is 10-0 vs spread in their games this year.

    South Carolina won last five games (4-1 vs spread) Road team covered 12 of last 16 Clemson-South Carolina games, with last year's game marred by ugly brawl at end; Tigers won last visit here, 63-17, but Gamecocks off wins vs Florida, Tennessee, while Clemson beat Seminoles last week. Clemson won last three series games, by 7-46-22 points, covered last four; they're 4-1 in last five games overall.

    Road team covered seven of last 11 Oklahoma-Texas Tech games, but Sooners won last five, winning last two in Lubbock, 30-13/56-25; Tech outgained OU by 52 yards last year, but were -4 in turnovers in 28-13 Sooner win. Tech is 3-1 as home fave, but lost at Oklahoma State last week, as 23-point favorite; they were 0 for 10 on third down. Oklahoma won its last four in row, last three by seven or less points; they're 1-2 as dog this year.

    Syracuse throttled Notre Dame 38-12 two years ago, as 2-point home dog; total yardage in that game was 456-261, Orange. Lot has changed since then, as Notre Dame headed to BCS bowl, while Syracuse has one win. Orange is 0-6 vs spread in last six games, with five of those six losses by 17+ points. Irish are 5-1 vs spread in last six games; this is their last home game

    Washington won four of last five Apple Cup games, covering all five; State lost last two visits to Seattle by 12,8 points, but are somehow favored in this event. State outrushed Huskies 153-71 in last year's 28-25 win, fourth straight year dog won SU. Huskies ended six-game loss skid last week; they scored 34,38 points in their two wins this year. Wazoo lost last seven games; why are they road favorite? Well, five of the six losses were by four or less points, so they've competed better than Huskies, but haven't been able to finish anyone off. In last 25 years of the Apple Cup, Wazoo is 0-2 as road favorite at Seattle.

    Tough bounceback for Alabama squad that lost in OT last week, ending dream for unbeaten season; visitor covered eight of last 10 meetings in this very intense rivalry (dogs are 8-3 vs spread). Auburn won four of last five series meetings, splitting last two at this site. Tigers covered seven of last nine games; both teams lost their starting C to injury in recent weeks. Bama is 1-0-1 as underdog this season, but in last four SEC games, it has scored just 12.3 ppg, missing star WR Prothro.

    Penn State, home side won four of last five Penn St-Michigan St games, with all four home wins by 19+ points; Lions lost here two years ago, 41-10, as 5-point dog. Spartans are 13-0-1 vs spread in last home game last 14 years. JoePa was outgained 338-297 by Sparty last year, but used +4 turnover ration to gain 37-13 win. Michigan State lost five of last six games, and hasn't recovered from bL**Ked FG debacle at Ohio State, but they can go to bowl if they win this game. Lions covered their last six in row; they're 2-1 on road, winning by 5,53 points.

    Home side covered seven of last eight Duck-Beaver games, with home side winning last five, and Beavers losing last two visits to this site, 17-14/34-20. State outgained Oregon 455-235 in last year's game, a 50-21 Beaver win. Oregon is 9-1, winning last six in row despite using #'s 2-3 QB's in relief of injured Clemens. Their last three wins have all been by seven or less pts. State is 1-3 in last four games; they've only turned ball over twice in the last two games, after 26 in previous six, but they're 1-3 as a dog.

    Favorite (Cal) covered last three Cal -Stanford games after being 4-8 vs spread in the twelve before that; Bears won the last three meetings, by 30-7/28-16/41-6 scores; total yardage was 474-180 last year, but this is the more competent Harris' first Big Game. Stanford covered five of its last six games, but they're minus-7 in turnovers last two weeks. Cal lost four of last five games, as the highly-touted JC QB, Ayoob, has been a flop. Bear defense has allowed 34 ppg in last five games.

    Home side covered seven of last nine Va Tech-Virginia games, with Hokies winning four of last five (they lost last visit to this site, 35-21); none of the last five series games was won by less than 12 points. Virginia is 5-0 this season and they have senior QB; they're 1-2 as dog. Hokies got waxed by Miami in last game; they're 4-0 on road, with three wins by 17+ pts, but have turned ball over 11 times in last three games (-6).

    Fresno State has history of taking on all comers and doing well as dog, but USC has awful lot of speed. This is Bulldogs' Super Bowl, while Trojans just whacked Cal and have UCLA on the horizon, so another letdown possible here. Fresno won its last seven games (6-1 vs spread), but their only loss was 37-34 up at Oregon, in game they led, 17-0. Fresno is 20-8 vs spread in last 28 non-league games, 9-5 in last 14 tries as a road underdog.

    Georgia Tech QB Ball was 8-25/68 yards vs Miami last year, his worst-ever passing game, a 27-3 Miami win. Jackets have win at Auburn this year, but are just 2-2 on road, including 51-7 loss at Virginia Tech. Tech coach Gailey got contract extension this wk. Miami on 8-0 roll since losing opener to Florida St; they're 2-2 as home favorite this season, but have 15 takeaways in last three games, in which they outscored foes 57-7 in second half.

    phantom

    posted by phantom

    Nov. 18 2005 8:13pm

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